NexPoint Residential Trust Inc (NXRT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

My name is Dennis and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the NexPoint Residential Trust Fourth Quarter 2023 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

我叫丹尼斯，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 NexPoint 住宅信託 2023 年第四季電話會議。（操作員說明）

Again.I would now like to turn the conference over to Kristin Thomas Investor Relations.Please go ahead.

再說一次。我現在想將會議轉交給克里斯汀·托馬斯投資者關係部。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone, and welcome to NexPoint Residential Trust conference call to review the Company's results for the fourth quarter ended December 31st, 2020. But on the call today are Brian Mitts, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Matt McGraner, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, and Bonner, Executive Vice President, Asset and Investment Management.

謝謝大家，大家好，歡迎參加 NexPoint Residential Trust 電話會議，審查公司截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的第四季業績。但今天參加電話會議的有執行副總裁兼財務長 Brian Mitts、執行副總裁兼首席投資長 Matt McGraner 以及資產和投資管理執行副總裁 Bonner。

As a reminder, this call is being webcast through the Company's website at NSRT. dot net.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions and listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's most recent annual report on Form 10 K and the Company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risks and other factors that could affect any forward-looking statements.

謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在透過公司網站 NSRT 進行網路直播。點網.com。在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議包含1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期、假設，聽眾不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述.前瞻性陳述，並鼓勵您查看公司最新的 10 K 表格年度報告以及公司向 SEC 提交的其他文件，以便更全面地討論可能影響任何前瞻性陳述的風險和其他因素。

Statements made during this conference call speak only as of today's date and except as required by law.S&p does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議期間發表的聲明僅代表今天的情況，法律要求的情況除外。標準普爾不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

This conference call also includes an analysis of non-GAAP financial measures for a more complete set of these non-GAAP financial measures see the Company's earnings earnings release that was filed earlier today.I would now like to turn the call over to Brian. Please go ahead, Brian.

本次電話會議還包括對非 GAAP 財務指標的分析，以了解更完整的非 GAAP 財務指標，請參閱今天早些時候提交的公司收益報告。我現在想將電話轉給 Brian。請繼續，布萊恩。

Thank you, Kirsten, and welcome, everyone. Appreciate you. Joining this morning are Brian Mitts, and I'm also joined by Matt McGraner and Bandhan McDermott. I'll kick off the call and cover our fourth quarter and full year results and highlights update our Nav calculation and then provide initial guidance for 2024. I'll then turn it over to Matt and Bob to discuss specifics on the leasing environment and metrics driving our performance and guidance as well as details on the portfolio.

謝謝克爾斯滕，歡迎大家。感謝你。今天早上加入的有布萊恩·米茨 (Brian Mitts)，馬特·麥格拉納 (Matt McGraner) 和班丹·麥克德莫特 (Bandhan McDermott) 也加入了我。我將開始電話會議並介紹我們的第四季度和全年業績，並專注於更新我們的 Nav 計算，然後提供 2024 年的初步指導。然後，我會將其交給馬特和鮑勃，討論有關租賃環境和推動我們績效的指標的具體細節和指導以及投資組合的詳細資訊。

So let me start with the results from the fourth quarter, which are as follows. Net income for the fourth quarter was $18.4 million, or $0.7 per diluted share on total revenue of $68.9 million as compared to net income of $3.8 million or $0.15 per diluted share in the same period in 2022 on total revenue of $69.3 millio.

讓我從第四季的結果開始，如下。第四季淨利為1,840 萬美元，即稀釋後每股0.7 美元，總收入為6,890 萬美元，而2022 年同期淨利潤為380 萬美元，即稀釋後每股0.15 美元，總收入為6,930 萬美元。

For the fourth quarter NOI was $42.2 million on 38 properties as compared to $41.8 million for the fourth quarter 2022 on 40 properties and 0.9% increase in NOI. For the quarter, same-store rental income increased 3.8% and same-store occupancy was up 60 basis points to 94.7%.

第四季 38 處房產的 NOI 為 4,220 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季 40 處房產的 NOI 為 4,180 萬美元，NOI 成長了 0.9%。本季同店租金收入成長 3.8%，同店入住率成長 60 個基點至 94.7%。

This, coupled with an increase in same-store expenses of 2%, led to an increase in same-store NOI of 4.5% as compared to Q4 2022 rental income for the fourth quarter of '23 on the same-store portfolio was up 1.3% quarter over quarter from the third quarter of '23.

再加上同店費用增加 2%，導致同店 NOI 成長 4.5%，與 2022 年第四季相比，23 年第四季同店的租金收入成長了 1.3% 23 年第三季季比%。

We reported Q4 core FFO of $70.4 million, or $0.6 per diluted share, compared to $0.75 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of '22. We continue to execute our value-add business plan by completing 113 full and partial renovations during the quarter and leased 132 renovated units, achieving an average monthly rent premium of to [$214] and a 19.9% return on investment inception to date and the.

我們報告第四季度核心 FFO 為 7,040 萬美元，即稀釋後每股 0.6 美元，而 2022 年第四季稀釋後每股 0.75 美元。我們繼續執行我們的增值業務計劃，在本季度完成了 113 項全面和部分翻修，並租賃了 132 個翻修單位，實現了平均每月租金溢價 [214 美元] 和迄今為止 19.9% 的投資回報率。

Current portfolio as of 1231, we have completed 8,534 full and partial upgrades, 4,761 Kitchen and laundry appliance installations 12348 technology package installations resulting in n $169, $49 and $43 average monthly rental increase per unit and 20.9%, 64.7% and 37.8% return on investment, respectively.

截至1231 的當前投資組合，我們已完成8,534 項全面和部分升級、4,761 項廚房和洗衣設備安裝、12348 項技術包安裝，導致每單位平均每月租金增加169 美元、49 美元和43 美元，回報率分別為20.9%、64.7% 和37.8%分別投資。

Moving to the full year, full year results are as follows. Net income for the year ended December 31st was $44.3 million or $1.69 per diluted share, which included a gain on sales of real estate of $67.9 million.

轉到全年，全年業績如下。截至 12 月 31 日的年度淨利潤為 4,430 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.69 美元，其中包括 6,790 萬美元的房地產銷售收益。

This compared to a net loss of $9.3 million or negative $0.36 per diluted share for the full year 2022, which included a gain on sale of real estate of $14.7 million for the year. Noi was $167.4 million on 38 properties as compared to $157.4 million or 40 properties for the same period in 2022 for an increase of 6.3% annualized.

相較之下，2022 年全年淨虧損為 930 萬美元，即每股攤薄虧損為負 0.36 美元，其中包括當年出售房地產的收益 1,470 萬美元。Noi 擁有 38 處房產，價值 1.674 億美元，而 2022 年同期為 1.574 億美元，擁有 40 處房產，年增長率為 6.3%。

For the year, same-store rental income increased 7.1%. Same-store occupancy was up 60 basis points to 94.7%. And this coupled with an increase in same-store expenses of 5.5%, led to an increase in same-store NOI of 8.2% as compared to the full year 2022 reported core FFO in 2043 of $73.5 million or $2.80 per diluted share compared to $3.13 2022.

全年同店租金收入成長7.1%。同店入住率上升 60 個基點，達到 94.7%。再加上同店費用增加 5.5%，導致同店 NOI 較 2022 年全年增加 8.2%，2043 年核心 FFO 為 7,350 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為 2.80 美元，而稀釋後每股收益為 3.13 美元2022 年。

Since inception of the business in 2015, XRT. has generated 10.92% compound annual growth in core FFO for the fourth fourth quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.46 per share in December 29th. Since inception, we have increased our dividend 124.5% for 2023. Our dividend was 1.62 times covered by core FFO with a payout ratio of 61.6% of core FFO.

自 2015 年開展業務以來，XRT.第四季核心 FFO 的複合年增長率為 10.92%，我們於 12 月 29 日支付了每股 0.46 美元的股息。自成立以來，我們已將 2023 年股息增加了 124.5%。我們的股利是核心 FFO 的 1.62 倍，股利支付率為核心 FFO 的 61.6%。

Moving to our now have based on our current estimates of cap rates are marketed forward in a wide reporting and NAB per share range as follows $47.64 on the low end $61.23 on high end $54.43 at the midpoint.

現在，根據我們目前對上限利率的估計，在廣泛的報告和 NAB 每股範圍內進行遠期行銷，如下所示，低端為 47.64 美元，中點為 61.23 美元，高端為 54.43 美元。

These are based on average cap rates ranging from 5.5% and the low end 6% on the high end, which remained the same as last quarter and increased 60 basis points year to date. To reflect the rise in interest rates and observable increases in cap rates in our markets.

這些利率是基於從 5.5% 到高端 6% 的平均上限利率，與上季持平，今年迄今增加了 60 個基點。反映我們市場中利率的上升和資本化率的顯著上升。

For guidance will touch on our 2023 dispositions and subsequent events since 1231 September 22nd, we completed the sale. Silver broke in Dallas for gross proceeds of $70 million, representing a cap rate of 4.55%. The gain on sale was $43.1 million and $16 million of the $19.5 million. Net proceeds were used to pay down to partially pay down the corporate credit facility on September 25th.

指導將涉及我們 2023 年的處置以及自 1231 年 9 月 22 日我們完成出售以來的後續事件。白銀在達拉斯上漲，總收益為 7,000 萬美元，上限率為 4.55%。出售收益為 4,310 萬美元，1,950 萬美元中的收益為 1,600 萬美元。9 月 25 日，所得款項淨額用於支付部分企業信貸額度。

On December 13th, we completed the sale of Timber Creek Charlotte for gross proceeds of $49 million, representing a cap rate of 5.01% gain on sale of $24.8 million and $17 million at $24.5 million. Net proceeds were used to pay down the corporate credit facility on December 15th.

12 月 13 日，我們完成了 Timber Creek Charlotte 的出售，總收益為 4,900 萬美元，上限率為 5.01%，出售收益為 2,480 萬美元，出售收益為 1,700 萬美元，收益為 2,450 萬美元。12 月 15 日，所得款項淨額用於償還企業信貸額度。

We currently have two properties all farm located in Houston. I born Lake located in Charlotte under contract. We expect to close the first half of the year. The estimated net proceeds of $66.1 million will be used to fully pay down the rest of the corporate credit facility.

我們目前擁有兩處農場，全部位於休士頓。我根據合約出生在夏洛特的萊克。我們預計將在今年上半年結束。預計淨收益 6,610 萬美元將用於全額償還剩餘的企業信貸額度。

Going to guidance for 2024, we are issuing initial guidance as follows for core FFO per diluted share, $2.85 at the high end $2.60, the low end with a midpoint of $2.72 for same-store revenue, 3.9% increase on the high end, 1.1% increase on the low end with a midpoint of 2% increase.

就 2024 年的指導而言，我們針對稀釋後每股核心 FFO 發布初步指導如下，高端為 2.85 美元，低端為 2.60 美元，同店收入中點為 2.72 美元，高端增長 3.9%，1.1低端增加% ，中點增加2%。

Same-store expenses increase of 4.3% for the high end, 6% for the low end and 5.1% increase for the midpoint, which results in a same-store NOI have a 2% increase on the high end, a 2% decrease on the low end and a 0% or flat increase at the midpoint. So with that, let me turn it over to Matthew McGraner for additional account.

高端同店費用成長4.3%，低端成長6%，中端成長5.1%，導致同店NOI高端成長2%，低端下降2%低端和中點成長 0% 或持平。因此，讓我將其轉交給馬修·麥克格拉納 (Matthew McGraner) 進行補充說明。

Thanks, Brian. Let me start by going over our fourth quarter same-store operational results. Our Q4 same-store NOI margin improved to 62.5%, up 20 basis points over the prior year period. Same-store effective rents ended the quarter at $1,516 per month, up 20 basis points year over year.

謝謝，布萊恩。首先讓我回顧一下我們第四季的同店營運表現。第四季同店 NOI 利潤率提高至 62.5%，比去年同期成長 20 個基點。本季末同店有效租金為每月 1,516 美元，較去年同期成長 20 個基點。

Occupancy ended 2023 at 94.7%. That was up 60 basis points year over year. We saw sizable occupancy growth in some of our supply heavy markets as we implemented a more defensive strategy late late in the year. Atlanta and Charlotte finished the year 96.2% and 95.7%, respectively.

截至 2023 年，入住率為 94.7%。較去年同期成長 60 個基點。由於我們在今年稍後實施了更具防禦性的策略，我們在一些供應密集的市場中看到了入住率的大幅成長。亞特蘭大和夏洛特今年的完成率分別為 96.2% 和 95.7%。

While Phoenix, South Florida and Tampa all finished the year over 95% occupied. Fourth quarter same-store NOI growth was 4.5%, driven by 3.8% growth in rental revenue and 4.1% growth in total revenue. We continue to see moderating expense growth with Q4 down 2-percentage points year over year.

而鳳凰城、南佛羅裡達和坦帕今年的入住率均超過 95%。第四季同店 NOI 成長 4.5%，主要受到租金收入成長 3.8% 和總營收成長 4.1% 的推動。我們繼續看到費用成長放緩，第四季年減 2 個百分點。

Bad debt also continued to trend down and finished Q4 at 1.9%, down from 2.7% earlier in the year. Payroll declined 180 basis points in Q4, continuing the downward trend in Q2 and Q3 for repairs and maintenance. Maintenance expense growth was 5.4% in the quarter, continuing to moderate as well from often elevated post COVID comp in 2022.

壞帳也持續呈下降趨勢，第四季末為 1.9%，低於今年稍早的 2.7%。第四季薪資下降 180 個基點，延續第二季和第三季維修和維護的下降趨勢。本季維護費用成長 5.4%，與 2022 年新冠肺炎疫情後經常上升的費用相比繼續放緩。

And real estate taxes also have moderated and true-ups booked in Q4 reflect a reduction to our overall real estate taxes for the year, ending at 4.2% growth in 2023. We shifted our operational focus to higher resident retention, reducing turnover costs and furthering our effort efforts to implement AI and centralized labor.

房地產稅也有所放緩，第四季度的調整反映了我們今年整體房地產稅的減少，到 2023 年增長率為 4.2%。我們將營運重點轉向提高居民留任率、降低流動成本並進一步努力實施人工智慧和集中勞動力。

Additionally, we continue to focus on our capital efforts on reducing our overall debt. As we entered the second half of the year, our market started to see the effects of delivering record high supply, indeed, almost four decade high so positive for the year.

此外，我們繼續專注於減少整體債務的資本努力。當我們進入今年下半年時，我們的市場開始看到創紀錄的高供應量帶來的影響，事實上，近四個十年的高點對今年來說是正面的。

New lease rental rates turned negative in the second half of the year, putting stress on top line revenue growth expenses continue to moderate and our efforts to reduce further reduce turnover costs help maximize growth. Implementing a I. and centralization of labor has started to pay dividends, most notably in Q4 2023, which we will continue to improve on in 2024.

新租賃租金率在下半年轉為負數，對收入成長帶來壓力，支出持續放緩，我們努力進一步降低週轉成本，有助於實現成長最大化。實施 I. 勞動力集中化已開始帶來紅利，尤其是在 2023 年第四季度，我們將在 2024 年繼續改進。

On the occupancy front, we're pleased to report that Q4 same-store occupancy remained at over 94.7%, positioning us well for 2024. And as of this morning, the portfolio was 94.8% occupied, 96.5% leased with a healthy 60 day trend at 93.5%. 2024 for retention has also started off strong with both January and February over 50% February month to date of 59% and March is expected to finish at 60 plus percent.

在入住率方面，我們很高興地報告，第四季度同店入住率保持在 94.7% 以上，這為我們在 2024 年做好了準備。截至今天上午，投資組合已佔用 94.8%，已出租 96.5%，60 天趨勢維持在 93.5%。 2024 年的留存率也開局強勁，1 月和 2 月均超過 50%，2 月至今為 59%，3 月預計將達到 60% 以上。

Turning to full year 2023 same-store NOI performance, our full year same-store NOI margin improved by 65 basis points to 61.6%. Same-store revenues decreased or increased fees, a 7.1%, while same-store NOI registered a strong 8.2% growth year over year six of our 10 same-store markets grew at Ally by at least 7%. Notable same-store NOI growth markets for the year were South Florida, Orlando, Nashville and Tampa. As each grew NOI by 9% or more.

談到 2023 年全年同店 NOI 表現，我們全年同店 NOI 利潤率提高了 65 個基點，達到 61.6%。同店營收減少或費用增加 7.1%，而同店 NOI 較去年同期強勁成長 8.2%，我們 10 個同店市場中有 6 個在 Ally 成長了至少 7%。今年值得注意的同店 NOI 成長市場包括南佛羅裡達州、奧蘭多、納許維爾和坦帕。每個人的 NOI 都增加了 9% 或更多。

Turning to 2023, acquisitions and dispositions. Nxrt disposed of solar growth on seven on September 22nd, 2023, and Timbercreek on December 13th, 2023, the sales generated a blended 30% levered IRR at 5.28 times multiple on invested capital and $44 million in net proceeds of which, as Brian mentioned, was used to pay$33 million to pay down the drawn balance on the credit facility. We're excited to report that all farm will finally close by the end of February 2024, which will generate a 22% levered IRR at 2.99 to a multiple on invested capital and $48 million of net sales proceeds.

展望 2023 年，收購與處置。Nxrt 於2023 年9 月22 日出售了Solar Growth，並於2023 年12 月13 日出售了Timbercreek，這筆銷售產生了30% 的混合槓桿IRR，是投資資本的5.28 倍，淨收益為4400 萬美元，正如Brian 所提到的，用於支付 3300 萬美元來償還信貸額度的提取餘額。我們很高興地報告，所有農場最終將於 2024 年 2 月底關閉，這將產生 22% 的槓桿 IRR，為 2.99，是投資資本的倍數和 4800 萬美元的淨銷售收益。

We will use $24 million of the net sales proceeds and pay off the remaining drawn amount on our credit facility. We will press release the closing to close the gap on the strategic disposition. As Brian mentioned, we're also under contract to sell Red Lake, which will generate a nice 19 times excuse me, 19% levered IRR a 3.5 times multiple on invested capital and $18 million in net sales proceeds, as Brian mentioned.

我們將使用淨銷售收益中的 2,400 萬美元，並透過我們的信貸額度償還剩餘的提取金額。我們將發布結束語以縮小戰略部署上的差距。正如Brian 所提到的，我們還簽訂了出售Red Lake 的合同，這將產生19 倍的收益，19% 的槓桿IRR，投資資本的3.5 倍，以及1800 萬美元的淨銷售收益，正如Brian 提到的。

Just turning to our 2024 guidance. As Brian said, at this time, we're expecting same-store NOI growth to be relatively flat for 2024 as we enter peak supply across our same-store properties, we are forecasting 1.4% to 3.2%, Raile income growth for forecasting 1.1% to 2.8%, total revenue growth of 2.7%, controllable expense growth and 1.6% to 3.8% total expense growth.

現在轉向我們的 2024 年指導。正如 Brian 所說，目前，隨著同店物業進入供應高峰，我們預計 2024 年同店 NOI 增長將相對持平，我們預測為 1.4% 至 3.2%，Raile 預測收入增長為 1.1 %至2.8%，總收入增長2.7 %，可控制費用成長1.6%至3.8%。

We continue to be an internal growth business at our core. And to that end, our guidance includes the following assumptions regarding our value-add programs. We expect to complete 235 full interior upgrades on select assets at an average cost of $17,150 per unit generating $250 average monthly premiums or approximately 17.4% return on invested capital.

我們繼續以內部成長為核心。為此，我們的指導包括以下有關我們的增值計劃的假設。我們預計將以每台平均成本 17,150 美元完成對選定資產的 235 次全面內部升級，產生平均每月保費 250 美元或約 17.4% 的投資資本回報率。

We expect to complete 611 partial interior upgrades at an average cost of $3,910 per unit, generating $78 average monthly premiums or 24% return on investment on invested capital. This includes bespoke additions such as new stainless steel appliances, back slashes, tub enclosures and private patios. We also expect to complete 661 washer dryer installs at an average cost of $1,000 per unit, generating $57 average monthly premiums or 70% return on invested capital.

我們預計將以每套平均成本 3,910 美元完成 611 項部分內部升級，產生平均每月 78 美元的保費或 24% 的投資資本回報率。這包括客製化的附加設施，例如新的不銹鋼器具、反斜線、浴缸外殼和私人露台。我們也預計以每台平均成本 1,000 美元完成 661 台洗衣機烘乾機安裝，產生平均每月 57 美元的保費或 70% 的投資資本回報率。

Our 2024 guidance also includes the following acquisition and disposition assumptions [$0] to $200 million of acquisition guidance, which given our current cost of capital, we have prioritized balance sheet cleanup and share buybacks given our implied cap rate is north of 7% at the moment and $150 million to $300 million of dispositions.

我們的2024 年指導還包括以下收購和處置假設[0 美元] 至2 億美元的收購指導，考慮到我們當前的資本成本，我們優先考慮資產負債表清理和股票回購，因為我們的隱含資本化率在7% 以上。時刻和 1.5 億至 3 億美元的處置。

Disposition activity could reach the higher end of the range of our team can identify additional assets that can be accretively added. We have tax-efficient capital recycling strategies that we've implemented in the past. So in closing, so far in 2024, we're off to a good start prioritizing occupancy and increased resident satisfaction and retention.

處置活動可能會達到我們團隊可以識別可以增加的其他資產範圍的高端。我們過去曾實施節稅的資本回收策略。因此，總而言之，到 2024 年為止，我們在優先考慮入住率以及提高居民滿意度和保留率方面取得了良好的開端。

Our balance sheet is much healthier after materially delevering through last year's hiking cycle. So our posture to start the years defensive. We are expecting modest growth this year, specifically in the second half of the year as supply growth begins to wane.

經過去年的升息週期大幅去槓桿化後，我們的資產負債表變得更健康。所以我們的姿態要開始這幾年的防守。我們預計今年將出現溫和成長，特別是在下半年，因為供應成長開始減弱。

Our internal views that we are in the higher the supply storm, so to speak right now through the third quarter in our submarkets in 2024, for example, we see 25,100 units delivering our submarkets for 2025 numbers, more than half to 10,832 units.

我們的內部觀點認為，我們正處於供應風暴中，例如，從現在到2024 年第三季度，我們的子市場將交付25,100 套公寓，到2025 年，我們將交付25,100 套公寓，超過一半達到10,832 套。

And then in 2026, this is just under 1,000 units of new supply delivering in our submarkets across the entire company. So while we again will continue to have a defensive posture going to going starting to starting the year, we are optimistic about the portfolio's intermediate to long term growth prospects, growth prospects for that for the foreseeable future.

到 2026 年，整個公司的子市場將交付近 1,000 套新供應。因此，儘管我們將在今年年初繼續保持防禦姿態，但我們對該投資組合的中長期成長前景以及可預見的未來的成長前景持樂觀態度。

And that's all I have for prepared remarks. Thanks to our teams here at NexPoint BH for continuing to execute, and I'd like to turn the call back over to Brian.

這就是我準備好的發言。感謝 NexPoint BH 的團隊繼續執行，我想將電話轉回給 Brian。

But yes, of course, we'll live go to Q&A now.

但是，當然，我們現在將進行問答。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員說明）

Rob Stevenson, Janney.

羅布史蒂文森，珍妮。

Good morning, guys. Given you provided an EV range, how do you consider the trade-off of closing the value gap between your stock price and NAV, the buyback versus them purchasing assets with long-term appreciation?

早上好傢伙。鑑於您提供了 EV 範圍，您如何考慮縮小股價與資產淨值之間的價值差距、回購與購買長期升值資產之間的權衡？

Yes, it's Matt. It's a good question. I think the way we're thinking about it currently is we can't find any assets that we like better in the market and then our own portfolio. And again, north of a 7% implied cap rate assets that are that are being launched, so to speak or for sale, which are still few and far between are way way south of that pricing was up 7% implied cap rates.

是的，是馬特。這是一個好問題。我認為我們目前的想法是，我們在市場上找不到任何我們更喜歡的資產，然後是我們自己的投資組合。再說一次，在 7% 的隱含資本化率之上，正在推出或出售的資產仍然很少，而且距離 7% 的隱含資本化率的定價還很遠。

So as that that cap rate range continues to compress, I think you'll see us start continuing to or start being more active on the on the acquisition cycle and utilizing sort of reverse 10, 30 ones where we use our portfolio as currency, like we've done in the past year over the past 10 years by buying a deal and then selling something in our portfolio to finance it.

因此，隨著上限利率範圍繼續壓縮，我認為您會看到我們開始繼續或開始在收購週期上更加積極，並利用反向 10、30 種方式，將我們的投資組合用作貨幣，例如在過去在的十年裡，我們透過購買一筆交易，然後出售我們投資組合中的一些東西來為其融資。

Okay. And then in terms of disposition guidance, considering the sale on-farm Rabbit Lake and then Stone Creek at all farm, assuming prices are similar to old farm. It sits around $170 million with the midpoint of guidance for '24 to '25 for incremental sales likely to be assets which meet near term expiring caps and higher rates of interest?

好的。然後在處置指導方面，考慮在所有農場出售農場 Rabbit Lake 和 Stone Creek，假設價格與舊農場相似。它約為 1.7 億美元，24 至 25 年增量銷售指引的中點可能是滿足近期到期上限和更高利率的資產？

No, that's not necessarily. I think I think the the assets that we'll prioritize for disposition will be those that are requiring a heavier CapEx lift and or in the more of a supply concentrated submarket because I think we're given where we are at peak rates or at least we believe where it could be greater than we think that the greater risk to the portfolio health is yes, again, heavier CapEx or you have some markets that have oversized supply.

不，那不一定。我認為我們將優先處置的資產將是那些需要較大資本支出提升和/或在供應集中的子市場中的資產，因為我認為我們處於峰值利率或至少處於峰值水平我們認為，投資組合健康面臨的更大風險可能比我們想像的更大，是的，資本支出較大，或某些市場的供應量過大。

Okay. One last May, what are the max amount of sales you can do under the rules for '24?

好的。去年 5 月，根據「24」規則，您的最大銷售量是多少？

Off the top of my head, I'm not positive. I think to the extent that we that we utilize 1030 ones. It's a non-issue for 2024 that I do know for sure, but we can get back to you on the specific numbers.

從我的角度來看，我並不樂觀。我認為我們使用 1030 個。我確實知道這在 2024 年不會成為問題，但我們可以就具體數字向您回覆。

Okay. Thanks, guys. You bet.

好的。多謝你們。你打賭。

Linda Tsai, Jefferies. Please go ahead.

琳達·蔡，杰弗里斯。請繼續。

And Linda, your line may be on mute.

琳達，你的線路可能處於靜音狀態。

If you look in terms of disposals, how much of your portfolio would you expect to recycle to help de-lever over the?

如果您考慮處置方面，您希望回收多少投資組合來幫助去槓桿化？

I think here as we look into 2024 and 2025 from the the more likely scenario would be probably the greater portfolio sales and sort of you individually delevering once we get through the old farm sales, as I mentioned, were we're fully paid off on our credit facility and feel pretty good about feel pretty good about where the it where the capital stack sits in terms of being hedged with our [mid 90s] percent of our debt still being hedged.

我認為，當我們展望2024 年和2025 年時，更可能的情況可能是投資組合銷售更大，一旦我們完成舊農場銷售，你們就會單獨去槓桿化，正如我提到的，如果我們完全還清了我們的信貸安排，並且對資本堆疊的位置感到非常滿意，因為我們的[90年代中期]%的債務仍在對沖。

So the again, the more likely scenario, I think is just a just an outright disposition of the portfolio. But yes, in terms of in terms of incremental the de-levering? I think we're yes, I think we're at equilibrium.

因此，我認為更有可能的情況只是投資組合的徹底處置。但是，是的，就增量去槓桿而言？我認為我們是的，我認為我們處於平衡狀態。

Got it. And then when you say modest growth in the second half, which markets might you seeing return first?

知道了。那麼，當您談到下半年的溫和成長時，您可能會先看到哪些市場回歸？

Good question. So I think as it relates to the the markets are going to be tougher. Our Atlanta, Las Vegas, Tampa in the first half of the year. We do see those picking up in the latter half of the year kind of stronger markets throughout for us. We think our obviously South Florida and Orlando and Nashville, we think you're going to get better through the second half of the year?

好問題。因此，我認為與市場相關的市場將會更加艱難。我們上半年的亞特蘭大、拉斯維加斯、坦帕。我們確實看到下半年的回升對我們來說是一個更強勁的市場。我們認為我們顯然是南佛羅裡達州、奧蘭多和納許維爾，我們認為下半年會變得更好？

And last question, just on Atlanta. Any updates there on kind of fraudulent activity and what's your bad debt expectation for year end?

最後一個問題是關於亞特蘭大的。有關詐欺活動的最新情況以及您對年底壞帳的預期是多少？

Yes, it's improved from a in terms of in terms of where it was last year was over almost almost 3%. We're seeing it down at the end of January at 1.7%-1.8%. And underwriting, basically you have call it a two, a 2% expectation for the year in Atlanta and that we expect to be one of the one of the higher bad debt markets, obviously, but it has incrementally improved over the past couple of months and the trend in January is encouraging because given holiday season and the start of the year, sometimes you have a little bit of a lag of bad debt. So we are not out of woods yet, but do feel better about it.

是的，與去年相比，成長了近 3%。我們預計 1 月底會下降 1.7%-1.8%。核保方面，基本上你稱之為亞特蘭大今年的 2% 預期，我們預計將成為壞帳率較高的市場之一，顯然，但在過去幾個月裡，情況已逐步改善一月份的趨勢令人鼓舞，因為考慮到假期和年初，有時壞帳會出現一些延遲。所以我們還沒有脫離困境，但確實感覺好多了。

Thank you. Conor Peaks, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

謝謝。康納峰，德意志銀行。請繼續。

I think you on the value add program and you touched on in your opening remarks, could you compare redevelopment activity you're expecting in 2024 versus 2023? And if there's any expected difference in our wider redevelopment mix Thanks.

我認為您在開場白中談到了增值計劃，您能否比較一下您預計 2024 年和 2023 年的重建活動？如果我們更廣泛的重建組合有任何預期的差異，謝謝。

Now I'll turn the specifics of 2023 over to over to Bonner to compare year over year. And my recollection is roughly at over 1,000 units for full upgrade last year versus a couple of couple of hundred or so this year, the other part?

現在我將把 2023 年的具體情況交給邦納進行逐年比較。我記得去年大約有 1000 多台進行全面升級，而今年則有幾百台左右，另一部分呢？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, right. So yes, as we look at the portfolio, understanding the softness, the supply in the market. As you know, we're pushing $200, $250 premiums in a market where new supply is for $500 involves we're getting a little bit of a difficult more difficult time getting that demand.

是的，沒錯。所以，是的，當我們審視投資組合時，了解市場的疲軟和供應。如您所知，我們在新供應價格為 500 美元的市場中推高了 200 美元、250 美元的溢價，這涉及到我們要獲得這種需求會變得更加困難。

So for now, as Matt mentioned on the call, we prioritize a shift to occupancy for the year and are really focused on achievement of occupancy falls. We've downsized the ball at the base case for full upgrade to 235 units.

因此，正如馬特在電話會議上提到的那樣，目前我們優先考慮轉向今年的入住率，並且真正專注於實現入住率下降。我們縮小了底座處球的尺寸，全面升級至 235 個單元。

100 of those are a number of times. The demand at that asset individually is the special we're getting $300 premium very easily, and it's more a function of just flow over the demand across the rest of the portfolio, we're asset-by-asset.

其中 100 是多次。該資產的單獨需求是特殊的，我們很容易獲得 300 美元的溢價，而且它更多的是流過投資組合其餘部分的需求的函數，我們是逐個資產的。

So yes, in a market where we're not getting trade out, we're not doing a full brand now for finding areas of those properties where we can drive value. So in a market where we may have first generation upgrade, we can go back through and stainless steel appliance package of data flash as a private patio or things like that. We're adding value there.

所以，是的，在一個我們無法進行交易的市場中，我們現在並沒有做一個完整的品牌來尋找那些我們可以推動價值的房產領域。因此，在我們可能進行第一代升級的市場中，我們可以返回數據快閃記憶體的不銹鋼設備包作為私人露台或類似的東西。我們正在那裡增加價值。

But overall, year over year, we were forecast to do about 1,300 units in 2023, 235 for this year. Shifting that focus. And we're pretty proud to report that we're 96% leased today. I think you're seeing that come to fruition and work out the numbers.

但總體而言，我們預計 2023 年產量約為 1,300 輛，今年為 235 輛。轉移焦點。我們非常自豪地宣布，今天 96% 已出租。我想你已經看到了這一成果併計算出了數字。

Expected goods on that I'd just add to expecting the 17.5% RO., I think compares just modestly down from last year. I believe it's 19% or 20%. So still getting that the high ROIs.

預期的商品，我只是補充了 17.5% RO 的預期，我認為與去年相比略有下降。我相信是19%或20%。所以還是可以獲得高投資報酬率。

Got it. Thank you. That's it for me.

知道了。謝謝。對我來說就是這樣。

Buck Horne, Raymond James. Please go ahead.

巴克·霍恩，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。請繼續。

Your mortgage bank. Just wondering if I'm maybe I missed it, if you could just specifically break down what the new leasing, what the average new lease spread was during the fourth quarter and maybe as of January and kind of what renewal breads were and just kind of break down all of that as it blends together?

您的抵押貸款銀行。只是想知道我是否可能錯過了它，您是否可以具體細分一下新的租賃情況，第四季度的平均新租賃價差是多少，也許截至一月份以及續訂麵包是什麼，只是有點當它們混合在一起時分解所有這些？

Yes, sure. But I think thanks for the question on new leases were down blended for the quarter, 7.8% and then renewals were just 21 basis points for blended when you average the blended negative four point or excuse me, negative 4.14%.

是的，當然。但我認為，感謝有關本季新租約下降的問題，混合下降了 7.8%，然後當你平均混合負 4 個點或對不起，負 4.14% 時，混合續租僅下降了 21 個基點。

January's has looked better. So the new leases were down 6.25% renewables or 40 basis points for a blended at negative 2.69%. And so we are we are seeing a little bit better as we filled up the filled up the assets and have a strong occupancy base which was the which was the goal.

一月看起來好多了。因此，再生能源的新租賃下降了 6.25%，即下降了 40 個基點，混合後下降了 2.69%。因此，當我們填滿資產並擁有強大的入住基礎時，我們看到情況有所好轉，這就是我們的目標。

Got it. That's helpful. Appreciate the color there. Are you are you guys using concessions in the market or what are average concessions right now? For competitive Class B properties? Or what's the what are the market conditions out there right now?

知道了。這很有幫助。欣賞那裡的顏色。你們正在使用市場上的優惠嗎？或者現在的平均優惠是多少？想要有競爭力的 B 級房產？或者說現在的市場狀況如何？

Yes, I'll start and I'll kick it to bond and add to that. I'd say that for us for our assets, in particular and in the submarkets, we really we really bought occupancy in the fourth quarter.

是的，我會開始，我會踢它以粘合並添加。我想說的是，對於我們的資產來說，特別是在子市場，我們確實在第四季度購買了入住率。

That was a that was a priority of ours and so we were we were roughly giving you a blended cost of blending concession in the market that we're seeing is about a month as or as a YieldStar fabric with share in India.

這是我們的首要任務，因此我們粗略地為您提供了市場上混合特許權的混合成本，我們看到大約一個月作為或作為 YieldStar 面料在印度的份額。

I think as we sit here today, we still think that we're we need to be defensive through the first and second quarter as supply deliveries as their gaming and new assets are giving sometimes two or three months. But we again expect that to wane during the during the third quarter market aiding that.

我認為，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們仍然認為我們需要在第一和第二季度保持防禦性，因為他們的遊戲和新資產有時需要兩到三個月的時間來交付供應。但我們再次預計，這種情況將在第三季市場減弱，有助於這一點。

Yes, I think I think as we look at it, look at what we did in the fourth quarter, we had to give to concessions and a couple of markets where you've got more supply pressure. Charlotte comes to mind, Las Vegas and a lot of those concessions are a month free for us when the new supply is offering a couple of months free rent or the prospect is looking for a little bit of a discount.

是的，我認為當我們審視它時，看看我們在第四季度所做的事情，我們必須做出讓步，並在幾個供應壓力更大的市場上做出讓步。我想到了夏洛特、拉斯維加斯，當新供應提供幾個月的免費租金或潛在客戶正在尋求一點折扣時，我們可以免費享受一個月的優惠。

So some of those markets where we were a little light on occupancy in Q3, we utilized concessions.

因此，對於第三季入住率較低的一些市場，我們採取了優惠措施。

In Q4 to help build that churn as we look here at 2020 for the bulk of the concession. But think it's not a it's not a big number, it's call it 20 basis points and CPR.

在我們展望 2020 年時，將在第四季度幫助增加客戶流失率，以獲得大部分優惠。但想想這不是一個很大的數字，它被稱為 20 個基點和 CPR。

We typically utilize the dynamic pricing model and focus more on that. But the concessions are more heavy in the first quarter and overall this year, I think our concessions has probably come down some based on were 97% leased today. I think our focus on retention, you see that in the renewal trade out being more defensive there. And I think that that should prove out we should not need as many concessions toward the back half.

我們通常使用動態定價模型並更加關注這一點。但今年第一季和今年整體的優惠幅度更大，我認為基於今天 97% 的出租率，我們的優惠力度可能有所下降。我認為我們的重點是留住人才，你會發現在續約交易中我們的防守更具防禦性。我認為這應該證明我們不需要在後半場做出那麼多讓步。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Michael Lewis, Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

邁克爾劉易斯，Truist 證券公司。請繼續。

Great. Thank you from me, but I think they're kind of a consensus about peak new supply sometime around mid-year, and you talked about that a little bit in some of your markets, some I think it's a little tougher to forecast the demand side. I was just wondering if you had to do a job growth forecast built into your guidance and what you kind of think on that on the demand side when you were putting together those ranges?

偉大的。謝謝我，但我認為他們對年中某個時候的新供應高峰達成了共識，你在一些市場上談到了這一點，我認為預測需求有點困難。我只是想知道您是否必須在您的指導中進行就業成長預測，以及當您將這些範圍放在一起時，您對需求方面有何看法？

Yes. I mean, we do we utilize a largely real page, yes, as a consultant to walk through quarterly demand and job good crop prospects in all of our submarkets. And one thing that was a little bit encouraging this year is that they do expect to see absorption kind of kind of be maintained across the across our submarkets, not yet not enough to outstrip yet the four decade high of supply is peaking this year, but it's still yes, the job growth forecasts are factored into or are factored into those numbers, and we'd be happy to share those with you.

是的。我的意思是，我們確實利用了一個基本上真實的頁面，是的，作為顧問來了解我們所有子市場的季度需求和就業良好的作物前景。今年有點令人鼓舞的一件事是，他們確實預計我們的子市場的吸收量會得到某種程度的維持，但還不足以超過今年四十年高點的供應量，但是仍然是的，就業成長預測已考慮或已考慮到這些數字中，我們很樂意與您分享這些數據。

And then just lastly for me, it's part of your strategy to use the variable rate, property debt and hedges and that that's helpful with the with the renovation strategy kind of all fits together, Tom, you talked about selling assets and delevering should we expect we're calculating net debt to EBITDA. That's still around 10 times. So maybe a little bit north of that, I don't know.

最後對我來說，使用可變利率、房地產債務和對沖是您策略的一部分，這對於將所有內容結合在一起的翻新策略很有幫助，湯姆，您談到了出售資產和去槓桿化，我們應該期待嗎？我們正在計算 EBITDA 的淨債務。這仍然是 10 倍左右。所以也許有點偏北，我不知道。

Have you maybe talk a little bit about how you look at the leverage and kind of what the endgame is here, right? So I'm trying to think about forecasting out dispositions of how much you want to delever and what the leverage it should be for this strategy. Right.

您是否可以談談您如何看待槓桿作用以及最終的結果，對嗎？因此，我正在嘗試考慮預測您想要去槓桿化的程度以及策略的槓桿作用應該是多少。正確的。

And I think it makes sense you might have elevated leverage because your strategy is a little bit different than some of your peers, but do you have a target leverage or kind of an endgame with the dispositions and and paying down debt?

我認為你提高槓桿率是有道理的，因為你的策略與一些同行有點不同，但你是否有目標槓桿率或某種最終的處置和償還債務？

Yes, it's a great question. And one that we consider or talk about it often. So I think I think my overall view on this is more about notwithstanding last year because everything that could go wrong last year went wrong beyond peak, just rapid hiking cycle supply, bad debt fraud, everything, which is kitchen sink. And so as we look and look into 2024, 2025 at a more normalized, hopefully, more normalized capital markets environment?

是的，這是一個很好的問題。這是我們經常考慮或談論的問題。所以我認為我認為我對此的總體看法更多的是儘管去年，因為去年可能出錯的所有事情都超出了峰值，只是快速增長的周期供應，壞賬欺詐，一切，這是廚房水槽。那麼，當我們展望 2024 年、2025 年時，資本市場環境是否會更正常化？

Yes, a lot of us think that we're at peak rates. So we consider, for example, putting more swaps on this year. But yes, if we did that, it would be at peak rates. So I think the better the better way that we think about it is making sure that our portfolio is as liquid as possible at any given time in any given year.

是的，我們很多人都認為我們正處於高峰期。因此，我們考慮今年進行更多掉期。但是，是的，如果我們這樣做，那將會達到高峰。因此，我認為我們考慮的方式越好，確保我們的投資組合在任何特定年份的任何特定時間都盡可能具有流動性。

And given the GSE financings, the Class B liquidity in the market from these portfolios will trade again will trade again at competitive cap rates and the worse in our view that one of the worst things we can do is to go out and fix debt or fixed debt today at, you know, potentially peak rates because the new buyer or a buyer of our portfolio at some point will likely have a better cost of capital or a different cost of capital so that our that's the way we think about it, you get in improve the asset sell and recycle that capital and continue to can continue to do that.

考慮到GSE 融資，這些投資組合的市場B 類流動性將再次以有競爭力的上限利率進行交易，我們認為更糟糕的是，我們能做的最糟糕的事情之一就是出去修復債務或修復債務。今天的債務，你知道，可能是峰值利率，因為新買家或我們投資組合的買家在某個時候可能會有更好的資本成本或不同的資本成本，所以我們就是這樣考慮的，你得到在改善資產出售和回收資本方面，我們可以繼續這樣做。

Our hope is this year, we'll be able to potentially find a couple of assets later in the year to recycle capital into and putting less leverage on that replacement asset is a strategy that we've employed in the past that tanker many incrementally delever some.

我們的希望是，今年晚些時候，我們將能夠在今年晚些時候找到一些資產來回收資本，並減少對替代資產的槓桿作用，這是我們過去採用的策略，許多油輪逐漸去槓桿化一些。

And then you add that going into 25 and 26, if yes, what if things play out the way they are and supply wanes and there's no new start starts down 40% year over year. We think our pricing power will be some will be higher. I think demand for our units will be higher, and that could potentially translate into either more value for assets when we sell or return to being able to raise equity ourselves. And so at that point, I think that we'll look to delever.

然後你補充說，進入25和26年，如果是的話，如果事情按照現在的方式發展，供應減少，沒有新的開工，同比下降40%，該怎麼辦？我們認為我們的定價能力會更高一些。我認為對我們單位的需求將會更高，當我們出售或恢復能夠自行籌集股本時，這可能會轉化為更高的資產價值。因此，到那時，我認為我們將尋求去槓桿化。

Is it fair to say, I mean, it sounds like it's kind of a property by property fluid situation. You're not looking at this and saying, you know, the right leverage for this strategy is a time sort of the right strategy is maybe you look at debt to gross asset value or something it sounds it's more kind of a moving target depending on the market there.

公平地說，我的意思是，這聽起來像是一種逐一財產的流動情況。你不會看著這個說，你知道，這個策略的正確槓桿是一種時間，正確的策略可能是你看看債務與總資產價值之比，或者聽起來更像是一個移動目標，取決於那裡的市場。

Yes. I mean, look, before we were yes, before we got hit with the yes, the 500 basis point increases of interest rates in 12, 14 months, we were we took the portfolio down from 14, 15 times when we went public in 2015 down to kind of where it is today and that was a yes, that was intentional and it is intentional.

是的。我的意思是，看，在我們說「是」之前，在我們受到「是」的打擊之前，在12、14 個月內利率上漲500 個基點之前，我們將投資組合從2015 年上市時的14 、15 次下調了直到今天，這是肯定的，這是故意的，這是故意的。

We still want to delever incrementally, but it excluding last year, our investors who we who we speak to often didn't want to see us go raise equity to pay down debt 2% to 3% debt at the time. And so again, every day that could go wrong went wrong last year and where our balance sheet's about as healthy as healthy as it's ever been, especially after we close old farm next week and have fresh capital on the balance sheet to go buy back stock or pay down debt, and we'll make that decision.

我們仍然希望逐步去槓桿化，但不包括去年，我們經常與之交談的投資者不希望看到我們當時透過籌集股本來償還 2% 至 3% 的債務。再說一次，去年每一天都可能出錯，我們的資產負債表和以往一樣健康，尤其是在我們下週關閉舊農場並在資產負債表上有新的資本來回購股票之後或者償還債務，我們將做出決定。

There's a couple there's a couple of properties that we can just take the leverage off and have an unencumbered property or two, but that's yes, it isn't it. We do want to delever. But to do it wholesale right now is not what we think is best eMeta Thank you.

有一些房產我們可以取消槓桿並擁有一兩處無負擔的房產，但事實並非如此。我們確實想要去槓桿化。但我們認為現在批發不是最好的選擇，謝謝 eMeta。

Thanks, one. Yes.

謝謝，一個。是的。

And at this time, there appear to be no further questions. I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

而這時候，似乎已經沒有更多的問題了。現在，我將把電話轉回給管理階層，讓他們發表結束語。

Yes, I don't know if this thing further demos, though, I appreciate everyone's time today and again, things thanks to our team here and at BH. With that, we'll open the call and we'll look to talk to you after the first quarter.

是的，我不知道這個東西是否會進一步演示，不過，我非常感謝大家今天一次又一次抽出時間，感謝我們這裡和 BH 的團隊。這樣，我們將開始通話，我們將在第一季後與您交談。

Thank you all for joining today's conference call. You may now disconnect. And with that, we'll end the call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。這樣，我們就結束通話了。