諾威品牌 (NWL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Newell Brands' Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being recorded. A live webcast of this call is available at ir.newellbrands.com.

早安，歡迎參加 Newell Brands 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的電話會議正在錄音。本次電話會議的網路直播可在 ir.newellbrands.com 上觀看。

I will now turn the call over to Sofya Tsinis, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Tsinis, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Sofya Tsinis。齊尼斯女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Newell Brands' Third Quarter Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Chris Peterson, our President and CEO; and Mark Erceg, our CFO. Before we begin, I'd like to inform you that during the course of today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results and outcomes may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements. I refer you to the cautionary language and risk factors available in our earnings release, our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for further discussion of the factors affecting forward-looking statements.

謝謝。大家，早安。歡迎參加 Newell Brands 第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Peterson；和我們的財務長馬克‧埃爾塞格 (Mark Erceg)。在開始之前，我想通知您，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，其中涉及風險和不確定性。實際結果和成果可能有重大差異，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。我建議您參閱我們的收益報告、Form 10-K、Form 10-Q 以及投資者關係網站上提供的其他 SEC 文件中提供的警示性語言和風險因素，以進一步討論影響前瞻性陳述的因素。

Please also recognize that today's remarks will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including those we refer to as normalized measures. We believe these non-GAAP measures are useful to investors, although they should not be considered superior to the measures presented in accordance with GAAP. Explanations of these non-GAAP measures and available reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in today's earnings release and tables that were furnished to the SEC. Thank you, and now I'll turn the call over to Chris.

另請注意，今天的言論將涉及某些非公認會計準則財務指標，包括我們所謂的標準化指標。我們相信這些非公認會計原則措施對投資者有用，儘管它們不應被視為優於根據公認會計原則提出的措施。這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的解釋以及 GAAP 和非 GAAP 衡量標準之間的可用調整可以在今天向 SEC 提供的收益報告和表格中找到。謝謝您，現在我將把電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Sofya. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter call. We had mixed results in the third quarter. We made significant progress delivering against the 5 major priorities we established at the start of the year as well as deploying and actioning the new integrated corporate strategy. At the same time, we were disappointed, core sales declined 9.2% during the quarter.

謝謝你，索菲亞。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們的第三季電話會議。我們第三季的業績好壞參半。我們在年初制定的 5 個主要優先事項以及部署和實施新的綜合企業策略方面取得了重大進展。同時，我們感到失望，本季核心銷售額下降了 9.2%。

Let me take these each in turn, starting with the 5 priorities we laid out at the start of the year. First, year-to-date, we delivered excellent results on operating cash flow, which improved more than $1.2 billion versus last year, largely due to significant progress on inventory reduction. The stronger-than-anticipated performance thus far has given us confidence to raise our outlook on cash flow for the full year.

讓我依序討論這些問題，從我們年初制定的 5 個優先事項開始。首先，今年迄今為止，我們在經營現金流方面取得了出色的成果，與去年相比增加了超過 12 億美元，這主要歸功於庫存減少的重大進展。迄今為止強於預期的業績讓我們有信心上調全年現金流前景。

Second, during the third quarter, gross margin reached an inflection point, expanding 170 basis points year-over-year with the fuel productivity program along with pricing serving as the driving force. We continue to expect record productivity savings in 2023 with year-over-year gross margin improvement continuing into the fourth quarter. Third, we've completed the Project Phoenix organization design changes with all markets moving to the One Newell approach. We are on track to realize $140 million to $160 million of pretax savings this year and $220 million to $250 million on an annualized basis.

其次，在燃料生產力計畫和定價的推動下，第三季毛利率達到拐點，年增170個基點。我們仍預期 2023 年生產力將創歷史新高，毛利率年比改善將持續到第四季。第三，我們已經完成了「鳳凰計畫」組織設計變更，所有市場都轉向「One Newell」方法。今年我們預計將稅前節省 1.4 億至 1.6 億美元，年化節省 2.2 億至 2.5 億美元。

Fourth, we are moving at pace with the simplification and SKU count reduction work across the organization and are on track to end the year with less than 25,000 SKUs, down from about 28,000 last year and over 100,000 at the end of 2018. Finally, the new operating model with 3 segments, a centralized manufacturing and supply chain and a One Newell approach with our top 4 customers and across the geographies, is now fully in place and starting to pay dividends. The most concrete example of how we are already creating leveraging scale under One Newell approach is the difficult but necessary actions taken during the third quarter to rightsize the manufacturing labor force across selected sites. Those actions which would have not been possible previously due to the way Newell was organized are expected to yield about $50 million in annualized cost savings.

第四，我們正在加快整個組織的簡化和 SKU 數量減少工作，並預計在年底時 SKU 數量少於 25,000 個，低於去年的約 28,000 個，到 2018 年底將超過 100,000 個。包含3 個細分市場、集中製造和供應鏈以及與我們的4 大客戶和跨地區的One Newell 方法的新營運模式現已完全到位並開始帶來紅利。我們如何在「One Newell」方法下創造槓桿規模的最具體例子是第三季採取的困難但必要的行動，以調整選定地點的製造業勞動力規模。這些行動在以前由於 Newell 的組織方式而不可能實現，預計每年可節省約 5000 萬美元的成本。

The challenging macroeconomic background continued to weigh on Newell's top line during the third quarter, reflecting soft demand for discretionary and durable products amidst persistent inflation on everyday goods, normalization and category trends post-COVID, tight inventory management by retailers, as well as the unfavorable impact from the bankruptcy of Bed Bath & Beyond. We estimate that about 80% of the sales decline was driven by category declines and retailer inventory actions. However, there was a meaningful portion of our sales compression that traces back to gaps in our front-end consumer-facing capabilities or was the direct result of the July 1 pricing actions we took to proactively address situations where our structural economics were untenable.

第三季度，充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟背景繼續給紐厄爾的營收帶來壓力，反映出日常用品持續通膨、疫情後的正常化和品類趨勢、零售商嚴格的庫存管理以及不利的情況下，非必需品和耐用品的需求疲軟。 Bed Bath & Beyond 破產的影響。我們估計約 80% 的銷售額下降是由品類下降和零售商庫存行動造成的。然而，我們的銷售壓縮中有一個有意義的部分可以追溯到我們面向消費者的前端能力的差距，或者是我們為主動解決結構性經濟學難以維持的情況而採取的7 月1 日定價行動的直接結果。

That is why since my appointment in May, we have placed so much emphasis on developing a robust set of corporate, business unit, functional and brand-specific strategies, all of which were fully informed by our brutally honest capability assessment to guide our approach in the years ahead. At its core, our new strategy focuses on improving the company's consumer-facing capabilities while distorting investment to our top 25 brands in top 10 markets and building on the strengthened operational and organizational foundation we have built over the past several years.

這就是為什麼自從我五月上任以來，我們非常重視制定一套強大的公司、業務部門、職能和品牌特定策略，所有這些策略都充分基於我們殘酷誠實的能力評估，以指導我們的方法未來的歲月。我們的新策略的核心是提高公司面向消費者的能力，同時扭曲對前 10 個市場中前 25 個品牌的投資，並建立在我們過去幾年建立的強化營運和組織基礎之上。

Following the deployment of our new strategy in June, we've taken decisive actions to bring the new strategy to life in several ways. First, to put consumer understanding and insights at the center of everything we do, we've reinvented the consumer insight function and overhauled Newell's innovation process around the biannual review process. This new process has been established to identify strong consumer-driven propositions on our top 25 brands with a focus on creating fewer, bigger and longer-lasting innovations that are gross margin accretive as part of a comprehensive tiered product launch system designed to get consumer-relevant innovation into market faster.

繼六月部署新戰略後，我們採取了果斷行動，透過多種方式將新戰略付諸實踐。首先，為了將消費者的理解和洞察置於我們所做的一切的中心，我們重新發明了消費者洞察功能，並圍繞每年兩次的審核流程徹底改革了 Newell 的創新流程。這個新流程的建立是為了在我們的25 個頂級品牌中確定強大的消費者驅動主張，重點是創造更少、更大和更持久的創新，這些創新可以增加毛利率，作為全面的分層產品發布系統的一部分，旨在吸引消費者－相關創新更快進入市場。

Consistent with this and to ensure we are being choiceful in driving the strategy into execution, we are taking swift action relative to the exit of smaller noncore brands. We are moving at pace and expect to finish the year with a tighter, more focused brand portfolio comprised of about 60 master brands versus 80 at the start of this year.

與此一致，並確保我們在推動策略執行方面有選擇性，我們正在針對較小的非核心品牌的退出採取迅速行動。我們正在加快步伐，預計到今年年底，我們將擁有一個更緊湊、更集中的品牌組合，其中包括約 60 個主品牌，而今年年初為 80 個。

Second, to dramatically improve brand building and brand communication and as we strive to build brand management into a foundational capability, we replaced close to half of Newell's brand managers over the past several months and put exceptional performance standards in place, which set clear KPI-driven expectations for all brand managers going forward. In addition, we recently implemented important changes to the process and structure of our marketing and digital organizations to unlock quicker decision-making, drive accountability and improve our ability to drive stronger purchase intent across our top 25 brands.

其次，為了大幅改善品牌建立和品牌傳播，並努力將品牌管理打造成一項基礎能力，我們在過去幾個月更換了近一半的Newell 品牌經理，並製定了卓越的績效標準，其中設定了明確的KPI-推動了所有品牌經理未來的期望。此外，我們最近對行銷和數位組織的流程和結構進行了重要變革，以加快決策速度、推動問責制並提高我們在 25 個頂級品牌中推動更強購買意向的能力。

Third, key members of Newell's sales team have been tasked with leading new business development, where they will leverage Newell's scale and extensive portfolio of leading brands to identify and pursue incremental distribution opportunities within new accounts, while the bulk of our selling resources will continue to maintain their focus on strengthening our partnerships and increasing distribution with existing customers. Finally, to properly cascade Newell's integrated set of corporate wear to play and how to win choices, along with the new segment function and top 25 brand strategies, key members of the leadership team and I have now visited 8 of Newell's top 10 countries across North America, Europe and Latin America. Based in part on those interactions, we have decided to bring in new, strong talent to fill crucial roles across several of Newell's businesses and geographies. For example, we recently hired new leaders for the Home Fragrance and Kitchen businesses as well as new heads of Europe and France.

第三，Newell 銷售團隊的主要成員負責領導新業務開發，他們將利用 Newell 的規模和廣泛的領先品牌組合來識別和尋求新客戶中的增量分銷機會，而我們的大部分銷售資源將繼續他們繼續專注於加強我們的合作夥伴關係並增加與現有客戶的分銷。最後，為了正確串聯紐厄爾的一套企業著裝綜合玩法以及如何贏得選擇，以及新的細分功能和25強品牌戰略，我和領導團隊的主要成員現在已經訪問了紐厄爾北部10個國家中的8個國家。美洲、歐洲和拉丁美洲。部分基於這些互動，我們決定引進新的、強大的人才來填補紐厄爾多個業務和地區的關鍵職位。例如，我們最近聘請了家用香水和廚房業務的新領導以及歐洲和法國的新負責人。

Before turning the call over to Mark, I'd like to provide a little perspective on the back-to-school season since that's always an area of interest. While predictions for the back-to-school season varied widely across the industry, in aggregate, the categories where Newell competes declined modestly with stronger market performance from retailers that put their support behind leading brands versus those that focused on private label offerings. Against this backdrop, several of our major brands such as Sharpie and EXPO grew market share, which we were excited to see. That said, gaining share in a down market is not a prescription for long-term success. That's why we are already incorporating the learnings from this season, the most important of which is the role our leading brands can play in driving category growth into next year's back-to-school plans with leading retailers.

在將電話轉給馬克之前，我想提供一些關於返校季節的看法，因為這始終是一個令人感興趣的領域。儘管整個行業對返校季節的預測差異很大，但總體而言，Newell 競爭的類別略有下降，因為支持領先品牌的零售商與專注於自有品牌產品的零售商相比，其市場表現更為強勁。在此背景下，我們很高興看到 Sharpie 和 EXPO 等幾個主要品牌的市佔率有所成長。也就是說，在低迷的市場中獲得份額並不是長期成功的良方。這就是為什麼我們已經將本季的經驗教訓納入其中，其中最重要的是我們的領先品牌在推動品類成長方面可以發揮的作用，並將其納入與領先零售商的明年返校計劃中。

While there are parts of Newell's portfolio where we are gaining share, that's not the case broadly. This highlights why we needed to make a major pivot in the company's front-end strategy. While we are dissatisfied with our current sales performance, we did say at the Deutsche Bank Conference in June that we expected our top line performance to be below our evergreen target of low single digits for the next 4 to 6 quarters. Beyond that and as the bulk of our new capabilities ramp up, we remain fully committed to returning the company to top line growth.

雖然我們在紐厄爾投資組合的某些部分獲得了份額，但情況並非如此。這凸顯了為什麼我們需要對公司的前端策略進行重大調整。雖然我們對目前的銷售業績不滿意，但我們在 6 月的德意志銀行會議上確實表示，我們預計未來 4 到 6 個季度的營收業績將低於我們的低個位數的常青目標。除此之外，隨著我們大部分新能力的增強，我們仍然完全致力於使公司恢復營收成長。

Back in June and during our last earnings call, we also reiterated that our top financial priorities for 2023 were strengthening cash flow and improving gross margin, and very good progress is being made on both of those fronts. So while there are certainly much more work to do ahead of us, the strategy is starting to take shape. That's why we are confident that this year, free cash flow productivity will exceed our evergreen target of about 90% and the business will continue to improve sequentially next year as measured by gross margin expansion and the number of top 25 brands growing market share.

早在 6 月份，在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們也重申，我們 2023 年的首要財務重點是加強現金流和提高毛利率，並且在這兩個方面都取得了非常好的進展。因此，儘管我們面前肯定還有很多工作要做，但該策略已開始成形。這就是為什麼我們有信心今年自由現金流生產力將超過我們約 90% 的常青目標，並且以毛利率擴張和市場份額增長的 25 個品牌數量來衡量，明年業務將繼續環比改善。

As we operationalize and execute our new strategy to significantly improve our financial performance, we have been laser-focused on implementing the organizational, operational and cultural changes required to strengthen the company's front-end consumer-facing capabilities while harnessing the scale and power of One Newell. While the path forward will not be a straight line, we remain confident Newell's financial performance will improve and significant value will be created over time for our stakeholders.

在我們實施和執行新策略以顯著改善財務表現的過程中，我們一直專注於實施所需的組織、營運和文化變革，以加強公司前端面向消費者的能力，同時利用 One 的規模和力量。紐厄爾.雖然前進的道路不會是一條直線，但我們仍然相信 Newell 的財務表現將會改善，並且隨著時間的推移將為我們的利害關係人創造巨大的價值。

I would like to thank our leaders and employees for their hard work, perseverance and dedication amidst significant organization changes and for their unwavering commitment to our purpose of delighting consumers by lighting up everyday moments. I'll now hand the call over to Mark.

我要感謝我們的領導者和員工在重大組織變革中的辛勤工作、堅持不懈和奉獻精神，以及他們對我們透過點亮日常生活來取悅消費者這一目標的堅定承諾。我現在將電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Third quarter net sales and core sales both declined approximately 9% largely due to the same macroeconomic headwinds we've been wrestling with since the third quarter of last year. However, on a more positive note, we continue to make significant progress improving the structural economics of the business during Q3 with Newell's normalized gross margin improving 170 basis points versus last year and 140 basis points sequentially to 31.3%. A 500 basis point contribution from fuel productivity savings and meaningful pricing actions taken across roughly 30% of our U.S. business, primarily in the Home & Commercial space, more than offsets the significant headwinds from inflation and fixed cost absorption.

謝謝，克里斯。大家，早安。第三季淨銷售額和核心銷售額均下降約 9%，這主要是由於我們自去年第三季以來一直在應對的宏觀經濟逆風。然而，從更積極的角度來看，我們在第三季度繼續在改善業務結構經濟方面取得重大進展，Newell 的正常化毛利率比去年提高了170 個基點，比上一季度提高了140 個基點，達到31.3%。我們約 30% 的美國業務（主要是家庭和商業領域）的燃油生產率節省和有意義的定價行動帶來了 500 個基點的貢獻，這足以抵消通貨膨脹和固定成本吸收的重大阻力。

Despite excellent productivity work by the team as well as strong savings from Project Phoenix, which amounted to $49 million in the quarter, normalized operating margin contracted 220 basis points versus last year to 8.2%. Most of the contraction in third quarter normalized operating margin was driven by higher incentive compensation charges. As you may recall, incentive compensation was revised sharply lower during Q3 last year, making current period comparisons very difficult.

儘管團隊的生產力工作非常出色，「鳳凰計畫」在本季度節省了 4,900 萬美元，但正常營運利潤率仍比去年下降了 220 個基點，降至 8.2%。第三季正常營業利潤率的收縮主要是由於激勵補償費用增加所致。您可能還記得，去年第三季的激勵薪酬大幅下調，使得當前時期的比較變得非常困難。

During the third quarter, net interest expense increased $12 million versus last year to $69 million, due solely to higher interest rates because, the net debt was down nearly $500 million year-over-year and down nearly $400 million year-to-date. The discrete tax benefit originally expected in the fourth quarter was captured in the third quarter, yielding a normalized tax benefit of $73 million, which in combination with the other elements we just went over, brought normalized diluted earnings per share in at $0.39 and drove a significant upside in normalized earnings per share relative to the $0.20 to $0.24 outlook previously provided.

第三季度，淨利息支出比去年增加了 1,200 萬美元，達到 6,900 萬美元，這完全是由於利率上升所致，因為淨債務同比減少了近 5 億美元，年初至今減少了近 4 億美元。最初預期在第四季度獲得的離散稅收優惠在第三季度得到了體現，產生了7300 萬美元的標準化稅收優惠，這與我們剛剛討論的其他因素相結合，使標準化稀釋每股收益達到0.39 美元，並推動了相對於之前提供的 0.20 至 0.24 美元的前景，正常化每股收益顯著上升。

Turning to operating cash flow. Strong progress on inventory management allowed us to generate $679 million of positive operating cash flow year-to-date through the third quarter. This represents considerable improvement versus a $567 million use of cash during the same period last year. Therefore, through the first 9 months of 2023, operating cash flow increased more than $1.2 billion, which is a remarkable achievement that Chris and I want to thank Newell's extended planning, sourcing and production teams for delivering.

轉向經營現金流。庫存管理的強勁進展使我們從年初至今到第三季創造了 6.79 億美元的正營運現金流。與去年同期 5.67 億美元的現金使用量相比，這是相當大的改善。因此，到 2023 年前 9 個月，營運現金流增加了超過 12 億美元，這是一項了不起的成就，克里斯和我要感謝 Newell 的擴展規劃、採購和生產團隊所取得的成就。

As anticipated, the company's leverage peaked at 6.3x at the end of Q2 before improving sequentially and ending the third quarter at 6.1x. We are exceeding our cash flow projections and paying down debt and expect additional improvement in the leverage ratio in Q4. Longer term, we remain committed to achieving investment-grade status and continue to target a leverage ratio of about 2.5x.

正如預期的那樣，該公司的槓桿率在第二季末達到 6.3 倍的峰值，然後連續改善並在第三季結束時達到 6.1 倍。我們超出了現金流預測並償還了債務，並預計第四季度槓桿率將進一步改善。從長遠來看，我們仍然致力於實現投資級地位，並繼續將槓桿率設定為約2.5倍。

Looking out over the remainder of the year, we've assumed the following for the fourth quarter. Net sales in the range of $1.96 billion to $2.03 billion as net sales and core sales are both expected to decline 14% to 11% versus last year. Gross margin is expected to be demonstrably higher than the fourth quarter of last year due to the targeted interventions we have made to improve the structural economics of the business. SG&A expense relative to last year is expected to be down in dollar terms, driven by Project Phoenix savings and discretionary spend control, but SG&A as a percentage of sales, should increase due to lower and, to a much lesser extent, from the capabilities we've invested in, in consumer and customer understanding, revenue growth management, data analytics and retail execution, among others.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們對第四季做出以下假設。淨銷售額在 19.6 億美元至 20.3 億美元之間，淨銷售額和核心銷售額預計將比去年下降 14% 至 11%。由於我們為改善業務的結構經濟性而採取的有針對性的干預措施，預計毛利率將明顯高於去年第四季。受鳳凰計畫節省和可自由支配支出控制的推動，以美元計算，SG&A 費用預計將比去年有所下降，但SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比應該會增加，因為我們的能力較低，並且在較小程度上是由於我們的能力。投資於消費者和客戶理解、收入成長管理、數據分析和零售執行等。

Putting all this together, fourth quarter normalized operating margin is forecasted to be in the range of 7.8% to 8.8%, which represents a 290 to 390 basis point improvement versus last year. As such, Q4 is expected to mark an important turning point in the company's operating profit, which at the midpoint of the range is forecasted to grow nearly 50% versus last year. Finally, for the fourth quarter, we forecast interest expense to be higher year-over-year, a tax rate in the high teens and normalized earnings per share in the range of $0.15 to $0.20.

綜上所述，第四季標準化營業利潤率預計將在 7.8% 至 8.8% 之間，比去年提高 290 至 390 個基點。因此，第四季預計將成為公司營業利潤的重要轉捩點，預計營業利潤將比去年增長近 50%。最後，我們預計第四季度的利息支出將同比增加，稅率將達到高位，標準化每股收益將在 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元之間。

For the full year, we expect net sales in the range of $8.02 billion to $8.09 billion, largely driven by a core sales decline of about 13%. Normalized operating margin is expected to be 7% to 7.3% as we reflect a negative top line flow-through and capability investments discussed earlier. Interest expense is forecasted to be up significantly versus last year with a normalized tax benefit in the teens, reflecting the sizable tax benefit that was realized in the third quarter. Normalized diluted earnings per share are now forecasted in the $0.72 to $0.77 range.

我們預計全年淨銷售額將在 80.2 億美元至 80.9 億美元之間，這主要是由於核心銷售額下降約 13%。正常化營業利潤率預計為 7% 至 7.3%，因為我們反映了前面討論的負營收流入和能力投資。預計利息支出將比去年大幅增加，正常化稅收優惠將達到十幾歲，反映了第三季度實現的可觀稅收優惠。目前預計標準化攤薄每股收益在 0.72 美元至 0.77 美元之間。

At the start of the year, we said cash generation was our #1 priority, so we're very pleased that based on our strong year-to-date performance, we can confidently raise our cash flow outlook for the year, even as top line expectations and earnings per share estimates have been tempered. We now expect to generate operating cash flow of $800 million to $900 million, inclusive of $95 million to $120 million of cash payments related to Project Phoenix, which, as Chris indicated, is on track for $140 million to $160 million of pretax savings this year.

在今年年初，我們表示現金生成是我們的第一要務，因此我們非常高興的是，基於我們年初至今的強勁表現，我們可以自信地提高今年的現金流前景，即使是頂級的線預期和每股收益預期均已下調。我們現在預計將產生8 億至9 億美元的營運現金流，其中包括與鳳凰項目相關的9,500 萬至1.2 億美元現金支付，正如克里斯所指出的，該項目今年預計將節省1.4 億至1.6 億美元的稅前成本。

At the midpoint of our outlook, operating cash flow improved by more than $1.1 billion year-over-year with free cash flow productivity expected to be well north of 100%. With the caveat that next year's planning process is still in its very early stages, we thought it might be helpful to provide some high-level conceptual thoughts. So with that understanding, meaningful improvement in the top line run rate is expected on a sequential basis. However, 2024 core sales are still expected to be down as macroeconomic challenges persist and front-end capabilities are still being rebuilt.

在我們的展望中期，營運現金流較去年同期改善超過 11 億美元，自由現金流生產力預計將遠高於 100%。需要注意的是，明年的規劃過程仍處於早期階段，我們認為提供一些高層次的概念性想法可能會有所幫助。因此，有了這種理解，預計營收運行率將連續顯著改善。然而，由於宏觀經濟挑戰持續且前端能力仍在重建，預計 2024 年核心銷售額仍將下降。

Please note that this preliminary sales commentary is consistent with comments provided at the Deutsche Bank Conference in June, where we stated core sales growth is expected to be below the evergreen target of low single-digit growth over the next 12 to 18 months. Currency based on current spot rates in combination with planned brand exits might collectively lower net sales by an additional 2 to 3 points. Importantly, we expect strong gross margin improvement next year, fueled by productivity savings, carryover pricing benefits, less excess and obsolete charges and better product mix, which should allow operating margin to expand ahead of the 50 basis point evergreen target even as we continue to invest behind front-end capabilities. Interest expense should be slightly higher in 2024, and at this point, we are planning for a normalized effective tax rate of about 17%, which would represent a significant year-over-year headwind to earnings per share. As for cash, we'll provide more context once we're further along in our planning process. But in the meantime, suffice it to say cash will remain a major focus area for us.

請注意，這項初步銷售評論與 6 月德意志銀行會議上提供的評論一致，我們在會上表示，未來 12 至 18 個月核心銷售成長預計將低於低個位數成長的長期目標。基於當前即期匯率的貨幣加上計劃中的品牌退出可能會使淨銷售額額外降低 2 至 3 個百分點。重要的是，我們預計明年毛利率將強勁改善，這得益於生產力節省、結轉定價優勢、超額和過時費用減少以及更好的產品組合，這將使營業利潤率在50 個基點的常青目標之前擴大，即使我們繼續投資前端能力。 2024 年利息支出應該會略高，此時，我們計劃將正常化有效稅率設定為 17% 左右，這對每股收益來說將是一個重大的同比阻力。至於現金，一旦我們的規劃過程進一步推進，我們將提供更多背景資訊。但同時，足以說明現金仍將是我們主要的關注領域。

In closing, there are 2 key takeaways from today's call. First, we are making strong progress on the deployment of our new integrated set of corporate, business unit, functional and brand strategies, all of which were heavily informed by a comprehensive company-wide capability assessment. We now have, for the first time in a long time, very clear where to play and how to win choices that the major pivot in our front-end consumer-facing capabilities will allow us to successfully pursue.

最後，今天的電話會議有兩個重點。首先，我們在部署一套新的公司、業務部門、職能和品牌戰略綜合戰略方面取得了重大進展，所有這些戰略都在全面的全公司能力評估的基礎上得到了充分的參考。現在，我們很長一段時間以來第一次非常清楚在哪裡發揮作用以及如何贏得選擇，而我們面向消費者的前端能力的主要支點將使我們能夠成功地追求這些選擇。

Second, Newell is delivering against the 2 key financial priorities, gross margin and cash flow that were established for 2023 even though macro-driven pressures are greater than previously anticipated. Specifically, the underlying structural economics of the business are being strengthened with gross margin expanding both sequentially and year-over-year, with additional gross margin improvement expected during Q4 and next year. And as we've doubled down on actions that are within our control, operating cash flow has improved more than $1.2 billion year-to-date.

其次，儘管宏觀驅動的壓力比之前預期的要大，但 Newell 正在按照為 2023 年制定的毛利率和現金流這兩個關鍵財務優先事項來實現。具體來說，該業務的基礎結構經濟正在加強，毛利率連續和同比增長，預計第四季度和明年的毛利率將進一步改善。隨著我們在可控範圍內加倍努力，營運現金流今年迄今已改善超過 12 億美元。

So while the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, we are undeterred and are moving forward with deliberate speed to unlock and monetize the full potential of Newell's portfolio of leading brands by building the front-end capabilities and creating and leveraging the scale required to consistently win with consumers and customers in our product categories.

因此，儘管宏觀經濟環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們沒有被嚇倒，而是以審慎的速度向前邁進，透過建立前端能力、創建和利用持續贏得消費者所需的規模，釋放Newell 領先品牌組合的全部潛力並從中獲利。以及我們產品類別中的客戶。

Operator, if you could, please open the call for questions.

接線員，如果可以的話，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的克里斯凱裡（Chris Carey）。

So I just want to talk maybe high level. Can you just talk about the evolution of how you would expect to manage the business? I think right now is very much a focus on free cash flow and the balance sheet and over time as sort of these macro headwinds and other kind of competitive dynamics ease, then the focus can perhaps turn a bit more back to the income statement, delivering earnings, right?

所以我只想談高層次的話題。您能談談您期望如何管理業務的演變嗎？我認為現在的重點是自由現金流和資產負債表，隨著時間的推移，隨著這些宏觀阻力和其他競爭動態的緩解，那麼重點可能會更多地回到損益表上，從而提供收入，對嗎？

So just maybe the tension in the organization between those 2 things. And I guess the question underlying that is the performance that we're seeing right now, how much of that is due to you making certain decisions in favor of the balance sheet and cash flow as opposed to again the income statement, given the priorities right now?

所以也許組織中這兩件事之間存在著緊張關係。我猜潛在的問題是我們現在看到的業績，其中有多少是由於你做出了有利於資產負債表和現金流而不是損益表的某些決定，考慮到優先事項正確現在？

Yes, thanks for the question. So let me try to provide a little bit of commentary on that. And you're right, we did, at the beginning of this year, as we said in the prepared remarks, prioritize cash flow and gross margin improvement and structural economic improvement in the business. And we've made a series of choices to try to drive that. You've seen our inventory is down, I think, around $850 million versus the same time last year, which is a massive improvement, which is driving the operating cash flow to be $1.2 billion better year-to-date this year versus last year.

是的，謝謝你的提問。因此，讓我嘗試對此提供一些評論。你是對的，我們在今年年初確實做到了，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，優先考慮現金流和毛利率的改善以及業務的結構性經濟改善。我們做出了一系列選擇來嘗試推動這一目標。我想你已經看到我們的庫存比去年同期下降了約 8.5 億美元，這是一個巨大的進步，這使得今年迄今為止的營運現金流比去年增加了 12 億美元。

You've also seen that we've turned the business to now driving gross margin improvement this quarter of 170 basis points, and we expect gross margin in Q4 to be up even more than that versus a year ago. And some of those choices are things like the July 1 price increase that we put in the market where as Mark commented on, we priced structurally unattractive businesses. And in some cases, what we've seen is retailers have accepted those price increases, consumers have accepted those price increases and the structural profitability of those businesses improved. In some cases, we've lost distribution on those businesses, but it was effectively 0 margin business that we've walked away from.

您還看到，我們已經將業務轉向現在，推動本季毛利率提高 170 個基點，我們預計第四季度的毛利率將比一年前增長更多。其中一些選擇是我們在 7 月 1 日對市場進行的提價，正如馬克所評論的那樣，我們對結構上不具吸引力的業務進行了定價。在某些情況下，我們看到零售商已經接受了價格上漲，消費者也接受了價格上漲，而這些企業的結構性獲利能力也得到了改善。在某些情況下，我們失去了這些業務的分銷權，但我們實際上放棄的是零利潤業務。

And so we think that what we're doing is improving the long-term quality of our portfolio consistent with the strategy that we've deployed focused on the top 25 brands, top 10 countries. At the same time, we are very focused on the capability improvement actions that I mentioned around consumer understanding, brand building, innovation which we believe can get the company back to market share growth more broadly than where we are today.

因此，我們認為我們正在做的是提高我們產品組合的長期質量，這與我們重點關注前 25 個品牌、前 10 個國家/地區的策略一致。同時，我們非常關注我提到的圍繞消費者理解、品牌建立、創新的能力改善行動，我們相信這些行動可以使公司恢復到比今天更廣泛的市佔率成長。

We are growing market share today on a number of our leading brands, brands like Sharpie and EXPO and Rubbermaid and Crock-Pot and Ball, but we're not growing market share across a broad enough set of our brands, and we aspire to do that so that when the macro environment turns, we are positioned with leading brands that are growing market share and in a position with a more structurally attractive business. And that's really the -- how we're thinking about the trajectory going forward.

今天，我們的許多領先品牌的市場份額都在增長，例如 Sharpie、EXPO、Rubbermaid、Crock-Pot 和 Ball 等品牌，但我們的品牌市場份額還沒有增長，我們渴望做到這一點這樣，當宏觀環境當我們發生轉變時，我們就能定位於市佔率不斷成長的領導品牌，並擁有更具結構吸引力的業務。這確實是我們思考未來發展軌跡的方式。

And one quick follow-up. Just as you think about this dynamic of over the next 12 to 18 months, that core sales, for example, would remain under pressure, how much of that is a function of category growth, market share performance versus things that you think you need to do in the organization to create a cleaner, maybe smaller, more profitable foundation for the longer term?

還有一個快速跟進。正如您思考未來 12 到 18 個月的動態一樣，例如，核心銷售仍將面臨壓力，其中有多少是品類增長、市場份額表現與您認為需要的因素的函數從長遠來看，組織中應該如何創建一個更乾淨、可能更小、更有利可圖的基礎？

Yes. I think the majority, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, this quarter, about 80% of the core sales decline was really driven by market contraction and retailer inventory actions. But there's 20% that's related to us not having the front-end capabilities where we want them and walking away from some of these structurally-challenged businesses. I think as we go forward, you're going to see that 20% bucket improve dramatically as the strategy and the capability investment starts to take shape and we believe that's going to turn into a positive rather than a headwind over the next 12 to 24 months.

是的。我認為，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，本季約 80% 的核心銷售下降實際上是由市場收縮和零售商庫存行動推動的。但有 20% 的問題與我們不具備我們想要的前端能力以及放棄一些結構上存在挑戰的業務有關。我認為，隨著我們的前進，隨著策略和能力投資開始成形，您將看到 20% 的比例顯著提高，我們相信這將在未來 12 到 24 年內變成積極因素，而不是逆風幾個月。

The category growth dynamic is hard to predict, as we've said repeatedly. But I do think that the category growth dynamic, from a macro standpoint, some of the dynamics that are driving that are coming to an end. We believe that retailer inventory destocking is largely behind us at this point, for example. The consumer -- underlying consumer pressure that's causing consumers to prioritize spending on food, essentials, and away from durable and discretionary categories is harder to predict.

正如我們一再說過的，品類成長動態很難預測。但我確實認為，從宏觀角度來看，品類成長的動力，一些推動的動力即將結束。例如，我們認為，零售商庫存去庫存目前已基本結束。消費者－潛在的消費者壓力導致消費者優先考慮在食品、必需品上支出，而不是耐用和非必需品類別，這一點很難預測。

And our next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So I wanted to go back to this point about growing share. You mentioned it's not enough to grow share in a declining category, which I appreciate the honesty. But could it make sense and should make to perhaps sell some of the businesses, I know you've been through a lot of rationalization over the years since the Jarden acquisition. But wondering if some of these other businesses, even though they may have cash flow there that you [can't] sell but perhaps be more, I think, choiceful from what you can keep or what you cannot.

所以我想回到關於成長份額的話題。你提到在一個正在下降的類別中增加份額是不夠的，我很欣賞你的誠實。但是，這是否有意義並且應該出售一些業務，我知道自賈登收購以來，多年來您已經經歷了很多合理化。但想知道是否有一些其他企業，即使它們可能有現金流，但你[不能]出售，但我認為，也許可以從你可以保留的或你不能保留的東西中進行更多選擇。

And I understand that you just mentioned about 20% of what you saw in the decline of core sales have been from not having capabilities or having made choiceful decisions for distribution on things that are not, they are not so profitable. So I wanted to just go back and see if, number one, you can -- there is space for divestitures or it's going to be like -- it's not like a full business, and therefore, it's more you getting out of some of these categories or some of these SKUs? And how far along in this process you believe you are? Because I understood that you've been doing this all along from reducing the very massive reduction in SKUs. So I was wondering why it's taking so long or is that something that you realized like you have to continue to do in order to improve profitability?

據我所知，您剛才提到，您所看到的核心銷售額下降的大約 20% 是由於沒有能力或做出了選擇性的決策來分銷那些沒有能力、利潤不那麼高的東西。所以我想回去看看，第一，你是否可以 - 是否有剝離的空間，或者它會像 - 它不像一個完整的業務，因此，你更多的是擺脫其中的一些類別或其中一些 SKU？您認為自己在這個過程中已經走了多遠？因為我知道你們一直在這樣做，因為 SKU 的大幅減少。所以我想知道為什麼要花這麼長時間，還是您意識到必須繼續這樣做才能提高獲利能力？

Yes. So let me try to provide some perspective. So when we announced the strategy in June, we had -- at that point in time, we had 80 brands that we were selling across the company. The 80 brands that we were selling largely fit within the company's portfolio because they are branded products that are sold based on the same capability set of consumer understanding, innovation, brand building, applies to all of the 80 brands. And they're largely distributed through the same retail channels across the world.

是的。因此，讓我嘗試提供一些觀點。因此，當我們在 6 月宣布該策略時，當時我們在整個公司銷售 80 個品牌。我們銷售的 80 個品牌很大程度上符合公司的產品組合，因為它們是基於消費者理解、創新、品牌建立的相同能力集而銷售的品牌產品，適用於所有 80 個品牌。它們主要透過相同的零售管道分佈在世界各地。

And so we feel like we've got now a portfolio from the divestitures that have been completed over the last 5 years that fits together and where there is scale that can be leveraged. We've also made important progress on the supply chain and the back office to get things on to one IT system, to get things into one distribution network with the Ovid program, et cetera, so that we believe, in most cases, we are the best owner of those brands. So we continue to look at, is the portfolio the right thing and is there value to be unlocked. But to date, we have not seen that there's a big opportunity to break up the portfolio and drive value because we believe the dissynergies and the tax impact would overwhelm any value we would get from a major divestiture.

因此，我們覺得我們現在已經從過去 5 年完成的剝離中獲得了一個組合，這些組合組合在一起，並且具有可以利用的規模。我們還在供應鏈和後台方面取得了重要進展，將事物整合到一個 IT 系統中，透過 Ovid 計劃將事物整合到同一個分銷網絡中，等等，因此我們相信，在大多數情況下，我們這些品牌的最佳所有者。因此，我們繼續關注該投資組合是否正確，是否有可以釋放的價值。但迄今為止，我們還沒有看到拆分投資組合併推動價值的大機會，因為我們認為，不協同效應和稅收影響將壓倒我們從重大剝離中獲得的任何價值。

That being said, we also very clearly said that we don't think 80 brands is the right answer. And so as part of the strategy, we said we're going to prioritize the top 25 brands because they represent 90% of the sales and profit of the company, we are moving at pace since we announced that strategy in June. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we expect to be down from 80 brands down to 60 by the end of this year. So that's already a meaningful reduction in the number of brands in the portfolio, and we think we'll continue to reduce the number of brands over time.

話雖如此，我們也非常明確地表示，我們認為 80 個品牌不是正確的答案。因此，作為該策略的一部分，我們表示將優先考慮前 25 個品牌，因為它們占公司銷售額和利潤的 90%，自 6 月宣布該策略以來，我們正在加快步伐。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們預計到今年年底品牌數量將從 80 個減少到 60 個。因此，這已經是產品組合中品牌數量的顯著減少，我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續減少品牌數量。

As we look to how are we reducing the number of brands in the portfolio, largely what we're doing is we're converting shelf space that we have on these smaller, less consumer-relevant brands into shelf space on our bigger, more profitable, more consumer-relevant brands. But it takes a little bit of time to do that because retailers reset their shelving typically on an annual basis, and we don't want to create holes across shelving. And so we've worked up a plan to sort of migrate this shelf space over time from these small brands that we will be exiting into a more streamlined portfolio focused on the top 25.

當我們考慮如何減少產品組合中的品牌數量時，我們所做的主要是將這些較小、與消費者相關性較低的品牌的貨架空間轉換為更大、利潤更高的品牌的貨架空間，更多與消費者相關的品牌。但這需要一點時間，因為零售商通常每年都會重置貨架，而且我們不想在貨架上留下洞。因此，我們制定了一項計劃，隨著時間的推移，我們將把這些小品牌的貨架空間遷移到一個更精簡的產品組合中，專注於前 25 名品牌。

And our next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Just kind of keeping it as it seems to be on kind of a high-level conversation this morning. This is now, I guess, kind of the third cut to top line this year and I know that things change with your kind of new outlook midyear. But trying to understand how forecastable your business is right now with -- and the kind of merits of doing so many things to try to rightsize the ship when the macro environment is so kind of volatile.

只是保留它，因為今天早上似乎是在進行高層對話。我想，這是今年第三次削減收入，我知道情況會隨著你年中的新前景而改變。但要嘗試了解您的業務目前的可預測性如何，以及在宏觀環境如此不穩定的情況下，採取如此多的措施來嘗試調整船舶規模的優點。

And when I say that, I mean, you talked about lowering the number of brands by 20, replacing, I think, 1/3 of the brand managers in the past 6 months, SKU reduction, Project Ovid, Project -- there are a couple of other projects in there. And at the time when it doesn't seem like anyone in the categories you play in can really forecast kind of post-pandemic recovery or new normal. So I'm just -- maybe you could touch on -- do you worry that you're doing too much or that with all these changes happening, that forecastability isn't going to be that great for 6 months until we kind of see how things sit? Or is this just something you had to do and it's kind of a rip-the-band-aid type moment?

當我這麼說時，我的意思是，您談到了在過去 6 個月內減少了 20 個品牌數量，更換了 1/3 的品牌經理，減少了 SKU，Ovid 項目，項目 - 有一個那裡還有其他幾個項目。當時，似乎沒有人能夠真正預測疫情後的復甦或新常態。所以我只是 - 也許你可以談談 - 你是否擔心你做得太多，或者隨著所有這些變化的發生，可預測性在 6 個月內不會那麼好，直到我們看到事情怎麼坐？或者這只是你必須做的事情，而且是一種撕破創可貼式的時刻？

Yes, it's a good question. It's one that we talk a lot about with the Board and with the management team inside the company. If you look at the core sales growth of minus 9% in Q3, and I think we had guided down 5% to 7%, so we were 3 points off at the midpoint of the range versus the actual, that 3-point miss was really entirely driven by market growth, which came in weaker than we expected. And that gets to your point of it's a challenging environment to forecast the market and consumer offtake right now.

是的，這是一個好問題。這是我們與董事會和公司內部管理團隊經常討論的問題。如果你看一下第三季負9% 的核心銷售成長，我認為我們的指導方針是下降5% 到7%，所以我們在範圍中點與實際情況相比落後了3 個百分點，這個3 個百分點的偏差是實際上完全是由市場成長所驅動的，但市場成長弱於我們的預期。這說明了現在預測市場和消費者購買量是一個充滿挑戰的環境。

That being said, we believe, from the capability assessment work that we've done and the strategy that we put in place, that we need to improve these capabilities because at some point, this market will turn and the macro environment will not be as negative as it is now. And we want to make sure when that happens that we are fully positioned to take advantage of that with a portfolio of leading brands that have the ability to consistently grow market share and drive market growth in what eventually will be a better macro environment.

話雖如此，我們認為，從我們所做的能力評估工作和我們制定的策略來看，我們需要提高這些能力，因為在某個時候，這個市場會發生轉變，宏觀環境不會像現在這樣。就像現在一樣負面。我們希望確保，當這種情況發生時，我們能夠充分利用這一優勢，擁有一系列領先品牌，這些品牌有能力持續增加市場份額，並在最終更好的宏觀環境中推動市場成長。

But we recognize that the macro environment right now is very difficult to forecast. We're trying to run the business on a scenario planning basis with wider ranges of possible outcomes given that dynamic, but it doesn't cause us to slow down on the capability improvement actions that we need to drive because we believe that those need to happen irrespective of the macro environment.

但我們認識到，目前的宏觀環境很難預測。我們正在嘗試在場景規劃的基礎上經營業務，考慮到這種動態，並提供更廣泛的可能結果，但這並不會導致我們放慢我們需要推動的能力改進行動，因為我們相信這些需要與宏觀環境無關。

Got it. Is that -- I mean, when I'm listening to the initiatives and stuff like that, I mean, the way you look at it is, they've all been announced and in our process. It's not you're continuing to look for new initiatives or new ways to change the business. It's -- we just got to keep pushing forward with the original kind of reorg?

知道了。我的意思是，當我聽到這些倡議和類似的事情時，我的意思是，你看待它的方式是，它們都已經宣布並在我們的流程中。這並不是說您要繼續尋找新舉措或新方法來改變業務。這是──我們必須繼續推進最初的重組？

That's exactly right. So there's -- from the capability assessment, which was comprehensive that led to the strategy, there's been no change in the strategy or in the initiatives that we're driving to try to drive the capability improvement. And many of them are now well underway. Some of them have actually already been completed, not all, but it's not that we're adding new things on to the list. We're driving the plan that we put in place as part of the June strategy review.

完全正確。因此，從導致策略的全面能力評估來看，策略或我們為推動能力改善而推動的措施並沒有改變。其中許多現在正在順利進行中。其中一些實際上已經完成，不是全部，但這並不是說我們要在清單中添加新內容。我們正在推動作為六月戰略審查一部分而製定的計劃。

Got it. And then one just follow-up on the Writing instruments. I mean, that was a category that had at least low to mid-single digit growth for many years prior and going into the pandemic. Obviously, the pandemic changed everything with back-to-school and what have you. As we're getting back to a more normalized environment, is this a long-term mid-single digit growth or low to mid-single digit growth category? Or is it more mature now and it's maybe not as opportunistic as it used to be?

知道了。然後是書寫工具的後續工作。我的意思是，這一類別在大流行之前的許多年裡至少有低至中個位數的增長。顯然，大流行改變了返校後的一切。當我們回到更正常化的環境時，這是長期的中個位數成長還是中低個位數成長類別？還是說現在更成熟了，可能不再像以前那樣機會主義了？

Yes. We've looked at that, at the Writing category growth over the last 5 years, over the last 10 years, over the last 20 years. And over -- if you normalize out sort of the COVID blip, it's been a category that's been growing kind of low single digits on a global basis. So we think that, that's the right place for it to be. I don't think it's a mid-single-digit growing category. I think it's a low-single-digit growing category. And that's our view of what we think is likely on a normalized basis going forward.

是的。我們研究了過去 5 年、過去 10 年、過去 20 年寫作類別的成長。如果你把新冠肺炎疫情的影響正常化的話，你會發現這個類別在全球範圍內一直在以較低的個位數成長。所以我們認為，這是合適的地方。我不認為這是一個中等個位數成長的類別。我認為這是一個低個位數成長的類別。這就是我們對未來正常化基礎上可能發生的情況的看法。

And our next question comes from the line of Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的彼得·格羅姆 (Peter Grom)。

So I appreciate all the commentary on '24 and I'm sure we'll get more concrete guidance in February. But is there any way to frame the degree of margin expansion that you're kind of expecting just because -- should we expect kind of the 4Q exit rate, which is pretty substantial to continue? Should it be a bit more subdued than that? Just because given the top line commentary, higher interest tax rate, if it's less robust, that would imply a pretty substantial step down in EPS. So I'm not trying to pin down guidance or anything but just -- it would be helpful to just try to understand directionally how we should be thinking about it.

所以我感謝所有關於 '24 的評論，我相信我們會在 2 月份得到更具體的指導。但是，有沒有什麼方法可以確定您所期望的利潤率擴張程度，因為——我們是否應該期望第四季度的退出率，而這種退出率相當大？應該比這更柔和一點嗎？僅僅因為考慮到最重要的評論，更高的利率，如果不那麼強勁，那就意味著每股收益將大幅下降。因此，我並不是想確定指導方針或其他任何東西，只是——嘗試定向理解我們應該如何思考它會很有幫助。

Yes. Let me offer a few thoughts as it relates to that and maybe I can even reinforce some of the commentary about the current year gross margin progression. We're really excited by what's happening on the gross margin front, right? We said we have to improve the structural economics of the business and we've been getting after that in quick order here. And you're seeing that in the fact that we've improved sequentially from Q1 to Q2, Q2 to Q3, and we're calling for a very large continued progression on gross margin from Q3 to Q4 of this year, which we do think will put us into a good launchpad going into the following year.

是的。讓我提供一些與此相關的想法，也許我甚至可以強化有關本年度毛利率進展的一些評論。我們對毛利率方面發生的事情感到非常興奮，對吧？我們說過我們必須改善業務的結構經濟學，我們一直在快速實現這一目標。您會看到，事實上我們從第一季到第二季、第二季到第三季都有所改善，我們呼籲今年從第三季到第四季的毛利率繼續大幅成長，我們確實認為這一點將為我們進入下一年提供一個良好的啟動平台。

It's notable that this is the first time gross margin expanded since the second quarter of '21, and it's driven in part by the fact that our fuel productivity savings this year are running at almost 6.5% of COGS. And that's not a coincidence. I mean, that's nearly 2x what we've normally seen in most years. It traces back to Project Phoenix and the decisions to restructure the business. So the supply chain is a unified force as is procurement, and that's lending itself to all kind of additional opportunities that we're seeing. That strong progression is really what's allowing us to call in the fourth quarter for that gross margin to expand and more importantly, the normalized operating margin based on the commentary we provided is expected to be up, as I said, 290 to 390 basis points. I mean, that's a huge move in the right direction.

值得注意的是，這是自 21 年第二季以來毛利率首次增長，部分原因是我們今年的燃油生產率節省幾乎佔 COGS 的 6.5%。這並非巧合。我的意思是，這幾乎是我們大多數年份通常看到的兩倍。它可以追溯到鳳凰計劃和重組業務的決定。因此，供應鏈和採購一樣是一股統一的力量，這為我們所看到的各種額外機會提供了機會。這種強勁的成長確實使我們能夠在第四季度呼籲毛利率擴大，更重要的是，正如我所說，根據我們提供的評論，正常化營業利潤率預計將上升 290 至 390 個基點。我的意思是，這是朝著正確方向邁出的一大步。

So I know it's difficult to see all that underneath the surface when you're looking at the top line compression driven by market contraction and trade destocking principally, but it's most certainly there. We haven't provided any specifics on gross margin for next year and we won't at this time. But we have said that if we look at our evergreen targets of growing op margin 50 basis points per year, we will be certainly at or above that next year, and most of that will be driven by continued gross margin progress that we're making.

因此，我知道，當你看到主要由市場收縮和貿易去庫存驅動的營收壓縮時，很難看到表面之下的所有內容，但它肯定是存在的。我們尚未提供有關明年毛利率的任何具體信息，目前也不會提供。但我們已經說過，如果我們考慮營運利潤率每年增長 50 個基點的常青目標，明年我們肯定會達到或超過這個目標，而這大部分將由我們毛利率的持續進步所推動。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then just following up on the category performance, which obviously has been called out several times as a big driver of the weaker 3Q. Can you maybe just give us some color on how that really progressed through the quarter? Is it going to get worse as we kind of later in August and into September? And have category trends further slowed here into October?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後是跟進品類表現，這顯然已多次被稱為較弱的第三季度的主要推動力。您能否向我們介紹本季的實際進展？隨著八月晚些時候和九月的到來，情況會變得更糟嗎？進入 10 月份，品類趨勢是否進一步放緩？

Yes. I think as I mentioned before, really the driver of the core sales miss versus our guidance in Q3 was the market contraction rate, which came in about 3 points higher than what we expected. We did see that September was the weakest quarter -- weakest month of the third quarter. And so we did see the trend in terms of market contraction accelerate into the back part of the quarter. And obviously, we've got some view of the first part of October, and that is running very much in line with our guidance for the fourth quarter. So that's a bit on sort of the inner quarter play.

是的。我認為，正如我之前提到的，與我們第三季的指導相比，核心銷售未達到預期的真正驅動因素是市場收縮率，其比我們的預期高出約 3 個百分點。我們確實看到 9 月是最疲軟的季度——第三季中最疲軟的月份。因此，我們確實看到市場萎縮的趨勢在本季後期加速。顯然，我們對 10 月上半月有了一些看法，這與我們對第四季的指導非常一致。所以這有點像內線比賽。

Yes, if I could, I think it might be helpful because obviously in Q3, as Chris indicated, we saw our core sales down by 9%. For the fourth quarter, we're effectively saying that we think that our core sales will be down somewhere between 14% and 11%. And I think it might be instructive to try and kind of decompose that for everybody here on the call today.

是的，如果可以的話，我認為這可能會有所幫助，因為正如克里斯指出的那樣，顯然在第三季度，我們的核心銷售額下降了 9%。對於第四季度，我們實際上是在說，我們認為我們的核心銷售額將下降 14% 到 11% 之間。我認為嘗試對今天參加電話會議的每個人進行分解可能會有所啟發。

So in both Q3 and Q4, we expect the market to continue to contract. Based on our analytics, we think that will be somewhere mid-single digits to high single digits, for the sake of argument, let's call that somewhere down 6% to 7%. That will be true both in the third quarter and we think in the fourth quarter. Trade destocking, we're getting towards the tail end of that. We think it was somewhere between minus 1% and minus 2% in Q3. We think that will carry over to Q4 as well. And as Chris indicated, there was a certain element of share loss that we incurred, let's call that 1 point. And if you do that math on Q3, you'll see that, that's roughly down the 9% that we obviously just printed in our release.

因此，在第三季和第四季，我們預計市場將繼續收縮。根據我們的分析，我們認為這將是中個位數到高個位數的某個位置，為了便於討論，我們將其稱為下降 6% 到 7% 的某個位置。這在第三季和我們認為在第四季都是如此。貿易去庫存，我們正接近尾聲。我們認為第三季的成長率介於負 1% 到負 2% 之間。我們認為這也將延續到第四季。正如克里斯所指出的，我們遭受了一定程度的份額損失，我們將其稱為 1 分。如果你對第三季度進行數學計算，你會發現，這大約比我們剛剛在發布中發布的 9% 低。

The only 2 things that are then different in Q4 is, as Chris indicated, we did take pricing action on (inaudible). This is part of our enhanced capabilities to actually do more data analytics. You'll recall that we actually literally looked at the structural economics of 6,000 discrete SKUs and being able to make those pricing actions. So they were very, very targeted and they were in the right places, but we will lose some distribution as a result of that. And in Q4, we think that might be a point or 2. But again, this is where we're economically indifferent because the structural economics were so poor that the pricing actions needed to be taken and if the business falls away, it falls away and then the supply chain will make up the differential.

正如克里斯指出的那樣，第四季度唯一不同的兩件事是，我們確實採取了定價行動（聽不清楚）。這是我們實際進行更多數據分析的增強能力的一部分。您會記得，我們​​實際上確實研究了 6,000 個離散 SKU 的結構經濟學，並能夠採取這些定價行動。所以他們非常非常有針對性，而且他們在正確的地方，但我們將因此失去一些分配。在第四季度，我們認為這可能是一個點或兩個點。但同樣，這也是我們對經濟漠不關心的地方，因為結構經濟學非常糟糕，需要採取定價行動，如果業務下滑，它就會下滑然後供應鏈就會彌補差價。

The other piece that is really playing into it and gets back to a question that was asked earlier that Chris provided an answer to, is we have about 2 points in the fourth quarter where we think we're going to have less deep discount promotions because what we're doing now is making the tough calls today to make sure we set the launchpad properly for '24. And so we've had a lot of promotions in the fourth quarter historically where, frankly, we didn't make any money. And so what we're doing is we're walking away from these structurally untenable decisions that were made in the past to get ourselves on good footing. And from there, we can grow our way back out based on the capability work that's being done.

另一個真正起作用的部分，回到克里斯之前提出的一個問題，克里斯提供了答案，我們在第四季度有大約 2 個點，我們認為我們的折扣促銷活動將會減少，因為我們現在要做的就是做出艱難的決定，以確保我們為24 小時正確設定啟動板。因此，我們在第四季度進行了很多促銷活動，坦白說，我們沒有賺到任何錢。因此，我們正在做的就是放棄過去為了讓自己站穩腳跟而做出的這些結構上站不住腳的決定。從那裡，我們可以根據正在完成的能力工作來重新發展。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian McNamara with Canaccord Genuity.

我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Brian McNamara。

Congrats on the really strong improvement in cash flow. A question we often get asked is if and when we'll see top line growth at Newell again. You've mentioned that sales will be down again next year. So I guess what should give investors confidence that you'll reach those evergreen targets in 2025?

祝賀現金流的真正強勁改善。我們經常被問到的一個問題是，我們是否以及何時會再次看到紐厄爾的營收成長。您提到明年銷售額將再次下降。所以我想什麼能讓投資人相信你們將在 2025 年實現這些常青目標？

Yes. I think the -- I think on that question, it's one that we ask ourselves often as well. And I think when we laid out the strategy, we were very clear that this was going to be a multiyear strategy. And we said that we expected for the next 4 to 6 quarters that we would be below the evergreen target on core sales growth because of the capability investment that was required to get the company back to sustainable core sales growth.

是的。我認為，關於這個問題，我們也常常問自己。我認為，當我們制定策略時，我們非常清楚這將是一項多年戰略。我們表示，預計未來 4 到 6 個季度我們的核心銷售成長將低於長期目標，因為需要進行能力投資才能使公司恢復可持續的核心銷售成長。

We are very much on track with the capability improvement actions that we've taken. I feel very good about the progress we've made over the last 4 months since we announced the strategy. We're only 4 months into the strategy, but I think we're making incredibly fast and strong progress against that. The piece that is sort of overwhelming that at the moment is the market contraction and the retail inventory actions. But we believe that at some point, those are going to weigh. As I mentioned, it's hard to predict when that's going to be.

我們所採取的能力改善行動進展順利。自從我們宣布該策略以來，我對過去 4 個月所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們實施該策略僅 4 個月，但我認為我們正在取得令人難以置信的快速和強勁的進展。目前令人難以承受的部分是市場收縮和零售庫存行動。但我們相信，在某個時候，這些都會產生影響。正如我所提到的，很難預測什麼時候會發生。

As Mark said in his prepared remarks, as we think about next year, we think core sales is likely going to be down next year, but we expect it to be sequentially better next year than this year. And we're very bullish on the progress we're making on the strategy, on the capability improvements. We think we'll be -- we'll have green shoots to point to in '24 from that work that will help improve the trend. And we think in '25, we're going to be in a much better place.

正如馬克在他準備好的演講中所說，當我們考慮明年時，我們認為明年的核心銷售可能會下降，但我們預計明年的銷售額將比今年好。我們非常看好我們在策略和能力改進方面的進展。我們認為我們將在 24 年從這項工作中看到新芽，這將有助於改善這一趨勢。我們認為到 25 年，我們將會處於一個更好的境地。

Got it. And then secondly, with the 20 brands you'll lose by the end of the year as you reallocate shelf space with your retail partners, are those largely being discontinued or are any of them being sold or licensed or other?

知道了。其次，當您與零售合作夥伴重新分配貨架空間時，到今年年底您將失去 20 個品牌，這些品牌是否大部分已停產，或者其中是否有任何品牌被出售、許可或其他？

Yes. I would say that probably 80% to 90% are just being discontinued. There are a handful that we are licensing, and there's 1 or 2 that we are actually going to sell. They won't be material sales but we are looking at all 3 alternatives as we go through this. In some cases, we have brands that might be $2 million of revenue and the right answer is just to discontinue the brand because it's not worth it to go and try to sell them. In other cases, we have brands that are more meaningful that are either a country-specific brand that doesn't really add to the portfolio and we don't think is leverageable and those are the ones that we're looking to sell.

是的。我想說，可能有 80% 到 90% 的產品剛停產。我們正在授權其中少數產品，並且我們實際上將出售其中一兩個產品。它們不會是實質銷售，但我們正在考慮所有 3 個替代方案。在某些情況下，我們的品牌可能會帶來 200 萬美元的收入，正確的答案是終止該品牌，因為不值得嘗試出售它們。在其他情況下，我們擁有更有意義的品牌，這些品牌要么是特定國家/地區的品牌，但並沒有真正添加到產品組合中，我們認為沒有槓桿作用，而這些正是我們想要出售的品牌。

An example there is we have a brand in Italy called Millefiori, which is a home fragrance brand. It's largely distributed only in Italy and we've reached a sale agreement on that brand, where we expected to close the sale of that brand this quarter.

舉個例子，我們在義大利有一個品牌叫做Millefiori，它是一個家用香水品牌。它主要只在義大利分銷，我們已經就該品牌達成了銷售協議，預計本季將完成該品牌的銷售。

And our next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Olivia Tong 和 Raymond James 的對話。

First question, just given obviously the focus on cash flow, if you could talk about what that implies with respect to your commitment to the dividend at current levels?

第一個問題，鑑於顯然對現金流的關注，您能否談談這對您對當前水平股息的承諾意味著什麼？

Yes. Look, I think we feel pretty good about where we are. We made an intervention earlier this year to rightsize the dividend. We said that our strategy as it relates to that is to be somewhere in the 30% to 35% dividend payout ratio, and we're going to continue to tag along with that going forward. So we feel really good about our cash position. I mean, it's important to note that we paid down a significant amount of debt. So far, net debt is down $500 million year-over-year, $400 million year-to-date. So we feel really good about the work that we're doing.

是的。聽著，我認為我們對自己所處的位置感覺很好。我們今年早些時候進行了乾預，以調整股息規模。我們說過，與此相關的我們的策略是將股息支付率保持在 30% 至 35% 之間，並且我們將繼續遵循這一點。所以我們對我們的現金狀況感覺非常好。我的意思是，值得注意的是我們償還了大量債務。到目前為止，淨債務年減 5 億美元，年初至今減少 4 億美元。所以我們對我們正在做的工作感覺非常好。

The other thing I would just take this opportunity to point to out and speak out to is, you'll recall that our inventory kind of peaked at $2.6 billion in the third quarter of last year. And as we go forward and kind of do our year-end projections, we think by the end of this year, we're going to have literally drawn down inventory by $1 billion on top of the market contraction that we're obviously contending with. So the fixed cost absorption from having that market contraction and the trade destocking and our self-selecting decision to basically hold back production in order to kind of clear the inventory, release the cash and then set the right base point for the next years going forward is really quite notable.

我想藉此機會指出並大聲疾呼的另一件事是，您會記得我們的庫存在去年第三季度達到了 26 億美元的峰值。當我們繼續前進並進行年終預測時，我們認為到今年年底，除了我們顯然正在應對的市場萎縮之外，我們還將實際上減少 10 億美元的庫存。因此，市場收縮和貿易去庫存帶來的固定成本吸收，以及我們自我選擇的決定基本上抑制生產，以清理庫存，釋放現金，然後為未來幾年設定正確的基點確實是相當值得注意的。

The other thing that we haven't talked about as much is just the carryover inflation effects that we've had to incur because of the way we do our inventory costing. At the end of last year, when we saw inflation running high single digits, this year kind of low single digits, we suspended an awful lot of inflation charges into our inventory balance. And over the first, second and third quarters of this year, we've been bleeding out that value in effect. And it's honestly been over $200 million of inflation that was basically incurred in the prior year that's now basically being bled through the P&L this year, which at the end of the third quarter here, it now stops and it actually reverses and starts going the other way.

我們沒有過多討論的另一件事是由於我們進行庫存成本計算的方式而不得不產生的結轉通膨效應。去年年底，當我們看到通貨膨脹率達到高個位數時，今年是低個位數，我們將大量的通貨膨脹費用暫停到我們的庫存餘額。在今年第一、第二和第三季度，我們實際上一直在消耗這個價值。老實說，超過2 億美元的通貨膨脹基本上是在去年發生的，現在基本上已經透過今年的損益表流失了，在第三季末，它現在停止了，而且實際上逆轉並開始走向另一個方向方式。

So we feel really good about our cash position, we feel really good about our gross margin position, and we're excited about the difficult decisions we've been taking to set the business up for success in the future as we then make the capability investments to really start driving the front end of the operation.

因此，我們對我們的現金狀況感覺非常好，我們對毛利率狀況感覺非常好，並且我們對我們為使業務在未來取得成功而做出的艱難決定感到興奮，因為我們隨後具備了能力投資才能真正開始推動營運的前端。

Got it. And then it sounds like '24 is obviously -- the challenges are expected to continue. As you think about a lot of the moving pieces, eventually, would imagine that innovation and focusing on innovation in order to drive sales recovery will become part of the plan. Can you talk about that and other actions that you can take in the interim that can improve your ability to combat the tough environment, maybe a little bit more?

知道了。聽起來 '24 顯然 - 挑戰預計將繼續下去。當你想到許多令人感動的事情時，最終會想像創新和專注於創新以推動銷售復甦將成為計劃的一部分。您能否談談您可以在此期間採取的其他行動，這些行動可以提高您應對惡劣環境的能力，也許還可以提高一點？

You briefly talked about the back-to-school categories but maybe some more specifics around some of the other moving parts within the division, ones that you think can recover faster versus ones that will clearly still have structural challenges that will take even more time to address. And just walk me through sort of the different businesses and thinking about the recovery path?

您簡要地談到了返校類別，但也許還有一些關於該部門內其他一些移動部分的更多細節，您認為那些可以更快恢復的部分，而不是那些顯然仍面臨結構性挑戰的部分，這些挑戰需要更多時間才能恢復。地址。讓我了解不同的業務並思考復甦之路？

Yes. So let me try from a company standpoint first, which is I think where you started. So we are doing a tremendous amount of change to get the front-end capability in a place where we think we can consistently drive market growth and market share gains in the categories in which we compete. And we talked about, in my prepared remarks, the innovation process that we put in place. We're putting in place a brand management structure. And importantly, it's not just the brand manager but we're also putting multifunctional teams against the top 25 brands, which did not exist before.

是的。因此，讓我先從公司的角度進行嘗試，我認為這就是您的起點。因此，我們正在做大量的改變，以獲得我們認為能夠持續推動我們競爭的類別中的市場成長和市場份額成長的前端能力。在我準備好的發言中，我們討論了我們實施的創新流程。我們正在建立品牌管理結構。重要的是，不僅僅是品牌經理，我們還針對前 25 個品牌組建了多功能團隊，這在以前是不存在的。

We're putting in place a selling capability, that is a new selling capability focused on going after incremental distribution opportunities, which we believe there are a significant amount of. We've started to put in place now a measurement system to look at our distribution, our selling, our merchandising and our promotion, which many other CPG companies have, but we were not measuring. And what we're finding is that in many of our categories, our share of shelf is below our market share. So we think we've got a big opportunity to change the retail environment to get our brands more appropriately distributed.

我們正在建立一種銷售能力，這是一種新的銷售能力，專注於追求增量分銷機會，我們相信這種機會數量很大。我們現在已經開始建立一個衡量系統來審視我們的分銷、銷售、推銷和促銷，許多其他消費品公司都有這個系統，但我們沒有進行衡量。我們發現，在我們的許多類別中，我們的貨架份額低於我們的市場份額。因此，我們認為我們有一個很大的機會來改變零售環境，使我們的品牌得到更適當的分佈。

We also are focused on something that we're calling internally pillars of competitive advantage. And we're starting to measure our brands and our products against superiority on product performance, on packaging and claims, on brand communication, on retail execution, both in-store and online, and on value from a pricing standpoint. And when I say value, I'm not talking about low price. I'm talking about representing a good value for the feature benefit set that we're offering, really focused on the MPP/HPP part of the market. And that all is new capability with KPIs that we are putting across the front end of the organization.

我們也專注於我們稱之為內部競爭優勢支柱的事情。我們開始根據產品性能、包裝和聲明、品牌傳播、店內和線上零售執行以及定價角度的價值優勢來衡量我們的品牌和產品。當我說價值時，我不是說低價。我所說的是代表我們提供的功能優勢集的良好價值，真正專注於市場的 MPP/HPP 部分。這一切都是我們在組織前端部署的 KPI 的新功能。

It is a lot of change on the front end, but it is all the right things, and we're seeing significant opportunities for improvement. Some of them are going to take time because if you put a new innovation idea in the funnel, it might take 18 to 24 months before it comes out and is ready to launch. Some of them are faster, things like distribution, new distribution opportunities where we're underspaced with our existing brands and products, that can go faster. And so that's why when we announced the strategy in June, we said this is a multiyear turnaround, and we said that it's going to take 4 to 6 quarters for this to really all come together. But it's across all of those vectors that we're driving improvement on the front end.

前端發生了很多變化，但都是正確的事情，我們看到了重大的改進機會。其中一些需要時間，因為如果你將一個新的創新想法放入漏斗中，可能需要 18 到 24 個月的時間才能推出並準備好推出。其中一些速度更快，例如分銷、新的分銷機會，我們現有的品牌和產品空間不足，可以更快。這就是為什麼當我們在 6 月宣布該策略時，我們說這是一個多年的轉變，我們說這需要 4 到 6 個季度才能真正實現。但正是在所有這些方面，我們正在推動前端的改進。

I will say -- the other thing I'll say on your question on categories is because the company was operating previously in 7 business units effectively, the capability of each of those business units was highly variable because they were all operating effectively independently. And so we have some business units that are starting from a position of relatively strong capabilities where there's plus-up opportunity but they already were 60% of the way of where we needed to be. And an example of that would be the Writing business, which we're growing market share in. It's our most profitable business. We do have very strong products that are superior in the market that represent great value.

我要說的是，關於您關於類別的問題，我要說的另一件事是，因為該公司之前在7 個業務部門中有效運營，每個業務部門的能力變化很大，因為它們都是獨立有效運作的。因此，我們的一些業務部門起步時能力相對較強，存在增值機會，但它們已經達到了我們所需目標的 60%。寫作業務就是一個例子，我們正在擴大該業務的市場份額。這是我們最賺錢的業務。我們確實擁有非常強大的產品，這些產品在市場上表現出色，並且具有巨大的價值。

There are other categories where there's -- we're starting from almost 0 front-end capability that we need massive improvement. And an example there would be more like the Outdoor & Rec business where in that business, there's more work to do on the capability improvement to get that business back to performing and getting back to growth.

還有其他類別——我們的前端能力幾乎為零，需要大規模改進。一個例子更像是戶外和休閒業務，在該業務中，在能力改進方面還有更多工作要做，以使該業務恢復績效並恢復成長。

And our next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫‧利伯曼 (Lauren Lieberman)。

You've covered so much ground. But I just thought maybe it would be interesting to ask about dialogue with retailers. So you talked about 2 points less in the fourth quarter from eliminating some of these money-losing promotions. But retailers also lose on that. I mean, it's good for your P&L, obviously, and better for the health of the business long term, but that does detract a bit from retailer trends in some of these categories. So I guess what can you tell us about the conversation with retailers, how they feel about the time line of progression, some of the band-aid ripping off you're doing in the near term? And how are they factoring into their sort of planning for next year and thoughts about category growth?

你已經涵蓋了很多內容。但我只是想也許詢問與零售商的對話會很有趣。因此，您談到第四季度因取消一些虧本的促銷活動而減少了 2 個百分點。但零售商也因此遭受損失。我的意思是，這顯然對你的損益有好處，而且從長遠來看對業務的健康發展也更好，但這確實有點偏離了其中一些類別的零售商趨勢。所以我想你能告訴我們關於與零售商的對話嗎？他們對進展時間線有何看法，以及你近期所做的一些創可貼？他們如何考慮明年的計畫和品類成長的想法？

Yes. Thanks, Lauren. And it's been a big focus of ours, as we've talked a little bit about in the past, and it continues to be. I've had top-to-top meetings with several of our top retailers both in the U.S. and internationally. And as we've done those meetings, I would describe our relationships as very strong. And I would say, our relationships with retailers today are significantly better than where we were 2 years ago.

是的。謝謝，勞倫。正如我們過去討論過的那樣，這一直是我們的一大焦點，而且仍然如此。我與美國和國際上的幾家頂級零售商舉行了高層會議。當我們完成這些會議時，我認為我們的關係非常牢固。我想說，我們今天與零售商的關係比兩年前好得多。

And the reason for that is really the implementation of Ovid and the simplification work that we've done. This may be a little bit in the weeds, but if I take an example of our largest retail customer, we used to operate with them with 23 different legal entities, 23 different vendor numbers. We would ship them. We would force them to provide 23 orders. We'd ship them 23 different LTL shipments. It was confusing, chaotic, and we didn't have one voice to that customer. And that's -- I could have picked any number of customers where that was the case.

原因實際上是 Ovid 的實施以及我們所做的簡化工作。這可能有點無關緊要，但如果我以我們最大的零售客戶為例，我們過去曾與他們合作，擁有 23 個不同的法人實體、23 個不同的供應商編號。我們會運送它們。我們會強迫他們提供 23 個訂單。我們向他們運送 23 批不同的零擔貨物。這是令人困惑、混亂的，我們無法向該客戶發出一致的聲音。在這種情況下，我可以選擇任意數量的客戶。

If you look at where we are today, we interface with them with one legal entity, one vendor number. We've converted our shipments from what was probably in the 20s on 20% full truckload to now 80% full truckload shipments. So we are a dramatically better supplier to retailers and they recognize that and seen the improvement that we've made. And we are the largest, in most of our retail customers, the largest general merchandise supplier to them. They want us to win. They recognize the journey that we're on and they're leaning in to help support us.

如果你看看我們今天的處境，你會發現我們透過一個法人實體、一個供應商編號與他們互動。我們已經將我們的貨運量從 20 年代的 20% 整車裝運量轉變為現在的 80% 整車裝運量。因此，我們對零售商來說是一個更好的供應商，他們認識到這一點並看到了我們所取得的進步。在我們的大多數零售客戶中，我們是最大的，他們最大的百貨供應商。他們希望我們獲勝。他們認識到我們正在經歷的旅程，並且願意幫助支持我們。

We're not making any of these choices in a vacuum. When we make these choices to improve the structural economics, we have very open dialogues with our retail customers so that we don't surprise them, we don't leave them in a bind. But we've got to make the right choices for Newell, and we're trying to do this in a way that's a win-win partnership with them. And I think largely, the retail -- our largest customers are very supportive of that.

我們不會在真空中做出任何選擇。當我們做出這些改善結構經濟學的選擇時，我們會與零售客戶進行非常開放的對話，這樣我們就不會令他們感到驚訝，不會讓他們陷入困境。但我們必須為紐厄爾做出正確的選擇，我們正在努力以一種與他們雙贏的伙伴關係的方式做到這一點。我認為很大程度上，零售業——我們最大的客戶非常支持這一點。

And our final question comes from the line of Filippo Falorni with Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

First question on the inventory side. You guys both mentioned that you feel like you're at the tail end of the inventory reductions. I guess what gives you the confidence that, that's the case, in case the categories from a consumption level were to continue to be soft? Is there any risk of a further reduction into next year? And then from -- second question on a pricing standpoint. I know your price actions were justified, but to what extent your worst market share performance was driven by competitors not following on pricing? If you can comment on that would be great.

第一個問題是關於庫存方面的。你們都提到，你們感覺自己正處於庫存削減的尾聲。我想是什麼讓您有信心，在這種情況下，如果消費水平的類別繼續疲軟？明年是否有進一步下調的風險？然後是關於定價角度的第二個問題。我知道你們的價格行為是合理的，但你們最糟糕的市佔率表現在多大程度上是由競爭對手不遵守定價造成的？如果您能發表評論那就太好了。

Yes. Let me start with the inventory. So one of the things that we do is we measure weeks of coverage at our top retailers. And we get the data directly from the retailers of how much inventory they have on hand. And as we saw their weeks of cover accelerate last year when the market shifted in Q3 of last year, we've now seen their weeks of cover come back down. And actually, as we've implemented Ovid in the U.S. market, our delivery times are much -- are also much shorter, which has allowed them to reduce weeks of cover even more.

是的。讓我從庫存開始。因此，我們所做的一件事就是衡量頂級零售商的覆蓋週數。我們直接從零售商那裡取得他們手上有多少庫存的數據。當去年第三季市場發生變化時，我們看到他們的周覆蓋率增加，現在我們看到他們的周覆蓋率有所回落。事實上，當我們在美國市場實施 Ovid 時，我們的交貨時間也短得多，這使他們能夠進一步減少幾週的承保時間。

And so from our view of weeks of cover, we believe that largely the weeks of cover are in a good place and we think retailers would be taking significant out-of-stock risk if they go lower on weeks of cover. To your question on if the consumption continues to go down, couldn't that allow -- because you maintain the same weeks of cover, could that allow another amount of inventory reduction? The answer to that is yes, but it's not going to be anywhere near the magnitude of what we've seen over the last 9 to 12 months.

因此，從我們對週覆蓋率的看法來看，我們認為，週覆蓋率基本上處於良好狀態，並且我們認為，如果零售商的周覆蓋率下降，他們將面臨重大的缺貨風險。對於您關於消費量是否繼續下降的問題，這不能允許 - 因為您保持相同的周數，這是否可以允許進一步減少庫存？答案是肯定的，但它不會達到我們在過去 9 到 12 個月所看到的程度。

On the pricing question, I think that we have largely led pricing because we are the market-leading brands in most of the categories in which we compete. I would say broadly, we've seen competition follow for the most part because everybody was dealing with the same input cost inflation and there wasn't really an opportunity for them not to follow. However, there are selective cases and selective businesses where we priced and competition has not fully followed. And we are monitoring those situations. And if we need to, we will react appropriately to make sure that we're maintaining our market share.

關於定價問題，我認為我們在很大程度上主導了定價，因為我們在我們競爭的大多數類別中都是市場領先的品牌。我想說，廣泛地說，我們看到競爭在很大程度上隨之而來，因為每個人都在應對相同的投入成本通膨，而且他們沒有真正的機會不跟隨。然而，也有一些選擇性的案例和選擇性的業務，我們的定價和競爭並沒有完全遵循。我們正在監控這些情況。如果需要，我們將做出適當反應，以確保我們保持市場份額。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. A replay of today's call will be available later today on the company's website at ir.newellbrands.com. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。今天晚些時候，我們將在公司網站 ir.newellbrands.com 上提供今天電話會議的重播。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。