NorthWestern Energy Group Inc (NWE) 2008 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentleman, thank you for standing by and welcome to the NorthWestern Corporation's year end 2008 financial results. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Dan Rausch. Please go ahead, sir.

  • Dan Rausch - IR

  • Good afternoon and welcome to NorthWestern Corporation's December 31, 2008 year end financial results conference call and webcast. NorthWestern's results have been released and the release is available on our website at www.northwesternenergy.com. We also filed our 10-K pre-market open this morning. Joining us on the call are Bob Rowe, President and CEO, Brian Bird, Chief Financial Officer, Miggie Cramblit General Counsel and Kendall Kliewer, Controller.

  • This presentation contains forward-looking statements within meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Litigation Securities Act of 1995. These statements are based on upon our current expectations and speak only as of this date. Our actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed in our forward-looking statements, and as a result of various factors and uncertainties including those listed in our annual report on Form 10-K, recently forthcoming 10-Q's, recent form 8-K's and other filings with the SEC.

  • We undertake no obligation to revise or publicly update our forward-looking statements for any reason. Following this presentation, those joining us by teleconference will be able to ask questions. A replay of today's call will be made available beginning at 3:00 pm Eastern time today through March 13th, 2009. To access the replay, dial 800-475-6701, then access code 984444. That number again is 800-475-6701, and then code 984444. A replay of the webcast can be accessed from our website.

  • With that I will turn it over to President and CEO, Bob Rowe.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Thank, Dan. As many of you, I've be the -- I've been with NorthWestern for about six months now. We've done a tremendous amount during that time. I'm going to start the call by saying that I'm deeply impressed by our employees at all levels of the Company. And particularly by their determination to provide real value for shareholders and for customers alike. We worked very hard to communicate this commitment to all of our stakeholders and then to live up to the it.

  • Thanks to hard work, discipline, and a long term perspective, NorthWest Energy ended 2008 with an increase in net income of 27% over the prior year. We also took significant steps toward our goal of being a fully regulated Company. In Montana, the Montana Public Service Commission approved adding to utility rate base our 30% interest in Colstrip Unit IV effective January 1st of this year. This is the beginning step in becoming a vertically integrated utility in Montana. We no longer have any significant unregulated assets. Again, this was an important milestone for the Company.

  • In South Dakota, of course, our electric business continues to be and always has been vertically integrated. We've worked very hard and earned an increase in our debt ratings and our stock performance, notably exceeded the utility indices. More specifically, our net income improved to $67.6 million for 2008 compared with $53.2 million in 2007. For the shareholders, this meant that the Board was able to improve increasing our quarterly dividend to $0.335 per share, and we also completed a share buyback program of approximately 3.1 million shares for approximately $78 million.

  • In addition, we settled the Montana electric and natural gas generate rate filing. That resulted in a $15 million increase in base rates, which was the first such increase to base rates in nearly eight years in Montana. In Montana, we filed for advanced approval with the PSC for constructing the 150 megawatt Mill Creek generating station, which is necessary to meet the Company's -- to meet our regulating needs. The hearing on our Mill Creek application is set for later this month. If approved, the plant could come on line by the end of 2010.

  • Just last month, the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, or DEQ issued the air quality permit for Mill Creek related to the MSTI project, our major transmission initiative. In June of 2008 we filed the Montana major facilities citing act application with the Montana DEQ, and that application was deemed complete in December 2008. This was, of course, a significant milestone in that project. So we're delighted with our operational progress and our increased earnings during 2008. We look forward to next year. We are increasing guidance for 2009 -- or we're initiating guidance for 2009 of $1.85 to $2 per fully diluted share.

  • And now it's my pleasure to turn the speaker over to our CFO, Brian Bird to discuss our 2008 financial results in more detail. Brian.

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Thanks, Bob. As Bob mentioned, financially and otherwise, the Company had a good year in 2008.

  • Consolidated net income was $67.6 million, or $1.77 per diluted share, for 2008 compared with consolidated net income of $53.2 million, or $1.44 per diluted share for 2007. Operating income was $170.2 million compared with operating income of $140.1 million during 2007. The main drivers to our operating income and earnings increased during 2008 were as follows. First, gross margins increased by $30.4 million, primarily due to the combination of increased electric rates in Montana and increased gas rates in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska of approximately $20 million.

  • We also had 11.7% increase in volumes in our regulated gas segment due primarily to colder winter weather. Offsetting these increases were primarily a reduction in unregulated electric margin due to lower average contracted prices, and lower recovery of property taxes and revenues, primarily as a result of lower property taxes in Montana in 2008. For the year ending December 31st, 2008, our total operating expenses were effectively flat as compared to 2007 but included some items worth noting. First and foremost, we had increased pension expense of about $8 million compared with 2007.

  • You may recall during the third quarter we thought our pension expense would actually increase about $15 million for 2008, but we did receive an accounting order from the MPSC in December than enabled to us spread the increased pension expense over five years, thereby reducing the impact down to -- to the $8 million for 2008 I mentioned earlier. We also experienced increased labor and benefit costs in 2008 due to a combination of compensation increases, severance costs, and higher medical claims. In addition, higher professional fees related to the Colstrip Unit IV transaction and other matters occurred.

  • An increase in depreciation expense due to the purchase of our previously leased interest in Colstrip Unit IV and finally, we had lower environmental expense in 2007 due to a settlement to recover manufactured gas plant cleanup costs in our South Dakota natural gas rate case. These increased costs were offset by insurance reimbursements and settlement proceeds we received in 2008, also a decrease in property taxes of about $7 million, due to a $4.6 million property tax refund in Montana as a result of a settlement with the Montana Department of Revenue. And a reduction of approximately $2.4 million due to lower property tax valuation in Montana as compared with 2007. Finally, we had lower lease costs related to the purchase of our previously leased interest in Colstrip Unit IV.

  • Below the operating expense line, our interest expense increased approximately $7 million, primarily due to additional debt incurred with the purchase of our previously leased interest in Colstrip Unit IV. Our fourth quarter net income for 2008 increased by $2.8 million(Sic-see press release) over the same period in 2007. The increase is primarily due to rate increases, litigation settlement proceeds, and lower 2008 property taxes. These items were partially offset by credit to customers, related to the property tax settlement, a change in the calculation by the MPSC to reduce the allocation of property taxes to Montana electric retail customers. Lower environmental expense in 2007 due to a settlement to recover MGP cleanup costs in our South Dakota natural gas rate case, and finally, the increase in interest expense.

  • Let's move our attention to the balance sheet. Our balance sheet and cash flow remain strong. As of December 31st, 2008, cash and cash equivalents were $11.3 million compared with $12.8 million at 12/31/07. The Company had revolver availability of $86.2 million(Sic-see press release) at December 31st, 2008, compared with $158.7 million at 12/31/07. This decrease in revolver availability was due to the share buyback program of approximately $78 million that was completed during the third quarter of 2008. Total debt at December 31st, 2008 was $862 million compared with $806 million at 12/31/07. And the Company maintains a strong long-term debt to total capitalization ratio of approximately 53% at December 31st, 2008.

  • Cash provided by operating activities total $198 million during 2008 and was relatively flat when compared with $202 million during 2007. The Company used $124.4 million for investment activities during the year ended December 31st, 2008, compared with $256.5 million during the year ended December 31st, 2007. Primary difference from last year is that the Company used about $140 million in 2007 to purchase the previously leased interest in Colstrip Unit IV. Capital expenditures for the year ended 2008 were $124 million compared with $117 million in 2007. The Company used $75 million in financing activities during the year ended December 31st, 2008, compared to finance activities providing about $65 million for the year ended 2007.

  • First, the Company used approximately $78 million to repurchase 3.1 million shares of our common stock during 2008. The repurchases occurred from July to September, and the average repurchase price is approximately $24.83. Second, proceeds from Warren Exercises provided about $69 million in late 2007. In summary, our cash and liquidity positions are strong. We have two debt facilities maturing at the end of 2009, the first is for our $200 million unsecured revolving line of credit that matures on November 1st, 2009. The current balance on that line is $109 million. The second is our $100 million nonrecourse loan for the purchase of the previously leased interest in Colstrip Unit IV which matures December 31st, 2009.

  • Our current debt financing plans for 2009 include issuing up to $350 million of long-term senior debt securities to refinance our Colstrip loan maturing in December 2009, financing a portion of the proposed Mill Creek generation project, in addition funding utility capital expenditures and providing funds for general corporate purposes. In addition, we plan to enter into a new revolving credit facility with availability between $200 million to $250 million to replace our existing revolving credit facility maturing in November 2009. The timing of those financings will depend on when we can opportunistically enter the debt markets.

  • Also, the Company is rated investment grade by Moody's, S&P and Fitch. In January 2009, Fitch upgraded both our secured and unsecured debt by another notch. In addition, Moody's still has us on positive watch.

  • Now let me talk about our 2009 earnings outlook. Our guidance for fully diluted earnings in 2009 is expected to be between $1.85 to $2 per share. Our assumptions include the following expectations. 2009 net income will increase by approximately $9 million or $0.25 a share as a result of the inclusion of our interest in Colstrip Unit IV and regulated electric rate base. Also, assuming pension expense will be flat with 2008 pension expense and assumes an 8% return on assets during 2009.

  • Regarding volumes, our retail electric volumes will be flat compared to 2000 -- 2008 volumes. Residential commercial natural gas volumes will also be relatively flat compared to 2008 volumes. Wholesale electric volumes in South Dakota will decrease due to a planned outage in 2009. We're also assuming fully diluted average shares outstanding of 36.5 million and normal weather in the Company's electric and natural gas service territories for 2009. So basically, we expect 2009 earnings to grow between 5% and 13% over 2008 earnings of $1.77 per share.

  • Now let me it back over to Bob.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Thank you, Brian. I'd like to discuss our prospects for growing the Company. Our service territory is located in portions of the United States that are generally insulated from large economic fluctuations. To be clear, we are not immune, but generally we do see more stable economies in our region. As many of you know, we previously announced three significant transmission growth projects, which I will turn to after first discussing our supply initiatives.

  • On the generation side, several items are worth mentioning. Earlier I stated that our interest in Colstrip Unit IV was approved for inclusion in utility rate base in Montana effective January 1st, 2009 at a market determined value of $407 million. Brian previously noted the resulting increase in our earnings. More importantly, this unit will initially supply an estimated 13% of our Montana customers base load requirements through 2010 and about 25% thereafter at prices we anticipate will be more stable and lower than the prices in the marketplace.

  • The Montana commission I believe indicated a strong recognition of the benefits to customers of rate base supply and is given very constructive policy direction that continue -- that can continue to guide us. In addition, as I mentioned, we have another generation project in front of the Montana PSC right now. The Mill Creek generating station will provide a regulating as seat, generation plant designed to keep the overall system in balance. Together, Colstrip IV and Mill Creek will allow us to continue adding diverse cost effective resources including renewable resources to our Montana rate base.

  • On the transmission side of the business, as we've stated previously, our Montana transmission assets strategically located to contribute to the expansion of the transmission grid in the western United States. This expansion will be driven in particular by demand for wind and other renewable resources to meet renewable portfolio standards throughout the west. Interest in new generation projects in Montana remain strong with over 5,000 megawatts of proposed generation seeking to connect to our system. Not all of these generation projects will be built but there continues to be strong interest for developing new generation. Again, predominantly wind, in Montana.

  • With any of these generation projects, construction of new transmission lines is critical for transporting power to loads both within and outside of Montana, as well as to alleviate congestion issues that are prevalent on existing lines. It is significant that the typical development time for a wind farm is much less than for a transmission project. Again, creating a sense of real urgency about transmission expansion. And this sense of urgency is driven by national policy, as you are aware, by concern within the region, and by state policy as well.

  • The three transmission projects that we have proposed are, first, an upgrade to our existing 500kv Colstrip transmission line running from east to west out of Montana to the pacific northwest. Second, the Montana collector system, and third, the Mountain States transmission intertie, or MSTI. I will talk more specifically about all these projects, but before I do, it's important that I emphasize that we will not -- we will only move forward with any of these projects when they make economic sense. We have no appetite at this Company to force these projects to move along at a pace that fails to match the demand for the particular project.

  • I will start with our proposed Mill Creek generating plant. The Mill Creek plant will be designed as a generating facility that will serve, again as a regulating resource and will provide services to our native service territory. As a system operator, NorthWestern must adhere to stringent federal regulations to balance the moment to moment variations between load and supply. And that's particularly critical with wind resources which continue to come on to our system.

  • We received a final air quality permit from the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, the or DEQ, just last month. In addition, in August 2008 we requested advanced approval from the MPSC related to Mill Creek and we expect a ruling by the PSC during the second quarter of 2009. Capital cost of the project is estimated to be around $200 million. The project is expected to have a capacity between 125 megawatts and 150 megawatts, which equates to approximately 85 megawatts of regulation capability. The hearing concerning Mill Creek is expected to begin on February 25th at the PSC in Helena, Montana. The PSC is required to issue its decision during the second quarter of this year. The entire filing can be found on our website.

  • Now let me move to the proposed upgrade to the Colstrip 500kv line. In August 2008, we announced that we and the other ownership partners in the existing Colstrip transmission system would work together to identify and evaluate one or more potential transmission system upgrades to the existing system to accommodate the transmission of wind and other renewable generation, again primarily in the pacific northwest. The other partners are Portland General Electric, Puget Sound Energy, Pacific Corp, and [Evista]. Additionally, BPA, [Bonnital] Power Administration has now decided to join this effort.

  • The parties that have agreed to share the cost of conducting an independent review of the power transmission alternatives and potential ownership structures. Each party has agreed to contribute up to $100,000 toward the engineering review. The ownership structure will be determined once the projects, if any, are identified and agreed to by the participating utilities.

  • At this point, we anticipate the capital spend for the entire undertaking could range between $200 million and $250 million. Our portion of the total capital on the project would depend on the ownership structure determined once the independent review has been concluded. Assuming all five partners decide to participate in building the project, our portion would likely be between $50 million and $60 million. The project, depending on outcomes of the study, would be completed by the end of 2011.

  • In addition, we're also looking at constructing a collector system to gather wind resources in Montana. You could think of these almost as a series of funnels. As stated earlier, interest in Montana energy resources continues to grow. We recently filed with the federal energy regulatory commission to conduct an open season on this proposed collector system of up to five new transmission lines in Montana that would connect new generation, primarily wind farms, and our proposed MSTI line. Most of the new proposed wind generation that would be served by the collector system would be located in north central, central, south central, and eastern Montana, regions that have very high quality wind.

  • While the regional economy certainly has slowed, utilities across the west are still required to meet state renewable portfolio standards for their customers over the next several years. So the project, the collector system is designed to collect renewable energy generation resources from these various concentrated geographic areas, and deliver that energy across the transmission system to facilitate access to market. And again, much of this is driven by the strong commitment to RPS standards throughout the western United States. The project is expected to cost between $150 million and $200 million and to be completed by the end of 2014.

  • Now, moving on to the Mountain States transmission inter-tie, or MSTI. The proposed MSTI 500kv line would extend from a new substation to be built near Townsend, Montana, to the existing bora or midpoint substation located in Idaho. The transmission line's main purpose will be to meet requests for transmission service from customers and relieve constraints in the high voltage transmission network in the region. The MSTI line provides additional capacity on a historically constrained path and connects expanding new markets in Idaho, Utah, and the southwest United States. We recently filed the Montana major facilities sighting act application and will be submitting the federal application soon.

  • We have selected a preferred route as well as two alternative routes which will be reviewed as part of the environmental review. MSTI is current undergoing environmental review with a draft EDIS due in mid 2009. The line would be approximately 400 miles in length and would cost around $800 million to $1 billion to construct. We recently filed with the FERC a second open season on the MSTI line to allow new primarily renewable participants the opportunity to reserve capacity on that line and provide existing participants an opportunity to reaffirm their existing reservations.

  • NorthWestern currently has 539 megawatts of expressed interest in the project and we're permitting this line as a 500kv transmission line. However, we ultimately will match the capacity of the line to the market demand at the time of construction. Based on our current time line we anticipate the line could be in service by 2014. Now let me turn my attention to South Dakota.

  • ITC holdings Company recently announced that it is working to develop a 765kv line which they call the Green Tower Express. This would be a network of transmission lines that would facilitate the movement of approximately 12,000 megawatts of power from the wind abundant areas to populated areas. The Green Power Express project would traverse portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana, and would ultimately include approximately 3,000 miles of extra high voltage, 765 kilovolt transmission in and near Chicago. This new project addresses a recognized lack of electric transmission infrastructure that is needed to integrate wind within the region.

  • Portions of the Green Power Express fall within our South Dakota service territory. This project is in the very preliminary stages and will be evolving over the next several years. The path and the number of miles will obviously determine the total cost of the project. None of that has been determined, and may not be determined for a number of years. At this point, the Green Power Express is essentially conceptual, and there will be more to discuss about the project in the future. But we announced our participation now because we do want people to know that we're eager to be part of any energy solution that is proposed in our backyard, certainly in our South Dakota service territory. As a result we look forward to exploring potential opportunities with ITC and we are excited to be working toward providing renewable energy solutions in and around our South Dakota service territory as well.

  • So, in summary we're very pleased with the results of the year and with our financial position. The Company has achieved and maintains solid ratings the ratings agencies, the rated investment grade by Moody's, S&P and Fitch. We have modest debt maturity later in the year. No need to raise capital currently. Our earnings in 2008 grew 27%, over 2007. And we expect 2009 earnings to grow between 5% and 13% over 2008.

  • We operate in a stable part of the United States that typically avoids the highs and the lows of other regions of the US economy. Then finally, we're optimistic about future prospects of the Company to enhance shareholder value and to provide great service to all of our customers. The utility industry is being called on to help lead the nation out of recession and to address multiple natural resource issues. We at NorthWestern are very pleased to be in a position to do our part and to do so responsibly and prudently producing value for our customers and for our shareholders.

  • With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give instructions for comments and questions. Thank you all.

  • Operator

  • Thank you ladies and gentlemen. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus. Please go ahead.

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. How are you?

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Great, how are you Chris?

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Good. Can you just review the -- in the fourth quarter, the tax and insurance recovery issues, what was nonrecurring?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • We had a $6 million insurance recovered. I would deem that as nonrecurring item going forward. I'm not sure if we had -- I would have to take a look, Chris, I think that was the most significant recovery during the quarter.

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Okay. Also, I gather from the income statement that the shares are average basic. Do you have the diluted shares?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Hang on one second, Chris.

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Average diluted?

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • 37,976.

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Okay. Is that the quarter or for the year?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • What's that?

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • That 37,976 is diluted?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Yes.

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Okay. And in the guidance, are you including anything for unusual tax or insurance recoveries for 2009?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Chris, we have nothing in there that we don't already know that we'll receive.

  • Chris Ellinghaus - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • And next we have the line of Brian Russo. Please go ahead.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Good afternoon, guys.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Hi, Brian.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Hi, you mentioned earlier that your regional economy is somewhat insulated from what we're seeing around the country, but yet you are forecasting flat electricity sales. I'm wondering, is it just the year-over-year comps, because last year was a solid sales year, or was there something else going on?

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Again, I want to be careful what we say about the economy. We're expecting new hookups to be relatively stable. We're not experiencing some of the difficulties with collections that other utilities are, but in this economy, stable is a pretty good place to be.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Okay. So what should we look for, for you guys, for there to be a bias towards up the side of your guidance range?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Could you say that again, Brian?

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • What should we look for, in terms of a bias towards the up side of your guidance range? Better sales growth than you originally forecasted?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Certainly that would help, Brian.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Okay. And then --

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • I can tell you that expectations in terms of expense growth to be different than we've currently forecasted as well.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Okay. And is it safe to assume that these growth projects, excluding MSTI, can be funded with external debt and internally generated cash?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Yes, and remember, on MSTI, let's first of all talk about Mill Creek. That would certainly be with external debt and internally generated cash. I've mentioned previously if we were to do MSTI, there would be a point in time where we would have to raise equity associated with that transaction.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • And have you been in talks with anyone in terms of forming some sort of partnership to lessen the balance sheet burden if you guys pursue MSTI?

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • We don't comment on specific negotiations of that kind. We are, as a general matter, open to partnerships.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Okay. And also, in the guidance, what kind of actual ROE are you assuming?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • When we actually calculate our guidance, we can back into an ROE, but that's not how we look at providing guidance, in terms of an ROE. We do expect ROE in '09 to be better than it was in '08. That's all I will say, Brian.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Can you tell us what it was in '08?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • ROE was approximately 9%.

  • Brian Russo - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Thank you, Brian.

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • One question, response to Mr. Ellinghaus' question earlier. I believe the number I read to Chris was the basic number. The fully diluted number is 38.277. 38.277 was the number I wanted to use. My apologies.

  • Operator

  • And next we have the line of Paul Ridzon. Please go ahead, you're open.

  • Paul Ridzon - Analyst

  • Good afternoon and congratulations on a solid year. Where do your NOLs stand at year end '08?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Paul, they didn't change much during the year. The NOLs are right at $350 million. The reason it didn't change, Paul, is that we were able to utilize bonus appreciation to a great extent during 2008.

  • Paul Ridzon - Analyst

  • Are we still looking for the NOLs to last into 2012?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Yes.

  • Paul Ridzon - Analyst

  • And there was no mark to market impact. That now flows through directly, correct? That's accrual accounting now?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • Yes. And I want to clarify my earlier answer. On an unreserved basis, the NOLs last through 2012.

  • Paul Ridzon - Analyst

  • Last through 2012, okay. Lastly, was this the normal time when would you address the dividend, or was the June increase out of phase?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • You know what, to be quite honest, we haven't been all that consistent. We've changed dividend policy. We talked about dividend policy frequently. Every quarter we talk about it. We felt this time it was appropriate to make change.

  • Paul Ridzon - Analyst

  • And just -- the stability of the economy, what do you think gives that you luxury as opposed to other regions?

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • It starts with the housing sector. There wasn't the run-up in most of our region that you saw in other areas. As a result, there weren't the huge numbers of foreclosures generally. Parts of our economy were never as overheated as were some others. They tended to be more slow and steady. And the basis remained relatively stable. Again, that's not to over sell the situation. We're monitoring many of our larger accounts quite closely. We're being mindful of what the situation is. But again, as I mentioned, it's a better situation than companies are facing in many other regions.

  • Paul Ridzon - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Next we have the line of [Maduli Murti]. Please go ahead, you're open.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • Good afternoon.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Good afternoon.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • Couple of things; one -- several things have been addressed. With regards to NOLs on your December presentation, on your web page, you talk about a potentially large tax payment sometime after 2012. It equaled the reserve amount. Do you have an estimate right now or a range of what that payment would be in 2012 or post 2012?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • I don't have that information handy at this time.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • Have you provided a range or estimate in the past?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • No. I don't believe we've done so.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • How would one go about to try to estimate something like that?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • That's a great question. We haven't talked about that publicly. At the point in time that we provided that calculation -- a comfortable share and that we can share that at that time.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • Okay. When you looked at your various growth opportunities it didn't appear to me on the surface that the transmission projects have any potential incentive returns compared to some of the other ones that we've seen in other parts of the country. Is that simply a matter of being conservative at this point, or are there inherent characteristics that these projects, which would not permit them to potentially qualify for FERC incentive returns?

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • No, we are, in fact, being conservative, as you suggested. But our analysis does believe that FERC incentives would be appropriate.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • Would that be for all the transition projects listed or only for the MSTI project?

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Clearly for MSTI, we believe appropriately for the collector system as well.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • And that will -- that issue will be resolved when roughly for the collector system?

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • We would expect in 2009.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • Okay. One last question. With regards to your pay-out goal, can you talk a little bit about your philosophy given that you have capital opportunities here and meanwhile you have been able to fund a lot of things internally and still provide a healthy yield, how you balance the growth opportunities and outside capital with payout ratio as well as a competitive current income?

  • Brian Bird - CFO

  • That's a great question. We talked a lot about the dividend in light of current economic environment that's going on, and from our perspective, as you pointed out, our capital project's going forward. We believe that a slight increase in our dividend is still merited. We also want to consider, if you take a look at the midpoint of our guidance, and take a look at our dividend payout, we would be within that 60% to 70% range. And that's been a goal of ours, and we expect to do in that 2009. It's something we've committed in to terms of getting to that targeted range, and -- but at the same time we didn't want to grow our dividends too much because we do have capital needs that are increasing over time.

  • Unidentified Participant - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Speaker's no one else is queue'd up Please continue with any further comment.

  • Bob Rowe - President and CEO

  • Well, thank you all very much. We appreciate your interest and look forward to meeting with you in the future.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available for replay from today at 3:00 p.m. eastern, and it will run through the 13th of March. To access the replay, dial 1-800-475-6701, and then you will be prompted for an access code. The access code is 984444. Once again, the 800 number for the replay is 1-800-475-6701. The access code is 984444. Again that will be ready from 3:00 p.m. eastern today through midnight, March 13th.

  • That does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive TeleConference Service. You may disconnect.