Northwest Bancshares Inc (NWBI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, thank you for joining us, and welcome to Northwest Bancshares's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. This session is being recorded, and playback will be available on our Investor Relations website. (Operator Instructions)

早安，感謝您的加入，歡迎參加西北銀行 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中，回放將在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。（操作員指令）

Now I would like to introduce Michael Perry, who recently joined Northwest as Managing Director of Corporate Strategy and Development and Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹麥可佩里，他最近加入西北航空，擔任企業策略與發展和投資者關係董事總經理。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, operator. Welcome to Northwest Bancshares's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. It's great to be here. Joining me today are Louis Torchio, President and CEO of Northwest Bancshares; Doug Schosser, our Chief Financial Officer; Sean Morrow, our Treasurer; and TK Creal, our Chief Credit Officer. During this call, we will refer to information included in the supplemental earnings release presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website.

大家早安，謝謝你，接線生。歡迎參加西北銀行 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我很高興來到這裡。今天與我一起出席的還有西北銀行總裁兼執行長 Louis Torchio； Doug Schosser，我們的財務長；我們的財務長 Sean Morrow；以及我們的首席信貸官TK Creal。在本次電話會議中，我們將參考補充收益報告中包含的信息，該信息可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。

If you'd like to read our forward-looking and other related disclosures, you can find them on slide 2. Thank you. And now I'll hand it over to Lou.

如果您想閱讀我們的前瞻性和其他相關揭露，您可以在投影片 2 上找到。謝謝。現在我將把它交給 Lou。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us to discuss our quarterly results. I'm pleased to report that we delivered solid returns in the fourth quarter, and we're happy with our core financial performance, which Doug will cover momentarily. In particular, last quarter, we saw a significant improvement in our net interest margin as well as in our efficiency ratio.

大家早安。感謝您加入我們討論我們的季度業績。我很高興地報告，我們在第四季度取得了穩健的回報，我們對我們的核心財務業績感到滿意，Doug 將立即介紹這一點。特別是上個季度，我們的淨利差和效率比率都有了顯著提高。

This continues to demonstrate that we are delivering on our commitment to sustainable growth. Thanks to our company-wide focus on deposit gathering while maintaining near best-in-class cost of funds, we continue to maintain a stable and strong funding base. In addition, we were able to reduce classified loans, helping us further eliminate risk from the balance sheet.

這繼續表明我們正在履行對永續成長的承諾。由於我們全公司都注重存款收集，同時保持接近最佳的資金成本，我們繼續保持穩定而強勁的資金基礎。此外，我們也能夠減少分類貸款，幫助我們進一步消除資產負債表中的風險。

All these results can be attributed to the talent, hard work and thought put forth each day by the middle of our Northwest team. I want to thank them for their continued dedication to our company's success as well as their focus on our customers and communities. As we have reported, at Northwest, we are steadfast in our commitment to responsible growth, both organically and through acquisition.

所有這些成果都歸功於我們西北團隊中階成員每天付出的才華、辛勤工作和思考。我要感謝他們對我們公司成功的持續奉獻以及對我們的客戶和社區的關注。正如我們所報導的，在西北航空，我們堅定不移地致力於負責任的成長，無論是透過有機成長還是透過收購實現的成長。

With that, I'm happy to report that last quarter, we announced that we entered into an agreement to acquire Penns Woods Bancorp. This transaction is expected to be completed sometime in the third quarter of this year. This merger is Northwest's largest to date and marks another milestone in our long-term strategy.

我很高興地報告，上個季度我們宣布已達成收購 Penns Woods Bancorp 的協議。預計這筆交易將在今年第三季某個時候完成。這次合併是西北航空迄今為止最大的合併，標誌著我們長期策略的另一個里程碑。

It further connects our Pennsylvania franchise and will make us one of the top 100 largest banks in the nation. Finally, as we have for the previous 120 quarters on behalf of the Board of Directors, I'm pleased to declare a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share to shareholders of record as of February 3, 2025.

它進一步連接了我們的賓州特許經營權，並將使我們成為全美 100 家最大的銀行之一。最後，正如我們代表董事會在過去 120 個季度所做的那樣，我很高興向截至 2025 年 2 月 3 日登記在冊的股東宣布每股 0.20 美元的季度股息。

Now it's my pleasure to introduce Doug Schosser, our Chief Financial Officer, who will take us through our financial results.

現在我很高興介紹我們的財務長 Doug Schosser，他將向我們介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Lou, and good morning, everyone. Before we dive into today's presentation, I'd like to comment on the addition of Michael Perry. In addition to helping us facilitate our M&A strategy, Michael will also lead our company's strategic planning process and our Investor Relations function, serving as a primary point of contact for the investment community. We're really excited to add Michael and his extensive knowledge and experience to the Northwest team.

謝謝你，盧，大家早安。在我們深入討論今天的演講之前，我想對邁克爾·佩里的加入發表評論。除了幫助我們促進我們的併購策略之外，麥可還將領導我們公司的策略規劃流程和投資者關係職能，作為投資界的首要聯絡人。我們非常高興邁克爾能夠加入西北團隊，他將擁有豐富的知識和經驗。

Now let's begin on page 4 of the earnings presentation, where I'll highlight Northwest financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. We reported a net income of $33 million or $0.26 per diluted share. Our net interest margin expanded by 13 basis points this quarter to 3.42%, aided partially by an interest recovery on a nonaccrual loan, which added 6 basis points to that margin.

現在讓我們開始收益報告的第 4 頁，我將重點放在西北航空 2024 年第四季的財務表現。我們報告的淨收入為 3,300 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.26 美元。本季度，我們的淨利差擴大了 13 個基點，至 3.42%，部分原因是由於非應計貸款的利息回收，使該息差增加了 6 個基點。

We continue to see our margin increase due to our continued pricing discipline on our deposit portfolio and our focus on appropriate pricing on our originated loans, supported by more favorable rate environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, our loan portfolio balances were essentially flat. So we do see improvement in our mix as commercial loans increased and the portfolio becomes more commercially weighted.

由於我們持續對存款組合進行定價約束，並專注於對發放貸款進行適當定價，加上更有利的利率環境，我們的利潤率持續增加。與去年同期相比，我們的貸款組合餘額基本上持平。因此，隨著商業貸款的增加以及投資組合的商業權重增加，我們的資產組合確實有所改善。

Deposit balances grew by 8% compared to the fourth quarter a year ago and cost of funds decreased even further as we saw volumes in the higher-yielding savings products declined. Noninterest income increased $12 million for the quarter, which includes a $6 million gain on the sale of the last tranche of our vis-a-vis shares and a $4 million gain related to a low-income [house] ex-credit investment. Noninterest expense increased by 5% or approximately $3 million from the third quarter.

與去年同期第四季相比，存款餘額增加了 8%，而且由於高收益儲蓄產品的數量下降，資金成本進一步下降。本季非利息收入增加了 1,200 萬美元，其中包括出售我們最後一批相對股票的收益 600 萬美元，以及與低收入[房屋]除稅投資相關的 400 萬美元收益。非利息支出較第三季增加 5%，約 300 萬美元。

Credit quality remained strong with overall allowance coverage decreasing to 1.04% of loans from 1.11% last quarter and a year ago. This can be attributed in part to the derisking actions taken within the quarter, including the sale and transfer of certain loans from our books.

信貸品質依然強勁，整體撥備覆蓋率從上季和去年同期的 1.11% 下降至貸款的 1.04%。這在一定程度上歸因於本季採取的去風險行動，包括出售和轉移我們帳簿上的某些貸款。

Finally, our capital position remains strong with an estimated Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets of 13.8% and on December 31 estimated. Now let's delve into additional details. On page 5, you'll see our commercial and industrial loans grew by 6.2% since last quarter and 23.5% year-over-year, while our residential mortgages declined by 6.6% since last year.

最後，我們的資本狀況依然強勁，預計一級資本與風險加權資產比為 13.8%，12 月 31 日為預期。現在讓我們深入了解更多細節。在第 5 頁，您會看到我們的商業和工業貸款自上個季度以來增長了 6.2%，同比增長了 23.5%，而我們的住宅抵押貸款自去年以來下降了 6.6%。

The shift underscores our focus on our commercial banking transformation. Our commercial real estate portfolio shrank by 0.4% since last quarter, reflecting a more desirable loan mix with a higher share of C&I compared to CRE. Our loan yields remained steady this quarter at 5.6%.

這項轉變凸顯了我們對商業銀行轉型的關注。我們的商業房地產投資組合自上個季度以來縮水了 0.4%，反映出貸款組合更加理想，其中 C&I 的佔比高於 CRE。本季我們的貸款收益率保持穩定在 5.6%。

Moving to page 6. Deposits remained strong through the end of 2024 and having grown 2% in the end of 2023. During the last quarter, we recognized the benefits of lower short-term interest rates with a 10-basis point decrease in cost of months. Most deposit growth occurred in the interest-bearing demand products while volumes and higher cost and higher yield savings products continue to slow. The current cost of deposits stands at 1.68%, again, down 10 basis points from the third quarter and still near best-in-class relative to our peers.

移至第 6 頁。截至 2024 年底，存款保持強勁，2023 年底成長了 2%。上個季度，我們認識到了短期利率降低的好處，月利率降低了 10 個基點。存款成長大部分發生在有利息的活期產品中，而數量和高成本、高收益的儲蓄產品的成長持續放緩。目前存款成本為 1.68%，較第三季下降 10 個基點，但仍接近同業最佳水準。

On page 7, we covered the net interest margin, which now stands at 3.42%, up from 3.33% last quarter. Included in the fourth quarter results was an interest recovery on a nonaccrual loan that was paid off in full has added 6 basis points to our margin in the quarter. A more normalized net interest margin in the fourth quarter would be about 3.36%.

在第 7 頁，我們介紹了淨利差，目前為 3.42%，高於上一季的 3.33%。第四季的業績包括一筆已全額償還的非應計貸款的利息回收，這使我們本季的利潤率增加了 6 個基點。第四季更正常的淨利差約為3.36%。

The early tax equivalent net interest income grew by approximately 4% from $112 million last quarter to $115 million this quarter. This marks our second consecutive quarter of net interest income growth reflecting reduced borrowings, higher loan yields and a reduction in our cost of funds. We ended the quarter with a cost of funds of 2.27%, a significant improvement from the last quarter. We have included some additional information on the margin on the next few slides.

早期稅收等值淨利息收入從上季度的 1.12 億美元增長約 4% 至本季的 1.15 億美元。這是我們連續第二季實現淨利息收入成長，反映出借款減少、貸款殖利率上升以及資金成本下降。本季結束時，我們的資金成本為 2.27%，較上一季有顯著改善。我們在接下來的幾張投影片中提供了有關邊距的一些附加資訊。

Now moving to slide 10. Noninterest income increased $12.2 million from the previous quarter driven by an increase in other operating income that included the sale of those B2B shares and the low-income housing tax credit I mentioned earlier.

現在轉到第 10 張投影片。非利息收入較上一季增加了 1,220 萬美元，這得益於包括出售 B2B 股票和我之前提到的低收入住房稅收抵免在內的其他營業收入的增加。

Compared to the year ago quarter, we saw an $11 million increase in noninterest income as a result of our continued growth in trust income, higher gains on sale of SBA loans and BOLI income, partially offset by lower gains on the sale of REO properties and a prior gain on sale of non-SBA loans.

與去年同期相比，非利息收入增加了 1,100 萬美元，這得益於信託收入的持續增長、SBA 貸款銷售收益和 BOLI 收入的增加，但 REO 房產銷售收益的下降和非 SBA 貸款銷售收益的先前增長部分抵消了這一增長。

Slide 11 details our noninterest expense. Our adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 59.5%, reflecting our continued focus on managing expenses without impacting core operations or sacrificing customer service. Regarding credit quality on page 12, our allowance to loans coverage decreased to 1.04% with net charge-offs recorded at 87 basis points including the impacts of our derisking activities taken within the quarter. If we exclude those impacts, our charge-offs would be just 35 basis points.

幻燈片 11 詳細介紹了我們的非利息支出。我們的調整後效率比率提高至 59.5%，反映出我們持續專注於管理費用，同時不影響核心業務或犧牲客戶服務。至於第 12 頁的信用質量，我們的貸款準備金覆蓋率下降至 1.04%，淨沖銷額為 87 個基點，其中包括我們本季採取的去風險活動的影響。如果我們排除這些影響，我們的沖銷額將只有 35 個基點。

Page 13 shows that overall credit performance remained strong with nonperforming assets holding steady at 0.54%, while 30-day loan delinquencies saw a slight increase 20 basis points. Classified loans decreased to 2.44% of total loans and our coverage ratio on nonperforming loans increased to 188% from 162% recorded in the third quarter.

第 13 頁顯示，整體信貸表現依然強勁，不良資產率穩定在 0.54%，而 30 天貸款拖欠率小幅上升了 20 個基點。分類貸款佔總貸款的比例下降至 2.44%，不良貸款覆蓋率從第三季的 162% 上升至 188%。

Slide 14 highlights our commercial loan concentration showcasing a diverse portfolio. Strong underwriting has helped us avoid many CRE-specific issues, and we have minimal exposure to large metro office or rent-controlled markets. With the success of 2024, we have entered 2025 with significant momentum.

投影片 14 重點介紹了我們的商業貸款集中度，展示了多元化的投資組合。強大的核保能力幫助我們避免了許多 CRE 特有的問題，我們對大型城市辦公室或租金管制市場的風險敞口最小。繼2024年的成功之後，我們以強勁的勢頭邁入2025年。

I'd like to review our 2025 guidance, which can be found on slide 16. We will still continue to focus on responsible and profitable loan growth in the commercial space, particularly C&I lending. We anticipate low single-digit loan and deposit growth will manage deposit costs while balancing client expectations and market preferences, allowing for continued modest net interest margin expansion.

我想回顧我們的 2025 年指導方針，可以在幻燈片 16 上找到。我們仍將繼續專注於商業領域負責任且有利可圖的貸款成長，特別是商業和工業貸款。我們預計，低個位數的貸款和存款成長將管理存款成本，同時平衡客戶期望和市場偏好，從而允許淨利差繼續適度擴大。

We expect noninterest income to be in the range of $124 million to $129 million for the full year. We will keep expense growth in the low single digits in 2025 as we shift our focus to creating positive operating leverage and balance expense growth and our long-term investments.

我們預計全年非利息收入在 1.24 億美元至 1.29 億美元之間。到 2025 年，我們將把費用成長率保持在較低的個位數，因為我們將把重點轉向創造積極的經營槓桿，平衡費用成長和長期投資。

Both our tax rate and net charge-offs are expected to normalize in 2025 as our net charge-offs will remain within our normalized range of 25 to 35 basis points, and our tax rate will remain unchanged. Our guidance excludes any impact from the recently announced acquisition of Pens Woods.

我們的稅率和淨沖銷預計將在 2025 年正常化，因為我們的淨沖銷將保持在 25 至 35 個基點的正常範圍內，並且我們的稅率將保持不變。我們的指引不包括最近宣布的收購 Pens Woods 的任何影響。

On behalf of the entire leadership team and the Board of Directors, thank you for joining our call this morning. I will now turn the call over to the operator who will facilitate the live Q&A session.

我代表整個領導團隊和董事會感謝您參加今天上午的電話會議。我現在將把電話轉給接線員，接線員將主持現場問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Tim Switzer, KBW.

提姆‧斯威策，KBW。

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. We appreciate the detailed guide you provided in the slide deck here. Can you clarify real quick for the noninterest income outlook. Does that also exclude the impact of Penns Woods and what's driving that growth there?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我們感謝您在幻燈片中提供的詳細指南。您能否快速澄清一下非利息收入的前景。這是否也排除了賓州森林的影響以及推動那裡成長的因素？

Yeah. All of the guidance we're providing excludes the impact from Penns Woods, and we are focused on driving better fee income performance and more consistent fee income performance strategically within the firm. So that's an expectation that we'll be able to generate that type of activity through the course of the year.

是的。我們提供的所有指導均不包括 Penns Woods 的影響，我們專注於在公司內部策略上推動更好的費用收入表現和更一致的費用收入表現。因此，我們期望能夠在全年開展此類活動。

I think we also provided more of a numerical guide only because we had so many things rolling through fee income this year that were a little bit unique like the securities restructure that we wanted to be transparent with where we were targeting fee income.

我認為我們也提供了更多的數位指導，因為今年我們在費用收入方面有很多事情有點獨特，例如證券重組，我們希望對我們的費用收入目標保持透明。

Yeah. No, it's super helpful. I appreciate you doing that. And if we think about the NII outlook with Penns Woods, the rate movements have been pretty extreme over the last month or so. Can you talk about, I guess, first, maybe how that's changed, you expected tangible book value dilution? And then what's the expected purchase accounting as of most recently with the change in the yield curve.

是的。不，它非常有用。我很感激你這麼做。如果我們考慮 Penns Woods 的 NII 前景，就會發現過去一個月左右利率變動相當劇烈。首先，您能否談談這種情況如何變化，您預期有形帳面價值會稀釋嗎？那麼，隨著殖利率曲線的變化，最近的預期購買會計是什麼？

Yeah, we're not intending to provide updated guidance on the Penns acquisition until we get much closer to the closing date because as you know, all of that will constantly change with our stock -- with changes in our stock price.

是的，我們不打算在接近完成日期之前提供有關 Penns 收購的最新指導，因為如你所知，所有這些都會隨著我們的股票價格的變化而不斷變化。

Okay. And the last question I have is, after cleaning up some of the credit book here, can you give us an update on like what's remaining in the health care portfolio, what the credit quality looks like? And then, are you seeing any other areas outside of that book that more cautious about or anything you're seeing in maybe the consumer portfolio?

好的。我的最後一個問題是，在清理了部分信用帳簿之後，您能否向我們介紹一下醫療保健投資組合中剩餘的內容以及信用品質如何？那麼，除了這本書之外，您是否還看到其他任何更謹慎的領域，或者您可能在消費者投資組合中看到的任何內容？

Yeah. So I think we dealt with most of the stress that we saw in the long-term health care portfolio with these transactions. I will remind everyone, we moved some of the transactions. Some of the credits are in held for sale, we would expect to execute a transaction to get those fully off the books over the course of the first quarter.

是的。因此，我認為我們透過這些交易處理了長期醫療保健投資組合中看到的大部分壓力。我要提醒大家，我們移動了一些交易。部分信用額度處於待售狀態，我們預計將在第一季執行交易，將其完全從帳面上剔除。

So we don't have any concerns in any particular sectors in the rest of the book and feel like we're entering the year in a pretty stable position. We also tried to provide that normalized charge-off number just to show that absent some of those derisking transactions, we would have been within the normalized range that we were projecting.

因此，我們對其餘部分的任何特定領域都沒有任何擔憂，並且感覺我們正以相當穩定的地位進入新的一年。我們也嘗試提供標準化的沖銷數字，只是為了表明，如果沒有這些降低風險的交易，我們的收入就會處於我們預測的標準化範圍內。

Okay, great. Thank you, guys.

好的，太好了。謝謝你們。

Daniel Tamayo, Raymond James.

丹尼爾塔馬約、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. So I guess my first question, just on the loan growth side. You talked about, I think, a low single digits for the year. You've had strong momentum certainly on the commercial side. Maybe if you could just talk about what you're seeing in terms of momentum in the commercial side, if that's still strong and then really the driver of the net loan growth number is reductions in CRE or other portfolios? Or just how you're thinking about it kind of segmented out a little bit?

謝謝。大家早安。所以我想我的第一個問題只是關於貸款成長方面。我認為，您談到了今年的低個位數。你們在商業方面確實有著強勁的發展勢頭。也許您可以談談您在商業方面的發展勢頭，如果這種勢頭仍然強勁，那麼淨貸款成長數字的真正驅動力是商業房地產或其他投資組合的減少？或者您只是考慮如何將其稍微細分化？

Yeah. So we are looking at decent pipeline strength in our pipelines right now for commercial. So we feel that there's going to be a more constructive environment in 2025 as all of the different changes in administration and all of that settles down a little bit. So we're thinking that, that is going to be a net positive for us. We also will take advantage of opportunities to grow consumer loans when those opportunities present themselves.

是的。因此，我們目前正在研究商業管道中良好的管道強度。因此，我們認為，隨著政府各方面的變化以及所有事情逐漸平息，2025 年將會出現一個更建設性的環境。所以我們認為，這對我們來說將是一件有利的事。當機會出現時，我們也將抓住機會增加消費貸款。

So in general, we're going to try we're going to continue to focus, obviously, on commercial. We also guided for some expense growth this year. We will allow for some additional hiring in the commercial verticals as well just to continue to develop the build-out in commercial that we've talked about.

所以總的來說，我們顯然會嘗試繼續關注商業。我們也預計今年的費用將有所增長。我們還將允許在商業垂直領域進行一些額外的招聘，以繼續發展我們所談到的商業建設。

So again, I think I would generally say, just looking for a more balanced overall approach and when we have the opportunity to generate good returns either in the consumer portfolios or the commercial portfolios next year. we'll take advantage of them, and we expect some of that business to be available for us. So that's reflective of the overall guide of some modest balance sheet for next year.

所以，我再說一遍，我想我通常會說，只是尋求一種更平衡的整體方法，並且我們有機會在明年在消費者投資組合或商業投資組合中產生良好的回報。我們將充分利用它們，並且我們期望其中一些業務能夠為我們所用。所以這反映了明年適度資產負債表的整體指導。

Got it. That makes sense. So you think it's maybe a little bit slower than what it can be on a total loan growth basis next year and then you could potentially end the year a little bit faster and going into '26, moving towards more of a normalized loan growth rate maybe in the mid or a little bit above that percentage growth, percentage rate.

知道了。這很有道理。因此，您認為它可能比明年總貸款成長率稍微慢一些，然後您可能會在今年年底之前稍微快一點，進入26年，朝著更加正常化的貸款增長率邁進，可能處於該百分比增長率的中間或略高於該百分比增長率。

Yeah. I mean, again, there's fluctuations that you have to deal with all along the way, right? Like all these weather events are certainly going to slow down, for example, the car sale market, right? So when we have opportunities to take advantage, we will, but we can't accommodate exactly when the growth will come. It will be there when the market allows it to be.

是的。我的意思是，你必須一直應對各種波動，對嗎？就像所有這些天氣事件肯定會減緩汽車銷售市場一樣，對嗎？因此，當我們有機會時，我們就會去利用機會，但我們無法準確掌握成長何時到來。當市場允許時它就會存在。

We're still focused as we've been on making sure that we get good pricing and good terms on both consumer and commercial loans. And when those are there, we're going to take advantage of them and do them. But we are really working on maintaining the loan yields and improving the overall margin by making sure that we're not just out taking significant levels of growth at rates that aren't going to produce a stable and growing margin.

我們仍然專注於確保消費者貸款和商業貸款獲得良好的價格和條款。當這些存在時，我們就會利用它們並實現它們。但我們確實在努力維持貸款收益率並提高整體利潤率，確保我們不會只是以無法產生穩定成長的利潤率來實現顯著的成長。

Hey, Danny, it's Lou. I would just add the strategy is intact, right? So we're going to have the maturation of the verticals that we've discussed on prior calls and prior meetings as well as we have a renewed focus on the, what we call the core franchise middle market, lower middle market in the four states that we have retail presence.

嘿，丹尼，我是盧。我只想補充一點，該策略是完整的，對嗎？因此，我們將實現在先前的電話會議和會議上討論過的垂直市場的成熟，並重新關注我們所說的核心特許經營中端市場、我們在四個州擁有零售業務的中低端市場。

And so to your point about while it may be a slower start to the year, we're looking to pick up steam in the latter part of the year a little bit as well as, we have a continued focus on deposit gathering in our commercial franchise. And so that will become more evident as we move along through the year as well.

正如您所說，雖然今年年初可能會比較慢，但我們希望在下半年稍微加快速度，同時我們將繼續專注於商業特許經營中的存款收集。因此，隨著時間的推移，這一點將變得更加明顯。

And as Doug pointed out, it's not that we're completely focused on commercial. So notwithstanding, we have these mortgages on the balance sheet that really are low rate and long that we're running off. We'll have some opportunities in the consumer segment. And so we'll look for balanced growth in that area as well.

正如道格所指出的那樣，我們並非完全專注於商業。儘管如此，我們的資產負債表上仍有這些我們正在償還的低利率、長期抵押貸款。我們在消費領域會有一些機會。因此，我們也會尋求該領域的平衡成長。

Terrific. Thanks for all that color. I guess just one last one, maybe on the securities book. I'm just looking at your slide 9 here on that. You've got the direct duration of five and four years. So I'm just curious kind of what's rolling off this year where you might see some benefit in terms of the margin in 2025, obviously, that book remains a little bit of a drag on the NIM overall from a dollars perspective.

了不起。感謝所有這些色彩。我想只剩下最後一個問題了，也許是關於證券帳簿的。我正在看你第 9 張投影片。您的直接持續時間為五年和四年。所以我只是很好奇今年的情況如何，你可能會看到 2025 年利潤方面的一些好處，顯然，從美元的角度來看，這本書仍然對 NIM 整體造成一點拖累。

Yeah. I'll turn it over to Sean, if he have any specifics he wants to highlight on things that are rolling off. I mean, we are reinvesting cash flows into higher-yielding securities. So that will continue to help drag that -- or that return up over time. If there is an opportunity over the course of the year to consider a balance sheet -- investment securities reposition, we will probably take advantage of that.

是的。我將把這個任務交給肖恩，如果他想強調正在發生的事情的具體細節的話。我的意思是，我們正在將現金流再投資於收益更高的證券。因此，這將繼續幫助拖累這一水平——或者隨著時間的推移，這一水平將上升。如果一年內有機會考慮資產負債表－投資證券重新定位，我們可能會利用這個機會。

But again, that's not a core focus of ours, and it would be something that would be opportunistic versus something that would be -- that is in part of our strategies next year. So as we did last time, if we get closer to executing one of those, we have the opportunity, and we'll certainly talk a little bit about it in advance. But I would say, generally speaking, we're looking at maintaining the size and strength of that portfolio. And as we continue to get positive cash flows from it, we'll obviously be reinvesting at higher rates.

但再說一次，這不是我們的核心關注點，而這將是機會主義的事情，而不是——這是我們明年策略的一部分。因此，就像我們上次所做的那樣，如果我們接近執行其中之一，我們就有機會，而且我們肯定會提前談論。但我想說，總體而言，我們正在考慮保持投資組合的規模和實力。而且隨著我們繼續從中獲得正現金流，我們顯然會以更高的利率進行再投資。

Does that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

It does. Yeah. No, thanks for all the color. I appreciate it. I'll step back.

是的。是的。不，謝謝你所有的色彩。我很感激。我就退後一步。

Matthew Breese, Stephens, Inc.

馬修‧布里斯（Matthew Breese），史蒂芬斯公司（Stephens, Inc.）

Hey, good morning. I wanted to touch on commercial real estate just for a second. A lot of your peers in similar situations as you with lower CRE concentrations, many of them have been kind of nibbling back into the space as a lot of your higher CRE concentration peers have kind of pulled back. And I'm curious if you've kind of looked at spreads and yields and if there's been any sort of change in thinking there? And is that a book if the yields present themselves that we might see some growth in '25? Thank you.

嘿，早安。我想稍微談談商業房地產。許多和你處境類似的、但 CRE 濃度較低的同行，他們中的許多人都在逐漸重返這個領域，而許多 CRE 濃度較高的同行則已經退出了。我很好奇，您是否研究過利差和收益率，以及您的想法是否發生了變化？如果殖利率出現成長，那麼這是否意味著我們可能會在 25 年看到一些成長？謝謝。

Yeah. I think -- I mean I said on our senior loan committee, so we see the largest deals that come through the firm. When there are commercial real estate deals that have appropriate hurdles and then have good risk profiles, we're going to take advantage and do those deals. I don't think it is a focus of ours to specifically go out and grow that book materially from where it is. But we also don't have a specific target that suggests that has to -- that we're planning to materially run it off necessarily either.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，我在我們的高級貸款委員會上說過，我們看到了透過公司達成的最大交易。當商業房地產交易具有適當的障礙且具有良好的風險狀況時，我們就會利用優勢進行這些交易。我認為我們的重點並不是專門從現有內容上拓展這本書。但是，我們也沒有一個具體的目標來表明我們必須——也不一定計劃實質地實現它。

So again, I think you would just expect us to continue to good credit discipline in that space and take advantage when there are good opportunities to do commercial real estate deals, we'll do them. But again, we're liking how the balance sheet is shaping up through the natural flows and the business opportunities that we're taking advantage of.

所以，我再說一次，我認為你只是希望我們繼續在該領域保持良好的信用紀律，並利用好進行商業房地產交易的好機會，我們就會去做。但是，我們再次喜歡資產負債表如何透過自然流動和我們正在利用的商業機會而形成。

And generally speaking, we would like to get a little bit more focus on the C&I book and some of the variable rate deals that give us a little bit different dynamics on our net interest income also. But if TK has anything to add, you can jump in.

一般而言，我們希望更專注於 C&I 帳簿和一些浮動利率交易，這些交易也會為我們的淨利息收入帶來一些不同的動態。但如果 TK 有任何補充，您可以加入。

No, it's appropriate comments. We've just been really strategic about those opportunities. We obviously have the balance sheet to lean into that space if we want to, when we find the appropriate opportunities.

不，這是適當的評論。我們對這些機會非常有策略眼光。當我們找到合適的機會時，如果我們願意的話，我們顯然有足夠的資產負債表來進入這個領域。

So from our perspective, is it fair to consider that portion of the loan portfolio flattish for the year. Is that a fair statement?

那麼從我們的角度來看，認為今年這部分貸款組合持平是公平的嗎？這是一個公正的說法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. And then I was hoping you could also just go into expectations around loan and deposit betas expectations for the year? And as you exit 2025, do you think there's an upward bias to the NIM, given the shape of the yield curve? And actually this environment for you with an upward sloping yield curve is certainly improving, if not a more ideal one than we've seen in the last couple of years.

謝謝。然後我希望您也可以了解今年的貸款和存款貝塔預期？而當您退出2025年時，考慮到殖利率曲線的形狀，您是否認為NIM會出現上行趨勢？實際上，殖利率曲線向上傾斜的環境肯定正在改善，甚至比過去幾年我們所看到的更為理想。

Yeah, I would agree that there's definitely opportunity to lean into the current rate environment and the current rate curve, right? So given sort of my earlier comments around how we think about consumer might be a good place to start. We have the opportunity to grow the consumer portfolio in the first half of the year. Those are going to be when the rate profile of those credits are going to be the strongest.

是的，我同意肯定有機會傾向於當前的利率環境和當前的利率曲線，對嗎？因此，考慮到我之前關於我們如何看待消費者的評論可能是一個很好的起點。我們有機會在今年上半年擴大消費者產品組合。此時這些信貸的利率狀況將最為強勁。

Similarly, as we get the opportunity to think about our deposit book over time. We had a relatively good amount of CDs that are priced in that year or less. Those as they mature, we might take a pause in issuing CDs until rates come down a little bit and take advantage of issuing later.

同樣，隨著時間的推移，我們有機會思考我們的存款帳簿。我們擁有數量相對較少的當年定價的 CD。當這些 CD 到期時，我們可能會暫停發行，直到利率稍微下降，然後再利用這些 CD 發行。

And then just naturally, with our deposits being a little bit on the shorter end and our lending tend to be on the little bit of the longer and that uploading yield curve is going to provide additional benefits. And that's why we're guiding to sort of continued margin growth in that $3.30 to $3.40 range.

然後很自然地，我們的存款期限稍微短一些，而我們的貸款期限往往比較長，上傳殖利率曲線將帶來額外的好處。這就是我們預期利潤率將繼續增長在 3.30 美元至 3.40 美元範圍內的原因。

And we don't have a lot of rate cuts in our outlook. We have two, and I don't know that I would necessarily say if the two cuts didn't come, we'd be in that much of a worse position. I mean we're in pretty -- I think we're pretty comfortable with being able to manage through the rate environment in those parameters and even if they didn't come.

我們預計降息幅度不會太大。我們有兩個，如果沒有這兩次削減，我不確定我們的情況是否會變得更糟。我的意思是，我們的情況相當不錯——我認為，即使這些參數沒有出現，我們也能夠相當放心地管理利率環境。

Got it. Okay. And then the last one for me. I appreciate the net charge-off guide. Maybe you could help us out a little bit with the provision and/or where you expect the reserve to settle out given the mix shift in the loan portfolio.

知道了。好的。對我來說這是最後一個了。我很欣賞淨沖銷指南。也許您可以在撥備方面給我們一些幫助，或者考慮到貸款組合的變化，您預計準備金將如何結算。

Yeah. I would -- you should expect to see slight increases in provision, all else being equal. I'm not going to speak to where the credit environment is going to take us because, as you know, the CECL models begin to (inaudible) future expectations on credit losses. But if we're projecting some balance sheet growth in some loans, but you should expect to see a similar amount of increases in the provision for loan losses because we'll have to provide for that growth as we go. So I will just sort of look at it that way.

是的。我會——在其他條件相同的情況下，你應該會看到供應量略有增加。我不會談論信貸環境將帶我們走向何方，因為如你所知，CECL 模式開始（聽不清楚）對信貸損失的未來預期。但如果我們預測某些貸款的資產負債表會成長，那麼你應該會看到貸款損失準備金也會有類似幅度的增加，因為我們必須在過程中為這種成長做好準備。所以我會從這個角度來看這個問題。

That's all I had. Thanks for taking my questions.

這就是我所擁有的一切。感謝您回答我的問題。

Daniel Cardenas, Jannie Montgomery Scott.

丹尼爾卡德納斯、珍妮蒙哥馬利史考特。

Good morning, guys. Just a quick follow-up -- excuse me, on that provision comment. When you say we're looking for a slight increase, I guess, the '24, that's excluding the fourth quarter results.

大家早安。抱歉，只是想快速跟進一下，關於該條款的評論。當您說我們期待略有成長時，我想，24 年不包括第四季度的業績。

Yes. Yeah, that would be -- if we're at 1.04% as a percent of loans at the end of the year, if we have loan growth, if you kind of stay consistent with that level of reserving, you would expect to see general levels of growth, but it wouldn't kind of excluding the impact of those transactions.

是的。是的，如果到年底，我們的貸款佔比為 1.04%，如果我們的貸款增長，如果你保持這一準備金水平，你就會看到總體的增長水平，但這不會排除這些交易的影響。

Perfect. Okay. Got you. And then on capital deployment front, what are your thoughts on buybacks here in 2025? Are you kind of handcuffed until the deal is done? Or would you guys be in the market looking to buy back stock opportunistically.

完美的。好的。明白了。然後在資本配置方面，您對 2025 年的回購有何看法？在交易完成之前，您是否會被束縛住手腳？或者你們會在市場上找機會回購股票。

Yeah. I think we've been pretty consistent with our capital priorities, but we'll go back to them right. Like our number one priority is we're going to -- our earnings support, the dividend that we have out there. And then we look for opportunities to support organic growth. And then we look for opportunities to deploy for strategic M&A.

是的。我認為我們的資本優先事項一直都非常一致，但我們馬上就會回到原來的狀態。就像我們的首要任務是──我們的獲利支持，我們所擁有的股利。然後我們尋找機會支持有機成長。然後我們尋找部署策略併購的機會。

And then last, if we end up not having any of those opportunities that we needed to think about an incremental return to shareholders, we have buybacks kind of in that category. So that has been consistent and will continue to be consistent. So given where our dividend payout ratio is, I wouldn't say buybacks are really contemplated in the near or intermediate future.

最後，如果我們最終沒有任何機會考慮為股東帶來增量回報，我們就會進行類似這樣的回購。所以這一直是一致的，並且將繼續保持一致。因此，考慮到我們的股息支付率，我不會說在近期或中期我們會真正考慮回購。

Perfect. All right, all my other questions you've been asked and answered. Thanks. So I'll step back.

完美的。好的，我所有其他的問題都已經問過並得到答案了。謝謝。所以我會退後一步。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler.

法蘭克希拉爾迪、派柏桑德勒。

Morning, Frank.

早安，弗蘭克。

Hey, good morning, Doug. This is [Bader] just filling in for Frank. I had a question about the deposit base. Are you guys curious as you guys experiencing any pressure or pushback on deposit costs as rates continue to drop, maybe what you're seeing in the different markets with regard to any pressure or any competition? Any color on that would be helpful. Thank you.

嘿，早上好，道格。這是 [Bader]，代替 Frank 工作。我對存款基礎有疑問。你們是否好奇，隨著利率持續下降，你們是否面臨存款成本的壓力或阻力，也許你們在不同的市場中看到了哪些壓力或競爭？任何顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah. I mean I think we're still priced competitively everywhere that we are, right? We tend to operate in less competitively intense markets generally. And we have not had significant reaction or pushback at the rates that we've had in the market. And in many markets, we have very good, very strong kind of top quartile rates for acquisition products and other things. So I would not say we're experiencing that phenomenon.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們在任何地方的價格仍然具有競爭力，對嗎？我們通常傾向於在競爭較不激烈的市場中開展業務。而且，我們在市場上的利率並未受到重大的反應或阻力。在許多市場中，我們的收購產品和其他產品都擁有非常好、非常強勁的最高四分位數率。所以我不會說我們正在經歷這種現象。

Understood. I had a previous question that was answered. So I'll return back to the queue. Thank you.

明白了。我之前有一個問題，已經得到解答了。因此我將回到隊列。謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I will now turn the call back over to Doug Schosser for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給道格‧肖瑟 (Doug Schosser)，請他作最後發言。

Great. Well, thanks, everybody. Again, we appreciate your interest in Northwest and taking time with us on the call, and we will come back to you next quarter. Thank you.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝大家。再次感謝您對西北航空的關注並抽出時間與我們通話，我們將在下個季度再與您聯繫。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。