如新 (NUS) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth-quarter 2014 Nu Skin Enterprises earnings conference call. My name is Tony and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Scott Pond, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加如新企業 2014 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫東尼，今天我將擔任您的接線生。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議將會被錄音以供重播。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Scott Pond 先生。請繼續。

Thanks, Tony, and thank you for joining us today. With me in the room today are treatment Truman Hunt, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ritch Wood, Chief Financial Officer; Dan Chard, President of Global Sales and Operations; and Joe Chang, Chief Scientific Officer.

謝謝，托尼，感謝您今天加入我們。今天和我一起在場的還有治療總裁兼首席執行官杜魯門·亨特 (Truman Hunt)； Ritch Wood，財務長；全球銷售和營運總裁 Dan Chard；以及首席科學官 Joe Chang。

Just a reminder, during the call comments will be made that include forward-looking statements. These statements involve risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from those discussed or anticipated. Please refer to today's earnings release and our SEC filings for a complete discussion of these risks.

需要提醒的是，通話期間將會刊登包含前瞻性陳述的評論。這些聲明涉及風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與討論或預期的結果有重大差異。請參閱今天的收益報告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以全面了解這些風險。

Also during the call, certain financial numbers may be discussed that differ from comparable numbers obtained in our financial statements. We believe these non-GAAP financial numbers assist management and investors in evaluating and comparing period-to-period results in a more meaningful and consistent manner. The reconciliations for any non-GAAP financial numbers are provided on our investor relations website at IR. NuSkin.com.

此外，在通話過程中，我們討論的某些財務數字可能會與我們的財務報表中獲得的可比較數字有所不同。我們相信這些非公認會計準則財務數據可以幫助管理階層和投資者以更有意義和一致的方式評估和比較期間結果。任何非 GAAP 財務資料的對帳表均在我們的投資者關係網站 IR 上提供。NuSkin.com。

And I will now turn it over to Truman.

現在我將把發言權交給杜魯門。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on the call today. As you saw in our release this morning, fourth-quarter revenue came in at about $610 million, which is at the top end of our guidance. And earnings per share for the quarter were $0.77, also at the top end of our guidance. I want to note that EPS was negatively impacted dollars and $0.06 by foreign currency translation, which was a below-the-line charge that was not baked into our guidance and also by another $0.08 by expenses recorded in conjunction with our recently completed credit facility, which charge was baked into our guidance.

謝謝，斯科特，大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。正如您在我們今天上午的發布中看到的，第四季度的收入約為 6.1 億美元，這是我們預期的最高水準。本季每股收益為 0.77 美元，也達到了我們預期的最高水準。我想指出的是，每股收益受到了美元和 0.06 美元的負面影響，外幣折算這是一項低於標準的費用，沒有計入我們的指導中，另外還受到了與我們最近完成的信貸安排一起記錄的費用 0.08 美元的負面影響，這筆費用已計入我們的指導中。

While 2014 started out with some challenges, we were pleased to conclude the year with stabilization in our global business. We delivered the results we expected in the fourth quarter, and we believe that the steps we have taken to steady the business are having a good effect. We are seeing better sequential trends and increasing momentum, moving into the new year, and now we intend to capitalize on this momentum with initiatives planned to restore growth, particularly in the back half of 2015.

儘管 2014 年伊始我們面臨一些挑戰，但我們很高興看到我們的全球業務在年末趨於穩定。我們在第四季度取得了預期的業績，我們相信，我們為穩定業務所採取的措施正在產生良好的效果。進入新的一年，我們看到了更好的連續趨勢和不斷增長的勢頭，現在我們打算利用這一勢頭，採取計劃中的舉措來恢復增長，特別是在 2015 年下半年。

Looking back at 2014, it is helpful to provide a little bit of context for the challenges that we faced. First, we began 2014 on the heels of our largest product introduction in our history. As you know, the second half of 2013 we launched our ageLOC TR90 weight management system and generated about $550 million in sales. This launch helped the Company post a nearly 50% year-over-year growth rate in 2013. A 50% growth rate is hard to laugh even in the best of circumstances so these tough comps of 2013 to 2014 made for a challenging 2014, particularly since we didn't have any significant new product introductions during the course of the year.

回顧 2014 年，了解我們所面臨的挑戰是有幫助的。首先，2014 年開始，我們便推出了公司史上規模最大的產品。如你所知，2013 年下半年我們推出了 ageLOC TR90 體重管理系統，創造了約 5.5 億美元的銷售額。該產品的推出幫助公司在 2013 年實現了近 50% 的年成長率。即使在最好的情況下，50% 的成長率也是難以實現的，因此 2013 年至 2014 年的這些艱難比較使得 2014 年充滿挑戰，特別是因為我們在這一年中沒有推出任何重要的新產品。

Second, our results were negatively impacted by a strong US dollar. For the year, we lost over $100 million of revenue in foreign currency exchange when compared to the prior year, with $47 million of that in the fourth quarter alone. This is something we obviously don't control, but it is always painful when we are impacted so significantly in just a short period of time.

其次，我們的業績受到美元走強的負面影響。與前一年相比，今年我們在外匯兌換方面的收入損失超過 1 億美元，其中僅第四季度就損失了 4,700 萬美元。這顯然是我們無法控制的事情，但在短時間內受到如此嚴重的影響總是令人痛苦的。

And finally, and perhaps most significantly, the proactive steps we took in mainland China in response to a regulatory review of our business there interrupted our momentum. And it has taken us a few quarters to regain our footing. But we saw nice uptick in active accounts in China in the fourth quarter, which is reflective of a healthy response to product promotions. And we also saw a slight uptick in sales leaders sequentially as well.

最後，或許也是最重要的一點，我們為應對中國大陸對我們業務的監管審查而採取的主動措施打斷了我們的發展勢頭。我們花了幾個季度的時間才重新站穩腳步。但我們看到第四季度中國活躍帳戶數量大幅上升，這反映出產品促銷活動獲得了良好的迴響。我們也看到銷售領先者的數量也較上季略有上升。

Notably, we have also enjoyed good retention of our top sales leaders over the past year. We also received, late in the year, sales some new sales licenses, which is a good sign from a regulatory perspective.

值得注意的是，過去一年來，我們的頂級銷售主管的保留率也很高。今年年底，我們也獲得了一些新的銷售許可證，從監管角度來看，這是一個好兆頭。

We remain focused on healthy, long-term growth in China and believe that there is great potential for direct selling in this market. All in all, we think that China is poised to return to growth in 2015.

我們始終關注中國市場的長期健康成長，並相信中國市場的直銷潛力巨大。總而言之，我們認為中國將在2015年恢復成長。

We also continued to make progress in other regions. During the fourth quarter, the Americas held a regional convention and had a solid quarter as we introduced the new Facial Spa. This product had been off the market for a period of time, as you know, and was very well received. And, in fact, was the market's number-one selling product for the quarter. Latin America continues to perform very well on a local currency basis, and it continues to become a larger and more meaningful part of our overall revenue mix.

我們也在其他地區繼續取得進展。在第四季度，美洲地區舉行了一次區域會議，由於我們推出了新的臉部水療中心，本季業績表現穩健。如您所知，該產品已經退出市場一段時間了，並且受到了熱烈歡迎。事實上，它是本季市場上銷售第一的產品。以當地貨幣計算，拉丁美洲繼續表現良好，並繼續成為我們整體收入結構中更大、更有意義的組成部分。

In North Asia, Japan has steadied after a fairly soft year, while Korea had a nice uptick in sales leaders, which we believe will bode well for the future. Sales leaders in both Japan and South Korea are really anxious to receive the new ageLOC Me product. Previously, we had felt that we would launch ageLOC Youth, the new Pharmanex product in these markets first. But given the demand that we are seeing from sales leaders there, and they are just very anxious to get their hands on this product, we are likely to reverse the launch order now to give these markets, which already tend to be a little bit skin care-centric, the new ageLOC Me skin care system in 2015.

在北亞，日本在經歷了相當疲軟的一年之後已經趨於穩定，而韓國的銷售領先者則出現了良好的增長，我們相信這對未來來說是一個好兆頭。日本和韓國的銷售主管都非常渴望收到新的 ageLOC Me 產品。在此之前，我們曾考慮先在這些市場推出 Pharmanex 的新產品 ageLOC Youth。但考慮到我們看到的來自這些地區銷售領導者的需求，他們非常渴望得到這款產品，我們很可能現在改變推出順序，在 2015 年向這些已經有點以皮膚護理為中心的市場推出新的 ageLOC Me 皮膚護理系統。

So as we look to 2015, we are focused on several growth drivers, particularly the rollout of important new products this year. For those of you who came to our Investor Day meeting in December, you are able to get a sneak peak of the ageLOC Me skin care system. This is an innovative, anti-aging skin care system that enables consumers to personalize the skin care regimen based on their individual preferences and skin care needs. This product is already generating great anticipation among our salesforce and as well as among consumer test groups. So we will launch ageLOC Me to our sales leaders later on this year with follow-on introductions to larger audiences early next year.

因此，展望2015年，我們將重點放在幾個成長動力，特別是今年推出的重要新產品。對於那些參加我們 12 月投資者日會議的人來說，您可以搶先體驗 ageLOC Me 皮膚護理系統。這是一種創新的抗衰老護膚系統，使消費者能夠根據個人喜好和護膚需求來個性化護膚方案。該產品已經引起了我們的銷售人員以及消費者測試小組的極大期待。因此，我們將在今年稍後向銷售主管推出 ageLOC Me，並在明年年初向更廣泛的受眾推出。

On the nutrition side, we plan to introduce the ageLOC Youth product, our most advanced anti-aging supplement that we have ever developed. We have spoken about this product for quite some time and believe that it will be a category changer for us. This product will be rolled out starting in Q3 of this year. These two products play to our unique balance in our core business categories of skin care and nutrition, a balance that differentiates Nu Skin from other competitors, enabling us to provide consumers with a comprehensive product solution to fight aging.

在營養方面，我們計劃推出 ageLOC Youth 產品，這是我們迄今為止開發的最先進的抗衰老補充劑。我們已經談論該產品很長時間了，並且相信它將會改變我們的產品類別。該產品將於今年第三季開始推出。這兩款產品發揮了我們在護膚和營養核心業務類別中獨特的平衡，這種平衡使如新有別於其他競爭對手，使我們能夠為消費者提供全面的抗衰老產品解決方案。

This year, we also plan to roll out a limited number of new essential oil products in both greater China and the Americas, starting in the second quarter. These products fill an area of high growth among consumers in these key markets. And in China, in particular, the essential oil offering will be paired with our top-selling ageLOC Galvanic Spa System to make these products even more compelling.

今年，我們也計劃從第二季開始在大中華區和美洲推出有限數量的新精油產品。這些產品填補了這些關鍵市場消費者的高成長領域。特別是在中國，精油產品將與我們最暢銷的 ageLOC Galvanic Spa 系統搭配使用，以使這些產品更具吸引力。

Now, we also continue to make good progress with our balance sheet, which Ritch will discuss in more detail. We are seeing nice reductions in inventory, and are back to generating strong free cash flow. We believe we will continue to see the balance sheet strengthen further as we progress through the year.

現在，我們的資產負債表也繼續取得良好進展，Ritch 將對此進行更詳細的討論。我們看到庫存大幅減少，並重新產生強勁的自由現金流。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，資產負債表將繼續進一步增強。

Overall, we are pleased with the direction we are heading and with what we are hearing from our teams on the ground and in various markets. The first quarter presents our final difficult year-over-year comp, then in the second quarter we expect to be about even, and moving into the back half we expect to see strong revenue growth coinciding with our product launches. So essentially, we are one quarter away from returning the business to growth.

總體而言，我們對我們的前進方向以及我們從當地和各個市場團隊聽到的信息感到滿意。第一季是我們最後一個艱難的同比季度，然後我們預計第二季度將基本持平，進入下半年，我們預計隨著我們產品的推出，收入將強勁增長。因此從本質上講，我們距離業務恢復成長還有一個季度的時間。

Overall, we are happy to be looking at 2014 in the rearview mirror, but the scrubbing we have gone through the past year puts us in a good position to shine going forward. The business is on solid footing and we continue to prepare for what we believe will be a return to growth in 2015.

總體而言，我們很高興回顧 2014 年，但過去一年所經歷的磨練使我們在未來的道路上更加輝煌。業務基礎穩固，我們將繼續為 2015 年恢復成長做好準備。

So with that, I will turn the time over to Ritch.

因此，我將把時間交給 Ritch。

Thank you, Truman, and good morning, everyone. We are really happy with the way the fourth quarter turned out, as Truman mentioned, at the top end of our guidance for both revenue and earnings per share. And that includes the fact that we had a $0.06 foreign-currency expense that was not part of our guidance as we translated our US -- as our balance sheet items back in the US dollars. So we are now looking forward to moving on to 2015.

謝謝杜魯門，大家早安。正如杜魯門所提到的，我們對第四季的業績感到非常滿意，收入和每股盈餘都達到了我們預期的最高水準。其中包括我們有 0.06 美元的外幣支出，這筆支出不在我們的指導範圍內，因為我們將資產負債表項目換算成美元。我們現在期待著邁入 2015 年。

Just highlighting a few things on the income statement, when we compare it to the prior year, note that each line item on our income statement is significantly impacted by our TR90 product launch in 2013. So it makes the comparison look not very accurate.

只要強調損益表上的幾件事，當我們將其與上一年進行比較時，請注意，我們損益表上的每個項目都受到 2013 年 TR90 產品發布的顯著影響。因此比較看起來不太準確。

Our operating margin for the fourth quarter was 15% compared to 17.9% in the same prior-year period. Gross margin was 82.5% versus 84.4% in 2013. Selling expenses for the quarter were 42.1% of sales compared against 48.2% in the fourth quarter of the prior year. And G&A expenses for the quarter as a percent of revenue were 25.4% compared to 18.3% in the prior year.

我們第四季的營業利潤率為 15%，而去年同期為 17.9%。毛利率為 82.5%，2013 年為 84.4%。本季銷售費用佔銷售額的 42.1%，去年同期為 48.2%。本季的一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比為 25.4%，而去年同期為 18.3%。

We incurred a loss of $16.1 million in the other income expense line compared to a gain of $3.4 million in the prior year. And this loss relates to primarily the prepayment fee associated with the refinancing of our debt and also the foreign-currency expense that I just mentioned earlier.

我們在其他收入支出項目上損失了 1,610 萬美元，而去年同期則獲利 340 萬美元。這項損失主要與我們的債務再融資相關的預付費用以及我剛才提到的外幣費用有關。

Our income tax rate for the fourth quarter was 38.1% compared to 34.8% in the prior year. And note that our 2014 tax rate was higher due to the nondeductible Venezuela currency expense that we took earlier in the year.

我們第四季的所得稅率為 38.1%，而去年同期為 34.8%。請注意，由於我們今年稍早承擔了不可扣除的委內瑞拉貨幣費用，因此 2014 年的稅率較高。

During the quarter, we paid $20.4 million of dividends, purchased $20.7 million of our stock. That leaves our authorization at $348.8 million as of December 31.

本季度，我們支付了 2,040 萬美元的股息，購買了價值 2,070 萬美元的股票。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的授權金額為 3.488 億美元。

Cash provided by operations for the quarter was right about $90 million. And our inventory balance decreased during the quarter by $31 million to about $338 million, which is roughly where we began the year of 2014 in terms of inventory balance. And we anticipate inventory reductions of $15 million to $25 million per quarter throughout 2015.

本季經營活動提供的現金約為 9,000 萬美元。本季我們的庫存餘額減少了 3,100 萬美元，降至約 3.38 億美元，大致相當於 2014 年初的庫存餘額。我們預計 2015 年全年每季庫存減少 1,500 萬至 2,500 萬美元。

For the first time, we are now providing guidance for the first quarter of 2015. We are forecasting a continued strong dollar with the exchange rate in a similar range as to where we see them today and actually where we guided them in December as well, which equates to a negative revenue impact of approximately $50 million in the first quarter.

我們現在首次提供 2015 年第一季的業績指引。我們預測美元將繼續走強，匯率將處於與我們今天看到的以及 12 月預測的匯率類似的範圍內，這相當於第一季約 5000 萬美元的負面收入影響。

As you are aware, we see generally a 5% to 10% seasonal decline in revenue from the fourth quarter two the first quarter as a result of fourth quarter generally being our strongest quarter of the year followed by a first quarter that includes Chinese New Year and a shorter month in February. So our guidance for the first quarter revenue is $530 million to $550 million. While we anticipate operating margin of approximately 15% for the year -- again, that is consistent with our prior guidance -- the first quarter will be lower as we gear up for product launches later in the year. So anticipate operating margin in the first quarter of approximately 13%. And that puts our earnings per share in the $0.70 to $0.74 range for the first quarter.

如您所知，由於第四季度通常是我們一年中業績最強勁的季度，而第一季度包括農曆新年和較短的二月份，因此從第四季度到第一季度，我們的收入通常會出現 5% 到 10% 的季節性下降。因此，我們對第一季營收的預期是 5.3 億美元至 5.5 億美元。雖然我們預計今年的營業利潤率約為 15%（這與我們先前的預期一致），但由於我們正準備在今年稍後推出產品，因此第一季的營業利潤率將會較低。因此預計第一季的營業利潤率約為 13%。這樣一來，我們第一季的每股收益將達到 0.70 美元至 0.74 美元之間。

And as Truman mentioned, Q1 really represents a last quarter of tough comparison with the prior year. So for the remainder of the year, we are holding our guidance consistent with that which we provided at our Investor Day, which is revenue of $2.5 billion to $2.56 billion, continuing to assume a negative 6% currency impact, and earnings per share of $3.80 to $4.

正如杜魯門所提到的，第一季確實代表著與去年同期相比最艱難的最後一個季度。因此，對於今年剩餘時間，我們將維持與投資者日提供的指導一致的目標，即營收為 25 億美元至 25.6 億美元，繼續假設 6% 的負貨幣影響，每股收益為 3.80 美元至 4 美元。

And then, specifically, we see revenue strengthening in Q2 and anticipate that sales may even be slightly positive on a constant current currency basis in the second quarter, and then again with the product launches in the back half of the year we anticipate reporting strong growth. So we really are one quarter away from a growth story.

然後，具體來說，我們看到第二季度的收入有所增強，並預計第二季度的銷售額甚至可能以固定匯率計算略有正增長，而隨著下半年產品的推出，我們預計將報告強勁增長。因此，我們距離實現成長確實只剩下一個季度了。

And so with that, we will open up the call for questions.

因此，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Tim Ramey, Pivotal Research Group.

（操作員指示）Tim Ramey，Pivotal Research Group。

Congratulations on a nice quarter. And it is great to hear you speaking confidently about 2015 outlook. However, Ritch, nothing says confidence like share repurchase, at least to me. And while you did some, it might not have been as much as we would have thought at this point last quarter when you were discussing the 3Q having drawn down a lot of your revolver. Any thoughts on pace of share repurchase?

恭喜本季取得良好業績。很高興聽到您自信地談論 2015 年的展望。然而，Ritch，沒有什麼比股票回購更能體現信心了，至少對我來說是這樣。雖然您確實做了一些，但可能沒有我們上個季度這個時候想像的那麼多，當時您在討論第三季度已經用掉了很多循環信貸額度。對於股票回購的速度有什麼看法？

Tim, Truman. Let me just comment on that and then I want Ritch to comment on that as well. But obviously, as you know, share repurchases are subject to myriad factors. And I think it is safe to say that, if you look at our track record over the course of the last 10 years, this management team has been in favor of using our balance sheet to benefit shareholders. I think we are now 14 years of straight upticks in our dividend policy. And when we have the opportunity to repurchase shares, we do. Now that our cash flow is really back to normal and consistent with what our track record has been, I am confident that our Board will be supportive of being active in creating value with share repurchases. Ritch, do you want to comment on that?

提姆，杜魯門。讓我對此發表評論，然後我也希望 Ritch 對此發表評論。但顯然，如你所知，股票回購受到無數因素的影響。我認為可以肯定地說，如果你看看我們過去 10 年的業績記錄，你會發現我們的管理團隊一直贊成利用我們的資產負債表來造福股東。我認為我們的股利政策已經連續14年上漲。當我們有機會回購股票時，我們就會這麼做。現在我們的現金流量確實恢復正常並且與我們的業績記錄一致，我相信我們的董事會將支持積極透過股票回購創造價值。Ritch，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. Just always sensitive to talk about all the factors that go into stock repurchase, but know that we are committed to that; that we have available cash, and we like the use of cash per share repurchases. So we have bought 1% of our shares back in the fourth quarter and we will continue to use our cash to buy back shares going forward.

是的。總是敏感地談論股票回購的所有因素，但要知道我們致力於此；我們擁有可用現金，並且我們喜歡使用每股現金回購。因此，我們在第四季度回購了 1% 的股票，並且我們將繼續使用現金回購股票。

That's great. Thank you. And, just one more follow-up on -- Ritch, it looks like, if I am -- the way I am kind of modeling the 1Q, we are sort of getting negative operating leverage at the G&A line. Is that a fair statement?

那太棒了。謝謝。另外，再問一個問題——Ritch，看起來，如果我按照我對第一季的建模方式，我們在 G&A 線上會得到負的經營槓桿。這是一個公平的說法嗎？

You are exactly right, Tim. We anticipate a really good year and we are spending to get out of the blocks and get the year going. We have a number of kick-off events in this first quarter, expos that will be held here in February. So, we haven't dialed that spending back. The G&A spending will be fairly consistent quarter to quarter on a dollar basis throughout the year, with a little bit higher fourth quarter because we have our global convention then. But you're right. There is a little bit negative impact in the first quarter, but then, for the year, we still anticipate a 15% operating margin that will be complemented with strong margins in Q3 and Q4.

你說得完全正確，提姆。我們期待今年會是非常好的一個年份，並且我們正在投入資金以擺脫困境，讓新的一年順利進行。我們在第一季有一系列的啟動活動，博覽會將於二月在這裡舉行。所以，我們還沒有削減這筆支出。全年的一般及行政開支在美元基礎上每季將保持相當穩定，但第四季會略高一些，因為我們屆時將舉行全球大會。但你是對的。第一季確實有一點負面影響，但是對於全年而言，我們仍然預計營業利潤率將達到 15%，並且第三季和第四季的利潤率也將保持強勁。

When we can hope for higher bonus accruals in the fourth quarter.

我們可以預期第四季度的獎金總額會更高。

That is right.

沒錯。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

Bill Schmitz, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的比爾‧施密茨。

Sequentially, it looks like active distributors in greater China were up 65% or something. I thought you would be a little more excited about that, and I am just wondering how long do you think it takes to convert them to executives. And then kind of what the backlog is in terms of applications to become executives. And then is there any reason to believe that the historical trends, where there is two- or three-quarter lag between a big uptick in active and then a big uptick in executives, if that still holds? And then I have a follow-up.

相比之下，大中華區的活躍經銷商數量似乎增加了 65% 左右。我以為你會對此感到更興奮一些，我只是想知道你認為將他們轉變為高階主管需要多長時間。然後看看高階主管職位申請積壓的情況。那麼，是否有理由相信歷史趨勢，即活躍人數大幅上升和高階主管人數大幅上升之間存在兩到三個季度的滯後，如果這種情況仍然成立的話？然後我有一個後續問題。

Yes. We are pleased with the uptick, too, mostly because it showed that the market was responsive to product promotions in the quarter and that, in fact, there are a lot of consumers out there who are anxious to buy our products. So we are very encouraged with the uptick in actives.

是的。我們也對這一成長感到高興，主要是因為這表明市場對本季的產品促銷反應積極，事實上，有許多消費者渴望購買我們的產品。因此，我們對活躍度的上升感到非常鼓舞。

As you know, Bill, the closer correlation to revenue is the sales leader count as opposed to the active count, even though actives certainly bodes well for the future. So we are watching carefully the sales leader metrics, the people who are in the pipeline become sales leaders, and we have seen good movement there November to December, December to January.

比爾，正如你所知，與收入更密切相關的是銷售領導者數量，而不是活躍數量，儘管活躍數量肯定預示著未來的良好發展。因此，我們正在密切關注銷售領導者指標，那些處於銷售管道中的人將成為銷售領導者，並且我們看到 11 月到 12 月、12 月到 1 月期間的良好變化。

So it is just a little too early to declare victory on that front, but things are looking good in terms of how the pipeline is filling and the 65% uptick in actives is obviously very encouraging.

因此，現在就宣布勝利還為時過早，但從渠道填充情況來看，情況良好，而活躍人數增加 65% 顯然非常令人鼓舞。

Do you think we should see another sequential increase in both actives and executives in greater China in the first quarter?

您是否認為第一季大中華區活躍員工和高階主管人數應該再次持續成長？

From a Q1 basis, generally the numbers don't jump up. Q2 is a stronger quarter so we will kind of watch and see, but I would say, to Truman's point, we continue to see encouraging signs in both actives and the executive numbers. And then our sort of ammunition hits in Q2 and then forward as we have a leader launch of the ageLOC essential oils in China in June, and then LTO -- not a huge revenue LTO, but LTO of the essential oils in September. So as those initiatives kick in, we should see the numbers continue to build as well.

從第一季來看，整體而言數字不會大幅上升。第二季表現更為強勁，因此我們將拭目以待，但我想說，正如杜魯門所說，我們繼續在活躍員工和高階主管數據中看到令人鼓舞的跡象。然後，我們的彈藥將在第二季度開始發揮作用，隨後，我們將在 6 月在中國率先推出 ageLOC 精油，然後是 LTO——不是巨額收入的 LTO，而是 9 月份精油的 LTO。因此，隨著這些措施的實施，我們應該會看到數字繼續成長。

Great. Thanks, Ritch. And then just --

偉大的。謝謝，Ritch。然後就——

The one dynamic, Bill, that we may be talking about when we talk about Q1 results is that Chinese New Year this year is actually right on top of month end in February, and so it is kind of a weird dynamic that we are doing our best to navigate around, but it is just kind of an idiosyncrasy for this month.

比爾，當我們談論第一季度業績時，我們可能正在談論的一個動態是，今年的農曆新年實際上恰好在二月底之前，因此這是一種奇怪的動態，我們正在盡力應對，但這只是本月的一種特質。

That makes sense. And then, Ritch, just, when you give the inventory reduction targets -- that $15 million to $25 million per quarter -- does that include the inventory build for the essential oils launch and Me and Youth in the back half of the year?

這很有道理。然後，Ritch，當您給出庫存減少目標（每季 1500 萬至 2500 萬美元）時，這是否包括下半年推出精油和 Me and Youth 的庫存建設？

Generally, we don't anticipate as large LTOs as we have done in the past. So we anticipate sort of selling out of those LTOs as we build them. So, first of all, it would be a smaller number, in terms of the inventory build. And then, we should move through that in the quarter, essentially, that we have the LTOs. So while there may be some slight movement quarter to quarter. I think, consistently throughout the year, would anticipate somewhere around a $75 million to $100 million decline in our overall inventory balance. And it will just kind of be split. Some quarters a little stronger than the others, but generally in that $15 million to $25 million range should hold fairly consistent.

總體而言，我們預計 LTO 的規模不會像過去那麼大。因此，我們預計這些 LTO 在建造時就會被銷售一空。因此，首先，就庫存建設而言，這個數字會較小。然後，我們應該在本季度完成這項工作，本質上，我們有 LTO。因此，儘管季度與季度之間可能會出現一些輕微的變動。我認為，全年我們的整體庫存餘額預計會下降 7,500 萬至 1 億美元左右。它將會分裂。有些季度比其他季度略強一些，但總體而言，在 1500 萬美元到 2500 萬美元的範圍內應該保持相當穩定。

Okay. Great. And then, just one last one. Have you taken a stab at what the total currency impact is going to be to EPS in 2015, based on the current spot rates we are using? And then, is there any share repurchase baked into the 2015 guidance?

好的。偉大的。然後，只剩最後一個了。根據我們目前使用的即期匯率，您是否估算過貨幣對 2015 年每股盈餘的整體影響為何？那麼，2015 年指引中是否包含股票回購？

Yes. We haven't built share repurchase in. We don't necessarily build of that in until we actually take the shares in. So I haven't built in any share repurchase into our numbers. In terms of the foreign currency impact, we are estimating about 6%, which would be about $150 million in top-line revenue and that would equate somewhere around $0.25 to $0.30 EPS.

是的。我們還沒有建立股票回購機制。在我們實際吸收股份之前，我們不一定會將其納入其中。因此，我沒有將任何股票回購納入我們的數據中。就外匯影響而言，我們估計約為 6%，即營業收入約為 1.5 億美元，相當於每股收益約 0.25 美元至 0.30 美元。

Great. Thanks so much, guys.

偉大的。非常感謝大家。

Scott Van Winkle, Canaccord Genuity.

Canaccord Genuity 的 Scott Van Winkle。

Following up on the China distributor question, what kind of promotion was done specifically in China? And is there anything different about maybe this group or this current growth in distributors that would be different than maybe go back to 2011 what we saw the number start to really accelerate as well back then?

問：關於中國經銷商的問題，在中國具體做了哪些推廣？那麼，這個群體或目前經銷商的成長情況與 2011 年相比有什麼不同嗎？當時我們看到分銷商的數量也開始真正加速成長？

The product promotions in Q4 were consumer-centric products promotions, typical to what we do from time to time. So, I think the promotions were relatively consistent with our historical format of promotions. But, as I mentioned earlier, Scott, the closer correlation to overall business growth is the sales leader number, and so we are very encouraged at the market responded with consumer-oriented promotions and we are starting to see the sales leader pipeline build. So Ritch, anything to add to that?

第四季的產品促銷是以消費者為中心的產品促銷，這是我們時常做的典型做法。所以，我認為促銷活動與我們的歷史促銷形式相對一致。但是，正如我之前提到的，史考特，與整體業務成長更密切相關的是銷售領導者的數量，因此，我們對市場以面向消費者的促銷方式做出的反應感到非常鼓舞，我們開始看到銷售領導者管道的建立。那麼 Ritch，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think that is fine.

不。我認為這樣就很好了。

All right. Fair enough. And then, in Hong Kong, Hong Kong, looking through some country data that you have -- Hong Kong looked a little weaker in Q4 and it had been running pretty consistently quarter to quarter over the first three and then stepped down in Q4. Is there anything specific in Hong Kong?

好的。很公平。然後，在香港，透過查看一些國家的數據——香港在第四季度看起來有些疲軟，並且在前三個季度中，香港的季度環比增長一直相當穩定，然後在第四季度出現下滑。香港有啥特別的嗎？

Just to mention, in Hong Kong we had an LTO in both Q2 and Q3 that was fairly well received. And nothing in Q4. And likewise, in Taiwan. So those numbers were a bit softer. Our executive numbers were down in those two markets from Q3 to Q4, while the executive number in mainland China actually went from about 17,100 to 18,100.

值得一提的是，在香港，我們在第二季和第三季都推出了 LTO，並且反應相當熱烈。第四季沒有任何進展。台灣也是如此。所以這些數字有點不太準確。從第三季度到第四季度，我們在這兩個市場的高階主管數量有所下降，而中國大陸的高階主管數量實際上從約 17,100 人增加到了 18,100 人。

So yes, a little bit softer in Hong Kong, Taiwan. Not necessarily out of the ordinary, but I think primarily in relation to the LTO and how that rolled out. On a local currency basis in mainland China, we also had an LTO in Q2 and Q3, but the local currency sales in mainland were also slightly ahead in Q4 than Q3. So we were actually able to offset with the improvement in actives the sales number. And it was a good quarter for mainland particularly in the fourth quarter.

是的，香港和台灣的情況稍微溫和一些。這不一定非得是不同尋常的，但我認為主要與 LTO 及其如何實施有關。以中國大陸當地貨幣計算，我們在第二季和第三季也出現了LTO，但第四季大陸當地貨幣銷售額也略高於第三季。因此，我們實際上能夠透過活性成分的增加來抵消銷售數量的成長。對於大陸來說這是一個好季度，尤其是第四季。

I think it is fair to say, too, Scott, that the slowdown in China in 2014 had an echo affect in other markets and Hong Kong and Taiwan, specifically, inasmuch as they are part of the same region and often do things together, like sales events and whatnot. And I think that the China also potentially negatively impacted the United States a bit -- Canada a bit; Southeast Asia a bit as Chinese leaders in those markets were also a little bit -- there momentum was also interrupted by what we faced in China last year.

史考特，我認為也可以公平地說，2014 年中國經濟放緩對其他市場，特別是香港和台灣產生了共鳴，因為它們屬於同一地區，而且經常一起做一些事情，例如促銷活動等等。我認為中國也可能對美國和加拿大產生了一些負面影響；東南亞市場的情況有點類似中國在這些市場的領導者，但他們的勢頭也因去年我們在中國遇到的問題而受到打斷。

Okay. Then, as we look into the first quarter, is there anything -- obviously, we have the guidance. I guess I struggle to kind of get down to that guidance even recognizing the currency scenario. Is there really no LTO activity of any sort or promotion going on in Q1?

好的。那麼，當我們回顧第一季時，有什麼——顯然，我們有指導。我想，即使認識到貨幣情景，我也很難找到那種指導。第一季真的沒有任何形式的 LTO 活動或促銷活動嗎？

Yes. That is correct. No LTOs. Q2, very little LTO. And then Q3 and Q4 will be all the product launches in the back half of this year. So, we should see positive impact from the fact that we are starting to build to that activity later in the year so our sales force will start to be building to those events. But no special promotions scheduled here in the first part of the year.

是的。沒錯。沒有 LTO。Q2，LTO 非常少。然後第三季和第四季將是今年下半年所有產品的發布。因此，我們應該看到，我們將在今年稍後開始進行這項活動，這將產生積極的影響，因此我們的銷售人員將開始為這些活動做好準備。但今年上半年這裡沒有安排特別促銷活動。

And I certainly recognize that, historically, there is a falloff from revenue from Q4 into Q1, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that typically in the fourth quarter you have either global convention, you have certainly some event going on in the US, maybe a product launch. It would seem like Q4 kind of lacked that new product opportunity or new product launch scenario other than the regional event in the US, just like Q1 does. So I guess I look at Q1 and I am just -- I am wondering -- to me, it looks conservative, but I'm wondering maybe you could give us some specifics about markets where there is a little bit more seasonality than others.

我當然認識到，從歷史上看，第四季度到第一季的收入會有所下降，但這在很大程度上是因為第四季度通常會舉辦全球會議，或者在美國舉辦一些活動，也許是產品發布會。看起來，除了美國地區活動之外，第四季似乎缺少新產品機會或新產品發布場景，就像第一季一樣。所以我想我看一下第一季度，我只是 - 我想知道 - 對我來說，它看起來很保守，但我想知道也許您可以給我們一些關於比其他市場更具季節性的市場的具體信息。

Well, if you go back, really, from 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, every year we drop somewhere around $40 million to $50 million from Q4 to Q1. So even though we have sometimes LTOs in Q4, we have also had LTOs in Q1, which have often offset that primarily. So I would say there is nothing really out of the ordinary that we are seeing Q1 this year versus Q4. And the currency impact is a little bit steeper in Q1 than it was in Q4 because currency really moved towards the latter part of the year. And those factors -- but nothing really out of the ordinary that we would generally not see in a given -- in a normal year.

嗯，如果回顧一下，從 2010 年、2011 年、2012 年、2013 年，每年從第四季到第一季度，我們的損失都在 4,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元左右。因此，儘管我們有時在第四季度會有 LTO，但我們在第一季也會有 LTO，這通常會主要抵消這一點。因此我想說，今年第一季與第四季相比並沒有什麼異常。第一季的貨幣影響比第四季略大一些，因為貨幣實際上是在年底才開始變動的。這些因素 — — 但實際上並沒有什麼不尋常之處，在正常年份我們通常不會看到這些因素。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Frank Camma, Sidoti.

法蘭克卡瑪、西多蒂。

I was wondering, on China, are you fully back in the market with a number of company-sponsored meetings?

我想知道，在中國，您是否已經透過一系列公司贊助的會議完全重返市場？

Good question. Well, we are not. We are still limited in the extent to which we can hold meetings and the size of the meetings we hold. But, on a sequential basis, if we look at those numbers and the number of those people who are attending, really since mid-last year, the number has been trending up at a very nice clip. And so, we still have a little bit of a throttle on the number of meetings that we hold, but we are having (technical difficulty).

好問題。嗯，我們不是。我們舉行會議的範圍和規模仍然受到限制。但是，如果我們連續地查看這些數字以及參加人數，就會發現自去年年中以來，這個數字一直呈現非常快的速度上升趨勢。因此，我們召開的會議數量仍然受到一些限制，但我們遇到了（技術困難）。

Good. The other question -- kind of just drill down on China a little bit more -- is, obviously, the overall number grew nicely. Is some of that a return of people that had previously dropped out or is it new people? I just wondered if you could comment about that.

好的。另一個問題——稍微深入研究一下中國——顯然，總體數量增長良好。其中有些是之前退出的人又回來了，還是有新人？我只是想知道您是否可以對此發表評論。

Our sense is that it is primarily new people. There certainly are a return of some customers, but if we were to segment the growth in actives, it would skew in favor of new people.

我們的感覺是，這主要是新人。確實有一些顧客回歸，但如果我們要細分活躍客戶的成長，那麼成長會偏向新客戶。

And the Americas, you had commented that the Facial Spa was doing well. Is that primarily white that growth was pretty strong bear on a sequential basis?

而美洲，您曾評論臉部水療中心做得很好。這主要是因為白色熊的連續成長相當強勁嗎？

Yes. People are very excited to have the spa back and there is also a lot of enthusiasm in the Americas for the upcoming product launches in oils in particular. People are just very excited about the category. And it is a high-growth category in the states, and so there is a lot of enthusiasm for the upcoming launches as well.

是的。人們對水療中心的回歸感到非常興奮，美洲的人們對即將推出的精油產品也充滿熱情。人們對這個類別感到非常興奮。在美國，這是一個高成長類別，因此人們對即將推出的產品也抱有很高的熱情。

And final question just on modeling. The cadence of the selling expense, should we -- since you are doing the launches in the third and fourth quarter, should we -- obviously, the selling expense typically goes up when you do these LTOs. In 2013 they went as high as 49%. I mean, is that something you see as possible in that high 40% range?

最後一個問題是關於建模的。銷售費用的節奏，我們應該——因為你是在第三季度和第四季度進行發布，我們應該——顯然，當你進行這些 LTO 時，銷售費用通常會上升。2013年，這一比例高達49%。我的意思是，您認為在 40% 的高範圍內有可能發生這種情況嗎？

It will depend a little bit, Frank, on the size and the success of those LTOs, but I would model kind of 42.5% to 43% in the first half of the year and kind of 43% to 43.5% in the back half of the year. And that would be consistent based on the size of our revenue that we have guided to. Obviously, lower or higher will impact those numbers, but, yes, somewhere between 50 to 100 basis points higher in the back half of the year than the first half.

弗蘭克，這將在一定程度上取決於這些 LTO 的規模和成功程度，但我認為上半年的成長率約為 42.5% 到 43%，下半年的成長率約為 43% 到 43.5%。這與我們所預期的收入規模是一致的。顯然，較低或較高都會影響這些數字，但是，是的，下半年的利率會比上半年高出 50 到 100 個基點。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Tim Ramey, Pivotal Research Group.

拉米（Tim Ramey），Pivotal 研究小組。

Just another drill down on modeling. Since tax rate was impacted, as you mentioned, by the non-deductibility of Venezuela in 2014, should we see that drop back down into the 35%-ish, 36%-ish range?

這只是對建模的另一個深入研究。正如您所說，由於稅率受到了 2014 年委內瑞拉不予扣除的影響，我們是否應該看到稅率回落至 35% 左右、36% 左右的範圍內？

Yes. That is right. It will be a more normal year this year, probably around 36%, or just slightly higher than that.

是的。沒錯。今年會比較正常，大概在36%左右，或是稍微高一點。

Okay. And then, on the inventory reduction, I think last quarter you mentioned inventories would go down $20 million to $25 million a quarter. Today you said $15 million to $25 million. Anything that is causing that slight change in attitude and, if I calculated inventories dropping by $100 million for the year, we would still be fairly heavy in terms of days sales. I think a little over 200 days sales at the end of the year. Can you comment on that?

好的。然後，關於庫存減少，我認為上個季度您提到庫存每季將減少 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。今天你說的是1500萬美元到2500萬美元。任何導致態度輕微轉變的因素，如果我計算出今年庫存下降了 1 億美元，那麼我們的銷售天數仍然會相當沉重。我認為年底的銷售額會略高於 200 天。您能對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. There is really no change in the feelings we have, $15 million to $25 million; or $20 million to $25 million. I think, in our Investor Day slides we had $15 million to $25 million on our slides there. I think that is consistent with where we feel today.

是的。我們的感覺確實沒有什麼變化，1500 萬美元到 2500 萬美元；或 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元。我認為，在我們的投資者日幻燈片中，我們的幻燈片上有 1500 萬到 2500 萬美元。我認為這與我們今天的感受是一致的。

We will still be a little bit higher the end of the year, primarily because of the Galvanic Spa, which is we are working through it a little bit at a slower pace. Although it will make progress throughout the year and we don't really have an issue with obsolescence because it has not got a shelf life on it. It is our top-selling product and, in fact, the Galvanic Spa, the body and the face spa, were over $100 million in sales in the fourth quarter. So it continues to be our strongest product. It is just that we still have an inflow of those units coming in. So we won't make quite as much headway, but outside of that, most of the other products should be in check by the end of the year and we should be in pretty good shape.

到今年年底，我們的業績仍會略有成長，這主要歸功於 Galvanic Spa，我們正在以較慢的速度努力解決這個問題。儘管它會在全年取得進步，但我們實際上並不存在過時的問題，因為它沒有保質期。這是我們最暢銷的產品，事實上，Galvanic Spa（身體和臉部水療中心）在第四季的銷售額超過 1 億美元。因此它仍然是我們最強大的產品。只是我們仍然有這些單位的流入。因此，我們不會取得太大的進展，但除此之外，大多數其他產品應該會在年底前得到控制，我們應該處於相當好的狀態。

And obviously, that relates to it.

顯然，這與此有關。

(technical difficulty) Sorry.

（技術困難）抱歉。

That relates to it. We were sort of garbled there. That relates to a very nice improvement in working capital as well, I would think.

這與此有關。我們在那裡有點混亂。我認為這也與營運資金的非常好的改善有關。

Yes. You are exactly right. Yes. Generally, we try and be around two turns or a little bit above that, so we will see fairly be fairly close to that by the end of the year, assuming we can continue to make good headway.

是的。你說得完全正確。是的。一般來說，我們會嘗試達到大約兩倍或略高於這一水平，因此，假設我們能夠繼續取得良好進展，我們就會看到到今年年底我們會相當接近這一水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark Astrachan, Stifel.

馬克·阿斯特拉坎，Stifel。

Could you discuss which channels, like online and retail, account for what percentage of sales in China at present or end of last quarter, and whether that breakdown has changed over the last 12 months?

您能否討論一下目前或上個季度末，哪些管道（如線上和​​零售）佔中國銷售額的百分比，以及這種分佈在過去 12 個月中是否發生了變化？

Yes. In the fourth quarter, it was about 70% online and 30% through the stores. And that has moved a lot in favor of online as we have focused more energy and attention there. We have also tried to do -- when we do product promotions, we will have a lot of those only available online. So it encourages people to learn to use the online systems. So yes, I think there is continued good progress to become more and more efficient as we work in China.

是的。第四季度，線上銷售佔比約 70%，線下銷售佔比約為 30%。由於我們把更多的精力和注意力集中在網路上，因此這在很大程度上有利於網路上的發展。我們也嘗試過——當我們進行產品促銷時，我們會有很多產品只能在網路上買到。因此它鼓勵人們學習使用線上系統。所以是的，我認為我們在中國的工作會繼續取得良好進展，變得越來越有效率。

And sort of broadly on that, how does that change impact how you think about sales leaders, both in terms of a leading indicator of growth and how important they are? And, to the extent there are also down lines that extended to China from other markets, how did that impact that?

廣義上講，這種變化如何影響您對銷售領導者的看法，無論是作為成長的領先指標還是他們的重要性？而且，從其他市場延伸到中國的下行線來看，這會產生什麼影響？

I don't think that the shift we are seeing there, Mark, really relates to much of a change in sales leader dynamics, although, I mean, I would say that in China, certainly social media and sales leaders' abilities to communicate with sales groups through online mechanisms and social media is probably more vibrant and dynamic there that it is anywhere else in the world. But in terms of the way that we interact with sales leaders and in terms of the way sales leaders really function themselves, I don't think that the shift in how people are accessing product is really all that impacted by the change in the channel. I mean, Dan Chard, who oversees sales and marketing, is in the room. Dan, would you disagree with that?

馬克，我不認為我們所看到的這種轉變與銷售領導者動態的變化有很大關係，儘管我想說，在中國，社交媒體和銷售領導者透過線上機制和社交媒體與銷售團隊溝通的能力可能比世界任何其他地方都更有活力、更有活力。但就我們與銷售主管互動的方式以及銷售主管實際運作的方式而言，我認為人們獲取產品的方式的轉變實際上並沒有受到通路變化的影響。我的意思是，負責銷售和行銷的 Dan Chard 就在房間裡。丹，你不同意這個觀點嗎？

No. I think that is right, Truman. I think we will continue to see the role of sales leaders play a critical role, and online is a way of integrating our overall model with the sales leaders, not a competitive channel to them.

不。我認為這是對的，杜魯門。我認為我們將繼續看到銷售領導者發揮關鍵作用，而線上是將我們的整體模式與銷售領導者結合的一種方式，而不是他們的競爭管道。

Got it. Okay. And then, from an LTO standpoint, Ritch, what is baked into the numbers in the back half of the year for the new products?

知道了。好的。那麼，從 LTO 的角度來看，Ritch，下半年新產品的數據是怎麼樣的呢？

$150 million.

1.5億美元。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Olivia Tong, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

奧莉薇亞·通 (Olivia Tong)，美銀美林。

Thanks very much. Apologies if I ask anything that was already asked. I came in late. But first, could you talk about what drove the sequential deceleration in Korea?

非常感謝。如果我問了別人已經問過的問題，請見諒。我來晚了。但首先，您能談談導致韓國經濟持續減速的原因嗎？

It was just really the LTO that we had in -- it was almost a limited sales offer, not an LTO. But -- that we had in the third quarter of about $22 million. It was the Tru Face Essence Ultra product and that was the primary difference between Q3 and Q4.

這實際上只是我們所擁有的 LTO——它幾乎是一個限時銷售優惠，而不是 LTO。但是——我們在第三季的支出約為 2200 萬美元。它是 Tru Face Essence Ultra 產品，也是 Q3 和 Q4 之間的主要差異。

Got it. Appreciate that. And then, on China, perhaps if you could just give a little bit more of an update on the progress in terms of, have you been able to lift any of the restrictions on your meeting size or the frequency yet? And if not, do you have any visibility on the timing of when you could potentially lift those? And are they government rules or your own self-imposed rules that you put on your salesforce? Thanks.

知道了。非常感謝。然後，關於中國，您是否可以提供一些最新進展信息，例如，您是否已經能夠取消對會議規模或頻率的限制？如果沒有，您是否知道何時可以解除這些限制？這些是政府規定還是您自己強加給銷售人員的規則？謝謝。

These are rules imposed by each municipality and so our management team works closely in each geographic region of China with local regulators to determine the frequency and the size of the meetings that we hold. And so it is not entirely self-imposed. It is somewhat government imposed, but the dialogue with the regulators is very fluid and very constructive, and so we are just continuing lien continually working with them to increase the frequency of the meetings. And as time goes by, the frequency is increasing, but there are always dynamics at play there. Like, for example, in Beijing in Q1, the government isn't anxious for us or other direct sellers to be having large meetings during the People's Congress that is going on in Beijing so they will scale back a little bit on meeting availability in that particular city.

這些是各​​個城市實施的規則，因此我們的管理團隊與中國各個地區的當地監管機構密切合作，以確定我們召開會議的頻率和規模。所以這並非完全是自我強加的。這在某種程度上是政府強加的，但與監管機構的對話非常流暢且非常有建設性，因此我們將繼續與他們合作，增加會議頻率。隨著時間的推移，頻率不斷增加，但始終存在著動態作用。例如，在第一季的北京，政府並不急於讓我們或其他直銷商在北京舉行的人民代表大會期間舉行大型會議，因此他們會稍微減少在該城市的會議安排。

So it is just unique factors from city to city. And a function of us working cooperatively with the government to demonstrate that we are responsive to their concerns and that we are acting responsibly.

所以這只是各個城市獨有的因素。我們的職責之一是與政府合作，表明我們能夠回應他們的關切，並且採取負責任的行動。

Great. Thanks. Then, just lastly, Chinese New Year is pretty late this year. So does that impact in any way the way that your distributors are going to sequence their sales this quarter?

偉大的。謝謝。最後，今年的農曆新年來得比較晚。那麼，這是否會對您的經銷商本季的銷售順序產生影響？

Yes. And not just that it is late this year, but it is so close to month end in February is probably the bigger issue. And so, our China team is definitely on top of this and has been programming the business to hopefully enjoy a really great strength from a sales perspective before Chinese New Year hits. I mean, as you know, Olivia, the country really kind of shuts down for that week. And so, we have obviously known that that is coming and the team there has programmed the business to be able to navigate that as effectively as possible.

是的。不僅是因為今年的日期較晚，而且距離二月底太近可能是更大的問題。因此，我們的中國團隊絕對處於領先地位，並一直在規劃業務，希望在農曆新年到來之前從銷售角度獲得真正強大的優勢。我的意思是，正如你所知，奧利維亞，那一周整個國家都陷入了停擺狀態。因此，我們顯然已經知道了這一點，並且那裡的團隊已經對業務進行了規劃，以便能夠盡可能有效地應對這種情況。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Bill Schmitz, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的比爾‧施密茨。

Thanks for the follow-up. I just wanted to drill deeper on this essential oils launch. Is this like a stopgap or do you think this is going to be a new platform? Because I know there is a couple of competitors out there, like doTERRA went from like zero sales in 1998 -- or 2008, rather, to $1 billion now. So do you think this could be a pretty compelling platform? And do you think the salesforce can sell it, actually? Because I know a lot of your products are science-based. This is much more sort of natural and homeopathic. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

感謝您的跟進。我只是想更深入地了解這款精油的推出。這是否是一種權宜之計，或者您認為這將是一個新的平台？因為我知道市場上有幾個競爭對手，例如 doTERRA 在 1998 年（或更確切地說是 2008 年）的銷售額從零增長到現在的 10 億美元。那麼您認為這是一個非常引人注目的平台嗎？您認為銷售人員真的能賣出它嗎？因為我知道你們的產品很多都是有科學根據的。這更加自然且順勢療法。任何想法都將不勝感激。

Yes. Good points. The category has grown rapidly over the course of the last couple of years and it is not just the one company phenomenon. A lot of the companies that track market data are still -- don't see essential oils on their radar screen, necessarily, but we do. We think it is a growing category. And for us, given our global geographic footprint, when we see a category like this emerge, we say to ourselves, why not take advantage of our global footprint and take advantage of a growing category before some of the younger companies without the global footprint can really go into foreign markets.

是的。很好的觀點。過去幾年中，該類別發展迅速，而且這不僅僅是一家公司的現象。許多追蹤市場數據的公司仍​​然沒有在他們的雷達螢幕上看到精油，但我們看到了。我們認為這是一個正在成長的類別。對我們來說，考慮到我們的全球地理足跡，當我們看到這樣的類別出現時，我們會對自己說，為什麼不利用我們的全球足跡，在一些沒有全球足跡的年輕公司真正進入國外市場之前，利用這個不斷增長的類別呢？

So consequently, you will see the Americas launch this year and as well as the China launch. And it is a more of a naturalistic, homeopathic category, for sure, than what our traditional approaches to product development. But what we think we can do to the category is apply science that others can't. And so, we actually really feel like we can even apply ageLOC science and validate or demonstrate gene activity, whatever that gene activity may be, with some of these products we are launching.

因此，您將會看到今年在美洲和中國推出的產品。與我們傳統的產品開發方法相比，它肯定更屬於自然主義、順勢療法類別。但我們認為我們可以對這個類別應用別人無法做到的科學。因此，我們確實覺得，我們甚至可以應用 ageLOC 科學，透過我們正在推出的一些產品來驗證或證明基因活動，無論這種基因活動是什麼。

So in China, our oil offering will actually be under the ageLOC brand. And we will be monitoring gene activity associated with the oils that we launch there. And that is one way we are going to differentiate ourselves in this marketplace, is by actually applying science to what historically has been really a homeopathic category.

因此，在中國，我們提供的精油實際上是 ageLOC 品牌的。我們將監測與我們在那裡發射的石油相關的基因活動。這是我們在這個市場上脫穎而出的方法之一，即把科學真正應用到歷史上真正的順勢療法類別中。

Right. Thanks.

正確的。謝謝。

There are no further questions in the queue. Please proceed with any closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。請繼續做結束語。

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us again today. We know on the East Coast you have been pummeled by storm after storm and the good news is, the sun is shining in the West. Good weather is headed in your direction and we really feel, frankly, like the sun is shining on our business, too. We are happy to be in a new year and really believe, as we mentioned during the call, that we are one quarter away from returning to growth. And look forward to working with you in answering any further questions you have. Thanks for joining us.

好吧，謝謝大家今天再次加入我們。我們知道東海岸已經遭受了一場又一場風暴的襲擊，好消息是，西部陽光明媚。好天氣正在向你們走來，坦白說，我們也確實感覺到陽光正照耀著我們的生意。我們很高興迎來了新的一年，我們堅信，正如我們在電話會議中提到的那樣，我們距離恢復成長僅剩一個季度的時間。並期待與您合作解答您的任何其他問題。感謝您的加入。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's presentation. Thank you so much. You may now disconnect. And, everyone, have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。太感謝了。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有個愉快的一天。