如新 (NUS) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the first-quarter 2012 Nu Skin earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today to Mr. Scott Pond, Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Thanks, Lisa. We appreciate everyone joining us today. With us in the room are Truman Hunt, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ritch Wood, Chief Financial Officer; Dan Chard, President of Global Sales and Operations; and Joe Chang, Chief Scientific Officer.

Just a reminder during this call, comments may be made that include forward-looking statements. These statements involve risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from those discussed or anticipated. We encourage you to refer to today's earnings release and our SEC filings for a complete discussion of these risks.

Also during this call, certain financial numbers may be discussed that differ from comparable numbers obtained in our financial statements. We believe these non-GAAP financial numbers assist management and investors in evaluating and comparing period-to-period results in a more meaningful and consistent manner.

I'll turn the time over to Truman.

Thanks, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on our call today. As you saw from our announcement this morning we are off to great start in 2012 posting another record quarter and exceeding guidance for both revenue and earnings. We generated revenue of $462 million for the quarter which is a healthy 17% increase, and we also saw significant earnings per share improvement of 32%, when excluding charges related to last year's (inaudible). So given these solid results and our outlook for the remainder of the year we are increasing our 2012 guidance, which Ritch will touch on in a few minutes.

We are really pleased with our first quarter continued growth as a result of the phenomenal job that our sales leaders with ageLOC product launches. You know that we have always felt that our scientific focus on the genetic sources of aging which are addressed in our ageLOC platform gives us a very compelling product advantage. But these product innovations are really of limited value without a highly capable and motivated group of sales leaders to promote them. As indicated in our release we are seeing very solid growth in active distributors and in our executive distributor [rank], which is the reflection of our sales leaders' efforts.

We are working hard to be better aligned with our sales leaders and that effort is paying off as we increasingly large impact from our product launches. You will remember that we had a very strong fourth quarter of last year when we introduced new ageLOC products at our global convention. Now these products are rolling out regionally, and we are duplicating that strong response with our local and our regional launches. Historically, those local launches were sometimes as far out as 2 to 4 years from the product introduction in the United States, but our new approach has these products rolling out in close proximity to the U.S. launch, and this is enabling us to capture a lot of the energy that previously would have dissipated in time. We remain optimistic about the remainder of the year as we have significant product launches in many of our markets yet to come.

In January, we launched the new AgeLOC Galvanic Body Spa in the U.S. and Europe. And we also introduced our first global ageLOC supplement called R2. This is the product that helps provide sustained energy levels and also promotes cellular cleansing. Japan and Korea were the first markets to get the R2 product, and we will continue the global roll out of ageLOC products in the second quarter when we launch R2 as well as the Body Galvanic Spa in Greater China and R2 in South Asia Pacific.

So the significant launches that we are having in both of our (inaudible) categories it is nice to see double-digit increases in both skin care and nutrition as well.

Let's spend a minute just looking at our regions individually. We are very encouraged by the positive trends that we are seeing in the Americas. New product launches have been extremely well received by our distributors here, and frankly our regional management team is doing a great job to drive distributor productivity. So based on what we have seen here in our home market we believe the Americas will have a very solid year.

Taking a quick look at North Asia as our release indicated Japan was down about 5% for the quarter, which was a slight improvement over the prior quarter and in line with our expectations. We are now starting to lap the impact of last year's natural disasters in Japan, and do expect to see the modest improvement throughout 2012, and by the fourth quarter we look to be flat to slightly up in Japan. And at the same time South Korea posted another solid quarter. In the face of increasingly tough comps that market has really been an all-star market for us for the past several years.

We also continue to grow at a very strong pace in our emerging markets. Mainland China in particular posted gains of more than 57% in Q1, and we project a very strong Q2 as we will begin to take orders for ageLOC R2 and Body Galvanic Spa next week, in advance of a larger Greater China regional distributer convention that will be held in June.

We also continue to see very strong growth in South Asia. The region posted a 54% year-over-year increase in Q1 with growth coming from virtually every market in the region. Now Q1 revenue includes about $15 million of products that were moved into Q1 from the fourth quarter convention orders, but even without this boost to our revenue in Q1 South Asia is doing extremely well as you can see in the executive distributor count growing 23% in the quarter. So we expect South Asia to continue to show us very impressive results.

I also want to point out that we continue to make great strides in terms of overall profitability. Our operating margin is moving toward our 16% target. This was the target we set our sights on about 18 months ago when we announced our intent to push to $4 of earnings per share. We continue to track ahead of our schedule in achieving that target.

With that, let me turn this time over to Ritch.

Thank you, Truman, and thanks to each of you for joining us on the call today. We started this year off with a very strong first quarter and that is prompting us to increase our annual guidance with this morning's earnings release. So let me touch on that first of all.

We are increasing our anticipated local currency revenue for 2012 by 3%, but we are also increasing the expectation for negative currency impact by 1%, so net we are increasing our revenue guidance over the top end of our prior guidance by $35 million for the year or approximately 2%. In addition, we now expect earnings per share to be in the $2.92 to $3.00 per share range. That is an increase of $0.06 over the top end of our previous guidance. The guidance reflects an anticipated benefit from our new product launches in Greater China and Southeast Asia during the second quarter of approximately $55 million to $60 million, and that is up about $20 million to $25 million off where our previous guidance was.

The Company's operating margin for the first quarter was 15.5% representing a 90 basis point improvement over the prior year. The improvements came from efficiencies within both the cost of sales line as well as our general and administrative expense line on the income statement, offset by an increase in our distributor incentives. And these results put us well on track to achieve our stated annual profitability objectives. Our gross margin for the quarter at 83.6%, consistent sequentially and an 80 basis point improvement over the prior year.

Selling expenses for the quarter were 43.8% compared against 42.7% in the prior year. This increase is a result of our sales leaders reaching a higher level of achievement on our core compensation plan as well as a higher number of distributors qualifying for sales incentive trips than in previous years.

The higher achievement in generating accelerated revenue growth -- is generating accelerated revenue growth, and a positive signal for the future expansion of our business. And during the second quarter specifically we anticipate that our selling expenses will remain high due to the scheduled product launch. So we are modeling these expenses to be approximately 44% in the quarter.

Our G&A expenses, which are more fixed in nature, improved 130 basis points over the prior the year, coming in at 24.3% sales. Our tax rate was 36.5% compared to 37.5% in 2011, and we expect this rate to track in the 35.5% to 36.5% range for the balance of 2012.

During the quarter we paid $12.5 million of dividends. We repurchased $5.4 million of our outstanding shares. And for the second quarter of 2012 we are projecting year-over-year revenue to increase approximately 20% in local currency, with an anticipated negative impact from currency fluctuations of approximately 3%. This modeling puts our revenue guidance of $490 million to $500 million with earnings per share in the $0.79 to $0.83 range.

So with that, we will now open the call up for questions.

(Operator Instructions). And your first question comes from the line of Tim Ramey with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed.

Good morning and congratulations and thanks. Ritch, the obvious follow-on to your last statement is if we model 17% revenue growth for the 2Q, we have to model negative 1% revenue growth for the 3Q and 4Q or second half combined to get to your overall guidance, unless I did my math incorrectly. I know you are conservative. We love and respect that about you, but tell me why we would believe that revenues are going to be down in the second half.

Generally, I am looking at fairly solid growth in the third quarter. There is a negative currency impact; I am looking at 4% currency headwind in Q3, so somewhere around 9% revenue growth in local currency in the third quarter with -- obviously, we comparing against the $100 million product launch in the fourth quarter, so I actually have our revenue down a little bit in the fourth quarter. That assumes a 2% headwind for currency in the fourth quarter as well. But it is primarily just comparing against the substantial product launch in the prior year.

No, I know that product launch was orders of magnitude bigger than you any that you had ever done before, but I think you were pretty happy with the methodology you used on that product launch. You will have a convention, you will have a new product launch this fall again as well, I assume. How should we think about that? Are you planning on doing it in some way that might be different, and thus would take revenues out of the fourth quarter?

Tim, it is Truman. You will recall that we do our global convention every other year. And so this is a non global convention year. And the fourth-quarter events will be smaller in nature with most of the major product introductions having occurred in the first and second quarter.

First half. Okay. All right, then. That tidies that up. Thank you.

You bet. Thank you, Tim.

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Schmitz with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Hi guys. Good morning.

Hey, Bill.

Can you just talk briefly about the couple of Board departures recently and any plans you have for replacing those Board members. Just give some context on why they --

We have had -- most of the members of our Board have been really long-term Board members. We announced last fall that Blake Roney would be leaving to serve a voluntary church assignment for 3 years, so that frankly gave us the opportunity to take a look at our Board and decide what the ideal size would be and turn the sides a little bit and kind of match insider participation with an appropriate level of independent Board member participation, and I wouldn't really read much into it. It was all mostly precipitated by Blake's leave of absences here for a few years.

Okay. Got it. That is what I thought. I know you talked a little bit about M&A and some plans for Latin America. Is there any sense for the timing if you guys do end up doing something down there?

Well, Bill, as you know Latin America is a very important market for direct selling generally. It happens to be the region of the world that is growing the fastest for our industry. And we are enjoying decent growth rates in the few countries in which we operate in central and South America right now. But the market has a lot more potential, and we are actively engaged in considering how we can go from our current business model to really making Latin America relevant to us. If we are going to reach our potential by the year 2020, which as you know we've put a $5 million target out there by that point in time, we have to have a substantial contribution from Latin America and we are in the process of figuring that out.

That sounds great. Thanks very much.

Thanks, Bill.

Next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.

Thanks. I wanted to go a little bit deeper into the North Asia results. First, just thoughts about Japan now that the comps get quite a bit easier with the lapping of the disaster impact. Then on Korea you mentioned tough comps, but the comps have been quite difficult for some time, so maybe if you could give a little bit more thoughts about what you are thinking towards the rest of the year, both Q2 and going forward. Then the executive distributor count had -- that is the only area in which -- North Asia is the only region where you saw a decline in executive distributor count, so can you give a little bit more color on what happened there. Thanks much.

For Japan, Olivia, we were modeling Q2 about where Q1 was or a slight trend improvement over Q1 with about a 3% decline for the year, which means you will see an improvement in the second half as the comps do get a little bit easier. And we are also launching the Body Galvanic Spa in Q4 in Japan, which will be a nice launch, and as I indicated in my remarks should get us flat to slightly up by the end of the year.

So you know, it's -- I would say it is slow trend improvement in Japan, but we are seeing signs of hope. The negative number you see in North Asia there in the quarterly release of about a 3% down in the executive account is entirely Japan related. And Korea as you know Korea has just been an absolute all-star market for us for 12 years to 13 years.

And the market is getting to the size where it is difficult to maintain the growth rates we have enjoyed over that period of time. But the market is also going to take breaths -- deep breaths from time to time in between product launches and major opportunity renewal launches and stages. So we have no reason to believe that Korea won't continue to be a solid market, but there will be quarters from time to time where the market is going to take a deep breath.

Got it, thanks. And then secondly on the convention, you have got the Greater China and Southeast Asia conventions in Q2. Is there anything in Q3 or Q4 from a regional basis that we should be aware of?

No, actually the convention for Southeast Asia will actually be in Q3. Although they are having some different events in Q2 where the product launch is happening, so we get some of the product launch revenue will be pushed back into Q2 based on some of the seminars, the big success events they are holding there, and then the convention actually in Q3. So Q3 we don't really have any big events planned for Q3. We do have the U.S. regional event in Q4 along with some other smaller product launches that will happen around the world. But it should be business fairly normal in Q3 and Q4.

Thank you.

You bet.

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Van Winkle with Canaccord. Please proceed.

Hi, thanks. Ritch, I was trying to break down the $55 million to $60 million of sales are going to see in Q2 around the launches in Southeast Asia and China. Should we assume that 80% of that or so is coming from China? And will that all fall in Hong Kong when you actually report sales by market?

Pretty close estimation there. I am guessing at this point in time, because there's two things I guess at. Number one, is how much the gross number will be; and, number two, how much the net number will be once you factor in returns, cannibalization, and actually what shifts in Q2, and if there is any that pushes into Q3.

So what I have got in the modeling is basically $40 million of net product increase, which the majority of that will be shipped in Hong Kong so most of those sells will be reported there. And then another $15 million to $20 million coming out of Southeast Asia.

Again, those are kind of net numbers, so I would assume the gross number is higher than that, and then we will just have to see. We will start to get a really good idea on the Greater China number. They have the first week in May where those preorders are actually placed, and then they will be picked up in June. So we will get a pretty good sense after the first week of May what those numbers are looking like. Later in May we have an event in Southeast Asia, and then one more event in June. So that is kind of how the product rollouts will come throughout the rest of the quarter.

And do you assume that adding -- take greater China for example; do you assume that any of that $40 million net in Q2 is pulled forward out of a Q3 period, or is it just kind of incremental to that quarter?

That is another great question. And I think we are gaining more and more experience by the way we do this with our sales teams, and they do a lot of the analysis on how this is working. We watched that very closely from Q4 to Q1, and we just didn't see a lot of slowdown in the business in Q1. So it didn't seem to be a huge factor that we pulled sales out of Q1 into Q4 when we had that big product launch.

So I don't anticipate that it will pull a lot of the sales out of Q3 necessarily into Q2. The key for us, and we continue to talk about this and manage it, is what happens to our executive growth and our sales force growth. If we get real growth in those numbers those executive continue to qualify and grow the business, so the business should continue to trend really strong.

Great. And the commentary on the higher selling expenses, staying high in Q2 with the big launch, we didn't see -- well, we saw some growth in selling expense in Q4 both sequentially and year-over-year but not to the same magnitude. Is this something that builds upon itself or is it different than what we saw in Q4 when you add $100 million of preorders around a new product?

Yes, I think it will be fairly similar to Q4. We are just running a little bit higher already with the base so then when we add that on top that is why I am estimating it to be a little bit higher.

Great, thank you.

You bet.

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel Nicolaus. Please proceed.

Hey, good afternoon. I guess good morning for you guys.

Hi, Mark.

A question on the distributor growth. So slight deceleration in the quarter versus what was in the fourth quarter; if you could just give some sort of thoughts on that on a go-forward basis, sort of like how many folks came into the business in the fourth quarter that tried and have since left? Is there anything unusual in churn rates? And sort of your thoughts relating to your guidance, how you think about distributor growth going forward including on the executive distributor front?

The dynamic that is in play there, Mark, is we almost always see a pickup in distributor growth in connection with our major conventions. So not surprising there was an acceleration in distributor growth in Q4 and Q3 as more and more distributors try to qualify for different pin levels in connection with our global convention in October of last year. So the fact that there was a deceleration sequentially is really not at all surprising. In fact, an 8% growth in active and 11% growth in executives is really a healthy number for Q1, and a number we are very pleased with.

I would just comment too, to add to that, Mark, that ideally as the product begins to roll out you really see the sponsoring pick up. A lot of times you will see the executive growth strong prior to the product launch and then following that on strong sponsoring, which is exactly what we saw in Q1. We saw really nice uptick in our active number. So the business is trending the way we would have hoped it is doing, and an 11% growth in the executive base is really an indication of what is happening with the core business, and that should point to a very strong core business growth as we go throughout the year as long as we can hold on to that number and continue to drive from there.

Great. And then in terms of inventories out there amongst the distributors, I know you have talked historically about return rates as a good proxy for what is there or how the product has been sold through. What is the update there as we have been now 4-ish months into that launch in some markets?

That is something we obviously ask ourselves with the size of the fourth quarter convention launch, and we have been very pleasantly surprised that return rates really haven't bumped up at all, and have stayed in line with historical measures and even lower than what we would have anticipated, so we are encouraged by that.

We are talking low end of 3% to 5%?

Yes.

Okay. In terms of thinking about gross margins down slightly sequentially, I guess, have been going up a bit going forward -- or have been going up a bit over the last couple of years. Anything sort of changed there?

No, I think we will see it hold right in this range right now. I have softened it up just a little bit in the back half of the year, because we are anticipating a little bit of currency headwind. But should be strong here in the second quarter with the launch of the new product. The new product has margins that are very similar, and so we saw strength in the fourth quarter and we anticipate holding that as we go forward. So 83.5% to 84% would be the range we believe we will hold in for the rest of the year.

Okay. Great. And just lastly, housekeeping, could you give us a bit of color on sales by segment including like R2, Vitality, Transformation, et cetera?

You bet. One of the real great signs we saw in the business was that LifePak continued to be very strong. So LifePak was actually up 8% year-over-year in the first quarter at about $66 million. The Facial Spa continues to sell really strong, holding steady basically, at about $60 million for the quarter; R2 about $47 million, which included a pushover from sales in the fourth quarter that were shipped in the first quarter. So the base would have been about $30 million of R2 in the first quarter; the Transformation at about $35 million; the Body Galvanic Spa at about $14 million; Vitality $12 million. So total ageLOC sales somewhere around $168 million for the quarter.

Thank you.

Yes.

Your next question comes from the line of Rommel Dionisio with Wedbush Securities.

Yes, good morning. I wonder if you could -- now that the new products have been launched just discuss to what extent you might have seen cannibalization from existing products, specifically, especially, the ageLoc Transformation from Body Galvanic? I realize one is for the face and one is for the body, but did you see any sort of deterioration in the quarter as the quarter progress as the distributors were focused on the new product launch?

We are always going to see that to some extent. Wherever we shine the spotlight, that is where distributors and consumers are really going to be focused. So as we shine the spotlight on Body Galvanic and on R2 as they launch there will be almost inevitably some cannibalization, but we are getting better at minimizing the degree of cannibalization. And as Ritch indicated just now with the product to product sales results of the LifePak up 8% year-over-year is really an encouraging sign, because LifePak really isn't the focus of our marketing and promotion attention right now. Do you want to add to that, Ritch?

No, I think that is exactly right. What is always interesting to us is where the base is, so we try and build up as many subscription orders and so forth to get that base up. What generally fluctuates a little bit is the number of new people who are coming in on that product; that seems to be -- as we shine the spotlight from product to product -- the base seems to stay, but the new people coming into the business signing up using that product will fluctuate a little bit.

So we are actually extremely encouraged. To generate a $168 million in the quarter of ageLOC products puts us on track for over $700 million or so this year in ageLOC product sales, a brand that we basically launched about 4 years ago or 3 years ago. We are very encouraged with the way the business is not only trending, but the limited amount of cannibalization we have seen as we have launched each of these products.

Great. Thanks very much.

You bet.

Your next question comes from the line of Anand Vankawala with Avondale Partners. Please proceed.

Hey, guys. Just a couple of questions. First relating to the launches that are expected in Q2, what are the incremental G&A expenses we should build into our models for the second quarter?

Yes, there is probably about $3 million of net costs related to these conventions that we are holding.

And then also just talking about Q4, I know that we are going to have the difficult comp, but what are some things you can possibly do to offset this? I know you have some launches scheduled for fiscal 2013 in the first quarter. Are you still considering plans to pull some of those forward into the fourth quarter? And also any plans to add the ageLOC brand to other products and relaunch those, possibly in the fourth quarter?

Yes, all of those things are in play. As we indicated a little earlier in our remarks you will see the Body Galvanic Spa launch in Korea in Q4. And the U.S. is also going to have a nice launch as we [apply] ageLOC technology to a very popular product here at, our True Face Essence Ultra product, which will launch in the fourth quarter. And so we are applying ageLOC science to other key products, and we are managing product launches. We are not giving up the fourth quarter, and just concluding that we are going to be down. We are going to try to maximize sales in the quarter. It is just that offsetting that $100 million pop from last year is a pretty tall order.

Perfect. Thanks, guys. Congratulations on a solid quarter.

Thank you, Anand.

Your next question comes from the line of Carson Yost with Yost Capital Management. Please proceed.

Yes, Hello. Can you hear me?

We can hear you.

Hi, there. I just had a follow-up with a question on the Board member someone asked earlier. Any questions regarding fall out related to the books published by the Board members' husbands. What have you all done to try to stem the damage if any, and is it anything we should worry about?

That is not our favorite topic around here right now because it is something we'd obviously rather not have to deal with. To us it's -- to be honest, in my opinion, it is pretty much garden variety extortion from my perspective. And our Board member, Sandie Tillotson, is doing her best to deal with her ex-husband and husband and fighting that battle the best way she can. When people show up with their hand out saying pay me or else, it is pretty distasteful.

So the Company neither paid off either of the two husbands because I saw the second one had removed his book from his website a couple days after it showed up?

No, the Company has not participated in any settlements with those people.

Great. Terrific. Thank you so much.

Your next question comes from the line of John Faucher with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Thanks. Hi, everyone. I was wondering if you take a look at the subscription volume, can you sort of update us in terms of where we stand on that, and can you also talk about as you launch more new products does that create a situation where the subscription percentage goes down and then begins to move back up again because of the whole pre launch stuff? Can you just give us an update in terms of where we stand there?

Yes, that is exactly how it works. When the pre launch happens, none of that volume comes in on subscription. So it pushes the rate down just a little bit. It was right around 56% in the first quarter, so holding very solid. And then it is always fun to see the new orders come in on the subscription. We are processing a half a million orders a month now on subscription and continuing to grow that base as we go forward. But you are exactly right; it drops down generally when we have a big pre launch and then picks up as the customers come on to that new product.

Got it. And then a follow-up on the China business, which is obviously doing well, but one of things we struggle with is trying to figure out what is like-for-like growth versus new territory growth sort of geographic expansion. Any sort of updated thoughts in terms of how your like-for-like business is doing in China as opposed to let's say picking up new distributors or picking up new geographies? Thanks.

The growth we are seeing in China, John, really is coming from the centers around Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. And the growth we are seeing really isn't related to -- much at all to the expansion of new cities. This is just core growth in our 3 core areas, and it is, obviously, very encouraging because it is much less related to geographic expansion than it is just core growth in the business.

Got it thank you.

Yes.

(Operator Instructions). Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Bill Schmitz with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Hey, guys. Just a couple of follow-ups if you don't mind.

No problem.

How should we model the margin impact of the currency? I know we kind of talked about it before, but is there any sort of delta? So if it is going to be like 3%, and you said in the third quarter, what kind of profit hit would you have on that?

Yes, so 3% somewhere around $15 million or so would be the headwind, and it is probably around $0.02 EPS. It shouldn't have a huge impact on the overall margin, but there will be a little impact on EPS for the third quarter.

Got you. So it is pretty linear; so if it 3% to the top line it is kind of 3% to the operating line as well?

That is right.

Okay. If ageLOC goes as planned this year, is there a chance it becomes $1 billion brand this year?

Oh yes; it is already $1 billion brand.

Oh, I thought you said $168 million in sales this quarter.

Just for the year itself.

Oh, okay. No, that is great.

I think, Bill, the big thing that pushes that up is what happens here in the second quarter with these product launches. We will get a pretty good idea, even in the next few weeks, of how that is going. There is probably opportunity that we over shoot the numbers we've put out there as we regularly try and do. And, again, I just remind the areas of conservatism, what we try and bake in are emerging markets and product launches because those are a little bit more difficult to project.

The rest of the business I can stick my finger on pretty good. So we try and always stay behind the curve as it relates to what those product launches look like. Obviously, our general managers are much more aggressive at what they believe this will turn out to be than what I have put into these numbers.

Got you. Thanks very much.

And to that point, Bill, let me just highlight one thing and that is our annual sales incentive trip that we do with our top sales leaders happens to be in the second week of May this year, the week following the order taking in connection with the Greater China launch. We are going to want to talk to our sales leaders at this trip about the result of that order-taking process, so there is a high likelihood we will update the industry on orders for the Greater China convention just prior to our annual sales incentive trip.

Got you. Thanks. Sounds great.

Thank you.

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Olivia Tong with Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.

Thanks. Just on the other income line, do you have any sense for where that is trending so far? I realize we are only part way through the quarter, but any sense on that? Thank you.

Yes, Olivia. I am just going to jump back in time to Q3 of 2011. You will notice we took a hit back then of about $6.5 million for FX for currency shifts. Basically we said that a lot of those were non-cash translation losses that we took. We brought much of that cash back in, in the first quarter as the rates had moved into our favor.

Basically on a go-forward basis the thing that will cause that number to shift down to the other income and expense line is the fluctuation during the quarter and where it happens to land at the end of the quarter. So it is a little bit difficult to forecast at this point in time because we kind of have to see where it going to land at the end of the quarter.

But generally speaking I have probably built a little conservatism into what I think is happening with exchange rates primarily because the yen moved to 84 a couple of months ago, you know? So I built a little conservatism in I believe in the latter half of the year with the yen being in the 83 range into the numbers. And today, as you know, it is about 80.5 or so. So that is where I'm trying to forecast out what is going on, but I can't really give too much of an update on the other income line until we get closer to the end of the quarter.

Does that answer your question, Olivia?

I think she might have jumped off.

Okay. Olivia may have jumped off.

Let me just conclude our call here by again thanking you for joining us. I wanted to just highlight that our numbers obviously give us a difficult comp in the second half of this year, but overall with the success we are having from our product launches in the first half, 2012 is going to be another record year.

We are seeing phenomenal distributor enthusiasm around the world, and we are aligning our sales leaders to be able to sustain long-term growth. So looking beyond 2012 the refinements that we have made to our launch processes over the past couple of years really bode well for the future as we expect our 2013 global introduction on an ageLOC-based weight management system to be our largest global launch ever by quite a wide margin. And then that will obviously bode well for 2014 as we roll out the weight management system globally. So this product development and launch process is really enabling us to sustain and propel long-term growth, we feel, for many years to come.

So overall it is a great time for Nu Skin Enterprises, and we are delighted with our results. We are optimistic about the future and couple these things with a growing and talented distributor force and a fully committed corporate team that is focused on achieving our core dollar earnings per share target. We continue to have a very bright future. So thank you all for joining us today, and we hope you have a great day.

Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.