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Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Nucor's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)
早安,歡迎參加紐柯公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)今天的通話正在錄音。(操作說明)
At this time, I would like to introduce Chris Jacobi, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin your call.
在此,我謹向大家介紹投資人關係總監克里斯‧雅各比。您可以開始通話了。
Chris Jacobi - Director of Investor Relations
Chris Jacobi - Director of Investor Relations
Thank you and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to join you this morning as the newest member of the Nucor IR team and welcome you to our third-quarter earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO; along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. Other members of the new core executive team are also here with us today. and may participate during the Q&A portion of the call.
謝謝大家,大家早安。今天早上,我很高興能作為紐柯公司投資者關係團隊的新成員與大家見面,並歡迎大家參加我們的第三季收益回顧和業務更新會議。今天主持我們電話會議的是董事長、總裁兼執行長 Leon Topalian,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Steve Laxton。新核心管理團隊的其他成員今天也來到了現場,他們可能會在電話會議的問答環節參與討論。
Yesterday, we posted our third-quarter earnings release and investor presentation to Nucor's IR website. We encourage you to access these materials as we will cover portions of them during the call.
昨天,我們在紐柯公司的投資者關係網站上發布了第三季財報和投資人簡報。我們鼓勵您查閱這些資料,因為我們將在通話中講解其中的部分內容。
Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our safe harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
今天的討論將包括使用非GAAP財務指標和證券法意義上的前瞻性資訊。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明有所不同,並涉及我們在安全港聲明中概述以及在紐柯公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中披露的風險。本次簡報的附錄包括補充資料和揭露內容,以及非GAAP財務指標的調節表。
With that, let's turn the call over to Leon.
那麼,讓我們把電話交給萊昂吧。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Chris. I want to begin by thanking our 33,000 Nucor teammates for their continued commitment to safety. Our team has been lowering our injury and illness rate every year since 2017, and we are on track to do it again in 2025. This level of performance would be impressive at any point, but to do it through a period of significant growth is an amazing accomplishment. Congratulations to the entire Nucor team and let's make the last 2 months of 2025 the safest in Nucor's history.
謝謝你,克里斯。首先,我要感謝紐柯公司的 33,000 名員工對安全的持續承諾。自 2017 年以來,我們的團隊每年都在降低傷病率,我們預計在 2025 年再次做到這一點。這樣的表現無論在何時都令人印象深刻,但在快速成長時期取得這樣的成績更是一項了不起的成就。恭喜紐柯全體團隊,讓我們共同努力,讓 2025 年的最後兩個月成為紐柯歷史上最安全的時期。
Turning to Nucor's third-quarter financial performance, we generated EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and earned $2.63 of EPS. These results exceeded our third-quarter guidance driven by stronger-than-expected shipments from our steel mills and favorable corporate adjustments. Steve will provide more details during his financial update. We remain committed to prudent capital management on behalf of our shareholders, balancing long-term growth with meaningful shareholder returns while maintaining our industry-leading credit profile.
再來看紐柯公司第三季的財務業績,我們實現了約 13 億美元的 EBITDA,每股收益為 2.63 美元。由於鋼廠出貨量強於預期以及有利的公司調整,這些業績超過了我們第三季的預期。史蒂夫將在財務報告會上提供更多細節。我們始終致力於為股東進行審慎的資本管理,在保持業界領先的信用評級的同時,平衡長期成長與股東的實質回報。
During the third quarter, we reinvested $807 million into the company with the majority of this capital related to growth projects that are nearing completion. We've also returned approximately $230 million to Nucor shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, bringing our year-to-date returns to nearly $1 billion or 72% of net earnings.
第三季度,我們向公司再投資了 8.07 億美元,其中大部分資金用於即將完成的成長項目。我們也透過分紅和股票回購向紐柯股東返還了約 2.3 億美元,使我們今年迄今的回報接近 10 億美元,佔淨收益的 72%。
We also saw our long-term credit ratings upgraded to A3 by Moody's. Following the Moody's upgrade, we are now rated A- or A3 by all 3 rating agencies, making us the only major North American steel producer to hold that distinction. Creating value for our stakeholders requires a relentless focus on execution, and I'm proud of the work our team has done to advance our long-term mission to grow the core, expand beyond, and live our culture.
穆迪也將我們的長期信用評級上調至 A3。穆迪評級上調後,我們現在獲得了三大評級機構的 A- 或 A3 評級,成為北美唯一獲此殊榮的大型鋼鐵生產商。為利害關係人創造價值需要我們堅持不懈地專注於執行,我為我們團隊為推進我們的長期使命——發展核心業務、拓展業務範圍、實踐我們的文化——所做的工作感到自豪。
We are in the final phase of our multiyear capital investment campaign and will complete four major projects by the end of this year. Recent milestones include the commissioning of two bar mill projects and the commencement of pull production in galvanizing operations at our Alabama Towers & Structures facility.
我們正處於多年資本投資計畫的最後階段,並將於今年年底前完成四個主要項目。近期取得的里程碑包括兩個棒材軋機專案的投產,以及阿拉巴馬州塔架和結構工廠鍍鋅作業中拉拔生產的啟動。
Our two new sheet coating facilities at Crawfordsville and Berkeley County remain on track, and the team in Crawfordsville recently processed the first coil through their new galvanizing line. And construction of our new sheet mill in West Virginia is two-thirds complete and remains on schedule to begin ramping up by the end of next year. Even as we invest to grow our capabilities, we remain focused on leveraging our existing asset base to generate attractive returns for our shareholders.
我們在克勞福茲維爾和伯克利縣的兩座新的板材塗層廠仍在按計劃進行,克勞福茲維爾的團隊最近通過他們的新鍍鋅生產線加工了第一捲板材。我們在西維吉尼亞州的新板材廠建設已完成三分之二,並按計畫將於明年年底開始逐步投入生產。即使我們不斷投資以提升自身能力,我們仍然專注於利用現有資產基礎為股東創造可觀的回報。
For example, in steel products, we've taken steps to repurpose two existing steel products facilities to support our faster-growing Nucor data systems businesses. And within the steel mills, we have recently decided to no longer pursue a new rebar micro mill project in the Pacific Northwest region. With the recent investments we've made in the bar group, we can serve the Western US and Canadian markets from our current footprint with superior cost and supply chain advantages. We will continue to monitor market developments to ensure the best use of our shareholder capital.
例如,在鋼鐵產品領域,我們已採取措施改造兩個現有的鋼鐵產品工廠,以支援我們快速成長的紐柯資料系統業務。在鋼鐵廠方面,我們最近決定不再在太平洋西北地區推進新的鋼筋微型軋機計畫。憑藉我們最近對酒吧集團的投資,我們可以利用我們現有的業務佈局,以卓越的成本和供應鏈優勢服務美國西部和加拿大市場。我們將繼續關注市場動態,以確保股東資金得到最佳利用。
As I've said in the past, our growth strategy is not about growing our capacity. It's about providing more capabilities for our shareholders, customers and team. The investments we're making now to grow our core steelmaking capabilities and expand into downstream steel adjacent businesses will better position Nucor to offer comprehensive integrated solutions unmatched by any of our competitors. And by optimizing our full portfolio to operate as one team, we make it easier for our customers to buy, build and succeed. Let me now take a few minutes to highlight a couple of the areas where Nucor is improving its position as the supplier, employer and investment of choice within the steel industry.
正如我之前所說,我們的成長策略並非在於擴大產能。這關乎為我們的股東、客戶和團隊提供更多能力。我們現在進行的投資旨在提升我們的核心煉鋼能力,並拓展到下游鋼鐵相關業務領域,這將使紐柯公司能夠更好地提供競爭對手無法比擬的全面整合解決方案。透過優化我們的全部產品組合,使其像一個團隊一樣運作,我們讓客戶更容易購買、建立和取得成功。現在,我想花幾分鐘時間重點介紹紐柯公司在哪些方面正在提升其作為鋼鐵業首選供應商、雇主和投資對象的地位。
One of these is Nucor's bar mill group. As many of you know, Nucor entered the steelmaking business in 1969 when we began operating our first bar mill in Darlington, South Carolina. Over the following five decades, we have harnessed the inherent advantages of scrap-based steelmaking and Nucor's performance-driven culture to grow our bar mill Group into the nationwide powerhouse that it is. The bar mill team has delivered strong results in 2025, fueled by increased demand in the non-res construction markets and infrastructure markets.
其中之一是紐柯公司的棒材軋鋼機部門。正如你們許多人所知,紐柯公司於 1969 年進入煉鋼行業,當時我們在南卡羅來納州達林頓開始運營我們第一家棒材軋鋼廠。在接下來的五十年裡,我們利用廢鋼煉鋼的固有優勢和紐柯公司以業績為導向的企業文化,將我們的棒材軋鋼集團發展成為如今的全國性鋼鐵巨頭。2025 年,棒材軋機團隊取得了強勁的業績,這得益於非住宅建築市場和基礎設施市場需求的成長。
With our broad geographic coverage and capabilities, Nucor is well positioned to optimize both product mix and volume regionally. In fact, the team has set quarterly rebar shipment records twice so far this year, first in Q1 and then again in Q3. We also began ramping production in the third quarter at our new melt shop in Kingman, Arizona and our new rebar micro mill in Lexington, North Carolina. Both facilities are strategically located in high-growth regions with reliable access to local scrap supply, enhancing our existing footprint in the Western and Southeast markets. We will continue ramping up operations over the coming months, with both projects on track to be EBITDA positive by the first quarter of 2026. While we build our leadership in steelmaking, we are also positioning Nucor as a key supplier to high-growth markets, like data center construction.
憑藉我們廣泛的地域覆蓋和能力,紐柯公司在優化區域產品組合和產量方面處於有利地位。事實上,該團隊今年已經兩度創下季度鋼筋出貨量紀錄,第一次是在第一季度,第二次是在第3季度。第三季度,我們在亞利桑那州金曼的新熔煉廠和北卡羅來納州萊剋星頓的新鋼筋微型軋機也開始逐步提高產量。這兩個工廠都策略性地位於高成長地區,並且能夠可靠地獲得當地的廢料供應,從而增強了我們在西部和東南部市場的現有影響力。我們將在未來幾個月繼續擴大營運規模,這兩個項目都有望在 2026 年第一季實現 EBITDA 為正。在鞏固我們在鋼鐵製造領域的領先地位的同時,我們也正將紐柯公司定位為資料中心建設等高成長市場的關鍵供應商。
The DOGE construction network is forecasting 60 million square feet of data center construction in 2025, a 30% increase over '24. And the state of Virginia alone has seen 54 new data center permit applications in the first 9 months of the year, underscoring the sector's momentum and long-term growth potential. With our comprehensive portfolio of products, Nucor is uniquely equipped to partner with leading developers and hyperscalers who increasingly value speed and certainty of execution. We now supply over 95% of all steel products that go into a data center from the building envelope to the interior infrastructure. For example, we're the only provider capable of supplying steel for both conventional structures and preengineered buildings at scale.
DOGE 建築網路預測,到 2025 年,資料中心建設面積將達到 6,000 萬平方英尺,比 2024 年成長 30%。光是維吉尼亞州今年前 9 個月就收到了 54 份新的資料中心許可證申請,凸顯了該產業的強勁勢頭和長期成長潛力。憑藉我們全面的產品組合,紐柯公司擁有獨特的優勢,能夠與越來越重視速度和執行確定性的領先開發商和超大規模企業建立合作關係。我們現在供應資料中心從建築外圍護結構到內部基礎設施所需的95%以上的鋼材產品。例如,我們是唯一一家能夠大規模供應傳統結構和預製建築用鋼材的供應商。
Inside of data centers, we're accelerating growth in our Nucor data systems businesses, implementing domestic production of server cabinets and increasing capacity for hot aisle containment and data center support structures. This unlocks powerful cross-selling opportunities for our diverse product portfolio, creating better outcomes for customers and driving shareholder value. Turning to trade policy. We've seen meaningful federal action this year supporting the American steel industry. Section 232 measures and ongoing trade enforcement are curbing imports with finished deal imports down nearly 11% year-to-date through August.
在資料中心內部,我們正在加速 Nucor 資料系統業務的成長,實施伺服器機櫃的國內生產,並提高熱通道封閉和資料中心支援結構的產能。這將為我們多元化的產品組合帶來強大的交叉銷售機會,為客戶創造更好的結果,並提升股東價值。接下來談談貿易政策。今年我們看到聯邦政府採取了實際有效的行動來支持美國鋼鐵業。第 232 條款措施和持續的貿易執法正在抑制進口,截至 8 月,今年迄今的成品進口量下降了近 11%。
Since the broader Section 232 tariffs were implemented, we have seen larger month-over-month reductions in imports and expect the trend to continue. While imports have decreased since the comprehensive 50% steel tariffs went into effect, they continue to be a necessary tool to counteract the massive amount of overcapacity that persist in the global steel sector. We believe that tariffs must stay in place with no exceptions or loopholes until there are fundamental changes in the global steel industry. Ongoing trade cases continue to provide another important defense against unfairly traded imports. In September, the ITC Commission rule that American steel producers were materially injured by imports of corrosion-resistant steel from 10 countries.
自從實施更廣泛的 232 條款關稅以來,我們看到進口量逐月下降幅度更大,預計這一趨勢還將持續。雖然自全面徵收 50% 鋼鐵關稅以來,進口量有所下降,但進口仍然是應對全球鋼鐵業持續存在的大量產能過剩的必要手段。我們認為,在全球鋼鐵業發生根本性變化之前,關稅必須繼續有效,沒有任何例外或漏洞。正在進行的貿易案件繼續為打擊不公平貿易進口提供另一項重要的辯護理由。9 月,美國國際貿易委員會裁定,來自 10 個國家的耐腐蝕鋼進口對美國鋼鐵生產商造成了實質損害。
Nucor is pleased with the decision, which clears the way for the Department of Commerce to issue final antidumping and countervailing duty orders in the coming weeks. We are also following the Commerce Department's investigations into rebar imports from 4 countries and expect to see the preliminary determination later this quarter. Overall, we are encouraged by the administration's actions to help level the playing field for the American steel industry. And as North America's largest and most capable steel products company, Nucor is well positioned to create value for our customers and shareholders. With that, let me turn it over to Steve, who will share additional details about our third quarter financial performance.
紐柯公司對這項決定感到滿意,這為商務部在未來幾週內發布最終的反傾銷和反補貼稅令掃清了障礙。我們也正在關注商務部對來自 4 個國家的鋼筋進口的調查,預計將在本季稍後看到初步裁定。總的來說,我們對政府為幫助美國鋼鐵業創造公平競爭環境所採取的行動感到鼓舞。身為北美規模最大、實力最強的鋼鐵產品公司,紐柯公司完全有能力為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。接下來,我將把發言權交給史蒂夫,他將分享我們第三季財務表現的更多細節。
Steve?
史蒂夫?
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Thank you, Leon, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. For the third quarter, Nucor generated net earnings of $607 million or $2.63 per share. Earnings were in line with the second quarter's adjusted earnings per share of $2.60 and above adjusted earnings per share of $1.49 for the third quarter of last year. Year-to-date, Nucor's adjusted net earnings are approximately $1.4 billion or $5.98 a share. Earnings for the third quarter exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range by approximately $0.50.
謝謝你,萊昂,也謝謝各位今天上午參加我們的電話會議。第三季度,紐柯公司實現淨利 6.07 億美元,即每股 2.63 美元。獲利與第二季調整後每股收益 2.60 美元持平,高於去年第三季調整後每股收益 1.49 美元。今年迄今為止,紐柯公司調整後的淨收益約為 14 億美元,即每股 5.98 美元。第三季收益比我們預期範圍的中點高出約 0.50 美元。
The guidance beat was driven by 2 main factors: better-than-expected shipments and lower pre-operating and start-up costs. Our steel mills segment realized higher-than-expected shipments in sheet, bar and structural. In September, our Berkeley division set an all-time production record. And as Leon mentioned earlier, the bar group achieved another quarterly record for rebar shipments. The steel mills group also saw stronger-than-expected shipment levels from several mills coming out of the third quarter planned outages.
業績指引超預期主要得益於兩個因素:出貨量優於預期,以及營運前和啟動成本降低。我們的鋼鐵廠部門在板材、棒材和型材方面的出貨量都高於預期。9月份,我們伯克利分部創下了歷史生產紀錄。正如萊昂之前提到的,鋼筋集團的鋼筋出貨量再次創下季度新高。鋼鐵廠集團也發現,第三季計畫停產後,多家鋼廠的出貨量高於預期。
Additionally, the steel products segment exceeded volume expectations, contributing further to overall outperformance. Several of our newer operations progressed through start-up activities more rapidly than anticipated, resulting in lower-than-expected pre-operating and start-up costs. Pre-operating and start-up costs for the third quarter were $103 million. Favorable corporate and administrative impacts also contributed to the outperformance. These included lower inventory eliminations due primarily to lower-than-expected inventories in our downstream steel products segment as well as lower overall corporate and administrative costs.
此外,鋼鐵產品板塊的銷售也超乎預期,進一步推動了整體業績的優異表現。我們的一些新業務的啟動速度比預期更快,因此營運前和啟動成本低於預期。第三季的營運前和啟動成本為 1.03 億美元。有利的公司及行政因素也促成了業績的優異表現。這包括由於下游鋼鐵產品部門庫存低於預期而導致的庫存消除減少,以及整體公司和管理成本的降低。
Turning to the segment level results for the third quarter. The steel mills segment generated $793 million of pretax earnings, a decrease of 6% from the prior quarter. We saw improved results across our bar and structural steel groups, but lower profitability in sheet and plate more than offset the gains in longs. We continue to see strong demand for long products and more subdued but stable demand for flats. That said, we are gaining market share and are encouraged by the recent operating performance of our steel mills.
接下來來看第三季各業務部門的業績。鋼鐵廠業務部門稅前利潤為 7.93 億美元,較上一季下降 6%。棒材和結構鋼業務的業績均有所改善,但板材業務獲利能力下降,抵消了長材業務的成長。我們持續看到市場對長條產品的需求強勁,而對平板產品的需求則較為疲軟但保持穩定。儘管如此,我們正在獲得市場份額,並且我們對近期鋼鐵廠的營運表現感到鼓舞。
Sheet shipments nearly matched our record volumes set in the prior quarter with sheet backlog tons up 13% year-over-year. And our bar products backlog at the end of the third quarter was 35% higher than the same time last year.
板材出貨量幾乎與上一季創下的紀錄持平,板材積壓訂單噸數年增 13%。第三季末,我們的酒吧產品積壓訂單比去年同期成長了 35%。
Turning to steel products, we generated pretax earnings of $319 million, down from $392 million in the second quarter. Despite the sequential decline, volumes held up better than expected, with external shipments increasing 4% quarter-over-quarter.
就鋼鐵產品而言,我們實現了 3.19 億美元的稅前利潤,低於第二季的 3.92 億美元。儘管較上月下降,但銷量表現優於預期,對外出貨量較上季成長 4%。
However, operating profit was impacted by less favorable product mix, higher substrate pricing and planned outage cost. Our steel products backlog has moderated alongside typical seasonal ordering trends, but ended the third quarter 14% higher year over year. The backlog extends well into the second quarter of 2026 for some of our more custom engineered product lines. Quoting activity remains robust, and we believe this reflects business confidence among our customers servicing the construction and infrastructure markets as well as their confidence in Nucor as a reliable provider of high-quality solutions.
然而,由於產品組合不太有利、基材價格較高以及計劃內停工成本,營業利潤受到了影響。我們的鋼鐵產品積壓訂單量隨著典型的季節性訂單趨勢有所緩和,但第三季末仍比去年同期成長了 14%。對於我們一些客製化程度較高的工程產品線來說,積壓訂單將持續到 2026 年第二季。報價活動依然強勁,我們認為這反映了服務於建築和基礎設施市場的客戶的商業信心,以及他們對紐柯作為高品質解決方案的可靠供應商的信心。
Turning to the raw materials segment, we realized pretax earnings of approximately $43 million compared to $57 million for the prior quarter. The primary driver of the sequential decline was lower pricing, partially offset by lower operating cost. Moving to the balance sheet. Nucor continues to have a differentiated position of strength and flexibility in our industry. An example of this was on display in the past quarter as evidenced by our recent ratings upgrade by Moody's.
再來看原料業務,我們實現了約 4,300 萬美元的稅前利潤,而上一季為 5,700 萬美元。導致價格環比下降的主要原因是價格走低,但營運成本下降部分抵消了這種影響。接下來查看資產負債表。紐柯公司在業界持續保持著實力和靈活性方面的差異化優勢。上個季度就出現了這樣一個例子,穆迪最近上調了我們的評級。
And we remain committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit profile. We ended the third quarter with a total debt to capital ratio of approximately 24% and cash of approximately $2.7 billion. We generated $1.3 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter, a testament to Nucor's cash-generating operating model. Capital expenditures totaled $807 million for the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $2.6 billion. We now expect full-year CapEx to be $3.3 billion for 2025 as some project spending was pulled forward from 2026.
我們將繼續致力於保持良好的投資等級信用評級。第三季末,我們的總負債資本比率約為 24%,現金約為 27 億美元。本季我們產生了 13 億美元的營運現金流,證明了紐柯公司現金創造型經營模式的有效性。本季資本支出總額為 8.07 億美元,使我們今年迄今的總支出達到 26 億美元。我們現在預計 2025 年全年資本支出為 33 億美元,因為一些項目支出從 2026 年提前到了 2025 年。
We will provide more detail on our CapEx budget for 2026 on our year-end earnings call in January, but we expect overall expenditures to decline by more than $0.5 billion compared with 2025. The cornerstone of Nucor's capital allocation framework is providing meaningful cash returns to shareholders. During the second quarter, we returned $227 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. Through the end of the third quarter, we've returned nearly $1 billion, representing 72% of Nucor's year-to-date net earnings. During the same period, we repurchased approximately 4.8 million shares at a weighted average price of approximately $126 per share.
我們將在 1 月的年終收益電話會議上提供 2026 年資本支出預算的更多細節,但我們預計與 2025 年相比,總支出將減少超過 5 億美元。紐柯資本配置架構的基石是為股東提供有意義的現金回報。第二季度,我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 2.27 億美元。截至第三季末,我們已返還近 10 億美元,佔紐柯公司今年迄今淨利的 72%。同期,我們以每股約 126 美元的加權平均價格回購了約 480 萬股股票。
Turning to our near- to medium-term demand outlook, I'd like to take a closer look at the distinct demand drivers shaping our flats, longs and steel products markets. While we're seeing varying levels of demand across these products, we expect each will continue to benefit from further declines in imports as the effects of tariffs and trade cases are realized. Beginning with our flat products, we expect strong demand from energy, data centers and advanced manufacturing. At the same time, we're monitoring softer conditions in areas like residential construction, consumer durables, heavy equipment and agricultural machinery.
展望近期至中期需求前景,我想更深入地了解影響我們扁鋼、長鋼和鋼鐵產品市場的不同需求驅動因素。雖然我們看到這些產品的需求水準各不相同,但我們預計隨著稅務和貿易案件的影響逐漸顯現,進口量的進一步下降將繼續惠及每種產品。首先,我們預期來自能源、資料中心和先進製造業的平板產品將有強勁的需求。同時,我們也關注住宅建築、耐用消費品、重型設備和農業機械等領域的疲軟狀況。
Additionally, new domestic supply is still being absorbed in the market. Turning to long products. Our bar and structural mills continue to benefit from a number of demand drivers, underpinning a more constructive near-term outlook that we remain mindful of typical seasonal purchasing trends. Infrastructure spending remains elevated. The American Road and Transportation Builders Association reports that bridge and tunnel contract awards are up nearly 20% year-over-year.
此外,新增的國內供應仍被市場消化。轉向長條狀產品。我們的棒材和型材軋機繼續受益於多種需求驅動因素,這支撐了更積極的近期前景,但我們仍需關注典型的季節性採購趨勢。基礎設施支出仍居高不下。美國道路和交通建設者協會報告稱,橋樑和隧道合約授予數量年增近 20%。
And 60% of total funds allocated to the IIJA highway projects remain unspent. As Leon mentioned, data centers and energy infrastructure needed to power them will continue to drive pronounced demand for Nucor's long products. We also see good demand from institutional construction, stadiums, warehouses and chip facilities. In addition, we expect to capitalize on the strong regional demand and gain market share as our North Carolina micro mill and new melt shop in Arizona ramp up
分配給 IIJA 高速公路計畫的總資金中有 60% 仍未使用。正如萊昂所提到的,資料中心和為其供電所需的能源基礎設施將繼續推動對紐柯長材產品的顯著需求。我們也看到來自機構建設、體育場館、倉庫和晶片加工廠的良好需求。此外,隨著我們在北卡羅來納州的微型鋼廠和亞利桑那州的新熔煉廠逐步投產,我們預計將利用強勁的區域需求並擴大市場份額。
Finally, in our steel products segment, many of our business lines are benefiting from pockets of strength in non-residential construction. As the market leader in custom engineered building products like joist and deck, metal buildings and insulated metal panels, we're seeing strong customer interest in our capabilities, particularly from those prioritizing speed, quality and certainty of execution. We also expect healthy demand for our rebar fabrication business and incremental demand for tubular products. That said, we're closely monitoring the impact of evolving trade policy, higher construction cost and persistent softness among residential construction activity.
最後,在我們的鋼鐵產品領域,許多業務線都受益於非住宅建築領域的強勁成長。身為托樑、甲板、金屬建築和保溫金屬板等客製化工程建築產品的市場領導者,我們看到客戶對我們的能力表現出濃厚的興趣,尤其是那些優先考慮速度、品質和執行確定性的客戶。我們也預期鋼筋加工業務的需求將保持良好勢頭,管材產品的需求也將逐步成長。儘管如此,我們仍在密切關注不斷變化的貿易政策、不斷上漲的建築成本以及住宅建築活動持續疲軟的影響。
Turning to our fourth-quarter outlook, we expect Nucor's consolidated earnings to be lower than the third quarter. We expect lower total volumes across all operating segments due to a combination of factors, including seasonal effects, Nucor's fiscal quarter continuing five less shipping days and two scheduled outages at our DRI facilities during the fourth quarter. We anticipate a decline in realized pricing within our steel mills segment, primarily driven by sheet.
展望第四季度,我們預期紐柯公司的綜合收益將低於第三季。由於多種因素的影響,包括季節性因素、紐柯公司本財季發貨天數減少 5 天以及第四季度我們 DRI 工廠的兩次計劃停產,我們預計所有營運部門的總銷量都會下降。我們預期鋼鐵廠部門的實際價格將下降,主要原因是鋼板價格下降。
In contrast, pricing in our steel products segment is expected to remain stable. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect stable domestic steel demand. With the broadest range of capabilities in the North American steel market, Nucor is confident in our ability to create value for our customers and shareholders as we capture a healthy share of that demand.
相比之下,我們鋼鐵產品板塊的價格預計將保持穩定。展望2026年,我們預期國內鋼鐵需求將維持穩定。紐柯公司在北美鋼鐵市場擁有最廣泛的業務能力,我們有信心在滿足市場需求的同時,為客戶和股東創造價值。
And with that, we'd like to hear from you and answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open up the line for questions.
最後,我們很想聽聽您的意見,並回答您可能提出的任何問題。接線員,請開通提問線。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Alex Hacking, Citi.
(操作員說明)Alex Hacking,花旗銀行。
Alexander Hacking - Analyst
Alexander Hacking - Analyst
Congrats on the strong results. It seems like Nucor shipments are growing faster than the industry and you referenced are gaining share. Could you maybe give more color on the kind of specific products where you're gaining share? Any change in strategy that led to you gaining share?
恭喜你們取得優異成績。紐柯公司的出貨量似乎成長速度超過了行業平均水平,而且正如您所提到的,其市場份額也在不斷擴大。能否詳細說明一下你們在哪些具體產品上獲得了市場份額?你們的策略是否有所改變,因而獲得了市場佔有率?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Thanks, Alex. Look, let me begin, Alex, with our most important value, and that is the value of safety. We're on track for a historic eighth year in a row of lowering our I&I rates in creating the safest year in the history of our company. And so I just wanted to take a moment and thank the 33,000 team members that execute that incredible value each and every day across 40 states, 300 locations in multiple countries.
是的。謝謝,亞歷克斯。聽著,亞歷克斯,讓我先從我們最重要的價值觀說起,那就是安全。我們可望連續第八年降低事故和感染率,創造公司史上最安全的一年。因此,我想藉此機會感謝遍布 40 個州、多個國家 300 個地點的 33,000 名團隊成員,他們每天都在創造著這種令人難以置信的價值。
So again, we begin there. But specifically to address your question, Alex, yes, we continue to stay very focused in being the market leader means that we've got to do things to stay out in front. And so as we think about how we've restructured and positioned the plate group is a great example of that, where Brandenburg continue to ramp up. And as you heard Steve mention earlier, in his prepared remarks, the pre-operating start-up costs reduction means that Brandenburg is ramping up faster than we had anticipated. They're doing a great job.
所以,我們又從這裡開始。但具體回答你的問題,Alex,是的,我們繼續保持高度專注,成為市場領導者意味著我們必須採取措施保持領先。因此,當我們思考如何重組和定位盤組時,這就是一個很好的例子,勃蘭登堡繼續加強。正如你之前在史蒂夫的演講稿中聽到的那樣,營運啟動成本的降低意味著勃蘭登堡的擴張速度比我們預期的要快。他們做得很好。
You'll hear more about that in a few moments, I'm sure as we get into plate later in the call. But plate is another broad example where we're focused on that. Long products is another where Nucor is going to continue to look for the opportunities to grow in bar and beams in that segment. But ultimately, what I think the strategy that you've seen playing out over the last few years has really wrapped around our commercial and construction solutions group that are looking to attach these major developers, major hyperscalers that are looking for speed and a capability set that Nucor now has in bringing that to the market. So we're getting a ton of pull-through effect in our product groups from the upstream mills from sheet plate or engineered bar all the way through the downstream adjacent segments.
稍後我們會詳細討論這個問題,相信過一會兒就會談到。但餐盤是另一個我們重點關注的廣泛例子。長材產品是紐柯公司將繼續尋找成長機會的另一個領域,例如棒材和梁材。但歸根結底,我認為過去幾年我們所看到的策略實際上是圍繞著我們的商業和建築解決方案集團展開的,該集團致力於與那些尋求速度和能力的大型開發商和大型超大規模企業建立聯繫,而紐柯公司現在擁有將這些優勢和能力推向市場。因此,從上游軋鋼廠的板材或工程棒材到下游相鄰環節,我們的產品組都獲得了大量的拉動效應。
So we're seeing, I think, a lot of that play out, which is increasing our market share. And again, the capability set. You heard me say in my prepared remarks as well, Alex. You think about how white hot the data center trend is today with our Southwest data products acquisition, with our racking group, with the insulated metal panels as well as the breath of steel products that we make, we are now capable of making 95% of all steel components within the framework building and the hot aisle contained within that data center. So again, it offers a very unique solution set for, again, these developers and hyperscalers.
所以,我認為,我們看到很多這樣的情況正在發生,這正在提高我們的市場份額。再次強調,是能力集合。亞歷克斯,你也在我的發言稿裡聽到了。想想看,如今資料中心的發展趨勢有多火爆,我們收購了西南資料產品公司,成立了機架集團,生產隔熱金屬板以及各種各樣的鋼材產品,我們現在能夠生產資料中心框架建築和熱通道中 95% 的所有鋼材組件。所以,它再次為這些開發者和超大規模資料中心提供了一套非常獨特的解決方案。
Alexander Hacking - Analyst
Alexander Hacking - Analyst
I guess just a follow-up on that point on the data centers, are there specific products that Nucor is selling that are particularly exposed to data centers? I mean I know that choice impact shipments are up over 20% like this year versus last year. Are they an obvious beneficiary from this?
關於資料中心這一點,我想進一步了解一下,紐柯公司銷售的哪些特定產品特別適用於資料中心?我的意思是,我知道今年受精選商品影響的出貨量比去年增加了 20% 以上。他們是這件事的明顯受益者嗎?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Alex, it's really the gambit. So insulated metal panels, joys, grading, decking, fasteners, sprinkler, conduit, the foundations, the rebar and the foundations, the civil side, the sheeting on the outside of the building, the overhead doors from CHI, Ritec and so really, it's the full purview. But John, anything you else would you add to that?
是的,亞歷克斯,這確實是計策。所以,包括保溫金屬板、Joys、平整場地、甲板、緊固件、噴淋器、導管、地基、鋼筋和地基、土建方面、建築物外部的覆層、CHI、Ritec 的捲門等等,實際上涵蓋了所有方面。約翰,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
John Hollatz - Executive Vice President - Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
John Hollatz - Executive Vice President - Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
Yes, Alex. On the joist and deck side, we're definitely feeling the benefits of the data center build-out as well as e-commerce. And we're just well positioned with these end-use markets because of our industry-leading capabilities, the breadth of our product offering, our nationwide coverage. Right now, our joist and deck backlogs are about 25% higher than what they were a year ago at this time. They extend well into 2026, and we're optimistic about what the next year is going to bring.
是的,亞歷克斯。在托樑和甲板方面,我們確實感受到了資料中心建置和電子商務帶來的好處。我們憑藉著業界領先的能力、廣泛的產品供應和全國範圍的覆蓋,在這些終端用戶市場中佔據了有利地位。目前,我們的托樑和甲板積壓訂單比一年前同期增加了約 25%。合約有效期一直延續到 2026 年,我們對明年充滿信心。
Operator
Operator
Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.
比爾彼得森,摩根大通。
William Peterson - Analyst
William Peterson - Analyst
Congrats on the quarter. Maybe to follow up on this data center opportunity, but maybe to contextualize relative to what I think is a larger market, much larger now, which is warehouses, I guess, based off of your backlog, how should we think about square foot growth beyond 2025, maybe from a market perspective as well as your own opportunity? And is there a way you can, I guess, help quantify or provide any anecdotes on how you're gaining share in the market with like Southwest data products compared to industry growth averages? Just trying to get more context on this opportunity relative to larger awards such as warehouses.
恭喜你本季取得佳績。或許可以跟進這個資料中心的機會,但或許應該將其與我認為更大的市場(現在規模大得多)——倉庫市場——聯繫起來。我想,根據你們的積壓訂單,我們該如何看待 2025 年以後的面積成長?或許可以從市場角度以及你們自身的機會來考慮?請問您能否提供一些數據,或者舉例說明一下,與行業平均增長水平相比,您是如何利用西南航空等公司的數據產品來擴大市場份額的?我只是想了解這個機會相對於倉庫等大型專案的背景資訊。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Bill, let me start with the -- to your point, the larger segment, which is the warehousing. Look, that is probably flat year over year and expect it to be about the same in '26. And so again, that peaked, I don't know, '21, '22, where we saw massive from Amazon, others that were building as fast as they could come. So the shift has come in the last 12, 18 months into the data center side. But again, with the energy infrastructure is a big piece of that, that Nucor is, again, tying into Southwest data products enables us to do things in that hot aisle that we weren't able to do prior.
是的,比爾,讓我先從──正如你所指出的,較大的部分,也就是倉儲部分開始。你看,這可能與往年持平,預計 2026 年的情況也差不多。所以,這種情況再次達到了頂峰,我不知道是在 2021 年還是 2022 年,我們看到了亞馬遜的大規模擴張,以及其他公司都在以最快的速度進行建設。因此,這種轉變在過去 12 到 18 個月裡已經轉移到了資料中心方面。但能源基礎設施是其中的重要組成部分,Nucor 與西南能源公司的數據產品再次連接,使我們能夠在熱通道中做一些以前無法做到的事情。
But Nucor now has a Nucor warehouse and data systems growth that kind of provides an overarching solution set for, again, these major developers. And, John, maybe unpack that just a little bit further on how we use that go to market with that?
但紐柯公司現在擁有紐柯倉庫和資料系統,這為這些主要開發商提供了一套全面的解決方案。約翰,或許你可以再詳細解釋我們如何利用這個工具進行市場推廣?
John Hollatz - Executive Vice President - Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
John Hollatz - Executive Vice President - Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
Yes, Bill, when you think about a data center, and it's on our slide 7 in our presentation, all of the different products that Nucor supplies into that market. And we're the only company that can supply all of those products. Many of our competitors can supply one of them. We have the ability to supply all and we work directly with a lot of these companies to guarantee the surety of their supply to meet their deliveries to get these facilities operational on time. It's a big advantage that we have with that entire portfolio of products.
是的,比爾,當你想到資料中心時,正如我們在簡報的第 7 頁中提到的,紐柯公司向該市場供應的所有不同產品。我們是唯一一家能夠供應所有這些產品的公司。我們的許多競爭對手都能提供其中一種。我們有能力供應所有物資,並且我們直接與其中許多公司合作,以確保他們的物資供應,滿足他們的交貨需求,使這些設施能夠按時投入營運。我們擁有如此豐富的產品組合,這是我們的一大優勢。
In addition to that, having redundancy in our portfolio we mentioned, we've converted a couple of facilities over the last several months to help the build-out of these data centers because we see that market being so hot moving into the coming years.
除此之外,正如我們之前提到的,為了確保投資組合的冗餘性,我們在過去幾個月裡改造了幾處設施,以幫助建造這些資料中心,因為我們看到未來幾年這個市場將會非常火爆。
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Bill, this is Steve. I'd like to just add one thing that's implicit in the questions that you and Alex both ask is a commentary on the flexibility of Nucor's overall portfolio. And so as you see different markets get strong, Nucor has excelled over the years at winning in a variety of different ways. And right now, you're focused in on data centers, and we can capture, as John and Leon described, unprecedented. We're unparalleled with anyone in the space and the ability to gain in that area.
比爾,這位是史蒂夫。我想補充一點,你和 Alex 提出的問題中隱含著對紐柯整體投資組合彈性的評論。因此,隨著不同市場的強勁發展,紐柯公司多年來在各種不同的領域都取得了成功。而現在,你們正專注於資料中心,正如約翰和里昂所描述的那樣,我們可以獲得前所未有的機會。我們在這一領域擁有無可比擬的優勢,並且有能力在該領域取得更大的發展。
But it's not lost on us and shouldn't be on you that Nucor has won at various times when different markets have been strong because of the product diversity and the flexibility that we have in supply in the market.
但我們很清楚,你們也應該明白,紐柯之所以能在不同的市場強勁時期取得成功,是因為我們在市場上擁有產品多樣性和靈活的供應能力。
William Peterson - Analyst
William Peterson - Analyst
No, I appreciate that color. I guess maybe just to follow-up, maybe I missed -- or I didn't hear it, but you said data center flat for 26. Is there a sense for how we should think about the data center growth next year? And then I have a follow-up...
不,我很喜歡這個顏色。我想再確認一下,也許我錯過了——或者我沒聽到,但您說資料中心平倉26。對於明年資料中心的發展,我們該如何看待?然後我還有後續問題…
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Sorry, Bill. No, warehouse, traditional warehouse would be flat. Data centers are up double-digit growth for the next 5 to 6 years is what every major category where we're looking at is tracking. So I think in my prepared comments, that I opened with the forecast is for 60 million square feet of capacity in 2026.
是的。對不起,比爾。不,傳統的倉庫應該是平的。未來 5 到 6 年,資料中心將保持兩位數的成長,這是我們關注的每個主要類別都呈現的趨勢。所以我認為,在我準備好的評論中,我開頭預測的是,到 2026 年,產能將達到 6,000 萬平方英尺。
So it's an incredibly fast-growing segment. So not flat on the data center side.
所以這是一個成長速度驚人的領域。所以資料中心那邊並不平坦。
William Peterson - Analyst
William Peterson - Analyst
Yes. Well, understood. On my second question, so scrap cost was down, but conversion costs were up. I guess can you speak to what contributed to the latter? Is this related to the new mill ramps?
是的。明白了。關於我的第二個問題,廢料成本下降了,但加工成本上升了。我想請您談談導致後者的原因?這和新的軋機斜坡有關嗎?
Or is there something else there? And I guess, more importantly, how should we think about this trend into the fourth quarter?
或者,那裡還有其他東西嗎?更重要的是,我們該如何看待這股趨勢在第四季的發展?
David Sumoski - Chief Operating Officer
David Sumoski - Chief Operating Officer
Thanks, Bill. This is Dave Sumoski. So although our cost quarter-over-quarter cost year-over-year are down 5%. But specifically, the items affecting the quarter-over-quarter results are slab costs for CSI. Some of our consumables was up such as refractory and labor was slightly up due to some significant planned outages in the quarter.
謝謝,比爾。這是戴夫·蘇莫斯基。因此,儘管我們的季度成本和年度成本均下降了 5%。但具體來說,影響季度環比業績的項目是 CSI 的分攤成本。由於本季進行了一些重要的計畫內停工,我們的一些消耗品(如耐火材料)價格上漲,人工成本也略有上漲。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Lawson Winder, Bank of America.
(操作說明)勞森·溫德,美國銀行。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
I appreciate the update today. Could I ask about the guide, which, I mean, in the guidance for Q4, you pointed to lower volumes just because of fewer shipping days. I mean, that all makes sense. But you also suggested there was some lower realized cheap pricing factored in. Yesterday, Nucor's CSP was $10 higher.
感謝今天的更新。請問一下關於業績指引的問題嗎?我是說,在第四季的業績指引中,您指出銷量下降只是因為出貨天數減少。我的意思是,這一切都說得通。但你也暗示過,實際成交價可能低於市價。昨天,紐柯公司的CSP上漲了10美元。
I mean, was that factored in? I mean we also saw a competitor raise their pricing by $50 yesterday. How should we think about the movement we've just seen very recently in that?
我的意思是,這一點考慮進去了嗎?我的意思是,昨天我們也看到一家競爭對手將價格提高了 50 美元。我們該如何看待最近出現的這種趨勢?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Lawson. I appreciate the question. And most of Nucor's sheet deliveries are based on contracts. So while you see the moves today, what I would tell you is you're seeing that typical seasonality and a softer Q2 flow through the order book, which is our projection for Q4 to see lower realized pricing. But again, with the current price increases in that group, we anticipate Q1 will be -- we'll certainly realize those higher pricing.
是的,勞森。我很感謝你提出這個問題。紐柯公司的大部分鋼板交付都是基於合約進行的。所以,儘管你今天看到了這些波動,但我想告訴你的是,你看到的是典型的季節性因素,以及第二季度訂單量疲軟的趨勢,這也解釋了我們預測第四季度實際價格會下降的原因。但是,鑑於該類別目前的價格上漲,我們預計第一季將會——我們肯定會看到更高的價格。
So it takes some time, right, to flow through that. But on the positive side, there's 2 factors I'd point out in terms of how quickly that can move through. One is the service center inventory side of things is pretty very, well, seasonally low in terms of that overall picture, but also internally to Nucor. We are not sitting on high volumes of inventory at our mills. So it's going to enable us a much faster realization of that pricing you just mentioned. So again, those two factors, we'll see that move through the order books into the balance sheet for Q1.
所以,要慢慢消化吸收,對吧。但從正面的方面來看,有兩點因素可以加快這一進程。一方面,就整體情況而言,服務中心的庫存水準非常低,而且就紐柯公司內部而言,庫存水準也處於季節性低點。我們的工廠並沒有大量庫存積壓。所以這將使我們能夠更快地實現您剛才提到的定價。所以,這兩個因素,我們將在第一季的訂單簿中反映在資產負債表中。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Fantastic. And can I ask on acquisition opportunities? When you look at the relevant acquisition set for Nucor, how would you characterize that in terms of product and region or segment upstream versus downstream? I appreciate any thoughts?
極好的。請問貴公司是否有收購機會?從產品、地區或細分市場(上游與下游)的角度來看,Nucor 的相關收購組合如何描述?大家有什麼想法嗎?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Lawson, broadly, here's how I would tell you, our mission statement is very [indiscernible]. We launched in January 1, 2020. It's to grow the core, expand beyond and move our culture. The core steelmaking capabilities, you're seeing that with the start-ups of electric fins, micro mill in North Carolina, the melt shop in Kingman, Arizona, they're ramping up and start-up at Crawfordsville's Galv line, Berkley next year, the start-up of our first towers and structures facility in Alabama, the next two, that will be next year. And then that will ultimately culminate with the start-up of the largest investment in Nucor's history in Mason County, West Virginia, with the most state-of-the-art sheet mill that's going to offer a capability set unparalleled in our industry.
是的,勞森,總的來說,我會這樣告訴你,我們的使命宣言非常[無法辨認]。我們於2020年1月1日正式上線。這是為了壯大核心力量,拓展視野,推動文化發展。核心煉鋼能力方面,您可以看到,北卡羅來納州的電翅片微型軋機、亞利桑那州金曼的熔煉車間正在啟動,克勞福茲維爾的鍍鋅生產線正在加速建設,伯克利明年也將投產,我們在阿拉巴馬州的第一座塔架和結構工廠也將啟動,接下來的兩座工廠也將在明年投產。最終,這將促成紐柯公司歷史上在西維吉尼亞州梅森縣啟動的最大規模投資項目,該項目將建成最先進的板材廠,提供業內無與倫比的生產能力。
And so we're going to have the breadth of capabilities to provide our customers the steel they need today as well as what they're going to need for tomorrow. So that's the core. As we think about expand beyond, it sits in the CHI and Ritec Southwest data products, our Summit, which is the first acquisition in the Towers & Structures we made. The insulated metal panels group that continues to bring a really differentiated product mix to the Nucor offering. So as we look to the future now is -- again, we don't anticipate building any more greenfield facilities, at least in the near term.
因此,我們將具備廣泛的能力,既能為客戶提供他們現在需要的鋼鐵,也能為他們未來所需的鋼鐵提供所需的鋼鐵。這就是核心內容。當我們考慮進一步拓展時,它位於 CHI 和 Ritec Southwest 資料產品中,即我們的 Summit,這是我們在塔架和結構領域的首次收購。保溫金屬板集團持續為紐柯公司帶來真正差異化的產品組合。所以展望未來,我們再次重申,至少在近期內,我們不打算再新建任何綠地設施。
That capital is now going to get deployed in the adjacent space as well. Again, right more we'll leave you that ambiguous. If we think a little bit more about, well, where is that going to go? It's going to go on the mega trends that we're seeing in the US economy like Towers & Structure.
這筆資金現在也將部署到鄰近領域。再說一遍,我們還是讓你們保持這種模稜兩可的狀態吧。如果我們再仔細想想,那它最終會走向何方呢?它將沿著我們目前在美國經濟中看到的幾大趨勢發展,例如高樓大廈和結構工程。
So like energy, energy infrastructure, the data center community. So what are the things that we're not providing or don't provide today that again, hit a few boxes, right? So as we look for targets, it's got to be like-minded culture that fits who we are. It's going to be a converter model that we bring in terms of our competencies to that acquisition. Three, it's going to be low capital intensity.
例如能源、能源基礎設施、資料中心領域。那麼,我們今天沒有提供或不提供的哪些東西,又會觸及到一些方面,對吧?所以,我們在尋找目標時,必須找到與我們志同道合、符合我們價值觀的文化。我們將採取一種轉換模式,把我們自身的能力運用到這次收購中。第三,它的資本密集度較低。
And four, we're going to look for 4 and 5 high margins. And fifth, the sort of countercyclical to the traditional cyclicality of steel. So we want something that isn't is affected by the true steel cycles that we see over, again, the last 60 years that we've been in this business.
第四,我們要找利潤率最高的 4 和 5 家公司。第五,它具有與鋼鐵傳統週期性相反的反週期性。所以,我們想要的是一種不受過去 60 年來我們所看到的真正的鋼鐵週期影響的產品。
And again, CHI, Ritec, IMP all provide a much more stable earnings platform. growth throughout all the sectors and highs and lows in both the financial crisis COVID and whatnot. They have -- their return profiles are incredibly stable. And so again, ultimately, our goal is to stabilize Nucor's overall earnings to provide higher highs and higher lows.
此外,CHI、Ritec 和 IMP 都提供了更穩定的獲利平台,涵蓋所有行業,並經歷了金融危機、新冠疫情等各種時期的起伏。他們的回報情況非常穩定。因此,歸根結底,我們的目標是穩定紐柯公司的整體獲利,從而實現更高的峰值和更高的谷值。
Operator
Operator
Timna Tanners, Wells Fargo.
蒂姆娜·坦納斯,富國銀行。
Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst
Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst
I like to ask about my home state is Washington and what's happening in Seattle. So I saw the announcement of not replacing the existing mill. Can you just elaborate on that decision? Does that -- you said you could supply it from other mills. But with imports to the West Coast down, I'm assuming like is there enough supply on the West Coast?
我想問我的家鄉華盛頓州以及西雅圖正在發生的事情。我看到了不更換現有磨粉機的公告。能詳細解釋一下這個決定嗎?你說你可以從其他工廠供貨。但由於西海岸的進口量下降,我猜想西海岸的供應是否足夠?
Can you supply it from Kingman? And are you just not replacing the existing mall? Or are you just not shutting it down?
你們能從金曼供貨嗎?你們不打算拆除重建現有的購物中心嗎?還是說你根本沒把它關掉?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Look, you kind of answered the question within that question as well, Timna. So thank you for it. Look, have a great relationship with the city of Seattle and our team out there does an amazing job connecting with our community, being in that community and welcoming that committee with open arms and how we take care of our safety, the environmental, the sustainability side. So they do a really, really nice job.
是的。你看,提姆娜,你其實也回答了這個問題中的另一個問題。所以,謝謝你。你看,我們與西雅圖市保持著良好的關係,我們的團隊在那裡與社區建立了非常出色的聯繫,融入了社區,張開雙臂歡迎委員會,並且我們非常重視安全、環境和永續發展方面。所以他們做得非常非常好。
But it is as we step back and look at our prudent capital allocation, where our dollars best spent. And where is the best returns on those dollars going to be? With the investment of the melt shop in Kingman, Arizona, our Utah facility and the breadth and exposure of our Seattle mill, we are adequately covered for the Western side of the United States as well as Western Canada. So again, as we step back to really evaluate that, we feel really good about where the mill is and its capability set in Seattle, but couple that with the addition of Kingman's melt shop, and we think we've got a very adequate coverage there. So we're going to use those dollars elsewhere to think about growth.
但當我們退後一步,審視我們審慎的資本配置時,就會發現,我們的錢花在了哪裡才是最划算的。那麼,這些錢投資到哪裡才能獲得最佳回報呢?隨著我們在亞利桑那州金曼市投資建設熔煉車間,加上我們在猶他州的工廠以及我們在西雅圖的工廠的規模和影響力,我們在美國西部以及加拿大西部都得到了充分的覆蓋。所以,當我們退後一步真正評估這一點時,我們對西雅圖的工廠及其產能感到非常滿意,再加上金曼熔煉廠的加入,我們認為我們在那裡的覆蓋範圍已經非常充足了。所以我們將把這些資金用於其他方面,以考慮成長。
And again, how do we not just meet our cost of capital, but double our cost of capital. How do we make sure that we're generating EVA for our shareholders for the long term? And that's where we're going to put that. And again, if we don't have that home, as you've seen over the course of the years and following us, Timna, this year, we're at 72% return of our net earnings back to our shareholders and dividends or share buybacks, and that will continue.
我們又該如何做到不僅滿足資金成本,還要讓資金成本翻倍?我們如何確保為股東創造長期經濟增加價值(EVA)?這就是我們要放置它的地方。再說一遍,如果我們沒有那個家,正如你這些年來一直關注我們並看到的那樣,蒂姆娜,今年我們將淨收益的 72% 返還給股東,用於分紅或股票回購,這種情況還會繼續下去。
Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst
Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst
Great. That's my next question. But just to clarify, the Seattle mill keeps operating. You're just not replacing it with the micro mill, is that right?
偉大的。這是我的下一個問題。但需要澄清的是,西雅圖的工廠仍在繼續運作。你只是不打算用微型研磨機代替它,對嗎?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
That's correct.
沒錯。
Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst
Timna Tanners - Equity Analyst
Okay, super. So along the lines of the shareholder returns, your third quarter buybacks at $100 million. Is the smallest you've had, I think, since 2020 when you didn't have any buybacks. Is that correct? And if so, is that a statement of anything?
好的,太棒了。因此,按照股東回報的思路,你們第三季回購了 1 億美元的股票。我想這是自 2020 年你們沒有進行任何股票回購以來,你們的股票數量最少的一次。對嗎?如果真是這樣,這又說明了什麼呢?
Do you have other uses of capital? Anything you can elaborate on there?
您還有其他資金用途嗎?能詳細說明一下嗎?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I'll let Steve answer that. But I would remind you the $13 billion that we've returned back to our shareholders over the last five years, but I think you're accurate. But Steve.
好的,這個問題就讓史蒂夫來回答吧。但我要提醒您,過去五年我們已經向股東返還了 130 億美元,但我認為您的說法是正確的。但是史蒂夫。
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yes. Timna, you're correct. That is the lowest quarterly return we've had, but we remain committed to getting back at least 40% of our earnings every year. We don't necessarily do that every quarter. And so over the course of the year, we're well ahead of that mark.
是的。提姆娜,你說得對。這是我們有史以來最低的季度回報率,但我們仍然致力於每年至少收回 40% 的收益。我們不一定每季都這樣做。因此,今年以來,我們已經遠遠超過了這個目標。
And as Leon alluded to, over the last 5 years, we've given back around 60%. Just under 60% of the earnings. So we've continued that discipline of balancing investment with our capital and growing the company while we also maintain strong liquidity and a strong balance sheet position. We've actually improved that even getting the upgrade from Moody's this past September and give meaningful returns. So those 3 elements remain in place, and that's not going to change going forward.
正如萊昂所暗示的那樣,在過去的 5 年裡,我們回饋了大約 60%。略低於總收益的60%。因此,我們一直秉持著平衡投資與資本、發展公司,同時維持強勁流動性和穩健資產負債表的原則。事實上,我們已經取得了進步,甚至在今年9月獲得了穆迪的評級上調,並帶來了可觀的回報。所以這三個要素保持不變,而且將來不會改變。
So I wouldn't get too focused in on the quarter quarterly number. I'd just remind you that we remain very mindful and intentional about the management of those 3 pillars of our capital allocation framework.
所以我不會太關注季度數字。我只想提醒各位,我們始終非常重視並有意識地管理我們資本配置框架的這三大支柱。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc.
(操作員說明)Phil Gibbs,KeyBanc。
Philip Gibbs - Analyst
Philip Gibbs - Analyst
Just wondering if you could give us the state of the West Virginia sheet investment in terms of where you are in the spending and your expected start-up time frame.
我想了解您能否介紹一下西維吉尼亞州的土地投資現狀,包括您目前的投資進度和預計的啟動時間。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, certainly, Phil, I'll ask Noah Hanners, our EVP over Sheet Group, to give you a more detailed update. Noah?
當然可以,菲爾,我會請負責Sheet Group的執行副總裁諾亞·漢納斯給你更詳細的最新消息。諾亞?
Noah Hanners - Executive Vice President - Sheet Products
Noah Hanners - Executive Vice President - Sheet Products
Yes. Thanks for the question, Phil. It gives me a good opportunity to congratulate, recognize the team on the progress there. I'd tell you, we're at about 75% on the build. And in terms of capital spending, we're about at that same point now.
是的。謝謝你的提問,菲爾。這給了我一個很好的機會,向團隊表示祝賀,並認可他們的進步。我可以告訴你,我們的建造進度已經完成了約 75%。就資本支出而言,我們現在也差不多處於同樣的水準。
Most of the 25% we have remaining remains in the labor category. So if you go there today, it looks like a steel mill. And so we have the world's best steelmaking team, and you see the foundation of it starting there with that team in West Virginia. We have done an awesome job that West Virginia team has done an awesome job of bringing in some of the most talented people from across our sheet group and from across Nucor to lead that project. We've done a great job of hiring and experience and I get often asked about like how do you feel about this investment and we could not be more excited because we're taking this awesome team, and we're giving them the world's best equipment, like they're going to have assets, capabilities there that are the best in our market.
剩餘的 25% 大部分仍屬於勞動力類別。所以如果你今天去那裡,它看起來像個鋼鐵廠。因此,我們擁有世界上最好的煉鋼團隊,而這一切的基礎正是從西維吉尼亞州的那支團隊開始的。我們做得非常出色,西維吉尼亞團隊也做得非常出色,他們從我們整個板材集團和紐柯公司內部招募了一些最有才華的人才來領導這個專案。我們在招募和經驗方面做得非常出色,經常有人問我對這項投資有何感想,我們感到無比興奮,因為我們擁有了一支優秀的團隊,並為他們配備了世界上最好的設備,他們將擁有市場上最好的資產和能力。
And then we are turning them loose in a region where we've been underserved, but where we have really strong customer demand. When you stack those things up, we're going to be extremely successful with that investment, and we're excited about what the future brings for West Virginia.
然後,我們將他們派往一個我們服務不足但客戶需求非常強勁的地區。綜合考慮這些因素,這項投資將會非常成功,我們對西維吉尼亞州的未來充滿期待。
Philip Gibbs - Analyst
Philip Gibbs - Analyst
And then just a question for Steve. On the tax side, is there a distinct difference between your cash tax rate and your book tax rate for '25 and '26, given the recent changes in tax legislation?
最後,我還有一個問題想問史蒂夫。就稅務方面而言,考慮到最近的稅務立法變化,您的 2025 年和 2026 年的現金稅率和帳面稅率之間是否存在明顯差異?
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
No. Surprisingly, Phil, not necessarily because of the way that legislation was written, it accelerates things that start after legislation. Most of our spend has already been started. So to give you a sense and a feel for that, the deferred tax benefits, the cash flow benefits this year in '25 will be around $100 million. And when you look out into '26, that gets -- it will be smaller because of the nature of the bill.
不。令人驚訝的是,菲爾,這不一定是因為立法的方式,而是因為它加速了立法之後開始的事情。我們的大部分支出已經開始了。為了讓大家對這個數字有個概念,2025 年的遞延稅收優惠和現金流優惠將約為 1 億美元。展望 2026 年,由於法案的性質,這個數字將會更小。
So the One Big Beautiful Bill had relatively modest impact for us on that. It does accelerate some of the R&D credits a little bit. That's where some of the gains coming from. But in terms of the capital spending, maybe not as pronounced as you might expect given the dollars we're spending on capital.
所以,這項「一項偉大的法案」對我們在這方面的影響相對較小。它確實能稍微加快一些研發稅收抵免的發放。這就是部分收益的來源。但就資本支出而言,考慮到我們在資本上的投入,可能沒有你預期的那麼明顯。
Operator
Operator
Katja Jancic, BMO Capital.
Katja Jancic,BMO Capital。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Starting on the start-up costs, given that you have a couple of projects now that are ramping up, how should we think about these costs over the next few quarters?
首先談談啟動成本,鑑於您現在有幾個項目正在逐步推進,我們應該如何考慮未來幾季的這些成本?
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Katja, this is Steve. We would expect over the next quarter then to be in line with the third quarter. And give or take, they're going to be in that range into the first quarter as well. So call it $100 million to $110 million a quarter going forward for the next couple of quarters.
卡佳,這位是史蒂夫。我們預計下一季將與第三季持平。而且,他們在第一季大概也會維持在這個範圍內。因此,預計未來幾個季度,每季的營收將達到 1 億至 1.1 億美元。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
And then I think some of the margin compression in the mill segment was tied to the slabs you purchased for the TSI operations. If I'm not mistaken, that mostly comes from Brazil. Is that correct? And if so, why not use more of the material produced internally?
然後我認為軋鋼廠部分利潤率的下降與你們為 TSI 運營購買的鋼坯有關。如果我沒記錯的話,那主要是來自巴西。對嗎?如果真是這樣,為什麼不多利用內部生產的材料呢?
Noah Hanners - Executive Vice President - Sheet Products
Noah Hanners - Executive Vice President - Sheet Products
Katja, this is Noah. I'll take that. Yes, mostly from Brazil, and we have been mostly slab served there this year, but we have a team that looks at the decision about whether to supply with internal substrates, so coils from our own mills like Allison or Profertil more to buy slabs.
卡佳,這是諾亞。我接受。是的,主要來自巴西,今年我們主要從那裡採購板材,但我們有一個團隊負責決定是否供應內部基材,例如從我們自己的工廠(如 Allison 或 Profertil)採購卷材,而不是購買板材。
Most of this year, it's made the most economic sense to buy slab and roll it to our hot mill, but there have been months where we supplied a lot more coil. And I would tell you, over the course of this year, we've leaned into more of our own internal substrate. So that team will continue to look at what makes the most economic sense and we'll go that way.
今年大部分時間裡,購買鋼坯並將其軋到我們的熱軋機是最經濟的做法,但也有一些月份我們供應了更多的鋼捲。而且我可以告訴你,在今年這一年裡,我們更依賴自己的內在資源。所以,團隊將繼續研究最符合經濟效益的方案,我們將朝著這個方向努力。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Jones, UBS.
瑞銀集團的安德魯瓊斯。
Andrew Jones - Equity Analyst
Andrew Jones - Equity Analyst
I've got a couple of questions on price hikes. And first of all, aborted hike from some of your peers. It sounds from the commentary like you didn't support it. Curious on the reasons there. And then secondly, on plates, curious how you see the market at the moment.
關於物價上漲,我有幾個問題。首先,你的一些同伴取消了徒步旅行。從你的評論來看,你似乎不支持它。很好奇其中的原因。其次,關於餐盤,我很好奇您目前如何看待市場。
Obviously, we've had some relief on the import side or we should have done, and it doesn't seem like the Canada carve-out is coming anytime soon. So I'm curious how you're sort of thinking about pricing and the state of the market in the coming months in play given that sort of tighter supply side?
顯然,我們在進口方面已經得到了一些緩解,或者說我們應該得到了緩解,但加拿大豁免似乎短期內不會到來。所以我很好奇,在供應趨緊的情況下,您是如何看待未來幾個月的定價和市場狀況的?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Andrew, we'll start off with the bar group. I'll ask Randy to just give you an update on your questions there, and then we'll take it to Brad on plate.
好的。安德魯,我們先從酒吧組開始。我會請蘭迪向你報告你剛才的問題,然後我們再把話題交給布萊德。
Randy Spicer - Executive Vice President - Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
Randy Spicer - Executive Vice President - Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
Yes. Andy, thank you for the question. Certainly, we're not going to comment on specific pricing actions. But what I can tell you is that the momentum across our bar products, it remains very strong. We're seeing robust order interest across all regions and key end markets.
是的。安迪,謝謝你的提問。當然,我們不會對具體的定價措施發表評論。但我可以告訴大家的是,我們酒吧產品的銷售動能依然非常強勁。我們看到所有地區和主要終端市場的訂單需求都非常強勁。
And as kind of has been mentioned, it's driven by infrastructure projects, chip plants, warehouses and data centers. And that strength is being amplified by the continued growth of our downstream businesses, Nucor rebar fab, Vulcraft and so forth. So it's also worth noting we have implemented and realized meaningful price increases in merchant bar throughout 2025, supported by our multiyear high backlogs and extended lead times. So all of that gives us confidence as we move through Q4 and into 2026 that the market is strong and ready for us to continue in that space.
如同前面所提到的,這主要由基礎設施項目、晶片工廠、倉庫和資料中心推動。而我們下游業務的持續成長,如紐柯鋼筋製造廠、Vulcraft 等,進一步增強了這種實力。因此,值得一提的是,在多年積壓訂單和延長交貨週期的支持下,我們在 2025 年全年實施並實現了商戶欄位價格的顯著上漲。因此,所有這些都讓我們有信心,在進入第四季度和 2026 年之際,市場依然強勁,並已做好準備,讓我們繼續在這個領域深耕。
Bradley Ford - Executive Vice President - Plate and Structural Products
Bradley Ford - Executive Vice President - Plate and Structural Products
Yes. And I'm happy to comment on the plate side. Plate market overall this year has been pretty good. ADC based on the last data we got is trending up around 15% year over year, and we're starting to see the impact to tariffs on imports, right? Imports were pretty -- were up a little bit in the beginning of the year, but have come down pretty significantly over the last couple of months.
是的。我很樂意對盤子這邊發表評論。今年餐盤市場整體表現相當不錯。根據我們最新獲得的數據,ADC年增約15%,我們開始看到這對進口關稅的影響,對吧?進口情況相當不錯——年初時略有上升,但在過去幾個月大幅下降。
Similar pockets of strength in plate that you heard from Randy and Leon and Steve around energy, both traditional and renewable, infrastructure. Our bridge business has been very strong this year and then on the non-res construction side. As we sit today, our backlog is 58% higher at the end of Q3 than we ended Q3 of last year. So we're pretty optimistic about where -- about where the plate market is going.
蘭迪、里昂和史蒂夫在能源(包括傳統能源和再生能源)基礎設施方面都提到了類似的優勢領域。今年我們的橋樑業務以及非住宅建築業務都非常強勁。截至目前,我們第三季末的積壓訂單比去年第三季末增加了 58%。所以我們對餐盤市場的未來走向相當樂觀。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Brad, why don't you touch on just the military applications and great development at Brandenburg as well?
布拉德,為什麼不也談談勃蘭登堡的軍事應用和卓越發展呢?
Bradley Ford - Executive Vice President - Plate and Structural Products
Bradley Ford - Executive Vice President - Plate and Structural Products
Yes, quick Brandenburg update, team continues to make significant progress at the mill. We announced last quarter that we achieved EBITDA positive results. We achieved that again in Q3. I'd mentioned some weekly or monthly records from last quarter, but honestly, the team has already shattered his records so far here into Q4.
是的,勃蘭登堡工廠的最新進展,團隊在工廠建設方面繼續取得重大進展。我們上個季度宣布實現了 EBITDA 為正的業績。我們在第三季再次實現了這個目標。我之前提到過上個季度的一些週或月記錄,但說實話,到目前為止,球隊在第四季度已經打破了他的記錄。
And then on the product development side, we've had some pretty notable achievements, one being X70 API grade for line pipe. We've achieved qualifications and certifications there and captured a very large order for Q4 and into Q1. And then on the military side, we're really encouraged by the early-stage military armour trials. Nucor's product breadth in place between our 3 plate mills, really is going to allow us to become the premier plate supplier in the US military.
在產品開發方面,我們也取得了一些非常顯著的成就,其中之一就是管線管材的 X70 API 等級。我們已在那裡獲得了資格和認證,並獲得了第四季度和第一季的大訂單。在軍事方面,我們對早期軍事裝甲試驗感到非常鼓舞。紐柯旗下三家鋼板廠的產品線豐富,這將使我們成為美國軍方首屈一指的鋼板供應商。
And then finally, Brandenburg's capabilities, I know we've mentioned on prior calls that we're seeing opportunities with existing customers, and we're really seeing that play out. The capabilities of Brandenburg are allowing us to sell deeper with our current customer base, and we're seeing that in our total plate volumes where we've shipped nearly as much plate through the first 3 quarters this year as we did for all of last year.
最後,關於勃蘭登堡的能力,我知道我們在之前的電話會議中提到過,我們看到了與現有客戶合作的機會,而且我們確實看到了這些機會的實現。勃蘭登堡的生產能力使我們能夠更深入地向現有客戶群銷售產品,這一點從我們的鋼板總銷量中可見一斑,今年前三個季度我們的鋼板出貨量幾乎與去年全年的出貨量一樣多。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
That covers the question Andrew.
安德魯,你的問題解決了。
Andrew Jones - Equity Analyst
Andrew Jones - Equity Analyst
Just one follow-up on the military side. Curious whether export markets like, obviously, Europe with sort of potential doubling tripling of defense spending. Is that a market you're focused on, given, I guess, with these higher-quality grades as more global market than the US what? Is that a target for Nucor?
軍方方面還有一點後續問題。很好奇像歐洲這樣的出口市場,國防開支是否有可能翻倍甚至兩番。鑑於這些更高品質的產品等級面向全球市場,而不僅僅是美國市場,那麼您是否將目光投向了那個市場?這是紐柯公司的收購目標嗎?
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yes. Thanks for the question. Certainly, it's an opportunity. Again, Brandenburg's capability set is unique in the world market. There's only so few folks that can produce the qualities and size ranges engages that Brandenburg can.
是的。謝謝你的提問。這當然是一個機會。再次強調,勃蘭登堡的能力組合在世界市場上是獨一無二的。能夠像勃蘭登堡那樣生產出品質和尺寸範圍都如此之大的產品的人寥寥無幾。
So defense spending increases not just here in the US, but across the world. We're well positioned to take advantage of that.
因此,不僅美國,而且全世界的國防開支都在增加。我們已做好充分準備,可以利用這一點。
Operator
Operator
Tristan Gresser, BNP Paribas.
Tristan Gresser,法國巴黎銀行。
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
The first one is just on your prepared remarks, you mentioned stable demand outlook for next year. But in your presentation, it seems you have a lot of structural tailwinds, especially on resi and infra. So I'm just trying to understand what could be the pockets of weakness next year that would offset that growth? And that stable demand outlook. If you could split that between longs and flats that would be helpful as well.
第一個問題是關於您事先準備好的發言稿,您提到明年的需求前景穩定。但從你的演講來看,你似乎有很多結構性利多因素,尤其是在住宅和基礎設施方面。所以我想了解一下,明年可能有哪些弱點會抵銷這種成長?以及穩定的需求前景。如果你能把這些錢分成長款和平款,那就更好了。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Tristan, look, I'll touch on a couple of things that we expect to be, I guess, relatively tepid next year, but it is factored into our comments about next year being stable, and it could be up a couple of percent. But again, it's factored in with some softer markets like heavy equipment and ag, right? We don't see that coming back. We think the tariff impact of that has gotten into those heavy equipment suppliers in agriculture. We think residential construction is, again, probably not going to be great.
是的,特里斯坦,聽著,我會談到一些我們預計明年會比較平淡的事情,但這已經考慮到了我們對明年經濟穩定的預期,而且明年經濟可能會增長幾個百分點。但同樣,這也與重型設備和農業等一些較為疲軟的市場因素有關,對吧?我們認為這種情況不會再出現了。我們認為關稅的影響已經波及到農業領域的重型設備供應商。我們認為住宅建設的前景可能再次不容樂觀。
Interest rates will certainly help that, and we'll see what the Fed does over the next 70 or 80 days as we finish out 2025. And then auto is probably another one that's not a huge market for us today, again, about 5% or 6%. But one that we think we can continue to grow in because, again, we're increasing our capability sets. But again, I think those are probably 3 areas that we see either flat or down into '26.
利率肯定會對此有所幫助,我們將看看聯準會在2025年結束前的70到80天內會採取什麼行動。然後,汽車產業可能是我們目前市佔率不大的產業之一,約佔 5% 或 6%。但我們認為我們可以繼續在這個領域發展,因為我們正在不斷提高我們的能力。但我認為,到 2026 年,這三個領域可能要么保持平穩,要么會下降。
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
All right. That's clear. And maybe just following up on that. I mean consensus has external shipments for the steel mills, I think, below 21 million tons for next year. Obviously, you have all those growth projects coming online and ramping up at different paces.
好的。這很清楚。或許只是想就此做些後續說明。我的意思是,普遍認為明年鋼鐵廠的外部出貨量將低於 2,100 萬噸。顯然,所有這些成長項目都在陸續上線,並以不同的速度推進。
So could you help us understand where the bit of the moving pieces into volumes for next year? And what sort of utilization rates for the new project do you expect? And do you see consensus is conservative or pretty well calibrated at this point?
那麼,您能否幫助我們了解明年銷售中哪些部分會改變?您預計新專案的使用率會是多少?您認為目前的共識是保守的還是相當精確的?
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, okay. Look, I appreciate the question and we'll be careful on how much detail we get into for obvious reasons, Tristan. But look, I'm an incredibly optimistic guy. We're sitting on the eighth safest year in the history of Nucor. We've returned $1 billion through the first 9 months of the year.
嗯,好的。聽著,我很感謝你的提問,出於顯而易見的原因,我們會謹慎處理細節。特里斯坦。但是,我是一個非常樂觀的人。我們正經歷紐柯公司史上第八個最安全的年份。今年前9個月,我們已經返還了10億美元。
We're ramping up two of our products today that we expect in Lexington with Carolina and Kingman, Arizona that we expect to be profitable in Q1 of '26. We've been upgraded by Moody's to A3. We started up the first of three Towers & Structures facility in Alabama, the other two next year. Continue to grow our capabilities and now make 95% of the data centers that steel that's in data centers that's required, starting up Crawfordsville galvanizing line and Berkeleys galvanizing line, culminating in West Virginia startup next year. The tsunami of earnings power that's going to be brought to Newport's balance sheet is significant.
今天,我們將加強生產兩款產品,預計在萊剋星頓、卡羅萊納州和亞利桑那州金曼,這兩款產品將在 2026 年第一季實現盈利。我們的信用評等被穆迪上調至A3。我們在阿拉巴馬州啟動了三座塔架和結構設施中的第一座,另外兩座則在明年啟動。我們將繼續提升自身能力,目前已生產資料中心所需鋼材的 95%,並啟動了克勞福茲維爾鍍鋅生產線和伯克利鍍鋅生產線,最終目標是明年在西維吉尼亞州啟動生產線。即將為紐波特資產負債表帶來的巨大獲利能力是巨大的。
And so I couldn't be more optimistic about our future and do I think there's upside in our forecast. Absolutely. But look, there's other external factors that we all weighed. But again, the investments Nucor has made are for the long term. Not the quarter-to-quarter, that's the 10-, 12-, 15-, 20-year cycles. And again, I think we are as well positioned today as we have ever been in our history.
因此,我對我們的未來充滿信心,我認為我們的預測還有上升空間。絕對地。但是,我們也考慮了其他一些外在因素。但再次強調,紐柯的投資都是著眼於長遠的。不是季度之間的周期,而是 10 年、12 年、15 年、20 年的周期。而且,我認為我們今天所處的地位是我們歷史上最好的。
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
All right, all right. No, that's fair. And maybe just a last one on steel products. Is it fair to expect higher ASP into 2026, have you've seen rebar prices going up?
好吧,好吧。不,這很公平。或許最後再補充一點關於鋼鐵產品的內容。預期2026年平均售價會上漲嗎?你看到鋼筋價格上漲了嗎?
And joists and deck, you mentioned good momentum. And if you could also, I think, expand beyond we're supposed to do $450 million of EBITDA for this year? Do you think it's achievable? And lastly, if you could just remind us the timing and EBITDA contribution of the two new tower projects that would be also really helpful.
你提到了托樑和甲板,說它們能帶來良好的動勢。如果可以的話,我想,能否把今年的 EBITDA 目標擴大到 4.5 億美元以上?你認為這能實現嗎?最後,如果您能提醒我們這兩個新塔樓項目的進度安排和 EBITDA 貢獻,那就太好了。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I'll start with the last. And if I forget the first, either, Steve can help me remember. But -- or you can, Tristan. If we start with the last question you asked about the other 2 towers facilities. Indiana is expected to be up and running midyear of next year and the Utah facility should be end of '26.
是的,我先從最後一個開始。如果我連第一個都忘了,史蒂夫可以幫我回憶起來。但是——或者你可以,特里斯坦。讓我們從您提出的關於另外兩座塔樓設施的最後一個問題開始。預計印第安納州工廠將於明年年中投入運營,猶他州工廠將於 2026 年底投入營運。
So again, by the end of next year, we will rival some of the largest players in that space where the capability set that is truly differentiated, Tristan. It's -- these facilities that are being built aren't -- they're fully automated. They are using the latest technologies that you can imagine that are making these -- the design window for those from a cost and technology standpoint, incredibly advantageous. The product segment though, is also another area, and I'll let John comment here a little bit, but it's another area for us that we are incredibly optimistic about. If you think about the last 3, 4, 5 years of the products group, they have generated somewhere between 30% and 40% of Nucor's overall net earnings.
所以,到明年年底,我們將憑藉真正差異化的能力,與該領域的一些最大參與者競爭,Tristan。這些正在建造的設施並非——它們是完全自動化的。他們運用了你能想像的最新技術來製造這些產品——從成本和技術角度來看,這些產品的設計窗口具有極大的優勢。不過,產品領域也是另一個方面,我讓約翰在這裡簡單評論一下,但我們對這個領域也抱持著極大的樂觀態度。如果回顧過去 3、4、5 年的產品部門,它們貢獻了 Nucor 總淨利的 30% 到 40%。
We have seen in the cyclical market that we're in as a steel company. The products group has reached a new high, and we've seen the low and we're already climbing out. Our backlogs are up 25% to 30% year-over-year. We're seeing pricing stabilized and moving up in most of the segments within that group. And so again, do I think there's a lot of upside as we head into the new year and some tailwinds that could make that better? Yes, I absolutely believe that's to be the case.
我們已經看到,作為一家鋼鐵公司,我們所處的市場處於週期性波動之中。產品組已經達到了新的高峰,我們已經經歷了低谷,並且正在走出低谷。我們的積壓訂單比去年同期增加了 25% 至 30%。我們看到該群體中大多數細分市場的價格趨於穩定並且上漲。所以,我是否認為在新的一年裡有很多上漲空間,並且有一些順風因素可以讓情況變得更好?是的,我完全相信情況就是這樣。
John Hollatz - Executive Vice President - Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
John Hollatz - Executive Vice President - Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products
Yes. Tristan, this is John. On the pricing side, look, the market is going to dictate what pricing is, but the one that we always get the question around is joist and deck pricing. And as we mentioned last quarter, we're expecting the trend and this is coming to a reality where our order entry is on joist and deck is matching our backlog pricing. That's been the case for about the last nine months.
是的。特里斯坦,這位是約翰。價格方面,市場會決定價格,但我們常被問到的問題是托樑和甲板的價格。正如我們在上個季度所提到的,我們預計這一趨勢將會出現,而且這種情況正在成為現實,即我們的訂單輸入量與托樑和甲板的價格相匹配,這與我們的積壓訂單定價相符。這種情況已經持續了大約九個月。
We're seeing a lot of stability there. And just echoing what Leon said, this -- the margins and the profits produced by these businesses are much stronger than what they were pre-pandemic, which is important for our downstream performance.
我們看到那裡的局勢非常穩定。正如 Leon 所說,這些企業的利潤率和獲利能力比疫情前要強得多,這對我們的下游業績至關重要。
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Analyst
All right. And just on the $450 million EBITDA target for Expand Beyond?
好的。Expand Beyond 的 EBITDA 目標為 4.5 億美元,那麼它能達到這個目標嗎?
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Stephen Laxton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yes. Tristan, thanks for that question. Expand is doing fine. It's hitting its clip, and it's a mixed bag of things as Leon was highlighting some of the progress we're making in towers. Keep in mind that's a bit of a build out, a greenfield build-out.
是的。特里斯坦,謝謝你的提問。Expand功能運作正常。它正處於最佳狀態,而且情況喜憂參半,正如萊昂所強調的,我們在塔樓方面取得了一些進展。請記住,這是一個大建設項目,一個全新的建設項目。
So we still would point people to our long-term run rate of $700 million as a target, and we're not going to back off of that.
所以我們還是會把7億美元的長期目標當作目標,我們不會放棄這個目標。
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much. We currently have no further questions. So I just like to hand back to Leon Topalian for any further remarks.
非常感謝。我們目前沒有其他問題。所以,我只想把發言權交還給萊昂·托帕利安,請他再補充一些內容。
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Leon Topalian - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you for joining us for today's call and for your questions. Nucor is continuing to execute on our strategy to grow our core steelmaking capabilities while expanding into downstream steel adjacent businesses. I'd like to thank our team for delivering solid financial performance and for your unwavering commitment to become the world's safest steel company. Thank you to our customers for allowing us to serve you and to our shareholders for investing your valuable capital with us. Have a great day.
感謝您參加今天的電話會議並提出問題。紐柯公司將繼續執行我們的策略,在發展核心煉鋼能力的同時,拓展下游鋼鐵相關業務。我要感謝我們的團隊取得了穩健的財務業績,並感謝你們為成為世界上最安全的鋼鐵公司所做出的堅定不移的承諾。感謝各位顧客允許我們為您服務,也感謝各位股東將寶貴的資金投資於我們。祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
As we conclude today's call, we'd like to thank everyone for joining. You may disconnect your lines.
在今天的電話會議即將結束之際,我們衷心感謝各位的參與。您可以斷開線路。