北美最大的鋼鐵生產商紐柯公司公佈了 2023 年強勁的財務業績,第四季度每股收益為 3.16 美元,全年每股收益為 18 美元。該公司已投資資本支出並向股東返還資金。
紐柯專注於發展其核心業務、優先考慮安全並拓展新市場。該公司的目標是到2050年實現淨零煉鋼,並正在策略性地將其產品結構轉向利潤率更高的增值產品。
紐柯公司對鋼鐵密集型市場的長期前景保持樂觀,並計劃未來持續成長。該公司在下游產品團隊中取得了成功,並正在朝著實現正常化 EBITDA 的目標邁進。
紐柯高層討論了各種項目以及他們對規範成長和資本配置的承諾。他們對板材市場持謹慎態度,但對其他產業表示樂觀。
紐柯公司致力於透過各種策略降低資本密集度並改善營運。該公司計劃留在北美進行投資,並對螺紋鋼市場的未來需求持樂觀態度。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Nucor 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Sullivan, General Manager and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
美好的一天,歡迎參加紐柯 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)。請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給總經理兼投資者關係傑克·沙利文 (Jack Sullivan)。請繼續。
Jack Sullivan - General Manager of IR
Jack Sullivan - General Manager of IR
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2023 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor's executive team with us, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Brad Ford over fabricated construction products; Noah Hanners, Raw Materials; John Hollatz, Bar and Rebar Fabrication; Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy; Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability and General Counsel; Dan Needham, Commercial, Rex Query, Sheet and Talent Resources; and Chad Utermark, New Markets and innovation.
謝謝大家,大家早安。歡迎閱讀紐柯公司 2023 年第四季和年底的獲利回顧和業務更新。今天主持我們電話會議的是董事長、總裁兼執行長 Leon Topalian 以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Steve Laxton。我們還有紐柯執行團隊的其他成員,包括營運長戴夫‧蘇莫斯基 (Dave Sumoski); Al Behr,負責板材和結構產品;布拉德福特 (Brad Ford) 過度加工建築產品;諾亞·漢納斯,原料; John Hollatz,鋼筋和鋼筋製造;道格·傑里森,企業策略; Greg Murphy,商業服務、永續發展和總法律顧問; Dan Needham,商業、Rex 查詢、表格和人才資源;和 Chad Utermark,新市場與創新。
We've posted our fourth quarter earnings release and presentation to the Nucor Investor Relations website. We encourage you to access these materials as we will cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws.
我們已在紐柯投資者關係網站上發布了第四季度收益報告和簡報。我們鼓勵您存取這些資料,因為我們將在通話期間介紹其中的部分內容。今天的討論將包括使用非公認會計準則財務指標和證券法含義內的前瞻性資訊。
Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our safe harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明不同,並涉及我們的安全港聲明中概述和紐柯向 SEC 文件中披露的風險。今天簡報的附錄包括補充資訊和揭露,以及非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。
So with that, let's turn the call over to Leon.
那麼,讓我們把電話轉給 Leon。
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Thanks, Jack, and welcome, everyone. I'd like to begin by congratulating our 32,000 Nucor teammates for delivering another strong year of financial results. We closed out 2023 with solid performance, earning $3.16 per share in the fourth quarter on our way to $18 per share for the full year. This represents the third most profitable year in Nucor's history behind 2022 and 2021.
謝謝,傑克,歡迎大家。首先,我要祝賀我們的 32,000 名紐柯員工在今年又取得了強勁的財務表現。我們以穩健的業績結束了 2023 年,第四季每股收益為 3.16 美元,全年每股收益為 18 美元。這是紐柯公司歷史上第三個獲利最多的年份,僅次於 2022 年和 2021 年。
In fact, Nucor's combined net earnings over the past three years exceeds the combined net earnings of the last 20 years. This is a testament to the focus and dedication of our team as we execute our strategy to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture.
事實上,紐柯公司過去三年的淨利合計超過了過去20年的淨利合計。這證明了我們團隊在執行發展核心、擴展和實踐我們文化的策略時的專注和奉獻精神。
In keeping with our commitment to shareholders and our balanced approach toward capital allocation, Nucor invested $2.2 billion in CapEx and returned $2.1 billion to shareholders in 2023, representing 46% of our net earnings. We are coming off the 3 best years in Nucor's history, but in spite of that, we're even more excited about what lies ahead. The U.S. economy continues to be resilient and steel-intensive megatrends are starting to drive increased demand for the products we make and our focus on expand beyond businesses downstream are generating excellent returns.
為了履行我們對股東的承諾和平衡的資本配置方法,紐柯公司在資本支出上投資了 22 億美元,並於 2023 年向股東返還 21 億美元,占我們淨利潤的 46%。我們即將迎來紐柯公司史上最好的三年,但儘管如此,我們對未來的發展更加興奮。美國經濟持續保持彈性,鋼鐵密集型大趨勢開始推動對我們生產的產品的需求增加,我們對下游業務以外的擴張的關注正在產生優異的回報。
Turning to our safety performance, 2023 statistically was the safest year in Nucor's history making five straight years of improvement. We also had 29 divisions going the entire year without a recordable injury. We finished the year with a company-wide injury and illness rate of 0.79, which is 17% lower than 2022 and well below the steel industry average. However, with that said, Nucor will not internally acknowledge 2023 as a record year in safety. We'll not celebrate 2023 as a record year because on November 3, we lost a Nucor team member to a workplace accident.
談到我們的安全績效,根據統計,2023 年是紐柯歷史上最安全的一年,連續五年取得進步。我們還有 29 個部門全年沒有發生可記錄的傷病。全年全公司工傷盛行率為 0.79,比 2022 年下降 17%,遠低於鋼鐵業平均值。然而,話雖如此,紐柯公司內部不會承認 2023 年是安全創紀錄的一年。我們不會慶祝 2023 年創紀錄的一年,因為 11 月 3 日,我們在工作場所事故中失去了一名紐柯團隊成員。
Subsequently, on November 9, we had a company-wide safety stand-down. It was a chance to honor our fallen team member and his family, reflect on our most important value, safety and reinforce that the health, safety and well-being of every Nucor team member is what matters most. Our team members come to work each and every day to support themselves, their loved ones and they must go home each and every day. That is our greatest responsibility to all 32,000 team members who make up our Nucor family. Every leader inside of Nucor is committed to delivering our mission to become the world's safest steel company, and there is no doubt in my mind, we will achieve our goals together.
隨後,11 月 9 日,我們進行了全公司範圍的安全停工。這是一個向我們陣亡的團隊成員及其家人致敬的機會,反思我們最重要的價值和安全,並強調每個紐柯團隊成員的健康、安全和福祉是最重要的。我們的團隊成員每天都來工作,養活自己和親人,但他們每天都必須回家。這是我們對紐柯大家庭所有 32,000 名團隊成員的最大責任。紐柯公司內部的每位領導者都致力於實現我們成為世界上最安全的鋼鐵公司的使命,毫無疑問,我們將共同實現我們的目標。
Nucor is the largest and most diversified steel producer in North America. We pioneered the commercial application of EAF steelmaking over 50 years ago, and today, we own and operate 30 electric arc furnaces with 4 more under construction. EAF steelmaking and our unique entrepreneurial culture have made us the industry leader and our current strategy, we'll keep Nucor out in front as we continue to deliver the financial results and capabilities our investors and customers have come to expect. Today, Nucor leads the North American steel industry across financial, operational and environmental criteria.
紐柯鋼鐵公司是北美最大、最多元化的鋼鐵生產商。 50 多年前,我們率先實現了電爐煉鋼的商業應用,如今,我們擁有並經營 30 座電弧爐,還有 4 座正在建設中。電弧爐煉鋼和我們獨特的創業文化使我們成為行業領導者,我們目前的策略是,我們將讓紐柯公司保持領先地位,繼續提供投資者和客戶所期望的財務表現和能力。如今,紐柯鋼鐵公司在財務、營運和環境標準方面處於北美鋼鐵業的領先地位。
Value creation for shareholders through prudent capital deployment is our primary financial objective. Since the beginning of 2020, we have invested over $12 billion in CapEx and strategic acquisitions to grow our core and expand beyond. During the same time, our average annual ROE has exceeded 30% and our annualized EPS growth rate has exceeded 40%. In terms of operation, Nucor makes approximately one out of every 4 tons of steel produced in the United States. We have a highly efficient business model and our unrivaled breadth of products and capabilities serve the widest range of end markets.
透過審慎的資本配置為股東創造價值是我們的首要財務目標。自 2020 年初以來,我們已在資本支出和策略收購方面投資了超過 120 億美元,以發展我們的核心業務並擴展。同時,我們的年均ROE超過30%,年化EPS成長率超過40%。就營運而言,美國每生產 4 噸鋼鐵,大約就有 1 噸由紐柯鋼鐵生產。我們擁有高效率的商業模式,我們無與倫比的產品廣度和能力服務於最廣泛的終端市場。
Sustainability is a key differentiator for Nucor and a major part of our growth strategy. We are the largest recycler in the Western Hemisphere and among the lowest in greenhouse gas intensity across global steelmaking. And we're taking steps to position us even better for the future. Supplying customers with the sustainable solutions they've come to expect. That's why we helped create the Global Steel Climate Council and announced a commitment towards net zero steelmaking by 2050 across Scopes 1, 2 and 3.
永續發展是紐柯公司的關鍵差異化因素,也是我們成長策略的重要組成部分。我們是西半球最大的回收商,也是全球煉鋼業溫室氣體強度最低的企業之一。我們正在採取措施,為未來做更好的準備。為客戶提供他們期望的可持續解決方案。因此,我們協助創建了全球鋼鐵氣候理事會,並宣布承諾到 2050 年在範圍 1、2 和 3 領域實現淨零煉鋼。
Our business strategy and investments are driving growth for shareholders. In raw materials, we are leveraging our market intelligence and flexible supply chain to provide more sustainable inputs. We're investing in advanced scrap separation technologies and near zero emission iron-making and we've partnered with ExxonMobil to capture and store up to 800,000 tons of CO2 per year at our Louisiana DRI facility beginning in 2026.
我們的業務策略和投資正在推動股東的成長。在原材料方面,我們利用我們的市場情報和靈活的供應鏈來提供更永續的投入。我們正在投資先進的廢棄物分離技術和近乎零排放的煉鐵技術,並與埃克森美孚合作,從 2026 年開始,我們的路易斯安那州 DRI 工廠每年捕集和封存高達 80 萬噸二氧化碳。
In our steel mills segment, we are shifting the mix towards higher-margin value-added products. We continue to ramp up Brandenburg, the most capable EAF plate mill in the world. We're constructing a state-of-the-art sheet mill in West Virginia, and we're expanding our rebar micro mill footprint, targeting some of the highest growth regions in the U.S.
在我們的鋼廠部門,我們正在將產品組合轉向利潤率更高的加值產品。我們繼續加強勃蘭登堡工廠的建設,這是世界上能力最強的電弧爐中厚板軋機。我們正在西維吉尼亞州建造一家最先進的板材廠,並且正在擴大我們的螺紋鋼微型軋機足跡,目標是美國一些成長最快的地區。
Turning to steel products, we have a strategic advantage on the supply side, given the integration between our mills and steel product teams. We'll continue to leverage this advantage while pursuing more cross-selling and companion tons through our solutions teams and we're investing in automation and technology to improve efficiency and reduce the risk of injuries.
談到鋼鐵產品,我們在供應方面具有戰略優勢,因為我們的鋼廠和鋼鐵產品團隊之間的整合。我們將繼續利用這一優勢,同時透過我們的解決方案團隊尋求更多的交叉銷售和合作夥伴,並且我們正在投資自動化和技術,以提高效率並降低受傷風險。
And finally, our Expand Beyond strategy into its steel adjacent platforms is paying off. We are leveraging our core competencies to grow into higher-margin businesses aligned with steel-intensive megatrends. We're executing this strategy through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth, including the construction of 2 new utility structure production facilities.
最後,我們向其鋼鐵相鄰平台擴展的策略正在取得回報。我們正在利用我們的核心競爭力,發展成為符合鋼鐵密集型大趨勢的更高利潤的業務。我們透過收購和有機成長相結合的方式執行此策略,包括建造 2 個新的公用設施生產設施。
For 2023, our Expand Beyond platforms contributed roughly $415 million in EBITDA, led by overhead doors and insulated metal panels. We remain confident in hitting our $700 million EBITDA run rate goal for Expand Beyond divisions in the coming years.
2023 年,我們的 Expand Beyond 平台貢獻了約 4.15 億美元的 EBITDA,其中以高架門和絕緣金屬板為首。我們仍有信心在未來幾年內實現 Expand Beyond 部門 7 億美元的 EBITDA 營運率目標。
We believe the American steel industry is still on the front end of megatrends working their way into steel markets. We're starting to see some increased activity in certain markets like bridge and highway, semiconductor chip plants, EV factories and renewable energy. And as we've shared before, Nucor expects the federal programs that support these megatrends to add somewhere between 5 million to 8 million tons of incremental annual demand for steel over the next several years. While the long-term trends look favorable, we've seen some pockets of slower-than-expected activity. For instance, adoption rates for electric vehicles are tracking lower than some have predicted and several offshore wind projects have been canceled or delayed due to supply chain challenges as well as higher costs. Warehouse starts are expected to decline again in 2024, but we still expect them to stay above pre-pandemic levels. And despite some of these near-term headwinds, Nucor remains optimistic about the longer-term prospects for these end markets.
我們相信,美國鋼鐵業仍處於進入鋼鐵市場的大趨勢的前沿。我們開始看到橋樑和高速公路、半導體晶片工廠、電動汽車工廠和再生能源等某些市場的活動增加。正如我們之前分享的那樣,紐柯預計支持這些大趨勢的聯邦計劃將在未來幾年內每年增加 500 萬至 800 萬噸的鋼鐵需求。雖然長期趨勢看起來有利,但我們看到一些活動慢於預期。例如,電動車的採用率低於一些人的預測,而且由於供應鏈挑戰和成本上升,多個離岸風電專案已被取消或推遲。預計 2024 年倉庫開工量將再次下降,但我們仍預計將保持在疫情前的水平以上。儘管存在一些短期阻力,紐柯公司仍然對這些終端市場的長期前景持樂觀態度。
Non-res construction is our largest end market, and it has proven to be incredibly resilient. Some of the strongest growth is coming from the sharp rise in advanced manufacturing and infrastructure investment, both expected to rise double digits over the next 2 years according to Dodge construction forecast. This is helping to offset some of the softness we're seeing for more rate sensitive sectors, which should begin to pick up later in the year if interest rate cuts occur as many expect.
非再生能源建築是我們最大的終端市場,事實證明它具有令人難以置信的彈性。其中最強勁的成長來自先進製造業和基礎設施投資的急劇成長,根據道奇建築預測,這兩項投資預計在未來兩年內將成長兩位數。這有助於抵消我們所看到的對利率敏感的行業的一些疲軟,如果降息如許多人預期的那樣,這些行業應該會在今年晚些時候開始回升。
Before turning it over to Steve, I'd like to share a few thoughts on how Nucor's business model continues to deliver attractive returns for our shareholders. From 2020 to 2023, we've generated a combined EBITDA over $30 billion, net earnings of nearly $20 billion and returned nearly $10 billion to our shareholders. Throughout it all, we've maintained the strongest balance sheet of any North American steel producer, allowing us to grow the company by investing in higher-margin less-volatile businesses. As our results demonstrate, Nucor is a growth company and given our investment plans and the long-term outlook for steel in the U.S., we see more opportunities for growth in the years ahead.
在將其交給史蒂夫之前,我想分享一些關於紐柯的商業模式如何繼續為我們的股東帶來有吸引力的回報的想法。從 2020 年到 2023 年,我們的 EBITDA 總額超過 300 億美元,淨利潤近 200 億美元,並向股東返還近 100 億美元。自始至終,我們都保持著北美鋼鐵生產商中最強勁的資產負債表,使我們能夠透過投資利潤率更高、波動性較小的業務來發展公司。正如我們的結果所表明的那樣,紐柯是一家成長型公司,考慮到我們的投資計劃和美國鋼鐵的長期前景,我們看到未來幾年有更多的成長機會。
With that, I'll turn it over to Steve, who will share additional details on our financial results and near-term outlook. Steve?
接下來,我將其轉交給史蒂夫,他將分享有關我們的財務表現和近期前景的更多詳細資訊。史蒂夫?
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Thank you, Leon and thanks to our shareholders for joining us this morning. Nucor ended 2023 on a strong note with fourth quarter consolidated net earnings of $785 million, including $127 million of pre-operating start-up costs. We exceeded the midpoint of our guidance due primarily to better-than-expected performance from our steel mills segment in the month of December.
謝謝萊昂,也感謝我們的股東今天早上加入我們。紐柯公司 2023 年業績強勁,第四季綜合淨利為 7.85 億美元,其中包括 1.27 億美元的營運前啟動成本。我們超越了指導的中點,主要是由於我們的鋼廠部門 12 月的表現優於預期。
In addition to solid earnings for the quarter, the power of Nucor's business model allowed us to generate more than $1.5 billion of operating cash flow during the quarter, with working capital contributing about $250 million of that total.
除了本季穩定的獲利外,紐柯公司商業模式的力量使我們在本季產生了超過 15 億美元的營運現金流,其中營運資金貢獻了約 2.5 億美元。
Turning to our operating segment results, our Steel Mills Group generated $588 million of pretax earnings in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 33% from the third quarter. Total steel mill shipments declined 4% from the prior quarter, and realized pricing for the segment was lower across all major products. Our mill utilization rate was 74%, down from 77% in the prior quarter, but higher than the 70% in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the back half of the fourth quarter, we saw an uptick in customer confidence as the UAW strikes were resolved and the Federal Reserve signaled the end to interest rate hikes.
轉向我們的營運部門業績,我們的鋼廠集團第四季實現稅前收益 5.88 億美元,比第三季下降 33%。鋼廠總出貨量較上一季下降 4%,所有主要產品的該細分市場的定價均較低。我們的工廠利用率為74%,低於上一季的77%,但高於2022 年第四季的70%。第四季後半段,隨著UAW 的罷工,我們看到客戶信心有所上升問題得到解決,聯準會發出結束升息的訊號。
Shipment volumes increased as the quarter progressed and we began to realize higher pricing for sheet steel consistent with pricing trends in the published indices. We're expecting further improvements in both shipments and realized pricing to favorably impact results in the first quarter of 2024.
隨著本季的進展,出貨量增加,我們開始實現與已發布指數的定價趨勢一致的鋼板定價上漲。我們預計出貨量和實現定價的進一步改善將對 2024 年第一季的業績產生有利影響。
Our Steel Products segment delivered another strong quarter with pretax earnings of $656 million. This represented just over half the total segment earnings for the fourth quarter and is the sixth consecutive quarter with steel products contributed at least 40% of our total segment earnings. For the year, Steel Products generated segment earnings of $3.4 billion, its second best year behind 2022. Realized pricing and margins continued to moderate in the fourth quarter, but on an earnings per ton basis for the full year of 2023 only gave up about 6 percentage points.
我們的鋼鐵產品部門再次實現強勁的季度業績,稅前收益達 6.56 億美元。這佔第四季度部門總收益的一半以上,並且是連續第六個季度鋼鐵產品貢獻了我們部門總收益的至少 40%。今年,鋼鐵產品部門的利潤為34 億美元,是繼2022 年之後第二好的一年。第四季度實現定價和利潤率繼續放緩,但按2023 年全年每噸收益計算,僅下降了約6%。百分點。
Our raw materials segment posted a pretax loss of about $14 million for the quarter. Compared to the prior quarter, pricing is relatively stable, but output was lower and per ton cost rose due to planned outages at our DRI facilities.
我們的原物料部門本季稅前虧損約 1,400 萬美元。與上一季相比,價格相對穩定,但由於我們的 DRI 設施計劃停運,產量下降,每噸成本上升。
Now turning to capital allocation with $2.2 billion in capital spending and $2.1 billion in shareholder returns in 2023, Nucor once again, demonstrated a measured and balanced approach to its capital deployment. With respect to our shareholder returns, it's worth noting that next week, we'll pay our 203rd consecutive quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.54 per share. This represents a 6% increase over the prior dividend.
現在轉向資本配置,到 2023 年,紐柯鋼鐵將實現 22 億美元的資本支出和 21 億美元的股東回報,再次展示了其資本配置的審慎和平衡方法。關於我們的股東回報,值得注意的是,下週我們將連續第 203 個季度支付每股 0.54 美元的季度現金股息。這比之前的股息增加了 6%。
As Leon highlighted, Nucor is taking meaningful steps to grow its earnings power and cash flow potential. Since 2018, we've been able to increase our dividend by 42% and reduced our shares outstanding by 23%. For the foreseeable future, we remain confident we'll continue to be able to return at least 40% of our net earnings to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases. A cornerstone of our capital allocation framework is a commitment to a strong investment-grade credit rating and liquidity that enables our strategy.
正如萊昂所強調的那樣,紐柯鋼鐵正在採取有意義的措施來增強其獲利能力和現金流潛力。自 2018 年以來,我們已將股利增加了 42%,並將流通股減少了 23%。在可預見的未來,我們仍然有信心繼續能夠透過股利和股票回購的方式將至少 40% 的淨利潤返還給股東。我們資本配置架構的基石是對強大的投資等級信用評級和流動性的承諾,以實現我們的策略。
Nucor's balance sheet remains well positioned to enable continued execution of our balanced capital allocation philosophy with a debt-to-capital ratio of 25% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 1%. We have a long history of putting capital to use and returning capital to shareholders. Given that principle, and our ambitious growth plans, we do expect to end 2024 with a lower cash balance than when we started the year.
紐柯公司的資產負債表仍處於有利位置,能夠繼續執行我們的平衡資本配置概念,負債與資本比率為 25%,負債與 EBITDA 比率低於 1%。我們在利用資本和向股東返還資本方面有著悠久的歷史。鑑於這項原則以及我們雄心勃勃的成長計劃,我們確實預計 2024 年末的現金餘額將低於年初。
We finished 2023 with a strong cash position for several reasons. First, with more than $7 billion of cash from operations, we generated robust cash flows throughout the year. Second, we experienced some timing delays in our planned capital spending. And finally, we were preserving liquidity for possible acquisition opportunities, which ultimately did not materialize.
基於多種原因,我們在 2023 年結束時擁有強勁的現金狀況。首先,我們擁有超過 70 億美元的營運現金,全年產生了強勁的現金流。其次,我們計劃的資本支出出現了一些時間延遲。最後,我們為可能的收購機會保留了流動性,但最終沒有實現。
Now that we've broken ground in West Virginia, the pace of our capital spending should accelerate. For 2024, we expect total capital expenditures of approximately $3.5 billion with our 7 largest growth projects represented approximately 2/3 of this total. In addition, we're firmly committed to growing our portfolio of solutions and expand beyond footprint through value-creating acquisitions. To that end, we are actively fostering a pipeline of acquisition candidates. As always, we will be selective, opportunistic and disciplined in our approach. But unlike our organic growth strategy, the timing and size of potential acquisitions is far less predictable.
既然我們已經在西維吉尼亞州破土動工,我們的資本支出步伐應該會加快。到 2024 年,我們預計總資本支出約為 35 億美元,其中 7 個最大的成長項目約佔總數的 2/3。此外,我們堅定地致力於擴大我們的解決方案組合,並透過創造價值的收購來擴大業務範圍。為此,我們正在積極培養收購候選人的管道。一如既往,我們的做法將是有選擇性的、機會主義的和嚴格的。但與我們的有機成長策略不同的是,潛在收購的時機和規模遠遠難以預測。
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, we expect consolidated earnings to be higher than the prior quarter with improved performance from the steel mills and raw materials segments, partially offset by weaker earnings from the steel products segment. For the steel mills segment, we expect quarterly earnings to increase due to higher realized pricing and higher volumes, in particular, from our sheet mills. In the steel products segment, we expect lower realized pricing compared with the prior quarter. Across most of our steel products groups, current backlogs are consistent with historic norms, while margins have remained higher than historic averages. For the raw materials segment, we expect modest profitability on higher shipments and relatively stable pricing.
展望 2024 年第一季度,我們預期綜合收益將高於上一季度,鋼廠和原物料部門的業績有所改善,但部分被鋼鐵產品部門的收益疲軟所抵銷。對於鋼廠部門,我們預計季度收益將因實現定價上漲和產量增加(尤其是板材廠的產量增加)而增加。在鋼鐵產品領域,我們預計實現價格將低於上一季。在我們大多數鋼鐵產品集團中,目前的積壓訂單與歷史正常水平一致,而利潤率仍高於歷史平均水平。對於原物料領域,我們預期較高的出貨量和相對穩定的定價將帶來適度的獲利能力。
Looking ahead, 2024 appears to have a more stable outlook than may have been expected just a few months ago, with a reasonable probability of seeing the much discussed soft landing. As Leon mentioned in his opening remarks, the U.S. economy appears relatively healthy with inflation and unemployment metrics continuing to trend favorably. Market expectations for gradual declines in interest rates could result in more demand for consumer durables, light vehicles and increased activity across a broad construction sector.
展望未來,2024 年的前景似乎比幾個月前的預期更加穩定,很有可能出現備受討論的軟著陸。正如萊昂在開場白中提到的那樣,美國經濟似乎相對健康,通膨和失業指標繼續向好。市場對利率逐步下降的預期可能會導致對耐用消費品、輕型汽車的需求增加以及整個建築行業的活動增加。
As the most diversified producer of steel and steel products with the widest array of market solutions, these potential expectations bode well for Nucor. Looking beyond 2024, several steel-intensive megatrends are only in the early stages. While economic cycles will continue to impact the markets, we broadly see positive demand drivers that provide a constructive backdrop to Nucor's midterm growth potential. With that, we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator, if you would, please open the line for Q&A.
作為最多元化的鋼鐵和鋼鐵產品生產商,擁有最廣泛的市場解決方案,這些潛在預期對紐柯來說是個好兆頭。展望 2024 年後,一些鋼鐵密集型大趨勢僅處於早期階段。儘管經濟週期將繼續影響市場,但我們普遍認為積極的需求驅動因素為紐柯的中期成長潛力提供了建設性的背景。因此,我們很樂意回答您的問題。接線員,如果您願意,請開通問答線路。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Curt Woodworth with UBS.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Curt Woodworth。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Sorry to hear that you guys lost a team member in November, but overall, congratulations on what's been a pretty strong safety performance for the past several years. My first question is more end market related though in your slide deck, you did have a generally constructive outlook to use your words with regards to commercial construction as well as infrastructure. But when we look at the volume performance of the bar and beam mills and even plate to some degree, it's been pretty choppy to down for almost 2 years now. So I guess what gives you confidence that, that market can inflect? What signs are you seeing in terms of either increased bidding activity on the highway bridge side? Or how your order book is shaping up?
很遺憾得知你們在 11 月失去了一名團隊成員,但總的來說,恭喜你們在過去幾年中取得了相當出色的安全表現。我的第一個問題與終端市場更相關,儘管在您的幻燈片中,您確實對商業建築和基礎設施的言論具有普遍建設性的看法。但當我們觀察棒材和型材軋機,甚至板材的產量表現時,會發現近兩年來一直相當波動。所以我想是什麼讓你相信這個市場會改變?您在公路橋一側的投標活動增加方面看到了哪些跡象?或是您的訂單情況如何?
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, Curt, I'll kick it off, and if there's any other comments from team, I'll certainly let them jump in, and thank you for the condolences regarding our team member. As we've mentioned for decades now, the health, safety and well-being of our 32,000 Nucor team member family is the greatest responsibility we all bear each and every day. They are the ones that are delivering every result we're about to talk about. So again, thank you for acknowledging that.
是的,柯特,我會開始,如果團隊有任何其他評論,我當然會讓他們加入,並感謝您對我們團隊成員的慰問。正如我們幾十年來一直提到的那樣,我們 32,000 名紐柯團隊成員家庭的健康、安全和福祉是我們所有人每天承擔的最大責任。他們正在提供我們即將討論的每一個結果。再次感謝您的認可。
It's interesting. There's a lot of talk about new capacity, particularly in the sheet. And we get a lot of questions, Curt, as you know, around well, as we think about new market entrants or increased demand or that flattening of the cost curve change the profile and earnings. And what I would point to is what you really asked about the longs as we look at structural and while we don't break out the individual structural mill Nucor-Yamato or Berkeley being on the financial performance or the individual rebar mills. I would tell you the performance of our long products divisions has been incredible from a financial result. They are generating incredible returns for our company.
這真有趣。關於新產能的討論很多,尤其是在表格中。柯特,如你所知,當我們考慮新的市場進入者或需求的增加或成本曲線的平坦化會改變概況和收益時,我們會收到很多問題。我想指出的是,當我們考慮結構性時,您真正詢問的是多頭,雖然我們沒有詳細說明個別結構性鋼廠紐柯大和或伯克利的財務業績或個別螺紋鋼廠的情況。我想告訴您,從財務表現來看,我們的長材產品部門的表現令人難以置信。他們為我們公司帶來了令人難以置信的回報。
Nucor-Yamato is operating at a much higher utilization rate. And so -- over the last 2 or 3 years and they have been 10 prior. I think prior to the pandemic, our average utilization rate at NYS, for example, is in the upper 60s to low 70s that shifted much higher to the mid to upper 70s, low 80s. So that flow through and that run rate is generating great returns. So I would tell you, the outlook and continued demand for our structural products and loan products remains pretty optimistic. And again, we've seen incredibly consistent returns in our long products divisions and groups that we think will continue into 2024.
紐柯大和公司的營運利用率要高得多。所以──在過去的兩三年裡,他們已經有十年了。例如,我認為在大流行之前,紐約州的平均利用率在 60 多歲到 70 多歲以下,後來又轉向 70 多歲中上至 80 多歲以下。因此,流量和運行率正在產生巨大的回報。所以我想告訴你,我們的結構性產品和貸款產品的前景和持續需求仍然非常樂觀。我們再次看到我們的長材產品部門和集團取得了令人難以置信的穩定回報,我們認為這種情況將持續到 2024 年。
Daniel R. Needham - EVP of Commercial
Daniel R. Needham - EVP of Commercial
Curt, this is Dan. I'll give a little perspective on what we see in the market, in particular, with the funding programs as well, but if you think of the trends right now, we're seeing activity in some of the (inaudible) and the advanced manufacturing. If you're seeing it in EV, battery plants, those types of things. From a standpoint of IRA, CHIPS, and the Infrastructure Act, there's more activity going on, on the energy side with the IRA and also with the CHIPS. We're active in shipping to multiple CHIPS plants that are under construction today.
簡短地說,這是丹。我將對我們在市場上看到的情況給出一些看法,特別是融資計劃,但如果你考慮一下現在的趨勢,我們會看到一些(聽不清楚)和先進的活動製造業。如果你在電動車、電池廠等類似的地方看到它。從 IRA、CHIPS 和基礎設施法案的角度來看,IRA 和 CHIPS 在能源方面正在進行更多活動。我們正在積極向目前正在建設的多個 CHIPS 工廠發貨。
From an IRA standpoint, we've seen a lot of activity in solar, particularly, 2023 was a record shipment year for us on (inaudible) to go into these solar projects. And we're seeing that growing into 2024. It was about 22 gigawatts built in '23. We see growing to '22 -- about 36 gigawatts in '24.
從 IRA 的角度來看,我們看到了太陽能領域的大量活動,特別是 2023 年是我們(聽不清楚)進入這些太陽能專案的創紀錄的出貨量年。我們看到這一趨勢將持續到 2024 年。23 年建成的發電量約為 22 吉瓦。我們預計到 22 年將成長到 24 年約 36 吉瓦。
What I would say is some of the headwinds, we see the peak of those activities in the volume and demand coming in the next few years. And the reason for that, there's a couple of things that are headwinds in that. One is we've talked about on past calls, the labor constraints. That's real out there. A lot of these projects are competing for the same labor pool. So we do see that having an impact. And then the other thing that's also impacting the pace of these projects is really around regulations. And what I mean by that is getting access to energy for some of these plants is important. That's a slow process.
我想說的是一些不利因素,我們看到這些活動的數量和需求將在未來幾年達到頂峰。究其原因,有一些不利因素。一是我們在過去的電話中談到了勞動力限制。這是真實存在的。許多這樣的計畫都在爭奪同一個勞動力庫。所以我們確實看到了它的影響。另外,影響這些專案進度的另一件事實際上是圍繞法規。我的意思是,為其中一些植物獲取能源非常重要。這是一個緩慢的過程。
The other thing is environmental permitting. So we're seeing some headwinds with those, but not just delaying the projects. And lastly, around the infrastructure, it can take upwards of 18 months to go from when these projects are announced is actually when they start getting shipped. So that's why we still see some optimism and are very positive in the outlook and we're well positioned to take advantage of all of these trends going forward.
另一件事是環境允許。因此,我們看到了這些方面的一些阻力,但不僅僅是推遲了專案。最後,圍繞基礎設施,從這些項目宣佈到實際開始交付可能需要 18 個月以上的時間。因此,我們仍然看到一些樂觀情緒,並對前景非常樂觀,並且我們處於有利位置,可以利用所有這些未來趨勢。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Great. And then just as a follow-up for Steel Products. You noted incremental pricing weakness in the quarter. Can you just comment -- can you give any more specificity around how you see margins trending in this quarter or the margin profile of the backlog? I mean, obviously, there's a lot of moving pieces within the Steel Products segment. But do you have a view on where margins should normalize? And then with respect to getting up to that $700 million EBITDA number, can you do that organically? Or would you need to acquire as well to reach that?
偉大的。然後作為鋼鐵產品的後續產品。您注意到本季增量定價疲軟。您能否發表評論—您能否更具體地說明您如何看待本季的利潤趨勢或積壓的利潤狀況?我的意思是,顯然,鋼鐵產品領域有很多變動的部分。但您對利潤率應該在哪裡正常化有什麼看法嗎?那麼,對於達到 7 億美元的 EBITDA 數字,你能有機地做到這一點嗎?或者您還需要獲得才能實現這一目標?
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, Curt, that's a lot to unpack in there. What I would tell you on the macro, and I'll let Brad Ford share a little bit more of the details, could be more proud of how our products groups and teams and divisions have performed over the last several years. The non-res sector of our economy has remained incredibly resilient. We had 10 straight quarters over $1 billion earned in that business on the downstream side of our portfolio. And while it was a little bit under that in 2023 for Q4 of '23, its continuing performance is strong. We're seeing order entry rates that are strong. As we move into Q1, we see that moving upwards. I'm not going to get detailed on the margins, but we see that improving. And so Brad, maybe provide a little bit more context to what we're seeing as we enter 2024.
是的,柯特,裡面有很多東西要解開。我要告訴你的宏觀方面,我會讓布拉德福特分享更多的細節,可以讓我們的產品組、團隊和部門在過去幾年中的表現更加自豪。我們經濟中的非資源部門仍然保持著令人難以置信的彈性。我們投資組合的下游業務連續 10 個季度獲利超過 10 億美元。雖然 23 年第 4 季的數據略低於 2023 年的數據,但持續表現強勁。我們看到訂單輸入率很高。當我們進入第一季時,我們看到這一趨勢正在上升。我不會詳細介紹利潤率,但我們看到情況有所改善。 Brad,也許可以為我們進入 2024 年時所看到的情況提供更多背景資訊。
Brad Ford - EVP of Fabricated Construction Products
Brad Ford - EVP of Fabricated Construction Products
Yes. Thanks, Leon, and thanks for the question. Like Leon, I couldn't be more pleased with the performance of our downstream product teams. Performance of safety, the clear step change in earnings and the solutions and value we're providing to our customers, and our team is executing extremely well.
是的。謝謝萊昂,也謝謝你的提問。和萊昂一樣,我對我們下游產品團隊的表現感到非常滿意。安全性能、收益的明顯變化以及我們為客戶提供的解決方案和價值,我們的團隊執行得非常好。
Joist and deck tends to get a lot of headlines. And while joist and deck is coming off its second best year ever, Nucor downstream products is far more than just joist and deck. For example, our insulated metal panel group is coming off a record year; rebar fabrication, a record year; pre-engineered metal building, second best year ever; Particular Products Group, second best year ever; [garage door], [fasteners], towers, structures, warehouse systems, Skyline on down the list. This amazing product diversity positions Nucor uniquely to take advantage of strength in a variety of the market segments.
托樑和甲板往往會成為許多頭條新聞。雖然托樑和甲板迎來了有史以來第二好的一年,但紐柯下游產品遠不止托樑和甲板。例如,我們的絕緣金屬板集團今年取得了創紀錄的成績;鋼筋製造,創紀錄的一年;預製金屬建築,有史以來第二好的一年;特定產品組,有史以來第二好的一年; [車庫門]、[緊固件]、塔、結構、倉庫系統、天際線在清單中。這種驚人的產品多樣性使紐柯公司能夠在各個細分市場中發揮獨特的優勢。
As Dan mentioned, we see strength in advanced manufacturing and data centers supported by IRA and CHIPS, infrastructure supported by the IIJA. We also see strength in health care, education and warehousing while down is still forecasted significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Our ability to offer this breadth of downstream products is unparalleled in the industry. These are secure, sustainable solutions for our customers and partners that continue to differentiate Nucor as the supplier of choice.
正如 Dan 所提到的,我們看到了 IRA 和 CHIPS 支援的先進製造和資料中心的實力,以及 IIJA 支援的基礎設施。我們也看到醫療保健、教育和倉儲領域的實力強勁,但預計下降幅度仍顯著高於疫情前的水平。我們提供如此廣泛的下游產品的能力在業界是無與倫比的。這些是為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供的安全、永續的解決方案,使紐柯公司繼續成為首選供應商。
We're coming off a period in '21 and '22 of extremely high demand. And while we see demand moderating back towards historical levels, it's still quite strong. And while volumes have moderated, our backlog remains very healthy, and pricing has stabilized at levels far higher than historical averages. In fact, Q4, industry-wide bookings in joist and deck were the highest in 6 quarters and 40% higher than Q4 of last year. So we're optimistic, and we're entering '24 with more market activity and momentum than we entered 2023.
我們正在經歷 21 和 22 年需求極高的時期。儘管我們看到需求回落至歷史水平,但仍然相當強勁。儘管銷量有所放緩,但我們的積壓仍然非常健康,價格也穩定在遠高於歷史平均的水平。事實上,第四季托樑和甲板的全行業預訂量是 6 個季度以來最高的,比去年第四季高出 40%。因此,我們很樂觀,進入 24 年時,市場活動和勢頭將比 2023 年時更多。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.
我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Katja Jancic。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
At your Investor Day in 2022, you provided an EBITDA bridge that would get you to normalized EBITDA of about $6.7 billion. Can you provide an update on how you're progressing on reaching that goal?
在 2022 年投資者日,您提供了一座 EBITDA 橋樑,讓您可以實現約 67 億美元的正常化 EBITDA。您能否提供有關實現該目標的最新進展?
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, I'd actually be pleased to. So in November of 2022, we stood in New York and rolled out the most comprehensive detailed analysis that we've ever published before to show you as the analysts what we were going to do and the accountability by which we're going to hold ourselves to that through-cycle EBITDA with the completion of our CapEx investments would yield about a $6.7 billion through-cycle EBITDA performance. I'd tell you at 7.4% for the third best year in Nucor, we're doing really well and that's going to continue to improve because not all those projects have come to fruition yet. We've got Galv Lines being built, we've got our new micro mill being built in Lexington, North Carolina, we've got the investments in Kingman, Arizona that we're making, where we're expanding our resource pool and how we bring these products to market.
是的,我真的很樂意。因此,2022 年 11 月,我們站在紐約,推出了我們之前發表過的最全面的詳細分析,向分析師展示我們將要做什麼以及我們將承擔的責任完成我們的資本支出投資後,整個週期的EBITDA 將產生約67 億美元的整個週期EBITDA 績效。我可以告訴你,紐柯公司第三好的年份為 7.4%,我們做得非常好,而且會繼續改善,因為並非所有這些項目都已取得成果。我們正在建造 Galv Lines,我們在北卡羅來納州列剋星敦建造了新的微型工廠,我們正在亞利桑那州金曼進行投資,我們正在那裡擴大我們的資源庫,我們如何將這些產品推向市場。
So I would tell you we're doing incredibly well. And again, we'll look back at times and look -- coming out of the cycle, did we hit the trough? And what I would tell you is like I'm really proud of our earnings. I'm proud of the way the team has been able to accomplish those. And then again, the results that we've been able to see, as we shared with you on the opening remarks, to generate $30 billion over the last 4 years, $20 billion in net earnings and 10% or $10 billion given back to our shareholders has been an incredible well disciplined growth strategy and that's going to continue. We're going to be very disciplined in how we think about capital allocation moving forward.
所以我想告訴你,我們做得非常好。再說一次,我們有時會回顧一下──走出這個循環,我們是否已經跌入低谷?我想說的是,我對我們的收入感到非常自豪。我為團隊能夠實現這些目標的方式感到自豪。再說一遍,我們已經能夠看到的結果,正如我們在開場白中與大家分享的那樣,在過去 4 年中創造了 300 億美元,淨利潤為 200 億美元,10% 或 100 億美元回饋給我們股東一直是個令人難以置信的、紀律嚴明的成長策略,而且這種策略將會持續下去。我們將非常嚴格地思考未來的資本配置。
Steve, anything you'd like to add on as we continue to grow and looking at that run rate of 6.7%?
Steve,隨著我們不斷發展並看到 6.7% 的運行率,您還有什麼想補充的嗎?
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Yes. Katja, just to add on to what Leon said, a lot of those projects are ahead of us. If you take a look at some of the biggest ones in our company's history like West Virginia, those are only in the early stages of their project life. So they haven't even started to contribute. And in terms of our Expand Beyond investments, we told you that we felt confident those investments would hit $700 million in EBITDA. And we still -- and we reaffirm that today, and tell you we feel very confident, we'll hit $700 million at the run rate at the end there.
是的。 Katja,補充 Leon 所說的,很多這樣的計畫就在我們面前。如果您看一下我們公司歷史上一些最大的項目,例如西維吉尼亞州,您會發現這些項目僅處於專案生命的早期階段。所以他們甚至還沒有開始做出貢獻。就我們的 Expand Beyond 投資而言,我們告訴過您,我們有信心這些投資的 EBITDA 將達到 7 億美元。我們今天仍然重申這一點,並告訴你們,我們非常有信心,按照最終的運行速度,我們將達到 7 億美元。
So there's still more to come on that. And like Leon said, cycles go where they go, but we're continuing to execute on our business on all fronts.
所以還有更多的事情要做。正如萊昂所說,自行車去哪裡就去哪裡,但我們將繼續在各個方面執行我們的業務。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
And maybe just quickly on the Brandenburg plate mill. What do you -- how much do you expect the mill will produce in '24? I think previously you were expecting about 500,000 tons.
也許很快就會在勃蘭登堡板材軋機上出現。您預計工廠 24 年的產量是多少?我想此前你們預計產量約 50 萬噸。
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Yes, Katja, this is Al Behr. That's still our number for 2024. I would expect to be there or north of it. I'm just super proud of that team on how they've worked through the ramp-up there. We continue to be focused on the new part of the market that we can't service out of our existing portfolio, and we remain mindful of the returns we generate through there at Hertford and Tuscaloosa that contributed to the strong results you see in front of you, and we want to add to that out of Brandenburg. So we're going to continue that thoughtful process, but Q4 was a meaningful productive quarter for that team. We continue to set new standards.
是的,卡佳,我是艾爾貝赫爾。這仍然是我們 2024 年的數字。我預計會達到這個數字或超過這個數字。我為該團隊的快速發展感到非常自豪。我們繼續專注於我們現有投資組合無法提供服務的新市場,我們仍然關注我們在赫特福德和塔斯卡盧薩通過那裡產生的回報,這些回報為您在前面看到的強勁業績做出了貢獻您,我們也想補充勃蘭登堡的內容。因此,我們將繼續這個深思熟慮的過程,但第四季度對於該團隊來說是一個有意義的富有成效的季度。我們繼續制定新標準。
We shipped another Nucor first of 120-foot long plates to a bridge fabricator, 30 tons a piece. We shipped them by truck and by rail. So these are the kinds of things that we'll be able to do on a Brandenburg that's never been done before by Nucor or perhaps the rest of the industry, and we're just excited as we roll into this year. But that remains our number, and we're confident in that.
我們將紐柯公司的第一塊 120 英尺長板材運送給橋樑製造商,每塊 30 噸。我們透過卡車和鐵路運輸它們。因此,這些都是我們能夠在勃蘭登堡號上做的事情,這是紐柯公司或行業其他公司以前從未做過的事情,當我們進入今年時,我們感到非常興奮。但這仍然是我們的數字,我們對此充滿信心。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.
下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
I wanted to ask a little bit more about capital allocation. I guess first off, the comment on lower cash balance. What do you think is the right level? Because clearly, it's been running kind of high recently. So just to get a little more color there.
我想多問一些關於資本配置的問題。我想首先是關於現金餘額減少的評論。您認為什麼水平才是適當的?因為很明顯,它最近一直在走高。所以只是為了在那裡多一點顏色。
And secondly, you made mention of preserving liquidity for potential M&A and acquisition that you thought (inaudible) it didn't. And here at an industry conference, there's a lot of chatter about Nucor's supposed involvement in the acquisition process for U.S. Steel. Just wondering if you can comment on that or give us some more color perhaps on your M&A pipeline, what that might look like, what types of companies, et cetera?
其次,您提到了為潛在的併購和收購保留流動性,但您認為(聽不清楚)它沒有這樣做。在產業會議上,人們對紐柯鋼鐵涉嫌參與美國鋼鐵公司的收購過程進行了許多討論。只是想知道您是否可以對此發表評論,或者給我們更多關於您的併購管道的信息,這可能是什麼樣子,公司類型是什麼,等等?
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, Timna, I'll kick it off and then let Steve. So I'll begin with the second part of your question, which, again, obviously, the proxies have, Nucor took a hard look at some of the select assets within the U.S. Steel portfolio. But at the end of the day, we're not going to overpay for any assets. We're going to continue to be very disciplined in how we think about growth, some of the cash generated was just stronger results and stronger shipments and some pricing that had (inaudible) that we didn't fully anticipate. But I would tell you, again, from my perspective, we continue to remain an incredibly undervalued stock. As we think about the growth metrics that I have already shared, I won't repeat again, but at 7.5x EBITDA, I think we are a great value in terms of the things that we're doing in producing.
是的,提姆納,我會先開始,然後讓史蒂夫來。因此,我將從你問題的第二部分開始,顯然,經紀人已經仔細研究了美國鋼鐵投資組合中的一些精選資產。但歸根結底,我們不會為任何資產支付過高的費用。我們將繼續非常嚴格地看待成長,產生的一些現金只是更強勁的業績和更強勁的出貨量以及一些我們沒有完全預料到的(聽不清楚)定價。但我想再告訴你,從我的角度來看,我們仍然是一檔被嚴重低估的股票。當我們思考我已經分享過的成長指標時,我不會再重複,但以 7.5 倍的 EBITDA 計算,我認為就我們在生產方面所做的事情而言,我們具有巨大的價值。
In regards of who ends up owning U.S. fields assets, Nucor today's market cap is larger than the next 3 largest combined steel companies in North America. We are the industry leader. And so again, as we look at our strategy and our growth, we're going to be incredibly disciplined in making sure that the investments we make in our core and expand beyond are delivering the results our shareholders expect. And then the Expand Beyond particularly that it's providing some insulation to the traditional cyclicality of steel that we're looking for the steel adjacent downstream businesses that, again, operate a little countercyclical to what we're seeing in steel and we're seeing those, again, manifest themselves with C.H.I., the megatrends that we're seeing in towers and structures and some of the other businesses that we've acquired over the last 3 or 4 years.
就誰最終擁有美國油田資產而言,紐柯公司目前的市值比北美排名第二的三大鋼鐵公司還要高。我們是業界的領導者。因此,當我們審視我們的策略和成長時,我們將非常嚴格地確保我們在核心領域和其他領域進行的投資能夠實現股東期望的結果。然後,特別是它為鋼鐵的傳統週期性提供了一些隔離,我們正在尋找與鋼鐵相鄰的下游企業,這些企業的運營與我們在鋼鐵中看到的有點反週期,我們看到了這些再次,C.H.I.體現了這一點,這是我們在塔樓和建築以及我們在過去三、四年收購的其他一些業務中看到的大趨勢。
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Timna, this is Steve. I'll just add to what Leon said that we don't -- we have such a good opportunity in front of us. And you highlight us the areas that we think about growth. So we're always going to keep enough liquidity to move on the things we need to move on. And we also highlighted that we will spend around $3.5 billion in CapEx in this year. So that's a higher rate than our historic averages. Despite that, we will -- Leon highlighted this one, too. We still feel like our stock is a good buy here. So you'll see us at a higher pace for share buybacks in Q1 than we did last year.
提姆納,這是史蒂夫。我只想補充一下萊昂所說的,我們沒有──我們面前有這麼好的機會。您向我們強調了我們考慮成長的領域。因此,我們始終會保持足夠的流動性來處理我們需要處理的事情。我們也強調,今年我們將花費約 35 億美元的資本支出。所以這個比率高於我們的歷史平均值。儘管如此,我們——萊昂也強調了這一點。我們仍然覺得我們的股票在這裡值得買入。因此,您會看到我們第一季的股票回購速度比去年更快。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Okay, that's super helpful. I guess one quick one, if I could add. I know there was a question already about Brandenburg run rate, but I was just wondering, is there still more room to see Gallatin on an annualized basis ramp up? Or is it already pretty fully running out to the expansion?
好的,這非常有幫助。如果我可以補充的話,我想快點吧。我知道已經有一個關於勃蘭登堡運行率的問題,但我只是想知道,加拉廷的年化率是否還有更大的上升空間?或者它已經完全耗盡以進行擴展了嗎?
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Sorry, was your question on Gallatin's ramp-up?
抱歉,您的問題是關於加勒廷的升級嗎?
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Yes, the status of that, if you could, please?
是的,請問情況如何?
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Okay. Yes, I'll provide some high level. What I would tell you in the last 3 or 4 months of 2023, the team has executed incredibly well. We've seen daily, weekly, monthly production records set at that facility. They're -- have realized the full run rate potential of that mill and now are operating at an extremely high level. So they have turned -- more than turned in the quarter and again, are producing at or near run rate capabilities, and we'll continue to add as we move into 2024.
好的。是的,我會提供一些高水準的資訊。我可以告訴你的是,在 2023 年的最後 3 到 4 個月裡,團隊的執行情況非常好。我們已經看到該工廠每天、每週、每月的生產記錄。他們已經意識到該工廠的全部運作率潛力,現在正在以極高的水平運作。因此,他們已經轉變——超過本季度的轉變,並且正在以或接近運行速度生產能力,隨著進入 2024 年,我們將繼續增加。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
So I guess, first, in the plate market. I guess what are your views on the plate market given the step-up in service center inventories we saw in December and the year-on-year decline in shipments despite Brandenburg's ramp? And I guess following up on that Brandenburg sort of ramp commentary, when can we expect to see Brandenburg turn profitable this year?
所以我想,首先是在板材市場。鑑於 12 月份服務中心庫存增加以及儘管勃蘭登堡產量增加但出貨量同比下降,我想您對板材市場有何看法?我想根據勃蘭登堡的斜坡評論,我們什麼時候可以看到勃蘭登堡今年扭虧為盈?
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Yes. Bill, this is Al Behr, again. I'll comment on the plate stuff. We did have an increase year-over-year in shipments by 11% and part of that is, of course, Brandenburg. But just speaking about the plate market overall, I'd say we're reasonably optimistic. I mean, there's areas of weakness that get some headlines and higher interest rates are a compressive force when it comes to vertical construction where plate is used. But there's plenty of bright spots in other areas like power transmission and railcar manufacturing. Heavy equipment is still strong. It's probably declining, but it's still strong and a good pull-through for us. So -- and then, of course, you've got the bridge and highway tons that are mostly yet to come, and that will come for years in the future.
是的。比爾,我又是阿爾貝赫爾。我將對盤子的東西發表評論。我們的出貨量確實年增了 11%,其中一部分當然是勃蘭登堡。但就整體板材市場而言,我想說我們相當樂觀。我的意思是,對於使用板材的垂直建築來說,有一些弱點會成為頭條新聞,而較高的利率是一種壓力。但電力傳輸和軌道車輛製造等其他領域也有很多亮點。重型裝備依然強勁。它可能正在下降,但仍然強勁,對我們來說是一個很好的支撐。所以——然後,當然,你已經擁有了大部分尚未建成的橋樑和高速公路,而且這將在未來幾年內建成。
So our Skyline business that Brad mentioned pulls a lot of plate tons through almost all of their work is infrastructure related, not just bridge and highway, but many other types of projects. So our view is not that the plate market is going to be wildly robust, but it's going to remain pretty steady and has plenty of tailwinds to offset some of the other forces working against us.
因此,布拉德提到的我們的天際線業務在幾乎所有與基礎設施相關的工作中拉動了大量的板噸,不僅是橋樑和高速公路,還有許多其他類型的項目。因此,我們的觀點並不是板材市場將非常強勁,但它將保持相當穩定,並且有足夠的有利因素來抵消其他一些不利於我們的因素。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
And on the Brandenburg profitability timeline?
那麼勃蘭登堡獲利時間表呢?
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
I'd expect we hit a run rate of breakeven sometime in the middle of the year.
我預計我們會在年中某個時候達到盈虧平衡的運作率。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
Okay. Second question is a little bit longer dated, longer focused. But in the last earnings presentation, there's been certainly less on the decarbonization efforts. But with the team having many multi-faceted approach across biocarbon and green pig iron, the CCS program you mentioned, power generation, zero emission and so forth. I guess are any of these showing up in 2024 within your investments in CapEx, for example, the CCS program that you have planned for '26. I guess how should we think about these programs in terms of what's leading and how they flow through over the next several years?
好的。第二個問題有點過時,也更集中。但在上一次的財報中,脫碳工作的內容肯定較少。但該團隊在生物碳和綠色生鐵、您提到的 CCS 計劃、發電、零排放等方面採取了許多多方面的方法。我猜想這些內容是否會在 2024 年出現在您的資本支出投資中,例如您為 26 年計劃的 CCS 計劃。我想我們應該如何考慮這些計劃的主要內容以及它們在未來幾年如何實施?
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. Look, I'll begin and Greg Murphy, our EVP and Business Services and sustainability can jump in as well. But from a high level, look, it's a great question. One of the beautiful things about Nucor and our positioning is one of the top 5 recyclers in the world and certainly the largest in the Western Hemisphere. Our EAF steelmaking technology means that we don't have to take the billions and billions and billions of dollars of profit we're making in pivot, in transition from the old style integrated facilities. You're seeing headlines around the world, companies in Europe that are -- have made the pledge to 100% switch to EAF steelmaking technologies because they have no choice.
是的。我先開始,我們的執行副總裁兼業務服務和永續發展部門的 Greg Murphy 也可以加入。但從高層次來看,這是一個很好的問題。紐柯的一大優點和我們的定位是世界排名前 5 名的回收商之一,當然也是西半球最大的回收商。我們的電弧爐煉鋼技術意味著我們不必從舊式綜合設施的轉型中獲得數十億美元的利潤。你會看到世界各地的頭條新聞,歐洲的公司已經承諾 100% 轉向電弧爐煉鋼技術,因為他們別無選擇。
The question in my mind isn't about (inaudible). This nation is going to move to a greener, more sustainable platform as we rebuild, restore and continue to grow the digital economy. The real question in my mind is the pace in which we changed. Do we have the infrastructure? Do we have the grid hardening? Do we have the resources across the United States to be able to effectively help the EV users power their cars at homes and everything else.
我心中的問題不是(聽不清楚)。隨著我們重建、恢復並繼續發展數位經濟,這個國家將轉向更綠色、更永續的平台。我心中真正的問題是我們改變的步伐。我們有基礎建設嗎?我們有網格強化嗎?我們是否擁有遍布美國的資源來有效幫助電動車用戶為他們的汽車在家中和其他地方供電?
But it's a long-winded way to get to the answer of your question. If you think about the VPPAs that were part of, when you think about some of these investment projects, the Louisiana partnership in Exxon, they didn't cost us anything because of the strength of our balance sheet, the strength of Nucor's leadership position, it wasn't a huge outlay of cash. If you think about some of the other investments that are smaller in size. So they're not -- they're tens of millions rather than hundreds of billions. It's positioning ourselves and finding partners out there that are doing different things with carbon and biochar. We're looking at technologies in Europe that are producing pig iron at or near net zero embodied carbon. So there's a number of things that we're examining that are not, at this point, large scale from a CapEx standpoint. Greg, anything you'd add to that?
但這是一種冗長的方式來回答你的問題。如果你考慮一下VPPA,當你考慮其中一些投資項目時,路易斯安那州與埃克森美孚的合作夥伴關係,它們並沒有讓我們付出任何代價,因為我們的資產負債表實力雄厚,紐柯公司的領導地位實力雄厚,並不是巨額現金支出。如果您考慮其他一些規模較小的投資。所以他們不是——他們是數千萬而不是數千億。它正在定位自己並尋找利用碳和生物炭做不同事情的合作夥伴。我們正在研究歐洲生產生鐵的隱含碳為零或接近零的技術。因此,我們正在研究的許多事情從資本支出的角度來看,目前規模還不是很大。格雷格,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Gregory J. Murphy - EVP of Business Services & General Counsel
Gregory J. Murphy - EVP of Business Services & General Counsel
Yes. I guess on the timing issue, we see the Louisiana project beginning to pay dividends probably in 2025. But as Leon said, that is not at all a capital-intensive investment for Newport. We were able to structure that as an over-the-fence solution, working with a partner who really understands the geology and the petrochemical attributes there in ExxonMobil. And with the 45Q tax credit, that has proven to be a financial winner for Nucor really from beginning to end.
是的。我想在時間問題上,我們看到路易斯安那州項目可能會在 2025 年開始支付股息。但正如萊昂所說,這對紐波特來說根本不是資本密集型投資。透過與真正了解埃克森美孚地質和石化屬性的合作夥伴合作,我們能夠將其建構成跨界解決方案。事實證明,憑藉 45Q 稅收抵免,這從頭到尾確實是紐柯的財務贏家。
And a lot of the other strategies that we will deploy as an EAF producer go to things like our source and supply of raw materials and how we can get lower embodied carbon raw materials, how we can use obsolete scrap and extract some of the tramp elements from that and use that to replace things like pig iron.
作為電弧爐生產商,我們將部署的許多其他策略涉及原材料的來源和供應,以及我們如何獲得較低碳含量的原材料,我們如何使用廢棄廢料並提取一些雜質元素從中提取並用它來代替生鐵之類的東西。
So from a capital intensity standpoint, Leon nailed it. We are in a well-positioned place. And really, what we're trying to do is to take a world-class level and make it even better, and we're very, very excited.
因此,從資本密集度的角度來看,萊昂做到了這一點。我們處於有利位置。事實上,我們正在努力做到的是達到世界一流水平並使其變得更好,我們非常非常興奮。
The last thing I would mention is that Scope 2 emissions, that's a big opportunity for Newport. You've seen us make investments in both nuclear fission and nuclear fusion technology. We believe that's going to be an essential element in delivering reliable, affordable baseload power in the future that's zero carbon. That's still going to be a number of years out into the future. But we believe it's going to be absolutely essential to supplement the solar and wind and other renewable clean sources in the future. But again, we don't want to build nuclear power plants. We want to be the offtakers and use that power.
我要提到的最後一件事是範圍 2 排放,這對紐波特來說是一個巨大的機會。您已經看到我們在核分裂和核融合技術方面進行了投資。我們相信,這將成為未來提供可靠、負擔得起的零碳基本負載電力的重要因素。這仍然是未來幾年的事。但我們相信,未來補充太陽能、風能和其他再生清潔能源是絕對必要的。但同樣,我們不想建造核電廠。我們希望成為承購者並利用這種權力。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Martin Englert with Seaport Research Partners.
下一個問題來自海港研究合作夥伴的馬丁恩格勒特。
Martin John Englert - Senior Analyst
Martin John Englert - Senior Analyst
A question on conversion costs, they were pretty similar year-on-year around $465 per ton. Just wanted to see if -- what your thoughts were if this was a reasonable range to expect on a go-forward basis considering today's operating structure? Or is this something that has an opportunity to come down as start-up costs (inaudible) to subside from some of the growth projects?
關於轉換成本的問題,它們與去年同期非常相似,約為每噸 465 美元。只是想看看—考慮到今天的營運結構,您的想法是不是一個合理的預期範圍?或者,這是否有機會隨著某些成長項目的啟動成本(聽不清楚)而下降?
David A. Sumoski - COO
David A. Sumoski - COO
Yes, this is Dave Sumoski. Certainly, some of the growth projects, especially Gallatin has -- that's increased our cost based on some of the things that we've done up there and some of the -- it was a little bit slower with starting than we had expected. So we can expect the costs to come down a little bit, but not a lot. I think Gallatin is running at a really good rate now. (inaudible) we were probably near full run rate so we're going to be in a good spot this year.
是的,我是戴夫·蘇莫斯基。當然,一些成長項目,尤其是加勒廷——根據我們在那裡所做的一些事情增加了我們的成本,還有一些——啟動速度比我們預期的要慢一些。因此,我們可以預期成本會下降一點,但不會下降很多。我認為加勒廷現在的運行速度非常好。 (聽不清楚)我們可能已接近滿載運行,因此今年我們將處於有利位置。
Martin John Englert - Senior Analyst
Martin John Englert - Senior Analyst
Okay. And I just wanted to circle back on the discussion of plate and structural and this is from the mill perspective, looking at the plate volumes and the beam volumes. There was just year-on-year divergent trend when you look at the quarterly where you saw plate come down in 4Q, but had been growing and then you have the opposite in structural products. Anything else to add there as far as color as to why those would have pivoted so differently through the course of the year?
好的。我只是想回顧一下板材和結構的討論,這是從工廠的角度來看的,看看板材的體積和樑的體積。當你看季度數據時,你會看到板塊在第四季度下降,但一直在增長,然後你在結構性產品中看到相反的情況,只是同比趨勢不同。至於為什麼這些在這一年會有如此不同的轉變,還有什麼可以補充的嗎?
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Sure, Martin. This is Al Behr, again. I'll start with plate, so year-over-year growth, but you see same quarter year-over-year, we took a step back. A lot of that is just we're not going to chase cheap tons. And in Q4, we had some of the imports come in, and those spreads just got to be where we're not going to load our books with tons that aren't profitable and aren't going to drive returns for us. So I think that will change as we move forward, and I spoke to our outlook for 2024 in plate.
當然,馬丁。這又是阿爾·貝赫爾。我將從板塊開始,所以同比增長,但你會看到同一個季度同比,我們後退了一步。其中很多只是我們不會追逐廉價噸。在第四季度,我們有一些進口產品進入,這些價差必須達到我們不會在帳簿上裝載大量無利可圖且不會為我們帶來回報的水平。因此,我認為隨著我們的前進,這種情況將會改變,我在板塊中談到了我們對 2024 年的展望。
In beams, you saw a really great quarter of beams. Part of that speaks to the resiliency of the market and Brad spoke to that and we spoke to that. It just remains a resilient market, and there's plenty of areas of strength where we can go and compete and win and you see that. But part of that is also the breadth of Nucor's portfolio. And some of those tons, you see in the beam group, are tons to our downstream customers, Skyline being one of them, that won some nice projects and you'll see them ship those tons through the first half as they convert and perform. So there's just always -- Nucor's success is a multilayered story. There's always a cylinder firing. And the numbers that you see, I think, just reflect that, especially on the beam side.
在梁中,您看到了非常大的四分之一梁。其中部分原因在於市場的彈性,而布拉德談到了這一點,我們也談到了這一點。它仍然是一個有彈性的市場,並且有很多我們可以去競爭並獲勝的優勢領域,你會看到這一點。但這也是紐柯公司產品組合的廣度的一部分。其中一些噸,你在梁組中看到,對我們的下游客戶來說是噸,Skyline就是其中之一,贏得了一些不錯的項目,你會看到他們在轉換和執行時在上半年運送了這些噸。所以,紐柯公司的成功始終是一個多層次的故事。總是有汽缸點火。我認為你看到的數字正好反映了這一點,尤其是在光束側。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP.
下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Tristan Gresser。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
The first one is on capital allocation, and thank you for touching on the M&A situation. If I could just have a quick follow-up there. When you look at the pipeline of opportunities, is it fair to assume the most -- well, all those opportunities are inside the U.S. and you're not looking at opportunities abroad. And in the past, when you look at the balance between organic and inorganic, I wonder if you could comment a little bit where, in the priority list, greenfield projects are essentially. That's my first question.
第一個是關於資本配置,謝謝您談到併購情況。如果我能在那裡進行快速跟進就好了。當你審視機會的管道時,假設大多數機會都在美國境內,而你沒有在國外尋找機會,這是否公平。過去,當您考慮有機和無機之間的平衡時,我想知道您是否可以評論綠地項目在優先列表中的本質位置。這是我的第一個問題。
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, Tristan, I'll kick it off and certainly let Steve (inaudible) and share any additional comments. But if you look at our M&A pipeline, you think about our strategy. If you think about growing the core and expanding beyond, what we said is roughly we expect over the next 5, 6 years, that we would begin to generate about 20% to 25% of our overall revenues through expand beyond businesses. So we're moving to that. So it sort of gives you a rough breakdown to where you're going to see us continue to think about growth, where we're going to continue to channel our capital dollars.
是的,特里斯坦,我會開始,當然也讓史蒂夫(聽不清楚)分享任何其他評論。但如果你看看我們的併購管道,你就會想到我們的策略。如果你考慮發展核心業務並擴展到其他業務,我們所說的大致預期是在未來 5、6 年裡,我們將開始透過業務擴展來產生約 20% 到 25% 的總收入。所以我們正在朝這個方向邁進。因此,它可以讓您大致了解我們將在哪些方面繼續考慮成長,我們將在哪些方面繼續引導我們的資本。
Regarding the geography, I would tell you, it's probably a safe bet that Nucor is going to stay in North America. That's the sector of this economy that we know the best, where we have the most advantages to use the strength of Nucor from our culture, our team, our conversion model and understanding. As the market leader in 12 of the 14 major steel market and categories, we've been in business a long time. We understand the boundaries around this industry, and we also understand our customers and where they're wanting to go. We're making investments not for our benefits. We're making investments not to be the largest by volume, we're being disciplined in those investments to create capability sets that our customers continue to grow their businesses and continue to flourish.
關於地理位置,我會告訴你,紐柯公司可能會留在北美,這是一個安全的賭注。這是我們最了解的經濟領域,我們最有優勢利用我們的文化、我們的團隊、我們的轉換模型和理解來利用紐柯的優勢。作為 14 個主要鋼鐵市場和類別中 12 個市場的市場領導者,我們已經開展業務很長時間了。我們了解這個行業的邊界,我們也了解我們的客戶以及他們想要去的地方。我們進行投資並不是為了自己的利益。我們進行的投資並不是數量上最大的,我們在這些投資中遵守紀律,以創造能力集,使我們的客戶能夠繼續發展他們的業務並繼續蓬勃發展。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
All right. That's helpful. Moving on to maybe the rebar market, can you discuss a little bit the demand trends you've been seeing there over the past couple of weeks? And we've seen the price hikes coming through, putting an end to some metal spread compression, do you see any reason on the ground to expect further moderation? Or you believe the market has now found kind of a new equilibrium there?
好的。這很有幫助。或許轉向螺紋鋼市場,您能否討論一下過去幾週您所看到的需求趨勢?我們已經看到價格上漲,結束了一些金屬價差壓縮,您認為有任何理由預期進一步放緩嗎?或者您認為市場現在已經找到了一種新的平衡?
John J. Hollatz - EVP of Bar, Engineered Bar & Rebar Fabrication Products
John J. Hollatz - EVP of Bar, Engineered Bar & Rebar Fabrication Products
Yes, Tristan. This is John Hollatz. We did see some improved margins in rebar in the fourth quarter. And over the course of the year, rebar remained pretty steady as we've talked about these infrastructure projects and other demand and construction continuing to grow, we're bullish on the rebar market for the future.
是的,特里斯坦。這是約翰·霍拉茨。我們確實看到第四季度螺紋鋼的利潤率有所改善。在這一年中,螺紋鋼保持相當穩定,因為我們談到了這些基礎設施項目以及其他需求和建設的持續成長,我們看好螺紋鋼市場的未來。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Okay. That's clear. Maybe last question then on plate. I know it has been discussed a bit but in your outlook, the weakness you're seeing in heavy equipment or earthmoving machinery, how new is that? How severe is it? And in terms of outlook, I think you mentioned something, you said it would be steady. Should I understand it as weakness -- those incoming part or portion of weakness being offset by more supported construction infrastructure that's coming on?
好的。很清楚。也許最後一個問題就在盤子上。我知道這已經被討論過一些,但在您的展望中,您在重型設備或土方機械中看到的弱點,這有多新?有多嚴重?就前景而言,我認為您提到了一些事情,您說它會保持穩定。我是否應該將其理解為弱點——那些即將到來的部分或部分弱點被即將到來的更多支持的建築基礎設施所抵消?
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Yes, Tristan, Al again. Is your question primarily just around that heavy equipment piece? I want to make sure I get that right.
是的,特里斯坦,又是艾爾。您的問題主要是關於重型設備嗎?我想確保我做對了。
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Yes, the kind of the red dot you put in the table and that includes heavy equipment, earthmoving machinery. So some weakness you're seeing there, just trying to figure out if that's new and if it's severe. And then when you look at the outlook for metal spreads for plate, they've been pretty steady in January. Is that something you expect to continue? Or do you think that weakness you just flagged could potentially imply some further moderation there?
是的,就是你放在表格中的紅點,其中包括重型設備、土方機械。所以你在那裡看到了一些弱點,只是想弄清楚這是否是新的以及是否嚴重。然後,當你觀察板材金屬價差的前景時,會發現一月份的金屬價差相當穩定。您希望繼續這樣嗎?或者您認為您剛剛指出的弱點可能意味著進一步的溫和化?
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Allen C. Behr - EVP of Plate & Structural Products
Okay. Let me address the heavy equipment piece. My comments about it declining, I wouldn't say, are new in terms of the decline in that sector. That's been happening through the second half of the year. I wouldn't say we see that as a really strong decline going into 2024 because there's obviously -- with infrastructure, there's going to be some spending in that end-use market that will keep that somewhat buoy, but we do see it continuing to decline a bit as one of several end markets where we serve with plate. So all of that put together with non-res construction and some of the other highlights that we talked about in those markets, our outlook for plate is relatively optimistic just in terms of small, like low single-digit incremental growth year-over-year, that there's plenty of different parts where we can compete separate from the ramp-up that we'll have in Brandenburg, where we'll grab some incremental time just by that alone. Is that helpful?
好的。讓我談談重型設備。我不會說,我關於該行業下降的評論對於該行業的下降是新的。這種情況一直持續到今年下半年。我不會說我們認為進入2024 年會出現真正的強勁下降,因為顯然,在基礎設施方面,最終用途市場將會有一些支出,這將使這種情況保持一定程度的增長,但我們確實看到它會繼續下降。作為我們提供板材服務的幾個終端市場之一,略有下降。因此,所有這些加上非可再生能源建設以及我們在這些市場中討論的其他一些亮點,我們對板材的前景相對樂觀,只是在較小的方面,例如同比低個位數增量增長,除了我們在勃蘭登堡的加速之外,我們還有很多不同的部分可以競爭,在那裡我們僅憑這一點就能獲得一些增量時間。有幫助嗎?
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Tristan Gresser - Research Analyst
Yes, that's really helpful.
是的,這確實很有幫助。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Curt Woodworth with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的科特·伍德沃斯。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
I just had a quick follow-up on capital spending outlook. So of the growth capital you've outlined for this year, how much of that will carry over into next year? And can you just remind us on the time line of when you think Steel West Virginia will start to ramp? And then you also noted a potential, I think, new micro mill bar project in the Pacific Northwest. If you could just comment on that.
我剛剛對資本支出前景進行了快速跟進。那麼,您為今年概述的成長資本中,有多少將延續到明年?您能否提醒我們一下您認為西維吉尼亞鋼鐵公司何時開始產能擴張的時間線?然後你也提到了一個潛在的,我認為是在太平洋西北地區的一個新的微型磨棒計畫。如果你能對此發表評論的話。
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Stephen D. Laxton - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Yes. Curt, this is Steve. The $3.5 billion projection is our expectation for 2024. And I think if you're trying to extrapolate what future years are going to be, some of those projects like West Virginia are going to push our capital spending into '25 higher than historic averages. But likely, if you're potentially not something -- it's probably below that $3.5 billion, if you're trying to look for a direction, but north of $3 billion, if I would guess. And in terms of when West Virginia is completed, it will be in 2026. So that's a project that will keep going for some time for us.
是的。簡短地說,這是史蒂夫。 35 億美元的預測是我們對 2024 年的預期。我認為,如果你試圖推斷未來幾年的情況,西維吉尼亞州等一些項目將使我們的資本支出比歷史平均水平高 25%。但很可能,如果你可能不是什麼——如果你試圖尋找一個方向,它可能會低於 35 億美元,但如果我猜的話,它可能會高於 30 億美元。就西維吉尼亞州而言,預計將於 2026 年竣工。因此,這個項目對我們來說將持續一段時間。
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
And then, Curt, your last question on the exploration in the Pacific Northwest. What I would tell you is we're doing just that. Again, it's a market we've been in for 2 decades. Our team in Seattle continues to do an incredible job. And again, we're going to continue to evaluate that market, recognizing the customers that we serve in that market. And where does that most make sense and stay tuned.
然後,柯特,你的最後一個問題是關於太平洋西北地區的勘探。我要告訴你的是我們正在這樣做。再說一次,我們已經涉足這個市場 20 年了。我們在西雅圖的團隊繼續做出令人難以置信的工作。再次,我們將繼續評估該市場,並認識到我們在該市場中服務的客戶。這最有意義的地方在哪裡,請繼續關注。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給萊昂·托帕利安 (Leon Topalian) 發表閉幕詞。
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Leon J. Topalian - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
In closing, I just want to say thank you to our Nucor team members for another great year in 2023. As we begin '24, let's make sure we take care of our most important value, the health, safety and well-being of our Nucor family. Thank you to our customers for the trust you placed in us with each and every order and thank you to our shareholders for the valuable capital that you entrust us with each and every day. Have a great day.
最後,我只想對我們的紐柯團隊成員表示感謝,感謝你們在2023 年又度過了美好的一年。在24 世紀伊始,讓我們確保照顧到我們最重要的價值,即我們員工的健康、安全與福祉。紐柯家族。感謝我們的客戶對我們每一個訂單的信任,感謝我們的股東每天賦予我們的寶貴資本。祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。