Nucor Corp (NUE) 2010 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation second quarter of 2010 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time.

Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan DiMicco, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Christie. Good afternoon and thank you all for joining us for Nucor's second quarter conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team, Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias; Chief Operating Officer of our steelmaking operations, John Ferriola; and Executive Vice Presidents Keith Grass, Ladd Hall, Ham Lott, Mike Parrish, and Joe Stratman. Also joining us is Jim Darsey, who will be succeeded Mike Parish as Executive Vice President of bar products when Mike retires at the end of August. After reviewing our second quarter results, our work growing Nucor's long-term profitability, we will take your questions.

First and most importantly, I want to thank everyone on our team. At Nucor, at our Harris Steel and David J. Joseph operations, for working safely and working together. While economic conditions remain extremely challenging, your talents and can-do attitude are getting the job done so that Nucor continues our long history of emerging from downturns stronger than we entered them. Thank you again and keep up the good work and stay safe.

Our second quarter earnings of $0.29 per share increased 190% over the first quarter earnings of $0.10 per share. They also improved significantly from the year-ago quarter's loss of $0.43 per share, or a positive swing of $0.72 per share year-over-year. Improvement in operating results, excluding LIFO, is even stronger. Second quarter of 2010 results included a LIFO charge of $67 million. That compares to a first quarter LIFO charge of $24 million, and second quarter of 2009 LIFO credit of $125 million. It's also worth noting that our second quarter guidance of a range of between $0.20 to $0.25 per share assumed a LIFO charge of only $47 million versus the $67 million actually incurred. The profit improvement was driven primarily by expanding metal margins at our steel mills. Operating rates at the steel mills in the second quarter were essentially unchanged from the first quarter overall. Higher utilization rates at the beam and plate mills were offset by lower rates at the sheet mills and somewhat at the bar mills.

As expected, our downstream businesses continue to be impacted by severely depressed non-residential construction markets. While markets appear to have bottomed, the recovery appears to be slow. The Nucor team is doing a lot more above and beyond the hard work of managing through today's harsh economic environment. Strength of our business model and our culture enables us to use downturns as opportunities, opportunities to grow Nucor's long-term earnings power. We're doing that by investing in our people and investing in our operations. Investing in our growth. This focus on the long-term is how our Company builds real and sustainable value for our shareholders, teammates and the people who buy and use our products.

Our investments are being built from the growth platforms we have established in steelmaking, upstream raw materials, downstream value-added products and internationally. The list of the initiatives currently under way are many. It tells the story of profitable growth ahead for Nucor. Steelmaking, the Memphis SBQ mill, the Decatur, Alabama, galvanizing facility, the castor plant in Arkansas, the heat-treat facility in North Carolina at our plate mill and the Arizona wire rod and coil rebar mill. And raw materials, our team add David J. Joseph Company is expanding the scrap processing platform and strategically import markers through both acquisition and greenfield opportunities. Our proposed big iron project received its air permit in May from the state of Louisiana. In downstream steel products, our Harris Steel team continues to make bolt-on acquisitions to fill out their rebar fabrication platform. Our joist, deck and metal building businesses are growing their market shares as competitors retrench and, in some cases, abandon the marketplace.

International. Duferdofin-Nucor long projects joint venture in Italy has begun production this year as new merchant bar and rebar mill in Sicily. In April, we consummated our new NuMit joint venture with Mitsui. It is already off to a great start, exceeding the original expectations. NuMit's investment in steel technology has been very timely in terms of increasing our participation in the automotive sector of the flat rolled market. And I, along with John, Joe and Ladd, just returned from a visit last week to Japan with Mitsui's senior management team and also a visit to Mr. Inoue at the Yamato -- our partners at Yamato Kogyo. Our meetings at Mitsui reinforced our already very high confidence that NuMit will be a long and profitable partnership. As always, it's good see our long-time partner Mr Inoue.

The opportunities have the potential at Mitsui to expand the partnership's reach into raw materials, steelmaking and downstream businesses, both domestically and Internationally. We are excited to be teamed with a Company like Mitsui that shares our vision for long-term profitable growth. The breadth of these initiatives highlight some of the key fundamental strengths of Nucor, product diversification and multiple growth platforms. While they are diverse, they share a vital common denominator. They all represent attractive opportunities for profitable growth. Growth that positions Nucor to emerge from the current economic downturn stronger than we entered into it.

Looking at current economic conditions, a long, slow recovery in demand that we expected is unfortunately the reality our country faces today and there are also legitimate concerns that the possibility of a double dip recession, or at minimum a significant slowing of growth. Here we are talking about the economy overall.

Numbers reported earlier this month by the US government Bureau of Labor statistics tells a story that is very troubling. From when the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 was signed into law, in February of last year to the present time, number of unemployed and under employed Americans has increased by 2.4 million, to almost 26 million men and women. And actually understates the magnitude of the ongoing job crisis. Over the same period, the size of the civilian labor force got shrunk by almost 700,000 people. Many of the unemployed have given up hope of finding a job and left the ranks of the civilian labor force. The obvious question is where is the return on the taxpayers' investment of nearly $800 billion, and in total over the last two administrations, over $1.1 trillion. Suppose it's stimulus. That is the bad news. And it is very, very serious situation threatening the speed of economic growth and our nation's future prosperity.

But there is good news. The way forward to a stronger and more sustainable American economy is clear. It is not complicated. You identify the real problems first, then you come up with real solutions. And not more of the short-term sugar high approaches that have failed so miserably thus far. The real problems are the structural imbalances that are dragging our economy deeper and deeper into a hole of little or no growth, an economy fueled by excessive leverage and the Company trade and budget deficits is simply a path to ruin. The real solutions that eliminate the unsustainable balances and also create what the economy requires for sustainable growth, that being jobs, jobs and more jobs and growth in the private sector. Here's how we can do and must do it.

First, we must achieve near energy independence by increasing our domestic supplies of carbon, nuclear and renewable energy. Imported oil counts for about half of our trade deficit. Second, we must enforce rules of street trade. Millions of jobs have been destroyed as a result of our government's failure over several decades to stop the mercantilistic predatory trading practices of our principal trading competitors. Third, you must rebuild our outdated and unsafe infrastructure. The American Society of Civil Engineers estimate this will require an investment of over $2 trillion over the next five years. And the key word here is investment, an investment that will pay back for decades and generations to come. Each component of the three point plan will create jobs, increase tax revenues and improve our trade imbalance and it is long past time to stop talking. It's now time to take the right actions and I can't emphasize more strongly that they're the right actions and get the job done. An America that makes and builds things will create the jobs that will rebuild our economy, the middle class and our country and its economy.

Future course of the economy is undoubtedly beyond our control. But not beyond our influence. One thing is for certain. The Nucor team will meet any and all challenges head-on and turn them into opportunities. That is exactly what our team has been doing for more than four decades. We do this by being realistic, by being futuristic, by being innovative and working together as a team. I will now ask our CFO, Jim Frias, to update you on our financial position and our qualitative guidance for the third quarter. Jim?

Thanks, Dan and good afternoon. Nucor's strong financial position allows us to manage our business with a long-term focus. And that long-term focus is critical to building a sustainable business model that takes care of our shareholders, employees and our customers. Here are some highlights of our financial strength at the close of the second quarter.

Cash and short-term investments totaled $1.1 billion. I will note that this is down by $858 million from the first quarter level and that is primarily for two reasons. In April we invested $315 million in our NuMit joint venture. Additionally, higher scrap and steel selling prices increased our cash invested in working capital by approximately $490 million, reflecting the improved business conditions we experienced in the second quarter. Further to Nucor's strong liquidity, our $1.3 billion unsecured revolving credit facility is undrawn and does not mature until November of 2012. And we have no commercial paper outstanding.

Debt totaled $3.1 billion for debt to capital ratio of 29%. Our net next debt maturities are in 2012 and they total $650 million. 70% of our debt matures in 2017 and beyond. Nucor does not have any meaningful pension or other post retirement employee benefit liabilities. Nucor also holds the highest credit rating of any North American steel maker with a single A rating from both Moody's and Standard and Poor's. As Dan observed, our financial strength allows Nucor to grow stronger during downturns. We do that by investing in our people and investing in our operations to grow our long-term earnings power.

Preoperating and startup costs for new facilities were $43 million for the second quarter of 2010, and $94 million for the first half of this year. These expenses were primarily incurred at the Memphis SB2 mill, the Decatur galvanizing line and the Arkansas castrip plant. Capital spending for the first half of 2010 was $163 million, with $109 million of that total spent in the second quarter alone. For the full year we project approximately $375 million of capital expenditures. Some of the major projects this year are the North Carolina plate mill's heat-treat facility and expansion at our DRI plant located in Trinidad. In the short-term as we enter the third quarter, there is a slowdown being experienced across all product lines. It appears that the US and global economies have recently entered a new period of uncertainty. The most challenging markets remain construction, both residential and non-residential. We will again follow our practice of providing quantitative guidance in the final month of the quarter.

In the long-term, we are very optimistic about Nucor's prospects. We believe in the American people and have confidence that they will drive our elected officials of both political parties to deal with our nation's unsustainable trade and budget deficits. Those policy changes will unleash and revitalize the American economy in the way that creates real jobs, increases the demand for steel products and brings a multitude of sustainable benefits to all Americans, and what is good for America is good for Nucor. In summary, Nucor is in a position of strength to build on our Company's long tradition of being effective stewards of our shareholders valuable capital. We thank you for your interest in Nucor. Dan?

I will now ask John Ferriola to report on our steelmaking and raw material businesses. John?

Thanks, Dan. Good afternoon. Let me begin by thanking all team members at our Nucor steel mills and our David J Joseph and new iron raw material operations for your outstanding commitment to working safely and taking care of our customers. Your dedication and talents, particularly in tough markets like these, are Nucor's biggest competitive advantage. And I will again emphasize the importance of everyone staying focused on safety. We want all of our teammates, Nucor's most valuable assets, to be around to enjoy the benefits from their hard work. I want to particularly thank the raw mill operating and maintenance teams at our Kankakee, Illinois bar mill for working three years without a recordable accident and our DJ Joseph scrap processing team at our New Port, Kentucky facility for working two years accident-free. Thank you. Please keep it going.

Second quarter total steel mill shipments of 4.6 million tons increased 53% over 2009's second quarter, and decreased 2% from first quarter of 2010. While overall shipments decreased modestly in this year's second quarter compared to the first quarter, our plate and beam mills both enjoyed volume gains on a linked quarter basis. We believe this performance proves Nucor's product diversification is one of our Company's greatest strengths. In fact, our beam mills ran at a capacity utilization rate exceeding 60% in this year's second quarter. That is clearly an outstanding accomplishment in today's severely depressed non-residential construction markets. Our new coil model and Berkeley beam teams continue to reap the rewards that come from their excellence and customer service, and continual focus on new product development.

In the second quarter, Nucor Yamato began producing a new H-piling section known at HP16. This is the largest H-piling section offered in the North American market. And it provides yet another alternative solution to meet the foundation piling needs of our customers. The new product ran at 240 tons per hour and exceeded a 92% yield in its very first full production campaign, which makes its comparable to our best running sections on that mill. The HP16 is yet another outstanding achievement in new product development from Nucor Yamato, led by our old shop supervisor, [Ed Cable], our entire roll shop, raw mill and finishing teammates. And by the way, the initial production of this material will be going to job sites in and around New Orleans for the ongoing rebuild and reinforcing of the Mississippi River levee system. I want to congratulate and thank all men and women of Nucor's beam mill group for a job well done. Thank you. Keep it going.

As Dan mentioned, our second quarter earnings performance was highlighted by improved metal margins at our steel mills. The spread between our mill selling prices and our iron units usage cost increased by $36 per ton in the second quarter, to $361 per ton. While the cost of scrap and scrap substitutes increased by $55 per ton, margins actually improved significantly as a result of a $91 per ton increase in the average mill selling prices. This is evidence of the excellent work done by our steel mill and David J Joseph teams in managing their businesses through the sharp spike in metallics pricing experienced earlier this year. And it is another data point in a long-term record of Nucor's steelmaking operations experiencing higher profit in periods of rising scrap and other real raw material costs. I believe this is an important historical relationship that investors should understand when studying our Company and our industry.

Second quarter and first half results also benefited from the performance of our raw material businesses. Our David J Joseph team capitalized on the strength in ferrous and non-ferrous scrap markets experienced through the month of May and in those item metallic markets, increased production of DRI by our new iron team enhanced the profitability of our steel mill assets in this year's first half. Implementation of our raw material strategy took a big step forward with receipt in May of the environmental permit in Louisiana for our potential big iron project. I will reiterate that we have not made a decision on big iron yet. The biggest hurdle to moving forward in the United States is this project remains the risk of a cap and trade system that places an unfair burden on domestic steel makers relative to foreign competitors not facing similar restrictions and costs. However, I will emphasize that we do remain committed to increasing our control over low cost supplies of high quality scrap substitutes.

Our new iron teams' continued strong performance is evidence of Nucor's ability to successfully operate a high quality scrap substitute production facility. In the short three and-a-half years our team has operated the Trinidad direct reduced iron plant, they have gone from being neophytes to being experts in producing DRI. Today, new iron operates at world class levels, 115 metric tons per hour with the metalization rate of 96%, and over 3% bar. This high quality has allowed us to dramatically increase our percentage of DRI in our iron units mix. And it gives us more options on the levels of prime scrap and pig iron used in the mix, allowing us to optimize the cost of iron units used in our steelmaking process.

I would also like to update you on the continued success our steel mills are achieving in the export market. Nucor is uniquely positioned among US steel producers to capitalize on stronger economic recoveries being experienced in other regions of the world. Over 60% of our steel production capacity is located on or has access to deepwater. First half 2010 exports were 1 million tons, running at about 500,000 tons for both quarters. That volume represents almost 11% of our total steel mill shipments. And it is a 53% increase over the year-ago level.

Looking at current market conditions, demand is slowing in most markets. At this point, it is difficult to determine how much of this trend is just seasonal, and how much is the result of the challenges facing the overall economy. Additionally, there has been a slight increase in service center inventories. For June, months of supply for all products on a seasonally adjusted basis were 2.5 months. That is up from 2.4 months in May. But below the 2.6 month level in June of last year. Our long-held view has been that the economic recovery will be uneven, with continued exposure to downside risk.

Whatever direction the economy and the steel markets take the coming months, we will outperform and taking care of our customers and that includes our employees, our shareholders, and the people who buy and use our products. We will do that by capitalizing on our substantial competitive strengths which include our highly flexible production and customer service capability, our diversified product portfolio, and most importantly, the Nucor's teams' can do attitude and high energy level. Here is an excellent recent example of exactly what I'm talking about.

The Nucor teams' unrivaled commitment to taking care of our customers. In mid June, flooding on the Elkhorn River caused a collapse of the railroad bridge that provided service to our bar mill in Norfolk, Nebraska. It is the only route for the railroad into our mill. Prior to the collapse, about 50% of Nucor steel Nebraska's customer shipments were typically by rail. So how did our Nebraska team respond? They swung into action immediately, to ensure that our customers did not experience any adverse impact on their business as a result of the mill no longer having direct rail service. Within days, our Nebraska team worked with the railroad and one of our large customers, King Steel, to set up trans loading sites south of the river. They opened up an additional gate at the mill to receive trucks. They expanded shipping hours at the mill. They worked with the county to close the road in front of our facility to through traffic in order to allow the safe and efficient movement of trucks in and out of the mill. And our David J Joseph teammates working with one of our great suppliers, Alta Steel, set up a trans load site at their scrap yard in Council Bluffs, Iowa, to enable the off-loading of scrap from rail cars, onto trucks, ensuring a continuous flow of scrap into our mill.

Bottom line, June shipments at our Nebraska bar mill exceeded our team's original projection by 5%. That is the Nucor can do attitude in action and it is getting the job done. Way to go Nucor steel Nebraska team. Thank you to all involved for taking care of our customers and for doing it safely.

I want to again thank all members of our Nucor steel mill, David J Joseph and new iron teams for your hard and extremely productive work and as always, please stay focused on priority number one, working safely. Dan, before I turn this back over to you, I want to correct one statistic. Our production capacity at new iron is 215 metric tons per hour. I misspoke and said 115 metric tons per hour.

Thank you, John. At this point I would like to ask Ham Lott to update us on Nucor's fabricated construction products businesses. Ham?

Thanks, Dan. Demand for fabricated construction products remained extremely weak in the second quarter of 2010. However, our second quarter shipments for each of our major products did increase from the year-ago quarter. Comparing second quarter 2010 sales tons with the year-ago period, metal buildings increased 88%. Steel deck and joists both increased 11%. And fabricated rebar increased 4%. As evidenced by their volume gain, our preengineered metal building teams have done an excellent job of gaining market share. They have also been able to secure price increases. This is the strongest of our fabricated construction products markets.

After increasing market share last year, and increasing prices in the first quarter of this year, our Vulcraft/Verco group is now encountering stronger competition. The steel joist and deck markets are still quite weak. Rebar is the most competitive of our fabricated construction product markets. We have been unable to significantly increase our prices. Nucor has over four decades of experience of managing through down cycles and fabricated construction product markets. We always view cyclical downturns as opportunities to grow stronger and build long-term earnings power. We achieve that by focusing all of our energy on taking care of our customers with product quality and service they expect. I would like to add to John's story about Nebraska.

Vulcraft is located near that river. The joist plant, the deck plant and the office were flooded as was the cold finish plant. Within several days all of the plants were operational and a majority of the office personnel were relocated to nearby facilities. It was a tremendous feat that was only doable by extremely dedicated Nucor employees and managers. I want to say thank you and keep up the good work and continue your strong focus and performance on safety to all of our team members at Harris Steel, New Con Steel, Nucor Buildings group, and Verco and Vulcraft.

Thank you. Mike Parish, our Executive Vice President leading Nucor's bar products group announced his plans to retire at the end of August. Throughout this 35 year career with our Company, Mike has been an exceptional leader. He has made outstanding contributions to both Nucor's strong record of profitable growth and Nucor's unique culture. Under Mike's leadership, our bar products group more than doubled in size to a current finished steel shipment capacity exceeding 9 million tons annually. And with his team's very successful work in optimizing existing operations and completing strategic acquisitions, the growth in earnings power of the bar products group has been even greater.

While he may be retiring, Mike will forever be a member of the Nucor family. All of us are thankful for his leadership. And everyone in our team joins Mike -- joins me in wishing Mike and his lovely wife Chris all the best as they enjoy the well-deserved fruits of the career at Nucor. Mike's retirement and promotion of Jim Darsey to Executive Vice President of bar mill products results in the thoughtful and orderly succession planning that has been a top strategic initiative of our Company over the last 10 years. This work positions our Company for continued profitable growth. Before continuing, I'd like to ask Mike to add a few thoughts.

Thanks, Dan. Appreciate the opportunity. I just want to say thanks to our -- all our teammates for everything they've done throughout my 35-year career and we were joking earlier that when I started many of you weren't even born yet and that kind of hurts. But I just really -- if you look at it, you're only as good as the people you work with and in that 35 years, I just had so many great teammates and colleagues to work with and I just want everybody to know how much I appreciate that and I know Dan always says this, I don't want to steal any thunder, but when you look at the team we have, the future of Nucor, definitely you can see that the best years for Nucor are definitely ahead of us and just want to say thanks to everybody for everything and good luck.

Thank you, Mike. Jim Darsey, who will be stepping in to Mike's formidable shoes, is a proven Nucor leader. He has a strong record of success in managing both steel mill and downstream products divisions over his 31 year Nucor career. Jim and his team are well prepared to continue to building long-term profitable growth at Nucor's bar products businesses.

As stated earlier, the Nucor team has been meeting all challenges head on and successfully for more than four decades. We are a Company borne out of near bankruptcy in the 1960s and between 1980 and 2008 we grew our revenue from $500 million to $23 billion. This was all accomplished while the overall domestic steel industry was shrinking by 30%. Our growth opportunities are greater than ever through a broad platform in steelmaking, raw materials, downstream fabricated products and steel processing, both here and globally. We pay a strong dividend and have a strong balance sheet. And our best is yet to come. We would now be happy to take your questions.

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We'll go to our first question from Kuni Chen with Banc of America. Your line is open.

Hi. Good afternoon, everybody.

Good afternoon, Kuni.

I guess just first off, if you look at the industry operating rates, first quarter versus second quarter, again, for the whole industry went from 68% to roughly 73%. So can you give us a little bit more color on why we saw your operating rate actually decline relative to that? Can you comment on market share? Is this really more a function of competitive dynamics or maybe more operational issues?

I'm going to take a hard look here, Mr Greg Lucas, make sure I say this properly. If you take a look at the average operating utilization rate for Nucor over the first six months, it was slightly above that of the industry as a whole. In the second quarter, we did see a slight fall off versus first quarter and I think that had a lot to do with some of the dynamics taking place in the flat roll business. John, you have any further thoughts on that?

Well, the flat rolled business did weaken at the end of the quarter and that had an impact on the utilization rates. If you look at the comparison to Q2 versus Q1 on utilization, looking at a very small decline, just about 1.5%.

And I think, Kuni, what we would like you to focus on is the fact that selling prices were higher than most people anticipated. Profitability was three times what it was in the first quarter. So there may have been a little method to that madness.

Okay. That makes sense. I guess just as one quick follow-on then I'll turn it over. Can you comment on LIFO in the second quarter, looking at somewhat lower production and lower scrap prices going forward here, should we also be expecting a much more modest LIFO impact in the back half?

First off, what we see in terms of actual production and order entry and shipments in the second half is yet to be determined. We were very careful to indicate our concern over where things are at right now. But that doesn't necessarily translate itself into lower shipments and lower production in the second half versus the first half. Having said that, Jim, would you like to follow up on the LIFO?

Each quarter when we book LIFO we're doing it based on where we're expecting to finish the year at. It includes estimates based on year end. Our year-to-date LIFO expense is $91 million. So you could expect that based on what we see today, we think we're going to have another $91 million the second half of the year. You can split that evenly across the quarters. The real numbers are probably different than that, but that's what we see today.

One point do you revisit the LIFO assumption?

Every quarter as we look at our inventory positions and the value and what we see in the scrap market.

Final true-up is at the end of the year. Next question, please.

Our next question comes from the line of Luke Folta with Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Hi. Good afternoon.

Good afternoon, Luke.

Quick question. Just so far on what we're seeing in July, can you give us a feel for what utilization rates are at some of the mills and also maybe just the order book over the last week or so, see any pick-up as it relates to August orders?

We don't give week to week utilization rate information. We do it on a quarterly basis. And there's no doubt that on the flat rolled side, as John mentioned, utilization rates have dropped in July, but that remains to be seen where that will shake out for the entire quarter. John?

The only thing I would add to that is when you look quarter to quarter, looking at individual products, we did see some decline on flat roll. Remember, we saw a significant increase in two of our product lines, beam and plate.

Would you expect that increase to sort of continue through the remainder of the year as far as on the long product side?

Certainly on the long products side we've hit bottom in our estimation. While the markets for non-residential and residential still appear to be bouncing along bottoms, we are looking for some increased opportunities if truly we do see some stimulus impact in the second half of the year, which a lot of people have commented on both in Washington and in the industry. But a lot of us are from Missouri and the way we look at things, so we're still waiting for the markets to show us that.

Just lastly, your NuMit joint venture, some of the reporting format, are those tons getting booked into the flat rolled segment or in the other segment, as far as how you report that?

That's not a consolidated subsidiary so we don't include their tons.

All right. Great. Thanks.

Next question.

Our next question comes from Michael Gambardella of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone.

Good afternoon, Michael.

I have a question on the blast furnace project. What is the current estimate of the capital cost of that project?

$2 billion, not counting any incentives from the state.

Okay. Have you looked at the potential alternative instead of building that of buying Sparrow's Point, which has one of the largest furnace on a deepwater port and also would take out 3.5 tons of capacity in the industry as well?

Certainly making a very good point, Michael, about the Sparrow's Point facility in terms of it being on the deepwater port, pointed out a couple of the positives. There are a host of negatives as well and while we have looked at that, I will tell you over the years we have looked at that, but as you know, it's presented itself on numerous occasions, we don't believe that would be the best way to go. If we are to move forward as we plan on with an iron project in Louisiana.

I think that was -- the whole plant was acquired in a much better market, somewhere around 800, wasn't it?

$800 million? Is that what you're saying?

Yes, yes.

I don't really recall. I'll take your word at that. As I said, there are a host of issues that would make us be very concerned and wary of actually being involved in an acquisition of that asset. John?

Just add that Michael it really wouldn't change the market dynamic because we would continue to operate the mill on flats that they would bring in so you really wouldn't be changing the market dynamic and getting much of a gain from that perspective.

I was assuming you would just run the blast furnace and shut down everything else.

Well, you're making an assumption that the current owners would sell the entire thing as opposed to just the blast furnace.

No, sell the whole thing and you just run the blast furnace operations.

We're not aware of that being the case. So I don't want to get into speculating.

Okay. Thank you.

You're welcome, Michael.

And our next question comes from Chris Olin with Cleveland Research. Your line is open.

Maybe I missed it, but I was hoping you could provide us some thoughts on where you see scrap going over the next couple months?

I don't think you missed it because I don't think we said anything. But I'm looking at Mr Keith Grass as I speak and Keith is looking at me and I'll let him do his speaking on that.

Certainly we've seen the downward trend during the course of Q2 and the general sense we probably feel as though things have stabilized, or to a degree bottomed. A couple of factors that led into that is certainly throughout our scrap processing facilities, and I would imagine this indicative around the country, scrap flows into the facilities have dropped off by about 25% to 30%. So we're seeing a little bit less flow into the yards during the course of the past few weeks. We've seen an increase in the inquiries coming from the export market. They have been absent for 30 to 45 days in a more aggressive way. They have reentered to a degree and from the beginning of the quarter to now, we've sort of seen a reversal in the dollar where it started to move a little bit lower. If the dollar moves low we always see scrap prices move inverse proportion to that. So we start to see that strengthen. I don't see a run-away bull market. Just seems to be a stabilization around this range and possible strengthening as we look out the next 60 to 90 days.

One equipment follow-up for Ham. One of the big concerns out there is a lot of these bonds are failing and while stimulus is getting better maybe we start to lose the core public demand. I was just wondering if Vulcraft has seen anything different in terms of some of these steady public projects that have been on the books for awhile. Any thoughts on if that's getting weaker or you're seeing anything different.

Vulcraft is not very involved in public projects. That's really not our bread and butter and hasn't been the industry's bread and butter. That's not an area to look at for us.

Okay. Thank you.

And our next question comes from Wayne Atwell from Casimir Capital. Your line is open.

Good afternoon. I would like to congratulate you for successfully dealing with this really tough economic environment.

Thank you.

Can you pass on some thoughts in terms of how much you might ship into the export market, how much of your share you might send? Probably some limitations you wouldn't want at this point domestic customers. On the other hand if you can't sell it here, you might want to sell it over there. What kind of extent of your export exposure, do you think?

First off, we would not be taking on a commitment to export that would jeopardize our domestic customers, period, end of story. In today's environment, it would have to be very unusual circumstances to put us in that situation. With the utilizations running at the levels they're running at. As far as the rest of your question, Dan, do you have any thoughts on that?

11% is what we have exported. That's the rate thus far this year. We certainly -- our plans would be to work to continue to do that as the opportunities present. It may be a little bit less opportunity to export today than there has been because overall the dollar has strengthened, even though there's some weakness as Keith mentioned showing up lately. But that's usually more influenced by the actual demand and participation of other countries and the export market and what pricing levels they do it at. But starting at the beginning of this year, we were somewhat tentative about how much we would be able to do export and we've surprised ourselves to be able to export at those kind of levels. So hopefully we'll be able to continue that. John?

I would add to that, Dan, product acceptance. Our product has gained great acceptance, particularly in the South American markets. One of the products we've been very successful in the South American market is the castrip product. That's offsetting the impact of the dollar. We have the potential to maintain the same level of exports because of the products, particularly the value added products that we brought into the South American market and castrip we imported to our Company.

A quick follow-up. I assume a lot of this went to Europe. Is some of it going to Latin America?

The vast majority of it goes -- it makes sense. If you look at the location of our mills, anywhere south, South America, Costa Rica, Central America, anywhere in Latin America. We do well in Mexico and also in Canada. But not much really into the European market at all in the first half of this year.

Thank you.

I would add one further thing. One of the things that's supporting our continued success export wise is our customers that have operations, particularly in South America, Brazil, have been very active in soliciting our support in those markets and Mexico as well, and we've been able to accomplish that.

Dan, one more point, if I may. And that's relative to Mexico, our partnership with the Steel Tech acquisition has opened up. As you know, they have six operations in Mexico and working with them and working on our plans to open up our processing center in Mexico will open up a lot of opportunity for our products in the Mexican market.

Great point, John. Next question.

And our next question comes from David Gagliano with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Sorry if I --

Hi, David.

Hi, how are you?

Good. Could be better, but we're good.

Was wondering if you could explain the main drivers behind the relatively sharp sequential increases in both structurals and plate volumes in the second quarter. Was it market share, demand, something else? And also, how should we be thinking about those volumes for both plate structurals in Q3.

There are certain markets that have benefited both of those product lines. On the plate side, certainly a lot of energy business has helped us out there, everything from wind farms to other forms of energy activity. I'll ask Joe to comment a little bit more on that in a second. And on the beam side, keep in mind our beam operations also run a lot of piling products. You have a very good, strong diversification of products on those two mills, even outside of wide flange and H-piling and so those products, like the new HP16 have added to our ability to keep those plants running at higher utilization levels. And we've been very successful in a number of major piling projects. Joe?

Yes, Dan. I think you've really summarized it very well. The diversity and product range of our structural business for piling in particular I think is one of the major factors that accounts for the increase in the beam business and the relative, given the economy, the relative strength of the structural business. On the plate side, you're right, it's energy, wind tower. We have seen a slight pick-up year-over-year in the heavy equipment agricultural construction equipment, manufacturers business, which has been, while not good by historical standards, better than last year. And also we've seen just a little bit of pick-up into our bridge work. We did a lot of product development over the last eight months to one year at the plate mills and now have a better product offering for bridge fabricators. So again, I think it's product diversity in weak markets, but I think that product diversity has brought us a consistency in those two businesses that we might not have had a few years back.

Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, how should we be thinking about the start-up costs moving forward? Should they remain around that $40 million level? I'm assuming they should decline. And if so, when and sort of what magnitude of decline should we be expecting the next few quarters?

Well, we should continue to see a decline in the third and fourth quarters from where things are today. I think we're estimating somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million to $40 million start-up costs in the third quarter.

The estimate we currently have is about $40 million, Dan, for the fourth quarter. Or third quarter, excuse me.

Okay. And then the last question, back on the LIFO issue again. If -- this is a tough one, I know, but for example if scrap prices just stay flat for the rest of the quarter, what should we expect the LIFO charge to be in Q3? Would it still be around that $45 million range you alluded to earlier.

It would be $45 million if the assumptions we used at the end of June are the same assumptions we use at the end of September. That will be based on what our view is at that point in time. Right now, I would use that as my estimate.

Okay. All right. Fair enough. Thanks very much.

And our next question comes from Michelle Applebaum with Steel Market Intelligence. Your line is open.

Hi.

Good afternoon, Michelle.

Hi. I have a question about acquisitions. Both you and Dave Hannah have said consistently that M&A would be frozen for a while from September of 2008 on and then probably 18 months or so you would see more activity and I think your Steel Tech and your two scrap acquisitions and all that, we have seen more activity. And today Dave was more bullish about acquisitions than I've seen him for two years now. And I was wondering what your thoughts were about that.

Well, first of all, Dave has got tremendous track record on that so I certainly would support what he's saying from the timing standpoint. We both pretty much, as you said, pointed out 18 months ago that it would be 18 months to two years before we started to see any significant indication of M&A activity. We still believe that. It may stretch a little bit further than that now. But as you pointed out, we've already done some M&A activity and it's all a question of not only the opportunities that might be out there, but the willingness of the participants to join in those opportunities. And we still do expect to see an improvement from that standpoint going forward. But I wouldn't want to pinpoint exactly when I thought that would happen because that's a big unknown. But yes, the odds of that happening going forward from 18 months on is certainly greater than they have been for the past 18 months.

And what about overseas. You've been at the edge of doing a bunch of things overseas. You started one when this mess happened and given things going on in Europe I was wondering if there would be more acquisitions and what kind of things would you be looking for, where are you looking?

First off, we've never stopped looking. We've never stopped talking. We've actually increased the number of folks that we have been talking to. Some things have fallen off the radar. Some things have been added on. It's a continual process. The types of things that we would be looking at are no different today than they would have been prior to the collapse in October of 2008 and very consistent with our overall strategy that we've outlined very clearly in terms of the steelmaking operations, possibly some downstream operations as well, if they were to avail themselves.

As we mentioned already, we have a start-up of the new bar mill in Italy and that's gone well. And so it's -- Europe right now is probably a little bit more unsettled than we would like, but we still have active conversations going on as well as we do in other places of the world.

Can I ask another one?

Sure.

Your equity line, which thank you for putting that in your releases now, showed a really nice uptick from the prior quarter. You lost $18.4 million, down to $7.4 million. And I thought wow, that's Italy and then I remembered that's probably Steel Tech also, right?

Which line are you referring to, Michelle?

Equity and losses of unconsolidated affiliates. Is that where Steel Tech is showing up? Is that why we saw an improvement?

That's where Steel Tech is and that's also where [dufertifin] is.

Can we infer from that, it's a 60% improvement, that Steel Tech was profitable accretive?

We would rather not get that specific, but there was improvement at dufertifin.

There was improvement?

Yes.

You're not even giving me segments so you can't blame me for asking.

Don't blame you for asking at all. You got more than we usually give.

Thank you so much.

And our next question comes from Dave Martin with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Yes, thank you. I believe you mentioned capital spending for a Trinidad expansion. Just wondering if you could give us a few more details on that as far as dollars to be spent, scale of the expansion, and the timing.

Certainly. Ladd?

Sure. Going to spend somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 some million dollars, low 20s, we anticipate somewhere between a 10% and a 12% increase in the productivity of that plant.

And that's become effective next year?

That should go in by the first quarter of next year and be effective immediately, as soon as we put it in.

Okay. And then secondly, you had me curious on castrip and the export market. What percent of your exports are castrip volume and what types of customer applications are they being utilized for?

I'll take that one. It's a pretty small percentage of our total exports. If I had to put a number to it, I'd put it somewhere around 10% or 15% of the total exports and it's going to a myriad of applications. Pipe and tube is a big application for it, but frankly it's been used in many, many applications, construction markets, we've done a lot of roofing with it over there. That's a popular application for it in South America. So, yes, basically construction applications, rerolling applications and construction and pipe and tube.

Okay. Thanks for the color.

And our next question comes from Timna Tanners with UBS. Your line is open.

Hi, good afternoon. Hope you're all doing well.

Hello, Timna.

Wanted to actually drill back down to the volumes and ask about bars because I noticed that not just a sequential, but a year-over-year decline. So was wondering if you have a little more color on that, especially given I thought we had some ramp-up in Arizona and maybe year-over-year in the Memphis mill, so if you could elaborate on that.

As it's been very clear in the construction markets overall, things are worse this year than they were last year. And that's because the backlogs that were present in the system have now all been worked off. So that hasn't had a general impact on the bottoming that's taken place, and has taken place in our long products businesses in 2010. Mike, I don't know if you have anything you would like to add.

Just in a simple way to look at it, going from rebar to merchant bar to SBQ, right now the SBQ would be our strongest products that we have right now. The automotive business and the large manufacturing goods and those kind of things are doing pretty well, but as you go down and get more in the construction business, that would be more difficult. Our Kingman operation is in the start-up mode and probably by the end of the year they'll be running pretty consistently by then.

Okay. Really helpful. Just wanted to ask, I think we're getting closer to the startup of the [tisoncrep] mill and wanted to get your latest thoughts on how that might impact you. You probably started to sense them a little more in the market already and wanted to get your thoughts.

Listen, bringing on more capacity in a market that is running at significantly under 100% utilization. And so it's going to affect the entire flat rolled business across the entire north, south, central, east marketplace, won't just affect Nucor by any means.

Right.

And it will be no doubt negative impact unless we see a significant upturn in the flat rolled market and customer group and how much of an impact will depend on how successful they are getting started and when they say they are going to get started and how they run once they get going and none of that's yet happened.

Thanks very much.

Next question comes from Mark Parr with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Thanks very much. Good afternoon.

Good afternoon, Mark.

Just two quick questions. One, would like to get an update on the pig iron market in terms of what sort of pricing that you're seeing. And also, the sense of the supply chain, whether Brazil seems to be more engaged in restarting more capacity or the other way around. And then secondly, would just like an update on how the commissioning of the 20-inch rounds is going in Memphis and where you see the utilization of that operation potentially moving into next year.

Okay. Let's talk pig iron first in Brazil.

In terms of the production, it's pretty much stabilized at this point. Pricing was up. It's down a little bit. Today it's probably in the range of about around (Inaudible) 420 to 440 per ton. But that's enough to keep them going delivered. 420 to 440, delivered to Nola and that's enough, that pricing's substantial enough to keep the operations in Brazil going. We see pretty much stabilized operations at this point. It's also a function of what happens to iron ore costs for them going forward. That could change that situation.

Okay.

The last thing that I read in the press on this was that there was, as John mentioned, a little bit of softening on prices and how far that maintains itself, exactly how things play out globally in the steel markets. Softening continues to take place in China if any elsewhere, but Mike, do you have anything you would like to add about the Memphis situation.

The Memphis mill, the melt shop, all the operations are fully operational. The quality has been very excellent. What we're working on now is the consistent productivity and efficiency. We continue to supply trials and production volumes to Ford shops. The ring rollers, seamless tube manufacturers and we've shipped product, talk about exporting to India, Germany, Spain, Italy, Brazil, Korea, Mexico, as well as obviously domestic. We've gotten specific orders directly from Caterpillar and companies like that. And we continue to work with the camshaft manufacturers, gearing, and crank shafts and the customers continually say they love the quality of the product and the way that operation is going. So we just need to get more consistent on the productivity.

That's great. And Mike, I just want to say congratulations on a great career and best wishes to you in the your retirement.

Thanks a lot, Mark. Appreciate it.

Thank you, Mark.

And our next question comes from Mark Liinamaa with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hello, all.

Good afternoon.

Wondering, comment a little bit on kind of the pricing dynamic or the supply, demand dynamic that you're seeing in the market and by that the caution -- the level of caution that the service centers maybe are creating, whether as an industry you're seeing signs of the mills kind of chasing volume down the price curve. Thanks.

John, do you want to jump on that?

Yes. We see a difference between what we would call apparent demand and real demand and that's impacting the service centers' behavior. Right now we feel that true demand, real demand is stronger than apparent demand. That's a function of a lot of things, one of which is the service centers, due to the uncertainty, holding back on their purchases and also a function of the integrated mills being late on some of their deliveries and causing some issues as a result of that, finally catching up on their deliveries.

Okay. And so would you characterize it as -- sometimes the term discipline gets overused, but would you think it's been so far rational response from the supply side and would you agree with the sentiment that we're approaching a bottom in fundamentals?

No, we wouldn't -- we're not going to comment on that. Again, I would go back to the initial statement that you have to look at both apparent demand and real demand and as we talk with our customers, as we continuously meet and communicate with our customers, they tell us that although the demand is certainly down 20% to 30% from the high that they've seen in 2008, their demand, real demand for their products has been pretty consistent throughout last year and the first half of this year.

We could add to that the fact that when they fall in raw material pricing market would not be unusual at all for the service centers to be waiting to see where things settle out before they do any buying that would bring their apparent demand back up to real demand as well. And we do think that that's going on based upon conversations we've had with numerous customers. The other aspect is that because some of the mills were behind on deliveries, they probably brought on a little bit more capacity sooner than they might have normally. We may see some of that continue or not continue depending upon where the market supports the production activity. And so it's a combination of all those things.

Thanks. Good luck.

And our next question is a follow-up from Michelle Applebaum with Steel Market Intelligence. Your line is open.

Hi. I had a question for you about Louisiana. Is it confirmed if you build something in Louisiana that that something will be a blast furnace, or are there other types of ironmaking that you might contemplate in Louisiana that might be less expensive?

First off, one of the big things that, as John mentioned, that will impact the decision on what gets built there and when has to do with the way this whole cap and tax thing shakes out in Washington. And whether we do it in Louisiana or we do it someplace else. But we have never stopped looking at alternative forms of technology, whether it be high smelt or -- because of the significant progress we made in the high quality DRI we're producing, whether it would be a DRI plant and so at this point in time we have not finalized exactly what technology would be put there and some of it may be determined by exactly what we see happening in Washington, which we hope is nothing.

Okay. Any color on time frame?

No. You can tell us what they're going to do in Washington and when, we'll give you a time frame.

Yes, right. Can I ask another question?

I can tell you this. We will do something.

You will do something in Louisiana or you will do something.

We'll do something and if we can, we will do it in Louisiana.

Can I ask another question?

Sure.

Okay. John, I'm curious, there's been some noise in the press, I'm sure you know what I'm talking about without naming names about one of your integrated competitors either walking away or being asked to walk away, but terminating a relationship with a major OEM over an issue of surcharges or not surcharges. You know what I'm talking about there. I was curious to know if Nucor had any opportunity, given that that's going on, to expand some market share with this customer? If you've seen any benefit from that?

We always are working to expand our business with our OEM customers and we've been continuously improving our position with them in all forms of OEMs as a result of our continuously moving up the value chain and continuously improving our quality. Without getting into any specific customers I will say that overall our business with OEMs has been growing, it's grown as a result of our service, our quality, our on-time delivery and also a function of programs that we're offering that enable them to provide stabilized price in our scrap swap programs that have been very successful with OEM customers.

Okay. Is it fair to say that the volatility of scrap is becoming less and less a competitive disadvantage for Nucor?

Let's just leave it at this. Iron ore pricing moving towards a quarterly pricing mode from an annual pricing mode, the answer is yes. And probably the same holds true for coking coal and -- but they're not quite yet at a monthly pricing level, which is where scrap has been forever.

I think --

Certainly has improved the dynamics of our competitive position, no doubt about it.

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Thank you.

And that concludes our question-and-answer session for today. I now turn the call back to Mr DiMicco for any closing remarks.

Thank you, Christie. I would like to thank all of you who have asked questions on the call and the team for supporting our second quarter performance both here in Charlotte and around the Company and also for the investment community for supporting Nucor. You will not be disappointed. Thank you all very much.

That concludes our call for today. Thank you for your participation.