Northern Trust Corp (NTRSO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by. Good day and welcome to the Northern Trust Corporation fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Childe, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請稍候。大家好，歡迎參加北方信託公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Jennifer Childe。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Northern Trust Corporation's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me on our call this morning is Michael O'Grady, our Chairman and CEO; Dave Fox, our Chief Financial Officer; John Landers, our Controller; and Trace Stegeman from our Investor Relations team.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加北方信託公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼首席執行官邁克爾·奧格雷迪 (Michael O'Grady)；我們的首席財務官戴夫·福克斯 (Dave Fox)；我們的控制員約翰·蘭德斯 (John Landers)；以及我們投資者關係團隊的 Trace Stegeman。

Our fourth quarter earnings press release and financial trends report are both available on our website at northerntrust.com. Also on our website, you will find our quarterly earnings review presentation which we will use to guide today's conference call. This January 23 call is being webcast live on northerntrust.com. The only authorized rebroadcast of this call is the replay that will be made available on our website through February 23.

我們的第四季收益新聞稿和財務趨勢報告均可在我們的網站 northerntrust.com 上查閱。您還可以在我們的網站上找到我們的季度收益審查報告，我們將用它來指導今天的電話會議。1 月 23 日的電話會議將在 northerntrust.com 上進行網路直播。這次通話的唯一授權重播是將於 2 月 23 日之前在我們的網站上提供的重播。

Northern Trust disclaims any continuing accuracy of the information provided in this call after today. Please refer to our Safe Harbor Statement regarding forward-looking statements in the back of the accompanying presentation which will apply to our commentary on this call. During today's question-and-answer session, please limit your initial query to one question and one related follow up. This will allow us to move through the queue and enable as many people as possible the opportunity to ask questions as time permits.

北方信託公司否認今天之後本次電話會議中提供的資訊將繼續保持準確性。請參閱隨附簡報後面有關前瞻性陳述的安全港聲明，該聲明將適用於我們對本次電話會議的評論。在今天的問答環節中，請將您的初始疑問限制為一個問題和一個相關的後續問題。這將使我們能夠順利通過隊列，並讓盡可能多的人有機會在時間允許的情況下提問。

Thank you again for joining us. Let me turn the call over to Mike O'Grady.

再次感謝您的參與。讓我把電話轉給麥克·奧格雷迪。

Thank you, Jennifer. Let me join welcoming you to our fourth quarter. 2024 earnings call. Our fourth quarter results cap off a solid year of progress executing against our strategic priorities. Relative to the prior year, fourth quarter trust fees were up 12% and net interest income grew 15%. Excluding notables in the prior year, revenue was up 13% and earnings per share grew by more than 50%. Importantly, we generated positive trust fee and total operating leverage for the second consecutive quarter while continuing to make significant investments in our business and infrastructure.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。讓我和大家一起歡迎你們來到我們的第四季。 2024 年收益電話會議。我們的第四季業績為我們在執行策略重點方面取得的堅實進展畫上了圓滿的句號。與前一年相比，第四季信託費用上漲了 12%，淨利息收入上漲了 15%。不計上一年的重大事件，營收成長了 13%，每股收益成長了 50% 以上。重要的是，我們連續第二個季度產生了正的信託費用和總營業槓桿，同時繼續對我們的業務和基礎設施進行大量投資。

For the full year excluding notables, revenue was up 8% and we generated positive trust fee operating leverage and total operating leverage in excess of two points, which translated into EPS growth of 24%. We also returned more than $400 million to shareholders in the fourth quarter and $1.5 billion for the full year reflecting a five-year high. Our results benefited from strong market performance but also reflect continued progress implementing our One Northern Trust strategy.

全年（不包括重要客戶）收入成長了 8%，我們產生了超過兩個百分點的正信託費用營運槓桿和總營運槓桿，轉化為每股盈餘成長了 24%。我們也在第四季向股東返還了超過 4 億美元，全年返還了 15 億美元，創下了五年來的最高紀錄。我們的業績受益於強勁的市場表現，同時也反映了我們實施「一個北方信託」策略的持續進展。

Turning to slide 4. At the beginning of last year, we launched our One Northern Trust strategy, which serves as our road map to becoming a consistently high-performing company and producing meaningful value for all stakeholders. Our strategy is underpinned by three pillars: optimizing growth, strengthening resiliency and managing risk and driving productivity.

翻到幻燈片 4。去年年初，我們推出了「One Northern Trust」策略，這是我們成為一家持續高績效公司並為所有利害關係人創造有意義價值的路線圖。我們的策略由三大支柱支撐：優化成長、增強彈性、管理風險和提高生產力。

Turning to slide 5. We made significant progress across all three pillars in 2024. Let's begin with optimizing growth. Our organic growth trajectory improved across all three businesses with good momentum exiting 2024. Our One Northern Trust strategy places an emphasis on enhancing the client experience while driving sustainable, scalable organic growth.

翻到幻燈片 5。2024年，我們在三大支柱上都取得了重大進展。讓我們從優化成長開始。我們的三大業務的有機成長軌跡均有所改善，2024 年後勢頭良好。我們的「One Northern Trust」策略著重提升客戶體驗，同時推動永續、可擴展的有機成長。

Leveraging the capabilities of the entire firm, we deepened existing client relationships, adding products and services to meet their increasingly complex needs. We also embraced a more intentionally united focus for servicing our global client franchise, executing a joint calling program which resulted in over 140 new business opportunities.

利用整個公司的能力，我們加深了現有客戶關係，增加產品和服務以滿足他們日益複雜的需求。我們也更有意識地集中精力為我們的全球客戶提供服務，實施聯合呼叫計劃，創造了 140 多個新的商業機會。

As an example, NTAM, our asset management business, worked in close partnership with Our Global Family Office and asset servicing businesses, to develop a money market solution for a client seeking greater tax efficiency for its sizable cash investments. This turned out to be highly attractive to a number of our clients, and we experienced one of the fastest fundraises in NTAM history, raising nearly $3 billion over the course of six months with participation from 18 clients.

例如，我們的資產管理業務 NTAM 與我們的全球家族辦公室和資產服務業務密切合作，為尋求提高其大量現金投資稅收效率的客戶開發貨幣市場解決方案。事實證明，這對我們的許多客戶來說非常有吸引力，我們經歷了 NTAM 歷史上最快的融資之一，在六個月內籌集了近 30 億美元，共有 18 位客戶參與。

As we enter 2025, we will further institutionalize these approaches through enterprise-wide initiatives, aligning with meeting our clients' greatest needs and key industry trends such as alternative investment solutions, family office services and liquidity solutions. We will also continue to prioritize growth in wealth and asset management and foster stronger collaboration between both businesses. Relative to strengthening resiliency and managing risk, critical to maintaining our reputation for strength and stability for regulators and the markets.

進入 2025 年，我們將透過全企業範圍的措施進一步製度化這些方法，以滿足客戶的最大需求和關鍵產業趨勢，例如另類投資解決方案、家族辦公室服務和流動性解決方案。我們也將繼續優先考慮財富和資產管理的成長，並促進兩家企業之間更緊密的合作。相對於增強彈性和管理風險，這對於維護監管機構和市場的實力和穩定性聲譽至關重要。

Last year, we designed and launched a multiyear effort to uplift our risk and control system and added new capabilities to strengthen resiliency. We invested in technology to eliminate legacy software applications, mature our cloud environment and bolster our cyber defenses. We also made steady progress automating processes and adopting additional artificial intelligence tools thereby reducing the number of manual processes meaningfully. In support of these initiatives, we created a new operating model and made a number of strategic hires.

去年，我們設計並啟動了一項多年的努力來提升我們的風險和控制系統，並增加了新的能力來增強彈性。我們投資技術來消除遺留軟體應用程序，完善我們的雲端環境並加強我們的網路防禦。我們還在流程自動化和採用更多人工智慧工具方面取得了穩步進展，從而顯著減少了手動流程的數量。為了支持這些舉措，我們創建了一種新的營運模式，並進行了一些策略性招募。

In 2025, we will continue to prioritize investments to further strengthen our resiliency, including modernizing our core platform, accelerating our cloud adoption and pursuing additional opportunities to automate and deploy AI. We made meaningful progress driving productivity in 2024 and laid the groundwork to generate efficiencies in the coming years. We focused on key cross-functional areas in 2024, such as workforce and vendors. Ending the year with headcount 1% lower than two years ago, despite launching a number of growth initiatives and adding resources to support our resiliency efforts.

2025 年，我們將繼續優先投資，以進一步增強我們的彈性，包括實現核心平台的現代化、加速雲端應用以及尋求更多自動化和部署人工智慧的機會。我們在 2024 年推動生產力方面取得了重大進展，並為未來幾年提高效率奠定了基礎。2024 年，我們將重點放在關鍵的跨職能領域，例如勞動力和供應商。儘管我們推出了一系列成長計畫並增加了資源來支持我們的復原力努力，但今年年底的員工總數仍比兩年前減少了 1%。

Within asset servicing, we've reduced headcount for seven consecutive quarters, translating to a more than 7% decrease relative to peak staffing levels. And importantly, many of the resiliency initiatives have also resulted in significant savings particularly from automation and digitization. Going forward, we will continue to enhance our productivity efforts, including leveraging the office of the Chief Operating Officer to implement more structural change to further centralize, standardize and automate operations and processes.

在資產服務領域，我們已連續七個季度裁減員工人數，與員工人數高峰期相比，裁員幅度超過 7%。重要的是，許多彈性舉措也帶來了顯著的節約，特別是透過自動化和數位化。展望未來，我們將繼續加強生產力努力，包括利用首席營運長辦公室實施更多結構性變革，以進一步集中化、標準化和自動化營運和流程。

Turning to our business unit level performance, beginning with wealth management on slide 6. In 2024, we made foundational investments to deliver higher levels of organic growth on a more consistent basis. We grew our sales talent by nearly 20%, enhance our lead flow channels and grew our prospect pipeline materially. More recently, we transitioned our executive leadership and made important strategic hires across various markets and functions.

轉向我們的業務部門層面的表現，從幻燈片 6 上的財富管理開始。2024 年，我們進行了基礎性投資，以更持續地實現更高水準的有機成長。我們的銷售人才增加了近 20%，增強了我們的銷售管道，並大幅增加了我們的潛在客戶管道。最近，我們對高階主管領導層進行了調整，並在各個市場和職能部門進行了重要的策略招募。

As a result of these efforts, we saw a steady improvement throughout the year in our organic growth trajectory with particular strength in GFO. We also increased wealth deposits by 9% and expanded our segment pretax margin by nearly 400 basis points relative to the prior year. And as a testament to the value proposition we provide to clients, we were awarded Best Private Bank in the US for the 13th time in the past 16 years by the Financial Times Group.

由於這些努力，我們看到全年有機成長軌跡穩步改善，尤其是 GFO 表現強勁。我們還將財富存款增加了 9%，並將部門稅前利潤率較前一年提高了近 400 個基點。為了證明我們為客戶提供的價值主張，我們在過去 16 年中第 13 次被《金融時報集團》評為美國最佳私人銀行。

In 2025, Wealth Management will continue to maintain and strengthen our lead position in the upper wealth tiers. Within our Global Family Office business, we will continue to optimize existing client relationships, bolster investment advisory capabilities and expand into new markets, including international areas with significant potential.

2025年，財富管理將持續維持並鞏固我們在高財富階層的領先地位。在我們的全球家族辦公室業務中，我們將繼續優化現有客戶關係，增強投資諮詢能力，並拓展新市場，包括具有巨大潛力的國際地區。

By establishing a separate ultrahigh net worth practice, we will leverage our world-class Family Office platform to better serve wealthy families with more than $100 million in net worth whose needs differ from those of our core wealth clients. We also plan to deepen our penetration of select target markets in the US that have significant wealth and where we have an opportunity to increase our market share. To capitalize we'll add talent, invest in brand awareness and pursue market-specific growth opportunities. We will also expand our suite of alternative investment solutions for wealth clients.

透過建立單獨的超高淨值業務，我們將利用我們世界一流的家族辦公室平台，更好地服務於淨資產超過 1 億美元的富裕家庭，他們的需求與我們的核心財富客戶的需求不同。我們也計劃進一步滲透美國那些擁有大量財富、並有機會增加市場份額的特定目標市場。為了利用這一優勢，我們將引進人才、投資品牌知名度並尋求特定市場的成長機會。我們也將擴大針對財富客戶的另類投資解決方案套件。

Turning to Asset management on Slide 7. We refreshed our strategy in 2023 following the hiring of Daniel Gamba, our Asset management president. This included focusing on products where we have the clear right to win and more fully leveraging the full capabilities of the firm. We made meaningful progress in 2024 through investing in our platform and in core products.

前往投影片 7 上的資產管理。在聘請資產管理總裁 Daniel Gamba 之後，我們在 2023 年更新了策略。這包括專注於我們有明顯優勢的產品，並更充分地發揮公司的全部能力。2024年，我們透過對平台和核心產品的投資取得了有意義的進展。

We refined our go-to-market partnership with asset servicing, creating more comprehensive solutions for clients and prospects which resulted in more than 35 new client wins. Leveraging the success, we launched multiple products specifically geared towards the needs of our asset servicing, GFO and ultra high net worth wealth segments.

我們透過資產服務完善了市場合作夥伴關係，為客戶和潛在客戶創造了更全面的解決方案，從而贏得了 35 多個新客戶。利用這項成功經驗，我們推出了多種專門針對資產服務、GFO 和超高淨值財富領域需求的產品。

As a result, we realized positive inflows for the year, including 13% growth in liquidity, which surpassed $300 billion in AUM and generated positive long-term flows in the second half of the year. We also improved the trajectory of our organic fee growth meaningfully, all while delivering investment performance above our benchmarks. We aim to carry this momentum into 2025 by investing in areas of growth that are both aligned with secular trends in the industry and where we have the right to win. These include expanding our alternatives offerings, capturing growth in custom SMAs and broadening our ETF presence while simultaneously maintaining our focus on core strength in liquidity solutions, indexing, quant and fixed income.

結果，我們實現了全年正流入，其中流動性增長 13%，資產管理規模超過 3000 億美元，並在下半年產生了正長期流入。我們也顯著改善了有機費用成長軌跡，同時實現了高於基準的投資績效。我們的目標是透過投資符合產業長期趨勢且我們有能力取勝的成長領域，將這一勢頭延續到 2025 年。這些措施包括擴大我們的替代產品、抓住客製化 SMA 的成長機會以及擴大我們的 ETF 影響力，同時保持我們對流動性解決方案、指數、量化和固定收益方面的核心優勢的關注。

Turning to asset servicing on Slide 8. Last year, we began to pivot the focus of our asset servicing business to pursue scalable growth in the core business, leveraging existing capabilities rather than bespoke build-outs to generate positive operating leverage and maximize our value to both clients and shareholders. To support this effort, we implemented disciplined criteria for new business generation to ensure that it is accretive, both at inception and on an ongoing basis.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的資產服務。去年，我們開始將資產服務業務的重點轉向追求核心業務的可擴展成長，利用現有能力而不是客製化擴建來產生積極的經營槓桿，並最大限度地提高我們對客戶和股東的價值。為了支持這項努力，我們對新業務的產生實施了嚴格的標準，以確保新業務在開始時和持續發展過程中都能實現增值。

As a result, we bid on fewer opportunities in 2024, yet saw no meaningful degradation to our win rate. We also prioritized growth within our highly scalable capital markets business which grew 17% in 2024, with roughly 50% of this growth coming from new clients. These new clients in turn became prospects for our core custody and fund administration services. As a result, we finished the year with improved organic growth and profitability and a solid pipeline of business to onboard.

因此，我們在 2024 年競標的機會較少，但勝率卻沒有明顯下降。我們還優先考慮高度可擴展的資本市場業務的成長，該業務在 2024 年增長了 17%，其中約 50% 的增長來自新客戶。這些新客戶反過來成為我們核心託管和基金管理服務的潛在客戶。因此，我們在年底實現了有機成長和獲利能力的提高，並擁有了穩固的業務管道。

In 2025, we will continue the momentum, investing in areas to support our clients' evolving needs and to capitalize on industry changes and asset flow trends. This includes sharpening our focus on global private markets and targeted asset owner clients and accelerating the growth of our banking and capital markets business. I hope these additional slides have given you a deeper understanding of our business and strategic objectives.

2025年，我們將繼續保持這一勢頭，投資於能夠滿足客戶不斷變化的需求並利用行業變化和資產流動趨勢的領域。這包括加強我們對全球私人市場和目標資產所有者客戶的關注，並加速我們的銀行和資本市場業務的成長。我希望這些額外的投影片能讓您更深入地了解我們的業務和策略目標。

Let's turn to our medium-term financial targets on Slide 9. By focusing on driving organic growth and generating positive fee and total operating leverage, our medium-term targets are to achieve an expense to Trust fee ratio of 105% to 110%, pretax margins above 30% and an ROE at the upper half of our range of 10% to 15%, along with double-digit EPS growth and meaningful capital return to shareholders.

讓我們來看看第 9 張投影片上的中期財務目標。透過專注於推動有機成長和產生正費用和總營運槓桿，我們的中期目標是實現費用與信託費用比率達到 105% 至 110%、稅前利潤率超過 30% 和 ROE 達到我們 10% 至 15% 範圍的上半部分，同時實現兩位數的每股收益增長和有意義的股東資本回報。

In conclusion, we're confident in our One Northern Trust strategy and determined to execute with discipline to be a consistently high-performing company for all our stakeholders. Our success couldn't be possible without the unwavering efforts of our more than 23,000 global partners. I'd like to thank them for their ongoing support of our clients with service, expertise and integrity. The enduring principles that underlie all that we do.

總之，我們對我們的「一個北方信託」策略充滿信心，並決心嚴格執行，成為一家為所有利害關係人提供持續高績效的公司。我們的成功離不開全球 23,000 多家合作夥伴的不懈努力。我要感謝他們一直以來以服務、專業知識和誠信為我們的客戶提供的支持。我們所做的一切所遵循的持久原則。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dave to review the financials. Dave?

說完這些，我將把財務狀況交給戴夫來審查。戴夫？

Thanks, Mike. Let me join Jennifer and Mike, in welcoming you to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Let's discuss the financial results of the quarters starting on Page 11. This morning, we reported fourth quarter net income of $455 million. Earnings per share of $2.26, and our return on average common equity was 15.3%. Excluding notables, relative to the prior year, the stronger US dollar was immaterial to revenue growth, but favorably impacted our expense growth by approximately 50 basis points.

謝謝，麥克。讓我和 Jennifer 以及 Mike 一起歡迎你們參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。讓我們從第 11 頁開始討論各季度的財務結果。今天上午，我們報告第四季淨收入為 4.55 億美元。每股收益為 2.26 美元，平均普通股權益報酬率為 15.3%。除特殊因素外，與前一年相比，美元走強對收入成長並不重要，但對我們的費用成長產生了約 50 個基點的有利影響。

Excluding notables, relative to the prior quarter, currency impacts unfavorably impacted our fourth quarter revenue growth by approximately 50 basis points, largely within our asset servicing, Custody and Fund Administration segment and favorably impacted our expense growth also by approximately 50 basis points.

除顯著因素外，與上一季相比，貨幣影響對我們第四季度的收入成長產生了約 50 個基點的不利影響，主要集中在我們的資產服務、託管和基金管理部門，同時對我們的費用增長也產生了約 50 個基點的有利影響。

Trust, Investment and other Servicing fees totaled $1.2 billion, a 2% sequential increase and a 12% increase compared to last year. Net interest income on an FTE basis was $574 million, a new record up 1% sequentially and up 15% from a year ago. Our assets under Custody and Administration were down 4% sequentially, but up 9% as compared to the prior year.

信託、投資和其他服務費總計 12 億美元，季增 2%，比去年同期成長 12%。以全職當量計算的淨利息收入為 5.74 億美元，創下新高，比上一季增長 1%，比去年同期增長 15%。我們的託管和管理資產環比下降 4%，但比上年增長 9%。

Our assets under Management were down 1% sequentially, but up 12% year-over-year. And overall, our credit quality remains very strong. Excluding notable items in all periods, Other noninterest income was up 13% sequentially and up 17% over the prior year. Revenue was up 3% sequentially and up 13% on a year-over-year basis. Expenses were up 1.2% sequentially and up 5.5% over the prior year, and earnings per share increased by more than 50% as compared to the prior year.

我們管理的資產環比下降 1%，但年增 12%。總體而言，我們的信用品質仍然非常強勁。剔除所有期間的重大項目，其他非利息收入較上季成長 13%，較去年同期成長 17%。營收季增 3%，年增 13%。費用較上年成長 1.2%，較上年增長 5.5%，每股收益比上年增長 50% 以上。

Turning to our asset servicing results on Page 12. Our asset servicing business performed well in the quarter. Transaction volumes were healthy, capital markets activities were up 20% and new business growth continues to be booked at attractive margins.

前往第 12 頁的資產服務結果。我們的資產服務業務在本季表現良好。交易量健康，資本市場活動成長 20%，新業務成長持續以誘人的利潤率實現。

Assets under custody and administration for asset servicing clients were $15.6 trillion at quarter end, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase due to strong market levels and client inflows, partially offset by unfavorable currency movements. They were down sequentially due to unfavorable currency movements and weaker markets, particularly bonds. Asset servicing fees totaled $676 million. Custody and Fund Administration fees were $457 million up 9% year-over-year, largely reflecting the impact from strong underlying equity markets and new business generation.

截至本季末，資產服務客戶託管和管理的資產為 15.6 兆美元，年增 9%，原因是市場水平強勁且客戶流入，但不利的貨幣走勢部分抵消了這一增長。由於不利的貨幣走勢和市場（尤其是債券）疲軟，它們環比下降。資產服務費總額為6.76億美元。託管和基金管理費用為 4.57 億美元，年增 9%，主要反映了強勁的基礎股票市場和新業務的影響。

Both year-over-year and sequential comparisons were dampened by the client exits we discussed in the second quarter, which are now fully reflected in our run rate. Assets under management for asset servicing clients were $1.2 trillion, up 12% over the prior year. Investment management fees within asset servicing were $157 million, up a strong 20% year-over-year due to favorable markets and new business activities.

我們在第二季度討論的客戶退出影響了同比和環比的成長，但現在這已完全反映在我們的運行率中。資產服務客戶管理的資產為 1.2 兆美元，比上年增長 12%。資產服務中的投資管理費為 1.57 億美元，由於市場有利和新業務活動，年增 20%。

Moving to our wealth management business on Page 13. Wealth management also had a healthy quarter with particular strength in GFO. Assets under management for our Wealth Management clients were $451 billion at quarter end, up 12% year-over-year, including 5% growth in the global family office AUM. Trust investment in servicing fees for Wealth Management clients were $547 million, up 14% year-over-year due to strong equity markets and modestly higher flows.

請前往第 13 頁了解我們的財富管理業務。財富管理本季也表現良好，其中 GFO 表現尤為強勁。截至本季末，我們財富管理客戶的管理資產為 4,510 億美元，年增 12%，其中全球家族辦公室 AUM 成長 5%。信託對財富管理客戶的服務費投資為 5.47 億美元，由於股票市場強勁和流量略有增加，較去年同期成長 14%。

Moving to Page 14 on our balance sheet net interest income trends. Our average earning assets were down 1% on a linked-quarter basis as an increase in loans and securities was offset by a decline in cash held at the Fed and other central banks. Duration of our acuities portfolio is 1.6 years, and the total balance sheet duration continues to be less than one year. Net interest income on an FTE basis was $574 million, up 1% relative to the third quarter, and our net interest margin was 1.71%. The strength was attributable to several factors.

請前往第 14 頁，了解我們的資產負債表淨利息收入趨勢。我們的平均生息資產環比下降了 1%，因為貸款和證券的增加被聯準會和其他中央銀行持有的現金的減少所抵消。我們的敏銳度投資組合的持續時間為 1.6 年，總資產負債表持續時間繼續少於一年。以全職當量計算的淨利息收入為 5.74 億美元，較第三季成長 1%，淨利差為 1.71%。這種實力可歸因於多種因素。

First, the deposit mix came in modestly better than our expectations. Average deposits were $113 billion, flat with third quarter levels, but noninterest-bearing deposits increased 7% on a linked quarter basis and increased 100 basis points as a percentage of the total mix to 15.5%. Second, deposit pricing improved, as part of our focus on client liquidity management, we made certain pricing adjustments to be more aligned with current market conditions.

首先，存款組合略優於我們的預期。平均存款為 1,130 億美元，與第三季水準持平，但無息存款較上季成長 7%，佔總存款的百分比增加了 100 個基點，達到 15.5%。其次，存款定價得到改善，作為我們關注客戶流動性管理的一部分，我們做出了某些定價調整，以更適應當前的市場狀況。

And as expected, we continue to realize a very strong deposit beta on institutional accounts relative to fourth quarter rate cuts. Third, we saw a pickup in loan activity. And fourth, we continue to have higher than trend quarterly contributions from transactional and other items, although not as strong as what we observed in the third quarter.

正如預期的那樣，相對於第四季度的降息，我們繼續實現機構帳戶存款貝塔值非常強勁。第三，我們看到貸款活動有所回升。第四，交易和其他項目的季度貢獻繼續高於趨勢水平，儘管不如第三季那麼強勁。

Turning to our expenses on Page 15. Noninterest expense was approximately $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter, up 1% sequentially but down 1% as compared to the prior year. Excluding notable items in the prior period as listed on the slide, expenses in the fourth quarter were up 1.2% sequentially and up 5.5% year-over-year.

轉到第 15 頁的我們的開支。第四季非利息支出約 14 億美元，季增 1%，但年減 1%。除去投影片中列出的上期重要項目，第四季的支出較上季成長 1.2%，較去年同期成長 5.5%。

Let's now go back and review our core expenses from the quarter. Compensation expense was up 5.5% over the prior year, reflecting the impact of this year's base pay adjustments, modest levels of hiring associated with our modernization initiative and underlying growth in the business. And outside services expenses increased 7% relative to the prior year period, largely due to incremental modernization and resiliency spend.

現在讓我們回顧一下本季的核心支出。薪資支出比上年增長了 5.5%，反映了今年基本工資調整、與我們的現代化計劃相關的適度招聘水平以及業務的潛在增長的影響。外部服務費用較上年同期增加了 7%，這主要是由於現代化和彈性支出的增加。

It was down 2% sequentially as we started to see some consulting expense shift into compensation expense as we made permanent hires to replace consultants. Equipment and Software expense increased 9% year-over-year, mostly related to higher depreciation and amortization expense and costs associated with our cloud journey. We generated over 600 basis points of trust fee operating leverage nearly 800 basis points of overall operating leverage, and our expense-to-trust fee ratio improved by 100 basis points on a linked-quarter basis to 113%.

由於我們聘用了長期員工來取代顧問，我們開始看到一些諮詢費用轉為薪資費用，因此環比下降了 2%。設備和軟體費用年增 9%，主要與更高的折舊和攤提費用以及與我們的雲端之旅相關的成本有關。我們產生了超過 600 個基點的信託費用營運槓桿，近 800 個基點的整體營運槓桿，我們的費用與信託費用比率環比提高了 100 個基點，達到 113%。

Turning to the full year's results on Page 16. Trust fees were up 8% in 2024 due to both strong underlying markets and solid new business generation. We generated record NII, up 8% for the year, driven by sharply increasing deposits at the beginning of the year and stability over the remainder of the year. A healthy loan book and the multiple securities repositioning trades we completed. Total revenue on an FTE basis was up 22% for the full year, and excluding notables, it was up 8%. Reported expenses were up 6.6% for the full year. Excluding notables, they were up 6.1% which includes the impact from our midyear decision to accelerate certain modernization and resiliency expenditures to offset a portion of the gains we realized from the Visa monetization.

翻到第 16 頁的全年業績。由於基礎市場強勁和新業務穩步增長，2024 年信託費用上漲了 8%。受年初存款大幅增加和今年剩餘時間的穩定推動，我們創造了創紀錄的 NII，全年增長 8%。我們完成了健康的貸款帳簿和多項證券重新定位交易。以全職當量計算，全年總收入增加了 22%，扣除重要員工後，成長了 8%。報告顯示全年支出上漲了 6.6%。除重要部分外，它們上漲了 6.1%，其中包括我們年中決定加速某些現代化和彈性支出的影響，以抵消我們從 Visa 貨幣化中獲得的部分收益。

Turning to Page 17. Our capital levels and regulatory ratios remained strong in the quarter, and we continue to operate at levels well above our required regulatory minimum. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio under the standardized approach declined 20 basis points on a linked quarter basis to 12.4% as capital accretion was offset by a slight increase in RWA.

翻到第 17 頁。本季度，我們的資本水平和監管比率仍然保持強勁，我們的營運水平繼續遠高於監管最低要求。由於資本增值被風險加權資產的輕微增加所抵消，我們標準化方法下的普通股一級資本比率環比下降 20 個基點至 12.4%。

Our Tier one leverage ratio was 8.1%, flat with the prior quarter. At quarter end, our unrealized pretax loss on available-for-sale securities was $598 million. We returned $403 million to common shareholders in the quarter through cash dividends of $149 million and common stock repurchases of $254 million. And for the full year, we returned over $1.5 billion, reflecting a payout ratio of 78%, including share repurchases of $938 million, our highest level in five years. We continue to expect our total operating expense growth to be at or below 5% for the full year excluding notable items in both periods.

我們的一級槓桿率為8.1%，與上一季持平。截至季末，我們可供出售證券的未實現稅前損失為 5.98 億美元。本季度，我們透過 1.49 億美元的現金股利和 2.54 億美元的普通股回購向普通股股東返還了 4.03 億美元。全年我們的回報超過 15 億美元，股息率為 78%，其中包括 9.38 億美元的股票回購，這是我們五年來的最高水準。我們仍然預計，不包括兩個時期內的顯著項目，全年總營運費用成長率將保持在 5% 或以下。

Turning to NII. For the first quarter, we expect NII to be approximately $555 million to $575 million. This assumes the current market implied forward curve, a flattish balance sheet on a dollar adjusted basis, with stable deposit levels, a relatively stable deposit mix, stable pricing and modest currency headwinds. For the full year, again, assuming the market implied forward curve, we're expecting NII to increase by low single digits on a percentage basis.

轉向 NII。對於第一季度，我們預計 NII 約為 5.55 億美元至 5.75 億美元。這假設當前市場隱含的遠期曲線、美元調整後的資產負債表持平、存款水準穩定、存款組合相對穩定、定價穩定且貨幣逆風適度。對於全年而言，同樣，假設市場隱含的遠期曲線，我們預期 NII 將以百分比形式成長低個位數。

And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

Hi, thanks very much. Quick follow-up on and thank you for the NII guide. I'm just curious on the durability of some of the underlying trends, meaning the 7% growth in noninterest-bearing deposits in the quarter. Like was there some parking of cash by clients that naturally flows out? And then if you could just clarify when you talked about made pricing decisions in line with market conditions, is that just rates came down and you lowered some deposit pricing on clients? Thanks.

你好，非常感謝。快速跟進並感謝您的 NII 指南。我只是好奇一些潛在趨勢的持久性，即本季無息存款成長 7%。例如，客戶存放的現金是否自然流出？然後，如果您能澄清一下，當您談到根據市場情況做出定價決策時，是否只是利率下降並且您降低了一些客戶的存款價格？謝謝。

Yeah, Thanks for that question. I think noninterest-bearing deposits were up over $1 billion. I think that's probably higher than other quarters. And my guess would be that there's some seasonality to that number. And certainly, we welcome it. But ultimately, it's not out of step with what we've seen in the past. In terms of the pricing adjustments, and we've talked about this before, we really have put a lot of effort behind our overall liquidity management, balance sheet management as it relates to deposits.

是的，謝謝你的提問。我認為無息存款增加了10多億美元。我認為這可能比其他季度更高。我猜測這個數字有一定的季節性。當然，我們對此表示歡迎。但最終，它與我們過去所見的並無不同。就價格調整而言，我們之前已經討論過這個問題，我們確實在整體流動性管理和與存款相關的資產負債表管理方面投入了大量精力。

And so when we think about our pricing adjustments, it's more than just a normal course of business type of pricing adjustment. It's really taking a look at all the multiple currencies that we do manage on our deposit base and having a much more fulsome review of everything we're doing and making sure those betas are consistent with what we think they should be.

因此，當我們考慮價格調整時，它不僅僅是一種正常的業務類型的價格調整。這實際上是在審視我們在存款基礎上管理的所有多種貨幣，對我們所做的一切進行更全面的審查，並確保這些測試版與我們認為的一致。

Okay. I appreciate it. The other one I want to talk on is alternatives were a big part of your objectives across each of the Wealth asset management, asset servicing objectives. So my question is, a, are things accelerating? And then maybe you could talk about what is already built, what needs to be built. And then I think we're all curious on some specifics, like what product? What asset classes are seeing the most demand in?

好的。我很感激。我想談的另一個問題是，替代方案是你們在財富資產管理和資產服務目標中的重要部分。所以我的問題是，a，事情正在加速嗎？然後也許您可以談論已經建造的內容和需要建造的內容。然後我想我們都對一些具體問題感到好奇，例如什麼產品？哪些資產類別的需求最大？

Glenn, I'll take that. And you're right that alternative investment solutions is something that cuts across each of the 3 businesses. And I think the way to think about it is instead of necessarily the businesses, but think about the solutions that we're providing. So from an investor perspective, whether that's our wealth clients and the segments within that or institutional clients, can we bring a broader set of solutions to them on this front for private market solutions. And so right now, we offer that through 50 South Capital, which is a part of our asset management business, and that's in a -- largely a fund-to-fund structure. We've seen great success with that, we raised over $1 billion that we closed on this year for that. So that's one of the solutions for a subset of the investors.

格倫，我接受。您說得對，另類投資解決方案貫穿了這三大業務。我認為思考這個問題的方式不一定是企業，而是思考我們所提供的解決方案。因此，從投資者的角度來看，無論是我們的財富客戶及其內部細分市場還是機構客戶，我們能否在私人市場解決方案方面為他們提供更廣泛的解決方案。因此，現在我們透過 50 South Capital 提供這項服務，它是我們資產管理業務的一部分，基本上是一種基金對基金的結構。我們在這方面取得了巨大的成功，今年我們為此籌集了超過 10 億美元的資金。這是針對部分投資者的解決方案之一。

But in addition to that, we also have a platform that has other private capital managers on it. So different funds. And at this point, to your point, it's built out, if you will, but we think that we can offer more options on that platform. So that's another way to build it out. And also when you talk about what needs to be done, we want to make sure that all of our portfolio managers are fully versed in the various types of private capital alternatives. And so you have, I'll call it, that education and training part of it to make sure that, that is in place.

但除此之外，我們還有一個平台，上面有其他私人資本經理。資金如此不同。此時，正如您所說，它已經建成了，但我們認為我們可以在該平台上提供更多選擇。這是構建它的另一種方法。而且當您談論需要做什麼時，我們希望確保我們所有的投資組合經理都完全熟悉各種類型的私人資本替代品。因此，我稱之為教育和培訓部分，以確保這一點到位。

And then as I mentioned, institutional as well, with our asset servicing business, not only can we offer it through the vehicles that I talked about there, like 50 South, but also we can offer it in an advisory capacity. And so working with larger institutions that will then want us to provide advisory services on their -- the portion of their portfolio that's in alternatives. So that's on the investor side.

然後，正如我所提到的，對於機構而言，透過我們的資產服務業務，我們不僅可以透過我之前談到的工具（例如 50 South）提供服務，還可以以諮詢的身份提供服務。因此，與較大的機構合作，他們希望我們為其投資組合中另類投資的部分提供諮詢服務。這是從投資人角度而言的。

When you think about the private capital firms on that front, there's a lot that we can provide to them as well. Certainly, capital call facilities, but also banking solutions for the entities themselves and then very much so on the administration front. And there, I would say, if you think about specific areas in Europe, for example, where semi liquids are growing at a very high rate whether that's the structures that are in the UK, like the Long-term Asset Funds or LTAP or in Europe with a similar type structure they're growing at a high rate, and we have a very strong position in that. So providing services to the firms.

當你考慮到這方面的私人資本公司時，我們也可以為他們提供很多東西。當然，還有資本調用便利，以及針對實體本身的銀行解決方案，以及行政管理的問題。我想說的是，如果你考慮歐洲的特定地區，例如，半流動性正在以非常高的速度增長，無論是英國的結構，例如長期資產基金或 LTAP，還是具有類似結構類型的歐洲，它們的增長速度都很高，而我們在這方面佔據著非常強勢的地位。因此為公司提供服務。

And then finally, I would say also to the principles of these firms. If we're working with them on the two fronts that I talked about there, we want to make them wealth management clients as well and have done that but look to grow that part of the business as well.

最後，我還要說一下這些公司的原則。如果我們在剛才我談到的兩個方面與他們合作，我們也希望讓他們成為財富管理客戶，而我們已經這樣做了，但我們也希望擴大這部分業務。

I appreciate all that. Thank you.

我對此表示感謝。謝謝。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

瑞銀的布倫南·霍肯。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Love to start out maybe a bit granular. In the past, you guys have spoken to targeting keeping, the expense growth in 2025 at 5% or better. Dave, you had some comments made in December industry conference where it seemed as though there was a little bit of uncertainty around that. Could you maybe clarify, is that a reasonable level to expect for 2025? And if not, what are the variables that we should watch?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。喜歡從稍微細小的地方開始。過去，你們曾談到將 2025 年的費用成長率保持在 5% 或更高。戴夫，你在 12 月的行業會議上發表了一些評論，似乎對此存在一些不確定性。您能否澄清一下，這是 2025 年預期的合理水準嗎？如果不是，我們應該關注哪些變數？

Yeah, thanks for that question. I was in the chair maybe 1.5 months or 2 months when I was asked that question. And now that I've been in the chair for four months and have gone through our planning period for '25, I have very strong conviction around the 5% or below number. So we can take that issue off the table, if you will. And obviously, what we try to do is in putting that number out, we don't put it out in isolation.

是的，謝謝你的提問。當我被問到這個問題時，我擔任主席大概一個半月或兩個月了。現在我已經擔任主席四個月了，並且已經度過了 25 年的規劃期，我非常堅信這個數字會是 5% 或更低。所以如果你願意的話，我們可以不再討論這個問題。顯然，我們試圖把這個數字公佈出來，而不是孤立地公佈。

So our North Star is obviously what Mike talked about earlier, which is positive operating leverage. But at the end of the day, we know that the markets were pretty buoyant in 2024, and we want to prepare ourselves to have a resilient business model. And the only way to do that is to keep driving expense curve down.

所以我們的北極星顯然就是麥克之前談到的，也就是正向經營槓桿。但最終，我們知道 2024 年的市場相當活躍，我們希望做好準備，建立一個有彈性的商業模式。而做到這一點的唯一方法就是保持駕駛費用曲線下降。

Got it. That's very clear. And then taking a step back, you guys provided some good details here in your strategic update, laying out the progress. But I'd like to maybe lay out a question that I get from investors a lot, which is the ROE targets. Do you think that the ROE targets are ambitious enough? The lower end of the range doesn't really suggest a ton of improvement from recent levels. And why is it that we haven't seen those ROE targets move higher, particularly as we've seen maybe some of the growth rates begin to swell?

知道了。這非常清楚。然後退一步來說，你們在策略更新中提供了一些很好的細節，闡述了進展。但我想提出一個投資者經常問我的問題，即 ROE 目標。您認為 ROE 目標是否足夠雄心勃勃？該範圍的低端實際上並不意味著與最近的水平相比有很大的改善。為什麼我們沒有看到這些 ROE 目標上升，特別是當我們可能已經看到一些成長率開始上升時？

So we've had, to your point, the 10% to 15% range for some time. And that does cover different market environments and also different capital requirements as those regulations have changed over time. And we've seen even in the, call it, past couple of years here where there was the expectation there was going to be more capital, now we may be in a different environment where those requirements are not going to be as high. So that's what it would take into account.

因此，正如您所說，我們的利率範圍已經處於 10% 到 15% 之間一段時間了。這確實涵蓋了不同的市場環境以及不同的資本要求，因為這些法規隨著時間的推移而改變。我們看到，即使在過去幾年裡，人們預期會有更多資本，但現在我們可能處於一個不同的環境中，這些要求不會那麼高。這就是它會考慮的因素。

To your question of why not hire per se, certainly, we're driving to higher returns on capital, but we're also trying to drive to growth. And so if you just said, could you hit a higher ROE? You could, but you might be detracting from your ability to grow the business, which we think it's the combination that you want over time. As I mentioned in my comments earlier, Brennan, we're certainly shooting for the top half of that range. And in fact, in this quarter, as you saw, we were over the top end of the range. So it's not to say we're trying to constrict the returns. It's just saying we want the optimal combination between growth and returns.

對於你為什麼不招募的問題，當然，我們正在努力提高資本回報率，但我們也在努力推動成長。那麼，如果您說，您能實現更高的 ROE 嗎？您可以這樣做，但這可能會削弱您發展業務的能力，而我們認為這是您長期想要的組合。正如我之前在評論中提到的，布倫南，我們肯定會瞄準這個範圍的上半部。事實上，如您所見，在本季度，我們的業績已經超出了預期範圍的上限。所以這並不是說我們試圖限制回報。這只是說我們想要成長和回報之間的最佳組合。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

During the prepared remarks, you were talking about how you've been able to get some of the expense improvements from asset servicing business lines, in addition to others, obviously. But in the asset servicing piece, with some headcount reduction, if I heard you correctly. And the reason I'm asking the question is Northern Trust has a long history of excellent quality service, right?

在準備好的發言中，您談到如何從資產服務業務線以及其他業務線中獲得一些費用改善。但如果我沒聽錯的話，在資產服務部分，會裁減一些員工。我問這個問題的原因是北方信託長期以來一直提供優質服務，對嗎？

Service quality is the other North Star that you've got for yourself, if I could borrow that phrase, and I'm wondering how have you been able to reduce headcount and keep that service quality high. In the past, it's been this friction point that's kept, I think, the organization from executing the kind of efficiencies that you're seeing now.

如果我可以藉用這句話的話，服務品質就是您為自己找到的另一個北極星，我想知道您是如何做到減少員工人數並保持高服務品質的。我認為，過去正是這個摩擦點阻礙了組織實現現在這樣的效率。

And could you help us understand what is it that you're doing differently that's enabling this headcount reduction while maintaining the service quality? Is it something to do with where technology is today? Is it the AI? Is it something totally different, how you're organized?

您能否幫助我們了解一下，你們採取了哪些不同的措施，使得在減少員工人數的同時還能維持服務品質？這與當今的技術水平有關嗎？是人工智慧嗎？你們的組織方式是否完全不同？

Let me start and then Dave may want to add. But Betsy, you're right, and you can say that service quality is another North Star, if you will, for us, because it is something that we look to differentiate ourselves. And to your point, what we're trying to do is maintain that but also gain much greater efficiency and how we provide those services.

讓我先開始，然後戴夫可能想補充一下。但是貝琪，你是對的，你可以說服務品質對我們來說是另一個北極星，因為這是我們尋求與眾不同的東西。正如您所說，我們正在努力保持這種狀態，但同時也提高效率以及提供這些服務的方式。

And so just one thing I would say that we've done that's fundamentally different here is how we've organized our activities, how we've organized the company. And going back to kind of a little past midway in 2024, we created the Chief Operating Officer role with Pete Cherecwich and moved the operations into that group, that's so that we can gain much greater efficiency out of the operational aspect of that business.

因此，我想說，我們所做的一件根本不同的事就是我們如何組織我們的活動，如何組織公司。回溯到 2024 年中期，我們與 Pete Cherecwich 共同設立了首席營運長職位，並將業務轉移到該部門，這樣我們就可以從該業務的營運方面獲得更高的效率。

So we can get greater centralization, standardization, automation. And when we do that, our view is that make those services better that we'll get greater resiliency from doing that, but also just ease of use. And a lot of that does come with investments in technology to be able to do that but we believe that as the business more scalable as well. So that's the way we can, I believe, maintain both.

這樣我們就可以實現更高的集中化、標準化和自動化。當我們這樣做時，我們的觀點是，讓這些服務變得更好，這樣我們就能從中獲得更大的彈性，同時也更容易使用。為了實現這一目標，許多工作確實需要對技術進行投資，但我們相信，隨著業務的擴展，這一目標也將更加明確。所以我相信這就是我們能夠同時維持兩者的方法。

Okay. And how do you see the forward look here? How many more years of this do you feel that you have to be able to leverage the new structure?

好的。您如何看待未來的前景？您認為還需要多少年才能充分利用這項新結構？

Yeah, I would say that it does take some time to gain the full benefits of what we're talking about here. So the way we've looked at some of the things we're doing here is these are -- we say multiyear, but that means kind of two to three years where you're really getting, I'll say, the greatest benefit. But then importantly, we're trying to set it up in such a way that it's sustainable as well. And so you continue to get additional benefits over time. But you're right, you're going to capture more in the first kind of two to three years of it before it reaches that level.

是的，我想說，要充分享受我們在這裡談論的好處確實需要一些時間。因此，我們看待我們在這裡所做的一些事情的方式是——我們說是多年期，但這意味著兩到三年的時間，你會真正獲得最大的利益。但重要的是，我們正在嘗試以一種可持續的方式進行設定。因此，隨著時間的推移，您將繼續獲得額外的好處。但你是對的，在達到那個水平之前，你會在最初的兩到三年內捕獲更多。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the Global Family Office piece. Looking at sort of Slide 13, just talk to us, it was a priority in '24, I'm assuming it remains a big area of focus. When we think about the revenue growth, whether or not that should be sort of leading the way going forward, on a year-over-year basis, pretty strong growth in revenues within the GFO segment. It sort of plateaued out over the last few quarters. If you can talk to how we should think about revenue growth within GFO given the investments you made, given just the secular growth in that segment would be helpful.

早安.我只是想跟進全球家族辦公室的部分。看看第 13 張幻燈片，只要和我們談談，這是 24 年的優先事項，我認為它仍然是一個重點關注領域。當我們考慮營收成長時，無論這是否應該引領未來的發展方向，與去年同期相比，GFO 部門的營收成長相當強勁。過去幾個季度，這一趨勢趨於平穩。如果您能談談，考慮到您所做的投資，我們應該如何看待 GFO 的收入成長，考慮到該領域的長期成長，這將會很有幫助。

Sure, I'm happy to do that. What I would say is GFO probably had its strongest year than it's ever had in terms of organic growth was exceptional, very high single-digit organic growth. And we've also been reaching out more to international markets as well. And so from that perspective, it was a great year.

當然，我很樂意這麼做。我想說的是，GFO 的有機成長速度可能是有史以來最快的，達到了非常高的個位數有機成長。我們也一直在進一步拓展國際市場。從這個角度來看，這是偉大的一年。

Also keep in mind that our assets under management in the fourth quarter were up 5%. And I think there is a lag effect there, right? So depending on when you bring that business in, you'll see it in your numbers. And so there's that issue as well. So I wouldn't say that it actually has plateaued. What I would tell you is the pipeline looks -- the GFO pipeline actually looks more robust going into '25 than it did in '24.

還要記住的是，我們在第四季度管理的資產成長了 5%。我認為這裡面有滯後效應，對嗎？因此，根據您開展該業務的時間，您會在數字中看到它。所以也存在這個問題。所以我不會說它實際上已經達到穩定水平。我想告訴你的是，GFO 管道在 25 年看起來實際上比 24 年更穩健。

Understood. And maybe just a separate question. So I heard you on the NII guide. How should we think about the gearing of the balance sheet? One, do you think that we are at a point where if the Fed were not to do anything, rates stay more or less same, NII and deposit balances should grow from here, all else equal?

明白了。也許這只是一個單獨的問題。我在 NII 指南上聽到了您的聲音。我們該如何看待資產負債表的槓桿率？第一，您是否認為，如果聯準會不採取任何行動，利率將基本保持不變，在其他條件相同的情況下，NII 和存款餘額應該會從現在開始增長？

Yeah, I mean, we're still anticipating a certain number of rate cuts, at least a couple this year in the US. And then globally, there's a lot of other potential rate cuts that are in our numbers as well. Keep in mind, our deposits aren't all in dollars. So we obviously did some pricing adjustments, which help on the NII front as well. We also have a pickup in loan activity, which we think could continue into next year. So there's a lot of different puts and takes when you get to the NII number apart from just the various cuts and interest rate cycles.

是的，我的意思是，我們仍然預計美國今年將有一定次數的降息，至少有幾次。從全球來看，我們的數據中也預測了許多其他可能的降息。請記住，我們的存款並非全部都是美元。因此，我們顯然做了一些價格調整，這對 NII 方面也有幫助。我們的貸款活動也有所回升，我們認為這種情況可能會持續到明年。因此，除了各種降息和利率週期之外，當你談到 NII 數字時，還有很多不同的優點和缺點。

But rate cuts alone, would that be incrementally positive or negative given the bad balance sheet mix?

但考慮到糟糕的資產負債表組合，單單降息會產生正面影響還是負面影響？

No. We think, obviously, if there are less rate cuts, that's better.

不。我們認為，顯然，降息幅度越小越好。

Okay, got it. Thank you.

好的，明白了。謝謝。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Hey Mike. Hey, good morning, everybody. I wanted to ask you guys a question around expenses again. So I heard you loud and clear on the at or below the 5% number. I guess in the past, the revenue base or rather the expense base, sorry, used to flex a little bit more up and down with revenues.

嘿，麥克。嘿，大家早安。我想再問大家一個有關費用的問題。因此，我清楚地聽到了您關於 5% 或以下數字的意見。我想，在過去，收入基數，或者更確切地說是支出基數，抱歉，會隨著收入的變化而稍微上下波動。

So I just want to understand a little better, has that changed at all, meaning that if you are in a sort of better fee environment in 2025 versus what you're contemplating? Are you still kind of committing to the 5% as the upper end of that? And maybe a better way to ultimately calibrate this is to talk about the expense to fee ratio that you expect for the full year 2025.

所以我只是想更了解一下，情況是否有所改變，這意味著與您所考慮的相比，2025 年的費用環境是否會更好？您是否仍將 5% 作為上限？也許最終校準這一點的更好方法是討論您預計的 2025 年全年的費用與費用比率。

Yeah, so I'll start on that, Alex. And to your point, there's always going to be a relationship between the expenses and the revenues, even with the market impact or rate impact, I'll call it, on NII and even the capital markets activities. So just take capital markets as an example because we don't talk about that as much.

是的，所以我就從那裡開始，亞歷克斯。正如您所說，支出和收入之間總是存在著某種關係，即使存在市場影響或利率影響（我稱之為 NII 甚至資本市場活動）。僅以資本市場為例，因為我們很少談論這件事。

We had a lot of success with capital markets this year and saw double-digit growth on the revenue side. There are certain expenses that come with that. If you think about just clearing expenses and things like that. The same thing with asset management. where depending on how the asset management products are distributed, there are some costs that go with that though.

今年我們在資本市場取得了巨大成功，收入實現了兩位數的成長。這會產生一定的費用。如果您只考慮清理費用和類似的事情。資產管理也是一樣。但根據資產管理產品的經銷方式，也會產生一些成本。

And so we had, again, a successful year with asset management, Capital Markets, both of those very scalable products for us, which is good, there is going to be some expense that comes with the additional growth. So that's just the, I'll call it, the relationships there. That said, we believe that we're trying to get less of that flex, if you will. And so if you look at the fourth quarter here, obviously, strong revenues and expenses still at a level that's higher than we think it should be and that what we're aiming for, but it created a significant amount of operating leverage on that front.

因此，我們在資產管理和資本市場方面又度過了成功的一年，這對我們來說都是非常可擴展的產品，這是一件好事，但額外的成長會帶來一些費用。這就是我所說的關係。話雖如此，我們相信我們正在嘗試減少這種靈活性，如果你願意的話。因此，如果你看一下第四季度，顯然強勁的收入和支出仍然處於高於我們認為應有的水平，這也是我們的目標，但它在這方面創造了相當大的經營槓桿。

Now as the revenue growth goes down, that's where we have to push that down faster and harder. So we're trying to hold it down even when revenues are more robust. And then when it's much tighter, ensuring that we keep them much more under control.

現在，隨著營收成長的下降，我們必須更快、更努力地降低營收成長速度。因此，即使收入更加強勁，我們也會努力控制收入。然後，當它變得更加嚴格時，確保我們能夠更好地控制它們。

Got you. I know that all makes sense, like, obviously, ultimately, higher revenue comes with higher expenses, and that's a high cost problem. But I guess as you think about the expense to fee ratio, which would kind of normalize for that flex, so to speak, what do you guys are aiming for 2025?

明白了。我知道這一切都是有道理的，例如，顯然，最終，更高的收入會帶來更高的支出，這是一個高成本問題。但我想，當您考慮費用與費用比率時，這種彈性將會正常化，可以這麼說，你們 2025 年的目標是什麼？

Yeah, So without putting a pin in on a number for 2025, definitely looking for positive fee operating leverage, which will drive that down, we're at 115 for the year, we were at 113 for the quarter. So you can see the trajectory. And the reason why we use that ratio, as you know, Alex, is because that essentially is trying to say, how do we take some of that flex out of the financial model, if you will.

是的，所以，在不確定 2025 年的具體數字的情況下，我們肯定會尋求正的費用營運槓桿，這將推動這一數字下降，今年我們的費用運營槓桿為 115，本季度為 113。這樣你就可以看到軌跡了。正如亞歷克斯你所知，我們之所以使用這個比率，是因為它本質上是想說，我們如何從財務模型中去除一些彈性，如果你願意的話。

And so we've identified the 105 to 110 as a level that says that's the right level of efficiency that we're able to maintain in providing those services and having them at the right level of service but also to the extent that you do see revenues come down, your expenses are not too high, if you will, and therefore, you've essentially taken some of that, again, flex out of it on the downside. So no specific target for this year other than continued progress into that range.

因此，我們將 105 到 110 確定為一個水平，這個水平表明我們在提供這些服務時能夠保持的正確效率水平，並使它們處於正確的服務水平，但同時您也看到收入下降，您的支出不會太高，因此，您基本上已經吸收了其中的一些，再次，在下行方面有所迴旋。因此，除了繼續朝著這個範圍前進之外，今年沒有其他具體目標。

Got it. Okay. That's perfect. Thank you, guys.

知道了。好的。那很完美。謝謝你們。

Yeah.

是的。

David Smith, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 David Smith。

Your capital levels are still pretty elevated versus your closest peers at 12.4% CET1. Can you talk about how you expect to use your capital in the near term and where you might want to bring your capital levels to over the next year or so?

與最接近的同行相比，您的資本水準仍然相當高，為 12.4% CET1。您能否談談您預計在短期內如何使用您的資本，以及您希望在未來一年左右將您的資本水平提高到什麼水平？

Sure, I would agree. We have very strong capital levels right now, and that's a result of both the strong income generation, but also the benefit of the Visa gain that we had earlier this year. That's enabled us to repurchase stock at a higher level, and that's how we think about that lever is the share repurchases can flex up and down depending on our capital levels.

當然，我同意。我們目前的資本水準非常強勁，這既得益於強勁的收入成長，也得益於今年稍早獲得的 Visa 收益。這使我們能夠在更高的水平上回購股票，這就是我們對槓桿的看法，即股票回購可以根據我們的資本水平上下浮動。

So we would expect as we go into 2025 to continue at this pace, were, as I mentioned, very comfortable at the current capital levels, but also would be comfortable moving them down somewhat. We have a target range to be above some of our closest peers when it comes to capital but the level that we're at right now is very comfortable and gives us the room to be able to do more. Dave mentioned for this year, if you exclude the notables, our total payout ratio was in the area of about 78% and we would expect to be at that level or higher as we go into 2025.

因此，我們預計，隨著進入 2025 年，我們將繼續保持這種速度，正如我所提到的，我們對當前的資本水準感到非常滿意，但也會願意將其略微降低。在資本方面，我們的目標是超過一些最接近的同行，但我們目前的水平非常舒適，並為我們提供了做更多事情的空間。戴夫提到，如果排除知名人士，今年我們的總派息率約為 78%，我們預計到 2025 年將達到這個水平或更高。

Thank you. And then separately on NII. If I just take the midpoints of your 1Q and full year NII guide, it would suggest NII staying pretty consistent throughout the year, at least on average. Is there anything that we should be considering in terms of the cadence there across the cuts, in the forward curve as well as your expectations for loan growth or balance sheet shifts?

謝謝。然後分別討論 NII。如果我只取您的第一季和全年 NII 指南的中點，則表示 NII 全年將保持相當穩定，至少平均而言如此。在降息節奏、遠期曲線以及貸款成長或資產負債表變化的預期方面，我們是否應該考慮什麼？

No, I mean one thing to keep in mind with us as it relates to NII is that we are a very liability-driven institution. And so -- and that's why, to Mike's point about capital, that's why we keep this excess capital. And so for example, we saw a very large pickup in our loan activity over the last quarter. And so we want to make sure our balance sheet is there for our clients.

不，我的意思是，當涉及 NII 時，我們要記住的一件事是，我們是一個非常以責任為導向的機構。所以——這就是為什麼，對於麥克關於資本的觀點，這就是我們保留這些過剩資本的原因。例如，我們發現上個季度我們的貸款活動大幅增加。因此，我們希望確保我們的資產負債表能夠提供給客戶。

We can't always predict when that's going to be, when they're going to want to put deposits on or take loans out or things of that nature. So we've guided still for deposit for the NII to be up over the course of the entire year, but low single digits. But at the end of the day, trying to land on the head of a pin as to exactly when that's going to happen quarter-by-quarter is going to be difficult to do for the entire year.

我們無法總是預測什麼時候會發生這種情況，什麼時候他們會想要存入或貸款或進行諸如此類的事情。因此，我們仍然指導國家資訊基礎存款在全年內上漲，但幅度保持在較低的個位數。但最終，想要準確預測全年每季的具體時間是件很難的事。

Understood. Thanks.

明白了。謝謝。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Hi, good morning, folks. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just on the NII line and then correlate that with expenses because clearly, you're what you can manage more -- with more certainty is the expense to Trust fee ratio. I guess the question is, to the extent NII oxalates around that sort of range to say if it is lower. Are you still keeping a target of generating total operating leverage on total revenue, not just fees, but combined with NII? Or would you just really just focus on the fee side?

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是在 NII 線上，然後將其與費用關聯起來，因為很明顯，您可以管理更多 - 更確定的是費用與信託費用的比率。我想問題是，NII 草酸鹽的含量在那種範圍內是否較低。您是否仍將總收入（不僅是費用，還與 NII 結合）作為產生總營運槓桿的目標？或者您實際上只關注費用方面？

So here's what I would say. So we're trying to build a sustainable financial model that can last through all cycles. So at the end of the day, the cost curve has to go down regardless of markets, right? We can't rely on things we don't control. And so when we look at what we're trying to do over time is really get that expense line to stand up and not be dependent on a particular market dynamic.

這就是我想說的話。因此，我們正在嘗試建立一個可持續、貫穿所有周期的金融模式。所以最終無論市場如何，成本曲線都必須下降，對嗎？我們不能依賴我們無法控制的事物。因此，當我們審視我們長期嘗試做的事情時，我們真正要做的就是讓費用線站穩腳跟，而不是依賴特定的市場動態。

And so to the earlier comments that we made around the growth in expenses, that's market-driven, that doesn't mean that all the other expenses, if we have a great year in NII are going to go up sequentially, right? We've got to keep a lid on all the other stuff that's not market-driven. And that's going to be a goal regardless of the NII number.

因此，對於我們之前關於費用成長的評論，這是市場驅動的，這並不意味著如果我們在 NII 方面取得了巨大的成功，那麼所有其他費用都會連續上漲，對嗎？我們必須控制所有其他非市場驅動的東西。無論 NII 數量是多少，這都是一個目標。

Yes. That's good color. And then maybe just shifting over to the Wealth Management business and sort of the mission of improving the penetration within that channel Northern Trust Managed products, good success the last couple of quarters with the cash product that you mentioned Mike, which we can see in the results.

是的。這顏色真好。然後也許只是轉向財富管理業務，並致力於提高北方信託管理產品在該渠道的滲透率，過去幾個季度，您提到的現金產品取得了良好的成功，邁克，我們可以在結果中看到這一點。

How are you envisioning that over the next year, one to two years in longer-term product? Back several years ago, you -- I think that the mix of NTAM product within the channel was in the north of 40%. It's in the high 30s now. Do you see that getting back to the mid say, low to mid-40s over time? And then how do you think about the incremental revenue pickup from doing that? Or is that kind of neutral?

您如何預期未來一年或一到兩年的長期產品發展？幾年前，我認為通路內的 NTAM 產品組合佔比在 40% 以上。現在氣溫已超過 30 度。您是否認為隨著時間的推移，該數字會回到 40 年代中期？那麼，您認為這樣做能帶來多少增量收入呢？或者說是那種中性的？

No. We see it as a positive. And we say that in the sense that we really have the asset management business and Wealth Management business working closely together. We made some fundamental organizational changes going back over a year ago to better align the, I'll call it, the coverage of Wealth Management by asset management, the wealth client group. And in the past year, we've seen the benefits. It's still, I would say, in the early days as to how that will flow through.

不。我們認為這是一件正面的事。我們這樣說的意思是，我們確實將資產管理業務和財富管理業務緊密結合。我們在一年多前進行了一些根本性的組織變革，以便更好地協調資產管理對財富管理的覆蓋範圍，也就是財富客戶群。在過去的一年裡，我們已經看到了好處。我想說，至於具體如何實施，現在還處於早期階段。

But the idea is by better covering them, if you will, understanding what the needs are of Wealth Management, we can provide a broader set of alternatives that are aligned with what the needs are of our Wealth Management clients. So that's been a real positive.

但我們的想法是，透過更好地涵蓋這些需求，如果您願意的話，了解財富管理的需求是什麼，我們可以提供更廣泛的替代方案，以滿足我們的財富管理客戶的需求。所以這確實是一件正面的事情。

In addition, I would say, what we've seen is the opportunity to further segment the solutions that we're providing on behalf of NTAM to the Wealth Management business. So my point being, the needs of our GFO clients from an asset management perspective are different than those for, let's say, our core wealth group. And so how do we differentiate that offering.

此外，我想說，我們看到了進一步細分我們代表 NTAM 向財富管理業務提供的解決方案的機會。所以我的觀點是，從資產管理的角度來看，我們的 GFO 客戶的需求與我們的核心財富集團的需求不同。那我們要如何區分該產品呢？

And then importantly, when we talk about the ultra high net worth segment, so think about $100 million plus, but not full Family Office, that's where we see further opportunity to tailor what we're providing to them. Some of that will be through alternatives, which I talked about earlier but it's a broader set of capabilities as well. You heard about ETFs, for example, we're going to look to provide more ETFs that fit with the core needs of the wealth client base. So we see opportunity with the businesses working closely together going forward.

然後重要的是，當我們談論超高淨值部分時，想想 1 億美元以上，但不是完整的家族辦公室，這就是我們看到進一步機會來定制我們為他們提供的服務的地方。其中一些將透過替代方案來實現，正如我之前所討論的，但這也是一套更廣泛的功能。例如，您聽說過 ETF，我們將尋求提供更多符合財富客戶群核心需求的 ETF。因此，我們看到了未來企業密切合作的機會。

Great, great. Thank you. Sure.

太好了，太好了。謝謝。當然。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，Seaport Global Securities。

Hey, good morning. Maybe just on asset servicing. So you guys obviously have narrowed your focus to more back-office custody. So it seems like the pipeline is still pretty solid. But how do you think about the organic growth from here, the trade-off between that and the improving incremental margins? And then secondly, how do you think -- it sounds like a lot of your larger peers are attempting the same strategy. So have you seen pricing pressure or competition increase for pure custody deals? Thanks.

嘿，早安。也許只是資產服務。所以你們顯然已經將重點縮小到後台託管。因此看起來管道仍然相當穩固。但是，您如何看待目前的有機成長，以及有機成長與不斷提高的增量利潤率之間的權衡？其次，您認為如何——聽起來很多規模較大的同行都在嘗試同樣的策略。那麼，您是否發現純託管交易的定價壓力或競爭加劇了？謝謝。

Sure. So our business at this point is relatively balanced in -- between what we do for asset owners globally and what we do for Asset Managers. So we feel good about that mix. And so going forward, we would look for the growth rates to be similar, the organic growth rates. That has not necessarily been the case over the last 5, 10-plus years where we were growing out the asset manager side of the business.

當然。因此，我們目前的業務相對平衡——我們為全球資產所有者所做的工作和我們為資產管理者所做的工作。所以我們對這種組合感到很滿意。因此，展望未來，我們會尋求相似的成長率，即有機成長率。在過去 5 年到 10 多年裡，我們一直在發展資產管理業務，但事實並非如此。

By its nature and what we do on that front, the asset owner side is a more scalable business for us. So by having that balance, that's why when we talk about optimized growth and scalable growth in this business. It aligns with bringing on new business that is less, I'll say, resource intensive. But not to say that in any way, we're carving back or pulling back from a particular market or a service that we're providing.

從其性質以及我們在這方面所做的工作來看，資產所有者方面對我們來說是一項更具可擴展性的業務。因此，透過實現這種平衡，這就是我們談論該業務的最佳化成長和可擴展成長的原因。這與開展資源密集程度較低的新業務一致。但這並不意味著我們要削減或退出某個特定市場或我們提供的服務。

To your point, as we go forward here, we see strong business on both fronts. And frankly, improvements in, I'll say, the pricing conditions in the market is very favorable, whether it's favorable for ourselves and our competitors, that's fine as well. In 2024, there are a number of situations where we declined to participate in providing a bid or participating in the RFPs because we didn't see pricing that reflected what we're trying to do for the business overall. We'll see how that plays out this year. But I think to the extent that it's favorable conditions, it certainly benefits us.

正如您所說，隨著我們不斷前進，我們看到兩個方面的業務都表現強勁。坦白說，我想說，市場定價條件的改善非常有利，無論對我們自己還是我們的競爭對手有利，都很好。2024 年，在許多情況下，我們拒絕參與投標或參與 RFP，因為我們發現定價無法反映我們為整個業務所做的事情。我們將看看今年的情況如何。但我認為，就有利條件而言，這肯定對我們有利。

Okay. Just to clarify, so pricing, you feel has been better as companies just focus more on margins. Is that the takeaway?

好的。需要澄清的是，由於公司更關注利潤率，因此您覺得定價更好了。這就是外送嗎？

I think I can only speak specifically for us, but I would say, absolutely. We've already seen that in the I'll call it, the portfolio of new business for 2024, which, again, transitions over essentially the next kind of 12 to 18 months but it is a higher margin business for us because we are very intentional about that.

我想我只能代表我們具體發言，但我會說，絕對如此。我們已經在我所說的 2024 年新業務組合中看到了這一點，該組合基本上會在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內發生轉變，但對於我們來說，這是一項利潤率更高的業務，因為我們對此非常有意。

Right, great. Thanks for that.

對，太好了。謝謝。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

So I wanted to start off with a question just given the strong performance and better organic growth, that was cited for Wealth and asset servicing, looking given the favorable trends that were cited, I was hoping you could speak to what drove the more subdued AUM and AUC growth relative to peers in 4Q? And are there any future plans to maybe include organic fee or asset growth targets in addition to the medium-term targets that you just unveiled?

因此，我想先問一個問題，鑑於財富和資產服務業務的強勁表現和更好的有機增長，鑑於所引用的有利趨勢，我希望您能談談是什麼原因導致第四季度的 AUM 和 AUC 增長相對於同行而言較為低迷？除了您剛剛公佈的中期目標之外，未來是否還有計劃包括有機費用或資產成長目標？

Yeah. Thanks for that question. Looking at asset servicing in particular, just take one issue off the table. It was not a result of any client losses. Our client activity was very good in the quarter. It's important to note that currency movements were about 80% of the sequential decline. We also have a pretty high exposure to certain markets like fixed income that were lower and the broader international markets also had some issues as well. So it was really more of that than anything else.

是的。謝謝你的提問。特別關注資產服務，只需解決一個問題即可。這並不是客戶損失的結果。本季我們的客戶活動非常好。值得注意的是，貨幣波動約佔連續跌幅的 80%。我們對某些市場的風險敞口也相當高，例如固定收益市場，這些市場的風險敞口較低，而且更廣泛的國際市場也存在一些問題。所以這確實比其他任何事情都更重要。

And regarding any potential plans to include future organic fee or asset growth targets as part of like the range of targets that you guys just revealed?

關於將未來有機費用或資產成長目標納入你們剛剛透露的一系列目標中的潛在計劃？

Not at this point. And part of it is just the, I'll call it, the calculation and determination of organic growth does involve estimates for the impacts of markets and currencies and things like that. So it's a great metric in KPI for us to drive the business at a granular level for us. But it's not, if you will, kind of a reportable number. And therefore, that's why we talk about it in the terms that we do.

目前還不行。其中一部分只是，我稱之為，有機成長的計算和確定確實涉及對市場和貨幣等因素影響的估計。因此，它是 KPI 中的一項重要指標，可以幫助我們在精細層面上推動業務發展。但如果你願意的話，這並不是一個可報告的數字。因此，這就是我們用這種方式談論它的原因。

Understood. And if I could squeeze one more, similar line of questioning to what Brennan asked on the medium-term targets. I actually want to drill down into pretax margin target, given you already achieved a 30% profitability level in the back half of this year, I heard along on this call about the commitment to drive better efficiency from here. I was hoping to get some perspective or context as to what informed the decision to set the bar at 30 and not something higher in terms of the longer-term objectives?

明白了。如果我可以再問一個問題，那麼我的問題與布倫南在中期目標問題上提出的問題類似。我實際上想深入研究稅前利潤率目標，鑑於你們在今年下半年已經實現了 30% 的盈利水平，我在這次電話會議上聽說了從現在開始提高效率的承諾。我希望得到一些觀點或背景，以了解是什麼促使您決定將標準設為 30，而不是在長期目標方面設定更高的標準？

So to your point, we hit 30% for the quarter, but we didn't hit 30% for the year. So we're still working our way into that range, which over extended time periods, we've been in the 30-plus percent pretax margin range. And the rationale is similar to what I mentioned with Brennan's question, which is we're trying to drive the combination of growth and returns.

所以正如您所說，我們本季達到了 30%，但全年沒有達到 30%。因此，我們仍在努力達到這個範圍，在較長的一段時間內，我們的稅前利潤率一直處於 30% 以上的範圍內。其基本原則與我在回答布倫南的問題時提到的類似，即我們正試圖推動成長與回報的結合。

So getting the margin up to some very high level, if you will, but doing so by essentially cutting off growth is not going to produce the greatest value for shareholders. And so we think that, that right combination is in that kind of 30-plus range. So if you said low 30s, that's the area we've seen where we can have that best combination of growth and returns.

因此，如果你願意的話，將利潤率提高到非常高的水平，但這樣做實際上會阻礙成長，這不會為股東帶來最大的價值。因此我們認為，正確的組合是在 30 以上的範圍內。因此，如果您說的是 30 多歲，那麼這就是我們所看到的可以實現最佳成長和回報組合的區域。

Understood. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

明白了。非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Sure.

當然。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

David, when you mentioned in response to one of the questions about Northern is focused on building a sustainable financial model. Can you through the cycles, can you define what that sustainable financial model is from your viewpoint?

大衛，當您回答有關北方的一個問題時提到，北方致力於建立可持續的金融模式。您能否透過這些週期，從您的角度定義可持續的財務模式是什麼？

Yeah, I mean obviously, it means you can't rely on factors you don't control, right? So when you think about expenses, that's obviously a huge focus, and you think about organic growth. Those are the two things you can spend a lot of your time making sure you control those elements. And so you're always going to get buffeted by external events.

是的，我的意思是，顯然，這意味著你不能依賴你無法控制的因素，對嗎？因此，當您考慮費用時，這顯然是一個重點，您會考慮有機增長。您需要花費大量時間來確保控制這兩件事中的這些元素。所以你總是會受到外在事件的衝擊。

There's nothing you can do about that. But you certainly can't predict it, and you definitely don't control it. So the more organic growth you've got built into your model, the more resiliency you've got in your financial model and that's sustainable through time. So that is the overall goal is to get that expense curve down and get the organic growth up so that we can weather the storm if there is one going forward.

對此你無能為力。但你肯定無法預測它，而且你肯定無法控制它。因此，您的模型中融入的有機成長越多，您的財務模型就越有彈性，並且可以持續很長時間。因此，總體目標是降低費用曲線並提高有機成長，以便我們能夠渡過難關（如果未來出現風暴）。

Very good. And then a more macro question for Mike and you, David. What are some of the optimism many investors, we all seem to be sharing this optimism about the outlook for your business as well as the markets in general for 2025?

非常好。然後我要問麥克和你一個更宏觀的問題，大衛。眾多投資人對您的業務前景以及 2025 年的整個市場抱持哪些樂觀態度？

The economy, we have a new administration coming in, as we all know. What are the risks that you guys keep your eyes on aside from the geopolitical global risks, which we all know about? But when you guys sit around at the end of the day and the outlook, again, appears to be optimistic, but what are the risks that you talk about and always keep your eyes on?

就經濟而言，眾所周知，我們迎來了新政府。除了我們都知道的地緣政治全球風險之外，你們還關注哪些風險？但是，當你們在一天結束時坐下來，前景再次顯得樂觀時，你們談論並始終關注的風險是什麼？

Sure. So it's interesting, Gerard, because it's basically, I'll say, the opposite of what Dave just said, right, which is we focus on the things we can control, and then I'll say, we worry about all these things that we can't control. And that's the nature of I'll say, the business we're in for our clients so that we are resilient, we are trying to look forward but also just being a market participant and trying to generate, obviously, financial returns as well.

當然。所以這很有趣，傑拉德，因為這基本上與戴夫剛才所說的相反，對吧，那就是我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情，然後我會說，我們擔心所有這些我們無法控制的事情。這就是我要說的，我們為客戶服務的本質，因此我們具有韌性，我們努力向前看，但同時也只是作為市場參與者，並努力產生財務回報。

And so the things that we focus on or are concerned about do relate to the macro environment and what could happen to the extent that markets are down significantly. How are we prepared for that? Again, not just financially, but also for our clients. Or to the extent that there are, I'll say, like operational risk in the environment that come as a result of greater volatility. How are we prepared for surge volumes in different parts of our business? So it's those types of things that are the greatest concern.

因此，我們關注或擔心的事情確實與宏觀環境以及市場大幅下跌時可能出現的情況有關。我們對此做了哪些準備？再次強調，這不僅對財務而言，對我們的客戶而言也是如此。或者在某種程度上，我想說，環境中的操作風險是由於更大的波動性而產生的。我們如何為不同業務部門的激增做好準備？因此，這些事情才是最令人擔憂的。

Certainly, central bank activity has a big impact on our business because it can affect the level of liquidity in the market, and it can also affect the rates that are earned and we're carrying, obviously, a large balance sheet. And when you think about time periods where we've had zero interest rates, or negative in parts of the globe, that puts a lot of pressure, again, not only on our clients, but on our financial model. And then when you see rates spike up, you get a different impact. So it's those types of things where it's less about, I'll say, predicting what's going to happen and more about just being prepared for what could happen.

當然，央行活動對我們的業務有很大影響，因為它會影響市場流動性水平，也會影響賺取的利率，而且我們顯然背負著龐大的資產負債表。當你想到我們所處的時期，或全球部分地區利率為零或為負值時，這不僅給我們的客戶帶來很大壓力，也給我們的財務模式帶來很大壓力。然後，當你看到利率飆升時，你會感受到不同的影響。所以，我想說，對於這類事情，我們不需要預測會發生什麼，而只需要為可能發生的事情做好準備。

Very good. Thank you, Michael.

非常好。謝謝你，麥可。

Yeah, thank you. And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Jennifer Childe, Director of Investor Relations.

是的，謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給投資人關係總監 Jennifer Childe。

Thank you, operator, and thanks everyone for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again the future.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天的加入我們。我們期待未來再次與您交談。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們非常感謝您的參與。祝您有個愉快的一天。