Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Northern Trust Corporation First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加北方信託公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Childe, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Jennifer Childe。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Northern Trust Corporation's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on our call this morning is Mike O'Grady, our Chairman and CEO; Dave Fox, our Chief Financial Officer; John Landers, our Controller; and Trace Stegeman from our Investor Relations team. Our first quarter earnings press release and financial trends report are both available on our website at northerntrust.com. Also on our website, you will find our quarterly earnings review presentation, which we will use to guide today's conference call.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。歡迎參加北方信託公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike O'Grady；我們的首席財務官戴夫·福克斯 (Dave Fox)；我們的控制員約翰·蘭德斯 (John Landers)；以及我們投資者關係團隊的 Trace Stegeman。我們的第一季財報新聞稿和財務趨勢報告均可在我們的網站 northerntrust.com 上查閱。您還可以在我們的網站上找到我們的季度收益審查報告，我們將用它來指導今天的電話會議。

This April 22 call is being webcast live on northerntrust.com. The only authorized rebroadcast of this call is the replay that will be made available on our website through May 21. Northern Trust disclaims any continuing accuracy of the information provided in this call after today. Please refer to our safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements on Page 12 of the accompanying presentation which will apply to our commentary on this call.

4 月 22 日的電話會議將在 northerntrust.com 上進行網路直播。這次通話的唯一授權重播是將於 5 月 21 日之前在我們的網站上提供的重播。北方信託公司否認今天之後本次電話會議中提供的資訊將繼續保持準確性。請參閱隨附簡報第 12 頁中有關前瞻性聲明的安全港聲明，該聲明將適用於我們對本次電話會議的評論。

(Operator Instructions) Thank you again for joining us today. Let me turn the call over to Mike O'Grady.

（操作員指示）再次感謝您今天的加入我們。讓我把電話轉給麥克·奧格雷迪。

Thank you, Jennifer. Let me join in welcoming you to our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Our first quarter results demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business model. We generated our third consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage, driven by mid-single-digit growth in both trust fees and net interest income while managing expenses well. EPS, excluding notables, increased 13% and we generated a return on common equity of 13%, both while boosting capital levels meaningfully and returning $435 million to shareholders.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。讓我和大家一起歡迎您參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我們第一季的業績證明了我們商業模式的實力和彈性。我們連續第三個季度實現了正向經營槓桿，這得益於信託費用和淨利息收入均實現了中等個位數增長，同時費用得到了良好的管理。不包括重要股東的每股盈餘成長了 13%，普通股權益回報率為 13%，同時資本水準大幅提升，並向股東返還了 4.35 億美元。

Our results benefited from strong underlying market performance and elevated volatility levels, which drove strong capital markets activity late in the quarter and extended into April. Our performance also reflects continued progress implementing our One Northern Trust strategy, our road map for becoming a consistently high-performing company and producing meaningful value for all stakeholders.

我們的業績受益於強勁的基礎市場表現和較高的波動水平，這推動了本季末以及延續到 4 月份的強勁資本市場活動。我們的業績也反映了我們在實施「一個北方信託」策略方面取得的持續進展，這是我們成為一家持續高績效公司並為所有利益相關者創造有意義價值的路線圖。

Let me give you an update on our progress. First, optimize growth. We entered 2025 with good momentum, continuing to embed collaboration between our business units, leveraging the capabilities of the entire firm. We advanced our enterprise-wide growth initiatives, which align with key client needs and opportunities, including alternative investment solutions, family office services and liquidity solutions. We also concentrated on core initiatives within each of our business units.

讓我向您報告一下我們的進展。一是優化成長。我們以良好的動能邁入2025年，持續加強業務部門之間的協作，發揮整個公司的能力。我們推動了全企業的成長計劃，以滿足關鍵客戶的需求和機遇，包括另類投資解決方案、家族辦公室服務和流動性解決方案。我們也專注於每個業務部門的核心舉措。

As it relates to alternatives, fundraising is particularly strong within our Asset Management segment and we are on track to nearly double our capital raise versus prior year averages. Within Asset Servicing, new business activity in the first quarter was brisk, particularly within private markets where our technology and operational expertise have been consistent differentiators. During the quarter, we were selected as the global outsourced private capital administration provider for Igneo Infrastructure Partners, a $20 billion alternative manager specializing in global infrastructure investments.

就替代方案而言，我們的資產管理部門的融資尤其強勁，我們預計將資本籌集額度提高近一倍，達到去年平均水平。在資產服務領域，第一季的新業務活動活躍，特別是在私人市場，我們的技術和營運專業知識一直是其獨特的優勢。本季度，我們被選為 Igneo Infrastructure Partners 的全球外包私人資本管理提供商，Igneo Infrastructure Partners 是一家專門從事全球基礎設施投資的 200 億美元另類投資管理公司。

Expanding upon our long-standing relationship with private equity firm Alchemy Partners, we were awarded the asset servicing business for a new $1 billion special opportunities fund launch. Semi-liquid funds and the democratization of private markets globally remain an important area of focus, and we extended our leading market share in the quarter. Northern Trust is currently supporting over half of the approved long-term asset funds or LTAF in the UK with an additional 10 in the pipeline.

在擴大與私募股權公司 Alchemy Partners 的長期合作關係的基礎上，我們獲得了新的 10 億美元特殊機會基金的資產服務業務。半流動性基金和全球私人市場的民主化仍然是我們關注的重要領域，我們在本季擴大了領先的市場份額。北方信託 (Northern Trust) 目前支持英國超過一半已獲批准的長期資產基金 (LTAF)，另有 10 個基金正在籌備中。

Building upon the strength of our upper tier wealth business, our Wealth Management segment formally rolled out a dedicated ultra high net worth segment, which we've named family office solutions, focusing on wealthy individuals and families with more than $100 million in net worth. Already, we've seen very good client traction. Performance in our Global Family Office also continues to be strong. New business activity remained robust, particularly within international markets. During the quarter, we onboarded several marquee relationships in EMEA, strengthening our position as one of the leading administrators of private investment office assets in Europe.

憑藉我們高端財富業務的優勢，我們的財富管理部門正式推出了專門的超高淨值部門，我們將其命名為家族辦公室解決方案，專注於淨資產超過 1 億美元的富裕個人和家庭。我們已經看到了非常好的客戶吸引力。我們的全球家族辦公室表現也持續強勁。新業務活動依然強勁，尤其是在國際市場。本季度，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區建立了多個重要合作關係，鞏固了我們作為歐洲領先的私人投資辦公資產管理者之一的地位。

As it relates to liquidity, we've seen a healthy increase in deposit levels as a number of clients have taken a risk-off approach, reallocating portfolios and raising cash. In Asset Management, we generated positive liquidity flows in the first quarter, continuing the trend we've seen over the past 9 quarters. Beyond liquidity, our suite of actively managed offerings, which skew towards high-quality, low volatility and tax-efficient products tend to perform very well in the current environment, and we're seeing significant client interest.

就流動性而言，我們看到存款水準健康成長，因為許多客戶採取了規避風險的方式，重新分配投資組合並籌集現金。在資產管理方面，我們在第一季產生了正的流動性流動，延續了過去 9 個季度的趨勢。除了流動性之外，我們的一系列主動管理產品偏向於高品質、低波動性和稅收效率高的產品，在當前環境下往往表現非常良好，我們看到了客戶的極大興趣。

We had $1.7 billion of inflows into our custom tax optimized SMAs, which are capitalizing on market volatility to deliver increased after-tax value. We're also broadening our ETF platform, having recently filed to launch 11 new fixed income ETFs later this year. Meaningful progress was also made against our other 2 strategic pillars: strengthening resiliency and managing risk and driving productivity. We continue on the multiyear effort to uplift our risk and control system, we transitioned from design to implementation of new capabilities that will better enable us to systematically anticipate, identify, manage and control risks across all areas of our organization.

我們的海關稅收優化 SMA 流入了 17 億美元的資金，這些 SMA 利用市場波動來提高稅後價值。我們也正在擴大我們的 ETF 平台，最近已申請在今年稍後推出 11 檔新的固定收益 ETF。我們在另外兩大策略支柱也取得了有意義的進展：增強彈性、管理風險和提高生產力。我們繼續多年努力提升我們的風險和控制系統，我們從設計過渡到實施新的能力，這將使我們能夠更好地系統地預測、識別、管理和控制組織所有領域的風險。

We also advanced along our technology journey, driving towards a more stable, scalable, safe and secure environment for our stakeholders. Productivity initiatives for 2025 are well on track, fueling further critical investments in growth. Within the office of the COO, we're reengineering our operating model to enhance efficiency, standardized services and streamline processes. At the same time, we're making continued headway with workforce initiatives and third-party spend, including pursuing further vendor savings.

我們也在技術進步的道路上不斷前進，致力於為利害關係人創造更穩定、可擴展、安全的環境。2025 年生產力計畫進展順利，為進一步促進成長提供關鍵投資。在營運長辦公室內，我們正在重新設計我們的營運模式，以提高效率、標準化服務並簡化流程。同時，我們在勞動力計劃和第三方支出方面不斷取得進展，包括進一步節省供應商成本。

To wrap up, we're off to a solid start to the year. While we face a highly challenging macroeconomic and market backdrop, we enter the current environment well positioned to navigate a wide range of outcomes. Our balance sheet strength allow us to meet the evolving needs of our clients while pressing ahead with our strategic objectives.

總而言之，我們今年的開局很好。儘管我們面臨極具挑戰性的宏觀經濟和市場背景，但我們已做好充分準備進入當前環境，以應對各種結果。我們的資產負債表實力使我們能夠滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，同時推進我們的策略目標。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dave to review the financials. Dave?

說完這些，我將把財務狀況交給戴夫來審查。戴夫？

Thanks, Mike. Let me join Jennifer and Mike, and welcome you to our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Let's discuss the financial results of the quarter, starting on Page 4. This morning, we reported first quarter net income of $392 million, earnings per share of $1.90 and our return on average common equity was 13%.

謝謝，麥克。讓我和 Jennifer 以及 Mike 一起歡迎你們參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。讓我們從第 4 頁開始討論本季的財務結果。今天上午，我們報告第一季淨收入為 3.92 億美元，每股收益為 1.90 美元，平均普通股權益回報率為 13%。

As Mike mentioned, we delivered our third consecutive quarter of positive total operating leverage. We also reported our fourth consecutive quarter of positive trust fee operating leverage, both excluding notables. Relative to the prior year, currency movements unfavorably impacted our revenue growth by approximately 20 basis points and favorably impacted our expense growth by approximately 50 basis points. Currency movements were immaterial relative to the prior period. As a reminder, year-over-year comparisons reflect 1 fewer day this year as last year's first quarter included an extra day in February due to leap year.

正如麥克所提到的，我們連續第三個季度實現了正的總營業槓桿。我們也報告了連續第四個季度的正信託費用營運槓桿（不包括顯著部分）。與前一年相比，貨幣變動對我們的收入成長產生了約 20 個基點的不利影響，對我們的費用成長產生了約 50 個基點的有利影響。與前一時期相比，貨幣變動並不重要。提醒一下，由於閏年，去年第一季 2 月多了一天，因此今年的同比天數減少了 1 天。

Trust, investment and other servicing fees totaled $1.2 billion, a 1% sequential decline and a 6% increase compared to last year. Net interest income on an FTE basis was $574 million, essentially flat compared to the prior period and up 7% from a year ago. Our assets under custody and administration were up 1% sequentially and up 3% as compared to the prior year. Our assets under management were flat sequentially and up 7% year-over-year.

信託、投資和其他服務費總計 12 億美元，季減 1%，比去年同期成長 6%。以全職當量計算的淨利息收入為 5.74 億美元，與上期基本持平，比去年同期增加 7%。我們的託管和管理資產環比成長 1%，比上年增長 3%。我們的管理資產環比持平，年增 7%。

Overall, our credit quality remains very strong. Excluding notable items in all periods, other noninterest income was down 9% sequentially and down 4% over the prior year. Revenue was down sequentially 1% and up 6% on a year-over-year basis. Expenses were up 3% sequentially and up 4.8% over the prior year, and earnings per share decreased 16% sequentially but increased 13% compared to the prior year.

總體而言，我們的信用品質仍然非常強勁。剔除所有期間的顯著項目，其他非利息收入較上季下降 9%，較去年同期下降 4%。營收季減 1%，年增 6%。費用較上年成長 3%，較上年增長 4.8%，每股收益環比下降 16%，但較上年增長 13%。

Turning to our asset servicing results on Page 5. Our Asset Servicing business performed well in the quarter. Transaction volumes were healthy. Capital Markets activities were up double digits over the prior year and new business growth continues to be booked at attractive margins. Assets under custody and administration for asset servicing clients were $15.8 trillion at quarter end, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase.

前往第 5 頁的資產服務結果。我們的資產服務業務在本季表現良好。交易量健康。資本市場活動較上年同期成長了兩位數，新業務繼續以可觀的利潤率成長。截至季末，資產服務客戶託管和管理的資產為 15.8 兆美元，年增 3%。

Asset servicing fees totaled $672 million. Custody and fund administration fees were $453 million, up 4% year-over-year, largely reflecting the impact from strong underlying equity markets and new business generation.

資產服務費總額為6.72億美元。託管和基金管理費用為 4.53 億美元，年增 4%，主要反映了強勁的基礎股票市場和新業務的影響。

Year-over-year comparisons were dampened by the client exits we discussed in the second quarter of last year. Other fees were $48 million, up 7% year-over-year largely reflecting growth in our front office solutions product as well as higher seasonal benefit payments.

由於我們在去年第二季討論過客戶退出，年比表現有所下降。其他費用為 4,800 萬美元，年增 7%，主要反映了前台解決方案產品的成長以及季節性福利支付的增加。

Assets under management for asset servicing clients were $1.2 trillion, up 7% over the prior year. Investment management fees within Asset Servicing were $153 million, up a strong 9% year-over-year due to favorable markets and new business activities.

資產服務客戶管理的資產為 1.2 兆美元，比上年增長 7%。資產服務中的投資管理費為 1.53 億美元，由於市場有利和新業務活動，年增 9%。

Now moving to our Wealth Management business on Page 6. Wealth Management also had a healthy quarter with continued strength in our Global Family Office business. Assets under management for our wealth management clients were $447 billion at quarter end, up 6% year-over-year. Trust, investment and other servicing fees for wealth management clients were $542 million, up 8% year-over-year, primarily due to strong equity markets.

現在轉到第 6 頁的財富管理業務。財富管理本季也表現良好，全球家族辦公室業務持續強勁。截至本季末，我們為財富管理客戶管理的資產為 4,470 億美元，年增 6%。財富管理客戶的信託、投資和其他服務費用為 5.42 億美元，年增 8%，主要得益於股票市場的強勁成長。

Moving to Page 7 on our balance sheet and net interest income trends. Our average earning assets were up 3% on a linked quarter basis, fueled by higher deposit levels, which drove an increase in cash held with the Fed and other central banks. The duration of our securities portfolio remained at 1.6 years and the total balance sheet duration continues to be less than 1 year.

前往第 7 頁，查看我們的資產負債表和淨利息收入趨勢。我們的平均生息資產環比增長了 3%，這得益於存款水準的提高，從而推動了聯準會和其他中央銀行持有的現金增加。我們的證券投資組合的久期維持在1.6年，總資產負債表久期持續少於1年。

Net interest income on an FTE basis was $574 million, flat with the fourth quarter, and our net interest margin was 1.69%, down 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter. NII outperformed our expectations, largely due to higher-than-expected deposit levels. Average deposits were $116 billion, up 3% compared to fourth quarter levels. Within this, interest-bearing deposits increased by 4% and noninterest-bearing deposits decreased by 3% but remained at 15% of the overall mix. Deposit pricing was largely as expected.

以全職當量計算的淨利息收入為 5.74 億美元，與第四季持平，淨利差為 1.69%，季減 2 個基點。NII 的表現超出了我們的預期，這主要是由於存款水準高於預期。平均存款為 1,160 億美元，比第四季水準成長 3%。其中，計息存款增加4%，無利息存款減少3%，但仍佔存款總額的15%。存款定價基本上符合預期。

Institutional deposit betas remained high and wealth deposit betas were stable. The quarterly contribution from transactional and other items returned to more normal levels.

機構存款貝塔係數維持高位，財富存款貝他係數維持穩定。交易和其他項目的季度貢獻恢復到更正常的水平。

Turning to our expenses on Page 8. Noninterest expense was approximately $1.4 billion in the first quarter, up 3% sequentially and 4% as compared to the prior year. Excluding notable items in the prior period, as listed on the slide, expenses in the first quarter were up 4.8% year-over-year, an improvement from the fourth quarter's 5.5% year-over-year increase.

轉到第 8 頁的我們的開支。第一季非利息支出約 14 億美元，季增 3%，年增 4%。除去幻燈片中列出的前期重要項目，第一季的支出年增 4.8%，高於第四季 5.5% 的年增率。

Let's go back and review our core expenses from the quarter. Compensation expense was up 8% sequentially, largely reflecting the impact of our seasonal equity incentive grants. Comp expense increased 3% over the prior year resulting from modest levels of hiring associated with our modernization initiative and underlying growth in the business.

讓我們回顧一下本季的核心支出。薪酬費用較上季成長 8%，主要反映了我們季節性股權激勵授予的影響。由於我們現代化計劃和業務潛在成長相關的招募水準適中，因此補償費用比去年增加了 3%。

Outside services expense increased 7% relative to the prior period largely due to higher levels of spend associated with our modernization and resiliency initiative, but it was down 3% sequentially as the same spend started to flatten out. Equipment and software expense increased 11% year-over-year, mostly related to higher depreciation and amortization expense and costs associated with our cloud journey.

外部服務費用較上一季增加了 7%，這主要是由於與我們的現代化和彈性計劃相關的支出水平較高，但隨著相同支出開始趨於平穩，外部服務費用環比下降 3%。設備和軟體費用年增 11%，主要與更高的折舊和攤銷費用以及與我們的雲端之旅相關的成本有關。

Turning to Page 9. Our capital levels and regulatory ratios remained strong in the quarter. We continue to operate at levels well above our required regulatory minimums. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio under the standardized approach increased by 50 basis points on a linked-quarter basis to 12.9%, driven by capital accretion and a decline in RWA. Our Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8%, down 10 basis points from the prior quarter.

翻到第 9 頁。本季我們的資本水準和監管比率依然保持強勁。我們的營運水準持續遠高於監管最低要求。受資本增值和風險加權資產下降的推動，我們標準化方法下的普通股一級資本充足率較上季上升 50 個基點，達到 12.9%。我們的一級槓桿率為 8%，較上一季下降 10 個基點。

At quarter end, our unrealized pretax loss on available-for-sale securities was $527 million, and we returned $435 million to common shareholders in the quarter through cash dividends of $148 million and common stock repurchases of $287 million, reflecting a payout ratio of 116%.

截至季末，我們可供出售證券的未實現稅前損失為 5.27 億美元，本季我們透過 1.48 億美元的現金股利和 2.87 億美元的普通股回購向普通股股東返還了 4.35 億美元，派息率為 116%。

Turning to our guidance. Starting with expenses. We continue to expect our total operating expense growth to be below 5% for the full year, excluding notable items in both periods.

轉向我們的指導。從費用開始。我們仍然預計，全年總營運費用成長率將低於 5%（不包括兩個時期的顯著項目）。

Turning to NII. Given our first quarter outperformance, coupled with recent deposit growth, we're raising our full year guidance from low single-digit growth to low to mid-single-digit growth. This assumes continued strong deposit levels, stable deposit mix, meaning we wouldn't expect absolute levels of NIB to move materially from current levels, but the percentage of overall mix could change. Market implied forward curves as of this week, and relatively stable deposit pricing.

轉向 NII。鑑於我們第一季的優異表現，加上近期存款的成長，我們將全年預期從低個位數成長上調至低至中個位數成長。這假設存款水準持續強勁，存款組合穩定，這意味著我們預期 NIB 的絕對水準不會從目前水準發生重大變化，但整體組合的百分比可能會改變。截至本週，市場隱含遠期曲線和存款定價相對穩定。

And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning and thanks so much for taking my questions.

大家好，早安，非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Sure.

當然。

So the -- I wanted to start on a question on the deposit beta certainly, the NII guidance and the modest upward revision is certainly encouraging. The cumulative beta of 86% so far this easing cycle, it certainly surprised positively, especially relative to the 72% beta we saw during the period of Fed tightening. I was hoping you could speak to what deposit beta assumption is underpinning that guidance. Just trying to gauge what sort of deposit betas we can underwrite sustainably if we get for additional cuts consistent with the forward curve?

所以 — — 我想從存款貝塔係數的問題開始，當然，NII 指導和適度上調肯定是令人鼓舞的。本寬鬆週期迄今為止的累積貝塔值為 86%，這無疑令人感到驚喜，特別是相對於聯準會緊縮期間我們所看到的 72% 貝塔值而言。我希望您能談談支撐該指導意見的存款貝塔假設是什麼。只是想衡量一下，如果我們獲得與遠期曲線一致的額外削減，我們可以可持續承保哪種存款貝塔係數？

Yeah, our deposit bait has remained relatively Stable if you look historically, but I would say that it's obviously going to be higher for the institutional business, closer to 100% and then lower for wealth, 60% to 70% roughly. I will also point out though that we have spent a lot of time on our deposit pricing. I mentioned this in the last earnings call and thinking a little bit about tearing and the size of our deposits where we get our deposits. So I think having spent more time doing that, I think it's really. It's benefit of the deposit base on the positive side.

是的，如果從歷史上看，我們的存款誘餌一直保持相對穩定，但我想說，對於機構業務來說，這個比例顯然會更高，接近 100%，而對於財富來說，這個比例會更低，大約為 60% 到 70%。我還要指出的是，我們在存款定價上花費了大量時間。我在上次收益電話會議上提到了這一點，並稍微思考了一下我們的存款規模以及我們從哪裡獲得存款。所以我認為花更多的時間來做這件事，我認為這是真的。從積極的方面來說，這對存款基礎有利。

That's great. And for my follow-up, just on the fee outlook and the impact on expenses, just given you're going to have to absorb some of the negative marks related to month and quarter lag pricing, both in the servicing side as well as in the wealth business. Dave, it sounds like you were reaffirming the 5% or better expense guide but wanted to better understand how much flex you have if those fee pressures intensify, and we don't necessarily see an inflection or recovery in equity markets over the course of the year?

那太棒了。我的後續問題是，僅關於費用前景和對支出的影響，因為您必須吸收與月度和季度滯後定價相關的一些負面影響，無論是在服務方面還是在財富業務方面。戴夫，聽起來你好像在重申 5% 或更高的費用指南，但想更好地了解如果這些費用壓力加劇，你有多少靈活性，而且我們不一定會在今年看到股票市場的轉折點或復甦？

Yes. We are dedicated to keeping that expense growth rate below 5%. I'd point out that at the beginning of the year, as we were doing our planning, we spent a lot of time identifying discretionary and nondiscretionary spending. So we know exactly what we have to do to flex. And I think you also heard me say in the previous call that we're trying to build a more flexible business model that can basically adjust itself as market conditions either get better or get worse, right?

是的。我們致力於將費用成長率維持在5%以下。我想指出的是，在年初制定計劃時，我們花了很多時間來確定可自由支配的支出和非可自由支配的支出。所以我們清楚知道我們必須做什麼才能實現目標。我想你們也聽到我在之前的電話會議中說過，我們正在嘗試建立一種更靈活的商業模式，這種模式基本上可以隨著市場狀況的變好或變壞而自我調整，對嗎？

So we know where we have to do it. We know what our levers are. They're going to be, obviously, in the consulting side, outside services, technology spend, and then potentially even on incentives as well.

所以我們知道我們必須在哪裡做這件事。我們知道我們的槓桿是什麼。顯然，他們會涉足諮詢領域、外部服務、技術支出，甚至可能涉及激勵措施。

So we've got a management team, I think, that's really driving towards having strong positive operating leverage through all the cycles. And that's why I'm willing to say we're going to obviously stay within that below 5%. Currency creates a bit of a headwind for us. From my perspective, it's neutral in the sense that it helps us on the revenue side and hurts us on the expense side, and that's obviously going to be something we have to manage more proactively. But at the end of the day, we don't control it.

所以我認為，我們有一個管理團隊，他們真正致力於在所有周期中實現強大的積極經營槓桿。這就是為什麼我願意說我們顯然會將這一比例保持在 5% 以下。貨幣為我們帶來了一些阻力。從我的角度來看，它是中性的，因為它在收入方面對我們有幫助，而在支出方面則有害，這顯然是我們必須更積極管理的事情。但最終，我們無法控制它。

And we're still -- based on the current exchange rates, we still think we can get to that 5% or below.

而且我們仍然——根據目前的匯率，我們仍然認為我們可以達到 5% 或以下的水平。

Very helpful Color. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

非常有用的顏色。非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Morning.

早晨。

Mike, during your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you had some capital markets activity that was pretty hot towards the end of the quarter and then it led into April. Could you talk a little bit about what type of capital markets activity you're referring to there? And has it continued into April meaning now? Thank you.

麥克，在您準備好的發言中，您提到本季末以及 4 月份，資本市場活動非常活躍。能否稍微談談您所指的資本市場活動類型？這種現像是否已經持續到四月了？謝謝。

Sure. So the level of volatility in the markets obviously has different impacts. One of them is that, in general, it does tend to drive more what we would consider capital markets activity for us, which would be foreign exchange and then also brokerage. And in particular, I would say, within that is our integrated trading services where we are essentially the outsourced trading desk for asset manager clients.

當然。因此，市場波動程度顯然會產生不同的影響。其中之一是，總體而言，它確實傾向於推動我們所認為的資本市場活動，即外匯和經紀業務。特別是，我想說，其中包括我們的綜合交易服務，我們本質上是資產管理客戶的外包交易櫃檯。

And so as they see repositioning happening in their portfolios, that's something that flows through to us. So it was a little bit, as I was saying, in the first quarter and more it's just the momentum that's carried into April here, and we'll see where it goes from there.

因此，當他們看到自己的投資組合發生重新定位時，我們也會受到影響。所以，正如我所說的，在第一季以及更多時候，這種勢頭一直延續到了四月份，我們將拭​​目以待它接下來的發展方向。

Okay. Got it. And then a follow-up question is on the Family Office Solutions, which launched this quarter. Is that right? Did I get that right?

好的。知道了。後續問題是關於本季推出的家族辦公室解決方案。是嗎？我說得對嗎？

You got it right.

你說對了。

Okay. So can you talk a little bit about your plans for this new what should we call it, sleeve offering, segment? I mean, you've long had this capability set, but by putting it together in this way, it would be helpful to understand what -- how you see the drivers from here in terms of rebranding within your current client set versus attracting new customers? And is this something that you would be taking beyond the US?Thank you.

好的。那麼，您能否稍微談談您對這個新的（我們應該稱之為“袖套產品”）部分的計劃？我的意思是，您早就擁有了這種能力，但是透過以這種方式將它們組合在一起，將有助於理解——您如何看待從現有客戶群中重塑品牌與吸引新客戶的角度看這裡的驅動因素？你會把這個帶到美國以外的地方嗎？謝謝你。

Sure. And you have it right there, Betsy, as to how we're looking at this, which is from a capability perspective, we have family office capabilities as part of our Global Family Office business and have been very successful in serving clients and growing the business on that front.

當然。貝琪，您說得對，從能力角度來看，我們如何看待這個問題，我們的家族辦公室能力是我們全球家族辦公室業務的一部分，並且在為客戶提供服務和發展業務方面非常成功。

And then from a segment perspective, the ultra high net worth segment, so think about $100 million and above, we've also been very successful in serving that segment of clients. And what this is about is trying to deliver that capability set of family office services to the ultra high net worth segment. So right now, for an ultra high net worth client for the most part, we're providing a very bespoke service offering to them. They're surrounded and it's a high level of service for that client base. And yet we have clients in that segment that are looking to outsource more of those activities to us, and it's a broader set.

然後從細分市場的角度來看，超高淨值細分市場，也就是 1 億美元及以上的客戶，我們在服務這一細分客戶群方面也非常成功。這樣做的目的是嘗試向超高淨值人群提供家族辦公室服務。因此，目前，對於大多數超高淨值客戶，我們都為他們提供非常客製化的服務。他們被包圍著，這對客戶群來說是高水準的服務。然而，我們在該領域的客戶希望將更多的此類活動外包給我們，而且範圍更廣。

So beyond what you would think about as far as traditional wealth advisory trust, fiduciary, banking, they're also looking for a more robust reporting capability. They're looking for outsourced bill payment. They're looking for more of an OCIO type investment service. So it's those capabilities that we're already providing to family offices, just being able to do it on an outsourced basis for ultra high net worth clients.

因此，除了您所想到的傳統財富諮詢信託、受託人和銀行業務之外，他們還在尋求更強大的報告能力。他們正在尋找外包帳單支付。他們正在尋找更多 OCIO 類型的投資服務。因此，我們已經向家族辦公室提供了這些功能，只是能夠以外包的方式為超高淨值客戶提供服務。

And to your point, this is both the opportunity to improve or enhance the service to existing ultra high net worth clients, but absolutely an ability for us to grow that base of clients with these services.

正如您所說，這不僅是改善或增強現有超高淨值客戶服務的機會，也是我們利用這些服務擴大客戶群的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

肯‧烏斯丁（Ken Usdin），自主研究。

Hey guys, good morning. Nice to see the little incremental buyback. Just wondering and now even with an even higher CET1 ratio at 12.9%. I know you had previously talked about doing greater than the 78% total capital return you did last year. Can you talk about your comfort with that? Or just given the environment and where capital still is going, could you still move that up forward more and get more back to shareholders? Thanks.

大家好，早安。很高興看到小幅增量回購。只是想知道，現在 CET1 比率甚至更高，達到 12.9%。我知道您之前曾談到要實現比去年 78% 更高的總資本回報率。你能談談你對此有何感受嗎？或者僅僅考慮到環境和資本的流向，你還能進一步提高這個水準並為股東帶來更多回報嗎？謝謝。

Yes. So I'll take a crack at that. You know we love our flexibility and it's hard on a point in time to know exactly where you're going to land, particularly in uncertain markets, you want to make sure you're there for your clients. And so it trended up this quarter. There's obviously some room to take it down.

是的。所以我會嘗試一下。你知道我們喜歡我們的靈活性，但在某個時間點很難確切地知道你將要到達哪裡，特別是在不確定的市場中，你想確保你能為你的客戶服務。因此本季呈現上升趨勢。顯然還有一定的空間可以拆除。

And I will remind you that we did pay out 116% of earnings, which is insignificant versus the 90% we did in Q1. So range is 11% to 12%, that hasn't changed. We do watch our capital levels compared to our peers. And so we like the higher payout levels I think going forward of around 100% could be something that we could aim more towards going forward.

我要提醒大家的是，我們確實支付了 116% 的收益，但與第一季的 90% 相比，這並不算多。因此範圍是 11% 到 12%，沒有變化。與同業相比，我們確實關注我們的資本水準。因此，我們喜歡更高的支付水平，我認為未來 100% 左右可能是我們未來可以努力實現的目標。

Makes sense. Great. And a follow-up on the expense side. So expenses to trust fees being around 118, about flat year-over-year. I know you have the long-term goal, 105, 110, and I know there's a direction of travel that you're aspiring for.

有道理。偉大的。以及費用方面的後續情況。因此信託費用支出約 118，與去年同期持平。我知道你有一個長期目標，105，110，我知道你有一個嚮往的旅行方向。

But given Stephen's prior comments about the market headwinds that you're facing, do you expect to see directional improvement there as we move forward? And I guess there's a push and pull with as you already mentioned, you're trying to get the expense growth rate lower. So just how do we just think about that? Thanks.

但考慮到史蒂芬先前對您所面臨的市場逆風的評論，您是否預計隨著我們向前發展，市場會出現方向性的改善？我想，正如您所提到的，您正試圖降低費用成長率，這其中存在著推拉因素。那我們該如何思考這個問題呢？謝謝。

Yes. Well, there's obviously two components to that ratio. In the trust fee environment right now, given what's happening in the capital market is going to be something that we -- again, we don't control. What I try to focus people on is organic trust fee growth and organic expenses. Those are the only things that we really have pretty much complete control over.

是的。嗯，這個比率顯然有兩個組成部分。在目前的信託費用環境下，考慮到資本市場正在發生的事情，我們將無法控制。我試圖讓人們關注的是有機信託費用成長和有機支出。這些是我們真正能夠完全控制的唯一事物。

So what we try to do is drive those down as much as we possibly can. And then we have to just confront whatever market environment that we have at the time.

因此，我們嘗試做的就是盡可能地降低這些影響。然後我們必須面對當時所面臨的市場環境。

And there are certain things that are going to sort of -- we're just got to accept them. So the more we drive down the organic side and drive up the trust fees that we're going to be in better shape. So that's sort of how we think about it. And then it all ends up being in the expenses to trust fees. But again, that doesn't -- that includes all the market gyrations that are in there as well.

有些事情是必然的──我們必須接受它們。因此，我們越是降低有機成本並提高信託費用，我們的狀況就會越好。這就是我們對此的看法。最後這些都變成了信託費用。但同樣，這並不包括其中的所有市場波動。

And clearly, our targets are much lower than where we currently are.

顯然，我們的目標比目前低得多。

Got it, thank you, Dave.

明白了，謝謝你，戴夫。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

Hi. Just some clarification on your other answers. So family office solutions, you have global family office, that's one-fifth of your wealth revenues. So family office solutions, what do you imagine as the total addressable market? How much of that of your current family office revenues? Is that today -- what geographies are you targeting?

你好。只是對您的其他答案進行一些澄清。因此，家族辦公室解決方案，您擁有全球家族辦公室，這是您財富收入的五分之一。那麼，您認為家族辦公室解決方案的整體可尋址市場是怎樣的？這佔您目前家族辦公室收入的多少？那是今天嗎—您的目標市場是哪些地區？

Are you hiring people for that? Because it seems like you certainly talk a lot about this, especially relative to its size in terms of revenue contribution. So if you could just flesh that out a little bit more. Thanks.

你們為此僱用人員嗎？因為看起來你確實談論了很多這個問題，特別是相對於其在收入貢獻方面的規模。所以如果你能更詳細地闡述這一點的話。謝謝。

Sure. So as far as the addressable market, the ultra-high net worth market very large. And if you look at just our client base, the number of clients that would fall into this category is in the hundreds, kind of 300 to 400 existing clients that would fit this profile. I don't have, I'll say, a percentage of revenue number for you on that front. And so it's already a large client base for us.

當然。就目標市場而言，超高淨值市場非常大。如果你只看我們的客戶群，那麼屬於這一類別的客戶數量就有數百個，大約有 300 到 400 個現有客戶符合這一條件。就這方面而言，我無法提供給您一個收入百分比的數字。所以對我們來說這已經是一個龐大的客戶群了。

It's just one that we think with the growth in that market and our brand in that market and our capabilities. It's one that we can both grow with the market, but also take share in doing that.

我們認為這只是隨著該市場的成長、我們的品牌在該市場的發展以及我們的能力而發生的。我們不僅可以與市場共同成長，還可以從中分一杯羹。

And then to your point on hiring people, absolutely are adding resources to this. It is a different model than what we've had where in this case here, as I mentioned, it's like an outsourced family office capability. And so the primary interface for those clients is essentially the quarter back for that relationship. So in a family office situation, that person is an employee, if you will, of the family who's directing all that activity. In this case here, that's a Northern Trust employee, who is the quarterback or the Director of all of those activities.

然後關於你提到的招募人員，絕對會為此增加資源。這是一個與我們以往的模式不同的模式，正如我所提到的，它就像一個外包的家族辦公室能力。因此，這些客戶的主要介面本質上是這種關係的支持者。因此，在家族辦公室中，如果您願意的話，這個人就是家族的僱員，負責指導所有活動。在這種情況下，這是北方信託公司的員工，他是所有這些活動的負責人或主管。

We absolutely have people that do that now. But as we're growing this business, we are adding additional talent to be able to continue to resource the growth there.

我們現在絕對有人這樣做。但隨著我們業務的成長，我們正在增加更多人才，以便能夠繼續為業務成長提供資源。

And then I would just also add to it, there are also technology capabilities that are a part of this. So for the family office business, that's all delivered through a comprehensive technology platform, if you will, where we act as essentially the overall integrator of the various types of technology for a family office, and in this case here, to be able to provide that on a more a la carte basis, if you will, for the ultra-high net worth clients, there is some technology build that we're investing in as well.

然後我還要補充一點，其中也包括技術能力。因此，對於家族辦公室業務而言，所有這些都是透過一個綜合的技術平台來實現的，如果你願意的話，我們基本上充當家族辦公室各種技術的整體集成商，在這種情況下，為了能夠以更點菜的方式為超高淨值客戶提供這些服務，如果你願意的話，我們也在投資一些技術建設。

So family office solutions, Northern would kind of be the CFO on behalf of the family as opposed to the existing family office.

因此，在家族辦公室解決方案中，Northern 將成為代表家族的財務官，而不是現有的家族辦公室。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Got it. And the other question relates to -- relates to the question about capital. I mean you have so much CET1, it went up so much more again, you're so far above your minimum. On the one hand, I think a lot of your stakeholders like that, you survived the great depression.

好的。知道了。另一個問題與資本問題有關。我的意思是，你的 CET1 太多了，它又漲得更多了，遠遠超過了你的最低標準。一方面，我認為你們的許多利害關係人喜歡你們在大蕭條中倖存下來。

You were 1 or 2 big banks that didn't cut the dividend during the global financial crisis. You like that perception trust and resiliency. I get it.

在全球金融危機期間，只有一兩家大銀行沒有削減股利。您喜歡這種感知信任和彈性。我得到它。

On the other hand, it's hard to know where that line is between having enough for that resiliency and having so much that you have some trapped capital. So what are your thoughts about acquisitions or accelerating the buyback? I know that's already come up? Or -- and what kind of deregulatory benefits are that you could potentially get under the new regime? Thanks.

另一方面，很難知道在擁有足夠的彈性和擁有太多的彈性以致於有一些資本被困之間的界限在哪裡。那麼您對於收購或加速回購有何看法？我知道這已經發生了？或者—在新制度下，您可能會獲得什麼樣的放鬆管制的好處？謝謝。

Sure. So your preamble there, Mike covered a lot of the things that I would start with as well. So all that said, we are in a very good position from a capital perspective. To the extent that we thought that there was something inorganic that we could do, which would be a good deployment of that capital, we would consider it. I would say at this point, that's not a priority on that front.

當然。因此，在你的序言中，麥克涵蓋了許多我也會開始討論的內容。總而言之，從資本角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位。如果我們認為我們可以做一些非有機的事情，這將是對資本的良好配置，那麼我們會考慮。我想說，目前這不是這方面的優先事項。

That's why we are in a position to do higher repurchases.

這就是我們能夠進行更高回購的原因。

As Dave mentioned, in the quarter, we were over 100%, all else equal as we go forward here, we think that 100% is the right level to think about. And to your point, as far as any changes in the capital regime, we'll start with what we think is the necessary amount of capital. But we've also talked previously about the importance of being at or above the level of some of our peers. So to the extent that it changes within the industry, that changes that constraint, if you will, as well and gives us even more flexibility to do things like that.

正如戴夫所提到的，在本季度，我們的成長率超過了 100%，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們認為 100% 是正確的水平。正如您所說，就資本製度的任何變化而言，我們將從我們認為必要的資本開始。但我們之前也討論過達到或超過一些同儕水準的重要性。因此，如果產業發生變化，那麼這種限制也會改變，這讓我們能夠更有彈性地做這樣的事情。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning.

早安.

I just wanted to follow up, I guess, on the expense front. I think if you go back when you took over as CFO, we had the sort of leadership changes, you talked about the focus in terms of creating a fee over and the focus on vendor contracts, on just moving business heads to manage some of these things. Just give us a sense of any proof points on what you achieved or seen so far? I know it's early days. But as we think about the expense flex and the operating leverage in the business that may come through over the next year or 2 it would help us inform how much we can rely on expenses.

我想我只是想跟進一下費用方面的情況。我想，如果你回顧一下你接任首席財務官的時候，我們經歷了領導層的變動，你談到了重點關注收費和供應商合同，以及調動業務主管來管理其中的一些事情。請向我們提供一些證據，證明您迄今為止的成就或看到的情況？我知道現在還為時過早。但是，當我們考慮未來一兩年內可能出現的費用彈性和業務營運槓桿時，它將幫助我們了解我們可以依賴多少費用。

So I would love to hear things that have been achieved in the last sort of 6, 7 months since these changes occurred. And -- and what's the runway here in terms of what inning are in, in terms of identifying productivity opportunities?

因此，我很想聽聽這些變化發生以來過去 6、7 個月內的成就。並且——就目前情況而言，就確定生產力機會而言，這裡的跑道是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure. And I think that's a good framework to think about it. Dave mentioned a number of things that we have been doing and that you're asking about the time frames in front of us. So on that front, again, we've been very focused on making sure that we have an efficient workforce, and that has produced efficiencies for us in the most recent periods. Of course, we'll continue to do that.

當然。我認為這是一個很好的思考框架。戴夫提到了我們正在做的一些事情，以及您詢問的我們面臨的時間框架。因此，在這方面，我們再次非常注重確保我們擁有一支高效的員工隊伍，這在最近一段時間為我們帶來了效率的提高。當然，我們會繼續這樣做。

There's still more opportunities to look at the way that we're organized, spans of control, location strategy, a number of initiatives across that front that will continue to deliver productivity for us.

我們還有更多的機會審視我們的組織方式、控制範圍、位置策略以及該領域的一系列舉措，這些舉措將繼續為我們帶來生產力。

We're also in the earlier stages of continuing to deploy, I'll say, technology, and I say that in the sense of technology that have been available like machine learning, natural language processing that we're able to deploy to create efficiencies and productivity. And then in the earlier stages of generative AI. So areas where we're using GitHub, for example, for IT or software development automation, which, again, we're getting, I'll say, very good results on that front, but it's in the very early days of deploying that. And also looking to deploy more for digitization of all the documentation that we utilize and have to process for our clients.

我們還處於繼續部署技術的早期階段，我指的是已經存在的技術，例如機器學習、自然語言處理，我們能夠部署這些技術來提高效率和生產力。然後是生成人工智慧的早期階段。因此，我們在 IT 或軟體開發自動化等領域使用 GitHub，我想說，我們在這方面取得了非常好的成果，但這還處於部署的早期階段。我們也希望部署更多資源來對我們為客戶使用和處理的所有文件進行數位化。

And along those lines, if you think about a lot of the activities in the asset servicing business and our operations that relate to workflow management, that's something where we're deploying the technology to continue to automate that much more.

按照這個思路，如果你考慮資產服務業務中的許多活動以及與工作流程管理相關的運營，你會發現我們正在部署技術以繼續實現更多自動化。

And then to your point of even beyond that, we've talked about the fact that we've reorganized, but that's only part of it when we think about the COO organization that's been set up. It's also a change in our operating model where we're moving towards a more capability-driven operating model. That's where we're taking common services or activities or processes that cut across the company and looking to centralize, standardize and automate those processes.

然後，對於您所提到的甚至更遠一點，我們已經談到了我們已經重組的事實，但當我們考慮已經成立的首席營運長組織時，這只是其中的一部分。這也是我們營運模式的改變，我們正在轉向更以能力為導向的營運模式。這就是我們採用整個公司的常見服務、活動或流程並尋求集中化、標準化和自動化的地方。

So thinking about client onboarding, which happens across the company or portfolio accounting and those capabilities, and also our client platforms or portals, our passports, where we have multiple passports to the extent that we can standardize those across the various businesses, geographies that creates those longer-term productivity and efficiency opportunities. So a number of things that we're doing now, but much more that we can do as we go forward to ensure we're getting consistent productivity.

因此，考慮客戶入職，這發生在整個公司或投資組合會計和這些功能中，還有我們的客戶平台或門戶，我們的護照，我們擁有多個護照，以便我們可以在不同業務、不同地區對這些護照進行標準化，從而創造更長期的生產力和效率機會。因此，我們現在正在做很多事情，但在未來我們可以做更多的事情，以確保我們獲得持續的生產力。

That's good color, Mike. And maybe one, Dave heard your guidance on NII. Just remind us in terms of sensitivity to rate cuts, how we should think about that going forward? -- rapid rate cuts. Is that a negative?

顏色真好看，麥克。也許有一位，戴夫聽到了你對 NII 的指導。只是提醒我們，就降息的敏感度而言，我們該如何看待未來？ ——快速降息。這是負面的嗎？

How are you just going about managing the balance sheet from an ALCO perspective?

從 ALCO 的角度來看，您如何管理資產負債表？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. We have -- in our model, we've got 2 or 3 rate cuts potentially in there. From our perspective, it doesn't really impact it all that much, to be honest with you. The NIM compression really doesn't start until we get a much, much lower rates. And if you want to think about it, roughly speaking, a 25 basis point rate cut, it translates into less than $1 million a month for us.

是的。在我們的模型中，我們可能會有 2 到 3 次降息。從我們的角度來看，說實話，它並沒有造成太大的影響。直到我們獲得低得多的利率時，NIM 壓縮才真正開始。如果你仔細想想，粗略地說，降息 25 個基點，對我們來說意味著每月不到 100 萬美元。

So it isn't something that we anticipated, but this is something that's going to prevent us from hitting our goal.

所以這不是我們預料到的事情，但這是會阻止我們實現目標的事情。

Good. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

Hi, thanks and talk about some of the alternative. Good morning. Maybe talk about some of the alternative -- maybe talk about some of the alternative initiatives you have in motion. Let's talk maybe asset and wealth management first. In terms of delivering a more complete set of solutions. I'm curious if you -- what you could tell us on what's in motion in terms of both proprietary and third-party product that you might be onboarding, what signposts we might be looking to see throughout this year? Appreciate it.

嗨，謝謝，並討論一些替代方案。早安.也許可以談論一些替代方案——也許可以談論您正在採取的一些替代舉措。我們先來談談資產和財富管理。在提供更完整的解決方案方面。我很好奇，您能否告訴我們，就您可能正在引入的專有產品和第三方產品而言，目前有哪些進展？今年我們可能會看到哪些跡象？非常感謝。

Sure. Absolutely. So alternative solutions, definitely an important growth initiative for us across the company. To your question as it relates to wealth management, what we're looking to do there, Glenn, is to enhance and expand the opportunity set for our clients. And it is a combination of both proprietary, but also third-party funds.

當然。絕對地。因此，替代解決方案對於我們整個公司來說無疑是一項重要的成長舉措。對於您提出的有關財富管理的問題，格倫，我們希望做的是增強和擴大我們客戶的機會。它既是自營資金，也是第三方資金的結合。

So 50 South Capital is our alternatives investment manager within NTAM. And on that front, we've been very successful with our wealth clients in raising funds over time. A combination of fund to funds, but also other types of, I'll say, direct capabilities such as secondaries and co-investments. And we look to this year, essentially double the fundraising capacity or actual fundraising amount to what we've done in previous years on average.

因此，50 South Capital 是我們 NTAM 內的另類投資經理人。在這方面，我們長期以來一直非常成功地幫助財富客戶籌集資金。基金與基金之間的組合，以及其他類型的組合，例如二級市場投資和共同投資等直接能力。我們預計今年的募款能力或實際募款金額將比前幾年平均翻倍。

And then on the other hand, we have our wealth management alternatives platform, which has third-party funds on that. And that's an area where likewise, we're looking to increase the number of funds this year that we offer to our clients, and also look to potentially increase the size of the average offering on that front. That does require an investment. So that's why when you say what's happening on that front, there's a lot happening to ensure that we do that in a way that gets the right outcomes for our clients, ensuring that we provide the right education around alternatives and how it fits into the portfolio of our clients. And so yes, a big area of focus for us, both on our own, I'll say, and through third parties.

另一方面，我們有財富管理替代平台，上面有第三方基金。同樣，我們也希望今年增加向客戶提供的基金數量，並希望盡可能增加該領域的平均發行規模。這確實需要投資。所以這就是為什麼當你說這方面正在發生的事情時，有很多事情正在發生，以確保我們以一種能夠為客戶帶來正確結果的方式做到這一點，確保我們就替代方案及其如何融入我們客戶的投資組合提供正確的教育。是的，這是我們關注的一個重點領域，無論是我們自己，還是透過第三方。

Great. Maybe I'll continue the team and just ask a follow-up on the servicing side. In your prepared remarks, you talked about the semi-liquid funds important focus and doing like half you said or a little more than half of what's going on in the UK, US is obviously a huge market for semi liquids.

偉大的。也許我會繼續留在團隊中，只是詢問服務方面的後續情況。在您準備好的發言中，您談到了半流動性基金的重要關注點，並且像您所說的那樣，英國、美國正在發生的一半或一半多一點的事情顯然是一個巨大的半流動性市場。

I'm just curious if that technology backbone that you're having success with in the UK is literally the same thing or can be tweaked to go after the US market and if that's a clear plan. Appreciate it.

我只是好奇，您在英國取得成功的技術主幹是否真的是同一件事，或者是否可以進行調整以適應美國市場，以及這是否是一個明確的計劃。非常感謝。

Yes. So yes. So to your point, the markets are different, I'll say, similar but different. So that capability with the LTAF in the UK, for example, there is a similar structure investment vehicle structure in Luxembourg in that market, if you will. And as you know, that then is a market where you can distribute across Europe.

是的。是的。所以就你的觀點而言，市場是不同的，我想說，相似但不同。因此，如果您願意的話，以英國的 LTAF 為例，盧森堡市場上也存在類似的結構投資工具結構。如您所知，這是一個您可以在整個歐洲進行分銷的市場。

Likewise, we've had success on that front, and I would say there's activity there. Similarly, Ireland has its own structure. So yes, you need the expertise, yes, you have the capability. It does require, I'll say, customizing for that marketplace. And so we have the ability to do that.

同樣，我們在這方面也取得了成功，我想說我們在這方面正在進行活動。同樣，愛爾蘭也有自己的結構。所以是的，你需要專業知識，是的，你有能力。我想說的是，它確實需要針對該市場進行客製化。所以我們有能力做到這一點。

And within the US, again, it's a different approach and structure for that market, but one that we've had growth in the US with private capital and expect to going forward as well.

在美國，同樣的，我們也針對該市場採取了不同的方法和結構，但我們在美國借助私人資本實現了增長，並且預計未來也將繼續增長。

Alright, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Morning Dave, morning Mike.

早安，戴夫，早安，麥克。

Can you guys share with us it might be difficult to do this, but how can you calibrate the fee revenues for asset values versus volume. So if the global asset values were to continue to decline this year, how much can that be offset on your revenues with increased volumes?

你們能否與我們分享一下，這可能很難做到，但是如何校準資產價值與交易量之間的費用收入。那麼，如果今年全球資產價值持續下降，那麼透過增加交易量，您的收入能抵銷多少呢？

Yes. I mean, so our AUC is about 50% equities and 30% fixed income, AUM is about 56% equities. So we are levered towards the equity markets, right, from that perspective. So it's going to be volume and it's going to be mix. Obviously, it's going to be super important there as well.

是的。我的意思是，我們的 AUC 大約是 50% 的股票和 30% 的固定收益，AUM 大約是 56% 的股票。所以從這個角度來看，我們是向股票市場傾斜的。所以它將具有體積並且將具有混合。顯然，它在那裡也非常重要。

Also keep in mind that within the AUC bucket, a lot of the stuff that we do in asset servicing is custody-agnostic. We're moving more towards solution-based revenues like front office solutions and integrated trading solutions and things of that nature. So assets under custody are super important, but we've added a ton of extra services around all of that, it's less affected by that volume.

還要記住，在 AUC 桶內，我們在資產服務中所做的很多事情都是與託管無關的。我們正更多地轉向基於解決方案的收入，例如前台解決方案和綜合交易解決方案以及諸如此類的東西。因此，託管資產非常重要，但是我們在所有這些資產周圍增加了大量額外服務，因此受數量的影響較小。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, a broader macro question, there's obviously change coming on the regulatory front. We've seen as recently as Friday MPR come out from the Fed on the stress capital buffer. Can you guys give us your views on the Basel III end game, what changes might -- or what it might mean for Northern Trust, also this talk about excluding government securities from the supplementary leverage ratio. If you wrap it all together, how are you guys looking at it and how it might impact the way you run your business going forward?

非常好。然後作為後續問題，一個更廣泛的宏觀問題是，監管方面顯然正在改變。我們最近在周五看到聯準會公佈了有關壓力資本緩衝的 MPR。你們能否談談對巴塞爾協議 III 最終結果的看法，可能會發生哪些變化——或者這對北方信託意味著什麼，還有關於將政府證券排除在補充槓桿率之外的討論。如果把所有這些綜合起來，你們如何看待它以及它將如何影響你們未來的業務經營方式？

Sure. So the regulatory environment and framework is absolutely continuing to change. I mean, Basel III end game has been out there for some time period, can't quite reach the end game on that front. I would say within that aspect or that regime, it's mostly about operational risk, and how that gets treated from a capital perspective.

當然。因此，監管環境和框架絕對在不斷變化。我的意思是，巴塞爾協議 III 的最終階段已經實施了一段時間，但還未能完全達到最終階段。我想說，在這個方面或製度下，主要涉及的是操作風險，以及如何從資本角度來處理這個風險。

To the extent that it is a more, I'll call it, refined model that relates to your particular operations and the actual risk that you have, that tends to be favorable from our perspective as opposed to more blunt instrument approaches to operational risk, which tend to overweight the level of risk for a lot of the activities that we have. So on that front, I would say, positive in the most recent developments as to how they're looking at operational risk.

在某種程度上，我稱之為更精細的模型，它與您的特定操作和您面臨的實際風險相關，從我們的角度來看，這往往是有利的，而不是更生硬的營運風險工具方法，而這些方法往往會誇大我們許多活動的風險水平。因此，在這方面，我想說，他們在看待營運風險方面的最新進展是正面的。

And to your point on supplemental ratio -- leverage ratio, again, as a custody bank, we tend to be a valve, if you will, or a flex point for liquidity in the marketplace. We have plenty of capacity on that front right now. But certainly, to the extent that something like treasuries receive different treatment as a part of that calculation, it only gives us more capacity. I would say at this point, there's no particular say, need or relief that would be required for us based on our activities, it would just create more capacity.

關於補充比率——槓桿率，再次強調，作為託管銀行，我們傾向於成為市場流動性的閥門或轉折點。目前我們在這方面有足夠的能力。但可以肯定的是，如果國債之類的資產在計算過程中得到不同的處理，那麼這只會為我們帶來更多的容量。我想說的是，目前，根據我們的活動，我們不需要特別的發言權、需求或救濟，它只會創造更多的產能。

Very good, thank you.

非常好，謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

David Smith, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 David Smith。

Good morning. Can you speak some more about how the current market volatility impacts new business on the one hand and client attrition on the other? Are clients less likely to make big moves in terms of custodian or manager during times like this. And just lastly, do these trends look different in asset servicing versus wealth right now?

早安.您能否進一步談談目前的市場波動對新業務和客戶流失有何影響？在這種時期，客戶是否不太可能在託管人或經理方面做出重大舉措？最後，目前資產服務和財富的趨勢是否看起來不同？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, I do think that market volatility, uncertainty can drive client decision-making. And so it's -- we haven't seen anything, I would say, significant at this point. But frankly, we're still in the first month of this really high level of volatility. And so we'll see how that plays out. But yes, it can run counter to decision-making.

是的，我確實認為市場波動和不確定性會影響客戶的決策。所以，我想說，目前我們還沒有看到任何重要的事情。但坦白說，我們仍處於這種高度波動的第一個月。我們將拭目以待事情將如何發展。但確實，它可能與決策背道而馳。

And then I would say, as to how it might differ on the institutional side, these tend to be longer longer time periods for decision-making, where they tend to be running RFPs over many months.

然後我想說，至於機構方面的差異，這些決策週期往往更長，他們往往會在幾個月內運行 RFP。

And so those tend to continue along because they're, I'll say, more accustomed to changes in the marketplace. On the wealth front, it can cause a pause for people to actually switch over. But frankly, it just builds up the pipelines to the extent that we've made the case to be able to switch the account. But as to the timing as to when they want to do it, it just may take a little bit longer to do on that front. So early days on that front, but there certainly can be an impact from volatility.

因此，這些趨勢往往會持續下去，因為他們更習慣於市場的變化。在財富方面，它可能會導致人們暫停實際轉變。但坦白說，它只是在一定程度上建立了管道，以便我們可以切換帳戶。但至於他們想要在何時實施，這可能需要更長的時間。雖然這方面還處於早期階段，但波動肯定會產生影響。

And then as a follow-up, you've seen some nice acceleration in expenses over the past few quarters, but it also does seem like your organic flows backing out market impacts or lagging peers at the same time. What gives you the confidence that you're making all the necessary investments in growth at the same time that you're working to bring expenses down?

然後作為後續行動，您看到過去幾季的支出出現了良好的加速，但同時您的自然流量似乎也抵消了市場影響或落後於同業。是什麼讓您有信心在努力降低開支的同時，為成長做出所有必要的投資？

Yes. The way you described it is certainly the objective, and that's why the productivity pillar of our strategy is critical because it creates that capacity to be able to invest in the growth initiatives that we talked about. So certainly, on the alternative front, on the family office, services front to be able to do it. But then there are a number of other growth initiatives that we're looking and are funding to ensure that we can move that organic growth rate up. Most of them within wealth management and asset management.

是的。您所描述的方式當然是目標，這就是為什麼我們策略的生產力支柱至關重要，因為它創造了能夠投資於我們所談論的成長計劃的能力。因此，當然，在替代方面、在家族辦公室、服務方面，我們能夠做到這一點。但我們正在研究並提供資金支持其他一些成長計劃，以確保我們能夠提高有機成長率。其中大部分屬於財富管理和資產管理領域。

And so we've talked about some of them, but I also mentioned in some of my opening comments in asset management around ETFs, where we'll be launching a number of new funds later this year on that front. We talked a little bit about tax managed equity, another area that we're investing not as much in the capability from an investment perspective, we're very strong. But from a technology perspective, to be able to do that in an even more scalable way. So yes, continuing to invest to be able to fund organic growth.

我們已經討論了其中的一些，但我在關於 ETF 的資產管理的一些開場評論中也提到，我們將在今年稍後推出一些新的基金。我們談論了一些稅收管理股權，這是我們投資的另一個領域，從投資角度來看，我們的能力非常強大。但從技術角度來看，能夠以更具可擴展性的方式做到這一點。所以是的，繼續投資是為了資助有機成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，Seaport Global Securities。

Hey, good morning. Maybe just a couple of follow-ups on wealth. In the family office solutions business, Obviously, some ultra high net worth clients are moving from the more traditional relationship to a family office. Is that more of an effort to make that relationship stickier? Or is there also a material revenue pickup as they convert?

嘿，早安。也許只是一些關於財富的後續問題。在家族辦公室解決方案業務中，顯然，一些超高淨值客戶正在從更傳統的關係轉向家族辦公室。這是否是為了讓這段關係更加牢固？或者當他們轉換時是否也會出現實質的收入成長？

Yes. I would say it's a combination of things. One is to just enhance the service level, if you will. This idea of being able to outsource more gives them a higher level of service. Second, I would say is -- it's our ability to win more business.

是的。我想說這是多種因素的綜合作用。如果你願意的話，一是提高服務水準。這種能夠外包更多業務的想法為他們提供了更高水準的服務。第二，我想說的是──這是我們贏得更多業務的能力。

We see a greater demand for that setup where they have an outsourced family office provider, if you will, where they have that quarter back. So it enables us to grow.

我們看到，對於這種設置的需求更大，如果你願意的話，他們可以有一個外包的家族辦公室提供商，讓他們把這個季度的開支收回來。因此它使我們能夠成長。

And then third, I would say is around the scalability of what we're doing. Overall, this segment, I would say, is not a terribly scalable offering. It's very high need. It's very expert driven, in many cases, very bespoke for the clients and what their needs are. And so anything we can do to improve the scalability, enables us to grow faster and more profitably.

第三，我想說的是我們所做的事情的可擴展性。整體而言，我認為這個細分市場並不是一個非常具有可擴展性的產品。需求量非常大。它由專家驅動，在許多情況下，都是根據客戶及其需求量身定制的。因此，我們可以採取任何措施來提高可擴展性，從而讓我們能夠更快、更有利可圖地發展。

And then to your point as well, we think we do a great job. We'll continually earn that business, and the business will be sticky for us as well.

然後就您的觀點而言，我們認為我們做得很好。我們將持續贏得這項業務，而且這項業務對我們來說也將是持久的。

Right. That makes sense. And then maybe just bigger picture, that's obviously been a place while generally, you've pivoted to try to drive organic growth improvements. You've highlighted a few examples of success across alts et cetera. So how do you -- how are you feeling better or worse on sort of the organic growth acceleration that you're trying to get?

正確的。這很有道理。然後也許只是更大範圍的情況，這顯然是一個總體情況，而您已經轉向嘗試推動有機成長改善。您已經強調了替代產品等方面的一些成功案例。那麼，您對於所試圖實現的有機成長加速感覺如何？感覺好些了還是壞些了？

And if you have any intermediate targets on where you can get that organic growth to in wealth.

如果您有任何中期目標，那麼您可以實現財富的有機成長。

Yes. So I feel very good about the initiatives that we have in place and our progress on them. But I would say on some of these, they are in the earlier days or earlier stages on that front, and the nature of this business is you earn them one by one in many respects. So it's different than our institutional business where you have very, very large mandates that can drive a higher growth rate in a shorter period of time.

是的。因此，我對我們現有的舉措及其所取得的進展感到非常滿意。但我想說的是，其中一些還處於早期階段，而這項業務的性質是你在許多方面逐一贏得它們。因此，這與我們的機構業務不同，在機構業務中，您擁有非常非常大的授權，可以在更短的時間內推動更高的成長率。

And then I'd also say one of the keys is really being able to execute on our One Northern Trust strategy. And what I mean by that is just delivering the entire firm. So it's not, I'll say, just wealth management. It's the entire firm, it's asset management and when appropriate, also the asset servicing and banking capabilities that our wealth clients need.

然後我還要說，關鍵之一是能夠真正執行我們的「一個北方信託」策略。我這樣說的意思是交付整個公司。所以我想說，這不僅僅是財富管理。它是整個公司，是資產管理，而且在適當的時候，也是我們的財富客戶所需要的資產服務和銀行業務能力。

Okay, thanks for the call.

好的，謝謝您的來電。

Vivek Juneja from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Hi, thanks.

你好，謝謝。

Just want a clarification on your fees in both servicing and asset management. Dave, I heard you say you've added a lot of services. And then you also mentioned in your release about the lagged effect that you always have from asset values. Obviously, fourth quarter asset values did well. But when I look at your servicing and asset management fees, both were down linked quarter.

只是想澄清一下你們的服務和資產管理費用。戴夫，我聽到你說你增加了很多服務。然後，您也在新聞稿中提到了資產價值始終存在的滯後效應。顯然，第四季資產價值表現良好。但當我查看你們的服務費和資產管理費時，發現兩者都比去年同期下降。

Any color on what drove that down? And how we should think about it given that Q1 was actually down further. So any thoughts on this?

有什麼具體原因導致這結果嗎？考慮到第一季實際上進一步下滑，我們應該如何看待這個問題。對此您有什麼看法嗎？

So the way to think about the billing lags is sort of 25% quarterly, 60% monthly and 15% daily is sort of the way we think about it. So obviously, the quarterly benefit, we'll still see it going into Q2 because March 31 wasn't -- was before Liberation Day. So we're still going to see an impact there. But going forward, it obviously will catch up to us unless the markets will come back materially.

因此，我們考慮計費滯後的方式是每季 25%、每月 60% 和每天 15%。因此，顯然，我們仍會看到季度收益進入第二季度，因為 3 月 31 日不是——是在解放日之前。所以我們仍然會看到其影響。但展望未來，除非市場大幅回升，否則我們顯然會陷入困境。

Okay. And then completely different topic. Maybe, Mike, your fee revenues, both servicing and asset management, what percentage is non-US? And as you think about growth, I know Jason in the past, has talked on this call has talked about wanting to add a lot of growth internationally to what are you thinking as you've done your plans in terms of how much of the growth you expect coming from international in next year, next 3 years? Anything on that?

好的。然後是完全不同的話題。麥克，也許，你的費用收入（包括服務和資產管理）中有多少百分比是來自非美國的？當您考慮成長時，我知道 Jason 過去曾在這次電話會議上談到希望在國際上增加大量成長，那麼您在製定計劃時，您認為明年或未來 3 年預計有多少成長來自國際市場？有這方面的資訊嗎？

Sure. So roughly 25% to 30% of our revenue is non-US. And that will vary over time quarter-to-quarter, but that gives you some idea of the distribution there. And I would say, from a growth perspective, that each of our businesses has a non-US or international growth component to it.

當然。因此，我們的收入大約有 25% 到 30% 來自美國以外。並且每個季度都會有所不同，但這可以讓您了解那裡的分佈。我想說，從成長的角度來看，我們的每項業務都包含非美國或國際成長成分。

Again, the markets can change and the dynamics can change, but there are certain areas where we think there is more of a growth opportunity internationally with the businesses. So for example, within the family office business, it will continue to grow in the US, but we've been growing at a higher rate outside of the US as well, some meaningful wins even in the quarter here where we think that, that opportunity and our capability set continues to offer a higher growth opportunity.

再說一次，市場會變化，動態會變化，但我們認為在某些領域，企業在國際上有更多的成長機會。舉例來說，在家族辦公室業務中，它將繼續在美國成長，但我們在美國以外的成長速度也更高，甚至在本季度也取得了一些有意義的勝利，我們認為，這種機會和我們的能力將繼續提供更高的成長機會。

And then in Asset Servicing, as much as we've had good success, for example, in the quarter here with our US asset owner client base, we continue to win in EMEA and APAC as well. So I don't see that mix, I would say, meaningfully changing as we go forward here and continues to have that type of balance.

在資產服務方面，我們取得了良好的成功，例如，本季度我們在美國資產所有者客戶群中也取得了成功，我們也繼續在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區取得成功。因此，我認為，隨著我們繼續前進，這種混合不會發生重大變化，並且會繼續保持這種平衡。

And just a clarification, the 25% to 30%, Mike, were you referring to fee revenues, I'm presuming?

需要澄清的是，麥克，您所說的 25% 到 30% 是指費用收入嗎？

That's total revenue.

這就是總收入。

And what would it be for fee revenues?

那麼費用收入是多少呢？

I don't know and we'll have to follow up with that, Vivek.

我不知道，我們必須跟進此事，維韋克。

Yes. dollars still represented about 80% of our trust fees.

是的。美元仍然占我們信託費用的 80% 左右。

Okay. Yes, thanks.

好的。是的，謝謝。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Hey everybody, thanks for squeezing me in here. Just a couple of follow-ups for me. First, maybe on NII, understanding that the environment is obviously quite volatile. I think in your forward guidance, you guys are assuming fairly stable deposits. I'm assuming that's to average in Q1, but maybe give us an update on kind of how things stand far in April, both in terms of the level and the mix just given all the volatility we've seen so far in the second quarter?

嘿大家，感謝你們把我擠到這裡。對我來說，這只是一些後續問題。首先，也許就 NII 而言，我們了解到環境顯然非常不穩定。我認為在你們的前瞻性指引中，你們假設存款相當穩定。我假設這是第一季的平均水平，但能否向我們介紹四月份的情況，包括水平和組合情況，考慮到我們在第二季度迄今為止看到的所有波動？

Yes. I mean, deposit levels are hanging in there. And obviously, March 31 was a point in time. But at the end of the day, our clients, I think, are -- have taken a somewhat of a risk-off position in the marketplace. And I think they view Northern as a good place to put their deposits.

是的。我的意思是，存款水準仍然保持穩定。顯然，3 月 31 日是一個時間點。但最終，我認為我們的客戶在市場上採取了某種規避風險的立場。我認為他們認為北方銀行是存放存款的好地方。

And so from our perspective, the deposit levels are driving a little bit, obviously, of the guide I've given you going forward, and we don't see them abating obviously, for the next couple of months. And so from that perspective, we feel pretty good about that.

因此，從我們的角度來看，存款水準顯然會在一定程度上推動我為您提供的未來指導，我們認為在接下來的幾個月中，存款水準不會明顯減弱。因此從這個角度來看，我們對此感覺非常好。

Right. So okay, that makes sense. And then in terms of just the mix as well, could you just kind of help us think about what should we be looking out for when thinking about the mix going forward? The risk-off environment doesn't seem to change the mix rather drastically. It sounds like noninterest deposits is still kind of hanging around the same level in terms of percentages. But what would change that? And what sort of the client segment that will be most responsible, I guess, for that shift?

正確的。好吧，這很有道理。然後就混合而言，您能否幫助我們思考一下，在考慮未來的混合時我們應該注意什麼？避險環境似乎並未大幅改變這種格局。聽起來，非利息存款的百分比似乎仍然徘徊在同一水平。但什麼能改變這種狀況呢？我猜想，哪一種客戶群對這種轉變負有最大責任？

Yes. So keep in mind that 50% of our securities reprice in 90 days or less, and over 80% of the book is in US dollars. And then we've got about $1 billion of fixed securities that run off each quarter and then are being reinvested in fixed and floating. And we have -- our duration has gone up a little teeny bit.

是的。因此請記住，我們 50% 的證券在 90 天或更短的時間內重新定價，並且超過 80% 的帳簿是以美元計價的。然後，我們每季都會發行約 10 億美元的固定證券，然後再投資於固定和浮動。而且我們的持續時間已經稍微增加了一點。

We have been taking the opportunity to think a little bit about protecting '26, if you will, so -- from that perspective. So -- and also keep in mind that about 70% of our deposits are in US dollars, right? So there are opportunities for us to do some arbitrage opportunities between those currencies and things of that nature. And as I said before, deposit betas are going to remain pretty steady until we get to much lower interest rate levels.

如果你願意的話，我們一直在藉此機會思考如何保護 26 號公路，從這個角度來看。所以——也要記住，我們大約 70% 的存款都是美元，對嗎？因此，我們有機會在這些貨幣和類似的東西之間進行一些套利機會。正如我之前所說，在利率水準大幅降低之前，存款貝塔係數將保持相當穩定。

So that's sort of what's driving the NII outlook.

這就是推動 NII 前景的因素。

Got you. Okay. And then just another quick one on expenses. So I heard you guys in terms of your prepared remarks and the outlook for this year, just given the more uncertain macro backdrop and the effect will be delayed on fees that lower markets might have when you guys. Could you just remind us the percentage of your expense base that flexes directly with lower asset levels.

明白了。好的。然後再簡單談談費用問題。因此，我聽到了你們準備好的發言和對今年的展望，只是考慮到更加不確定的宏觀背景以及較低的市場對費用的影響將會延遲。您能否提醒我們一下，您的支出基礎中有多少百分比會隨著資產水準的降低而直接改變？

There are some things like sub-advisory or sub-custody fees and things like that, that I think are quite floating. But if you look at your expense base more holistically, what percentage of that is sort of truly variable with the fee revenue?

我認為，諸如次級諮詢費或次級託管費之類的費用是相當浮動的。但是，如果你更全面地看待你的支出基礎，其中有多少百分比是真正隨費用收入而改變的？

Not as much as you might think. Roughly, it's less than 0.5%, right? So the general -- the sum we give you guys is the 10% change in the market, it's about a 3% change in trust fees, 2% revenues. Unfortunately, on the way down, we don't get as much benefit from those kind of fees going down.

並沒有你想像的那麼多。大概是0.5%以下吧？所以總體來說——我們給你們的總數是市場 10% 的變化，信託費用大約有 3% 的變化，收入有 2% 的變化。不幸的是，在費用下降的過程中，我們並沒有從這些費用的下降中獲得太多好處。

Okay. Great. All right, thanks so much.

好的。偉大的。好的，非常感謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi guys, just a quick follow up.

大家好，我只是想快速跟進。

Just a quick follow-up. Dave, what -- you guys obviously took a nice gain from your Visa position last year. Could you just update us where it stands now on the balance sheet, what the value is and what you're thinking of doing with the remaining shares that you may own?

只是一個快速的跟進。戴夫，你們去年顯然從 Visa 職位上獲得了不錯的收益。您能否向我們更新一下資產負債表上目前的狀況、價值是多少以及您打算如何處理您可能擁有的剩餘股份？

So on the balance sheet, Gerard, it's at 0. So it has not been marked up, if you will. And at this point, I would consider it restricted. Visa does create the opportunity to liquidate an additional portion of that. I think we'll consider it at that point and with the same decision-making framework that we did before when we decided to take advantage of that and liquidate half of our position at that time. And at this point, don't really have any more visibility into it.

因此，傑拉德，在資產負債表上，它是 0。所以如果你願意的話，它還沒有被標記。從這一點來看，我認為它是受限制的。Visa 確實創造了清算額外部分的機會。我認為我們會在那時考慮這一點，並採用我們之前所做的相同決策框架，當時我們決定利用這一點並清算一半的頭寸。而目前，我們對此還沒有任何進一步的了解。

Got it. And just -- and maybe a reword the question what's the unrealized gain potential, I guess, was the better question since it's carried at 0 on the balance sheet.

知道了。而且 — — 也許重新問一下「未實現收益潛力是多少」這個問題，我想，這是一個更好的問題，因為它在資產負債表上為 0。

About $1.1 billion pretax.

稅前約 11 億美元。

Great. Okay, super, appreciate that, thank you.

偉大的。好的，非常好，非常感謝。

And there are no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Jennifer Childe for closing remarks.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。現在我將會議交還給詹妮弗·柴爾德 (Jennifer Childe) 並請她致閉幕詞。

Thanks, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again in the future.

謝謝，接線生。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待將來再次與您交談。

Thanks, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again in the future.

謝謝，接線生。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待將來再次與您交談。