Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Northern Trust Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Childe, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加北方信託公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Jennifer Childe。請繼續。

Thank you, Ruth and good morning, everyone. And welcome to Northern Trust Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on our call this morning is Mike O'Grady, our Chairman and CEO; Jason Tyler, our Chief Financial Officer; John Landers, our Controller; and Grace Higgins from our Investor Relations team.

謝謝你，露絲，大家早安。歡迎參加北方信託公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Mike O'Grady。 Jason Tyler，我們的財務長；約翰·蘭德斯，我們的財務總監；以及我們投資者關係團隊的格蕾絲·希金斯 (Grace Higgins)。

Our fourth quarter earnings press release and financial trends report are both available on our website at northerntrust.com. Also on our website, you will find our quarterly earnings review presentation, which we will use to guide today's conference call. This January 18 call is being webcast live on northerntrust.com. The only authorized rebroadcast of this call is the replay that will be made available on our website through February 18.

我們的第四季收益新聞稿和財務趨勢報告均可在我們的網站 Northerntrust.com 上取得。此外，在我們的網站上，您還可以找到我們的季度收益回顧演示文稿，我們將使用它來指導今天的電話會議。 1 月 18 日的電話會議將在 Northerntrust.com 上進行網路直播。本次電話會議的唯一授權重播是 2 月 18 日之前在我們的網站上提供的重播。

Northern Trust disclaims any continuing accuracy of the information provided in this call after today. Please refer to our safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements on Page 13 of the accompanying presentation, which will apply to our commentary on this call. During today's question-and-answer session, please limit your initial query to 1 question and 1 related follow-up. This will allow us to move through the queue and enable as many people as possible the opportunity to ask questions as time permits.

北方信託否認今天之後本次電話會議中提供的資訊的任何持續準確性。請參閱隨附簡報第 13 頁上有關前瞻性陳述的安全港聲明，該聲明將適用於我們對本次電話會議的評論。在今天的問答環節中，請將您的初步詢問限制為 1 個問題和 1 個相關的後續問題。這將使我們能夠在隊列中移動，並讓盡可能多的人有機會在時間允許的情況下提問。

Thank you again for joining us today. Let me turn the call over to Mike O'Grady.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。讓我把電話轉給麥克·奧格雷迪。

Thank you, Jennifer. Let me join in welcoming you to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Similar to the last few years, 2023 presented a challenging operating environment. We experienced a combination of geopolitical instability, highly visible bank failures and elevated inflation and interest rates. I would like to thank our teams across the company for their tireless efforts to serve our clients under these difficult circumstances.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。讓我歡迎您參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。與過去幾年類似，2023 年的營運環境充滿挑戰。我們經歷了地緣政治不穩定、明顯的銀行倒閉以及通貨膨脹和利率上升的綜合影響。我要感謝我們整個公司的團隊在這種困難的情況下為服務我們的客戶所做的不懈努力。

Turning to our numbers. Our fourth quarter results capped off a solid year of progress towards driving improved long-term financial performance. On a year-over-year basis, reported fourth quarter revenue was $1.6 billion. Expenses were $1.4 billion and earnings per share were $0.52. Our performance in the quarter included the impact of $261 million in notable items. Adjusting for the notable items in both periods, fourth quarter revenue on a year-over-year basis was flat with trust fees up 5% and expenses up 3%.

轉向我們的數字。我們第四季的業績為推動改善長期財務表現取得了堅實的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。與去年同期相比，第四季營收為 16 億美元。費用為 14 億美元，每股收益為 0.52 美元。我們本季的業績包括 2.61 億美元的顯著專案影響。在兩個時期的重要項目進行調整後，第四季營收較去年同期持平，信託費用成長 5%，支出成長 3%。

We focused much of our efforts in 2023 on expense control, making various structural and governance changes to enable sustained long-term productivity improvements. Actions included disciplined head count management, vendor consolidation, rationalization of our real estate footprint and process automation. Although we brought our year-over-year expense growth down in each quarter this year, our expense growth in 2023 was still too high relative to our trust fee and revenue growth levels in recent years. As such, lowering the trajectory of our expense growth further remains a top priority this year as well.

2023 年，我們大部分的工作重點是費用控制，進行各種結構和治理變革，以實現持續、長期的生產力提高。行動包括嚴格的人員管理、供應商整合、房地產足跡合理化和流程自動化。儘管我們今年每個季度的費用同比增長有所下降，但相對於近年來的信託費用和收入增長水平，我們 2023 年的費用增長仍然過高。因此，進一步降低費用成長軌跡仍是今年的首要任務。

Turning to the businesses. Our organic growth continued to be below historical levels, although we saw improvement throughout the year. Within Wealth Management, for the fourth quarter and the year, solid growth in client advisory fees was largely offset by product level asset outflows. We continue to see ongoing strength in the higher wealth tiers above $50 million in client assets, where our expertise, track record and industry leadership are significant differentiators.

轉向企業。儘管我們全年都看到了改善，但我們的有機成長仍然低於歷史水平。在財富管理領域，第四季和今年，客戶諮詢費用的穩健成長在很大程度上被產品級資產流出所抵消。我們繼續看到客戶資產超過 5000 萬美元的較高財富層的持續實力，我們的專業知識、業績記錄和行業領導力是顯著的差異化因素。

Our ability to harness the data and analytics from serving the wealthiest people in the world for more than 130 years, coupled with our holistic advice driven culture sets us apart in the marketplace and will continue to be an important driver of our success.

130多年來，我們利用為世界上最富有的人提供服務的數據和分析能力，加上我們以整體建議為導向的文化，使我們在市場中脫穎而出，並將繼續成為我們成功的重要推動力。

Drawing from our experience working with some of the most sophisticated families around the globe, next month, the Northern Trust Institute will publish its first book, Secrets of Enterprising Families. The book will provide a window into what works for ultra-high net worth families who have succeeded generation after generation and what doesn't, to help other families gain important insights and unlock value. The book will be launched with a series of client and prospect events around the country, giving us a new channel to establish relationships and develop business.

根據我們與全球一些最有經驗的家庭合作的經驗，北方信託研究所將於下個月出版其第一本書《進取家庭的秘密》。這本書將提供一個窗口，了解什麼對一代又一代成功的超高淨值家庭有效，什麼無效，以幫助其他家庭獲得重要的見解並釋放價值。這本書將與全國各地的一系列客戶和潛在客戶活動一起推出，為我們提供建立關係和發展業務的新管道。

Finally, as a testament to our exceptional client service and expertise, in 2023, we were named Best Private Bank for Family Offices in the U.S. and Best Private Bank for Succession Planning in the U.S. by the Financial Times Group.

最後，為了證明我們卓越的客戶服務和專業知識，我們在 2023 年被英國《金融時報》集團評為「美國最佳家族辦公室私人銀行」和「美國最佳繼任計畫私人銀行」。

Asset servicing generated solid new business growth in both the fourth quarter and full year but this was largely offset by continuing asset outflows at the client level and generally lower transaction volumes and capital markets activities. We performed particularly well with asset owners in the Americas in the fourth quarter. Notable wins included the state of Nebraska Investment Council pension plan and Costco's retirement plan. We were also reappointed as asset servicing provider for the Healthcare of Ontario pension plan.

資產服務在第四季度和全年都帶來了穩健的新業務成長，但這在很大程度上被客戶層面持續的資產外流以及交易量和資本市場活動普遍下降所抵消。第四季我們與美洲資產所有者的表現尤其出色。值得注意的勝利包括內布拉斯加州投資委員會退休金計劃和好市多的退休計劃。我們也被重新任命為安大略省醫療保健退休金計劃的資產服務提供者。

Throughout the year, we also generated healthy momentum with asset managers in the U.K. and EMEA regions, where our solutions for alternatives and private credit were particularly well received. We recently finalized terms with one of the world's largest private market firms, which will add significant scale to our alternatives division. This appointment is a testament to our ability to successfully compete for some of the largest and most complex mandates.

在這一年中，我們也與英國和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的資產管理公司建立了健康的發展勢頭，我們的另類投資和私人信貸解決方案在這些地區尤其受到好評。我們最近與世界上最大的私募市場公司之一敲定了條款，這將顯著擴大我們的另類投資部門的規模。這項任命證明了我們有能力成功競爭一些規模最大、最複雜的任務。

Our Asset Servicing business received numerous awards in 2023 for its innovation and industry leadership, including best outsourcing provider by Waters, European Transfer Agent of the Year and Administrator of the Year by Funds Europe, Best Global Custodian for asset owners by AsianInvestor.

我們的資產服務業務因其創新和行業領先地位而在2023 年獲得了許多獎項，包括沃特世(Waters) 頒發的最佳外包提供商、歐洲基金(Funds Europe) 頒發的年度歐洲過戶代理和年度管理人、亞洲投資者(AsianInvestor) 頒發的最佳資產所有者全球託管機構。

In Asset Management, following several quarters of client outflows, we generated positive overall inflows in the fourth quarter, including healthy growth in index equity and our fourth consecutive quarter of positive liquidity inflows. We've seen particularly good momentum in our high-yield complex, with 93% of our taxable active funds outperforming their 1-year benchmarks.

在資產管理領域，繼幾季的客戶流出之後，我們在第四季度實現了整體正流入，包括指數權益的健康成長以及連續第四個季度的正流動性流入。我們的高收益綜合體表現出特別良好的勢頭，我們 93% 的應稅主動型基金的表現優於其 1 年期基準。

Our alternatives funds have also continued to generate solid growth and remain an important driver of our fee revenue. As a result, our product launches during the year focused largely on alternatives capabilities.

我們的另類基金也持續實現穩健成長，並且仍然是我們費用收入的重要驅動力。因此，我們今年推出的產品主要集中在替代功能。

In closing, we enter 2024 with positive momentum, well positioned to navigate the ongoing macroeconomic and market uncertainty. Our focus is squarely on accelerating profitable organic growth, maintaining our expense discipline and driving greater resiliency and efficiency in our operating model.

最後，我們以積極的勢頭進入 2024 年，並做好了應對持續的宏觀經濟和市場不確定性的準備。我們的重點是加速獲利有機成長、維持我們的費用紀律並提高我們營運模式的彈性和效率。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jason to review our financial performance. Jason?

這樣，我會將其交給 Jason 來審查我們的財務表現。傑森？

Thank you, Mike. Let me join Jennifer and Mike in welcoming you to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Let's dive into the financial results of the quarter, starting on Page 4. This morning, we reported GAAP fourth quarter net income of $113 million. Earnings per share of $0.52 and our return on average common equity was 4%. As noted on the slide, our reported results included $176 million loss on the sale of securities related to a repositioning of the portfolio that we completed in November. They also included an $85 million FDIC special assessment. Our assets under custody and administration and assets under management were up sharply on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.

謝謝你，麥克。讓我與 Jennifer 和 Mike 一起歡迎您參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。讓我們從第 4 頁開始深入了解本季度的財務業績。今天早上，我們報告了 GAAP 第四季度淨利潤為 1.13 億美元。每股收益為 0.52 美元，平均普通股回報率為 4%。正如幻燈片中所指出的，我們報告的業績包括與我們 11 月完成的投資組合重新定位相關的證券出售損失 1.76 億美元。其中還包括 8,500 萬美元的 FDIC 特別評估。託管管理資產和管理資產規模環比和年比均大幅成長。

Strong equity and fixed income markets, coupled with favorable currency movements, drove most of the improvement in both periods, offset slightly by asset outflows in both periods.

強勁的股票和固定收益市場，加上有利的貨幣走勢，推動了這兩個時期的大部分改善，但被兩個時期的資產流出略有抵消。

Given the intra-period market movements and lag effects of our fee arrangements, markets had an unfavorable impact on sequential trust fee growth and a favorable impact on year-over-year trust fee growth. On a year-over-year basis, currency movements had an approximate 90-basis point favorable impact on revenue growth, largely within our Asset Servicing segment and 110-basis point unfavorable impact on expenses. On a sequential basis, currency impacts were immaterial.

考慮到期內市場波動和我們的費用安排的滯後效應，市場對信託費用連續成長產生了不利影響，但對信託費用年增率產生了有利影響。與去年同期相比，匯率變動對收入成長產生了約 90 個基點的有利影響，主要是在我們的資產服務部門，而對支出產生了 110 個基點的不利影響。從環比來看，貨幣影響並不重大。

Excluding notable items in all periods, revenue was flat on both a sequential quarter and year-over-year basis. Expenses were well controlled, up 1.9% sequentially and up 2.6% over the prior year. Trust, investment and other servicing fees totaled $1.1 billion, 2% sequential decrease and a 5% increase compared to last year. All other noninterest income on an FTE basis was down 6% sequentially and down 5% over the prior year.

排除所有時期的顯著項目，收入環比和年比均持平。費用控制良好，季增1.9%，年增2.6%。信託、投資和其他服務費用總額為 11 億美元，季減 2%，年增 5%。以 FTE 計算的所有其他非利息收入環比下降 6%，比上年下降 5%。

Net interest income on an FTE basis was $501 million, up 7% sequentially and down 9% from a year ago. Our provision for credit losses was $11 million in the fourth quarter. Overall, our credit quality remains very strong. Net charge-offs during the quarter were $2 million. Nonperforming loan levels decreased to $64 million from $69 million in the prior period and nonperforming loans as a percentage of total loans remained stable.

以 FTE 計算的淨利息收入為 5.01 億美元，比上一季成長 7%，比去年同期下降 9%。第四季我們的信貸損失撥備為 1,100 萬美元。總體而言，我們的信用品質仍然非常強勁。本季淨沖銷額為 200 萬美元。不良貸款水準從上期的 6,900 萬美元下降至 6,400 萬美元，不良貸款佔貸款總額的比例保持穩定。

Turning to our Asset Servicing results on Page 5. Assets under custody and administration for asset servicing clients were $14 trillion at quarter end. Asset servicing fees totaled $612 million. Custody and fund administration fees were $420 million. Assets under management for asset servicing clients were $1 trillion. And asset management fees within Asset Servicing were $131 million.

轉向第 5 頁的資產服務結果。截至季末，資產服務客戶託管和管理的資產為 14 兆美元。資產服務費總計 6.12 億美元。託管費和基金管理費為 4.2 億美元。資產服務客戶管理的資產為 1 兆美元。資產服務部門的資產管理費用為 1.31 億美元。

Moving to our Wealth Management business on Page 6. Assets under management for our wealth management clients were $423 billion. Assets and trust investment and other servicing fees for wealth management clients were $478 million.

前往第 6 頁的財富管理業務。我們的財富管理客戶管理的資產為 4,230 億美元。財富管理客戶的資產和信託投資及其他服務費用為4.78億美元。

Moving to Page 7 and our balance sheet and net interest income trends. Our average balance sheet decreased 3% on a linked quarter basis, primarily due to lower borrowing activity. It declined 8% compared to the prior year due to lower client deposits. Average deposits were $102 billion, essentially flat with the prior quarter and meaningfully better than our expectations. We experienced a stronger-than-anticipated increase in deposits late in the quarter, ending the year at $116 billion.

轉到第 7 頁，我們的資產負債表和淨利息收入趨勢。我們的平均資產負債表季減 3%，主要是因為借款活動減少。由於客戶存款減少，與前一年相比下降了 8%。平均存款為 1,020 億美元，與上一季基本持平，明顯優於我們的預期。本季末我們的存款成長強於預期，年末達到 1,160 億美元。

At quarter end, operational deposits comprised approximately 2/3 of institutional deposits and institutional deposits comprised 75% to 80% of the total mix. Despite significant leverage capacity, we reduced our average borrowings by $4 billion relative to the third quarter or nearly 4%, reducing both our FHLB advances and Fed funds purchased.

截至季末，經營性存款約佔機構存款的 2/3，機構存款佔總存款的 75% 至 80%。儘管槓桿能力很強，但我們的平均借款較第三季減少了 40 億美元，近 4%，從而減少了我們的 FHLB 預付款和購買的聯邦基金。

Shifting to the asset side of the balance sheet. $3.2 billion securities repositioning we completed in November, involve the sale of both high-quality liquid assets and non high-quality liquid assets available for sale securities with a weighted average maturity of 2 to 3 years. Earlier this week, we completed another $2.1 billion repositioning, which enhances our flexibility given the dynamic rate environment. We record an associated loss in the first quarter of approximately $200 million. The proceeds of both sales were invested in short floating rate securities, further reducing the duration of the portfolio, which is now 1.8 years.

轉向資產負債表的資產方。我們於 11 月完成了 32 億美元的證券重新定位，涉及出售優質流動資產和非優質流動資產可供出售證券，加權平均期限為 2 至 3 年。本週早些時候，我們又完成了 21 億美元的重新定位，這增強了我們在動態利率環境下的靈活性。我們第一季的相關損失約為 2 億美元。兩次銷售的收益均投資於空頭浮動利率證券，進一步縮短了投資組合的久期，目前為 1.8 年。

Average loan balances were $42 billion, flat both sequentially and relative to the prior year. Our end-of-period loan balances were up $4 billion or 9% over the third quarter, reflecting an increase in overdrafts related to higher levels of year-end trading and settlement activity. Our loans have since returned to $42 billion. The heightened activity at the end of the quarter did not have a material impact on net interest income in either the fourth quarter or first quarter. As a reminder, approximately 75% of the loan portfolio is floating. The total balance sheet duration continues to be less than 1 year.

平均貸款餘額為 420 億美元，環比和上年持平。我們的期末貸款餘額比第三季增加了 40 億美元，即 9%，反映出與年末交易和結算活動水準較高相關的透支增加。此後，我們的貸款已恢復至 420 億美元。季度末的活動增加並未對第四季或第一季的淨利息收入產生重大影響。提醒一下，大約 75% 的貸款組合是浮動的。資產負債表總久期仍少於一年。

Our average liquidity levels remained strong. Cash held at the Federal Reserve and other central banks was down, reflecting the decrease in borrowings. But high-quality liquid assets comprise more than 50% of our deposits and more than 40% of total earning assets on average. Our net interest income in 2024 will continue to be driven largely by client deposit behavior, which has been less predictable given the unique aspects of this rate cycle. We expect the November and January securities repositioning to provide an incremental $30 million in net interest income per quarter in 2024, relative to fourth quarter levels.

我們的平均流動性水平仍然強勁。聯準會和其他央行持有的現金下降，反映了借款的減少。但優質流動資產平均占我們存款的50%以上，佔總獲利資產的40%以上。 2024 年我們的淨利息收入將繼續主要由客戶存款行為驅動，考慮到本次利率週期的獨特性，客戶存款行為較可預測。我們預計 11 月和 1 月的證券重新定位將使 2024 年每季淨利息收入較第四季水準增加 3,000 萬美元。

We currently expect first quarter net interest income to be in the range of $480 million to $500 million. This assumes deposits remain stable but deposit pricing continues to be under some pressure with further NIM compression possible as long as quantitative tightening persists and the deposit environment stays highly competitive.

我們目前預計第一季淨利息收入將在 4.8 億美元至 5 億美元之間。這假設存款保持穩定，但存款定價持續承受一定壓力，只要量化緊縮持續存在且存款環境保持高度競爭，淨利差可能進一步壓縮。

Turning to Page 8. As reported, noninterest expenses were $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter, up 9% sequentially and up 5% as compared to the prior year. Excluding notable items in both periods, as listed on the slide, expenses in the fourth quarter were up just under 2% sequentially and under 3% year-over-year. I'll touch on just a few highlights. Excluding all notable items, compensation expense was up 2% year-over-year. This reflected the impact from 2023 base pay adjustments partially offset by reductions in incentive compensation and head count actions taken year-to-date. Full time equivalent head count was down 200 or 1% sequentially and down 500 or 2% over the prior year. Excluding notable items in all periods, non-compensation expense was up 3% year-over-year. Equipment and software expense was up 10% year-over-year, largely due to increased amortization expense. Recall that as much as 2/3 of this line item is comprised of depreciation and amortization expense. And finally, we realized 200 basis points of trust fee operating leverage in the quarter.

翻到第 8 頁。據報道，第四季非利息支出為 14 億美元，比上一季成長 9%，比去年同期成長 5%。排除幻燈片中列出的兩個時期的顯著項目，第四季度的支出環比增長略低於 2%，同比增長低於 3%。我將只談幾個要點。排除所有值得注意的項目，補償費用年增 2%。這反映了 2023 年基本工資調整的影響，部分被今年迄今採取的激勵薪酬和員工人數減少行動所抵消。全職等效員工人數比上一季減少 200 人或 1%，比前一年減少 500 人或 2%。剔除所有期間的顯著項目，非薪酬費用較去年同期成長 3%。設備和軟體費用年增 10%，主要是因為攤銷費用增加。回想一下，該行項目的 2/3 是由折舊和攤提費用組成。最後，我們在本季實現了 200 個基點的信託費用營運槓桿。

Turning to the full year results on Page 9. Trust fees were down 2% in 2023, largely due to asset outflows and weaker transaction volume, partially offset by the elimination of rate-driven fee waivers and new business generation. Excluding the impact of the 2 securities repositionings, other noninterest income was down 9%, reflecting weakness in foreign exchange trading and other capital markets activities.

轉向第 9 頁的全年業績。2023 年信託費用下降了 2%，這主要是由於資產外流和交易量下降，但部分被利率驅動的費用豁免和新業務生成的取消所抵消。剔除兩次證券重新定位的影響，其他非利息收入下降9%，反映外匯交易和其他資本市場活動疲軟。

Net interest income was up over $100 million or 6%, which largely offset the decline in the other noninterest income categories. This translated to flat total revenue growth. Reported expenses were up 6% for the full year to $5.3 billion. Excluding notable items in both periods, as listed on the slide, expenses were $5.1 billion in 2023, up 4.8%, which compares favorably to 2022. As we've noticed previously, we expect to bring the expense growth rate down further in 2024.

淨利息收入成長超過 1 億美元，即 6%，很大程度上抵消了其他非利息收入類別的下降。這意味著總收入成長持平。全年報告費用成長 6%，達到 53 億美元。排除幻燈片中列出的兩個時期的顯著項目，2023 年費用為51 億美元，增長4.8%，與2022 年相比有利。正如我們之前註意到的，我們預計2024 年費用增長率將進一步下降。

We have clear line of sight to 2 key areas of increase, base pay adjustments within compensation expense and depreciation and amortization increases within equipment and software. On a blended rate, we expect to provide base pay adjustments of approximately $65 million in 2024, which will hit our compensation line beginning in the second quarter. This compares to base pay adjustments of $80 million in 2023. Within equipment and software expense, we expect a $65 million or 10% increase in 2024. Combined, these 2 line items will drive approximately 3% increase in operating expenses above 2023 levels alone. That said, we expect to continue to generate meaningful efficiency gains from our productivity office and have identified further opportunities for improvement.

我們對兩個關鍵的成長領域有明確的看法：補償費用中的基本工資調整以及設備和軟體中的折舊和攤提增加。以混合費率計算，我們預計 2024 年將提供約 6,500 萬美元的基本薪資調整，這將從第二季開始達到我們的薪資線。相較之下，2023 年基本工資調整為8,000 萬美元。在設備和軟體費用中，我們預計2024 年將增加6,500 萬美元，即10%。這兩項合計將導致營運費用比2023 年的水準增加約3%。也就是說，我們希望我們的生產力辦公室能夠繼續實現有意義的效率提升，並且已經找到了進一步的改善機會。

As we look out to the first quarter, we expect the following: First quarter compensation expense will include our annual equity incentive payments, including those for retirement-eligible employees, along with modest employee head count growth associated with growth in the underlying businesses. This should translate to a sequential increase of $50 million to $55 million. Employee benefits expense is expected to increase by approximately $10 million due to seasonally higher payroll taxes.

展望第一季度，我們預計如下：第一季度薪酬支出將包括我們的年度股權激勵付款，包括為符合退休資格的員工支付的款項，以及與基礎業務增長相關的適度員工人數增長。這應意味著連續增加 5000 萬至 5500 萬美元。由於工資稅季節性上漲，員工福利支出預計將增加約 1,000 萬美元。

Turning to Page 10. Our capital levels and regulatory ratios remained strong in the quarter. We continue to operate at levels well above our required regulatory minimums. Our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio under the standardized approach was flat with the prior quarter at 11.4% as capital accretion offset a modest increase in risk-weighted asset levels. This reflects a 440-basis point buffer above our regulatory requirements. Our Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.1%, up 20 basis points from the prior quarter. At quarter end, our unrealized pretax loss on available-for-sale securities was $924 million.

翻到第 10 頁。本季我們的資本水準和監管比率仍然強勁。我們繼續以遠高於監管最低要求的水平運作。由於資本增值抵銷了風險加權資產水準的小幅成長，標準化法下我們的普通股一級資本比率與上一季持平，為 11.4%。這反映了高於我們監管要求 440 個基點的緩衝。我們的一級槓桿率為8.1%，較上季上升20個基點。截至季末，我們的可供出售證券的未實現稅前虧損為 9.24 億美元。

We returned over $300 million to common shareholders in the quarter through cash dividends of $156 million and common stock repurchases of $146 million. For the full year, we returned approximately $980 million to common stockholders, including common stock repurchases of approximately $350 million.

本季度，我們透過 1.56 億美元的現金股利和 1.46 億美元的普通股回購，向普通股股東返還了超過 3 億美元。全年，我們向普通股股東返還約 9.8 億美元，其中包括約 3.5 億美元的普通股回購。

And with that, Ruth, please open the line for questions.

那麼，露絲，請打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

（操作員指示）我們將首先與 Evercore 一起前往 Glenn Schorr。

I appreciate all the numbers you helped us with and maybe try to peek a little bit more under the covers. So deposits stable. I heard your thoughts on 1Q NII on the further deposit pricing pressure. So the question is, as we go throughout the year, do you have any window into that stability and deposits sticking around? And then with the combination of 75% floating rate loan book and still pressure on deposits, is it reasonable to assume that NII might go down in second quarter forward before stabilizing later in the year and rising. I know that's a little bit further look into the future but ...

我感謝您為我們提供的所有數字，也許可以嘗試更多地了解幕後情況。所以存款穩定。我聽到了您對第一季 NII 對進一步存款定價壓力的看法。所以問題是，隨著全年的發展，您是否有任何機會了解穩定和存款的情況？然後，考慮到 75% 的浮動利率貸款和存款仍然面臨的壓力，可以合理地假設 NII 可能會在第二季度下降，然後在今年稍後穩定並上升。我知道這是對未來的進一步展望，但是...

Yes. But it's -- I think it's a very reasonable way to frame looking out farther end of the year. And you're right, for us to say full year numbers at this point, it's just too early. But it is good to think about how the assets and liabilities are going to react with looming rate cuts. And I think it's helpful to think back on how the impact to NIM occurred with rates rising initially was very different than what happened eventually when betas were much higher. And I think on the way down, we might have a similar situation where the first cuts may be different than the later ones.

是的。但我認為這是展望今年年底的一個非常合理的方式。你是對的，對我們來說，現在說出全年數據還為時過早。但最好考慮一下資產和負債將如何應對迫在眉睫的降息。我認為，回想一下最初利率上升對淨利差產生的影響與貝塔值高得多時最終發生的影響有何不同是有幫助的。我認為在下降過程中，我們可能會遇到類似的情況，第一次削減可能與後來的不同。

And 2 things jump out in my mind. One is, we have never tried to be a price setter in deposits. Our goal has always been keep the deposits in the house and we were very aggressive at following what we saw market pricing was. And the second thing is that as we get these initial cuts, we could see the market reacting in a way to keep deposit cost, deposit yields for clients higher to hold on to deposits. And so I think initially might be tougher than what happens eventually.

我腦海中浮現出兩件事。一是，我們從未嘗試成為存款的定價者。我們的目標始終是將存款保留在房子裡，我們非常積極地遵循我們所看到的市場定價。第二件事是，當我們進行這些初步削減時，我們可以看到市場做出反應，以保持客戶的存款成本和存款收益率更高，以保留存款。所以我認為最初可能比最終發生的事情更艱難。

Now all that said, the volumes matter a lot. And it's obviously been extremely hard for us to predict where volumes were going to go. And we saw October better than we anticipated. November was better than October. December was better than November. And so volumes are going to be critical in what happens in the first half of the year and it's just super hard to predict.

話雖如此，數量非常重要。顯然，我們很難預測銷量的去向。我們看到十月比我們預期的要好。 11 月比 10 月好。 12 月比 11 月好。因此，銷售量對於今年上半年發生的情況至關重要，而且很難預測。

I definitely appreciate that. This one might be a little bit easier to follow up, on fee operating leverage. I mean, just by means of pricing alone or the markets alone, the markets had a strong end to the fourth quarter. So your fee run rate should probably be a lot better going into the first quarter. And with your comments on even more sharper discipline on expenses, do you expect to make some meaningful progress early on in the year in this fee-to-expense ratio?

我非常欣賞這一點。透過收費營運槓桿，這可能更容易跟進。我的意思是，僅透過定價或僅透過市場來看，市場在第四季末表現強勁。因此，進入第一季度，您的費用運行率可能會好很多。鑑於您對更嚴格的支出紀律的評論，您是否期望在今年年初在費用與支出比率方面取得一些有意義的進展？

Yes, you're right to call out that there is a lift, the launch point is higher coming into the year. And I don't know if I'd say meaningful but it's definitely higher. And the lag effects will help us as we walk into the year. And so that's the math of it. But then more strategically, we do feel positive about the pipeline in both asset servicing and in wealth management. And underneath both businesses, our Asset Management business is incredibly important. And as Mike mentioned in his commentary, there's some early signs of flows back in and we always think, just as we do in deposits, just keep the money in the house, keep the client assets in the house. But if our Asset Management business does better, then that helps as well. And so I think the strategic component is also -- we're feeling early signs of some positive movement from an organic perspective.

是的，你說有提升是正確的，今年的啟動點會更高。我不知道我是否會說有意義，但它肯定更高。當我們步入新的一年時，滯後效應將對我們有所幫助。這就是它的數學原理。但從更具策略性的角度來看，我們確實對資產服務和財富管理的管道感到樂觀。在這兩項業務之下，我們的資產管理業務非常重要。正如麥克在評論中提到的，有一些資金回流的早期跡象，我們總是認為，就像我們在存款方面所做的那樣，只需將錢留在房子裡，將客戶資產留在房子裡。但如果我們的資產管理業務表現較好，那麼也會有所幫助。因此，我認為戰略組成部分也是——我們從有機角度感受到了一些積極變化的早期跡象。

We'll go next to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將採訪沃爾夫研究中心的史蒂文·丘巴克。

So I was hoping to maybe just unpack like the deposit discussion a bit further. And specifically, just get a sense as to how you're thinking through the impact of ongoing Fed QT. It does feel like a lot of the liquidity in the system has come out of RRP, that's provided a bit of stability or at least has helped drive better deposit resiliency over the last 6 months. But with the RRP expected to be exhausted over the next, call it, 3 to 4 months, just wanted to get a sense, once that happens, how you expect deposit flows to ultimately trend?

所以我希望能像存款討論那樣進一步展開討論。具體來說，了解您如何考慮正在進行的聯準會量化寬鬆的影響。確實感覺系統中的大量流動性都來自 RRP，這提供了一定的穩定性，或至少有助於在過去 6 個月中提高存款彈性。但考慮到 RRP 預計將在接下來的 3 到 4 個月內耗盡，我只是想了解一下，一旦發生這種情況，您預計存款流向最終會如何？

Yes, I'll start and Mike may have thoughts too because we talk about this a lot and it's more predictive than it is quantitatively spitting out results, frankly. But you're right that -- my sense is that the RRP program had a really significant impact on deposits. And it was effectively competing with banks for deposits. And now that it's come down, I do think that, that's been a help.

是的，我會開始，麥克也可能有想法，因為我們談論了很多，坦白說，它比定量地給出結果更具預測性。但你是對的——我的感覺是 RRP 計劃對存款產生了非常重大的影響。它實際上正在與銀行爭奪存款。現在它已經下來了，我確實認為這很有幫助。

Now from here is different. And I think -- we have to think about the fact that rate movements are going to also have an impact on how clients think about deposits. And with the deposit costs having gone up so much in the second half of the year and again, that had a big impact on deposit costs and client behavior, we could see that having an impact this year as rates come down. And so I think it's not just the RRP program but how clients think about instead of 5% rates, how they think about 3% rates and comparing that to maybe more of a risk on trade. And so I think we've got to think both about the program and the rate environment.

現在從這裡開始有所不同。我認為，我們必須考慮這樣一個事實：利率變動也會影響客戶對存款的看法。由於存款成本在今年下半年一次又一次上漲，這對存款成本和客戶行為產生了很大影響，我們可以看到，隨著利率下降，今年也會產生影響。因此，我認為這不僅僅是 RRP 計劃，還包括客戶如何看待 5% 的利率、如何看待 3% 的利率，並將其與可能更大的交易風險進行比較。因此，我認為我們必須同時考慮該計劃和利率環境。

I would agree with what Jason said there. And just as there was a transition on the way up with QE there's going to be a transition on the way down. Unchartered territory for everyone on QT and how they go about that and when they might stop more aggressively seeing their portfolio come down. So I think the timing of that will matter. And then also, we saw with client behavior that as rates went up, more of the liquidity moved into treasuries. And that had an impact on us. And as we come down, I think, over time, a lot of the funds that have moved into treasuries, will start to move into other alternatives. And as Jason said, our objective is to work with the clients and really try to meet any of those needs and keep the dollars in the house.

我同意傑森在那裡所說的。正如量化寬鬆在上升過程中出現過渡一樣，在下降過程中也會出現過渡。 QT 上的每個人都面臨著未知的領域，以及他們如何解決這個問題，以及何時他們可能會停止更積極地看到自己的投資組合下降。所以我認為時機很重要。然後，我們也從客戶行為中看到，隨著利率上升，更多的流動性流入國庫券。這對我們產生了影響。隨著我們的下降，我認為，隨著時間的推移，大量轉移到國債的資金將開始轉移到其他替代品。正如傑森所說，我們的目標是與客戶合作，真正努力滿足這些需求，並把錢留在家裡。

That's great. And just for my follow-up, the duration on the asset side of the balance sheet admittedly has been a little bit more volatile, especially given some of the repositioning actions you talked about, the asset betas with rate hikes were quite elevated for you guys and some of your trust peers as well. Just wanted to get a sense as to what percentage of the asset side of the balance sheet, if we took a snapshot today, is sensitive to movement in short rates as we do prepare for eventual rate cuts?

那太棒了。就我的後續而言，無可否認，資產負債表資產方面的久期波動性更大，特別是考慮到您談到的一些重新定位行動，加息後的資產貝塔值對你們來說相當高以及您信任的一些同行。只是想了解一下，如果我們今天進行快照，在我們為最終降息做準備時，資產負債表的資產部分對短期利率變動敏感的比例是多少？

We can do it in 3 buckets. And if you just take cash, obviously, 100% of that; the second, loans in roughly 3 quarters are rate sensitive. And you think about the securities portfolio and I'll give you 2 numbers to play with. One is, the duration is meaningful, it now about 1.8%. But also just the weighted average maturity of the portfolio, I think, is also helpful, which is a little under 4 years. And we quote this balance -- the duration of the balance sheet, that's just us doing a weighted average across those effectively, just to give a sense of the impact of the large size of the cash component and the large floating component of the loan book.

我們可以分 3 個桶子來完成。如果你只拿現金，顯然是 100%；第二，大約三個季度的貸款對利率敏感。你考慮一下證券投資組合，我會給你兩個數字供你參考。一是，持續時間是有意義的，現在約為1.8%。但我認為，投資組合的加權平均期限也很有幫助，即略低於 4 年。我們引用這個餘額——資產負債表的久期，這只是我們對這些餘額進行有效的加權平均，只是為了了解大量現金部分和貸款帳簿中大量浮動部分的影響。

And Jason, can you just clarify what percentage of the securities book today is floating?

賈森，您能澄清一下今天的證券帳簿中浮動的百分比是多少嗎？

Yes, it's about 1/3 of the book is floating.

是的，這本書大約有 1/3 是浮動的。

We'll go next to Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Just building on Steven's questions for a second. I guess given the fact that rates are expected to come down and you guys have actually been, I guess, shifting the balance sheet to be maybe a little bit more floating for the right reason and obviously been a good trade for NII for last quarter, this quarter. Any expectations to actually start locking in higher yields going forward and maybe extending duration a little bit. I know this is pretty quick, you guys have just kind of gone the other way but the balance sheet effectively became a little more floating as rates are about to come down. So just curious how you're thinking about that.

暫時以史蒂文的問題為基礎。我想考慮到利率預計會下降，而且我想你們實際上已經出於正確的原因將資產負債表調整得更加浮動，並且顯然對上個季度的 NII 來說是一筆不錯的交易，本季度。任何期望實際上開始鎖定未來更高的收益率，並可能稍微延長期限。我知道這很快，你們只是走了另一條路，但隨著利率即將下降，資產負債表實際上變得更加浮動。所以只是好奇你怎麼想的。

Yes, it's on our mind a lot and as we're talking about it and we have brought the duration down. And one of the benefit to that is that it does make it just a lot more flexible because the markets have been really dynamic. And so there will come a time when -- I anticipate where we would say it's time to step out a little bit, our bias over the last year has obviously been to go shorter and that's played out. I think rates -- in the way rates have played out, we had a view and not materially but it worked in our favor. But from here, I think we do have to think about -- it's not locking in as much as just taking the downside risk off the table of a dramatic reduction in rates. And so there's some component there that we'd say we can naturally hedge against.

是的，我們經常考慮這個問題，當我們談論它時，我們已經縮短了持續時間。這樣做的好處之一是，它確實使其更加靈活，因為市場確實充滿活力。因此，總有一天——我預計我們會說是時候稍微邁出一步了，我們去年的偏見顯然是縮短時間，而這種情況已經發生了。我認為利率——從利率的表現來看，我們有一個觀點，雖然不是實質的，但它對我們有利。但從這裡開始，我認為我們確實必須考慮——它不僅僅是鎖定利率大幅降低的下行風險。因此，我們可以自然地對沖其中的某些成分。

Got you. Makes sense. I wanted to follow up for my second one just around the expense outlook. '23 was super noisy. There's a bunch of one-timers, obviously. So I just want to clarify a couple of things. So I guess the ultimate message is that 2024 expense growth is expected to be lower than 2023. I think the core expense growth in '23 was about 5%. So I just want to confirm that. And then the core base you're speaking to, is it still kind of $5.1 billion to maybe $5.2 billion in sort of core expense base of which we should think about '24?

明白你了。說得通。我想跟進我的第二個關於費用前景的情況。 '23 超級吵。顯然，有很多一次性的人。所以我只想澄清一些事情。所以我想最終的訊息是，2024 年的費用成長預計將低於 2023 年。我認為 23 年的核心費用成長約為 5%。所以我只是想確認一下。然後你所說的核心基礎，是否仍然是 51 億至 52 億美元的核心支出基礎，我們應該考慮 24 世紀的核心支出基礎？

So confirm the '23 number we think of is 5%, just a little bit less than that, right at about 4.8%. And we are working from a base in '23 of 5.1%. And probably worthwhile to invest a minute and just explain because you're right, there have been a few things. So if you lock the reported [$5.284 billion] and then you take out in the year severance-related charges, with 2 occupancy charges that totaled about [$13 million], there was a client capability write-off, we mentioned in second quarter, $26 million; FDIC special assessment, $85 million. And then there was a small equipment credit of $4 million in the third quarter that was mentioned as well. And the severance-related charge in Q2 was $39 million, just to make sure I give you the numbers on everything. And so let's work -- that tells us we'd work from a base of 5.1%.

因此，確認我們認為的 23 年數字是 5%，僅比這個數字低一點點，約為 4.8%。我們的工作基礎是 23 年的 5.1%。也許值得花一分鐘時間解釋一下，因為你是對的，有一些事情。因此，如果您鎖定報告的[52.84 億美元]，然後在當年扣除與遣散費相關的費用，其中2 項佔用費用總計約為[1300 萬美元]，就會出現客戶能力沖銷，我們在第二季度提到過， 2600萬美元； FDIC 特別評估，8,500 萬美元。第三季也提到了 400 萬美元的小額設備信貸。第二季與遣散費相關的費用為 3900 萬美元，只是為了確保我向您提供所有數據。那麼讓我們開始工作吧——這告訴我們我們將從 5.1% 的基礎上開始工作。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

接下來我們將與瑞銀一起前往布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

We'd love to follow up on that last question actually. So thanks for clarifying the base. That's helpful. #1, just to confirm, you did mention that I think it would be inclusive of adjusting for the write-off of the client capability. Just want to confirm that. And just to clarify the message on the investing, super clear that you're looking to drive expense growth lower than you saw in 2023 but you also laid out an uplift of 3% from base paying software. So does that represent like a floor to growth? Or do you have sufficient levers to offset at least some of that?

實際上，我們很樂意跟進最後一個問題。感謝您澄清基礎。這很有幫助。 #1，只是為了確認，你確實提到我認為這將包括對客戶端能力沖銷的調整。只是想確認一下。為了澄清有關投資的信息，非常明確的是，您希望將費用增長推至低於 2023 年的水平，但您還計劃將基本付費軟體提高 3%。那麼這是否代表著成長的底線？或者你有足夠的手段來抵消至少其中的一部分？

It's not a floor but it does give you a sense of what's already in the '24 base from which we're working. And -- so we've got to use productivity to get aggressively at that. Some of our productivity work is already reflected in that but we've got to do more this year. And we wanted to be super transparent in the things that we already know that are in the '24 increase so that you guys can predict what that level is.

這不是一層地板，但它確實能讓您了解我們正在工作的 24 基地已有的情況。而且——所以我們必須利用生產力來積極實現這一目標。我們的一些生產力工作已經體現在其中，但今年我們必須做得更多。我們希望在 24 年成長中我們已經知道的事情變得超級透明，以便你們可以預測這個水平是什麼。

Okay. And is the write-off of the capability that was in other operating expense part of the adjustments too, sorry, if I missed that.

好的。沖銷其他營運費用中的能力也是調整的一部分，抱歉，如果我錯過了這一點。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Brown with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Mike Brown。

The sequential increase in the noninterest-bearing deposits, that was a positive to see this quarter. Could you just touch on maybe some of the key drivers there? Was this supported by some of the new business activity that you referenced in the prepared remarks. And then I appreciate the comments on the deposits and the potential for the stability here near term. But I guess, focusing on the NIBs, can they stabilize at this level, either in terms of like an absolute dollar basis or as a percentage of the total deposits?

無息存款連續增加，這是本季的一個積極因素。您能否談談其中的一些關鍵驅動因素？您在準備好的評論中提到的一些新業務活動是否支持了這一點？然後我很欣賞對存款和近期穩定潛力的評論。但我想，重點關注NIB，它們能否穩定在這個水平，無論是絕對美元基礎還是佔總存款的百分比？

My observation in looking at it is that it's less percentage driven and more what is that base. And the reason I mention it that way is, a lot of that NIB, it comes from one of the channels in our institutional business and it actually performed better than the rest of the institutional business and looking at it over the last few weeks. And so it just tells me that, that client -- that subclient channel behaves on its own. And it looks like that has flattened out somewhat, not necessarily calling it a plateau at this point but it certainly behaved a little bit better than the rest of the institutional book.

我的觀察是，它受百分比驅動較少，而更多的是基礎是什麼。我這樣提到的原因是，許多 NIB 來自我們機構業務的一個管道，從過去幾週的情況來看，它實際上比其他機構業務表現得更好。所以它只是告訴我，那個客戶端——那個子客戶端通道有自己的行為。看起來已經趨於平緩，不一定稱之為平台期，但它的表現肯定比機構書籍的其他部分要好一些。

And another component is the wealth book, which -- that deposit base increased in the quarter. It was not dramatically but it was nice to see that up on average. And obviously, we saw, overall the whole deposit book very flat. But nice to see that the wealth book doing well because even though the noninterest-bearing is obviously highly attractive economically, the wealth deposits are very attractive as well, not at zero but they're very attractive. And that component did well in the quarter.

另一個組成部分是財富帳簿，該季度的存款基礎有所增加。雖然不是很顯著，但很高興看到平均水平有所上升。顯然，我們看到，總體而言，整個存款簿非常平坦。但很高興看到財富簿表現良好，因為儘管無息存款在經濟上顯然極具吸引力，但財富存款也非常有吸引力，不是零，而是非常有吸引力。該組件在本季度表現良好。

Jason, I guess on the servicing side of the business, I was hoping you could maybe just touch on the competitive landscape and the alternative asset side of the business. How do you think about maybe that opportunity for Northern Trust? And how are your -- if you can just talk about your capabilities today and maybe where you're investing to take some share in that space?

傑森，我想在業務的服務方面，我希望您能談談業務的競爭格局和另類資產方面。您如何看待北方信託的這個機會？如果您能談談您今天的能力以及您在哪些方面進行投資以在該領域佔據一些份額，您的情況如何？

Yes, Mike. So I'll address that. We believe that the alternative space or broadly speaking, just private markets is a major opportunity for us on the asset servicing side. And that largely follows with what's happening in the marketplace from an investor perspective. And so we expect that market to grow. And we think we have the value proposition that is compelling within that.

是的，麥克。所以我會解決這個問題。我們認為，另類空間或廣義來說，私人市場對我們在資產服務上來說是一個重大機會。從投資者的角度來看，這很大程度上與市場上發生的事情有關。因此我們預計該市場將會成長。我們認為我們擁有令人信服的價值主張。

You heard in my comments earlier that we recently won a very large mandate with one of the large private markets firms. And it was after an exhaustive process that we went through to win that business, very capabilities oriented, very global as to the capabilities necessary and the footprint necessary to do it. So again, it's an area of focus for us and one where we think we're going to be able to continue to grow as the market grows and as we're able to take share.

您在我之前的評論中聽說，我們最近贏得了一家大型私募市場公司的一項非常大的委託。經過一個詳盡的過程，我們贏得了這項業務，非常以能力為導向，在必要的能力和必要的足跡方面非常全球化。因此，這也是我們關注的領域，我們認為隨著市場的成長和我們能夠佔據份額，我們將能夠繼續成長。

Thanks, Mike. I appreciate the commentary there.

謝謝，麥克。我很欣賞那裡的評論。

We'll go next to Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們將與摩根士丹利的瑞安·肯尼進行對話。

I have a question on capital. So your CET1 ratio, 11.4%. It's well above the regulatory minimum, well above last year's level. And then we got the comment letter from Basel Endgame a couple of days ago and there's clearly a lot of industry pushback there. Your earnings generation from NII looks a little bit higher than consensus expected. So putting that all together, how should we think about how Northern's approaching buybacks this year, in this quarter. Is there any room to maybe lean in a little bit there?

我有一個關於資本的問題。所以你的CET1比率是11.4%。它遠高於監管最低水平，遠高於去年的水平。幾天前我們收到了巴塞爾殘局的評論信，顯然存在許多行業阻力。您從 NII 獲得的收入看起來略高於共識預期。因此，將所有這些放在一起，我們應該如何考慮北方公司今年本季即將進行的回購。那裡有可以稍微傾斜的空間嗎？

Sure. So you're right in the tee up of the numbers. There's obviously room. We did a fair amount of buybacks in the quarter, a little bit more than we do on average. And we're always looking at that relative to other opportunities we have to invest capital. And so in the near term, we're thinking about, does it make more sense to invest in RWA effectively to say we could grow the loan book more. We could do more in FX. We could do more in sec lending. Or do we want to reposition the -- take a different repositioning in the securities portfolio?

當然。所以你在數字上是正確的。顯然還有空間。我們在本季度進行了大量回購，比平均水平多一點。我們總是將其與我們必須投資的其他機會聯繫起來。因此，在短期內，我們正在考慮，有效投資 RWA 是否更有意義，即我們可以進一步增加貸款規模。我們可以在外匯領域做得更多。我們可以在證券貸款方面做更多的事情。或者我們想要重新定位－在證券投資組合中採取不同的重新定位？

The repositionings we did this year were all helpful to capital because in going shorter we -- and out of non-HQLA into HQLA on that, we -- those are all helpful to capital. But you also know how closely we look at peers and we take pride in the capital levels we have. We think it's part of our financial model and our business model and talking to clients and being able to evidence to them how strong the capital base is. And so there's definitely room.

我們今年所做的重新定位都對資本有幫助，因為在縮短我們的時間，從非 HQLA 進入 HQLA，我們，這些都對資本有幫助。但您也知道我們對同行的關注有多密切，我們對我們擁有的資本水平感到自豪。我們認為這是我們財務模式和商業模式的一部分，與客戶交談並向他們證明資本基礎有多強大。所以肯定有空間。

But we also got to have in mind that Basel Endgame, which you referenced briefly, it's still unclear. We did do a comment letter, which you referenced but it's unclear what the impacts are going to be. We think we're in good position relative to peers but I want to keep an eye on that. But we'll also think about additional stock repurchases as we always do, given alternatives we have.

但我們也必須記住，您簡要提到的巴塞爾殘局仍然不清楚。我們確實寫了一封評論信，您提到過，但尚不清楚會產生什麼影響。我們認為我們相對於同行處於有利地位，但我想密切關注這一點。但考慮到我們擁有的替代方案，我們也會像往常一樣考慮額外的股票回購。

Okay. Great. And can you also update us on your expectations regarding ability and timing to dispose of the Class B Visa shares? And would that potentially have any impact on capital and buybacks outlook?

好的。偉大的。您能否向我們介紹一下您對處置 B 類 Visa 股票的能力和時機的最新期望？這是否會對資本和回購前景產生任何影響？

Yes. So just for people who don't follow it as closely, we own just over 4 million Visa B shares and at the current exchange rate, so that translates to about $1.7 billion. And there's a proposal that it's going to be voted on next week, I think, that would enable the B shareholders to monetize half of the holdings.

是的。因此，對於那些不那麼密切關注的人來說，我們擁有超過 400 萬股 Visa B 股票，以當前匯率計算，這意味著大約 17 億美元。我認為，有一項提案將於下週進行投票，這將使 B 股東能夠將一半的股份貨幣化。

So what are we planning to do? One, at this point, there's nothing to do. The proposal is still outstanding and we've got to wait and see what the shareholder vote looks like. Even assuming it passes, there are timing restrictions to it. But that said, this is not a strategic asset for Northern Trust. And so you should read into that. It's not something that we're saying we're going to hold on to beyond what the restrictions would enable us to do. And we're discussing all the options. There's likely going to be a combination of a few tools that we'll take but early to give details on that at this point.

那我們打算做什麼？一、此時此刻，沒有什麼可做的。該提案仍然懸而未決，我們必須等待，看看股東投票結果如何。即使假設它通過了，它也有時間限制。但話雖如此，這並不是北方信託的戰略資產。所以你應該仔細閱讀這一點。我們並不是說我們要堅持超出限制所能做到的事。我們正在討論所有的選擇。我們可能會結合使用一些工具，但目前還無法提供詳細資訊。

We'll go next to Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將採訪德意志銀行的布萊恩‧比德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

If I could just clarify, Jason, a couple of things you gave guidance on earlier, just to make sure I heard it right. The incremental NII from the 2 portfolio security sales is [$30 million] annualized and that comparison period is 1Q versus 4Q. Is that correct?

傑森，如果我能澄清一下您之前提供的指導的幾件事，只是為了確保我聽對了。 2 個投資組合證券銷售的增量 NII 年化為 [3,000 萬美元]，比較期間為第一季與第四季。那是對的嗎？

Yes. So you broke up a tiny bit but I think I'm following where you are but don't hesitate to tell me if I miss it. So the November repositioning helped in the quarter by, call it, $6 million. But that should be helpful going forward to the tune of -- in the neighborhood of $15 million a quarter. The January repositioning, which we mentioned for the first time a little while ago, that should help in the quarter about -- round number is about $15 million a quarter.

是的。所以你們分手了一點，但我想我正在關注你們的情況，但如果我想念的話，請毫不猶豫地告訴我。因此，11 月的重新定位為該季度帶來了 600 萬美元的幫助。但這應該會對每季 1500 萬美元左右的業績有所幫助。我們不久前首次提到的 1 月重新定位應該會對本季有所幫助——大約每季 1500 萬美元。

$15 million per quarter. Okay. And then on the expense side, maybe just, again, trying to get some more clarity on the total expense growth. I think you said comp expense being up [$50 million to $55 million] 1Q versus 4Q because of the retirement of eligible options and then employee benefits up $10 million versus 4Q. So correct me if I'm wrong on that. And then just translating that into expense growth through the year. Obviously, there's lots of different levers. But is the idea to try to improve on the 3% expense contribution from that -- from a total growth perspective? Or should we be thinking of expense growth stay better than 5% -- lower than 5% but potentially higher than 3%. And can you improve that trust expense to capacity ratio in '24 from '23?

每季 1500 萬美元。好的。然後在費用方面，也許只是再次嘗試更清楚地了解總費用增長。我想你說過，第一季的補償費用比第四季增加了 [5,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元]，因為合格選擇權的退役，然後員工福利比第四季增加了 1000 萬美元。所以如果我錯了請糾正我。然後將其轉化為全年費用增長。顯然，有很多不同的槓桿。但從整體成長的角度來看，是否有嘗試改善 3% 費用貢獻的想法？或者我們是否應該考慮費用成長保持在 5% 以上——低於 5%，但可能高於 3%。您能否從 23 年提高 24 年的信託費用與容量比率？

Yes. So, couple of things. One, confirm your numbers are right on first quarter and the step up. Remember, both of those are fully seasonal, Brian, so the step-up in first quarter is just because that's the booking of our retirement eligible equity grants. And so that in and of itself represents the vast majority of that step-up. And then similarly, we've got a higher payroll tax in first quarter just as we hit the caps on that level. But both of those numbers come back down for second, third, fourth quarter. That said, second quarter got to build in the base pay adjustments that we referenced, which is that $65 million, that will be second, third, fourth quarter.

是的。所以，有幾件事。第一，確認第一季和後續成長的數字是正確的。請記住，這兩者都是完全季節性的，布萊恩，所以第一季的成長只是因為這是我們退休資格股權補助的預訂。因此，這本身就代表了這項進步的絕大多數。同樣，當我們達到該水平的上限時，我們在第一季獲得了更高的工資稅。但這些數字在第二、第三、第四季均有所回落。也就是說，第二季必須建立我們提到的基本薪資調整，即第二、第三、第四季的 6,500 萬美元。

So all that said, the goal is to do better than the roughly 5% we did this year. The 3% was not seen as the -- again, back to it's not seen as a floor. But also, that's a big difference to go from 5% down to 3%. And so we're using the productivity to do everything we can to get materially better than the 5%. But the fact that we're walking in with 3% already in the base is just going to make it difficult. And so I think it's -- and the last thing I'll mention is, for us, we're anticipating organic growth. That's our -- we target -- we have organic growth targets for each of the 3 businesses. And we want to continue to be a growth company. That is important. And that drives some expenses in addition to expectation of what we're doing from a revenue perspective. And so it's hard to fine-tune much with -- to say is it between 3% and 5%, if -- we're not doing as well from an organic perspective, we're going to be working really hard to say what else do we do to make sure we're doing the right thing and we get a positive fee operating leverage.

話雖如此，我們的目標是比今年的大約 5% 做得更好。 3% 不被視為－再說一遍，它不被視為下限。但從 5% 降到 3% 也是一個很大的差異。因此，我們正在利用生產力來盡我們所能，以在實質上比 5% 的人更好。但事實是，我們已經有 3% 的人進入基地，這只會讓事情變得困難。所以我認為——我要提到的最後一件事是，對我們來說，我們預計有機成長。這就是我們的目標，我們為這 3 項業務中的每一項都制定了有機成長目標。我們希望繼續成為一家成長型公司。這很重要。除了從收入角度對我們正在做的事情的預期之外，這也帶來了一些費用。因此，很難進行太多微調 - 可以說是在 3% 到 5% 之間，如果 - 從有機的角度來看，我們做得不好，我們將非常努力地說明什麼除此之外，我們還要做些什麼來確保我們做的是正確的事情，並獲得積極的費用營運槓桿。

We'll go next to Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

接下來我們將與 Seaport Global 的吉姆·米切爾 (Jim Mitchell) 進行交流。

Maybe just to follow-up on that last comment, just maybe a little more detail. It seems like organic growth in '23, it was a tough environment, a little mixed. So it seems like you're more optimistic across the board. So if you can kind of just give us a little more thoughts, detail on the organic growth prospects this year?

也許只是為了跟進最後的評論，也許只是更多細節。看起來像是 23 年的有機成長，那是一個艱難的環境，有點複雜。所以看來你對整體情況比較樂觀。那麼，您能否給我們更多關於今年有機成長前景的想法和細節？

Sure, Jim. It's Mike. I'll start off here. So you're absolutely right. We've gone through I would say a time period where the organic growth has definitely been strained and lower than our historical levels. And there's a number of factors behind that, that we've talked about over the preceding earnings calls that relate to client activity, that relate to some of the outflows that we had in the asset management business, which obviously impact then wealth management and asset servicing. And the reason why we're so positive going forward here on organic growth, some of those trends, as we've talked about, have turned around. And so we see good inflows into asset management. So that aspect of it is a lift going forward to our organic growth but then also the strategies that we have in place to drive profitable organic growth.

當然，吉姆。是麥克。我將從這裡開始。所以你是完全正確的。我想說，我們經歷了一段時期，有機成長肯定很緊張，而且低於我們的歷史水平。這背後有很多因素，我們在之前的財報電話會議上已經討論過，這些因素與客戶活動有關，與我們在資產管理業務中的一些資金外流有關，這顯然會影響財富管理和資產管理。服務。我們之所以如此積極地推動有機成長，正如我們所討論的，其中一些趨勢已經發生了逆轉。因此，我們看到大量資金流入資產管理領域。因此，這方面不僅推動了我們的有機成長，也推動了我們為推動獲利性有機成長而製定的策略。

Where we've been focused as a company is in a couple of areas, there are few areas. One is really looking at the portfolio of our growth. So historically, asset servicing has been the majority of the organic growth. And looking forward, we're looking to shift that more towards the more scalable parts of our business. So wealth management and asset management. That doesn't mean that the asset servicing business will not be growing. It's just -- we're very focused within that business to the areas that scale the most.

作為一家公司，我們專注於幾個領域，但領域很少。一是真正關注我們成長的投資組合。從歷史上看，資產服務一直是有機成長的主要部分。展望未來，我們希望將其更多地轉向我們業務中更具可擴展性的部分。所以財富管理和資產管理。這並不意味著資產服務業務不會成長。只是——我們非常專注於該業務中規模最大的領域。

So if you think about the nature of all the things we do for clients on that front, some of those activities are more scalable, more profitable than others. And so we'll lean towards those areas. I mentioned the success we've had with asset owners in the Americas. A lot of that is the custody and related services on that front. That's some of the more scalable services that we have. And it's, again, not to say that we won't be doing the business with the asset managers, some fund services but some of those areas are more resource intensive. And so we're going to be really disciplined about the types of business that we take in, that require hiring more people, investing more in particular technologies around that.

因此，如果你考慮我們在這方面為客戶所做的所有事情的本質，其中一些活動比其他活動更具可擴展性、更有利可圖。因此我們將傾向於這些領域。我提到了我們與美洲資產所有者的成功。其中很大一部分是這方面的託管和相關服務。這是我們擁有的一些更具可擴展性的服務。再說一次，這並不是說我們不會與資產管理公司、一些基金服務開展業務，但其中一些領域的資源更加密集。因此，我們將嚴格遵守我們所從事的業務類型，這些業務類型需要雇用更多人員，並在相關特定技術上進行更多投資。

And then the last thing I would say just around the organic growth and why we're optimistic on it is, the businesses are working, I would say, much more closely together in how we go to market. So as we would call it here, 1 Northern Trust is our approach to the marketplace. So it's not separate businesses but rather to the extent that we're going to approach a client or a prospect to work with them, it's going to include multiple offerings from across the businesses, particularly asset management with asset servicing, on the front end, as part of a bundle that we're offering to the clients.

關於有機成長以及我們為何對此持樂觀態度，我要說的最後一件事是，我想說的是，在我們進入市場的方式上，企業正在更加緊密地合作。因此，正如我們在這裡所說的那樣，1 Northern Trust 是我們進入市場的方式。因此，這不是獨立的業務，而是在我們要接觸客戶或潛在客戶並與他們合作的範圍內，它將包括跨業務的多種產品，特別是前端的資產管理和資產服務，作為我們向客戶提供的捆綁包的一部分。

And then certainly with Wealth Management as well. You heard in some of our earlier comments here, the advisory fee component of wealth management has been growing nicely through the year. We think that it can grow at a higher rate. But importantly, the more that we can do on the product side with those clients as well. So as we talk about the transitioning with quantitative tightening, for example and the move out of short-term treasuries to the extent that we can help those clients move into fixed income funds, for example. That's a real opportunity for us. So a number of things that we're doing to proactively try to drive that organic growth.

當然還有財富管理。您在我們之前的一些評論中聽說過，財富管理的諮詢費部分在這一年中成長良好。我們認為它可以以更高的速度成長。但重要的是，我們在產品方面也可以為這些客戶做更多的事情。因此，當我們談論量化緊縮的過渡時，例如，我們可以幫助這些客戶轉向固定收益基金，從而退出短期國債。這對我們來說是一個真正的機會。因此，我們正在做很多事情來積極嘗試推動有機成長。

That's really great color, Mike. And maybe just a quick follow-up on deposit pricing. Jason, you talked about still some pressure on overall deposit costs. Is that lags still on pricing? Or is that an assumption of a negative mix shift out of NIBs. What's kind of driving further pricing pressure on deposits?

這真是很棒的顏色，麥克。也許只是存款定價的快速跟進。傑森，您談到整體存款成本仍然存在一些壓力。定價仍然滯後嗎？或者這是 NIB 出現負混合轉移的假設。是什麼進一步推動存款定價壓力？

Yes. It's lags. And we actually, in the fourth quarter, made some agreements on pricing that will come into play in the first quarter more than they did in the fourth quarter. And it didn't drive deposit volumes higher in fourth quarter but it is something that as we try to do more fine-tuned predictions of what first quarter would look like. It's something that we factored in. We think that costs will be higher. And that's part of the reason why even though we ended it at [$501 million] and I indicated that December was better than November and October, we think we're still going to be flat to down a little bit in the first quarter, largely because of that pricing element.

是的。是有滯後啊實際上，我們在第四季度就定價達成了一些協議，這些協議將在第一季比第四季發揮更多作用。它並沒有推動第四季度的存款量增加，但當我們試圖對第一季的情況進行更微調的預測時，就會出現這種情況。這是我們考慮到的因素。我們認為成本會更高。這就是為什麼即使我們以 [5.01 億美元] 結束，並且我表示 12 月比 11 月和 10 月更好，我們認為第一季我們的收入仍將持平甚至略有下降，主要是因為這個定價因素。

And in general, we do -- our view is that as the Fed does reduce rates, we're going to have client conversations about it. And again, we're not a price setter but highly committed to making sure our clients leave their deposits here.

總的來說，我們的觀點是，隨著聯準會確實降低利率，我們將與客戶就此進行對話。再說一次，我們不是價格製定者，但高度致力於確保我們的客戶將存款留在這裡。

We'll go next to Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research.

接下來我們將討論自主研究領域的 Rob Wildhack。

One more question on expenses. I'm curious how you would approach a hypothetical year where revenue growth comes in a lot better than expected and what that might mean for expense growth. I guess the core question is, what takes precedent, your expense-to-fee ratio or the absolute level of expense growth this year?

還有一個關於費用的問題。我很好奇你會如何對待收入成長遠好於預期的假設年份，以及這對費用成長可能意味著什麼。我想核心問題是，今年的費用與費用比率或費用成長的絕對水準有什麼先例？

I'll start and Mike may want to add to it. Historically, we'd say, well, we want to grow and -- but we have talked about ensuring that we were committed to more of an absolute number in terms of the expenses. And we've also committed to more scalable growth. And so we're already having conversations internally about ensuring that we're highly disciplined on bringing on business that is scalable. And so I think that is a change relative to how we've thought about it before, where there was more of a desire to bring on business at always at attractive margin. But our commitment to scalable growth is going to be -- is higher at this point. And that means that the expenses shouldn't be as volatile with anticipation or even line of sight on new business coming on that brings with it a high degree of expense.

我先開始，麥克可能想補充一下。從歷史上看，我們會說，我們想要成長——但我們已經討論過確保我們致力於更多的絕對數字的支出。我們也致力於實現更具規模的成長。因此，我們已經在內部進行對話，以確保我們在開展可擴展的業務方面遵守嚴格的紀律。因此，我認為與我們之前的想法相比，這是一個變化，我們更希望始終以有吸引力的利潤開展業務。但目前我們對可擴展成長的承諾將會更高。這意味著費用不應該隨著預期甚至對即將出現的新業務的視線而波動，從而帶來高額費用。

Yes. So I agree with what Jason said there. Just to add to your point, we're outside of our range on expense-to-trust fee ratio. So we're trying to drive that into the range. And so as Jason is indicating, we're leaning towards trying to get into that range sooner rather than later.

是的。所以我同意傑森在那裡所說的。補充一點，我們的費用與信託費用比率超出了我們的範圍。所以我們正在努力將其納入範圍內。正如傑森所指出的，我們傾向於儘早進入這個範圍。

Okay. And then on NII, I would just love to get your thoughts on the sensitivity there as it relates to different scenarios from the Fed. What's the impact of, say, 1 or 2 Fed cuts this year, as opposed to, say, 6 Fed cuts?

好的。然後，關於 NII，我很想了解您對那裡的敏感性的看法，因為它與美聯儲的不同情景有關。聯準會今年降息 1 到 2 次，而不是聯準會降息 6 次，會產生什麼影響？

Yes, those are the scenarios we're looking at but I'd come back to this theme. It's just going to depend on how well we're able to hang on to spread. And we -- and there's just been highly variable. And I think our ability to predict just over the last couple of quarters has been really hard. But I feel really good about the volumes that stayed in place. And so I think our approach has worked but it's going to make it less predictable. It's the opposite of what we just talked about on the expense side, ironically, where we're saying we want to be more predictable on the expenses to try and get that expense-to-trustee ratio where we want it to be. On the deposit side, there's more flexibility and more willingness to follow where the market goes to make sure we're holding on the client assets.

是的，這些是我們正在考慮的場景，但我會回到這個主題。這只取決於我們能否堅持傳播。而我們——而且變化很大。我認為我們在過去幾個季度的預測能力非常困難。但我對保留下來的數​​量感到非常滿意。所以我認為我們的方法是有效的，但它會使其更難以預測。諷刺的是，這與我們剛才在費用方面談到的相反，我們說我們希望在費用方面更加可預測，以嘗試使費用與受託人的比率達到我們想要的水平。在存款方面，我們有更大的彈性，也更願意跟隨市場的趨勢，以確保我們持有客戶資產。

We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

接下來我們將與富國銀行一起去麥克梅奧。

This is Rob Rutschow, for Mike. Just wanted to follow up on the custody commentary a little bit more. As we calculated, your fees assets under custody were down about 5% year-over-year. You mentioned client outflows. So how much of that is kind of risk off versus actual pricing pressure. What is -- what was the new business this year? And what's the outlook for pricing pressure versus new business as we look into '24?

我是麥克的 Rob Rutschow。只是想進一步跟進監護權的評論。據我們計算，您託管的資產費用較去年同期下降了約 5%。您提到了客戶外流。那麼其中有多少是風險規避與實際定價壓力的比較。今年的新業務是什麼？當我們展望 24 世紀時，定價壓力與新業務的前景如何？

Yes, I'll start and then, Jason, you can fill it out. But first of all, I just think you need to take into account that we are compensated sometimes on the asset level, sometimes on the transaction levels. And transaction volumes were lower during the year. So that drove some of the weakness in the custody fees there.

是的，我會開始，然後傑森，你可以填寫它。但首先，我認為你需要考慮到我們有時在資產層面獲得補償，有時在交易層面獲得補償。年內交易量下降。因此，這導致了那裡的託管費的一些疲軟。

From a pricing perspective, I would say nothing in particular as far as the competitive environment that is driving custody pricing to much lower levels, if you will, I would say it's relatively stable on the pricing front there.

從定價的角度來看，我不會特別說競爭環境正在將託管定價推向更低的水平，如果你願意的話，我會說那裡的定價相對穩定。

And as I look at just the underlying details of how we did, I think you're leaning more towards the asset servicing business. The net new business for the year was positive. And year-over- -- I'm just thinking year-over-year for the quarter and asset servicing hit its mark on net new business. The issue with the company is some of the other things happening as we get into transactions and then what we referenced earlier, in our clients going through their asset levels declining but much less of a repricing story relative to prior years. And the business is winning. If we just look at their win rate in the market, it is strong. So a lot of this year, the impact came from these other dynamics of lower transaction volumes and same number of clients but less assets.

當我審視我們的做法的基本細節時，我認為您更傾向於資產服務業務。本年度淨新業務為正。與去年同期相比——我只是在考慮本季的同比情況，資產服務在淨新業務方面取得了顯著的成績。該公司的問題是我們進入交易時發生的其他一些事情，以及我們之前提到的，我們的客戶經歷了資產水平下降，但與前幾年相比，重新定價的情況​​要少得多。而且生意正在贏。如果我們只看他們在市場上的勝率，那就是很強的。因此，今年的許多影響來自交易量下降和客戶數量相同但資產減少等其他動態。

Okay. And if I could follow up on wealth. I guess, can you talk about the competitive dynamic there and especially in Global Family Office, you saw a little bit of deceleration in the growth rate. Any changes or any areas that you're looking to grow, inside the U.S. or out?

好的。如果我能追蹤財富的話。我想，您能談談那裡的競爭動態嗎？特別是在全球家族辦公室，您看到成長率略有放緩。您在美國境內或境外有任何變化或希望發展的領域嗎？

You're right to call it. GFO had a lower -- much lower growth rate than it has over the last couple of years. It's been -- the last couple of years have been excellent for that business. And this year was weaker but we always talk about the fact that is the spikiest business that we have, very small number of client activity can lead to meaningful change. And it's also one of the businesses where with what happens underneath from an investment management perspective can have a meaningful impact on how the business is doing.

你這麼稱呼是對的。 GFO 的成長率比過去幾年低得多。過去幾年該業務的表現非常出色。今年表現較弱，但我們總是談論這樣一個事實，即我們擁有的最活躍的業務，極少數的客戶活動可以帶來有意義的變化。從投資管理的角度來看，這也是一種可以對業務運作方式產生有意義影響的業務。

But we've actually invested heavily in that business. They've got a lot of accomplishments in technology and some of the things that they have done with their Wealth Passport, their overall technology platform, we feel is industry-leading -- it is industry leading. Just the way that they've -- they're now interacting with clients from that platform perspective, what clients are able to do with multiple accounts and reporting and client asset movement -- all coming -- and a lot of -- and it's all cloud-enabled, is what we've done recently. And so it's highly, at the -- market leading from our view in terms of what we're doing. And we're continuing to invest in that business from a technology perspective. So there's more coming, which makes us feel very optimistic about what that business is going to do over the next couple of years.

但我們實際上已經在該業務上投入了大量資金。他們在技術方面取得了很多成就，他們用財富護照、他們的整體技術平台所做的一些事情，我們認為是行業領先的——它是行業領先的。就像他們現在從平台角度與客戶互動一樣，客戶能夠透過多個帳戶和報告以及客戶資產移動來做什麼——所有這些都會到來——而且是很多——而且一切都支援雲，這是我們最近所做的。因此，從我們的觀點來看，就我們正在做的事情而言，它在市場上處於高度領先地位。我們將繼續從技術角度投資該業務。所以還會有更多的事情發生，這讓我們對該業務在未來幾年的發展感到非常樂觀。

This does conclude the question-and-answer portion of today's call. I would like to turn the call back over to Jennifer Childe for any closing comments.

今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我想將電話轉回詹妮弗·柴爾德（Jennifer Childe）以徵求結束意見。

Thanks, Ruth and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

謝謝露絲，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待很快再次與您交談。

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。