Netscout Systems Inc (NTCT) 2005 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to NetScout's first-quarter operating results conference call. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). With us today is NetScout's President and CEO, Mr. Anil Singhal. He is accompanied by NetScout's Chief Financial Officer, Mr. David Sommers. Also with Mr. Singhal is NetScout's Director of Investor Relations, Ms. Cathy Taylor.

  • At this time for opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Singhal. Please go ahead, sir.

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to NetScout's first quarter of fiscal year 2005 conference call for the period ended June 30th. I will begin our call today with a brief overview of our financial results achieved this quarter, followed by a summary of our operating highlights for the recent quarter and for the fiscal year. David will then review our financial results for the quarter and the fiscal year in greater detail.

  • First, let me turn the call over to Cathy Taylor, Director of Investor Relations, who will read the Safe Harbor statement.

  • Cathy Taylor - Director of IR

  • Thank you, Anil. During the course of this conference call, we will be providing you with a discussion of the factors we currently anticipate that may influence our results going forward. Before doing so, we want to emphasize these forward-looking statements may involve judgment and that individual judgments made vary. Forward-looking statements include expressed or implied statements regarding future economic and market conditions, revenues, profitability, growth, delivery and market acceptance of NetScout products.

  • It should be clearly understood that the projections on which we base our guidance and our perception of the factors influencing those projections are highly likely to change over time. Although those projections and the factors influencing them will likely change, we will not necessarily inform you when they do. Our Company policy is to provide guidance only at certain points in the year such as during the quarterly earnings call. We do not plan to otherwise update that guidance.

  • Actual results may differ materially from what we say today, and no one should assume later in the quarter that the comments we provide today are still valid. These and other specific factors could change causing our projections not to be achieved. Specific risks and uncertainties are discussed in NetScout's Form 10-K for the year ended March 31st, 2004 on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

  • And with that, I will now turn the call back over to Anil Singhal, our Chief Financial Officer.

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Cathy. Once again we are pleased with our financial performance this quarter, particularly because it is our seasonably slow first quarter. We exceeded both revenue and EPS guidance for the quarter and posted our fourth consecutive quarter of increasing revenue. The revenue for the quarter was $20.1 million compared to last quarter's revenue of $19.5 million and compared to $15.6 million a year ago. We have continued to see increased sales activity, and we have improved visibility moving into our second quarter.

  • We also posted a $297,000 net after-tax profit compared to last quarter's net loss of $177,000 and compared to a net loss of $552,000 a year ago. Our earnings per share were positive with a 1 cent per share profit compared to last quarter's loss of 1 cent per share and compared to a loss of 2 cents per share a year ago. We had a positive cash flow from operations with cash increasing by $1 million to a total of $76.5 billion.

  • Now turning onto some operating highlights of this first quarter. One of our important goals this year is to continue to capture market share and gain competitor advantage. We intend to do that by providing increased value and functionality to our products at the lowest total cost of ownership to our customers. This quarter we added another software enhancement to deliver on this promise and to further demonstrate the strength and adaptability of our CDM technology.

  • A number of customers have a investment in Legacy-based analysis tools such as (inaudible) products and other third-party based analysis solutions they need to protect. Our customers also required a performance management solution such as nGenius, offering the latest technology and application performance management. To meet these needs, we released a new software model called nGenius Trace Analyzer Integrator that allows nGenius Performance Manager and probes to interoperate with our customers Legacy trace analysis products. This software enhancement allows our customers to integrate their current trace analysis installation into our advanced nGenius performance management system. By reducing (inaudible) with our universal data source, that is nGenius probes, we are helping our customers increase efficiencies and ROI of their network.

  • We are also enhancing our products to address new network functionality. As we have already done for OC-3, OC-12 and ATM packet over SONET, ethernet total CDM network and others, we recently released new features for monitoring the performance of application for enterprises using multi protocol label switching or MPLS in their wide area networks. Many of our customers are challenged by reduced application visibility when implementing MPLS services. This enhancement restores critical visibility into the usage and the responsive method of application that would otherwise be obscured in MPLS environment.

  • We added a large reseller (inaudible) and made significant improvement to our reseller program. (inaudible) reseller program into a multitier challenge program that we believe will better incentivize new and existing channel partners. Our new channel program provides structured programs with additional support planning, marketing resources and promotion. We recognized that our channel partners play an important role in our growth model for enterprises worldwide and the government. We believe that our new reseller programs will elevate the market with the ability of our new products.

  • Further enhancing our partner relationship, we announced a new agreement with Evident Software to jointly integrate our product lines to deliver the premier IT cost analysis solution for our customer's application delivery networks. Our probes are used as a universal data collector and consolidator of line network and application data that can then be used for performance management purposes and forwarded to evident software for detailed IT cost analysis.

  • We have been working with Evident on several large projects, including a worldwide financial institution that has outsourced its infrastructure. Our process apply around the world to help manage IT costs under the outsourcing agreement.

  • Our results this quarter were especially satisfying in the U.S. federal government sector. We have been steadily investing sales and marketing resources into this important industry segment in order to take advantage of technology modernization and (inaudible) and initiative and believe we will see continued strength as a result.

  • In summary, we are pleased with our results this quarter, and we continue to see strength in order flows and good visibility going into our second quarter. Our CDM strategy continues to gain more traction in the marketplace, and we look forward to sharing our successes with you in the coming quarters as our fiscal year progresses.

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to David.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Thank you, Anil. I would now like to review our quarterly financial results. Those results are contained in the financial statements included with our press release.

  • Revenue for the first fiscal quarter of 2005 was $20.1 million, an increase of 3 percent over last quarter and 29 percent over the first quarter of fiscal year 2004. Our product revenue decreased 2 percent over last quarter and increased 34 percent from a year ago. Service revenue was up 11 percent over last quarter and up 24 percent year-over-year.

  • Licensing royalty revenue was down 7 percent from last quarter but up 3 percent from a year ago. Revenue from our direct sales force was 50 percent compared to 48 percent last quarter. Reseller revenue correspondingly was 50 percent of total compared to 52 percent last quarter.

  • During this quarter, we added 21 new customers worldwide, representing 8 percent of total orders compared to 10 percent in the fourth quarter. Among some of our largest new customers are Western Area Power, UNB Bank, BNP Paribas, and Hamburger Sparkasse.

  • We had 267 repeat customers this quarter representing 92 percent of order volume. Some of our repeat customers include Visa, Consumers Energy, Eastman Kodak, Johnson Controls, Cargill and XM Satellite Radio. We had 49 customers with order volume over $100,000 this quarter, including four customers with order volume greater than $1 million.

  • Competitive wins totaled more than $4.9 million in the first quarter, involving 28 deals against other leading network management vendors.

  • Turning now to our vertical markets. Similar to last quarter, we saw continued success in the financial services sector representing 42 percent of order dollar volume, followed by the government sector with 20 percent of orders and the telecommunications sector with 10 percent.

  • We also had significant orders from the manufacturing, healthcare and high-tech sectors. During the quarter, we competitively won a new relationship with BNP Paribas in Europe. BNP Paribas is a leading global financial services group with one of the largest international banking networks in the world, extending to 85 countries with 89,000 employees. This new relationship is to help BNP Paribas solve network outages caused by IP multicast storms. IP multicast storms are a significant concern for banking and other customers with revenue generating networks. NetScout's ability to provide solutions for complex challenges such as IP multicast deployment, as part of a management solution is a key element of our competitive advantage.

  • We saw strength coming from the government sector with a large repeat order coming from the U.S. Central Command Air Force or CENTAF responsible for command of air operations throughout Southwest Asia. In a prior call, we told you about the implementation of our solution to ensure that performance of real-time defense systems in the recent war efforts in Iraq and throughout the Middle East. As a result of the success of that implementation, NetScout is now being used by CENTAF in additional network operations in Iraq. The success is a result of joint selling activities with our partner, OPNET.

  • We had another win in the telecommunications sector, continuing a trend we are seeing with large wireless service providers using our solution in their customer facing networks. Telmar Mobil is a major mobile service provider in Norway that is using our solution to monitor their high-value revenue generating applications for mobile service features such as cellphone Internet access, text messaging, voicemail and telefax. Prior to using nGenius, Telmar Mobile had less visibility into the applications enabling these services, and therefore, it was difficult for them to troubleshoot and manage the bandwidth requirements for these important applications.

  • Now with nGenius they are able to isolate performance problems and ensure the efficient delivery of these revenue generating applications to their customers. This is one of several such wireless orders this quarter.

  • Turning back to our financial picture, our gross profit for the quarter was $15.4 million, up 3 percent sequentially and up 31 percent year-over-year. Gross margin was 77 percent in the quarter, up 1 point sequentially and 2 points year-over-year and above our gross margin target range of 72 to 75 percent. The gross margin strength was due to high service content in our revenue mix in the quarter. We expect gross margin to return to our target range as product revenue grows in the future.

  • Revenue from international sales was 14 percent of total revenue, down from 23 percent last quarter due principally to weakness in Europe. Operating expenses in total were $15.1 million, down 4 percent from last quarter and up 17 percent year-over-year. We had an operating profit this quarter that was slightly better than anticipated, mainly due to gross margin strength and the slow pace of new hiring. The decrease quarter-over-quarter was due to seasonally higher expenses that occurred last quarter principally from higher sales commissions.

  • Net after-tax profit for the quarter was $297,000 versus a net after-tax loss of $177,000 last quarter and a net after-tax loss of $552,000 a year ago.

  • Turning now to a few balance sheet measures. Cash and marketable securities are $76.5 million, an increase of $1 million from last quarter and up $3.3 million year-over-year. Accounts Receivable net of allowances were $11.5 million compared to $10.9 million last quarter and $8.6 million a year ago. Days sales outstanding were 51 days for the quarter, up from 49 days in the prior quarter and within our target range of 45 to 55 days. Inventories were up $3.0 million, down 11 percent from last quarter and up 25 percent year-over-year.

  • And now for our guidance. We are only issuing guidance for the September quarter today. We expect second-quarter revenue to be in the range of $20 to $21 million. We expect net income earnings per share to be in the range of 0 to 1 cent per share, and we expect to be cash positive in the quarter.

  • This is the conclusion of our guidance. We plan to provide further guidance at the end of each quarter in our succeeding conference calls. We do not plan to and disclaim any obligation to provide updates to this information even though our expectations may change during the quarter.

  • And now Anil and I will take your questions. Please go ahead, Kerry.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Eric Martinuzzi, Craig-Hallum.

  • Eric Martinuzzi - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, Anil, David and Cathy. I have a question regarding the revenue achievement in Q1 and how that is going to translate into the Q2 guidance. You saw strong federal government business and you saw weakness in Europe. I am wondering to what extent those two are dealt with in the guidance for Q2?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • There are dealt with in the guidance. Our process is to look closely at our pipeline for the quarter and to forecast pretty tightly what we expect the yield will be out of that pipeline for the quarter, including all industry segments at the deal level. Right? So we do not do it at an aggregate level; we do it at a deal by deal level.

  • Eric Martinuzzi - Analyst

  • Is it fair to say, though, that you don't expect a continuation of weakness in Europe or that you do?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Well, I think in general the weakness in Europe was an unusual event for us. We don't think it is a secular change. We did have a bad quarter. We don't expect that to recur.

  • Eric Martinuzzi - Analyst

  • Okay. And then on the federal side, I know fiscal year-end for the federal government is September. Is there seasonality? Could we see that significant percentage of revenue coming from federal in September as well?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Well, it is possible, although you will note that in our discussion that we had one large Air Force deal that we talked about. That deal drove the percentage of revenue up, and there is no guarantee that a deal that size is going to recur. So we expect our federal revenue to be good, but it may not be up to the same contribution percentage that we had in the June quarter.

  • Eric Martinuzzi - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Richard Sherman, Janney Montgomery Scott.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Good afternoon, guys. Let's see here, the European business was weak. Can you give us maybe the breakout of the percentage APAC versus EMEA on a (inaudible) number?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Yes, we can. Hold on a second. Asia was 5 percent, and Europe was 9.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Okay. (multiple speakers). I'm sorry --?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • 5 and 9.

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • We were just checking.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • 5 and 9.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • And then I guess in the report or in the press release you had said that you had four customers with deals over $1 million. I don't think we are used to seeing that statistic released too often. Can you maybe compare that with your prior quarter or the year ago quarter, and do you expect more of these million-dollar deals in your guidance for the September period?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • We do not have that data. We have been talking about larger deals, but I'm not sure we have talked about it as over $1 million deals regularly. They do happen to us occasionally. This is a high quarter for us, and it is a good thing that our existing customers are coming back to us for these large additional orders obviously. We cannot predict that we will continue to have four multimillion dollar orders or over $1 million orders going forward. But we will I think continue to release this statistic, and if it is useful to you, we can try to recreate that going backwards.

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • Let me say about it, we have many times, many deals in the 800,000-900,000 range. So if you just report that somehow sometimes they might get excluded. I just wanted to mention that we had in the past -- it may not be exactly $1 million -- but several in the 800,000-900,000 range.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Okay. I have got you on that. Did you say, David, that all those million-dollar deals were existing customers?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Yes.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Okay. And then could you just maybe quickly review the headcount and the sales headcount?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Yes. I am flipping through my headcount chart. Hold on a second. Total headcount was 351 for the quarter. Number of salesmen was up to 47. I think that is up one from the prior quarter.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • And last question I guess would be, with Sniffer now being extracted from what was Network Associates, could you maybe comment on what you're seeing in terms of the selling environment? Was there an appreciable easing of selling in the marketplace? Is that likely to continue, or did you see not much impact on Sniffer? Was it still as prevalent as they had been, albeit at a weakened state then potentially a year or two years ago?

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • I think we don't see any major change in the last two or three quarters. Some of the effects were already seen a couple of quarters ago and that is continuing. I think going forward I think there will be both positive and negative, positive in terms of having marketable vendors and competition creates our business. At the same time, there will be more competition because they will be more focused. So we see it overall positive going forward.

  • Operator

  • Bob Becker, Argus Research.

  • Bob Becker - Analyst

  • Good afternoon and congratulations on a solid quarter. I was hoping you could comment on what you think the long-term growth rate for network performance management products might be? And if you could put that in the form of a range, I think that would be very helpful.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Well, we don't really opine on the market segment as a whole. We do look at outside services such as IDC, and they have a segment called Network Availability Management in which we are included, along with many of our nearby competitors and some that are not so close to us, like HP OpenView for example.

  • Their last fall outlook, which is the last time they did this, was for about 2.5 percent growth for the next four years as I recall. That is rather uninspiring. We think it is low. Their numbers for a year before that were 12.5 percent for the same sector. So I mean, you hear, we hear of size single digits, low double-digit, IT spending growth. We think that network performance management is a technology whose best time is still ahead. So we would expect that the segment would grow at least as fast, if not faster than that. But that is probably the best we can offer. And it clearly is our intent to outgrow that segment as a whole ourselves.

  • Bob Becker - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Joseph Craigen, Needham & Co..

  • Ghandi Rutless - Analyst

  • This is actually Ghandi Rutless (ph). I will be sitting in for Joseph Craigen. I was wondering if you could provide some color on the application that you are still in the process of going into. Are you seeing more storage, security, voiceover-IP?

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • I think our product as we have mentioned in the previous call, -- one of the big things about our product, a big advantage of our product is that you can use the same solution or same information set for security, as well as performance application for voiceover-IP as well as data. And so yes, I think these are our footprint and the customer (inaudible) perhaps results in some of these repeat orders. But overall we don't have any one specific area, focus area. In storage, it is too early to tell. We have a storage product, but that has not gained traction yet.

  • Ghandi Rutless - Analyst

  • Okay. In terms of pricing environment, both at the end of the quarter and during the quarter, are you seeing any changes?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • No. Price competition is not characteristic of our business, that is head-to-head competition with other vendors on price. We have implemented a minor price increase that is still in the process of working its way through our quote system with no visible pushback from the market. So there are other factors going on in terms of new programs that are rolling out that affect our level of discounting. But they are principally transitory effects, and in general the answer is no increase of price pressure.

  • Operator

  • Kimberly Caughey, Sagient Research.

  • Kimberly Caughey - Analyst

  • A follow-up on the pricing. Did you guys change the increase of pricing for maintenance?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Yes, implicitly because our maintenance is priced as a percentage off of list price.

  • Kimberly Caughey - Analyst

  • But you did not say go from 15 to 20 percent or anything like that?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • No. No.

  • Kimberly Caughey - Analyst

  • Okay. Getting back to your -- because you say the weakness word and we just have to grab onto it like dogs or something and just beat it to death. Could it be that there was some weakness because you did implement some change in the channel, and don't you address Europe through the channel mainly?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • We do address Europe almost exclusively through the channel, although our direct sales force goes in, as is true everywhere with the channel, alongside the channel into the end users office. But yes, it is almost exclusively channel fulfilled. I would not say that our new programs had anything to do with weakness in Europe. It really was a cyclical issue. It appears that the European sales force with significant business in the pipeline just did not close it in June, and we don't expect that to occur going forward.

  • Kimberly Caughey - Analyst

  • Okay and it is why we publicize that the whole software sector seemingly hit a pothole. You guys certainly performed well in the quarter. Did you see any of the weakness at the end of the quarter, people backing out of deals, anything like that and you were just ahead of the game?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • We did not really see any weakness. No. You know the end of the quarter is always interesting. But ours was not anymore interesting from a marketplace point of view this quarter than it has been in the past, so we did not see some of the weakness that others have talked about.

  • In fact, this first-quarter performance was the best first-quarter performance we have had in about four years ago.

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • I think another thing is that we are not like a traditional software company. We are like a software company plus a networking type company. So whatever was for the reason for that may not have been applicable completely to our business.

  • Kimberly Caughey - Analyst

  • Got you. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Justin Martos (ph), Graham Partners.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • Yes, the large deals, one sounds like it is in government. Were all the three other ones in the Financial Services?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • No. Two were Financial Services, one was Telecom.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • And with the Air Force contract, which you won this past quarter, what is the potential over the next year to going into other regions within the Air Force? Is there a launch of a sales cycle, or are you (inaudible) there? Can you just talk about that a little bit?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Do you mean other areas of the Air Force?

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • Yes, since you are only in the CENTCOM area right now.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • I think there is potential for that. I cannot tell you that we have specific opportunities teed up, but clearly we are focused on that. We are adding resources. Anil mentioned we have been doing that. We continue to shift resources toward the federal government, both defense and civilian sides, and so we expect to see increased success there over time. It is a long sales cycle as you said.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • And the government, is that through the direct or resell?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Almost all of our government business, virtually all our government business is through the large federal integrators, so it is all resell.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • Okay and I jumped off for a second. In Europe if there was any deal slippage (inaudible) this quarter, did you close those deals at the beginning of this quarter?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • No. It was not really -- what happened in Europe was not really last-minute deal slippage. It just was a sort of trough in the cycle of our European business. So it is not a secular decline. It is sometimes all the molecules that are supposed to be working randomly all move in the same direction at the same time, and that is what happened in Europe.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • Finally on your guidance, regarding the the earlier question about the large deals are you placing in the guidance, are you saying that for your guidance you do not necessarily need at least four --?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • That is correct.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • Four large deals that you feel your pipeline is good enough that you need a couple like usual, but that is not it?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Right. Our forecast on which our guidance is based includes deal by deal analysis and the likelihood of deals closing and does not rely on any particular number of very large deals.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • And that also seems I guess for this quarter when you gave out the guidance that you had expected to close some of this large Air Force deals and those other three to make your current numbers, or was there some shifting within that?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • We had those in view at the beginning of the prior quarter, yes.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • So this quarter really went just like clockwork as you stand looking back?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Well, that is the way it worked out. They are always challenging as you are going through them. You know, nothing is perfectly smooth, but this one worked out pretty well.

  • Operator

  • Jeffery Myers, Intrepid Capital.

  • Jeffery Myers - Analyst

  • I guess the tax rate worked out to be about 40 percent this quarter. How should we look at that going forward?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • That should be pretty representative of our tax rate going forward. You know the tax rate -- we do our tax rate on an annual basis, and as long as we can continue on our planned path, that should be pretty consistent.

  • Jeffery Myers - Analyst

  • Okay. You talked about adding headcount. What areas specifically are you looking to add headcount in?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Well, there are two principal areas of headcount additions. One is in sales where we expect to add another seven or so direct sales people to the current total. And the other is in our infrastructure area, where we have added and may add another few people to help deal with Sarbanes-Oxley and other requirements.

  • Jeffery Myers - Analyst

  • Okay. And just taking a longer-term view, where do you guys think you can get your operating margin to, and either when do you see that happening or under what revenue levels would you see that happening?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • We expect that we will be able to hit our operating margin targets which remain in the high-teens by the time we hit the high 20s or $30 million of quarterly revenue. So that is our anticipation.

  • Jeffery Myers - Analyst

  • So you guys should get there next quarter?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Nice try.

  • Operator

  • Richard Sherman, Janney Montgomery Scott.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • David, you mentioned seven direct sales people to be hired. Can you give us some expected timeframe for that?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Hiring always takes longer than you think, longer than you like. We are actively hiring now for them, and it would be our desire to have as many onboard as quickly as we can to take advantage of the opportunity we see. But hiring always takes longer than you want, and I will tell you that the marketplace, the employment marketplace is changing and getting a little tighter. It is starting from a pretty low level, but as we are hiring, other people are also. So it may be a little tougher to fill those seats than we would like.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • We are pretty selective. We try to be pretty selective.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Well is it sort of a six month, twelve month, two year -- I would think it is something in the neighborhood of the next couple of quarters?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Do you mean to get them onboard?

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Oh certainly. If it is longer than that, we will be very surprised.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • And then in the press release and I think in your comment in the opening remarks here were a little bit different in terms of the number of existing customers that contributed. I think one said 267. The other one said 288 I think it was. Can you sort of help rectify that?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Yes. Is that a problem here? Hold on while we scramble and look at the data. (multiple speakers). Well, it looks like we got a little data problem that we are going to have to fix.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • We will just follow up with you afterwards if you would like.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • It is 267. Can you hold one second? The 288 number in the press release is total purchases not just repeat, so that is an error.

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • 288 is new plus repeat.

  • Richard Sherman - Analyst

  • Okay. Got you. Very good. Thank you.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Thanks for catching our error.

  • Operator

  • Katherine Egbert, Jefferies.

  • Katherine Egbert - Analyst

  • I was wondering what your increased focus on your channel sales do to your visibility into your pipeline?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • I'm sorry. Can you repeat that question?

  • Katherine Egbert - Analyst

  • I'm sorry. Let me try it again. What your increased focus on your channel sales and indirect sales does to your visibility in your pipeline?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • What it does to the visibility. Well, it does not do too much damage to it. We expect -- I mean in the sense that we know pretty much what our -- we work closely with our channel partners and know pretty much what business that we should expect through them. That is it tends to be a little less true in the Far East, particularly in China where sometimes we are dealing with multiple tiers of channel. But in general we expect it to be a positive in that we will see more opportunities with our channel partners than without them. But we don't expect to impact our visibility because of the way we work with them.

  • Katherine Egbert - Analyst

  • I was thinking more they would be positive. Are you acquiring them to register deals?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Yes, we do. We register deals with them. Yes, we do.

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • I think (inaudible) based on a large number of repeat customers and the rest are for these new customers. Since it is dominated by repeat customers, it is less affected by the channel. So because part of our business is increasing penetration in existing accounts, and that is at least in the U.S. it is not really affected by channel. So every channel has a positive impact, but we have (inaudible) salesforce, and that is having a bigger impact on the visibility part of the next quarter.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Did we answer your question?

  • Katherine Egbert - Analyst

  • Yes, that helped. Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Justin Martos, Graham Partners.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • A follow-up on the profitability question and the margin. When you look at the current shape of the business, what you guys are doing $20 million a quarter, to get to that $26, $28, $30 million, are you going to need eight large million-dollar deals a quarter, or when you think about just (inaudible) I am just asking you how? I'm not asking you if it's next year. I just want to ask you how do you see a $26 million quarter coming together? Do you need those $1 million, $2 million deals and a lot of them?

  • Anil Singhal - President & CEO

  • I think we have many million-dollar deals as we can get will certainly help, but that is not the number one reason I think we will do that. It will be more follow-on business with customers who are in 100,000 to 200,000 range moving to 400 or 500 range and having more of those, and then using the channel to find new customers who will result in follow-on business in the quarter because our product is thereby (inaudible) on day one and they continue to buy over the year. The first sale is actually quite small. And so given that more of the business will be in the under 1 million range to (inaudible) rather than dependent on million-dollar deals.

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • Can you talk a little bit more about that sort of conversion rate of $100,000 to $200,000 deals to the 400 and 500 deals if you're seeing any momentum there or if it is sort of pretty constant right now? Because doing the math, I would say that quarter-over-quarter it was basically up maybe basically flat quarter-over-quarter.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • I'm sorry. What was flat?

  • Justin Martos - Analyst

  • Basically the number of deals or conversions that you took from 100,000 maybe two quarters ago, and now you're doing 400,000 you know were basically sort of flattish, those number of deals because you had such a large number of million-dollar plus deals. I want to understand how you're seeing the momentum in that conversion rate if that's going to be the engine growing you to the next level?

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Well, we are seeing -- we don't measure our model of conversion rate from initial deal sizes to second and third and fourth deals specifically. What we do look at is existing customers and their total investment with us, and we look at converting customers from the initial stage that Anil talked about of initial pilot implementation. Then sometime later, maybe nine months, maybe a year or more later, typically a significant expansion into the $300,000 or $400,000 or $500,000 range. Then subsequent to that, perhaps nine months or a year later, larger deal for large enterprise customers. But it is not a statistically relevant sample size. We have a handful of million-dollar deals and a double or triple handful of $500,000 plus deals. So it is really not a statistically relevant thing to model we believe.

  • But we are seeing as you said deal sizes grow, right? On the average and we're seeing more large deals, which is indicative of the fact that the conversion that you talk about is happening. We think that is a very positive sign for us. As Anil said, our business is really driven principally off of the expansion of existing customer relationships. But that typically takes more than a couple of quarters.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). We have no more questions in queue. Please continue.

  • David Sommers - CFO

  • Okay, well, thank you very much all for coming. We appreciate your questions, and we will look forward to seeing you on our next conference call at the end of our next quarter. Thank you and good-bye.

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