Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Norfolk Southern Corporation first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Also note that this call is being recorded on Friday, April 24, 2026. And I would like to turn the conference over to Luke Nichols. Please go ahead, sir.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加諾福克南方公司（Norfolk Southern Corporation）2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 另外請注意，本通話將於 2026 年 4 月 24 日（週五）錄音。現在我想把會議交給 Luke Nichols。先生，請開始。

Good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or future performance of Norfolk Southern Corporation, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results.

各位早安。請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將依據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》（Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995）之安全港條款，作出若干前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及諾福克南方公司未來事件或未來績效，存在風險與不確定性，實際結果可能與陳述內容有重大差異。

Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full discussion of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important. Our presentation slides are available at norfolksouthern.com in the Investors section, along with our reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures, including adjusted or non-GAAP operating ratio.

關於我們認為最重要之風險與不確定性的完整討論，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的年度與季度報告。我們的簡報投影片可於 norfolksouthern.com 的「投資人」專區取得；同時也提供今日所使用之任何非 GAAP 指標與可比 GAAP 指標的調節表，包括調整後或非 GAAP 的營運比率。

Please note that all references to our prospective operating ratio during today's call are being provided on an adjusted basis. Turning to slide 3. I'll now turn the call over to Norfolk Southern's President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark George.

請注意，今日電話會議中所有對未來營運比率的提及，均以調整後基礎提供。請翻到投影片第 3 頁。現在我把電話交給諾福克南方總裁暨執行長 Mark George。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. With me today are John Orr, our Chief Operating Officer; Ed Elkins, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Jason Zampi, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get into details, I wanted to start by recognizing our Thoroughbred team.

各位早安，感謝各位加入。今天與我一同出席的有：營運長 John Orr、商務長 Ed Elkins，以及財務長 Jason Zampi。在進入細節之前，我想先表揚我們的 Thoroughbred 團隊。

Working together, we successfully navigated another challenging winter with weather events that affected most of our territory, putting real pressure on the network and our volumes in the month of February. But as conditions normalized and our network recovered, we were able to capture the available volume in March and exited the quarter with solid momentum, all while staying focused on what matters most, operating the railroad safely.

透過共同合作，我們成功度過了又一個充滿挑戰的冬季；多起天候事件影響了我們大部分營運區域，並在 2 月對路網與運量造成實質壓力。但隨著狀況恢復正常、路網復原，我們在 3 月得以掌握可取得的運量，並以穩健動能結束本季；同時我們始終聚焦於最重要的事——安全地營運鐵路。

Our safety performance continues to excel, which remains our most important work. We're seeing the benefits of the investments we've made in technology, training and standard processes from digital inspection tools to more rigorous operating standards. These efforts are helping us detect and address potential issues earlier and keep our employees, customers and communities we serve safe.

我們的安全表現持續出色，而這仍是我們最重要的工作。我們正看到先前在科技、訓練與標準化流程上的投資所帶來的效益，從數位檢測工具到更嚴謹的營運標準。這些努力協助我們更早偵測並處理潛在問題，並確保員工、客戶以及我們服務的社區安全。

Our FRA reportable accident rate is down yet again, thanks to the systems we have and our leadership. I'm proud of how our people stay disciplined and committed through all the weather challenges and other distractions.

在我們既有系統與領導力的支持下，我們的 FRA 可通報事故率再次下降。我為同仁在各種天候挑戰與其他干擾下，仍能保持紀律並堅定投入而感到自豪。

On costs, we remained disciplined. Total adjusted expenses were up just 1% year-over-year despite inflationary pressures, storm costs and sharply higher fuel prices. We earn new business, expanded key relationships and saw customer confidence grow across multiple sectors, reflecting improved execution and trust in our capabilities.

在成本方面，我們維持紀律。儘管面臨通膨壓力、風暴相關成本以及燃料價格大幅上升，調整後總費用年增僅 1%。我們贏得新業務、擴大關鍵合作關係，並看到多個產業的客戶信心提升，反映出執行力改善以及對我們能力的信任。

We're seeing strength and encouraging results across multiple parts of the business, reflecting focused investments and improved coordination across our teams. Ed will walk through some of our wins and the underlying volume drivers in more detail.

我們在業務的多個面向都看到強勁表現與令人鼓舞的成果，反映出聚焦投資以及團隊間協作的提升。Ed 將更詳細說明我們的一些勝利案例與背後的運量驅動因素。

Lastly, stepping back to the broader environment, the macro remains a mix of puts and takes. Customers continue to manage dynamic and shifting supply chains. But our message is simple. Norfolk Southern is well positioned to grow alongside of them. The strength of our network combined with the flexibility we built into our cost structure gives us confidence to navigate whatever the market brings.And with that, I'll turn it over to John to get into the operational details. John?

最後，回到更廣泛的外部環境，總體面仍是利多與利空交錯。客戶持續管理動態且不斷變化的供應鏈。但我們的訊息很簡單。諾福克南方已做好準備，能與客戶一同成長。我們路網的優勢，加上我們在成本結構中建立的彈性，使我們有信心因應市場帶來的任何變化。接下來我把時間交給 John，請他說明營運細節。John？

Good morning, everyone, and thanks, Mark. Throughout 2025, our Norfolk Southern team was focused on growing our team's capabilities, skills and speak up willingness, creating the environment to deeply embed our safety and service maturity and capabilities.

各位早安，謝謝你，Mark。在 2025 年期間，我們諾福克南方團隊專注於提升團隊能力、技能與願意發聲（speak up）的意願，打造能深度內化我們安全與服務成熟度及能力的環境。

Now for the full quarter behind us in 2026, we are realizing measurable gains from those successive efforts. We are advancing and layering progressive PSR 2.0 structural changes to build more resilience and efficiencies across the railway, develop generational railway leaders and provide our customers with the best possible service plan.

而在 2026 年第一季完整季度結束後，我們正從這些持續努力中看到可衡量的進展。我們正推進並逐步疊加更進階的 PSR 2.0 結構性變革，以在全鐵路系統建立更高韌性與效率、培育跨世代的鐵路領導人才，並為客戶提供最佳的服務規劃。

As Mark noted, extreme and network-wide winter weather in the first quarter tested the network. I'm very proud of the entire enterprise in the way we anticipated, prepared and responded to deliver for our customers. The extraordinary commitment of more than 19,000 rail orders across our franchise was clear in the service and volume execution coming out of the system-wide storms.

如 Mark 所提，第一季極端且影響全路網的冬季天候考驗了系統。我為整個企業在預判、準備與回應方面的表現感到非常自豪，並因此得以為客戶交付成果。在系統性風暴過後，來自我們營運版圖中超過 19,000 名鐵路同仁的非凡投入，清楚反映在服務與運量的執行表現上。

Thank you to all my fellow rail orders. The entire team delivered both daily and storm backlog demand and drove post-pandemic daily GTM volume records, made possible by our operations and commercial teams.

感謝我所有鐵路同仁。整個團隊同時滿足日常需求與風暴造成的積壓需求，並創下疫情後每日 GTM 運量紀錄；這要歸功於我們的營運與商務團隊。

Turning to slide 5. At Norfolk Southern, Safety is the core value to which all of our operating decisions are made. Our continued investment in safety is producing results while building a stronger, more durable safety culture. In the quarter, our FRA personal injury ratio was 1.10.

請翻到投影片第 5 頁。在諾福克南方，安全是所有營運決策的核心價值。我們持續投資安全，正在產生成果，同時建立更強健、更具韌性的安全文化。本季我們的 FRA 人身傷害比率為 1.10。

This is consistent with full year 2025 performance. Our FRA accident ratio was 1.43. This reflects a 37% improvement year-over-year in the first quarter. Our FRA mainline accident ratio was 0.26. For the second consecutive year, Norfolk Southern continues to lead the way for Class I railroads in mainline incident reliability. This progress is not isolated, it is also mirrored in a reduction of non-FRA reportable accidents.

這與 2025 年全年表現一致。我們的 FRA 事故比率為 1.43，反映第一季年對年改善 37%。我們的 FRA 主線事故比率為 0.26。連續第二年，諾福克南方在主線事件可靠性方面持續領先一級鐵路（Class I railroads）。這項進展並非孤立，也同樣反映在非 FRA 可通報事故的減少上。

These improvements reflect the strategic impact of our intentional coordination of field-level technology coupled with execution across back office, work scope process refinement and field conversion engagement. Combined, we are creating reliable network value by engineering out risk from operations wherever our teams work.

這些改善反映出我們有意識地協調現場層級科技導入，並結合後勤辦公室的執行、工作範疇流程精進，以及現場轉換推動與參與所帶來的策略性影響。綜合而言，我們正透過在各作業環節中以工程化方式排除風險，來創造可靠的路網價值。

This holistic approach to safety improvement is now embedded in how we plan, execute and manage the railway every day. While we are all proud and encouraged by our safety improvements, we are driven by a relentless drive for continuous improvement. Our enterprise is committed to putting in the work. We know there's more work to do. We are strengthening our stop work authority, reinforcing a speak-up culture and relentlessly addressing root cause analysis to prevent block crossing and other incidents.

這種全方位的安全改善方法，已內嵌於我們每日規劃、執行與管理鐵路的方式之中。雖然我們都為安全改善感到自豪並受到鼓舞，但我們仍以持續改善的強烈驅動力前進。我們的企業承諾投入必要的工作。我們知道還有更多工作要做。我們正強化停工權（stop work authority）、鞏固鼓勵發聲的文化，並持續徹底進行根因分析，以預防平交道阻塞（block crossing）及其他事件。

Turning to slide 6. Throughout the first quarter, the network demonstrated resilience in the variable demand environment we faced. Our focus remains on improving our train speed while maintaining balanced discipline around energy management and service levels, a core operational priority.

請翻到投影片第 6 頁。在第一季期間，面對我們所處的需求波動環境，路網展現出韌性。我們仍聚焦於提升列車速度，同時在能源管理與服務水準上維持均衡且嚴謹的紀律，這是核心營運優先事項。

While shipments were modestly lower year-over-year, we moved 1.1% more gross ton miles, reflecting stronger train productivity and better asset utilization across the network. Terminals well improved year-over-year, coupled with continuous focus on execution of the plan.

雖然出貨量年對年略有下降，但我們的總噸英里（gross ton miles）增加 1.1%，反映列車生產力更強，以及全路網資產利用率更佳。終端場站表現年對年改善，並持續聚焦於計畫執行。

This supports gains in car miles per day. We have been intentional about protecting service and operating the network at a lower cost structure. That discipline is reflected in an 8.6% fewer recrews, improved locomotive reliability and continued reductions in unscheduled train stops.

這支持每日車輛英里數的成長。我們一直有意識地保護服務水準，並以較低的成本結構來營運網路。這種紀律反映在重派人員（recrew）次數減少8.6%、機車可靠性提升，以及非計畫性列車停靠持續下降。

Improved crew scheduling and greater crew availability are supporting stronger crew productivity across the network and the better aligned, qualified T&E crew base, which is down about 6% year-over-year. And we continue to strategically recruit and renew our workforce in markets where we anticipate growth.

更佳的乘務排班與更高的乘務可用性，正支撐全網更強的乘務生產力；同時，更加對齊且具資格的列車與引擎（T&E）乘務基礎人力年增率約下降6%。此外，我們也持續在預期成長的市場中，策略性招募並更新我們的勞動力。

Reliability drives improved productivity in cruise, locomotive and fuel efficiency. Taken together, these results demonstrate we are controlling what we can control, managing costs, improving efficiencies and positioning the network to respond to the evolving market conditions.

可靠性帶動巡航、機車與燃油效率的生產力提升。綜合而言，這些成果顯示我們正在掌控可控事項、管理成本、提升效率，並讓網路具備回應不斷演變之市場環境的能力。

Turning to slide 7. At the core of PSR 2.0 is a self-reinforcing operating system, a flywheel where disciplined execution compounds over time. At Norfolk Southern, we know when we run the plan, reduce recrews and improve network velocity, we create stability in the operation. Stability matters to our people and to our customers.

接著看第7頁投影片。PSR 2.0 的核心是一套自我強化的營運系統，如同飛輪一般，紀律性的執行會隨時間累積放大成效。在諾福克南方（Norfolk Southern），我們知道當我們依計畫運行、降低重派人員並提升網路速度時，就能在營運上創造穩定性。穩定性對我們的員工與客戶都很重要。

It allows us to deliver our service and utilize assets more effectively, improve locomotive and field productivity and operate with better energy efficiencies. Operational gains have manifested into the continued evolution of our service plan and its execution. They feed directly back into better schedules, better planning and more consistent execution.

這讓我們能交付服務並更有效地運用資產、提升機車與現場生產力，並以更佳的能源效率營運。營運上的進步已體現在我們服務計畫的持續演進及其執行上。這些進步會直接回饋到更好的班表、更好的規劃與更一致的執行。

We now have a connected system where every improvement strengthens the next. That compounding effect is how we intentionally build a more resilient railroad steadily over time. Our war rooms continue to translate this discipline into measurable results. The mechanical room has improved detection quality in our wheel integrity systems while delivering confirmed defect identification that directly improve safety and reliability.

我們現在擁有一個相互連結的系統，每一項改善都會強化下一項改善。這種複利效應，正是我們有意識地、隨時間穩健打造更具韌性鐵路的方式。我們的戰情室（war rooms）持續將這種紀律轉化為可衡量的成果。機械戰情室提升了輪對完整性系統的偵測品質，同時提供已確認的缺陷辨識，直接提升安全與可靠性。

This is a clear example of technology process and field execution working together at scale. At the same time, our need for speed war room is embedding advanced analytics directly into daily operating decision-making. By pairing data science with frontline execution, we are improving plan quality, accelerating decisions and strengthening the performance across our network.

這清楚展現科技流程與現場執行如何在規模化下協同運作。同時，我們的「速度需求」戰情室正把進階分析直接嵌入每日營運決策。透過將資料科學與第一線執行結合，我們正在提升計畫品質、加速決策，並強化全網績效。

Disciplined execution across the organization is delivering results. In the first quarter, we achieved a fuel efficiency record, strengthening our competitive position in a high fuel price environment while protecting margins. More importantly, it reflects the repeatability of this operating system.

全組織的紀律性執行正在帶來成果。第一季我們創下燃油效率紀錄，在高油價環境下強化競爭地位，同時守住利潤率。更重要的是，這反映出這套營運系統具備可重複性。

Taken together, our PSR 2.0 transformation and operating systems position us to continue to outperform our original cost reduction commitments and deliver sustained progress across safety, service and financial performance. With that, I'll turn it to you, Ed.

綜合而言，我們的 PSR 2.0 轉型與營運系統，使我們得以持續優於原先的成本削減承諾，並在安全、服務與財務表現上交付可持續的進展。接下來我把時間交給你，Ed。

Thanks a lot, John, and good morning, everybody. Let's move to slide 9. We closed out the first quarter with significant volume momentum, and this is offsetting a volatile February where severe winter weather impacted our customer car loadings for several weeks.

非常感謝，John，各位早安。我們看第9頁投影片。第一季結束時，我們的運量動能顯著；這抵銷了2月的波動，當時嚴重冬季天候連續數週影響了客戶裝車量。

Overall, volume finished down 1%, primarily due to challenging intermodal market conditions as well as merger-related losses. However, revenue ended the quarter flat year-over-year and RPU was up 2%, with solid core merchandise pricing and some favorable high-level mix, which were somewhat overshadowed by some puts and takes within the individual business groups, particularly within coal.

整體而言，運量下降1%，主要因為聯運市場環境具挑戰性，以及併購相關的流失。不過，營收與去年同期持平，RPU（每單位收入）上升2%；核心商品業務定價穩健，加上部分較有利的高層級組合，惟各事業群內部仍有一些增減因素相互抵銷，尤其是在煤炭業務。

Within merchandise, volume and revenue increased 1% from a year ago, and this was driven by continued share gains in our chemicals and our automotive markets. RPU less fuel was flat year-over-year within the segment as strong core pricing was offset by mix interactions due to sustained growth of lower-rated commodities within our chemicals franchise that we've talked about for a couple of quarters now.

在商品（merchandise）業務方面，運量與營收較去年增加1%，主要由我們在化學品與汽車市場持續提升市占所帶動。該分部的 RPU（扣除燃油）與去年持平；強勁的核心定價被組合效應所抵銷，原因是我們在化學品業務中較低費率商品持續成長——這點我們已談了好幾季。

In our intermodal business, volumes decreased 4%, reflecting difficult comparisons related to tariff front-running in 2025 as well as impacts from the winter storms in the quarter and ongoing merger-related losses from prior quarters. Overall, intermodal revenue declined 1% and revenue less fuel decreased 2% due to these volume impacts while improved pricing and positive mix within the segment drove ARPU higher by 3% and RPU less fuel higher by 2%.

在聯運業務方面，運量下降4%，反映出與2025年因關稅提前出貨（tariff front-running）所造成的高基期比較不利，以及本季冬季風暴的影響，並延續前幾季併購相關的流失。整體而言，聯運營收下降1%，扣除燃油的營收下降2%，主要受運量影響；同時，較佳的定價與分部內正向組合帶動 ARPU（每單位平均收入）上升3%，RPU（扣除燃油）上升2%。

Looking at coal, volume increased substantially as higher electricity demand, stockpile replenishment and a supportive regulatory environment powered our utility segment. Now this strength was partially offset by reduced volume in domestic met coal. And so while total coal volume increased 9%, revenue declined 2% as mix headwinds from utility growth and continued overhang of export pricing drove ARPU down by 9%.

在煤炭方面，運量大幅增加；更高的用電需求、庫存回補以及有利的監管環境，推動了我們的公用事業分部。不過，這股強勁動能部分被國內冶金煤運量下滑所抵銷。因此，雖然煤炭總運量增加9%，營收卻下降2%；公用事業成長帶來的組合逆風，以及出口定價持續承壓，使 ARPU 下降9%。

Let's go to slide 10. Here, we highlight several dynamic factors influencing our market outlook, including the conflict in Iran, which has obviously driven energy prices sharply upward in the near term. Our fuel surcharge revenue will be the most immediate impact as an offset to fuel expense.

我們看第10頁投影片。在此我們強調幾項影響市場展望的動態因素，包括伊朗衝突；顯然這在短期內推升能源價格大幅上漲。燃油附加費收入將是最即時的影響，用以抵銷燃油費用。

And additionally, we're aggressively pursuing volume and revenue opportunities in a variety of energy-related markets while also monitoring potential impacts to overall consumer demand. Looking at merchandise, we have a subdued, but positive outlook for vehicle production due to near-term economic uncertainty on the part of consumers.

此外，我們也正積極在多個能源相關市場中尋求運量與營收機會，同時監測對整體消費需求的潛在影響。就商品業務而言，由於消費者對短期經濟不確定性有所顧慮，我們對車輛生產的展望偏保守但仍為正向。

Manufacturing activity remains mixed with output forecasted to expand modestly amid the shifting economic landscape. Energy prices and global supply chains will be significant wildcards in the months ahead due to the conflict in Iran. And depending on the duration of supply chain disruptions, we could see near-term opportunities in markets like natural gas liquids, export plastics and potentially even crude oil.

製造業活動仍呈現分歧；在經濟格局變動之下，預期產出將溫和擴張。由於伊朗衝突，能源價格與全球供應鏈將是未來數月的重要變數。並且，視供應鏈中斷持續時間而定，我們可能在天然氣液（NGL）、出口塑膠，甚至可能是原油等市場看到短期機會。

Looking to our intermodal markets. International volumes are going to remain soft due to continued tariff volatility and trade pressures. On the other hand, retailers have been maintaining lean inventories in response to this macro uncertainty for which a visual restocking offers some support from baseline freight activity.

再看我們的聯運市場。由於關稅持續波動與貿易壓力，國際運量將維持疲弱。另一方面，零售商因應總體不確定性而維持精實庫存；一旦出現明顯補庫，將對基礎貨運活動形成一定支撐。

The truck market has turned relatively positive with dry van rates trending upward in the first quarter of '26 and capacity continues to rightsize while demand is firming. Taken together, we have an optimistic view of intermodal, although we're tempering that optimism somewhat due to increased competitor activity following the merger announcement.

卡車市場已轉為相對正向：在2026年第一季，乾貨廂式（dry van）運價呈上行趨勢，運能持續調整至更合理水準，而需求正在回溫。綜合而言，我們對聯運抱持樂觀，但也因併購公告後競爭對手活動增加，而對這份樂觀稍作保留。

Let's turn to coal, where a combination of global factors is supporting pricing across both metallurgical and thermal seaborne markets. Now most notably, the conflict in Iran is impacting global LNG supply chains, opening the global market to consider alternatives such as US sourced thermal coal. The Utility outlook remains positive as growing domestic electricity demand and inventory restocking should continue to support Norfolk Southern coal volumes. Okay.

接著看煤炭：多項全球因素正支撐冶金煤與動力煤海運市場的定價。尤其是伊朗衝突正在影響全球 LNG 供應鏈，使全球市場開始考慮替代方案，例如美國來源的動力煤。公用事業展望仍為正向；國內用電需求成長與庫存回補，應會持續支撐諾福克南方的煤炭運量。好的。

Let's move to slide 11, where I'm excited to introduce an innovative new short line and transload partnership, which is subject to standard regulatory approval with Jaguar Transport Holdings. Unlike traditional short-line transactions across the industry, which have been focused on finding efficiencies and leveraging lower density lines, our new partnership focuses on growth in a high-density switching corridor located in Doraville, Georgia.

我們看第11頁投影片；我很高興介紹一項創新的新短線鐵路與轉運（transload）合作夥伴關係，對象是 Jaguar Transport Holdings，並須取得一般性的監管核准。不同於業界傳統的短線交易多著重於提升效率與運用較低密度路線，我們的新合作聚焦於成長，地點位於喬治亞州多拉維爾（Doraville）的一條高密度調車走廊。

Our new partnership, which includes operation of both an industrial short line and our transload terminal, will deliver exceptional local service and responsive capacity to customers in the growing Metro Atlanta market. Now here's what I want everyone to take away. This new partnership is just the latest example of our larger growth strategy in action.

我們的新合作夥伴關係（包含營運一條工業短線鐵路以及我們的轉運終端）將在成長中的亞特蘭大都會市場，為客戶提供卓越的在地服務與具回應性的運能。現在我希望大家帶走的重點是：這項新合作夥伴關係只是我們更大成長策略落地執行的最新例證。

We're focused on building and executing innovative deal structures that deliver new capabilities and exceptional value for our customers. Look for more innovative solutions and new capabilities in the months ahead as we continue to execute on our strategy for growth. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Jason Zampi to review our financial results.

我們專注於打造並執行創新的交易架構，為客戶帶來新能力與卓越價值。隨著我們持續推進成長策略，未來幾個月請期待更多創新解決方案與新能力。接下來，我把時間交給 Jason Zampi，請他回顧我們的財務結果。

Thanks, Ed. I'll start with a reconciliation of our GAAP results to the adjusted numbers that I'll speak to today on slide 13. We incurred $52 million in merger-related expenses during the quarter, while total costs related to the Eastern Ohio incident were $10 million. Adjusting for these items, the operating ratio for the quarter was 68.7% and EPS was $2.65 per share.

謝謝你，Ed。我先從第 13 頁投影片開始，說明我們 GAAP 結果與我今天將討論的調整後數字之間的調節。本季我們發生了 5,200 萬美元的併購相關費用，而與東俄亥俄事件相關的總成本為 1,000 萬美元。剔除這些項目後，本季營運比率為 68.7%，每股盈餘（EPS）為每股 2.65 美元。

Moving to slide 14, you'll find the comparison of our adjusted results versus last year. From a year-over-year perspective, the operating ratio increased 80 basis points. Inflation and fuel price headwinds drove an approximate 280-basis-point increase.

接著看第 14 頁投影片，您會看到我們調整後結果與去年同期的比較。以年對年角度來看，營運比率上升了 80 個基點。通膨與燃油價格逆風推動營運比率約增加 280 個基點。

However, we were able to mitigate a large part of that increase through productivity and higher revenue per unit. Taking a closer look at our quarter on slide 15, overall costs were up 1% as we were able to offset an estimated 5% headwind from inflationary pressures.

不過，我們透過生產力提升與單位收入提高，得以抵銷其中很大一部分增幅。在第 15 頁投影片更仔細看本季表現，整體成本僅上升 1%，因為我們成功抵銷了估計約 5% 的通膨壓力逆風。

Specifically, fuel price alone was $31 million higher than last year and over $40 million higher than our expectations, a phenomenon that really accelerated in the later part of March and has continued here into the second quarter.

具體而言，僅燃油價格就比去年高出 3,100 萬美元，且比我們預期高出超過 4,000 萬美元；這種現象在 3 月下旬明顯加速，並延續到第二季。

We have continued to deliver on our productivity initiatives with fuel efficiency and labor productivity delivering over $30 million in savings. Partially offsetting those gains we had some volumetric increases that drove purchase services and rents higher in the quarter. So to summarize our financial results on slide 16, while first quarter costs were only up 1% and in line with our cost guidance for 2026, the lack of revenue growth combined to drive a modest EPS reduction.

我們持續推進生產力計畫，燃油效率與勞動生產力合計帶來超過 3,000 萬美元的節省。部分抵銷上述成果的是，本季部分運量增加推升了外購服務與租金成本。因此在第 16 頁投影片總結財務結果：雖然第一季成本僅上升 1%，並符合我們對 2026 年的成本指引，但營收未成長的情況疊加，導致 EPS 小幅下滑。

While we overcame typical operating ratio seasonality in Q1, we are constantly striving to improve. We continue to refine our focus to unearth other opportunities, and you heard John talk about some of those initiatives as we work towards the $150-plus million of efficiencies planned for this year on top of the over $500 million in productivity we generated over the last two years.

雖然我們在第一季克服了典型的營運比率季節性影響，但我們仍持續努力改善。我們持續精煉聚焦以發掘其他機會；您也聽到 John 談到其中一些措施。我們正朝今年規劃的 1.5 億美元以上效率提升邁進，這是在過去兩年已創造超過 5 億美元生產力的基礎之上。

Fuel is obviously going to be a wildcard for the remainder of the year, and we anticipate it to be a headwind in the second quarter. But despite that, we expect to achieve typical margin seasonality from 1Q to 2Q. We continue to move forward.

燃油顯然會是今年剩餘期間的一個不確定因素（wildcard），我們預期它在第二季將形成逆風。但即便如此，我們仍預期從第一季到第二季能呈現典型的利潤率季節性走勢。我們會持續向前推進。

John and team are continuing to drive productivity while maintaining a safe railroad with consistent and predictable service levels and Ed and his team are pursuing high-quality growth opportunities across the entire book. Overall, we're executing to the plan we laid out, focusing on safety and service within a reasonable cost outlook while progressing through our merger application with UP. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mark to wrap it up.

John 與團隊在維持安全鐵路營運、提供一致且可預期的服務水準之同時，持續推動生產力；而 Ed 與他的團隊則在整體業務組合中尋求高品質的成長機會。整體而言，我們正按既定計畫執行：在合理的成本展望下聚焦安全與服務，同時推進與 UP 的併購申請流程。接下來我把時間交給 Mark 做結語。

Okay. Thank you, Jason. You all just heard that we are laser-focused on three fundamentals, first, safety. We continue to make progress through better tools, better processes and a culture that treats safety as a value, not a metric. Second is service.

好的。謝謝你，Jason。各位剛剛聽到，我們高度聚焦三項基本面：第一，安全。我們透過更好的工具、更好的流程，以及把安全視為價值而非指標的文化，持續取得進展。第二是服務。

Our customers are seeing our resilience coming out of the winter weather and getting back to consistent, reliable performance even as volumes increase. And third, costs. We're maintaining tight control, driving productivity and aligning our expense base with demand as we fight to win volume. Overall, we see a promising story emerging where we can leverage any reasonable volume expansion the market presents with our commitment to control costs, giving us confidence in our ability to drive attractive and profitable growth.

我們的客戶看到我們在冬季天候之後展現的韌性，並在運量增加之際，回到一致、可靠的表現。第三，成本。我們維持嚴格控管、推動生產力，並在爭取運量的同時，讓費用基礎與需求對齊。整體而言，我們看到一個令人振奮的故事正在成形：憑藉我們對成本控管的承諾，我們能把握市場提供的任何合理運量擴張，這讓我們對推動具吸引力且獲利的成長能力更有信心。

Now turning to guidance. Last quarter, we provided an adjusted operating cost envelope of $8.2 billion to $8.4 billion for 2026, and I'm proud of how the NS team has handled all the challenges in Q1 to remain on track for our guide, and I remain confident in our cost control playbook. Now while the underlying cost structure remains intact, fuel prices are obviously putting upward pressure on the cost outlook.

接著談指引。上季我們提供 2026 年調整後營運成本區間為 82 億至 84 億美元；我為 NS 團隊在第一季面對各項挑戰仍能維持在指引軌道上感到自豪，我也對我們的成本控管作戰手冊（playbook）保持信心。雖然基礎成本結構仍然穩固，但燃油價格顯然正在對成本展望造成上行壓力。

As you heard from Jason, the price surge in March alone resulted in expenses that were $40 million higher than our expectations. While we are sensitive to the impact of conflict and inflating energy markets are having on people's lives, today, it is unclear on how long fuel prices will remain inflated and by how much over the remainder of the year.

如同 Jason 所提到，僅 3 月的價格飆升就使費用比我們預期高出 4,000 萬美元。雖然我們理解衝突與能源市場通膨對人們生活造成的影響，但就今天而言，燃油價格將在多長時間內維持高檔，以及今年剩餘期間會高出多少，仍不明朗。

In light of this, we are maintaining our current cost guidance while acknowledging the near-term volatility and uncertainty on one of our key cost inputs. Our team has worked hard to be transparent with all of you. We will continue to monitor the situation as we progress through Q2 and gain more confidence on where fuel will settle, and we will update you accordingly.

基於此，我們維持目前的成本指引，同時也承認在我們關鍵成本投入之一上，短期存在波動與不確定性。我們的團隊一直努力對各位保持透明。隨著我們進入第二季並對燃油價格可能落點更有把握，我們將持續監控情勢，並適時向各位更新。

And finally, just as a brief update on the merger, we remain on track to refile the application by the end of the month. This revised application will be even stronger in articulating the benefits of creating the nation's first single-line transcontinental railroad. And with that, let's open the call to questions.

最後，簡要更新併購進度：我們仍按計畫在月底前重新提交申請。這份修訂後的申請將更有力地闡述打造全美第一條單一線路橫貫大陸鐵路的效益。接下來，我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

Chris Wetherbee，富國銀行。

Maybe one point of clarification and then the question. I guess, Jason, you mentioned normal OR seasonality 1Q to 2Q. Just kind of curious what you see that normal seasonality as being just to clarify. And then Ed, you talked a little bit about competitive activity, I think, particularly in Intermodal as it relates to the merger.

也許先釐清一點，然後再提問。我想，Jason，你提到第一季到第二季正常的 OR 季節性。我有點好奇，你所說的正常季節性大概是什麼樣子，想請你再說明一下。另外 Ed，你談到一些競爭動態，我想特別是與併購相關的聯運（Intermodal）。

I guess as you think about that, have we seen most of that happen already? Is that something that maybe still has yet to play out? And is it more than intermodal? Or is it really more sort of contained within Intermodal?

我想問的是，從你的角度來看，我們是否已經看到大部分情況都已經發生了？還是說這可能仍有待後續發酵？而且這是否不只限於聯運？還是其實主要就侷限在聯運業務之內？

Chris, it's Jason. Let me start with the OR question. Just a reminder, first about some of the headwinds that we've got in our plan. We've talked about inflation and some of those year-over-year pressures in that 4% range. We've got lower land sales.

Chris，我是 Jason。我先回答 OR 的問題。先提醒一下，關於我們計畫中面臨的一些逆風。我們談過通膨，以及那些年對年的壓力，大約在 4% 的區間。我們還有較低的土地出售收入。

Specifically, you may recall, we had a $35 million land sale in the second quarter last year that we don't expect this year. We've got to absorb those revenue losses from the competitive merger responses. And now obviously, we have to deal with these fuel headwinds that are going to continue into the second quarter.

具體而言，你可能還記得，我們去年第二季有一筆3,500萬美元的土地出售收入，今年我們預期不會再有。我們必須吸收因應競爭性併購回應所造成的那些營收損失。而現在很明顯地，我們還得面對燃油方面的逆風，且這些逆風將延續到第二季。

So that said, you put all those together, all those headwinds, we're really still expecting to be in that normal kind of sequential OR improvement. We think about that at about 200 basis points, and that's really due to all the productivity initiatives that we've got going on.

因此，綜合以上所有因素、所有逆風，我們仍然預期營業比率（OR）會呈現正常的季對季改善。我們認為大約是改善200個基點，而這主要歸功於我們正在推動的各項生產力提升措施。

And an uptick in revenue from first quarter to second quarter.

以及營收從第一季到第二季的回升。

And this is Ed. To your second question there. Yes, it's really, we think primarily an intermodal story. And it's playing out the way that we've anticipated so far. And frankly, we're doing everything we can to make sure that we're earning everything we can from both the road and from other modes.

我是Ed。針對你的第二個問題。是的，我們認為主要是聯運（intermodal）的故事。而且到目前為止，它的發展與我們先前的預期一致。坦白說，我們正盡一切努力，確保我們能從公路以及其他運輸模式中，盡可能取得我們應得的收益。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Ed, I have a question. intermodal pricing is arguably somewhat cyclical tied to truck pricing. Coal pricing is volatile. It feels like merchandise pricing has been like the constant, and I see merchandise RPU ex fuel flat and so maybe you'll say it's mix, but just some thoughts I would have thought or hoped we'd see some better merchandise pricing?

Ed，我有個問題。聯運定價可以說在某種程度上具有循環性，並與卡車運價連動。煤炭定價波動很大。感覺一般貨運（merchandise）定價一直比較穩定，但我看到一般貨運的每單位收入（RPU）扣除燃油後持平，所以你可能會說是組合因素，但我想聽聽你的看法——我原本以為或希望能看到一般貨運定價更好一些？

And then Mark, just -- you mentioned quickly the merger, just applications coming next week, you've had months now to gather feedback. Anything that gives you more confidence in approval? Any feedback that gives you concern? Just any high-level thoughts.

然後Mark，另外——你剛快速提到併購案，下週就要提交申請了，你們已經有好幾個月蒐集回饋。有沒有什麼讓你對核准更有信心？有沒有任何回饋讓你感到擔憂？請分享一些高層次的想法。

Ed, why don't you go ahead.

Ed，你先說吧。

Sure. I'll probably disappoint you because I'm going to say it's mix. First of all, we've had a good quarter and a very strong track record on the core price here. RPU, of course, is not price. When we see our merchandise book, frankly, I think we're close to a record this quarter for RPU less fuel, it's really about growth in some of the lower-rated chemicals commodities, stuff like frac sand and NGLs, where we've done a really good job of earning new business there.

好的。我可能會讓你失望，因為我要說這是組合（mix）因素。首先，我們本季表現不錯，而且在核心定價方面一直有非常強的紀錄。當然，RPU並不等同於價格。就我們的一般貨運訂單簿來看，坦白說，我認為本季的RPU扣除燃油後接近創紀錄水準；主要原因是一些較低費率的化學品大宗商品成長，例如壓裂砂（frac sand）與天然氣液（NGLs），我們在那裡把新業務做得很好。

And at the same time, we continue to take price very aggressively where we can. And I would say that for the most part, I'm really satisfied with where we've landed on core price and adding incremental revenue through some of those low rated commodities has been a good thing for us.

同時，我們也持續在可行之處非常積極地調價。我會說，大致上我對我們核心定價的落點非常滿意，而透過這些低費率商品增加增量營收，對我們而言是件好事。

Yes. Thanks, Ed. And look, with regard to the merger, I think being out on the road and seeing how this has played out these past handful of months since we submitted the initial application, I'm feeling a lot better as we talk to customers and understand the concerns, as customers are listening to the opposition and some of the steer tactics, and we get a chance to clarify with facts, I believe we have a really good story.

是的。謝謝你，Ed。關於併購案，我認為這幾個月來自我們提交初始申請以後，我們在外奔走、觀察事情如何發展，當我們與客戶交流並理解他們的疑慮時，我的感受好了很多；客戶在聽取反對方以及一些引導性的手法之後，我們有機會用事實加以澄清，我相信我們的論述非常有力。

The new application is going to confirm what we said in the original application on the logic of doing this deal and the benefits that single-line transcontinental railroad will bring to the country and to our shippers. In fact, we're going to have a much stronger set of data that actually makes the case even stronger.

新的申請文件將會確認我們在原始申請中所說的：進行這筆交易的邏輯，以及單一線路的橫貫大陸鐵路將為國家與我們的託運人帶來的效益。事實上，我們將會有一套更強而有力的數據，使得論證更具說服力。

So we feel pretty good about it and I think, right now, it's just about trying to get on the clock and by getting that application in on the 30th, the clock will start running. So I feel better, Scott, than I did even five months ago when I felt really good.

所以我們對此感覺相當不錯，而我認為目前重點就是讓案子進入計時程序；在30日提交申請後，審查時程就會開始運作。所以Scott，我現在的感覺比五個月前更好——而當時我其實就已經覺得很有把握了。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

Maybe just to clarify with Jason, can you give us the fuel and weather-related costs into the quarter? I don't think we heard the specific call out here directly. And just Ed, maybe going back to the '26 market outlook, much of the different I guess, segments here moved a bit higher vehicle manufacturing warehouse in particular, truck makes sense, but maybe you can give a little bit more context as to what you're seeing and feeling in there that gives you the confidence to move those up a notch on your rating scale and maybe how that's expected to play out throughout the rest of the year?

也許先跟Jason確認一下，你能否提供本季燃油與天候相關成本的數字？我想我們沒有直接聽到明確的點名說明。另外Ed，回到你提到的「26年市場展望」，我想各個不同的——應該說各個細分領域——評等有些上調，尤其是車輛製造與倉儲；卡車相關的上調也合理，但你能否多提供一些背景，說明你在那裡看到、感受到什麼，讓你有信心把它們在評等量表上往上調一格？以及你預期這在今年剩餘時間會如何發展？

Brian, first part of your question. So thinking about fuel specifically, versus prior year was up $31 million just from price, but the really big impact that we're talking about is kind of that difference compared to what we expected. And just in the month of March alone, that was up over $40 million. So the price we paid per gallon in March was up 45% over last year, and we really see that same phenomenon kind of happening again here in April.

Brian，先回答你問題的第一部分。就燃油而言，相較去年同期，僅因價格因素就增加了3,100萬美元；但我們真正談到的更大影響，是相對於我們原先預期的差異。光是3月單月，這個差異就增加了超過4,000萬美元。我們3月每加侖支付的價格比去年高出45%，而我們也看到4月似乎又出現同樣的現象。

So kind of splitting that up between prior year and then what our expectation was. I'd tell you on storm costs. And John, you can give a little color on this, but that was about million to $15 million in the quarter of costs. And John, you give a little background on that.

所以可以把它拆成：相較去年同期的變化，以及相較我們原先預期的變化。至於風暴成本方面。John，你也可以補充一些細節，但本季大約是1,000萬到1,500萬美元的成本。John，你來補充一些背景。

Yes. Let's just go to fuel for a second because it's not just the price story, it's the consumption story, and we set a consumption record that is compounding its value in the fuel efficiency cost levers that we've been pulling through our precision fuel operations all of last year and this year.

好的。先談燃油，因為不只是價格的故事，也是消耗量的故事；我們創下了消耗量紀錄，這也放大了我們在燃油效率成本槓桿上的價值——這些槓桿是我們透過精準燃油作業（precision fuel operations）在去年與今年持續推動的。

With the help of finance, operations, IT, everybody, we've got an integrated fuel management system that is giving us value in both how we purchase it, how we distribute it and of course, how we consume it in our -- through our energy management on board.

在財務、營運、IT以及所有人的協助下，我們建立了一套整合式燃油管理系統，讓我們在採購方式、配送方式，以及當然在消耗端——透過車載能源管理——都能創造價值。

So those are some things that are in a high-cost environment give us those double coupon values that we can enjoy. And as far as the storms are concerned, they were very concentrated. Unfortunately, they're across the whole Eastern Seaboard from north to south. And most of that, we're able to work through very quickly, but in a concentrated way. So the money you see there impacted us and were the nice thing for our services, we're able to rebound and push through for the balance of the quarter.

因此，在高成本環境下，這些措施能帶來「雙重折扣券」般的價值，讓我們受益。至於風暴，它們非常集中。不幸的是，影響範圍橫跨整個美國東岸，從北到南。而其中大部分我們都能很快處理完，但確實是在短時間內集中發生。所以你看到的那筆費用確實對我們造成影響；不過對我們服務而言，好的一點是我們能迅速恢復，並在本季剩餘期間把進度追回來、持續推進。

And this is Ed. You were asking about where we have optimism or where the markets are that we think have opportunities. I'll kind of just go around the horn and repeat someone has said on the prepared remarks and try to get in a little bit more detail. Start with intermodal, clearly, there's a reason to be optimistic about domestic Intermodal, domestic non-premium.

我是Ed。你問的是我們在哪些地方抱持樂觀、或哪些市場我們認為有機會。我就大致逐一說明，重申一下有人在事先準備的講稿中提到的內容，並試著補充更多細節。先從聯運開始：很明顯地，我們有理由對國內聯運、國內非高端（non-premium）聯運感到樂觀。

We've seen growth there despite some of those competitive headwinds that we talked about. And I think there's more opportunity to come. When you think about higher fuel prices and what that does to our competitors on the road, it makes Intermodal more compelling naturally.

即使面臨我們提到的一些競爭逆風，我們仍看到那裡的成長。而我認為後續還有更多機會。當你想到更高的燃油價格以及它對我們公路端競爭對手的影響時，聯運自然會變得更具吸引力。

And with the good service product that we're able to offer, I think we have a compelling case to make there. International side, I think there's a lot of trade uncertainty still out there. And frankly, when you're comping against the pull forward that happened last year, that's going to be challenged.

而且憑藉我們能夠提供的優質服務產品，我認為我們在那方面有很有說服力的論點。在國際端，我認為外部仍然存在許多貿易不確定性。坦白說，當你要與去年發生的提前拉貨效應相比時，這將會面臨挑戰。

If I go to coal, we continue to be constructive on the utility side of the business. I think restocking will continue. And I think electricity demand over the medium term at least is going to inflect upward. And so we feel good about that piece. Met side -- or excuse me, on the export side, I think the US coals are finding new opportunities overseas because of all the all the disruption from the conflict as well as commodity price constraints -- well, commodity prices and constraints on sourcing from some of those things. So we'll see how that plays out.

如果我談到煤炭，我們對公用事業端的業務仍持建設性看法。我認為補庫存將會持續。而且我認為中期至少電力需求將會向上拐點。因此我們對這一塊感覺良好。冶金煤端——或者抱歉，在出口端，我認為由於衝突造成的各種擾動，以及大宗商品價格因素——嗯，商品價格以及部分來源受限等因素，美國煤炭正在海外找到新的機會。所以我們會看看後續如何發展。

On the industrial side, I think I mentioned in the prepared remarks that we're exploring actively opportunities that are showing up in places like NGLs, export plastics as well as possibly even some of the petroleum products that we'll want to move in current environment. And generally, we feel pretty good about manufacturing.

在工業端，我想我在事先準備的發言中提到，我們正積極探索在如天然氣液體（NGLs）、塑膠出口，以及甚至可能是一些我們希望在當前環境下運輸的石油產品等領域出現的機會。整體而言，我們對製造業的看法相當正面。

There are some real signs of life out there, whether you're looking at the economic factors or even listening to various stories. We have over more -- we have, gosh, 400 or so projects in our industrial development pipeline. We're actually starting to see that pipeline begin to move.

外部確實出現了一些復甦跡象，不論你是看經濟因素，或甚至聽到各種案例故事。我們在工業開發的專案管線中有超過——我們有，天啊，大約400個左右的專案。我們其實開始看到這條管線開始動起來。

Last year, it was really held pretty tight, but we've had 12 projects come online in Q1 here and that will be worth about 70,000 loads when they're at full rand. And for the full year, we'd like to see a few dozen more of those come across the finish line, and we think we can.

去年它被壓得很緊，但我們在這裡的第一季已有12個專案上線，當它們達到滿載運行時，將約相當於70,000車次（loads）。而就全年而言，我們希望再有數十個專案能夠跨過終點線，我們也認為做得到。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

Jason Seidl，TD Cowen。

Wanted to talk a little bit on the Intermodal side. I mean, obviously, there's some competitive dynamics going on impacting the business. But one of the largest trucking companies indicated that they're already having inquiries from clients about peak season planning.

想談一下聯運（Intermodal）端。我的意思是，很明顯目前有一些競爭動態正在影響業務。但其中一家最大的卡車運輸公司表示，他們已經收到客戶就旺季規劃的詢問。

I wanted to know where you stood with your discussions with customers on that? And then maybe a little bit on the new short line partnership initiative. Is this a one-off? Or do you see, if this gets approved, replicating this in other regions? And if so, where?

我想知道你們在與客戶就此的討論進展如何？另外也想請你談談新的短線鐵路（short line）合作夥伴倡議。這是一次性的嗎？或者如果獲得核准，你們會在其他地區複製推行？如果會的話，會在哪些地方？

I appreciate the questions. They are good ones. Again, I'm bullish on domestic non-premium Intermodal for the rest of the year, at least for the foreseeable future from a combination of factors, first one being, we've seen the supply of over-the-road drivers be constrained. I think that's going to continue to happen. I think I said it on an earlier call that we really need to see demand rather than supply be the thing that pushes this forward.

謝謝你的提問。問題都很好。再說一次，對於今年剩餘時間、至少在可預見的未來，我對國內非高端聯運（domestic non-premium Intermodal）持樂觀態度，原因是多重因素的組合，第一個是，我們看到公路長途（over-the-road）司機供給受到限制。我認為這種情況會持續。我想我在之前一次電話會議上說過，我們真正需要看到的是由需求而非供給來推動這件事向前。

And I think we're starting to see that. You look at the price of on-highway diesel and what trucks are having to pay for that. Intermodal is going to be a compelling value proposition for a lot of customers, but it's only compelling we have a good service product, and that's what John and I are really focused on how do we deliver that value for customers.

而我認為我們開始看到這點。你看看公路柴油的價格，以及卡車必須為此支付的成本。對許多客戶而言，聯運將是一個很有吸引力的價值主張，但前提是我們要有好的服務產品；而這正是我和John真正聚焦的：我們要如何把這個價值交付給客戶。

So I feel pretty good about that piece. In terms of our new partnership with Jaguar, I meant what I said. It's an innovative deal that I think is going to deliver exceptional value for customers. And if we can make it work, and I am very confident that we can, we're going to look to replicate this sort of deal elsewhere.

所以我對這一塊感覺相當不錯。至於我們與Jaguar的新合作夥伴關係，我說的就是我的意思。這是一筆創新的交易，我認為將為客戶帶來卓越的價值。如果我們能讓它運作起來——而我非常有信心我們可以——我們會尋求在其他地方複製這類交易。

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell，Evercore ISI。

John, I wanted to ask you about two specific cost items and how we think about them going from here. You mentioned the fuel consumption down 6% year-over-year, but also down sequentially. I can't find another time where your fuel consumption was down 4Q to 1Q, especially given weather. So is that the new kind of base we should think about going forward, maybe not 6% year-over-year improvement, but continue to march lower from here?

John，我想就兩個特定成本項目問你，並了解我們接下來該如何看待它們。你提到燃油消耗年減6%，而且也較前一季下降。我找不到你們燃油消耗從第四季到第一季下降4%的其他時點，尤其考量天氣因素。所以這是否是我們往後應該視為的新基準？也許不會再有年減6%的改善，但會從這裡繼續往下走？

And then also on headcount, you're in this tight little range all year last year, about 19.3 to 19.4, stepped down about 300 in 1Q. What happened? Why is headcount down? And again, is this going to be a tight range where we should be about down 300 every quarter for the rest of the year?

另外在人力編制方面，你們去年全年都在一個很窄的區間，大約19.3到19.4（千人），第一季下降了約300人。發生了什麼事？為什麼人力編制下降？同樣地，這會是一個緊的區間嗎？我們是否應該預期今年剩餘時間每一季大約再減少300人？

Thanks for your questions. And on our fuel productivity, well, I'd like to take all the credit for such a sequential improvement, it is improving sequentially, but there are some accounting adjustments within that fuel number that give us a small benefit, but sequentially, we're improving, and that's really driven by treating fuel as a major cost lever and precision fueling, how we're managing that and how we're driving consumption, improving locomotive reliability and fuel efficiencies.

謝謝你的問題。關於我們的燃油生產力，雖然我很想把這種季對季改善的功勞全算在我頭上，確實是有季對季改善，但在燃油數字裡有一些會計調整帶來小幅助益；不過就季對季而言，我們是在改善，而這主要是因為我們把燃油視為重要的成本槓桿，推動精準加油（precision fueling），以及我們如何管理、如何驅動消耗，並提升機車可靠度與燃油效率。

As we said before, it's a journey, and the program will stretch over several years and it involves integrating more tech process refinement, both in the field and here at 650, and it's integral in our strategy. So well, it's never going to be a straight line and the volatility in pricing is going to have its own aspect. Our desire is to continue to march towards the most progressive fuel efficiencies we can get.

如同我們之前說過的，這是一段旅程，這個計畫會延伸好幾年，並涉及整合更多技術與流程精進，無論是在現場或是在650這裡，而且它是我們策略中的關鍵一環。因此，這永遠不會是一條直線，而價格波動也會帶來其自身的影響。我們的目標是持續朝我們所能達到的最先進燃油效率邁進。

So that's aligned with our locomotive strategies. It's aligned with our conversions from DC to AC and even found within how we restructure our zero-based plan model and continue to have a relevant plan rather than a historic plan. And as far as labor productivity is concerned, we're benefiting from fewer recrews. We've restructured our starts last year, our zero-based plan affected approximately 200 starts -- train starts and train revisions.

所以這與我們的機車策略一致。也與我們從直流（DC）轉換到交流（AC）的計畫一致，甚至也體現在我們如何重塑零基預算（zero-based）計畫模型，並持續維持一個具相關性的計畫，而不是一個歷史性的計畫。至於勞動生產力，我們正受益於較少的重派班（recrews）。我們去年重整了列車開行（starts），我們的零基計畫影響了大約200個開行——列車開行與列車調整。

This year, we have another pipeline of similar scale, and we'll continue to create predictable schedules. And that helps because as we restructure starts, well, it's being driven by volume and workload and held in place by zero-based plan, it's really focused on lowering held away, better using crew accuracy, lineups for crew rest and crew cycles and those was manifest into a more productive workforce.

今年我們還有另一條規模相近的管線，我們會持續建立可預測的時刻表。這很有幫助，因為當我們重整開行時——它是由運量與工作量驅動，並由零基計畫加以固定——重點其實在於降低外宿滯留（held away），更好地運用乘務準確性、乘務排班（lineups）以安排休息與乘務週期，而這些都會體現在更具生產力的勞動力上。

And our qualified count is really about not chasing the curve, it's about focus on retention, the accuracy of our new hire pipeline and our training and onboarding to better position us to absorb growth with the best existing resources.

而我們的合格人數（qualified count）重點在於不去追逐曲線，而是聚焦留任、新進人員管線的準確性，以及我們的訓練與到職導入（onboarding），以更好地讓我們能用現有最佳資源吸收成長。

So our pipeline is always active. We're recruiting the best people we can find, being very selective and giving them the benefit of a very robust and precise training program. Lots of work to do there, but we're exercising labor productivity and workload so that we can maintain our service structure and give our customers the best experience we can.

所以我們的招募管線一直都很活躍。我們招募能找到的最好人才，非常嚴格篩選，並讓他們受益於非常扎實且精準的訓練計畫。這方面還有很多工作要做，但我們正在推動勞動生產力與工作量管理，以便我們能維持服務架構，並為客戶提供我們所能做到的最佳體驗。

I guess I would just add, we're really not just hiring to some aggregate number. We've got some 90 different crew bases across our network where people have to be qualified to operate in those specific districts. So we have to monitor the demographics of each of those crew bases. When we expect to see retirements come and get ahead of those curves because it takes about six months to hire somebody, train somebody, qualify them and expecting some attrition to happen during that process as well, so we got to do that for 90 different crew bases.

我想我只想補充一點，我們其實不是只針對某個彙總人數去招募。我們在整個網路中大約有 90 個不同的乘務基地（crew bases），而人員必須具備在那些特定區段（districts）運行的資格。因此我們必須監控每一個乘務基地的人員結構。當我們預期會出現退休潮時，就要提前因應，因為從招募一個人、訓練、取得資格大約需要六個月，而且在這個過程中也預期會發生一定的流失，所以我們必須針對 90 個不同的乘務基地都這麼做。

Now some -- we've got cushion, others were in deficit because they're in locations where employment is full and a very difficult place to hire. So there's a lot of work that goes in to make sure that what productivities we're going to be driving across the network so that allows us to absorb attrition versus when will volume come.

現在有些——我們有緩衝空間；另一些則是人力不足，因為它們位於就業幾乎滿載、非常難招人的地點。所以我們需要做大量工作，確保我們將在整個網路推動哪些生產力提升，讓我們能吸收人員流失，而不是等到運量回來才反應。

So it's a real delicate balance to determine the level of hiring, for which location six months in the future in a very uncertain demand environment. And I think right now, we're doing well, but I will tell you, it's probably the the single biggest debate we have internally is the level of hiring we need to do based on the market outlook.

因此，在一個需求環境非常不確定的情況下，要決定六個月後、哪個地點需要招募到什麼程度，這是一個非常微妙的平衡。我認為目前我們做得不錯，但我也要告訴你，內部最大的爭論點，可能就是基於市場展望，我們需要招募的規模到底是多少。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

David Vernon，Bernstein。

Sorry, problem with mute. So I guess, Ed, as you think about the growth prospects for export thermal if that were to kick in, can you kind of help us understand kind of what the range of possible outcomes is there from a volume and also from a yield perspective, would that be additive to ARPU -- negative to ARPU? How do we think about the potential for a pickup in export coal affecting the revenue outlook for you guys?

抱歉，靜音出了點問題。所以我想問，Ed，當你思考出口動力煤（export thermal）的成長前景、如果它真的開始啟動，你能否幫我們理解一下，從運量以及單位收益（yield）的角度，可能的結果範圍大概會是什麼？這會對 ARPU 有加分——還是會拉低 ARPU？我們該如何看待出口煤回升，對你們營收展望可能造成的影響？

Yes. Export thermal would be helpful to our ARPU mix. And the first quarter got hurt by winter weather. It was just -- it was hard to get out of the ground, hard to move it and hard to dump it. But I think we're going to see that rebound, particularly if the conflict in the Middle East continues there's going to be more markets open up to US coal. So yes, I'm optimistic about it, and it will be helpful.

是的。出口動力煤會有助於我們的 ARPU 組合。第一季受到冬季天候影響而受挫。就是——很難把煤從地底挖出來、很難運出去、也很難卸貨。但我認為我們會看到反彈，特別是如果中東衝突持續，將會有更多市場對美國煤炭開放。所以是的，我對此感到樂觀，而且這會帶來幫助。

Richa Harnain, Deutsche Bank.

Richa Harnain，德意志銀行。

I wanted to talk about costs, 1% cost increases by 5% inflation. Maybe you can talk about initiatives that you're focused on to keep that cost trajectory going. You gave us a lot on headcount and stuff and fuel efficiency. But maybe talk about some of the other buckets where you're seeing the most success what hasn't been done that you think there's more potential for?

我想談談成本：成本增加 1%，但通膨是 5%。也許你可以談談你們目前聚焦哪些措施，來讓這個成本走勢能持續下去。你們在員工人數、燃油效率等方面已經給了我們很多資訊。但也許可以談談其他一些你們最有成效的成本項目（buckets），以及有哪些還沒做、但你認為仍有更大潛力的地方？

That's on the cost side. And then, Ed, I would love to hear, I think you said you feel really good about manufacturing picking up, and you've heard some anecdotes from your customers. I know you talked about the success you're winning on projects and things, but I'd love to hear maybe more broadly what your sense on the macro backdrop and what hand that's delivering to you?

這是成本面。然後，Ed，我也很想聽你談談：我想你說你對製造業回升感覺很好，而且你也從客戶那裡聽到一些案例。我知道你談到你們在專案等方面贏得的成果，但我更想從更宏觀的角度聽聽你對總體環境的感受，以及這對你們帶來了什麼樣的助力？

Yes, I'll start on the cost side. You point out the I think, pretty good cost control we had here in the first quarter, up 1% with 5% headwinds from inflation and fuel. And it's really driven by a couple of things. And we have a really good track record that we've shown over the last two years of getting about $500 million in productivity, and we've got a lot of projects and initiatives in the hopper to hit that $150 million plus.

好的，我先從成本面開始。你指出我們第一季的成本控管相當不錯：在通膨與燃油帶來 5% 逆風的情況下，成本僅上升 1%。這主要是由幾個因素驅動。而且我們在過去兩年已展現非常好的紀錄，生產力提升約 5 億美元；我們也有很多專案與措施在進行中，以達成 1.5 億美元以上的目標。

For the first quarter specifically, and then I'll turn it over to John to kind of talk about what we're working on the remainder of the year. just from fuel efficiency alone, we last year improved 5% the year before that 3%, now first quarter, we're hitting an all-time first quarter record. So really strong performance there. And that -- we will continue down that path.

就第一季而言，接著我會把時間交給 John，請他談談我們今年剩餘時間在做什麼。單就燃油效率來看，我們去年改善了 5%，前一年改善了 3%，而今年第一季我們創下歷來第一季的最佳紀錄。所以表現非常強勁。而且——我們會持續沿著這條路走下去。

And that labor productivity continues to be one of our biggest components where we really benefited quite a bit over the last two years. And as we've talked about in the past, not just T&E productivity, but really labor productivity across the board.

而勞動生產力仍然是我們最大的組成項之一，過去兩年我們在這方面受益良多。如同我們過去談過的，不只是 T&E（運輸與引擎，Transportation & Engine）生產力，而是全面性的勞動生產力提升。

Yes. Jason, you hit on a disciplined approach to this. and we're committed to it. We've adjusted our budgets accordingly. But it's across all streams. Productivity, obviously, we started in T&E, our zero-based planning through 2025 and version three that we're undertaking in 2026 is giving us a benefit on crew starts with a focus on continuing to create our own capacity through weight and train length that give us the opportunity to really make best use of our infrastructure.

是的。Jason，你提到我們在這方面採取了嚴謹的方法，而我們也會堅持下去。我們已相應調整了預算。但這是涵蓋所有面向的。生產力方面，顯然我們從 T&E 開始；我們的零基礎規劃（zero-based planning）一路做到 2025，而我們在 2026 進行的第三版（version three）也正在帶來效益，反映在乘務出勤（crew starts）上，並聚焦於透過車重與列車長度來持續創造我們自己的運能，讓我們有機會真正把基礎設施用到最好。

And from the T&E, there are incidental costs that come out of that with running a more resilient railway, and leveraging of our portals with fewer train starts, more mechanical resilience, better locomotive capability. So all of those things flow through to purchase services and others.

而在 T&E 方面，營運更具韌性的鐵路會帶來一些附帶成本，但透過更少的列車開行（train starts）來提升我們的門戶（portals）運用、提高機械可靠性、改善機車能力。因此，這些都會反映到外購服務（purchase services）以及其他項目上。

Big focus on our next generation of purchase service and enterprise resource management and the discipline around those major purchases and fuel is going to continue to be a big driver of that. But I'm really proud of what the team is doing on safety, significantly lower incidents and oxidants even above and below the FRA reporting threshold.

我們也非常聚焦於下一代外購服務與企業資源管理（enterprise resource management），以及對這些重大採購的紀律；燃油也將持續是其中的重要驅動因素。但我也為團隊在安全方面的表現感到非常自豪：事故與事件（incidents and oxidants）顯著降低，甚至在 FRA（聯邦鐵路管理局）申報門檻以上與以下都同樣改善。

That's giving us the ability to really drive the plan, have accountability where our cars are, have more accuracy on when our trains arrive and depart. That gets us lower equipment rents that gets us into better locomotive turns, better locomotive utilization and there's significant value in those things.

這讓我們能真正推動計畫、對車輛所在位置建立問責、並更精準掌握列車到離站時間。這使我們降低設備租金（equipment rents）、提升機車周轉（locomotive turns）、提高機車利用率，而這些都有顯著價值。

So it is really working the fundamentals with projects that are coming online and really driving big benefits. It's small wins and big ones put together. They are going to really create the flywheel that we've got that's creating the improvement.

所以這確實是在把基本功做好，讓各項專案陸續上線並帶來重大效益。小勝與大勝累積在一起。它們將真正形成我們所擁有的飛輪效應，推動持續改善。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

Jordan Alliger，高盛。

Just wanted to come back to sort of -- I know you've talked a lot about the intermodal service, that's a key focal point. And I was looking at your network update slide, and it looks like the intermodal service composite has been sort of like 85%, which is off from the high of low 90s. So I guess, is that weather related? Is it temporary? How do you address that? And in your view, do you need to be above 90% to start getting market share back?

我想回到——我知道你們談了很多聯運（intermodal）服務，這是關鍵焦點。我在看你們的網路更新投影片時，聯運服務綜合指標看起來大約是 85%，低於先前 90% 出頭的高點。所以我想問，這是天候因素嗎？是暫時性的嗎？你們要如何改善？另外以你的看法，你們是否需要回到 90% 以上，才能開始把市占率搶回來？

We'll let talk about market share. But if you've heard me speak on these calls, I'm never pleased about any particular metric. But I am pleased that sequentially, we're pacing slightly ahead of where we were last year at this time. And it's not just the average, it's really getting down to the lane, getting down into the customer, the important commitments that we've made to our customers and their product view and their sorting view and the end-to-end capability that we're building in them.

我們先讓他談談市占率。但如果你聽過我在這些電話會議上的發言，我從來不會對任何單一指標感到滿意。不過我很高興的是，從環比來看，我們的進度略微領先去年同期。而且不只是平均值；真正重要的是深入到各條運輸走廊（lane）、深入到客戶層級，聚焦我們對客戶做出的關鍵承諾、他們的產品視角與分揀（sorting）視角，以及我們正在為他們打造的端到端能力。

So I would love to be a higher number. I'm striving to be a higher number. But sequentially, I'm very pleased that we're seeing that improvement. And my job is to give Ed every opportunity to walk into any customer with good service in his back pocket to negotiate is our market share.

所以我很希望能是一個更高的數字。我正在努力把數字提高。但就趨勢而言，我很高興我們看到那樣的改善。而我的工作是讓 Ed 在與任何客戶洽談時，口袋裡都有優質服務作為後盾，去談判我們的市占率。

Thanks, John. And look, I think we will have a better number, and I know you're working on it. But look, you nailed it, John, I mean, you said that we've focused at the lane level. There are some lanes that have a lot of potential, some lanes that have some potential.

謝謝，John。而且你看，我認為我們會有更好的數字，我也知道你正在努力。但你說得很到位，John，我是說，你提到我們一直聚焦在路線（lane）層級。有些路線有很大的潛力，有些路線也有一些潛力。

And where we have a lot of potential and we have very good data on that, we're very focused on delivering an exceptional service product. And that's what John and I talk about every single day. That doesn't necessarily manifest itself in an average, but I can tell you right now that we are laser-focused on those lanes and those opportunities where we have a lot of potential to take traffic off the highway and deliver a very good service product for them. So thank you.

而在我們有很大潛力、且我們對此有非常好的數據的地方，我們非常專注於交付卓越的服務產品。這也是我和 John 每一天都在談的事情。這不一定會反映在平均值上，但我現在可以告訴你，我們非常聚焦在那些路線與機會上——在那裡我們有很大潛力把貨量從公路轉移過來，並為他們提供非常好的服務產品。所以謝謝。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz。

So Mark, I want to refer back to the fourth quarter call. I think you were kind of maybe somewhat fresh off the share shift in Intermodal. And you had some fairly aggressive comments, I think, on just competing in the market and you're going to compete hard in the market. What do you think the competitive dynamic is like among rails in the East?

Mark，我想回到第四季的電話會議。我記得你當時可能才剛經歷聯運（Intermodal）的市占變動不久。而你對於在市場上競爭、以及你們會在市場上強力競爭，發表了一些相當強勢的評論。你認為東部各家鐵路之間的競爭態勢是怎麼樣的？

It seems like there are kind of puts and takes, maybe you've got a little growth in chemicals, autos, maybe a little late rail share, I'm not sure, and then you got -- they've got some intermodal. But how do you think about that? Is it pretty stable? And then I think on the -- I guess, on the international and domestic, is there a share shift in international?

看起來好像有一些此消彼長：也許你們在化學品、汽車有一些成長，也許有一點晚近的鐵路市占，我不確定，然後他們——他們在聯運上也有一些。但你怎麼看這件事？算是相當穩定嗎？另外我想問——我想在國際與國內方面，國際業務是否有市占移轉？

Or that's just like kind of completely like-for-like customer? And I think, Ed, you talked about the just the weakness in international being maybe just demand-driven, but not share shift. So a couple of thoughts on competitive dynamic and then just shared international intermodal.

還是那只是完全同一批客戶的對等變化（like-for-like）？而且我想，Ed，你提到國際業務的疲弱可能只是需求驅動，但不是市占移轉。所以想請你談談競爭態勢，以及國際聯運的市占情況。

Sure, Tom. Thanks. Good question. And look, obviously, following the merger, you saw a flurry of new alliances taking place with our Eastern peer and Western peer and some of the Canadian railroads and that has obviously had some level of impact on us. I mean it's enhanced competition, frankly, just from the mere announcement of this merger.

當然，Tom。謝謝。問得很好。你看，很明顯地，在合併之後，你看到我們的東部同業與西部同業、以及一些加拿大鐵路公司之間出現一波新的結盟，而那顯然對我們造成了一定程度的影響。坦白說，光是宣布這項合併，就已經強化了競爭。

So we talked about some of the losses that we've had and that we're going to continue to fight like heck to retain our share and fight in other areas to gain to offset some of that. And that's what the team has been doing. They've been doing a great job, I think, competing.

所以我們談過我們遭遇的一些流失，而我們也會繼續拼命地捍衛我們的市占，並在其他領域爭取成長，以抵消其中一部分影響。這正是團隊一直在做的事。我認為他們在競爭上做得非常好。

Look, I think you have to step back. This North American rail network is running pretty damn well. All the railroads are operating well and they're all offering very good competitive products, which is really great because we are an integrated supply chain and we cheer on the other railroads to have good service because we all want to be -- we all interchange with each other. Half of our volume interchanges with another railroad. So we don't want anybody to be in a bad service situation.

你看，我認為你得退一步看。北美這個鐵路網路目前運行得相當好。所有鐵路公司都營運良好，也都提供非常有競爭力的產品；這其實很棒，因為我們是一個整合式供應鏈，我們也樂見其他鐵路公司有好的服務，因為我們都希望——我們彼此之間都要交接（interchange）。我們有一半的運量會與另一家鐵路公司交接。所以我們不希望任何一家陷入服務不佳的狀況。

So it's not just us, we want everybody to be good, and they are all good right now. But when it comes to the competitive offering, I think the product that John and the operations team has put out there has been really good. It's been really resilient. And I think we're doing a good job on the commercial side as well being more responsive and working to solve problems with our customers.

所以不只是我們，我們希望大家都表現良好，而現在大家確實都做得不錯。但談到競爭性的供給，我認為 John 和營運團隊推出的產品真的很好。它非常有韌性。而且我認為我們在商務端也做得不錯，更加即時回應，並與客戶一起解決問題。

So I feel really good about our competitive position right now, I do, in pretty much all the areas. I think the challenge we have on the international side, there's a lot of uncertainty going back to tariffs of last year. There has -- there's been probably some inventory depletion that's taken place and it hasn't seemed to really fully started to restock yet. So international has been relatively weak.

所以我對我們目前的競爭地位感覺非常好，確實如此，幾乎在所有領域都是。我認為我們在國際端的挑戰是，回到去年關稅的議題，存在很多不確定性。可能已經發生了一些去庫存，而看起來還沒有真正完全開始補庫存。所以國際業務相對疲弱。

Not sure when that's going to turn around. Domestic on the other hand, for other dynamics, I think given the cost profile with what fuel is doing to truckers, we feel pretty good about being able to taking some share off the highway. But Ed, why don't you talk a little bit more?

不確定何時會回升。另一方面，國內端因為其他動態，我認為考量到燃油價格對卡車業者成本結構的影響，我們對於能從公路端拿到一些市占感到相當有信心。不過 Ed，你再多談一點吧？

Sure. I think you kind of nailed it. We believe that the product we're delivering is very competitive in the marketplace. And you're right, Mark. We want all of our rail competitors to be very strong because oftentimes it's hard to get customers to discriminate between ourselves and other railroads. We're all just one big railroad. And that's true in many cases.

好的。我覺得你說得很到位。我們相信我們所交付的產品在市場上非常有競爭力。你說得對，Mark。我們希望所有鐵路競爭對手都很強，因為很多時候很難讓客戶在我們與其他鐵路公司之間做出區分。大家就像是一家大型鐵路。在很多情況下確實如此。

So we want strong rail competition. We're really focused on the highway. The competitive landscape continues to be very competitive. And frankly, higher fuel prices are probably helping us deliver additional value for our customers across the board, particularly on the domestic Intermodal side.

所以我們希望鐵路競爭強勁。我們真正聚焦的是公路端。競爭環境仍然非常激烈。坦白說，較高的燃油價格可能正在幫助我們在各方面為客戶提供更多價值，特別是在國內聯運這一塊。

And we've seen a little bit of share shift, as you alluded to. Some of it's a competitive response, some of it's just more book diversification. And we continue to work on how we can improve our position. I'm really proud of the team and what they've been able to do.

而且我們確實看到一些市占移轉，如你所提。其中一部分是競爭性的回應，一部分則只是更多的訂單分散（book diversification）。我們也持續努力思考如何改善我們的地位。我對團隊以及他們所做到的事情感到非常自豪。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital Markets.

RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

My question is for Ed, taking a little more high level on the freight recession. We're hearing a lot of commentary from your counterparts in trucking that is outright saying the recession -- this recession is coming to an end. But your peers in railroads seem to be a little bit more conservative in terms of making that call. Is this just a supply-side thing where the new rigs have driven better pricing for trucks, and that's what's causing that more positive view?

我的問題想問 Ed，從更高層次談談貨運衰退（freight recession）。我們聽到很多來自卡車運輸同業的評論，直接說這次衰退——這次衰退正在結束。但你們在鐵路的同業似乎在做出這個判斷時更保守一些。這是否只是供給面的因素：新車（rig）增加帶動卡車更好的定價，而這就是造成他們更正面看法的原因？

Or I know the trucks have talked a little bit about higher demand in some of the industrial verticals. Just curious if you're seeing any green shoots on the demand side outside of truck pricing or just your own pricing that is suggesting that the freight recession might be finally coming to a bit of an end here?

或者我知道卡車業者也談到在某些工業垂直領域需求較高。想請教你是否在需求端看到任何復甦跡象（green shoots），不只是卡車定價或你們自己的定價因素，顯示貨運衰退可能終於要開始走向尾聲？

Really good question. And I think I'm probably talking to the same folks you are when it comes to trucks on the supply side. There's a few uncertainties out there in a few parts of the equation that haven't been solved yet. The first one being what's going on with housing and interest rates and inflation.

這個問題問得很好。我想在供給端談到卡車時，我大概也在跟你們同樣的那些人交流。在這個等式的幾個部分上，還存在一些尚未解決的不確定性。第一個就是房市、利率與通膨目前的走向。

And those are three big factors that I think really need to resolve themselves before we can declare anything over, so to speak. At the same time, we see the IPI come up. We've seen manufacturing for, I think, three straight months now, be above water.

而我認為這三個都是很大的因素，在我們可以說某件事已經結束之前（姑且這麼說），它們確實需要先自行釐清、回到較明朗的狀態。同時，我們看到 IPI 回升。我們也看到製造業我想已經連續三個月維持在擴張區間。

We see some strength in the auto industry, both in terms of demand as well as supply. So there are some green shoots, and we are cautiously optimistic about certain segments. But I remain vigilant on those three factors that I think really need to come around before we could say we're out of the woods.

我們也看到汽車產業有一些力道，不論是在需求面或供給面。所以確實出現了一些復甦的萌芽，我們對某些區隔抱持審慎樂觀。但我仍然密切關注那三個因素；在我看來，它們真的需要好轉，我們才能說已經走出困境。

Yes. I think to call an end of the freight recession may be a bit premature. But I think for us to be able to start taking share from highway, fuel prices are going to help that. So that's a little bit of the optimism you hear. And then some of the green shoots we see in industrial production, which usually has a six-month lead time, it gives us a little bit of optimism that maybe there's something they're brewing.

是的。我認為現在就宣告貨運衰退結束，可能還有點言之過早。但對我們而言，若要開始從公路運輸那邊搶市占，燃油價格會對此有所助益。所以你聽到的那一點樂觀情緒，部分來自這裡。另外，我們在工業生產上看到的一些萌芽，通常會有六個月的領先期，這也讓我們稍微樂觀，覺得也許有些事情正在醞釀。

And I think, Ed, you would say that when it comes to manufacturing, we're not necessarily seeing it yet except for some of the components that go into manufacturing. Those are areas like plastics and some metal components, we're starting to see some growth there. So we're not calling an end to the freight recession, but we're saying there's green shoots. So we'll keep an eye on it.

而我想，Ed，你會說，就製造業而言，我們未必已經在整體上看到它的回升，除了某些投入製造的零組件。像是塑膠以及一些金屬零組件等領域，我們開始看到一些成長。所以我們不會說貨運衰退已經結束，但我們會說出現了復甦的萌芽。因此我們會持續關注。

Next is Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

下一位是 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。

Sorry, Mark, you got one more from me. I'll keep it pretty short here. Jason, can you just help us and maybe already address this, but the average sequential OR change that you guys would view in 2Q? And maybe just at a higher level, I mean, you guys have been working towards like more safe outcomes and everything I get it, but the operating ratio has been moving maybe in the wrong direction. Should we be thinking, though, if that freight market is turning that there's a lot of like potential for incremental margin here, too?

抱歉，Mark，我還有最後一個問題。我會盡量簡短。Jason，你能否幫我們說明一下——也許你已經提到過——你們在第二季會如何看待 OR（營運比率）的平均季比變化？另外從更高層次來看，我的意思是，你們一直在朝更安全的成果等方向努力，這我理解，但營運比率似乎在往不太理想的方向走。如果貨運市場正在轉向，我們是否應該認為這裡也有很大的增量利潤空間？

Yes, absolutely. No doubt about that. We've got the capacity to move all this volume. John and the team have done a great job from a service perspective and making sure we're ready to handle it. We've got the resources in place. And then to your point, because of that capacity, when this comes through, it's a really good incrementals.

是的，絕對是。這點毫無疑問。我們有能力承接並運輸所有這些貨量。John 和團隊在服務面做得非常好，確保我們已準備好應對。我們已把資源配置到位。而且如你所說，正因為有這樣的產能，當需求回來時，增量效益會非常可觀。

I think you just wanted to hear the sequential margin improvement, you would think a couple of points.

我想你是想聽季比的利潤率改善幅度，你會認為大概是幾個百分點。

Yes. Yes. About 200 basis points of sequential OR benefit from first quarter to going into the second quarter.

是的。是的。從第一季到進入第二季，OR 季比大約可改善 200 個基點。

Thanks a lot, Brandon. And look, I think just to kind of recap a little bit here. We told you at the beginning of the year that we were focused on preserving safety, maintaining service and controlling costs while we were going to fight for every dollar of quality revenue we could.

非常感謝你，Brandon。另外，我想在這裡稍微做個回顧。我們在年初就告訴各位，我們的重點是在維持安全、維持服務並控制成本，同時我們會為每一塊錢的高品質營收全力以赴。

And we did exactly that in the first quarter. Revenue being flat later than we hoped, but we are more optimistic on the top line as we enter the second quarter because there are some signs of life emerging in the market.

而我們在第一季確實就是這麼做的。營收持平的時間比我們希望的更久，但在進入第二季之際，我們對營收端（top line）更為樂觀，因為市場上開始出現一些復甦跡象。

Now that said, this is a very dynamic world with an awful lot of cross currents. So we've just got to keep an eye on that. Let's keep an eye on those weekly volumes, and that will give you some indication of how things are shaping up. But we got a tight grip on cost right now and real good momentum on productivity and efficiency.

不過話說回來，這是一個非常動態的世界，且有非常多相互牽動的力量。所以我們必須持續留意。讓我們持續觀察每週貨量，這會給你一些線索，了解情勢如何發展。但我們目前對成本控管得很緊，同時在生產力與效率方面也有很好的動能。

So we're going to carefully balance all of our resources, and so that we're able to move the volume when it comes while we continue on this never-ending drive for productivity and efficiency. And regarding the merger, we're going to submit our revised application here on the 30th.

因此我們會謹慎地平衡所有資源，確保當貨量到來時我們能夠承運，同時也會持續推動這場永無止境的生產力與效率提升。至於合併案，我們將在 30 日提交修訂後的申請。

Like I said before, the rationale is the same, but the depth and the quality of the data in the application considerably strengthens our case. And look, when you step back and look at it, our customers, our supply chains, they're increasingly national and global, but our US freight rail network is fragmented.

如我先前所說，邏輯依然相同，但申請文件中的資料深度與品質大幅提升，顯著強化了我們的論點。而且你退一步來看，我們的客戶、我們的供應鏈正日益走向全國化與全球化，但美國的貨運鐵路網路卻是分散的。

So a single-line transcontinental network is going to simplify service, reduce interchange complexity, that's going to allow freight to move more efficiently, more safely and more reliably from origin to destination. That's what this is about. It really is going to deliver a very compelling proposition for more customers to choose rail over highway. And ultimately, I think that's good for the country, and it's good for everybody. So thanks all for your participation in today's call and stay safe out there. Thank you.

因此，一條單一線路的橫貫大陸網路將能簡化服務、降低交接（interchange）的複雜度，讓貨物能以更高效率、更安全、更可靠地從起點運至終點。這就是這件事的核心。它確實會提供一個非常有吸引力的方案，讓更多客戶選擇鐵路而非公路。最終，我認為這對國家有利，也對所有人都有利。所以感謝各位參與今天的電話會議，請大家在外注意安全。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a good weekend.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此確實結束。再次感謝各位出席。此刻也請各位掛斷電話線路。祝各位週末愉快。