Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Norfolk Southern third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加諾福克南方航空 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

This call is being recorded on Tuesday, October 22, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Luke Nichols. Please go ahead.

本次電話會議於 2024 年 10 月 22 日星期二進行錄音。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or future performance of Norfolk Southern Corporation, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results. Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full disclosure of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important.

大家早安。請注意，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款含義內的某些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到風險和不確定性，可能與實際結果有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告，以全面揭露我們認為最重要的風險和不確定性。

Our presentation slides are available at norfolksouthern.com in the Investors section, along with our reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures including adjusted or non-GAAP operating ratio. Please note that all references to our prospective operating ratio during today's call are being provided on an adjusted basis.

我們的簡報投影片可在norfolksouthern.com 的投資者部分獲取，以及我們今天使用的任何非公認會計準則衡量指標與可比公認會計準則衡量指標（包括調整後或非公認會計準則營運比率）的對帳。請注意，今天電話會議期間所有有關我們預期營運比率的參考資料都是經過調整的。

Turning to slide 3. It's now my pleasure to introduce Norfolk Southern's President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark George.

轉向幻燈片 3。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Here with me today are John Orr, our Chief Operating Officer; Claude Elkins, our Chief Marketing Officer; and Jason Zante, our recently appointed Chief Financial Officer. I've had the privilege of working closely with Jason during my five-year tenure at Norfolk Southern, and he brings incredible talent, experience, and leadership to our executive team.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天和我在一起的是我們的營運長約翰·奧爾 (John Orr)；克勞德·埃爾金斯，我們的首席行銷長；以及我們最近任命的財務長 Jason Zante。在諾福克南方航空的五年任期內，我有幸與傑森密切合作，他為我們的執行團隊帶來了令人難以置信的才華、經驗和領導力。

Over the last few weeks, it's been energizing to connect with labor leaders, regulators, customers, and my fellow railroaders across the Norfolk Southern network. We have a strong franchise with diversified markets, high-quality customers and partners as well as skilled employees who are committed to successfully executing on our strategy and delivering for our shareholders, customers, colleagues, and communities.

在過去的幾周里，與諾福克南方鐵路網絡上的勞工領袖、監管機構、客戶和我的鐵路同事建立聯繫一直令人充滿活力。我們擁有強大的特許經營權，擁有多元化的市場、高品質的客戶和合作夥伴以及熟練的員工，他們致力於成功執行我們的策略並為我們的股東、客戶、同事和社區提供服務。

Speaking of colleagues and communities, I want to thank our amazing team of railroaders who planned for and responded valiantly to the devastation that Hurricane Helene caused across our network. It was their fast and effective actions that resulted in us being able to recover and serve our communities within days. There's a lot more work to do, but we've made enormous progress.

說到同事和社區，我要感謝我們出色的鐵路人員團隊，他們為颶風海倫在我們的網路上造成的破壞進行了規劃並做出了勇敢的反應。正是他們快速有效的行動使我們能夠在幾天內恢復並為我們的社區提供服務。還有很多工作要做，但我們已經取得了巨大進展。

It's the tremendous skill and dedication of our routers that have enabled us to deliver third quarter results that are among the best in the company's history. Together, we drove productivity, grew volumes, and delivered notable sequential and year-over-year margin improvement while overcoming a challenging landscape. We achieved 3% higher revenue compared to the prior year and adjusted earnings per share was 23% higher than the third quarter last year. Importantly, we delivered 570 basis points of adjusted OR improvement bringing that ratio down to 63.4%, continuing to close the margin gap with peers.

正是我們路由器的卓越技能和奉獻精神使我們能夠實現公司歷史上最好的第三季業績。我們共同提高了生產力，增加了產量，並實現了顯著的連續和同比利潤率改善，同時克服了充滿挑戰的環境。與去年同期相比，我們的營收成長了 3%，調整後每股收益比去年第三季成長了 23%。重要的是，我們實現了 570 個基點的調整後 OR 改善，使該比率降至 63.4%，繼續縮小與同業的利潤差距。

You'll hear today from John about the incredible work of the operations team that is driving significant and sustainable improvements as well as resilience in overcoming multiple weather challenges and an East Coast port disruption. Their commitment to excellence is helping us build a stronger, more efficient network. We also accelerated volumes in the quarter. Ed will provide greater detail on the components, the drivers, and outlook for our markets. And finally, Jason will provide color to a number of notable achievements in terms of productivity as well as line sales and project rationalization.

今天您將聽到約翰講述營運團隊的出色工作，他們正在推動重大和可持續的改進，以及克服多種天氣挑戰和東海岸港口中斷的復原力。他們對卓越的承諾正在幫助我們建立一個更強大、更有效率的網絡。我們也加快了本季的銷量。 Ed 將提供有關我們市場的組成部分、驅動因素和前景的更多詳細資訊。最後，Jason 將為生產力、生產線銷售和專案合理化的許多顯著成就提供色彩。

I'll turn it over now to John to start with an overview of our operational progress. John?

我現在將其交給約翰，首先概述我們的營運進度。約翰？

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. In Q3, our team drove system-wide improvements that are demonstrating how our focus on safety is protecting our people and our organization while serving as the foundation for sustainable service and productivity improvements. I am delighted to share our transformation agenda proof points.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早安。在第三季度，我們的團隊推動了系統範圍內的改進，展示了我們對安全的關注如何保護我們的員工和組織，同時作為永續服務和生產力改進的基礎。我很高興分享我們的轉型議程證據點。

Our guiding value is safety. Overall, I'm very encouraged with our progress on safety. While our FRA personal injury rate has increased, serious injuries and total accidents have declined significantly, 40% and 20%, respectively.

我們的指導價值是安全。總的來說，我對我們在安全方面取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。雖然我們的法蘭克福機場人身傷害率上升，但嚴重傷害和事故總數卻顯著下降，分別下降了 40% 和 20%。

Our blueprint for commitment starts with our people. They are value creators. Through our new Thoroughbred Academy, we are investing in the work environment and core railway skills. In the quarter, over 300 top-level operations leaders completed the first of a multiyear curriculum that builds organizational trust and drives business performance. And over the next three months, 2,300 frontline and operating officers will participate in safety curriculums.

我們的承諾藍圖始於我們的員工。他們是價值創造者。透過我們新的純種馬學院，我們正在投資於工作環境和核心鐵路技能。本季度，300 多名頂級營運領導者完成了旨在建立組織信任並推動業務績效的多年課程的第一期。在接下來的三個月裡，2,300 名第一線和操作人員將參加安全課程。

Turning to service. With safety as our guiding value, service performance is our North Star. The team is designing out handlings and extending train schedules, which is producing gains in speed and consistency. Q3 car velocity was 13% higher year-over-year, driven by a 9% increase in train speed and progressive reductions in terminal dwell. The productivity improvements driving service are also allowing us to accelerate cost reduction and create a more competitive platform for growth.

轉向服務。以安全為指導價值，以服務績效為北極星。團隊正在設計處理方式並延長列車時刻表，從而提高速度和一致性。第三季汽車速度年增 13%，這得益於火車速度提高 9% 和終點站停留時間逐步減少。生產力的提高推動了服務的發展，也使我們能夠加速降低成本並創造更具競爭力的成長平台。

Our flywheel of cost takeout initiatives has been robust. Year-to-date, we reduced over 130 crew starts per day with an 8% reduction in cost per start, including a 20% reduction in overtime and the elimination of attendance and other unproductive incentives.

我們的成本削減計劃飛輪一直強勁。今年迄今為止，我們每天減少了 130 多名船員的開機次數，每次開機的成本降低了 8%，其中加班時間減少了 20%，並取消了出勤率和其他非生產性激勵措施。

On the intermodal front, the new intermodal reservation system is helping us develop a unique value proposition in the industry by adding terminal visibility, accountability, and rigor. Locomotive productivity in the quarter improved 18% year-over-year, allowing us to reduce our fleet and capital requirements for both rolling stock and engines. We've stored over 500 locomotives and have moved 8,000-plus cars off-line since March. This has allowed us to challenge previous capital spending assumptions.

在多式聯運方面，新的多式聯運預訂系統透過增加終端可見度、問責制和嚴謹性，幫助我們在業界中建立獨特的價值主張。本季機車生產率年增 18%，使我們能夠減少機車車輛和引擎的車隊和資本需求。自 3 月以來，我們已經儲存了 500 多台機車，並已將 8,000 多輛汽車下線。這使我們能夠挑戰先前的資本支出假設。

Through our new precision energy management program, we've optimized HPT standards, extended train schedules, and are relaying more power from train to train, keeping assets in productive revenue service longer. As a result, fuel efficiencies are at record levels.

透過我們新的精確能源管理計劃，我們優化了 HPT 標準，延長了列車時刻表，並在列車之間傳遞更多電力，從而使資產在生產性收入服務中的使用壽命更長。因此，燃油效率達到了創紀錄的水平。

Our strategy is both targeted and broad, tactical and strategic, ranging across structural improvements in consumption, procurement, materials management, purchase service optimization, crew cost efficiencies, and productive enhancements and we've just scratched the surface in extolling a few of the initiatives that are within our pipeline that are helping us close the competitive gap and track confidently to our cost reduction commitments.

我們的策略既有針對性又廣泛，既有戰術性又有策略性，涵蓋消費、採購、材料管理、採購服務優化、人員成本效率和生產力增強方面的結構性改進，我們只是淺嚐輒止地讚揚了其中的一些措施我們的產品線正在幫助我們縮小競爭差距並自信地履行我們降低成本的承諾。

As we move to the next slide, I want to take a moment to state how proud I am of our response to Hurricanes Helen and Milton, especially to our engineering teams. They proactively protected our employees, communities, and assets. Our recovery demonstrates the grit and capability of our team. Responders cleared over 15,000 trees, managed over 1,000 locations with power outages, repaired multiple washouts and scour locations, and supported local responders, including two instances where they led life-saving civilian rescues.

當我們轉到下一張投影片時，我想花點時間表達我對我們對颶風海倫和米爾頓的反應感到多麼自豪，特別是對我們的工程團隊。他們積極保護我們的員工、社區和資產。我們的復原證明了我們團隊的勇氣和能力。救援人員清理了 15,000 多棵樹木，管理了 1,000 多個停電地點，修復了多個沖刷和沖刷地點，並為當地救援人員提供支持，其中包括他們領導的兩次平民救援行動。

This resilience highlights our preparedness and ability to recover swiftly from natural disasters. None of this is possible without an inspired and committed team. We are enriching a strong culture by blending external talent with legacy leaders in a field-first management team that is accelerating solutions and deepening ownership and accountability.

這種復原力凸顯了我們從自然災害中迅速恢復的準備和能力。如果沒有一個充滿靈感和忠誠的團隊，這一切都是不可能的。我們透過將外部人才與傳統領導者融合在一個領域第一的管理團隊中來豐富強大的文化，該團隊正在加速解決方案並深化所有權和責任感。

Our new labor agreements enable us to innovate across our entire workforce. So what you see is that we have established a new baseline and standards heading into Q4. These are providing next-level perspectives of our assets, their utilization, and the service quality they unlock. Working as a field-centric team, we are building a safer, more efficient, and more resilient operation. Success breeds success.

我們的新勞工協議使我們能夠在整個員工隊伍中進行創新。所以你看到的是，我們在第四季建立了新的基準和標準。這些為我們的資產、資產利用率和所釋放的服務品質提供了新的視角。作為一個以現場為中心的團隊，我們正在建立更安全、更有效率、更有彈性的營運。成功孕育成功。

Thank you, and I'll turn it to Ed.

謝謝你，我會把它轉給艾德。

Well, thank you, John, and good morning to everyone on the call. I'll start on slide 10 with a review of our commercial results for the third quarter where you'll see that the work we're putting into creating a fluid network and dependable service delivered year-over-year revenue and volume growth. Overall revenue of $3.05 billion was 3% higher than the third quarter in the prior year and volume moved up 7% year-over-year with all three segments contributing gains for the quarter, while ARPU fell 4% as our price gains were outpaced by lower fuel surcharge revenue, lower coal prices ,and unfavorable impacts from intermodal mix. You've heard me discuss all these factors in previous quarters.

好吧，謝謝你，約翰，祝所有參加電話會議的人早安。我將從幻燈片 10 開始回顧我們第三季度的商業業績，您會看到我們為創建流暢的網絡和可靠的服務所做的工作實現了同比收入和銷量的增長。總收入為 30.5 億美元，比去年第三季度增長 3%，銷量同比增長 7%，所有三個部門都為本季度帶來收益，而 ARPU 下降 4%，因為我們的價格漲幅超過了燃油附加費收入下降、煤炭價格下降以及多式聯運的不利影響。您已經聽我在前幾個季度討論過所有這些因素。

The merchandise segment produced year-over-year volume growth, led by our grain markets and segments of our chemicals business. NS was able to deliver this growth backed by a service product that our customers can count on every day. And you've heard me talk all year long about our focus on our merchandise business and the increased value to our customers is evident as this marks the 37th out of the prior 38 quarters where merchandise RPU less fuel grew year-over-year. Now, Hurricane Helene impacted certain segments of our merchandise business in the Southeast, but we expect volumes to gradually recover as our affected customers' operations normalize over time.

在我們的穀物市場和化學品業務部門的帶動下，商品部門的銷售量較去年同期成長。 NS 能夠實現這一成長得益於我們的客戶每天都可以信賴的服務產品。你們聽過我全年都在談論我們對商品業務的關注，並且為客戶帶來的價值增加是顯而易見的，因為這是過去 38 個季度中商品 RPU 減去燃料同比增長的第 37 個季度。現在，颶風海倫影響了我們在東南部的某些商品業務，但我們預計，隨著受影響客戶的營運隨著時間的推移逐漸恢復正常，銷量將逐漸恢復。

Intermodal revenue grew 4% year-over-year this quarter as volume growth of 9% was offset by a 5% decline in RPU. Signet truck prices continue to pressure domestic intermodal rates and unfavorable mix trends continue with strong gains in international and domestic outpacing our premium market volumes in intermodal. The ILA strike negatively impacted our international volumes, but we expect the majority of this volume will be recovered in the months ahead.

本季多式聯運營收年增 4%，銷量成長 9% 被 RPU 下降 5% 所抵銷。 Signet 卡車價格繼續對國內多式聯運費率構成壓力，不利的混合趨勢持續存在，國際和國內多式聯運的強勁增長超過了我們的優質市場銷量。 ILA 罷工對我們的國際銷售產生了負面影響，但我們預計大部分銷售將在未來幾個月內恢復。

Finishing up here with coal, revenue declined 2% for the third quarter. Our year-over-year volumes finished up 11% and but declining export prices and unfavorable mix within the portfolio pushed down RPU by 11%. The coal business saw headwinds from easing export prices and challenged utility segment factors to include low natural gas prices, high stockpiles, and reduced demand in coal burning regions.

最後是煤炭，第三季營收下降了 2%。我們的銷量年增了 11%，但出口價格下降和產品組合內的不利組合導致 RPU 下降了 11%。煤炭業務面臨出口價格放寬帶來的阻力，以及公用事業部門的挑戰，包括天然氣價格低、庫存高以及燃煤地區需求減少等。

Turning to the next slide. Let's talk through our outlook for the remainder of the year. Overall, we expect our markets to experience tempered growth, albeit with some discrete headwinds from market trajectory and mix impacts on certain sectors. It's very important to note that the impact of fuel price normalization from the 2022 historic highs will remain the single largest revenue headwind that we face, and this has been true all year long.

轉到下一張投影片。讓我們談談對今年剩餘時間的展望。總體而言，我們預計我們的市場將經歷溫和的成長，儘管市場軌跡會帶來一些離散的阻力以及對某些行業的混合影響。值得注意的是，燃油價格從 2022 年歷史高點正常化的影響仍將是我們面臨的最大收入阻力，而且全年都是如此。

We expect our merchandise business to see continued but today growth supported by easing interest rates and ongoing infrastructure projects. Although sector-specific headwinds in various sectors in our automotive and metals markets, will pose challenges. Intermodal will see strong demand driven by our dependable service product by new bid awards and import export demand despite the interruptions caused by the ILA strike that ended on October 3. We're prepared to handle international shipments that were delayed during that interruption. Our outlook for coal is really a mixed bag as seaborne pricing for met coal is trending downward. On the other hand, we're seeing positive momentum in the thermal export markets.

我們預計我們的商品業務將在利率寬鬆和正在進行的基礎設施項目的支持下持續成長。儘管汽車和金屬市場各行業的特定產業逆風將帶來挑戰。儘管10 月3 日結束的ILA 罷工造成了中斷，但由於我們可靠的服務產品、新的投標和進出口需求，聯運仍將看到強勁的需求。貨運。我們對煤炭的前景確實是好壞參半，因為冶金煤的海運價格呈現下降趨勢。另一方面，我們看到熱力出口市場的積極勢頭。

And finally, in the wake of the destruction caused by Hurricane Helane, we stand ready to support our customers and handle the goods and products needed to help the affected regions rebuild. And as always, I will end with a word of thanks to our customers for their partnership and their support.

最後，在颶風海蘭造成破壞之後，我們隨時準備為我們的客戶提供支持，並處理幫助受影響地區重建所需的貨物和產品。像往常一樣，我最後要感謝我們的客戶的合作和支持。

With that, I'll welcome Jason Zampi to the call to talk about our financial results. Thank you.

接下來，我將歡迎 Jason Zampi 參加電話會議，談論我們的財務表現。謝謝。

Thanks, Ed. I'll start with a reconciliation of our GAAP results on slide 13, and I wanted to call out three items here in the quarter. First, the impacts from the Eastern Ohio incident are itemized as they have been for the last several quarters. I'd highlight that our insurance recoveries outpaced the incremental cost of the incident for the second quarter in a row. That brings the total cumulative amount of insurance recoveries to over $650 million.

謝謝，艾德。我將首先在投影片 13 上對我們的 GAAP 結果進行核對，我想在此指出本季度的三項內容。首先，按照過去幾季的情況，逐項列出了俄亥俄州東部事件的影響。我要強調的是，我們的保險賠償連續第二季超過了事件的增量成本。這使得保險賠償總額累計超過 6.5 億美元。

The other two items are the result of specific actions we executed to further our strategic objectives including an unrealistic focus on productivity and asset utilization. As we previewed last quarter, we completed two significant line sales, an example of us continuing to simplify the network and generate cash flows. These two sales resulted in $380 million of gains and generated almost $400 million of cash.

另外兩項是我們為推進策略目標而採取的具體行動的結果，包括對生產力和資產利用率的不切實際的關注。正如我們上季度預覽的那樣，我們完成了兩項重要的線路銷售，這是我們繼續簡化網路和產生現金流的一個例子。這兩筆銷售帶來了 3.8 億美元的收益，並產生了近 4 億美元的現金。

Additionally, under the leadership of our new CIO, Anil Bot, who has a relentless focus on technology delivery and ROI generation, we rationalized certain IT projects that were not generating the desired benefits. That, coupled with the discontinuance of our Triple Crown roadrailer assets, combined to total $60 million in restructuring costs.

此外，在新任資訊長 Anil Bot 的領導下，他一直專注於技術交付和投資回報率生成，我們對某些未產生預期效益的 IT 專案進行了合理化調整。再加上我們 Triple Crown 公路鐵路資產的終止，重組成本總計達 6,000 萬美元。

Adjusting for these items, OR for the quarter was $63.4 million and EPS totaled $3.25. That's a 650 basis point improvement in our adjusted OR since the first quarter, all while providing a safe, reliable, resilient service product, generating productivity and growing the business.

在這些項目進行調整後，本季的 OR 為 6,340 萬美元，EPS 總計為 3.25 美元。自第一季以來，我們調整後的 OR 提高了 650 個基點，同時提供安全、可靠、有彈性的服務產品，提高生產力並發展業務。

Looking at these adjusted results compared to last year and last quarter on slide 14, and you'll note that the year-over-year revenue was up $80 million due to strong volume growth, partially offset by RPU pressures. Operating expenses were down $118 million due primarily to fuel prices and productivity. All combined, these drove 570 basis points of OR improvement.

查看幻燈片 14 上與去年和上季度相比的調整後結果，您會發現，由於銷量強勁增長，同比收入增長了 8000 萬美元，但 RPU 壓力部分抵消了這一影響。營運費用減少了 1.18 億美元，這主要是由於燃料價格和生產力的影響。總而言之，這些因素使 OR 改善了 570 個基點。

From a sequential perspective, revenue is relatively flat. However, we have continued to build off the strong momentum from our productivity and cost reduction initiatives with expenses down $47 million and a 170 basis point improvement in OR.

從環比來看，營收相對持平。然而，我們繼續透過生產力和成本削減計劃來增強強勁勢頭，費用減少了 4,700 萬美元，OR 提高了 170 個基點。

Drilling into these sequential variances starting with revenue on slide 15. You'll note that the strength in coal and intermodal volumes drove an overall 3% volume increase over last quarter. Unfavorable mix, pricing pressures, particularly within the export coal market and lower fuel surcharge revenues drove ARPU lower, leading to overall revenue that was essentially flat with the second quarter.

從幻燈片 15 上的收入開始深入研究這些連續差異。不利的組合、定價壓力（尤其是出口煤炭市場的價格壓力）以及燃油附加費收入的下降導致 ARPU 下降，導致整體收入與第二季度基本持平。

Slide 16 breaks down the $47 million sequential improvement in expenses. The transformative actions delivered by John and his team are benefiting our P&L. And you'll see that through record fuel efficiency, strong labor productivity with T&E count down 3% on 3% more volume, and decreases in rents due to better network fluidity. While the results of our initiatives to drive down purchase services are also taking hold, all more than offsetting the wage inflation headwind that we called out last quarter.

投影片 16 詳細列出了 4700 萬美元的支出環比改善情況。約翰和他的團隊採取的變革行動正在使我們的損益受益。您會發現，透過創紀錄的燃油效率，T&E 的強勁勞動生產力在數量增加 3% 的情況下下降了 3%，並且由於網路流動性更好而導致租金下降。雖然我們減少購買服務的措施也取得了成效，但這完全抵銷了我們上季指出的薪資通膨阻力。

These strong third quarter results and our operational momentum position us well to achieve our second half and full year targets. We do expect a sequential uptick in OR as we move into the fourth quarter from normal seasonality, including headwinds that we are expecting on the top line, but also due to additional cleanup costs from Hurricane Helene's aftermath.

這些強勁的第三季業績和我們的營運勢頭使我們能夠很好地實現下半年和全年的目標。我們確實預計，隨著我們從正常季節性進入第四季度，OR 將會連續上升，包括我們預計在營收方面遇到的逆風，但也由於颶風海倫後果造成的額外清理成本。

Going forward, we are confident in our ability to continue to improve margins that will generate shareholder value. And the $400 million in cash generated from the line sales along with our goal of reducing CapEx as we move into 2025 will help with much needed balance sheet repair.

展望未來，我們對持續提高利潤率、創造股東價值的能力充滿信心。產品線銷售產生的 4 億美元現金以及我們在進入 2025 年時減少資本支出的目標將有助於修復急需的資產負債表。

Mark, I'll hand it back to you.

馬克，我會把它還給你。

Thanks, Jason. We are proud of our results in the quarter. Let me summarize some of what you just heard. First, we drove improvements in safety in the quarter despite volume increases and the significant weather events.

謝謝，傑森。我們對本季的業績感到自豪。讓我總結一下您剛才聽到的一些內容。首先，儘管銷售量增加和發生了重大天氣事件，但我們在本季推動了安全性的改進。

Second, we leveraged attrition in the quarter while handling robust volume growth resulting in productivity gains while not compromising service.

其次，我們在本季利用了人員流失，同時處理了強勁的銷售成長，從而在不影響服務的情況下提高了生產力。

Third, we delivered strong operational resiliency recovering service quickly following numerous disruptive weather events with Helen being the most severe.

第三，在多次破壞性天氣事件（其中海倫事件最為嚴重）之後，我們迅速提供了強大的營運彈性復原服務。

Fourth, we executed upon major line sales that we signaled last quarter providing meaningful cash proceeds that will help us accelerate balance sheet repair.

第四，我們執行了上季表示的主要產品線銷售，提供了有意義的現金收益，這將有助於我們加速資產負債表修復。

Finally, we delivered strong financial results in the third quarter, even with the volume pressures in the last eight days of September and we are on track for our second half and full year OR commitments, even if the full year revenue falls a little short of our guidance, which is to be up roughly 1%.

最後，即使在 9 月最後八天的銷售壓力下，我們在第三季度仍取得了強勁的財務業績，並且我們正在按計劃實現下半年和全年 OR 承諾，即使全年收入略低於預期我們的指導意見是上漲約1%。

So with that, let's open it up to questions.

那麼，讓我們提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo,

（操作員說明）Chris Wetherbee，富國銀行，

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Maybe we could start with the sort of the short term where you left off. Just wanted to get a sense of maybe how you think about the progress that you've made and how you can carry that into the fourth quarter? I know you talked about the second half guide specifically around the operating ratio. I want to give them maybe a little bit -- drill down a little bit deeper on maybe how that impacts in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝。早安.也許我們可以從你上次中斷的短期專案開始。只是想了解您如何看待所取得的進展以及如何將其延續到第四季度？我知道您特別談到了下半年的營運比率。我想給他們一些資訊——更深入地了解這對第四季的影響。

Thanks, Chris. This is Mark. Yeah, we've got really great momentum right now on the cost side. John can talk about that in a second. I think right now, we feel really good about those things that we can control. Yeah, as we talked about in Laguna, we were getting a little bit concerned about the auto and steel markets and that's starting to really play out the way we previewed. So that's definitely going to be something we keep our eye on.

謝謝，克里斯。這是馬克。是的，我們現在在成本方面確實有很大的動力。約翰可以馬上討論這個問題。我認為現在，我們對那些我們可以控制的事情感覺非常好。是的，正如我們在拉古納談到的那樣，我們有點擔心汽車和鋼鐵市場，而這開始真正按照我們預覽的方式發揮作用。所以這肯定會成為我們關注的事情。

But generally speaking, intermodal is we expect to peak season. Intermodal should be good. Obviously, the port disruptions we don't know exactly when and how the volumes will manifest here in the fourth quarter. But generally, we feel really, really good about the way we go in the fourth quarter.

但整體來說，多式聯運是我們預期的旺季。聯運應該不錯。顯然，我們不知道第四季港口中斷的具體時間和方式。但總的來說，我們對第四季的表現感到非常非常好。

John, why don't you talk a little bit about the momentum we've got on the cost side and then add a little bit more on the revenue.

約翰，你為什麼不談談我們在成本方面的動力，然後再增加一點收入。

Yeah. Chris, great question. And I would say, I'm really pleased the way we exited Q3 on safety. We finished Q3 at 2.05 and we're into the quarter at $1.5 million. And as you know, in a precision railway environment when things are working in the rhythm they're supposed to. And first and foremost, from a safety perspective, you get a lot of momentum. And we're seeing that in the terminals. And our terminal dwell is continuing to improve. And that's being achieved not only through the terminal itself, but how we're looking at reduction in handlings and accelerating cars through terminals by extending schedules of trains.

是的。克里斯，好問題。我想說，我對我們安全退出第三季的方式感到非常高興。我們第三季的利潤為 2.05，本季的利潤為 150 萬美元。如您所知，在精密鐵路環境中，一切都按照預期的節奏進行。首先，從安全角度來看，你會獲得很大的動力。我們在航站樓中看到了這一點。我們的終端停留時間正在持續改善。這不僅是透過航站樓本身實現的，而且是我們如何透過延長火車時刻表來減少裝卸量並加速汽車通過航站樓的速度。

So the work complexity is coming down while the capability is increasing. And that's playing out in fuel, that's playing out in a lot of purchase and services that taxi reductions, et cetera. And now we're able to negotiate and structurally change some of our vendor agreements that put more discipline around those things as a result of how we're improving. So I would say those are some of the cost and then the puts are also as we use our resources better we're able to create more opportunities for Ed to sell into spot markets and increase even our permits.

因此，工作複雜性正在下降，而能力在增強。這體現在燃料方面，體現在許多購買和服務方面，例如計程車減少等等。現在，我們能夠談判並從結構上改變我們的一些供應商協議，這些協議由於我們的改進而對這些事情施加了更多的紀律。所以我想說，這些是一些成本，然後看跌期權也是隨著我們更好地利用我們的資源，我們能夠為埃德創造更多機會向現貨市場銷售，甚至增加我們的許可證。

So Ed, any color on that?

那麼艾德，有什麼顏色嗎？

Sure. Yeah. In the fourth quarter, we certainly expect to see continued growth in the intermodal product. both on the international side, but also on the domestic side. We see strong demand out there, and we've confirmed that with some of our key partners that we talk to every single day that they're seeing the same thing. So we're looking for a robust fourth quarter from intermodal. The only headwind there is going to be premium and those are pretty well-known headwinds in terms of the challenges that, that particular market is facing.

當然。是的。在第四季度，我們當然預期多式聯運產品將持續成長。無論是在國際方面，或是在國內方面。我們看到了強勁的需求，我們已經與我們每天交談的一些主要合作夥伴確認，他們也看到了同樣的情況。因此，我們期待多式聯運第四季表現強勁。唯一的阻力將是溢價，就該特定市場面臨的挑戰而言，這些都是眾所周知的阻力。

On the coal side, we see a lot of demand on export thermal. But let's be clear, seaborne prices for met are continuing to be a drag. And there's a lot of stockpile build on the domestic side. So there'll be some headwinds, some puts and takes. Mark's already talked about -- or excuse me, automotive and steel. We're keeping an eye on those. But we feel very good about our ability to capture every single opportunity that we're able to get in front of.

在煤炭方面，我們看到出口熱電的需求很大。但我們要明確的是，甲醇的海運價格仍然是個拖累。國內方面也有大量庫存。因此，將會有一些阻力、一些變化。馬克已經談到了——或者對不起，汽車和鋼鐵。我們正在密切關注這些。但我們對自己抓住每一個機會的能力感到非常滿意。

Thank you. Do you think that gets you into the 64%, 65% range for the fourth quarter, though, when you think about the operating ratio?

謝謝。不過，當您考慮營運比率時，您認為第四季的營運比率是否會達到 64% 至 65% 的範圍？

Jason?

傑森？

Yeah. So we really had a great quarter. We're confident in meeting the 64% to 65% operating guidance for the second half of the year that we talked about earlier. As we move into the fourth quarter, we are expecting a sequential uptick in the OR and just a couple of things to remember. First, we called out the fuel recoveries this quarter. We don't expect that to recur in the fourth to that same magnitude. But that's -- those recovery is really a great outcome of running a tight railroad in the disciplined processes that John has put into place. So that's a great outcome there.

是的。所以我們確實度過了一個很棒的季度。我們有信心實現我們之前談到的下半年 64% 至 65% 的營運指引。當我們進入第四季度時，我們預計 OR 會連續上升，並且需要記住一些事情。首先，我們公佈了本季的燃料回收情況。我們預計這種情況不會在第四次出現同樣的規模。但那是——這些復甦確實是在約翰制定的嚴格流程中嚴格管理鐵路的一個偉大成果。所以這是一個很好的結果。

Second, I'd say we're expecting a more normal seasonality. Historically, that's been around 100 basis points of headwind as you move from third to fourth quarter, and a lot of that is due to the revenue headwinds that Ed talked about. I'd also call out, we're able to close on about $20 million of land sales in both the second and third quarters. And as we've talked about, those are difficult to predict. So that could provide some sequential headwind.

其次，我想說我們預計會有一個更正常的季節性。從歷史上看，從第三季度到第四季度，逆風大約有 100 個基點，其中很大一部分是由於艾德談到的收入逆風。我還想指出，我們能夠在第二季和第三季完成約 2000 萬美元的土地銷售。正如我們所討論的，這些很難預測。因此，這可能會帶來一些連續的阻力。

And then finally, as we called out, we're also going to have to deal with the additional costs from some hurricane cleanup. So that -- just on the expense side, that's around $20 million. But offsetting all that, just on the good side, we've got a lot of operational momentum and really doing a great job here on the productivity front. So that's what gives us confidence to reaffirm that second half guidance.

最後，正如我們所呼籲的，我們還必須承擔一些颶風清理工作帶來的額外費用。因此，僅在費用方面，就約為 2000 萬美元。但抵消所有這些，從好的方面來說，我們有很大的營運動力，並且在生產力方面確實做得很好。因此，這讓我們有信心重申下半年的指引。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So maybe for Mark and Jason, can you just talk about the capital intensity of the business going forward? If locomotives off-line cars going offline at an increasing rate as well into storage? How do you see that going forward, you're rationalize with some other IT projects as well. So are you able to see a little bit lower capital intensity over the next couple of years? And how does that tie into your expectation to be back in the market buying back shares? Thank you.

嘿，早安。感謝您提出問題。那麼對於馬克和傑森來說，您能談談未來業務的資本強度嗎？如果機車離線汽車以越來越快的速度離線並進入儲存？您如何看待未來您也會對其他一些 IT 專案進行合理化？那麼，您是否能看到未來幾年資本密集度降低？這與您重返市場回購股票的預期有何關聯？謝謝。

Yeah. Great question, Brian. You really nailed the strategy here. I think with John taking more than 500 locomotives off-line, that allows us to really start to deploy capital elsewhere and actually constrain our capital to a large degree. And we brought in a nil to run the IT organization, and we've been reprioritizing and really reevaluating all the projects we have in the pipeline, and we're going to focus on a more concentrated portfolio of projects that are going to yield high returns, the fastest possible projects that we can work on to generate high returns.

是的。好問題，布萊恩。你真的把策略搞定了。我認為約翰讓 500 多台機車下線，這讓我們真正開始將資本部署到其他地方，實際上在很大程度上限制了我們的資本。我們引入了零人員來運營 IT 組織，我們一直在重新確定優先事項並真正重新評估我們正在醞釀中的所有項目，我們將專注於更集中的項目組合，這些項目將產生高收益回報，我們可以開展最快的項目來產生高回報。

So we fully expect that CapEx next year will come down. And obviously, with the line sales we have this year and the cash buildup that we expect to have toward the end of the year, we fully expect to be back in the market repurchasing shares to some modest level next year. Thanks for the question.

因此，我們完全預期明年的資本支出將會下降。顯然，根據我們今年的產品線銷售以及我們預計到年底的現金積累，我們完全預計明年將重返市場，將股票回購到一定的適度水平。謝謝你的提問。

Yeah, Mark, if I could just add. As far as locomotives are concerned, we're looking at pushing back as far as we can. Our capital commitments to locomotives. And you're right, converting that resilience railroading and the disciplined approach to resources allows us to redo all of those things and really look for capital investments that create value either in a niche area like our B3 for the warrior coal that we've got or other things that Ed might bring online and help us really achieve a faster, more precise service delivery against new business call.

是的，馬克，如果我可以補充的話。就機車而言，我們正在考慮盡可能地推遲。我們對機車的資本承諾。你是對的，將彈性鐵路和嚴格的資源方法轉變為我們能夠重做所有這些事情，並真正尋找能夠在利基領域創造價值的資本投資，例如我們擁有的戰士煤炭的 B3或Ed 可能會在線提供的其他東西，幫助我們真正針對新業務呼叫實現更快、更精確的服務交付。

But we're taking a really hard look at the IT projects that we've got working closely with Aneel, Mina and her team looking at the resource consumption are really driving that ability. So it's just -- it's most -- it's both OpEx and capital that we're attacking here.

但我們正在認真審視與 Aneel、Mina 和她的團隊密切合作的 IT 項目，並著眼於真正推動這種能力的資源消耗。所以，我們在這裡攻擊的只是──最重要的是──營運支出和資本。

Thank you, Brian, next question?

謝謝你，布萊恩，下一個問題？

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Hey, great. Good morning. And Mark and Jason, congrats on the new jobs. So Ed, volumes are starting off, it looks like down about 1.5% in carloads. I think you said you can rebound. Are you talking about getting to positive growth? Is there a level you would think we should throw out there in terms of catching up. And then in terms of pricing with coal benchmark pricing down and I guess looking at where we are today at just over 200 , could we see or would you expect pricing to be down double digits or not quite that level again?

嘿，太棒了。早安.馬克和傑森，恭喜你找到新工作。 Ed，銷量開始增加，整車載量似乎下降了約 1.5%。我想你說過你可以反彈。您是在談論實現正成長嗎？您認為我們應該放棄某個水平來追趕。然後就定價而言，煤炭基準定價下降，我想看看我們今天的價格剛剛超過 200，我們是否可以看到或您預計定價會下降兩位數，或者不會再次下降到這個水平？

Hi, Ken. I'll start with the last question first. I think we're going to see coal prices continue to drift lower. I don't think double digit, but we'll see. We're taking a very conservative approach to it here. And then on the question of overall volumes in the fourth quarter, we've seen a really nice catch up after the disruption from the port strike and from Helen and the areas that have recovered already.

嗨，肯。我先從最後一個問題開始。我認為我們將看到煤炭價格繼續走低。我不認為是兩位數，但我們拭目以待。我們在這裡採取非常保守的方法。然後，關於第四季度的總成交量問題，在港口罷工以及海倫和已經恢復的地區造成的干擾之後，我們看到了非常好的追趕。

And we feel very confident. And I think this is one thing that it's hard to get across on a call, but we feel very confident in our ability to recapture volume no matter where it comes from, whether it's continued West Coast imports or more East Coast flowing through in the wake of the strike.

我們感到非常有信心。我認為這是很難在電話中傳達的一件事，但我們對重新奪回銷量的能力非常有信心，無論它來自哪裡，無論是持續的西海岸進口還是更多的東海岸流經罷工的。

So you put that together with what I would call some opportunistic spot moves that we've been able to pick up in the third quarter that may continue in the fourth on the merchandise side. What the network is really doing right now, and John and his team are working really closely with us is we're really manufacturing a lot of capacity that we can deploy to be very agile.

因此，您將其與我所說的一些機會主義現貨走勢結合起來，我們在第三季度已經能夠採取這種行動，這些行動可能會在第四季度繼續在商品方面繼續下去。網路現在真正在做的事情，約翰和他的團隊正在與我們密切合作，我們正在製造大量的容量，我們可以非常敏捷地部署這些容量。

So you think about the rapid increase run-up in West Coast imports before the strike. And now we're much more fluid on the East Coast coming through. So I fully expect that whatever the market presents, we're going to be able to handle.

所以你想想罷工前西海岸進口的快速成長。現在我們在東海岸的經歷更加流暢。因此，我完全希望無論市場出現什麼情況，我們都能應付。

Thank you, next question please.

謝謝，請下一個問題。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So John, some strong labor productivity with volume up 7%, headcount down 3 what's the runway here? Is this an incremental opportunity as we look out to next year? Or at some point, does this get tougher?

嘿，謝謝。早安.那麼，約翰，勞動生產力強勁，產量增加了 7%，員工人數減少了 3，這裡的跑道是什麼？當我們展望明年時，這是一個增量機會嗎？或者在某個時候，這會變得更加困難嗎？

Well, Scott, I'm glad you recognize the work that our -- all of our team is doing, including our craft labor. They are really embracing our management and leadership style. And that's reflected in some of the CBAs there that we've got TAs against.

好吧，斯科特，我很高興你認可我們所有團隊正在做的工作，包括我們的手工勞動。他們真正接受我們的管理和領導風格。這在一些我們遭到 TA 反對的 CBA 中得到了體現。

I would say that labor productivity, we're just getting started on having a disciplined approach to our operations where we're looking at not just the head count, but how we -- how people are deployed and our train structures designing out handlings, designing out train stops and the elongating schedules allows us to increase the productivity of not only our people but also the resources like locomotives. And so I think these gains they're starting to really get traction and they'll continue to get traction.

我想說的是，在勞動生產力方面，我們剛開始對我們的營運採取嚴格的方法，我們不僅關注人數，還關注我們如何——如何部署人員以及我們的列車結構設計處理，設計火車站和延長時刻表不僅可以提高員工的生產力，還可以提高機車等資源的生產力。因此，我認為這些成果已經開始真正受到關注，並將繼續受到關注。

I really think that you can't underestimate the power of leadership and the power of the team. And you see our engagement with labor as being very collaborative and they're a major stakeholder in our PSR 2.0 application. Last month, we had over 65 labor leaders, including presidents of national governing bodies coming to Atlanta and talking about issues and really understanding what we're doing and embracing our philosophy on railroading.

我真的認為你不能低估領導的力量和團隊的力量。您會發現我們與勞工的合作非常融洽，他們是我們 PSR 2.0 應用程式的主要利害關係人。上個月，我們有超過 65 名勞工領袖，包括國家管理機構主席來到亞特蘭大，討論問題並真正理解我們正在做的事情並接受我們的鐵路理念。

And look, they had some really challenging questions. They had some different points of view. But we were able to work through those things and come out with a really cohesive perspective on what we need to go forward. So I would say that I don't want to put the burden on any particular group shoulders to bear. I think as a team, we're bearing a lot of discipline of change and the commitment to change and that's reflected in the women and men who work for us.

看，他們提出了一些非常具有挑戰性的問題。他們有一些不同的觀點。但我們能夠解決這些問題，並對我們需要前進的事情提出真正有凝聚力的觀點。所以我想說，我不想把負擔放在任何特定群體的肩上。我認為作為一個團隊，我們承受著許多變革的紀律和對變革的承諾，這反映在為我們工作的男女員工身上。

And as I've said, railroading is a tough business. It's a 365, 24/7. And when we're creating the environment where people feel that they're contributing and they feel fulfilled and what they do and who could be more fulfilled than contributing to the US economy the way we do. So I think the story is just starting to be written.

正如我所說，鐵路是一項艱難的事業。這是 365、24/7。當我們創造這樣的環境時，人們會感到自己正在做出貢獻，感到有成就感，他們所做的事情以及誰會比像我們這樣為美國經濟做出貢獻更有成就感。所以我認為這個故事才剛開始寫。

Thanks a lot. Next question?

多謝。下一個問題？

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

湯姆‧瓦德維茨，瑞銀集團。

Jason, I also wanted to say congratulations on the new roles. And John, really looks like you're having a great effect on the railroad. So congratulations on that as well. I wanted to see if I could ask you a bit about 2025. I know that's kind of probably tough given lack of visibility in markets and everything and pricing. But how do you think about the frame for '25 if you don't see improvement in some of the markets, right? It seems like industrial markets aren't getting better, maybe getting a little worse and you highlight automotive and metals.

傑森，我也想對新角色表示祝賀。約翰，看起來你確實對鐵路產生了很大的影響。所以也要恭喜你。我想看看是否可以向您詢問一些有關 2025 年的問題。但是，如果您沒有看到某些市場的改善，您如何看待 25 年的框架，對吧？工業市場似乎並沒有好轉，甚至可能變得更糟，您專注於汽車和金屬。

So is there enough productivity that you improve the margin in 2025? So obviously, high level -- is that reasonable, given John's commentary and momentum? Or if you don't see volume growth and some pickup in markets, is that kind of tough to do. Just wanted to see if you could offer any kind of high-level thoughts on how that -- those two kind of markets versus idiosyncratic network improvement, how to think about those two together? Thank you.

那麼，到 2025 年，生產力是否足以提高利潤率？很明顯，考慮到約翰的評論和勢頭，高水平是否合理？或者，如果你看不到銷售成長和市場回升，那是很難做到的。只是想看看您是否可以就這兩種市場與特殊的網路改進提供任何高層想法，如何將這兩者結合起來考慮？謝謝。

Hey, thank you, Tom. Great question. Let's bifurcate and just say that for the things we can control, which is cost, we've got a path. You will recall that we had committed to $250 million of cost reduction this year. We are on track to hit that number. We committed to another $150 million next year. So regardless of the economic environment, we committed to another $150 million next year in 2025. We're going to beat that. And John and I have spent a lot of time talking about this. I think there's a real opportunity to fast forward some cost reduction from 2026 into 2025. So we feel really, really confident there.

嘿，謝謝你，湯姆。很好的問題。讓我們分叉來說，對於我們可以控制的事情，即成本，我們有一條路徑。您可能還記得，我們​​今年已承諾削減 2.5 億美元的成本。我們有望達到這個數字。我們承諾明年再投入 1.5 億美元。因此，無論經濟環境如何，我們都承諾明年（即 2025 年）再投入 1.5 億美元。約翰和我花了很多時間討論這個問題。我認為從 2026 年到 2025 年確實有機會快速降低成本。

We can't control the top line and the economic environment, except to say that there is share recapture opportunity out there. So even if you have a softer market, we still have some idiosyncratic opportunities to recapture some share to help mitigate any pressure that might be there. So obviously, there's a limit to how much you can get in any given year. But given the product that John and his team are putting out there for service, we feel really, really good about the traction and momentum we have with our customer base.

我們無法控制營收和經濟環境，只能說有重新奪回股票的機會。因此，即使市場疲軟，我們仍然有一些特殊的機會重新奪回一些份額，以幫助減輕可能存在的壓力。顯然，在任何一年中您可以獲得的金額是有限的。但考慮到約翰和他的團隊正在推出的服務產品，我們對客戶群的吸引力和動力感到非常非常滿意。

John, do you want to talk any more about the confidence in our cost reduction next year?

約翰，您想再談談對我們明年降低成本的信心嗎？

I would say the confidence for me comes in the power of the team. And I look to my own experience through Hunter Camp back in the early 2000s and how Hunter encourage us to find the small wins and 1,000 small wins by an army of people who are believing in continuous improvement add up to a lot. And as we work through our investment in people and the almost 2,800 engagements that we're doing through the balance of the year, we're educating people on the specifics of PSR 2.01, how to really contribute to it.

我想說我的信心來自於團隊的力量。我回顧了自己在 2000 年代初透過亨特訓練營獲得的經驗，以及亨特如何鼓勵我們發現小胜利，而一群相信持續改進的人所取得的 1,000 個小胜利加起來意義重大。當我們完成對人員的投資以及我們在今年剩餘的時間裡進行的近 2,800 項活動時，我們正在教育人們了解 PSR 2.01 的具體細節，以及如何真正為其做出貢獻。

We're promoting the culture of change and really removing the mud as Hunter would say. And we're providing people the ability then to apply what we're teaching them on their jobs day to day. And that's really finding organic improvements.

正如亨特所說，我們正在促進變革文化並真正消除泥沼。我們為人們提供了將我們所教的知識應用到日常工作中的能力。這確實是尋找有機的改進。

And then, we've got our strategy where we're unlocking the value of the network. And that's the beauty of starting with two terminals like Chattanooga and Conway and really understanding how they work. And now, we're able to force multiply those learnings and engage real asset utility.

然後，我們制定了釋放網路價值的策略。這就是從查塔努加和康威這樣的兩個終端開始並真正了解它們如何工作的美妙之處。現在，我們能夠強制增加這些知識並參與實際資產效用。

And now, we're thinking -- rethinking how we use our assets. And we see that in some of our pool distributions and our asset management and the refinements. A great example is how we're moving the cars out of Detroit instead of stopping them in Toledo, and moving them over to Bellevue and then going to Elkhart we're able to repurpose a secondary yard and go right from Detroit right to Elkhart, removing assignments, removing car days, reducing our power locomotive fleet requirements.

現在，我們正在思考——重新思考我們如何使用我們的資產。我們在一些資金池分配、資產管理和改進中看到了這一點。一個很好的例子是，我們如何將汽車運出底特律，而不是將它們停在托萊多，然後將它們移至貝爾維尤，然後前往埃爾克哈特，我們能夠重新利用二級堆場，從底特律直接前往埃爾克哈特，取消任務，取消用車天數，減少我們的動力機車車隊需求。

And those ideas are coming from the field up. And so it's really taking hold -- is a long answer to say the story is just unfolding here. And as we invest in people, as we engage in clearing out the organizational mud and the case for change is still there. There's a lot to be fixed here. And I think we're reflecting --

這些想法都來自現場。所以它確實佔據了主導地位——這是一個很長的答案，說故事剛剛在這裡展開。當我們對人員進行投資時，當我們致力於清除組織中的泥沼時，變革的理由仍然存在。這裡有很多需要修復的地方。我認為我們正在反思——

Tom, when we put those targets out, they were targets. Now we're filling in that outline with real specific actions, and we're realizing that we were maybe a little modest in the targets that we saw in front of us because the actions now tallied a little bit more as we're putting together our 2025 number. So it feels good. Now Ed, do you have any thoughts on '25 outlook?

湯姆，當我們提出這些目標時，它們就是目標。現在，我們正在用實際的具體行動來填寫該大綱，並且我們意識到，我們對眼前看到的目標可能有點謙虛，因為當我們把這些行動放在一起時，現在的行動更加重要了我們的2025年數字。所以感覺很好。現在，Ed，您對 '25 的前景有什麼想法嗎？

Absolutely. And we're still working on what '25 looks like there's clearly a lot of lot of moving parts out there. But let's be clear about this. We're not sitting on our hands. We're not just waiting around to see what's going to happen.

絕對地。我們仍在研究「25」的樣子，顯然還有很多變化的部分。但我們要明確這一點。我們不會袖手旁觀。我們不只是等著看會發生什麼。

My team as well as John's are working together right now to build a service product that does one thing and that's produced service that you can count on delivered by people that you can trust every single day. And on top of that, we're working to build what I would consider to be a unique value proposition because of the technology that we're deploying at the customer level to make it very easy to do business with. That's a process change as well as some technology augmentation, but I think it's going to be a real differentiator in 2025. We look forward to the response from our customers on both counts.

我的團隊和約翰的團隊現在正在共同努力建立一種服務產品，該產品只做一件事，並且每天都會提供值得您信賴的服務。最重要的是，我們正在努力建立我認為獨特的價值主張，因為我們在客戶層面部署的技術使開展業務變得非常容易。這是流程的改變以及一些技術的增強，但我認為這將在 2025 年成為真正的差異化因素。

Thanks, Tom. Next question?

謝謝，湯姆。下一個問題？

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning. And thanks for taking the question. So Mark, congrats on the top seat here. But I guess a two-part question for me. First, structurally at Norfolk, is there any way you're looking at this organizationally that you'd like to see different at the company?

嘿，早安。感謝您提出問題。馬克，恭喜你獲得了最高席位。但我想對我來說這個問題分成兩個部分。首先，在諾福克的結構上，您是否希望在公司中看到不同的組織方式？

And then maybe following up from that discussion on 2025 OR, there was a lot of back and forth on guidance earlier this year with the proxy contest. So I think you guys had committed to 100 to 150 basis points of annual improvement for the next few years, but then also said maybe a sub-60 and three to four years of volume contributed. Is that still the right framework, especially within the context of the answer to that last question?

也許繼 2025 OR 的討論之後，今年早些時候的代理權競賽中就指導意見進行了很多反覆討論。所以我認為你們已經承諾在接下來的幾年裡每年提高 100 到 150 個基點，但隨後也表示也許低於 60 個基點和三到四年的產量有所貢獻。這仍然是正確的框架嗎，特別是在回答最後一個問題的背景下？

Yeah. I think starting with your second one, absolutely. We're still on track for that. And you remember the components, there were components of cost reduction there. And the 1 million to 150 million was really based on kind of a more modest top line outlook of a middling 2% to 3% type of top line growth. But then if we had a more traditional top line recovery, that would get us to the sub-60% in by the three- to four-year time window. So we stand by those guidance indicators.

是的。我想絕對從你的第二個開始。我們仍在朝著這個方向努力。你還記得這些組件，那裡有降低成本的組件。 100 萬至 1.5 億實際上是基於一種較為溫和的營收前景，即中等 2% 至 3% 的營收成長。但如果我們採用更傳統的營收復甦方式，那麼我們的營收將在三到四年的時間窗口內達到 60% 以下。因此，我們支持這些指導指標。

Now, with regard to structurally anything different. I think what I would tell you is we are on track. We've got some great momentum. The strategy at its core is exactly what we're going to stick to. And this really gets to about execution right now. And we have a really sound operating team that is executing upon the strategy to create network fluidity that will allow for a really great service product. And as we always said, with that great service product, it will enable growth. You started to see that play out last quarter and now again this quarter. We've got some idiosyncratic opportunities to grow, and Ed and his team have been capturing on it.

現在，在結構上有什麼不同。我想我要告訴你的是我們正在步入正軌。我們已經有了一些巨大的動力。這個策略的核心正是我們要堅持的。現在這確實涉及到執行力。我們擁有一支非常健全的營運團隊，正在執行創建網路流動性的策略，從而提供真正出色的服務產品。正如我們常說的那樣，憑藉出色的服務產品，它將促進成長。上個季度你就開始看到這種情況出現，本季又出現了這種情況。我們有一些特殊的成長機會，艾德和他的團隊一直在抓住它。

So that worked, and we told you that productivity is kind of the third leg of that strategy. And honestly, you also saw that play out in the third quarter. We had fallen out of balance with the strategy on productivity. We told you we were going to get back in balance, and we're well on our way to doing that with 570 basis points of OR improvement, thanks to a sprinkling of some volume here in this quarter, it was a real accelerant. But even the sequential improvement is very encouraging.

所以這很有效，我們告訴過你，生產力是這個策略的第三條腿。老實說，你也看到了第三季的表現。我們的生產力策略已經失去平衡。我們告訴過你，我們將恢復平衡，我們正在以 570 個基點的 OR 改進來實現這一目標，這要歸功於本季度的一些交易量，這是一個真正的促進劑。但即使是連續的改善也是非常令人鼓舞的。

So execution is what's key. And John and I talk about that a lot, and I kind of touched on it a little bit at Laguna I really embrace an operational excellence mindset coming from my background in industrial products. And I believe strongly that any good operation needs a quality type system, you can call it Six Sigma, you can call it ACE like we used to call it a mile company, which is achieving competitive excellence.

所以執行力才是關鍵。約翰和我經常談論這一點，我在拉古納也談過一點，我真的很擁護來自工業產品背景的卓越營運思維。我堅信，任何良好的營運都需要一個品質類型系統，你可以稱之為“六西格瑪”，你可以稱之為“ACE”，就像我們過去稱之為“英里公司”一樣，它正在實現卓越的競爭。

Either way, you've got to have really solid standard processes that are based on best practices. You've got to get those systematized so that everybody follows it. And when you have breakdowns in the process, you do relentless root cause analysis to identify where the problems are and then fix the standard processes so you can mistake proof going forward. That's this virtuous cycle that we have to get ourselves into.

無論哪種方式，您都必須擁有基於最佳實踐的真正可靠的標準流程。你必須將這些系統化，以便每個人都遵循。當流程出現故障時，您會進行不懈的根本原因分析，以確定問題出在哪裡，然後修復標準流程，以便您可以防止錯誤繼續發生。這就是我們必須進入的良性循環。

And the beauty is, when an operator like John and John's team, what you hear about -- there's a real resemblance to what I'm describing. In fact, when John talks about the war rooms, what do you think the war rooms are? Those are relentless root cause analysis. Every time they have an issue, the war room gets to work on it. They figure out what the root cause is, they fix it. So we are in lockstep on driving that culture and I'm really, really excited about that.

美妙之處在於，當像約翰和約翰的團隊這樣的操作員時，您所聽到的內容與我所描述的內容非常相似。事實上，當約翰談到作戰室時，你認為作戰室是什麼？這些都是不懈的根本原因分析。每當他們遇到問題時，作戰室都會著手解決。他們找出根本原因，然後解決它。因此，我們正在齊心協力推動這種文化，我對此感到非常非常興奮。

And then I think the other thing is, obviously, culturally, I want to continue to advance first, our safety culture, but also a real two-way communication. John touched upon that a couple of minutes ago as well, but a two-way communication where information flows up, not just down.

然後我認為另一件事顯然是文化上的，我想先繼續推進我們的安全文化，同時也是真正的雙向溝通。幾分鐘前約翰也談到了這一點，但這是一種雙向溝通，訊息向上流動，而不僅僅是向下流動。

A lot of the best ideas that come inside this railroad are from the people who are on the ground, whether that's in the marketing organization, with what's happening with our customer base, whether that's in the operations team like John just described, we have to create that environment where people are comfortable to speak of. And it's not just process stuff. It's not just ideas for improvement, but it's also concerns that they might have. So we're going to be really working on creating and fostering a better culture for two-way communication.

這條鐵路中的許多最佳想法都來自於當地的人們，無論是在行銷組織中，還是在我們的客戶群中，無論是在約翰剛才描述的營運團隊中，我們都必須創造人們可以輕鬆交談的環境。這不僅僅是流程的事情。這不僅是改進的想法，還包括他們可能的擔憂。因此，我們將真正致力於創造和培育更好的雙向溝通文化。

And then I would say, finally, Ed and I have been having a lot of conversations about really working a lot closer with our customer base to figure out exactly how we can serve them better to accelerate the share gains and the share recapture opportunities that are out there. So that's where I'd say the focus will be structurally going forward. And thanks a lot for the question, Brandon. Appreciate it. Next?

最後，我想說，艾德和我一直在進行很多對話，討論如何與我們的客戶群進行更密切的合作，以弄清楚我們如何才能更好地為他們服務，以加速份額增長和重新奪回份額的機會。所以我想說，重點將是結構性的向前發展。非常感謝布蘭登的提問。欣賞它。下一個？

Jonathan Chappell, Evercore.

喬納森·查佩爾，Evercore。

Thank you. Ed, on your market outlook, there's a lot more red and yellow than there is green. And you've talked about some of the headwinds there and maybe some more incremental -- you've also mentioned in some of these prior answers, spot market wins. So can you just maybe put a little bit more quantitative where you're winning, how much that is? If we look at a macro that's to industrial production growth. What's the realistic volume growth on the Norfolk Southern network as you're winning more than maybe the economy is giving you?

謝謝。艾德，在你的市場前景中，紅色和黃色比綠色多得多。您已經談到了那裡的一些不利因素，也許還有一些增量因素——您還在之前的一些答案中提到了現貨市場的勝利。那麼，您能否對您獲勝的情況進行更多的定量分析，即獲勝金額是多少？如果我們看宏觀的話，那就是工業生產成長。當您贏得的收益超過經濟為您帶來的收益時，諾福克南方網路的實際銷售成長是多少？

Yeah. I would point -- it's pretty easy. I would point to our ag markets. We're -- in the third quarter, we were able to take advantage of some market dislocations as well as some, what I would call, true spot opportunities that frankly, in prior quarters, we could never have addressed because we couldn't generate the additional capacity to do that nor the operational agility to really respond in a way that the market take advantage of.

是的。我想說——這很容易。我想指出我們的農業市場。在第三季度，我們能夠利用一些市場混亂以及一些我所說的真正的現貨機會，坦白說，在前幾個季度，我們永遠無法解決這些機會，因為我們無法解決這些問題。來做到這一點，也沒有產生以市場利用的方式真正反應的營運彈性。

But this last quarter, we have, I would say, very successfully executed a number of those moves, whether it's soybeans, whether it's corn, whether it's grain, that have helped offset some of the weakness that we've seen in some of the other industrial markets, where we're fulfilling all the capacity needs that our customers have, but they simply don't have that much need right now. And I would point toward the deceleration in some of our auto markets. And there's some idiosyncratic phenomenon going on there with regard to whether it's quality holds or specific plant outages.

但我想說，上個季度，我們非常成功地執行了其中的一些舉措，無論是大豆、玉米還是穀物，都有助於抵消我們在一些農產品中看到的一些疲軟。正在滿足客戶的所有產能需求，但他們現在根本沒有那麼多需求。我想指出我們的一些汽車市場的減速。無論是品質問題還是特定工廠停運，那裡都存在一些特殊現象。

But you think about intermodal and look at the very solid growth, both on the domestic and international side and the ability that our network has had to not only absorb that growth but also produce those spot wins that I'm talking about here, which really are, again, opportunities that we would not have been able to take advantage of in prior quarters. I would attribute part of our ongoing agility improvement to our reservation system on the intermodal side.

但你想想多式聯運，看看國內和國際方面非常穩健的增長，以及我們的網絡不僅有能力吸收這種增長，而且還能產生我在這裡談論的那些現貨勝利，這真的這又是我們在前幾季無法利用的機會。我將我們持續的敏捷性改進部分歸功於我們多式聯運方面的預訂系統。

And we're in the early innings of that, but I really think that over time, and John may want to comment on it. But over time, the feedback we're getting from our customers is it's going to help them know that they've got a ride on a train on a specific day, which allows them to plan and their customers plan and allows us to make some very important operational decisions that help us be not only more efficient but more reliable for our customers.

我們正處於早期階段，但我真的認為隨著時間的推移，約翰可能想對此發表評論。但隨著時間的推移，我們從客戶那裡得到的反饋將幫助他們知道他們在特定的一天乘坐了火車，這使他們能夠制定計劃，他們的客戶也能製定計劃，並允許我們做出一些調整非常重要的營運決策，不僅幫助我們提高效率，也讓客戶更加可靠。

Yeah. And I would agree. And while it's early days in the reservation system, I'm really confident that as we work through this, our customers are going to enjoy the discipline that brings to our terminals because they've been a part of its development. And what I'm excited about is the opportunity to add 100, 200, 300, 500,n1,000 feet to our intermodal trains or existing trains as we create the discipline smoothing out our network through the rest of the year and into next year and then being able to really project what our true capacity is as far as that growth because I think we're just on the cusp of of really hitting our stroke on long trains and bringing on new business at very low incremental costs.

是的。我同意。雖然預訂系統還處於早期階段，但我非常有信心，當我們解決這個問題時，我們的客戶將享受我們航站樓帶來的紀律，因為他們一直是其發展的一部分。令我興奮的是，我們有機會在我們的聯運列車或現有列車上增加100、200、300、500、n1,000 英尺，因為我們正在製定規則，使我們的網絡在今年剩餘時間和明年改變得更順暢然後能夠真正預測我們的成長能力，因為我認為我們正處於真正在長途列車上達到目標並以非常低的增量成本帶來新業務的風口浪尖。

Thanks, John. Next question, please?

謝謝，約翰。請下一個問題？

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫考夫曼，垂直研究夥伴。

Good morning, everybody. And thank you for squeezing me in. Congratulations also to Mark and Jason. I just want to go a different direction. I know there's some things you probably can't talk about with the labor agreements. But John, can you talk about what is going to make a difference for what you're trying to achieve in these labor agreements that were reached fairly run out for ratification, so you may not want to discuss some things. But just kind of talk about what's important for you to hit your targets with these new labor deals?

大家早安。感謝您邀請我加入。我只是想走一個不同的方向。我知道有些事情你可能不能透過勞動協定來談論。但是約翰，你能談談什麼會對你在這些勞工協議中試圖實現的目標產生影響嗎？但是，請談談對於您透過這些新的勞工協議實現目標而言，什麼是重要的？

Yeah. Thank you for that question. And it is a really good question. And coming from both the craft and from organized labor in the early days of my career, I really appreciate having clarity on the future as far as the payment structures and the discipline around what my CBA looks like.

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題。這是一個非常好的問題。在我職業生涯的早期，我來自於手藝和有組織的勞工，我真的很高興能夠清楚地了解未來的支付結構和圍繞我的 CBA 的紀律。

So I think first, that extending that confidence to our workforce and predictability and how they can budget their own households and their own work schedules is really important. And that cascades then into our being able to model from the pricing and from the predictability with our customers.

因此，我認為首先，將這種信心擴展到我們的勞動力和可預測性以及他們如何預算自己的家庭和自己的工作時間表非常重要。然後，我們能夠根據定價和客戶的可預測性進行建模。

And third, -- I think it's very complementary to what we're trying to achieve in PSR 2.0. And that's a really disciplined service safety and really delivering value for our customers. And that discretionary effort that we're getting from our rent trade crews and our operating employees is really allowing us to optimize the value of our network, build a team, a team that's inclusive of every one of the 20,000 people who work here and contribute to the value that we're creating and that leadership and developing skills and capabilities is just going to help us to enhance a great product already.

第三，我認為這與我們在 PSR 2.0 中試圖實現的目標非常互補。這是真正嚴格的服務安全，真正為我們的客戶創造價值。我們從租賃貿易人員和營運員工那裡得到的可自由支配的努力確實使我們能夠優化我們網路的價值，建立一個團隊，一個包容在這裡工作並做出貢獻的 20,000 名員工的團隊。價值以及領導力和發展技能和能力將幫助我們增強出色的產品。

And I think as well, then that allows us to really create a new blueprint and unlock the bigger rocks, that we need to, so that we move the network further along. So it's a win-win. And I know from my experience, there's nothing you can put a price tag on that discretionary effort.

我也認為，這使我們能夠真正創建一個新的藍圖並解鎖我們需要的更大的岩石，以便我們進一步推動網路發展。所以這是雙贏的。根據我的經驗，我知道，你無法為這種隨意的努力貼上價格標籤。

Thanks a lot, Jeff. Next question?

非常感謝，傑夫。下一個問題？

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah. Good morning. I just want to talk about network resiliency, if I could. You had some pretty strong volumes in the third quarter. So I'm just sort of curious what's working well on resiliency, what still needs to improve really just to get a sense what needs to be done to ensure the network can run fluidly for the foreseeable future, so you could do the things you're talking about like taking share off the highway, et cetera.

是的。早安.如果可以的話，我只想談談網路彈性。第三季的銷售相當強勁。所以我只是好奇什麼在彈性方面效果很好，什麼仍然需要改進，只是為了了解需要做什麼來確保網絡在可預見的未來能夠流暢運行，這樣你就可以做你想做的事情我們談論的是從高速公路上奪走份額等等。

Well, I would say, again, I would get back to we're trying to do things better in every area of the business. And in order to do that, we have to bring up our efforts and our capabilities to a completely another level. But I would say the six things that we focus on, the network health our asset efficiencies and our customer-facing metrics are the guiding metrics that we're going to use to drive that.

好吧，我想再說一遍，我會回到我們正在努力在業務的每個領域做得更好的問題。為了做到這一點，我們必須將我們的努力和我們的能力提升到一個完全不同的水平。但我想說的是，我們關注的六件事，網路健康狀況、資產效率和麵向客戶的指標是我們將用來推動這一目標的指導指標。

And as we continue to improve those things under the hood, there are going to be a lot of ability to put more discipline, engineer out inefficiencies and engineer in optimization, things like the reservation system that are just going to unlock so much discipline around our terminals and intermodal as our growth and to have better discipline around that just gives us such an advantage as the market comes roaring back in the US economy and as trucks tighten up, we'll be able to really leverage from a pricing perspective. And I think Ed's talked about that numerous times.

隨著我們繼續改進這些底層的東西，將會有很多能力來製定更多的紀律，消除效率低下的問題並進行優化，像預訂系統這樣的事情將會在我們的周圍釋放如此多的紀律。著我們的成長，碼頭和多式聯運的發展以及更好的紀律只會給我們帶來這樣的優勢，因為市場在美國經濟中強勁復甦，並且隨著卡車的緊張，我們將能夠從定價的角度真正發揮槓桿作用。我想艾德已經多次談到這一點。

Jordan, I think what John has done decongesting the terminals and networks, it goes a long way to improving resiliency. I mean laying down 500 locomotives over 8,000 cars since Q1. And you create a lot more fluidity in the network. And when you add little bumps in the road, you have less congestion to hold you back from recovery. So that, I think, key and critical.

喬丹，我認為約翰所做的工作緩解了終端和網路的擁塞，這對提高彈性大有幫助。我的意思是自第一季以來鋪設了 500 台機車，超過 8,000 節車廂。而你在網路中創造了更多的流動性。當你在道路上增加一些小顛簸時，阻礙你恢復的擁塞就會減少。因此，我認為這是關鍵且關鍵的。

And you saw it play out here in the third quarter following these storms. I would tell you a year ago, some of the events that we saw in the quarter probably would have set us back three months. okay? But we were back within a week and now we're actually at record network speeds and load wells. So it's really remarkable. And I do actually just want to refute the notion that resiliency is about retaining costs. In fact, we've achieved resiliency this quarter while lowering costs. So it's a good news story. We seem to have a good model in place here. Thanks for the question, Jordan. Next?

你在這些風暴之後的第三季度看到了它的上演。我會在一年前告訴你，我們在本季看到的一些事件可能會讓我們倒退三個月。好的？但我們在一周內就回來了，現在我們實際上已經達到了創紀錄的網路速度和負載情況。所以這真的很了不起。事實上，我只是想反駁「彈性就是保留成本」的觀點。事實上，本季我們在降低成本的同時實現了彈性。所以這是一個好消息。我們似乎已經有了一個很好的模型。謝謝你的提問，喬丹。下一個？

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the color on ‘25 on the productivity actions. But with that to drop through to the bottom line, how much pricing do you need to counter general inflation for next year?

謝謝。大家早安。感謝您在 25 號生產力行動中使用顏色。但如果要降到底線，明年需要多少定價才能應付整體通膨？

We -- thank you, Ravi, by the way. We've had a very successful year so far in terms of being able to price to the value of our service and that value is increasing as the year goes on. And we're very confident that we're going to finish up the year in a strong position. Going in '25, we continue to believe that we're going to outpace inflation in all of our major markets.

順便說一下，我們－－謝謝你，拉維。到目前為止，我們在能夠根據服務價值定價方面度過了非常成功的一年，隨著時間的推移，價值正在增加。我們非常有信心在今年結束時保持強勢地位。進入 25 年，我們仍然相信所有主要市場的通膨速度都將超過。

Now, commodity prices like seaborne coal probably be a headwind. We'll see how that evolves in '25. But when you think about our core product and the value of the service that we're offering, it's increasing and our customers are saving money at the same time. So it's a powerful combination.

現在，海運煤炭等大宗商品價格可能是一個阻力。我們將在 25 年看到這種情況如何發展。但當你想到我們的核心產品和我們提供的服務的價值時，你會發現它不斷增加，同時我們的客戶也在節省金錢。所以這是一個強大的組合。

You have to think of it, Ravi, in the elements when you talk about pricing, you can't talk about it as one topic, right?

拉維，你必須想一想，當你談論定價時，你不能把它作為一個話題來談論，對吧？

Merchandise, as I just said, we feel really good, really strong service helps as a good backdrop there as those inflation. So the model is intact. I think intermodal is going to be somewhat dependent on what happens with spot truck pricing. Clearly, we seem to have found the bottom. The question is when does it start coming off the floor here. And yes, we have other commodity groups that follow indices that we don't control, obviously, in seaborne met being a big one.

商品，正如我剛才所說，我們感覺非常好，非常強大的服務有助於作為通貨膨脹的良好背景。所以模型完好無損。我認為多式聯運將在一定程度上取決於現貨卡車定價的情況​​。顯然，我們似乎已經找到了底部。問題是它什麼時候開始從這裡的地板上掉下來。是的，我們還有其他商品類別遵循我們無法控制的指數，顯然，在海運方面，這是一個很大的指標。

So -- but I think for those areas, like particularly merchandise in 2025, models intact, we feel really good. Thank you. Appreciate the question. Let's try to get another couple in.

所以，但我認為對於這些領域，尤其是 2025 年的商品，模型完好無損，我們感覺非常好。謝謝。感謝這個問題。我們試著讓另一對夫婦進來吧。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

大衛‧佛農，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning, guys. And congrats to the new roles. Congrats to the new roles. So maybe just kind of building off that question around the seaborne met market in 2025. Ed, you've been around this business a long time. What do you think about the US's role in terms of the export markets if we see a lower price correction. Are you worried just -- could you kind of maybe shape the price headwind that might manifest on a slightly weaker market for Norfolk into next year?

早安，夥計們。並祝賀新角色。祝賀新角色。因此，也許只是圍繞 2025 年海運氣象市場提出這個問題。如果我們看到較低的價格調整，您如何看待美國在出口市場中扮演的角色？您是否擔心——您能否塑造諾福克明年可能出現的稍微疲軟的市場上出現的價格逆風？

And then kind of help us understand whether you're worried about also sort of like overall aggregate volume demand on the export markets for 2025?

然後幫助我們了解您是否也擔心 2025 年出口市場的整體總需求量？

I'm a little bit readier than to get a lot into '25 because we're still building our view of that particular dimension. But I will tell you -- the US has remained remarkably competitive over time. I think we're going to continue to do that, particularly when I think about export thermals, we're in a very good spot in terms of demand. I expect that to generally continue.

我比 25 年更願意做很多事情，因為我們仍在建構對那個特定維度的看法。但我會告訴你——隨著時間的推移，美國一直保持著顯著的競爭力。我認為我們將繼續這樣做，特別是當我考慮出口熱氣流時，我們在需求方面處於非常好的位置。我預計這種情況將普遍持續下去。

And China is going to determine a lot about what happens with export met demand. There's a tremendous amount of geopolitical uncertainty that's driving a lot of commodity prices, driving a lot of energy prices. But we've got our weather eye on it, and we are fully prepared and capable of delivering the tonnage of our customers around the globe on need.

中國將在很大程度上決定出口滿足需求時會發生什麼。巨大的地緣政治不確定性推動了大宗商品價格和能源價格的上漲。但我們已經做好了充分準備，並且有能力根據需要向全球客戶提供噸位的貨物。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question, please?

請下一個問題？

Ben Nolan, Stifel.

本諾蘭，史蒂菲爾。

I appreciate you guys. I was just going to ask, you talked a little bit on the intermodal side that it feels like maybe it's bottoming. And specifically around -- and appreciating that the trucking market is still really challenged. Are you starting to see any green shoots on the premium intermodal at all? Or is that not yet the place where we are?

我很感激你們。我只是想問，你在聯運方面談了一點，感覺可能已經觸底了。特別是——並且認識到卡車運輸市場仍然面臨著真正的挑戰。您是否開始看到優質多式聯運的萌芽？或者那還不是我們現在所在的地方？

On the premium side, there's still a lot of headwinds out there emanating from the highway generally. We are seeing -- I mean, you got to look at it from a fairly substantial distance, but we are seeing truck utilization head up. And I think we're close to the 10-year average now, and I think we're going to trend above it. You look at the total number of motor carriers that are out there, it's declining slowly. But both those things, along with feedback that we're getting from our key partners like J.B. Hunt and Hub Group are telling us that we're reaching a point where I fully expect that pricing is going to eventually inflect.

在高端市場方面，高速公路整體上仍存在著許多阻力。我們看到——我的意思是，你必須從相當遠的距離來看它，但我們看到卡車利用率正在上升。我認為我們現在已經接近 10 年平均水平，而且我認為我們的趨勢將會高於它。你看看汽車運輸公司的總數，它正在緩慢下降。但這兩件事，再加上我們從 J.B. Hunt 和 Hub Group 等主要合作夥伴那裡得到的回饋，都告訴我們，我們已經達到了一個我完全預期定價最終會改變的地步。

I do think we're around the bottom now, and I have Phil at least somewhat confident knocking on the table here that that's true. Premium is a different story. We'll see how that evolves. What we are focused on is making sure that we're delivering exactly the product that, that particular segment needs.

我確實認為我們現在已經處於底部，而且我至少讓菲爾有信心在這裡敲桌子，這是真的。高級版則是另一回事。我們將看看情況如何發展。我們專注於確保我們提供的產品正是特定細分市場所需的。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

That brings us to the end. Look, I want to thank everyone for your questions, and we look forward to talking to you all throughout the quarter. Have a great day. Thank you.

這就是我們的結論。我想感謝大家提出的問題，我們期待在整個季度與大家交談。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。