使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to NRG Energy, Inc.'s second quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
大家好,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 NRG Energy, Inc. 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Brendan Mulhern, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者,投資人關係主管 Brendan Mulhern。請開始。
Brendan Mulhern - Investor Relations
Brendan Mulhern - Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to NRG Energy's second quarter 2026 earnings call. This morning's call is being broadcast live over the phone and via webcast. The webcast presentation and earnings release can be located in the Investors section of our website at www.nrg.com under Presentations and Webcast.
謝謝。各位早安,歡迎參加 NRG Energy 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天上午的會議將透過電話及網路直播同步進行。網路直播簡報與財報新聞稿可於我們網站 www.nrg.com 的「投資人」專區中,在「簡報與網路直播」項下查閱。
Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, which are based upon assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events, except as required by law.
請注意,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,係基於我們截至今日認為合理的假設。實際結果可能有重大差異。我們敦促各位查閱今日簡報中的安全港聲明,以及我們向 SEC 提交文件中的風險因素。除法律要求外,我們不承擔因未來事件而更新這些陳述的任何義務。
In addition, we'll refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings release and the non-GAAP reconciliations and supplemental data file located in the Investors section of our website.
此外,我們將同時提及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。有關我們的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標及其與最直接可比 GAAP 指標之調節資訊,請參閱我們的財報新聞稿,以及位於網站「投資人」專區的非 GAAP 調節表與補充資料檔。
With that, I will now turn the call over to Robert Gaudette, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer.
接下來,我將把電話會議交給 NRG 總裁兼執行長 Robert Gaudette。
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. From the beginning, we've been focused on serving the next wave of power demand the right way. For the largest new loads, new demand should be matched with new generation with the customer supporting the investment. That's how growth at this scale should work. It protects existing customers, strengthens the grid and creates durable value for the communities we serve and for our shareholders.
各位早安,感謝各位加入。從一開始,我們就專注於以正確的方式服務下一波電力需求。對於最大的新負載,新需求應以新增發電來匹配,並由客戶支持相關投資。這就是如此規模的成長應有的運作方式。它能保護既有客戶、強化電網,並為我們服務的社區與股東創造可持續的價值。
The developments in Texas over the last 24 hours reinforce why that approach matters. States want the economic growth that data centers can bring, but they also expect new demand to bring new supply, support the infrastructure it requires and strengthen, not strain the power systems and the communities that make it possible.
過去 24 小時德州的發展,再次凸顯這種做法的重要性。各州希望資料中心帶來的經濟成長,但也期望新增需求能帶來新增供給、支撐所需基礎設施,並強化而非加重電力系統與使其成為可能的社區負擔。
The environment has changed. Our strategy has not. In fact, the direction of policy is moving toward the model we've been building from the beginning. We have the commercial structure, the equipment and the capabilities to deliver it at scale. Today, we'll walk you through the commercial framework we are pursuing, the 1.2 gigawatt project advancing under it and the broader opportunity in front of us.
環境已經改變。我們的策略沒有改變。事實上,政策方向正朝向我們自一開始就建立的模式前進。我們具備商業架構、設備與能力,能以規模化方式交付。今天,我們將帶各位了解我們正在推進的商業框架、在該框架下前進的 1.2 吉瓦專案,以及我們面前更廣泛的機會。
We are aligned on the principal commercial terms with the leading global cloud and AI hyperscaler, including their capital commitment to support 1.2 gigawatts of new generation in Texas with the potential to expand to 2.4 gigawatts. This is expected to be our first Bring Your Own Power project and reflects our strategy for large load growth. We believe it should be the industry standard, supporting economic growth, meeting our customers' expanding power needs and protecting families and small businesses.
我們已就主要商業條款與全球領先的雲端與 AI 超大規模業者(hyperscaler)達成一致,包括其資本承諾,以支持在德州新增 1.2 吉瓦發電,並具備擴大至 2.4 吉瓦的潛力。這預計將成為我們第一個「自備電力」(Bring Your Own Power)專案,並體現我們對大型負載成長的策略。我們相信這應成為產業標準:支持經濟成長、滿足客戶不斷擴大的用電需求,同時保護家庭與小型企業。
The commitment will be long term. The credit quality is strong. The economics support both the investment and our targeted return. This is disciplined growth at meaningful scale, structured around a large investment-grade customer and a clear path to do more. We also delivered solid second quarter results and are reaffirming our 2026 financial guidance. Bruce will cover the quarter in detail. As I mentioned, we're advancing a 1.2 gigawatt project in Texas with a leading global cloud and AI hyperscaler.
這項承諾將是長期的。信用品質強勁。經濟性同時支持投資與我們的目標報酬。這是在具意義的規模下進行的紀律性成長,以大型投資等級客戶為核心架構,並具備清晰的擴張路徑。我們也交出穩健的第二季成果,並重申 2026 年財務指引。Bruce 將詳細說明本季表現。如我所提,我們正與全球領先的雲端與 AI 超大規模業者在德州推進一項 1.2 吉瓦專案。
We're aligned on the principal commercial terms with negotiations and remaining land-related matters progressing in parallel. The customer has made a financial commitment to advance the project. Importantly, the project is designed to bring more new generation to Texas than the data center is expected to require. We believe its design positions it well to meet the state's power and reliability objectives.
我們已就主要商業條款達成一致,談判與剩餘的土地相關事項正同步推進。客戶已作出財務承諾以推動專案前進。重要的是,該專案的設計將為德州帶來的新增發電量,預期將高於資料中心所需。我們相信其設計使其具備良好條件,以符合該州的電力與可靠度目標。
Any final investment decision will be subject to the customary conditions, including required internal approvals. These are highly complex transactions with work to be done, but we're confident in the way we've structured and what we expect to deliver with our partner. NRG plans to develop, own and operate the new combined cycle gas plant. The facility is planned to support a 1-gigawatt data center load with additional Texas development opportunities that could expand the relationship to as much as 2.4 gigawatts.
任何最終投資決策都將取決於慣常條件,包括所需的內部核准。這些交易高度複雜,仍有工作要完成,但我們對自身的架構設計以及與合作夥伴預期交付的成果充滿信心。NRG 計畫開發、持有並營運新的燃氣複循環電廠。該設施規劃支援 1 吉瓦的資料中心負載,並在德州另有開發機會,可將合作關係擴大至最高 2.4 吉瓦。
The project is supported by the turbine and EPC capacity we secured through GE Vernova and Kiewit. This investment also has to work for the surrounding community. We expect more than 1,400 high-paying construction jobs, 30 permanent roles at the plant and significant new tax revenue for local governments and schools.
該專案由我們透過 GE Vernova 與 Kiewit 所取得的燃氣渦輪機與 EPC 產能提供支援。這項投資也必須對周邊社區有利。我們預期將創造超過 1,400 個高薪建造工作、電廠 30 個永久職缺,並為地方政府與學校帶來可觀的新稅收。
NRG has operated power plants in Texas for decades and our employees live in these communities. We know that water matters, and we and our customers are committed to responsible water stewardship and working closely with local stakeholders as development advances.
NRG 在德州營運電廠已數十年,我們的員工也居住在這些社區。我們了解水資源的重要性,我們與客戶承諾負責任的用水管理,並在開發推進過程中與地方利害關係人密切合作。
We also understand the broader concerns surrounding data center growth. Communities expected growth to be -- that growth to be responsible to respect local resources and to create real lasting benefits. That's how we're approaching this opportunity. The project's initial term is at least 15 years from commercial operation with potential for extensions. Based on the current development schedule, commercial operations is targeted for late 2029 with full run rate earnings thereafter.
我們也理解資料中心成長所引發的更廣泛疑慮。社區期待成長——這種成長必須負責任、尊重在地資源,並創造真正且持久的效益。這正是我們把握此機會的方式。該專案的初始期間自商轉起至少 15 年,並可能延長。依目前開發時程,商轉目標為 2029 年底,之後將達到完整的常態化獲利水準。
At full operation, we expect $500 million of annual adjusted EBITDA and $375 million of annual free cash flow before growth. Those figures reflect the 1.2 gigawatt project and do not include the potential expansion. These are high-quality, long-duration earnings supported by an exceptional investment-grade counterparty.
在全面運轉時,我們預期每年可貢獻 5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA,以及在成長投資前每年 3.75 億美元的自由現金流。上述數字反映 1.2 吉瓦專案,未包含潛在擴建。這些是高品質、長期間的獲利來源,並由卓越的投資等級交易對手所支撐。
The project is expected to deliver attractive returns that achieve our required investment hurdles on a stand-alone basis and are even more compelling on a risk-adjusted basis. It also represents a build multiple below where NRG trades today. The contemplated facility is expected to require $3.2 billion of investment. Bruce will provide more detail on the capital requirements and how we're thinking about funding the project. But let me be clear.
預期該專案將帶來具吸引力的報酬,單獨評估即可達成我們要求的投資門檻,且在風險調整後更具吸引力。它也代表其建置倍數低於 NRG 目前的交易倍數。該規劃設施預期需要 32 億美元投資。Bruce 將就資本需求以及我們對專案資金籌措的思考提供更多細節。但我要說清楚。
Our commitment to return at least $1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases each year is unchanged. We have the financial flexibility to fund this project as it advances, manage our path to target leverage and continue executing our capital allocation framework. The economics are compelling, and our commercial structure is what gives us confidence in their durability.
我們每年透過庫藏股回購至少回饋股東 10 億美元的承諾不變。我們具備財務彈性,可在專案推進過程中提供資金、管理達到目標槓桿的路徑,並持續執行我們的資本配置框架。其經濟性極具吸引力,而我們的商業架構正是讓我們對其可持續性有信心的原因。
Now let me walk you through it. On slide 6, the commercial framework has two components. The capacity payment is designed to recover the capital we invest and deliver the return we require. A separate operating payment covers natural gas and plant operating costs.
現在讓我帶各位逐步說明。在第 6 張投影片,商業框架包含兩個組成部分。容量費用旨在回收我們投入的資本並提供我們所要求的報酬。另一項獨立的營運費用則涵蓋天然氣與電廠營運成本。
Put simply, we're paid for the megawatts we build and make available, not for how much the data center runs. That distinction is critical. The commercial structure provides for 95% of the project's free cash flow to be supported by capacity payments over the term, independent of data center utilization. Fuel and operating costs are recovered separately and the customer's commitment will be supported by an investment-grade parent guarantee. The result is durable, visible cash flow.
簡單來說,我們的報酬是基於我們建置並可供使用的兆瓦容量,而不是資料中心實際運轉了多少。這項區別至關重要。該商業結構使得專案在合約期間內有95%的自由現金流由容量費(capacity payments)支撐,且不受資料中心使用率影響。燃料與營運成本將另行回收,且客戶的承諾將由具投資等級的母公司保證支持。結果是現金流具備耐久性且可見度高。
Our return is established upfront and is not dependent on merchant power prices or natural gas prices. The more important point is that this structure is not unique to one project. We do not need to reinvent the model each time. The customer, location and project size may change, but the fundamentals remain the same. The commercial structure supports the investment, NRG develops, owns and operates the generation and the economics are established before construction begins.
我們的報酬在一開始就已確立,且不依賴市場電力價格或天然氣價格。更重要的是,這種結構並非僅適用於單一專案。我們不需要每次都重新發明這個模式。客戶、地點與專案規模可能會改變,但基本原則不變。該商業結構支撐投資,NRG負責開發、持有並營運發電資產,而經濟條件在動工前就已確立。
What differentiates NRG is our ability to bring the full solution together. We provide an integrated path to power from bridge solutions through permanent combined cycle generation with the flexibility to operate in island mode, grid-connected or transition between the two. Pairing generation with a load can also reduce the amount of incremental transmission infrastructure required to serve that demand, another important benefit of the BYOP model.
NRG的差異化在於我們能把完整解決方案整合到位。我們提供從過渡性方案到永久性複循環發電的一體化供電路徑,並具備以孤島模式運轉、併網運轉或在兩者間切換的彈性。將發電與負載配對,也能降低為滿足該需求所需新增的輸電基礎設施規模,這也是BYOP模式的另一項重要優勢。
We also bring the in-house capabilities to develop, engineer, interconnect, commission and operate the assets across their full life cycle. That gives the customer one experienced partner accountable from initial design through decades of operation. It reduces handoffs and helps lower execution risk across a highly complex power development. We've built those capabilities over decades and are proving them today.
我們也具備內部能力,可在資產全生命週期內完成開發、工程設計、併網、試運轉並營運。這讓客戶從初始設計到數十年的營運,都有一位經驗豐富的合作夥伴負責到底。這可減少交接環節,並有助於降低高度複雜的電力開發專案之執行風險。我們花了數十年建立這些能力,並正在今日加以驗證。
Our 1.5 gigawatt Texas Energy Fund portfolio remains on track, including T.H. Wharton, which we delivered on time and on budget. We moved early to secure both turbine and EPC capacity through GE Vernova and Kiewit, giving us the equipment and the execution capability required to continue building at scale.
我們1.5吉瓦的德州能源基金(Texas Energy Fund)投資組合仍按計畫推進,其中包括T.H. Wharton,我們按時且在預算內交付。我們提早行動,透過GE Vernova與Kiewit確保渦輪機與EPC產能,使我們具備持續以規模化方式建置所需的設備與執行能力。
Few companies can bring all of those elements together. I am proud to say that NRG can. That is why this opportunity came to us and why we're positioned to do it again. On the next slide, the market setup is increasingly compelling. Across ERCOT and PJM, projected demand growth is materially ahead of the supply currently expected to come online.
能把所有這些要素整合到位的公司不多。我很自豪地說,NRG可以。這就是為什麼這個機會會找上我們,以及為什麼我們已具備再次做到的條件。在下一張投影片,市場格局愈發具吸引力。在ERCOT與PJM,預期需求成長明顯超過目前預計將上線的供給。
We do not need every forecasted project to materialize for both markets to require substantial new generation. That imbalance is changing the market. Customers need executable power solutions. Policymakers are pushing towards growth -- pushing growth towards customer-backed supply, and the value is moving toward companies with real development positions and the ability to deliver.
我們不需要每一個預測中的專案都落地,兩個市場仍會需要大量新增發電。這種失衡正在改變市場。客戶需要可執行的供電解決方案。政策制定者正推動成長——並推動成長轉向由客戶背書的供給,而價值正轉移到那些擁有真正開發佈局並具備交付能力的公司。
Our BYOP framework answers the reliability and affordability concerns of elected officials and regulators. Our ability to design, build, own and operate a power plant for decades is a differentiator for our solutions. We have a history of working in and living in the community. We are a responsible operator and community member. In today's world, that matters. That's where NRG is positioned today.
我們的BYOP架構回應了民選官員與監管機構對可靠性與可負擔性的疑慮。我們具備設計、建造、持有並營運電廠數十年的能力,是我們解決方案的差異化優勢。我們長期在社區工作並生活。我們是負責任的營運者與社區成員。在當今世界,這很重要。這就是NRG目前所處的位置。
Now let me put the scale of the opportunity into perspective. The 1.2 gigawatt project discussed today is the first step in bringing the full potential into perspective. It represents the first 1.2 gigawatts of the 5.4 gigawatts of turbine and EPC capacity we've secured through 2032, with line of sight to the critical labor required to execute that build-out.
現在讓我把這個機會的規模放到脈絡中來看。今天討論的1.2吉瓦專案,是展現全部潛力的第一步。它代表我們已透過2032年所確保的5.4吉瓦渦輪機與EPC產能中的首批1.2吉瓦,並且我們對於執行該擴建所需的關鍵勞動力也有清晰可見的掌握。
Our broader development pipeline is more than twice the 5.4 gigawatts of capacity we have secured with every turbine slot tied to an active customer discussion. Customers recognize the value and scarcity of the development position we have assembled and our technical expertise and capabilities. And as you'd expect, engagement across that pipeline continues to build.
我們更廣泛的開發管線,規模超過我們已確保的5.4吉瓦產能的兩倍,且每一個渦輪機時段都對應到一項正在進行的客戶洽談。客戶認可我們所建立之開發佈局的價值與稀缺性,以及我們的技術專長與能力。而如你所預期,整體管線的互動與投入仍在持續升溫。
Potential capital partners also recognize the value of what we've assembled, providing additional pathways to advance the broader opportunity through capital-efficient structures while preserving balance sheet flexibility and continuing our disciplined and consistent return of capital to shareholders. We also have about 2 gigawatts of upgrade opportunities across our PJM fleet. Together, that gives us a substantial runway to apply the model we just described.
潛在資本合作夥伴也認可我們所建立成果的價值,透過更具資本效率的結構提供額外途徑以推進更廣泛的機會,同時維持資產負債表彈性,並持續以一貫且嚴謹的方式向股東回饋資本。我們在PJM機組群也有約2吉瓦的升級增容(uprate)機會。合計之下,這為我們套用剛才描述的模式提供了相當長的跑道。
Let me be clear about how we will pursue that opportunity. We will not trade discipline for scale. Each project must stand on its own, meet our risk-adjusted return thresholds and be supported by the commercial and credit protections appropriate to the capital we deploy. Combining the established base with the 1.2 gigawatt BYOP project creates an illustrative '23 -- sorry, 2030 contracted free cash flow opportunity of $1.2 billion.
我想清楚說明我們將如何追求這個機會。我們不會為了規模而犧牲紀律。每個專案都必須能自成一體,符合我們的風險調整後報酬門檻,並由與我們投入資本相匹配的商業與信用保護所支撐。將既有基礎與1.2吉瓦BYOP專案結合,可形成一個示意性的『23——抱歉,2030年』合約化自由現金流機會,規模為12億美元。
For purposes of this illustration, we hold current capacity auction prices constant through 2033. That is an assumption, not a forecast of future auction outcomes. If we're successful in bringing this project to fruition, and I strongly believe we will be, then together with contracting the remaining new build opportunities and executing the uprates, the free cash flow supported by long-term agreements and capacity revenues can reach 95% of the midpoint of our company-wide 2026 free cash flow guidance by 2033.
就此示意而言,我們假設目前的容量拍賣價格一路維持不變至2033年。這是一項假設,而非對未來拍賣結果的預測。如果我們成功推動此專案落地——我也堅信我們會——那麼再加上其餘新建機會的簽約與增容的執行,至2033年,由長期協議與容量收入所支撐的自由現金流可達到我們公司整體2026年自由現金流指引中位數的95%。
And that would only be one part of NRG. The rest of the business would continue to generate cash flow and create value alongside it. As a reminder, before any data center opportunities, our core business is expected to deliver 14-plus percent adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030. That is the opportunity to materially expand NRG while fundamentally improving the quality of its cash flow.
而那只會是NRG的一部分。其餘業務仍將持續產生現金流,並與之並行創造價值。提醒一下,在任何資料中心機會之前,我們的核心業務預期至2030年可實現14%以上的調整後EPS年複合成長率(CAGR)。這就是在根本提升現金流品質的同時,實質擴大NRG的機會。
We intend to help build the power infrastructure behind America's digital economy while protecting communities and customers, both large and small, all while creating a larger, stronger and higher quality NRG in the process. This is an important step. We intend for it to be the first of many.
我們打算在保護社區與各類客戶(無論大型或小型)的同時,協助建構支撐美國數位經濟的電力基礎設施,並在此過程中打造一個更大、更強且品質更高的NRG。這是重要的一步。我們希望它成為眾多步驟中的第一步。
Bruce, over to you.
Bruce,交給你。
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Rob. Turning to slide 10. NRG delivered a solid quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, up $308 million or 34% from the prior year period. Adjusted net income was $315 million compared to $339 million a year ago, and adjusted EPS was $1.49 compared to $1.73. Free cash flow before growth was $1.025 billion, up $111 million year-over-year.
謝謝你,Rob。我們看第10張投影片。NRG本季表現穩健,調整後EBITDA為12億美元,較去年同期增加3.08億美元或34%。調整後淨利為3.15億美元,去年同期為3.39億美元;調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為1.49美元,去年同期為1.73美元。成長前自由現金流為10.25億美元,年增1.11億美元。
This was our first full quarter with the portfolio we acquired from LS Power, and we are exceptionally pleased with the quality of the assets and the contribution they are making to the business. The year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA was driven primarily by the acquired portfolio, higher PJM capacity values and continued growth in Smart Home.
這是我們併入自LS Power收購之投資組合後的第一個完整季度,我們對資產品質以及其對業務的貢獻感到非常滿意。調整後EBITDA的年增主要由收購投資組合、更高的PJM容量價值,以及Smart Home的持續成長所帶動。
Adjusted net income and adjusted EPS were modestly lower as acquisition-related interest expense and D&A offset the higher EBITDA contribution. That is the expected near-term net income and EPS profile during the deleveraging period. As we reduce debt and associated interest expense, more of the portfolio's earnings contribution will flow through to EPS.
由於與收購相關的利息費用以及折舊與攤銷(D&A)抵銷了較高的EBITDA貢獻,調整後淨利與調整後EPS小幅下降。這是去槓桿期間預期的短期淨利與EPS走勢。隨著我們降低負債及相關利息費用,該投資組合更多的獲利貢獻將反映到EPS上。
Turning to segment results. Texas adjusted EBITDA declined $131 million year-over-year, primarily reflecting lower load and power prices. ERCOT Houston around-the-clock prices averaged $33 per megawatt hour during the quarter, 8% lower than last year and well below our 2026 planning assumption of $52. With prices low and volatility limited, our fleet had fewer opportunities to run and our commercial team had fewer opportunities to optimize the portfolio.
接著看分部業績。德州調整後 EBITDA 年減 1.31 億美元,主要反映負載與電價下滑。本季 ERCOT 休士頓全天候電價平均為每兆瓦時 33 美元,較去年低 8%,且遠低於我們 2026 年規劃假設的 52 美元。在價格偏低且波動有限的情況下,我們的機組可運轉的機會較少,商務團隊可優化投資組合的機會也較少。
East adjusted EBITDA increased $370 million year-over-year, driven primarily by the contribution from the portfolio acquired from LS Power. Energy margins from those assets did not fully realize the increase in PJM power prices because some pre-existing hedges were in place when we closed the transaction. Results also reflected higher supply costs in our retail businesses.
東部調整後 EBITDA 年增 3.70 億美元,主要由自 LS Power 收購之投資組合的貢獻所帶動。由於我們完成交易時已存在部分既有避險,該等資產的能源利潤未能完全反映 PJM 電價上升。業績亦反映我們零售業務較高的供應成本。
One additional item in the East is Virginia's return to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative or RGGI. After we acquired the portfolio from LS Power, Virginia enacted legislation requiring the state to rejoin the program effective July 1. That change applies to the 1.2 gigawatts of Virginia assets in the acquired portfolio and creates an estimated $70 million of incremental cost in 2026 that was not included in our underwriting.
東部另有一項因素是維吉尼亞州重返區域溫室氣體倡議(RGGI)。在我們自 LS Power 收購該投資組合後,維吉尼亞州通過立法,要求該州自 7 月 1 日起重新加入該計畫。此變更適用於所收購投資組合中位於維吉尼亞州的 1.2 吉瓦資產,並在 2026 年帶來估計 7,000 萬美元的新增成本,該成本未納入我們的承作評估(underwriting)。
In the West, adjusted EBITDA increased $27 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower operating expenses following the expiration of a facility lease last year. Smart Home adjusted EBITDA increased $42 million, driven by continued customer growth and higher recurring service margin per customer. The business ended the quarter with 2.45 million customers, up 8% year-over-year and continues to deliver growth well ahead of the pace assumed in our long-term outlook.
西部方面,調整後 EBITDA 年增 2,700 萬美元,主要因去年一項設施租約到期後營運費用降低。智慧家庭(Smart Home)調整後 EBITDA 增加 4,200 萬美元,受持續的客戶成長與每位客戶經常性服務毛利提升所帶動。該業務於本季末客戶數達 245 萬戶,年增 8%,且持續交出遠優於我們長期展望假設的成長速度。
With solid second quarter results, we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance ranges. Through the first half of 2026, softer load and power prices in Texas and higher regional power supply costs incurred during Winter Storm Fern have us tracking below the midpoint of the ranges. While PJM prices have strengthened, pre-existing hedges on the acquired portfolio and higher RGGI costs have limited the near-term benefit.
在第二季表現穩健的情況下,我們重申 2026 年指引區間。截至 2026 年上半年,德州較疲弱的負載與電價,以及冬季風暴 Fern 期間產生的較高區域電力供應成本,使我們目前的表現低於區間中點。儘管 PJM 價格走強,但收購投資組合的既有避險以及較高的 RGGI 成本限制了短期受益。
Our first half results largely reflect the impacts of weather and market conditions, not a change in the underlying performance of the business. We plan for outcomes like these when establishing our guidance ranges and actively manage the portfolio to align expected supply with committed customer load to ensure we deliver results within those guidance ranges.
我們上半年業績主要反映天候與市場狀況的影響,而非業務基本面表現的改變。在制定指引區間時,我們已將此類結果納入規劃,並積極管理投資組合,使預期供應與已承諾的客戶負載相匹配,以確保我們能在指引區間內交付成果。
As a result, as we move through the balance of the year, we have limited unhedged exposure, and our outlook does not rely on a material recovery in commodity prices, thereby giving us confidence that we will deliver within our guidance ranges. Moving to slide 11. We have updated our 2026 capital allocation plan to incorporate the initial investments in the 1.2 gigawatt Texas data center new build project Rob discussed. As you can see from the chart, aside from the reallocation of a portion of planned liability management to the new build investment, all other elements of our 2026 capital allocation remain unchanged.
因此,隨著我們進入今年剩餘期間,我們未避險曝險有限,且我們的展望不依賴大宗商品價格出現顯著回升,這使我們有信心能在指引區間內達成。接著看第 11 頁。我們已更新 2026 年資本配置計畫,以納入 Rob 所談及之德州 1.2 吉瓦資料中心新建專案的初始投資。如圖所示,除將原規劃中部分負債管理重新配置至新建投資外,我們 2026 年資本配置的其他要素均維持不變。
Importantly, this investment does not change our previously announced commitment to repurchase at least $1 billion of shares annually. The primary update is a new data center new build investment category, reflecting $721 million of expected project investment in 2026. Of that amount, $40 million was previously included in plant and other investments and has been reclassified, so the full project investment is presented in one place.
重要的是,這項投資不會改變我們先前宣布每年至少回購 10 億美元股票的承諾。主要更新為新增「資料中心新建投資」類別,反映 2026 年預期專案投資 7.21 億美元。其中 4,000 萬美元先前已列入廠房及其他投資,現已重新分類,因此將完整專案投資集中於同一處呈列。
The remaining $681 million is the incremental change to the plan and will be funded through lower liability management, resulting in less net debt reduction in 2026 than previously planned. It is important to note that the vast majority of the expected spend in 2026 relates to equipment-related procurement. Not only is this spend critical to the currently contemplated project, but it is also critical to the preservation of the increasingly valuable option the equipment represents given the prominence that new generation will have in the data center build-out.
其餘 6.81 億美元為本計畫的增量變動,將透過降低負債管理來支應,使 2026 年淨負債減少幅度低於先前規劃。需要注意的是,2026 年預期支出中的絕大部分與設備採購相關。此支出不僅對目前所構想的專案至關重要,亦對維持該等設備所代表、日益具價值的選擇權至關重要,因為在資料中心擴建中,新發電資源將扮演關鍵角色。
Since this spend is largely equipment related, it represents spend that can be pointed to other viable projects and therefore, is not sunk cost. Our approach to facilitating the data center build-out, combined with the pipeline of prospective opportunities we are pursuing, gives us confidence that these are prudent investments that will drive appropriate returns.
由於此支出主要與設備相關,因此可轉用於其他可行專案,並非沉沒成本。我們促成資料中心擴建的方式,加上我們正在推進的潛在機會管線,使我們有信心這些是審慎的投資,將帶來適當的報酬。
As a reminder, in April, we advanced our post-acquisition deleveraging plan through a series of refinancing transactions. We retired substantially all of the $1.5 billion of Lightning senior secured notes we assumed in the acquisition and repaid a portion of the revolver borrowings used to fund the transaction. These actions extended our average maturities, reduced secured debt and are expected to generate more than $10 million of annual interest savings.
提醒一下,4 月我們透過一系列再融資交易,推進收購後的去槓桿計畫。我們已償還在收購中承接之 15 億美元 Lightning 優先擔保票據的幾乎全部,並償還部分用於資助交易的循環信貸(revolver)借款。這些行動延長了我們的平均到期年限、降低了擔保債務,並預期每年可節省超過 1,000 萬美元的利息支出。
Our long-term leverage target of 3 times remains unchanged. We are also executing against our 2026 return of capital plan. Throughout the first half, we completed $921 million (sic - see Financial report, page no. 2 "$932 million") of share repurchases and paid $202 million in common dividends. For the full year, we continue to expect $1 billion of share repurchases and $407 million of common dividends.
我們長期槓桿目標維持 3 倍不變。我們也正按計畫執行 2026 年資本回饋方案。在上半年期間,我們完成了 9.21 億美元(原文如此(sic)—見財務報告第 2 頁「9.32 億美元」)的股票回購,並支付 2.02 億美元普通股股利。就全年而言,我們仍預期股票回購 10 億美元及普通股股利 4.07 億美元。
Turning to slide 12. Rob covered the contemplated commercial structure. Let me focus on what it means financially and how we plan to fund the project. The commercial structure of the new build project protects the return we underwrite through an availability-based capacity payment, separate recovery of fuel and operating costs and limited commodity exposure. The customer is investment grade and its obligations will be backed by appropriate credit support.
接著看第 12 頁。Rob 已說明所構想的商業架構。我將聚焦其財務意涵以及我們計畫如何為專案籌資。新建專案的商業架構透過以可用度為基礎的容量費(capacity payment)、燃料與營運成本的獨立回收,以及有限的大宗商品曝險,來保障我們承作評估的報酬。客戶具投資等級,其義務將由適當的信用支持作為擔保。
At full operation, the initial 1.2 gigawatt project is expected to generate at least $500 million of annual adjusted EBITDA and approximately $375 million of annual free cash flow before growth. On $3.2 billion of total investment, we expect the project to deliver a pretax unlevered IRR within our 12% to 15% target range. At the expected run rate EBITDA, that implies a build multiple of approximately 6 times.
在全面運轉時,初始 1.2 吉瓦專案預期每年可產生至少 5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA,以及約 3.75 億美元的年度自由現金流(成長投資前)。以總投資 32 億美元計算,我們預期該專案可達到稅前、無槓桿 IRR,落在我們 12% 至 15% 的目標區間內。以預期的穩態(run rate)EBITDA 計算,這意味著建置倍數約為 6 倍。
These earnings are not included in the long-term framework we provided earlier this year. That framework, including our expectation for 14% plus adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030 is supported by the base business alone. This project represents substantial additional earnings power. We plan to fund the project through operating cash flow and balance sheet capacity, including lower liability management, resulting in less net debt reduction than previously planned over the construction period. We remain committed to long-term net leverage of 3 times, which we believe is consistent with investment-grade credit metrics.
這些獲利尚未納入我們今年稍早提供的長期框架中。該框架(包括我們對 2030 年前調整後 EPS 年複合成長率 14% 以上的預期)僅由基礎業務即可支撐。本專案代表可觀的額外獲利能力。我們計畫透過營運現金流與資產負債表承載能力為專案籌資,包括降低負債管理,使建造期間的淨負債減少幅度低於先前規劃。我們仍致力於長期淨槓桿 3 倍,我們認為這與投資等級的信用指標一致。
We believe the expected cash flows and counterparty credit quality are constructive from a credit and ratings perspective. The funding plan preserves the capital allocation commitments we have previously made as we expect to continue to execute at least $1 billion of annual share repurchases through the construction period.
我們認為,預期現金流與交易對手的信用品質,從信用與評等角度來看具正面意義。該籌資計畫可維持我們先前所作的資本配置承諾,因為我們預期在建造期間仍將持續執行每年至少 10 億美元的股票回購。
Lastly, we expect the project to qualify for bonus depreciation upon COD. COD thereby further extending our cash tax runway. Moving to the next slide. Total investment for the 1.2 gigawatt project is expected to be $3.2 billion or $2,700 a kW, with capital deployed over four years and the largest outlays following key development and construction milestones. Cumulative investment through the end of 2026 is expected to be $0.8 billion, including previously made reservation payments.
最後,我們預期該專案在商轉日(COD)時可符合加速折舊(bonus depreciation)資格。COD 亦將進一步延長我們的現金稅(cash tax)可用期間。接著看下一頁。1.2 吉瓦專案的總投資預期為 32 億美元,或每千瓦 2,700 美元,資本將在四年內投入,且最大支出將發生於關鍵開發與施工里程碑之後。截至 2026 年底的累計投資預期為 8 億美元,其中包含先前已支付的預留款項。
From there, we expect to invest $1 billion in 2027, $1.1 billion in 2028 and the remaining $0.3 billion in 2029 ahead of the expected late 2029 COD. 60% of the investment relates to EPC and the remainder relates to turbine equipment and other project costs. The investment profile is deliberately phased. Capital follows project progress with the largest outlays occurring after key milestones.
從那之後,我們預期於2027年投資10億美元、2028年投資11億美元,並在預期於2029年末達成COD之前,於2029年投入剩餘的3億美元。投資中有60%與EPC相關,其餘則與渦輪機設備及其他專案成本相關。此投資曲線是刻意分期安排的。資本支出將隨專案進度投入,最大筆支出將發生在達成關鍵里程碑之後。
We retain meaningful flexibility throughout development and construction. As I mentioned earlier, much of the 2026 spend relates to equipment, which, if necessary, could be redeployed at other viable projects. As such, we see this investment as less project-specific and more an investment in NRG's unique capabilities to deliver solutions that work for customers.
我們在整個開發與施工期間都保有相當大的彈性。如我先前提到,2026年的多數支出與設備相關,如有需要,這些設備可重新部署至其他具可行性的專案。因此,我們認為這項投資與其說是針對單一專案,不如說是對NRG獨特能力的投資,以交付能為客戶奏效的解決方案。
Our current plan assumes NRG funds and owns the project. As development advances, we will evaluate opportunities to improve capital efficiency, including financial partners, while preserving the economics and strategic value of the investments.
我們目前的計畫是假設由NRG出資並持有該專案。隨著開發推進,我們將評估提升資本效率的機會(包括引入財務合作夥伴),同時維持投資的經濟性與策略價值。
In closing, we delivered solid second quarter results and reaffirmed our 2026 guidance. The data center new build project adds a substantial new stream of contracted earnings beyond our existing framework with returns protected by a robust commercial structure and a funding plan that preserves the commitments we have made to shareholders. With that, I'll hand it back to Rob.
最後,我們交出穩健的第二季成果,並重申我們對2026年的指引。資料中心新建專案在既有架構之外,新增一條可觀的合約化獲利來源;其報酬由強健的商業架構所保障,且資金規劃亦能維持我們對股東所做的承諾。接下來我把時間交還給Rob。
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Bruce. Let me close with where we stand. We delivered solid second quarter results, reaffirmed our 2026 guidance and made significant progress on our large load strategy through the 1.2 gigawatt BYOP opportunity discussed today. At the start of the year, we said we were targeting at least 1 gigawatt of large load agreements in 2026.
謝謝你,Bruce。我用我們目前的進展作結。我們交出穩健的第二季成果,重申2026年指引,並透過今天討論的1.2吉瓦BYOP機會,在我們的大負載策略上取得重大進展。在年初時,我們表示目標是在2026年至少達成1吉瓦的大負載協議。
We are advancing an opportunity that would deliver that objective with principal commercial terms aligned and negotiations and remaining land-related matters progressing. Any final investment decision will be subject to customary conditions, including required internal approvals. As I said at the outset, the environment has changed. Our strategy has not.
我們正在推進一項可實現該目標的機會,目前主要商業條款已對齊,談判以及剩餘的土地相關事項也在持續推進。任何最終投資決策都將取決於慣常條件,包括所需的內部核准。正如我在一開始所說,環境已經改變。但我們的策略沒有改變。
Texas has made it clear that how large load growth is served matters. New demand must bring the power infrastructure required to support it, strengthen the system and avoid shifting the investment burden to families and small businesses. That direction plays directly to the model we have built. This project is designed to bring more generation than the data center is expected to require, reduce the need for incremental transmission and place the investment burden on the customer.
德州已明確表示,如何因應大負載成長至關重要。新增需求必須帶來支撐其所需的電力基礎設施、強化系統,並避免將投資負擔轉嫁給家庭與小型企業。這一方向正好契合我們建立的模式。本專案的設計將帶來超過資料中心預期所需的發電量,降低對額外輸電的需求,並將投資負擔放在客戶身上。
That's why we believe the project is well positioned in Texas and why NRG is well positioned to lead. There is still work ahead. We will stay focused on advancing the project, executing across the broader business and maintaining the discipline that brought us to this point. We have made meaningful progress against what we set out to do. We are going to keep our heads down and finish the work.
這就是為什麼我們相信該專案在德州具備良好定位,也為什麼NRG具備領先的有利位置。前方仍有工作要做。我們將持續專注推進專案、在更廣泛的業務面向落實執行,並維持帶領我們走到今天的紀律。我們在既定目標上已取得實質進展。我們會埋頭把工作完成。
Operator, we're now ready to open the line for questions.
接線員,我們現在準備開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith,Jefferies。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Congratulations, guys, on getting this across the finish line. Nicely done, Rob and gang. Yes, absolutely. So you know what I'm going to always ask here. So nicely done here, I'm very curious about an expansion of this site. I mean it seems that some of your sites have the opportunity to expand to that full 2.4 gigawatt. How are you thinking about the timeline to make it happen?
恭喜各位把這件事推到終點線。做得很好,Rob和團隊。是的,完全同意。所以你們知道我在這裡一向會問什麼。這次做得很漂亮,我非常好奇這個場址的擴建。我的意思是,看起來你們有些場址有機會擴到完整的2.4吉瓦。你們如何看待實現這件事的時間表?
I noticed, not to nitpick on the slides, it looks like it could be up to 18 months between the first and the second in terms of the COD. So how do you think about just setting expectations on the cadence around these incremental 1.2 gigawatt chunks, whether at that site or elsewhere?
我注意到(不是要挑投影片的毛病),看起來第一期與第二期的COD之間可能相差多達18個月。那麼你們如何看待、以及如何設定市場對這些新增1.2吉瓦區塊的節奏預期——不論是在該場址或其他地方?
And then also, if you can, can you speak to the returns? Is this kind of a build multiple, shall we say, the new norm as to how you think about what these other projects are going to be? Or are they going to be slightly less favorable given that this is the first one and potentially the cheapest?
另外,如果可以的話,能否談談報酬率?這種建置倍數(姑且這麼說)是否會成為你們看待其他專案的新常態?還是說,鑑於這是第一個、可能也是成本最低的一個,其他專案的條件會稍微不那麼有利?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So there's a lot in there, Julien. So thank you. I'm going to try to answer everything you said. Let's start with returns. So the returns that we showed today on this particular project that we're moving forward, that's our expectation. That's what we've committed to our shareholders. And when we have conversations with customers, that's it, like this is what it's going to be. And everyone will flow a little bit here and there. But generally, that's what we expect to return to our shareholders for the capital they deploy.
是的。Julien,你問的內容很多。謝謝。我會盡量把你提到的都回答到。先從報酬率談起。我們今天展示的這個正在推進的特定專案之報酬率,就是我們的預期。這也是我們對股東所承諾的。而當我們與客戶對話時,就是這樣:這就是會是什麼樣子。當然各案之間會有些微差異。但整體而言,這就是我們預期能為股東就其投入資本所帶來的回報。
As far as how to think about timing and where projects go, the thing that gets set on delivery of these projects is the CODs of construction and the turbine deliveries themselves. right? Depending on how the customer wants to go, where the sites were going to go to and when we can get the turbine on the ground, that will determine kind of the speed that we go to.
至於如何看待時程與專案落點,決定這些專案交付的關鍵在於施工的COD以及渦輪機的交付本身,對吧?取決於客戶想怎麼推進、場址要落在哪裡,以及我們何時能把渦輪機落地,這些都會決定我們推進的速度。
But what we've laid out historically is consistent with what we see across our pipeline because it's determined by what we see out of our GEV agreement. And so we have those conversations with customers. And then the last piece I would just in response to your statements, the one thing I would think about is the 1.2 gigawatts on a site to expand to 2.4, that doesn't rule out taking 2.4 somewhere. That doesn't rule out 4.8 somewhere, right?
但我們過去所揭露的內容,與我們在管線中看到的情況一致,因為這是由我們在GEV協議中所看到的供應節奏所決定的。因此我們會與客戶進行這些對話。最後一點,回應你剛才的說法:我會這樣看——某個場址1.2吉瓦擴到2.4吉瓦,並不排除在其他地方一次做到2.4吉瓦。也不排除在某處做到4.8吉瓦,對吧?
As we talk to customers and we think across these turbines, we have multiple customers looking for multiple turbines. The project that we put forward today and the one that we have the most alignment around is at a site, right? But don't get tied up on trying to sort out where or how because that's not the important part.
當我們與客戶洽談、並從這些渦輪機的角度思考時,我們有多個客戶在尋求多台渦輪機。我們今天提出、且目前對齊程度最高的專案是在某個場址,對吧?但不要糾結於要釐清在哪裡或怎麼做,因為那不是重點。
What we're trying to get across is the commercial structure we put forward so that you guys can see how it works. And that is the conversation that we are having with every customer as to how we structure these deals because it's the right way to do it. We're working hard on it. We're not done, but we believe that this is an important piece of information for all of you guys to see.
我們想傳達的是我們提出的商業架構,讓各位能看見它如何運作。而這正是我們與每一位客戶在討論的重點:我們要如何架構這些交易,因為這是正確的做法。我們正努力推進。我們還沒完成,但我們相信這是重要資訊,值得讓各位看到。
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Julien, on the COD point, I'll just add. So this first one is late 2029. What we've said previously is the way that the GEV Kiewit structure is organized, you can assume there's another block, so 1.2 to come on serially year -- each year after the 2029 COD for the first one.
Julien,關於COD那點,我再補充一下。第一個是2029年末。我們先前說過,依GEV與Kiewit的架構安排,你可以假設還會有另一個區塊,也就是在第一個於2029年達成COD之後,每一年會依序再有1.2吉瓦上線。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst
Got it. Okay. So 12-month cadence. Nice. And then just a couple of nuances. First, just with the contract duration, is that typically the -- to complement the return, that duration is the new norm? And then also, how do you think about the Texas governor's announcement yesterday? Again, I know not necessarily specific and germane to this project, per se, but how does that impact just the time line as far as you're concerned?
了解。好的。所以是以12個月為一個節奏。不錯。然後再問幾個細節。首先,關於合約期限,通常是否是——作為回報的配套——這個期限已成為新的常態?另外,你怎麼看德州州長昨天的宣布?同樣地,我知道這不一定是針對、也不一定與這個專案直接相關,但就你們而言,這對時程會有什麼影響?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. So on the contract duration, we've told you guys 15 to 20 years. This particular structure is 15. We're not going to go less than that or I wouldn't expect to because that would dramatically change the price of the customer. On the Texas governor stuff, look, I understand where the politicians and regulators are in Texas.
好的。關於合約期限,我們跟各位說過是15到20年。這個特定的架構是15年。我們不會比這更短,或者我也不預期會更短,因為那會大幅改變客戶的價格。至於德州州長那件事,坦白說,我理解德州的政治人物與監管機構所處的位置。
And I tried to make that point in this -- in our -- what I said earlier in my scripted remarks. Our project answers those questions, right? It is the right project to meet the concerns of the communities and the elected officials because it doesn't strain the grid and because it also can reduce the need for some transmission out there.
我也試著在這——在我們——也就是我先前照稿的發言中把這點說清楚。我們的專案正好回答了那些問題,對吧?它是能回應社區與民選官員疑慮的正確專案,因為它不會讓電網承受壓力,而且也能降低那邊對部分輸電的需求。
As far as timing goes, Texas is to get things done state. I expect them to work through stuff to get to a higher quality understanding of the projects to be put down over time. And then the last part I would point out is, remember, this is a COD in 2029. So I think we're okay.
就時程而言,德州是一個把事情做成的州。我預期他們會把相關事項梳理清楚,隨時間推進,對要落地的專案形成更高品質的理解。最後我想提醒的是,記住,這是2029年的COD(商轉日)。所以我認為我們沒問題。
Operator
Operator
Shar Pourreza, Wells Fargo.
Shar Pourreza,富國銀行。
Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst
Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst
Can you just maybe just a little bit higher level, just elaborate on the actual progress that's being made and kind of what drove the confidence to announce the principal terms at this stage? So I guess what types of final approvals could be outstanding? And when can those be expected?
能否用更高層次的角度,稍微多談一下目前實際取得了哪些進展,以及是什麼讓你們有信心在這個階段宣布主要條款?所以我想問,還可能有哪些最終核准尚未完成?以及預計何時能完成?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. So why we talked at all. It's important for our shareholders to understand both the structure of what we're pursuing, the strategy of how we're delivering on our GEV and Kiewit turbines. And we found that we were in a material place to have a conversation about progress so that each of you could understand where we're at.
好的。所以我們為什麼要談這件事。讓股東了解我們正在追求的架構,以及我們如何透過GEV與Kiewit渦輪機交付策略,這很重要。我們認為目前已經到了一個具實質性的階段,可以就進展進行對話,讓各位了解我們走到哪裡了。
As far as things that are what we've stated today, right, we are commercially aligned, meaning that we have a -- they've seen the structure, they agree to the structure. We are close and in close conversations every day about specific timing or a piece of land or whatever those things are. The things that we're still subject to is we're still subject to negotiation.
就我們今天所陳述的內容而言,我們在商業面已經對齊,也就是說,我們有一個——他們已看過這個架構,也同意這個架構。我們非常接近,並且每天都在就具體時點、某一塊土地或其他事項進行密切溝通。但我們仍然受制於的部分是:我們仍在談判中。
Moving forward is not done, and we will continue to push until we are, and we'll continue to have conversations with multiple customers until we are. And then it's obviously the required internal approvals and all of the things that go with that.
接下來要推進的事情還沒完成,我們會持續推進直到完成為止,也會在完成之前持續與多個客戶對話。然後當然還有必要的內部核准,以及隨之而來的所有事項。
The last thing I would say around timing, the next time we'll come back to you, Shar, we're going to tell you when we have another material piece of information to talk about. I'm not going to set myself or the negotiation team up with a time line to work against. But I feel very strongly that we will continue to push forward, and I believe that we will meet our objectives, both for the short term and the long term for this company.
最後關於時程我想說的是,下次再回來跟你更新、Shar,我們會在有另一個具實質性的資訊可談時再告訴你。我不會替自己或談判團隊設定一個讓我們被迫對抗的時間表。但我非常有信心我們會持續向前推進,我也相信我們會達成目標,無論是短期還是長期,對這家公司都是如此。
Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst
Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst
Got it. That's perfect. And then just lastly, I mean, just given some of the noise around collateral requirements that we're seeing and stuff. And can you just maybe elaborate a little bit on the counterparties. It's obviously investment grade, but is it BBB? Is it single A? Can you just maybe elaborate a little bit on the credit quality of the counterparty?
了解。很完美。最後一個問題,考量到我們看到市場上對擔保品要求等方面有一些雜音。你能否稍微談一下交易對手?顯然是投資等級,但它是BBB嗎?還是單A?能否稍微說明一下交易對手的信用品質?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
To quote my predecessor, no.
引用我前任的話:不行。
Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst
Shahriar Pourreza - Analyst
I could see Larry right now shaking his head, saying, don't answer that, Rob. Don't answer that.
我現在彷彿看到Larry在搖頭,說:別回答那個,Rob。別回答那個。
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
He is so happy with that answer.
他對這個回答非常滿意。
Operator
Operator
Nick Campanella, Barclays.
Nick Campanella,巴克萊。
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Appreciate all the updates on the BYOP deal. Just a follow-up on the contract details. You used to kind of talk about when you were outlining for investors how to think about this targeted pricing. I know you kind of talked about like $80 plus per megawatt hour.
感謝你們提供BYOP交易的所有更新。我想就合約細節追問一下。你們以前在向投資人說明如何看待這個目標定價時,曾經提到過。我記得你們談過大概每兆瓦時80美元以上。
So just with the returns on the slide that you're looking at and the CapEx cost being kind of a little bias higher since you've given that update. Just is the PPA equivalent now north of $90 -- north of $100? Any comments there? I know it's kind of like a fixed capacity charge pass-through, but how would you think about that?
所以就你們投影片上所示的報酬率,以及在你們更新之後資本支出成本看起來略偏高的情況。那麼現在等同PPA的價格是否已經高於90美元——甚至高於100美元?對此有任何評論嗎?我知道它有點像固定容量費的轉嫁,但你會怎麼看?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So given the structure, the dollar per megawatt hour thing doesn't really matter because of the way we've structured it. I think if you were to do the math and expect a capacity -- or sorry, an expected usage off the data center, it's in the probably $85 to $90 plus range. But we really don't focus on that, right?
是的。所以在這個架構下,每兆瓦時多少美元其實不太重要,因為我們的結構設計方式就是如此。我想如果你去做數學推算,並以資料中心的預期用電量來估算,大概會落在每兆瓦時85到90美元以上的區間。但我們其實不會把重點放在那個指標上,對吧?
It's all about -- it's good for the customer to not focus that way, and it's good for us to not focus that way. So that we -- this structure provides the certainty and the returns that we need for our investors, and it also provides flexibility and ways for the customer to think about managing their own risk depending on what their views look like.
重點在於——對客戶而言,不用那種方式去聚焦是好的;對我們而言,不用那種方式去聚焦也是好的。因此,這個架構能提供我們投資人所需要的確定性與報酬,同時也提供客戶彈性,讓他們可以依據自身觀點來思考如何管理風險。
So we could hedge up that variable piece if they wanted, and that collateral would be their requirement. But we built as much flexibility in here because we started from the beginning with what do our shareholders need, how do we serve our customer and how do we serve the communities around it. That's how we've approached data centers.
所以如果他們想要,我們可以把那個變動部分做避險,而相應的擔保品就會是他們的要求。但我們在這裡納入了盡可能多的彈性,因為我們從一開始就以「股東需要什麼、我們如何服務客戶、以及如何服務周邊社區」作為出發點。這就是我們處理資料中心的方式。
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Nicholas Campanella - Analyst
Maybe pivoting quick to just PJM. You kind of outlined in your contracted cash flow visibility walk, the potential to do something with the 2 gigs of upgrades in PJM. So just maybe an update on how you're thinking about the bilateral process or the procurement and how to think about that?
也許快速轉到PJM。你在談合約現金流可見度的說明中,提到在PJM有可能針對那2GW的升級做些事情。所以能否更新一下你們如何看待雙邊流程或採購,以及該如何思考這件事?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
So it's a multipronged approach, right? There is the long-term auction opportunity, which we will bid into. And we're also in the bilateral conversations as we speak. The additional capacity that those upgrades offer are going to be valuable to anybody who wants to connect inside of PJM and not be subject to curtailments.
所以這是一個多管齊下的方法,對吧?有長期拍賣的機會,我們會去投標。同時我們也正在進行雙邊對話。那些升級所帶來的額外容量,對任何想在PJM內部併網、且不想受限於限發(curtailments)的人都很有價值。
So we know that it's valuable, and we are continuing to monitor and we will bid in through any process. The way to think about it is I am going to invest capital for this company in a place where we can get long-term durable cash flows. 15-year auction proceeds, that makes sense. And so would a bilateral conversation of the like term.
所以我們知道它很有價值,我們也會持續監控,並透過任何流程去投標。你可以這樣理解:我會把公司的資本投到能帶來長期、可持續現金流的地方。15年的拍賣收入,這是合理的。同樣期限的雙邊對話也一樣合理。
Operator
Operator
Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs.
Carly Davenport,高盛。
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Carly Davenport - Analyst
To start, maybe just a quick follow-up on Nick's question there. As you think about the upgrade opportunities, are you able to share how much of the 2 gigawatts is kind of economic at the $555 per megawatt day cap just to sort of size the opportunity on the central procurement side?
首先,可能只是快速跟進一下 Nick 剛才的問題。當你們思考升級機會時,能否分享一下在每兆瓦日 555 美元上限下,這 2 吉瓦中大約有多少是具經濟性的,好讓我們大致衡量集中採購端的機會規模?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
So if you -- depending on how you interpret that $555 cap, meaning can they procure above or not? The way I think about it, Carly, is it's probably about less than half of that 2,000 would go through that auction that way. But we continue to have bilateral conversations on all 2,000 megawatts.
所以如果你——取決於你如何解讀那個 555 美元的上限,也就是他們是否可以在上限之上採購?Carly,我的看法是,這 2,000 之中可能不到一半會以那種方式走拍賣。但我們仍在就全部 2,000 兆瓦持續進行雙邊對話。
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Carly Davenport - Analyst
Got it. Okay. Very helpful. And then maybe just on the capital allocation side, as you talked about in prepared, it's kind of largely through the buyback program for the year at this point. How are you thinking about potential for incremental capital to be allocated there just as you think about where the equity is trading from a valuation standpoint?
了解。好。非常有幫助。接著可能談談資本配置方面,正如你在事先準備的發言中提到的,到目前為止今年主要是透過回購計畫。從估值角度看,考量到股價目前的交易水準,你們如何看待把額外資本增量配置到那裡的可能性?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Carly, I think as we sit here today, to the extent that we have the ability to upsize the program, that will somewhat depend on where we land from a cash flow perspective for the year. If we're executing against this project and spending the capital that we had outlined, that's where we would see our money going because we see this project as being really valuable at the end of the day. But certainly, if the opportunity exists to be able to upsize the program with incremental cash flow, we'll definitely do that.
Carly,我想以我們今天坐在這裡的情況來看,若我們有能力擴大該計畫規模,某種程度上將取決於我們今年的現金流表現。如果我們正在執行這個專案並投入我們先前所概述的資本,那就是我們會把資金投向的地方,因為我們認為這個專案最終非常有價值。但當然,如果有機會能以額外的現金流來擴大該計畫,我們一定會這麼做。
Operator
Operator
Michael Sullivan, Wolfe.
Michael Sullivan,Wolfe。
Michael Sullivan - Analyst
Michael Sullivan - Analyst
I was going to ask if you could just elaborate a little more on what you're looking at on the funding side of things. I think you alluded to potential capital partners. We've seen Williams do something like that relatively recently. And then just what that can do for you from a balance sheet flexibility, credit metric standpoint?
我想請你們再多闡述一下在資金籌措方面你們正在看的內容。我想你們提到可能引入資本合作夥伴。我們看到 Williams 相對近期做過類似的事。以及這對你們在資產負債表彈性、信用指標方面能帶來什麼影響?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So Sully, I mean right now, the base case is that we just fund all of this on balance sheet and all that really results in is, we've previously spoken about being able to hit our 3 times leverage ratio in 2028. If we were to move -- do this project and fund it on balance sheet, that just gets extended out to 2029. But there still would be deleveraging over the period for sure, even while we're funding the project.
是的。所以 Sully,我是說目前基本情境是我們就全部在資產負債表內為這些項目融資,而其結果其實就是——我們先前談過我們能在 2028 年達到 3 倍槓桿比。如果我們要推進——做這個專案並在資產負債表內融資,那只是把時間延後到 2029 年。但在這段期間肯定仍會去槓桿,即使我們同時在為專案提供資金。
Obviously, if we pursue something that involves a partner, whether it be the Williams type structure or any other structure and that creates some incremental capacity, then honestly, that probably provides for more opportunity to increase the annual buyback program more than anything else.
顯然,如果我們採取包含合作夥伴的方案,不論是 Williams 那種類型的架構或任何其他架構,並因此創造一些額外的容量,那老實說,這大概最主要是為提高年度回購計畫規模提供更多空間。
Michael Sullivan - Analyst
Michael Sullivan - Analyst
Okay. And in terms of making that decision, is it just you need to leg into more of these agreements? Or it's just irrespective of that, it's still in conversation.
好的。那在做這個決策方面,是不是你們需要逐步簽進更多這類協議?還是說不管是否如此,這仍在洽談中?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I mean making that decision is really just a function of having the concerted conversations with potential partners and coming up with a structure that we think makes a lot of sense for us economically. And so we certainly intend to do that.
我的意思是,做這個決策其實就是取決於與潛在合作夥伴進行深入的對話,並提出一個我們認為在經濟上對我們非常合理的架構。因此我們當然打算這麼做。
Clearly, having the contract is important because the partners need to understand what they're theoretically investing into. And I think we're definitely getting to a point where those conversations can really start to happen in earnest.
很明顯,合約很重要,因為合作夥伴需要了解他們理論上是在投資什麼。我想我們確實正走到一個階段,這些對話可以真正開始認真推進。
Michael Sullivan - Analyst
Michael Sullivan - Analyst
Okay. Very helpful. And Rob, if you could just give us your latest thoughts on the ERCOT market pricing dynamic. I think people watching all-time peaks, limited volatility this year. But then at the same time, a lot of folks following this batch process, which seems to have a lot of load coming, but forward is not really reacting. Curious, you think what's kind of driving the pricing action there?
好的。非常有幫助。另外 Rob,能否請你分享一下你對 ERCOT 市場定價動態的最新看法?我想大家看到歷史高峰、今年波動有限。但同時也有很多人關注這個批次(batch)流程,看起來會有大量負載進來,但遠期價格並沒有太大反應。很好奇你認為是什麼在驅動那裡的價格走勢?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So Sully, you're referring to the fact that the ERCOT market is not valuing anything right now. Prices are low. They're low out the curve. People thought that maybe some announcements around batch would have driven those curves up. But what we've seen in markets over the last couple of decades is until it's real, it's not. And so things like concerns around delays, things like when is the stuff going to hit the ground, that's impacting, call it, the '27, '28 time frame in the curves today.
是的。所以 Sully,你指的是 ERCOT 市場目前沒有在給任何東西定價。價格很低。整條遠期曲線都很低。人們原本以為圍繞 batch 的一些公告可能會把那些曲線推高。但我們在過去幾十年的市場中看到的是:在它成為現實之前,它就不算數。因此像是對延遲的擔憂、像是這些東西何時能真正落地,正在影響今天曲線中所謂 2027、2028 年的時間區間。
At the end of the day, Texas is still a growing market. And it's got some battery and solar development to absorb through, call it, '26, '27 and maybe into a little bit into '28. If the data center market -- or sorry, data center development slows down, that inflection point changes or gets pushed out.
歸根結底,德州仍是一個成長中的市場。而且在 2026、2027 年,甚至可能延伸到 2028 年的一小段時間內,仍有一些電池與太陽能開發需要被消化。如果資料中心市場——或抱歉,資料中心開發放緩,那個拐點就會改變或被往後推。
But the fundamental doesn't change. ERCOT needs generation in the medium term because we can't get back to the place where we were five years ago. And given the tax implications or whatever subsidies for batteries and solar going away in, call it, '27, that build will dramatically reduce over time and the market tightens. And remember, you don't need all 500 gigawatts. You don't even need a third of that to really tighten this market up to a place where everybody will be grateful that they have generation to support their customer loads.
但基本面不會改變。ERCOT 在中期需要發電資源,因為我們不可能回到五年前的狀態。而且考量到稅務影響或不論是什麼、對電池與太陽能的補貼在大約 2027 年會消失,這類建置會隨時間大幅下降,市場就會收緊。而且記住,你不需要全部 500 吉瓦。你甚至不需要其中的三分之一,就足以讓這個市場收緊到一個大家都會慶幸自己擁有發電資源、能支撐其客戶負載的程度。
Operator
Operator
Angie Storozynski, Seaport.
Angie Storozynski,Seaport。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
I just wanted to talk a little bit more about financing of the growth and how that's going to flow into your free cash flow. So basically, as we sit here today, I'm assuming that $1.5 billion out of the $3.2 billion of total CapEx is financed with debt. Is that fair? I mean that is assuming that 3 times net debt to EBITDA for the project. And then how does that interest flow through the free cash flow that you will be reporting? And I understand that it's pre-growth, just the mechanics of the accounting for that interest.
我想再多談一點成長投資的融資,以及這將如何流入你們的自由現金流。所以基本上,以我們目前的情況來看,我假設總資本支出 32 億美元中的 15 億美元是以債務融資。這樣合理嗎?我的意思是,這是基於該專案淨負債對 EBITDA 3 倍的假設。那麼這些利息會如何反映到你們將要報告的自由現金流中?我理解你們的口徑是成長前(pre-growth),我只是想了解利息在會計處理上的機制。
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Angie, the interest expense will be -- it's IDC, so it will be capitalized. So we don't -- that wouldn't have an impact on our free cash flow before growth at the end of the day.
是的。Angie,利息費用將會——它是 IDC(建造期間利息),所以會資本化。因此我們——最終它不會對我們的成長前自由現金流造成影響。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
And the assumption is that it's going to be basically Holdco unamortizing debt, right? So when I try to see what is the fully loaded return that these assets provide, I don't amortize this debt. I just account for the interest expense.
而假設是基本上會是控股公司層級(Holdco)的不攤還債務,對吧?所以當我試著看這些資產提供的完全負擔報酬率時,我不會攤還這筆債。我只會把利息費用納入考量。
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I think that's probably fair. Just assume that there is a permanent capital structure related to the project of 3 times.
是的。我想那大概是合理的。就假設與該專案相關存在一個 3 倍的永久資本結構。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Yes. And then this 25% that you show as a deduction against EBITDA for maintenance CapEx and tax, I mean, the assumption is, right, that even in '29 or 2030, you're not a cash taxpayer, right?
是的。然後你們把 25% 顯示為對 EBITDA 的扣減,用於維護性資本支出與稅負,我的意思是,假設是對吧,即使在 2029 或 2030 年,你們也不是現金納稅人,對吧?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's right. We provided what is otherwise kind of the long-term run rate. That doesn't necessarily suggest that, that is what the cash flow number would be in the early years when we have the benefit of the various tax shields.
沒錯。我們提供的是一個其他情況下可視為長期常態水準(run rate)的數字。那不一定表示在早期年度、當我們受益於各種稅盾時,現金流數字就會是那樣。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Okay. And what's the -- like roughly the math for maintenance CapEx for this sort of an asset? Is it, say, $50 million a year? Like what's the ballpark?
好的。那像這類資產的維護性資本支出(maintenance CapEx)大概怎麼估算?比如說一年 5,000 萬美元?大概的區間是多少?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
We're not going to provide that just right now, Angie. We'll provide that at a later date.
Angie,我們目前暫時不會提供這個數字。我們會在之後的時間點提供。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Okay. That's fine. And then secondly, so I mean, I'm looking at the breakdown between the cost of turbines versus the EPC contract. I mean, can you give us a sense, for example, that EPC component seems pretty big. Is there like the cost of new build advantage, is that mostly on the turbine side in a sense that as you announce additional projects, there is some sort of a market-based adjustment for the EPC component? How do we think about that?
好的。沒問題。第二個問題,我在看渦輪機成本和 EPC 合約之間的拆分。EPC 那一塊看起來相當大。能否請你們說明一下,例如所謂新建成本優勢,主要是體現在渦輪機端嗎?也就是說,當你們宣布更多專案時,EPC 組件是否會有某種基於市場的調整?我們應該怎麼理解?
Matthew Pistner - President
Matthew Pistner - President
Angie, I think -- this is Matt. I think the way to think about that is the EPC has two elements to it. It's the labor piece. They also bring a balance of plant equipment piece to it. So think about the turbines as the OEM and then a lot of the balance of equipment comes from the EPC. So that's why it may look a little bit higher than what you would think just the OEM providing everything view would be.
Angie,我想——我是 Matt。我認為可以這樣理解:EPC 有兩個要素。一個是人工(勞務)部分。他們也會提供一部分廠內平衡設備(balance of plant equipment)。所以把渦輪機視為 OEM 供應,而很多平衡設備則由 EPC 提供。因此,EPC 看起來可能會比你以為「只有 OEM 提供全部」的情境更高一些。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Awesome. And then just the last question. So I appreciate the Virginia rejoining RGGI as a drag. Is there any other drag like related to below-market hedges for LS Power beyond '26, like as I think about '27 or '28?
太好了。最後一個問題。我理解維吉尼亞重新加入 RGGI 會帶來一些拖累。除了這個之外,LS Power 是否還有其他拖累,例如 2026 年之後的低於市價避險?比如我在看 2027 或 2028 年。
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So Angie, the portfolio did come with some hedges that extended beyond 2026, not nearly as much as there were in 2026, but there were some hedges in 2027 that the portfolio did come over. And obviously, given when those were struck, those were struck at a slightly below level -- market level relative to today.
Angie,這個投資組合確實帶有一些延伸到 2026 年之後的避險部位;但規模遠不如 2026 年那麼多,不過在 2027 年確實有一些避險是隨投資組合一併轉入的。而且很明顯,考量到當時建立避險的時間點,那些價格相較於今天的市場水準是略低的。
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
Angie Storozynski - Analyst
And you're not going to say what percentage or how big a drag?
那你們不會說是什麼比例或拖累有多大嗎?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
We'll certainly provide that detail when we come out with 2027 guidance in our next earnings call.
我們會在下一次財報電話會議、發布 2027 年指引時,提供那個細節。
Operator
Operator
Moses Sutton, BNP Paribas.
Moses Sutton,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Moses Sutton - Analyst
Moses Sutton - Analyst
Congrats on the deal. To clarify Nick's question maybe through -- maybe more correct language here, would it be fair to consider the return structure as $1,150 a megawatt day, which gets you to $500 million EBITDA and that the P&L costs like O&M and fuel and how much you're using it are passed through on grossed up to revenue? And given later projects would have higher-priced turbines and EPC, is it fair to then assume cost of new entry you might assume on CCGTs is well above $1,200 a megawatt day?
恭喜完成交易。為了釐清 Nick 的問題,也許用更精確的說法:是否可以把報酬結構視為每兆瓦日 1,150 美元,對應到 5 億美元 EBITDA,而損益表上的成本(例如運維 O&M、燃料,以及使用量)則以加總後轉嫁(pass-through)並反映在收入端?另外,考量到後續專案的渦輪機與 EPC 價格會更高,那是否可以合理假設 CCGT 的新進入成本(cost of new entry)會遠高於每兆瓦日 1,200 美元?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Do you want to take that?
你要回答這題嗎?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Moses, we are not going to comment specifically on any of the specific terms of the contract. You've obviously done the math and depending on where you want to come out, we are squarely looking at a project that is within that 12% to 15% return. And so, however, that comes out in terms of your math, and that's what you should run with, but we're not going to comment specifically on that.
Moses,我們不會就合約的任何具體條款做出評論。你顯然已經做了推算;不論你怎麼推到那個結果,我們明確是在看一個報酬率落在 12% 到 15% 的專案。所以你的數學怎麼算出來,就以那個為基礎,但我們不會針對細節做具體評論。
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
And Moses, on the future -- just to be clear on -- to answer your question, but also for clarity everywhere. If the cost of the build goes up over time, our expectations of return on your cash flow or on your investment don't change, right? So we will -- and we have open conversation with customers about that. We will always sign deals inside of our 12% to 15% hurdles always.
Moses,關於未來——為了清楚回答你的問題,也讓大家都更明白。如果建造成本隨時間上升,我們對你的現金流或投資的報酬預期不會改變,對吧?所以我們會——而且我們也會就此與客戶保持開放的溝通。我們永遠只會在 12% 到 15% 的門檻報酬率之內簽案,永遠如此。
Moses Sutton - Analyst
Moses Sutton - Analyst
Got it. Very helpful. And on that annualized capacity payment, does it simply switch on at COD? Or is it a multiyear stage ramp as the data center is ramping its own site plus the data center utilization?
了解。非常有幫助。關於那個年化容量費(annualized capacity payment),是在商轉日(COD)就直接啟動嗎?還是會隨著資料中心自身場址建置與使用率提升而分多年分階段爬坡?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It switches on immediately upon COD.
在 COD 時會立即啟動。
Operator
Operator
Nick Amicucci, Evercore ISI.
Nick Amicucci,Evercore ISI。
Nicholas Amicucci - Equity Analyst
Nicholas Amicucci - Equity Analyst
Just wanted to get sense, too. Bruce, kind of where we get confidence on kind of the 2026 guidance and where we can kind of shake out just given that we kind of have obviously more subdued prices in ERCOT and then kind of the benefit that you could see in PJM there.
也想請教一下。Bruce,我們對 2026 年指引的信心主要來自哪些因素?以及在目前 ERCOT 價格相對偏弱、同時 PJM 可能帶來一些利多的情況下,我們應該怎麼看這個落點?
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bruce Chung - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So Nick, I mean, obviously, as we said on the -- in the prepared remarks, given kind of where the first half has landed, we would probably forecast ourselves to be in the -- below the midpoint of the guidance range. But we still feel confident that we'll be within guidance range.
是的。所以 Nick,正如我們在事先準備的發言中提到的,考量上半年目前的落點,我們可能會預估自己會落在指引區間的中位數以下。但我們仍然有信心會落在指引區間之內。
And a lot of that confidence is really based on where we see the current fleet being hedged for the balance of the year, which is pretty much substantially hedged for the balance of the year and then how that gets layered on top of how we've matched our supply and committed load.
而這份信心很大一部分來自於我們看到現有機組在今年剩餘期間的避險狀況:基本上今年剩餘期間已經大幅度完成避險;此外,還有我們如何在供給與已承諾負載之間做匹配,並在其上疊加管理。
And most of the committed load that we would have expected for the year has essentially been acquired or set up. And so therefore, that's the sort of visibility we have with respect to earnings and margins for the balance of the year.
我們原本預期今年會有的大部分已承諾負載,基本上都已經取得或完成配置。因此,這就是我們對今年剩餘期間的獲利與利潤率所具備的可視性。
Nicholas Amicucci - Equity Analyst
Nicholas Amicucci - Equity Analyst
Great. And then just as we think about the upgrade opportunity in the PJM, so those 2 gigawatts, I know you had said roughly half we can think about in the RFP. But when we think about that kind of CT-to-CCGT conversion, just where would -- what's kind of like the rule of thumb if we're thinking about that relative to -- from a build cost relative to the $2,700 on the greenfield side?
很好。再來談 PJM 的升級機會,那 2GW 我知道你們說大約一半可以放在 RFP 裡思考。但如果我們在想那種 CT 轉 CCGT 的改造,跟綠地案(greenfield)每千瓦 2,700 美元的建造成本相比,有沒有一個大概的經驗法則?
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Lower and faster.
更低、也更快。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Robert Gaudette for closing remarks.
問答環節到此結束。現在我想把電話交回給 Robert Gaudette 做結語。
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Gaudette - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We're pleased with the quarter and with the progress we outlined today. We will always be disciplined with the allocation of your capital. The update reinforces why we believe BYOP is the right model for serving large load growth, bringing new supply alongside new demand, strengthening the grid and protecting existing customers. There is work ahead, but we're executing well and remain confident in the opportunity and our ability to create long-term value for shareholders.
謝謝,也謝謝各位今天早上加入我們。我們對本季表現以及今天所說明的進展感到滿意。我們將始終以嚴謹紀律來配置各位的資本。這次更新再次強化了我們為何相信 BYOP 是服務大型負載成長的正確模式:在新增需求的同時導入新增供給、強化電網並保護既有客戶。前方仍有工作要做,但我們執行良好,並對這個機會以及我們為股東創造長期價值的能力保持信心。
Thank you again for your time and for your interest in NRG.
再次感謝各位撥冗,以及對 NRG 的關注。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。本次會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。