約翰·伯傑 (John Berger) 和埃里克·威廉姆斯 (Eric Williams) 將在電話會議中討論 Sunnova 對增加現金生成以及透過其經銷商和供應商網絡為客戶提供服務的承諾。他們強調了他們在增加客戶、增加資產資本和提高成本效率方面所取得的成功。該公司已做好充分利用當前宏觀環境的準備,並計劃將價值傳遞給經銷商和客戶。他們專注於優化現金產生、減少資本支出和改善現金流。
該公司正在考慮再融資和債務償還方案,重點是維持槓桿和償還債務。他們成功地降低了服務成本,並正在轉變經銷商付款結構以獲得營運資金優勢。還討論了即將到來的選舉對該行業的影響,重點是公用事業費率、設備價格和儲存附加率。該公司對他們執行計劃和推動現金產生的能力充滿信心。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Sunnova's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
早安,歡迎參加 Sunnova 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。
Today's call is being recorded, and we have allocated an hour for prepared remarks and Q&A.
今天的電話會議正在錄音,我們分配了一個小時來準備發言和問答。
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Rodney McMahan, Vice President, Investor Relations at Sunnova.
這次,我想將會議交給 Sunnova 投資者關係副總裁羅德尼·麥克馬漢 (Rodney McMahan)。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Rodney McMahan - Vice President, Investor Relations
Rodney McMahan - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, operator.
謝謝你,接線生。
Before we begin, please note that during today's call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties as described in our slide presentation, earnings press release and our 2023 Form 10-K.
在開始之前,請注意,在今天的電話會議中,我們將做出前瞻性聲明,這些聲明受到幻燈片演示、收益新聞稿和2023 年10-K 表格中所述的各種風險和不確定性的影響。
Please see those documents for additional information regarding those factors that may affect these forward-looking statements.
請參閱這些文件,以了解有關可能影響這些前瞻性陳述的因素的更多資訊。
On the call today are John Berger, Sunnova's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Eric Williams, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
今天參加電話會議的是 Sunnova 董事長兼執行長 John Berger;艾瑞克‧威廉斯(Eric Williams),執行副總裁兼財務長。
I will now turn the call over to John.
我現在將把電話轉給約翰。
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for today's call.
大家早安,感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。
I'll begin on slide 4, speaking to a format that should, by now, look familiar.
我將從投影片 4 開始,介紹一種現在看起來應該很熟悉的格式。
As we committed previously, increasing cash generation remains a top priority, underpinned by our commitment to work with our exceptional dealer and supplier network to serve our customers.
正如我們之前所承諾的那樣,增加現金產生仍然是首要任務,這是我們與卓越的經銷商和供應商網路合作為客戶提供服務的承諾的基礎。
And I am proud of the results our team is delivering related to these commitments.
我對我們的團隊在這些承諾方面所取得的成果感到自豪。
While the slide is familiar, you'll see that we added a commitment to serve our dealers and suppliers who often act as the face of Sunnova to our customers.
雖然這張投影片很熟悉,但您會看到我們添加了為經銷商和供應商提供服務的承諾,他們經常在客戶面前充當 Sunnova 的代言人。
Touching on each commitment.
觸及每一個承諾。
We provide a best-in-class platform to support our partners.
我們提供一流的平台來支持我們的合作夥伴。
The software and services we offer our dealers and the level of service we provide our customers make Sunnova the most attractive platform for both dealers and equipment manufacturers.
我們為經銷商提供的軟體和服務以及為客戶提供的服務水準使 Sunnova 成為經銷商和設備製造商最具吸引力的平台。
We remain keenly focused on growing our core adaptive energy customer base as we prioritize profitable growth through higher margins and credit quality over maximizing customer count.
我們仍然專注於發展我們的核心自適應能源客戶群,因為我們優先考慮透過提高利潤和信用品質來實現獲利成長,而不是最大限度地增加客戶數量。
Importantly, we've demonstrated that you can achieve both as through the first nine months of 2024, we added 76,600 customers, of which nearly 80% or approximately 60,000 were solar customers.
重要的是,我們已經證明您可以實現這兩點,因為到 2024 年前 9 個月,我們增加了 76,600 名客戶,其中近 80% 或大約 60,000 名是太陽能客戶。
We are maximizing the asset-level capital we generate, demonstrated by our success closing securitizations and tax capital commitments at significantly higher levels compared to last year.
我們正在最大限度地提高我們產生的資產水平資本,這從我們成功完成證券化和稅收資本承諾的水平明顯高於去年就可以看出。
Tax capital, which includes both traditional tax equity and credit transfer funds were up 100% year-over-year.
稅收資本(包括傳統稅收股權和信貸轉移資金)年增 100%。
We are successfully increasing our investment tax credit or ITC adder utilization, up significantly as we exited the third quarter and focused on a strong close to the year.
我們正在成功提高投資稅收抵免或 ITC 加法器利用率,隨著我們第三季的結束並專注於今年的強勁業績,這一數字顯著提高。
Our industry-leading decision to work with our dealers to originate all leases and PPAs after September 1, with domestic content is translating into meaningful cash flow, which I will explain in more detail later.
我們行業領先的決定是與我們的經銷商合作,在9 月1 日之後發起所有租賃和購電協議,其中包含國內內容,這一決定正在轉化為有意義的現金流,我將在稍後更詳細地解釋這一點。
And finally, we continue to drive cost efficiencies by rightsizing the organization with an emphasis on using technology and process redesign.
最後,我們繼續透過調整組織規模來提高成本效率,重點是使用技術和流程重新設計。
As you'll see in our results, since the end of 2023, we've made significant progress reducing our operations and maintenance expenses while turning attention to G&A, which is now on a path to significant reductions as we enter the fourth quarter and position the business for 2025.
正如您將在我們的結果中看到的那樣,自2023 年底以來,我們在減少營運和維護費用方面取得了重大進展,同時將注意力轉向一般管理費用,隨著我們進入第四季度和定位,一般管理費用現在正走在大幅削減的道路上2025 年的業務。
Having recapped our priorities, the next few slides highlight our progress in more detail.
回顧了我們的優先事項後,接下來的幾張投影片將更詳細地強調我們的進展。
Turning to slide 5.
轉到投影片 5。
We're mindful that integral to our goal of powering energy independence is a large network of dealers dedicated to the same.
我們注意到,我們推動能源獨立的目標不可或缺的是致力於實現這一目標的大型經銷商網路。
This network of entrepreneurs is the backbone of who we are and allows us to leverage industry-leader expertise, managerial skills and knowledge of local markets to attract new customers.
這個企業家網絡是我們的支柱,使我們能夠利用行業領導者的專業知識、管理技能和當地市場的知識來吸引新客戶。
To ensure our dealers have the right tools to succeed, we strive to provide them with a best-in-class platform with a heavy focus on software and customer service.
為了確保我們的經銷商擁有成功的正確工具,我們努力為他們提供一流的平台,並專注於軟體和客戶服務。
Giving our dealers the right tools and support helps us win together and allows us to focus on driving faster installations and service activations, which benefits our customers, our dealers and Sunnova.
為我們的經銷商提供合適的工具和支援有助於我們共同獲勝,並使我們能夠專注於推動更快的安裝和服務激活,這對我們的客戶、我們的經銷商和 Sunnova 都有好處。
Importantly, accelerating the time from origination to placing a system in service is better for our customer and better for our working capital.
重要的是,縮短系統從啟動到投入使用的時間對於我們的客戶和我們的營運資金都更好。
Additionally, in the immediate term, we've been working with our dealer network to flip the work in progress or flip the WIP to further capture the domestic content adder on systems originated prior to our September 1, requirement for new originations and that are still pending install.
此外,在短期內,我們一直在與我們的經銷商網路合作,翻轉正在進行的工作或翻轉WIP,以進一步捕獲9 月1 日之前發起的系統上的國內內容添加器,這是對新發起的要求,並且仍然是待安裝。
I will discuss flip the WIP in greater detail shortly.
我很快就會更詳細地討論翻轉 WIP。
Turning to slide 6.
轉到投影片 6。
Many of you have been following our industry for some time now and understand its seasonality and how we see the greatest demands on working capital during the third quarter as heavy summer customer originations increase dealer payments ahead of the funding we received from our warehouse facilities and tax capital funding.
你們中的許多人已經關注我們的行業一段時間了,了解其季節性,以及我們如何看待第三季度對營運資金的最大需求,因為大量的夏季客戶來源增加了經銷商付款,而我們從倉庫設施和稅收中收到的資金卻更多。
This working capital seasonality is the primary driver for the reduction in unrestricted cash in the third quarter and even with record originations this summer.
這種營運資金的季節性是第三季不受限制的現金減少的主要動力,甚至今年夏天的現金發放量也創下了紀錄。
I'm pleased that we maintained an unrestricted cash balance of over $200 million.
我很高興我們保持了超過 2 億美元的不受限制的現金餘額。
We enter the fourth quarter well positioned to return to positive cash generation during the period as we closed, within the first full week of October, a tax capital fund that provided an additional $35 million at closing.
進入第四季度後,我們已做好準備,在此期間恢復正現金流,因為我們在 10 月的第一周內關閉了一項稅收資本基金,該基金在關閉時額外提供了 3500 萬美元。
We expect to generate at least an additional $69 million of unrestricted cash this year, which will put us at or above our $100 million cash generation target for 2024.
我們預計今年將產生至少 6,900 萬美元的額外現金,這將使我們達到或超過 2024 年 1 億美元的現金產生目標。
Our expanded capital markets team is hard at work progressing additional securitizations and tax capital funds.
我們擴大的資本市場團隊正在努力推動更多的證券化和稅收資本基金。
Mindful of the importance of transitioning in-service systems from our warehouse facilities to a long-term fixed rate securitization.
牢記將使用中的系統從我們的倉庫設施過渡到長期固定利率證券化的重要性。
We closed a 4(a)(2) private securitization this month, and I look forward to closing an additional securitization, perhaps even two, this quarter.
我們本月完成了一項 4(a)(2) 私人證券化,我期待本季完成一項額外的證券化,甚至可能是兩項。
Ultimately, several factors moving in tandem give us confidence in affirming our full year unrestricted cash build and the longer-term outlook for the same.
最終,幾個因素的共同作用使我們有信心確認全年不受限制的現金累積及其長期前景。
Specifically, these factors include.
具體來說,這些因素包括。
A greater contribution from the domestic content adder, which significantly increased our weighted average ITC rate beginning in September when we instituted our domestic content dealer requirement for all new TPO originations.
國內內容增加者的貢獻更大,從 9 月開始,我們對所有新 TPO 起源製定了國內內容經銷商要求,這顯著提高了我們的加權平均 ITC 稅率。
Higher-margin systems originated earlier in the year, receiving permission to operate.
利潤率較高的系統於今年稍早啟動,並獲得營運許可。
Additional cost savings and efficiencies from our technology platform and scale.
我們的技術平台和規模可進一步節省成本並提高效率。
And less working capital needed as we better align our growth spending with various tax capital and warehouse funding schedules.
隨著我們更好地將成長支出與各種稅收資本和倉庫融資計劃結合起來,所需的營運資金也會減少。
Affirming our full year and multiyear cash guidance positions us well to address our upcoming debt maturities, which, as Eric will discuss, we expect to include a combination of opportunistic paydowns and a regular way refinancing of any remaining, both of which we are currently discussing with our banking partners.
確認我們的全年和多年現金指導使我們能夠很好地解決即將到來的債務到期問題,正如埃里克將討論的那樣,我們預計將包括機會主義還款和任何剩餘債務的定期再融資相結合,這兩者都是我們目前正在討論的與我們的銀行合作夥伴。
We've included slide 7.
我們已附上投影片 7。
To underscore the basis of our confidence to achieve our cash generation targets, and we thought it important to highlight the multiyear trend that reflects the success of our stated priorities in action.
為了強調我們實現現金產生目標的信心基礎,我們認為重要的是要強調反映我們所聲明的優先行動取得成功的多年趨勢。
Here, we have focused on the seasonally relevant third quarter of each year and are showing the spread between customer agreements and incentives revenues and the change in unrestricted cash, excluding proceeds from the corporate capital we raised in each of the prior third quarters.
在這裡,我們將重點放在每年與季節相關的第三季度,並顯示客戶協議和激勵收入之間的利差以及不受限制的現金變化,不包括我們在前三個季度籌集的公司資本的收益。
You can see that the change in unrestricted cash relative to the aforementioned revenue has progressed from a negative 5.8 times in the third quarter just three years ago to nearly at parity this quarter and based on our expectations, inflecting to a positive net generation as we end the year with multiple levers available to achieve this outcome.
您可以看到,不受限制的現金相對於上述收入的變化已從三年前第三季度的負5.8 倍發展到本季度幾乎持平,並且根據我們的預期,隨著我們結束,淨發電量變為正值今年有多種手段可以達成這項成果。
Turning to slide 8.
轉到投影片 8。
By now, you are well aware that a meaningful contributor to our cash generation forecast are the ITC adders; something we have prioritized throughout the year, even going back to closed tax equity funds to monetize their value retroactively, which sets us apart from others in our space.
到目前為止,您已經清楚知道,ITC 加法器對我們的現金產生預測做出了有意義的貢獻;這是我們全年優先考慮的事情,甚至回到封閉的稅收股權基金以追溯其價值貨幣化,這使我們與我們領域的其他公司區分開來。
I'm proud of how our teams work together to stack that cash and as we look ahead to areas of focus this quarter.
我對我們的團隊如何共同努力累積現金以及我們展望本季的重點領域感到自豪。
I'll highlight two key initiatives I mentioned earlier.
我將重點介紹我之前提到的兩項關鍵舉措。
First, we have led the industry by working with our dealers to ensure that all lease and PPA systems originated beginning September 1, meet the eligibility requirements to qualify for domestic content.
首先,我們與經銷商合作,確保所有租賃和 PPA 系統自 9 月 1 日起啟動,滿足國內內容的資格要求,從而引領產業發展。
Doing so has significantly increased our weighted ITC rate on origination by 17% to 42.2% in October versus the average for July and August, and we expect further increases as we round out the year, targeting a weighted average of approximately 45% in 2025 and 2026.
與 7 月和 8 月的平均值相比,我們 10 月的加權 ITC 率顯著提高了 17% 至 42.2%,我們預計今年末會進一步提高,目標是 2025 年加權平均率約為 45%, 2026年。
You'll recall that each 1% increase in our weighted average ITC rate on a full year basis generates approximately [$50 million] of additional cash.
您可能還記得,全年加權平均 ITC 稅率每增加 1%,就會產生約 [5000 萬美元] 的額外現金。
Second is flipping the WIP, whereby we add domestic content qualifying equipment to systems originated but not yet fully installed prior to our September 1, domestic content requirement.
其次是翻轉 WIP,即我們將國內內容合格設備添加到在 9 月 1 日國內內容要求之前發起但尚未完全安裝的系統中。
To date, we flipped systems worth $3 million of additional cash to Sunnova.
迄今為止,我們已向 Sunnova 轉售了價值 300 萬美元的額外現金系統。
Rounding out my highlights of the progress we made towards our key commitments, slide 9 shows the progress we've made to reduce our O&M and G&A expenses.
投影片 9 總結了我們在實現關鍵承諾方面所取得的進展,展示了我們在減少營運和維護及一般行政費用方面取得的進展。
Reflecting the benefit of scale, amplified by our focus on process improvement and use of technology, we've reduced these expenses as a percent of revenue by 48% and 5%, respectively.
我們將這些費用佔收入的比例分別降低了 48% 和 5%,這反映了規模效益,並透過我們對流程改善和技術使用的關注而放大。
We have additional reductions in the fourth quarter, some significant related to G&A, made evident on the graphs as you see these reductions increase to 65% and 35%, respectively.
我們在第四季度進行了額外的削減,其中一些與一般行政費用相關的重大削減,從圖表中可以明顯看出,這些削減分別增加到 65% 和 35%。
The team is demonstrating that they can do more with less, and I applaud the drive they bring to work each day.
團隊正在證明他們可以用更少的資源做更多的事情,我對他們每天工作的動力表示讚賞。
Turning to slide 10 and before I turn the call over to Eric, I'd be remiss if I didn't take a moment to recognize that we're talking only days before an important election; one that has created some uncertainty around our industry, prompting many questions from our investors.
轉向幻燈片 10,在我將電話轉給埃里克之前,如果我沒有花點時間意識到我們正在談論的只是距離重要選舉幾天的時間,那我就失職了;這給我們的行業帶來了一些不確定性,引發了我們投資者的許多問題。
You have asked me how a new administration on either side of the aisle would impact our current business and outlook.
您問我兩黨的新政府將如何影響我們目前的業務和前景。
While we all see and feel the polarization, I focus on the reality more than the rhetoric.
雖然我們都看到並感受到了兩極化,但我更關注現實而不是言語。
The reality is powering energy independence through the expansion of solar production enjoys bipartisan support on many levels.
現實情況是,透過擴大太陽能生產來推動能源獨立,在許多層面上得到了兩黨的支持。
Investment in clean, efficient and reliable energy infrastructure that insulates consumers from electricity cost inflation is just one of the many benefits and one on which we can all agree.
對清潔、高效和可靠的能源基礎設施的投資可以使消費者免受電力成本上漲的影響,這只是眾多好處之一,也是我們都同意的好處之一。
If we look specifically at the Inflation Reduction Act as a proxy for evaluating both parties' priorities, we see many of its key provisions appeal to both sides, whether it's the jobs it creates, the GDP growth it stimulates, the competition it provides to traditional utilities, its contribution to ever-increasing demands for energy and importantly, clean energy, including that needed to power AI and data centers, improving reliability and modernizing our energy grid for the digital age.
如果我們具體地將《降低通貨膨脹法案》作為評估雙方優先事項的代理,我們會發現它的許多關鍵條款對雙方都有吸引力,無論是它創造的就業機會、它刺激的GDP 增長、它為傳統經濟提供的競爭。所需的能源。
We can all agree these dynamics position Sunnova as part of a solution that both sides desire for our great country.
我們都同意這些動態將 Sunnova 定位為雙方都希望為我們偉大的國家提供的解決方案的一部分。
With that, I'll turn it over to Eric.
有了這個,我會把它交給艾瑞克。
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝約翰,大家早安。
Having joined the Sunnova team only four months ago in June, I can say that I've learned a lot and done so alongside some outstanding professionals.
僅僅四個月前的六月,我就加入了 Sunnova 團隊,可以說我學到了很多東西,並且與一些傑出的專業人士一起做到了這一點。
As you reflect on John's comments and the materials we have shared prior to this call, my hope is that you'll see this year's hard work become the foundation of delivering on our outlook.
當您思考約翰的評論和我們在本次電話會議之前分享的材料時,我希望您會看到今年的努力工作成為實現我們的前景的基礎。
Much of the heavy lifting is behind us, reflected in the pace of closing deals and our success capturing ITC adders, which demonstrates our transition is already largely complete.
大部分繁重的工作已經過去,這反映在完成交易的速度和我們成功捕獲 ITC 新增公司上,這表明我們的過渡基本上已經完成。
Our expanded and enhanced capital markets team can now execute more quickly and with better structures.
我們擴大和增強的資本市場團隊現在可以以更好的結構更快地執行。
It's worth highlighting that we previously net consumed cash to the tune of approximately $1 billion each year, even after investing in financing activities.
值得強調的是,我們以前每年淨消耗的現金約為 10 億美元,即使在投資融資活動之後也是如此。
We have now positioned Sunnova to move beyond merely operating as cash-neutral, instead providing credible visibility into significant positive unrestricted cash generation.
我們現在將 Sunnova 定位為不僅僅以現金中立的方式運營,而是為重要的、積極的、不受限制的現金生成提供可靠的可見性。
I recognize the team's accomplishment is no small thing.
我體認到團隊的成就非同小可。
That is the transition from consuming cash at a significant clip to becoming a cash-neutral platform.
這是從大量消耗現金到成為現金中性平台的轉變。
Taking something that is cash-neutral to cash positive often has less resistance.
將現金中性的東西轉變為現金積極的東西通常阻力較小。
Having completed 10 debt financings this year and 4 tax equity financings with more in the pipeline, we have the tools we need to deliver on our 2025 and 2026 cash goals.
今年已完成 10 項債務融資和 4 項稅收股權融資,還有更多正在進行中,我們擁有實現 2025 年和 2026 年現金目標所需的工具。
You'll recall that, last quarter, I affirmed one of my near-term priorities is simplifying the way we articulate our business to current and potential stakeholders.
您可能還記得,上個季度,我確認我的近期優先事項之一是簡化我們向現有和潛在利害關係人闡述業務的方式。
A step in that direction, I'm sure you've noticed fewer adjusted GAAP numbers with a greater emphasis on the trends you can observe in our reported results.
朝著這個方向邁出的一步,我相信您已經注意到調整後的 GAAP 數字更少,並且更加強調您在我們報告的結果中可以觀察到的趨勢。
Having joined Sunnova from the oil and gas industry, where non-GAAP measures are heavily relied upon and where many have existed for decades with many companies harmonizing around their use, I am certainly not opposed to the concept of non-GAAP, though I understand the importance of using discretion when defining such a measure.
我從石油和天然氣行業加入 Sunnova,該行業嚴重依賴非 GAAP 衡量標準,許多標準已經存在了數十年,許多公司都在協調使用這些標準,我當然不反對非 GAAP 概念,儘管我理解在定義此類措施時使用自由裁量權的重要性。
Accordingly, we've sunset our use of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted OpEx, and I'll talk more about an alternative measure that I'm tracking as I continue to give thought to helpful ways to discuss our results and measure our performance.
因此,我們已經停止使用調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的營運支出,我將更多地談論我正在追蹤的替代衡量標準,同時我將繼續考慮有用的方法來討論我們的結果和衡量我們的績效。
Before I dive deeper into that topic, I'll start on slide 12, with a few highlights from our reported results, starting with revenue, which at $235 million is up nearly $16 million or 7% sequentially, and $37 million or 19% year-over-year.
在深入探討主題之前,我將從投影片12 開始,介紹我們報告的業績中的一些要點,首先是收入,收入為2.35 億美元,比上一季度增長近1600 萬美元或7%,同比增長3700 萬美元或19% -同比。
Our interest income of nearly $40 million rose 9% and 26% sequentially and year-over-year, respectively.
我們的利息收入近 4,000 萬美元,分別比上一季和年增 9% 和 26%。
With our emphasis on cash generation and debt repayment, we also show principal proceeds of nearly $44 million, which, while they fell sequentially due to seasonality as customers sometimes use their tax refunds in the second quarter to make prepayments, we see a $3 million or 7% year-over-year rise.
由於我們強調現金產生和債務償還,我們還顯示了近4,400 萬美元的本金收益,雖然由於季節性原因,由於客戶有時會在第二季度使用退稅來預付款,因此本金收益連續下降,但我們看到了300 萬美元或300 萬美元的收益。
Coming up, I'll mention our full year outlook for principal proceeds and the recent increase in prepayments, which, you'll find, we expect to be up year-over-year and trending higher.
接下來,我將提到我們對本金收益的全年展望以及最近預付款的增加,您會發現,我們預計預付款將同比增長,並且呈上升趨勢。
Not surprisingly, our revenues, interest income and principal payments are all higher, thanks to the addition of 30% more customers and an increase in the gigawatts of solar power and megawatts of energy storage we manage that are up 25% and nearly 60%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.
毫不奇怪,我們的收入、利息收入和本金支付都更高,這要歸功於增加了30% 的客戶以及我們管理的千兆瓦太陽能和兆瓦能源儲存的增加,分別增加了25% 和近60%,分別以年計算。
As John mentioned earlier, we remain focused on growing our core adaptive energy customers, adding just over 20,000 such customers in the third quarter. bringing our cumulative solar customer count up to 365,000.
正如約翰之前提到的,我們仍然專注於發展我們的核心自適應能源客戶,第三季僅增加了 20,000 多個此類客戶。使我們的累計太陽能客戶數量達到 365,000 家。
Factoring in these additions, we now manage 2.9 gigawatts of solar power and 1,556 megawatt hours of energy storage.
考慮到這些增加的因素,我們現在管理著 2.9 吉瓦的太陽能和 1,556 兆瓦時的能源儲存。
Also quite impressive, we are nearing the 0.5 million customer mark with our total customer count at just under 423,000.
同樣令人印象深刻的是,我們的客戶數量已接近 50 萬大關,客戶總數略低於 423,000 人。
Finally, taking into consideration our current customer backlog and what we have placed in service in October, we expect the fourth quarter to see a significant step-up in customer additions.
最後,考慮到我們目前的客戶積壓以及我們在 10 月投入使用的服務,我們預計第四季度客戶數量將大幅增加。
As such, we continue to expect total gross customer additions for 2024 to fall within our guidance range of 110,000 to 120,000 customers, albeit to the lower end of that range.
因此,我們繼續預計 2024 年新增客戶總數將落在 110,000 至 120,000 名客戶的指導範圍內,儘管處於該範圍的下限。
I'm pleased with this outcome, given our team's intentional emphasis on originating business with strong margins, underpinned by strong credit quality.
我對這一結果感到滿意,因為我們的團隊有意強調以良好的信用品質為基礎,以高利潤開展業務。
Now I'll turn back to my earlier point about revisiting our key performance metrics and our use of non-GAAP measures.
現在我將回到我先前的觀點,重新檢視我們的關鍵績效指標和我們對非公認會計準則指標的使用。
Recognizing that we constructed both adjusted EBITDA plus ITCs and adjusted OpEx to serve as measures that eliminated the value we create for our stakeholders, I felt it appropriate to look for an alternative, less adjusted way to convey the same point, most importantly, the value we derive from the ITCs that are not fully captured on our income statement.
認識到我們建構了調整後的EBITDA 加ITC 和調整後的營運支出作為消除我們為利害關係人創造的價值的措施,我認為尋找一種調整較少的替代方式來傳達同樣的觀點是適當的,最重要的是,價值我們從未完全反映在損益表中的 ITC 中獲得效益。
For those of you who found the prior performance measures useful, whether in full or in part, we provide in the appendix to our earnings slides, all of the components we previously used to calculate both measures, so please use those that are most helpful to you.
對於那些發現先前的績效衡量指標有用的人,無論是全部還是部分,我們在收益幻燈片的附錄中提供了我們之前用於計算這兩個指標的所有組成部分,因此請使用那些對您最有幫助的衡量指標。
As a newcomer to the industry, I sought to understand Sunnova's business relative to other market participants, looking for both similarities and differences.
作為該行業的新人,我試圖了解 Sunnova 相對於其他市場參與者的業務,尋找相似點和差異。
What I found was interesting.
我發現很有趣。
In simplistic terms, I've come to understand that firms like ours create value for shareholders in three ways: first, through the origination of financial paper, whether through securitizations or tax capital; second, through servicing solar and related assets; and third, by retaining equity value in the long-term cash-generating assets we install and service for our customers.
簡單地說,我開始了解到像我們這樣的公司透過三種方式為股東創造價值:首先,透過金融票據的產生,無論是透過證券化還是稅收資本;其次,透過為太陽能及相關資產提供服務;第三,透過保留我們為客戶安裝和服務的長期現金產生資產的股權價值。
It's the latter that demonstrates John's vision of Sunnova competing with traditional utilities to provide energy independence for our customers.
後者體現了 John 的願景:Sunnova 與傳統公用事業公司競爭,為我們的客戶提供能源獨立。
Essentially, I see these as the three legs of Sunnova's value proposition.
本質上,我將這些視為 Sunnova 價值主張的三大支柱。
I'm sure you're familiar with how we measure the value we create through originating financial paper, though this too is something I'm reviewing with an eye to enhance, which I'll talk about shortly and is implied as the implied spread between our fully burdened unlevered return, less our weighted average cost of debt.
我相信您熟悉我們如何衡量我們透過原始財務票據創造的價值,儘管這也是我正在審查並著眼於增強的內容,我將很快討論這一點,並暗示為隱含利差我們的完全負擔的無槓桿回報減去我們的加權平均債務成本。
Regarding the second, I'll share that as I was getting to know John during the interview process, I was struck by his conviction that Sunnova is, at its core, a service company and not a financing company.
關於第二點,我將分享一下,當我在面試過程中逐漸了解約翰時,我對他的信念感到震驚,即 Sunnova 的核心是一家服務公司,而不是一家金融公司。
Whether you acquire one of our systems through a lease or through a loan, we are committed to providing you reliable power.
無論您是透過租賃還是貸款購買我們的系統之一,我們都致力於為您提供可靠的電力。
John's commitment to service is intrinsically linked to the upcoming third leg of our value story.
約翰對服務的承諾與我們即將到來的價值故事的第三部分有著內在的聯繫。
Our team not only maintains our customers' systems, we also service systems for others as Sunnova Repair Services or SRS, which generates strong margins and leverages some of the fixed costs associated with retaining a dynamic group of uniquely skilled and talented service professionals.
我們的團隊不僅維護客戶的系統,還為Sunnova Repair Services 或SRS 等其他系統提供服務,這可以產生豐厚的利潤,並利用與保留一群充滿活力的獨特技能和才華橫溢的服務專業人員相關的一些固定成本。
Moving to the third value driver, the equity value we retain in the largely 25 to 35 year assets we install and service for our customers.
轉向第三個價值驅動因素,我們在為客戶安裝和服務的大部分資產中保留了 25 至 35 年的股權價值。
Some peers in the sector choose to build their businesses less around this component as evidenced by their selling a larger portion of the assets' equity through further levering the underlying assets or outright selling their loans.
該行業的一些同行選擇較少圍繞這一組成部分建立業務,他們通過進一步槓桿化基礎資產或直接出售貸款來出售大部分資產股權就證明了這一點。
Sunnova has taken the approach of using the least expensive form of capital, which, for a period, was corporate debt, to invest in and retain meaningful ownership of these long-term cash-generative assets.
Sunnova採取了使用最便宜的資本形式(在一段時間內是公司債務)的方法來投資並保留這些長期現金生成資產的有意義的所有權。
Thus, if you look at Sunnova's consolidated statements of redeemable noncontrolling interest and equity, you'll see what we've summarized on slide 13.
因此,如果您查看 Sunnova 的可贖回非控制權益和股權合併報表,您將看到我們在投影片 13 中總結的內容。
Over the past four years, from the third quarter of 2020, shortly after the company's IPO, to this quarter, Sunnova's stockholder equity represented by the dark blue bar is up, on absolute terms, nearly 150%.
過去四年裡,從公司IPO後不久的2020年第三季到本季度,Sunnova深藍色長條代表的股東權益絕對值成長了近150%。
And when adjusted for the common shares we've issued over this period of time, our stockholders' equity is up 80% per share from just under $8 to over $14.
根據我們在這段時間內發行的普通股進行調整後,我們的股東權益每股上漲了 80%,從略低於 8 美元增加到超過 14 美元。
It's important to recognize that even as we report GAAP net losses through our consolidated statement of operations, something interesting is happening within equity where certain events such as the flip of tax equity partnerships result in the transfer of value from redeemable noncontrolling interest, or RNCI and noncontrolling interest, or NCI, into Sunnova's stockholders' equity.
重要的是要認識到,即使我們透過合併營運報表報告GAAP 淨虧損,股權內部也發生了一些有趣的事情,其中某些事件(例如稅務股權合夥企業的翻轉)導致價值從可贖回非控股權益(RNCI)轉移,非控制權益(NCI)納入 Sunnova 的股東權益。
While for a period of time, this long-term value sits within the jointly owned tax equity partnerships classified as RNCI or NCI, importantly, Sunnova has valuable interest in them as evidenced by the two case studies we've included on this slide as examples.
雖然在一段時間內,這種長期價值屬於被歸類為RNCI 或NCI 的共同擁有的稅務股權合夥企業,但重要的是,Sunnova 對它們具有寶貴的興趣,我們在這張幻燈片中作為示例包含的兩個案例研究證明了這一點。
In these instances, when the tax equity partnership flipped, Sunnova added a combined $110 million or $0.90 per share to its stockholder equity.
在這些情況下,當稅收股權合夥關係翻轉時,Sunnova 的股東權益總計增加了 1.1 億美元,即每股 0.90 美元。
Importantly, under GAAP, this $110 million of value transferred to Sunnova's shareholders as in addition to retained earnings or more specifically as a reduction to accumulated deficit never flows through our consolidated statement of operations.
重要的是,根據公認會計準則,這 1.1 億美元的價值轉移給 Sunnova 股東,作為留存收益之外,或更具體地說,作為累計赤字的減少,從未流經我們的合併營運報表。
Yet our accumulated deficit has fallen from approximately $500 million in 2020 to just $1.5 million as we closed the third quarter.
然而,截至第三季末,我們的累計赤字已從 2020 年的約 5 億美元降至僅 150 萬美元。
If you look at some of our peers in the space, you'll see the direction of travel is not only the inverse, but inverse in a meaningful way.
如果你看看我們在這個領域的一些同行,你會發現行進的方向不僅是相反的,而且是以一種有意義的方式相反。
I believe this differentiation, made visible in our stockholders' equity, demonstrates the investments we've made using a mix of asset-level and corporate-level debt have added significant long-term value for our shareholders.
我相信,這種差異在我們的股東權益中顯而易見,表明我們利用資產層面和公司層級債務的組合進行的投資為我們的股東增加了顯著的長期價值。
We will realize that value through our retained equity ownership and the cash-generating assets, which provides Sunnova the opportunity in the future to deliver growth, yield or a mix of both for investors.
我們將透過保留的股權和現金產生資產來實現這一價值,這為 Sunnova 未來提供了為投資者帶來成長、收益或兩者兼而有之的機會。
Accordingly, I believe using the GAAP measure of total stockholders' equity per share is a useful one to highlight the value we create for our investors.
因此,我認為使用公認會計準則來衡量每股股東權益總額對於強調我們為投資者創造的價值是有用的。
As we interact over the coming weeks, I welcome your feedback, and I will continue to reflect on this and other performance measures that I believe will help others understand and evaluate our business.
在我們未來幾週的互動中,我歡迎您提供回饋,我將繼續反思這項績效指標和其他績效指標,我相信這些指標將有助於其他人理解和評估我們的業務。
I'll add that I am keen to identify a useful measure focused on margins and our cost discipline.
我要補充一點,我熱衷於找到一個專注於利潤和我們的成本紀律的有用衡量標準。
So please stay tuned as we potentially introduce additional measures in the future.
因此,請繼續關注,我們將來可能會推出更多措施。
Moving on to slide 14.
繼續看投影片 14。
I mentioned earlier that while we saw a slight dip in the quarter-over-quarter principal proceeds, it's important to remember that the sequential change is affected by a seasonal increase in prepayment as customers use their tax refunds to reduce their loans in the second quarter.
我之前提到,雖然我們看到季度本金收益略有下降,但重要的是要記住,連續變化受到預付款季節性增加的影響,因為客戶在第二季度使用退稅來減少貸款。
Importantly, you can see our full year expectations of $190 million exceed the full year 2023 by 20%.
重要的是,您可以看到我們 1.9 億美元的全年預期比 2023 年全年高出 20%。
While lease and power purchase agreement customers comprise over 90% of our current originations, as of September 30, 2024, Sunnova's largely static loan portfolio exceeded $4 billion and includes more than $1 billion of amounts largely related to original issue discount.
雖然租賃和購電協議客戶占我們目前貸款的90% 以上,但截至2024 年9 月30 日,Sunnova 的靜態貸款組合超過40 億美元,其中包括超過10 億美元的金額,主要與原始發行折扣相關。
Catalysts like home sales, debt consolidation using home equity or simple refinancing as interest rates fall collectively unlock meaningful cash flow that reduces our debt.
房屋銷售、使用房屋淨值進行債務整合或利率下降時的簡單再融資等催化劑共同釋放了有意義的現金流,從而減少了我們的債務。
On this slide, we've included an illustrated prepayment to demonstrate how they enhance our cash flows.
在這張投影片上,我們提供了一份插圖的預付款,以展示它們如何增強我們的現金流。
And the line graph highlights that in just the last two months, the recent 50 basis point interest rate cut acts as an inflection point where we now see a 20% increase in prepayments versus our forecast.
折線圖強調,在過去兩個月中,最近 50 個基點的降息充當了一個拐點,我們現在看到預付款項比我們的預測增加了 20%。
We believe this trend could continue in a positive direction as we close out 2024 and look ahead to 2025.
我們相信,隨著 2024 年的結束和 2025 年的展望,這一趨勢可能會繼續朝著正面的方向發展。
On slide 15, I'd like to provide a quick update on our fully burdened unlevered return and implied spread.
在幻燈片 15 上,我想提供有關我們完全負擔的無槓桿回報和隱含利差的快速更新。
You can see our spread dipped a bit in the third quarter as some of the tax equity we originated in the quarter priced lower than the last couple -- and our last couple of securitizations priced higher than those prior.
您可以看到我們的利差在第三季度略有下降,因為我們在本季度發起的一些稅收權益的定價低於前幾個,而我們最後幾個證券化的定價高於之前的價格。
However, you see a sharp improvement as we enter the fourth quarter, thanks to several factors, including closing a private securitization that priced nicely inside of our last public deal, higher contributions from tax capital as we increase average utilization and our work to accelerate in-service, as John mentioned earlier.
然而,隨著我們進入第四季度,由於多種因素,您會發現情況出現了急劇改善,包括完成了一項私募證券化,該證券化在我們上次公開交易中的定價很好,隨著我們提高平均利用率,稅收資本的貢獻增加,以及我們加速發展的工作。
Before I turn to guidance and having discussed the three legs of Sunnova's value story underpinned by our heightened emphasis on serving our dealers, customers and cash generation, I'd like to link back to John's comments as they relate to how we're thinking about our 2026 corporate debt maturities.
在我轉向指導並討論 Sunnova 價值故事的三個支柱之前,我想先連結回 John 的評論,因為它們與我們如何思考有關我們的 2026 年公司債務到期日。
With confidence in our ability to grow our unrestricted cash balance through the drivers we've discussed, enhanced by the significant prepayment opportunity, in the coming quarters, we expect to use a combination of opportunistic debt repurchases and a regular way refinancing of any remaining amount to address our upcoming maturities.
我們對透過我們討論的驅動因素增加不受限制的現金餘額的能力充滿信心,並透過重要的提前還款機會增強,在未來幾個季度,我們預計將結合使用機會性債務回購和任何剩餘金額的常規方式再融資解決我們即將到期的問題。
To this end, having added new senior leaders to my capital markets team and being new to the company myself, we headed to New York last month where we met with our banking partners and began conversations aligned with this strategy.
為此,在我的資本市場團隊中增加了新的高級領導者,我自己也是公司的新人,我們上個月前往紐約,在那裡我們與我們的銀行合作夥伴會面,並開始了與這一戰略相一致的對話。
We are in the process of refreshing our corporate model with our 2025 budget and long-range plans, and we look forward to working with them to achieve a great outcome.
我們正在透過 2025 年預算和長期計畫來刷新我們的企業模式,我們期待與他們合作取得偉大成果。
As I round out my prepared remarks, I'll turn to slide 17, which we added in response to the request that many of you made of us, which we believe provides insight into and sensitivities to the assumptions that underpin our cash generation target.
當我完成準備好的發言時,我將轉向幻燈片17,這是我們根據你們許多人向我們提出的要求而添加的,我們相信它提供了對支撐我們現金生成目標的假設的洞察力和敏感性。
So I hope you find this useful.
所以我希望你覺得這很有用。
Ultimately, our progress driving ITC adders higher and doing so more quickly than expected, coupled with our high-margin core customer focus, price increases and more efficient cost structure position us to reiterate the cash guidance we shared last quarter, specifically, unrestricted cash generation of $100 million in 2024, $350 million in 2025, and $400 million in 2026.
最終,我們推動ITC 增值的進展比預期更快,加上我們對高利潤核心客戶的關注、價格上漲和更高效的成本結構,使我們能夠重申我們上季度分享的現金指導,特別是不受限制的現金產生2024 年為 1 億美元,2025 年為 3.5 億美元,2026 年為 4 億美元。
On that positive note, I'll turn the call back to John for closing remarks.
出於這一積極的考慮,我將把電話轉回給約翰,讓他作結束語。
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Eric.
謝謝,埃里克。
In addition to everything we discussed today, it is important to remind everyone the current macro environment is prime for Sunnova to take market share and expand its footprint in a very underpenetrated industry.
除了我們今天討論的所有內容之外,重要的是要提醒大家,當前的宏觀環境對於 Sunnova 來說是搶佔市場份額並擴大其在滲透率非常低的行業的足蹟的最佳條件。
Power demand and utility costs are increasing.
電力需求和公用事業成本正在增加。
Equipment costs are declining and catastrophic weather events, which expose the vulnerabilities of the centralized grid, are driving demand for our energy service solutions.
設備成本不斷下降,而災難性天氣事件暴露了集中式電網的脆弱性,正在推動對我們能源服務解決方案的需求。
Our team continues to deliver outstanding service to our customer base while remaining focused on our key priorities, and proving to our investors, our ability to increase our cash generation.
我們的團隊繼續為我們的客戶群提供卓越的服務,同時繼續專注於我們的關鍵優先事項,並向我們的投資者證明我們增加現金產生的能力。
I am confident in our ability to continue to execute on these priorities.
我對我們繼續執行這些優先事項的能力充滿信心。
We have made significant progress in our business, which has only been strengthened by the macroeconomic tailwinds that will bolster Sunnova's industry-leading adaptive energy services.
我們的業務取得了重大進展,而宏觀經濟的順風推動了 Sunnova 行業領先的自適應能源服務,這一進展得到了加強。
With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
那麼,接線員,請開通提問線路。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Philip Shen, ROTH Capital Partners.
(操作員指令)Philip Shen,羅仕資本合夥人。
Philip Shen - Analyst
Philip Shen - Analyst
First one is on domestic content.
第一個是國內內容。
When you started to mandate domestic content originations, you also decided to keep all the value.
當您開始強制要求國內內容原創時,您也決定保留所有價值。
When do you start to pass that domestic content on to -- or some of it on to some of your dealers and perhaps your homeowner customers as well?
你什麼時候開始將國內內容傳遞給——或者其中一些傳遞給你的一些經銷商,也許還有你的房主客戶?
Some of the dealers that we've been in touch with have shared with us that they expect this could happen by year-end, especially as competitors start to ramp up their domestic content offerings, and they're sharing some of that benefit.
我們接觸過的一些經銷商告訴我們,他們預計這可能會在年底前實現,特別是當競爭對手開始增加其國內內容產品時,他們正在分享其中的一些好處。
What's your view of this overall?
您對此有何總體看法?
And if you do plan to pass along some of this domestic content value, how much could it be?
如果您確實計劃傳遞一些國內內容的價值,那麼可以傳遞多少?
And is the adder sharing fully factored into your cash generation projections for '25 and '26?
加法器共享是否已充分考慮到您對 25 和 26 年現金產生的預測?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Phil, it's John.
菲爾,是約翰。
Thanks for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
I think first and foremost, the OEMs, the manufacturer, our partners there, they have the [45x], and that was part of the IRA that was going directly to set up and compensate for the higher cost of manufacturing in the United States.
我認為首先也是最重要的是,原始設備製造商、製造商、我們在那裡的合作夥伴,他們擁有[45x],這是 IRA 的一部分,將直接建立並補償美國較高的製造成本。
And to my knowledge, they have not shared that with any other part of the value chain.
據我所知,他們沒有與價值鏈的任何其他部分分享這一點。
So I want to point that, that's what the purpose of that was and the equipment itself should not be of higher cost.
所以我想指出的是,這就是目的,設備本身的成本不應該更高。
And indeed, what we've seen across the board is increasingly equipment, whether it's domestically manufactured or not, is coming into roughly the same cost.
事實上,我們全面看到越來越多的設備,無論是否國產,其成本都大致相同。
And we expect that trend to continue and to be a quite accelerated trend.
我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去,並且是一個相當加速的趨勢。
The direct answer to your question is we focus on pricing to drive a balance between our growth and our cash generation.
您問題的直接答案是我們專注於定價,以實現成長和現金產生之間的平衡。
We like where that balance is right now.
我們喜歡現在的平衡狀態。
That pricing is dependent on a multitude of variables, the quality of the customers that each dealer provides us.
此定價取決於多種變數以及每個經銷商為我們提供的客戶的品質。
The local utility rates, as you know, have a big part in this.
如您所知,當地的公用事業費率在其中起著很大的作用。
So some areas, we may have to lower pricing to essentially gather market share there.
因此,在某些地區,我們可能必須降低定價才能從根本上聚集那裡的市場份額。
I want to point out, I'm not aware that we're in the process of doing any lowering of price at this point in time, however.
我想指出的是,我不知道我們目前正在降低價格。
And so there's a multitude of reasons that we may engage in so-called price cuts.
因此,我們可能會出於多種原因進行所謂的降價。
And we do those quite often as we negotiate on those variables.
當我們就這些變數進行談判時,我們經常這樣做。
We are not going to focus on whether part of pricing comes out of one adder or another or the overall economics or the pricing that we set or anything else.
我們不會關注定價的一部分是否來自一個或另一個加法器,或整體經濟或我們設定的定價或其他任何東西。
It's all price.
都是價格啊
And so we're quite focused on that.
所以我們非常關注這一點。
Then the other part or I think your last part of your question is do we have that conservatism baked in.
那麼另一部分,或者我認為你問題的最後一部分是,我們是否有這種保守主義。
We've been very clear, very, very clear that we've had conservatism baked into 2025 and 2026.
我們非常非常非常明確地表示,我們已經將保守主義融入 2025 年和 2026 年。
And indeed, you can look at the cash flows, levered cash flows, for instance, in '24.
事實上,你可以看看 24 年的現金流、槓桿現金流。
And then we did not have much baked in, in terms of flipping the WIP or prior to 9 to 1.
然後我們並沒有太多的準備,無論是翻轉 WIP 還是在 9 比 1 之前。
And we've had a great deal of success, as we pointed out, both in achieving the domestic content.
正如我們所指出的,我們在實現國內內容方面都取得了巨大成功。
Our sales have been good and the best in the company's history over the last few months.
在過去的幾個月裡,我們的銷售情況一直很好,是公司歷史上最好的。
And so we feel very comfortable with where we sit right now versus the expectations that we put in or the guidance we put in on our cash generation.
因此,與我們對現金生成的期望或指導相比,我們對現在的處境感到非常滿意。
And in fact, you'll notice the CapEx, we dropped it down pretty meaningfully.
事實上,您會注意到資本支出,我們非常有意義地降低了它。
The associated levered cash flows did not drop accordingly or anywhere close to it, and we still maintained our cash guidance.
相關的槓桿現金流並未相應下降或接近下降,我們仍維持現金指引。
So that told you that we had a lot of conservatism built in.
所以這告訴你我們有很多內在的保守主義。
We still do.
我們仍然這樣做。
And so it gives us the flexibility, should we need it, to be able to modify pricing where that makes sense.
因此,如果我們需要的話,它為我們提供了靈活性,能夠在有意義的情況下修改定價。
Philip Shen - Analyst
Philip Shen - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Appreciate that.
很欣賞這一點。
Shifting to the next question on market share.
轉向下一個關於市場佔有率的問題。
At the end of your prepared remarks, you talked about being primed to take share.
在準備好的演講結束時,您談到準備分享。
That said, we've learned a fair amount about how some of your dealers, mostly small, but not all small dealers, may be moving away.
也就是說,我們已經了解到很多關於您的一些經銷商(大多數是小型經銷商,但並非所有小型經銷商)可能會離開的情況。
So some might be moving away from the platform for a variety of reasons, including the mandate to domestic content, meaning it's been tough for some of these guys and also the elongated payment terms.
因此,有些人可能會出於各種原因離開該平台,包括對國內內容的授權,這意味著對其中一些人來說這很困難,而且付款條件也很長。
What's your latest view on this dynamic?
您對此動態有何最新看法?
I know we've talked about this in the past, but do you think you've adequately and fully accounted for this in your cash outlook?
我知道我們過去曾討論過這一點,但您認為您在現金前景中充分且充分地考慮了這一點嗎?
And what is the plan -- or sorry, what is the risk you could lose more volume than you had planned?
計劃是什麼? 或抱歉,您損失的交易量可能比計劃的多的風險是什麼?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
是的。
That's always a risk that we have a balance.
我們保持平衡始終存在風險。
That doesn't balance out the way we want to.
這並沒有達到我們想要的平衡。
That's -- it's the business itself.
這就是業務本身。
And it's something that I'm very used to dealing with, as my management team is as well, over the last -- over a decade.
這是我和我的管理團隊在過去十多年裡非常習慣處理的事情。
And so that's really nothing new.
所以這確實不是什麼新鮮事。
Again, focusing just on one adder and one piece of the investment tax credit, I think, is a huge mistake.
我認為,再次強調,只關註一個加法器和一項投資稅收抵免是一個巨大的錯誤。
One, regardless of any party or whatever happens on Tuesday, both parties, the only thing they can agree on is domestic manufacturing, right?
一,無論任何一方或週二發生什麼,雙方唯一能達成一致的就是國內製造,對嗎?
And so that's going to take place no matter what.
所以無論如何這都會發生。
And we've seen where the IRA has actually had very good success with bringing domestic manufacturing into our industry, and we're very pleased about that.
我們已經看到愛爾蘭共和軍在將國內製造業引入我們的行業方面實際上取得了非常好的成功,我們對此感到非常高興。
The fact that we were a little bit ahead of folks and led the industry is nothing new.
事實上,我們領先於其他人並引領了行業,這並不是什麼新鮮事。
We lead the industry quite frequently, as you know, Phil.
正如你所知,菲爾,我們經常引領業界。
And so we see a lot of folks getting on board with domestic content.
因此,我們看到很多人開始關注國內內容。
In fact, over the next two weeks, two weeks, we see a lot of manufacturing equipment that's going to be available to us, and we've already had a lot already available to us and our dealers.
事實上,在接下來的兩週、兩週內,我們將看到大量的製造設備可供我們使用,而且我們和我們的經銷商已經有許多可用的設備。
So we see quite a bit of progress on all this front.
所以我們在這方面看到了相當多的進展。
So I think that sort of pain point of finding domestic content equipment and so forth that people report is going to fade very, very quickly here in a matter of days and weeks.
因此,我認為人們報告的尋找國產設備等的痛點將在幾天或幾週內非常非常快地消失。
We're confident in that.
我們對此充滿信心。
And we're not really seeing that a lot of problem with getting domestic content equipment.
我們並沒有真正看到購買國產設備有許多問題。
When you look at the overall dealer onboarding, we're very comfortable with where we sit right now.
當你看看經銷商的整體入職情況時,我們對目前的處境感到非常滿意。
We're always looking for better folks to join us.
我們一直在尋找更好的人加入我們。
The best in the industry is a better way of putting it.
業界最好的就是更好的表達方式。
But we haven't really added any dealers, as you know.
但如您所知,我們還沒有真正添加任何經銷商。
We're pretty comfortable.
我們很舒服。
Quite candidly, I was very open about a risk of moving here over the last few months on the Q2 call.
坦白說,在過去幾個月的第二季電話會議上,我對搬到這裡的風險非常開放。
And we didn't see a lot of the risk come forth in terms of the negative fallout.
我們並沒有看到太多負面影響所帶來的風險。
So we like where we are.
所以我們喜歡我們現在的處境。
If things change, then we'll make changes based on that.
如果情況發生變化,我們將據此進行更改。
But again, we've been very conservative in our forecast.
但同樣,我們的預測非常保守。
So we're comfortable with where we sit.
所以我們對坐的地方很舒服。
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Phil, this is Eric.
菲爾,這是艾瑞克。
And I'd just add, one of the reasons that we added that slide about winning together is that if you step back and you look at this more holistically, it really is about the overall value proposition that Sunnova provides its dealers.
我想補充一點,我們添加有關共同獲勝的幻燈片的原因之一是,如果您退一步並更全面地看待這一點,那麼這實際上是關於 Sunnova 為其經銷商提供的整體價值主張。
And I had a chance to meet many of those key dealers at the [RE+] and understand the nature of the relationship and the positive way that Michael's team manages that.
我有機會在 [RE+] 會見了許多關鍵經銷商,了解了這種關係的本質以及邁克爾團隊管理這種關係的積極方式。
But we do have a unique platform and offer them a tremendous set of tools and technologies to win in their business.
但我們確實擁有一個獨特的平台,並為他們提供了大量的工具和技術,以幫助他們贏得業務。
And so it isn't just about price.
所以這不僅僅是價格的問題。
It really is about the big picture.
這確實涉及大局。
So hopefully, we've eliminated that.
希望我們已經消除了這一點。
And I think John hit the nail on the head.
我認為約翰說中了要害。
This is dynamic.
這是動態的。
We're watching closely by market, and we'll respond as we need to.
我們正在密切關注市場,並將根據需要做出反應。
Operator
Operator
Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.
朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯,杰弗里斯。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst
Just starting on the cash balance.
剛開始現金餘額。
Obviously, you guys spent a bunch of time on this, but let's just talk about the progress year-to-date here, inclusive in 4Q, towards that $100 million bogey here for full year.
顯然,你們在這方面花了很多時間,但我們只談談今年迄今為止的進展,包括第四季度,全年實現 1 億美元柏忌。
Where do you stand even quarter-to-date against that, given the private placement you guys announced here, A?
考慮到你們在這裡宣布的私募,A,即使是本季至今,你們對此有何看法?
And then B, what kind of sizing do you expect for the future private placement, just to try to set some bogeys around what we should expect as we see these things in the future?
然後B,您對未來私募的規模有什麼樣的預期,只是為了嘗試圍繞我們在未來看到這些事情時應該預期的事情設定一些忌諱?
And then ultimately, can you talk about the advantages or merits of pursuing these private deals versus the traditional structures you've been pursuing in terms of coupon, terms?
最後,您能否談談追求這些私人交易與您一直在優惠券、條款方面追求的傳統結構相比的優勢或優點?
What kind of flexibility does it afford you, et cetera?
它為您提供了什麼樣的靈活性等等?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Before you answer that, Eric, I just want to -- Julien, this is John, just say, look, we are doing private and public.
在你回答這個問題之前,艾瑞克,我只想——朱利安,這是約翰,只是說,看,我們正在做私人和公共的事情。
We didn't make it clear either way which type of transactions we would do for the balance of the quarter.
無論哪種方式,我們都沒有明確說明我們將在本季度剩餘時間內進行哪種類型的交易。
But, Eric.
但是,埃里克.
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
No, we've obviously -- we're off to a really good start in the fourth quarter.
不,我們顯然——我們在第四季度有了一個非常好的開局。
You saw that we talked about closing a tax equity fund just after the end.
你看到我們在結束後討論了關閉稅務股權基金。
Obviously, I'd love to have had that $35 million sitting on top of the $45 million cash and net cash used for the quarter because we would have basically been at parity.
顯然,我希望在本季使用的 4500 萬美元現金和淨現金基礎上再增加 3500 萬美元,因為我們基本上是持平的。
And I think that uptick would have been ideal.
我認為這種上升是理想的。
But I'll tell you that the party that we closed out with is a party that is very interested in building a long-term relationship and will provide tremendous capacity.
但我要告訴你的是,我們結束時的一方對建立長期關係非常感興趣,並將提供巨大的能力。
We're already at work on a 2025 fund with that party, which gives us real momentum going into the fourth quarter since we had that first draw closing out the year.
我們已經在與該方合作設立 2025 年基金,這為我們進入第四季度提供了真正的動力,因為我們在今年結束了第一次抽籤。
And we have another fund behind that.
我們背後還有另一個基金。
But we're not just focused on the tax equity side of the equation.
但我們不僅僅關注等式的稅收公平方面。
The team, as we mentioned, is working on the next securitization that will be a Puerto Rican-only securitization as we close out the facility.
正如我們所提到的,該團隊正在研究下一個證券化,這將是波多黎各獨有的證券化,因為我們關閉了該設施。
That -- I think you may have seen the 15G go out, and we're still evaluating whether we'll make that private or public just based on getting optimal terms.
我認為您可能已經看到 15G 已經退出市場,我們仍在評估是否將其私有化或公開,僅基於獲得最佳條款。
And we're being extremely nimble.
我們非常靈活。
And part of that, executing on multiple fronts.
其中一部分是在多個方面執行。
I mentioned building out the capital markets team, bringing new talent in.
我提到了建立資本市場團隊,引進新人才。
They're quickly coming up to speed and, not surprisingly, hitting on a lot of cylinders on a lot of fronts, whether it be tax equity, the securitizations or looking at the corporate refinance that we talked about.
他們很快就跟上了節奏,毫不奇怪,他們在許多方面都取得了進展,無論是稅收公平、證券化還是我們談到的企業再融資。
With respect to public or private, one of the reasons that we did the last one private, and it was $310 million essentially of value, was that we had put over $1 billion away in the first half of the year into the public space.
就公共或私人而言,我們最後一次私人舉辦的原因之一是我們在今年上半年向公共領域投入了超過 10 億美元,價值高達 3.1 億美元。
We're working to expand our distribution so that we don't tend to fill up the pockets of those that have traditionally looked at our deals.
我們正在努力擴大我們的分銷範圍,這樣我們就不會中飽那些傳統上關注我們交易的人的腰包。
But candidly, we got better pricing, which is a little counterintuitive to go private.
但坦白說,我們得到了更好的定價,這對私有化來說有點違反直覺。
That was a reverse inquiry from parties that have looked at our public deals and candidly wanted larger pieces to justify allocating the internal resources.
這是來自各方的反向詢問,這些各方查看了我們的公共交易,並坦率地希望獲得更大的份額來證明內部資源分配的合理性。
It was -- we were looking at doing that with a single party and split it and did it with two parties.
我們正在考慮與一個團體一起做這件事,然後將其拆分並與兩個團體一起做。
The nice thing there is that both parties have the opportunity to upsize in a meaningful way as we look at the next deal.
令人高興的是,當我們考慮下一筆交易時,雙方都有機會以有意義的方式擴大規模。
So we'll have the optionality to go back out public or we could pivot back to the private and just make sure that we're maximizing the value to us and reducing our cost of capital.
因此,我們可以選擇退出公開市場,也可以轉向私人市場,並確保我們能夠最大化我們的價值並降低我們的資本成本。
So it was great to see that the directionality of the spread tighten as we closed out the last securitization.
因此,當我們結束最後一次證券化時,很高興看到利差的方向性收緊。
So that hopefully gives you a little bit of color as to how we're positioned heading into the -- to round out the year.
因此,希望這能讓您了解我們在今年即將結束時的定位。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Okay.
好的。
All right.
好的。
Fair enough.
很公平。
And then just regular way refinancing, just to come back to the capital allocation question here.
然後只是常規的再融資方式,回到這裡的資本配置問題。
I mean just -- what did you intend by that comment, just super quick as a follow-up here, if you don't mind?
我的意思是——如果你不介意的話,你發表這個評論的目的是什麼,作為後續行動的超級快?
And what do you want to do about the -- are you actively
你想做什麼——你是否積極地
[paying down]?
[還錢]?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
Well, obviously, we are absolutely looking hard at the best options for 2026.
顯然,我們絕對在努力尋找 2026 年的最佳選擇。
Yes, I still -- I recognize that many feel there's a greater sense of urgency on this.
是的,我仍然——我認識到許多人認為這方面有更大的緊迫感。
I joined the company four months ago, building out a team in the midst of a really interesting time for the industry with the adders coming online.
我四個月前加入了這家公司,當時正是加法器上線的行業非常有趣的時期,我組建了一個團隊。
The best hand you can play with respect to navigating a paydown or refinance or a combination of the two is to demonstrate that you can execute on the plan that you put forward.
在處理還款或再融資或兩者的組合方面,您可以發揮的最佳作用是證明您可以執行您提出的計劃。
And so we're in the process -- we have been in the process of refining that, that you've seen in the last two quarters' worth of slides and, in parallel, ramping up conversations with our ordinary course banks.
因此,我們正在這個過程中 - 我們一直在完善這一點,您在過去兩個季度的幻燈片中看到了這一點,同時加強了與我們普通課程銀行的對話。
So that was part of the purpose going to New York.
這就是去紐約的目的的一部分。
We've had that conversation or that dialogue open.
我們已經進行了這樣的對話或對話。
We're expanding that to include the banks that know us well and banks you've seen transact in our corporate debt before to make sure that we're thoughtful in the way that we approach it.
我們正在擴大這一範圍,以包括熟悉我們的銀行以及您之前見過我們進行公司債務交易的銀行,以確保我們處理問題的方式是深思熟慮的。
So stepping back, obviously, the best way to begin those conversations is making sure that you have really tight models and tight numbers to demonstrate where we're going.
因此,退後一步,顯然,開始這些對話的最佳方法是確保您擁有非常嚴格的模型和嚴格的數字來展示我們的發展方向。
So it may feel like early innings, but in my view, having a year before we're even talking about current and having now two quarters of demonstrated ability to tap into these -- the adders, the optimized cost structure, the resiliency in our price and maintaining margins, all gives us the backdrop that we need to do this in just ordinary course and not need to get creative or punitive to any of our existing holders.
因此,這可能感覺像是早期的幾局,但在我看來,我們甚至在談論當前的情況之前還有一年的時間,現在已經有兩個季度展示了利用這些能力的能力——加法器、優化的成本結構、我們的彈性。 。
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
And Eric, I would add to that, you made mention about the book value of the equity is looking a metric.
艾瑞克,我想補充一點,你提到股權的帳面價值正在尋找一個指標。
And Julien, keep in mind, we have this corporate debt for a reason, and that is $18.8 billion of nominal contracted cash flow.
Julien,請記住,我們持有這些公司債務是有原因的,那就是 188 億美元的名義合約現金流。
So that's no extension value or anything else.
所以這沒有擴展價值或其他任何東西。
That's why we are allowed to issue the bonds.
這就是我們被允許發行債券的原因。
And as that continues to increase, I think it's over $1 billion increase from the Q2 call, that gives us more and more and a capability of going back in and having a much easier conversation with the issuances of new bonds to refinance both the
隨著這一數字的不斷增加,我認為第二季度的資金增加了超過 10 億美元,這使我們有越來越多的能力回去並更容易地與新債券的發行進行對話,以便為
[26 and 28].
[26和28]。
So time is on our side with regards to building up that base of cash flow, which quite candidly, a lot of folks tend to forget that, that was the reason why we were able to issue in the first place.
因此,在建立現金流基礎方面,時間對我們有利,坦白說,很多人往往會忘記這一點,這就是我們能夠首先發行的原因。
It was not necessarily the cash generation that we talk about, the $850 million on the use of adders and cost savings and such.
我們談論的不一定是現金生成,而是使用加法器和節省成本等產生的 8.5 億美元。
Operator
Operator
Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.
布萊恩李,高盛。
Brian Lee - Analyst
Brian Lee - Analyst
I actually wanted to focus a little bit on this key slide you guys provide every quarter, which is great, slide 17, some of the assumptions here.
實際上,我想稍微關註一下你們每季提供的這張關鍵投影片,這很棒,投影片 17,這裡有一些假設。
So I guess, first off, the advance rate here, you're talking about an assumption of 75% in '25 and '26, which that seems reasonable.
所以我想,首先,這裡的提前率,你談論的是 25 年和 26 年 75% 的假設,這似乎是合理的。
But if we look at recent precedent, I think it's been trending more like 70%.
但如果我們看看最近的先例,我認為它的趨勢更像是 70%。
And I think on an earlier slide where you -- Eric showed off the -- some of the OID math and prepayment math, you're also using a 70% baseline.
我認為在之前的一張投影片中,Eric 展示了一些 OID 數學和預付款數學,您也使用了 70% 的基準。
So question would be, how comfortable are you with the 75%?
那麼問題來了,你對 75% 的人感到滿意嗎?
Like, what are you seeing in the marketplace?
例如,您在市場上看到了什麼?
And then also, what would be kind of the delta in terms of cash if it was 70% versus 75%?
另外,如果現金比例是 70% 和 75%,那麼 Delta 會是多少?
Just trying to kind of stress test how this (technical difficulty) plays into the cash fees here.
只是想對這種(技術難度)如何影響現金費用進行壓力測試。
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
The -- it's a good question.
這是一個好問題。
And you're right.
你是對的。
If you look back at '24 too, that one, the advance rate was just south of 75%, but that was an unusual transaction for us and whereas our traditional had been 75% or better.
如果你也回顧一下 24 年,那一次,預付款率略高於 75%,但這對我們來說是一筆不尋常的交易,而我們的傳統交易是 75% 或更好。
And that was because it had some unique collaterals.
那是因為它有一些獨特的抵押品。
We closed out some assets that were part of the Helios program that we -- that didn't fit into that securitization so that we included those.
我們關閉了一些屬於 Helios 計畫一部分的資產,這些資產不適合證券化,因此我們將這些資產納入其中。
But that was I would not consider typical of our deal.
但我不認為這是我們交易的典型。
If you look at the deal that we just closed privately, that was a 76% advance rate, and we actually went -- got that done on an A and [A BBB] minus as opposed to an A, BBB flat.
如果你看一下我們剛剛私下完成的交易,那是 76% 的預付款率,我們實際上是在 A 和 [A BBB] 減去而不是 A、BBB 平坦的情況下完成的。
So we certainly see this as very achievable as we continue to move forward and think that -- I have to go back and look at the sensitivities, but that's not one that I'm worried about.
因此,隨著我們繼續前進,我們當然認為這是可以實現的,並且認為——我必須回去考慮敏感性,但這不是我擔心的問題。
The sensitivity is on the slide.
靈敏度在幻燈片上。
You can actually see the advanced rate sensitivity on the margin of the slide.
您實際上可以在幻燈片的邊緣看到高級速率靈敏度。
That was $35 million for each 1%.
每 1% 就是 3500 萬美元。
Brian Lee - Analyst
Brian Lee - Analyst
Awesome.
驚人的。
And then I guess on this -- the gross customer additions, I mean, I suppose you maybe provide a range.
然後我猜想——我的意思是,我想你可能會提供一個範圍。
Historically, you always provided a range, but you have the spot 127,000 view here initially.
從歷史上看,您總是提供一個範圍,但您最初在這裡有 127,000 個現貨視圖。
I guess, can you give us a sense of mix that you're assuming on the 127,000 new additions for '25 and how that compares to the 110,000 to 120,000 you have for current guidance on
我想,您能否為我們介紹一下您對 25 年新增 127,000 個項目的假設,以及與您目前指導的 110,000 到 120,000 個項目相比如何?
(technical difficulty).
(技術難度)。
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
是的。
This is John, Brian.
這是約翰,布萊恩。
Roughly, it's about a 15% increase, if my math is correct, on the year-over-year of what we expect to do this year and what we expect on the 127,000 next year.
粗略地說,如果我的計算正確的話,我們今年的預期和明年的 127,000 人的預期同比增幅約為 15%。
I want to say roughly about 10%, maybe somewhere -- maybe a little bit north of that is service-only customers and then the rest would be some form of solar and such.
我想說大約 10%,也許在某個地方——也許再往北一點是只提供服務的客戶,然後剩下的就是某種形式的太陽能等。
Please keep in mind that we don't count as we do upsells of batteries and increasingly other equipment to enhance our service offerings or even additional systems, which is something we do now quite frequently.
請記住,我們不算在內,因為我們增加銷售電池和越來越多的其他設備,以增強我們的服務產品甚至附加系統,這是我們現在經常做的事情。
So a single customer would have two contracts.
因此,一個客戶將擁有兩份合約。
That still counts as one customer for us.
對我們來說,這仍然算是一位客戶。
I know that's different for others.
我知道這對其他人來說是不同的。
And so this is one of the reasons you're seeing the capacity measured in kilowatts per customer and the battery amount, the kilowatt hours, move up on a per customer basis quite meaningfully.
因此,這就是您看到每個客戶的容量(以千瓦為單位)以及電池容量(千瓦時)在每個客戶的基礎上顯著上升的原因之一。
And therefore, the CapEx per customer is moving up quite meaningfully.
因此,每個客戶的資本支出正在顯著增加。
There are markets, in fact, like such as Florida that we're regularly seeing $60,000 to $70,000 EPC per customer at this point with just a single contract, let alone additional upsells.
事實上,在某些市場(例如佛羅裡達州),我們經常看到此時每位客戶只需簽訂一份合約即可獲得 60,000 至 70,000 美元的 EPC,更不用說額外的追加銷售了。
So we see quite more of a focus, and I think the street has looked at more of a focus on cash generation and overall CapEx and that trend rather than on account basis.
因此,我們看到了更多的關注點,我認為華爾街更關注現金產生和整體資本支出以及這一趨勢,而不是帳戶基礎。
And so we just felt like we would just put a single number, we'll refine it.
所以我們只是覺得我們只需輸入一個數字,我們就會對其進行改進。
But more importantly, we still see growth ahead of us.
但更重要的是,我們仍然看到成長的前景。
And again, the last few months have been record origination months in the company's history.
過去幾個月再次創下了公司歷史上創紀錄的創紀錄月份。
Brian Lee - Analyst
Brian Lee - Analyst
Awesome.
驚人的。
I appreciate that color.
我很欣賞那種顏色。
Last one for me again, just on this slide.
又是我的最後一張投影片,就在這張投影片上。
Pretty -- you alluded to this, John, in your remarks, but I might have missed the explanation.
漂亮——約翰,你在演講中提到了這一點,但我可能錯過了解釋。
There's a pretty meaningful step-down in the EPC cost, almost like $1 billion a year versus the assumptions you laid out last quarter for '25 and '26.
EPC 成本大幅下降,與您上個季度針對 25 年和 26 年所做的假設相比,幾乎每年下降 10 億美元。
Is that just a reflection of a more moderate growth scenario than you were thinking three months ago?
這是否只是反映了比您三個月前想像的更溫和的成長情景?
Is that cost optimization?
這是成本優化嗎?
I mean it looks like the proceeds from tax equity and recourse debt are also down correspondingly.
我的意思是,看起來稅務權益和追索債務的收益也隨之下降。
So it seems like it's more of a growth thing, but could you kind of walk us through the drivers behind the significant reduction there?
所以看起來這更像是一個成長的事情,但您能否向我們介紹大幅減少背後的驅動因素?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
是的。
Again, we're optimizing for cash generation.
同樣,我們正在優化現金生成。
So when we look at where do we -- all things being equal, we'd love to expend less on CapEx even with the corresponding sources of that CapEx and coming in the door.
因此,當我們考慮在哪裡時——在所有條件相同的情況下,我們希望減少在資本支出上的支出,即使有相應的資本支出來源並且正在進入。
And so we've been working to optimize the cash generation forecast that we laid out.
因此,我們一直在努力優化我們所製定的現金產生預測。
So next year, $350 million, for instance, and this is where we -- again, I made mention earlier in answering Phil's question, we've been very conservative, and we still are conservative, but we were able to dial that in a little better and see a better balance.
所以明年,例如 3.5 億美元,這就是我們——再次,我之前在回答菲爾的問題時提到過,我們一直非常保守,而且我們仍然很保守,但我們能夠在一個好一點,看到更好的平衡。
I will also add that less CapEx is less consumption of working capital, and that's pretty dear in the marketplace and has been for a while, as you know.
我還要補充一點,較少的資本支出意味著較少的營運資金消耗,正如您所知,這在市場上相當昂貴,並且已經存在了一段時間。
So this is all-in is a good news story.
所以這是一個好消息。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Percoco, Morgan Stanley.
安德魯佩爾科科,摩根士丹利。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
I wanted to start out with just the cadence of cash flow.
我想從現金流的節奏開始。
Obviously, to get to your full year number for 2024, pretty weighted towards sort of the fourth quarter.
顯然,要獲得 2024 年全年數據,第四季相當重要。
I know there's typically seasonality in working capital.
我知道營運資金通常具有季節性。
There's been some seasonality and timing-related issues around some of the tax transfer closings.
一些稅務轉移關閉存在一些季節性和時間相關的問題。
I guess as we look out to 2025, should we be expecting a similar cadence in terms of seasonality to get to the $350 million of cash generation?
我想,當我們展望 2025 年時,我們是否應該期待類似的季節性節奏才能實現 3.5 億美元的現金產生?
Or are there things that you're doing internally, either working with dealers or maybe being more consistent with some of your tax partners to smooth out the seasonality and the cadence of cash generation?
或者您正在內部做一些事情,或者與經銷商合作,或者與您的一些稅務合作夥伴保持更加一致,以消除季節性和現金生成的節奏?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I'll try to answer it and then Eric can correct me.
我會嘗試回答,然後艾瑞克可以糾正我。
Yes, is the answer.
是的,就是答案。
You should expect that the same seasonality occurs every year as for 12 years.
您應該預料到每年都會出現與 12 年相同的季節性。
And then -- and secondly, though, this has been -- the seasonality has been accentuated by the adders.
然後——不過,第二點是——蝰蛇加劇了季節性。
So that would level things out a bit for next year.
這樣明年的情況就會趨於平衡。
But, Eric?
但是,艾瑞克?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
I think it's right.
我認為這是對的。
The only other thing I'd say is if you look at the theme this year, it's been a reacceleration of our capital markets team and the work we're doing.
我唯一想說的是,如果你看看今年的主題,你會發現這是我們資本市場團隊和我們正在做的工作的重新加速。
We're going to carry that momentum into next year, and we're going to stay not only on time, but we're going to get ahead of ourselves with respect to standing up tax equity funds so that rather than waiting on the fund to open to grab that first tranche that can be significant working capital, we're going to have funds waiting for those systems to go in at first tranche.
我們將把這種勢頭延續到明年,我們不僅會準時,而且會在建立稅收股權基金方面超越自己,這樣就不用等待基金了為了獲得第一批可能是重要營運資金的資金,我們將有資金等待這些系統在第一批中投入使用。
That will help to mitigate any of the seasonality noise.
這將有助於減輕任何季節性噪音。
So it will always be there.
所以它會永遠存在。
We want to see strong growth in the third quarter, but I think we can do better in responding to that.
我們希望看到第三季的強勁成長,但我認為我們可以做得更好,以應對這一點。
And then just keeping a healthy cadence within our securitizations and so that the market -- that'll -- I think that will improve our pricing if we're thoughtful as to how we're filling the capacity, get good cadence there, broaden the distribution and make sure that we are optimizing the size of each to get best pricing.
然後,只要在我們的證券化過程中保持健康的節奏,那麼市場——這將——我認為,如果我們深思熟慮如何填補產能,在那裡獲得良好的節奏,拓寬市場,這將改善我們的定價。分佈並確保我們優化每個的大小以獲得最佳定價。
So -- but ultimately, if we can keep the rhythm right in capital markets, we should be able to do a lot to mitigate some of the seasonality on cash flow.
所以,但最終,如果我們能夠保持資本市場的正確節奏,我們應該能夠採取許多措施來減輕現金流的季節性。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
That's super helpful.
這非常有幫助。
I appreciate that.
我很欣賞這一點。
And then maybe just to come back to the refinancing point and capital allocation.
然後也許只是回到再融資點和資本配置。
Last quarter, John, it sounded like you were pretty firm on wanting to pay down in cash.
約翰,上個季度,聽起來你非常堅定地想要用現金支付。
This quarter seems like a little bit more open to going with some -- at least a mix of refinancing and paying down in cash.
本季似乎更願意採取一些措施——至少是再融資和現金支付的結合。
Has something changed either in the market or just internally in terms of how you guys are thinking about that capital allocation?
就你們對資本配置的看法而言,市場或內部是否發生了變化?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I'll answer since that was directed at me, and then I'm going to turn it over to the CFO here.
我會回答,因為這是針對我的,然後我會將其移交給這裡的財務長。
The answer is no, nothing's changed, full stop.
答案是否定的,什麼都沒改變,句點。
It's still the same strategy.
仍然是同樣的策略。
Let's get our deals done, let's get the adders in there, let's demonstrate that and then let's go to our banking partners who we've not engaged anybody, be very clear about it, on corporate debt at all.
讓我們完成我們的交易,讓我們把加法器放在那裡,讓我們證明這一點,然後讓我們去找我們的銀行合作夥伴,我們沒有與任何人合作,非常清楚這一點,根本沒有公司債務。
And when you look at what our options are, we're going to tend to go very hard in terms of a trend towards a debt instrument at the corporate level minus whatever we can pay down.
當你看看我們的選擇是什麼時,我們將傾向於在公司層面上的債務工具趨勢上非常努力,減去我們可以支付的任何費用。
So obviously, the equity is extremely undervalued from our perspective, and Eric laid out another compelling GAAP-based metric to show that with book value.
顯然,從我們的角度來看,股票的價值被嚴重低估,埃里克提出了另一個令人信服的基於公認會計準則的指標,以帳面價值來表明這一點。
And so that's something that we're focused on.
這就是我們關注的重點。
But that, again, is not a change.
但這又不是改變。
So I think there's some misperceptions maybe previously about some things from some folks out there.
所以我認為之前有些人對某些事情可能會有一些誤解。
But right -- what we want to do is continue to execute, generate the cash, prove that out, go-to-market, pay down what we can pay down and have it makes sense and do the rest in debt.
但是,我們想要做的是繼續執行,產生現金,證明這一點,進入市場,償還我們可以償還的債務,並使其有意義,然後用債務來完成其餘的事情。
Meanwhile, again, we've been growing this nominal contracted cash base that the debt holders, when they first got in, looked at in the first place, and now it's $18.8 billion, and it keeps climbing roughly $1 billion a quarter.
同時,我們再次增加了名義合約現金基礎,債務持有人在第一次進入時首先考慮的是這一基礎,現在已達到 188 億美元,並且每季度持續攀升約 10 億美元。
So that's my answer on it.
這就是我的回答。
Eric, anything I left out?
艾瑞克,我遺漏了什麼嗎?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
No, it's a great question and one that we should answer a little bit more clearly.
不,這是一個很好的問題,我們應該更清楚地回答這個問題。
If you look at the slide that we've had out there that was a refresh from last quarter, where we showed the three year cash build, $313 million going to nearly $700 million and then topping out at $1.1 billion, that matches our debt stack.
如果你看一下我們發布的幻燈片,它是上個季度的更新,我們展示了三年現金建設,3.13 億美元達到近 7 億美元,然後達到 11 億美元,這與我們的債務堆疊相匹配。
Sure, the idea is to show that if the optimal path forward was a full paydown and we chose to completely remain underlevered in 2026 on that piece of the maturity, we could do that.
當然,這個想法是為了表明,如果最佳的前進道路是全額還款,並且我們選擇在 2026 年對該期限完全保持槓桿不足,那麼我們可以做到這一點。
But that would necessitate the debt going current in a meaningful way, $0.5 billion-ish going current.
但這需要債務以一種有意義的方式流動,即 5 億美元左右的流動。
And I don't think anyone in the market space expects to see that.
我認為市場上沒有人希望看到這一點。
So what we've said as a point of clarification here is that as we build the cash rounding out this year, enter next year with strong momentum and expecting to build another $350 million plus, then we'll be opportunistic.
因此,我們在此澄清的一點是,當我們今年積累現金,以強勁勢頭進入明年並預計再積累 3.5 億美元以上時,我們將採取機會主義態度。
You've seen obviously the debt price higher as people are more confident in that cash build.
您顯然已經看到,隨著人們對現金累積更有信心,債務價格更高。
But if there are opportunities to buy at a price that makes sense to take that number down along the path to the refinance that I think is going to make more sense as we look at the overall cost of capital, then we'll certainly do that.
但如果有機會以合理的價格購買,在再融資的過程中降低這個數字,我認為當我們考慮總體資本成本時,這將更有意義,那麼我們肯定會這樣做。
Something tells me that when you demonstrate that you can buy it, generally, the price at which the party wants to sell it negates the desire to do that.
有件事告訴我,當你證明你可以購買它時,一般來說,一方想要出售它的價格會抵消這樣做的願望。
So -- but we're going to stay open to what creates the most value.
所以——但我們將對創造最大價值的事物保持開放。
But we do believe, for the reasons John said and having had a strong background in IR coming in, I think what I look forward to doing is trying to put together a visual that helps people understand what John is talking about.
但我們確實相信,出於約翰所說的原因,並且在 IR 方面擁有強大的背景,我認為我期待做的是嘗試整合一個視覺效果,幫助人們理解約翰正在談論的內容。
There's -- having come from the oil and gas business, I think about the proved value of our reserves that are multiyear and there's a debt stack associated with, but you've got tremendous cash flows that are going to come from those wells that ultimately address that.
來自石油和天然氣業務,我認為我們的儲量的已證實價值是多年的,並且存在與之相關的債務堆棧,但是您將獲得巨大的現金流,這些現金流將來自最終將產生的油井。問題。
And we can illuminate how this all fits together that you've got more than just the adder cash flow coming back.
我們可以說明這一切是如何結合在一起的,你得到的不僅僅是加法器現金流回來。
You've got tremendous underlying value in these multi-decade systems.
這些數十年的系統具有巨大的潛在價值。
So we'll put that together and help crystallize exactly how we're thinking about the upcoming, both paydowns, opportunistically and in ordinary course refinance.
因此,我們將把這些放在一起,幫助明確我們對即將到來的付款、機會主義和普通再融資的思考。
Operator
Operator
Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James.
帕維爾·莫爾恰諾夫,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Pavel Molchanov - Analyst
Pavel Molchanov - Analyst
When I look at customer deployments, California got back to pre-NEM 3.0 levels, almost 7,000.
當我查看客戶部署時,加州回到了 NEM 3.0 之前的水平,接近 7,000 個。
Is California actually back to [pre-NEM] 3.0 levels?
加州真的回到了 [NEM 之前] 3.0 的水平嗎?
Or is this just a one-off quarter?
或者這只是一次性的季度?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Pavel, it's John.
嘿,帕維爾,我是約翰。
Yeah, no, it's not a one-off quarter.
是的,不,這不是一次性的季度。
I want to issue a caution that don't take us as for the market because we've been traditionally heavily underweighted in California, as you well know.
我想發出警告,不要將我們視為市場,因為眾所周知,我們在加州傳統上一直嚴重低估。
So -- but we've experienced a market share pickup that was quite meaningful over the last few months.
所以,但在過去的幾個月裡,我們經歷了市場佔有率的上升,這是非常有意義的。
So we do expect that trend to continue.
因此,我們確實預期這種趨勢將持續下去。
Pavel Molchanov - Analyst
Pavel Molchanov - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
That's helpful.
這很有幫助。
I mean you also referenced in your prepared remarks the fact that utility rates keep going up inexorably regardless of what happens with natural gas, for example.
我的意思是,您在準備好的演講中還提到了這樣一個事實,例如,無論天然氣發生什麼情況,公用事業費率都會不可避免地上漲。
Are you noticing demand for rooftop solar picking up in states that historically did not have supportive economics because of what utilities were charging there?
您是否注意到歷史上由於公用事業收費高而沒有經濟支持的州對屋頂太陽能的需求有所回升?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Great question, and the answer is yes.
很好的問題,答案是肯定的。
So I'll give you a couple of specifics.
所以我會給你一些具體細節。
We're seeing pretty good demand, really, really strong demand in Florida, both on -- from a rate standpoint, but more on the reliability.
我們看到佛羅裡達州的需求非常好,非常非常強勁,無論是從費率的角度來看,還是從可靠性的角度來看。
And then in Texas, as we sit here in Houston, power rates have gone up meaningfully, to say the least.
然後在德克薩斯州,當我們坐在休士頓這裡時,至少可以說,電價已經大幅上漲。
And we see that trend 100% guaranteed to continue moving upwards, just giving all the spending that's needed and the growth here.
我們看到這一趨勢 100% 肯定會繼續向上發展,只要提供所有需要的支出和這裡的成長。
So those are two specific markets for you, but the answer to your question is yes.
因此,這對您來說是兩個特定的市場,但您問題的答案是肯定的。
Operator
Operator
Dylan Nassano, Wolfe Research.
迪倫·納薩諾,沃爾夫研究中心。
Dylan Nassano - Analyst
Dylan Nassano - Analyst
I just wanted to touch a little bit more on the equipment front.
我只是想多接觸一下設備的知識。
Just, I guess, how much of a headwind or tailwind was equipment availability during the quarter to get to the domestic content mandate?
只是,我猜,本季設備可用性對於實現國內內容要求有多大的逆風或順風?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
This is John.
這是約翰。
I'd say that the equipment is more available than I think is discussed in the marketplace.
我想說的是,該設備比我想像的市場上討論的更容易獲得。
And that meaningfully is -- the trend has changed to have more availability and lower pricing, I'll add, almost weekly over the last -- really the last three months or so.
有意義的是——趨勢已經改變為有更多的可用性和更低的價格,我會補充說,幾乎每週都在過去——實際上是在過去三個月左右的時間。
And it's not in a linear fashion, which makes sense, right?
而且它不是線性的,這是有道理的,對吧?
Manufacturers have plans to put on -- bring on manufacturing plants and sometimes they don't always go on schedule and be off schedule 15 days, 30 days, 45 days.
製造商有計劃建造製造工廠,但有時他們並不總是按計劃進行,有時會延誤 15 天、30 天、45 天。
But we see quite a large amount of supply coming online here, again, and being delivered really.
但我們看到大量供應再次上線,並且真正交付。
So it's already online being manufactured, being delivered in the field to our dealers in the next two weeks, as I mentioned.
正如我所提到的,它已經在網上製造,並在接下來的兩週內交付給我們的經銷商。
And so the outside there is the next four weeks.
所以外面還有接下來的四週。
So, we're seeing a meaningful pickup of that.
所以,我們看到了這一點有意義的回升。
Some of our suppliers have been there for years, our main supplier on the storage side of things.
我們的一些供應商已經存在多年,我們的主要供應商在儲存方面。
And so we really haven't seen a whole lot of problems there with regards to what our expectations were.
因此,我們確實沒有看到與我們的期望相關的許多問題。
And in fact, I would say, it be fair to say, we've exceeded our expectations both in the speed at which the domestic content equipment has gotten into the field.
事實上,我想說,公平地說,無論是國產設備進入這個領域的速度,我們都超出了我們的預期。
And then secondly, the pricing has not -- in terms of moving up, has not moved up as much and certainly is not stuck in terms of the pricing moving back down to non-domestic.
其次,就上漲而言,定價並沒有上漲那麼多,而且在定價回落到非國內方面當然也沒有陷入困境。
So, we see the competition in the equipment market intensifying as we move forward and bringing further pressure on the equipment side of things, but also giving further margin to our dealers.
因此,隨著我們的前進,我們看到設備市場的競爭加劇,這給設備方面帶來了進一步的壓力,但也為我們的經銷商帶來了更多的利潤。
Dylan Nassano - Analyst
Dylan Nassano - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And then my follow up is for Eric.
然後我的後續行動是埃里克。
So, Eric, I noticed that net contracted customer value, that metric didn't really -- it wasn't really discussed in this discussion around key performance metrics.
所以,埃里克,我注意到淨合約客戶價值,這個指標並沒有真正——在圍繞關鍵績效指標的討論中並沒有真正討論它。
Just curious, did you identify kind of any inherent disadvantages to using that as a key metric?
只是好奇,您是否發現使用它作為關鍵指標有任何固有的缺點?
Or are you looking at potentially some other kind of metric to reflect that long-term contracted value?
或者您正在尋找其他類型的指標來反映長期合約價值?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
No, it's -- I appreciate the question.
不,是——我很欣賞這個問題。
That was just pace of travel and pulling these together.
這只是旅行的速度並將這些整合在一起。
I hope you see there was a pretty broad change in the way that we positioned.
我希望您看到我們的定位方式發生了相當廣泛的變化。
I love that metric, and I should have gotten that in there because I think it is incredibly valuable and something that we should be highlighting.
我喜歡這個指標,我應該把它放在那裡,因為我認為它非常有價值,也是我們應該強調的。
So, watch for that to come.
所以,請留意它的到來。
We'll be adding some slides during the quarter because we're obviously ramping our deck to get out there and do the same thing on the debt side and that's incredibly important.
我們將在本季度添加一些幻燈片,因為我們顯然正在加大力度,在債務方面做同樣的事情,這非常重要。
So there's tremendous analogies.
所以有很多相似之處。
If you all -- for those of you familiar with my background, coming from an oil and gas company that had 70,000 wells where asset retirement obligation was the equivalent of our corporate debt stack that sat in the investors' windshield and we get questions, how in the world are you going to address this big obligation?
如果你們所有人——對於那些熟悉我背景的人來說,來自一家擁有70,000 口油井的石油和天然氣公司,其資產報廢義務相當於我們坐在投資者擋風玻璃上的公司債務堆棧,我們會遇到這樣的問題:您到底要履行這項重大義務嗎?
We would point to the value of our net proved reserves after you stripped off taxes, G&A and other, and just show that there was compelling value.
我們會指出扣除稅金、一般行政費用和其他費用後我們的淨探明儲量的價值,並表明它具有令人信服的價值。
So, I think we can do a lot to show that, that NCCV is a compelling part of the story.
因此,我認為我們可以做很多事情來證明 NCCV 是這個故事中引人注目的部分。
So it was really just a pace issue and not getting that in, but I look forward to illuminating that.
所以這實際上只是一個速度問題,沒有解決這個問題,但我期待著闡明這一點。
Operator
Operator
Ameet Thakkar, BMO Capital Markets.
Ameet Thakkar,BMO 資本市場。
Ameet Thakkar - Analyst
Ameet Thakkar - Analyst
I appreciate, Eric, your comments earlier about, I guess, your decision to kind of either refinance or pay down debt will be kind of determined on kind of debt capital market conditions.
我很欣賞艾瑞克,你之前的評論,我想,你對再融資或償還債務的決定將取決於債務資本市場條件。
But in terms of kind of running the business on a go-forward basis, how much unrestricted cash should we kind of think about that you all need to kind of keep on the balance sheet any time?
但就未來經營業務而言,我們應該考慮多少不受限制的現金,你們都需要隨時保留在資產負債表上?
And then I think the company used to target a debt-to-asset ratio of about 60%.
然後我認為該公司過去的目標是債務資產比約為 60%。
And I don't think we've been down that low for several quarters now.
我認為我們已經好幾個季度沒有跌到那麼低的水平了。
Is the debt capacity for the business in your view a little bit higher maybe than it was in the past?
您認為企業的債務能力是否比過去稍高?
And if so, what's the right kind of a target range for that?
如果是這樣,正確的目標範圍是什麼?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, no, I think you're absolutely thinking about the debt-to-asset ratio correctly.
是的,不,我認為你絕對正確地考慮了債務資產比率。
So, that's something that we are working towards for sure.
所以,這肯定是我們正在努力的方向。
And then on the working capital side, just simplistic math, if you think about being in that $3.5 billion to $4 billion origination range, do the math, that works out to around $80 million -- $75 million, $80 million per week.
然後在營運資金方面,只是簡單的數學計算,如果你考慮在 35 億美元到 40 億美元的發起範圍內,計算一下,每周大約 8000 萬美元、7500 萬美元、8000 萬美元。
If you want to keep four weeks to five weeks of just working capital prudently, that would be right around our year-end exit rate or exit level in that $300 million to $350 million range.
如果你想謹慎地保留四到五週的營運資金,那麼這將是我們年底退出率或退出水平在 3 億美元到 3.5 億美元範圍內。
That's when I think we start getting really comfortable that we've got the excess capacity to start opportunistically looking at those debt buy-ins over the course of the balance of the year.
那時我認為我們開始真正感到放心,因為我們有過剩的產能,可以在今年餘下的時間裡開始機會主義地考慮這些債務買入。
And so hopefully, that makes clear where I sort of want the watermark to be.
希望這能清楚地表明我想要浮水印的位置。
Operator
Operator
Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.
普拉尼思‧薩蒂什,富國銀行。
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Just maybe touching on O&M expenses.
也許只是涉及維運費用。
They've declined quite a bit as a percentage of revenue as you show in the slides.
正如幻燈片中所示,它們佔收入的百分比下降了很多。
I guess two part question here.
我想這裡有兩個部分的問題。
First is, are tax equity investors, are they starting to recognize these cost improvements in their fair market value calculations?
首先,稅務股權投資者是否開始在公平市場價值計算中認識到這些成本改進?
Or is that yet to come?
還是那還沒到來?
And then second, given the organizational changes and everything that you've made, what do you see as a sustainable long-term O&M structure as a percentage of revenue?
其次,考慮到組織的變化和你所做的一切,你認為可持續的長期維運結構佔收入的百分比是多少?
I think it's roughly 8% in the slides, but could it go lower than that over time?
我認為幻燈片中的比例大約是 8%,但隨著時間的推移,它會低於這個數字嗎?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I'll take a stab at that and see if Eric has any other comments.
我會嘗試一下,看看埃里克是否還有其他評論。
So first of all, we've done, as you pointed out, a very good job of driving down the services cost overall as a percentage of revenue.
首先,正如您所指出的,我們在降低整體服務成本佔收入的百分比方面做得非常好。
But really, we look at it.
但實際上,我們看看它。
As a per customer basis, it's gone down meaningfully.
從每個客戶的角度來看,它的下降幅度很大。
We still see meaningful opportunity there to drive the cost down.
我們仍然看到了降低成本的有意義的機會。
And again, I think you'll see that and coupled with more G&A cuts this quarter, so when we report the fourth quarter.
再說一次,我想你會看到這一點,再加上本季更多的一般行政費用削減,所以當我們報告第四季度時。
And then going into next year, I think you'll really like the year-over-year comparison starting again this quarter as we move into next year with regards to spending, whatever relative metric you want to use it as revenue per customer, et cetera.
然後進入明年,我認為您會非常喜歡從本季度開始的同比比較,因為我們進入明年的支出情況,無論您想將其用作每個客戶的收入等相對指標等等。
So, we see a solid trend there with the expense reductions.
因此,我們看到了費用減少的堅實趨勢。
In terms of the tax equity funds, that has more to do with the appraisals and such.
就稅收股權基金而言,更與評估等有關。
And so I don't think that necessarily, they take a look at, other than the fact that they want to make sure that our MSA fees are appropriate for serving the customers and they are.
因此,我認為他們不一定會考慮這一點,除了他們想要確保我們的 MSA 費用適合為客戶提供服務之外,事實也確實如此。
I think we've been the most conservative, maybe coupled with one of our other competitors, most conservative in the industry and certainly much more conservative than others out there.
我認為我們是最保守的,也許再加上我們的其他競爭對手之一,我們是業界中最保守的,而且肯定比其他人保守得多。
So it's something that I think we've done a really good job on.
所以我認為我們在這方面做得非常好。
And other than that, they have not had any questions on.
除此之外,他們沒有提出任何問題。
Eric, anything to add?
艾瑞克,有什麼要補充的嗎?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, no, I think you're spot on.
是的,不,我認為你說得對。
I'd point out, I talked a little bit about my background.
我想指出的是,我談了一些我的背景。
And part of the reason I was excited to join was I looked at the management team that John had put in place that I get to work alongside with.
我很高興加入的部分原因是我看到了約翰組成的與我一起工作的管理團隊。
And many of you all know Paul Mathews, who's our Chief Operating Officer, his background is UPS.
你們很多人都知道保羅馬修斯 (Paul Mathews),他是我們的營運官,他的背景是 UPS。
I can't imagine a better individual looking at a cost structure than someone that comes from an organization that is focused on efficiency and running things on time is that.
我無法想像一個人比來自一個專注於效率和按時運作的組織的人更好地看待成本結構。
And so you've seen in a very short amount of time with Paul at the helm, a relentless focus on cost.
所以你在保羅掌舵的很短的時間內就看到了對成本的不懈關注。
That has rolled forward into the fourth quarter.
這已經進入第四季。
And it's not just -- we talked about rightsizing the workforce, and that's part of it.
這不僅僅是——我們討論了勞動力規模的調整,這也是其中的一部分。
But part of that is reducing where it's not adding the value that it's disproportionate value, but adding where there's pickup.
但其中一部分是減少不增加不成比例的價值的地方,而是增加有拾取價值的地方。
So, capital markets is where we put some additional heads.
因此,資本市場是我們投入更多精力的地方。
But yes, coming into the fourth quarter, you'll see those efficiencies, both from process redesign, leveraging technology and then getting the right bodies in the right place, driving not only O&M lower, but G&A lower in a meaningful way.
但是,是的,進入第四季度,您將看到這些效率,無論是流程重新設計、利用技術,還是將正確的機構放在正確的位置,不僅會降低營運和維護成本,而且會以有意義的方式降低總費用。
So, very excited about the momentum that we have.
因此,我們對我們所擁有的勢頭感到非常興奮。
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
No, that's helpful.
不,這很有幫助。
And then maybe shifting gears.
然後也許會換檔。
In prior calls, you've talked about kind of shifting the dealer payment structure to better align with the activation milestones.
在先前的電話中,您談到了改變經銷商付款結構以更好地與啟動里程碑保持一致。
Can you help quantify maybe, one, what percentage of your dealer network has transitioned to the new structure?
您能否幫忙量化一下,第一,您的經銷商網路中已經過渡到新結構的百分比是多少?
Or what percent do you expect to transition?
或者您預計轉型的百分比是多少?
And then is there any way to quantify what kind of working capital benefit you could get under kind of the new versus the old structure?
那麼有沒有什麼方法可以量化在新結構與舊結構下您可以獲得什麼樣的營運資金收益?
And then finally, is any of this in the cash generation guide for 2025?
最後,2025 年現金產生指南中是否包含這些內容?
Or would this represent potential upside to the guide?
或者這是否代表該指南的潛在優勢?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
This is John.
這是約翰。
I'll try best to answer it.
我會盡力回答。
There's no rule of thumb that we've been able to come up with to say that in terms of the working capital usage drop.
我們無法得出任何經驗法則來說明營運資金使用量的下降。
But it definitely moves the needle.
但它確實起到了推動作用。
If you think about at any point in time, we have somewhere $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion depending on in the season time of the year of backlog at cost.
如果你考慮在任何時間點,我們都有 15 億至 25 億美元的資金,這取決於積壓成本一年中的季節時間。
So the number is of meaning.
所以這個數字是有意義的。
And when you look at 2025, is it baked in there?
當你展望 2025 年時,它已經成熟了嗎?
Probably not.
可能不會。
Not to the degree that we'll see.
還沒有達到我們將要看到的程度。
How many dealers have moved over?
有多少經銷商搬走了?
We're not quite done with that.
我們還沒有完全完成。
We're still working with some of them, but we do expect to move 100% to the changeover there.
我們仍在與其中一些合作,但我們確實希望 100% 進行轉換。
And again, one thing this industry really -- I mean, it's very strange.
再說一次,這個行業真的有一件事——我的意思是,這非常奇怪。
Payments usually are on the short end, 30 days.
付款期限通常較短,即 30 天。
And the industry gotten to a point where it was trying to say that they could send money out within hours, which, there's no safeguards whatsoever as far as where that money is going and in terms of where it's getting, what are you paying for?
該行業已經達到了這樣的地步,他們試圖說他們可以在幾小時內將錢匯出,但就錢的去向和收到的情況而言,沒有任何保障措施,你要付錢做什麼?
Is the job done right or not?
工作做得對還是不對?
So, we never engaged in that, but we certainly had multiple times a week.
所以,我們從未參與過這種活動,但我們每週肯定會參與多次。
This is crazy.
這太瘋狂了。
And these are jobs that take months, not even days to get done.
這些工作需要幾個月甚至幾天才能完成。
So when you look at what we've done is really -- I talked to other industries, they're quite shocked that they're even talking about paying much less than 30 days.
因此,當你看到我們所做的事情時,我與其他行業進行了交談,他們非常震驚,因為他們甚至談論的付款時間遠少於 30 天。
So, I just think there needs to be an overall reset here in terms of expectations.
所以,我只是認為需要對期望進行整體重置。
And we've seen that in the marketplace and to have a better management of working capital all through the industry.
我們已經在市場上看到了這一點,並在整個行業中更好地管理營運資金。
And we've certainly seen that.
我們當然已經看到了這一點。
Our better dealers are all on board.
我們更好的經銷商都在船上。
They're, like, this makes total sense.
他們就像,這完全有道理。
It keeps out the riff-raff from the industry.
它將不法之徒拒之門外。
So, we're seeing good consideration and better capital management, which I know will give confidence to lenders, commercial banks and others to actually start putting more working capital back in the industry, which is this industry needs to, of course, grow and get back on a growth trajectory.
因此,我們看到了良好的考慮和更好的資本管理,我知道這將為貸款機構、商業銀行和其他機構帶來信心,讓他們真正開始向該行業投入更多的營運資金,當然,這個行業需要發展壯大。
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
And I'd just complement that by saying, one, I think John is exactly right that this discipline is working its way into the dealer network as well.
我只想補充說,第一,我認為約翰是完全正確的,這一學科也正在進入經銷商網路。
That's just going to step up the service that the customer sees and feels.
這只會加強客戶看到和感受到的服務。
But the reason that we added slide 7 was to go, I think, more philosophically to your point.
但我認為,我們添加投影片 7 的原因是為了更哲學地表達您的觀點。
Like John said, it's difficult to quantify the exact contribution of the four priorities that we put on this slide.
正如約翰所說,很難量化我們在這張投影片上提出的四個優先事項的確切貢獻。
The lower right quadrant was the optimizing working capital.
右下象限是優化營運資金。
But just innocently.
但也只是無辜而已。
In all truth, if I were to pick the numbers that are probably the most relevant for this slide, rather than using revenue, I'd use originations because it really is driving to, as you're originating business, what's happening to your net cash user generation?
事實上,如果我要選擇可能與這張投影片最相關的數字,而不是使用收入,我會使用起源,因為當你發起業務時,它確實會推動你的網路發生什麼現金用戶世代?
And you obviously want to see that even as you're growing, you're managing working capital to keep positive cash flow.
您顯然希望看到,即使您在成長,您也能管理營運資金以保持正現金流。
We use revenue because that tied the financials.
我們使用收入是因為這與財務狀況掛鉤。
It was a proxy for the same thing, just making the point.
它是同一件事的代理,只是表明了這一點。
As the business has grown, you see revenue going from $60 million to almost $200 million, so nearly triple as high.
隨著業務的成長,您會看到收入從 6000 萬美元增加到近 2 億美元,幾乎是原來的三倍。
You've seen a tremendous contraction in the net use of cash over that period of time.
您已經看到那段時間現金淨使用量大幅收縮。
And I asked myself, again, I'm reverse engineering and understanding of what this engine does.
我再次問自己,我正在逆向工程並了解這個引擎的作用。
How do we do that?
我們該怎麼做呢?
And it wasn't the adders because the adders are new.
這不是加法器,因為加法器是新的。
The adders are helping us inflect to a strong positive position, but those are enhanced by the things that we've already been doing, which is focusing on margin over growth, making sure that we're pricing our business properly, that we're stewarding the resources that we have and managing our cost discipline and optimizing cash flow going back and saying, hey, let's do the simple math of making sure that our inflows and outflows are matched up.
這些增加者正在幫助我們轉向一個強大的積極位置,但這些都透過我們已經在做的事情得到了加強,這些事情是專注於利潤而不是成長,確保我們正確定價我們的業務,我們管理我們擁有的資源,管理我們的成本紀律,優化現金流,然後說,嘿,讓我們做一個簡單的數學計算,確保我們的流入和流出相匹配。
The aggregate of that, you can see is what the whole point of slide 7 to show that we've done a great job in spite of growing the business and that EPC growth, managing cash in a much more prudent way.
總而言之,您可以看到幻燈片 7 的全部要點,它表明,儘管業務不斷增長,EPC 也在增長,並以更加審慎的方式管理現金,但我們仍然做得很好。
Operator
Operator
Chris Dendrinos, RBC Capital Markets.
Chris Dendrinos,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。
Chris Dendrinos - Analyst
Chris Dendrinos - Analyst
I wanted to start here just on the prepayments, and you highlighted that it's trending above forecast here.
我想從預付款開始,您強調它的趨勢高於預測。
So, maybe looking at 2025, what's the expectation for payment proceeds or I guess, prepayments?
那麼,也許展望 2025 年,付款收益或預付款的預期是什麼?
And then how much, I guess, upside is that if this trend of prepayments kind of continues?
那麼,我想,如果這種預付款趨勢持續下去,會有多少好處呢?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
Thanks for asking.
謝謝你的詢問。
I need to go back and actually pull that specific number.
我需要回去實際提取那個特定的數字。
You can see that we're rounding out this year a 20% increase over last year at nearly $200 million.
您可以看到,我們今年的支出比去年增加了 20%,達到近 2 億美元。
I'd say trended at about the same clip higher with a bias to going higher if we continue to see rate cuts because that will obviously compound the potential growth.
我想說的是,如果我們繼續看到降息,那麼趨勢會以大致相同的速度走高,並且傾向於走高,因為這顯然會加劇潛在的成長。
But conservatively, we're just over that $200 million mark.
但保守地說,我們剛好超過 2 億美元大關。
And we do see this as a tremendous opportunity.
我們確實認為這是一個巨大的機會。
If rates stay higher, then you've obviously got tremendous catalysts to continue to keep customers focused on leases and that comes with the tax added benefits.
如果利率保持在較高水平,那麼顯然您將獲得巨大的催化劑來繼續讓客戶專注於租賃,並且隨之而來的是稅收附加福利。
But if rates trended lower and we saw -- even though I think the industry will really coalesce around the lease product for many reasons, this embedded optionality within our loan portfolio unlocks as we see rates go lower.
但如果利率呈下降趨勢,我們看到——儘管我認為該行業確實會出於多種原因圍繞租賃產品聯合起來,但當我們看到利率下降時,我們貸款組合中的這種嵌入的選擇性就會釋放出來。
So it's a nice counterbalance.
所以這是一個很好的平衡。
We didn't really factor that into the guidance slide.
我們並沒有真正將其納入指導幻燈片中。
I'd say that's just one of the many conservative levers that John alluded to that we've included in our cash guidance.
我想說,這只是約翰提到的我們已納入現金指引的眾多保守槓桿之一。
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
This is John.
這是約翰。
One thing I'll add to it is remember that the driver of the prepayments is actually the home sale of the transaction.
我要補充的一件事是,請記住,預付款的驅動因素實際上是交易的房屋銷售。
And so regardless of where the mortgage rates may or may not be, if at some point, life events happen, you have to move.
因此,無論抵押貸款利率可能是或不是,如果在某個時候發生生活事件,您就必須搬家。
And we are now completing the second year of a very abysmal existing home sales market.
現在,現房銷售市場的慘淡狀況即將進入第二年。
So at some point, the market has got to move up regardless of what happens.
因此,在某個時候,無論發生什麼,市場都必須上漲。
Maybe that's next year.
也許那是明年。
We've certainly seen signs of life, as you can see, because the prepayment rate is going up, but our loan book is actually not increasing very much at all.
正如你所看到的,我們當然已經看到了生命的跡象,因為提前還款率正在上升,但我們的貸款帳簿實際上根本沒有增加太多。
So that tells us that the overall rate is moving up meaningfully and probably it is highly likely as transactions picked up, maybe home prices come off, for instance, next year, then the prepayment speed will continue its upward trajectory, as Eric said.
因此,這告訴我們,整體利率正在顯著上升,而且很可能隨著交易的增加,也許房價會下降,例如明年,那麼預付款速度將繼續其上升軌跡,正如艾瑞克所說。
Chris Dendrinos - Analyst
Chris Dendrinos - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And then maybe as a follow-up here.
然後也許作為這裡的後續行動。
You highlighted -- split the WIP, and I think it was maybe $300 million -- $3 million so far of proceeds from that.
你強調——分割 WIP,我認為這可能是 3 億美元——迄今為止的收益是 300 萬美元。
What's left to go?
還剩下什麼?
And does that go into next year?
這會持續到明年嗎?
Or is this, I guess, maybe a strategy that kind of wraps up year-end just with the timing of originations and when you get those systems online?
或者,我猜,這可能是一種在年底結束的策略,只是根據啟動時間以及這些系統何時上線?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
是的。
We see a meaningful upside.
我們看到了有意義的上升空間。
I would say probably the top end is $100 million.
我想說最高可能是 1 億美元。
And even we didn't account for anything.
甚至我們也沒有考慮到任何事情。
So, we're $3 million ahead of where we accounted for in our forecasting.
因此,我們比我們的預測提前了 300 萬美元。
Most of that probably will end up this year, but there's a decent chance that some of those systems go in service in Q1 of '25.
其中大部分可能會在今年結束,但其中一些系統很有可能在 25 年第一季投入使用。
Operator
Operator
Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank.
科琳‧布蘭查德,德意志銀行。
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
I have two questions.
我有兩個問題。
So the first one.
所以第一個。
Could you talk about the attachment rate?
能談談附著率嗎?
I think it has been relatively stable since June.
我認為自六月以來一直相對穩定。
Maybe if you can talk about what you see in California and the other states?
也許您可以談談您在加利福尼亞州和其他州看到的情況?
And then the second question would be, did you -- have you guys run any analysis or like scenario in the case of a Trump or a Republican win?
然後第二個問題是,你們是否對川普或共和黨獲勝的情況進行過任何分析或類似的情景?
Like how much could that impact your cash generation into '25 and '26 if we see some of those maybe the others being removed or if we see some of the ITC credit being fading away faster than currently?
例如,如果我們看到其中一些可能會被取消,或者如果我們看到一些 ITC 信貸比現在更快消失,那麼這會對您在 25 和 26 年的現金產生多大影響?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
This is John.
這是約翰。
I'll take the last one first.
我先拿最後一個。
I don't want to get into the speculation of what happens and such in the IRA.
我不想猜測愛爾蘭共和軍中發生的事情等等。
I think you all are well equipped just as me to come up with all the different permutations.
我認為你們和我一樣都有能力想出所有不同的排列方式。
Again, our comments were that we actually see, particularly in the domestic content, which is the main adder that both parties actually agree.
同樣,我們的評論是我們實際看到的,特別是在國內內容中,這是雙方實際上都同意的主要加法器。
So, I think some of -- again, the rhetoric versus what I see as the reality or we see as a reality is something that needs to be considered heavily.
因此,我認為一些言論與我所看到的現實或我們所看到的現實之間的關係是需要認真考慮的。
And candidly, it's very obvious that the market is not right now.
坦白說,很明顯,現在的市場並不合適。
I mean, people are just absolutely, beside themselves with concern about the election and it probably doesn't help that today's Halloween too.
我的意思是,人們對選舉的擔憂絕對是瘋狂的,這可能對今天的萬聖節也沒有幫助。
So when you look at the -- what our response would be, we're going to run the business the same way regardless of who wins on Tuesday and what happens.
因此,當你看看我們的反應時,我們將以同樣的方式經營業務,無論週二誰獲勝以及發生什麼。
The utilities keep raising their prices.
公用事業公司不斷提高價格。
And so that gives us the ability to raise price.
這使我們有能力提高價格。
It goes back to my point about stop looking at one piece of the value input versus others in the equation.
這又回到了我的觀點,停止關注方程式中的一個值輸入與其他值輸入。
The overall, it's very clear, utility rates are moving up, equipment prices are moving down.
總體而言,很明顯,公用事業費率正在上升,設備價格正在下降。
Cost of capital is now at worst sideways to moving down.
資本成本現在最壞的情況是橫盤下降。
That has created a nice wedge and that wedge continues to expand.
這就形成了一個很好的楔子,而這個楔子還在繼續擴大。
So if something were to happen to some of the adders or whatever, we'd raise price.
因此,如果某些加法器或其他什麼發生問題,我們就會提高價格。
I mean that's full stop.
我的意思是,這就是句號。
That's what it would be.
事情就是這樣。
And we feel good about that.
我們對此感覺良好。
When you look at storage attachment rates, they've moved up meaningfully this year.
當您查看儲存附加率時,您會發現今年的儲存附加率顯著上升。
You can see that was going back to my earlier point about CapEx per customer has gone up meaningfully, and we expect that trend to continue.
您可以看到,這可以追溯到我之前關於每個客戶的資本支出顯著上升的觀點,我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。
Part of that is California.
其中一部分是加州。
We are seeing a pretty good attachment rate there, north of 50%, I think north of 60% actually.
我們看到那裡的依戀率相當高,超過 50%,我認為實際上超過 60%。
And then we have a number of important markets like Puerto Rico that have been at 100% for years.
我們還有一些重要的市場,例如波多黎各,多年來一直處於 100% 的狀態。
We see a meaningful attachment rate progress in Florida.
我們看到佛羅裡達州的依戀率取得了有意義的進展。
I'm starting to see some of that in Texas, and that's based off the storm impact most likely.
我開始在德克薩斯州看到其中的一些情況,這很可能是基於風暴的影響。
So as storage continues to drop in price and domestically produce storage at that, then we expect that storage attachment rate to continue to trend higher, and that enables and unlocks more value for energy services or grid services or VPP, whatever you want to call it, we're seeing more and more revenue coming in the door based on our fleet as well.
因此,隨著儲能價格持續下降並在國內生產儲能,我們預計儲能附加率將繼續呈上升趨勢,這將為能源服務、電網服務或VPP(無論你怎麼稱呼它)提供和釋放更多價值,我們也看到越來越多的收入來自我們的機隊。
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
And it enhances our securitizations because the perception is, obviously, when you have storage attached, you have more price elasticity and you also have greater certainty around customer payments.
它增強了我們的證券化,因為顯然,當您附加儲存時,您的價格彈性更大,而且客戶付款也有更大的確定性。
So, I think that seeing that trend higher is good on all aspects of our business.
因此,我認為看到這種走高的趨勢對我們業務的各個方面都有好處。
And I would point back to, as John said, if you look at that slide 10, where we tried to show a lot of purple and the overlap, that graph on the -- if you want to call it the Trump side of the slide, that shows that 78% of the economic value created by the jobs sit in those districts.
我想回顧一下,正如約翰所說,如果你看幻燈片10,我們試圖在其中顯示大量紫色和重疊部分,如果你想將其稱為幻燈片的川普一側,那麼我會指出該圖,這顯示就業機會創造的經濟價值的 78% 位於這些地區。
I think that's just really powerful to make the point that the job creation, that bringing the domestic manufacturing home and what it does for the country is just so widely viewed positively by both sides.
我認為這確實有力地表明了雙方廣泛積極看待創造就業機會、將國內製造業帶回國內以及它為國家所做的事情。
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
And then maybe if you can just talk about the attachment rate for the first question.
然後也許您可以談談第一個問題的附件率。
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Do we see that trending higher?
我們看到這種趨勢更高嗎?
Was that the question?
是這個問題嗎?
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
I mean, yes, it has been kind of flat, I think, since June.
我的意思是,是的,我認為自六月以來一直持平。
And I just wanted to know like, hey, do you see obviously a higher attachment rate in California?
我只是想知道,嘿,你是否發現加州的依戀率明顯更高?
And what are the trends like outside of California?
加州以外地區的趨勢如何?
Just like high-level thoughts on maybe how we think about it into '25?
就像關於 25 世紀我們如何看待它的高層想法?
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Eric Williams - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah.
是的。
It's moved up pretty significantly.
它已經相當顯著地上升了。
So yes, we see that moving -- continue to move higher.
所以,是的,我們看到了這種趨勢——繼續走高。
Operator
Operator
Kashy Harrison, Piper Sandler.
卡希·哈里森,派珀·桑德勒。
Kashy Harrison - Analyst
Kashy Harrison - Analyst
So, just curious about competition on the TPO side.
所以,只是對 TPO 方面的競爭感到好奇。
Are you still seeing rational pricing from new entrants in the marketplace?
您是否仍然看到市場新進入者的合理定價?
Or has that calmed down a bit?
或者說已經平靜了一點?
And then also just following up on some of the points you were making on working capital, John.
約翰,然後也只是跟進您在營運資本方面提出的一些觀點。
Do you see working capital as a limiter on growth rates for the industry in general?
您是否認為營運資本是整個產業成長率的限制因素?
And does a TPO pivot actually make that working capital limiter more acute?
TPO 轉向實際上會使營運資本限制變得更加嚴重嗎?
Or are you still seeing aggressive working capital strategies from your competitors loan or lease?
或者您仍然看到競爭對手的貸款或租賃採取激進的營運資金策略?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
是的。
So in terms of the competition, competition is great.
所以從競爭的角度來說,競爭是很大的。
Quite frankly, the power industry in the United States needs more competition, not less.
坦白說,美國電力產業需要更多而不是更少的競爭。
And yes, I'm speaking of the utilities, the monopolies.
是的,我說的是公用事業、壟斷企業。
So, we're a fan.
所以,我們是粉絲。
Now, with that said, I expect our team to win the competition, right?
話雖如此,我希望我們隊能贏得比賽,對嗎?
So right now, what we're seeing is we have the best platform.
所以現在,我們看到的是我們擁有最好的平台。
We have the best services to our dealers, best service to our customers and we're winning.
我們為經銷商提供最好的服務,為客戶提供最好的服務,我們正在獲勝。
And you can see that on our market share increase on slide 19 as an example of that.
您可以在幻燈片 19 上看到我們的市場份額成長作為一個例子。
So, we expect that to continue.
因此,我們預計這種情況會持續下去。
I'm here to drive and create shareholder value.
我來這裡是為了推動和創造股東價值。
And so we're going to balance that off.
所以我們要平衡這一點。
We're certainly not going to go into a growth-only mode that it doesn't matter how much money we make or don't make, that's not going to happen.
我們當然不會進入只追求成長的模式,無論我們賺多少錢或不賺多少錢,這種情況都不會發生。
And are some of the competitors doing that?
一些競爭對手正在這樣做嗎?
Yes, but they have gotten better, in particular, one of them has.
是的,但他們已經變得更好了,尤其是其中一個。
So I see -- overall, I see, one, the market is big enough to have multiple competitors.
所以我認為,總的來說,我認為,第一,市場足夠大,可以有多個競爭對手。
We're not after market share gains or market share gains.
我們不追求市場佔有率的成長或市場佔有率的成長。
We're here to create cash generation as we've laid out very clearly.
正如我們已經非常明確地闡述的那樣,我們來這裡是為了創造現金。
In the sense of working capital, yes, I've been pounding the table on this for 2.5 years, if not longer, Kashy, as you know, and I said this is the issue.
就營運資金而言,是的,我已經在這個問題上敲擊了 2.5 年,甚至更長時間,Kashy,如你所知,我說這就是問題所在。
It's not interest rates.
這不是利率。
It's working capital decline.
這是營運資金下降。
The velocity of capital moving in this sector is evidenced by the share prices, like, look at ours, it continues to decline.
這個產業的資本流動速度可以用股價來證明,看看我們的股價,它正在持續下跌。
This is the fact.
這是事實。
Now, I think it's a lot of election fears and such that are not well-founded fears, but the fact is the velocity of capital continues to decline.
現在,我認為許多對選舉的擔憂都不是毫無根據的擔憂,但事實是資本流通速度持續下降。
Is that bad?
那很糟糕嗎?
That is very bad.
那是非常糟糕的。
And until it picks up, then the growth of the industry is going to continue to be under pressure.
在復甦之前,該行業的成長將繼續面臨壓力。
When will it pick up?
什麼時候會回升?
I don't know.
我不知道。
It could pick up next week when the election is over.
下週選舉結束後,情況可能會有所改善。
It could do that because what's going to drive more capital in this industry, more cash generation, better unit economics, which we -- we have the best unit economics we've ever seen as an industry.
它可以做到這一點,因為這將推動這個行業更多的資本、更多的現金產生、更好的單位經濟效益,而我們擁有我們所見過的最好的單位經濟效益。
Whether you're looking at a contractor, one of our dealers are looking at us, we've got really good economics and those economics are improving.
無論您是在尋找承包商,還是我們的經銷商之一都在尋找我們,我們都擁有非常好的經濟效益,而且這些經濟效益正在改善。
Why are they improving?
為什麼他們在進步?
Utility rates moving down, equipment prices moving down -- utility rates moving up, sorry, and equipment prices moving down.
公用事業費率下降,設備價格下降—抱歉,公用事業費率上升,設備價格下降。
It's creating that value edge.
它正在創造價值優勢。
So is it exacerbated in terms of the working capital by the movement to TPO?
那麼,轉向 TPO 是否會加劇營運資本方面的情況?
Yeah.
是的。
Each one of these funds, tax capital funds need to be closed and need to be tied off, and that is very different than just having a warehouse sitting there with loans and having loans just come through on an assembly line.
這些基金中的每一項,即稅收資本基金都需要關閉並被捆綁,這與僅僅擁有一個帶有貸款的倉庫並讓貸款在裝配線上通過是非常不同的。
It is much more difficult to do.
做起來要困難得多。
This is why you're seeing a lot of players going back to the aforementioned competitors really struggle with it.
這就是為什麼你會看到很多玩家回到上述競爭對手時確實遇到了困難。
It looks a lot easier than it actually is.
它看起來比實際上容易得多。
And the current climate in terms of concerns and checking things off and the new adders and all this other stuff just adds more complexity to it.
目前的擔憂和核對氣氛以及新的加法器和所有其他東西只會增加更多的複雜性。
So yes, that wasn't helpful, isn't helpful.
所以是的,這沒有幫助,沒有幫助。
But at the same time, overall, it accretes to the benefit of the so-called big players like ourselves, obviously, with really just really two in the space, accretes to the benefit of the platform that we have, the experience we have, again, the top dealer services we have and customer service we have.
但同時,總的來說,它有利於像我們這樣的所謂大玩家的利益,顯然,在這個空間中只有兩個人,有利於我們擁有的平台、我們擁有的經驗,再說一次,我們擁有頂級的經銷商服務和客戶服務。
Operator
Operator
Maheep Mandloi, Mizuho.
馬希普‧曼德洛伊,瑞穗。
Maheep Mandloi - Analyst
Maheep Mandloi - Analyst
Two quick ones.
兩個快的。
Just first on, if you're seeing any shortages on batteries maybe for Tesla, like we've been hearing somewhat around that and if that's impacting Q4 or Q1 here?
首先,如果您發現特斯拉的電池短缺,就像我們已經聽到一些相關情況一樣,這是否會影響第四季或第一季?
And secondly, on the service customers, you talked about for next year, 10% of that $127 million.
其次,關於服務客戶,您談到明年的 1.27 億美元中的 10%。
So is that all organic?
那麼這都是有機的嗎?
Or are you assuming any acquisitions from any of the installers or dealers who went bankrupt here?
還是你假設這裡破產的安裝商或經銷商有任何收購?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I'll answer the last one, Maheep.
我會回答最後一個問題,Maheep。
No, that's all organic.
不,那都是有機的。
I don't -- actually, we wouldn't acquire customers from bankrupt dealers and such.
我不——實際上,我們不會從破產的經銷商等那裡獲取客戶。
But these are customers that are coming to us that may have had a bad experience with somebody else, a competitor -- direct competitor or somebody who got talked into cash-only type of transaction or a loan with no service at all, which is most unfortunate.
但是,這些來到我們這裡的客戶可能與其他人、競爭對手(直接競爭對手)有過不好的經歷,或者與只接受現金類型的交易或根本沒有服務的貸款的人有過不好的經歷,這是最重要的。
But other than that, these are organic.
但除此之外,這些都是有機的。
In the sense of your first question, can you remind me exactly what you're looking for there on the first question?
從你的第一個問題的意義上來說,你能準確地提醒我你在第一個問題中要尋找什麼嗎?
Maheep Mandloi - Analyst
Maheep Mandloi - Analyst
Yeah.
是的。
I just saw some checks suggesting the shortage of Tesla batteries in the ecosystem here.
我剛剛看到一些檢查表明這裡的生態系統中特斯拉電池短缺。
I'm sure you or your installers have inventory on hand.
我確信您或您的安裝人員手邊有庫存。
So, I just wanted to understand if those shortages are impacting Q4 or Q1 for you guys?
所以,我只是想了解這些短缺是否會影響你們的第四季或第一季?
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Okay.
好的。
So in terms of -- we don't normally comment on a specific, and that's I was trying to figure out if it was more specific.
因此,就我們通常不會對具體問題發表評論而言,我試圖弄清楚它是否更具體。
But we do have a very good relationship with Tesla.
但我們確實與特斯拉有著非常好的關係。
I think everybody is well aware of that.
我想大家都很清楚這一點。
And we bought a lot of those little batteries over the years, and we bought a lot this year.
這些年來我們買了很多這樣的小電池,今年我們也買了很多。
We'll buy a lot in the fourth quarter, and we don't anticipate problems.
我們將在第四季度購買大量產品,預計不會出現問題。
They've been a good partner to work with.
他們一直是很好的合作夥伴。
Others, again, the equipment market is amply supplied and getting more so and getting more so quite quickly on the domestic side in domestic manufacturing.
另外,國內製造業的設備市場供應充足,而且供應量越來越大,而且供應速度很快。
So, we got a number of valued partners there that make great equipment and new products are coming out all the time.
因此,我們在那裡擁有許多有價值的合作夥伴,他們製造出色的設備,並且新產品不斷問世。
But we don't -- we haven't seen any equipment availability issues that we didn't anticipate.
但我們沒有——我們沒有看到任何我們沒有預料到的設備可用性問題。
Operator
Operator
We have no further questions.
我們沒有其他問題了。
I'll hand back to John Berger for any closing comments.
我將把任何結束語交還給約翰·伯傑。
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
William Berger - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
It is all about execution, execution on flipping the WIP, execution on in-service, execution on asset level capital closings, execution on efficiency, all coming together to drive execution on cash generation to pay down corporate debt.
這一切都與執行有關,翻轉在製品的執行、在役執行、資產層級資本關閉的執行、效率的執行,所有這些都共同推動現金生成的執行,以償還公司債務。
Thank you for joining us, and Happy Halloween.
謝謝您加入我們,祝萬聖節快樂。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
This now concludes today's call.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you all for joining.
感謝大家的加入。
You may now disconnect your lines.
現在您可以斷開線路。