使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, greetings and welcome to the Nomad Foods first-quarter 2026 earnings Q&A Session. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加 Nomad Foods 2026 年第一季財報電話會議問答環節。目前所有與會者皆處於僅收聽模式。提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jason English, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我想把電話交給本次會議主持人——投資人關係主管 Jason English。謝謝。您可以開始了。
Jason English - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy
Jason English - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy
Hello. Good morning, folks, and welcome to Nomad Foods' first-quarter 2026 earnings question-and-answer session. We've posted the Associated Press release, prepared remarks, and investor presentation on Nomad Foods' website at nomadfoods.com. I hope you've all had a chance to review them.
各位好。各位早安,歡迎參加 Nomad Foods 2026 年第一季財報問答環節。我們已在 Nomad Foods 官網 nomadfoods.com 上發布相關新聞稿、事先準備的發言稿以及投資人簡報。希望各位都已經有機會閱讀。
I'm Jason English, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy. And I'm joined by Dominic Brisby, our CEO; and Ruben Baldew, our CFO. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about performance that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations, and intentions at this time. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, which were discussed in our press release, our filings with the SEC and in our investor presentation, which includes cautionary language.
我是投資人關係與企業策略主管 Jason English。與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Dominic Brisby,以及財務長 Ruben Baldew。在本次電話會議中,我們將就公司表現發表前瞻性陳述,這些陳述係基於我們目前對公司前景、預期與意圖的看法。由於風險與不確定性,實際結果可能有所不同;相關內容已在我們的新聞稿、向 SEC 提交的文件以及投資人簡報中討論,並包含警示性語言。
We will also discuss non-IFRS financial measures during this call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered replacement for and should be read together with IFRS results. Users can find the IRRS to non-IFRS reconciliations within our earnings release and in the appendices at the end of the slide presentation available on our website.
我們也將在今天的電話會議中討論非 IFRS 財務衡量指標。這些非 IFRS 財務衡量指標不應被視為 IFRS 結果的替代,且應與 IFRS 結果一併閱讀。使用者可在我們的財報新聞稿以及官網提供之投影片簡報末尾附錄中,找到 IFRS 與非 IFRS 的調節表。
Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represents adjusted figures. All adjusted figures have been adjusted primarily for, when applicable, share-based payment expenses and related employer payroll taxes, exceptional items, foreign currency, translation charges, gains, and hedging effectiveness. Unless otherwise noted, comments from here will refer to those adjusted numbers.
請注意,本簡報中的部分財務資訊為調整後數字。所有調整後數字主要在適用時針對以下項目進行調整:股份基礎給付費用及相關雇主薪資稅、一次性項目、外幣換算費用、收益,以及避險有效性等。除非另有說明,接下來的評論將以這些調整後數字為準。
With that, Ryan, back to you. Let's open the line to questions.
那麼,Ryan,交還給你。我們開始開放提問。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Scott Marks, Jefferies.
謝謝。各位女士、先生,我們現在開始問答環節。(接線員指示)Jefferies 的 Scott Marks。
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Hey, good morning all. Thanks very much for taking our questions this morning.
各位早安。非常感謝今天早上接受我們的提問。
Wanted to start just to ask about the quarter itself. It seems like some of the disruption tied to price negotiations came in a little bit better than feared. I know you called out some strong growth in markets outside of UK, France, and Germany. Just wondering if you can help us understand to what you attribute the better performance and how should we be thinking about that level of potential disruption for Q2 and beyond.
我想先從本季表現本身問起。看起來與價格談判相關的一些干擾,實際上比原先擔心的要好一些。我知道你們提到英國、法國和德國以外市場有強勁成長。想請你們協助我們理解,較佳表現主要歸因於哪些因素?以及我們應該如何看待第二季及之後可能出現的干擾程度?
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning. Thank you for the question. This is Dominic. So the quarter did come in slightly more better than we were expecting in terms of category growth. So it came in at 3.8%, which was stronger than we'd expected. And as a result of that, our top-line performance was slightly better than we'd been planning for and drove upsides through the P&L.
早安,謝謝你的問題。我是 Dominic。本季在品類成長方面確實比我們預期略好一些,品類成長率為 3.8%,高於我們原先預估。因此,我們的營收表現也略優於規劃,並在損益表上帶來正向貢獻。
Going forward, we continue to anchor to a category growth of roughly 2%, which is consistent with what we saw last year. We're encouraged by our strengths year to date, but as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, some of that is likely due to various factors such as an earlier Easter this year, some A&P phasing and so on. And of course, the broader economic and consumer backdrop remains pretty dynamic. So we don't believe now is the right time to start embedding more optimistic planning assumptions.
展望未來,我們仍以約 2% 的品類成長作為基準,這與去年所見一致。我們對年初至今的強勢表現感到鼓舞,但如同我在事先準備的發言中提到,其中一部分可能來自多項因素,例如今年復活節較早、部分 A&P(廣告與促銷)時點的移轉等等。當然,整體經濟與消費者環境仍相當多變。因此,我們認為現在並不是把更樂觀的規劃假設納入模型的適當時機。
If you look in terms of what's been happening with retailers, so we told you last quarter that we were planning for some disruptions as we implemented our price increases, given that this is a fairly normal occurrence in many European markets. And those planning assumptions that we made ended up being prudent as we did experience some disruptions, primarily in France and Germany. And they weighed in on both our sell-in and more recently our sell-out performance.
若從零售商端來看,我們在上季就告訴各位,鑑於在許多歐洲市場這是相當常見的情況,我們在推動漲價時已規劃會出現一些干擾。我們當時所做的規劃假設最終證明是審慎的,因為我們確實遭遇了一些干擾,主要發生在法國與德國,並對我們的 sell-in(出貨至通路)以及近期的 sell-out(終端銷售)表現造成壓力。
Now a couple of retailers temporarily suspended orders for some of our products and cancelled some promotions. And this resulted in some out of stocks when combined with lower promotions, negatively impacted our market share in March, which also continued through April weighing on shipments in that month. And you also see that in Nielsen when the next batch of Nielsen data is released.
有幾家零售商曾暫時停止對我們部分產品下單,並取消了一些促銷活動。當這些情況與促銷減少疊加時,導致部分缺貨,並在 3 月對我們的市占率造成負面影響;這種情況也延續到 4 月,對該月出貨造成壓力。當 Nielsen 下一批數據發布時,你們也會在 Nielsen 數據中看到這一點。
The good news is that those issues are now behind us and were anticipated already in our full-year guidance. We've now secured our plan pricing, our sales are being restocked, and we have robust promotional plans in all our markets for the remainder of the year.
好消息是,這些問題現在已經過去,而且我們在全年財測指引中也已預先納入。我們目前已確保按計畫的定價,通路端也正在補貨,並且在今年剩餘期間於所有市場都有強健的促銷計畫。
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Understood. Appreciate the context there. The next one, you made a comment in your prepared remarks about previously operating with a more narrow portfolio focus, but now kind of removing some of those obstacles. Wondering if you can share a bit more context about this strategy and what exactly you mean by that.
了解,謝謝你提供的背景。下一題,你在事先準備的發言中提到,過去公司以較狹窄的產品組合為重點,但現在正在移除一些障礙。想請你分享更多這項策略的背景,以及你所指的具體意思是什麼。
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we'll be able to be much more expansive on precisely what that means and when we have our analysts and Investor Day in the fall. But to give you a rough view of where our heading is thinking, previously Nomad had quite a strong focus on products which in one way or another could be described as healthy and some of those worked very well. However, we consider our ability to be a real champion of frozen food and of course, some frozen food is very healthy. But sometimes as part of a very good and very balanced diet, you may choose to have the occasional treat or the occasional product or brand that is less healthy.
我們會在秋季舉辦分析師與投資人日(Investor Day)時,更完整地說明這代表什麼以及時間點。不過先給你一個大致方向:過去 Nomad 對某些可被描述為「健康」的產品有相當強的聚焦,其中一些表現非常好。然而,我們認為我們有能力成為冷凍食品的真正領導者;當然,部分冷凍食品非常健康。但有時候,作為良好且均衡飲食的一部分,你也可能會選擇偶爾犒賞自己,或選擇某些相對不那麼健康的產品或品牌。
So we're going to give ourselves more flexibility in doing what is commercially successful rather than simply driving a health agenda. So we'll give you much more details of that later in the year.
因此,我們會讓自己在商業上更具彈性,去做更能取得商業成功的事情,而不只是推動健康議程。我們會在今年稍晚提供更多細節。
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Understood. And then maybe if I could just squeeze in one more. Obviously, there's been a lot of volatility, especially around energy costs and inflationary pressures like the Middle East conflict. I'm wondering if you can just help us understand how you see that impacting your business, whether for this year or beyond? Thanks.
了解。那我再擠一個問題。顯然近期波動很大,尤其是能源成本與通膨壓力,例如中東衝突等因素。我想請你們協助我們理解,你們認為這將如何影響你們的業務,不論是今年或更長期?謝謝。
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, very happy to. And you can imagine this is something we've been giving a lot of thought to and a lot of focus on. And really, when we're looking at the situation in the Middle East, we're looking at it through three lenses. So firstly, supply chain disruptions. Secondly, impact on consumer demand; and thirdly, cost inflation. And if I may, I'll deal with those three topics in order.
好的,很樂意回答。你可以想像,這是我們投入大量思考與關注的議題。當我們看待中東局勢時,我們主要從三個面向來評估:第一,供應鏈中斷;第二,對消費需求的影響;第三,成本通膨。如果可以的話,我會依序說明這三個主題。
So first of all, supply chain disruption. So on that, we've seen no impact on our business. Our products are produced locally and whilst our procurement is diverse geographically, none of it's been adversely affected by the Middle East situation at this point in time.
首先,供應鏈中斷。就這一點而言,我們尚未看到對我們業務有任何影響。我們的產品在當地生產,且雖然我們的採購在地理上相當多元,但截至目前為止,沒有任何部分因中東局勢而受到不利影響。
If you look at it from the lens of consumer demand, so we're watching the situation very closely, but we have not yet seen any evidence of consumer demand for our categories being impacted. In fact, as I said now, the growth has been rather greater than we were anticipating in both volume and in value growth.
如果從消費者需求的角度來看,我們正非常密切地關注情勢,但目前尚未看到任何證據顯示消費者對我們品類的需求受到影響。事實上,正如我剛才所說,無論在銷量或價值成長方面,成長幅度都比我們原先預期更大。
So this isn't a large area of concern for us going forward. Our categories deliver strongly on value for money, which has historically at least made us relatively insulated from economic volatility versus some other food companies.
因此,這並不是我們未來一個很大的關切領域。我們的品類在性價比方面表現強勁,至少從歷史上看,這使我們相較於其他一些食品公司,對經濟波動具有相對更強的抵禦能力。
So as you can imagine, the focus and our focus is on the third point, which is cost inflation. And as you know very well, the cost of fuel, the cost of fertilizers, the cost of resins have all moved higher and the situation is very fluid. But as of today, our direct and indirect exposure to these costs is manageable. And we've got good coverage through most of 2026.
因此,如你所想像,我們的重點——也是我們的重點——在第三點,也就是成本通膨。而你也很清楚,燃料成本、肥料成本、樹脂成本都已上升,且情勢非常多變。但截至今天,我們對這些成本的直接與間接曝險仍在可控範圍內。而且我們在大部分到 2026 年的期間都有良好的覆蓋。
As a result, our overall COGS inflation rate for this year has ticked up by less than 1% and remains within our mid-single-digit outlook. However, we do expect to see that incremental inflation will start to roll through our P&L in the fourth quarter and into fiscal 2027 if current conditions carry on.
因此,我們今年整體 COGS(銷貨成本)通膨率上升不到 1%,仍在我們中個位數成長的展望範圍內。不過,如果目前狀況持續,我們確實預期新增的通膨將在第四季開始反映到我們的損益表(P&L),並延續到 2027 財年。
However, as we're demonstrating this year, we have the ability to pull various price levers and various revenue growth management levers to manage commodity cost inflation. We've also got a very robust productivity pipeline that will further generate substantial cost savings next year. So as a result, as we look at it at this point in time, although it's very fluid, we see it as an eminently manageable situation for Nomad.
然而,正如我們今年所展現的,我們有能力運用各種價格槓桿以及各種營收成長管理槓桿,來管理大宗商品成本通膨。我們也有非常強健的生產力提升管線,明年將進一步帶來可觀的成本節省。因此,就目前這個時間點來看,雖然情勢非常多變,但我們認為對 Nomad 而言,這是完全可控、可管理的情況。
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Scott Marks - Equity Analyst
Understood. Appreciate the context. I'll pass it on.
了解。感謝提供背景。我會轉達。
Operator
Operator
John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.
John Baumgartner,瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)。
John Baumgartner - Analyst
John Baumgartner - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe, first off, thinking through the downside risks to 2026, I'm wondering if you can speak, maybe first off, the expectations for the [Adriatics] here in Q2, Q3, given maybe some of the more local economic disruptions in that area.
早安。謝謝讓我提問。也許首先,從 2026 年的下行風險來思考,我想請你談談,可能先從第二季、第三季對 [Adriatics] 的預期開始,考量到該地區一些較在地的經濟擾動。
And then B, thinking about the UK and Europe more broadly, I'm curious, Ruben, I think during past periods of economic dislocation, we've actually seen that benefit frozen food demand. And so I'm curious, with your pricing in place now, where you're seeing price gaps, how are you thinking, generally speaking, about the competitive environment this year? Do you anticipate other branded competitors probably able to raise prices, following you? Just broader thoughts on just consumer pricing here? Thank you.
然後第二點,從英國以及更廣泛的歐洲來看,我很好奇,Ruben,我想在過去一些經濟失序的時期,我們其實看到冷凍食品需求受惠。因此我想請教,在你們目前的定價已到位、你們看到的價差情況下,你們今年整體上如何看待競爭環境?你是否預期其他品牌競爭對手可能也能跟進你們調價?更廣泛地談談消費者端的定價情況?謝謝。
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ruben, do you want to do Adriatic and I'll do private label. Would that work?
Ruben,你要先回答 Adriatic 的部分,我來回答自有品牌(private label)。這樣可以嗎?
Ruben Baldew - Chief Financial Officer
Ruben Baldew - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, sure. So in Adriatic at this moment, we're not seeing macroeconomical or geopolitical issues hampering our business. The execution and results are fully in line with our plan. So that's, I think, one important point.
好,當然可以。就 Adriatic 而言,目前我們沒有看到宏觀經濟或地緣政治問題在妨礙我們的業務。執行與結果完全符合我們的計畫。所以我認為這是一個重要重點。
The second point is -- and it's also if you look at our full-year guidance and a bit to step up, we expect the step up in H2 in terms of profitability to come. And one of the elements is also in H2 and especially in quarter three, we expect a positive margin mix because last year, the summer was slightly disappointing.
第二點是——同時如果你看我們的全年指引以及接下來的提升幅度——我們預期下半年(H2)獲利能力會出現提升。而其中一個因素是,在下半年、尤其是第三季,我們預期會有正向的毛利組合(margin mix),因為去年夏季的表現略為令人失望。
Now we're not planning for an excellent summer, but all other things equal and normal, we do expect that Adriatics can deliver value for us in quarter three, thanks to an improved sell-out and sell-in of our out-of-home ice cream business.
現在我們並沒有把一個非常出色的夏季納入規劃,但在其他條件相同且情況正常的前提下,我們確實預期 Adriatics 在第三季能為我們帶來價值,這要歸功於我們外食通路(out-of-home)的冰淇淋業務在終端銷售(sell-out)與出貨(sell-in)方面的改善。
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And then if we look at your point on private label, so of course, it's early days and a lot of our price increases have only just hit shelves or just beginning to hit shelves. So in certain markets, we've begun to see private label move already. In others, we're still waiting to see what happens. But we've embedded the risk of delays in our guidance.
接著談你提到的自有品牌部分,當然,現在還算早期,而且我們許多漲價措施才剛上架,或正開始上架。因此在某些市場,我們已經開始看到自有品牌有所動作;在其他市場,我們仍在觀察後續會如何發展。不過,我們已在指引中納入了延遲的風險。
And the likelihood is actually when you look at it in real depth is that the private label players are experiencing as much as, if not more, cost inflation than we are. So, for example, in fish, many private label producers source double frozen fish from China, and the cost of that has risen far more than it has for other sources of fish. So we do tend to believe it's a question of when and not if they will raise prices. So that's roughly how we're seeing things.
而且,若深入來看,實際上自有品牌業者所面臨的成本通膨,與我們一樣多,甚至可能更高。舉例來說,在魚類方面,許多自有品牌生產商從中國採購「雙重冷凍」魚(double frozen fish),其成本上升幅度遠高於其他魚源。因此我們傾向認為,問題在於他們何時、而不是是否會調高價格。大致上我們是這樣看待的。
John Baumgartner - Analyst
John Baumgartner - Analyst
Okay. And then I'm curious, Dominic, as you dig deeper into the business, and I know you're making changes to marketing, and there's been some discussion as well about improving joint business plans and some of the point-of -ale engagement, I'm curious how retailers look at this category, frozen food right now, because I feel that some of the retailers, they focus more on the fresh business.
好的。接著我也好奇,Dominic,當你更深入了解這門業務時,我知道你正在調整行銷,也有一些討論是關於改善聯合商業計畫(joint business plans)以及一些銷售點(point-of-sale)互動。我想了解零售商目前如何看待冷凍食品這個品類,因為我覺得有些零售商更聚焦在生鮮業務。
When you think about frozen and the engagement, to what extent are you seeing, I guess, the balance of benefits for you being multi-category exposure relative to certain categories that stand out where you can drill deeper? I guess how are you thinking about those joint business plans with retailers from here?
當你思考冷凍品類與互動投入時,你在多品類布局所帶來的好處,與相較之下某些特別突出的品類、你可以更深入經營的部分之間,你看到的效益平衡到什麼程度?也就是說,從現在開始,你如何看待與零售商的那些聯合商業計畫?
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So it's still fairly early days. But in all the discussions that I've been having with retailers and that the team have been having with retailers, we're seeing a great first from them to work closer with us as the clear undisputed leader in frozen food in Europe. To work with them how to grow the category, not how to grow the category more, I mean, 3.8% category growth in the quarter is pretty impressive in itself.
目前仍算相當早期。但在我與零售商的所有討論,以及團隊與零售商的討論中,我們看到他們非常願意與我們更緊密合作,因為我們是歐洲冷凍食品領域清楚且無可爭議的領導者。與他們一起思考如何成長這個品類,而不是「如何讓品類成長更多」——我的意思是,本季品類成長 3.8% 本身就已相當亮眼。
But one of the things that came across with Nomads historically was that the relations sometimes with retailers had been a little transactional, whereas what we really need to do is to work out with the retailers how to grow the business and how to grow the category with them. And interestingly, you'll have seen we've made certain new appointments and we've consciously chosen people who are very good at that and who have a clear record of doing that.
但過去 Nomad 給人的其中一個印象是,我們與零售商的關係有時比較偏交易型(transactional);然而我們真正需要做的是,與零售商一起釐清如何成長業務、以及如何與他們一起成長品類。有趣的是,你也看到我們做了一些新的人事任命,而我們是有意識地選擇那些非常擅長這件事、且在這方面有明確實績的人。
So, for example, in the UK and of course the UK, as you know, it's by far our biggest individual market. So the person we've put in as President of the UK, who's reporting directly to me, someone called Simon Ball, has spent pretty much his whole life in food in the UK, but on both the manufacturer side and the retailer side. So he has a much deeper understanding of how retailers think, what they want and how they operate versus what many people in that position would have.
所以,舉例來說,在英國——當然英國如你所知,是我們迄今為止最大的單一市場。因此,我們任命的英國總裁直接向我匯報,名叫 Simon Ball。他幾乎一輩子都在英國食品產業工作,且同時在製造商端與零售端都有經驗。因此,相較於許多擔任該職位的人,他對零售商如何思考、他們想要什麼以及他們如何運作,有更深入的理解。
So we're seeing great desire from retailers to work with us. I think a certain sense of positivity that we're very keen to work with them. And so the early indications are positive. And it's worth saying, even without this, even without the full force of the Nomad muscle and the Nomad intellect, which we're bringing in, the category is still growing by itself. So the retailers are pretty exciting.
因此我們看到零售商非常渴望與我們合作。我認為有一種正向的氛圍,我們也非常希望與他們合作。所以早期跡象是正面的。也值得一提的是,即便沒有這些,即便沒有我們正在導入的 Nomad 的全部力量與 Nomad 的智慧,這個品類本身仍在成長。因此,零售商端的情況相當令人振奮。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Jon Tanwanteng, CJS Securities.
(接線員指示)Jon Tanwanteng,CJS Securities。
Jonathan Tanwanteng - Analyst
Jonathan Tanwanteng - Analyst
Thank you for taking my questions, guys, and nice job on the quarter. I was wondering if you could talk about trends in Q2 so far, what you're seeing from a consumer's perspective. And then on top of that, when would you expect your sell-in to start to track the sell-out and how that progresses through the year? Thank you.
謝謝你們回答我的問題,各位,本季表現也做得很好。我想請教一下到目前為止第二季的趨勢,從消費者角度你們看到了什麼?另外,你們預期何時你們的 sell-in 會開始跟上 sell-out,以及這在今年內會如何推進?謝謝。
Ruben Baldew - Chief Financial Officer
Ruben Baldew - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, so maybe let me answer that. And maybe just first macro, and it links to what Dominic just said on trends in the consumer. We see a category which is healthy year to date, 3.8% growth, also growth in volume, plus 1.5%, so that is strong. Clearly, as Dominic said, we're monitoring the situation in terms of potential uncertainty on inflation, on what is happening geopolitically. But at this moment, we don't have any data suggesting that the consumer would trade down or would lead to a decrease in the category in itself. So that's one point.
好的,那也許我來回答。先從總體面談起,這也呼應 Dominic 剛才提到的消費者趨勢。我們看到這個品類今年迄今表現健康,成長 3.8%,銷量也成長,+1.5%,因此相當強勁。當然,如 Dominic 所說,我們正在監測通膨可能帶來的不確定性,以及地緣政治正在發生的事情。但就目前而言,我們沒有任何數據顯示消費者會降級消費,或導致品類本身下滑。這是第一點。
And if you zoom in a bit more specifically at our numbers, both sell-in and sell-out, as Dominic said, we have executed and implemented the price increase in line with our plan and in line with guidance. But as is normal in certain regions, we did see disruption. And that disruption will flow into quarter two, specifically in the month of April.
如果更聚焦到我們的數字,包含 sell-in 與 sell-out,如 Dominic 所說,我們已依照計畫並符合指引執行與落實漲價。但如同某些地區的常態,我們確實看到一些擾動,而這些擾動會延續到第二季,特別是在 4 月。
Now the good thing is we have now closed our negotiations. So from May, we now see the shipments fully back on. But that will weigh on the quarter for itself, that could be a couple of basis points. That's one. With minor overall, we see a bit of shipments in East, but it's not that big, could be a half percent. So those are a bit of trends for us specifically.
好消息是我們現在已完成談判。因此從 5 月起,我們看到出貨已全面恢復。但這會對本季造成壓力,可能是幾個基點。這是一點。另外,整體來看,我們在東部地區看到一些出貨變動,但幅度不大,可能約 0.5%。以上是一些更屬於我們自身的趨勢。
And then the other big point, which we already said for the full year and also reflected in our guidance, we see generic inflation. And as Dominic said, specifically, for example, in fish, we see quite a bit of inflation. So it's not a matter if private label will follow but when. However, what we've seen in the past, there's often a bit of a time lag.
接著另一個重點,我們在全年已提過、也反映在指引中:我們看到普遍性通膨。而如 Dominic 所說,特別是例如魚類,我們看到相當程度的通膨。因此問題不是自有品牌(private label)會不會跟進,而是何時跟進。不過,我們過去看到的情況是,通常會有一些時間落差。
Now our products will now -- with the price increase, the consumer prices will go up. That's clearly at the discretion of the retailer. We expect private label to follow, but there will be some time lag, and that elasticity impact will weigh in quarter two.
現在,隨著我們的漲價,我們的產品——消費者端價格將上升。這顯然取決於零售商的決定。我們預期自有品牌會跟進,但會有一些時間落差,而這種價格彈性(elasticity)的影響會在第二季形成壓力。
Jonathan Tanwanteng - Analyst
Jonathan Tanwanteng - Analyst
Got it. And I have a follow-up, if I could. I was wondering if you could talk maybe a little bit more about the risk in your supply chain from inflation and financial pressure. I understand that you secure a lot of your costs ahead of time, but I'm just wondering if you thought about yields or material financial constraints and how those might flow through and if there's a risk to your ability to secure supply even if you have contracts in place.
了解。如果可以的話我有個追問。我想請你們多談一點通膨與財務壓力對你們供應鏈的風險。我理解你們會提前鎖定很多成本,但我想知道你們是否考量過產出率(yields)或原物料的財務限制,以及這些可能如何傳導;以及即使你們已有合約在手,是否仍存在影響你們確保供應能力的風險。
Ruben Baldew - Chief Financial Officer
Ruben Baldew - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, so look, we've looked clearly in depth at our contracts and which contracts have the ability to reopen. I think in our business, and you have to understand a lot of our commodity spend is linked to agricultural, livestock, fish, which is much more linked to season than really linked to input costs. So we see a bit less of exposure there.
是的,你看,我們已深入檢視我們的合約,以及哪些合約具備重新開啟談判的可能。我認為在我們的業務中,你必須理解我們大量的大宗商品支出與農業、畜牧、魚類相關,而這些更與季節性連動,而不是真的與投入成本連動。因此我們在那方面的曝險相對較小。
I think the big point where not only us, but more companies are looking at, okay, what could be the indirect impact of this? And that again, as Dominic said, is not a big impact for '26 but how could this flow into '27 with the cost of fertilizers, with the cost of petrol and fuel, with potential impact of labor inflation and how that will go into the cost price of our products into '27.
我認為更大的重點是,不只是我們,更多公司都在看:好,這可能帶來的間接影響是什麼?而這同樣如 Dominic 所說,對 2026 年影響不大,但這可能如何延伸到 2027 年——例如肥料成本、汽油與燃料成本、以及勞動通膨可能帶來的影響,這些將如何在 2027 年反映到我們產品的成本價格中。
And we're monitoring that, but I think it's just too early and too [fluid] to give an element of numbers there. We do expect it to be elevated versus what we're seeing in 2026.
我們正在監測,但我認為現在要給出數字還太早,而且情勢太過[變動]。我們確實預期相較於 2026 年所見,屆時會處於較高水準。
Jason English - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy
Jason English - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy
Ryan, we think we lost you.
Ryan,我們想我們好像聽不到你了。
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
You still there?
你還在嗎?
Operator
Operator
Am I audible, sir?
先生,我聽得到嗎?
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, no, yes.
有,沒有,是的。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to Dominic Brisby for his closing comments.
(接線員指示)由於與會者沒有進一步提問,我現在把會議交給 Dominic Brisby 作結語。
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dominic Brisby - Executive President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you all for joining us today and your interest in Nomad Foods. I look forward to speaking with many of you in the days and weeks ahead and then seeing many of you at our Analyst Day this fall. Thank you.
感謝各位今天加入我們,並對 Nomad Foods 的關注。我期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內與各位中的許多人交流,並在今年秋天的分析師日與各位中的許多人見面。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference of Nomad Foods has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝。各位女士、先生,Nomad Foods 的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛斷電話線。