Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NOG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the NOG's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 NOG 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Infurna, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Evelyn Infurna。你可以開始了。

Good morning. Welcome to NOG's third-quarter earnings conference call.

早安.歡迎參加 NOG 第三季財報電話會議。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we released our financial results for the third quarter. You can access our earnings release and presentation on our investor relations website at noginc.com. We expect that our 10-Q will be filed in the next two days.

昨天收盤後，我們發布了第三季的財務表現。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 noginc.com 上存取我們的收益發布和簡報。我們預計 10-Q 將在接下來的兩天內提交。

I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer, Nick O'Grady; our President, Adam Dirlam; our Chief Financial Officer, Chad Allen; and our Chief Technical Officer, Jim Evans. Our agenda for today's call is as follows. Nick will provide remarks on the quarter and our recent accomplishments. Then, Adam will give you an overview of operations and business development activities, and Chad will review our financial results. After our prepared remarks, the team will be available to answer any questions.

今天早上我們的執行長尼克·奧格雷迪也加入了我的行列。我們的總統亞當·迪拉姆；我們的財務長查德·艾倫；以及我們的技術長 Jim Evans。我們今天的電話會議議程如下。尼克將就本季和我們最近的成就發表評論。然後，亞當將向您概述營運和業務發展活動，查德將審查我們的財務表現。在我們準備好發言後，團隊將可以回答任何問題。

Before we begin, let me cover our safe harbor language. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Those risks include, among others, matters that have been described in our earnings release as well as in our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，讓我先介紹一下我們的安全港語言。請注意，我們今天的言論，包括對您問題的回答，可能包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與我們前瞻性陳述所設想的預期有重大差異。這些風險包括我們的收益發布以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的事項，包括我們的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

During today's call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨利潤和自由現金流。這些指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的調整可以在我們的收益報告中找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Nick.

這樣，我就把電話轉給尼克。

Thank you, Evelyn. Welcome, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in our company. As usual, I'll cover the highlights of the quarter with six key points.

謝謝你，伊芙琳。歡迎大家，早安，感謝您對我們公司的興趣。像往常一樣，我將透過六個要點來介紹本季的亮點。

Number one, fruits of our labor -- we've asked a lot from our investors over the past year as we went through a heavy investment cycle. The third-quarter highlights the fruits of that labor -- three straight quarters of declining CapEx, fewer wells turned on and yet we've delivered growing oil volumes and activity is still spooling with a growing D&C list.

第一，我們的勞動成果——在過去的一年裡，當我們經歷了一個沉重的投資週期時，我們向投資者提出了許多要求。第三季凸顯了我們的勞動成果——資本支出連續三個季度下降，開工的油井減少，但我們交付的石油量不斷增長，而且隨著 D&C 清單的不斷增加，活動仍在繼續。

Even in a quarter of weaker oil and gas prices, we generated record free cash flow, near record adjusted EBITDA and drove volume growth in our two biggest contributing basins, the Permian and the Williston. As we noted last year, free cash flow would come with patience, and we're delivering on that promise. And the upfront investment and pull forward of activity has shown its benefits as has strong well performance.

即使在石油和天然氣價格疲軟的一個季度，我們也創造了創紀錄的自由現金流，接近創紀錄的調整後EBITDA，並推動了我們兩個最大貢獻盆地（二疊紀和威利斯頓）的銷量增長。正如我們去年指出的，自由現金流需要耐心，我們正在兌現這項承諾。前期投資和活動的推進已經顯示出其好處以及良好的油井表現。

The temptation for investors to focus on our capital spending in 92-day increments and draw conclusions was understandable, but often belies the longer-term benefits of those investments. This quarter's results clearly reflect that as our capital efficiency shines through and proves the points we made then.

投資者關注 92 天增量資本支出並得出結論的誘惑是可以理解的，但往往掩蓋了這些投資的長期收益。本季的業績清楚地反映出我們的資本效率表現出色並證明了我們當時提出的觀點。

Number two, balance sheet power -- this is in reference to the all-cash nature of our recent acquisitions, which had many investors questioning if we would issue equity or even some suggesting we were going to be challenged moving forward from a balance sheet perspective versus the clear power of our businesses' cash generation. We closed Point at the very end of the third quarter, and as a result, received little to no benefit from a cash flow perspective, and yet our net leverage ratio and net debt levels were almost unchanged quarter over quarter.

第二，資產負債表的力量——這是指我們最近收購的全現金性質，這讓許多投資者質疑我們是否會發行股票，甚至有些人暗示我們從資產負債表的角度來看將面臨前進的挑戰與我們企業現金產生的明顯力量相比。我們在第三季末關閉了 Point，因此從現金流的角度來看，幾乎沒有獲得任何好處，但我們的淨槓桿率和淨債務水準幾乎環比不變。

While the larger XCL transaction that closed at the beginning of Q4 will have a modest impact on our borrowings in the near term, we maintain a number of different options and could quickly term out the debt at any point in time. As we close on both properties and add them to our cash flow streams, we expect to steadily and organically delever over the next year or so and stay well within our stated leverage targets even as prices have moderated.

雖然第四季初完成的規模較大的 XCL 交易將對我們的短期借款產生適度影響，但我們保留了許多不同的選擇，並且可以在任何時間點快速償還債務。當我們關閉這兩個房產並將其添加到我們的現金流中時，我們預計將在未來一年左右穩步、有機地去槓桿化，並在價格放緩的情況下保持在我們既定的槓桿目標範圍內。

Number three, growth -- many of you will likely ask about our 2025 plans, and I will say now that we're busy running multiple scenarios and our planning group is hard at work. Much of the outcome, as always, is return-driven first. So we will evaluate our spending path based on the commodity environment we're in. The counteracting force is that our ground game opportunities tend to increase in weaker pricing periods. So as we plan, we will have to make room for both outcomes.

第三，成長——你們中的許多人可能會問我們的 2025 年計劃，我現在要說的是，我們正忙於運行多個場景，我們的規劃團隊正在努力工作。一如既往，大部分成果首先是回報驅動的。因此，我們將根據我們所處的商品環境來評估我們的支出路徑。反作用力是，我們的地面遊戲機會往往在定價疲軟時期增加。因此，在我們計劃時，我們必須為這兩種結果留出空間。

Suffice it to say, while we aren't there yet, we will prepare low price, high price and steady price scenarios for the Board's review as we exit the year. Each scenario will likely have differing balances of organic and Ground Game capital, which will help us determine the appropriate level of capital to budget for the coming year. It's important to distinguish the difference between our overall spending target, which Chad will talk about, and the number of wells we may plan to put to sales, which will be driven by returns.

我只想說，雖然我們還沒有做到這一點，但我們將在今年結束時為董事會審查準備低價、高價和穩定價格方案。每種情況可能會有不同的有機資本和地面遊戲資本平衡，這將幫助我們確定來年預算的適當資本水準。重要的是要區分我們的總體支出目標（乍得將討論的目標）與我們可能計劃銷售的油井數量（這將由回報驅動）之間的差異。

The TIL count will ultimately drive our production guidance, but the total spending will drive our D&C list in our Ground Game and thus our longer-term growth profile, and those are the decisions we are hard at work on today. We remain busy evaluating opportunities of every kind from large-scale acquisitions to drilling partnerships to buydown structures and co-purchases. We see many avenues of growth and remain focused on prospects to take NOG to the next level. But as always, the bar is high and any of the assets we're evaluating must continue to make for a better and stronger pro forma company.

TIL 數量最終將推動我們的生產指導，但總支出將推動我們地面遊戲中的 D&C 清單，從而推動我們的長期成長概況，這些是我們今天正在努力做出的決定。我們仍然忙於評估各種機會，從大規模收購到鑽探合作關係，再到收購結構和共同購買。我們看到了許多成長途徑，並繼續關注將 NOG 提升到新水平的前景。但一如既往，門檻很高，我們正在評估的任何資產都必須繼續為一家更好、更強大的備考公司做出貢獻。

We have had great success of late, as Adam will discuss, with on-the-ground leasing, a slight pivot from the more development heavy Ground Game in the past. We always try to skate to where the puck is going. As I mentioned on prior calls, we have historically found that our competitiveness in our Ground Game is often inversely correlated to the strength in oil or natural gas prices.

我們最近取得了巨大的成功，正如亞當將討論的那樣，透過實地租賃，我們從過去更注重開發的地面遊戲中得到了輕微的轉變。我們總是嘗試滑向冰球要去的地方。正如我在先前的電話會議中提到的，我們從歷史上發現，我們在地面遊戲中的競爭力往往與石油或天然氣價格的強勢呈負相關。

So importantly, we do believe many opportunities may arise in the event that commodity markets continue to weaken. And importantly, we've also taken notice that duration of capital is important and our ability, given our long inventory runway and strong balance sheet to house longer duration, potentially better, longer-term ROI assets has increasingly become a bigger advantage versus those who need instant gratification with shorter duration capital or companies with short-term development needs; more on that later.

重要的是，我們確實相信，如果大宗商品市場繼續走弱，可能會出現許多機會。重要的是，我們還注意到，資本的持續時間很重要，考慮到我們的長庫存跑道和強大的資產負債表，我們有能力容納更長的持續時間、可能更好、更長期的投資回報率資產，與那些需要即時滿足短期資本或有短期發展需求的公司；稍後會詳細介紹。

Number four, costs -- we entered 2024 with a plan to heavily invest in our people and systems at NOG to help support the incredible growth we've accomplished over the past several years and also to prepare NOG for the next stage of growth. We wanted to ensure we could harness every advantage afforded to us from our data and our asset base as we continue to build our business over time.

第四，成本——進入2024 年，我們計劃對NOG 的人員和系統進行大量投資，以幫助支持我們在過去幾年中實現的令人難以置信的增長，並為NOG 的下一階段增長做好準備。我們希望確保在我們繼續發展業務的過程中，能夠利用我們的數據和資產基礎所提供的一切優勢。

You will note, however, that even as we add employees, our adjusted cash G&A cost per barrel should continue to drop over time. This is a testament to the conscious and purposeful effort we have embraced in striving for continuous improvement or kaizen. As we have added talented individuals to the NOG team, we are also reducing our outside services costs meaningfully. It's one of our top priorities in terms of internal focuses, and we believe it will be under an almost evergreen cycle of improvement over the life of the company.

然而，您會注意到，即使我們增加員工，調整後的每桶現金管理費用也應隨著時間的推移而繼續下降。這證明了我們在努力持續改進或改善方面所做的有意識和有目的的努力。隨著我們為 NOG 團隊增加人才，我們也大幅降低了外部服務成本。這是我們內部關注的首要任務之一，我們相信它將在公司的生命週期中處於幾乎常綠的改進循環中。

You will also notice our well costs were down considerably quarter over quarter. Some of this is happenstance and on a per lateral foot basis, it is less dramatic, but we did see a notable reduction in Williston normalized costs. Furthermore, with commodity prices under pressure, it suggests that pressure pumpers can only staff their equipment and hold price for so long before they need continuity of service.

您還會注意到，我們的油井成本比去年同期大幅下降。其中一些是偶然的，並且在每側腳的基礎上，它不那麼引人注目，但我們確實看到威利斯頓標準化成本顯著下降。此外，由於大宗商品價格面臨壓力，這表明壓力泵只能在需要連續服務之前配備設備並保持價格一段時間。

While investors will focus almost entirely on the price of commodities in the short term, there are savings to be found in development costs, and we believe there is potential in 2025 to recapture margin if current trends continue. The weak commodity price environment may also impact other items besides development costs like lifting costs should the current outlook weaken further.

雖然短期內投資者幾乎完全專注於大宗商品價格，但開發成本可以節省，我們相信，如果目前的趨勢持續下去，到 2025 年有可能重新獲得利潤。如果當前前景進一步走弱，疲軟的大宗商品價格環境也可能影響開發成本以外的其他項目，例如提升成本。

Number five, shareholder returns -- as we execute on our acquisition strategy, we have always said that we would be mindful of the balance sheet without excluding the potential for capitalizing on opportunities to retire shares when market conditions allow. We found those opportunities in the third quarter with a repurchase of just under 400,000 shares. In fact, we're proud to have delivered over $230 million of returns comprised of share repurchases and dividends to our shareholders year to date.

第五，股東回報－當我們執行收購策略時，我們一直表示，我們會留意資產負債表，但不排除在市場條件允許時利用退役股票機會的潛力。我們在第三季發現了這些機會，回購了近 40 萬股股票。事實上，我們很自豪今年迄今已為股東帶來了超過 2.3 億美元的回報，包括股票回購和股息。

It's also worth noting that through the first nine months of the year, we returned approximately 50% of our free cash flow to our investors. As we previously disclosed, while we bumped the dividend early this quarter, the Board will still meet in early 2025 to determine the annual dividend policy. Dividend growth is particularly important to our company as it is a testament to the fundamental underlying mission of growing per share profits and then giving our investors a growing portion of those profits over time.

另外值得注意的是，今年前 9 個月，我們將大約 50% 的自由現金流回饋給了投資者。正如我們之前所揭露的，雖然我們在本季度初提高了股息，但董事會仍將在 2025 年初召開會議，以確定年度股息政策。股息成長對我們公司尤其重要，因為它證明了我們的基本使命：增加每股利潤，然後隨著時間的推移向我們的投資者提供越來越多的利潤。

Number six, outlook -- we've now closed on both XCL and Point, and I want to thank both the SM and Vital teams for trusting us as their partners. While it may seem like these joint ventures can happen easily and often, there are plenty of challenges in successfully orchestrating a co-purchase. It has taken the right partners, some luck and a ton of hard work to get these transactions completed. With these assets in-house, we see the potential for significant development in the near and long term.

第六，展望——我們現在已經關閉了 XCL 和 Point，我要感謝 SM 和 Vital 團隊信任我們作為他們的合作夥伴。雖然這些合資企業似乎很容易發生，而且經常發生，但成功策劃共同購買仍面臨許多挑戰。這些交易需要合適的合作夥伴、一些運氣和大量的努力才能完成。憑藉這些內部資產，我們看到了近期和長期的重大發展潛力。

More importantly, in keeping with our strategy, these JVs are built to weather the storm should we see any wobbles in the price environment. It goes without saying that oil prices have been volatile. While many companies swore off hedging during the run-up in 2022, we have maintained our hedging discipline. If oil prices do continue to weaken this year, we are confident that our balance sheet and debt ratios will remain protected as compared to others that may have sworn off hedging and exposed their balance sheet to potential weakness.

更重要的是，根據我們的策略，這些合資企業的建立是為了在價格環境出現任何波動時抵禦風暴。不言而喻，石油價格一直波動不定。儘管許多公司在 2022 年的準備階段放棄了對沖，但我們仍然保持了對沖紀律。如果今年油價確實繼續走軟，我們相信，與其他可能放棄對沖並使資產負債表面臨潛在疲軟風險的公司相比，我們的資產負債表和債務比率將繼續受到保護。

We hedge to protect the capital we deploy on both drilling and acquisitions. In doing so, we ensure solid returns on capital for our investors and the ability to countercyclically invest if commodity prices get dicey. We head into the fourth quarter well prepared for any environment. We're very well insulated with a ramping D&C list and with the best asset base in our company's history, highly diversified, covering nearly 100 operators in six distinct operating areas.

我們進行對沖以保護我們部署在鑽探和收購方面的資本。在此過程中，我們確保投資者獲得穩定的資本回報，並在大宗商品價格出現波動時能夠進行反週期投資。我們為進入第四季度做好了應對任何環境的準備。我們與不斷增加的 D&C 名單保持良好隔離，並擁有公司歷史上最好的資產基礎，高度多元化，涵蓋六個不同營運區域的近 100 家營運商。

That concludes my prepared remarks. So I'll close out, as I always do, by thanking the NOG engineering, land, BD, finance, and planning teams and everyone else on Board, our investors, and covering analysts for listening and our operators and partners for all the hard work they do in the field. As always, our team is focused on delivering optimal total return and growing our per share profits for the long term. That's because we're a company run by investors for investors.

我準備好的發言就到此結束。最後，我將像往常一樣，感謝 NOG 工程、土地、BD、財務和規劃團隊以及船上的其他所有人、我們的投資者和分析師的傾聽，以及我們的運營商和合作夥伴的所有努力。在該領域所做的工作。一如既往，我們的團隊致力於提供最佳的總回報並長期增加每股利潤。那是因為我們是一家由投資者為投資者經營的公司。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Adam.

有了這個，我會把它交給亞當。

Thank you, Nick. I will begin with our operational highlights and then turn to our business development efforts and the current M&A landscape.

謝謝你，尼克。我將從我們的營運亮點開始，然後轉向我們的業務發展努力和當前的併購情況。

During the third quarter, production remained resilient at over 121,000 BOE per day despite a nearly 70% sequential reduction in TILs from Q2 as certain operators deferred completions. The wells that were added in late Q2, along with the completions in the third quarter showed better-than-expected results. Reversing the trend in Permian weighted completions, the Williston accounted for more than two-thirds of the activity during Q3 and is a testament to NOG's core Williston position.

第三季度，儘管由於某些業者推遲竣工，TIL 較第二季度環比下降了近 70%，但產量仍保持彈性，每天產量超過 121,000 桶油當量。第二季末新增的油井以及第三季的完井業績都優於預期。威利斯頓油田扭轉了二疊紀加權完井量的趨勢，佔第三季活動的三分之二以上，證明了 NOG 在威利斯頓油田的核心地位。

While the TIL count was relatively subdued in the quarter compared to our Q2 highs for the year, drilling activity levels have ramped, setting the table for a robust fourth quarter and moving into the new year. We added over 20 net wells to the D&C list during the third quarter as accelerated activity pulled forward almost 10 net wells relative to internal forecast.

儘管與今年第二季度的高點相比，本季的 TIL 數量相對較少，但鑽井活動水平有所上升，為第四季度的強勁表現和進入新的一年奠定了基礎。第三季度，我們在 D&C 清單中增加了 20 多口淨井，因為活動加速，相對於內部預測提前了近 10 口淨井。

We have also seen our average working interest in the Permian increased from 10% in Q2 to 17% at the end of the quarter, driven by an acceleration of development with our JV partners. Activity on our organic acreage also remains elevated as we reviewed almost 200 well proposals during the third quarter.

我們還發現，在與合資夥伴加速開發的推動下，我們在二疊紀盆地的平均工作權益從第二季的 10% 增加到季末的 17%。我們在第三季審查了近 200 個油井提案，因此我們的有機區塊活動也保持在較高水準。

Consent rates on well proposals held above 90%, both on a gross and net basis as economics remain strong. Notably, we have seen forecasted well costs show moderate signs of deflation as absolute and normalized costs in the Permian declined for the third quarter and the Williston declined to the lowest cost per lateral foot on the year.

由於經濟狀況依​​然強勁，無論是總量或淨值，油井提案的同意率都維持在 90% 以上。值得注意的是，我們看到預測的油井成本顯示出適度的通貨緊縮跡象，因為二疊紀盆地的絕對成本和正常化成本在第三季度下降，而威利斯頓盆地的每側英尺成本則降至今年最低。

In addition, discussions with our operating partners indicate encouraging trends in operational efficiencies and improvements in spud to sales timelines. These trends could position us to potentially deliver wells at costs below our AFE expectations and provide incremental capital efficiencies.

此外，與我們的營運合作夥伴的討論表明，營運效率和銷售時間表改進方面出現了令人鼓舞的趨勢。這些趨勢可能使我們能夠以低於 AFE 預期的成本交付油井，並提高資本效率。

Looking ahead, we expect a ramp in activity to finish the year as we clear through the DUC backlog, setting up for a strong start to 2025. While we're not providing official guidance at this point, we expect 2025 TILs to see a 40-60 weighting relative to the front and back half of the year.

展望未來，隨著我們清理 DUC 積壓訂單，我們預計今年年底活動將有所增加，為 2025 年的強勁開局做好準備。雖然我們目前尚未提供官方指導，但我們預計 2025 年 TIL 相對於今年上半年和下半年的權重將是 40-60。

Drilling activity will be commodity price dependent. However, we see a measured cadence of activity throughout the year, taking into account the seasonal pauses that we see in the Williston during the winter months. As such, we expect to see the D&C list build through the first half and then draw down a bit in the second half of the year.

鑽探活動將取決於商品價格。然而，考慮到威利斯頓冬季月份的季節性停頓，我們看到全年的活動節奏都有規律。因此，我們預計 D&C 清單將在上半年不斷增加，然後在下半年縮減。

We expect the 2025 capital program to be allocated roughly 60% to the Permian, 30% to the Williston, 9% to the Uinta, and 1% to the Appalachian. We are encouraged by the Uinta Basin's early performance as evidenced by the impressive test rates from our Douglas Creek wells in the upper cube, along with additional efficiencies as SM takes over operatorship.

我們預計 2025 年的資本計畫將約 60% 分配給二疊紀盆地，30% 分配給威利斯頓盆地，9% 分配給尤因塔盆地，1% 分配給阿巴拉契亞盆地。我們對 Uinta 盆地的早期表現感到鼓舞，上立方體的 Douglas Creek 井令人印象深刻的測試率以及 SM 接管運營後的額外效率證明了這一點。

Our concentrated acreage position will enable us to extend laterals while the start-up of our sand mine will save hundreds of thousands per well. Couple this with the project's capital efficiencies via completion design and all of this underscores our strategy of partnering with high-quality operators on high-quality assets. Despite changes to near-term completions through the transition period, corporate-wide production for the year should not be impacted given our diversified asset base.

我們集中的面積位置將使我們能夠擴展支線，而我們的沙礦的啟動將為每口井節省數十萬美元。再加上透過完井設計實現的專案資本效率，所有這些都強調了我們與優質營運商合作開發優質資產的策略。儘管過渡期內的近期完工量發生了變化，但考慮到我們多元化的資產基礎，今年全公司的生產不應受到影響。

Moving to our M&A efforts, the third quarter showcased our ability to replace inventory through our Ground Game as well as continue to consolidate top-tier assets through larger M&A. During the quarter, we aggregated an additional 1,250 net acres through our Ground Game, bringing us to over 4,700 net acres and 6.8 net wells on the year. To date, the focus has generally been in the Permian, but we have also been able to find meaningful opportunities in Appalachia as well as the Williston.

轉向我們的併購工作，第三季展示了我們透過地面遊戲替換庫存以及透過更大規模的併購繼續整合頂級資產的能力。本季度，我們透過地面遊戲增加了 1,250 英畝淨面積，全年淨面積超過 4,700 英畝，淨井數量超過 6.8 口。到目前為止，重點通常集中在二疊紀，但我們也能夠在阿巴拉契亞和威利斯頓找到有意義的機會。

Now Uinta will add one more avenue for us to bolt-on additional interest through our Ground Game as more opportunities flow in. As we have diversified across multiple basins, we're getting significantly more shots on goal, and that has improved our ability to deploy capital to only the areas, assets and operators that meet our strict hurdle rates for capital allocation. As certain asset classes or basins see waves of competition, we can pivot to other opportunities to replace inventory and maintain our elevated return on capital metrics. Additionally, with the various AMIs that we have in place, we are also leveraging our operators' business development efforts to pick up additional acreage and wellbore interest.

現在，隨著更多機會的湧入，Uinta 將為我們增加一種途徑，透過我們的地面遊戲增加額外的興趣。隨著我們在多個盆地實現多元化，我們實現目標的機會顯著增加，這提高了我們將資本部署到符合我們嚴格的資本配置門檻的地區、資產和營運商的能力。隨著某些資產類別或盆地出現競爭浪潮，我們可以轉向其他機會來替換庫存並維持較高的資本回報率指標。此外，透過我們現有的各種 AMI，我們也利用營運商的業務開發努力來獲得更多面積和井眼權益。

Looking at the fourth quarter and with commodity prices pulling back, we will remain opportunistic. With budgetary constraints from both our operators and our competition, we typically see more actionable opportunities in the fourth quarter than any other during the year, and we'll focus on a countercyclical approach.

展望第四季度，隨著大宗商品價格回落，我們仍將保持機會主義態度。由於我們的營運商和競爭對手的預算限制，我們通常會在第四季度看到比一年中任何其他季度更多的可操作機會，我們將專注於反週期方法。

As I alluded to earlier, the third quarter was very busy closing both the Point and XCL transactions. With both deals now behind us, we're continuing to canvas other high-quality M&A opportunities that will enable us to build not only a bigger NOG, but also a better one. The focus remains on low breakeven, resilient assets that will generate returns even in a marginal commodity price environment. The execution of our actively managed business model, our scale, balance sheet and the ability to creatively structure acquisitions has afforded us more opportunities than most.

正如我之前提到的，第三季非常忙於完成 Point 和 XCL 交易。現在這兩筆交易都已完成，我們將繼續尋找其他高品質的併購機會，這將使我們不僅能夠建立一個更大的 NOG，而且能夠建立一個更好的 NOG。重點仍是低損益平衡、有彈性的資產，即使在邊際商品價格環境下也能產生回報。我們積極管理的業務模式的執行、我們的規模、資產負債表以及創造性地建立收購的能力為我們提供了比大多數公司更多的機會。

We remain active evaluating more than $6 billion in assets across all our respective basins. Structures ranging from joint development agreements, co-purchases, minority interest buydowns and the typical non-op package are all in play. Many of the active processes are in the broader market that as we have conversations with our operators and discuss options at a structural level, we are unearthing more and more off-market opportunities specific to NOG that would not otherwise be a fit for our competition.

我們仍然積極評估各個流域超過 60 億美元的資產。聯合開發協議、共同購買、少數股權收購和典型的非經營性一攬子計劃等結構都在發揮作用。許多活躍的流程都在更廣闊的市場中，當我們與營運商進行對話並在結構層面上討論選項時，我們正在挖掘越來越多特定於NOG 的場外機會，否則這些機會不適合我們的競爭。

Post-consolidation divestitures from larger operators are starting to percolate as well, albeit with a mix in quality, and we expect that theme to continue into 2025 as operators review their various options and debt reduction targets. Regardless of how we source our opportunity set, we remain steadfast in our returns-first approach to allocating capital, focused on our balance sheet to withstand any commodity price environment and staying disciplined to do right by all our stakeholders.

大型業者的合併後剝離也開始滲透，儘管品質參差不齊，我們預計隨著營運商審查其各種選擇和債務削減目標，這一主題將持續到 2025 年。無論我們如何尋找機會，我們都堅定不移地堅持回報第一的資本分配方法，專注於我們的資產負債表，以承受任何商品價格環境，並遵守所有利益相關者的正確做法。

With that, I'll turn it over to Chad.

有了這個，我就把它交給乍得。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

Our third-quarter results reflected the resilience of our asset portfolio. Average daily production in the quarter was 121,800 BOE per day, down 1% compared to Q2, but up 19% compared to Q3 of 2023. Oil production increased to 70,900 barrels per day, up 2% from Q2 and setting a new NOG record for oil production. Our Mascot Project JV contributed meaningfully as the wells that came online at the end of June fully contributed to production in the quarter. More importantly, our base asset continues to outperform our expectations.

我們第三季的業績反映了我們資產組合的彈性。該季度日均產量為 121,800 桶油當量，較第二季下降 1%，但較 2023 年第三季成長 19%。石油產量增加至 70,900 桶/日，較第二季成長 2%，創下 NOG 石油產量新紀錄。我們的 Mascot 專案合資企業做出了有意義的貢獻，因為 6 月底上線的油井完全為本季的產量做出了貢獻。更重要的是，我們的基礎資產持續超出我們的預期。

Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $412 million, slightly lower sequentially given lower commodity prices.

由於大宗商品價格下跌，本季調整後 EBITDA 為 4.12 億美元，季減。

Free cash flow of $177 million in the quarter was 32% higher sequentially and up 39% from the same period last year as we benefited from higher TIL count in Q2, coupled with strong well performance in Q3. We anticipate free cash flow to stay strong given the expectation of over 25 net wells forecasted for Q4 as well as the impact of having both Point and XCL contribute to production for a full quarter.

本季自由現金流為 1.77 億美元，比上一季成長 32%，比去年同期成長 39%，這得益於第二季 TIL 數量的增加以及第三季強勁的油井表現。考慮到第四季度預計將有超過 25 口淨井，以及 Point 和 XCL 對整個季度產量的影響，我們預計自由現金流將保持強勁。

Oil differentials came in at $3.45 per barrel for the quarter, better than our expectations as more of our production is weighted towards the Permian, which typically has better pricing than Williston. Permian differentials were modestly lower on a sequential quarterly basis with Williston differentials flat.

本季石油價差為每桶 3.45 美元，優於我們的預期，因為我們有更多的產量集中在二疊紀盆地，而二疊紀盆地的定價通常比威利斯頓更好。二疊紀差值較上月略有下降，威利斯頓差值持平。

Natural gas realizations were 72% of benchmark prices for the quarter, materially lower than expected due to weaker in-basin pricing as a result of lower NGL price realizations, coupled with weaker natural gas prices and negative Waha gas for most of the quarter. With nine months of history to point to, we are adjusting our full-year natural gas realization guidance higher to a range of 90% to 95%, reflecting current full-year expectations.

本季天然氣實現價格為基準價格的 72%，大大低於預期，原因是 NGL 價格實現下降導致流域內定價疲軟，加上天然氣價格疲軟，本季大部分時間瓦哈天然氣價格為負。考慮到九個月的歷史，我們將全年天然氣實現目標上調至 90% 至 95%，以反映當前的全年預期。

LOE was 6% higher sequentially to $9.54 per BOE, reflecting elevated saltwater disposal costs associated with newer wells and higher workover costs in the quarter related to the Permian. We do expect LOE to decline in the fourth quarter as XCL comes into play.

LOE 比上一季上漲 6%，達到每桶油當量 9.54 美元，反映出與新井相關的鹽水處理成本增加以及本季與二疊紀相關的修井成本增加。我們確實預計隨著 XCL 的發揮，LOE 將在第四季度下降。

Production taxes were abnormally low in the third quarter at 3% due to an immaterial out-of-period adjustment related to the classification of state income tax withholding in New Mexico that was previously recorded as production taxes. Excluding the impact of this adjustment, production taxes for the third quarter would have been 9.1%. Given the recalibration of New Mexico production taxes, along with the addition of the Uinta into the production mix, we revised our production tax guidance to a range of 8.5% to 9% to reflect our expected fourth quarter rate.

第三季生產稅異常低至 3%，原因是與新墨西哥州州所得稅預扣稅分類相關的非重大期外調整（先前記錄為生產稅）。剔除此調整的影響，第三季生產稅將為9.1%。鑑於新墨西哥州生產稅的重新調整，並將 Uinta 添加到生產組合中，我們將生產稅指引修訂為 8.5% 至 9% 的範圍，以反映我們預期的第四季度稅率。

On the CapEx front, we invested $198 million, inclusive of Ground Game in the quarter. Of the $198 million, 56% was allocated to the Permian, 41% to the Williston and 3% to Appalachia. We continue to see capital efficiencies with improved spud to sales timing even in the light of the lower commodity pricing. If this trend continues, we may end up at the higher end of our 2025 CapEx guidance range.

在資本支出方面，我們投資了 1.98 億美元，其中包括本季的 Ground Game。在 1.98 億美元中，56% 分配給二疊紀盆地，41% 分配給威利斯頓，3% 分配給阿巴拉契亞。即使大宗商品價格較低，我們仍看到資本效率隨著開工到銷售時間的改善而提高。如果這種趨勢持續下去，我們最終可能會達到 2025 年資本支出指引範圍的高端。

As we anticipated earlier in the year, working capital has continued to improve. We were able to hold leverage flat quarter over quarter at 1.16 times, inclusive of the Point acquisition and reduced borrowings on our revolving credit facility by approximately $105 million during the quarter before drawing down to pay for the Point acquisition. As of September 30, we had over $1.3 billion of liquidity comprised of $60 million of cash on hand, including the acquisition deposit for XCL and $1.2 billion available on our revolving credit facility.

正如我們今年稍早預期的那樣，營運資金持續改善。我們能夠將槓桿率季度環比保持在 1.16 倍，其中包括 Point 收購，並在本季度將循環信貸額度的借款減少了約 1.05 億美元，然後才提取用於支付 Point 收購的費用。截至 9 月 30 日，我們擁有超過 13 億美元的流動資金，其中包括 6,000 萬美元的手頭現金，包括 XCL 的收購存款和我們的循環信貸額度的 12 億美元。

We anticipate that our net debt to LQA EBITDA ratio will trend toward the higher end of our stated 1 to 1.5 times range, reflecting the addition of XCL to the revolver. However, given the strength of our base asset and the strong cash flow profiles of both Point and XCL, we expect to be back at the lower end of our leverage range by the end of 2025 based on the current strip.

我們預計，我們的淨債務與 LQA EBITDA 比率將趨向於我們規定的 1 至 1.5 倍範圍的高端，反映了 XCL 的加入。然而，考慮到我們基礎資產的實力以及 Point 和 XCL 強勁的現金流狀況，我們預計到 2025 年底，基於目前的槓桿率將回到槓桿範圍的下限。

In our Q3 operations update released a couple of weeks ago, we reiterated our 2024 CapEx and production guidance. And in our earnings release last night, we made a few tweaks to line item guidance to reflect our expectations for the remainder of the year. While we are not providing detailed 2025 guidance at this time, I will say that at this point in our budgeting cycle, we do not anticipate coming out with a budget over $1.1 billion at the high end for CapEx.

在幾週前發布的第三季營運更新中，我們重申了 2024 年資本支出和生產指引。在昨晚發布的財報中，我們對訂單項目指導進行了一些調整，以反映我們對今年剩餘時間的預期。雖然我們目前沒有提供詳細的 2025 年指導，但我想說的是，在我們預算週期的這個階段，我們預計資本支出的高端預算不會超過 11 億美元。

This concludes our prepared remarks. I'd like to open the call to questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Neal Dingmann, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Neal Dingmann，Truist 證券公司。

Hi. Good morning. It's a nice quarter. Nick, I was going to ask for a detailed '25 guide, but I'll refrain for now. My first question is really on what I'd call your operational and financial protection, something I heard you speak about in the prepared remarks. And obviously, with the election, there's a lot of potential for volatility now both maybe lower near term and ramping potentially after that.

你好。早安.這是一個美好的季度。尼克，我本來想索取一份詳細的 25 年指南，但現在我不會了。我的第一個問題實際上是關於我所說的您的營運和財務保護，我聽到您在準備好的演講中談到了這一點。顯然，隨著選舉的進行，現在存在著很大的波動潛力，短期內可能會較低，之後可能會加劇。

But I'm just wondering, if this happens, how -- could you talk a little bit about how you could pivot both organically in the Ground Games? And I guess what I'm wondering is would that shift in your organic activity just come from largely your operators reducing capital? Or is there more to this? Thank you.

但我只是想知道，如果發生這種情況，您能談談如何在地面遊戲中有機地調整兩者嗎？我想我想知道的是，您的有機活動的轉變是否主要來自於您的運營商減少資本？或者還有更多的事情嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. I mean, I think based on experience, this is the best part of our business model, Neal, which is that really we're not burdened by existing infrastructure, right. It's just money. So what we've observed during periods of volatility in the past is that we tend to do a little bit faster than the operators.

是的。我的意思是，我認為根據經驗，這是我們業務模式中最好的部分，尼爾，這實際上是我們不會受到現有基礎設施的負擔，對吧。這只是錢。因此，我們在過去的波動時期觀察到，我們往往比營運商做得更快一些。

So using 2020 as an example, we had a big downward move in price, and we reacted very swiftly. But then ultimately created a lot of opportunities, and about two-thirds of our capital really shifted to the Ground Game during 2020. And then organic activity started to build as 2020 came to a close and oil prices returned. But that Ground Game capital obviously became highly productive as it actually converted to sales in 2021 and created a huge windfall for us. And so that's kind of how you can convert those dollars into countercyclical success.

所以以2020年為例，我們的價格大幅下跌，我們的反應非常迅速。但最終創造了許多機會，我們大約三分之二的資金在2020年真正轉移到了地面遊戲。隨著 2020 年的結束和油價的回升，有機活動開始增強。但 Ground Game 資本顯然變得非常高效，因為它實際上在 2021 年轉化為銷售額，並為我們創造了巨額意外之財。這就是如何將這些資金轉化為反週期成功的方法。

I'd say this that overall, I think we'll remain flexible. And I think that that's why really in terms of where we are in the cycle right now, it's why we continue to hedge and why we tend to be very protective. But the flexibility that our model really provides is very different from most operators, and that's one of the best parts about what we do.

我想說的是，總的來說，我認為我們將保持靈活性。我認為這就是為什麼就我們現在所處的周期而言，這就是為什麼我們繼續進行對沖以及為什麼我們傾向於非常保護。但我們的模型真正提供的靈活性與大多數運營商有很大不同，這是我們所做的最好的部分之一。

And that includes your Ground Game as well that as far as the flexibility you would have around it?

這包括你的地面遊戲以及你所擁有的靈活性？

That's right. Yes. And even as it pertains to the Ground Game, ultimately, you're going to see -- if prices really unwind, you're going to see deferral of activity. And so that plays into a part of what types of Ground Game activity you're going to participate in, whether it be longer-dated type stuff, right? So whether it be long-dated acreage acquisitions or development that's going to be timed towards a farther period out.

這是正確的。是的。即使它與地面遊戲有關，最終你也會看到——如果價格真的回落，你會看到活動推遲。因此，這會影響您要參加的地面遊戲活動類型，無論是較長期的活動，對嗎？因此，無論是長期的土地收購或開發，都將安排在更長的時期內。

Yeah. Neal, this is Adam. I think the other thing I'd add is that the strip is naturally going to lead you to various operators as well as basins, right? You're going to be looking at what those breakevens are. We're running sensitivities on a real-time basis, understanding what the impact is to the total full cycle return as we're deploying that capital, depending on how big the asset is, then the hedging conversation would also come into play. But those are the types of things that we're looking at day in and day out as we're canvassing these types of opportunities and allocating capital.

是的。尼爾，這是亞當。我想我要補充的另一件事是，這條帶子自然會引導你到各種操作員和盆地，對吧？你將會看到這些損益平衡點是多少。我們正在即時運行敏感性，了解我們部署資本時對整個週期總回報的影響，具體取決於資產的規模，然後對沖對話也將發揮作用。但這些正是我們在探討此類機會和分配資本時日復一日地關注的事情。

Great. Great point. And then just secondly, maybe for Chad, just wondering -- the second is on sort of broad capital return question specifically. Nick, I think I've asked you or Chad about this before. Has anything changed these days versus, I don't know, a year or so ago when before all these deals, how you all think about allocating a dollar to your organic activity or reinvestment versus Ground Game versus debt repayment versus dividend versus stock repurchases?

偉大的。很棒的一點。其次，也許對乍得來說，只是想知道──第二個具體是關於廣泛的資本回報問題。尼克，我想我以前曾問過你或查德這個問題。與我不知道的大約一年前相比，在所有這些交易之前，現在有什麼變化嗎？債務償還、股利、股票回購？

I'll answer the first part, Chad. Feel free to fill in. I don't think so, Neal. I mean, I think everything -- we are truly mechanical and return-driven. I think we really think about this in terms of optimal total return, Neal.

我會回答第一部分，查德。請隨意填寫。我不這麼認為，尼爾。我的意思是，我認為一切——我們都是真正的機械和回報驅動的。我認為我們確實從最佳總回報的角度來考慮這個問題，尼爾。

And so in general, dollars in the ground have higher risk, but always -- almost always have a higher return. And so obviously, organic dollars go the farthest followed probably by Ground Game and then ultimately acquisitions. Share repurchases are obviously generate also additional returns at a lower risk. And then dividends obviously provide a different type of return for our investors. This year, obviously, we pivoted some of our shareholder returns to buybacks.

因此，總的來說，地下資金的風險較高，但幾乎總是有較高的回報。顯然，有機資金走得最遠，其次可能是地面遊戲，然後是最終的收購。股票回購顯然還能以較低的風險產生額外的報酬。股息顯然為我們的投資者提供了不同類型的回報。顯然，今年我們將部分股東回報轉向了回購。

And then as we go in to meet with the Board at the end of the year, I think one of the things we have to think about is as you deliver that return, while buybacks can provide a permanent type of efficiency, dividends provide a different type of value to investors, and we'll have to weigh those decisions as we go and analyze it to the Board of what type of long-term value that creates because they are different, and we've weighed them differently at points in time, and that's really a Board level decision, but we'll take it in stride.

然後，當我們在年底與董事會會面時，我認為我們必須考慮的一件事是，當你提供回報時，雖然回購可以提供永久性的效率，但股息提供了不同的效率。類型，我們必須權衡這些決策，並向董事會分析會創造什麼類型的長期價值，因為它們是不同的，而且我們在不同的時間點對它們進行了不同的權衡，這確實是董事會級別的決定，但我們會泰然處之。

Yes, Neal, the only thing I'd follow on with Nick's comments is just given that we've flexed the balance sheet a little bit here with both these acquisitions. So I think, in the near term, we'll be mindful of probably debt reduction over some of the other things. But like Nick mentioned, everything is on the table. We evaluate all as one.

是的，尼爾，我對尼克評論的唯一關注是，我們透過這兩次收購稍微調整了資產負債表。因此，我認為，在短期內，我們可能會在其他一些事情上考慮債務削減。但就像尼克提到的那樣，一切都擺在桌面上。我們將所有人視為一個整體。

(Operator Instructions) Scott Hanold, RBC.

（操作員說明）Scott Hanold，RBC。

Yeah, thanks. I appreciate the fact that you all are going to wait until early next year to provide some more details on the budget. But Nick, you kind of made the point regarding you need to take several quarters to evaluate capital spending and production trends given the business model and the way things are accrued. As you see things building into the fourth quarter and potentially into early next year, could you kind of frame up like how you guys are set up into 4Q and into 1Q as far as like that production trajectory as well as capital?

是的，謝謝。我很高興你們都等到明年初才提供更多預算的細節。但是尼克，你提出了這樣的觀點：考慮到商業模式和累積方式，你需要花幾個季度的時間來評估資本支出和生產趨勢。當您看到事情將持續到第四季度並可能持續到明年初時，您能否像您一樣制定第四季度和第一季的生產軌跡和資本情況？

Yeah. I mean, the way I would just describe it, Scott, is that there's a number of kind of turn-in lines, call it, in the 90-ish range, which is sort of a sustaining number of turn-in lines, right? But the amount of capital we spend around that can vary wildly, right? So especially as we talk about the accrual. So the D&C list and think about that as the number of wells in process, whether we draw down our existing D&C list and sort of eat through that backlog or we build it as we build growth for the following year as well as acquire inventory throughout the year can have a big difference.

是的。我的意思是，斯科特，我描述它的方式是，有很多種上交線，可以這麼說，在 90 左右的範圍內，這是一種持續數量的上交線，對吧？但我們在這方面花費的資本金額可能會有很大差異，對嗎？尤其是當我們談論應計費用時。因此，D&C 清單並考慮到正在處理的油井數量，我們是否會減少現有的 D&C 清單並解決積壓的訂單，或者我們在為下一年建立增長並在整個過程中獲取庫存時建立它。會有很大差異。

So you can drill and complete 90 wells throughout the year and actually spend less than an equivalent capital or you can still spend a substantively larger amount of money. And it really depends on the environment you're in. I'd also add that we are truly return-driven. And so if oil prices are $50, ultimately, is 90 wells the right number. And if oil prices are $85, maybe $90 is too few.

因此，您可以全年鑽探並完井 90 口井，而實際上花費的資金少於同等資本，或者您仍然可以花費大量資金。這其實取決於你所處的環境。我還要補充一點，我們是真正以回報為導向的。因此，如果油價為 50 美元，最終 90 口井是正確的數字。如果油價是 85 美元，那麼 90 美元也許就太少了。

And so I think really what we want to figure out is we want to take the time to go through both the projects that we have in hand organically, inorganically and as we look through it and both make the right decision in terms of the actual number of wells we want to turn online. And then on top of that, all of the projects and things we want to build towards the future year as well as the ad-hoc spending we want to tuck in there, and that really drives that number. And that is why we try to take the amount as much time as we do. Chad?

因此，我認為我們真正想要弄清楚的是，我們希望花時間有機地、無機地審查我們手頭上的兩個項目，並在我們仔細研究時，根據實際數量做出正確的決定。的油井。最重要的是，我們想要在未來一年建立的所有項目和事物，以及我們想要投入其中的臨時支出，這確實推動了這個數字。這就是為什麼我們盡量花盡可能多的時間。查德?

I think it's the D&C list, but it's also going to be the nature and the makeup of the D&C list, right? What's the overall well productivity? What's the stage of completions as we exit the year? What does that look like?

我認為這是 D&C 名單，但這也將是 D&C 名單的性質和組成，對吧？整體油井產能是多少？今年結束時，工程已完成到什麼階段？那看起來像什麼？

And then what is the organic asset pulling and the quality of the well proposals on that? And then dovetailing into what we've been talking about with Neal and prior comments on the Ground Game, right? I mean, if we're going to see a pullback in commodity pricing, then you're typically going to see operators retreating to the core and drilling some of the best stuff and lowest breakevens. And so what does that mean in terms of organic activity levels in the Ground Game as well.

那麼有機資產的拉動和油井提案的品質是什麼？然後與我們一直在與尼爾討論的內容以及之前對地面遊戲的評論相吻合，對吧？我的意思是，如果我們要看到大宗商品價格回落，那麼您通常會看到運營商撤退到核心並鑽探一些最好的東西和最低的盈虧平衡點。那麼這對於地面遊戲中的有機活動水平意味著什麼？

Okay, understood. And I'm going to just ask for one point of clarification, and I had my -- I'll add on to my second question. But does that mean 1Q is going to be relatively flat, you think, kind of to what you look at fourth quarter kind of the fall to that, but --

好的，明白了。我只想要求澄清一點，我已經得到了我的——我將補充我的第二個問題。但這是否意味著第一季將相對平穩，你認為，有點像你所看到的第四季度的下降，但是--

I would say, historically, almost every quarter we've ever existed, we see a minor downtick in Q1 from Q4, and that's just seasonality in the Williston, Scott. So it's usually down a couple of percent. I think almost every year we've ever been here -- and we've had a few miracles in weather. But as long as the Williston becomes a substantive part of our production, it usually has some seasonality to it, but it's not meaningful, but it's almost always that case.

我想說，從歷史上看，幾乎每個季度我們都會看到第一季比第四季略有下降，這只是威利斯頓斯科特的季節性。所以它通常會下降幾個百分點。我想我們幾乎每年都會來到這裡——並且我們都創造了一些天氣奇蹟。但只要威利斯頓成為我們生產的實質組成部分，它通常就會有一些季節性，但意義不大，但幾乎總是如此。

And as Adam mentioned in his comments, we do anticipate just given the nature of our big joint ventures that we will be building the D&C list in the first half of the year, and that's just based on what we have in hand today. So that will have some effect on it. But I don't think it's going to be dramatic.

正如 Adam 在評論中提到的那樣，考慮到我們大型合資企業的性質，我們確實預計我們將在今年上半年建立 D&C 清單，而這只是基於我們今天手頭上的情況。所以這會對它產生一些影響。但我認為這不會是戲劇性的。

Got it. Okay. That's what I was looking for. And then my follow-up is, I noticed in your corporate presentation when you broke out the commodity by basin that a little bit of oil popped up this quarter for the first time in Appalachia. Could you give us a little bit of color on what that's from? And just give us a sense, it sounds like you're looking at some more kind of Ground Game opportunities popping up in Appalachia. Just give a little bit of color around that.

知道了。好的。這就是我一直在尋找的。然後我的後續行動是，我在你們的公司演示中註意到，當你們按盆地細分商品時，本季度阿巴拉契亞地區首次出現了一點石油。您能為我們透露一下它的來源嗎？讓我們感覺一下，聽起來您正在尋找阿巴拉契亞地區出現的更多地面遊戲機會。只需在其周圍添加一點顏色即可。

I'm impressed to notice. Yes. We have obviously been expanding in the Utica, and we have tapped into the oil window there. We've continued to have success on the ground. As I mentioned, we've had -- in my prepared comments and Adam did, we've had really good success in ground leasing. The Utica is one of the areas in which we have been successful. I think we will continue to be so.

我很高興注意到。是的。顯然，我們一直在尤蒂卡擴張，我們已經利用了那裡的石油窗口。我們繼續在實地取得成功。正如我所提到的，我們在我準備好的評論中和亞當所做的那樣，我們在地面租賃方面取得了非常好的成功。尤蒂卡是我們成功的地區之一。我想我們會繼續如此。

Adam?

亞當？

Yeah. I mean, I think we announced kind of our large-ish transaction in Q1 in the Utica this year, and we've built on that, right? I think the press releases is the best advertisement in order to bring in those opportunities. And so we're going to treat the Utica no different than any other basin, walk before you run. And so we're starting to get some of that traction in order to keep that momentum.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們今年第一季在尤蒂卡宣布了一項大型交易，我們已經在此基礎上進行了交易，對嗎？我認為新聞稿是帶來這些機會的最佳廣告。因此，我們對待尤蒂卡盆地的態度與對待任何其他盆地沒有什麼不同，先走後跑。因此，我們開始獲得一些牽引力，以保持這種勢頭。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德，約翰遜·賴斯。

Good morning, Nick, Adam, and Chad, and the whole NOG team there. Nick, you've covered a lot of ground on the CapEx trends here. And I'm sorry if I'm kind of belaboring this point. But if I look at your TIL guide and look at what you've done this year, I just want to make sure I'm understanding what it looks like on your end.

早安，Nick、Adam 和 Chad，以及整個 NOG 團隊。尼克，您在這裡已經介紹了很多關於資本支出趨勢的內容。如果我在這一點上有些囉嗦，我很抱歉。但是，如果我查看您的 TIL 指南並了解您今年所做的事情，我只是想確保我了解您的情況。

Maybe this goes back to Chad's comments. Are we looking at about 30 TILs for 4Q, which would kind of be about even with what the 2Q number was and all other things being equal, which, of course, there never are, but that suggests that your 4Q CapEx would be about the same as 2Q?

也許這可以追溯到乍得的評論。我們是否會考慮第 4 季的大約 30 個 TIL，這與第 2 季的數字和所有其他條件相同的情況下差不多，當然，這從來沒有，但這表明您的第 4 季資本支出將約為和2Q一樣嗎？

I would say 25 plus, Charles, right? So it could be as high as 30. Obviously, as a non-op, the timing can vary, but I'd say confident in 25 plus.

我會說 25 歲以上，查爾斯，對嗎？所以它可能高達 30。顯然，作為非操作員，時間可能會有所不同，但我對 25 以上充滿信心。

Yes. October was certainly an active month. Obviously, we'll see what November and December hold.

是的。十月無疑是一個活躍的月份。顯然，我們將看看 11 月和 12 月的情況如何。

Okay. Got it. And then I wonder, in your prepared comments, and this is about the Uinta Basin. You mentioned this Douglas Creek wells. The operator talked about those last week. Maybe you can share anything? I know it's still early days, but what have you guys seen as you've been getting all the data? And what is it -- does it change anything on what role -- on your thinking of what role the Uinta could play in the '25 plan?

好的。知道了。然後我想知道，在您準備好的評論中，這是關於尤因塔盆地的。你提到了道格拉斯溪井。接線員上週談到了這些。或許你可以分享什麼？我知道現在還為時過早，但是當你們獲得所有數據後，你們看到了什麼？它是什麼——它會改變你對 Uinta 在 '25 計劃中可以扮演什麼角色的看法嗎？

I mean, I think, look, the transition of operatorship is really just beginning, Charles. So it's really early days. I think what I would tell you is that SM, obviously, they're just -- they talked about how they're changing some stuff and extending laterals. That's really them taking the reins of the plans that we had really underwritten in, which is that we really wanted to go with our own spacing plan and our own longer laterals, and it's nice to see them going and doing that. They will change it up some.

我的意思是，我認為，看，營運權的過渡實際上才剛開始，查爾斯。所以現在還為時過早。我想我要告訴你的是，SM，顯然，他們只是 - 他們談論瞭如何改變一些東西並擴展橫向。這實際上是他們掌控了我們真正承保的計劃，也就是說，我們真的想採用我們自己的間距計劃和我們自己的更長的支線，很高興看到他們這樣做並這樣做。他們會改變一些。

So I would say the only thing I would say is it's an affirmation of what we wanted to do. Outside of that, I think in terms of the Douglas Creek, seeing some positive results in the upper cube as we go into full cube development is always a good thing to see. But I think what we -- I'd also say is almost every single joint venture that we've been a part of is that there is -- the early days are always the part that you always watch with bated breath, right, which is as you see a period where a new operator is taking over and they hit their sea legs over a few months.

所以我想說我唯一想說的是這是對我們想做的事情的肯定。除此之外，我認為就道格拉斯溪而言，當我們進入全立方體開發時，看到上立方體取得一些積極成果總是一件好事。但我認為我們——我還要說的是，我們參與的幾乎每一個合資企業都有——早期總是你總是屏息以待的部分，對吧，這正如你所看到的，新的營運商正在接手，他們在幾個月內就開始發揮作用。

And then really, we've seen in the kind of six months post operatorship transition, we've seen real acceleration of development and huge gains, and we're hopeful to see that. We've seen that on Forge and Novo as the operators have just really taken the reins once they've had kind of full ownership, and we're not quite there yet, right? Obviously, they've barely taken possession. It's been less than a month here.

事實上，我們在營運商過渡後的六個月內看到了發展的真正加速和巨大的收益，我們希望看到這一點。我們已經在 Forge 和 Novo 上看到了這一點，因為運營商一旦擁有了完全的所有權，就真正掌握了控制權，但我們還沒有完全做到這一點，對吧？顯然，他們還沒有佔據主動權。來這裡還不到一個月。

Early days, but certainly encouraging. You look at the oil cut in the Douglas Creek and then shifting your focus on the cost and efficiency initiatives that everybody is going to be laser-focused on. The sand mine is going to help with that. My prepared remarks alluded to shaving a couple of few hundred thousand dollars up well costs there. And then Nick alluded to the lateral length, all those types of things are going into how we can optimize overall operations and generate additional returns on top of what was even under.

雖然還處於起步階段，但確實令人鼓舞。你看看道格拉斯河的石油開採，然後將注意力轉移到每個人都將高度關注的成本和效率計劃。沙礦將對此有所幫助。我準備好的演講提到要削減幾十萬美元的油井成本。然後尼克提到了橫向長度，所有這些類型的事情都涉及我們如何優化整體營運並在甚至低於的基礎上產生額外的回報。

Phillips Johnston, Capital One.

菲利普斯約翰斯頓，《第一資本》。

Hey. Thanks for the question. Just a follow up on Charles' question there on the XCL. So it sounds like the six wells that are being delayed, it sounds like that's not going to have any material impact to your fourth-quarter production trajectory. Is that the way to think about it?

嘿。謝謝你的提問。只是 Charles 關於 XCL 的問題的後續。因此，聽起來六口井被推遲了，這似乎不會對第四季度的生產軌跡產生任何實質影響。是這樣思考的嗎？

That's right. I mean, I think that just highlights the diversification across our business. And so where you might stumble in one place, you're going to make that up. We're taking a look at October results and some of the fires within the Williston and the production blips that we saw there in the Permian making up for that.

這是正確的。我的意思是，我認為這凸顯了我們業務的多元化。因此，如果你可能在某個地方犯了錯誤，你就會彌補這一點。我們正在關注 10 月的結果以及威利斯頓內的一些火災以及我們在二疊紀看到的生產波動來彌補這一點。

I think we're certainly encouraged. We talked about XCL, didn't necessarily talk about Point. I think we're certainly encouraged about some of the early well results that we're seeing on the new TILs. I think those are outperforming, call it, 30% than what was originally underwritten with some of the new wells that those guys are bringing online. So we're excited about that prospect. And just given the overall asset base, you're not going to see that type of reaction at a corporate-wide level when certain things get delayed.

我認為我們當然受到鼓勵。我們討論了 XCL，不一定討論 Point。我認為，我們在新的 TIL 上看到的一些早期油井結果肯定讓我們感到鼓舞。我認為這些人上線的一些新油井的表現比最初承保的表現要好 30%。所以我們對這個前景感到興奮。考慮到整體資產基礎，當某些事情被推遲時，你不會在整個公司範圍內看到這種類型的反應。

Yeah. Okay, sounds good. And then just the production guidance for the year, it obviously implies a pretty big ramp here in the fourth quarter. Obviously, you've got the two larger acquisitions. But looking at the midpoint, it implies around [$87,000] a day or so on oil. Are you guys comfortable with that implied midpoint? Or would you expect things to sort of shake out in the bottom half of the range for the year?

是的。好吧，聽起來不錯。然後是今年的生產指導，這顯然意味著第四季會有相當大的成長。顯然，您已經進行了兩次較大的收購。但從中點來看，它意味著每天大約 [87,000 美元] 左右的石油價格。你們對這個隱含的中點感到滿意嗎？或者您預計今年的情況會在區間的下半部分發生變化嗎？

I think it's really going to depend on timing, Phil. So obviously, you have a huge number of TILs and without -- I hesitate to punt, but we have so many TILs. And as always, it really is going to depend on how quickly they come on and as that is the one bad part, which is that we don't control.

我認為這真的取決於時機，菲爾。很明顯，你有大量的 TIL，而沒有——我猶豫是否要下注，但我們有這麼多的 TIL。像往常一樣，這實際上取決於它們出現的速度，因為這是一個不好的部分，這是我們無法控制的。

So it is achievable to the extent that we see things come on extremely quickly. If not, obviously, I think the range is we're very comfortable with. I think the question will be one of timing. And so that is really the driver. And so that -- but from a TIL perspective, we'll get there. It's just a question of the averaging within the quarter.

因此，只要我們看到事情進展得非常快，這是可以實現的。如果不是，顯然，我認為這個範圍是我們非常滿意的。我認為問題在於時機問題。所以這才是真正的驅動力。所以，但從 TIL 的角度來看，我們會實現這一目標。這只是季度內平均的問題。

Paul Diamond, Citi.

保羅戴蒙德，花旗銀行。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. Just a quick one. You guys talked about seeing some more kind of bespoke opportunities you're seeing as you kind of expand beyond the Ground Game traditional non-op. So I wanted to dig in a little bit more there. Are these bilateral negotiations with existing partners? Or are these something a bit more specific?

早安.感謝您接聽我的電話。只是快一點。你們談到了當你們擴展到地面遊戲傳統非操作之外時看到的更多定制機會。所以我想在那裡再深入一點。這些是與現有合作夥伴的雙邊談判嗎？或者這些是更具體的東西嗎？

I would say that the bilateral are kind of off-market opportunities that we're seeing are largely with discussions with our operators, understanding exactly what they're trying to get out of a particular transaction. And then depending on what they're trying to solve for, that's where we can start bringing up different kind of structural conversations.

我想說，雙邊是一種場外機會，我們看到的主要是與我們的運營商進行討論，以準確了解他們試圖從特定交易中獲得什麼。然後根據他們想要解決的問題，我們可以開始提出不同類型的結構性對話。

And so whether that's a joint development program, whether that's a minority interest buydown, whether they're looking to grow and potentially doing some sort of co-purchase, those types of things, those are generally your off-market types of conversations. If it's a typical non-op package, that's generally going to get put to market. And if it isn't, then you should probably question what someone is paying for it.

因此，無論這是一個聯合開發計劃，無論是少數股權收購，還是他們正在尋求增長並可能進行某種共同購買，這些類型的事情，這些通常是您的場外對話類型。如果它是典型的非操作包，通常會投放市場。如果不是，那麼你可能應該質疑有人為此付出了什麼代價。

But I think if it's vanilla in a regular way, then you're generally going to see a typical marketing process. If it gets more involved and you've got more bells and whistles and levers that you need to pull, that's where I think we can be more constructive in an off-market type of conversation.

但我認為，如果它是常規方式，那麼您通常會看到典型的行銷流程。如果它變得更加複雜，並且你有更多的花里胡哨和槓桿需要拉動，那麼我認為我們可以在場外類型的對話中更具建設性。

Understood. And just one quick follow-up. You guys have talked about this quarter and a few prior about kind of increasing activity cadence. You had 10 wells pulled forward this quarter. How do you think about that on the longer term? Is that more compression? Or is that just timing this year? Or how should we think about if that trend continues?

明白了。只需一個快速跟進。你們已經討論過本季和之前的幾個季度增加的活動節奏。本季您已提前開採了 10 口井。從長遠來看，您如何看待這個問題？那是不是更壓縮了？或者說這只是今年的時機？或者說，如果這種趨勢持續下去，我們該如何思考？

I think we've adjusted, Paul, to the concept that overall speed of development has increased, and I think we've made adjustments accordingly. I think given the change in commodity prices where we are now, I think it's less likely that we're going to be surprised going forward.

保羅，我認為我們已經調整了整體發展速度提高的概念，並且我認為我們已經做出了相應的調整。我認為考慮到目前大宗商品價格的變化，我認為未來我們不太可能感到驚訝。

If anything, I think we start to see some pausing of development just because we've seen lower prices and some, especially on the small private side, you see deferrals here or there just as people wait for slightly better price environments. And so I think it's less likely that we're going to see true acceleration kind of beyond our measure.

如果有什麼不同的話，我認為我們開始看到一些開發暫停，只是因為我們看到了較低的價格，而一些開發，特別是在小型私人方面，你會看到這裡或那裡的延期，就像人們等待稍微好一點的價格環境一樣。因此，我認為我們不太可能看到超出我們衡量範圍的真正加速。

But I think the other thing is that we have seen ultimately to save money. Speed of development has been the biggest driver over the last two years. And so it's just been completing wells faster, drilling wells faster, the cutting, shaving days has been the driver, and we've had to adjust accordingly.

但我認為另一件事是我們最終看到的是省錢。發展速度是過去兩年最大的推手。因此，完井速度更快，鑽井速度更快，切割、修整天數一直是驅動因素，我們必須做出相應調整。

Adam, I don't know if you want to add to that.

亞當，我不知道你是否想補充這一點。

Actually, no.

事實上，沒有。

Noah Hungness, Bank of America.

諾亞·洪尼斯，美國銀行。

Morning, Nick and team. I just was hoping you guys could expand a little bit on maybe some of the well deferrals or if you had any insights on to maybe what the criteria is some of these operators are looking for. And if it is just lower commodity prices, do you think at some point, if commodity prices just stabilize at a lower level, then they would turn those wells in line?

早上好，尼克和團隊。我只是希望你們能夠對一些油井延期進行一些擴展，或者您是否對這些運營商正在尋找的標準有任何見解。如果只是大宗商品價格下跌，您是否認為在某個時候，如果大宗商品價格穩定在較低水平，那麼他們是否會將這些油井轉變為一致？

To your latter point, we've seen exactly that happen over time. We've seen producers and not to name names, but we've seen a handful of producers at times pause wells only to then turn them on when commodity prices didn't go back up over time, hoping that prices would go up or what have you and then ultimately just turn them on. And so that's typical, especially with some of the small privates.

對於你的後一點，我們已經看到隨著時間的推移發生了這種情況。我們看到了一些生產商，但我們看到少數生產商有時會暫停油井，直到大宗商品價格沒有隨著時間的推移而回升時才將其打開，希望價格會上漲或什麼擁有你，然後最終將它們打開。這很典型，尤其是對一些小兵來說。

Yeah. The private operators are generally a bit more sensitive to it and then bring it in the hedge book. And whether or not there no hedges, no debt will certainly affect those types of decisions. But like the M&A market and volatility, you've got a bid-ask spread, but as things kind of settle out, then that's when people generally get moving.

是的。私人業者一般對此較為敏感，然後將其納入對沖帳簿。無論是否沒有對沖，沒有債務肯定會影響這些類型的決策。但就像併購市場和波動性一樣，買賣價差也存在，但隨著事情穩定下來，人們通常就會開始行動。

Makes sense. And then just as my last question, can you guys talk about how your decline rate has evolved this year and maybe where it will end up being or where you think it will be as an exit rate for '24?

有道理。然後，正如我的最後一個問題，你們能談談你們今年的下降率是如何演變的，也許它最終會變成什麼樣子，或者你們認為 24 世紀的退出率會是什麼樣子？

Yeah. Hey, Noah. We came into the year kind of in the high 30s with a lot of activity towards the back half of the year and some of the new acquisitions being pretty steep declines. As we've gone through the year, obviously, it's moderated a bit. We probably exit the year kind of in the mid-30s as Novo and other assets have kind of moderated from their peaks.

是的。嘿，諾亞。今年我們進入了 30 多歲的時期，下半年有很多活動，一些新收購的數量大幅下降。隨著我們度過這一年，顯然，它有所緩和。我們可能會在 30 多歲左右結束這一年，因為 Novo 和其他資產已經從高峰有所放緩。

I think kind of in the low to mid-30s is kind of our go-forward run rate we would expect. Obviously, if there's less large acquisitions with high declines, we'll continue to moderate throughout the year, but that's kind of where we sit today.

我認為 30 多歲左右是我們預期的前進速度。顯然，如果大型收購減少且跌幅較大，我們將在全年繼續溫和，但這就是我們今天的處境。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call to Nick O'Grady for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉給尼克·奧格雷迪，讓他致閉幕詞。

Thanks all for joining us today. We look forward to meeting with you in the near future, and thanks for your interest in our company.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在不久的將來與您見面，並感謝您對我們公司的興趣。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。