諾斯洛普·格拉曼 (NOC) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's third-quarter 2026 conference call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Josh and I will be your operator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Randy Sinclair, Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Sinclair, please proceed.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加諾斯洛普格魯曼（Northrop Grumman）2026年第三季電話會議。今天的電話會議將被錄音。我叫Josh，今天將擔任各位的電話會議接線員。目前所有與會者均處於僅收聽模式。現在我想把電話交給本次會議主持人——投資人關係副總裁Randy Sinclair先生。Sinclair先生，請開始。

Good morning, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's third-quarter 2026 conference call. Before we begin, please note that matters discussed on today's call, including guidance and outlooks for 2026 and beyond, reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities laws.

各位早安，歡迎參加諾斯洛普格魯曼2026年第三季電話會議。在開始之前，請注意，今天電話會議中討論的事項（包括對2026年及以後的指引與展望）反映公司基於本次電話會議時可得資訊所作出的判斷。這些內容依據聯邦證券法的「安全港」條款，構成前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those noted in today's press release and our SEC filings, which may cause actual company results to differ materially. Today's call will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to our GAAP results in the earnings release. Additionally, we will reference a presentation that has been posted on our investor relations website. Joining us on the call today are Kathy Warden, our Chair, CEO and President; and John Green, our CFO. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kathy.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險與不確定性，包括今日新聞稿及我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件中所述者，可能導致公司實際結果出現重大差異。今天的電話會議也將包含非GAAP財務衡量指標，並已在盈餘新聞稿中與我們的GAAP結果進行調節對帳。此外，我們將引用一份已發布於投資人關係網站的簡報。今天與會者包括我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁Kathy Warden，以及財務長John Green。接下來我把電話交給Kathy。

Thanks, Randy, and good morning, everyone. Northrop Grumman's third-quarter results reflect strong and disciplined execution across the company. We're delivering on our commitments and we're doing it with innovation and urgency. Our execution is based on an enduring strategy and adaptive approach, meeting our customers' needs through technology innovation, a laser focus on performance, and value-driven capital deployment. Guided by that strategy, we've deliberately and continuously shaped our portfolio to align with our customers' top priorities, and I'm confident our investments and industry-leading performance will enable durable sales and earnings growth for the foreseeable future.

謝謝你，Randy，各位早安。諾斯洛普格魯曼第三季的業績反映出公司各部門強勁且嚴謹的執行力。我們正在兌現承諾，並以創新與緊迫感來完成。我們的執行建立在長期策略與彈性方法之上，透過技術創新、對績效的高度聚焦，以及以價值為導向的資本配置來滿足客戶需求。在該策略指引下，我們有意識且持續地調整投資組合，以對齊客戶的最高優先事項；我有信心，我們的投資與業界領先的表現將在可預見的未來帶來持續的營收與獲利成長。

As the threat environment evolves, maintaining America's advantage requires significant and balanced investment in both the attributable mass that supports resilience and the exquisite capabilities that remain the backbone of deterrence and power projection. In a complex world with growing needs for solutions that scale and perform in contested environments, our customers continue to turn to Northrop Grumman.

隨著威脅環境演變，維持美國優勢需要在兩方面進行重大且均衡的投資：一是支撐韌性的可歸屬規模（attributable mass），二是仍為嚇阻與力量投射骨幹的精密能力（exquisite capabilities）。在一個複雜的世界中，對可擴展且能在受爭奪環境中運作的解決方案需求日增，我們的客戶持續選擇諾斯洛普格魯曼。

We have leading roles in the strategic triad, space superiority, microelectronics, and homeland defense. We also offer innovative and cost-effective solutions in emerging market segments, including counter UAS and autonomous systems. And we are investing to rapidly expand our munitions and missile capacity to meet operational needs and increase demand.

我們在戰略三位一體、太空優勢、微電子與國土防衛方面扮演領導角色。我們也在新興市場領域提供創新且具成本效益的解決方案，包括反無人機系統（counter UAS）與自主系統。同時，我們正投資以快速擴充彈藥與飛彈產能，以滿足作戰需求並因應需求增加。

Our company's portfolio breadth matched with our execution turned strategic alignment into delivered capability and value creation, as demonstrated in our third-quarter results. In the quarter, our book-to-bill was 1.5 times, which drove a new record backlog of $110 billion, reflecting robust demand and years of durable sales. Performance across the portfolio was exceptional with a segment operating margin rate over 12%. These outcomes are built on disciplined program execution, and our team continues to deliver many significant accomplishments.

公司投資組合的廣度結合我們的執行力，將策略對齊轉化為已交付的能力與價值創造，並在第三季業績中得到印證。本季我們的接單出貨比（book-to-bill）為1.5倍，帶動積壓訂單（backlog）創新高達1,100億美元，反映需求強勁並支撐多年可持續的銷售。整體投資組合表現卓越，部門營業利益率超過12%。這些成果建立在嚴謹的專案執行之上，我們的團隊持續達成多項重要里程碑。

On Sentinel, all aspects of the program are progressing as planned as we complete multiple tests and achieve our milestones on this complex development effort. In the quarter, we completed the first full vertical assembly of an inert missile at Vandenberg Space Force Base and gained approval from the U.S. Air Force on Sentinel design maturity for first flight to proceed in 2027. This program is a key growth driver this year and throughout the 2030s as we complete the development and transition into production.

在Sentinel專案方面，隨著我們完成多項測試並達成這項複雜研發工作的里程碑，專案各面向皆按計畫推進。本季我們在范登堡太空軍基地（Vandenberg Space Force Base）完成首枚惰性飛彈的首次完整垂直組裝，並獲得美國空軍對Sentinel設計成熟度的核准，使其得以在2027年進行首次飛行。隨著我們完成研發並轉入量產，該專案將成為今年以及整個2030年代的重要成長動能。

In space systems, we provide space vehicles and ground systems for the space development agency's proliferated warfighter space architecture. We recently launched and deployed our first 21 satellites for the Tranche 1 Transport Layer, a critical step in the execution of unparalleled space-based communication to the US Space Force.

在太空系統方面，我們為太空發展署（Space Development Agency）的「分散式作戰人員太空架構」（proliferated warfighter space architecture）提供太空載具與地面系統。我們近期已發射並部署Tranche 1運輸層（Transport Layer）的首批21顆衛星，這是為美國太空軍提供前所未有的太空基通訊能力之執行過程中的關鍵一步。

In the next six months, we expect a sustained cadence of launches with nearly 50 of our 150 satellites planned for deployment to support transport and tracking missions. Across our company, we see a sustainable and profitable growth trajectory. As John will share in more detail, we are exceeding our own expectations and increasing our 2026 guidance for segment operating income, margin rate, and earnings per share.

在未來六個月內，我們預期將維持穩定的發射節奏，計畫部署的150顆衛星中，將有近50顆完成部署，以支援運輸與追蹤任務。放眼全公司，我們看到可持續且具獲利性的成長軌跡。如John稍後將更詳細說明，我們的表現超出自身預期，並上調2026年部門營業利益、利益率以及每股盈餘的指引。

We expect to drive that momentum into 2027 as we ramp B-21 testing and production, advance Sentinel, continue our leadership in national security space, and meet increased demand for missile and munitions production. Our confidence in program execution is reflected in our 2027 outlook, where we expect to accelerate growth and expand margins and cash to offset increased capital investments for the B-21 acceleration, maintaining our previously communicated cash flow range.

我們預期在2027年延續這股動能，隨著我們提升B-21測試與產量、推進Sentinel、持續在國家安全太空領域保持領導地位，並滿足飛彈與彈藥產量增加的需求。我們對專案執行的信心反映在2027年展望中：我們預期在加速成長的同時擴大利潤率與現金，以抵銷為B-21加速所增加的資本投資，並維持先前已溝通的現金流區間。

Beyond 2027, we expect growth to again accelerate and margins to further expand as we ramp on franchise programs, increase production volumes and grow international sales. Our outlook reflects both the depth and promise of our premier portfolio with new sources of growth already taking shape. One example of our response to growing market demand is Raid Hunter, our latest addition to our counter-UAS portfolio.

在2027年之後，我們預期隨著核心特許專案（franchise programs）加速爬坡、提高產量並擴大國際銷售，成長將再次加速，利潤率也將進一步擴張。我們的展望同時反映出我們頂尖投資組合的深度與潛力，且新的成長來源已開始成形。因應市場需求增加的一個例子是Raid Hunter——我們反無人機（counter-UAS）產品組合中的最新成員。

Raid Hunter is a cost-effective product line that's designed to close a critical short-range defense gap as drone swarms and cruise missiles become more common. This gun-based air defense system combines our proven Bushmaster chain gun technology and new precision-guided 50-millimeter ammunition to deliver powerful protection against high-volume raids.

Raid Hunter是一條具成本效益的產品線，旨在彌補短程防空的關鍵缺口，因為無人機蜂群與巡弋飛彈正變得更為常見。這套以火砲為基礎的防空系統結合我們經驗證的Bushmaster鏈砲技術與新型精準導引50毫米彈藥，可在高密度襲擊下提供強大防護。

We're receiving clear demand signals for Raid Hunter from key allies and expected to drive incremental growth for an already rapidly growing defense systems portfolio. We also definitized the Virginia Class Block VI submarine procurement for an additional 12 ship sets of main propulsion units and ship service turbine generators.

我們已從關鍵盟友收到對Raid Hunter的明確需求訊號，預期將為已快速成長的防務系統投資組合帶來額外增量成長。我們也已完成維吉尼亞級（Virginia Class）Block VI潛艦採購案的最終定案（definitized），新增12套艦用主推進單元與艦用服務渦輪發電機。

The award value adds $1.4 billion to backlog, supporting our partnership with the Navy through 2032. Additionally, we had multiple competitive strategic award wins in our restricted space portfolio associated with our leadership role in space sensing and superiority. Each advancement adds to breadth and future growth vectors and we are investing and delivering products to capture it.

該項授標金額使積壓訂單增加14億美元，並支持我們與海軍的合作延續至2032年。此外，在我們受限太空（restricted space）投資組合中，憑藉我們在太空感測與太空優勢方面的領導地位，我們贏得多項具競爭性的策略性授標。每一項進展都擴大了我們的布局與未來成長向量，我們正持續投資並交付產品以把握這些機會。

We deploy capital with discipline, investing first to profitably grow and meet our customers' needs. In the last three months, we've opened or expanded facilities in Utah, Maryland, Arizona, and Florida, adding over 1 million square feet of manufacturing and engineering space and creating more than 2,000 new jobs at these sites.

我們以嚴謹的方式配置資本，優先投資於能夠帶來獲利性成長並滿足客戶需求的領域。在過去三個月，我們在猶他州、馬里蘭州、亞利桑那州與佛羅里達州新建或擴建設施，新增超過100萬平方英尺的製造與工程空間，並在這些據點創造超過2,000個新職缺。

These investments support key customer priorities, including the accelerated production of the B-21 Raider, increased capacity for solid rocket motors and hypersonic propulsion systems, advanced space systems design and manufacturing, and aircraft design and manufacturing. Each is a continuation of our strategy to invest and perform. Today, our investments have provided the capacity necessary to deliver durable growth as we expand our product offerings and capacity.

這些投資支援客戶的關鍵優先事項，包括加速B-21 Raider的生產、提升固體火箭發動機與高超音速推進系統的產能、先進太空系統的設計與製造，以及飛機的設計與製造。每一項都是我們「投資並交付成果」策略的延續。如今，我們的投資已提供必要產能，使我們在擴大產品供給與產能的同時，能夠實現持久的成長。

Staying ahead of tomorrow's threats takes leadership in technology. And this quarter, we extended that leadership in several areas. In aeronautics, Talon Blue completed its first fully autonomous flight with the aircraft handling taxiing, takeoff, flight maneuvers, and landing on its own. Designed and built in 24 months, Talon Blue demonstrates how we're accelerating modular design with manufacturing innovations to deliver real results with speed.

要領先因應明日的威脅，需要在科技上展現領導力。而在本季，我們在多個領域延伸了這項領導地位。在航太方面，Talon Blue 完成了首次全自主飛行，飛機可自行完成滑行、起飛、飛行機動與降落。Talon Blue 在 24 個月內完成設計與製造，展現我們如何透過製造創新加速模組化設計，以更快速度交付實質成果。

After this successful test flight, we use Talon Blue to rapidly test and mature new autonomous capabilities, moving them into the field faster and at lower cost. Building on seven decades of autonomous leadership, we expect this product line to be a competitive entry in a market with clear growing demand signals, both in the US and internationally.

在這次成功的試飛之後，我們將運用 Talon Blue 快速測試並成熟新的自主能力，以更快速度、並以更低成本將其導入實地應用。在七十年的自主技術領導基礎上，我們預期這條產品線將成為一個具競爭力的市場切入點；該市場在美國及國際上皆呈現明確且持續成長的需求訊號。

We also introduced FORTITUDE, a significant advancement in microelectronics technology. This single chip. The size of a grain of rice, uses patented technology to deliver up to three times the power and 20 times the signal quality of comparable solutions in the market today. It can replace dozens of individual components while reducing the weight and power demands of the system it serves.

我們也推出了 FORTITUDE，這是微電子技術上的一項重大進展。這顆單一晶片。大小如一粒米，採用專利技術，可提供最高達現今市場同類解決方案三倍的功率與 20 倍的訊號品質。它可取代數十個獨立元件，同時降低其所服務系統的重量與功耗需求。

It's a capability with broad application from radar to GPS. Electronic warfare, and future 6G networks, and we're building it for both defense and commercial applications. FORTITUDE is just one example of our unmatched microelectronics capability. For more than a decade, we've leveraged our expertise in cutting-edge semiconductors and our secure US foundries to pioneer leading quantum computing technologies.

這項能力具備廣泛應用，涵蓋從雷達到 GPS、電子戰，以及未來 6G 網路；我們正同時為國防與商用應用打造它。FORTITUDE 只是我們無可匹敵的微電子能力的一個例子。十多年來，我們運用在尖端半導體方面的專業與我們安全的美國晶圓廠，率先開創領先的量子運算技術。

Today, we see a significant opportunity to scale this transformative technology for commercial and government customers. To fully realize its potential, we are actively evaluating strategic alternatives and believe we are uniquely positioned to lead in this field. We'll share more details on our approach to scale this capability in the coming months.

今天，我們看到一個重大機會，可將這項具變革性的技術擴大規模，服務商業與政府客戶。為了充分實現其潛力，我們正積極評估策略性替代方案，並相信我們具備獨特優勢，能在此領域領先。未來幾個月，我們將分享更多關於擴大此項能力規模的方法細節。

Turning to the budget and starting with the US. We remain optimistic about the strong bipartisan support in Congress for national security. We are operating under continuing resolution and we're hopeful that an agreement for appropriations will be reached in the coming months. We understand how to navigate this environment and we've done so effectively in the past. Importantly, our portfolio includes a set of prioritized growth drivers firmly anchored in the US-base budget request, including full coverage of our Prime program and solid support across the rest of our business.

接著談預算，先從美國開始。我們對國會兩黨對國家安全的強力支持仍保持樂觀。我們目前在持續決議（continuing resolution）下運作，並希望未來幾個月能就撥款達成協議。我們了解如何在此環境中因應，且過去也曾有效做到。重要的是，我們的產品組合包含一系列優先的成長驅動因素，並牢牢錨定於美國基礎預算（base budget）申請之中，包括對我們主承包（Prime）計畫的完整涵蓋，以及對其餘業務的穩健支持。

As a result, we believe we're relatively insulated from incremental funding uncertainty, leaving us well-positioned and confident in our outlook. Globally, we continue to witness unprecedented levels of demand for defense capabilities. Allied defense budgets are in the midst of a multiyear secular upswing, and we are responding by providing a range of ready-now capabilities, including munitions, missile defense, sensors, as well as crewed and uncrewed aircraft. These demand signals give us confidence in our goal to double international sales by 2031.

因此，我們相信相較之下，我們較能免受新增資金不確定性的影響，使我們處於有利位置，並對展望充滿信心。在全球範圍內，我們持續見證對國防能力前所未有的需求水準。盟國國防預算正處於多年期的結構性上升趨勢中；我們正以提供一系列可立即部署的能力來回應，包括彈藥、飛彈防禦、感測器，以及有人與無人航空器。這些需求訊號讓我們對在 2031 年前將國際銷售額翻倍的目標充滿信心。

In closing, I'm proud of our team and our ability to execute and innovate with speed. This quarter extended our reputation for driving performance through a strategy fundamentally aligned to our customer's highest priorities. For decades, Northrop Grumman has been solving the world's most difficult challenges, including those that require staying ahead of advanced and evolving adversaries. While we continue to adapt and innovate, the core of our advantage is in the technology leadership and our portfolio that underpins deterrence and power projection. We will continue to deliver unmatched capabilities that serve to protect the United States and our allies around the world. That is why I'm excited about our future and confident in our performance trajectory in the years ahead. Now, I'll turn it over to John for a review of our quarterly results and updated guidance. John?

最後，我為我們的團隊以及我們以速度執行與創新的能力感到自豪。本季進一步鞏固了我們的聲譽：透過一項與客戶最高優先事項根本一致的策略來推動績效。數十年來，諾斯洛普·格魯曼一直在解決世界上最艱難的挑戰，包括那些需要領先先進且不斷演進對手的挑戰。在我們持續調整與創新的同時，我們優勢的核心在於技術領導力，以及支撐嚇阻與兵力投射的產品組合。我們將持續交付無可匹敵的能力，以保護美國及其全球盟友。這也是我對我們的未來感到振奮，並對未來數年的績效走勢充滿信心的原因。現在，我把時間交給 John，請他回顧我們的季度業績與更新後的指引。John？

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our third-quarter financial results as shown on slide 4. Momentum continues to build throughout our portfolio. As Kathy shared, backlog increased 20% to $110 billion compared to the third quarter of last year, driven by bookings of over $16 billion. This performance reflects a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 for the quarter and 1.45 on a year-to-date basis.

謝謝你，Kathy，各位早安。我將從投影片 4 所示的第三季財務結果開始。我們的產品組合整體動能持續增強。如 Kathy 所分享，受超過 160 億美元訂單（bookings）帶動，積壓訂單（backlog）較去年第三季增加 20%，達到 1,100 億美元。此表現反映本季訂單出貨比（book-to-bill）為 1.5，年初至今則為 1.45。

Key awards in the quarter include $4.6 billion on restricted programs, an additional $2 billion on Sentinel and three additional E-2D production aircraft for $1 billion. Third quarter sales were $11.1 billion, up 7% year over year, driven by higher sales at all four segments.

本季主要得標包括：受限計畫（restricted programs）46 億美元、Sentinel 額外 20 億美元，以及三架額外的 E-2D 量產飛機（production aircraft）合計 10 億美元。第三季銷售額為 111 億美元，年增 7%，主要由四個事業部門銷售成長所帶動。

Operating performance was outstanding. Segment operating income grew 5% with a margin rate of 12.1%. From a year-over-year comparison standpoint, the prior year benefited from a favorable $68 million EAC adjustment at MS. Earnings per share increased to $7.89, up 3%, driven by higher top-line, segment operating income expansion, and additional tax benefits. Capital expenditures were $306 million, reflecting continued investment in our business to enable long-term profitable growth.

營運表現非常出色。事業部門營業利益成長 5%，營業利益率為 12.1%。就年對年比較而言，去年受益於 MS 部門 6,800 萬美元的有利 EAC（完工估計）調整。每股盈餘增至 7.89 美元，成長 3%，主要由營收成長、事業部門營業利益率擴張，以及額外的稅務利益所帶動。資本支出為 3.06 億美元，反映我們持續投資業務，以支持長期的獲利性成長。

And adjusted free cash flow was $1.8 billion in the period. Up over 40% compared to the prior year, driven by improvements in working capital and $371 million of proceeds from the sale of a test asset on the B-21 program. Overall, it was an outstanding quarter of disciplined program execution that demonstrated the strength of our portfolio.

本期調整後自由現金流為 18 億美元。較去年同期成長超過 40%，主要由營運資金改善，以及出售 B-21 計畫一項測試資產所取得的 3.71 億美元款項所帶動。整體而言，這是一個在嚴謹的計畫執行下表現卓越的季度，展現了我們產品組合的實力。

Moving to segment performance, starting with Aeronautics on slide 5. Continues to fire on all cylinders with backlog, sales, and operating income all up meaningfully from the prior year. Sales increased by 14% driven by higher production volumes and sustainment volumes on the F-35 program. We're also seeing higher volumes in our strike portfolio driven by the continued ramp on B-21 and higher sustainment sales on the B-2 program.

接著看各事業部門表現，先從投影片 5 的航太部門開始。積壓訂單、銷售額與營業利益皆較去年顯著成長，持續全面發力。銷售額成長 14%，主要由 F-35 計畫的更高生產量與維持量（sustainment volumes）所帶動。我們也看到打擊（strike）產品組合的量增加，主要由 B-21 持續爬坡，以及 B-2 計畫更高的維持銷售所驅動。

Operating margins improved to 10.5%, enabled by product mix and disciplined program execution throughout the portfolio. Defense Systems third-quarter sales accelerated to $2.3 billion, up 12% compared to the prior year. Higher sales were driven by continued ramp on Sentinel as well as higher volumes on tactical solid rocket-motor programs.

營業利益率提升至 10.5%，受惠於產品組合與全產品線嚴謹的計畫執行。國防系統部門第三季銷售額加速至 23 億美元，較去年成長 12%。銷售成長主要由 Sentinel 持續爬坡，以及戰術固體火箭發動機（tactical solid rocket-motor）計畫的更高出貨量所帶動。

Operating income increased to $250 million with third quarter segment operating margin rate of 10.8% supported by good execution on tactical missile programs. Mission Systems delivered another quarter of exceptional bottom-line performance. Sales increased 2% primarily due to the ramp up on restricted airborne radar programs and higher volumes on marine systems.

營業利益增加至 2.5 億美元，第三季事業部門營業利益率為 10.8%，並受到戰術飛彈計畫良好執行的支持。任務系統部門再度交出一季卓越的獲利表現。銷售額成長 2%，主要由受限的機載雷達計畫爬坡，以及海事系統出貨量增加所帶動。

[Segment operating income] was outstanding at 15.8%, driven by continued excellent portfolio execution. And at Space, sales increased by 2%, driven by strength on national security programs, including restricted efforts and GPI, partially offset by timing of revenue on the commercial resupply service contract. Margins improved to 11.3%, including stable performance on GEM63 XL. We resumed delivery of Rocket Motors in the third quarter.

[事業部門營業利益]表現非常出色，達到 15.8%，主要由持續優異的產品組合執行所帶動。在太空部門，銷售額成長 2%，受國家安全計畫的強勁表現帶動，包括受限專案與 GPI；部分被商業補給服務合約收入認列時點所抵銷。利潤率提升至 11.3%，其中包含 GEM63 XL 的穩定表現。我們在第三季恢復交付火箭發動機（Rocket Motors）。

Turning to earnings per share on slide 9. Third-quarter diluted EPS was $7.89, up 3% compared to the prior year. Strong segment operating performance and tax benefits were partially offset by lower returns on marketable securities. The improvement in the third-quarter effective tax rate was driven by the recognition of higher research credits. These past two quarters have reflected ongoing efforts to optimize our tax positions both federally and at the state level. We'll continue to assess our positions in future periods and expect the cash benefits associated with these efforts to land over the next several years.

接著看第 9 頁投影片的每股盈餘。第三季稀釋後 EPS 為 7.89 美元，較去年同期成長 3%。各事業部門強勁的營運表現與稅務利益，部分被可供出售有價證券報酬較低所抵銷。第三季有效稅率的改善，主要來自認列較高的研發抵減額。過去兩季反映了我們持續努力在聯邦與州層級優化稅務立場。我們將在未來期間持續評估相關立場，並預期與這些努力相關的現金效益將在未來數年內逐步實現。

Moving to company-level guidance on slide 10, we continue to expect full-year sales of $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion. Similar to last year, we expect higher fourth-quarter sales throughout the portfolio, driven by production throughput, material volumes, and normal seasonality. We expect continued strong awards in the fourth quarter and a full-year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.3.

接著看第 10 頁投影片的公司層級指引，我們仍預期全年銷售額為 437.5 億至 442.5 億美元。與去年類似，我們預期第四季整體產品組合的銷售將走高，主要受產能吞吐、材料出貨量以及正常季節性所帶動。我們預期第四季將持續取得強勁得標，且全年接單出貨比（book-to-bill）至少為 1.3。

Due to continued strong operating performance throughout the portfolio and our confidence in the fourth quarter, we are increasing the midpoint of our segment operating income by $65 million. The updated guidance range of $4.94 billion to $5.04 billion reflect a full-year segment operating margin rate of approximately 11.3% at the midpoint. We are increasing EPS guidance by $0.70, driven by higher segment performance and a lower tax rate, partially offset by higher corporate unallocated cost and interest expense, and we are maintaining our adjusted free cash flow guidance at $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion for the year.

由於整體產品組合持續展現強勁的營運表現，且我們對第四季具信心，我們將事業部門營業利益的中位數上調 6,500 萬美元。更新後的指引區間為 49.4 億至 50.4 億美元，按中位數計算，對應全年事業部門營業利益率約 11.3%。我們將 EPS 指引上調 0.70 美元，主要由較佳的事業部門表現與較低稅率帶動，但部分被較高的公司未分攤成本與利息費用所抵銷；同時，我們維持全年調整後自由現金流指引在 31 億至 35 億美元。

Turning to segment-level guidance on slide 11, we are reaffirming our sales guidance at all segments. For operating income, we are increasing our guidance at AS to high 9% and at MS to mid-15% due to their excellent program execution. Collectively, this implies a fourth-quarter segment operating margin rate of mid-to-high 11%, driven by production mix and continued strong operating performance.

接著看第 11 頁投影片的事業部門層級指引，我們重申所有事業部門的銷售指引不變。在營業利益方面，由於其卓越的專案執行，我們將 AS 的指引上調至高個位數百分比，並將 MS 的指引上調至 15% 左右的中段水準。綜合而言，這意味著第四季事業部門營業利益率約在 11% 的中高段，主要由生產組合與持續強勁的營運表現所帶動。

Before concluding my prepared remarks, I'll take a few moments to build on Kathy's comments regarding our 2027 outlook. Given the strong support for our key programs and the enduring global demand for our capabilities, we continue to expect robust sales growth next year and well into the next decade. For 2027, we project sales growth between 5% and 7% representing further acceleration from the growth expected this year with higher sales in all four segments. Beyond 2027, we are confident that sales growth will continue to accelerate.

在結束我事先準備的發言之前，我想花幾分鐘延伸 Kathy 對我們 2027 年展望的評論。鑑於關鍵專案獲得強力支持，以及全球對我們能力的長期需求，我們仍預期明年以及未來十年都將有強勁的銷售成長。就 2027 年而言，我們預估銷售成長介於 5% 至 7%，相較今年預期的成長進一步加速，且四個事業部門的銷售皆將提高。在 2027 年之後，我們有信心銷售成長將持續加速。

We expect segment operating income will grow faster than sales with 10 to 20 basis points of margin expansion beyond the current 2026 guidance midpoint. Capital expenditures continue to be projected at 4.5% of sales as we build out the capacity to support a higher B-21 production rate. In total, we expect approximately $2.1 billion in 2027 CapEx. We also expect a 2027 adjusted free cash flow in the range of $3.3 billion to $3.7 billion. Relative to the previous outlook, higher capital intensity for B-21 acceleration is being offset with stronger operating performance, disciplined working capital management, and cash tax optimization.

我們預期事業部門營業利益的成長將快於銷售，且相較目前 2026 年指引中位數，利潤率將再擴張 10 至 20 個基點。資本支出仍預估為銷售額的 4.5%，以擴建產能來支援更高的 B-21 生產速率。合計而言，我們預期 2027 年資本支出約為 21 億美元。我們也預期 2027 年調整後自由現金流介於 33 億至 37 億美元。相較先前展望，B-21 加速帶來較高的資本密集度，將由更強的營運表現、嚴謹的營運資金管理，以及現金稅負最佳化所抵銷。

In closing, the results in the outlook we've discussed today are not the product of a single quarter, but the output of the strategy that Kathy described at the onset of the call. That strategy is translating directly into our financial results and it provides a visible runway for durable long-term growth. We expect that growth to come with expanding margins driven by strong program execution, cost efficiency, growing international sales, and a mix shift toward more production as our development programs mature.

最後總結，我們今天討論的成果與展望並非單一季度的產物，而是 Kathy 在電話會議一開始所描述策略的輸出。該策略正直接反映在我們的財務結果上，並為可持續的長期成長提供清晰可見的跑道。我們預期這樣的成長將伴隨利潤率擴張，動能來自強勁的專案執行、成本效率、國際銷售成長，以及隨著研發型專案逐步成熟而轉向更多量產的組合變化。

Our pairing intentional strategy and the combination of accelerating growth, expanding margins, and capital discipline underpins our confidence in the years ahead. Lastly, we'll continue to be guided by our consistent, balanced, and disciplined capital allocation priorities, which drive value to our shareholders through strategic investments in our business and shareholder distributions.

我們有意識的策略組合，以及成長加速、利潤率擴張與資本紀律的結合，支撐了我們對未來數年的信心。最後，我們將持續遵循一貫、均衡且嚴謹的資本配置優先順序，透過對業務的策略性投資以及對股東的回饋，為股東創造價值。

With that, let's open the call for Q&A.

接下來，我們開放問答。

(Operator Instructions) Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

(接線員指示) Morgan Stanley 的 Kristine Liwag。

Hey, good morning, everyone, Kathy, John, and Randy. I guess, Kathy and John, you previously talked about acceleration and growth in 2028. But I think when we think about the potential range of outcomes in 2027, can you just give us an understanding of what drives the low end versus the high end of your outlook? And also, with this meaningful step up in 2028 of acceleration, what are the key operating milestones or potential enablers that could potentially bring forward some of this 2028 growth into 2027, is that a possibility?

嗨，大家早安，Kathy、John 和 Randy。我想，Kathy 和 John，你們先前談到 2028 年的加速與成長。但當我們思考 2027 年可能的結果區間時，能否請你們說明一下，是什麼因素驅動展望區間的低端與高端？另外，隨著 2028 年這個顯著的加速躍升，有哪些關鍵的營運里程碑或可能的促成因素，可能把部分 2028 年的成長提前到 2027 年？這有可能嗎？

Hey, Kristine, good morning. It's good to hear your voice. So let me phrase '27 this way and I'm going to move it back to '26 and talk about our execution here this year. We talked about in the last quarter that we're building momentum. And what you saw in this quarter building momentum, and that momentum continues into 2027.

嗨，Kristine，早安。很高興聽到你的聲音。我先用這樣的方式談 2027 年，並把時間拉回到 2026 年，談談我們今年的執行。我們在上一季提到我們正在累積動能。而你在本季看到的就是動能的累積，且這股動能會延續到 2027 年。

So as we pulled the guide together for 2027, we considered a number of factors, certainly, the strong backlog that we have, the great execution, the placement of our programs in the national defense priorities, all giving us confidence that we're going to be able to execute strongly into '27 and out beyond into 2028.

因此，在我們彙整 2027 年指引時，我們考量了多項因素：當然包括我們強勁的在手訂單、出色的執行力、以及我們專案在國防優先事項中的定位；這些都讓我們有信心能在 2027 年以及之後延伸到 2028 年持續強勁執行。

So the low end reflects, frankly, where we are in the budgeting cycle for ourselves. So we've got some more work to do internally to get greater level of confidence. The high end reflects our belief that we're going to continue to execute very, very strongly and be able to deliver great outcomes for our customers.

低端反映的是，坦白說，我們目前所處的預算編列週期狀態。因此我們內部還有一些工作要做，以建立更高程度的信心。高端則反映我們相信自己將持續非常、非常強勁地執行，並能為客戶交付優異成果。

So it's probably a little bit wider than you would like. And I hear the read in terms of '28, what can we pull in? Certainly, we've got some marquee programs, B-21, Sentinel, and the multi-year programs that we're all working on. So 5% to 7% is where we are today. And in our fourth-quarter call, we'll tighten that range and if there's some more upside on it, we'll certainly share.

所以這個區間可能比你希望的還要寬一些。我也理解你對 2028 年的解讀：有哪些可以提前拉進來？當然，我們有一些旗艦專案，包括 B-21、Sentinel，以及我們正在推進的多年期專案。因此目前我們給出的仍是 5% 到 7%。在第四季電話會議上，我們會收斂這個區間；如果還有更多上行空間，我們一定會分享。

Great, thank you. And on as a follow-up, Kathy on FORTITUDE, you called out your microelectronics the size of a grain of rice, delivering three times the power and 20 times the signal quality of comparable solutions. It's also particularly interesting that you called out the commercial opportunity for this product. So first, can you give us more context on how differentiated this technology is and how we should think about the growth opportunity for Northrop Grumman for this kind of defense and commercial CAM?

很好，謝謝。另外追問一下，Kathy，關於 FORTITUDE，你提到你們的微電子元件只有一粒米大小，卻能提供同類解決方案三倍的功率與二十倍的訊號品質。你也特別提到這項產品的商用機會，這點很有意思。所以首先，你能否提供更多背景，說明這項技術的差異化程度，以及我們應如何看待這類國防與商用 CAM 對諾斯洛普格魯曼的成長機會？

Thanks, Christine. So as we have for decades been at the forefront of microelectronics technology, we've largely focused that technology development on miniaturized processing power. I've talked before about having the most powerful chip in terms of processing speed and that geared toward military applications has meant that in very small form factors that are power efficient, we are able to deliver extreme processing capability.

謝謝你，Christine。因此，數十年來我們一直站在微電子技術的最前沿，我們在很大程度上將技術發展聚焦於微型化的運算處理能力。我之前談過，就處理速度而言擁有最強大的晶片，而這種以軍事應用為導向的發展意味著：在非常小的外形尺寸且具備高能效的條件下，我們能夠提供極致的運算能力。

We recognize that there is commercial applications for those underlying technologies as well. And with FORTITUDE, and I also mentioned quantum technology, we are sitting on patents that have relevance outside of the defense space. So we have been doing a strategic review of our microelectronics capability and looking at how do we bring some of these out to a more both defense. We're not straying from our defense core, but also commercial applications for this underlying technology in our business.

我們也認知到，這些底層技術同樣具有商業應用。而透過 FORTITUDE，以及我也提到的量子技術，我們手上握有在國防領域之外同樣具相關性的專利。因此，我們一直在對自身的微電子能力進行策略性檢視，並思考如何把其中一些能力推向更廣泛的領域——既包含國防。我們不會偏離國防核心，但也會在業務中探索這些底層技術的商業應用。

So we are optimistic about what that could look like. We are doing some strategic reviews. FORTITUDE clearly is mature technology. Quantum is progressing towards some very important technical milestones in the next couple of years, but we see both of them as addressing very large both defense and commercial.

所以我們對其可能呈現的樣貌感到樂觀。我們正在進行一些策略性檢視。FORTITUDE 顯然是成熟技術。量子技術在未來幾年正朝著一些非常重要的技術里程碑推進，但我們認為兩者都能對應非常龐大的市場——無論是國防或商業。

Great. Thank you very much.

很好。非常感謝。

John Godden, Citi.

Citi 的 John Godden。

Hey, thank you for taking my question. I also wanted to just ask for a little bit more color on the 2027 comments. This quarter we saw relative strength in aeronautics and defense systems. While mission systems in space lagged. I know you're going to give segment detail later on, but just in terms of the shape, when we're thinking about the drivers of '27, are the leading segments accelerating further? Are the laggards sort of snapping back a bit? Any color you can give us just to give us a little bit of a better sense would be helpful.

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。我也想就你們對 2027 年的評論再多了解一些細節。本季我們看到航空與國防系統相對強勁。而任務系統與太空則相對落後。我知道你們稍後會提供分部細節，但就整體走勢而言，當我們思考 2027 年的驅動因素時，領先的分部是否會進一步加速？落後的分部是否會有些回升？任何你們能提供的補充說明，都有助於我們更好地掌握。

Sure, John. So all four segments, we will see positive year-over-year growth, so we expect that growth to come from both new programs as well as backlog. And certainly our two leading franchise in terms of growth will be DS. It's approaching 10% this year. We expect AS continued growth on the back of B-21. And then Mission Systems, certainly that program or that business has generated year-over-year growth on average somewhere between [3% and 5%]. We're going to continue to take a look at that and see if that can be accelerated. And in space, this year, it's been we're looking at relatively muted growth. We expect next year to accelerate a bit from where we are this year. So hopefully, that's helpful.

當然可以，John。我們預期四個分部都會呈現年對年正成長，因此我們預期成長將同時來自新專案以及積壓訂單。而就成長而言，我們兩個領先的主力分部將是 DS，今年接近 10%。我們預期 AS 在 B-21 的帶動下持續成長。接著是任務系統（Mission Systems），該專案或該業務年對年平均成長大約在 [3% 到 5%] 之間。我們會持續檢視，看看是否能加速。至於太空，今年我們看到相對溫和的成長。我們預期明年會比今年的水準加速一些。希望這些資訊有幫助。

Yeah, that's great. And just sort of similar question on the margins improving comment, any puts and takes or leaders and laggers that you'd call out just as we're trying to visualize the upcoming year?

有的，這很棒。另外關於你提到毛利率改善的評論，是否有什麼拉抬與拖累因素，或是領先與落後的分部可以點出來？我們想更具體地想像明年的情況。

AS had really strong margins this year. So as B-21 becomes a larger percent of sales. We're going to certainly expect that program to deliver continued profitability. But certainly, as that becomes a larger percent of sales, that will put some level of basis-points pressure on the AS margin.

AS 今年的利潤率非常強。因此，隨著 B-21 在銷售中的占比提高，我們當然預期該專案將持續帶來獲利能力。但同時，隨著其占比提高，也會對 AS 的利潤率帶來一定程度的基點壓力。

DS, we expect strong execution, but we have a similar situation with Sentinel, but also growing international sales and program execution that will be helpful. Space, relatively consistent margins. And then MS, it's been a banner year in terms of execution there. So we're looking to see if we can repeat that. But where we are today is likely on the upper end, and I would expect that to fall in a bit.

DS 方面，我們預期執行表現強勁，但在 Sentinel 上也有類似情況；不過國際銷售成長以及專案執行將帶來助益。太空方面，利潤率相對一致。至於 MS，今年在執行面可說是表現亮眼的一年。我們會看看能否複製這樣的表現。但以目前的水準來看，可能已接近上緣，我預期會略為回落一些。

And just one other point on overall margins. We're still early in the planning process here. So the takeaway should be that we're early. We've got strong program performance, we're going to have a slight contract mix shift. And then relative to Kathy's comments on Quantum, we haven't included any specific investment dollars for Quantum yet. What we're trying to do is work out the strategic alternatives and make sure we can maximize shareholder value in whatever way we take that initiative.

另外再補充一點關於整體利潤率。我們目前仍處於規劃流程的早期階段。所以重點應該是：我們還在早期。我們有強勁的專案績效，合約組合也會有些微轉移。此外，呼應 Kathy 對量子（Quantum）的評論，我們尚未把任何量子相關的特定投資金額納入。我們正在做的是釐清策略替代方案，並確保無論以何種方式推動該倡議，都能最大化股東價值。

Great. Appreciate the color.

很好。感謝補充說明。

Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ronald Epstein。

Good morning, everyone. Can you speak a little bit to the ramp on B-21? You're ramping up production by what, 25%? How that's going?

各位早安。可以談談 B-21 的產能爬坡嗎？你們把產量提高了大概 25%？進展如何？

Thanks for the question. As you know, it is a ramp that will happen over time. We will be investing in that acceleration capacity over the next couple of years and then expect to see the translation into higher volumes later in the decade. We of course are ramping beyond production as well. We have sustainment starting to come into the program. We also have modernization that is ongoing in the program.

謝謝你的提問。如你所知，這是一個會隨時間逐步完成的爬坡。我們將在未來幾年投資於加速產能，並預期在本十年後期轉化為更高的產量。當然，我們的爬坡不僅限於生產。我們也開始把維持支援（sustainment）納入該專案。此外，該專案也持續進行現代化（modernization）。

So as we've talked about top-line drivers for the B-21, it is beyond that production acceleration to other elements of the full-program lifecycle support. But as you pointed to the capacity expansion, that really starts to take effect once we get through the large part of the facilitization, which is through 2028.

因此，正如我們談到 B-21 的營收驅動因素，它不僅是生產加速，還包括完整專案生命週期支援的其他要素。但就你提到的產能擴張而言，真正開始發揮效果是在我們完成大部分設施建置（facilitization）之後，也就是到 2028 年為止。

And then maybe as a follow-on B-21, a question we frequently get from [Investors Day], how should they think about potential risk of another charge in the future around the fixed price, low rate, initial protection funds?

接著延伸 B-21 的問題，我們在 [投資人日] 常被問到：對於固定價格、低速率初始生產（LRIP）相關的保護資金，未來是否可能再發生一次費用提列（charge）的風險，投資人應該如何看待？

The program is performing very well. We are continuing to progress through tests, and as we are testing the aircraft, it is performing against our key performance parameters such that the largest risk in any development program, which is that you would find discoveries late. And particularly the later you get in tests, we are knocking down that risk with each progressing day and test milestone that is successful.

該專案目前執行得非常好。我們持續推進測試；而在測試飛機的過程中，其表現符合我們的關鍵性能參數，因此在任何研發專案中最大的風險——也就是在後期才發現問題——尤其是越接近測試後期，我們會隨著每一天的推進與每一個成功的測試里程碑，逐步降低這項風險。

We also are working our way through the production learning curve. And so again, there each and every day that we perform, we are improving our performance cadence and retiring risk. It is not without risk because we still have a ways to go, clearly in production of our remaining LRIP units. But our confidence continues to grow in the team's ability to execute on that program.

我們也正在走過生產學習曲線。因此同樣地，每一天的執行都在提升我們的生產節奏並消除風險。這並非毫無風險，因為我們在剩餘 LRIP 單位的生產上顯然仍有一段路要走。但我們對團隊執行該專案的能力信心持續提升。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Hi, good morning. Kathy, just to be more explicit, when you talk about the strategic review for the foundry business, are you suggesting you might sell it or spin it? Or is there a broader landscape of strategic alternatives than just those two outcomes?

嗨，早安。Kathy，我想更明確地問：當你談到對晶圓代工（foundry）業務進行策略性檢視時，你是在暗示可能出售或分拆嗎？還是說策略替代方案的範圍比這兩種結果更廣？

It's a broader landscape, clearly to the degree that we and others see value in that business. We could continue to solely invest in it ourselves with the support of our current shareholders. We could think about broadening that base of investment, or we could think, as you noted, about separating the business. All of those options are on the table and certainly the degree to which we do that and the timing are all the things that we would be taking under advisement here in the coming months.

這是一個更廣闊的版圖，顯然在我們以及其他人都看見該業務價值的程度上。在現有股東的支持下，我們可以繼續僅由自己投資。我們也可以考慮擴大投資基礎，或者如你所提到的，考慮將該業務分拆。所有這些選項都在檯面上，而我們在未來幾個月將就我們採取行動的程度與時點等事項審慎評估並納入考量。

Can you quantify at all what the size of the investment might be required if you were to go it alone?

如果你們選擇單打獨鬥，你能否量化一下可能需要的投資規模？

It would be premature to do that. It -- because it depends on how quickly we want to scale to particular technical milestones and our appetite for that. So we really shared this with you today to just give you the broader purview of what is happening in our microelectronics business with several technologies like the RQL, which is our unique advantage in Quantum. It stands for Reciprocal Quantum Logic, and it's an ultra-efficient superconducting chip technology. And as we said, we believe it has applicability not only for us to scale a quantum computer, but that others might also be able to leverage this technology. So that's what we are exploring.

現在就這麼做還為時過早。因為這取決於我們希望以多快的速度擴張到特定的技術里程碑，以及我們對此的承受意願。所以我們今天與各位分享，主要是為了讓你們更廣泛地了解我們微電子業務正在發生的事情，其中包含多項技術，例如 RQL，這是我們在量子領域的獨特優勢。RQL 是 Reciprocal Quantum Logic（互易量子邏輯）的縮寫，是一種超高效率的超導晶片技術。正如我們所說，我們相信它不僅可用於我們擴大量子電腦，也可能讓其他人能夠運用這項技術。因此這正是我們正在探索的方向。

Okay. And then, John, when the B-21 charges were first booked, I believe the expectation on cash timing was that 60% of the cash impact would hit by or before 2026. I think the remaining 40% was 2027 or later. Is that still the rough cadence and timing expectation for those cash losses or is that moved at all?

好的。接著，John，當 B-21 的費用最初入帳時，我記得對現金時點的預期是：60% 的現金影響會在 2026 年或之前發生。我想剩下的 40% 會在 2027 年或更晚。對於這些現金損失的節奏與時點預期，現在仍大致如此嗎？還是有任何變動？

Yeah, so the way to think about that is on the loss burn down and what we've said is about $100 million a quarter is what will typically burn down. This quarter, the number happened to be $70 million, so you can just do the math on that to have a better estimate of the cash impact.

是的，所以可以這樣理解：就虧損消耗（loss burn down）而言，我們先前說過通常每季大約會消耗約 1 億美元。本季這個數字剛好是 7,000 萬美元，所以你可以用這個去做簡單的推算，以更好地估計現金影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu，Jefferies。

Good morning, Kathy. John, thank you so much. I thought the slide was super helpful in terms of the program funding that highlights the base request funding for almost 70% of the portfolio, and the 5% to 7% growth for 2027. How do you think about the major drivers of that 5% to 7% and I guess where areas of potential acceleration that might move the needle as you suggested potentially for 2028 growth?

早安，Kathy。John，非常感謝。我覺得那張投影片非常有幫助，尤其是在計畫資金方面，突顯了將近 70% 的投資組合有基礎需求（base request）資金，以及 2027 年 5% 到 7% 的成長。你如何看待這 5% 到 7% 的主要驅動因素？另外，你提到可能在 2028 年帶動成長的加速領域，哪些可能會真正產生影響？

Sheila, certainly the programs that we outlined on that chart are key drivers of growth, areas like B-21, Sentinel, our support to shipbuilding. And in addition, things that are not fully represented on the chart, like our weapons portfolio scaling into new Munitions Acceleration Council weapons where we have not been a key provider, but we now are entering into contracts to become a key provider, those would scale over the course of 2027.

Sheila，當然，我們在那張圖表上列出的計畫是成長的關鍵驅動因素，例如 B-21、Sentinel，以及我們對造船的支援。此外，還有一些在圖表上未完全呈現的部分，例如我們武器產品組合擴張到新的「彈藥加速委員會」（Munitions Acceleration Council）武器項目；在這些項目上我們過去並非主要供應商，但現在正透過簽訂合約進入並成為主要供應商，這些將在 2027 年期間逐步放量。

International is obviously not represented on this chart. It's meant to be a US-based budget analysis, but International is also a key driver of acceleration of our growth in 2027 and beyond. And International, as always, is more difficult to pin down in terms of exact timing for getting under contract. So it becomes the driver of question as to how much of that falls into '27 and how much falls more into 2028.

國際業務顯然沒有在這張圖表中呈現。這張圖表旨在做美國本土預算分析，但國際業務同樣是推動我們在 2027 年及之後加速成長的關鍵因素。而國際業務一如既往，在合約簽訂的確切時點上更難精準掌握。因此就會出現一個問題：其中有多少會落在 2027 年，有多少會更多落在 2028 年。

And then the other area that isn't as significantly called out on this chart, but we expect to be a key growth driver is our restricted Space portfolio. About two-thirds of our Space portfolio falls into the category of National Security Space and both the base budget and the reconciliation package has pretty significant increases that could drive further growth.

另外一個在這張圖表上沒有那麼明顯點出的領域，但我們預期會是關鍵成長驅動因素的是我們受限（restricted）的太空產品組合。我們太空產品組合約三分之二屬於國家安全太空（National Security Space）範疇，而無論是基礎預算或協調（reconciliation）方案，都有相當顯著的增加，可能推動進一步成長。

So when you think about what will drive us towards the bottom end versus the top end of our growth range for 2027, it's the rate at which we get these areas on contract and can scale our production. It's the rate at which international contracts are awarded and begin to have a meaningful impact in 2027. And probably most importantly, is the level of appropriations and the timing of appropriations, the amount of time we stay in a continuing resolution certainly could impact 2027. But the point being, we expect acceleration throughout the year with further acceleration into 2028.

因此，當你思考 2027 年我們成長區間會落在下緣還是上緣時，關鍵在於我們以多快的速度讓這些領域進入合約並擴大產能。也在於國際合約授予的速度，以及它們在 2027 年開始產生實質影響的速度。而且可能最重要的是，撥款（appropriations）的水準與撥款時點；我們在持續決議（continuing resolution）下停留的時間長短，確實可能影響 2027 年。但重點是，我們預期全年會逐步加速，並在 2028 年進一步加速。

That's super helpful. And maybe Kathy, if I could follow-up to that, the Weapons portfolio, Solid Rocket Motors is about 8% of the mix, 75% funded. So how do we think about that Solid Rocket Motor opportunity setting sourcing? What's the potential size of that business?

這非常有幫助。Kathy，如果我可以就此追問一下，武器產品組合中，固體火箭發動機（Solid Rocket Motors）約占 8% 的比重，且 75% 已獲資金支持。那我們該如何看待固體火箭發動機的機會與供應來源布局？這項業務的潛在規模有多大？

Yeah. So we've talked before about having approximately $1 billion of work in that area today. And we are looking at not only scaling off of that [$1 billion], because we are seeing growth in quantities for the contracts where we already are performing. But we are entering into agreements to become a component provider, most notably Solid Rocket Motors, but I should mention fuses, warheads, nozzles are all also part of our component offering mix. And as we enter into those new agreements, that will become the primary growth driver for us in '27 and beyond. But '27 will be a ramping year on all of those contracts as they start out small and then we progress towards the minimum guaranteed quantities and work to secure even more of that work going forward.

是的。我們之前談過，目前在該領域大約有 10 億美元的工作量。我們不僅在此基礎上擴張（以這約 10 億美元為基礎），因為我們看到我們已在履約的合約，其採購數量正在增加。同時我們也正簽訂協議，成為零組件供應商，其中最值得一提的是固體火箭發動機；但我也要補充，保險絲（fuses）、彈頭（warheads）、噴嘴（nozzles）也都屬於我們零組件供應組合的一部分。隨著我們進入這些新的協議，這將成為我們在 2027 年及之後的主要成長驅動因素。不過 2027 年將是這些合約的爬坡年，因為一開始規模較小，之後我們會逐步達到最低保證數量（minimum guaranteed quantities），並努力在未來爭取更多工作量。

Maggie Schooley, Redburn Atlantic.

Maggie Schooley，Redburn Atlantic。

Good morning. Thank you for taking the call. I wanted to ask about Talon Blue. You mentioned it recently had its first fully autonomous flight, and I was wondering if you could provide any more details on how Prism, the mission software system, is performing and particularly how the interoperability with others at third-party autonomy systems is working. So any color on that would be very helpful. Thank you.

早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想問 Talon Blue。你提到它最近完成了首次全自主飛行，我想知道你是否能提供更多細節，說明任務軟體系統 Prism 的表現如何，特別是它與第三方自主系統的互通性（interoperability）運作得如何。如果能提供一些補充說明會非常有幫助。謝謝。

Absolutely. So Talon is an investment that we've made both in the platform, which is Talon Blue, and in the systems that control the CCAs and associated platforms. And that's what we call Talon IQ. And Maggie, your question goes largely to Talon IQ, which has demonstrated through tasks the ability to interoperate with other companies' autonomous software and to integrate that software, we're working with about half a dozen companies who have come into our testbed and done cooperative integration projects with us.

當然可以。Talon 是我們在平台（也就是 Talon Blue）以及控制 CCA 與相關平台的系統方面所做的投資。我們把那套系統稱為 Talon IQ。Maggie，你的問題主要是在問 Talon IQ；它已透過多項任務展示了與其他公司自主軟體互通的能力，並能整合那些軟體。我們正與大約半打公司合作，他們已進入我們的測試平台（testbed），並與我們進行協同整合專案。

We also, through that testbed, have demonstrated the ability to control other platforms. So those milestones have been proven and demonstrated. And it's the combination of a platform that allows us to do this testing and the testbed itself that allows us to de-risk integration and work with partners. That really is creating the optionality for us to work with multiple US customers on, defining their requirements for the next generation of collaborative combat aircraft and with international partners as well.

此外，透過該測試平台，我們也已展示控制其他平台的能力。因此這些里程碑都已被驗證並展示。而能夠進行這些測試的平台本身，加上測試平台（testbed）本體，使我們得以降低整合風險並與合作夥伴共同作業。這確實為我們創造了彈性選擇，使我們能與多個美國客戶合作，定義下一代協同作戰航空器的需求，也能與國際夥伴合作。

Thank you. That's very helpful.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

Seth Seifman，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

Hey, thanks very much, and good morning. I want to ask John, maybe just starting off on the cash flow, if you could help us a little bit. In thinking about the drivers, they're moving from '26 to '27, the growth of a couple hundred million, but there's the headwind from the payment for the test article this year and then the broader increase in CapEx. We can see the growth and the drop on that growth and that provides a portion of it, but if you could quantify the other pieces perhaps?

嗨，非常感謝，早安。我想問 John，或許先從現金流開始，看看你能否幫我們釐清一下。在思考驅動因素時，它們從 26 年到 27 年移動，成長了幾億美元，但今年有支付測試件（test article）的逆風，另外資本支出（CapEx）也更廣泛地增加。我們看得到成長以及該成長的下滑，這解釋了其中一部分，但你能否量化其他部分呢？

Sure. Sure. So cash flow is actually quite a good story this year. So in the third quarter, we're up about $550 million. Year to date, we're up $900 million. So good performance year to date. In the fourth quarter, we expect a meaningful step up in the level of CapEx to support some of the key initiatives, including B-21. So you can think about the fourth quarter CapEx to be approaching $1 billion.

當然。當然。所以今年的現金流其實是一個相當好的故事。所以在第三季，我們增加了大約 5.5 億美元。年初至今，我們增加了 9 億美元。所以年初至今表現不錯。在第四季，我們預期資本支出水準會有顯著上升，以支持一些關鍵計畫，包括 B-21。你可以把第四季的資本支出想成接近 10 億美元。

And then as we look at 2027 and beyond, really, what's driving it is program execution. So sales growth, margin, consistent margin with some level margin expansion, tax optimization, working capital optimization, and then we're going to continue to be disciplined, the allocation of our CapEx dollars.

接著當我們看 2027 年及之後，真正的驅動因素是計畫執行。也就是銷售成長、利潤率（margin）、在維持一致利潤率的同時有一定程度的利潤率擴張、稅務最佳化、營運資金最佳化，然後我們也會持續保持紀律，來配置我們的資本支出資金。

So I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we do expect another step up of CapEx to about $2.1 billion, and that's to be able to invest in the infrastructure to deliver key programs for our customers. So overall, building cash momentum on the back of strong sales and execution from a margin perspective and discipline capital allocation and working capital management.

所以我在事先準備的發言中提到，我們確實預期資本支出會再上一步到約 21 億美元，這是為了投資基礎設施，以交付客戶的關鍵計畫。所以整體而言，是在強勁銷售與執行（就利潤率角度）之下建立現金動能，並且保持資本配置與營運資金管理的紀律。

Okay, great, great. Thanks. And then maybe just a follow-up, if you can help out a little bit in terms of where we are on the Sentinel program, it looks like you've achieved a lot of the development of the missile. And I've thought about the missile as ramping in production more in the next decade. And so in terms of the activity at the company between now and late in the 2020s, is that primarily related to infrastructure and C2 in terms of incremental growth and how to think about the magnitude of that incremental growth, that percentage of sales that you guys hopefully put on the slide, does that increase in the coming years?

好的，很好，很好。謝謝。接著或許再追問一下，如果你能協助說明一下 Sentinel 計畫目前的進度，看起來你們已經完成了飛彈相當多的研發。而我一直認為飛彈的量產會在下一個十年才更明顯地爬坡。所以就公司在現在到 2020 年代後期之間的活動而言，增量成長主要是與基礎設施以及 C2（指揮與控制）相關嗎？以及該增量成長的幅度該如何思考？你們希望在投影片上呈現的那個占銷售額百分比，未來幾年會提高嗎？

So, over the next several years, we will continue to execute the development program and there will be aspects of all three lines of effort, which include the missile itself. We'll be continuing the integration as we demonstrated that first vertical stack and taking that through a rigorous test campaign. We will also be continuing design work on the launch facilities. Think of that as the infrastructure part of the program, the building out of the missile silos and the command centers. And then the third component of the program is command and control, and that's all the systems that integrate and allow the government to operate the system.

所以，在接下來幾年，我們會持續執行研發計畫，三條工作主軸都會有相關內容，其中包括飛彈本體。我們會持續整合工作；正如我們展示了第一次垂直堆疊（vertical stack），並將其推進到嚴謹的測試活動。我們也會持續進行發射設施的設計工作。你可以把那視為計畫的基礎設施部分，也就是建置飛彈發射井與指揮中心。而計畫的第三個組成部分是指揮與控制，這包含所有用來整合並讓政府能操作該系統的系統。

So all three of those work streams have continued development work over the next several years leading into an integrated test campaign. At the same time, toward the end of the decade, will begin looking at ramping production on all aspects of the program. So the missile itself, as well as the infrastructure will begin to deploy those capabilities and scale them. And that is something that we're really excited about. And yet our focus in these next several years will be on completing the development program.

因此，這三條工作流在接下來幾年都會持續進行研發工作，並導向整合測試活動。同時，在本十年末期，我們將開始著手評估在計畫各個面向的量產爬坡。所以不只是飛彈本體，基礎設施也會開始部署這些能力並擴大規模。這是我們非常期待的。不過在接下來這幾年，我們的重點會放在完成研發計畫。

Great, and so does that, is that a 7%-ish -- think of that, sales percentage through the development portion kind of remaining fairly consistent, or is that growing at above the company pace?

很好，那麼那個大約 7% 左右——可以把它想成在研發階段期間的銷售占比大致維持相當一致，還是說它的成長速度高於公司整體步調？

It's been growing above the company pace modestly, and we expect that it will be in the same range around the company growth rate or a little above.

它一直以略高於公司整體步調的速度成長，而我們預期它會落在相同區間，大約與公司成長率相當或略高一些。

Great. Thanks for the call.

很好。謝謝這通電話會議。

Of course.

當然。

Anthony Valentini, Barclays.

Anthony Valentini，巴克萊（Barclays）。

Kathy, I'm curious what you're most excited about in the portfolio that's outside of B-21 and Sentinel? And then obviously like the classified stuff that you can't talk about.

Kathy，我很好奇，在 B-21 和 Sentinel 之外，你在投資組合中最讓你興奮的是什麼？當然也包括那些你不能談的機密項目。

You're asking me to pick amongst a lot of favored children, but today, really what we wanted to highlight is some of the microelectronics technology that we are bringing out of what we would call deeper research and development work into ready for commercialization. And so we talked about FORTITUDE as a new product line. We've talked about Quantum, and I think many people don't recognize that our company has that strong category of microelectronics expertise because we have largely directed it toward government application.

你是在要我在許多偏愛的孩子之中做選擇，但今天我們真正想強調的是一些微電子技術：我們正把它們從我們所稱更深層的研發工作，推進到可商業化的階段。因此我們談到了 FORTITUDE 作為一條新的產品線。我們也談到了量子（Quantum），而我想很多人沒有意識到我們公司在微電子方面有很強的專業類別，因為我們過去主要把它導向政府應用。

Our government customers are very open now to us taking that technology, working it into a commercial ecosystem, and then in commercial terms, selling it back to the government. I can't under emphasize how important that is and it's an opportunity that as a company we are going to take advantage of in complete partnership with the government. But do it in a way that also opens up access to commercial markets that before we did not have as strong as an opportunity to pursue because of the restricted nature of the work we were doing. So to me, that's the biggest change that we are sharing with you today and something that I'm quite excited about.

我們的政府客戶現在非常開放，讓我們把那項技術帶入商業生態系，然後以商業模式再賣回給政府。我再怎麼強調其重要性都不為過；這是一個機會，我們公司將在與政府完全夥伴合作的前提下加以把握。但我們也會以一種方式來做，讓我們能進入商業市場；在過去，由於我們所做工作的限制性，我們並沒有那麼強的機會去追求這些市場。所以對我而言，這是我們今天與各位分享的最大改變，也是我相當興奮的一件事。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

Noah Poponak，高盛（Goldman Sachs）。

Apologies if this is some combination of splitting hairs or obvious, but just want to make sure I'm using the right definitions and understanding the outlook correctly. So with the outlook for 2027 organic revenue growth, 5% to 7% and then further acceleration in 2028, just want to make sure that the literal interpretation of that is 8% or more growth in 2028 as opposed to just meaning that it's up again. And then, John, you didn't specify you're not guiding '29 or '30, but you made comments along the lines of sustainability of acceleration into the next decade. Should we be thinking about 8% or more 2029, 2030, or is that reading what you're saying too much?

如果這聽起來像是在吹毛求疵或很明顯，先致歉，但我只是想確認我使用了正確的定義並正確理解展望。所以就 2027 年有機營收成長 5% 到 7% 的展望，以及 2028 年進一步加速，我想確認字面上的解讀是：2028 年成長 8% 或更高，而不只是表示它又再上升。另外，John，你沒有具體給出 29 或 30 年的指引，但你提到類似於加速可延續到下一個十年的說法。我們是否應該把 2029、2030 年也想成 8% 或更高？還是我對你所說的解讀過度了？

Noah, this is Kathy. I'll start and then John can add in. We are suggesting that a 5% to 7% growth rate next year would accelerate, meaning be higher in '28 than we experienced in '27. I'm not sure I would jump all the way to 8%. We're not going to guide a specific number for 2028. But to answer your question directly, we are saying that we expect the growth rate in '28 to be higher than it is in '27.

Noah，我是 Kathy。我先回答，然後 John 可以補充。我們的意思是，明年的 5% 到 7% 成長率會加速，也就是 28 年的成長率會高於 27 年的表現。我不確定我會直接跳到 8%。我們不會對 2028 年提供一個具體數字的指引。但直接回答你的問題：我們是說，我們預期 28 年的成長率會高於 27 年。

There is potential for further acceleration beyond that. But of course, the further out you go, the more dependent that is on factors that today we didn't cover. We see strong visibility through contracts we have through the backlog we have today through that '28 period.

在此之外仍有進一步加速的潛力。但當然，時間拉得越長，越取決於一些我們今天未涵蓋的因素。透過我們目前的合約與現有在手訂單（backlog），我們對到 2028 年這段期間有很強的可視性。

Just to give you a little bit of insight there, as we have done in the past, we share that our backlog burn down tends to be weighted towards the later part of our planning horizon. So for 2027, we expect about 35% of our backlog to burn down over the next 12 months, another 55% over the following 24 months, leaving the remainder past 36 months. And when you think of it in that way, a backlog today is more robust and durable than what we would typically experience, which is why it gives us that strong visibility to talk multiple years out. So hopefully that gives you some good insight.

再給你一點補充說明，如同我們過去所做的，我們分享一下：我們的在手訂單消化（backlog burn down）通常會偏向規劃期後段。因此，針對 2027 年，我們預期約 35% 的在手訂單會在未來 12 個月內消化，另外 55% 會在接下來 24 個月內消化，剩餘部分則在 36 個月之後。用這種方式來看，今天的在手訂單比我們一般經驗更為穩健且更具持久性，這也是為什麼它讓我們能有很強的可視性去談論未來多年的情況。希望這能給你一些不錯的洞見。

That's super helpful. I appreciate it. And then, Kathy, I guess the margins in the quarter are strong, and the margin outlook you're providing is discussed with confidence. But the margins have been a little bit choppy over the last few years. I guess maybe a level setting on what's been behind that. How should we be thinking about the extent to which the items that have driven margin headwind in recent periods are behind you versus. Still have some risk?

這非常有幫助。謝謝你。接著，Kathy，我想本季的利潤率表現很強，而你所提供的利潤率展望也談得很有信心。但過去幾年利潤率有些起伏。我想也許可以先釐清一下背後的原因。我們應該如何看待：近期造成利潤率逆風的因素，有多少已經過去、多少仍然存在一些風險？

I really look at it with the mix of our portfolio in mind. Whenever we have a high concentration of development work, that carries a higher risk profile, and it's why margins tend to be lower on development programs. And we can't always predict that. So you see a little bit of choppiness, right, taking earnings adjustments as a result of discovery in development.

我主要是從我們投資組合的組成（mix）來看。每當我們的開發工作占比很高時，風險輪廓就會更高，這也是為什麼開發專案的利潤率往往較低。而這點我們不一定能總是預測得到。因此你會看到一些起伏，對吧，因為在開發過程中發現問題而進行獲利調整。

As our portfolio has progressed and will continue to progress very notably over the remainder of this decade toward more production, we tend to see less variation. And fewer EAC adjustments and therefore higher margin performance. So it's that dimension of our portfolio that is really worth thinking through. We've talked and given numbers about how we expect that cost plus, which is in some way synonymous with development contracts shifting to fixed price over the next several years. But it's a pretty material shift that we are expecting that de-risks the portfolio.

隨著我們的投資組合已經推進、並且在本十年剩餘期間將非常明顯地持續朝向更多量產（production）發展，我們通常會看到較少的波動。EAC（完工估計）調整也會更少，因此利潤率表現會更高。所以，這就是我們投資組合中非常值得深入思考的一個面向。我們也談過並提供過數字，說明我們預期未來幾年成本加成（cost plus）（某種程度上可視為開發合約的同義）將轉向固定價格（fixed price）。但我們預期這會是相當重大的轉變，能降低投資組合的風險。

I appreciate the color. Thank you.

謝謝你提供的補充說明。謝謝。

Of course.

不客氣。

Hey, Josh, I think we have time for one more question.

嗨，Josh，我想我們還有時間再問最後一題。

Michael Ciarmolim, Guggenheim Securities.

Michael Ciarmolim，Guggenheim Securities。

Maybe, Kathy. You talked earlier about Talon Blue, that's been in the news, but can you talk more broadly maybe about your kind of overall CCA strategy? It seems like we've got increment one, it's moving a bit slower. You've got Talon Blue, but then you've also got the MUX TACAIR program. So what are the overall expectations? I mean, do you envision being a significant player in that market? Do we have to wait more for increment two and some of the follow-on directives and orders from the Air Force or maybe just some color there?

也許問一下，Kathy。你先前提到 Talon Blue，最近也有新聞報導，但你能否更廣泛地談談你們整體的 CCA 策略？看起來我們有第一階段（increment one），進度慢了一點。你們有 Talon Blue，但同時也有 MUX TACAIR 計畫。那整體的預期是什麼？我的意思是，你們是否設想在那個市場成為重要的參與者？我們是否必須再等第二階段（increment two），以及空軍後續的一些指示與訂單，或是你能否提供一些補充說明？

Yeah. We aren't waiting for direction, but we are engaging with all of our customers to utilize the expertise we have. As I've talked about before, we put over 500,000 flight hours of experience with unmanned systems, more than anyone that I'm aware of in the world. And so as a result, we're bringing that skill set to bear in two ways. One is in how an architecture of CCAs can work and integrate. And I talked earlier in response to Maggie's question about how Talon IQ is doing that, not just for us, but for other companies who are developing autonomy software and command and control.

是的。我們不是在等待指示，但我們正與所有客戶互動，運用我們所具備的專業能力。如我之前提過，我們在無人系統方面累積了超過 50 萬飛行小時的經驗，比我所知的全球任何單位都多。因此，我們正以兩種方式運用這套能力。其一是 CCA 的架構如何運作並完成整合。我先前回應 Maggie 的問題時也提到 Talon IQ 如何做到這點，不僅是為了我們自己，也為其他正在開發自主軟體以及指揮與控制的公司。

And then for the platform itself, we are working to drive toward affordability and scaled manufacturing because we know that's going to be important to deliver affordable mass. We think that is going to be true across all customers, the services domestically and our international customers. So those are our goals for our product line, and we are demonstrating capability so that customers can see the art of the possible.

另外就平台本身而言，我們正努力推動可負擔性與規模化製造，因為我們知道要交付可負擔的規模化數量（affordable mass），這會很重要。我們認為這對所有客戶都會成立，包括國內各軍種以及我們的國際客戶。因此，這些就是我們產品線的目標；我們也在展示能力，讓客戶能看到「可能做到的樣貌」。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on microelectronics. Would a potential direct investment from Office of Strategic Capital or Department of War be on the table there or is truly everything, any and all options on the table?

了解。這很有幫助。接著快速追問一下微電子。策略資本辦公室（Office of Strategic Capital）或戰爭部（Department of War）的潛在直接投資，是否也可能納入考量？還是說真的所有選項、任何選項都在考慮範圍內？

Everything is on the table. We believe there is such a strong commercial application for this that we are not wanting to be overly dependent on any government, particularly the US government in this case, but all options are on the table.

所有選項都在考慮範圍內。我們相信這項技術有非常強的商業應用，因此我們不希望過度依賴任何政府，特別是在這個案例中是美國政府；但總之，所有選項都在桌面上。

Helpful. Thanks, guys.

有幫助。謝謝各位。

Thanks, Josh. I'd like to turn the call back to Kathy to close, please.

謝謝你，Josh。接下來我想把電話交回給 Kathy 做結語，謝謝。

All right. Thanks, Randy, and thanks to all of you for joining us. I just want to end by saying it's a really exciting time at Northrop Grumman. We are seeing a sustained and robust global demand cycle, and our team is stepping up and responding to that. We also see application for leading technologies that we have for broader applications to support shareholder value and to deliver new innovation to our customers. And so you heard us talk about several examples of that today. I look forward to following up with all of you following this call so we can share some more insights. Thanks for joining us.

好的。謝謝你，Randy，也謝謝各位加入我們。我最後想說的是，對 Northrop Grumman 而言，這真的是一個令人振奮的時刻。我們看到全球需求循環持續且強勁，而我們的團隊正挺身而出並做出回應。我們也看到我們所擁有的領先技術可應用於更廣泛的場景，以支持股東價值並為客戶帶來新的創新。因此，今天你也聽到我們談到幾個相關例子。我期待在本次電話會議後與各位進一步交流，以便分享更多洞見。謝謝各位參與。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。各位女士先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。