Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Noah Holdings Limited fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings conference call.

(Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Doreen Chiu. Please go ahead.

Thank you, [Rocco]. Good morning and welcome to Noah Holdings' fourth-quarter, full-year 2025 earnings conference call.

Joining me on the call today are Ms. Nora Wand, Co-Founder and Chair Lady; Mr. Zander Yin, the Co-Founder, Director, and CEO; and Mr. Grant Pan, the CFO.

Mr. Yin will begin with an overview of our recent business highlights and strategic developments; followed by Mr. Pan, who will review our financial and operational results. After management's prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in such statements.

Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those described in our public filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Noah undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

Without further ado, I would now turn the call over to Mr. Yin. Please go ahead. Thank you.

(spoken in foreign language)

Good day to everyone. Thank you for joining us today.

2026 marks the 21st year since Noah was established. In a market environment defined by continuous evolution and restructuring, our strategic direction has never been clear.

We remain firmly focused on serving global Chinese high net worth and ultra-high net worth clients, operating through licensed local entities to provide compliance, long-term wealth management services across multiple jurisdictions.

More importantly, we are completing a critical transformation, evolving from a wealth management institution, primarily driven by product sales, into a comprehensive platform centered on asset allocation, global structuring, and AI systems.

In 2025, this transformation began to yield tangible operating results. This is not merely a temporary business adjustments but the fundamental reconstruction of our operating model.

For Noah, 2025 represents an important milestone. Looking at our full-year results (technical difficulty) emerge. (inaudible) quality of our profitability is improving at a faster pace than the stabilization of our revenue structure.

For the full year, net revenues were RMB2.6 billion, broadly flat, year over year. However, operating profit was RMB777 million revenue, up 22.5% year over year, with operating margin improving to 29.8% and non-GAAP net income increasing 11.2% year over year to RMB612 million. Excluding the impact of non-operating items, adjusted non-GAAP net income was approximately RMB753 million.

What matters most at this stage is not the absolute scale of our profitability but the improving underlying structure. This profit growth was not driven by one-off factors but by optimized cost structure, enhanced operating efficiency, and the ongoing shift in revenue mix towards estimate related businesses.

This reflects how our profitability is shifting from cyclical volatility towards structural stability. This is a qualitative change, not simply quantitative growth.

From a business perspective, while our Domestic and Overseas business segments are moving at different paces, they are fully in the same direction. Investment capabilities are becoming the primary growth engine.

Net revenues from our Overseas Wealth Management business were RMB550 million in 2025, down 18.8% year over year, mainly due to a decline in share of products distribution revenue. However, overseas AUM grew to USD9.5 billion, up 8.6%, year over year.

Notably, transaction value of US dollar-denominated private secondary products tripled over year to USD950 million. The number of overseas registered clients approach 20,000 (inaudible) 13.2% year over year; of which, active client exceeded 6,200, up 12.4%, year over year.

Net revenues from Olive, the Overseas Asset Management business, was RMB550 million for the full year, up 26.3% year over year, mainly driven by higher management fees resulting from AUM growth.

Overseas AUM reached USD6.1 billion, up nearly 4% year over year, accounted for 30% of total AUM.

Net revenues from Glory Family Heritage, our Integrated Services business, were RMB180 million for the full year, up 28.8%, year over year.

Despite a highly competitive market environment, we achieved breakthroughs in sales for new channels.

Domestically, the sales recovery in the Asia market helped improve our performance. RMB-denominated private secondary products maintained gross momentum from the second quarter onwards, which helped partially offset the impact of the (inaudible) management fees from maturing RMB-denominated private equity products.

Noah Upright, our Domestic Public Securities business, recorded net revenue of RMB570 million in 2025, up 15.9% year over year, with transaction value for RMB-denominated private secondary products reaching RMB 11.2 billion or 107.2%, year over year.

Gopher, our Domestic Asset Management business, recorded net revenues of RMB690 million for the full year, down 10.3% year over year, mainly due to lower management fees resulting from sharing RMB-dominated private equity products.

In the primary market, Gopher completed RMB5 billion of private equity asset exits and distribution in 2025.

Glory, our Domestic Insurance business, recorded net revenues of RMB19 million for the full year, down 56.5%, year over year. The decline in revenue was expected and aligned with our planned and ongoing strategic transformation.

Overall, our performance clearly shows a business shifting towards investment and asset allocation capabilities. It is this long-term vision that has systematically rebuilt our overall structure over the past few years.

What we have accomplished is not simply business of expansion but a fundamental reconstruction of our operating model. Today, we are building a global wealth management operational system composed of three core platforms, all operating under a unified management framework.

ARK served as the client onboarding and execution platform. With licenses in Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States, it operates compliantly within local regulatory framework. ARK is responsible for account management. trade execution, product distribution, and AI wealth advisory services, providing clients globally with a consistent, seamless, and compliant experience.

Olive served as our investment and asset management platform across Hong Kong, the United States, Singapore, Japan, and Canada. It has the capabilities source global assets; establish and manage funds across multiple jurisdictions; and execute long-term asset allocation strategy. It is a key foundational piece for our long-term value creation and revenue stability.

Glory served as our asset structuring and risk management platform covering major markets, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States. It offers insurance, trust, and identity-planning services that deliver risk isolation and asset protection through structuring solutions and supports the long-term transfer of (inaudible) wealth .

Supporting these three core platforms is our (inaudible) compliance architecture, anchored by our four major booking centers:

[Shanghai firm] as an [effective] client onboarding hub for RMB asset allocation: Noah Upright Fund Distribution and Gopher Asset Management.

Hong Kong functions as the cross-border connector for securities and insurance, serving as the bridge between China and global markets.

Singapore is our center for overseas asset allocation and family structuring; and our primary pilot region for AI wealth management.

The United States serves as a key hub for [BCP] and capital markets activity. In particular, our investment capabilities in the technology sector are an important contributor to future revenue growth and innovation.

I want to emphasize that all booking centers are independently operated by locally licensed entities and conduct business within their respective regulatory framework. Cross-regional collaboration is primarily limited to research and information support, with no direct cross-jurisdiction business activities. This strict compliance foundry is the institutional foundation for our steady growth.

The gradual (inaudible) (technical difficulty).

Headcount declined by 11% year over year, while revenue remained stable, reflecting improving operational efficiencies. Over the long term, AI brings much more an improved operational efficiency. It is also reconstructing how we operate.

By embedding AI into key areas, such as client engagement, content generation, and operational processes, we have established a (inaudible) machine collaborative operational-driven model in certain regions. This reflects our transition away from headcount expansion to systems that drive both scale and service quality.

Looking ahead to 2026, we will remain prudent but highly focused on our clear strategic direction. While revenue is still fluctuating to structural adjustments, the proportion of investment-related income is expected to rise, as profit margins remain stable or improving gradually.

Furthermore, our AI capabilities will evolve beyond system efficiency gains and scale into broader operational validation.

We are still in the midst of our transformation. But the logic behind our long-term operational model is stronger than ever. At its core, this transformation is not about changing product form or expanding services. It's about fundamentally reconstructing what drives our growth.

Historically, our industry has relied heavily on the individual capability of relationship managers. Today, we are building a human-machine collaborative operational-driven model centered on asset allocation, where AI (inaudible) relationship managers in our global platforms and refine their capabilities.

2025 marks the starting point of this model, where we gradually reflect (inaudible) in our operating results. The transformation is ongoing. But our strategic direction is firmly set.

We will continue to execute the long-term strategy prudent and compliantly.

Thank you. I will now hand the time over to CFO Grant to review our financial performance in more detail.

Thank you, Zander. Good morning, everyone, for the comprehensive strategic overview. Good day to everyone who joined us today.

I would like to focus on two key financial messages:

First, 2025 delivered strong operating profit growth and structural margin expansion, driven by a clear shift in our revenue mix. Investment-related income increased significantly during the year, while we deliberately reduced our reliance on insurance-related revenue. This reflects our continued transition towards a more investment-led business model, with improving earnings quality and great margin resilience.

Second, the Board has approved our dividend proposal, including a special dividend, bringing total payout to 100% on of full-year non-GAAP net income for the third consecutive year. This reinforces the consistency and visibility of our shareholder return policy.

Together, these developments underscore our transition towards a more investment-driven, globally diversified, and resilient operating model.

For the full-year 2025, net revenue was RMB2.6 billion, broadly stable, year over year.

Operating profit increased to RMB777 million, representing growth of 22.5%. Operating margin expanded to 29.8% compared with 24.4% in the prior year.

Non-GAAP net income reached RMB612 million up 11.2%, year over year.

This improvement was primarily driven by structural cost optimization and enhanced operating efficiency, rather than short-term factors.

In the fourth quarter, revenue was RMB733 million, up 12.5%, year over year.

Operating profit reached RMB258 million, representing a significant increase of 87.3%. Operating margin expanded further to 35.2%.

This reflects strong operating leverage, as performance-based income is starting to materialize, supported by a more scalable and disciplined operating structure.

During the year, we continued to optimize our revenue structure. Investment products commissions increased by 79.7% year over year and performance-based income rose by 78%. At the same time, overseas revenue contribution increased to 49% of total net revenue.

This shift towards investment-driven and globally diversified revenue streams has enhanced earnings quality and supported structural margin expansion.

To provide a clearer view of our core performances, I would like to address two non-operational items that affected our reported fourth-quarter GAAP results:

First, under income from equity in affiliates, we recorded a loss of approximately RMB120 million. This was primarily driven by mark-to-market accounting adjustments related to share price volatility of a specific listed investment.

It's important to emphasize that this represents accounting reflection of market movements and does not impact our core wealth management operations.

Second, regarding the legacy [camps] in credit fund arrangements, several cases reached procedural milestones this quarter, as certain clients opted for arbitration. In line with our prudent financial policy, we recognize contingent expenses of approximately RMB50 million.

Total provisions now stand at RMB505 million, representing about 63% of the unsettled principle. Based on current benchmarks and the progress of these cases, we believe the existing provision level is appropriate and covers a substantial portion of the potential exposure. Based on the information currently available, we do not anticipate significant additional provisions.

If we exclude these two non-operational items, adjusted full-year non-GAAP net income would have been approximately RMB753 million, which we believe more accurately reflect our underlying operational efficiencies.

In terms of balance sheet, as of December 31, 2025, cash and short-term investments totaled RMB5.0 billion. The asset liability ratio stood at 15%. The company carries zero, no interest-bearing debt. Our current ratio was 4.5 times. This debt restructure provides strong financial flexibility and reinforce the resilience of the balance sheet.

From a financial perspective, our AI strategy is centered on productivity enhancement, rather than heavy capital expense. We are already seeing measurable results in our cost structure.

In 2025, total headcount decreased by 11% year over year, when net revenue remained stable at RMB2.6 billion. This indicates a meaningful increase in output per capita.

AI-driven tools now support a substantial portion of client engagement, automated reporting, and routine workflow tasks that previously required a lot of manual intervention.

In our view, AI functions as a structural efficiency multiplier. It enables us to scale global operations, while maintaining disciplined cost control and consistent service quality.

As of year end, shareholders' equity stood at about RMB9.9 billion. At our current market capitalization, the company is trading at roughly 0.57 times book value, with operating return on equity close to 8%.

When market valuation may fluctuate, our focus remains on building long-term intrinsic value through disciplined execution and continued global expansion. Our strong cash position and operating cash flow provide both confidence and flexibility to deliver attractive and sustainable shareholder returns across market cycles.

Driven by a solid performance and healthy liquidity position, the Board has approved a total dividend of RMB612 million, equal to 100% of 2025 non-GAAP net income. This consists of 50% regular dividend and a 50% special dividend. Subject to shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM, this will mark our third consecutive year of full payout.

At current market prices, the implied dividend yield is approximately 11%. including the RMB50 million in share repurchase completed in 2025, total cash return yield reached approximately 12%. This payout is fully supported by our core operations and strong balance sheet. It represents approximately about 80% of operating profit and is covered multiple times by RMB5.0 billion in cash and short-term investments.

In short, we're rewarding shareholders for their trust, while maintaining a fortress balance sheet that supports our continued global growth.

In summary, revenue remained resilient throughout the year, as we executed a deliberate shift towards more investment-driven income stream. At the same time, operating profit delivered strong double-digit growth, supported by structural margin expansion and continued improvements in efficiency.

Our AI initiatives are now translating into tangible productivity gains, strengthening our operating leverage and scalability.

Our industry-leading capital return policy, highlighted by 100% payout and the introduction of special dividends, also reflects both operational strength and confidence in the sustainability of model.

With these foundations firmly in place, Noah has emerged leaner, more efficient, and structurally stronger. We remain fully committed to disciplined execution and the creation of sustainable long-term shareholder value.

Thank you. We will now open the floor for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Helen Li, UBS.

(interpreted)

I have two questions.

The first question is on private credit. How much in third-party private credit product has Noah distributed today? Have you seen any client redemption in this area? How do you assess the overall risk profile of this product?

One area of concern in the private credit market has been potential disruptions from AI, given that a meaningful portion of the underlying portfolio companies are software firm.

Noah maintains their investment (inaudible) in Silicon Valley. How much direct investments or co-investments does Noah currently have in our private credit space? What percentage of the underlying assets are software companies? What percentage of those could potentially be vulnerable to AI disruption -- human disruptions? How do you view the risk in this segment?

My second question is on transaction value and one-time commission. In the fourth quarter, one-time commission declined sharply, year on year. Looking more closely at transaction value, both domestic and overseas insurance products sales weaken significantly. How do you see the run rate trend heading into '26?

Amidst the recent capital market pullback, how has client element towards investment products evolve? Are clients adopting the risk of (inaudible) and redoing their allocation to investment products? Finally, what's the current health (inaudible) in terms of the investment strategy for the reminder of this year?

(spoken in foreign language)

Let me do the translation here.

First of all, we must emphasize that the company doesn't run any (inaudible) asset that is related to the product that Helen just mentioned. What we've been doing at Silicon Valley is mainly invested with -- or partner with some key major name. That's their [PE] product or in some (inaudible).

That's why we don't see a much impact of our business because when we review the AUA here, those assets are only representing a low-single-digit amount of our AUA.

The company has been -- have a concern on the related asset class at a very early stage. That's why we have been advising our clients to have a property position in a very early stage.

(spoken in foreign language)

Regarding the second question, on our commission -- because we must emphasize that, being in the Wealth Management business, we are not a single-product sales written business. But we've been trying to provide safe and structural services for our clients.

Yes. We do see the drop in insurance sales that we also believe (inaudible) because a lot of our existing clients, they have already had enough coverage from insurance products. That's why, when we've been reviewing our business under Glory, what we've been emphasizing is that we are providing a global solution to our clients but not just selling single insurance products.

Regarding the investment incentive among our clients, we don't see any drop in demand. We understand that that's reaching the market. However, we actually see clients -- they have a very high interest in investing in the wealth, particularly in AI-related products.

We will still keep an eye on that and do the right advice to the client.

(spoken in foreign language)

Thank you, Chair Lady.

What we wanted to emphasize that is that Noah, the company, has (inaudible) established for many years. We have substantial experience in handling different types of economic cycles.

For the recent situation, we were talking about this PE risk in those alternative investment (inaudible) related to social media assetsm. We can use an example from (technical difficulty) product.

We look at it as -- under all the normal criteria, the return should be 5%. Now, it's over 93%, which is -- we have seen this situation in China -- in Mainland China -- before, where -- that's why we've been taking early position to advise our clients, depends on the risk appetite, whether they would prefer to have more midterm risk appetite or they are more risk reserve.

Now, we've been taking advice in the earlier stage. Since the beginning of this month, we are advising our [RMs] to talk to different clients, depends on their asset allocation and, also, their risk appetite.

We believe that our clients experience is still a very prudent situation. We don't see any effect (inaudible) at the moment.

(spoken in foreign language)

As we mentioned about our experiences within the Mainland market, we also -- one of our advantage or strength is that we know Chinese high net worths and these families charateristic; and what they (inaudible) wanted to and how they would like to treat the investment portfolio.

That's why we've been strictly choosing or strictly been allocating which PE we should go to. That's why, from the very beginning, the company has been providing a rather more suitable (inaudible) to what our clients need, when selling these type of products.

(spoken in foreign language)

Regarding your second question about our sales and insurance products, I think we do admit that, in the past, the company is a more product-driven selling company, which -- when the investment product is very welcoming -- all the insurance product is very welcoming, then it becomes the key driver of the company's growth.

However, what we want to emphasize is, today, we have formed our global freelance systems. As what CEO mentioned in his speech, we have (inaudible) Glory. We are forming this platform, the ecosystem, being a wealth management company that we are providing total solutions.

Now, it's not about what to sell but about how to help our clients to do the wealth management. We are now providing plan.

Just for example: If they have enough protection from insurance product, then what we may do is more about, could be the (inaudible) planning; could be providing trust services. It's about wealth management being, as a whole.

With the support of AI, we firmly believe that we now have a very firm structure and (inaudible) more enabled to perform better being a wealth management company, which -- that's why our simple answer. It's hard to just direct answer to say what level of interest product will be a lead or not. It is not the focus anymore.

[Calvin Leon], Citi.

(interpreted)

This is Calvin from Citi.

My first question is about AI. Can management share your strategy and the investment on AI, going forward? How would this be reflected in Noah's operating or financial metrics?

My second question is on shareholder return. Noah has maintained a high payout ratio in 2025. Looking ahead, what is the plan and considerations on payout ratio and share buyback?

(spoken in foreign language)

Let me do a translation here.

We must emphasize that we invest AI not because this is (inaudible) pop again; that is the trend, currently. But it's really about how it's been able to enhance the efficiency of the company. I

n the past, with our analysts, when they review our business model, they may use a method to count how many RMs we hire and then, just do a multiple and believe that that is a growth engine.

However, under the AI-enhanced system, we believe that the -- right now, it's not about how many people we hire.

Take Singapore offices, for example, we've been adopting this AI method for nine months now. What we see is our human resources dropped. But, at the same time, AUM has increased by 3 times in the past nine months.

It's about efficiency. It's about quality that we've been able to deliver to our clients.

Apart from that, with the AI in mind, we may also able to further develop our business by reaching to the [AM] on the multifamily office business so that we've been able to provide a system to work with this independent third-party channel, just like what we've done under Glory, with high -- different commission-based broker to do the insurance business since the second quarter last year.

To answer your question, maybe. Currently, it's not about if we've been able to use a financial indicator to show the efficiency or a really quantitative return from using AI. However, we believe that the one key factor you can look at is, how many clients we've been able to cover.

The company has a record of over 400,000 clients on our report. We may not have been able to cover all of the past. But with the help of AI, that has enhanced our efficiency.

We believe that this is a very good opportunity: that we've been able to talk to all our potential clients or who should be our clients on our list, again.

But we must emphasize: The company is still very cautious about client's privacy. When doing investment planning suggestions, we would be rather more prudent because we don't want to have any privacy issues being a concern to the company.

At the moment, we will say it's more about efficiency. But I would say, the company, with the -- (inaudible) not chucked out internally all the clients -- all our employees can use -- and, also, the [AIRM] -- that is the translator for our CEO just now -- that are providing -- already providing service, internally and externally, to clients that we are already seeing the efficiency that AI has been bringing to the company.

(spoken in foreign language)

What we've been now promoting is a program called RM100, which -- what would -- about this program is that we asked RMs to hand pick around 100 clients they would like us to serve intensively.

For the rest of the clients [supposedly] on the book, then they have to hand it out to our AI Wealth Management department, which -- the core belief behind this is that we hope that through the support of AI, we can enhance quality, which -- the RMs, when they have hand picked their client, they can better serve his own clientele.

That ultimately is about the income -- can be increased. Ultimately, that drives our profits in the future.

To your question about buyback, dividend, and shareholder return: Because we have confidence in driving our future growth; and, also, we know the financial industry go well; and we also know how to best allocate our resources, that's why the company believes that we have a very high confidence in continuing to return our -- or to reward our shareholders.

I just want to add to the information that we actually have, since the repurchase program, repurchased about 4.3% of the total shares outstanding. Obviously, we have been very disciplined in terms of execution of dividend policy.

I believe that, with adding this year's dividend to the accumulated dividend out, the number is already across the RMB2 billion threshold.

That's actually a very impressive return, not just in Chinese [ADS] but probably on many of the listed companies.

We are actually giving out about $1.32 per ADS this year. That's something, as Chair Lady just mentioned, that we're pretty confident that we'll be able to generate the same level of cash flow and continue to reward our shareholders.

Peter Zhang, JP Morgan.

(interpreted)

Thanks for giving me the opportunity to ask questions. This is Peter Zhang, from JP Morgan. I have two questions.

First is: We noticed that the fourth-quarter revenue was mainly supported by the strong performance fee. We wish to understand what's the drivers behind and consist (inaudible) revenue segment to be sustainable into 2026?

Secondly, given -- which management -- can help you (inaudible) describe what's the quality take -- operating trend for Noah, including client activity, client investor behavior, wealth management sales -- product sales volume, as well as revenue trend?

In addition, the market has been quite volatile for first quarter. We wish to understand whether this has any implication on your exiting affiliate income items.

(spoken in foreign language)

Let me do a simple translation first.

Honestly, it's hard to precisely predict the trend in the future. However, we must emphasize that it's about the structure.

We've been focusing in investing within [PD] in previous years and believe that, with this structure, (inaudible) we've been promoting investment products, this should bring carry to the company in the future for long-term growth.

For your second question regarding equity in Philippines, yes, we do still see some pressure during Q1. However, we must emphasize that this is only a non-operational impact. It shouldn't be really affecting the cash flow or our operation.

For Q1 operation, if Pan would like to --?

Sure. I just want to add a little bit more on the carry. I think Peter particularly mentioned about the Q4 carry income.

Two-thirds of the carry actually came from an exit from US dollar-denominated funds in Silicon Valley. The rest actually came from the domestic products, from the RMB private hedge fund.

That's a pretty balanced return.

But, obviously, as Zander just mentioned, it's quite difficult to forecast a particular timing of carry. But we are seeing that the AUM accumulated rather good opportunities for continuous return performance fees, hopefully.

Yeah. I think, for the first quarter, obviously, you cannot share too much information about the first-quarter actual operations. But we're seeing, at least, the stabilization of client sentiment toward investments. Two is, obviously, in terms of the tension, especially in MidEast, people are a little bit more risk-averse. They tend to actually put items or investments in more liquidity position and a more diversified portfolio.

That's exactly our point of view that we'll try to make: drive client; diversify across asset classes and, also, regions.

[Yumin Tang, CICC].

(interpreted)

My first question is that we noticed a meaningful expansion in operating margins. (inaudible) current management provide some color on what at the notable increase in our operating margin (inaudible)? Moving forward, how do you view our capacity to (inaudible) back to cost structure?

My second question: What were the primary drivers behind the significant widening of investment losses from equity in affiliates in the fourth quarter?

Yeah. I want to just give a highlight on the operational margin.

Obviously, one is as a result of continuing optimization in terms of cost of, obviously, human resources related in terms of salary and bonuses, especially in mid-back office streamlining, as we just discussed the utilization of AI, as well as the continuing streamlining processes.

As a result of the reduction of headcounts, the total actual cost related to staffing decreased about 10%. With the help of obviously, carry income, we're seeing a pretty healthy margin.

30% is actually the operational margin we always try to aim for. That will continue to be reflected in our strategy in 2026.

Also, in terms of your question on the affiliated equity performance, we're obviously seeing a lot of pressure in the fourth quarter. But, hopefully, (inaudible) will be able to stabilize in the first quarter.

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session.

I'd like to turn the conference back over to the company for any closing remarks.

Thank you. Thank you everyone for joining us today.

If you have further questions about the company, please feel pleased to reach out to the IR team.

Have a good day, everyone.

Thank you. (multiple speakers) --

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call.

We thank you all for attending today's presentation.

You may now disconnect your lines. Have a wonderful day.

Portions of this transcript that are marked (interpreted) were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.