使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Thank you for joining us for Navios Maritime Partners Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. With us today from the company are Chairwoman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou; Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Efstratios Desypris; Chief Financial Officer, Ms. Erifili Tsironi; and Vice Chairman, Mr. Ted Petrone.
感謝您參加 Navios Maritime Partners 2020 第三季財報電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有公司董事長兼首席執行官 Angeliki Frangou 女士;營運長 Efstratios Desypris 先生;財務官,Erifili Tsironi 女士;和副主席 Ted Petrone 先生。
As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast. (Operator Instructions). Now I will review the safe harbor statement. This conference call could contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 about Navios Partners. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. Such forward-looking statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of Navios Partners management and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Such risks are more fully discussed in Navios Partners filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
提醒一下,本次電話會議正在網路直播。 (操作員說明)。現在我將回顧安全港聲明。本次電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內有關 Navios Partners 的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述為非歷史事實的陳述。此類前瞻性聲明是基於 Navios Partners 管理階層目前的信念和期望,並受到風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。 Navios Partners 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中更全面地討論了此類風險。
The information set forth herein should be understood in light of such risks. Navios Partners does not assume any obligation to update the information contained in this conference call. The agenda for today's call is as follows: first, Ms. Frangou will offer opening remarks. Next, Mr. Desypris will give an overview of Navios Partners segment data. Next, Ms. Tsironi will give an overview of Navios Partners financial results. Then Mr. Petrone will provide an industry overview. And lastly, we'll open the call to take questions. Now I turn the call over to Navios Partners Chairwoman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou. Angeliki?
應根據此類風險來理解此處列出的資訊。 Navios Partners 不承擔更新本次電話會議中包含的資訊的任何義務。今天的電話會議議程如下:首先,弗蘭古女士將致開幕詞。接下來,Desypris 先生將概述 Navios Partners 的細分數據。接下來,Tsironi 女士將概述 Navios Partners 的財務表現。隨後Petron先生將介紹產業概況。最後,我們將開始接受提問。現在我將電話轉給 Navios Partners 董事長兼執行長 Angeliki Frangou 女士。安吉利基?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Good morning and thank you all for joining us on today's call. I am pleased with the results of the third quarter of 2023, in which we reported revenue of $323 million and net income of about $90 million. We are also pleased to report net earnings per common unit of $2.92 for the quarter.
早安,感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我對 2023 年第三季的業績感到滿意,我們報告的收入為 3.23 億美元,淨利潤約為 9,000 萬美元。我們也很高興地報告本季每普通單位淨利潤為 2.92 美元。
Before I provide some comments on the company, I would like to share my views regarding economic sentiment. The U.S. economy is generally healthy, but there are clouds on the horizon. The U.S. has high government debt levels and the highest pastime fiscal deficit. The Fed is engaged in the computative tightening, and there is a risk of interest rates rising further from their current relatively elevated levels. China, the world's largest consumer of commodities, is not firing on all cylinders. These factors, along the wars in Ukraine and Israel, are contributing to making this one of the most dangerous times in memory.
在對公司發表評論之前,我想先談談我對經濟景氣的看法。美國經濟整體健康,但也存在陰雲。美國的政府債務水準很高,消遣性財政赤字也是最高的。聯準會正在進行計算性緊縮,利率有可能從目前相對較高的水平進一步上升。中國作為全球最大的商品消費國,並沒有全力以赴。這些因素,加上烏克蘭和以色列的戰爭,使這段時期成為人們記憶中最危險的時期之一。
Despite these clouds, the TCE market is robust and healthy. Our company is doing well and positioned for all weather. We'll continue to focus on things that we can control, such as reducing levels, being eco-friendly by keeping a modern energy-efficient fleet and expanding into areas which we will promote our long-term prospects, such as the recent tanker build we entered into with various or majors. Navios Partners is a leading publicly listed shipment company, diversified in site asset classes in 3 sectors with an average vessel age of about 9.6 years. We have 180 vessels split roughly equally into 3 sectors based on a charter-adjusted value.
儘管存在這些陰雲,TCE 市場仍然強勁且健康。我們公司經營狀況良好,能夠適應各種天氣狀況。我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情,例如降低水平,透過保留現代節能船隊來實現環保,以及擴展到我們將促進長期前景的領域,例如最近建造的油輪我們進入了不同的專業。 Navios Partners 是一家領先的上市航運公司,在 3 個領域擁有多元化的場地資產類別,平均船齡約為 9.6 年。我們有 180 艘船,根據包機調整值大致平均分為 3 個區域。
Please turn to Slide 7. We have about $270 million of cash on our balance sheet. In the third quarter, we had about 5.3% on an annualized basis on our cash balances. In addition, we are positioned well for the fourth quarter as we have $52 million of contracted revenue in excess of cash expenses and 2,304 open index days. In the third quarter, we entered into the transhipment business. We modified a Navios Vega, Ultra-Handymax vessels to have the equipment necessary to provide transshipment operations and entered into a 5-year charter with Navios South American Logistics. The vessel is expected to commence its operation in the fourth quarter and generate about $30 million of EBITDA over the course of its charter. The vessel itself in this trade should have an extended useful life of about 30 years.
請翻到投影片 7。我們的資產負債表上有大約 2.7 億美元的現金。第三季度,我們的現金餘額以年化計算約為 5.3%。此外,我們第四季的情況良好,因為我們的合約收入超過現金支出 5,200 萬美元,並且有 2,304 個開放指數日。第三季度,我們進入轉運業務。我們改裝了一艘 Navios Vega、Ultra-Handymax 船舶,配備了提供轉運業務所需的設備,並與 Navios South American Logistics 簽訂了為期 5 年的租船合約。該船預計將於第四季度開始運營,並在租用期間產生約 3000 萬美元的 EBITDA。該行業的船舶本身應具有約 30 年的延長使用壽命。
Please turn to Slide 8. We provide an S&P update year-to-date. 2023, we generated $255.2 million gross proceeds from the sale of 14 vessels. In the first 9 months of the year, we received $242 million, and we received $13 million balance in the fourth quarter of 2023. In terms of acquisition, we spent $421.6 million for 4 newbuildings, scrubber-fitted Aframax LR2 vessels and 4 Japanese newbuildings MR2 vessels. We also spent $28 million to acquire a 2019 Kamsarmax vessel that we previously chartered in. We continue to work on obtaining long-term contracted revenue. In the third quarter, we created $257.9 million of contracted revenue. Of this amount, we expect to receive $171.9 million from 5 tankers with an average charter period of 3.8 years. In addition, we expect to receive $47.1 million from the vessel we placed into the transshipment business.
請參閱投影片 8。我們提供今年迄今的標準普爾更新。到 2023 年,我們透過出售 14 艘船舶獲得了 2.552 億美元的總收益。今年前9 個月,我們收到了2.42 億美元,2023 年第四季我們收到了1300 萬美元的餘額。在收購方面,我們花了4.216 億美元購買了4 艘新造船、配備脫硫塔的阿芙拉型LR2 船和4 艘日本新造船MR2 船。我們還斥資 2800 萬美元購買了一艘我們之前租用的 2019 年 Kamsarmax 船舶。我們繼續致力於獲得長期合約收入。第三季度,我們創造了 2.579 億美元的合約收入。其中,我們預計將從 5 艘油輪獲得 1.719 億美元,平均租期為 3.8 年。此外,我們預計將從我們投入轉運業務的船舶中獲得 4,710 萬美元。
Finally, we expect to generate $38.9 million from 3 4,250 TEU containerships. Average about 18,300 net per day for 1.9 years. This year, we were approached by certain counterparties to enter into a menu that would relieve them of certain liabilities. We facilitated this transaction at an estimated $10.2 million net present value benefit to Navios. $3.5 million of this value is attributable to a $52.5 million prepayment of charter hire for 2 containerships, and $6.7 million of this value is (inaudible) to charter amendment and extension for 2 containerships.
最後,我們預計 3 艘 4,250 TEU 貨櫃船將產生 3,890 萬美元的收入。 1.9 年平均每天淨流量約 18,300 人。今年,某些交易對手與我們接洽,要求我們簽訂菜單,以減輕他們的某些負債。我們促成了這筆交易,預計為 Navios 帶來 1,020 萬美元的淨現值收益。其中 350 萬美元用於預付 2 艘貨櫃船的 5,250 萬美元租約租金,其中 670 萬美元用於(聽不清楚)2 艘貨櫃船的租約修改和延期。
Please turn to Slide 9. Since our transformation in 2020, our financial performance has been strong. Our 9 months 2023 adjusted EBITDA is 11.4% higher than 9 months 2022. Looking backwards, 2022 was 57% higher than 2021 and almost 570% higher than 2020. We believe that our diversified business model can continue to perform in difficult markets. I'll now turn the presentation over to Mr. Efstratios Desypris, Navios Partners Chief Operating Officer. Efstratios?
請參閱幻燈片 9。自 2020 年轉型以來,我們的財務表現一直強勁。我們的2023 年9 個月調整後EBITDA 比2022 年9 個月高出11.4%。回顧過去,2022 年比2021 年高出57%,比2020 年高出近570%。我們相信,我們的多元化業務模式可以在困難的市場中繼續發揮作用。我現在將演講交給 Navios Partners 營運長 Efstratios Desypris 先生。埃夫斯特拉提奧斯?
Efstratios Desypris - COO
Efstratios Desypris - COO
Thank you, Angeliki, and good morning all. Please turn to Slide 10, which details our strong operating free cash flow potential for the fourth quarter of 2023. We fixed 83% of our available days at an average rate of $23,610 net per day. Our contracted revenue exceeds expected total cash expense for Q4 '23 by about $52 million. We have 2,304 opening index-linked days that will provide additional profitability. Please turn to Slide 11. We are always renewing the fleet so that we maintain a young profile. It is part of our strategy to reduce our carbon footprint by modernizing our fleet, benefiting from new technologies and eco vessels with greener characteristics. We have $1.7 billion remaining investment in 28 building vessels delivering partly through 2027, for which most of the financing has already been in place.
謝謝你,Angeliki,大家早安。請參閱投影片 10,其中詳細介紹了我們 2023 年第四季強勁的營運自由現金流潛力。我們將 83% 的可用天數固定為平均每天淨額 23,610 美元。我們的合約收入比 2023 年第 4 季的預期總現金支出超出了約 5,200 萬美元。我們有 2,304 個與指數掛鉤的開盤日,這將提供額外的獲利能力。請參閱投影片 11。我們一直在更新機隊,以保持年輕的形象。這是我們透過現代化船隊、受益於新技術和具有綠色特性的生態船舶來減少碳足跡的策略的一部分。我們還有 17 億美元的剩餘投資,將建造 28 艘船舶,預計到 2027 年部分交付,其中大部分融資已經到位。
In containerships, we acquired 12 vessels for a total of about $860 million, which we hedged by entering to long-term credit bore charges, generating about $1 billion in contracted revenue for about 6.5 years average duration of the related charters. In the tanker space, we acquired 16 vessels for a total price of approximately $885 million. We have already chartered out 10 of these vessels for another period of 5 years, generating revenues of about $0.5 billion. The dry bulk program of 8 vessels were completed in June 2023 with the delivery of the last Capesize vessel. We have also been active in opportunistically selling other vessels based on segment fundamentals. Year-to-date, we have sold 14 vessels with an average age of approximately 15 years for $255.2 million. We sold 7 tanker vessels for about $160 million to take advantage of the strong tanker market. Also, we sold 7 dry bulk vessels for a total price of $95.4 million. Our last sale was a 19.3 years old Capesize vessel, which we sold within Q3 for $13 million.
在貨櫃船方面,我們以總計約 8.6 億美元的價格收購了 12 艘船舶,我們透過簽訂長期信貸費用進行對沖,在相關租船平均期限約 6.5 年的時間內產生約 10 億美元的合約收入。在油輪領域,我們收購了 16 艘油輪,總價約 8.85 億美元。我們已經將其中 10 艘船舶再租期 5 年,創造了約 5 億美元的收入。 8 艘船的乾散貨項目於 2023 年 6 月完成,最後一艘海岬型船交付。我們也根據細分市場的基本面積極機會性地出售其他船舶。今年迄今為止,我們已售出 14 艘平均船齡約為 15 年的船舶,售價為 2.552 億美元。我們以約 1.6 億美元的價格出售了 7 艘油輪,以利用強勁的油輪市場。此外,我們還出售了 7 艘乾散貨船,總價為 9,540 萬美元。我們最後一次出售的是一艘已有 19.3 年船齡的好望角型船舶,我們在第三季以 1300 萬美元的價格出售。
Moving to Slide 12. We continue to secure lot unemployment for our fleet. As Angeliki mentioned earlier, in Q3, we have created about $260 million additional contracted revenue. Approximately $172 million comes from our tanker fleet, and about $40 million comes from our containerships. Additionally, we agreed a 5-year contract with Navios Logistics for Navios Vega, 1 Handymax vessel that was modified to perform transshipment operations, which is expected to provide about $50 million in revenue. The vessel is expected to be delivered within the fourth quarter. Additionally, we amended charters for 4 of our containerships. For 2 of the vessels, we agreed a prepayment of higher for $52.5 million and the assumption of the subcharter that the vessels are currently on. This repayment was received in October and resulted in the net present value benefit of approximately $3.5 million.
轉到投影片 12。我們繼續確保我們的機隊失業。正如 Angeliki 之前提到的,在第三季度,我們創造了約 2.6 億美元的額外合約收入。大約 1.72 億美元來自我們的油輪船隊,大約 4000 萬美元來自我們的貨櫃船。此外,我們還與 Navios Logistics 就 Navios Vega 簽訂了一份為期 5 年的合同,這是一艘經過改裝以執行轉運業務的靈便型船舶,預計將帶來約 5000 萬美元的收入。該船預計將於第四季交付。此外,我們也修改了 4 艘貨櫃船的租船合約。對於其中 2 艘船,我們同意支付 5,250 萬美元的更高預付款,並假設這些船目前正在進行轉租。該還款已於 10 月收到,帶來約 350 萬美元的淨現值收益。
For the remaining 2 vessels, we have agreed on the current charter rate and extended duration of the charters for an additional 2.4 years at an implied rate of $18,000 per day, creating $31.7 million additional revenue and resulting in a net present value benefit of approximately $6.7 million. In Slide 13, you can see our total contracted revenue, which amounts to $3.3 billion. $1 billion relates to our tanker fleet, $0.4 billion relates to our bulk fleet, and $1.9 billion relates to our containerships. Charters are extended through 2037 with a diverse group of quality counterparties. About 50% of our contracted revenue will be in the next 2 years. I now pass the call to Eri Tsironi, our CFO, which will take you through the financial highlights. Eri?
對於其餘2 艘船,我們已同意當前的租船費率,並將租船期限再延長2.4 年,隱含費率為每天18,000 美元,創造3170 萬美元的額外收入,並帶來約6.7 美元的淨現值效益百萬。在投影片 13 中,您可以看到我們的合約總收入達 33 億美元。 10 億美元與我們的油輪船隊相關,4 億美元與我們的散裝船隊相關,19 億美元與我們的貨櫃船相關。與多元化的優質交易對手群體的特許經營期限延長至 2037 年。我們約 50% 的合約收入將來自未來 2 年。我現在將電話轉給我們的財務長 Eri Tsironi,他將向您介紹財務亮點。埃里?
Erifili Tsironi - CFO
Erifili Tsironi - CFO
Thank you, Efstratios, and good morning all. I will briefly review our unaudited financial results for the third quarter and 9 months ended September 30, 2023. The financial information is included in the press release and summarized in the slide presentation available on the company's website. Moving to the end highlights on Slide 14. Total revenue for the third quarter of 2023 slightly increased to $323.2 million compared to $322.4 million for the same period in 2022. Time charter revenue for the period is understated by $9.7 million because U.S. GAAP rules require the recognition of revenue for our charters with the escalating rates on a straight-line basis. Available days increased by 6.7% to 13,759 compared to 12,897 for the same quarter last year. Our average combined time charter equivalent rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 22,052 per day, 7.3% lower than Q3 2022 levels.
謝謝你,Efstratios,大家早安。我將簡要回顧我們截至2023 年9 月30 日的第三季和9 個月未經審計的財務業績。財務資訊包含在新聞稿中,並在公司網站上的幻燈片簡報中進行了總結。轉到幻燈片14 的最後亮點。2023 年第三季的總收入小幅增長至3.232 億美元,而2022 年同期為3.224 億美元。該期間的定期租船收入被低估了970 萬美元,因為美國公認會計準則規則要求以直線基礎上逐步遞增的費率確認我們的包機收入。可用天數增加 6.7%,達到 13,759 天,去年同期為 12,897 天。我們 2023 年第三季的平均合併定期租船當量率為每天 22,052 份,比 2022 年第三季的水準低 7.3%。
In terms of sector performance, both tankers and containers enjoyed improved rates compared to the same period last year. TCE rates for the third quarter of 2023 for own tankers increased by 26.8% to $27,688 per day and for our containers by 5.4% to $34,350 per day. In contrast, our dry TCE rate was 29.5% lower compared to the same period last year at $14,139 per day. EBITDA, net income and EPU were adjusted due to the following gains from sale of vessels.
從業界表現來看,油輪和貨櫃運價均較去年同期改善。 2023 年第三季自有油輪的 TCE 費率上漲 26.8%,達到每天 27,688 美元,我們的貨櫃則上漲 5.4%,達到每天 34,350 美元。相比之下,我們的乾 TCE 費率比去年同期低 29.5%,為每天 14,139 美元。 EBITDA、淨利潤和 EPU 由於以下船舶銷售收益而進行了調整。
For Q3 2023, $7.2 million; for the first 9 months of 2023, $50.8 million; and for Q3 and first 9 months 2022, $143.8 million. Excluding these items, adjusted EBITDA for Q3 '23 decreased by 2.3% to $173.7 million compared to $177.7 million for the same period last year. Adjusted net income for Q3 2023 decreased by 27% to $82.6 million compared to $113.4 million in Q3 2022 mainly due to the negative effect of a $21.3 million reduction in the positive income of the amortization of unfavorable leases and a $6.3 million increase in our interest expense net of interest income due to the increase in our debt leverage and interest rate costs. Adjusted earnings per common unit for Q3 2023 were $2.68.
2023 年第三季為 720 萬美元; 2023 年前 9 個月為 5,080 萬美元; 2022 年第三季和前 9 個月為 1.438 億美元。排除這些項目,23 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 下降 2.3%,至 1.737 億美元,而去年同期為 1.777 億美元。與2022 年第三季的1.134 億美元相比,2023 年第三季調整後淨利下降27%,至8,260 萬美元,主要是由於不利租賃攤銷的正收入減少2,130 萬美元以及利息支出增加630萬美元的負面影響扣除因債務槓桿和利率成本增加而產生的利息收入。 2023 年第三季調整後每普通單位收益為 2.68 美元。
Total revenue for the first 9 months of 2023 increased by 16.7% to $979.6 million compared to $839.7 million for the same period in 2022. Time charter revenue for the period is understated by $30.2 million because U.S. GAAP rules require the recognition of revenue for our charters with the escalating rates on a straight-line basis. The increase in revenue was mainly a result of a 16.5% increase in available days to 41,239 compared to 35,394 for the same period since 2022. Our combined time charter rate for the first 9 months of 2023 was slightly lower at $22,242 per day compared to the same period last year.
2023 年前9 個月的總收入成長16.7%,達到9.796 億美元,而2022 年同期為8.397 億美元。該期間的期租收入被低估了3,020 萬美元,因為美國公認會計準則規則要求確認我們的租船收入率呈直線上升。收入的成長主要是由於可用天數增加了16.5%,達到41,239 天,而自2022 年以來同期為35,394 天。我們2023 年前9 個月的綜合期租費率略低,為每天22,242 美元,而2022 美元年同期為35,394 天。去年同期。
In terms of sector performance, both tankers and containers enjoyed improved rates compared to the same period last year. Time charter equivalent rate for the first 9 months of 2023 for our tankers increased by 62.7% to $29,014 per day and for our containers by 14.6% to $34,930 per day. In contrast, our dry Freight TCE rate was 36.3% lower compared to the same period last year at $13,630 per day. Excluding the items mentioned earlier, adjusted EBITDA for the first 9 months of 2023 increased by 11.4% to $520.5 million compared to $467.3 million for the same period in 2022.
從業界表現來看,油輪和貨櫃運價均較去年同期改善。 2023 年頭 9 個月,我們的油輪等值期租費率增加了 62.7%,達到每天 29,014 美元,貨櫃期租費率增加了 14.6%,達到每天 34,930 美元。相比之下,我們的乾貨運 TCE 費率比去年同期低 36.3%,為每天 13,630 美元。不包括前面提到的項目,2023 年前 9 個月的調整後 EBITDA 成長 11.4%,達到 5.205 億美元,而 2022 年同期為 4.673 億美元。
Adjusted net income for the first 9 months of 2023 decreased by 21% to $250.5 million compared to $317.2 million for the same period last year. Our net income was negatively affected by $47.8 million reduction in the positive impact of the amortization of favorable leases and a $43.4 million increase in our interest expense net of interest income due to the increase in our debt levels and interest rate costs. Adjusted earnings per common unit for the first 9 months of 2023 were $18.13. Turning to Slide 15. I will briefly discuss some key balance sheet data. As of September 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalents were $269.2 million. In the first 9 months of '23, we paid $225.9 million of predelivery installments and other capitalized expenses under our building program and $83.9 million for vessel acquisitions and improvements. We sold 13 vessels for $237.4 million, net adding $153 million cash after the repayment of the respective debt. Long-term volumes, including the current portion net of deferred fees, slightly reduced to $1.93 billion. Net debt to book capitalization decreased to 36.4%.
2023 年前 9 個月調整後淨利為 2.505 億美元,較去年同期的 3.172 億美元下降 21%。由於我們的債務水準和利率成本增加,有利租賃攤銷的正面影響減少了 4,780 萬美元,扣除利息收入的利息支出增加了 4,340 萬美元,這對我們的淨利潤產生了負面影響。 2023 年前 9 個月的調整後每普通單位收益為 18.13 美元。轉向投影片 15。我將簡要討論一些關鍵的資產負債表資料。截至2023年9月30日,現金及現金等價物為2.692億美元。在 2023 年的前 9 個月中,我們根據我們的建造計劃支付了 2.259 億美元的預交付分期付款和其他資本化費用,以及 8390 萬美元的船舶收購和改進費用。我們以 2.374 億美元的價格出售了 13 艘船舶,在償還相應債務後淨增加了 1.53 億美元的現金。長期交易量(包括目前扣除遞延費用的部分)略微減少至 19.3 億美元。淨債務與帳面資本之比下降至 36.4%。
Slide 16 highlights our debt profile. We continue to diversify our funding resources between bank debt and leasing structures, while 36% of our debt has fixed interest at an average rate of 5.6%. We also try to mitigate part of the increased interest rate costs, having reduced the average margin for our floating debt by approximately 40 basis points to 2.3% from 2.7% at 2022 year-end. A maturity profile this target with no significant volumes due in any single year. In terms of our newbuilding program, 82% of our new premium financing is already concluded or in documentation phase at an average margin of 1.8%. During the quarter, we arranged a total of $92.3 million to refinance the existing leasing facilities where we manage to decrease respective margins and extend maturities.
投影片 16 重點介紹了我們的債務狀況。我們繼續在銀行債務和租賃結構之間實現融資資源多元化,而 36% 的債務具有固定利率,平均利率為 5.6%。我們也嘗試減輕部分增加的利率成本,將浮動債務的平均利潤率從 2022 年底的 2.7% 降低約 40 個基點至 2.3%。該目標的成熟度概況在任何一年都沒有大量到期。就我們的新造船計劃而言,我們 82% 的新溢價融資已經結束或處於文件階段,平均利潤率為 1.8%。本季度,我們總共安排了 9,230 萬美元為現有租賃設施再融資,我們設法降低各自的利潤並延長期限。
Turning to Slide 17, you can see our ESG initiatives. We continue to invest in new energy-efficient vessels and reduce emissions through energy-saving devices and efficient vessel operations. Navios is a socially conscious group whose core values include diversity, inclusion and safety. We have strong corporate governance and clear code of ethics, while our Board is composed by majority independent directors. I'll now pass the call to Ted Petrone to take you through the industry section. Ted?
請參閱投影片 17,您可以看到我們的 ESG 措施。我們持續投資新型節能船舶,透過節能裝置和高效能船舶運作減少排放。 Navios 是一個具有社會意識的團體,核心價值包括多元化、包容性和安全性。我們擁有強而有力的公司治理和明確的道德準則,而我們的董事會由多數獨立董事組成。現在我將把電話轉給 Ted Petrone,帶您了解產業部分。泰德?
Ted C. Petrone - Vice Chairman of Navios Corporation
Ted C. Petrone - Vice Chairman of Navios Corporation
Thank you, Eri. Please turn to Slide 20 for the review of the tanker industry. World GDP is expected to grow at 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024 based on the IMF's October forecast. There's an 85% correlation of world oil demand to global GDP growth. In spite of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, the IEA projects a 2.3 million barrels per day increase in world oil demand for 2023 to 101.9 million barrels per day and a 0.9 million barrels for the increase in 2024. Chinese crude imports continue to rise, averaging 11.4 million barrels per day through September, a 14.6% increase over the same period last year. Following a very strong first half, tanker rates softened slightly as Q3 seasonality played out, accentuated by reduced exports, refinery maintenance and inventory drawdowns. Recently, rates have risen on the back of rising demand and increased refinery throughput as the auto maintenance season finishes. The recent Saudi and Russian crude export cuts have been somewhat mitigated by increased Atlantic exports, which have elevated volatility for the larger vessels.
謝謝你,埃里。請參閱幻燈片 20 回顧油輪產業。根據國際貨幣基金組織 10 月的預測,預計 2023 年世界 GDP 將成長 3%,2024 年將成長 2.9%。世界石油需求與全球 GDP 成長有 85% 的相關性。儘管存在經濟和地緣政治不確定性,IEA預計2023年世界石油需求將增加230萬桶/日,達到1.019億桶/日,2024年將增加90萬桶/日。中國原油進口量持續成長,平均成長11.4%截至9月份,日產量為100萬桶,較去年同期成長14.6%。繼上半年的強勁表現後,隨著第三季季節性的結束,油輪運價略有走軟,出口減少、煉油廠維護和庫存減少加劇了這種情況。最近,由於汽車維修季節結束,需求增加和煉油廠產量增加,費率上升。最近沙烏地阿拉伯和俄羅斯原油出口削減在一定程度上因大西洋出口增加而緩解,這增加了大型船舶的波動性。
Turning to Slide 21. As previously mentioned, both food and product rates remain strong across the board due to healthy supply and demand fundamentals, minimal fleet growth and shifting trading patterns. Product tankers are also aided by a healthy refinery margins and discounted Russian crude exported to the Indian Ocean and the Far East returning to the Atlantic as clean product. Crude ton mile growth is expected to increase by 6.2% in '23 and a further 4.9% in 2024. Similarly, product ton miles anticipated increases stand at 11.3% and 6.1% for 2023 and 2024, respectively.
轉向幻燈片 21。如前所述,由於健康的供需基本面、最小的船隊增長和不斷變化的貿易模式,食品和產品價格仍然全面強勁。成品油輪也受益於健康的煉油廠利潤以及出口到印度洋和遠東的折扣俄羅斯原油作為清潔產品返回大西洋。預計 2023 年原油噸英里增長 6.2%,2024 年進一步增長 4.9%。同樣,2023 年和 2024 年產品噸英里預計分別增長 11.3% 和 6.1%。
Turning to Slide 22. The OCC net fleet growth is projected at 2.3% for 2023 and a negative fleet growth of 0.9% for 2024. This decline can be partially attributed to owners hesitant to own expensive long-lived assets in light of macroeconomic uncertainty and technology concerns due to CO2 restrictions in force since the beginning of this year. The current low order book is only 2.7% of the fleet or only 24 vessels, the lowest in 30 years. Vessels over 20 years of age are 14.1% of the total fleet or 129 vessels, which is over 5x the oil book. Turning to Slide 23. Product tanker net fleet growth is projected at 2.1% for '23 and only 1.1% for 2024. The current product tanker order book is 10.2% of the fleet, where the lowest on record and is approximately equal to the 9.8% of the fleet, which is 20 years of age or older.
轉向幻燈片22。預計2023 年OCC 機隊淨增長為2.3%,2024 年機隊負增長為0.9%。這種下降的部分原因是船東考慮到宏觀經濟的不確定性和對擁有昂貴的長期資產的猶豫不決。由於今年年初以來二氧化碳排放限製而引發的技術擔憂。目前訂單量較低,僅佔船隊的 2.7%,即只有 24 艘船,為 30 年來的最低水準。船齡超過 20 年的船舶佔船隊總數的 14.1%,即 129 艘船舶,是石油帳簿的 5 倍以上。轉向幻燈片 23。預計 23 年成品油輪船隊淨增長為 2.1%,2024 年僅為 1.1%。目前成品油輪訂單量佔船隊的 10.2%,為有記錄以來的最低水平,約等於 9.8%。船齡20 年或以上的%。
In concluding the tanker sector review, tanker rates across the board continued its strong levels. The combination of below-average global inventories, growth in global oil demand, new longer trade routes for both crude and products as well as the lowest order book in 3 decades and the IMO 2023 regulations should provide for healthy tanker earnings going forward. Please turn to Slide 25, a review of the dry bulk industry. For the majority of Q3, normal seasonality played out, assisted by unwinding congestion and soft demand outside China. However, Chinese raw material demand continued to increase on the back of sustained economic stimulus and pre-winter stockpiling, especially for coal and iron ore. This led the BDI to more than double from 962 on July 25 to 2,105 on October 18. After a recent retracement, the BDI currently stands at about 1,400.
在結束油輪產業審查時,油輪運價全面持續保持強勁水準。全球庫存低於平均水平、全球石油需求增長、新的更長的原油和產品貿易路線、30年來最低的訂單量以及國際海事組織2023年的法規,這些因素結合在一起,應該會為未來的油輪收益提供健康的保障。請參閱投影片 25,乾散貨產業的回顧。在第三季的大部分時間裡,在中國境外交通擁堵緩解和需求疲軟的推動下,正常的季節性出現了。然而,在持續的經濟刺激和冬前庫存的推動下,中國原料需求持續增加,尤其是煤炭和鐵礦石。這導致 BDI 從 7 月 25 日的 962 點上漲至 10 月 18 日的 2,105 點,漲幅超過一倍。經過最近的回調,BDI 目前約為 1,400 點。
With regard to iron ore and coal, Chinese continuing stimulus measures and relent destocking should assist imports through the year-end. The global grain trade is impacted by the war in Ukraine, shifting trading patterns towards longer-haul routes. Seaborne grain trade volume is expected to grow by 2.7% in '24, added by ton mile growth of 3.6%. Going forward, supply and demand fundamentals remain intact. A normal seasonally stronger Q4, the historically low order book, declining net fleet growth and tightening GHG emissions regulations remain positive factors, which are reflected in the time charter and S&P markets.
就鐵礦石和煤炭而言,中國持續的刺激措施和持續的去庫存應有助於年底前的進口。全球糧食貿易受到烏克蘭戰爭的影響,貿易模式轉向長途航線。預計 2024 年海運糧食貿易量將成長 2.7%,噸英里成長 3.6%。展望未來,供需基本面依然完好。第四季正常的季節性強勁、訂單量處於歷史低點、船隊淨增長下降以及溫室氣體排放法規收緊仍然是積極因素,這些都反映在期租和標準普爾市場上。
Please turn to Slide 26. The current order book stands at 8% of the fleet, one of the lowest since the early 1980s. Net fleet growth for '23 is expected at 2.9% and only 2.2% in 2024 as owners remove tonnage that has been uneconomic due to IMO '23 CO2 in force since the beginning of the year and the emissions trading system starting in Europe at the beginning of next year. Vessels over 20 years of age are about 8.3% of the total fleet, which compares favorably with the historically low order book. And concluding our dry bulk sector review. Continuing demand for natural resources congestion at the Panama Canal, war and sanction-related longer-haul routes, combined with a slowing pace of new deliveries, all support freight rates going forward.
請參閱幻燈片 26。目前的訂單量佔船隊的 8%,是 20 世紀 80 年代初以來的最低訂單之一。 '23 的淨船隊增長率預計為 2.9%,到 2024 年僅為 2.2%,因為船東移除了由於 IMO '23 CO2 自年初生效以來不經濟的噸位以及年初在歐洲啟動的排放交易系統明年的。船齡超過 20 年的船舶約佔船隊總數的 8.3%,這與歷史上較低的訂單量相比是有利的。並結束我們的乾散貨產業審查。巴拿馬運河對自然資源擁擠的持續需求、戰爭和與制裁相關的長途航線,加上新交付速度放緩,都支撐著未來的運費。
Please turn to Slide 28. Container rates, although still above pre-pandemic levels, continue to soften on the back of elevated deliveries and lower imports by Western consumers, partially attributed to the end of stimulus fuel spending and other macroeconomic issues, including inflation. A loan trade is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2024. Newbuilding deliveries in '24 and '25 will be equivalent to approximately 20% of the fleet after a record net fleet growth of 7.7% this year. This has continued to pressure rates for some time. The Shanghai Container Freight Index, or SCFI, currently at 1,013, which is 5% lower than opening the year at 1,061. As you note the graph on the lower right, the U.S. retail inventory-to-sales ratio is off the recent low but still well below the long-term average. The graph on the lower left, a recent slowdown of U.S. consumer purchases and goods, although still above pre-pandemic levels, lower imports have eased port takeaway bottlenecks and port congestion.
請參閱投影片28。儘管貨櫃運價仍高於疫情前的水平,但由於西方消費者的交貨量增加和進口減少,貨櫃運價繼續走軟,部分原因是刺激性燃料支出的結束和包括通貨膨脹在內的其他宏觀經濟問題。預計 2024 年貸款貿易將成長 3.8%。今年船隊淨成長創紀錄的 7.7% 後,2024 年和 25 年的新船交付量將相當於船隊的約 20%。這在一段時間內持續對利率構成壓力。上海貨櫃運價指數(SCFI)目前為 1,013,比年初的 1,061 低 5%。正如您注意到右下角的圖表,美國零售庫存與銷售比率已脫離近期低點,但仍遠低於長期平均。左下圖顯示,美國消費者購買和商品近期放緩,儘管仍高於疫情前水平,但進口減少緩解了港口外帶瓶頸和港口擁堵。
Turning to Slide 29. Net fleet growth is expected at 7.7% for '23 and 6.8% for 2024. The current order book stands at 26.7% against 10.7% of the fleet 20 years of age or older. About 72% of the order book is for 10,000 TEU vessels or larger. In concluding the container sector review, supply and demand fundamentals remain challenged due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties and an elevated order book. Over the prospect of Chinese stimulus and world GDP growth of 3% for '23 and 2.9% in '24 provide a counterpoint for a challenging '23. This concludes our presentation. I would now like to turn the call over to Angeliki for her final comments. Angeliki?
轉向投影片 29。預計 23 年機隊淨成長率為 7.7%,2024 年機隊淨成長率為 6.8%。目前訂單量為 26.7%,而 20 年及以上機隊的訂單量為 10.7%。大約 72% 的訂單是 10,000 TEU 或更大的船舶。總結貨櫃產業的回顧,由於經濟和地緣政治的不確定性以及訂單量的增加,供需基本面仍面臨挑戰。中國刺激計畫的前景以及 23 年世界 GDP 成長 3% 和 24 年 2.9% 為充滿挑戰的 23 年提供了對比。我們的演講到此結束。我現在想將電話轉給 Angeliki 以徵求她的最終意見。安吉利基?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Thank you, Ted. This is a conclusion of formal presentation. We'll open the call to questions.
謝謝你,泰德。這是正式演示的結論。我們將開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Omar Nokta with Jefferies.
(操作員說明)我們將接受 Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta 提出的第一個問題。
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Obviously, Navios has been focused on keeping a pretty nice and sizable contract backlog at $3.3 billion, which is basically flat with last quarter. You've highlighted the amend and extend on the containership charters, which makes sense given the pullback obviously in that market. And you highlighted that they are NPV-positive. I wanted to ask in general, can we expect more of these in the near term? Is this something that we will continue to see in the container market and then also with respect to Navios? And then do you think that there is potential that's happening with the newbuildings as well? Or is this more of a dynamic that's affecting some of the existing tonnage that was fixed at the height of the market?
顯然,Navios 一直致力於將未完成的合約保持在 33 億美元的水平,與上季度基本持平。您強調了貨櫃船租船合約的修改和延期,考慮到該市場明顯的回調,這是有道理的。您強調說,它們的 NPV 為正值。我想問的是,我們可以在短期內期待更多這樣的事嗎?我們會在容器市場以及 Navios 上繼續看到這種情況嗎?那麼您認為新建築也有潛力嗎?或者這更像是一種動態,影響著市場高峰時期固定的一些現有噸位?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Omar, actually, your observation is correct. Containers are in a weak moment. So these kinds of transactions happened. I mean counterparties will ask for amendments. And of course, we only do things that make sense for Navios. So we are very careful about that. We basically got about over $10 million of positive NPV. We do not see this happening on other. And it was a counterparty that's uniquely less the sector came in when there was a very robust situation and logistics had to be resolved. And this kind of counterparties really were not strategic to the sector.
奧馬爾,事實上,你的觀察是正確的。容器正處於弱勢時期。所以這些交易就發生了。我的意思是交易對手會要求修改。當然,我們只做對 Navios 有意義的事情。所以我們對此非常謹慎。我們基本上獲得了超過 1000 萬美元的正 NPV。我們在其他方面沒有看到這種情況發生。當情況非常強勁且必須解決物流問題時,這是一個獨特的交易對手。這種交易對手對該產業來說確實不具戰略意義。
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Yes. No, that's helpful, Angeliki. And then I wanted to follow up and ask about the transshipment business, which clearly looks interesting. You took the vague, if I recall, it's an older Supramax and you fixed it for 5 years of that $30 million of cash flow. Obviously, that jumps out just given especially where dry bulk rates have been. Just wanted to ask, one, what does the cost look like to modify the ship for that transshipment business? And then also, are there opportunities to do more here on that front?
是的。不,這很有幫助,Angeliki。然後我想跟進詢問轉運業務,這顯然看起來很有趣。如果我沒記錯的話,你採取了含糊的說法,這是一艘較舊的超靈便型散貨船,你用 5 年的時間用 3000 萬美元的現金流修復了它。顯然,這一點尤其突出,特別是在乾散貨費率的情況下。只是想問,一,為轉運業務改裝船舶的成本是多少?還有,是否有機會在這方面做更多的事情?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Actually, to be honest, the CapEx was very modest, considering the opportunity. We are entering a unique area. We have that ability because we have the transparent into the region because of Navios South American Logistics. And yes, this business can start with one vessel and grow to more. And there was an additional tremendous benefit and is basically proprietary because of the transshipment vessel, then you can see more opportunities on employment or action going vessel South America to China, South America to Europe. So this can create the ability of a whole sector. And that we see as a very good entry point, modest CapEx and the ability really to extend the life of the assets. Because these assets, unlike the rest, can be essentially a year-plus. So basically, we're amortizing 100%. We get all our profit and CapEx on the 5 years that we see that this can actually have additional life.
事實上,說實話,考慮到這個機會,資本支出非常適中。我們正在進入一個獨特的領域。我們擁有這種能力,因為 Navios 南美物流讓我們在該地區具有透明性。是的,這項業務可以從一艘船開始,然後發展到更多。還有一個額外的巨大好處,而且由於轉運船基本上是專有的,那麼您可以看到更多的就業或行動機會,將南美到中國,從南美到歐洲。所以這可以創造整個部門的能力。我們認為這是一個非常好的切入點、適度的資本支出以及真正延長資產壽命的能力。因為這些資產與其他資產不同,基本上可以使用一年以上。所以基本上,我們100%攤提。我們在五年內獲得所有利潤和資本支出,我們看到這實際上可以有額外的壽命。
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Okay. Wow. That sounds interesting and compelling. So we'll stay tuned for more to come. And maybe just one final one. You've obviously addressed this on the call but also in the past. In terms of strategic priorities, clearly, fleet renewal, continuing to build backlog is key. In terms of the balance sheet, perhaps maybe the main priority is to delever and bring the net LTV down to that 20% to 25% range?
好的。哇。這聽起來很有趣且引人注目。因此,我們將繼續關注更多內容。也許只是最後一件事。顯然,您在電話會議上已經討論過這個問題,而且在過去也是如此。就策略重點而言,顯然,機隊更新、繼續積壓訂單是關鍵。就資產負債表而言,也許首要任務是去槓桿化並將淨LTV降低至20%至25%的範圍?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Yes. I mean deleveraging. Sometimes you have to judge between a new opportunity and new sectors and deleveraging. But deleveraging is a target, energy-efficient vessel and creating the new sectors and new opportunities. I mean you saw that we did modernize. We found some unique opportunities to modernize with energy-efficient vessels. And basically, the very important part of that was that we actually expanded and built more our relationship to oil majors. And that is something that we focus on building.
是的。我的意思是去槓桿化。有時你必須在新機會、新產業和去槓桿化之間做出判斷。但去槓桿是一個有目標、節能的船隻,創造新的產業和新的機會。我的意思是你看到我們確實實現了現代化。我們發現了一些利用節能船舶進行現代化改造的獨特機會。基本上,其中非常重要的部分是我們實際上擴大並建立了更多與石油巨頭的關係。這就是我們重點建造的東西。
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.
我們將回答花旗集團克里斯‧韋瑟比 (Chris Wetherbee) 提出的下一個問題。
Christian F. Wetherbee - Research Analyst
Christian F. Wetherbee - Research Analyst
I wanted to ask, Angeliki, maybe as you think about this entity, so you have, obviously, exposure to multiple end markets here. And I guess, each one of them is in a little bit of a different part of the cycle. So as you're thinking about incremental capital and where you want to put that to work, how are you approaching that? I understand the newbuild opportunities you have both on the container and the tanker. But as we're thinking about where you think about putting new capital work, where you'd want some emphasis to be placed, where would it be?
我想問,Angeliki,也許當你想到這個實體時,顯然你在這裡接觸到了多個終端市場。我想,他們每個人都處於週期的不同部分。因此,當您考慮增量資本以及您希望將其運用到何處時,您將如何實現這一目標?我了解貨櫃和油輪上的新建機會。但是,當我們考慮您考慮在哪裡投入新的資本工作時,您希望將重點放在哪裡,會放在哪裡?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Chris, the reality is a lot of calculations, a lot of work trying to see what is the best opportunity. I mean you saw where we allocated a good amount of money this quarter. We have entered a new asset class, the Aframax MR2s. And we build it on that because we see efficient vessel that have the specifications that we have additional specifications. We see a lot of opportunities with the oil majors on trades that are actually expanding. Same with MR2s, we see certain counterparties that they need specific need with shortfall has higher emissions, but if we have energy-efficient value, that can really mitigate the situation. So we look at the opportunity and build on that. On containers, I mean this was a previous transaction and fixed at a good time. But we always review and we see what makes the long-term returns, what will give us the best residual value and provide us an attractive return. So this picture is a very simple thing: attractive return over 10% and have low residual value risk because the asset has a longer duration.
克里斯,現實是大量的計算,大量的工作試圖找出最好的機會。我的意思是你看到了我們本季分配了大量資金的地方。我們進入了一個新的資產類別:阿芙拉型油輪 MR2。我們以此為基礎建造它,因為我們看到高效的船舶具有我們有附加規格的規格。我們看到石油巨頭在貿易上有很多機會,這些機會實際上正在擴大。與 MR2 一樣,我們看到某些交易對手,他們需要特定的需求,但排放量較高,但如果我們具有節能價值,那確實可以緩解這種情況。因此,我們著眼於機會並以此為基礎。在容器上,我的意思是這是之前的交易,並且在適當的時候修復了。但我們總是進行審查,看看什麼能帶來長期回報,什麼會為我們帶來最佳的剩餘價值,並為我們提供有吸引力的回報。所以這張圖是一個非常簡單的事情:超過10%的有吸引力的回報,並且由於資產的久期較長而具有較低的殘值風險。
Christian F. Wetherbee - Research Analyst
Christian F. Wetherbee - Research Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And that makes sense. And I guess maybe on the other side of that coin, so I think there was 14 vessels that were sold year-to-date. Could you talk a little bit about how you think about opportunities to maybe monetize some of the fleet and maybe where you want to emphasize or where you see relative value between asset values and charter rates today?
好的。這很有幫助。我很感激。這是有道理的。我想也許是硬幣的另一面,所以我認為今年迄今已售出 14 艘船。您能否談談您如何看待將部分機隊貨幣化的機會,以及您想要強調的地方,或者您認為當今資產價值和包機費率之間的相對價值?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Basically, there is a graph that we have unit recovery that we see tankers strong values, of course, strong returns. I mean we optimize that fleet. And then on the dry bulk, you have more or less volumes and long-term net of the vessels, approximately about 80%, 90%. So what we are doing is basically, we see exactly what is maintenance CapEx, what is the age of the vessel, knowing the regulatory environment for the next couple of years, meaning that you will have carbon tax. In Europe, there will be requirements. So you target a vessel that makes sense, add value to sales. And we have done that. You think that about for the fleet we have, on an average year, we should have about at least 10 vessels renewal basically, just to renew and keep the age. So yes, we had more vessels in the beginning. This will in 2024 drop to about on the average about vessels. This is not mathematical. It depends on the market, but this is approximately the kind of a renewal you will need.
基本上,有一個圖表顯示我們的單位回收率表明我們看到油輪的強勁價值,當然,強勁的回報。我的意思是我們優化該機隊。然後在乾散貨方面,你有或多或少的體積和長期的船舶淨值,大約是 80%、90%。所以我們所做的基本上是,我們準確地了解什麼是維護資本支出,船舶的年齡是多少,了解未來幾年的監管環境,這意味著您將徵收碳稅。在歐洲,會有要求。因此,您的目標是一艘有意義的船舶,可以增加銷售價值。我們已經做到了。你認為對於我們現有的船隊來說,平均每年我們至少應該有大約10艘船更新,基本上,只是為了更新和保持船齡。所以是的,我們一開始就有更多的船隻。到 2024 年,這一數字將下降至船舶平均數量左右。這不是數學問題。這取決於市場,但這大約是您需要的更新類型。
Christian F. Wetherbee - Research Analyst
Christian F. Wetherbee - Research Analyst
Okay. That's the way should be thinking about it and obviously, I guess, market determine market fluctuations will determine kind of how aggressive you are, I guess. And then maybe just one more on the tanker cycle as you guys think about it. Obviously, some macroeconomic concerns flowing through here, I guess. You had said you always do a really nice job outlining your thoughts on what the market looks like. I guess, as you're thinking about the potential for either a recession or slowdown materially in U.S. economic activity and demand pull kind of in developed markets, how do you think about that kind of plays out in 2024 and influences your view on oil demand?
好的。這就是應該考慮的方式,顯然,我想,市場決定市場波動將決定你的激進程度。當你們想到這一點時,也許還有一個關於油輪週期的事情。顯然,我猜這是一些宏觀經濟擔憂的影響。您曾說過,您總是能很好地概述您對市場的看法。我想,當您考慮美國經濟活動可能出現衰退或大幅放緩以及已開發市場的需求拉動時,您如何看待這種情況在 2024 年發生並影響您對石油需求的看法?
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Today, the U.S. economy is pretty healthy. There is cloud. I mean there is definitely clouds both on the interest rate, but we don't see a recession today. But you also have a big effect from the wars in Ukraine and Israel. Basically, the Ukrainian war added to the ton miles. This is something that doesn't change. It will continue in our system. There is longtail miles on crude and product. And this is without taking any consideration of any potential. And I don't know how that will be potential disruption because of the world. And that can have quite an effect. Don't forget the area has a lot of the oil, a lot of the gas, it can be significant in case of a disruption there.
如今,美國經濟相當健康。有云。我的意思是,利率方面肯定存在陰雲,但我們今天並沒有看到經濟衰退。但烏克蘭和以色列的戰爭也產生了巨大影響。基本上,烏克蘭戰爭增加了噸英里。這是不會改變的事。它將繼續在我們的系統中。原油和成品油有長尾里程。這是沒有考慮任何潛力的情況。我不知道這將如何對世界造成潛在的破壞。這會產生相當大的影響。不要忘記該地區有大量的石油和天然氣,如果那裡發生中斷,這可能會很嚴重。
Operator
Operator
And we have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Ms. Angeliki Frangou for any additional or closing remarks.
我們已經到達了規定的提問時間。我現在將把電話轉回給 Angeliki Frangou 女士,請其發表補充或結束語。
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Angeliki N. Frangou - Chairwoman & CEO
Thank you. This concludes our results for the quarter.
謝謝。我們本季的業績到此結束。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
謝謝。今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。