Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for joining us for Navios Maritime Partners' First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. With us today from the company are Chairman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Efstratios Desypris; and Executive Vice President of Business Development, Mr. Georgios Achniotis. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast. To access the webcast please go to the Investors section of Navios Partners' website at www.navios-mlp.com. You'll see the webcast link in the middle of the page, and a copy of the presentation referencing today's earnings conference call will also be found there.

Now I will review the safe harbor statement. This conference call could contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 about Navios Partners. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. Such forward-looking statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of Navios Partners' management and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

Such risks, some are fully discussed in Navios Partners' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These information set forth herein should be understood in light of such risks. Navios Partners does not assume any obligation to update the information contained in this conference call.

The agenda for today's call is as follows: first, Ms. Frangou will offer opening remarks. Next, Mr. Desypris will give an overview of Navios Partners' financial results. Then Mr. Achniotis will provide an operational update and an industry overview. And lastly, we'll open the call to take questions. Now I turn the call over to Navios Partners Chairman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou. Angeliki?

Thank you, Doris, and good morning to all of you joining us on today's call. I am pleased with the results for the first quarter of 2021. During Q1, total revenue of Navios Partners and average containers was $108.8 million and total adjusted EBITDA was $56.4 million.

Post-merger, as you can see on Slide 4, approximately 57% of our fleet is comprised of dry bulk vessels and another 43% of containerships. Calculated by number of vessels. We expect these 2 segments to serve us well through normal industry cyclicality. Slide 5, we show the world GDP growth since 1970. As you can see, global GDP growth is projected to be 6% in 2021. This will be the highest growth rate in the past 50 years. The percentage increase also understates the expected impact.

Nominal global GDP in 2019 was about $88 trillion. This is almost 30x larger than global GDP of $3 trillion in 1970s. Stated another way, the expected 2021 GDP growth is almost 2x the entire GDP of the world in 1970. Consequently, we are optimistic about demand for dry bulk and dry vessels throughout 2021.

Slide 6 details our premier dry cargo shipping platform. Navios Partners has a top 10 publicly listed dry cargo fleet with 89 vessels comprised of 51 dry bulk vessels and 38 container ships. We expect that, that diversified fleet would insulate us from some industry cyclicality as dry bulk and dry cargo have different demand drivers given that 1 segment is based on transportation of raw materials composed of mineral and agricultural commodities, and the other segment is focused on transportation of finished goods. You can already see the impact of these different drivers in an available days, given the strength in the container industry, in part driven by pandemic economic needs. We fixed about 89% of our available days.

In contrast, while the dry bulk began to strengthen in 2021 and is continuing, we have over 62% of our dry bulk available days open or on index-linked charters. We expect that these 2 segments housed in a single company make for a stronger entity. The fiscal strength of our operating platform is visible in our operating breakeven. Contracted revenue for the remaining 9 months of 2021 exceeds total estimated fleet expense by $21.2 million. We are still well positioned to capture the increasing charter rate as about 40% all of our available days are either open or index linked. Lastly, we have a strong balance sheet with low leverage.

Our net debt to capitalization is 38.3%. I note that as vessel values increase in response to the rate market vessel book values are less than the current vessel values. This is in sharp contrast to the past number of years where vessel book values were larger than market values often significantly.

Slide 7 goes through NMM's recent development. During Q1, we generated $108.8 million in total revenue, $56.4 million in total adjusted EBITDA and $27.1 million total adjusted net income. We completed the merger on March 31. However, even without the merger, we were renewing and expanding our fleet. We agreed to acquire 11 vessels with an average age of 3.4 years for about $360 million. And to sell 5 vessels with an average date of 13 years for $66.7 million as a result of all the activities, our container ship fleet capacity increased by 3x, while we reduced the average age of our company ships by 11%.

For the dry bulk segment, we increased capacity by 22%, reduced the average age by 14%. As an update to our debt facilities, we arranged almost $500 million in new financing year-to-date, $200 million of which will be used to refinance existing facilities and $300 million of which will be used to finance new acquisitions. $200 million of these new acquisitions will be on bareboat. Moreover, post this refinancing, we have no significant debt maturities until 2023. Additionally, we have strong cash flow potential for the remaining 9 months of the year. We have 22,949 available days.

Our current contracted revenue exceeds the total fleet expenses by $21.2 million and about 40% of our available days as they open or index linked, allowing us to generate significant additionally free cash flow. Slide 8 further describes our fleeting renewal and expansion. As I mentioned previously, our 89-vessel fleet is top 10 among globally publicly listed dry cargo fleet. We acquired 29 container ships through the merger. We are acquiring an additional 11 vessels for $360 million, while selling 5 vessels for $66.7 million. Since the end our fleet has grown by 65% or 35 vessels. Diving into each vessel class NMM containership fleet capacity has grown by 3x while its average age has reduced by 11%.

In NMM, dry bulk fleet capacity has grown by 22%, while the average age has reduced by 14%. Slide 9 dives into the details of $500 million in new financing arrangements that I touched upon a little bit earlier. We are refinancing all debt that was maturing in 2021. Of the $500 million in new financing arranged, $200 million will be used to refinance existing facilities and $300 million to fund new vessel acquisitions.

Moreover, post this refinancing, we have no significant debt maturities until 2023. Slide 10 details our operating cash flow for the remaining 9 months of 2021. 60.8% of our available days are fixed at an average rate of $20,000 net per day. The remaining 39.2% of our available days are either open or index linked. This provides us with significant additional upside. Our contracted revenue alone exceeds our total estimated fleet expenses by $21.2 million. It is simple calculation to see our cash flow potential, given the current market average daily charter rate of $29,839 per day in our available days.

Thus, we believe NMM is well positioned for a strong 2021. Slide 11 shows our liquidity position. As of March 31, 2021, we had total cash of $51.4 million and total borrowings of $701.2 million. Our net-debt-to-book capitalization is 38.3% and our debt maturities are staggered with no significant debt maturities until 2023. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Efstratios Desypris, Navios Partners' CFO, who will take through the financial result of the first quarter of 2021. Efstratios?

Thank you, Angeliki, and good morning, all. I will briefly review our average financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2021. The financial information is included in the press release and summarized in the slide presentation available on the company's website.

As Angeliki mentioned earlier, the merger with Navios Containers was completed on March 31. As a result, the balance sheet of Navios Containers together with the expected purchase price allocation adjustments are included in Navios Partners' balance sheet as of the end of the quarter. However, the results of operations for Q1 do not include the results of Navios Containers, and this will be included commencing from April 1. In order to understand better the new combined entity, we are presenting the results of operations for Q1 2021 for both Navios Partners and Navios Containers as well as the total results of the 2 entities added together.

As this is more representative of the results of operation of Navios Partners going forward, the below presentation discusses the total results of the 2 entities. Moving to the earnings highlights on Slide 12. Total revenue for Q1 2021 was $108.8 million. Approximately 60% of revenue comes from Navios Partners, while the remaining is the revenue of Navios Containers. EBITDA net income for Q1 2021 include $80.8 million of gain from the revaluation of our investment in Navios Containers as a result of the merger.

I would like to point out here that in 2019, our investment was written down by $42.6 million. Also included in EBITDA and net income in Q1 2021 is a $44.1 million gain from the completion of the merger and the purchase price allocation to the assets and liabilities of Navios Containers. Excluding these items, total adjusted EBITDA for Q1 amounted to $56.4 million, of which $33.7 million comes from Navios Partners and $22.7 million from Navios Containers.

Total adjusted net income was $87.1 million. During the quarter, we had a total of 6,811 available days with a fleet utilization of approximately 99%. Turning to Slide 13. I will briefly discuss on key balance sheet data as of March 31, 2021. Cash and cash equivalents were $51.4 million. Long-term borrowings, including the current portion, net of deferred fees, amounted to $701.2 million. Net debt-to-book capitalization were reduced to 38.3% at the end of the quarter.

Slide 14 shows the details of our fleet. Our fleet is in the top 10 publicly listed dry cargo fleet globally, as measured by number of vessels. We have a large modern and diverse fleet of 89 vessels with a total capacity of 8.2 million deadweight tons. Our fleet consists of 51 dry bulk vessels and 38 containerships.

In Slide 15, you can see our chartering strategy for the remaining 9 months of 2021. Our diversified fleet allows us to take advantage of the different fundamentals across the sectors we operate to maximize profitability. We have currently fixed 60.8% of our 22,949 available days for the remaining 9 months of 2021. We have capitalized on the strength of the containership market and fixed almost 90% of our available containership days enjoying healthy rates. Additionally, we are positioning our dry bulk fleet for what we hope will be a strong second half of 2021, and we have market exposure on 62.4% of our days.

On Slide 16, you can see our ESG initiatives. Maritime shipping is the most environmentally friendly means of transportation as it is the most carbon-efficient mode of transport. We aspire to have 0 emissions by 2050. In this process, we have been pioneering, and we are adopting certain environmental regulations after 2 years in advance, aiming to be one of the first fleet to achieve full compliance.

Navios is a socially conscious group. Whose core values include diversity, inclusion and safety. We have very strong corporate governance and clear code of ethics. Our Board is composed by majority independent directors and independent committees, not over management operations. I now pass the call to go George Achniotis, Executive Vice President of Business Development, to discuss the industry section. George?

Thank you, Stratos. Please turn to Slide '18. With the help of a strong second half, 2020 ended the year with our BDI averaging 1,066. Today, the BDI stands at 2,889 in with a year-to-date average up over 200% compared to the same period last year, and the highest it has been in 11 years.

Governments having put in place emergency monitoring fiscal plans to support the economies have kick-started faster-than-expected the recovery in the world economy. This has led the IMF to increase its 2021 world GDP growth projection to 6%, the highest in 50 years and a further 4.4% in '22. Pent-up demand and restocking is expected to push demand growth well above net fleet growth, supporting the recent dramatic rising rates. In what is normally a seasonal low period, rates in all asset classes have risen sharply, reflecting surging trade, driven by strong demand for both major and minor bulk commodities. Q1 2021 average rates are the highest since 2010. 2021 dry bulk trade growth projections were recently revised upwards to 3.8% and 1.9% increase in '22.

Turning to Slide 19. Demand is forecast to outpace net fleet growth in both '21 and '22. The graph on the left shows that for 2021, dry bulk demand for the 3 major cargoes of iron ore, coal and grain is focused to increase by 4% compared to 2020. If you look at the graph on the right, net fleet growth is forecast to be 2.8% this year and 1% for '22. Net fleet growth is expected to remain low over the next few years as the order book is the lowest on record.

Turn to Slide 20. Despite the pandemic, global iron ore demand is expected to increase by 3.1% this year. Additional availability of iron ore shipments to China are expected to increase as steel mills replenish stockpiles, driving demand for Capesize vessels. Forecasts are also for growth in iron ore imports around the world, as the effects of the pandemic recede. Europe's imports are expected to grow by 17%. In Asia, excluding China, is expected to import 12% more iron ore in 2021 than in 2020.

Please turn to Slide 21. Asian coal imports, which account for over 80% of the world seaborne coal trade, are expected to increase by 4.8% in '21, following a decline of 6.5% in 2020. The 2020 decrease was mainly attributed to Indian and Chinese imports declining by 11% and 8%, respectively. Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries increased coal imports by 11% in 2020 and are expected to further increase imports by 8% this year.

Turning to Slide 22. An ever increasing world population, food security issues driven by the pandemic as well as increasing growth in demand worldwide, continues to support the global grain trade. While grain production this year will reach a record according to the International Grains Council and the USDA. Worldwide grain trade has been growing by 5% CAGR since 2008, mainly driven by Asian demand, which increased by 14.4% in 2020 and is expected to increase a further 5.5% in '21. Overall, total world grain trade increased by 7.1% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 20.5% in '21.

Please turn to Slide 23. The current order book stands at a record low of 5.5% of the fleet. New building contracting was down 49% in 2020 compared to '19. Through the end of April '21, contracting is down by about 17% compared to the same period last year. Accordingly, 2021 net fleet growth is expected at 2.8% and 1% for '22, below the projected increase in dry bulk demand for 40 years.

Turning to Slide 24. Versus over 20 years of age are about 7.5% of the total fleet, which compares favorably with the previously mentioned record low order book. Scrapping totaled 15.8 million tonnes in 2020, almost double the 2019 total. Year-to-date scrapping has totaled 4.3 million tonnes, which is on pace for a total of 14 million tonnes.

Please turn to Slide 26, focusing on the container industry. As previously mentioned, stimulus measures have caused recovery of consumption in the advanced economies at the same time that there is increasing the industrial production and economic growth in China. This targeted stimulus has led to a historic turnaround in global container trade. As you can see in the chart on the lower right, freight rates for all main routes from China grows dramatically from midyear 2020. Increases in consumer demand for goods, port congestion and restocking led to containership demand growth of 6% in '21 and 3.8% in '22. The increased demand is expected to exceed supply in both years.

Please turn to Slide 27. The recent rapid market recovery has caused extremely high demand for available tonnage, which is in short supply across all segments. In particular, the extremely tight availability of Panamaxes, combined with port congestion, increase in trade and lack of newbuildings has propelled periods of time charter rates to hit 16-year highs of 43.5% -- dollars per day for periods up to a year. SCFI box rates have climbed 264% from April 2020 to April '21 spared by the early restart of the Chinese economy and from continuing demand for consumables and pandemic-related supplies worldwide.

Turning to Slide 28. Low containership ordering for the -- over the past 2 years has set the stage for manageable fleet growth of 4.3% this year and 2.4% next. Even in this high-demand environment, scrapping will continue as 8.4% of the fleet is currently 20 years of age or older. In conclusion, positive demand fundamentals, mainly due to the restart of economic activity around the world, along with reduced fleet availability, should continue to support both the dry bulk and containerized shipping industries in their continuing effort to navigate through the easing pandemic storm. And this concludes my presentation. I would now like to turn the call over to Angeliki for her final comments. Angeliki?

Thank you, George. This concludes our formal presentation, and we open the call to questions.

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

This is Liam on for Chris. So first, I just wanted to ask about your fleet renewal program. I know you guys have been very active with vessel purchases and sales so far in 2021. But I just wanted to understand that after taking into account all these transactions, do you believe that your fleet renewal is largely complete at this point? Or do you still believe that you have a lot more transactions that might need to take place before you can get your average age for your vessels down to the level that you're looking for?

I think the real -- you have 2 elements. You have the fleet renewal and the business model. And basically, the strength of our business model is the diversification so what we are doing is we have been -- of course, we are selling more of the vessels. We are getting younger vessels, and we are positioning our portfolio. And you have seen that we have been extremely busy. That has provided a great strength.

I mean, we are in 2 sectors, the container market, the dry bulk market, totally different dynamics. We are having the container market -- that shipping is a big category, and we have seen the different dynamics of shipping. Container -- the container market is all about finished products. Used to be in the beginning of the recovery about, what, PPEs, personal protective equipment, now it's about all these electronics that are needed, and there is more to come from this. And this is a market that is more of a time charter market, period market, and you have seen we have taken a good advantage doing almost 90% of our days fixed there. While we are also in the dry bulk market, an area where is in an earlier stage of recovery. It's about -- commodities about, not only food stuff and security -- food security, but also minerals, about steel production.

So this is an area where we see a lot of upside coming. And it is -- we have over 60% of our days, available days, open is a market that is more accustomed to spot and index, well-developed market, and that's where we see that the cash flow generation can be quite significant. So our position is based on our view on this segment and also on where we are in the different segments.

Okay. That makes sense. And just kind of following up on some of the points you mentioned about the containership market. So I know that 89% of your days for 2021 are fixed. But I'm just -- I know that also the rates have surged recently. So I'm just kind of wondering if you could explain a little bit more about your chartering strategy.

And given the recent surge in rates, are you guys looking to lock in those vessels at multiyear charters? Or are you just still -- are you more interested in keeping them on relatively short-term charters to still take advantage of any potential further increases in rates?

That's a very good question. We -- the thing is that we are capturing very good cash flows, and we have seen it going from the 20s to the 30s to the 40s. And we have been able to capture this on multi-year, but you have to understand that the container market is a time charter market. So you will fix it and you will use it as a portfolio. It will never be a spot market. Your upside, if you want to see the real barometer of the spot market, is the dry bulk where you can have an index -- like the vessels we are buying at a premium to the index. So you have every day, in calculating to the new rate. So basically, you are facing and you will -- you have a view on the market and you are sitting, but no matter what, it will be a period charter on the container market.

You don't have the spot market that we have on the dry bulk. And all this -- managing these available days and creating this hard work is what has done, provides us now to be with 9,000 -- if you have seen in the Page 10, you have about 9,000 open and indexed days at an average market rate of around 29,000, almost 30,000. And the dry bulk is something you can see that, that resets every day and easily you can capture this upside. The majority of these days are basically dry bulk days.

Okay. And just one final question, just from more -- from a modeling standpoint. I know that you have about 14,000 days fixed at $20,000 per day and then about 9,000 open, as you mentioned. Should we be just thinking that your average combined TCE rate should be above $20,000 per day for the remaining quarters of 2021, based on the current rate market and the fixed days as well?

And as Angeliki mentioned, you see in Page 10, I mean, based on the current market rates, the average of our fleet, the open days of our fleet is around almost $30,000 per day. So assuming that this market will continue. This is going to be the mix of our fleet. But as I said, I mean, depending on the strength of the market always.

Your next question comes from the line of Randy Giveans with Jefferies.

This is Chris Robertson on for Randy. So referring to the active S&P market you guys were involved in. Do you expect that you'll continue to be active? Is this going to slow? Or are you still out there looking at potential acquisitions? And lastly, what was the reasoning behind the sale of the dedication?

It's always in -- we have a portfolio. And in the portfolio, you select where you buy and where you sell. I mean if you -- relative to what you bought, you create a very comfortable and high return. I think it makes sense to take advantage of the of the opportunity because you can redeploy in an asset that you can actually see the run-up of this portfolio.

That is what means diversification and investing. And you may say you are investing at a rate that is about $10 million above what has the last sale happened. And you can time charter another vessel to about $45,000 for a long period. So it is a decision. It's an economic rationale, whatever it makes sense depending on conditions you will do.

Okay. That's fair. So I guess, with the balance sheet in great shape, the merger completed, the new vessels acquired, going forward, what will it take to increase the distribution? And how do you think you'll balance that with unit repurchases -- unit repurchases now that you're trading at a discount to NAV?

I will say that, and this is something that I will repeat, we are in an early stage of recovery on segments. We have been on the last 7 years in a difficult market, and we are seeing a market that is really strengthening. But basically, you have been in an early stage for that. We like -- we see that there is a great opportunity on the returns that we'll provide to our investors if we invest money today.

And also, because the cash flow that we will be generating will be quite significant by any measure. And also, the other issue that we are looking very much is about a low leverage. Today, we have a low leverage. And this is a significant cash flow for our investors and making sure that we're acquiring. And as I said, we are in an early stage of the recovery and also keeping a low level that will provide us good returns in the overall cycle.

Okay. Yes. And last question for us. Just in terms of operational strategy for those dry bulk vessels that are on open days or expiring in the coming months, what's your strategy in terms of spot versus longer-term time charters for those?

On the dry bulk is a more spot market. So I will say that the reality is that you will see it more doing index. I mean, the dry bulk market has an index market that is very well developed. You have a good representation of what the index is, and we have really managed very well our portfolio to do index, which basically initiates every day, and we usually have on days, the ability to convert to every -- any quarter or year converted into fixed.

So basically, what you will see on the dry bulk, we feel that we will do more index days. So I -- that is the strategy we usually follow because it's well-developed index, and you have the ability to capture the upside that the market is firming up.

At this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn the call back over to Angeliki for closing remarks.

Thank you. This completes our Q1 results. Thank you.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.