Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings call for Annaly Capital Management. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Annaly Capital Management 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Kensil, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的活動正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給投資者關係總監肖恩·肯西爾。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to the fourth quarter 2025 earnings call for Annaly Capital Management. Any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, which are outlined in the Risk Factors section in our most recent annual and quarterly SEC filings. Actual events and results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. We encourage you to read the disclaimer in our earnings release in addition to our quarterly and annual filings. Additionally, the content of this conference call may contain time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date hereof.

早安，歡迎參加 Annaly Capital Management 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。今天電話會議中作出的任何前瞻性陳述均受某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已在我們最新的年度和季度美國證券交易委員會文件中的「風險因素」部分進行了概述。實際事件和結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。我們建議您除了閱讀季度和年度報告外，還要閱讀我們的獲利報告中的免責聲明。此外，本次電話會議的內容可能包含有時效性的信息，這些信息僅在會議召開之日有效。

We do not undertake and specifically disclaim any obligation to update or revise this information. During this call, we may present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our earnings release. Content referenced in today's call can be found in our fourth quarter 2025 Investor Presentation and fourth quarter 2025 financial supplement, both found under the Presentations section of our website. Please also note this event is being recorded.

我們不承擔更新或修改此資訊的義務，並特此聲明免除任何此類義務。在本次電話會議中，我們可能會同時提供GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。我們的獲利報告中包含了GAAP與非GAAP指標的調節表。今天電話會議中提到的內容可以在我們網站的「簡報」部分找到的 2025 年第四季投資者簡報和 2025 年第四季財務補充資料中找到。請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

Participants on this morning's call include David Finkelstein, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Chief Investment Officer; Serena Wolfe, Chief Financial Officer; Mike Fania, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Head of Residential Credit; V.S. Srinivasan, Head of Agency and Ken Adler, Head of Mortgage Servicing Rights. And with that, I'll turn the call over to David.

今天早上電話會議的參與者包括：首席執行官兼聯席首席投資官大衛·芬克爾斯坦；首席財務官塞雷娜·沃爾夫；聯合首席投資官兼住宅信貸主管邁克·法尼亞；代理主管V.S.斯里尼瓦桑；以及抵押貸款服務權主管肯·阿德勒。接下來，我將把電話交給大衛。

Thank you, Sean. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call. Today, I'll open with a brief overview of the macro and market environment and then touch on our performance for the quarter and the year, following which I'll provide an update on each of our three investment strategies and conclude with our outlook for 2026. Serena will then discuss our financials before opening up the call to Q&A.

謝謝你，肖恩。各位早安，感謝各位參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。今天，我將首先簡要概述宏觀和市場環境，然後簡要介紹我們本季和本年度的業績，隨後分別介紹我們三項投資策略的最新情況，最後展望我們對 2026 年的展望。接下來，小威將討論我們的財務狀況，然後開放問答環節。

Now starting with the macro landscape. The fourth quarter supported the prevailing narrative of a solid U.S. economy. Although official data flow was disrupted by the government shutdown. Reports received thus far suggest that the expansion continues at an above-trend pace. The labor market remains soft, however, as hiring slowed further in Q4, but limited layoffs and a reduction in labor force growth have muted the rise in the unemployment rate.

現在先從宏觀層面來看。第四季的數據印證了美國經濟穩健發展的普遍觀點。儘管政府停擺導致官方資料流中斷。目前收到的報告顯示，經濟擴張速度仍高於趨勢水準。然而，勞動市場依然疲軟，第四季招聘進一步放緩，但有限的裁員和勞動力成長的減少抑制了失業率的上升。

Fixed income markets exhibited another strong quarter, in turn helping 2025 register the highest total return in the U.S. aggregate bond index since 2020. The market benefited from continued strong inflows into bond funds and the ongoing decrease in both implied and realized rate volatility to the lowest levels since 2021. This decline in volatility was supported by a more predictable outlook for monetary policy and following 75 basis points of aggregate rate cuts in 2025, markets currently priced nearly two additional cuts later this year. The pace and realization of those projected cuts will be dependent on developments in the labor market, stability and inflation, and the composition of the FOMC going forward.

固定收益市場又一個季度表現強勁，進而幫助 2025 年美國綜合債券指數取得了自 2020 年以來最高的總回報。市場受益於債券基金持續強勁的資金流入，以及隱含利率和實際利率波動率持續下降至 2021 年以來的最低水準。波動性的下降得益於貨幣政策前景更加可預測，繼 2025 年累計降息 75 個基點之後，市場目前預計今年稍後還將有近兩次降息。這些預期減產的速度和實現將取決於勞動市場的發展、經濟穩定和通貨膨脹，以及聯邦公開市場委員會未來的組成。

The yield curve further steepened during the quarter as short-term yields fell, while long-term yields rose modestly. Swap spreads continue to widen partially driven by a shift on the part of the Fed from quantitative tightening to balance sheet expansion through reserve management purchases and bills, which served to increase the stability in short-term funding markets. And amid this constructive environment, our portfolio generated an economic return of 8.6% for the fourth quarter, with all three businesses contributing solid returns. For the full year 2025, we've delivered an economic return of just over 20% and a total shareholder return of 40%, underscoring the strength and resilience of our diversified housing finance strategies. And notably, we've been able to produce these results with a conservative leverage profile and our economic leverage decreased modestly to 5.6 times on the quarter.

本季殖利率曲線進一步陡峭化，短期殖利率下降，而長期殖利率小幅上升。互換利差持續擴大，部分原因是聯準會從量化緊縮轉向透過儲備管理購買和票據來擴張資產負債表，這有助於提高短期融資市場的穩定性。在這種積極的環境下，我們的投資組合在第四季度實現了 8.6% 的經濟回報，所有三項業務都貢獻了穩健的回報。2025 年全年，我們實現了略高於 20% 的經濟回報和 40% 的股東總回報，凸顯了我們多元化住房融資策略的實力和韌性。值得注意的是，我們以保守的槓桿水平取得了這些成果，而本季我們的經濟槓桿率略微下降至 5.6 倍。

Our earnings available for distribution rose marginally to $0.74 again out earning our dividend. And also to note, we remained active in capital markets, raising $560 million of common equity through our ATM in Q4 bringing total equity raised in 2025 to $2.9 billion, inclusive of our Series J preferred stock issuance this past summer. With the capital raised, we were able to accretively grow our portfolio by 30% on the year with each of our three strategies demonstrating double-digit growth. Now turning to our investment businesses and beginning with Agency. Our portfolio ended 2025 at $93 billion in market value, an increase of nearly $6 billion in the quarter and $22 billion over the course of the year with Agency ending the year representing 62% of the firm's capital. In addition to MBS benefiting fundamentally from lower volatility in a steeper yield curve, sector has exhibited a highly supportive supply and demand picture as well.

可供分配的收益略微上升至 0.74 美元，再次超過了我們的股息收益。另外值得一提的是，我們繼續活躍於資本市場，在第四季度透過我們的 ATM 籌集了 5.6 億美元的普通股，使 2025 年籌集的總股本達到 29 億美元，其中包括我們去年夏天發行的 J 系列優先股。憑藉籌集的資金，我們的投資組合在一年內實現了 30% 的增值成長，我們的三個策略都實現了兩位數的成長。現在轉向我們的投資業務，首先從代理業務開始。截至 2025 年底，我們的投資組合市值達到 930 億美元，本季成長近 60 億美元，全年成長 220 億美元，其中 Agency 業務在年底占公司資本的 62%。除了殖利率曲線陡峭、波動性降低這一根本因素使抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 受益外，該行業的供需狀況也十分有利。

In particular, strong and consistent bond fund inflows, REIT equity raises, and GSE portfolio growth of $50 billion through year-end against the backdrop of net MBS supply surprising to the downside, helped fuel spread contraction in the second half of 2025. With respect to our portfolio activity, our purchase is centered on adding 5% coupons evenly split between pools and TBAs. Given the range-bound rate environment and steeper curve, we were comfortable taking on current coupon exposure to drive higher returns in light of the anticipated reduced hedging costs. And we also grew our Agency CMBS portfolio by roughly $1 billion given the sector's relative attractiveness compared to lower coupon MBS. With mortgage rates approaching 6% and recent prepay activity highlighting a more reactive borrower, higher coupons lagged on the coupon stack.

尤其值得一提的是，強勁且持續的債券基金流入、REIT 股權融資以及 GSE 投資組合在年底前增長 500 億美元，而 MBS 淨供應量卻意外下降，這些因素共同推動了 2025 年下半年利差的收窄。就我們的投資組合活動而言，我們的購買重點是增加 5% 的優惠券，這些優惠券平均分配到資金池和 TBA 中。鑑於利率環境處於區間波動狀態且殖利率曲線更加陡峭，考慮到預期對沖成本降低，我們樂於承擔當前的票息風險敞口，以期獲得更高的回報。鑑於機構商業抵押貸款支持證券 (CMBS) 相對於低息抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 的吸引力，我們也增加了約 10 億美元的機構 CMBS 投資組合。由於抵押貸款利率接近 6%，且近期提前還款活動表明借款人反應更加積極，因此較高的票息在票息疊加中滯後。

However, we have deliberately constructed our specified pool portfolio with enough call protection to withstand a lower rate environment. For example, our 6% and 6.5% coupon pools have prepaid 40% slower than that a generic cheapest to deliver collateral, and we anticipate our holdings in these coupons should provide durable carry for years to come. Now our hedge position remained broadly stable this quarter, consistent with our strategy of maintaining a conservative rate posture. With volatility at some of the lowest levels we've experienced over the past five years, our duration management focused predominantly on hedging new asset purchases using a combination of both treasury futures and swaps.

但是，我們特意建構了包含足夠贖回保護的指定資金池投資組合，以因應較低的利率環境。例如，我們的 6% 和 6.5% 的優惠券池的預付速度比一般最便宜的抵押品慢 40%，我們預計我們持有的這些優惠券將在未來幾年內提​​供持久的收益。本季我們的對沖部位基本上保持穩定，這與我們維持保守利率立場的策略相符。由於波動性處於過去五年來的最低水平，我們的久期管理主要集中在使用國債期貨和互換相結合的方式來對沖新的資產購買。

Now shifting to residential credit. Our portfolio ended the fourth quarter at $8 billion in market value, up $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, representing approximately 19% of the firm's capital. Non-Agency residential credit was relatively range-bound throughout the quarter with AAA non-QM spreads, ending the year marginally tighter at 125 to the curve. Q4 represented another record quarter for our Onslow Bay franchise as we achieved all-time highs across lock volume, fundings and securitization issuance. During the quarter, our correspondent channel locked and funded $6.4 billion and $5 billion, respectively. We settled an additional $800 million of whole loans via bulk acquisitions and we closed eight securitizations totaling $4.6 billion.

現在轉向住宅信貸。截至第四季末，我們的投資組合市值達到 80 億美元，季增 11 億美元，約佔公司資本的 19%。本季非機構住宅信貸相對穩定，AAA 非合格抵押貸款利差在一定範圍內波動，年底略微收窄至曲線的 125%。第四季對於我們的 Onslow Bay 特許經營業務而言又是創紀錄的一個季度，我們在鎖定交易量、融資和證券化發行方面都達到了歷史最高水平。本季度，我們的通訊管道分別鎖定和資助了 64 億美元和 50 億美元。我們透過批量收購解決了另外 8 億美元的整筆貸款，並完成了 8 項證券化交易，總額達 46 億美元。

And this securitization activity resulted in the creation of $570 million of proprietary OBX assets on the quarter with mid-teens expected ROEs. And throughout the entire year, we locked over $23 billion of loans to the correspondent and funded $16.5 billion exclusively through that channel, representing an increase of 30% and 40% year-over-year, respectively. During 2025, we closed 29 securitizations for an aggregate $15.2 billion, generating approximately $1.9 billion of high-quality retained assets for Annaly in our joint venture while remaining firmly entrenched as the largest nonbank issuer in the residential credit sector.

這項證券化活動在本季創造了 5.7 億美元的 OBX 專有資產，預計淨資產收益率將達到 15% 左右。全年，我們向代理商鎖定了超過 230 億美元的貸款，並透過該管道提供了 165 億美元的資金，分別年增 30% 和 40%。2025 年，我們完成了 29 項證券化交易，總額達 152 億美元，為我們的合資企業 Annaly 創造了約 19 億美元的高品質留存資產，同時穩固地保持了作為住宅信貸領域最大的非銀行發行機構的地位。

And even with the continued growth in the Onslow Bay channel and securitization program, we remain disciplined on credit with our current locked pipeline representing a 762 weighted average FICO and a 68 original LTV with limited layer risk. Now the first few weeks of 2026 have been marked by credit spread tightening as both the corporate credit and structured finance asset classes have strengthened given the movement in the Agency MBS market. Now this is a supportive backdrop for our business as declining cost of funds and stability in capital markets should keep our volumes elevated.

即使昂斯洛灣通路和證券化計畫持續成長，我們仍保持信貸紀律，目前鎖定的貸款項目平均加權 FICO 為 762，原始 LTV 為 68，層級風險有限。2026 年的前幾週，由於機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 市場的走勢，企業信貸和結構性融資資產類別均有所走強，信貸利差也隨之收窄。目前，資金成本下降和資本市場穩定為我們的業務提供了有利背景，這將使我們的交易量保持在高位。

Given our market leadership, Annaly remains well positioned to continue to benefit from the growth and liquidity of not only the non-QM market, but also the broader non-agency market, which is expected to experience the highest growth securitization issuance since 2007 this year.

鑑於我們的市場領導地位，Annaly 將繼續受益於非合格市場以及更廣泛的非機構市場的成長和流動性，預計今年非機構市場將經歷自 2007 年以來最高的證券化發行成長。

Now turning to MSR. Our portfolio ended the fourth quarter at $3.8 billion in market value including unsettled commitments, representing a nearly $280 million increase quarter-over-quarter and a 15% increase year-over-year, and MSR ended the year representing 19% of the firm's capital. And during the quarter, we committed to purchase $22 billion in principal balance or roughly $330 million in market value of MSR with a weighted average note rate of 3.46%.

現在轉向MSR。截至第四季末，我們的投資組合市值達到 38 億美元，其中包括未結算的承諾，環比增長近 2.8 億美元，同比增長 15%；MSR 年底占公司資本的 19%。本季度，我們承諾購買 220 億美元的本金餘額，或約 3.3 億美元的市場價值的 MSR，加權平均票據利率為 3.46%。

Now these purchases were across five bulk packages in our flow channels, of which $150 million of market value is expected to settle in Q1. And notably, we are the second largest buyer of conventional MSR in 2025, onboarding $59 billion in UPB throughout the year, and we ranked as the sixth largest nonbank agency servicer. Bulk supply was ample this past year, and we expect this pace of activity to continue in 2026 due to increasing origination volumes, coupled with compressed gain on sale margins necessitating MSR sales as demonstrated throughout 2025.

這些採購涉及我們流通管道中的五個大宗包裹，其中 1.5 億美元的市場價值預計將在第一季結算。值得注意的是，我們是 2025 年傳統抵押貸款服務權 (MSR) 的第二大買家，全年新增未償付餘額 (UPB) 達 590 億美元，並且我們位列第六大非銀行代理服務商。去年大宗供應充足，我們預計這種活動速度將在 2026 年繼續，因為新增供應量增加，加上銷售利潤率壓縮，需要進行 MSR 銷售，正如 2025 年所顯示的那樣。

Now regarding our flow business, we're focused on expanding our footprint and are now active across all GSE platforms, providing access to current coupon MSR, which we plan to purchase opportunistically. Our MSR valuation multiple increased marginally on the quarter driven by a steeper yield curve, modest spread tightening and lower volatility.

關於我們的流動業務，我們專注於擴大業務範圍，目前已活躍於所有 GSE 平台，提供當前優惠券 MSR 的訪問權限，我們計劃擇機購買這些優惠券。受殖利率曲線陡峭化、利差略微收窄和波動性降低的影響，我們的MSR估值倍數在本季略有上升。

Fundamental performance within the MSR portfolio continues to be strong and cash flows remain durable. The portfolio paid 4.6% CPR in Q4, unchanged quarter-over-quarter while serious delinquencies remain muted at 55 basis points. And with a weighted average note rate of 3.28% our portfolio is still 250 basis points out of the money. As we continue to enhance our subservicing and recapture relationships, we look forward to growing our MSR portfolio in the coming year taking advantage of the role we've created as a preferred partner to the originator and servicer community. Now to conclude with our outlook, as we look further into 2026, each of our investment strategies is well positioned to continue delivering strong results for our shareholders.

MSR投資組合的基本面表現依然強勁，現金流量維持穩定。第四季該投資組合支付了 4.6% 的 CPR，與上一季持平，而嚴重違約率仍保持在 55 個基點的低點。加權平均票據利率為 3.28%，我們的投資組合仍處於價外狀態 250 個基點。隨著我們不斷加強與二級服務和回收機構的關係，我們期待在來年擴大我們的抵押貸款服務權組合，利用我們作為發起機構和服務機構首選合作夥伴的地位。最後，展望2026年，我們的每項投資策略都已做好充分準備，將持續為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

The agency spread tightening following the GSE's recent MBS purchase announcement has been pronounced, but it is important to note that not only are technicals in the market vastly better than at any time since the Fed was actively buying MBS. Also MBS hedging costs should be meaningfully lower given the decline in volatility supporting low to mid-teen prospective returns. And we anticipate the non-Agency market to continue to grow as a share of total origination and Onslow Bay is uniquely positioned to maintain its healthy pace of loan acquisitions and securitization issuance. The non-QM market, in particular, has matured into a more liquid institutional asset class and our early positioning gives us significant competitive advantages in loan selection and execution. And our best-in-class MSR portfolio remains distinguished with an average note rate that is significantly out of the money and an exceptional credit profile which provides our portfolio with a stable cash flow vehicle, supporting our overall yield and returns.

在 GSE 最近宣布購買 MBS 之後，機構間利差收窄的趨勢十分明顯，但值得注意的是，目前市場的技術面不僅比聯準會積極購買 MBS 以來的任何時候都要好得多。此外，鑑於波動性下降，MBS 對沖成本應該會顯著降低，預期回報率將維持在 10% 到 15% 之間。我們預期非機構市場在總貸款發放量中所佔份額將繼續成長，而昂斯洛灣擁有獨特的優勢，能夠維持其健康的貸款收購和證券化發行速度。特別是非合格抵押貸款市場已經發展成為流動性更強的機構資產類別，我們早期的市場定位使我們在貸款選擇和執行方面擁有顯著的競爭優勢。我們一流的MSR投資組合依然保持著卓越的優勢，平均票據利率遠低於市場水平，且信用狀況優異，為我們的投資組合提供了穩定的現金流，從而支撐了我們的整體收益和回報。

And most importantly, we believe our diversified housing model will continue to perform for our shareholders in the year ahead. In an environment where spreads across various asset classes have tightened unevenly, the optionality to invest in the most accretive assets is an important lever to drive returns that monoline peer strategies are not afforded. And accordingly, while Agency will certainly continue to remain the anchor of our portfolio, our non-Agency strategies will likely see additional capital allocation, all else equal. We do, however, have the earnings power and the liquidity to be both patient and opportunistic and the scale to maintain our market leadership across housing finance and our diversification enables us to be resilient across different rate cycles and market environments. And now with that, I'll hand it over to Serena to discuss the financials.

最重要的是，我們相信我們多元化的住房模式將在未來一年繼續為股東帶來利益。在各種資產類別的利差收窄程度不均衡的環境下，投資於最具增值潛力的資產的選擇權，是推動收益的重要槓桿，而單一類型的同類策略則不具備這種能力。因此，儘管代理策略肯定會繼續成為我們投資組合的基石，但在其他條件不變的情況下，我們的非代理策略可能會獲得額外的資本配置。然而，我們擁有足夠的獲利能力和流動性，既能保持耐心又能抓住機會；我們擁有足夠的規模來維持我們在住房金融領域的市場領先地位；我們的多元化經營使我們能夠在不同的利率週期和市場環境中保持韌性。現在，我將把發言權交給小威，讓她來討論財務問題。

Thank you, David. Today, I will provide a brief overview of the financial highlights for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, as well as select full year measures. Consistent with prior quarters, while our earnings release discloses GAAP and non-GAAP earnings metrics, my comments will focus on our non-GAAP EAD and related key performance metrics, which exclude PAA. Starting with book value. As of December 31, 2025, our book value per share increased 5% from $19.25 in the prior quarter to $20.21.

謝謝你，大衛。今天，我將簡要概述截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日的季度財務亮點，以及部分全年指標。與前幾季一致，雖然我們的財報揭露了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 收益指標，但我的評論將重點放在我們的非 GAAP EAD 和相關關鍵績效指標，其中不包括 PAA。從帳面價值開始。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，我們的每股帳面價值從上一季的 19.25 美元增長了 5%，達到 20.21 美元。

After accounting for our $0.70 dividend, we achieved an economic return of 8.6% in Q4. This brings our full year 2025 economic return to 20.2%. Strong investment gains drove this quarter's performance. We benefited from spread tightening driven by lower volatility as favorable technical factors. Gains on our interest rate swaps also supported results as swap spreads widened.

在扣除每股 0.70 美元的股息後，我們在第四季度實現了 8.6% 的經濟回報率。這將使我們 2025 年全年的經濟回報率達到 20.2%。強勁的投資收益推動了本季的業績成長。我們受惠於波動性降低所導致的價差收窄，這是一個有利的技術因素。隨著互換利差擴大，利率互換的收益也支撐了業績。

Earnings available for distribution per share increased by $0.01 to $0.74. And again, as David mentioned earlier, exceeded our dividend for the quarter. This increase in EAD was driven by a 30 basis point improvement in our average repo rate to 4.2% and higher average investment balances resulting from growth in our Agency and Residential loan portfolios. For the full year, average yields rose 26 basis points year-over-year from 5.13% in 2024 to 5.39% in 2025. However, these benefits were partially offset by lower levels of swap income due to lower average receive rates.

每股可供分配收益增加0.01美元，達到0.74美元。正如大衛之前提到的，這一數字再次超過了我們本季的股息。EAD 的增加是由於我們的平均回購利率提高了 30 個基點，達到 4.2%，以及由於我們的機構貸款和住宅貸款組合的增長而導致的平均投資餘額增加。全年來看，平均殖利率年增 26 個基點，從 2024 年的 5.13% 升至 2025 年的 5.39%。然而，由於平均接收率較低，互換收入水準也較低，這些收益部分被抵銷了。

Net interest spread and net interest margin, both excluding PAA, remained strong and comparable to prior quarters at 1.49% and 1.69%, respectively. For the full year 2025, net interest spread and net interest margin, both excluding PAA, reached 1.4% and 1.7%, an improvement of 18 basis points and 13 basis points, respectively further demonstrating the returns from our disciplined investing and funding teams. Turning to financing. We added $6.7 billion of repo principal at attractive spreads while deploying the proceeds from accretive ATM issuances during the quarter. This led to a Q4 reported ending repo rate of 4.02%, down 34 basis points.

不包括 PAA 的淨利差和淨利差分別維持在 1.49% 和 1.69% 的強勁水平，與前幾季相比沒有明顯變化。2025 年全年，淨利差和淨息息率（均不包括 PAA）分別達到 1.4% 和 1.7%，分別提高了 18 個基點和 13 個基點，進一步證明了我們嚴謹的投資和融資團隊的回報。接下來討論融資問題。本季度，我們利用增值型 ATM 發行所得資金，以優惠的利差增加了 67 億美元的回購本金。這導致第四季末回購利率報告為 4.02%，下降 34 個基點。

Additionally, our weighted average repo days ended the quarter at 35 days, 14 days lower than the prior quarter. Our economic leverage ratio remained historically low at 5.6 times, down one tick from the third quarter's end. Meanwhile, total warehouse capacity across our residential credit and MSR businesses reached $6.9 billion, with $2.7 billion of that committed. We continue to maintain ample capacity in both businesses with utilization rates at 47% for residential credit and 50% for MSR. As for liquidity, we ended the fourth quarter with $7.8 billion in unencumbered assets, including $6.1 billion in cash and unencumbered agency MBS.

此外，本季末我們的加權平均回購天數為 35 天，比上一季減少了 14 天。我們的經濟槓桿率保持在歷史低位，為 5.6 倍，比第三季末下降了 1 個百分點。同時，我們住宅信貸和抵押貸款服務權業務的總倉儲容量達到 69 億美元，其中 27 億美元已承諾使用。我們繼續保持兩項業務的充足產能，住宅信貸利用率為 47%，抵押貸款服務權利用率為 50%。至於流動性方面，截至第四季末，我們擁有 78 億美元的未抵押資產，其中包括 61 億美元的現金和未抵押機構抵押貸款支持證券。

We also have about $1.5 billion in fair value of MSR pledged committed warehouse facilities but still undrawn, which can be quickly converted to cash, subject to market advance rates. As a result, our total assets available for financing are approximately $9.4 billion, up $500 million from the third quarter. This represents about 58% of our total capital base and provides significant liquidity and flexibility. Finally, regarding OpEx, our efficiency ratios again improved significantly during the quarter, down 10 basis points to 1.31% and brought the full year ratio to 1.42%, illustrating the efficiencies of our size and scale. Now that concludes our prepared remarks, and we'll now open the line for questions.

我們還擁有約 15 億美元的已質押倉儲融資額度，但尚未提取，這些額度可以按照市場預付款率快速轉換為現金。因此，我們可用於融資的總資產約為 94 億美元，比第三季增加了 5 億美元。這約占我們總資本基礎的 58%，並提供了顯著的流動性和靈活性。最後，關於營運支出，本季我們的效率比率再次顯著提高，下降 10 個基點至 1.31%，全年比率達到 1.42%，這反映了我們規模帶來的效率。我們的演講稿到此結束，現在我們將開放提問環節。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝接線生。

(Operator Instructions) And today's first question comes from Alyssa DeStefano with KBW. Please go ahead.

（操作說明）今天的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Alyssa DeStefano。請繼續。

Hi, this is Bose with KBW. The first question, could you give us an update on mark-to-market book values?

您好，這裡是 Bose 與 KBW 的合作。第一個問題，您能否為我們介紹一下以市值計價的帳面價值的最新情況？

Sure, Bose, good morning. So as of Tuesday, our book was up 4%, inclusive of the dividend accrual so 3% netting that out after yesterday, maybe a fraction of 1% higher than that.

當然，Bose，早安。截至週二，我們的帳面收益上漲了 4%，其中包括股息累積，因此扣除昨天的股息後，淨收益為 3%，可能比這高出不到 1%。

Okay. Great. And then can you just talk about the portfolio returns or the blended ROEs on the portfolio given the spread tightening since quarter end? And then can you just translate that into a comfort level with your dividend in 2026?

好的。偉大的。那麼，鑑於季度末以來利差收窄，您能否談談投資組合的回報或投資組合的綜合淨資產收益率（ROE）？那麼，您能否將此轉化為您對 2026 年股息的接受程度呢？

Sure. So overall, we could still achieve an upwards of mid-teens returns. When we look at the Agency market, obviously, we've gotten a considerable amount of tightening. But versus swaps, you still get there. And we're confident in the durability of the swaps market as a hedge given the fact that the Fed's obviously, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, much more considerate of balance sheet availability.

當然。所以總的來說，我們仍然可以獲得十幾個百分點以上的回報。當我們審視代理市場時，很明顯，我們已經經歷了相當大的收緊。但與互換相比，你仍然可以達到目的。鑑於聯準會顯然（正如我在準備好的發言稿中提到的）更加重視資產負債表的可用性，我們對互換市場作為對沖工具的持久性充滿信心。

And we haven't really tightened that much or rather -- sorry, widen that much since that announcement. So we feel like the swaps market is a perfectly good place to hedge and you can get that return. In the [resi] market, the whole loan channel to securitization is still giving us those returns. MSR is a little bit lighter. But when you consider the hedging benefits and diversification benefits will take that.

自從那次公告發布以來，我們並沒有真正收緊多少，或者更確切地說——抱歉，是放寬多少。因此，我們認為互換市場是一個非常好的對沖場所，而且您可以獲得相應的回報。在住宅市場，整個貸款管道到證券化仍然會為我們帶來這些回報。MSR 的重量稍輕一些。但考慮到對沖和分散投資的好處，你就會明白這一點。

And then when you look at our overall balance sheet, where we own assets is very supportive of the dividend yield. So we feel good about it. We outearned in Q4. We expect outearned certainly in Q1, and we feel like the dividend is safe here.

然後，當你查看我們的整體資產負債表時，我們擁有的資產對股息收益率提供了非常強大的支持。所以我們對此感到很滿意。第四季我們獲利超出預期。我們預計第一季獲利肯定會超過預期，而且我們認為目前的股息支付是安全的。

Okay great, thank you.

好的，非常感謝。

And our next question today comes from Jason Stewart at Compass Point.

今天的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Jason Stewart。

Obviously, on the MSR portfolio, the current portfolio is pretty well insulated from modestly lower interest rates. But could you expand on your comment about being opportunistic for coupon MSR and how you're expecting that market to trade as prepays increase?

顯然，對於 MSR 投資組合而言，目前的投資組合能夠很好地抵禦利率小幅下降的影響。但是，您能否詳細解釋一下您關於利用優惠券進行MSR交易的觀點，以及您預計隨著預付款的增加，該市場將如何變化？

Sure. I'll hand it off to Ken for that.

當然。我會把這件事交給肯處理。

Yes. I mean we've now set up the infrastructure to be fully active in that space. And the primary way we've done that is through the Fannie and Freddie MSR exchange platforms. And we're now active with close to 100 counterparties today, and we provide pricing every day. What's really interesting about new production pricing is it really doesn't move that much with interest rates because it's always set at the current mortgage rate.

是的。我的意思是，我們現在已經建立了在該領域全面開展活動的必要基礎設施。我們實現這一目標的主要方式是透過房利美和房地美的MSR交易平台。目前我們與近 100 家交易對手保持活躍關係，並且每天都提供定價服務。新房定價真正有趣的地方在於，它並不會隨著利率的波動而大幅變化，因為它始終以當前的抵押貸款利率為基準。

So really, what it is, is about the value change after you buy it, I think. And given the improved ability to do recapture for the industry, that's been much more insulated than it's been in past regimes. So we're there, and we don't see it as valuable to us at this time based on where we can buy the lower note rate stuff. So to the extent relative value changes and that becomes more attractive, you will see us more active in that area.

所以說，實際上，我認為，關鍵在於你購買之後它的價值變化。鑑於該行業回收能力的提高，這種情況比以往任何時期都更加穩定。所以我們現在就在那裡，但考慮到我們可以在哪裡買到利率更低的票據，我們認為它目前對我們來說沒有價值。因此，如果相對價值發生變化，變得更具吸引力，你會看到我們在該領域更加活躍。

Yes. And I'll just add, Jason, to the extent we're a financial participant, the low note rate MSR has worked well and let the operating platforms, the originators focus on production coupon and their management of the borrower, but we do expect origination obviously, to pick up a lot this year with a 6% mortgage rate. And so as a consequence, you'll see a lot of production coupon MSR hitting the market. And we've gotten comfortable, very comfortable with our recapture partners at our servicers to where we can manage that quite well. So we'll see how the market develops, but we'd like to get more into the production MSR space.

是的。傑森，我還要補充一點，就我們作為金融參與者而言，低利率的抵押貸款服務權（MSR）運作良好，讓營運平台和發起機構能夠專注於生產票息和對借款人的管理，但我們確實預計，在抵押貸款利率為 6% 的情況下，今年的貸款發放量顯然會大幅增加。因此，你會看到很多生產優惠券MSR流入市場。我們已經與服務商的回收合作夥伴建立了非常良好的合作關係，因此我們可以很好地管理回收工作。所以我們會看看市場如何發展，但我們希望能更多地進入生產型MSR領域。

Okay. That's helpful. And just one more point on that. How much would you need to see valuations change for it to hit return hurdles in terms of current coupon production.

好的。那很有幫助。關於這一點，我還有一點要補充。估值需要發生多大的變化，才能使其在當前票息產量上達到回報目標？

Yes. Well, what's going on is when originators sell MSRs, they want to sell the MSR that's least valuable to them. And that is the lower note rate MSR because there's a lower chance that customer is going to become active. So in today's world, when they originate and Dave alluded to this in the prepared comments, when they originate a loan, the profitability on that origination does not allow MSR retention to retain all the MSR. In fact, they have to sell a majority of the MSR to be liquidity neutral.

是的。事情的真相是，當發行方出售MSR時，他們總是想出售對他們來說價值最低的MSR。而較低的票據利率 MSR 是因為客戶活躍的可能性較低。所以在當今世界，當他們發放貸款時（戴夫在準備好的評論中也提到了這一點），發放貸款的盈利能力不足以讓抵押貸款服務權（MSR）保留全部MSR。事實上，他們必須出售大部分抵押貸款服務權才能實現流動性中立。

So what we're seeing is originators prefer to sell the lower note rate MSR so that's more valuable to us because that's what they're selling. We expect that flow to dry up and then the relative value shifts to the current coupon. But also, as Dave alluded to, we're well set up based on network of people to buy from and then a network of people to both subservice and perform recapture for us.

所以我們看到的是，貸款發起機構更傾向於出售利率較低的MSR，這對我們來說更有價值，因為這就是他們出售的。我們預計這種資金流動將會停止，然後相對價值將轉向當前的票息。但正如戴夫所暗示的那樣，我們已經建立了一個完善的採購網絡，以及一個可以為我們提供分包服務和客戶挽回服務的網絡。

And our next question today comes from Eric Hagen at BTIG.

今天的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

Lots of speculation out there right now for things the administration can do to lower mortgage rates further, including a potential cut to guarantee fees. I mean can you weigh in on this? And how you think a big G-fee cut could impact the prepayment environment?

目前外界對政府可能採取哪些措施進一步降低抵押貸款利率有很多猜測，包括可能削減擔保費。我的意思是，您能談談您的看法嗎？您認為大幅降低政府費用會對預付費環境產生什麼樣的影響？

Sure. So obviously, a G-fee cut is something that's been talked about. Our view -- and we've been communicated about this to policymakers is that a G-fee cut on purchased loans is perfectly appropriate. We're concerned that if you do broad G-fee cut and impact existing loans, you're going to damage the MBS market and widen spreads. And I think that there's been an awareness of that.

當然。顯然，降低 G 費用是人們一直在討論的事情。我們的觀點——並且我們已經向政策制定者傳達了這一觀點——是降低購買貸款的 G 費用是完全合適的。我們擔心，如果大幅削減擔保費並影響現有貸款，將會損害抵押貸款支持證券市場並擴大利差。我認為人們已經意識到了這一點。

And furthermore, if you can find it to purchase loans, you don't negatively impact the ROEs of the GSEs, and that's certainly a consideration. So perhaps they do something like give it a year holiday on purchased loans, we think that would make sense to help first-time homeowners and new buyers get into the housing market.

此外，如果你能找到購買貸款的資金，就不會對政府支持企業 (GSE) 的股本回報率產生負面影響，這當然是一個需要考慮的因素。所以他們或許會採取一些措施，例如給購屋貸款一年的寬限期，我們認為這對於幫助首次購屋者和新買家進入房地產市場來說是有意義的。

Okay. That's great. You mentioned the cost of hedging should be lower as a result of the GSEs being back in the market, spread volatility being lower. I mean what metric would you use to maybe like compare the cost of hedging over time? And how would you maybe compare the attractiveness of raising capital when spreads are widened kind of more attractive versus an environment of tighter spreads and lower spread volatility?

好的。那太棒了。您提到，由於政府支持企業重返市場，價差波動性降低，避險成本應該會降低。我的意思是，你會用什麼指標來比較不同時期避險的成本呢？那麼，在利差擴大的情況下籌集資金的吸引力，與利差收窄、利差波動性較低的環境相比，您認為前者更具吸引力嗎？

Yes. So the first question in terms of measuring spread volatility, like here is our view as it relates to the GSEs and their involvement. We don't have a lot of clarity. We know there's a $200 billion mandate, but we don't know what role the GSEs are going to play. I think it would be highly productive if they evolved into a spread stabilizing force for the MBS market, and that was somewhat of the role they played pre-financial crisis.

是的。因此，衡量價差波動性的第一個問題是，我們對此的看法與政府支持企業及其參與有關。我們目前還不清楚具體情況。我們知道政府有 2000 億美元的撥款目標，但我們不知道政府支持企業將扮演什麼角色。我認為，如果它們發展成為抵押貸款支持證券市場的利差穩定力量，那將是非常有益的，而這正是它們在金融危機前所扮演的角色。

And it gave investors' confidence that mortgage spreads would remain relatively stable. And as a consequence, it incentivize participation in the market. And then overall, given higher participation, you got a tighter spread as a consequence of others doing the work for the GSEs because you knew that they would be there when they got too wide and provide support for the market. And they also were economically focused and sold when mortgages were tight. That would be a good outcome.

這讓投資者相信抵押貸款利差將保持相對穩定。因此，它激勵了人們參與市場。整體而言，由於參與度更高，市場價差收窄，因為其他人會為政府支持企業 (GSE) 做事，因為你知道當價差過大時，他們會出手相助，為市場提供支持。而且它們也注重經濟效益，在抵押貸款緊縮時期出售。那將是一個好結果。

They clearly don't have the capacity that they did pre-financial crisis but they got a lot of dry powder. So we'd like to see that evolution, but we'll have to wait to see. In terms of measuring spreads, in volatility, spread vol has been very stable for the last 6 months, and it's been quite comforting. We haven't had to spend a lot of money at all hedging and you see that in our economic return. So we feel quite good about that.

他們顯然沒有金融危機前的實力，但他們有很多未動用的資金。所以我們希望看到這種演變，但我們還得拭目以待。就衡量價差而言，在波動率方面，過去 6 個月價差波動率一直非常穩定，這令人相當放心。我們幾乎沒有花很多錢進行對沖，這一點從我們的經濟回報中就能看出來。所以我們對這一點感到非常滿意。

And then Srini, you want to dive into your second question again -- second part of your question again, Eric?

那麼，Srini，你想再深入探討你的第二個問題嗎？ ——Eric，你是想再深入探討你問題的第二部分嗎？

Sure. Yes, we're just looking at how you might compare the attractiveness of raising capital in the different spread environments.

當然。是的，我們只是在研究如何在不同的利差環境下比較籌集資金的吸引力。

So look, I'll jump in there, and then Srini can add. When spreads were extraordinarily wide. It was obviously a catalyst to raise capital because there was a tremendous amount of upside. Compare that to today, where spreads are meaningfully tighter, obviously, from a relative value standpoint, it doesn't look as attractive. But when you consider the fact that the stability of spreads is higher, it gives you some confidence.

所以，我先插話，然後 Srini 可以補充。當價差異常大的時候。顯然，這成為了籌集資金的催化劑，因為存在著巨大的上漲空間。相較之下，如今的價差明顯收窄，從相對價值的角度來看，顯然吸引力就沒那麼大了。但考慮到價差穩定性較高，這會為你帶來一些信心。

But candidly, if I had to choose between one environment or over the other, I'd rather have wider spreads, with a little bit more uncertainty in terms of raising capital. So from that standpoint, I would expect that the pace of capital raising may not be as high as in that environment. But nonetheless, the amount of support for the Agency market, given the fact that you have very strong technicals from obviously the GSEs, but also money managers, REITs raising capital, et cetera. That's quite comforting. And to the earlier part of the question about volatility, where the cycle lows, and that's supported by what we're seeing day-to-day in markets.

但坦白說，如果非要在兩種環境之間做出選擇，我寧願選擇利差更大、融資方面存在更多不確定性的環境。因此從這個角度來看，我預期在那種環境下，融資速度可能不會那麼快。但儘管如此，考慮到政府支持企業（GSE）的技術實力非常強勁，以及資金管理人、房地產投資信託基金（REITs）籌集資金等因素，代理市場仍然得到了大量的支持。這真讓人感到欣慰。至於前面提到的波動性問題，也就是週期低點在哪裡，這一點可以從我們每天在市場上看到的情況來印證。

Another point to note is that the Fed is shoring up balance sheet, as I talked about in my prepared remarks and in Bose's question, the fact that the Fed went from QT to adding reserves in the system is a very good sign for balance sheet intensive products, whether it's treasuries or Agency MBS, the ability to finance is key. And I think it's been a little bit underappreciated. So the Agency market is a safe place right now. It's just that spreads are obviously at the tight end of the range. They're close to QE type levels.

另一點需要注意的是，正如我在準備好的發言稿和 Bose 的問題中提到的那樣，聯準會正在加強資產負債表。聯準會從量化緊縮轉向增加系統儲備，這對資產負債表密集型產品來說是一個非常好的跡象，無論是國債還是機構抵押貸款支持證券，融資能力都是關鍵。我覺得它有點被低估了。所以目前代理市場是一個安全的市場。只是很明顯，目前的價差處於較窄的範圍內。它們接近量化寬鬆政策的程度。

The safety of those returns is there, but the abundance of yield is not quite there.

這些收益的安全性是有的，但收益的豐厚程度還不夠。

And going forward, there could be pockets of opportunity if we get more clarity on what policy changes come about, post the GSE announcement to purchase MBS, higher coupons really have not tightened that much because that has increased policy uncertainty. So as we get some clarity there, there could be pockets of opportunity.

展望未來，如果我們能更清楚地了解在政府支持企業宣布購買抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 之後將會出現哪些政策變化，那麼可能會出現一些機會。由於政府支持企業宣布購買 MBS，更高的票息實際上並沒有收緊多少，因為這增加了政策的不確定性。隨著情況逐漸明朗，可能會出現一些機會。

And our next question today comes from Doug Harter at UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的道格·哈特。

David, you were just talking about the lower risk environment that we're in today. I guess as you look out, like how do you handicap the risks that, that could change, what might be the factors that could cause kind of an end to this low-risk environment with more volatility?

大衛，你剛才還在談論我們目前所處的風險較低的環境。我想，當你放眼未來時，你會如何評估可能改變的風險？哪些因素可能導致這種低風險環境結束，取而代之的是更大的波動性？

Sure. From a macro standpoint, then I'll drill down a little bit on the mortgage market. But the 2 biggest risks that we see are the global fiscal picture and the amount of debt out there, including that in the United States and a little bit of complacency around it, and you could end up with the vol environment because of the amount of debt in the world. And I think it's probably under-recognized the risk of that. And another macro risk is just the euphoria in asset markets and asset pricing.

當然。接下來，我將從宏觀角度深入探討一下抵押貸款市場。但我們看到的兩大風險是全球財政狀況和債務規模，包括美國的債務規模以及對此存在的一些自滿情緒，而全球債務規模之大最終可能會導致市場波動。我認為人們可能低估了這種風險。另一個宏觀風險是資產市場和資產定價的過度樂觀情緒。

It's been a pretty remarkable run across markets, and there's real signs out there that people should be -- investors should be a little bit concerned. Just look at the price of gold as a safety store of value. It's doubled since the beginning of last year and up 27%, 28% this year. So I think there's some nervousness out there, and it's a little bit hard to invest and we could get a correction broadly in assets. Now as it relates to the Agency market, specifically in our markets, valuation as well is a risk.

近來市場走勢相當驚人，種種跡象表明，投資者應該對此感到擔憂。看看黃金作為安全價值儲存手段的價格就知道了。自去年初以來已經翻了一番，今年迄今上漲了 27% 和 28%。所以我認為目前市場有些緊張，投資有點困難，資產價格可能會出現大規模回檔。現在，就代理市場而言，尤其是在我們的市場中，估值也是一個風險。

We are at the very tight end of the range on Agency MBS. It's justified given the facts I mentioned earlier, but nonetheless, they're relatively tight. Another risk as Eric discussed is housing policy uncertainty and what role the GSEs will play and what the administration will do to potentially increase affordability and how that could impact the convexity profile of the Agency market. So those are two things we're watching quite closely in terms of risks in the Agency market specifically.

我們目前處於 Agency MBS 價格範圍的非常狹窄的範圍內。鑑於我前面提到的事實，這是合理的，但儘管如此，它們之間的距離仍然相對較近。艾瑞克討論的另一個風險是住房政策的不確定性，以及政府支持企業將發揮什麼作用，政府將採取什麼措施來提高住房可負擔性，以及這可能會如何影響機構市場的凸性特徵。所以，就代理市場風險而言，這是我們正在密切關注的兩件事。

And our next question today comes from Rick Shane at JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的里克·沙恩。

Look, you guys are seeing attractive opportunities buying MSRs, low coupon MSRs. I assume you're basically seeing that as an attractive IO. Given discounts in MBS for lower coupons, does it make sense? Is it attractive to be buying lower coupon MBS at this point as well. I'm just curious, particularly as sort of on the margin, you're starting to get more questions about prepayment.

你們看，現在有很多機會可以買到MSR，尤其是低優惠券的MSR。我猜你基本上是把它看作一個有吸引力的IO。考慮到MBS優惠券折扣力度更大，這樣做划算嗎？此時購買低利率抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）是否也很有吸引力？我只是好奇，尤其是現在，你開始收到更多關於預付款的問題。

Yes, you're just saying as a hedge to our MSR and the runoff.

是的，你這麼說只是為了防範我們的MSR和徑流問題。

Exactly. Give yourself an opportunity to pick up some discount accretion if speeds pick up and also potentially is an attractive yield.

確切地。如果交易速度加快，這將給你一個獲得折扣增值的機會，而且也可能帶來可觀的收益。

Yes. And look, the first point I'd note is that the valuation on low coupon MBS is quite tight. So there's better ways, I think, to manage that type of risk, whether it be through duration or other factors. There's a little bit of policy risk in low note rate MSR, but we feel it's very safe. And I think when it comes to housing policy changes, you could see legislation that reduces capital gains tax so you could get some turnover in low coupon MSR but those are at the margin.

是的。首先，我要指出的是，低利率抵押貸款支持證券的估值相當緊張。所以我認為，有更好的方法來管理這類風險，無論是透過延長期限還是透過其他因素。低利率抵押貸款償付能力 (MSR) 存在一些政策風險，但我們認為它非常安全。我認為，在房屋政策變化方面，可能會有立法降低資本利得稅，從而促進低利率抵押貸款服務權的周轉，但這些只是邊緣現象。

Otherwise, I think the borrower in a three-odd percent note rate loan really ascribes the value to that loan, and there's some real reluctance to give it up. So we do feel like it's a safe durable asset and we do hedge some of that uncertainty through duration but to couple it with low coupon MBS. And we do have some, and that is obviously a consideration, Rick, but the valuations just don't warrant it.

否則，我認為利率在 3% 左右的貸款中，借款人會非常重視這筆貸款，並且非常不願意放棄它。因此，我們認為它是一種安全耐用的資產，我們透過久期對沖了一些不確定性，但同時又結合了低利率抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS)。我們確實有一些，這顯然是一個需要考慮的因素，里克，但估值還不足以支撐我們這樣做。

Got it. And is there enough liquidity in the lower coupons that if you felt like there -- the bid-ask was attractive that you could deploy capital there? Or is it -- and that's a nuance just as equity guys, I don't think -- at least I fully appreciate.

知道了。低利率債券的流動性是否足夠，如果您覺得買賣價差有吸引力，您可以將資金投入其中？或者說——這只是股權人士的一個細微差別，我認為——至少我完全理解。

Yes. Yes. And there is liquidity in low coupons. It's not as good as production and slightly higher. But if you wanted to compile a bigger position in local bonds, it wouldn't be hard.

是的。是的。低息票面利率也帶來了流動性。它不如生產品質好，但價格略高。但如果你想增持本地債券，那並不難。

I mentioned we added DUS to the portfolio, Agency CMBS. In our view, relative to lower coupon MBS that was meaningfully cheaper. And so to get a good convexity profile and longer duration assets that was sufficient for us last quarter.

我提到我們已將 DUS 添加到投資組合中，即 Agency CMBS。我們認為，相對於低利率抵押貸款擔保證券（MBS），它的價格明顯更低。因此，上個季度，我們獲得了良好的凸性特徵和較長期限的資產，這已經足夠了。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense because that's got a super low prepayment characteristics because those are...

知道了。好的。這很合理，因為它的預付款比例非常低，因為這些特點是…

Exactly. Locked out.

確切地。已被鎖定。

And our next question today comes from Harsh Hemnani with Green Street.

今天的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 Harsh Hemnani。

Thank you. So I think on the prepared remarks, you characterized the current environment as spreads have tightened across all housing finance assets, but unevenly. And it seems like credit is starting to look a little bit more attractive on a relative value basis and we saw that section of the portfolio grow a little faster than the rest of the businesses this quarter. I guess, as you look out over the next year or so, your long-term target for the equity allocation is like 60% Agency MBS and 20% across the other two each. Can you help us put some bands around that?

謝謝。所以我認為，根據你準備好的發言稿，你將當前環境描述為所有住房金融資產的利差都已收窄，但收窄程度並不均衡。而且，從相對價值來看，信貸似乎開始變得更有吸引力了，我們看到本季該部分投資組合的成長速度比其他業務略快。我猜，展望未來一年左右，你的長期股權配置目標大概是 60% 的機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS)，另外兩種證券各佔 20%。你能幫我們給它加上一些帶子嗎？

How much could we see credit exposure or MSR even increase from your -- over that 20% number?

信用風險敞口或MSR（抵押貸款服務權）可能會比您提到的20%以上增加多少？

Sure. And I did allude to this, Harsh, so thank you for the question. So in 2025, we grew the Agency portfolio of 30% each resi and MSR by 15% through the capital raises that we undertook. And that was the right weighting to go with, given how well Agency has done. So we're perfectly happy with it.

當然。我確實提到過這一點，Harsh，所以謝謝你的提問。因此，到 2025 年，我們透過籌集資金，使代理商的住宅和 MSR 投資組合分別成長了 30% 和 15%。考慮到 Agency 的優異表現，這樣的權重分配是適當的。所以我們對此非常滿意。

But now we're at a little bit of a different balance when it comes to valuations, and we do from a capital allocation perspective, favor resi credit, even though it has tightened and MSR for that matter. And we like those percentages if we did add capital to switch. We'd like to grow resi and MSR 30% and Agency, less than that. So the objective today from a capital allocation standpoint is to increase MSR and resi. It's episodic in terms of the opportunities, notwithstanding the consistency of the pipeline for our whole loan correspondent channel, but we would like to grow those businesses.

但現在我們在估值方面處於略有不同的平衡狀態，從資本配置的角度來看，我們確實更傾向於住宅信貸，儘管它已經收緊，MSR 也是如此。如果我們投入資金進行轉換，我們會喜歡這些百分比。我們希望住宅和MSR成長30%，而代理業務成長幅度小一些。因此，從資本配置的角度來看，今天的目標是增加MSR和住宅。儘管我們整個貸款代理商管道的業務管道保持穩定，但就機會而言，它具有階段性，我們希望發展這些業務。

And we've said in the past that the longer term weighting we would like to achieve is 50% Agency, not below that and 30% resi, 20% MSR. We don't have to get there right away, but that is an objective. We have to be very considerate with respect to the credit environment. But nonetheless, when you look at the health of the loans we're acquiring, and our portfolio, we're very comfortable with the credit we're doing. And so we're hopeful we can grow it.

我們過去曾說過，我們希望達到的長期權重是 50% 的代理房產，不能低於這個比例，30% 的住宅房產，20% 的 MSR 房產。我們不必馬上達到目標，但這的確是一個目標。我們必須非常重視信貸環境。但儘管如此，當你審視我們正在收購的貸款的健康狀況以及我們的投資組合時，我們對我們正在進行的信貸業務感到非常滿意。因此，我們希望它能夠發展壯大。

And I don't expect us to get to those objectives over the near term in terms of down to 50% Agency, but we'd like to at the margin increase MSR and resi here.

我不認為我們能在短期內實現將代理比例降至 50% 的目標，但我們希望逐步提高這裡的 MSR 和住宅比例。

And our next question comes from Trevor Cranston of Citizens JMP.

下一個問題來自 Citizens JMP 的 Trevor Cranston。

You talked some about the impact of the GSE portfolio buying on the market. I was curious if you could share your views on the likelihood or feasibility of the portfolio caps potentially being increased at some point as they get closer to current cap size? And then also, I was just curious if you guys have seen or if you expect to see any impact from their portfolio buying on the swap or funding markets?

您談到了政府支持企業（GSE）投資組合購買對市場的影響。我想請教一下，隨著投資組合規模接近目前的規模，是否有可能或可行性提高投資組合上限？另外，我還想問問你們是否已經看到或預期會看到他們的投資組合購買對互換或融資市場產生任何影響？

Yes. So as it relates to the caps, it's hard to say. Obviously, everybody probably saw that post from the FHFA Director last Friday, I believe it was talking about they don't intend to increase the caps, but we just don't know. But when you look today, they came into the year with, I think it's $178 billion in capacity between the two of them. So we're a long ways away from hitting those caps, and we'll see how it evolves.

是的。所以，關於帽子的問題，很難說。顯然，大家可能都看到了上週五 FHFA 主任發布的帖子，我相信帖子內容是說他們不打算提高貸款上限，但我們目前還不得而知。但看看今天，他們年初的總產能，我認為是1780億美元。所以，我們離達到這些上限還很遠，讓我們拭目以待吧。

But we don't have a good answer as to whether or not those caps will actually be increased. Obviously, they can do it in conjunction with treasury, and it doesn't require Congress. So we'll have to wait and see how the year evolves on that front. And sorry, the second part of your question, Trevor. Hedging, yes.

但我們目前還無法確定這些上限是否真的會提高。顯然，他們可以與財政部合作完成這項工作，而不需要國會批准。所以，我們只能拭目以待，看看今年這方面會如何發展。抱歉，特雷弗，你問題的第二部分。對沖，沒錯。

Yes. Whether you're seeing any impact from the GSE buying on swap markets?

是的。您是否觀察到政府支持企業 (GSE) 的購買行為對互換市場產生了任何影響？

Not as much. You could argue that swap spreads should be wider given the adjustments the Fed has made with respect to their asset purchases, and we didn't get, as I mentioned earlier, a meaningful amount of widening based on the greater availability of balance sheet. And it could indicate some involvement from the GSEs. We don't have information on that. I do know from our experience pre-financial crisis, and I was on the sell side interacting quite extensively with the GSEs.

沒那麼多。有人可能會認為，鑑於聯準會對其資產購買計畫所做的調整，互換利差應該擴大，但正如我之前提到的，由於資產負債表的可用性提高，我們並沒有看到利差出現實質的擴大。這可能表示政府支持企業（GSE）參與其中。我們沒有這方面的資訊。我從金融危機前的經驗中了解到這一點，當時我作為賣方與政府支持企業（GSE）進行了相當廣泛的互動。

If past is prologue in terms of how they behave, they would hedge those purchases and use swaps because that will enhance the yield relative to shorting treasuries, for example, and they can get a decent ROE out of it. So we would expect that to be the case whether they're actively engaged in the swaps market today. I don't have a good answer for their involvement. And as it relates to funding markets, the GSEs are active participants in the funding markets with their liquidity and their capital during parts of the month and their absence might be a factor. However, what I would say is that they're buying MBS, which is a balance sheet-intensive product, and is funded in many circumstances.

如果過去可以作為他們行為的先例，那麼他們會對這些購買行為進行對沖，並使用互換交易，因為這樣可以提高相對於做空國債等行為的收益，並且他們可以從中獲得可觀的淨資產收益率。因此，無論他們目前是否積極參與互換市場，我們都會預期情況會是這樣。對於他們的參與，我無法給予合理的解釋。至於融資市場，政府支持企業 (GSE) 在每月的部分時間裡積極參與融資市場，它們擁有流動性和資本，它們的缺席可能是一個因素。不過，我想說的是，他們正在購買抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS)，這是一種資產負債表密集型產品，而且在許多情況下都需要資金支持。

So they're taking assets out of the market that might otherwise be funded. And so even though they're not providing as much liquidity in the repo market that should offset -- the asset purchases should offset the lack of funding. And really what matters, I think, in terms of funding markets is reserves in the system. And that's the key factor we look at, and they're now back to slightly over $1 trillion -- or $3 trillion, and we feel like funding markets are still going to be fine without their participation. And Srini, you got another point.

所以他們正在將原本可能獲得融資的資產從市場中撤出。因此，即使它們在回購市場提供的流動性不如以前，但這應該可以抵消——資產購買應該可以抵消資金不足的情況。我認為，就融資市場而言，真正重要的是系統中的儲備。這就是我們關注的關鍵因素，現在它們的規模又回到了略高於 1 兆美元——或者 3 兆美元，我們認為即使沒有它們的參與，融資市場仍然會運作良好。斯里尼，你又說對了一點。

The 1 thing I would add is just the size of the GSE book. I mean if they bought the entire $200 billion, it's about $100 million DV01 so if you assume they have done 5% or 10%, you're talking about $5 million, $10 million DV01, it's just not large enough for you to see any impact on swaps spreads right away. It will take time.

我唯一要補充的是GSE這本書的篇幅。我的意思是，如果他們買了全部 2000 億美元，那大約是 1 億美元的 DV01，所以如果你假設他們做了 5% 或 10%，那也只是 500 萬到 1000 萬美元的 DV01，這規模太小，不足以讓你立即看到對掉期利差的任何影響。這需要時間。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to David Finkelstein for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給大衛‧芬克爾斯坦，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Rocco, and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. Have a good rest of the winter, and we'll talk to you real soon.

謝謝羅科，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。祝你有個愉快的冬天，我們很快就會再聯絡。

Thank you, sir. That concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

謝謝您，先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位蒞臨今天的報告會。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。