National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for joining the National Fuel Gas Company Q4 Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Kate, and I will be the moderator for today's call (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Brandon Haspett, Director of Investor Relations. You may proceed.

早安，感謝您參加全國燃氣公司 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議。我叫凱特，我將擔任今天電話會議（操作員說明）的主持人。現在我想將電話轉給主持人投資者關係總監布蘭登·哈斯佩特 (Brandon Haspett)。您可以繼續。

Thank you, Kate, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release. With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are Dave Bauer, President and Chief Executive Officer; Tim Silverstein, Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer; and Justin Loweth, President of Seneca Resources and National Fuel Midstream. At the end of the prepared remarks, we will open a discussion to questions.

謝謝你，凱特，早安。我們感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論昨晚的收益發布。國家燃氣公司總裁兼執行長 Dave Bauer 與我們通話。 Tim Silverstein，財務主管兼財務長；以及 Seneca Resources 和 National Fuel Midstream 總裁 Justin Loweth。在準備好的發言結束時，我們將開始討論問題。

The fourth quarter fiscal 2023 earnings release and November investor presentation have been posted on our Investor Relations website. We may refer to these materials during today's call.

2023 財年第四季收益發布和 11 月投資者介紹已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。我們可能會在今天的電話會議中參考這些資料。

We would like to remind you that today's teleconference will contain forward-looking statements. National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and projections are made in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis. Actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only as the date on which they are made, and you may refer to last evening's earnings release for a listing of certain specific risk factors.

我們想提醒您，今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。 National Fuel 的期望、信念和預測均出於善意，並被認為具有合理的基礎。實際結果可能存在重大差異。這些聲明僅代表其發布日期，您可以參考昨晚的收益報告，以了解某些特定風險因素的清單。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave Bauer.

有了這個，我會把它交給戴夫鮑爾。

Thank you, Brandon, and good morning, everyone. Fiscal '23 was a good year for National Fuel, both financially and operationally and one that positions the company for growth in the years ahead. Seneca's production was up 9% over last year, averaging over 1 Bcf per day net. Cash operating costs continued to trend downward as we build scale at Seneca.

謝謝你，布蘭登，大家早安。 23 財年對 National Fuel 來說是豐收的一年，無論是在財務上還是在營運上，這都為該公司在未來幾年的成長奠定了基礎。 Seneca 的產量比去年增加了 9%，平均每天淨產量超過 1 Bcf。隨著我們在塞內卡擴大規模，現金營運成本持續呈下降趨勢。

Commodity prices were a headwind during the year, but our consistent approach to hedging mitigated a lot of the pricing impacts and protected a substantial portion of our earnings and cash flows. Earnings at our regulated businesses were down slightly due to cost inflation and the associated regulatory lag, but recent rate proceedings in all three jurisdictions should reverse that trend.

大宗商品價格在這一年中是一個逆風，但我們一貫的對沖方法減輕了很多定價影響，並保護了我們很大一部分收益和現金流。由於成本通膨和相關監管滯後，我們受監管企業的獲利略有下降，但所有三個司法管轄區最近的利率程序應該會扭轉這一趨勢。

Most importantly, we generated $275 million of free cash flow during the year, roughly in line with nearly $300 million of combined free cash flow and proceeds from asset sales in fiscal '22.

最重要的是，我們在這一年中產生了 2.75 億美元的自由現金流，大致與 22 財年近 3 億美元的自由現金流和資產出售收益相結合。

In addition to continuing our long history of returning significant and increasing amounts of capital to shareholders through our dividend, the free cash flow we've generated over the past 2 years has funded $150 million of bolt-on acquisitions in our Eastern development area, while at the same time, contributing to a reduction in our absolute levels of debt.

除了延續我們透過股息向股東返還大量且不斷增加的資本的悠久歷史之外，我們在過去兩年中產生的自由現金流還為我們東部開發區的 1.5 億美元的補強收購提供了資金，同時同時，有助於降低我們的絕對債務水準。

Given our deep and growing inventory of high-returning locations in Tioga County, this past summer, we started a multiyear transition of Seneca's development program to focus more heavily on the EDA. While it's early, the transition is progressing smoothly. We just brought online a 6-well Marcellus pad in Tioga County and expect to bring online in the first quarter a 13-well Marcellus pad in Lycoming County.

鑑於我們在泰奧加縣高回報地點的庫存不斷增加，去年夏天，我們開始對 Seneca 的開發計劃進行多年過渡，以更加關注 EDA。雖然還為時過早，但過渡進展順利。我們剛剛在泰奧加縣上線了一個 6 孔 Marcellus 墊，預計第一季在萊康明縣上線了一個 13 孔 Marcellus 墊。

Production rates, drilling and completion costs and the timing of the wells being brought online have all been in line with or better than our expectations. Overall, we expect substantially higher productivity and IRRs in the EDA when compared to our WDA acreage. And with over 10 years of high-quality inventory in this area, we expect to see sustained improvement and long-term capital efficiency and free cash flow generation at Seneca and NFG Midstream.

生產率、鑽井和完井成本以及油井上線時間均符合或優於我們的預期。總體而言，與我們的 WDA 面積相比，我們預計 EDA 的生產力和內部收益率將大幅提高。憑藉該領域 10 多年的高品質庫存，我們預計 Seneca 和 NFG Midstream 將持續改善、長期資本效率和自由現金流產生。

With this increased focus on the EDA, Seneca and our FERC pipeline businesses have been focused on developing additional outlets for Seneca's growing production in Tioga County. To that end, last month, Seneca executed a proceeding agreement for 190,000 dekatherms per day of firm transportation capacity on Supply's Tioga Pathway Project.

隨著對 EDA 的日益關注，Seneca 和我們的 FERC 管道業務一直致力於為 Seneca 在泰奧加縣不斷增長的產量開發更多出口。為此，上個月，Seneca 簽署了一項正在進行的協議，為 Supply 的 Tioga Pathway 計畫提供每天 19 萬十卡熱的固定運輸能力。

With an expected in-service date of late calendar 2026, this project will provide Seneca with access to markets connected to both TGP and Transco via its existing Leidy South capacity. From a facility standpoint, the project is a combination of new construction and the modernization of existing facilities with a total estimated cost of $90 million. We're currently working to develop the FERC application for the project and anticipate filing it by next fall.

該項目預計於 2026 年末投入使用，將為 Seneca 提供透過其現有 Leidy South 產能進入與 TGP 和 Transco 連接的市場的機會。從設施的角度來看，該項目是新建和現有設施現代化的結合，預計總成本為 9000 萬美元。我們目前正在努力為該計畫制定 FERC 申請，預計在明年秋季提交。

This is a great opportunity that diversifies Seneca's portfolio of takeaway capacity and improves its long-term ability to move Tioga County volumes to higher value markets. Additionally, it provides a layer of long-term growth for our Pipeline & Storage segment above and beyond the near-term increase in revenues we expect from the supply Corp rate case we filed in July. That proceeding is moving along according to schedule and settlement discussions should commence by December.

這是一個絕佳的機會，可以使 Seneca 的外賣能力組合多樣化，並提高其將泰奧加縣的銷量轉移到更高價值市場的長期能力。此外，它為我們的管道和儲存部門提供了一層長期成長，超出了我們從 7 月提交的供應公司費率案例中預期的近期收入成長。該訴訟程序正在按計劃進行，和解討論將於 12 月開始。

We have a history of settling FERC rate cases and are optimistic we'll do so with this case. We've also been active on the utility ratemaking side. Our $23 million rate increase in Pennsylvania was approved in June and new rates went into effect August 1. While we saw a modest impact during the fourth quarter, we will see most of that increase reflected in the first and second quarters of fiscal '24 when customer consumption is the highest.

我們有解決 FERC 費率案件的歷史，並且對本案的解決持樂觀態度。我們在公用事業費率制定方面也很活躍。我們在賓州的2,300 萬美元升息已於6 月獲得批准，新費率於8 月1 日生效。雖然我們在第四季度看到了適度的影響，但我們將看到大部分成長反映在24財年的第一季和第二季度，屆時顧客消費是最高的。

Also, as a reminder, as part of this proceeding, we implemented a new weather normalization clause, which should help dampen the volatility in our fiscal '24 utility earnings.

另外，提醒一下，作為此程序的一部分，我們實施了一項新的天氣正常化條款，這應該有助於抑制我們 24 財年公用事業收入的波動。

Switching to New York. This past Tuesday, we filed a rate case in that jurisdiction that is our first since 2016. In it, we've asked for an $89 million annual increase effective October 1, 2024. There are several drivers of the need for increased rates.

切換到紐約。上週二，我們在該司法管轄區提起了自2016 年以來的首起費率訴訟。在該案件中，我們要求自2024 年10 月1 日起每年增加8,900 萬美元。提高費率的需求有多個驅動因素。

First, as you know, we have modernization trackers that have allowed us to stay out of a rate case for the past several years, but the ability to add new investments to those trackers sunsets on September 30, 2024. Further, continued wage inflation and the ongoing cost of complying with both new regulations and the state's Climate Act are also driving the need for this proposed rate increase.

首先，如您所知，我們擁有現代化追蹤器，使我們能夠在過去幾年中遠離利率情況，但向這些追蹤器添加新投資的能力將於2024 年9 月30 日日落。此外，持續的工資通膨和遵守新法規和州氣候法案的持續成本也推動了擬議加息的需要。

Other notable items in the filing include a proposal for a bad debt expense tracker and several initiatives aimed at implementing practical decarbonization solutions that leverage our reliable, resilient and affordable natural gas delivery system. A summary of the filing is included on Page 35 of our updated IR deck. We'll have more to say next spring as we get through the early stages of the rate case and see testimony from commission staff and other interveners.

文件中的其他值得注意的項目包括壞帳費用追蹤系統的提案以及旨在實施實用脫碳解決方案的多項舉措，這些解決方案利用我們可靠、有彈性且負擔得起的天然氣輸送系統。提交的摘要包含在我們更新的 IR 資料的第 35 頁。明年春天，當我們完成利率案件的早期階段並看到委員會工作人員和其他幹預者的證詞時，我們將有更多話要說。

In closing, the outlook for National Fuel remains strong. With our recent ratemaking activity, we expect to see significant earnings growth in our regulated businesses over the next 2 years. Looking beyond that, we expect growth from our Tioga Pathway project and from the ongoing modernization of our transmission, storage and distribution systems, which in addition to ensuring the safety and integrity of our operations, should drive annual rate base growth of at least 5% in those businesses, which in turn should translate into earnings growth in the mid- to high single digits over the next 3 to 5 years.

最後，國家燃料公司的前景依然強勁。透過我們最近的利率制定活動，我們預計未來兩年受監管業務的獲利將顯著成長。除此之外，我們預計 Tioga Pathway 專案以及輸電、儲存和配電系統的持續現代化將帶來成長，這除了確保我們營運的安全性和完整性外，還應推動年費率基數成長至少 5%這些業務的收益將在未來3 至5 年內轉化為中高個位數的獲利成長。

On the nonregulated side, the outlook for free cash flow generation is robust. As we move fully through the transition to the EDA and further high-grade our development program, we expect continued improvement in capital efficiency and returns. Combining this with the improving outlook for natural gas prices and our strong hedge portfolio that supports increasing price realizations, we expect significant cash flow -- growth in free cash flow and earnings out of these businesses.

在非監管方面，自由現金流產生的前景十分強勁。隨著我們全面完成向 EDA 的過渡並進一步提高我們的開發計劃，我們預計資本效率和回報將持續提高。結合天然氣價格前景的改善以及我們支持價格上漲的強大對沖投資組合，我們預計將出現顯著的現金流——自由現金流和這些業務的收益的增長。

From a value proposition standpoint, National Fuel is unique amongst our peers. We have a clear line of sight to significant growth in our regulated earnings and assuming the current natural gas strip, the potential for very meaningful earnings growth and free cash flow growth in our nonregulated subsidiaries, all of which positions us well to deliver significant value to our shareholders in the coming years.

從價值主張的角度來看，National Fuel 在我們的同業中是獨一無二的。我們對受監管收益的顯著增長有清晰的認識，並假設目前的天然氣帶、我們非受監管子公司的收益增長和自由現金流增長的潛力非常有意義，所有這些都使我們能夠為客戶創造巨大的價值。我們的股東在未來幾年。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin.

這樣，我會將電話轉給賈斯汀。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Fiscal '23 was a great year for both Seneca and NFG Midstream and sets up our Appalachian development program for continued success in the years ahead. Seneca registered another year of record net production, averaging over 1 Bcfe per day, which combined with increasing third-party volumes, drove record revenues at Midstream.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。 23 財年對 Seneca 和 NFG Midstream 來說都是偉大的一年，並製定了我們的阿巴拉契亞發展計劃，以便在未來幾年繼續取得成功。 Seneca 的淨產量又創下歷史新高，平均每天超過 1 Bcfe，再加上第三方產量的增加，推動了 Midstream 創紀錄的收入。

We also began our transition to an EDA-focused development plan, which is supported by continued strong well results in Tioga County and the integration of recent bolt-on acquisitions that further bolster our deep inventory of highly economic future development locations. Our integrated approach to development creates capital efficiency tailwinds with Seneca increasingly targeting its highest returning area and Midstream leveraging its significant existing gathering trunk lines and centralized facilities.

我們也開始向以EDA 為重點的開發計劃過渡，該計劃得到了泰奧加縣持續強勁的油井業績以及近期補強收購的整合的支持，這些收購進一步增強了我們高度經濟的未來開發地點的深度庫存。我們的綜合開發方法創造了資本效率順風，塞內卡越來越多地瞄準其最高回報區域和中游，利用其重要的現有集水幹線和集中設施。

Starting with Midstream, we achieved several notable milestones in fiscal '23, including record throughput and EBITDA. Throughput increased more than 8% to over 1.2 Bcf per day with third-party gathering volumes increasing nearly 20% over the prior year. EBITDA also increased 5% year-over-year to $186 million.

從中游開始，我們在 23 財年實現了幾個顯著的里程碑，包括創紀錄的吞吐量和 EBITDA。吞吐量增加了 8% 以上，達到每天 1.2 Bcf 以上，第三方收集量比前一年增加了近 20%。 EBITDA 也年增 5%，達到 1.86 億美元。

Looking to fiscal '24, we expect this growth to continue as we focus on the ongoing coordinated infrastructure build-out with Seneca to support a shift to an EDA-weighted development program.

展望 24 財年，我們預計這種成長將持續下去，因為我們專注於與 Seneca 持續協調的基礎設施建設，以支持向 EDA 加權開發計劃的轉變。

Moving to Seneca's '23 results, we concluded the year with a strong fourth quarter, producing 94 Bcfe. Our team delivered fiscal year production of 372 Bcfe, an increase of 6% year-over-year. These strong results included the impact of 6 Bcf of voluntary curtailments due to low in-basin pricing. Seneca's reserves also grew to over 4.5 Tcfe as of fiscal year-end, with net additions and revisions of over 700 Bcfe, representing an annual increase of 9% and an impressive nearly 200% reserve replacement.

轉向 Seneca '23 的業績，我們以強勁的第四季度結束了這一年，生產了 94 Bcfe。我們的團隊在本財年的產量為 372 Bcfe，年增 6%。這些強勁的業績包括由於流域內定價較低而導致 6 Bcf 自願限電的影響。截至本財年末，Seneca 的儲備也成長至超過 4.5 Tcfe，淨增加和修正超過 700 Bcfe，年增長率為 9%，儲備替代量令人印象深刻，接近 200%。

In addition to record production and reserves, during fiscal '23, Seneca expanded its highly economic EDA position. As previously announced, we closed on three separate largely contiguous acquisitions in the third quarter. And in the fourth quarter, we added an additional 3,000 acres, the majority of which is held in fee. These transactions added 50 to 70 new development locations with high NRIs and significantly increased lateral lengths on over 20 existing development locations.

除了創紀錄的產量和儲量之外，Seneca 在 23 財年還擴大了其高度經濟的 EDA 地位。正如先前宣布的那樣，我們在第三季完成了三項獨立的、基本上是連續的收購。在第四季度，我們又增加了 3,000 英畝土地，其中大部分是收費的。這些交易增加了 50 至 70 個具有高 NRI 的新開發地點，並顯著增加了 20 多個現有開發地點的橫向長度。

At a time when much of the industry is facing poor inventory exhaustion and moving to develop lower tier acreage, we have meaningfully expanded our core inventory position and shifted our focus towards our highest returning areas, which will drive improving capital efficiency going forward.

在許多行業面臨庫存枯竭並轉向開發較低層面積之際，我們有意義地擴大了我們的核心庫存頭寸，並將重點轉向回報率最高的領域，這將推動提高未來的資本效率。

Looking to fiscal '24, our capital guidance remains unchanged at $525 million to $575 million, an expected decrease of 6% versus fiscal '23 capital expenditures at the midpoint of guidance.

展望 24 財年，我們的資本指引維持在 5.25 億至 5.75 億美元不變，與 23 財年指導中點的資本支出相比，預計下降 6%。

With respect to production, we are maintaining our guidance of 390 to 410 Bcfe, up 7% at the midpoint relative to fiscal '23. We expect the cadence of development activity and capital spend will be weighted toward the first half of the year to bring new pads and flush production online during the winter months, with 27 TILs planned in Q1 and Q2.

在產量方面，我們維持 390 至 410 Bcfe 的指導，相對於 23 財年中點成長 7%。我們預計開發活動和資本支出的節奏將集中在今年上半年，以便在冬季上線新的墊片和沖洗生產，並計劃在第一季和第二季進行 27 個 TIL。

As a result, we expect relatively flat production in Q1 over the prior quarter, with significant growth into Q2 production and then shallow declines throughout the back half of the year. Longer term, Seneca's development plan remains unchanged. We expect to continue to focus our investments in the EDA and will target maintenance to low single-digit production growth.

因此，我們預計第一季的產量與上一季相比相對持平，第二季的產量將大幅成長，然後在今年下半年出現小幅下降。長期來看，Seneca的發展計畫保持不變。我們預計將繼續將投資重點放在 EDA 上，並將目標維持在低個位數的產量成長。

As we make this transition, beginning in fiscal '25, we expect the combined annual capital expenditures for Seneca and Midstream will be $50 million to $150 million below fiscal '23 levels.

當我們從 25 財年開始進行這項轉變時，我們預計 Seneca 和 Midstream 的年度資本支出總額將比 23 財年水準低 5,000 萬至 1.5 億美元。

Turning to our marketing and hedging plans. We expect continued price volatility in the near term and have positioned our portfolio accordingly. In fiscal '24, we have downside pricing protection for approximately 70% of our expected production through a combination of swaps, costless collars and fixed price firm sales. In addition, we have takeaway capacity through firm transport and firm sales for nearly 90% of expected 24 production.

轉向我們的行銷和對沖計劃。我們預計短期內價格將持續波動，並相應地調整了我們的投資組合。在 24 財年，我們透過互換、無成本項圈和固定價格固定銷售相結合，為約 70% 的預期產量提供了下行定價保護。此外，我們透過堅定運輸和堅定銷售擁有外帶能力，可滿足 24 預計產量的近 90%。

Our longer-term marketing efforts are focused on basis protection, and we will look to mitigate basis risk while working to capture the upside we anticipate in natural gas pricing based on the forward curve and market fundamentals. We also continue to evaluate additional takeaway capacity to support our development plans.

我們的長期行銷工作著重於基差保護，我們將尋求降低基差風險，同時努力捕捉我們根據遠期曲線和市場基本面預測的天然氣定價的上行空間。我們也繼續評估額外的外送能力以支持我們的發展計劃。

This quarter, we made significant headway on that front. As Dave said, we committed to the $190 million (sic) 190,000 Dth a day Tioga Pathway project, which will transport growing Tioga County production into more favorable markets on Tennessee and directly into our Leidy South capacity. This project has a target in-service date of late calendar 2026.

本季度，我們在這方面取得了重大進展。正如Dave 所說，我們致力於耗資1.9 億美元（原文如此）每天190,000 Dth 的Tioga Pathway 項目，該項目將把不斷增長的Tioga 縣產量輸送到田納西州更有利的市場，並直接輸送到我們的Leidy South 產能中。本計畫的目標投入使用日期為 2026 年末。

Moving to safety and sustainability, I would like to highlight some impressive achievements. As described in our corporate responsibility report, which we released in September, Seneca and Midstream have a 27% and 14% reductions, respectively, and methane intensity as compared to the 2020 baseline. Additionally, in August, [Seneca] was recertified under the MIQ standard for methane emissions performance with an A grade, the highest certification level available.

說到安全和永續發展，我想強調一些令人印象深刻的成就。正如我們在 9 月發布的企業責任報告中所述，與 2020 年基準相比，Seneca 和 Midstream 的甲烷強度分別減少了 27% 和 14%。此外，8 月，[Seneca] 根據 MIQ 標準的甲烷排放性能重新獲得了 A 級認證，這是現有的最高認證等級。

Similarly, in September, Midstream attained certification on 100% of its assets under EquiOrigins EO100 standard, making it the first natural gas gathering entity to attain certification under this process. Also, in fiscal '23, Midstream and Seneca each completed another year with 0 DART injuries, a multiyear streak we will work hard to continue. These achievements collectively demonstrate our focus on safety and continuous improvement in the sustainability of our operations.

同樣，9月份，Midstream其資產100%獲得了EquiOrigins EO100標準認證，成為第一個獲得此流程認證的天然氣收集實體。此外，在 23 財年，Midstream 和 Seneca 又各自完成了 0 DART 傷害的一年，我們將努力繼續這多年連續記錄。這些成就共同體現了我們對安全的關注以及對營運永續性的持續改進。

In conclusion, Seneca and Energy Midstream are well positioned for continued success in the years ahead. Our long-term development plan prioritizes returns, capital efficiency and increasing free cash flow generation and is supported by a strong portfolio of takeaway capacity and the deep inventory of EA and WDA development locations. We have the talent, the assets and the operational track record to continue to successfully execute while maintaining the highest standards for sustainability and safety.

總之，Seneca 和 Energy Midstream 已做好準備，在未來幾年繼續取得成功。我們的長期發展計畫優先考慮回報、資本效率和增加自由現金流的產生，並得到強大的外賣能力組合以及 EA 和 WDA 開發地點的豐富庫存的支持。我們擁有人才、資產和營運記錄，可以繼續成功執行任務，同時保持最高的永續性和安全標準。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

這樣，我會將電話轉給提姆。

Thanks, Justin, and good morning, everyone. Last night, National Fuel reported fourth quarter adjusted operating results of $0.78 per share. The decrease in earnings compared to last year was largely driven by lower realized natural gas prices.

謝謝賈斯汀，大家早安。昨晚，National Fuel 報告第四季度調整後經營業績為每股 0.78 美元。與去年相比，收益下降主要是由於天然氣價格下降所致。

For the quarter, NYMEX prices averaged $2.55 per MMBtu compared to more than $8 in last year's fourth quarter. However, our hedge portfolio mitigated a significant portion of this price decrease.

本季度，NYMEX 平均價格為每 MMBtu 2.55 美元，而去年第四季則超過 8 美元。然而，我們的對沖投資組合緩解了價格下跌的很大一部分。

In addition to pricing, there are a few other items that I want to hit on with respect to our reported results and fiscal 2024 guidance. First, capital spending for fiscal 2023 came in slightly above the high end of our guidance range. Breaking it down by segment, our Upstream and Gathering businesses came in right on top of the midpoint of their respective ranges. However, we finished the year above our spending guidance ranges for both of our regulated segments.

除了定價之外，我還想談談關於我們報告的業績和 2024 財年指導的其他一些問題。首先，2023 財年的資本支出略高於我們指引範圍的上限。依細分市場細分，我們的上游和採集業務正好位於各自範圍的中點之上。然而，我們今年的兩個受監管部門的支出指導範圍都超出了我們的目標。

Construction activity came in ahead of schedule in the fourth quarter. With rate cases on file on our New York Utility and Supply Corp. subsidiary, and the availability of a system improvement tracking mechanism in our Pennsylvania utility, we've been working hard to ensure that our modernization program stays on track and the associated capital is placed in service as efficiently as possible.

第四季的建築活動提前進行。隨著我們紐約公用事業和供應公司子公司的費率案例存檔，以及我們賓夕法尼亞公用事業公司係統改進追蹤機制的可用性，我們一直在努力確保我們的現代化計劃保持在正軌上，並且相關資本盡可能高效地投入使用。

While this pushed us above our previous guidance range, it was important to get this plan in service in order to ensure that we are able to earn a timely return on these investments.

雖然這使我們超出了先前的指導範圍，但重要的是讓該計劃投入使用，以確保我們能夠及時從這些投資中獲得回報。

Next, our DDA rate of $0.65 per Mcfe for the fiscal year was above the high end of our guidance range. This was driven principally by our ongoing transition towards an EDA focused development program, where well productivity and returns are superior to our Western development area.

接下來，本財年我們的 DDA 利率為每 Mcfe 0.65 美元，高於我們指導範圍的上限。這主要是由於我們正在向以 EDA 為重點的開發計劃轉型，該計劃的油井生產率和回報優於我們的西部開發區。

Despite this return profile, these wells tend to carry a higher F&D cost than those in the WDA. In addition, we added 40 proved undeveloped locations to our reserves this year, totaling an excess of 500 Bcfe. These reserve adds were more than previously projected, which is a positive indicator of the success we are seeing in the EDA. However, this does drive our DD&A rate up as those reserves initially carry a higher implied depletion rate until they are fully developed. Together, these factors impacted the fourth quarter and are the main driver behind the projected increase in our fiscal 2024 DD&A rate. Despite this, Seneca's outlook for capital spending and free cash flow generation over the next few years remains unchanged.

儘管回報情況如此，但這些油井的 F&D 成本往往比 WDA 中的油井更高。此外，今年我們還增加了 40 個已探明未開發地點的儲備，總計超過 500 Bcfe。這些儲備增加量超出了先前的預期，這是我們在 EDA 中看到的成功的正面指標。然而，這確實推高了我們的 DD&A 率，因為這些儲備最初具有較高的隱含損耗率，直到完全開發為止。這些因素共同影響了第四季度，並且是 2024 財年 DD&A 費率預計成長的主要驅動力。儘管如此，塞內卡對未來幾年資本支出和自由現金流產生的前景保持不變。

Switching to income taxes. Earlier in the year, the IRS released long-awaited guidance related to the treatment of certain capital expenditures to maintain and improve natural gas transmission and distribution property. We recorded an initial estimate of the impact of this guidance in our fourth quarter results. This provided a nice earnings tailwind during the quarter that will carry into future years.

轉向所得稅。今年早些時候，美國國稅局發布了期待已久的指導意見，涉及處理某些資本支出，以維護和改善天然氣傳輸和分配財產。我們在第四季度業績中記錄了對該指導意見影響的初步估計。這為本季的獲利帶來了良好的推動力，並將持續到未來幾年。

Looking specifically at fiscal 2024, we are estimating a 50 basis point reduction to our overall effective tax rate, which is now expected to be in the range of 25% to 25.5% This updated IRS guidance is expected to provide a meaningful benefit to our cash taxes, which has been reflected in our revised free cash flow outlook for 2024.

具體來看 2024 財年，我們預計整體有效稅率將降低 50 個基點，目前預計在 25% 至 25.5% 範圍內。更新後的 IRS 指導預計將為我們的現金帶來有意義的好處稅，這已反映在我們修訂後的2024 年自由現金流前景。

With these few changes incorporated into our fiscal 2024 projections, we have updated our earnings guidance to a range of $5.40 to $5.90 per share, which at the midpoint represents a 9% increase in earnings compared to fiscal 2023. Our NYMEX price assumption of $3.25 per MMBtu remains unchanged. And for reference, a $0.25 change in pricing would impact earnings per share by approximately $0.27.

透過將這些少量變更納入我們的2024 財年預測中，我們將獲利指引更新為每股5.40 美元至5.90 美元，與2023 財年相比，中位數意味著獲利成長9%。我們的NYMEX 價格假設為每股3.25 美元MMBtu 維持不變。作為參考，定價 0.25 美元的變化將影響每股收益約 0.27 美元。

Additionally, with the tailwind on our expected cash tax rate in 2024, we are now expecting free cash flow to be approximately $200 million for the year, an increase of roughly 20% compared to our prior estimate. This expected level of free cash flow more than covers our increasing dividend rate projected for the year and positions us well as we target significant free cash flow growth in the years that follow.

此外，隨著我們對 2024 年預期現金稅率的推動，我們目前預計全年自由現金流約為 2 億美元，比我們先前的估計增加約 20%。這一預期的自由現金流水準超過了我們預計的今年股息率的增長，並使我們能夠在未來幾年實現自由現金流顯著增長的目標。

From a balance sheet perspective, given where we exited fiscal 2023 and the outlook for 2024, we project our credit metrics to trend towards 2x debt to EBITDA and in excess of 40% FFO to debt over the next 12 months. This gives us significant cushion relative to our existing downgrade thresholds, and more importantly, would be very close to the upgrade thresholds established by the rating agencies.

從資產負債表的角度來看，考慮到我們2023 財年的退出情況和2024 年的前景，我們預計未來12 個月我們的信貸指標將趨向於債務與EBITDA 的2 倍，以及超過40% 的FFO與債務。相對於現有的降級閾值，這為我們提供了顯著的緩衝，更重要的是，這將非常接近評級機構設定的升級閾值。

We also have adequate liquidity with no long-term debt maturities until mid-2025 and approximately $700 million available under our committed credit facility, which does not mature until 2027.

我們也擁有充足的流動性，在 2025 年中期之前沒有長期債務到期，並且我們承諾的信貸安排下提供約 7 億美元的可用資金，該信貸安排要到 2027 年才會到期。

In conclusion, National Fuel is positioned to create meaningful value well into the future, whether it is additional organic growth opportunities such as the Tioga Pathway project, further highly strategic bolt-ons in our nonregulated segments or opportunities to rebalance our business mix by acquiring regulated assets at a fair price. We are focused on maintaining our track record of making strategic investments that deliver returns well in excess of our cost of capital over the long term.

總而言之，National Fuel 的定位是在未來創造有意義的價值，無論是Tioga Pathway 專案等額外的有機成長機會，還是我們非監管領域的進一步高度策略性補充，還是透過收購受監管的業務來重新平衡我們的業務組合的機會資產以公平的價格。我們致力於維持策略性投資的記錄，從長遠來看，這些投資的回報遠遠超過我們的資本成本。

Our ability to leverage a strong balance sheet and long-term outlook for free cash flow generation provides us with the flexibility to pursue the best value-creating opportunities for our shareholders.

我們利用強大的資產負債表和產生自由現金流的長期前景的能力，使我們能夠靈活地為股東追求最佳的價值創造機會。

With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

然後，我會要求接線員開通提問線路。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) The first question will be from the line of Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

Let me start with the Tioga Pathway project, where you plan to add 190 MMcf per diff capacity coming online in 2026. I wanted to get a sense in terms of how you plan to -- what are the plans around the Upstream segment? Do you plan to grow production to fill in the capacity? And if any color you can provide in terms of potential uplift in netbacks through the project.

讓我從 Tioga Pathway 專案開始，您計劃在 2026 年上線時為每個差異容量增加 190 MMcf。我想了解您的計劃 - 上游領域有哪些計劃？您是否計劃增加產量來填補產能？如果您可以提供有關該項目淨收益潛在提升的任何資訊。

Sure. Thanks for the question. So yes, this is all part of our longer-term kind of strategic growth plans in Tioga and creating additional takeaway capacity that will allow for the growth that we have planned.

當然。謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，這都是我們在 Tioga 的長期策略成長計畫的一部分，並創造額外的外賣能力，以實現我們計劃的成長。

If you look at our production rates today, over 1 Bcf a day net. And a lot of that production will continue to shift. One, we intend to continue growing, and then a lot of that production will shift to being coming out of Tioga. So it's important for us to have access to diverse markets and also the best pricing we can get.

如果您看看我們今天的生產率，每天淨產量超過 1 Bcf。其中很多生產將繼續轉移。第一，我們打算繼續成長，然後大部分生產將轉移到泰奧加。因此，進入多元化市場以及獲得最佳定價對我們來說非常重要。

The Tioga Pathways project achieves both of those opportunities for us. So we'll be able to move gas to markets where we do anticipate getting an uplift relative to what we could sell into the markets that are available to us today just right in Tioga.

Tioga Pathways 計畫為我們實現了這兩個機會。因此，我們將能夠將天然氣運送到我們確實預計會比我們今天可以在泰奧加市場銷售的天然氣有所提升的市場。

And then on top of that, it will allow for growth and diversification when we think about how much gas we'll be producing out of Tioga as we get out a couple 3 years from now and then continue that development plan for many, many years beyond that.

最重要的是，當我們考慮三年後我們將從 Tioga 生產多少天然氣，然後繼續該開發計劃很多很多年時，它將允許增長和多樣化除此之外。

Helpful. And then would love your updated views around the M&A landscape and the broader macro. Any color you can provide there would be helpful.

有幫助。然後，我會喜歡你對併購格局和更廣泛宏觀的最新看法。您可以提供的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. Happy to hit on that. Obviously, there's been a tremendous amount of activity recently, more really big transactions and certainly more generally speaking, Permian focused. Our view is that there could be additional M&A. But certainly, there's nothing that -- we don't see necessarily a wave kind of coming across Appalachia that would consolidate the industry. Perhaps at some point, that will happen, but these other recent deals that we've seen seem to be more focused. And definitely, the Permian continues to be the area where I think we'll continue to see the most M&A focus.

當然。很高興能做到這一點。顯然，最近有大量的活動，更多真正的大交易，當然更一般地說，集中在二疊紀。我們的觀點是可能會有更多的併購。但可以肯定的是，我們認為阿巴拉契亞地區的浪潮不一定會鞏固這個產業。也許在某個時候，這種情況會發生，但我們最近看到的其他交易似乎更有針對性。毫無疑問，二疊紀仍然是我們將繼續看到併購最多的地區。

Got you. Anything on the utility and the regulated side where you see potential areas which can be a focus area for the company longer term, I guess?

明白你了。我想，在公用事業和監管方面，您認為有哪些潛在領域可以成為公司長期關注的領域？

Yes. I think over time, we'll see assets come on the market. As I've said in the past, our interest is in properties that would be nearest in proximity to us. It's a long-term business. So we're going to stay focused on evaluating properties that come on to the market.

是的。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將看到資產進入市場。正如我過去所說，我們的興趣在於距離我們最近的房產。這是一項長期事業。因此，我們將繼續專注於評估上市的房產。

The next question will be from the line of Zach Parham with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Zach Parham。

Tim, maybe just a follow-up for you on your prepared remarks just on cash taxes over the longer term. I think in the past, you've talked about high single digits in 2024. Is that still the case? And maybe could you provide some thoughts on what longer-term cash taxes might look like?

提姆，也許只是您準備好的關於長期現金稅的評論的後續內容。我想過去您曾談到2024年的高個位數成長。現在仍然如此嗎？也許您可以提供一些關於長期現金稅可能會是什麼樣子的想法嗎？

Sure, Zach. Yes, I would say where we sit right now, that high single-digit 10% area for 2024 still feels like the right number. The new repairs guidance, they make that move around a little bit as we go through time.

當然，扎克。是的，我想說的是，我們現在所處的位置，2024 年的個位數 10% 區域仍然感覺是正確的數字。新的維修指南，隨著時間的推移，它們會稍微改變一下。

Longer term, over the next, say, 2 or 3 years, I would expect this to trend a bit ratably up to the low 20% area and then hold that run rate over the long term.

從長遠來看，在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，我預計這一趨勢將略微上升至 20% 的低位區域，然後長期保持這一運行率。

That's great color. And then, Justin, maybe just one for you on the E&P business. Could you just give us an update on how things are going with your e-fleet? I know you added it around mid-year. Maybe just any color on efficiency or cost gains you've seen thus far?

那顏色真棒。然後，賈斯汀，也許只是適合您的勘探與生產業務。您能否向我們介紹一下您的電子車隊的最新情況？我知道你是在年中左右添加的。也許只是您迄今為止看到的關於效率或成本效益的任何顏色？

Sure, happy to. So we're currently completing our third pad with the new e-fleet. It's gone very well. And one of the things I'm most happy to see is that we're achieving approximately 90% diesel displacement at this point out of that fleet, which is what we were hoping to do. That has an additional benefit, which is diesel prices are starting to move upward and our exposure to that is much more limited than it would be if you're using Tier 2, Tier 4 fleet.

當然，很高興。因此，我們目前正在用新的電子車隊完成我們的第三個基地。一切進展順利。我最高興看到的一件事是，我們目前該船隊的柴油排氣量達到了約 90%，這正是我們希望做到的。這還有一個額外的好處，那就是柴油價格開始上漲，而我們所面臨的風險比使用二級、四級車隊時要有限得多。

So overall, positive. And we're just prosecuting the development plan and intend to continue using it and able to use our own gathering system to provide the gas, which is a dual benefit.

總體而言，積極。我們只是在執行開發計劃，並打算繼續使用它，並且能夠使用我們自己的收集系統來提供天然氣，這是雙重好處。

The next question will be from the line of John Abbott with Bank of America.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行的約翰·阿博特。

So this question may be for Tim here. It's on the utility rate case that was filed for New York and the $89 million increase that you're looking to obtain. When you sort of look at other -- I mean, when you look at that number and you look at what other peer utilities have asked for within the state. What's your sort of confidence on that sort of number?

所以這個問題可能是問提姆的。這是針對紐約提起的公用事業費率案件以及您希望獲得的 8,900 萬美元的增長。當你看看其他的時候——我的意思是，當你看看這個數字，然後看看州內其他同行公用事業公司的要求時。您對這樣的數字有什麼信心？

Yes, John, it's a good question. I think we're starting right now from a position of very low delivery rates. We're the lowest delivery rate company in New York State. All of the other utilities that have been in, they're facing the exact same cost pressures that we are seeing. So while on the surface, it's a larger increase that the fact that we've stayed out of a rate case since 2016, and our delivery rates really haven't been unchanged since 2008 for the most part.

是的，約翰，這是個好問題。我認為我們現在正從交付率非常低的位置開始。我們是紐約州送貨率最低的公司。所有其他參與其中的公用事業公司都面臨著與我們所看到的完全相同的成本壓力。因此，從表面上看，這是一個更大的增長，事實上我們自 2016 年以來一直沒有參與費率案例，而且自 2008 年以來我們的交付費率實際上在很大程度上沒有變化。

I think we're hopeful we get a good settlement that allows us to earn the returns and recover the costs that we have. But it's early on in the proceedings. I don't want to speak to exactly the direction of travel it will take. But hopefully, that gives you some color.

我認為我們希望能夠達成良好的和解，使我們能夠獲得回報並收回成本。但這還處於訴訟程序的早期階段。我不想確切地談論它的行進方向。但希望這能給你一些色彩。

And then you just spoke to the trajectory of cash taxes. But that new tax rate guide of 25% to 25.5%, is there a catch-up in that guide from 2023? And I guess my question is, is that the applicable rate post 2024? Or does it tick up towards the higher end of that range? How does that kind of work there, Tim?

然後你剛剛談到了現金稅的軌跡。但25%至25.5%的新稅率指導，是否會追趕2023年的稅率？我想我的問題是，這是 2024 年後的適用稅率嗎？或者它會朝著該範圍的高端上升？提姆，那是如何運作的？

Yes. So there is no effective rating impact of the catch-up. That all happens as a temporary difference from a tax perspective. So that isn't driving it. It's largely driven by the nature of our Pennsylvania jurisdiction and how they treat repairs in this deduction specifically.

是的。因此追趕並沒有產生有效的評級影響。從稅務角度來看，這一切都是暫時的差異。所以這不是驅動力。這在很大程度上是由我們賓州司法管轄區的性質以及他們在扣除中具體對待維修的方式決定的。

So I'd expect this effective tax rate ultimately to maintain relatively consistent levels, but it will depend on the level of capital that we deploy in Pennsylvania. And ultimately, how much of that is eligible for this deduction versus being capitalized from a tax perspective.

因此，我預計這個有效稅率最終將保持相對穩定的水平，但這將取決於我們在賓州部署的資本水平。最終，從稅收角度來看，其中有多少是符合扣除額的，而不是資本化的。

(Operator Instructions) The next question will be from the line of Trafford Bemar with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）下一個問題將來自 Trafford Bemar 和 Raymond James 的線路。

I guess my first one is probably for Justin. Just looking at the EDA. I was wondering if you could touch on maybe well productivity comparison between the Marcellus and the Utica and kind of how you all viewed the two targets from a planning and development standpoint, deciding which ones to drill?

我想我的第一個可能是給賈斯汀的。只看EDA。我想知道您是否可以談談馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡之間的生產力比較，以及您如何從規劃和開發的角度看待這兩個目標，決定鑽哪個目標？

Yes. Sure, Trafford. The well productivity we see is just higher deliverability out of the Utica. It's -- the pressures we have there are quite a bit higher. So what we can achieve out of those wells are sustained rates that are 15 million to 20 million Dth a day and sustaining those rates for many months. So you get a lot of gas, you hold pressure so that you get a lot of gas at a sustained rate for quite a long period of time. And given the contiguous nature of our development, we're able to drill very long laterals.

是的。當然，特拉福德。我們看到的井產能只是尤蒂卡的更高的產能。我們那裡的壓力要大得多。因此，我們可以從這些井中實現每天 1500 萬至 2000 萬迪特的持續產量，並維持這些產量數月。所以你會得到大量的氣體，你會保持壓力，這樣你就會在相當長的一段時間內以持續的速度得到大量的氣體。鑑於我們開發的連續性，我們能夠鑽探很長的支管。

Pretty much all of our laterals are north of 10,000 feet, probably the average is in the 11,000 to 13,000 foot TLL. The Marcellus wells are great. They don't have quite the pressures. The deliverability we have in Tioga is very good. What benefits those is they're a little bit lower cost. They're lower pressure. They're a little shallower, so less money to drill and completion designs on those wells are a little bit less intense, bringing the cost down.

我們幾乎所有的支線都在 10,000 英尺以北，平均高度可能在 11,000 到 13,000 英尺 TLL 之間。馬塞勒斯井很棒。他們沒有太大的壓力。我們在泰奧加的交付能力非常好。這些的好處是它們的成本稍微低一些。他們的壓力較低。它們的深度較淺，因此鑽探所需的資金較少，而且這些井的完井設計強度也較小，從而降低了成本。

So they're both excellent targets for us from an economic perspective, we're happy to go to either one. And really, our development plan is guided by what makes the most sense collectively between Seneca and midstream as we work to develop across that entire position ultimately looking to deploy as few dollars as possible between the two entities and kind of marching through the acreage we have. And so that's what really will guide it. Both targets, Marcellus and Utica, are excellent. So we're going to keep working through all the inventory we have over the next many, many years.

因此，從經濟角度來看，它們都是我們的絕佳目標，我們很樂意選擇其中任何一個。事實上，我們的發展計劃是以塞內卡和中游之間最有意義的集體為指導的，因為我們努力在整個位置上進行開發，最終希望在兩個實體之間部署盡可能少的美元，並在我們擁有的土地上進行前進。這才是真正的指導。馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡這兩個目標都非常出色。因此，我們將在接下來的許多年裡繼續處理我們擁有的所有庫存。

Perfect. I appreciate the color on that. And then one quick one on the 2 Bcf price-related curtailments. Was that the -- was that largely the pipe maintenance, I'm assuming?

完美的。我很欣賞它的顏色。然後快速介紹一下 2 Bcf 與價格相關的削減。我猜這主要是管道維護嗎？

No. So I'm not counting pipeline maintenance in that. That is purely -- there were times in the last quarter where gas prices were terrible, the in-basin gas pricing even below $1 and less. And there's times when prices are very low like that, we will voluntarily curtail.

不，所以我沒有將管道維護計算在內。這純粹是——上個季度天然氣價格有時很糟糕，盆地內天然氣價格甚至低於 1 美元甚至更低。有時當價格非常低時，我們會自願減少。

So we maintain a small portion of our overall production that is exposed to in-basin pricing. That's intentional. And so like I spoke for '24, we have about 90% of our production that has access to firm transporter, firm sales, that leaves about 10% in there. And so when I talk about that 2 Bs, what I'm really getting at is that layer that doesn't necessarily have a home, if you will. If we see prices that are extremely depressed, call it below $1 or in that vicinity, we choose not to sell that gas, and we will simply curtail the well, choke the wells back, shut them in for a period of time and then wait for better pricing, like you see now as we start to see the beginnings of winter and find that to be a far better economic answer for our company.

因此，我們維持了總產量的一小部分受到盆地內定價的影響。這是故意的。就像我在 24 年所說的那樣，我們大約 90% 的產品都可以透過公司運輸、公司銷售，剩下大約 10% 在那裡。因此，當我談論這 2 個 B 時，我真正想說的是，如果你願意的話，那層不一定有自己的家。如果我們看到價格極度低迷，將其稱為低於 1 美元或在該附近，我們選擇不出售該天然氣，我們將簡單地縮減油井，堵塞油井，將其關閉一段時間，然後等待以獲得更好的定價，就像你現在看到的那樣，當我們開始看到冬天的開始時，發現這對我們公司來說是一個更好的經濟答案。

At this time, there are no further questions in the queue. So I will turn the call back over to Brandon for final remarks.

此時，隊列中沒有其他問題。因此，我將把電話轉回給布蘭登，讓他發表最後的評論。

Thank you, Kate. We'd like to thank everyone for taking the time to be with us today. A replay of this call will be available this afternoon on both our website and by telephone and will run through the close of business on Thursday, November 9. To access the replay online, please visit our Investor Relations website at investor.nationalfuelgas.com, and to access by telephone, call 1 (866) 813-9403, provide access code 693074. This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you, and goodbye.

謝謝你，凱特。我們要感謝大家今天抽出時間與我們在一起。今天下午，我們將在我們的網站和電話上提供本次電話會議的重播，並將持續到11 月9 日星期四營業結束時。要在線觀看重播，請訪問我們的投資者關係網站Investor.nationalfuelgas. com，如需透過電話訪問，請致電 1 (866) 813-9403，並提供訪問代碼 693074。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝，再見。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。