紐蒙特黃金公司 (NEM) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營運穩健,產出 130 萬盎司黃金、2.3 萬噸銅、1,100 萬盎司白銀,創下單季自由現金流 19 億美元、調整後 EPS $2.20 的紀錄新高
    • 全年黃金 AISC 指引下修至約 $1,520/oz(較年初指引改善約 10%);2026 年產量、資本支出與其他指引維持不變,2027 年預期產量將恢復成長
    • 自 2024 年 2 月啟動回購計畫以來已回購超過 1.15 億股(約 10% 股本),Q3 宣布與 Barrick 修訂 Nevada Gold Mines JV,預計 Q4 完成交易
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Red Chris Block Cave 項目進入最終投資決策階段,預計 2027 年動工、2033 年商轉,長期產能與壽命具吸引力
      • Tanami 二期擴建進度超前,預計 2027 年 Q2 商轉,將帶動產量與效率提升
      • Lihir、Boddington、Cerro Negro 等礦區進入高品位礦段,2027 年起產量可望回升
      • 持續推進 Yanacocha、Cadia 等資產的低資本、短期增量機會,延長礦山壽命
    • 風險:
      • Lihir 受 El Niño 影響水資源風險,Q4 需密切監控,若嚴重恐影響產量與成本
      • 2027 年預期單位成本上升,主因為 Peñasquito 銀產量下滑、通膨與燃料價格壓力
      • 勞動力成本通膨壓力持續,特別是澳洲與美國部分地區,預期 2027 年增幅高於 2026 年的 3%
      • Red Chris、Lihir Nearshore Barrier 等大型資本支出將推升 2027 年開發資本需求
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 黃金產量:Q3 約 130 萬盎司,與 Q2 持平,全年預期 Q4 達 140 萬盎司為全年高點
    • 銅產量:Q3 2.3 萬噸
    • 白銀產量:Q3 1,100 萬盎司,Peñasquito Q4 預期減半,2027 年再降 30%
    • 黃金 AISC:Q3 $1,454/oz,全年指引下修至 $1,520/oz,Q4 預期升至 $1,900/oz
    • 自由現金流:Q3 19 億美元,前九月累計 73 億美元
    • 股本回購:自 2024 年 2 月起累計回購 1.15 億股,約佔總股本 10%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年產量、資本支出與其他指引維持不變,2027 年產量預期較 2026 年成長低至中個位數百分比
    • 2027 年開發資本預估較 2026 年增加約 5 億美元,主因 Red Chris、Lihir Nearshore Barrier 等項目推進
    • 2027 年維持資本支出與 2026 年相當,2028 年 Yanacocha 水處理廠完工後,相關支出將年減 4 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Red Chris 項目範疇變動與未來擴張規劃細節?40% 資本投入是否為地表或地下基礎設施?
      A: 範疇變動主要來自對地質結構的更深入理解,優化洞室設計與基礎設施配置,提升長期生產力與低成本潛力。40% 資本涵蓋地表與地下材料處理設施,將支援未來擴張。
    • Q: Yanacocha 2027 年及以後的產量展望?
      A: 經資產盤點後,Yanacocha 透過優化堆浸產能、無需重大資本投入,開發更多低成本短期機會,有望延長礦山壽命並提升產量。
    • Q: 油價敏感度是否包含勞動力通膨?近期勞動力市場狀況?
      A: 油價敏感度主要反映化學品、爆材、研磨介質等間接成本,不含勞動力通膨。勞動力成本預期 2027 年增幅高於 2026 年的 3%,但目前技術人才流動率可控,未見重大短缺。
    • Q: Tanami 二期擴建對 2027-2028 年現金成本與產量的影響?
      A: 2027 年商轉後將顯著提升地下礦石運輸能力,2028 年可望恢復至過往高產能水準,現金成本將隨產量提升而改善,但暫不提供單一礦區成本指引。
    • Q: Lihir 水資源風險與應對措施?
      A: 目前尚未受影響,已加強水資源管理,若水源短缺將優先保障社區供水,並可持續礦石開採與堆存,維持後續穩定供料。工廠可靠性提升亦有助於產量補回。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to Newmont's third-quarter 2026 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    各位好,歡迎參加紐蒙特(Newmont)2026 年第三季業績電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,本活動將被錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Newmont's Group Head of Treasury and Investor Relations, Neil Backhouse. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把會議交給紐蒙特資金管理與投資人關係集團主管 Neil Backhouse。請開始。

  • Neil Backhouse - Head, Investor Relations

    Neil Backhouse - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, [Rebecca]. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Newmont’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Natascha Viljoen, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Brian Tabolt, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; as well as other members of our management team who will be available to answer questions at the end of the call.

    謝謝你,[Rebecca]。各位好,感謝各位參加紐蒙特 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:我們的總裁兼執行長 Natascha Viljoen;執行副總裁兼財務長 Brian Tabolt;以及管理團隊的其他成員,他們將在電話會議結束前的問答環節回答問題。

  • Before we begin, please take a moment to review our cautionary statement shown here and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Natascha.

    在開始之前,請花點時間閱讀此處所示的警示性聲明,並參閱我們的 SEC 申報文件,可於我們的網站查閱。接下來,我把電話交給 Natascha。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Neil, and hello, everyone. Newmont delivered a stable third quarter, demonstrating the quality, resilience, and value-generation capacity of our world-class portfolio. Robust safety and operational performance, disciplined cost management, and higher silver production with realized prices enabled us to improve our full-year cost guidance while remaining firmly on track to achieve our production, capital, and other guidance metrics.

    謝謝你,Neil,各位好。紐蒙特在第三季交出穩健表現,展現我們世界級資產組合的品質、韌性與價值創造能力。強健的安全與營運表現、嚴謹的成本管理,以及更高的白銀產量與實現價格,使我們得以在仍然穩步達成產量、資本支出及其他指引指標的同時,上調全年成本指引表現。

  • I want to start with our operational performance. In the third quarter, Newmont safely produced approximately 1.3 million ounces of gold, 23,000 tonnes of copper, and a notable 11 million ounces of silver.

    我想先從營運表現談起。第三季,紐蒙特在安全前提下生產約 130 萬盎司黃金、2.3 萬噸銅,以及顯著的 1,100 萬盎司白銀。

  • As we indicated last quarter, gold production was broadly in line with the second quarter and reflected strong execution across the portfolio. This operational performance translated into strong financial results, including $1.9 billion of free cash flow and an adjusted net income of $2.20 per share, representing a third-quarter record. This strong cash generation continues to support our balanced approach to capital allocation.

    如同我們在上季所提到的,黃金產量大致與第二季持平,反映出我們在整體資產組合上的強勁執行力。此營運表現轉化為強勁的財務成果,包括 19 億美元自由現金流,以及每股 2.20 美元的調整後淨利,創下第三季新高紀錄。這股強勁的現金創造能力,持續支持我們在資本配置上的平衡策略。

  • Since our last earnings call, we have returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders through our quarterly dividend and ongoing share repurchases. I’m also pleased to share that we have now repurchased more than 115 million shares, representing approximately 10% of shares outstanding since launching the repurchase program in February 2024.

    自上次財報電話會議以來,我們已透過季度股利與持續的庫藏股回購,向股東回饋約 19 億美元。我也很高興分享,我們自 2024 年 2 月啟動回購計畫以來,已回購超過 1.15 億股,約占目前流通在外股數的 10%。

  • Beyond our safe operational and financial performance, we achieved several important milestones this quarter. First, we announced an amended joint venture agreement for Nevada Gold Mines, under which the previously excluded Fourmile, Fiberline & Mike properties will be contributed. We are very pleased with the outcome of this agreement, which aligns the interests of both partners and positions us to maximize the value of one of the world’s premier gold districts.

    除了安全的營運與財務表現之外,本季我們也達成數項重要里程碑。首先,我們宣布修訂內華達金礦(Nevada Gold Mines)的合資協議,先前被排除的 Fourmile、Fiberline 與 Mike 礦權將納入出資。我們對此協議成果非常滿意;該協議使雙方夥伴的利益一致,並讓我們能最大化全球頂尖金礦區之一的價值。

  • We continue to work collaboratively with our partner and expect to close the transaction during the fourth quarter. At Lihir, we safely completed the planned September shutdown on schedule and according to plan. We continue to expect higher-grade ore in the fourth quarter as planned. And finally, at Red Chris, we are finalizing the feasibility study for the Block Cave project and continue to advance toward a full funds decision early next year. And I will provide more detail a little bit later.

    我們持續與合作夥伴協同合作,並預期於第四季完成交易交割。在 Lihir,我們已按期且依計畫安全完成 9 月的既定停機檢修。我們仍預期第四季將如計畫處理更高品位礦石。最後,在 Red Chris,我們正完成 Block Cave 專案的可行性研究,並持續推進,目標於明年初做出最終投資決策。稍後我會提供更多細節。

  • As we move beyond the production trough previously indicated for in 2026, we expect production growth to begin in 2027. Looking further ahead, our portfolio of operating assets, projects in execution, and future development opportunities position Newmont to grow and sustain production for decades to come.

    隨著我們走出先前所提及 2026 年的產量低谷,我們預期產量成長將於 2027 年開始。展望更長期,我們由營運資產、執行中專案與未來開發機會所構成的資產組合,將使紐蒙特在未來數十年得以成長並維持產量。

  • Supporting both our near-term production growth and longer-term outlook is the progress we continue to make advancing our projects across the portfolio. In the third quarter, we continued to advance our development pipeline, achieving key milestones across multiple projects.

    支撐我們短期產量成長與長期展望的,是我們持續推進資產組合各項專案所取得的進展。第三季,我們持續推動開發管線,在多個專案上達成關鍵里程碑。

  • Most notably at the second expansion at Tanami, we have now completed construction on the 1.5-kilometer shaft. We remain on track for full mechanical completion by the end of this year, and our focus will shift towards commissioning as we move into 2027. We now expect commercial production by the end of the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously anticipated, with ramp-up activities continuing to the end of the year.

    其中最值得一提的是 Tanami 第二期擴建,我們已完成 1.5 公里豎井的建造工程。我們仍按計畫在今年底前達成全面機械完工,並將在邁入 2027 年時把重點轉向試車與投產準備(commissioning)。我們目前預期將於 2027 年第二季末前達到商業化生產,較先前預期更早,並在年底前持續進行爬坡作業。

  • At Cadia PC2-3, we remain on track for completion by the end of this year, with the final drawbell fired in September. This represents an important milestone as we begin transitioning activities from the project teams to operations. At PC1-2, cave establishment activities continue to advance on schedule, and we are pleased to report that the key regulatory approvals and associated requirements following the April seismic event have been achieved, allowing the project to continue advancing towards cave establishment.

    在 Cadia PC2-3,我們仍按計畫於今年底前完成,且已於 9 月完成最後一個 drawbell 的爆破。這是重要里程碑,代表我們開始將工作重心由專案團隊移交至營運端。在 PC1-2,洞穴建立(cave establishment)作業持續按進度推進;我們也很高興報告,4 月地震事件後所需的關鍵監管核准及相關要求均已達成,使專案得以持續朝洞穴建立階段推進。

  • The two water treatment plants at Yanacocha are progressing well and are approaching mechanical completion with commissioning activities underway. As these projects advance towards completion in 2027, closure spending is expected to be approximately $200 million lower in 2027 and $400 million lower in 2028 compared with 2026 levels.

    Yanacocha 的兩座水處理廠進展良好,正接近機械完工,並已展開試車作業。隨著這些專案在 2027 年邁向完工,預期 2027 年的關閉支出將較 2026 年水準約減少 2 億美元,2028 年則約減少 4 億美元。

  • As this cash flow becomes available, it will be reallocated to growth, partially offsetting an increase in development capital as we continue to invest in future projects and opportunities across our portfolio that generates the highest returns. These project milestones reinforce our confidence in Newmont’s proven ability to execute large, complex projects across jurisdictions safely, responsibly, and on schedule.

    當這些現金流釋出後,將重新配置至成長用途,部分抵銷我們持續投資於資產組合中具最高報酬之未來專案與機會所帶來的開發資本增加。這些專案里程碑強化了我們的信心:紐蒙特已證明具備在不同司法管轄區內,以安全、負責且如期方式執行大型複雜專案的能力。

  • With this capability and confidence, we are advancing the Red Chris block cave project, a fully permitted, shovel-ready gold copper development in British Columbia’s Golden Triangle and the next major reinvestment in our business, directly supporting our strategy to lead in gold and grow in copper. With a full funds decision anticipated early next year, Red Chris is positioned to deliver long-term production in one of the industry’s premier mining jurisdictions.

    憑藉這項能力與信心,我們正推進 Red Chris block cave 專案——位於卑詩省黃金三角(Golden Triangle)、已取得完整許可且可立即動工的金銅開發案,也是我們業務的下一項重大再投資,直接支持我們「黃金領先、銅業成長」的策略。隨著預計於明年初做出最終投資決策,Red Chris 有望在業界首屈一指的採礦司法管轄區之一,提供長期產量貢獻。

  • Red Chris is a multi-phase project anchored by an endowment that supports 70 years of mine life. It represents a rare combination of scale, quality, and growth, located within a highly prospective porphyry district.

    Red Chris 是一個多階段專案,其資源禀賦支撐 70 年的礦山壽命。它結合了罕見的規模、品質與成長性,且位於高度具前景的斑岩礦化帶(porphyry district)之中。

  • With all our regulatory and consent-based approvals already in place, it benefits from strong partnerships with the Tahltan Nation and support from both provincial and federal governments, demonstrated by the government of Canada’s announcement of CAD500 million of funding for the project, recognizing its importance to Canada’s critical mineral strategy. This established support creates a stable and predictable environment for investment and reinforces our confidence in the long-term opportunity at Red Chris and the broader Golden Triangle.

    由於我們已取得所有監管核准與基於同意的核准(consent-based approvals),該專案受惠於與 Tahltan Nation 的強健夥伴關係,以及省級與聯邦政府的支持;加拿大政府宣布為該專案提供 5 億加幣資金,即為明證,並凸顯其對加拿大關鍵礦物策略的重要性。這些既有支持為投資創造穩定且可預期的環境,並強化我們對 Red Chris 以及更廣泛黃金三角地區長期機會的信心。

  • The Block Cave development will leverage Newmont’s extensive experience developing and operating large-scale block cave mines, supported by an established team with over 150 years of combined block cave experience. It’s important to note that while the initial phase, Macro Block 1, 2, represents less than 20% of potential mine life at Red Chris, approximately 40% of the planned investment in processing facilities, material handling systems, and other key infrastructure is expected to support future expansions.

    Block Cave 開發將運用紐蒙特在大型 block cave 礦山開發與營運方面的豐富經驗,並由一支累計超過 150 年 block cave 經驗的成熟團隊提供支援。需要特別指出的是,雖然初期階段 Macro Block 1、2 的規模不到 Red Chris 潛在礦山壽命的 20%,但預計在處理設施、物料搬運系統及其他關鍵基礎設施上的規劃投資中,約有 40% 將可支援未來擴建。

  • This foundation positions Red Chris to evolve into an increasingly meaningful contributor to Newmont’s future production profile and a significant driver of shareholder value over time. We continue to refine and validate the underlying assumptions and execution plan with a clear focus on ensuring the Red Chris Block Cave project meets our investment criteria and project execution standards.

    這項基礎使 Red Chris 得以逐步成為紐蒙特未來產量結構中愈發重要的貢獻者,並在時間推移下成為推動股東價值的重要動能。我們持續精煉並驗證基礎假設與執行計畫,明確聚焦於確保 Red Chris Block Cave 專案符合我們的投資標準與專案執行規範。

  • While final review and governance work remain underway, I’m encouraged by the project economics and the value this operation can create for Newmont. We have completed a rigorous feasibility study and advanced engineering beyond 60%, resulting in an optimized mine design that improves metal recovery and incorporates geotechnical learnings, execution, and long-term operational experience into our plan.

    雖然最終審查與治理作業仍在進行中,但我對該專案的經濟性以及此營運可為紐蒙特創造的價值感到鼓舞。我們已完成嚴謹的可行性研究,並將工程設計推進至 60% 以上,形成最佳化的礦山設計,以提升金屬回收率,並將岩土工程(geotechnical)學習、執行經驗與長期營運經驗納入我們的計畫之中。

  • Based on results from the feasibility study and subject to Board approval, construction for the project is anticipated to ramp up in 2027, with commercial production targeted for 2033. This builds upon the early works that have already advanced the mine decline, conveyor to surface decline, and ventilation rise boring.

    根據可行性研究結果並在董事會核准的前提下,預期本專案將於2027年加速推進建設,並以2033年達成商業化生產為目標。此係建立在已完成的前期工程基礎之上,相關工程已推進礦山斜坡道、通往地表斜坡道的輸送系統,以及通風豎井鑽掘(raise boring)。

  • The initial development is expected to support a mine life of approximately 13 years, producing approximately 3 million ounces of gold and 850,000 tonnes of copper on a 100% basis over this period. Following ramp-up, we expect Red Chris to produce an estimated 275,000 to 325,000 ounces of gold annually, along with 65,000 to 85,000 tonnes of copper per year, highlighting the quality of the initial cave.

    預期初期開發可支撐約13年的礦山壽命,在此期間以100%基礎計,產出約300萬盎司黃金及85萬噸銅。完成爬坡後,我們預期Red Chris每年可產出約27.5萬至32.5萬盎司黃金,以及每年6.5萬至8.5萬噸銅,凸顯初期崩落採礦區(cave)的高品質。

  • We currently estimate development capital to be between USD4.2 billion and USD4.8 billion, which is equivalent to CAD5.6 billion and CAD6.4 billion on a 100% basis and includes the benefit from the anticipated grant from the Canadian government. This estimate reflects the latest development plan, updated productivity assumptions, current market inputs, and a mature understanding of the infrastructure, development sequence, capital requirements, and operating profile required to successfully deliver the project.

    我們目前估計開發資本支出介於42億至48億美元之間;以100%基礎計,相當於56億至64億加幣,並已納入預期可取得加拿大政府補助的效益。此估算反映最新的開發計畫、更新後的生產力假設、目前市場輸入參數,以及對成功交付本專案所需之基礎設施、開發順序、資本需求與營運概況的成熟理解。

  • Supported by a robust technical plan and refined execution strategy, we believe Red Chris is well-positioned to meet our investment criteria. As we move towards a final investment decision, I want to spend a moment to reflect on the principles that will guide that decision.

    在穩健的技術方案與精進的執行策略支持下,我們相信Red Chris具備良好條件以符合我們的投資標準。在我們邁向最終投資決策之際,我想花點時間回顧將引導該決策的原則。

  • Regardless of the source of growth, whether advancing the next phase of an existing operation, evaluating an organic development project, or assessing any potential inorganic opportunity, every investment must compete for capital and satisfy three core criteria.

    不論成長來源為何——無論是推進既有營運的下一階段、評估有機開發專案,或評估任何潛在的非有機機會——每一項投資都必須競逐資本,並滿足三項核心標準。

  • First, the opportunity must be a strategic fit for Newmont. We prioritize investments that reinforce our position as the world’s leading gold company while supporting organic growth in copper. We look for opportunities that strengthen our presence in attractive mining jurisdictions and leverage our deep technical expertise, capabilities, extensive infrastructure, and established partner relationships.

    第一,該機會必須與Newmont的策略相契合。我們優先投資於能鞏固我們作為全球領先黃金公司的地位,同時支持銅的有機成長的項目。我們尋找能強化我們在具吸引力的礦業司法管轄區之布局,並能運用我們深厚的技術專長、能力、廣泛的基礎設施,以及既有的合作夥伴關係的機會。

  • Secondly, the investment must ensure the quality of the portfolio. We focus on opportunities that support durable production profiles, typically with mine lives of 10 years or more, improve free cash flow generation, increase resilience through the commodity cycles, and strengthen the portfolio’s overall cost competitiveness.

    第二,投資必須確保投資組合的品質。我們聚焦於能支持具持久性的產量曲線(通常礦山壽命達10年以上)、提升自由現金流創造能力、在商品循環中提高韌性,並強化投資組合整體成本競爭力的機會。

  • And finally, the economics must be compelling and supported by a high degree of technical maturity, project execution capability, and a clear development plan. We expect projects to remain competitive across a range of planning assumptions and commodity price environments while generating a double-digit internal rate of return that exceeds the applicable country-specific discount rate.

    最後,經濟性必須具吸引力,並由高度的技術成熟度、專案執行能力與清晰的開發計畫所支撐。我們期望專案在各種規劃假設與商品價格環境下仍具競爭力,同時產生雙位數的內部報酬率(IRR),且高於適用的各國別折現率。

  • The initial phase at Red Chris is an example of this approach in action. It aligns with our strategy, enhances the quality and longevity of our portfolio, and delivers compelling returns while meeting the same rigorous standards we apply to every investment before capital is allocated.

    Red Chris的初期階段就是此一方法落實的例證。它符合我們的策略、提升我們投資組合的品質與存續性,並在符合我們於資本配置前對每一項投資所採用的同等嚴謹標準下,帶來具吸引力的報酬。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Brian for an update on our third-quarter financial performance and outlook for the rest of the year.

    接下來,我將交由Brian說明我們第三季的財務表現,以及今年剩餘期間的展望。

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Natascha, and hello, everyone. Newmont delivered another quarter of robust financial results, supported by stable operational performance, disciplined cost management, and continued execution across our portfolio. We realized an average gold price of $4,317 per ounce, generated $2.8 billion of cash flow from operations after working capital, and delivered $1.9 billion of free cash flow.

    謝謝你,Natascha,各位大家好。Newmont在穩定的營運表現、嚴謹的成本管理,以及持續推進投資組合各項執行工作的支持下,再度交出一季強勁的財務成果。我們實現的平均金價為每盎司4,317美元;在扣除營運資金變動後,營運活動現金流為28億美元,並創造19億美元的自由現金流。

  • Through the first nine months of the year, we have generated $7.3 billion of free cash flow, which is approximately the total amount generated in 2025, and with our strongest production quarter yet to come, reflecting our continued ability to convert strong operational execution into meaningful cash generation and shareholder value. This strong cash flow continues to underpin our capital allocation framework, enabling us to return more than 80% of free cash flow to shareholders year to date while making meaningful reinvestment back into the business and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

    今年前九個月,我們已產生73億美元的自由現金流,約等同於2025年全年的總額;且我們最強的產量季度尚未到來,反映我們持續將強勁的營運執行轉化為具意義的現金創造與股東價值的能力。這股強勁的現金流持續支撐我們的資本配置架構,使我們在今年迄今得以將超過80%的自由現金流回饋給股東,同時對業務進行具規模的再投資並維持強健的資產負債表。

  • For the quarter, we also generated $4 billion of adjusted EBITDA and reported adjusted net income of $2.20 per share. As we noted on our last call, the working capital benefit realized in the second quarter partially unwound during the third quarter, reflecting normal timing-related working capital movements across the business.

    本季我們亦創造40億美元的調整後EBITDA,並報告調整後每股淨利為2.20美元。如同我們在上次電話會議中提到的,第二季所實現的營運資金利益在第三季部分回轉,反映業務中與時點相關的正常營運資金變動。

  • Turning to costs, gold all-in sustaining costs were $1,454 per ounce on a by-product basis. Unit costs improved sequentially from the second quarter, primarily reflecting higher gold and co-product volumes, including 11 million ounces of silver production, stronger realized copper prices, and lower operating costs at certain operations across the portfolio.

    接著談成本,以副產品抵減(by-product)基礎計算的黃金全維持成本(AISC)為每盎司1,454美元。單位成本較第二季呈現季比改善,主要反映黃金與共產品產量增加(包括白銀產量1,100萬盎司)、實現的銅價較強,以及投資組合中部分營運據點的營運成本下降。

  • Turning now to our capital allocation priorities. We continue to apply the capital allocation framework introduced earlier this year consistently, balancing reinvestment in our world-class portfolio, financial flexibility, and the return of excess cash to shareholders. Beginning with sustaining capital, we spent $525 million in the third quarter as we continued to reinvest in the business to support safe production and sustainable free cash flow generation.

    接下來談我們的資本配置優先順序。我們持續一致地採用今年稍早導入的資本配置架構,在對世界級投資組合的再投資、財務彈性,以及將多餘現金回饋股東之間取得平衡。先從維持性資本支出開始,第三季我們支出5.25億美元,持續再投資於業務,以支持安全生產與可持續的自由現金流創造。

  • Turning to our sustainable cash dividend, our framework targets an annual cash dividend of approximately $1.1 billion paid quarterly, and in the third quarter, we declared a dividend of $0.26 per share. We also continue to invest in development capital, spending $354 million to advance the highest return opportunities within our deep organic growth pipeline.

    再來談我們的可持續現金股利。我們的架構目標為每年約11億美元的現金股利,按季發放;第三季我們宣告每股0.26美元的股利。我們也持續投入開發性資本支出,支出3.54億美元,以推進我們深厚的有機成長管線中報酬最高的機會。

  • At the same time, we remain committed to maintaining a flexible and resilient balance sheet, anchored by our net cash target of $1 billion plus or minus $2 billion. This range provides the flexibility to manage through commodity price cycles while continuing to invest in the business and return capital to shareholders.

    同時,我們仍致力於維持具彈性且具韌性的資產負債表,以我們的淨現金目標10億美元上下浮動20億美元為錨。此區間提供彈性,使我們能在商品價格循環中進行管理,同時持續投資於業務並將資本回饋給股東。

  • We ended the quarter with net cash balance of $3.2 billion, which is modestly above the upper end of our target range. It’s important to note that this balance does not yet reflect the anticipated $1.95 billion payment associated with the amended Nevada Gold Mines joint venture agreement, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter.

    本季末我們的淨現金餘額為32億美元,略高於目標區間上緣。需要注意的是,該餘額尚未反映與修訂後的Nevada Gold Mines合資協議相關、預期為19.5億美元的付款;我們預計於第四季完成交割。

  • And finally, once these priorities have been met, excess cash is allocated to ongoing share repurchases. Since our last earnings call, we have repurchased approximately $1.6 billion of shares under the $6 billion share repurchase program authorized by the Board in April. This includes more than $450 million of shares repurchased in October to date, leaving approximately $2.8 billion remaining under the current authorization.

    最後,在滿足上述優先事項後,多餘現金將配置於持續性的庫藏股回購。自上次財報電話會議以來,我們已在董事會於4月核准的60億美元股票回購計畫下,回購約16億美元的股份。其中包括截至目前10月已回購超過4.5億美元的股份,使得在現行核准額度下尚餘約28億美元可用。

  • Our approach to repurchasing shares over time is already having a meaningful impact, and as Natascha mentioned earlier, since we began executing our repurchase programs in February of 2024, we have reduced our share count by more than 115 million shares, or approximately 10% of shares outstanding. And as I mentioned last quarter, based on the repurchases completed to date, the formula under our framework would support a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share at the next annual review while maintaining the same targeted annual cash commitment.

    我們隨時間推進的回購策略已產生具意義的影響;如同Natascha先前提到,自我們於2024年2月開始執行回購計畫以來,我們已將流通股數減少超過1.15億股,約占已發行股份的10%。此外,如同我上季所提到的,依據迄今完成的回購情況,我們架構下的公式將支持在下一次年度檢視時把季度股利提高至每股0.27美元,同時維持相同的年度現金承諾目標。

  • Any increase would remain subject to approval and declaration by the Board as part of its annual review next February, but we continue to execute the program consistently, reflecting our conviction that Newmont shares continue to represent an attractive long-term investment opportunity.

    任何調升仍須在明年2月董事會年度檢視中獲得核准並正式宣告;但我們持續一致地執行該計畫,反映我們堅信Newmont股票仍代表具吸引力的長期投資機會。

  • Turning to guidance. As we look to the remainder of 2026, we remain well on track to achieve our full-year production guidance.

    接著談指引。展望2026年剩餘期間,我們仍穩健朝達成全年產量指引的目標前進。

  • Production is expected to increase in the fourth quarter to 1.4 million ounces, making it our strongest quarter of the year, driven primarily by four of our managed operations: at Tanami, as we begin to access higher-grade stopes; at Cerro Negro with the start of mining at the Vein Zone open pit, as well as continued productivity improvements and recoveries; at Ahafo North, as the operation continues to ramp up to full production rates; and at Lihir, as we begin to access higher-grade ore as planned following the September maintenance shutdown.

    預期第四季產量將增加至140萬盎司,成為我們今年最強勁的一季,主要由我們四個自營礦場帶動:Tanami 隨著我們開始開採品位較高的採場;Cerro Negro 隨著 Vein Zone 露天礦開始採礦,以及生產力提升與回收率改善持續推進;Ahafo North 隨著營運持續爬坡至滿產水準;以及 Lihir 在9月維修停機後,依計畫開始開採品位較高的礦石。

  • I do want to call out that while we continue to expect Lihir to be a strong contributor in the fourth quarter, we are closely monitoring potential water impacts as a result of El Niño conditions, which are forecast to strengthen through November and December before beginning to ease in the first quarter of next year.

    我確實想特別指出,雖然我們仍預期 Lihir 在第四季將是重要貢獻來源,但我們正密切監測聖嬰現象(El Niño)條件可能帶來的水文影響;預報顯示該現象將在11月與12月增強,並在明年第一季開始緩解。

  • We are actively managing the operation with these conditions in mind and working to mitigate with water conservation efforts. Though the timing and severity of weather impacts could influence production and costs during the quarter.

    我們正以這些條件為前提積極管理營運,並透過節水措施來降低影響。然而,天候影響的發生時點與嚴重程度,可能會影響本季的產量與成本。

  • Turning to costs, continued operational execution, disciplined cost management, and stronger realized prices for copper, silver, and other co-products have enabled us to improve our full-year cost outlook and now expect gold all-in sustaining costs of approximately $1,520 per ounce, representing an improvement of approximately 10% relative to the guidance we provided at the beginning of the year.

    談到成本,持續的營運執行、嚴謹的成本管理,以及銅、白銀與其他副產品更強勁的實現價格,使我們得以改善全年成本展望;我們目前預期黃金全維持成本(AISC)約為每盎司1,520美元,較我們年初提供的指引改善約10%。

  • While we continue to expect fourth quarter all-in sustaining costs to be the highest of the year at approximately $1,900 per ounce, our improved full-year outlook reflects the strength of our year-to-date performance and provides increased confidence in our ability to manage costs within our control. The fourth quarter cost profile primarily reflects the planned timing of sustaining capital spend, lower co-product credits as silver production at Peñasquito declines to approximately half of third-quarter levels, and ongoing inflationary pressures, including fuel-related impacts.

    雖然我們仍預期第四季全維持成本將為全年最高、約每盎司1,900美元,但我們改善後的全年展望反映了年初至今表現的強勁,並提升了我們在可控範圍內管理成本的信心。第四季成本結構主要反映維持性資本支出的計畫性時點、副產品抵減下降(因 Peñasquito 的白銀產量降至約第三季水準的一半),以及持續的通膨壓力(包括燃料相關影響)。

  • With these evolving fuel-related considerations, we have enhanced our oil price sensitivity disclosure, which can be found in the appendix of our presentation. In addition to the approximate $60 million impact from direct fuel consumption, we estimate a further additional approximate $50 million impact to key consumables and inputs for every $10 per barrel change in oil prices, providing a more comprehensive view of the potential cost impacts across our business.

    鑑於這些不斷演變的燃料相關考量,我們強化了油價敏感度的揭露,詳見簡報附錄。除直接燃料消耗約6,000萬美元的影響外,我們估計油價每桶變動10美元,還會對關鍵耗材與投入品額外造成約5,000萬美元影響,從而更全面呈現油價對我們整體業務可能帶來的成本衝擊。

  • Finally, sustaining and development capital are expected to be the highest in the fourth quarter, keeping us on track to achieve our full-year capital guidance expectations.

    最後,預期維持性與開發資本支出在第四季將達全年最高,使我們仍可按計畫達成全年資本支出指引目標。

  • Looking beyond the current year, we expect total portfolio production in 2027 to increase by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage compared with 2026.

    展望今年之後,我們預期2027年整體投資組合產量將較2026年增加低至中個位數百分比。

  • Within our managed portfolio, the principal drivers include higher grade at Lihir and Boddington, supported by planned mine sequencing and the completion of the waste stripping campaign at Boddington this year; additional ounces from Tanami, with the second expansion progressing well toward commercial production; incremental ounces at Cerro Negro through the introduction of ore feed from the Vein Zone open pit; and at Yanacocha, continued operational success is supporting the evaluation of additional low-cost ounces in 2027 and potentially beyond. Together, these contributions provide a clear line of sight to production growth beginning in 2027.

    在我們的自營投資組合中,主要驅動因素包括:Lihir 與 Boddington 的品位提升(受益於既定採礦順序安排,以及今年完成 Boddington 的剝離廢石作業);Tanami 的額外產量(第二期擴建進展順利,正邁向商業化生產);Cerro Negro 透過導入 Vein Zone 露天礦的礦石供料帶來的增量產量;以及 Yanacocha,持續的營運成果正支持我們評估在2027年及可能更長期間取得更多低成本盎司。綜合而言,這些貢獻讓我們對自2027年起的產量成長具備清晰可見度。

  • Shifting to costs, the fourth-quarter profile provides an early indication of several external factors that we continue to monitor and are currently expecting to carry into next year, ultimately impacting our anticipated 2027 cost estimates. Based on current conditions, we anticipate unit costs to trend higher next year, reflecting macroeconomic headwinds and lower co-product credits, primarily from reduced silver production at Peñasquito, where output is expected to be roughly 30% lower than 2026 levels due to planned mine sequencing.

    轉向成本面,第四季的成本輪廓已初步顯示若干外部因素;我們持續監測,並目前預期將延續至明年,最終影響我們對2027年成本的估計。基於目前情勢,我們預期明年單位成本將呈上升趨勢,反映總體經濟逆風與副產品抵減下降,主要來自 Peñasquito 白銀產量降低;由於既定採礦順序安排,該礦產量預期將較2026年水準低約30%。

  • While these factors create a more challenging cost environment, we remain focused on rigorous cost discipline, productivity improvements, and performance excellence across the business, ensuring we continue to actively manage the costs that are within our control.

    儘管這些因素使成本環境更具挑戰,我們仍專注於嚴格的成本紀律、生產力提升,以及全公司範圍的卓越績效,確保我們持續積極管理可控成本。

  • Looking at capital investment for next year, sustaining capital is expected to remain largely in line with 2026 levels as we continue investing in the long-term reliability and performance of our world-class portfolio of operations. We now expect development capital in 2027 to be approximately $500 million higher than 2026, primarily reflecting planned investment in the Red Chris block cave project, subject to Board approval, and continued advancement of the Lihir Nearshore Barrier project.

    就明年的資本投資而言,預期維持性資本支出將大致與2026年水準一致,因我們將持續投資於世界級營運資產組合的長期可靠度與績效。我們目前預期2027年開發資本支出將較2026年高約5億美元,主要反映 Red Chris 崩落採礦(block cave)專案的計畫性投資(仍須董事會核准),以及 Lihir Nearshore Barrier 專案的持續推進。

  • Importantly, as Natascha mentioned, approximately $200 million of the increase in development capital spend in 2027 is expected to be offset by cash flow becoming available as spending on the Yanacocha water treatment plants declines. As the project reaches completion, this benefit is expected to increase to approximately $400 million annually beginning in 2028.

    重要的是,如 Natascha 所提,2027年開發資本支出增加中的約2億美元,預期將由現金流的釋出所抵銷,因 Yanacocha 水處理廠的支出將下降。隨著專案接近完工,預期自2028年起,這項效益將增加至每年約4億美元。

  • Taken together, these preliminary indications reflect a portfolio position for a return to production growth in 2027, supported by continued operating discipline and selective investment in our highest return opportunities.

    綜合來看,這些初步跡象反映出我們的投資組合已具備在2027年重回產量成長的定位,並由持續的營運紀律與對最高報酬機會的選擇性投資所支撐。

  • With that, I’ll turn the call back to Natascha for closing remarks.

    接下來,我把電話交回給 Natascha 作結語。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Brian. In closing, our third-quarter results demonstrate the strength of Newmont’s world-class portfolio and the consistency of execution across our business. We remain firmly on track to achieve our 2026 production, capital, and improved cost guidance, supported by strong operational performance, disciplined cost management, and continued free cash flow generation.

    謝謝你,Brian。總結而言,我們第三季的結果展現了 Newmont 世界級投資組合的實力,以及全公司一致且穩健的執行力。在強勁的營運表現、嚴謹的成本管理與持續的自由現金流創造支持下,我們仍堅定按計畫達成2026年的產量、資本支出與改善後的成本指引。

  • The strength of our portfolio allows us to simultaneously reinvest in the business, maintain a resilient balance sheet, and return significant capital to shareholders through our capital allocation framework, which continues to deliver value through a predictable dividend and ongoing share repurchases.

    我們投資組合的實力,使我們得以同時再投資於業務、維持具韌性的資產負債表,並透過資本配置架構向股東回饋可觀資本;該架構持續透過可預期的股利與持續的庫藏股回購創造價值。

  • Looking ahead, we are entering an exciting period for Newmont with a clear strategy, leading in gold and growing in copper. Supported by our world-class portfolio, deep technical expertise, and proven project delivery capabilities, we are well-positioned to deliver production growth beginning in 2027, generate substantial free cash flow, create additional scale for decades to come, and continue increasing value for shareholders on a per-share basis.

    展望未來,Newmont 正進入一個令人振奮的階段:策略清晰,在黃金領域領先並在銅業務上成長。在世界級投資組合、深厚的技術專長與經驗證的專案交付能力支持下,我們具備良好條件自2027年起實現產量成長、創造可觀自由現金流、在未來數十年擴大規模,並持續以每股為基礎提升股東價值。

  • With that, we look forward to your questions.

    接下來,我們期待各位的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Daniel Major, UBS.

    (接線員指示)Daniel Major,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Daniel Major - Analyst

    Daniel Major - Analyst

  • Congratulations on a good set of numbers and no curve balls from the '27 guidance that I can see. But yeah, I guess the first one, just looking at the Red Chris project and the preliminary details that you've given, can you give -- provide just a little bit more detail on the scope changes that you talked to? That's sort of the first part.

    恭喜你們交出一組不錯的數字,而且就我所見,'27 年指引也沒有出現任何意外。不過我想第一個問題是,關於 Red Chris 專案以及你們提供的初步細節,能否再多提供一些你們提到的範疇(scope)變更的細節?這是第一部分。

  • And then secondly, you talked to this as being the first sort of phase that is the foundation for further expansions. Can you also just provide a little bit more color about what that kind of would entail and the potential timeframe around that?

    第二,你們提到這是第一階段,作為後續擴建的基礎。也能否再多補充一些這可能包含哪些內容,以及大致的時間框架?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Daniel, and some really, really good questions. So I think it’s firstly important to recognize that this project now is for the first time on a technical and commercial level, fully on a right feasibility study level. So as we think about scope changes, it’s important to also think about the technical executability and long-term sustainability of the project.

    謝謝你,Daniel,這些問題真的非常、非常好。我認為首先重要的是要認知到,這個專案現在首次在技術與商業層面上,已完整達到「可行性研究(feasibility study)」的水準。因此在我們思考範疇變更時,也必須同時考量專案在技術上的可執行性與長期可持續性。

  • So the scope changes certainly included our increased and improved understanding of geotechnical realities. It allowed us to make sure that the positioning and the design of the cave, plus the operational infrastructure and materials handling, is appropriately positioned in areas that can be supported in the long term. And that does allow for long-term productivity in high levels of productivity to support the low-cost expectations of this project.

    因此,範疇變更確實包含我們對岩土工程現實的理解提升與改善。這使我們能確保崩落區(cave)的定位與設計,以及營運基礎設施與物料搬運系統,能適當設置在長期可支撐的區域。而這也有助於在長期維持高水準生產力,以支撐該專案對低成本的預期。

  • Secondly, we see increased throughput through the plant that allows us for higher yearly plant throughputs and then associated with the right tailings capacity. So those are the major changes. We have then also made sure that from a project execution point of view, that we reflect current and demonstrated development performance as well as really current rights for that development.

    其次,我們看到選礦廠的處理量提升,使我們能夠提高年度廠房處理量,並且與相應的尾礦庫容量相匹配。以上就是主要變更。此外,從專案執行的角度來看,我們也確保反映目前且已被證實的開發績效,以及該開發真正最新的權利狀況。

  • Then if we look at the future of this endowment, Daniel, on slide 5, you will see that we have clearly marked out the first Macro Block 1 and 2. My apologies, I think it might be slide 6. For [Eddie], slide 5. I thought I had the wrong number here for a minute.

    接著,如果我們看這項資源禀賦的未來,Daniel,在第5張投影片上,你會看到我們已清楚標示出第一個宏區塊1與2。抱歉,我想可能是第6張。對[Eddie]而言,是第5張。我剛才一度以為我把編號弄錯了。

  • I want you to firstly look at both the East and West expansion of the ore body, and you will see that Macro Block 1 and 2 is positioned in a very small portion of what we currently see as our endowment. Our endowment includes everything from our East Ridge to the far west and does not include any exploration potential further to the East and the West as this ore body is still open to the East and the West.

    我希望你先看看礦體向東與向西的擴展,你會看到宏區塊1與2只位於我們目前所見資源禀賦中的很小一部分。我們的資源禀賦涵蓋從東側山脊(East Ridge)一直到最西端的所有範圍,且不包含更往東與更往西的任何勘探潛力,因為這個礦體在東、西兩側仍然是開放的。

  • So the 70 years that we are talking about is within the context of what you can see on the slide. The next expansion would be logical to go into MB3 and then East Ridge after that. Those project development evaluations is underway as we speak. And as we bring them to a more mature phase, we will certainly be able to share more information.

    因此,我們所談的70年是在你於投影片上所見範圍的脈絡之下。下一步的擴張,合理的方向會是進入MB3,之後再到East Ridge。這些專案開發評估目前正在進行中。當我們把它們推進到更成熟的階段時,我們當然能分享更多資訊。

  • I might just add and remind you that 40% of the capital that we’re spending now will be capital that would be appropriate for further extensions into Macro Block 3 and East Ridge.

    我補充提醒一下,我們目前支出的資本中有40%,將是適用於未來延伸至宏區塊3與East Ridge的資本。

  • Daniel Major - Analyst

    Daniel Major - Analyst

  • Okay. So just to clarify on that, when you say 40% of capital, do you mean mine development capital rather than surface infrastructure?

    好的。為了釐清一下,當你說40%的資本時,你指的是礦山開發資本,而不是地表基礎設施嗎?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, it would be between surface infrastructure and underground materials handling infrastructure that would be reused for future expansions.

    不是,這會涵蓋地表基礎設施與地下物料處理基礎設施之間的部分,這些都會在未來擴張中再利用。

  • Daniel Major - Analyst

    Daniel Major - Analyst

  • Okay. That's clear. And second question -- and thanks for the color on the drivers of the sort of production into next year. Could you provide a bit more color on the expectations around Yanacocha. Obviously, production is coming off, but it appears that's continued to contribute more than you previously guided. Can you give us some -- just an update on how you see that both 2027 and beyond?

    好的。很清楚。第二個問題——也謝謝你對明年產量驅動因素的補充說明。你能否再多談一些對Yanacocha的預期?顯然產量在下滑,但看起來它持續貢獻的程度高於你們先前的指引。你能否給我們一些——就你們對2027年以及更長期的看法,做個更新?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Daniel, first, I think it's important to bring us back to the asset reviews that we have done that allowed us to stand back and unconstrained look at every asset. Yanacocha has benefited from that process in that as we had an unconstrained view on the potential of the asset, definitely supported by a change in in gold price assumptions and then aligning with our near-term-to-brownfields opportunities looking for low capital near-term projects that can increase our production.

    Daniel,首先我認為重要的是回到我們所做的資產檢視,這讓我們能夠退一步、在不受限制的情況下審視每一項資產。Yanacocha從這個流程中受益;當我們以不受限制的角度看待該資產的潛力時,這一點也確實受到金價假設變動的支持,並且與我們近期至棕地(brownfields)的機會相一致——尋找低資本、近期可落地、能提升產量的專案。

  • Also important, we always look at natural constraints in the value or in the system. So typically looking at [siding] dams and process capacity in this case, it would be heap leach capacity. So really optimizing what we have in terms of heap leach capacity, no material capital investment, opened up additional opportunities in the open pit that we will be exploring to extend the life of that asset.

    同樣重要的是,我們一向會檢視價值或系統中的自然限制。因此通常會看像是(尾礦)壩與處理能力;在這個案例中,會是堆浸(heap leach)能力。所以,真正去最佳化我們現有的堆浸能力、不需要實質資本投資,就開啟了露天礦更多的機會;我們將探索這些機會以延長該資產的壽命。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Fahad Tariq, Jefferies.

    Fahad Tariq,Jefferies。

  • Fahad Tariq - Analyst

    Fahad Tariq - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a little bit more about the indirect impact of the oil prices -- and thanks for providing that sensitivity. Can you just clarify whether that includes any impact on labor cost inflation?

    我想再多問一些油價的間接影響——也謝謝你提供那個敏感度分析。你能否釐清一下,這是否包含對勞動成本通膨的任何影響?

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Fahad. No, it does not. The primary impact associated with the indirect impacts that we've incorporated in that $50 million is associated with chemicals, explosives, grinding media, fixed plant, a bit of the contracted services in terms of how those dynamics flow through contracted services. But in terms of the primary employee base, that's not included as part of the labor assumption.

    是的,Fahad。不,沒有包含。我們在那5,000萬美元中納入的間接影響,主要與化學品、炸藥、研磨介質、固定式廠房,以及部分承包服務有關——也就是這些動態如何傳導到承包服務成本。但就主要員工人力而言,這不包含在勞動假設之中。

  • Fahad Tariq - Analyst

    Fahad Tariq - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just my follow-up question, what are you seeing in terms of labor cost inflation? And if you can maybe speak to -- we've heard about labor market tightness, particularly in Nevada and Western Australia, maybe just comment on what you're seeing there in terms of availability?

    好的。那我的追問是,你們看到的勞動成本通膨情況如何?另外,如果可以也請談談——我們聽到勞動市場偏緊,特別是在內華達州與西澳洲;能否評論一下你們在那邊看到的人力供給可得性?

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I mean, I think in terms of labor cost assumption, we are looking at a general escalation across the organization that will exceed our 2026 assumption, which was about 3%. So I think that that's probably a good place to start grounding in terms of just general costs, in terms of inflationary pressures.

    我的意思是,就勞動成本假設而言,我們看到全組織的整體調升幅度將高於我們對2026年的假設(約3%)。所以我認為,從一般成本、通膨壓力的角度來看,這是個不錯的起點作為基準。

  • And I think a lot of us are all monitoring the general cost environment. And I think a recognition and showing the indirect impacts of oil is a bit of a recognition that we are seeing a bit more of that stickiness associated with diesel prices, and not just the oil price, but also the crack spread in terms of how that's impacting diesel and how that's flowing through the inflationary dynamic across the economy.

    我想我們很多人都在監測整體成本環境。而我認為,揭露油價的間接影響,也某種程度反映出我們看到與柴油價格相關的黏著性更強——不只是油價本身,還包括裂解價差(crack spread)如何影響柴油價格,以及這如何在整體經濟中傳導到通膨動態。

  • I think also with regards to costs, there are other dynamics that we're monitoring as it relates to the Australian dollar and the continued royalty sensitivity is driven by gold price. But in terms of labor costs itself, I think that the indicator right now would be that more general inflationary environment, and we're continuing to monitor it.

    我想在成本方面,我們也在監測其他動態,例如澳幣匯率;而持續的權利金敏感度則是由金價所驅動。但就勞動成本本身而言,我認為目前的指標會是更廣泛的通膨環境,而我們會持續監測。

  • Natascha, I don't know anything additionally you might add in terms of availability of labor across the business?

    Natascha,我不確定你是否還能補充一些關於整個業務的人力可得性?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Brian. Fahad, generally, we know that the industry is always looking for technical capabilities. So technical capability is certainly the first area that we are always very careful around talent management and attracting and retention of good technical capability.

    謝謝,Brian。Fahad,一般而言,我們知道產業一直在尋找技術能力。因此,技術能力當然是我們在人才管理、吸引與留任優秀技術人才方面,始終非常謹慎的第一個領域。

  • If I look at across our business, our labor turnover is within good control, and we don't by and large see any major labor shortages.

    如果我看我們整體業務,我們的人員流動率控制得很好,整體而言也沒有看到任何重大的勞動力短缺。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Richard Garchitorena, Barclays.

    Richard Garchitorena,Barclays。

  • Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

    Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

  • My first question is on the Tanami Q2 completion in the first half of next year now expected. I'm just wondering how you expect that to impact the cash costs through '27 and how should we think about that benefiting '27, '28?

    我的第一個問題是關於Tanami Q2完工時間,現在預期是在明年上半年。我想請問你們預期這會如何影響到2027年前後的現金成本?以及我們應該如何看待這對2027、2028年的效益?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Richard, and a really good question. We're really pleased with the progress that the team has made at completing the shaft and the infrastructure around the shaft. As we go into commercial production next year, we'll start to see opportunities to open up and develop the areas at depth. It will have a material positive impact in our ability to move ore out of underground.

    謝謝你,Richard,這是個很好的問題。我們對團隊在完成豎井以及豎井周邊基礎設施方面的進展感到非常滿意。當我們明年進入商業化生產後,我們將開始看到在深部區域開拓與開發的機會。這將對我們把礦石從地下運出來的能力帶來實質性的正面影響。

  • As we ramp up '27, we could expect to see Tanami going back to previous performance into 2028. I think it's important, we'll definitely start to see an impact immediately, but we'll see the full impact as we ramp that asset back up to expected production.

    當我們在2027年逐步爬坡時,可以預期Tanami在2028年前後回到先前的表現。我認為重要的是,我們肯定會立刻看到影響,但完整的影響會在我們把該資產逐步拉升回到預期產量時才會完全顯現。

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And Richard, I might just add to Natascha's comments as it relates to cash costs. We're not in a position at this point to provide site-level cost guidance, but I would direct you to the general macroeconomic comments that I had both in the prepared remarks as well as the previous response.

    Richard,我也想就現金成本補充一下Natascha的評論。我們目前還無法提供礦區層級的成本指引,但我會請你參考我在事先準備的發言以及前一個回覆中提到的整體總體經濟評論。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think that's important. It would be NATO in macroeconomic, but certainly from a productivity point of view, we'll see that come through. Thanks for that color.

    是的,我認為那很重要。那會是總體經濟層面,但就生產力的角度而言,我們會看到它反映出來。謝謝你補充說明。

  • Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

    Richard Garchitorena - Analyst

  • And then on Red Chris, the CapEx guidance, can you talk about how we should think about that flowing through over the next six years of development? I know you raised your development CapEx expectations for '27 by $500 million. How much is Red Chris a part of that? And then will it be fairly linear as you develop the mine or more lumpy?

    接著談到 Red Chris 的資本支出(CapEx)指引,您能否說明我們應該如何看待未來六年開發期間的資本支出流出節奏?我知道你們把 2027 年的開發資本支出預期上調了 5 億美元。其中 Red Chris 佔了多少?另外,隨著礦山開發,支出會相對線性,還是會比較不均勻、呈現跳躍式?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Richard. I think, firstly, 50% of the expected increase is associated with regress. We certainly have other projects like our Lihir Nearshore Barrier that is also included in that capital increase, which is also really value-accretive project for us.

    謝謝你,Richard。我想首先,預期增幅中有 50% 與回歸(regress)相關。我們當然也有其他專案,例如 Lihir 的 Nearshore Barrier(近岸屏障)專案,也包含在這次資本增加之中,對我們而言同樣是非常具增值性的專案。

  • Until we give more color around the project, assuming FID early next year, I think it's safe for you to assume a linear spend profile. But certainly, we'll be able to give you more color with FID in February.

    在我們就該專案提供更多細節之前,假設明年初做出最終投資決策(FID),我認為你可以先安全地假設支出曲線是線性的。不過,等到 2 月做出 FID 時,我們肯定能提供更多細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tanya Jakusconek, Scotiabank.

    Tanya Jakusconek,豐業銀行(Scotiabank)。

  • Tanya Jakusconek - Analyst

    Tanya Jakusconek - Analyst

  • Natascha, just wanted to come back to Red Chris and trying to reconcile some of the differences of the Newcrest pre-feas and your feasibility study. I am just trying to understand; you said that the processing facility is larger. Can you remind me what size you are thinking and how much larger that was than Newcrest?

    Natascha,我想再回到 Red Chris,嘗試釐清 Newcrest 的預可行性研究(pre-feas)與你們可行性研究之間的一些差異。我只是想了解:你提到處理設施更大。你能提醒我你們考慮的規模是多少,以及相較於 Newcrest 大了多少嗎?

  • Also, when you think about the ore body itself, are you looking at more caves than they originally had anticipated? Just trying to figure out the discrepancy between the two capitals.

    另外,當你們看礦體本身時,你們是否規劃的崩落區(caves)比他們原先預期的更多?我只是想弄清楚兩個資本支出數字之間差異的原因。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Tanya, I will probably touch on a couple of things and thank you for that question because I think that is probably top of mind.

    是的。Tanya,我可能會談到幾點,也謝謝你的問題,因為我想這確實是大家目前最關心的。

  • Firstly, you have pointed out that the numbers that is available was pre-feasibility study, and this is now a fully, a really well-developed full feasibility study with at least 60% of engineering completed. We have, in some of our packages, much higher levels of engineering completed.

    首先,你指出目前可取得的數字是預可行性研究的,而現在這是一份完整、且發展得非常成熟的可行性研究,至少已完成 60% 的工程設計。在我們某些工作包(packages)上,工程完成度甚至更高。

  • I think firstly, important learnings for us is, as I think between 2021, 2022, and where we are today, the first learning was certainly around the geotechnical realities around that ore body. We have been able to improve our understanding of the geotech. That has resulted in quite material changes in underground support, also major cavities, the support for major cavities.

    我想首先,對我們而言的重要學習是:我認為從 2021、2022 到今天,第一個學習點確實是該礦體的岩土工程(geotechnical)現實狀況。我們已能提升對岩土條件的理解。這導致地下支護(underground support)出現相當重大的變更,也包括大型空洞(major cavities)的支護。

  • It allowed us to reorientate the cave. The cave is now larger, and it’s also orientated to prevent any intersection with major fault lines. We have been thoughtful on where we position underground infrastructure, both in terms of tippers and broader materials handling, to ensure that it is in more competent areas in underground, actually ensuring for long-term sustainability of the use of that infrastructure. So if you just look at what to ensure stable infrastructure underground in a cave that’s not impacted by geotechnical structures, that would certainly be the first element.

    這也讓我們得以重新調整崩落區(cave)的方向。現在的崩落區更大,且其方向配置是為了避免與主要斷層線相交。我們也審慎思考地下基礎設施的佈置位置,無論是卸礦點(tippers)或更廣泛的物料處理系統,確保其位於地下更穩固的區域,實際上是為了確保該等基礎設施長期使用的永續性。因此,如果你只看「如何確保崩落採礦地下基礎設施穩定、且不受岩土構造影響」,這肯定是第一個因素。

  • The second element is we will go from 9 million tonnes per year to 15 million tonnes per year in the processing plant. And that was not part of the original study.

    第二個因素是,我們將把選礦廠處理量從每年 900 萬噸提升到每年 1,500 萬噸。而這並不在原先的研究之中。

  • I think the last element that I’ll touch on as three main elements is, we have now got proven development rates as well as cost to ensure that, as we think about our capital estimates, that the financials and cost assumptions are robust as we’ve developed the economics around the project.

    我想第三個主要因素是:我們現在已經有經驗證的開發速率以及相應成本,確保當我們思考資本估算時,隨著我們建立該專案的經濟模型,財務與成本假設是穩健的。

  • Tanya Jakusconek - Analyst

    Tanya Jakusconek - Analyst

  • If I was to think of those three points that you mentioned, so all of the geotech, one, the larger processing facility, and then thirdly on the inflation, I guess I should say inflation, the present-day costing versus, I think it’s about six years old or thereabout. I forget how long ago that was, five, six years. How would you take that? Would you say it’s a 30, or how would you take these three categories and allocate the discrepancy?

    如果我回到你提到的三點:第一是所有岩土工程(geotech)因素;第二是更大的處理設施;第三則是通膨——我想應該說是通膨、以現行成本計價,相較於那份大概六年前左右的研究。我忘了那是多久以前,五、六年左右。你會怎麼看?你會說是 30%…還是你會如何把這三個類別拆分並分配這個差異?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think, Tanya, the level of detail that we can give you at this stage, I’m going to limit it to that, because we continue to -- and as we’ve said in the prepared remarks, we continue to ensure that we understand that we have rigor in our underlying assumptions. We are currently going through our technical review, our financial review, and when we get it through to a FID, we’ll be able to give you more detail.

    我想,Tanya,就我們現階段能提供的細節程度,我會先限於上述內容,因為我們仍在持續——正如我們在事先準備的發言中所說——確保我們對底層假設有充分理解且具備嚴謹性。我們目前正在進行技術審查與財務審查,等到推進到最終投資決策(FID)時,我們就能提供更多細節。

  • Tanya Jakusconek - Analyst

    Tanya Jakusconek - Analyst

  • Okay. And any change in the ore body itself? Like when you looked at it from a caving standpoint, besides, the geotechnicals, or did you extend additional caves beyond what they had?

    好的。那礦體本身有任何變化嗎?例如從崩落採礦(caving)的角度來看,除了岩土工程因素之外,你們是否把崩落區延伸到比他們原先規劃更多的範圍?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I think the caves, the major change is the orientation of Macro Block 1 and then as we continue the work on the extended ore body, we'll continue to develop our thinking there.

    沒有,我認為崩落區方面最大的改變是 Macro Block 1 的方位配置;另外,隨著我們持續對延伸礦體進行工作,我們也會持續完善我們在那方面的想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hugo Nicolaci, Goldman Sachs.

    Hugo Nicolaci,高盛(Goldman Sachs)。

  • Hugo Nicolaci - Analyst

    Hugo Nicolaci - Analyst

  • Congrats on continuing to deliver in a not-so-easy operating environment. Firstly, on Lihir, I just wanted to dig into your comments on the potential for an El Niño impact to water availability at site. In the release, you talk about the potential risks in the fourth quarter this year, but can you just give me more detail around where you see the potential for water availability into next year, just given Lihir is one of the key drivers of production growth and what you are doing to mitigate that risk there?

    恭喜你們在不太容易的營運環境下仍持續交出成果。首先,關於 Lihir,我想深入了解你提到聖嬰現象(El Niño)可能對現場供水可用性造成影響的評論。在新聞稿中,你們談到今年第四季的潛在風險,但鑑於 Lihir 是產量成長的關鍵驅動因素之一,你能否更詳細說明你們如何看待明年供水可用性的潛在情況,以及你們正在採取哪些措施來降低那裡的風險?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, and thank you, and hello, Hugo. A really good question. So firstly, important to note that we have not been impacted yet. It is something that we are closely monitoring due to just our normal water storage areas. I think it’s important to note that the expectation is for El Niño to increase and get harsher towards the end of the year. Probably we will see less of that going into the new year.

    是的,謝謝,也你好,Hugo。這是個非常好的問題。首先要強調的是,我們目前尚未受到影響。由於我們一般的蓄水區狀況,我們正密切監測。我想重要的是,預期聖嬰現象會在年底前加劇、變得更嚴峻。進入新的一年後,這種影響可能會減弱一些。

  • A couple of priorities for us here. Firstly, on the Lihir Island, the communities are reliant on us for water distribution, so that will be, without a doubt, our first priority. Secondly, not all of our operation will be impacted by water shortage if we get there. We will be able to continue to mine and stockpile material that will enable us to continue to build stockpile, do blending, and be ready for a consistent and blended feed into the plant.

    我們這裡有幾個優先事項。第一,在 Lihir 島上,社區仰賴我們進行供水配送,因此這毫無疑問會是我們的第一優先。第二,如果真的出現缺水,並非我們所有營運都會受到影響。我們仍能持續採礦並堆存礦石,讓我們可以持續建立堆場庫存、進行配礦(blending),並為選礦廠提供穩定且混合後的一致性進料做好準備。

  • The team is also looking at if that is the case, that we can bring maintenance forward from next year, to allow us then to run more consistently. So my view on this is normally when you lose volume, when you lose mining, that’s hard to catch up. But as long as mining is done and we get that onto stockpiles, you have a fairly good chance of making up that volume.

    團隊也在評估:如果確實發生這種情況,我們可以把原本明年的維修提前,讓我們之後能更穩定地運轉。所以我對此的看法是:通常當你失去產量、失去採礦量時,那是很難追回來的。但只要採礦能完成並把物料堆到堆場,你就有相當好的機會把那個量補回來。

  • In addition, we have also seen Lihir continuing to improve its throughput through the plant. With the work that the team has been doing on reliability of the plant, we have seen increased reliability and consistency of throughput. So we believe that we will have a level of catch-up capacity through the plant.

    此外,我們也看到 Lihir 持續提升選礦廠的處理量(throughput)。透過團隊在提升選礦廠可靠性方面所做的工作,我們看到可靠性與處理量的一致性都有所提高。因此我們相信,選礦廠端將具備一定程度的追趕產能。

  • I think, Hugo, I probably just want to, on a little bit more of a broader context also, remind you that the benefit of having a portfolio of assets is that not all of the assets are constrained with the same headwinds. And if you consider this year, we had Boddington bushfires, we had Tanami bushfires, we had seismic events at Cadia. We had a number of headwinds, but with the benefit of a global portfolio, we do have opportunity to offset certain headwinds.

    我想,Hugo,我可能也想在更宏觀的脈絡下提醒你,擁有一個資產組合的好處在於,並非所有資產都會受到相同逆風的限制。如果你看今年,我們有 Boddington 的叢林大火、Tanami 的叢林大火、Cadia 的地震事件。我們遇到多項逆風,但憑藉全球資產組合的優勢,我們確實有機會去抵消某些逆風。

  • Hugo Nicolaci - Analyst

    Hugo Nicolaci - Analyst

  • Great. That’s helpful color. Then sort of dovetailing nicely into my second question then, good to see Cadia PC1-2 cave establishments have resumed, but this has maybe added six months or so delay to timing to ramping that up later this decade.

    很好。這些補充說明很有幫助。那麼順勢接到我的第二個問題,很高興看到 Cadia 的 PC1-2 崩落採礦(cave)建立已恢復,但這可能使得本十年後期的爬坡時程延後了大約六個月左右。

  • On your point around that portfolio flexibility, able to just talk to where that flexibility might be to continue to support the group getting back to that 6-million-ounce target and where flexibility at Cadia might be to catch up some of that timing?

    就你提到的投資組合彈性而言,能否談談這種彈性可能體現在哪些地方,以持續支持集團回到 600 萬盎司的目標?以及 Cadia 方面有哪些彈性可以用來追回部分時程?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Hugo, firstly, as we’ve worked through the rehabilitation work, the agreement with the regulator, we have been -- and I think we’ve commented this in previous sessions, that we are working to mitigate any potential impact on the project, and we have actually been able to do that. So as I said in my prepared remarks, PC1-2 is on schedule. We are back with the development and at least up to the point that we get to hydraulic radius. I think that’s just from a PC1-2 point of view and PC2-3, on track as I’ve commented on. So those two projects well in hand.

    所以 Hugo,首先,當我們推進復原工作、並與監管機關達成協議的過程中,我們一直——而且我想我們在先前的場合也提過——在努力降低對專案可能造成的任何影響,而我們實際上也做到了。因此如我在事先準備的發言中所說,PC1-2 仍按計畫進行。我們已恢復開發作業,至少會持續到達到水力半徑(hydraulic radius)那個節點。我想就 PC1-2 而言,以及 PC2-3,我也如先前評論的那樣,進度在軌道上。所以這兩個專案都掌握得很好。

  • If we look a little longer term on how we build back to our 6 million ounces, I think Brian, in his prepared remarks, did touch on Q4. I’ll probably just touch on a little longer dated.

    如果我們把時間拉長一點來看如何回到 600 萬盎司,我想 Brian 在他事先準備的發言中確實提到了第四季。我可能會再補充一些更長期的觀點。

  • Lihir, we are starting to move into high-grade areas as we’ve committed to do. We’ve completed the engineered wall at Phase 24, and we’re also going into a different phase, Phase 19, all with higher grade. Boddington, as we’ve committed to, has completed its stripping and additional pushbacks. So Boddington is in high-grade areas, and Tanami will go into higher-grade areas as well.

    Lihir,我們正如承諾的那樣開始轉入高品位區域。我們已完成第 24 期(Phase 24)的工程化邊坡(engineered wall),同時也將進入另一個階段——第 19 期(Phase 19),這些都具有較高品位。Boddington 方面,如我們承諾的,已完成剝採(stripping)以及額外的推進式擴幫(pushbacks)。因此 Boddington 已進入高品位區域,而 Tanami 也將轉入較高品位區域。

  • On a previous question, I’ve commented on Yanacocha and the additional opportunities that we see at Yanacocha. And lastly, we’ll start to see CNE1, the Cerro Negro expansion project, as well as Vein Zone, the open pit that we opened, and we actually intersected some early low-grade ore already. We’ll see that coming through.

    在先前的問題中,我已評論過 Yanacocha 以及我們在 Yanacocha 看到的額外機會。最後,我們也將開始看到 CNE1(Cerro Negro 擴建專案)的貢獻,以及 Vein Zone——我們已開啟的露天礦坑,而且我們其實已經切到一些早期的低品位礦石。我們會看到這些逐步反映出來。

  • And then on our non-managed partners, both in NGM, PV and Fruta del Norte, there’s an indicated growth that we are assuming their forecasts as well. So I think we are well set up to build back to the 6 million ounces. And then projects like Red Chris will then secure that longer term sustaining of a really robust production profile.

    另外在我們非管理的合作夥伴資產方面,包括 NGM、PV 以及 Fruta del Norte,我們也假設其預測中顯示的成長。所以我認為我們已做好充分準備,能夠回到 600 萬盎司。而像 Red Chris 這樣的專案,則將在更長期確保一個非常強健的產量曲線得以延續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lawson Winder, Bank of America.

    Lawson Winder,美國銀行。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Great quarter. Could I ask about your 2026 year-end reserve and resource planning? Just as you think of all the different moving parts, so $2,000 per ounce gold price assumption used last year, what are you thinking would be an appropriate gold price assumption for year-end 2026? How might the Lihir and Cerro Negro life extensions play into this? And then just overall commentary on whether Newmont anticipates replacing reserves at year-end 2026?

    本季表現很棒。我可以請教你們 2026 年底的儲量與資源規劃嗎?考量到各種不同的變動因素,去年使用的是每盎司 2,000 美元的金價假設,那你們認為 2026 年底採用什麼樣的金價假設較為合適?Lihir 與 Cerro Negro 的礦山壽命延長會如何影響這件事?另外,整體而言,Newmont 是否預期在 2026 年底能夠補回(replace)儲量?

  • Maybe actually one other question to kind of fit in along with this theme is, do you anticipate any impact on Cadia’s reserves as a result? I gather from your prior response that that’s not the case, but I think just specifically with respect to reserves, not resources, do you anticipate any impact?

    也許再補一個同主題的問題:你們是否預期 Cadia 的儲量會因此受到任何影響?我從你們先前的回覆理解應該不會,但我想特別針對「儲量」而非「資源」來問:你們是否預期會有任何影響?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Lawson, hi there. Just that we didn’t clearly hear your third question. You had our assumptions around resources, then the last one was around Cadia reserves. The second and the third question you didn’t come through clear. If you don’t mind repeating those, please.

    Lawson,你好。只是我們沒有清楚聽到你的第三個問題。你提到了我們對資源的假設,最後一個是關於 Cadia 的儲量。第二個和第三個問題聽得不太清楚。如果你不介意,請再重複一次。

  • Lawson Winder - Analyst

    Lawson Winder - Analyst

  • Yeah, and I apologize for that. But the basic gist of the question is, does Newmont ultimately anticipate replacing reserves at year-end 2026? And what are some of the moving parts around that, including gold price and the various operating changes at some of the assets?

    好的,也很抱歉。但問題的核心是:Newmont 最終是否預期在 2026 年底能夠補回儲量?以及圍繞這件事的一些變動因素是什麼,包括金價與部分資產的各項營運變化?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. So Brian will take your reserve process question, and I’ll jump in straight after.

    好的。那麼 Brian 會回答你關於儲量流程的問題,我會在他之後直接補充。

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. Thanks, Lawson. I think as it relates to the pricing considerations for reserves and resources, I think we’ve shared in the past, we tend to be grounded in looking at the three-year trailing average. Obviously, a lot of different dynamics that have gone on over the course of the last three years. So we do take that into consideration as well in terms of the volatility of gold price.

    好的,謝謝你,Lawson。我想就儲量與資源的定價考量而言,我們過去也分享過,我們通常以過去三年的移動平均作為基礎。顯然在過去三年期間發生了許多不同的動態變化。因此我們也會把金價波動性納入考量。

  • But I’d say that that’s a good anchor to note, and so we will anticipate, as a result, a bit of an increase in terms of the reserve and resource numbers that we’ll come out with. But we’re very much from a process perspective in the midst of that important work on our reserve and resource, grounded in price for sure, but there’s obviously a lot of other dynamics associated with progressing the reserve and resource declaration, that we’re in a position to do that and announce that as part of our year-end close process, tied to our business plan and cost outlook.

    但我會說,這是一個很好的錨點,因此我們預期,結果上我們將公布的儲量與資源數字會有一些增加。不過從流程角度來看,我們目前正處於這項重要工作的進行中:儲量與資源的盤點,當然以價格為基礎,但在推進儲量與資源申報(declaration)時也還有許多其他動態因素;我們有能力完成並在年底結帳流程中對外公告,並與我們的商業計畫與成本展望相連結。

  • So that’s a bit of flavor of what I would share with you with regards to kind of where we’re at from a process perspective. But you can anticipate a bit of an increase in gold price.

    以上是我能就流程面向與你分享的一些概況。但你可以預期金價假設會略有上調。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think your follow-on question to that was how does that impact our thinking about Cerro Negro, Vein Zone and Yanacocha. I think important, and Lawson, I think we’ve had a little bit of a conversation about this before. Resource and reserves, we’re also quite conservative, where we think about mine design optimization for productivity of mine design and any near or short-term low-capital opportunities like Vein Zone and Yanacocha.

    我想你接續的問題是:這會如何影響我們對 Cerro Negro、Vein Zone 與 Yanacocha 的看法。我認為很重要的是,Lawson,而且我想我們之前也稍微談過這點:在資源與儲量方面,我們也相當保守;我們會考量礦山設計的最佳化,以提升礦山設計的生產力,以及任何近期或短期、低資本的機會,例如 Vein Zone 與 Yanacocha。

  • We do take a different approach to thinking about gold price, and we do consider near-term gold price. Both of these instances is no real capital allocation, quick ounces. It’s a quick turnaround that should be able to benefit from the higher gold price environment that we are seeing at the moment.

    在思考金價時,我們確實會採取不同的方法,也會考量近期金價。這兩個案例都不需要真正的資本配置,屬於能快速帶來盎司數的機會。它們的週轉很快,應該能夠受益於我們目前看到的較高金價環境。

  • Your question around Cadia. No, it would not impact -- the incidents that we’ve had will not impact our reserve assumptions around Cadia.

    你關於 Cadia 的問題。不會,我們發生的事件不會影響我們對 Cadia 的儲量假設。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel Morgan, Barrenjoey.

    Daniel Morgan,Barrenjoey。

  • Daniel Morgan - Analyst

    Daniel Morgan - Analyst

  • Back to Red Chris. The returns and IRR of double digit given, is that just for the first 13 years? I presume only Macro Block 1, 2. Is there any benefit from future caves included in that, Macro Block 3? Would you leverage the same crusher for Macro Block 3?

    回到 Red Chris。你們給出的兩位數報酬率與 IRR,是只針對前 13 年嗎?我猜應該只涵蓋 Macro Block 1、2。其中是否包含未來崩落採礦的任何效益,例如 Macro Block 3?Macro Block 3 會沿用同一套破碎機(crusher)嗎?

  • I’m just trying to marry up. There’s obviously a lot of life in mine infrastructure which happens in Phase 1, but perhaps you haven’t got the benefits and the returns. Just trying to understand that.

    我只是想把兩者對上。顯然,在第一階段會有大量礦山基礎設施投入,但也許你們尚未把效益與回報納入。我只是想了解這一點。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Daniel, I think that’s a good assumption. As we indicated, about 40% of the capital that we spend is for infrastructure that will benefit future block caves. These economics will assume 100% of the capital, though. That’s part of our standard.

    是的,Daniel,我認為這是個合理的假設。如我們所指出的,我們支出的資本中約有40%用於將使未來區塊崩落(block caves)受益的基礎設施。不過,這些經濟性分析仍會假設納入100%的資本。這是我們的標準作法之一。

  • So this project needs to be standalone, have the right economics on a standalone basis. I think that’s important. So certainly, we’ll be able. Perhaps the way you can think about it is just to look at the benefit that we see at Cadia, where we have similar benefits of using shared infrastructure across future caves, and the economics just continue to improve.

    因此,這個專案必須能夠獨立成立,並在獨立基礎上具備正確的經濟性。我認為這點很重要。所以當然,我們會能夠做到。你可以這樣理解:看看我們在Cadia所看到的效益,我們同樣透過跨未來礦洞共享基礎設施而受益,而其經濟性也持續改善。

  • Daniel Morgan - Analyst

    Daniel Morgan - Analyst

  • Yeah. And just to ask about the funding. I see that you’re looking to plan it. Obviously, you’ve got a very strong balance sheet. What are the rights you have under your JV partner agreement? And might you contemplate investment more than potentially your 70% interest and get a higher proportion of the project?

    好的。再問一下資金籌措。我看到你們正在規劃。顯然你們的資產負債表非常強健。在你們與合資(JV)夥伴的協議下,你們有哪些權利?你們是否會考慮投入超過你們可能的70%權益,從而取得更高比例的專案持份?

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Daniel, we are in discussion with our partner, and they have full visibility of the project capital, and we’re working closely with them as they run it through their relevant processes.

    是的,Daniel,我們正在與合作夥伴討論,他們對專案資本支出有完全的可視性,我們也正與他們密切合作,協助他們依其相關流程推進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Adam Baker, Macquarie.

    Adam Baker,麥格理(Macquarie)。

  • Adam Baker - Analyst

    Adam Baker - Analyst

  • Just during the quarter, you reached an agreement with Barrick to vend Fourmile into the Nevada JV for $1.95 billion. Just wondering how you could give us some color to how these discussions came about, including the timing, why now, and also how you landed on the $1.95 billion, because this optically appeared to be a great deal for you guys.

    在本季期間,你們與Barrick達成協議,將Fourmile以19.5億美元注入內華達合資公司(Nevada JV)。想請問你們能否提供一些背景,說明這些討論是如何開始的,包括時點、為何是現在,以及你們如何定出19.5億美元這個價格,因為從表面上看這對你們而言似乎是一筆很划算的交易。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Adam, the final agreement had a number of different components. As you’ve pointed out, we had Fourmile and Fiberline that was contributed to the joint venture agreement. We had the opportunity to re-look the agreement also from a governance point of view and an opportunity for us as joint venture partners to work closer together to optimize that district.

    Adam,最終協議包含若干不同的組成部分。如你所指出,我們將Fourmile與Fiberline納入合資協議。我們也有機會從治理(governance)的角度重新檢視該協議,並讓我們作為合資夥伴能更緊密合作,以最佳化該礦區(district)。

  • I think I’m personally quite excited about that district because it’s the first time that we can look at that district unencumbered to improve its performance. So I think it’s important to know that a number of different components that came together in the outcome of the $1.95 billion. We’re pleased that we were able to conclude this with a modernized agreement and, I think, a really bright outlook for the asset.

    我個人對那個礦區相當興奮,因為這是我們第一次能在不受掣肘的情況下審視該礦區並提升其表現。因此我認為重要的是要了解:最終19.5億美元的結果,是由多個不同組成部分共同促成的。我們很高興能以一份現代化的協議完成這件事,並且我認為該資產的前景非常光明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Martin Pradier, Veritas Investment Research.

    Martin Pradier,Veritas Investment Research。

  • Martin Pradier - Analyst

    Martin Pradier - Analyst

  • My question is on depreciation. The depreciation year to date has been $1,870 million rounding, so about $630 million per quarter. You are guiding $2,815 million, which implies that roughly you have to get $950 million in the last quarter. Is that realistic? Or should I think that it should be more like the previous quarters?

    我的問題是關於折舊。年初至今的折舊約為18.70億美元,約等於每季6.30億美元。你們的指引是28.15億美元,這意味著最後一季大約要認列9.50億美元。這現實嗎?還是我應該認為會更接近前幾季的水準?

  • And the second question would be on the remediation, where you have in the nine months, $358 million, and the guidance is $385 million, so you have very little left. If you can provide some guidance on those two items, two lines.

    第二個問題是關於修復(remediation),九個月為3.58億美元,而指引是3.85億美元,所以剩下的空間很小。若能就這兩個項目、兩條線提供一些指引就太好了。

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Martin. Thanks for the question. As it relates to the depreciation, the way I would think about that is, we mentioned that we do have our highest production quarter in the fourth quarter, so naturally, there will be a bit more depreciation coming off as we round out the year.

    好的,Martin。謝謝你的問題。就折舊而言,我會這樣看:我們提到第四季是我們產量最高的一季,因此在年末自然會有較多折舊認列。

  • I think as it relates to the guidance that we had at the beginning of the year, there is an element of uncertainty associated with that depreciation estimate. And certainly, there’s an element that we do anticipate that we’ll probably be closer towards the lower end of the range as it relates to that depreciation guidance.

    至於年初所給的指引,折舊估計本身確實帶有一定不確定性。而且我們確實預期,折舊指引可能會更接近區間的下緣。

  • On the remediation and reclamation, if I’m thinking of what you’re referring to as it relates to Yanacocha water treatment plants, we are, as I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, quite pleased in terms of where the water treatments plants are relative to their construction and their readiness. And so some of that’s reflected in the year-to-date spend, and so we’re well on pace as it relates to closing those projects out and getting them compliant in 2027.

    關於修復與復墾(reclamation),如果你指的是Yanacocha水處理廠,我們如同在事先準備的講稿中提到的,對水處理廠的施工進度與就緒狀況感到相當滿意。因此其中一部分已反映在年初至今的支出上;就結案並在2027年達到合規而言,我們進度良好。

  • Martin Pradier - Analyst

    Martin Pradier - Analyst

  • So you’ll be close to that $385 million guidance, or you’ll be well ahead of that? That’s really the core of the question.

    所以你們會接近3.85億美元的指引,還是會大幅超前?這才是問題的核心。

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Okay. Sorry. If it is related to the accretion, this would be tied to a core accretion. What you may be seeing is that there is an element of remediation liability that we booked in the third quarter as it relates to our Midnite Mine operation in the state of Washington. That is a bit of a one-off. It is not related specifically to accretion. Thanks, Martin.

    好的。抱歉。如果你問的是折現回增(accretion),那會與核心的折現回增相關。你可能看到的是:我們在第三季就華盛頓州的Midnite Mine營運,認列了一部分修復負債。那是一次性的項目。它並非特別與折現回增相關。謝謝,Martin。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anita Soni, CIBC World Markets.

    Anita Soni,加拿大帝國商業銀行世界市場(CIBC World Markets)。

  • Anita Soni - Analyst

    Anita Soni - Analyst

  • My apologies if this has been asked before, but I just wanted to understand, the transaction with Barrick for NGM -- sorry, for Fourmile, has that been papered? I understand that it is 30 days from the day that the contract gets written up, and that is when you will have to deliver. Has that happened yet?

    如果之前有人問過先說聲抱歉,但我想了解一下:你們與Barrick就NGM——抱歉,是就Fourmile的交易,文件都已簽妥了嗎?我理解是在合約寫妥後起算30天,你們就必須交割。這已經發生了嗎?

  • Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Brian Tabolt - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No, Anita, that was reflected in the opening remarks. We are on pace to close out the vend-in process, but the payment, you are right, is 30 days after the completion of the vend-in. The vend-in itself has not yet occurred, but we are anticipating it closing in the fourth quarter.

    沒有,Anita,我們在開場致詞中已提到。我們正按進度完成注入(vend-in)流程,但你說得對,款項是在注入完成後30天支付。注入本身尚未發生,但我們預期會在第四季完成交割。

  • Anita Soni - Analyst

    Anita Soni - Analyst

  • Okay. And then one other question, just on Ahafo North. I was just wondering about the ramp-up at Ahafo North in the fourth quarter and going into next year. I think it was a little sluggish this quarter, compared to my expectations. So just wondering how that evolves over the next four or five quarters.

    好的。再問一個問題,關於Ahafo North。我想請問第四季以及進入明年的Ahafo North爬坡(ramp-up)情況。相較於我的預期,本季看起來有點偏慢。所以想了解未來四到五個季度會如何演變。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Anita. Thank you for that question. We do see, as we continue the ramp-up, Ahafo North moving into higher-grade areas into the next quarter. So you will see that continuous increase as we ramp up.

    是的,Anita。謝謝你的提問。我們看到,隨著持續爬坡,Ahafo North在下一季將進入品位更高的區域。因此在爬坡過程中,你會看到持續的增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Newmont's CEO for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話交回給Newmont執行長作結語。

  • Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Natascha Viljoen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you so much, Rebecca. And just to say thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. We always enjoy talking to you and we're excited about the opportunities ahead and we're looking forward to updating you on our progress next quarter.

    非常感謝你,Rebecca。也想跟各位說聲謝謝,感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。我們一向很享受與各位交流,也對未來的機會感到振奮,並期待在下個季度向各位更新我們的進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以斷線。