挪威郵輪 (NCLH) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收成長 5%,單位成本下降 0.5%,獲利優於指引;Net yield 年減 2.6%,高於預期 100bps,Adjusted EBITDA 達 6.66 億美元,超出指引 3400 萬美元,EPS $0.48,優於預期 $0.10。
    • 下修全年指引:2026 全年 net yield 預計落在指引區間低端,約下滑 5%;Q3 net yield 預估下滑 8.9%,Q4 下滑 6.5%;全年 Adjusted EBITDA 預估約 25 億美元,EPS 約 $1.50。
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,但管理層強調已啟動多項轉型與成本優化措施,並持續推進品牌與營運調整。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 領導團隊大幅換血,強化營運與商業能力,半數直屬主管為新任命。
      • Great Stirrup Cay 島嶼升級(Great Tides Waterpark、Lagoon、碼頭等),提升家庭客群吸引力與付費體驗多元性。
      • 導入 baseloading 價格管理策略,提前建立健康預訂曲線,減少臨近出發時的促銷壓力。
      • 持續推動成本優化,近兩季已宣布 2.25 億美元年化節省,並預期未來仍有進一步空間。
    • 風險:
      • 短期需求仍受壓,預訂曲線落後,2026 下半年與 2027 上半年財務表現承壓。
      • 歐洲航線需求疲弱,北美客源受高機票價格與宏觀環境影響,影響 load factor 與 yield。
      • 品牌行銷與需求生成引擎尚在調整初期,成效需時間顯現,2027 前半仍為過渡期。
      • 高槓桿水位,2026 年底淨槓桿預計超過 6x,需依賴自由現金流改善以去槓桿。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q2 Net yield:年減 2.6%,優於預期 100bps
    • Q2 Adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel:$163,年減 0.5%,優於指引
    • Q2 Adjusted EBITDA:6.66 億美元,超出指引 3400 萬美元
    • Q2 Adjusted EPS:$0.48,優於預期 $0.10
    • Q3 預估 load factor:104%;Q4 預估 99%
    • 2026 全年 NCC ex fuel 預估年減 0.25%
    • 2026 預計 capacity days 成長 7%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年營收未明確揭露,Adjusted EBITDA 預估約 25 億美元
    • 2026 全年 net yield 預計下滑約 5%,Q3 下滑 8.9%,Q4 下滑 6.5%
    • 2026 全年 NCC ex fuel 預估年減 0.25%;CapEx 預計 2028 起每年下降近 10 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 2027 年 net yield 展望?何時可見改善?
      A: 2027 上半年(特別是 Q1)仍受執行問題拖累,預期 net yield 負成長,但下半年隨行銷與需求生成改善,將見到逐季回升。
    • Q: 下半年 occupancy 下修 200bps,是否為主動維持價格?2028 是否為正常化元年?
      A: 不是單純為了撐價,主要是需求生成需加強,行銷團隊剛到位,預期 2027 為過渡年,2028 才會較為正常化,且兩大高端品牌營運穩健,問題集中在 NCL。
    • Q: 北美赴歐客群預訂狀況?2027 是否仍受地緣衝擊?
      A: 2027 年預訂逐季改善,雖然今年歐洲線因預訂曲線落後與高機票價促使促銷,但 2027 尚早下定論,目前趨勢正向。
    • Q: Baseloading 價格策略推行,消費者與代理商反應?
      A: 需時間教育市場,但此策略與產業主流一致,預期不需多年,且有配套措施加速推進,對長期營運有利。
    • Q: Great Stirrup Cay 水上樂園與新行銷推廣預期帶來多少效益?
      A: 尚無法量化,行銷活動將於 1-2 週內展開,預期口碑與社群推廣將帶動動能,但目前尚早評估對 2027 財務貢獻。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings second-quarter earnings conference call. My name is Samantha, and I will be your operator. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder to all participants, this conference call is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加挪威郵輪控股(Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings)第二季財報電話會議。我是 Samantha,將擔任本次會議的接線員。(接線員指示) 提醒各位與會者,本次電話會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Sarah Inmon, VP of Investor Relations. Ms. Inmon, please proceed.

    現在我想把電話會議交給主持人——投資人關係副總裁 Sarah Inmon。Inmon 女士,請開始。

  • Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

    Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our second quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm joined today by John Chidsey, CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings; and Mark Kempa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's Investor Relations website. We will be referring to a slide presentation during the call, which can also be found on our website.

    謝謝,各位早安。感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:挪威郵輪控股執行長 John Chidsey,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Mark Kempa。提醒各位,本次電話會議也同步在公司投資人關係網站進行網路直播。我們將在會議中參考一份投影片簡報,亦可於我們網站上取得。

  • Both the conference call and presentation will be available for replay for 30 days following today's call. Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our press release with second quarter 2026 results were issued this morning and is also available on our Investor Relations site.

    本次電話會議與簡報在今日會議結束後 30 天內皆可回放。在開始之前,我想先說明幾點事項。我們已於今早發布 2026 年第二季業績新聞稿,亦可在投資人關係網站上查閱。

  • This call includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement contained in our earnings release.

    本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,涉及風險與不確定性,可能導致實際結果與該等陳述存在重大差異。這些陳述應與我們財報新聞稿中的警示性聲明一併考量。

  • Our comments may also reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation. Unless otherwise noted, all references to 2025 and 2026 net yield and adjusted net cruise cost excluding fuel per capacity day are on a constant currency basis and comparisons are to the same period in the prior year.

    我們的評論也可能提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表及其他相關揭露,載於我們的財報新聞稿與簡報中。除非另有說明,所有對 2025 年與 2026 年淨收益率(net yield)以及每可用運能日(capacity day)不含燃油的調整後淨郵輪成本之引用,均以固定匯率基礎計算,且比較基準為前一年度同期。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

    接下來,我想把電話會議交給 John。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Sarah, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call. I'm joined today by Mark as we discuss our second quarter results. At a high level, we delivered solid second quarter results. Top line grew 5%, driven by increased capacity days, while we lowered unit cost 0.5%, leading to profitability ahead of guidance. At the same time, the team made substantial progress during the quarter to advance our turnaround priorities.

    謝謝 Sarah,也謝謝各位參加本次電話會議。今天我與 Mark 一同出席,與各位討論我們第二季的業績。整體而言,我們交出穩健的第二季成果。營收端成長 5%,主要受可用運能日增加帶動;同時我們將單位成本降低 0.5%,使獲利表現優於財測指引。同時,團隊在本季也在推進我們的轉型優先事項方面取得重大進展。

  • I'm going to talk with you today about actions underway and why I am confident in our pathway to revenue recovery, which combined with our cost control capabilities, will drive meaningful growth and profitability and improve shareholder returns. Successful turnarounds are never linear and take time to demonstrate tangible performance improvements, which translates into financial success.

    今天我將與各位說明目前正在進行的行動,以及為何我對我們的營收復甦路徑充滿信心;該路徑結合我們的成本控管能力,將帶動具意義的成長與獲利,並提升股東報酬。成功的轉型從來不是線性的,也需要時間才能展現具體的營運改善,而這些改善最終會轉化為財務上的成功。

  • Rest assured, our teams are moving with urgency and enhanced accountability across internal functions to continue executing on the initiatives we have underway and are building on our strong foundation. As you can see on slide 4, during my first months as CEO, we have moved swiftly.

    請放心,我們的團隊正以高度急迫感推進,並在各內部職能間強化問責機制,持續執行既定的各項計畫,同時在既有的堅實基礎上再接再厲。如投影片第 4 頁所示,在我擔任執行長的最初幾個月,我們已迅速採取行動。

  • We have made leadership changes across the brands, adding new revenue management and marketing leadership at NCL and building key commercial capabilities, all while remaining focused on improving our booking curves and delivering on critical initiatives such as Great Tides Waterpark on Great Stirrup Cay on time.

    我們在各品牌層面進行了領導團隊調整,於 NCL 增聘新的收益管理與行銷領導人並建立關鍵商業能力;同時仍專注於改善我們的訂位曲線,並如期推進關鍵計畫,例如在 Great Stirrup Cay 的 Great Tides Waterpark 準時完工。

  • At the same time, we have not let up on cost discipline and organizational efficiency. Mark will provide more detail later in the call, but during the quarter, we identified an additional $100 million of annualized savings and cash benefits. Combined with the $125 million of annualized run-rate savings we announced last quarter, this brings the actions announced over the past 2 quarters to approximately $225 million of annualized savings and cash benefits.

    同時,我們在成本紀律與組織效率方面也毫不鬆懈。Mark 稍後會在會議中提供更多細節,但在本季,我們額外辨識出每年約 1 億美元的年化節省與現金效益。加上我們上季宣布的每年約 1.25 億美元年化常態化節省(run-rate savings),使得過去兩季所宣布的行動合計約可帶來 2.25 億美元的年化節省與現金效益。

  • Importantly, we are actioning these initiatives as demand for cruise and the long-term fundamentals for the industry remain strong as consumers are prioritizing travel and experiences. We have strong brands, attractive assets, and a product that continues to resonate with guests, but those advantages only matter if we execute with greater discipline and translate them into better financial performance.

    重要的是,我們是在郵輪需求以及產業長期基本面仍然強勁的背景下推動這些計畫,因為消費者正優先安排旅遊與體驗。我們擁有強勢品牌、具吸引力的資產,以及持續獲得旅客共鳴的產品;但唯有以更高的紀律執行,並將這些優勢轉化為更佳的財務表現,這些優勢才有意義。

  • Turning to slide 5. Our approach and priorities are consistent with what we outlined last quarter: build the team, culture, and capabilities required to execute, sharpen brand positioning and marketing effectiveness, rebuild demand and improve our booked position, and optimize pricing and yield through that strengthened demand base.

    接著看投影片第 5 頁。我們的方法與優先事項與上季所概述的一致:建立能夠落實執行所需的團隊、文化與能力;強化品牌定位與行銷效能;重建需求並改善我們的已訂位狀況;並在更強的需求基礎上,透過最佳化定價與收益率來提升表現。

  • This is the path to enhance our fundamental business model and operations to position NCLH for success. Among the top of our priorities list has been ensuring we have the right leaders, talent, and operating discipline in place to guide NCLH forward. This is foundational because the opportunity in front of us is not about strategy, as we have discussed previously, it is about changing how we operate. We recognize the need to work with a true one-team mindset across functions internally.

    這就是強化我們核心商業模式與營運、讓 NCLH 站上成功軌道的路徑。我們優先事項清單中最重要的一項,是確保具備正確的領導者、人才與營運紀律,以引領 NCLH 向前。這是根本,因為我們面前的機會並非策略問題——如我們先前所討論——而是如何改變我們的營運方式。我們也認知到,內部各職能需要以真正「一個團隊」的心態協作。

  • During the quarter, we made meaningful progress by welcoming our new Chief People Officer, Heather Jacobs. Heather brings more than 25 years of global people and cultural leadership experience across travel and hospitality. We strengthened commercial leadership at the Norwegian brand with the appointment of Lee Applbaum as Chief Marketing Officer. Lee brings more than 25 years of experience building and transforming global consumer brands, including Patrón, Bacardi, and Wheels Up.

    本季我們取得重要進展,迎來新任人力長(Chief People Officer)Heather Jacobs。Heather 在旅遊與餐旅領域擁有超過 25 年的全球人力與文化領導經驗。我們也透過任命 Lee Applbaum 為挪威品牌的行銷長(Chief Marketing Officer),強化商業領導團隊。Lee 擁有超過 25 年打造與轉型全球消費品牌的經驗,曾任職於 Patrón、Bacardi 與 Wheels Up 等品牌。

  • Additionally, we have continued to build out the teams in other critical areas, including NCL revenue management, digital commerce, casino, and itinerary planning. These appointments build on the leadership updates we have made over the past year across other key functions such as technology and strategy in addition to changes made at the brand level. In total, half of my direct reports are new in the role over the last year, and we have substantially rebuilt and strengthened the Norwegian brand leadership team.

    此外,我們也持續在其他關鍵領域擴充團隊,包括 NCL 的收益管理、數位商務、賭場與航線規劃。這些任命延續了我們過去一年在其他關鍵職能(如科技與策略)以及品牌層級所進行的領導團隊更新。整體而言,在過去一年中,我的直屬主管有一半是新任;我們也大幅重建並強化了挪威品牌的領導團隊。

  • Having this experienced team in place is essential to implementing meaningful operational changes. With the team now in place, our next step is to build our operating rhythm and culture and translate that collective experience into better execution and ultimately, better results.

    擁有這支經驗豐富的團隊,是推動具意義的營運變革之關鍵。在團隊到位後,我們下一步是建立我們的營運節奏與文化,並將這些集體經驗轉化為更佳的執行力,最終帶來更好的成果。

  • I'll now turn to our plans to sharpen our brand positioning, particularly with respect to NCL's marketing engine. As seen on slide 6, the starting point is important. We believe we have the right product and the right target consumer. We see that in our guest satisfaction scores, repeat rates, and CruiseNext sales, which reinforces that the product and service experience continue to resonate once guests are on board.

    接下來我將談談我們強化品牌定位的計畫,特別是針對 NCL 的行銷引擎。如投影片第 6 頁所示,起點很重要。我們相信我們擁有正確的產品與正確的目標消費者。我們從旅客滿意度分數、回流率以及 CruiseNext 銷售中看到了這一點,這也再次印證:一旦旅客登船,產品與服務體驗仍持續引起共鳴。

  • We have also identified and sized our priority consumer, premium families and seasoned travelers, which represents over 35 million consumers. Additionally, we already have work underway to develop a clear understanding of what motivates them and determine how best to reach them. In parallel, we are inventorying our products and services to define what truly differentiates NCL and mapping those strengths against the needs of our target guests.

    我們也已辨識並量化我們的優先目標客群——高端家庭與資深旅客——其規模超過 3,500 萬名消費者。此外,我們已著手建立對其動機的清晰理解,並判斷以何種方式最能觸及他們。同時,我們也在盤點我們的產品與服務,以界定真正能讓 NCL 脫穎而出的差異化要素,並將這些優勢與目標旅客的需求進行對照。

  • The work thus far gives us confidence in the fit between the NCL offering and our target consumer. We provide a flexible premium vacation experience with something for every member of the family, while still creating shared moments together. The gap has been connecting the right consumer with the strength of our offering through our messaging and media.

    截至目前的工作讓我們對 NCL 產品與目標消費者之間的契合度更具信心。我們提供彈性且高品質的度假體驗,能滿足家庭中每一位成員,同時仍能創造共享的相聚時刻。差距在於:透過我們的訊息傳遞與媒體投放,將正確的消費者與我們產品的強項有效連結起來。

  • We have the right product and are focused on the right consumer. Now we are focused on effectively reaching that audience through the most impactful channels. Great Stirrup Cay is a clear example of this, and you can see that Great Tides Waterpark is coming together on slide 7. Great Stirrup Cay has long been one of our highest-rated destinations.

    我們擁有正確的產品,並且聚焦於正確的消費者。現在我們專注於透過最具影響力的渠道,有效觸及該受眾。大斯特拉普礁島(Great Stirrup Cay)就是一個明確的例子,您也可以在第 7 張投影片看到「Great Tides 水上樂園」正逐步成形。大斯特拉普礁島長期以來一直是我們評分最高的目的地之一。

  • But historically, the island did not fully deliver the breadth of the experience that premium families are looking for. While we had elevated experiences like Silver Cove and our private villas, we also had an opportunity to create more for families to enjoy together. We are addressing that opportunity with Great Tides Waterpark, which is preparing for a preview period beginning next week ahead of the official grand opening on September 4.

    但從歷史上看,該島並未充分提供高端家庭所尋求的多元體驗。雖然我們有像 Silver Cove 和私人別墅等升級體驗,但我們也有機會打造更多讓家庭能一起享受的內容。我們正透過 Great Tides 水上樂園來把握這個機會;該水上樂園將於下週開始進入預覽期,並在 9 月 4 日正式盛大開幕之前先行亮相。

  • The nearly 6-acre waterpark will feature 19 water slides anchored by the 170-foot Tidal Tower, an over 800-foot high-energy river, and the industry's first cliffside jumps. These attractions complement the recently opened Great Life Lagoon, a 1.4-acre pool area larger than two Olympic-sized pools combined, as well as existing experiences such as ziplining and Silver Cove.

    這座近 6 英畝的水上樂園將設有 19 條水上滑道,以 170 英尺高的 Tidal Tower 為核心,並配有超過 800 英尺的高能量漂流河道,以及業界首創的懸崖跳水設施。這些設施與近期開放的 Great Life Lagoon 相互補充;Great Life Lagoon 是一個 1.4 英畝的泳池區,面積大於兩座奧運標準泳池的總和,並且也與既有體驗(如高空滑索與 Silver Cove)相得益彰。

  • Combined with the pier, which is also expected to open shortly, the island experience will be more reliable, easier to access, and better aligned with what our target guests want from a premium family vacation. Together, these investments should enhance the island's revenue potential by increasing guest throughput and expanding the range of paid experiences available to guests.

    再加上也預計將於近期啟用的碼頭,整體島上體驗將更可靠、更易抵達,並且更符合我們目標旅客對高端家庭度假的期待。綜合而言,這些投資可望透過提升旅客接待量並擴大可供旅客選擇的付費體驗範圍,進一步提升該島的營收潛力。

  • I was on the island a few weeks ago, and what stood out to me is the breadth of the experience. Teens can enjoy the slides, cliff jumps, and Wandering River at Great Tides Waterpark, while adults have places like Vibe Shore Club, Silver Cove, and our private villas, where they can relax and enjoy the island in a more elevated way. It is exactly the kind of differentiated experience that allows NCL to create memorable vacations for guests across generations.

    我幾週前到過島上,最讓我印象深刻的是體驗的廣度。青少年可以在 Great Tides 水上樂園享受滑道、懸崖跳水以及 Wandering River;而成人則可前往 Vibe Shore Club、Silver Cove 以及我們的私人別墅等地點,以更高端的方式放鬆並享受島嶼。這正是那種具差異化的體驗,讓 NCL 能為跨世代旅客打造難忘的假期。

  • Importantly, we are not waiting for the 2027 wave season to act. We are already changing the way we communicate Great Stirrup Cay and the broader NCL value proposition. In the coming weeks, we will introduce interim creative that more directly speaks to premium families, highlights the breadth of the NCL experience, and includes a clear call to action. The goal is straightforward: communicate more clearly why NCL is different, why that difference matters to our target guests, and why now is the right time to book.

    重要的是,我們不會等到 2027 年的旺季才採取行動。我們已經在改變我們溝通大斯特拉普礁島以及更廣泛 NCL 價值主張的方式。在接下來幾週,我們將推出過渡期的創意素材,更直接對高端家庭溝通,凸顯 NCL 體驗的廣度,並包含明確的行動呼籲。目標很直接:更清楚地傳達 NCL 為何不同、這種差異為何對我們的目標旅客重要,以及為何現在正是預訂的好時機。

  • Improving our brand positioning and rebuilding demand are critical to returning to our optimal booked position. We are also strengthening how we manage that demand through improvements to our team, tools, and processes, as you can see on slide 8. During the quarter, we began making changes to the way we sell cruises at NCL. As we evaluated our prior approach, it became clear that in certain areas, we were holding price too high, too far out, which limited early demand generation and left us more exposed to close-in discounting.

    改善我們的品牌定位並重建需求,是回到最佳預訂狀態的關鍵。我們也正在強化管理需求的方式,透過改善團隊、工具與流程,如您在第 8 張投影片所見。本季度期間,我們開始調整 NCL 的郵輪銷售方式。在評估先前的方法後,我們清楚看到在某些領域,我們在距離出航很久之前就把價格維持得過高,這限制了早期需求的生成,並使我們更容易暴露於臨近出航時的折扣壓力。

  • We are now moving toward a baseloading methodology, which establishes more competitive pricing earlier in the booking curve to build demand sooner and support stronger close-in yields. This is not about discounting the product. It is about managing the full booking curve more effectively, building a healthier booked position earlier, maintaining better price integrity as we move closer to sailing, and being more strategic about our promotional activity.

    我們正轉向「基礎載入(baseloading)」的方法論,也就是在預訂曲線的較早階段建立更具競爭力的定價,以更早累積需求並支撐更強的臨近出航收益率。這並不是在打折產品。而是要更有效地管理完整的預訂曲線,更早建立更健康的預訂狀態,在接近出航時維持更好的價格完整性,並在促銷活動上更具策略性。

  • As part of this shift, we have taken pricing initiatives on select sailings in 2027 and open 2028 sailings. The greatest opportunity is on sailings further out in the booking window, particularly later in 2027, where we have more time to shape the curve. For new 2028 inventory and beyond, all NCL sailings will be managed using this methodology from the outset.

    作為這項轉變的一部分,我們已針對 2027 年部分航次以及已開賣的 2028 年航次採取定價措施。最大的機會在於預訂窗口更遠期的航次,特別是 2027 年較後段,因為我們有更多時間塑造預訂曲線。對於 2028 年新增庫存及其後的航次,所有 NCL 航次將從一開始就以此方法論進行管理。

  • Taking a step back, we are focused on managing inventory and price in a more disciplined way, maximizing yield over the full booking cycle, and reducing our exposure to close-in demand volatility, particularly in periods of external disruption like the one we are navigating today. With many of these operating changes already in motion, we are moving swiftly to ensure the company is better positioned to capture the revenue opportunity we know exists across our brands.

    退一步來看,我們專注於以更嚴謹的方式管理庫存與價格,在整個預訂週期中最大化收益率,並降低我們對臨近出航需求波動的曝險,尤其是在像我們目前所面臨這類外部干擾期間。隨著其中許多營運變革已在推進中,我們正迅速行動,確保公司能更好地把握我們知道在各品牌中存在的營收機會。

  • It is important to remember that we are still early in this process, however, and we expect the financial benefits of the actions we are taking today to build over time. I have spent significant time discussing the NCL brand, but I also want to address the work underway across our luxury portfolio, as shown on slide 9. The work here is focused on three areas: sharpening brand positioning, elevating the product and guest experience, and strengthening commercial performance over time.

    不過,重要的是要記住,我們仍處於這個流程的早期階段,我們預期今天所採取行動帶來的財務效益將隨時間逐步累積。我花了相當多時間討論 NCL 品牌,但我也想談談我們在奢華產品組合上的工作進展,如第 9 張投影片所示。這裡的工作聚焦於三個面向:精準化品牌定位、提升產品與旅客體驗,以及隨時間強化商業表現。

  • At Oceania Cruises, our focus is on aligning the fleet more closely with the brand's luxury positioning. That is why we are reimagining Oceania Nautica to Oceania Aurelia, creating a more intimate suite-forward ship designed for fewer guests with enhanced service levels. Today, we are also announcing that we have entered into a binding memorandum of agreement to sell Oceania Sirena.

    在大洋郵輪(Oceania Cruises),我們的重點是讓船隊更貼近品牌的奢華定位。因此,我們將重新構想 Oceania Nautica 並更名為 Oceania Aurelia,打造一艘更私密、以套房為主的船舶,為較少的旅客而設計,並提供更高水準的服務。今天,我們也宣布已簽訂具約束力的協議備忘錄,以出售 Oceania Sirena。

  • The transaction includes a leaseback arrangement that will allow us to continue operating the vessel until the ship is transferred in spring 2028. This is a deliberate portfolio action to move the Oceania fleet toward a product offering that better supports the brand's positioning and long-term return profile.

    該交易包含售後回租安排,使我們能在船舶於 2028 年春季移交前持續營運該船。這是一項審慎的產品組合調整行動,旨在推動大洋郵輪船隊朝向更能支撐品牌定位與長期回報特性的產品供給。

  • It also represents another step toward improving Oceania's product-market fit and simplifying the portfolio to more fully reflect the luxury experience our guests expect. At Regent, we are taking similar action to further strengthen the brand's position in the ultra-luxury market. Today, we are announcing a new suite category on the Seven Seas Explorer Class ships, where we will reimagine and expand our entry-level suites on these vessels.

    這也代表我們在改善大洋郵輪的產品—市場契合度,以及簡化產品組合、使其更完整反映旅客所期待的奢華體驗方面,又向前邁進一步。在麗晶(Regent),我們也採取類似行動,以進一步強化品牌在超奢華市場的地位。今天,我們宣布在 Seven Seas Explorer 級船舶上推出新的套房類別,我們將重新構想並擴大這些船舶的入門級套房。

  • As a result, Regent will offer the largest entry-level suites in the luxury cruise industry while also improving two important luxury metrics: space ratios and guest-to-crew ratios. Taken together, these actions are about making the products match the positioning, creating clear differentiation for our guests, and improving the financial performance of our luxury portfolio over time.

    因此,麗晶將提供奢華郵輪產業中最大的入門級套房,同時也改善兩項重要的奢華指標:空間比率與旅客對船員比率。綜合而言,這些行動旨在讓產品與定位相匹配,為旅客創造清晰的差異化,並隨時間提升我們奢華產品組合的財務表現。

  • We've learned a great deal over the two quarters and made meaningful progress executing against our strategic priorities. While the financial benefits will take time to build, we are confident that the actions we are taking will support stronger performance over time.

    在這兩個季度中,我們學到了很多,並在執行我們的策略優先事項方面取得了實質進展。雖然財務效益需要時間累積,但我們有信心,我們正在採取的行動將隨時間支撐更強勁的表現。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Mark.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Mark。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with our second quarter results on slide 10, which were ahead of our expectations. Net yield in the second quarter was down 2.6%, which is 100 basis points above our initial expectations. Adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel of $163 was better than guidance, declining 50 basis points, driven by strong cost controls, which ultimately drove adjusted EBITDA of $666 million, exceeding our guidance by $34 million.

    謝謝你,John,各位早安。我將從第 10 張投影片的第二季業績開始,結果優於我們的預期。第二季淨收益率(net yield)下降 2.6%,比我們最初的預期高出 100 個基點。扣除燃油後的調整後淨郵輪成本(Adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel)為 163 美元,優於指引,下降 50 個基點,主要受惠於強勁的成本控管;最終帶動調整後 EBITDA 達 6.66 億美元,較我們指引高出 3,400 萬美元。

  • Lastly, adjusted net income for the quarter benefited from several below-the-line items and was $222 million with adjusted EPS of $0.48, $0.10 better than our guidance.

    最後,本季度調整後淨利受惠於數項損益表下方項目(below-the-line items),達 2.22 億美元;調整後每股盈餘(adjusted EPS)為 0.48 美元,比我們的指引高出 0.10 美元。

  • Turning to slide 11. You can see our third quarter and full year guidance. Our outlook continues to reflect a challenging backdrop as we are in the early stages of the turnaround and continue to build our commercial engine, especially on the Norwegian brand. Starting with full year net yield, we now expect to be at the low end of our guidance range with net yield declining approximately 5%.

    接著看第11頁投影片。您可以看到我們對第三季與全年之指引。由於我們仍處於轉型初期,並持續打造商業引擎,尤其是在 Norwegian 品牌上,因此我們的展望仍反映出具挑戰性的外部環境。先從全年淨收益率(net yield)來看,我們目前預期將落在指引區間的低端,淨收益率約下滑 5%。

  • This reflects the softer demand environment I just mentioned as well as the fact that many of the changes we are making to drive revenue higher, particularly on marketing and revenue management, will take time to translate into financial results. In the near term, the back half of the year remains pressured.

    這反映了我剛提到的較疲弱需求環境,也反映出我們為推動營收提升所進行的多項變革(特別是在行銷與收益管理方面)需要時間才能轉化為財務成果。短期內,下半年仍面臨壓力。

  • The marketing and demand generation challenges John described have left us below our optimal booked position. The changes now underway, including new creative and media plans, are only beginning to roll out and have not yet had time to materially influence booking behavior. And given the proximity of many of these sailings, there is limited runway for those actions to benefit 2026 results.

    John 所描述的行銷與需求創造挑戰,使我們目前的預訂部位低於最佳水準。目前正在推動的變革(包括新的創意與媒體計畫)才剛開始推出,尚未有足夠時間對預訂行為產生實質影響。此外,鑑於其中許多航次的出發時間已相當接近,這些行動能為 2026 年業績帶來助益的時間窗口有限。

  • Looking at net yields in the third quarter, we expect a decline of approximately 8.9% with load factor of 104%. This reflects demand pressure across the portfolio with the most pronounced impact on our European sailings, which represent approximately 39% of our deployment in the quarter. This is particularly relevant as approximately two-third of our guests on these sailings are sourced from North America, where elevated airfare and broader macro conditions have put some pressure on demand.

    就第三季的淨收益率而言,我們預期將下滑約 8.9%,載客率(load factor)為 104%。這反映出整體產品組合皆承受需求壓力,其中以歐洲航線影響最為明顯;歐洲航線約占本季部署的 39%。這點尤其重要,因為這些航次約有三分之二的旅客來源為北美;而偏高的機票價格與更廣泛的總體經濟情勢,對需求造成一定壓力。

  • This implies that for the fourth quarter, net yields are expected to decline approximately 6.5% with a load factor of 99%. We are disappointed in this outlook, which is a reflection of our current booked position that is challenged due to the previously mentioned marketing and demand generation issues.

    這意味著第四季淨收益率預期將下滑約 6.5%,載客率為 99%。我們對此展望感到失望;這反映出我們目前的預訂部位受到先前提及的行銷與需求創造問題影響而面臨挑戰。

  • Looking ahead to 2027, and as John noted earlier, our efforts underway on marketing and demand generation will take time to manifest themselves in revenue due to our elongated booking curve. As a result, we expect the first half of 2027 to have continued demand challenges with the most pressure in the first quarter. That said, we are confident that these actions underway are the right ones.

    展望 2027 年,如 John 先前所提,我們在行銷與需求創造方面的各項工作,因預訂曲線較長,將需要時間才能在營收上顯現。因此,我們預期 2027 年上半年仍將持續面臨需求挑戰,其中第一季壓力最大。儘管如此,我們有信心目前推動的這些行動方向正確。

  • As the year progresses and particularly as we move into the second half of 2027, we expect to see improvement as the booking curve better reflects the changes we are making across marketing, demand generation, and revenue management. Moving to cost.

    隨著年度推進,特別是進入 2027 年下半年,我們預期將看到改善,因為預訂曲線將更能反映我們在行銷、需求創造與收益管理方面所做的調整。接著談成本。

  • As John discussed earlier in the prepared remarks, we have continued to make meaningful progress in improving our cost structure and identifying additional cost savings. We now expect our adjusted NCC ex fuel to be down approximately 25 basis points for the full year as we carry some of the additional savings from the second quarter into the full year.

    如 John 在事先準備的講稿中先前所述,我們持續在改善成本結構與辨識額外節省方面取得顯著進展。我們目前預期全年調整後 NCC(不含燃油)(adjusted NCC ex fuel)將下降約 25 個基點,因為我們把第二季新增的部分節省延續到全年。

  • As a result of softer-than-expected top line performance, partially offset by better cost performance, we now expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.5 billion and adjusted EPS of approximately $1.50.

    由於營收表現低於預期,但部分被較佳的成本表現所抵銷,我們目前預期調整後 EBITDA 約為 25 億美元,調整後 EPS 約為 1.50 美元。

  • Moving to slide 12. You can see the cumulative impact of the savings and efficiency actions we have taken across the business. This quarter, we have identified another $100 million of annualized savings and cash benefits related to the consolidation of technology vendors and other employee compensation.

    接著看第12頁投影片。您可以看到我們在全公司推動的節省與效率行動所帶來的累積影響。本季,我們又辨識出另外 1 億美元的年化節省與現金效益,主要與整合科技供應商以及其他員工薪酬相關。

  • Due to the nature of these savings, it is important to note that the vast majority of the benefits relate to capital expenditures, with the remainder tied primarily to salary and benefit efficiencies. These savings build on the $125 million of savings announced last quarter and the approximately $300 million of saving efforts identified from 2024 through 2026, which brings total savings over the past 3 years to more than $500 million.

    由於這些節省的性質,需要特別說明的是:絕大多數效益與資本支出(CapEx)相關,其餘則主要來自薪資與福利效率提升。這些節省是在上季宣布的 1.25 億美元節省,以及 2024 至 2026 年期間辨識出的約 3 億美元節省努力之上再加碼,使得過去三年總節省超過 5 億美元。

  • We expect these cost actions to benefit the business over time, supporting both margin expansion and free cash flow as the top line recovers. It is also important to note that our work here is not done. We continue to see additional savings opportunities across the business, both within SG&A and on the shipboard side, and we expect to build on these efforts going forward.

    我們預期這些成本行動將隨時間推進而持續為業務帶來效益,並在營收回升時同時支持利潤率擴張與自由現金流。同樣重要的是,我們在這方面的工作尚未完成。我們仍持續在全公司看到更多節省機會,包含在 SG&A 以及船上營運端,並預期未來將在這些努力上持續加碼。

  • These savings have been reflected in our unit cost growth, which is detailed on slide 13. We began the year expecting NCC ex growth of approximately 1%. Last quarter, we reduced that outlook to approximately flat, and we are now reducing our guidance again to a year-over-year decline of approximately 25 basis points.

    這些節省已反映在我們的單位成本成長上,詳見第13頁投影片。年初我們預期 NCC(不含燃油)成長約 1%。上季我們將該展望下修至約持平,而現在我們再次下修指引,改為年對年下降約 25 個基點。

  • This marks the third consecutive year of NCC ex fuel growth of 1% or less, underscoring the cost discipline we have embedded across the organization and the continued opportunity we see to operate more efficiently. Importantly, these efficiencies have not come at the expense of the guest experience. As John discussed earlier, guest satisfaction scores have continued to improve over the past several years even as we have maintained discipline on cost performance.

    這是 NCC(不含燃油)成長率連續第三年維持在 1% 或以下,凸顯我們已在組織內嵌入成本紀律,並且仍看到持續提升營運效率的機會。重要的是,這些效率提升並未以犧牲旅客體驗為代價。如 John 先前所述,過去幾年即使我們維持成本表現的紀律,旅客滿意度分數仍持續改善。

  • Moving to slide 14. Another important factor to keep in mind is that our order book should be viewed in the context of our broader fleet optimization strategy. While we have a strong order book with 16 ships on order across our three brands, the signed MOA for the sale of Oceania Sirena means we now expect five ships to leave the fleet over the next three years. This is important, because we are not simply adding capacity for the sake of growth. We are actively managing the portfolio to improve fleet quality, better align capacity and product offering with each brand's positioning, and support stronger returns over time.

    接著看第14頁投影片。另一個需要留意的重要因素是,我們的訂單簿應放在更廣泛的船隊最佳化策略脈絡下來看。雖然我們的訂單簿相當強勁,三個品牌合計有 16 艘新船在訂,但已簽署出售 Oceania Sirena 的 MOA(協議備忘錄)意味著我們目前預期未來三年將有五艘船退出船隊。這點很重要,因為我們並非為了成長而單純增加運能。我們正積極管理產品組合,以提升船隊品質、更好地使運能與產品供給符合各品牌定位,並在時間推進下支持更強的報酬。

  • Turning to slide 15. I want to highlight an important CapEx inflection. Over the last several years, we have invested heavily in our fleet, adding two to three ships annually and driving strong capacity growth, including an expected 7% increase in capacity days in 2026. While we take delivery of two ships in both 2026 and 2027, the cadence moderates meaningfully beginning in 2028 with only one ship scheduled for delivery in each of 2028 and 2029.

    接著看第15頁投影片。我想強調一個重要的資本支出(CapEx)轉折點。過去幾年,我們在船隊上投入大量資本,每年新增兩到三艘船並帶動強勁的運能成長,包括 2026 年預期運能天數增加 7%。雖然我們在 2026 與 2027 年各交付兩艘新船,但自 2028 年起交付節奏將明顯放緩,2028 與 2029 年各僅預計交付一艘。

  • As a result, our capacity growth will moderate meaningfully to a 2.5% CAGR from 2026 to 2029, and we expect gross newbuild and growth CapEx to decline by nearly $1 billion annually, materially improving free cash flow generation. This is especially important as our revised adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2026 increased our year-end net leverage expectation, and we now expect to end the year above 6x. Reducing net leverage remains a top priority.

    因此,我們的運能成長將明顯放緩,2026 至 2029 年的 CAGR 約為 2.5%;我們預期新造船與成長型 CapEx 將每年下降近 10 億美元,將實質改善自由現金流的創造能力。這點尤其重要,因為我們對 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 的修正展望提高了我們對年底淨槓桿的預期,目前預期年底將高於 6 倍。降低淨槓桿仍是首要優先事項。

  • As top line performance improves and our newbuild delivery cadence moderates, we expect stronger free cash flow generation to support debt reduction and meaningful progress on deleveraging over time. As shown on Slide 16, our debt maturity profile remains manageable with no significant debt maturities until 2030.

    隨著營收表現改善以及新造船交付節奏放緩,我們預期更強的自由現金流創造將支持減債,並在時間推進下於去槓桿方面取得顯著進展。如第16頁投影片所示,我們的債務到期結構仍屬可控,直到 2030 年之前沒有重大的債務到期。

  • That gives us added financial flexibility and supports our ability to focus on deleveraging over the next several years. We have continued to simplify our balance sheet. In May, we announced our election of a cash settlement for our two exchangeable senior notes due 2027, which mature early in the year. This election allowed us to reduce our diluted share count by 2 million shares in the quarter and approximately 4 million shares for the full year.

    這為我們帶來額外的財務彈性,並支持我們在未來幾年專注於去槓桿。我們也持續簡化資產負債表。在 5 月,我們宣布選擇以現金結算 2027 年到期的兩筆可交換優先票據(exchangeable senior notes),其於年初到期。此一選擇使我們本季稀釋後股數減少 200 萬股,全年約減少 400 萬股。

  • Overall, the actions we are taking on costs, capital expenditures, and the balance sheet are strengthening the company's financial foundation. While the near-term revenue outlook remains challenging, we are continuing to move with urgency on the areas within our control and remain focused on improving free cash flow and reducing leverage over time.

    整體而言,我們在成本、資本支出以及資產負債表方面所採取的行動,正在強化公司的財務基礎。儘管短期營收展望仍具挑戰,我們仍持續以緊迫感推動我們可控範圍內的事項,並專注於提升自由現金流,並隨時間推進降低槓桿。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to John for closing remarks.

    接下來,我把時間交回給 John 作結語。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Mark. Before we open the call for questions, I want to close with a few thoughts. As you heard today, we are moving to make meaningful change across the business. We have strengthened the leadership team, identified additional savings, began changing how we market and price the NCL product, and taken steps to sharpen the positioning of our luxury brands. I also want to recognize the team.

    謝謝你,Mark。在我們開放提問之前,我想以幾點想法作結。如同各位今天所聽到的,我們正推動在整個業務中帶來具實質意義的改變。我們已強化領導團隊、找出更多節省空間、開始改變我們行銷與定價 NCL 產品的方式,並採取措施更清晰地強化我們奢華品牌的定位。我也想肯定團隊的努力。

  • Across the company, our team members are working incredibly hard to move the business forward while continuing to deliver great vacation experiences for our guests every day. The changes we are making are not small, and they require focus, accountability, and a willingness to operate efficiently and effectively. I appreciate the way the organization is leaning into that call to action.

    在全公司範圍內,我們的團隊成員非常努力推動業務向前,同時每天持續為賓客提供優質的度假體驗。我們正在進行的改變並不小,這需要專注、問責,以及願意以高效率與高效能的方式運作。我很感謝整個組織積極回應這項行動號召。

  • As I touched on before, we also recognize that the actions underway will take time to fully translate into financial results. Rebuilding demand, strengthening the booking curve, improving marketing effectiveness, and embedding a more disciplined revenue management approach will not happen overnight.

    如我先前提到的,我們也認知到,正在推進的各項行動需要時間,才能完全反映在財務成果上。重建需求、強化訂位曲線、提升行銷效能,以及導入更具紀律的收益管理方法,都不可能一蹴可幾。

  • That said, we are confident that we understand where we need to improve and are making the right changes now to position NCLH for long-term success. It is important to note that all the changes we are implementing today are against a backdrop in which the demand for cruise and long-term fundamentals for the industry remain strong.

    儘管如此,我們有信心我們了解需要改善的方向,並且正於此刻做出正確的改變,以使 NCLH 具備長期成功的定位。重要的是要指出,我們今天所推動的所有改變,都是在郵輪需求以及產業長期基本面仍然強勁的背景之下進行。

  • At NCLH, we have strong brands, attractive assets, and a product that continues to resonate with guests. There's more work ahead, but our priorities are clear, and we are moving with greater discipline to translate those advantages into improved financial performance.

    在 NCLH,我們擁有強勢品牌、具吸引力的資產,以及持續與賓客產生共鳴的產品。前方仍有更多工作要做,但我們的優先事項很清楚,我們也正以更高的紀律性推進,將這些優勢轉化為更佳的財務表現。

  • With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

    接下來,麻煩接線員開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

    Lizzie Dove,高盛。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • So Mark or John, I appreciate all the color here and the comments that you gave on 2027. I know it's still early, but could you maybe elaborate on how you're thinking about the setup for 2027 on the net yield side, I guess, particularly in terms of maybe how booked you are for next year, at what price? And with that in mind, when do you think that we can start seeing some of these green shoots on the net yield side of things?

    Mark 或 John,感謝你們提供這麼多細節,以及你們對 2027 年的評論。我知道現在還早,但你們是否可以更詳細說明一下,你們對 2027 年淨收益率(net yield)的布局是怎麼思考的?特別是就你們明年目前的預訂程度、以及以什麼價格預訂而言。在此背景下,你們認為我們何時能開始在淨收益率方面看到一些初步的改善跡象?

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Lizzie, thanks for joining us this morning. So to reiterate what you just said, of course, it is early to be talking about 2027. But as we think about it, when we look at our current company-specific execution issues, we do expect that to weigh more on the first half than the second half of 2027, and really primarily in the first quarter.

    Lizzie,謝謝你今天早上加入我們。重申你剛才所說的,當然,現在談 2027 年還算早。但我們在思考時,從公司目前特定的執行面問題來看,我們預期這些因素對 2027 年上半年的影響會大於下半年,而且主要集中在第一季。

  • We do expect that our first half yields will be negative, again, primarily as a result of the first quarter. But as we think of it going forward, we expect yields to accelerate in the back half of 2027, primarily as a result as we see the benefits from the changes we're making in the business today.

    我們確實預期上半年收益率會是負成長,且同樣主要是第一季所致。但往後看,我們預期 2027 年下半年收益率將加速改善,主要是因為我們將看到今天在業務上所做改變帶來的效益。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And Lizzie, I would just throw in one other thing, just sequentially -- I mean I know the back half of '27 is not as booked, so it's a little hard to tell. But you can sequentially see improvement. Just where we sit today, you can see second quarter better than the first quarter. So it's building in the right direction. So I mean, early days, but it's encouraging.

    Lizzie,我再補充一點,從序列(逐季)來看——我知道 2027 年下半年目前的預訂程度還沒那麼高,所以比較難判斷。但你可以從序列上看到改善。以我們今天所處的位置來看,你可以看到第二季比第一季更好。所以方向是在正確地累積。因此,雖然還在早期,但這是令人鼓舞的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

    Steve Wieczynski,Stifel。

  • Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

  • So I know I'm supposed to ask one question. I'm going to do that, but it's going to have two parts to it. So okay, first of all, if we look at the change in your second half guidance, basically, you've lowered your occupancy levels by just about 200 basis points. So I guess my first question is, is that the decision to essentially start to hold price now moving forward and willing to let that occupancy kind of drift a little bit? You kind of outlined that a little bit on slide 8. Or is there something else in the fourth quarter that's limiting those load factors?

    我知道我應該只問一個問題。我會這麼做,但它會有兩個部分。首先,如果我們看你們對下半年指引的變動,基本上你們把入住率下修了大約 200 個基點。所以我的第一個問題是,這是否代表你們決定從現在開始維持價格、並願意讓入住率稍微下滑?你們在第 8 張投影片有稍微提到。或者第四季是否還有其他因素在限制這些載客率?

  • And then second question, John, it seems like you essentially have your whole team in place or mostly in place at this point. This turnaround is not going to happen overnight. So as Mark kind of just talked about, I'm guessing 2027 is still going to be somewhat of a transitory type year. Is it fair to think as we kind of move more into '28, that should be the first so-called what we would call kind of a normalized year? And based on the recent cost cuts that you guys have identified, at that point, could you see your margin profile start to get back into that low 30s type range?

    第二個問題,John,看起來你們的整個團隊目前已經到位,或大致到位。這次的扭轉不會一夜之間發生。所以如同 Mark 剛才提到的,我猜 2027 年仍會是某種過渡性的一年。那麼,當我們更進入 2028 年時,是否可以合理地認為那將是第一個所謂「正常化」的一年?並且基於你們近期辨識出的成本削減,到那個時點,你們是否可能看到利潤率輪廓開始回到 30% 出頭的區間?

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Let me take a stab at the first, and Mark can give you -- and I'll certainly answer your second. But yes, in terms of what you're seeing in the fourth quarter, a conscious decision on pricing, we try to balance everything here between load factor, pricing, whatever, just to optimize overall net yield and revenue.

    是的。我先嘗試回答第一個問題,Mark 也可以補充——我當然也會回答你的第二個問題。是的,就你在第四季看到的情況而言,在定價上確實是有意識的決策;我們在這裡會在載客率、定價等各方面之間取得平衡,以最佳化整體淨收益率與營收。

  • So it's not a conscious factor one way or the other. I think it's just more a function, as we said in our remarks, that really our demand generation is where we really have to work hard, and that's sort of where our marketing -- that's why we made all the changes in the marketing group at the NCL brand.

    所以這並不是在某一個因素上刻意偏向哪一邊。我認為更主要是我們在談話中所說的:我們真正需要努力的是需求生成,而這也正是我們在 NCL 品牌的行銷團隊做出所有變動的原因。

  • So we've really got to drive the top of the funnel. And I think all the stuff we're doing around revenue management and a new person running casino, new itinerary team, all that will pay dividends, but you got to start writing more names down through the top of the funnel. So that would be my answer to that. Anything you want to add to that piece, Mark?

    所以我們必須真正推動漏斗頂端。我認為我們在收益管理方面所做的一切、由新的人負責賭場、新的航線團隊等等,最終都會帶來回報,但你必須先在漏斗頂端寫下更多名字(帶進更多潛在客戶)。這就是我對此的回答。Mark,你對這部分還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. No, I think that John is right. And I think, Steve, as you think about the margin profile and the margin expansion, you're certainly going to start to see that accelerate towards the back half of '27, especially into 2028, not only from the continued cost efficiencies that we're proving to effectuate. But again, as our demand and marketing engine starts to get rightsized and we start to create that flywheel.

    是的。不,我認為 John 說得對。而且 Steve,當你思考利潤率輪廓與利潤率擴張時,你肯定會看到它在 2027 年下半年開始加速,尤其進入 2028 年;不僅來自我們持續推動並已證明能夠落實的成本效率。同時也來自於我們的需求與行銷引擎開始調整到適當規模,並開始形成那個飛輪效應。

  • Going back to, I think, your first part of your question on the load factor for the back half of the year, yes, load factors are down 200 to 300 basis points. And I think as John said, we're not just looking at price and load in isolation. We're really trying to balance the entire equation for the best overall net revenue and yield. And again, it's primarily a result of we've got to correct our demand-generating engine. We've got to get more names in the top of the funnel.

    回到你第一部分關於今年下半年載客率的問題,是的,載客率下降了 200 到 300 個基點。而且如 John 所說,我們並不是把價格與載客率分開、各自孤立地看。我們真正是在平衡整個方程式,以取得最佳的整體淨營收與收益率。再者,這主要是因為我們必須修正我們的需求生成引擎。我們必須在漏斗頂端帶進更多名字(更多潛在客戶)。

  • As we think ahead, as we said in our prepared remarks, we do have new marketing, new branding campaigns that are about to launch. That and combined with the opening of our island, actually previewing next week, officially opening in early September, again, we're hopeful that, that's going to start to create more awareness and names at the top of the funnel.

    展望未來,正如我們在事先準備的發言中所說,我們確實有新的行銷與全新品牌宣傳活動即將啟動。再加上我們島嶼的開放——其實下週就會先行預覽、並於9月初正式開幕——我們同樣抱持希望,這將開始在漏斗頂端創造更多的認知度與潛在客戶名單。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And then to your sneaky way, Steve, to get a second question in, I'm joking with you. The answer, yes. I mean, so we do have the whole team in place, although I would point out that the Head of Marketing and the Head of Digital, they literally started, I think, July 6. So we've had the team together all of three weeks, basically the whole thing built. So as I said, it will take a little bit of time for us to learn how to work together.

    然後,Steve,你用很「狡猾」的方式想再塞第二個問題進來——我跟你開玩笑的。答案是:是的。我的意思是,我們整個團隊都已到位,不過我要指出的是,行銷主管與數位主管其實是7月6日才到職。所以我們團隊真正一起合作大概才三週,基本上整個架構才剛搭起來。因此如我所說,我們需要一點時間來學習如何一起合作。

  • And again, the culture journey is really just beginning. So I think you're right to say that '27 is a bit of a transitory year. As I said, it's certainly -- we're expecting better things in the back half of '27 than where we see today, because I think a lot of these things will have time to sink in. So yes, I think you would call '28 probably the first normalized year.

    而且,文化轉型之旅其實才剛開始。所以我認為你說得對,'27 會是一個過渡年。如我所說,我們確實預期 '27 下半年會比我們今天看到的狀況更好,因為我認為很多事情需要時間發酵。所以是的,我想你可以把 '28 視為第一個正常化的年度。

  • And then I guess, lastly to point out, I would say, really, again, it's all around Norwegian. If you look at Oceania and Regent, it's not like we have 3 brands that have issues. So I would say we clearly are running two brands well, and that obviously gives me a lot of confidence we can sort out our issues in this brand. So I think it's a fair assessment the way you looked at it.

    最後我想再補充一點:我會說,真的,問題主要都集中在 Norwegian。如果你看 Oceania 和 Regent,並不是我們三個品牌都有問題。所以我會說,我們顯然把另外兩個品牌經營得很好,而這也讓我非常有信心,我們能把這個品牌的問題理順。所以我認為你用那樣的角度來看,是一個合理的評估。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

    Ben Chaiken,瑞穗(Mizuho)。

  • Ben Chaiken - Executive Director

    Ben Chaiken - Executive Director

  • Maybe another one on '27, but specifically as it pertains to the North American to Europe customer. And I guess this is obviously separate from baseloading. I guess what does the pace look like today? Has it recovered since the beginning of the conflict? And then maybe part two, should we expect a drag as those customers are presumably booking '27 at a lower price or at least historically given the conflict?

    也許再問一個關於 '27 的問題,但更具體是針對北美到歐洲的客群。我想這顯然與基礎載入(baseloading)是分開的議題。我想問目前的節奏看起來如何?自衝突爆發以來,是否已經恢復?另外第二部分,我們是否應該預期會有拖累,因為這些客戶很可能以較低的價格在預訂 '27,或至少在衝突背景下,價格相較歷史水準更低?

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I think -- again, as you think about 2027, as John said earlier, we are seeing better trends. We're seeing sequential improvement each quarter in 2027. I think it's very early to determine how North Americans are going to Europe, but I can say that the business on the books, again, in the latter part of '27, continues to improve.

    是的。我想——再一次,當你思考 2027 年時,正如 John 先前所說,我們確實看到更好的趨勢。我們看到 2027 年每一季都有逐季改善。我認為現在要判斷北美旅客前往歐洲的情況仍然太早,但我可以說,已在帳上的預訂(business on the books)——同樣地,在 '27 後段——仍在持續改善。

  • And in terms of the back side of your question, in terms of a drag customers booking 2027, look, I think when we look at what happened this year, we were clearly behind the booking curve for our European 2026 season. That forced us to do some more -- have a more promotional environment combined with the higher airfare. But I think it's very early to make any sort of assertions on 2027 in Europe other than to say that it is continuing to improve.

    至於你問題的後半段,關於客戶預訂 2027 是否會造成拖累——你看,我想當我們回顧今年發生的事,我們在歐洲 2026 航季的預訂曲線上顯然落後。這迫使我們在較高機票價格的情況下,採取更多——也就是更偏促銷的市場環境。但我認為,現在對 2027 年歐洲市場做任何斷言都還太早;我們只能說它仍在持續改善。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And who knows where the conflict will be three months, let alone 6 months down the road.

    而且誰知道三個月後、甚至六個月後,衝突會是什麼樣子。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandt Montour, Barclays.

    Brandt Montour,巴克萊(Barclays)。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • I was hoping, John, you've been obviously studying what your competitors are doing, and you've been talking for a few months now on converting to a more traditional baseloading revenue management style.

    John,我原本希望問的是:你顯然一直在研究競爭對手在做什麼,而且你這幾個月一直在談要轉向更傳統的基礎載入(baseloading)收益管理模式。

  • Have you guys thought at all about how your consumers and your travel agents will react to this new strategy from Norwegian, obviously, sort of trying to convince them that not to wait for a lower price and that the price is not going to go lower into sailing date, which, again, they probably have been used to from the Norwegian brand over the past decade. So I guess the question is, do you expect them to sort of adjust to this new plan?

    你們是否有思考過,消費者與旅行社會如何回應 Norwegian 的這個新策略?顯然,你們某種程度上是在說服他們不要等更低的價格,並且價格不會在接近出航日期時再往下掉;而這一點,他們可能在過去十年對 Norwegian 品牌已經習以為常。所以我的問題是:你們預期他們會調整並適應這個新計畫嗎?

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I mean I think we talked about that on our last call that when you do this, you don't really know how long it will take to retrain, so to speak, the guest and the travel community. But I think given again that this will align us more with where the industry is as a whole, I don't think this is a multiyear thing. Does it work instantly right out of the chute? I guess we're going to find that out.

    是的。我的意思是,我想我們在上一次電話會議也談過:當你這麼做時,你其實不太知道要花多久時間,才能重新訓練——可以這麼說——旅客與旅遊通路。但我認為,鑑於這會讓我們更貼近整體產業的做法,我不認為這會是需要好幾年的事情。它會不會一開始就立刻奏效?我想我們會拭目以待。

  • But I also think we have some plans and ideas, which we need to like further develop them that will help expedite this process. So I think there are things we can do to ensure that it goes quicker rather than longer. It's clearly the right thing to do over the long run. And again, when you look at our other brands, you see that it works better, no great surprise. So no, we have a lot of confidence in this. So the right thing to do.

    但我也認為我們有一些計畫與想法——我們需要進一步把它們完善——能夠幫助加速這個過程。所以我認為我們有一些事情可以做,確保它進展更快而不是拖更久。從長期來看,這顯然是正確的做法。而且再一次,當你看我們其他品牌,你會看到這樣做效果更好,這也不令人意外。所以不,我們對此非常有信心。這就是正確的事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

    Matthew Boss,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。

  • Matthew Boss - Analyst

    Matthew Boss - Analyst

  • So John, on your current booked position, which you cited as below optimal for the next 12 months, how much of this do you attribute to macro or items out of your control? And then, Mark, just relative to the 4Q exit rate for net yields now expected down 6% to 7%, could you just help bottoms-up bridge the opportunity you see in the back half of '27 versus the baseline, it sounds like negative yields in the first half?

    John,關於你目前的已預訂部位(booked position),你提到未來12個月低於最佳水準,其中有多少是你歸因於總體環境或你無法控制的因素?另外,Mark,針對目前預期第4季的淨收益率(net yields)退出率(exit rate)將下滑 6% 到 7%,你能否用自下而上的方式,協助我們把 '27 下半年相對於基準的機會做個橋接?聽起來上半年似乎是負收益率。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Matt, as to the first part, I would say being below the curve is -- I mean, maybe on the margin, it's slightly due to macro events, but the vast, vast majority of our problems, as I've said all along, are self-inflicted, which, again, we love the industry, we love the environment. They're just execution issues, which we can fix because that's totally in our control.

    是的,Matt,關於第一部分,我會說低於曲線——我的意思是,可能在邊際上,確實有一點是因為總體事件,但我們問題的絕大、絕大多數,如我一直以來所說,都是自找的。也就是說,我們喜歡這個產業,我們喜歡這個環境。

  • I think, hopefully, we've proved that to you guys by -- I've been here all of five months, but two quarters in a row, $200 million-plus quarters of cost takeouts, you'll see more to come there because there's more to go. So we just have to execute, work as a team, and we can fix this. So no, I'd say it's mostly on us, not the macro.

    我希望我們已經向各位證明了這一點——我來這裡才五個月,但連續兩季,我們每季都做到了超過 2 億美元的成本削減;而且你們會看到後續還會有更多,因為還有進一步的空間。所以我們只需要把執行做好、以團隊方式合作,我們就能把它修好。所以不,我會說主要是我們自己的問題,不是總體環境。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And Matt, in terms of the exit rate on yields for Q4, obviously, as I've said in my prepared remarks, we are expecting the first half to be negative, but that's primarily as a result of Q1. So we are expecting to see sequential improvement in the quarters over the course of 2027. So we're seeing improving trends. I think when you think about load factors, there's opportunity for load factors.

    是的。Matt,至於第4季收益率的退出率,顯然如我在事先準備的發言中所說,我們預期上半年會是負的,但那主要是 Q1 的影響。因此,我們預期在 2027 年的過程中,各季會逐季改善。所以我們看到趨勢正在改善。我想當你思考載客率(load factors)時,載客率仍有提升空間。

  • There's opportunities to get better base business on the books. And of course, just managing our overall revenue management funnel better. So certainly a lot of opportunities. And I think it's going to come down to, again, getting our team -- we have our team in place, executing and making that slow change. But we are starting to see that in the latter part of 2027.

    在已在帳上的基礎業務(base business on the books)方面也有機會做得更好。當然,還有把我們整體收益管理漏斗(revenue management funnel)管理得更好。所以確實有很多機會。而我認為最終還是要回到——再一次——讓我們的團隊到位;我們的團隊已經就位,接下來就是執行並推動那個緩慢的改變。但我們已經開始在 2027 年後段看到這些變化。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • But it is early.

    但現在還太早。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, I want to caution everybody, it is early.

    是的,我想提醒大家,現在還太早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    Conor Cunningham,Melius Research。

  • Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

  • We've kind of danced around this, I think, a bit the past few quarters. When you talk about being behind on the booked position, I was hoping you might actually put a number on what that might mean. Like how far behind are you on the first half of '27 versus a normal year?

    我覺得過去幾個季度我們有點在迴避這個話題。當你談到在已預訂部位上落後時,我原本希望你能實際給出一個數字,說明這大概意味著什麼。例如,'27 年上半年相較於正常年份,你們落後了多少?

  • And I'm not trying to spin this as a positive, but it seems like it's actually good that you are behind as you let your changes to your RM strategy kind of take hold. So I was hoping for an actually more granular discussion around it. I just think it's important given the expected inflection in the second half of '27.

    我不是想把這件事包裝成正面,但看起來你們落後其實是好事,因為這樣可以讓你們對 RM 策略的調整逐步發揮效果。所以我希望能就此做更細緻的討論。我只是認為,鑑於預期 '27 年下半年的轉折點,這點很重要。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Conor, well, I certainly don't think we're dancing around it. I think it would behoove us. We don't provide that level of granular detail. I will remind everybody on the call, generally speaking, our targeted range is around between 60% to 65% as a system at the holdings level. And obviously, when you look at our performance, both in Q3 and Q4, and expected in Q1, that is a reflection of us being behind the booking curve.

    Conor,我當然不認為我們是在迴避。我認為我們應該——我們不提供那種程度的細部資訊。我提醒各位與會者,一般而言,我們在持有層級(holdings level)以整個系統來看,目標區間大約是 60% 到 65%。而且顯然,當你看我們在 Q3、Q4 的表現,以及預期在 Q1 的表現時,那反映了我們落後於預訂曲線。

  • So we are improving that. That is part of our overall strategy to get back on a normalized booking curve, which will just pay off in many different ways. But I think to get granular between quarters really is not going to serve a great purpose.

    所以我們正在改善。這是我們整體策略的一部分,目標是回到正常化的預訂曲線,這將在很多方面帶來回報。但我認為把季度之間拆得很細,並不會帶來太大意義。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Hardiman, Citi.

    James Hardiman,花旗。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • So John, you've now been at the helm for a little while now and obviously doing a lot of sort of background work here. I've asked this question a million times in a million ways, but I'll give it a shot again. And it's a product-related question. Just given the magnitude of the yield declines that we've seen not only this year, but not keeping pace with the rest of the industry in previous years. I'm curious if you could dig in a little bit on sort of how you see the Norwegian product from a competitive perspective.

    John,你現在掌舵也有一段時間了,顯然也做了很多幕後工作。我用各種方式問過這個問題無數次,但我再試一次。這是一個與產品相關的問題。考量到我們今年看到的殖利率下滑幅度,以及過去幾年你們沒有跟上產業其他同業的步伐。我想請你更深入談談,你如何從競爭角度看待 Norwegian 的產品。

  • You talked in the prepared remarks about how customer satisfaction scores are, if anything, they're up. But it seems to me like the whole industry is just getting better in terms of their product offerings.

    你在事先準備的發言中提到,客戶滿意度分數如果說有變化,反而是上升。但在我看來,整個產業在產品供給方面都在變得更好。

  • And so I guess it's a long-winded way of saying, is it possible that even if you've kept pace with sort of historical Norwegian standards, maybe you just haven't kept pace with an industry that's growing their ship offerings and their private destination offerings. And if that's the case, how is that going to work as you try to remove $225 million of annualized costs and $1 billion of CapEx moving forward? Is there the potential that ultimately, you're going to fall further and further behind from a competitive perspective?

    所以我用比較冗長的方式問:是否有可能,即使你們維持了過去 Norwegian 的歷史水準,但其實沒有跟上整個產業在擴充船隊供給與私人目的地供給的成長?如果是這樣,當你們接下來要移除 2.25 億美元的年化成本、並在未來削減 10 億美元的資本支出(CapEx)時,這會如何運作?是否存在一種可能:最終你們在競爭面上會愈落愈後?

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Okay. Yes. So you're right. I've been here all of five months, but I'll tell you what I think. No, I don't think it's a product offering issue. And when I talk to lots of people in the trade, big travel agents and consumers, I think people generally say our hardware is definitely competitive and you have great ships, you have great crew, you have good experiences.

    是的。好。是的。所以你說得對。我來這裡才五個月,但我告訴你我的看法。不,我不認為是產品供給的問題。當我和業界很多人、主要旅行社以及消費者交流時,我認為大家普遍會說,我們的硬體絕對具有競爭力:你們有很棒的船、很棒的船員,也有很好的體驗。

  • I think our island, I'm hoping as many of you will see this new island that, as Mark said, has its soft opening next week. I think our island is top notch. I think our waterpark is going to be unbelievable. So no, I'll come back to -- I really think our issue is all in how we've marketed or not marketed.

    我認為我們的島嶼——我希望你們很多人都能看到這座新島,正如 Mark 所說,下週會進行試營運(soft opening)。我認為我們的島嶼是一流的。我認為我們的水上樂園會令人難以置信。所以不,我回到——我真的認為我們的問題完全在於我們如何行銷,或沒有好好行銷。

  • I think it's a combination of both. We clearly spend way too much money at the lower end of the funnel, not at the top of the funnel. So when we all came in here and I was like, okay, let's go do media mix models, which sounds very basic, and no great surprise. We weren't really spending money where we needed to, and we weren't being very efficient.

    我認為兩者都有。我們顯然在漏斗底端花了太多錢,而不是在漏斗頂端。所以當我們都來到這裡時,我就想,好吧,我們來做媒體組合模型(media mix models),聽起來很基本,也不令人意外。我們其實沒有把錢花在該花的地方,而且效率也不高。

  • So in my mind, it's all about marketing and getting the product back in front of the consumer, because when we get them there, like we said, the scores are great, repeat visits are great. So it's just driving that demand. I really don't think that we have a product issue at all. I think we just got to get the top of the funnel going faster and better.

    所以在我看來,關鍵完全在行銷:把產品重新帶到消費者面前,因為當我們把他們帶進來時,就像我們說的,評分很高、回訪率也很高。所以就是要推動那個需求。我真的不認為我們有任何產品問題。我認為我們只是得讓漏斗頂端更快、更好地運轉起來。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And James, just to elaborate on that, when you think about the customers who are on board, we continue to see very solid trends in terms of their overall onboard spend. So it just reinforces the fact that we've got to sharpen our marketing message on the Norwegian brand. And just one follow-up.

    James,補充一下,當你想到船上的顧客時,我們持續看到他們整體船上消費(onboard spend)呈現非常穩健的趨勢。所以這再次強化了:我們必須把 Norwegian 品牌的行銷訊息打磨得更到位。另外再追問一點。

  • I think you had mentioned somewhere in your question around the cost and the impact on product. I want to reiterate that the items that we've announced this year over the last two quarters, none of that touches product. That's all behind the scenes, efficiencies, corporate back office. So I just want to be very clear about that. In terms of going forward, we expect similar things, again, not impacting the product and in many cases, enhancing it.

    我想你在問題中某處提到成本以及對產品的影響。我想重申,我們今年在過去兩個季度宣布的事項,沒有任何一項會影響產品。那全部都是幕後的效率提升、企業後勤(corporate back office)。所以我想把這點講得非常清楚。至於未來,我們預期也會有類似的作法,同樣不會影響產品,而且在很多情況下還會強化產品。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I was about to point out. In some cases, we've actually enhanced. So it's a good point.

    是的。我正要指出這點。在某些情況下,我們其實還做了提升。所以這是個好觀點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robin Farley, UBS.

    Robin Farley,瑞銀。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask, you've talked about, in 2025 and 2026, how some itinerary plans in Europe were not ideal in terms of like the length of the itineraries and the amount of open jaw cruises. And I know that itineraries can take a while to turn around. So the 2027 maybe was planned before a lot of other changes that you've been making. So is there anything that you would call out for 2027 that we should be aware of in terms of itineraries that like might not quite be ideal? Or would you say that 2027 is going to be a change compared to I think, some of the issues you've called out in prior years.

    我想問,你們談到在 2025 年和 2026 年,歐洲的一些航線規劃在航程長度以及開口航線(open jaw)郵輪的比例方面並不理想。我也知道航線需要一段時間才能調整。所以 2027 年可能是在你們做出許多其他改變之前就已規劃好的。那麼,對於 2027 年,有沒有任何你會特別提醒我們注意的航線安排——例如可能仍不夠理想的地方?或者你會說,2027 年相較於你們先前提到的一些問題,將會有所改變?

  • And then I don't know if you're allowing part two of question one, but Mark's comment about the first half of '27 negative yields being mostly due to Q1 and then sequential improvement, does that actually mean Q2 would not be down? That's kind of what it sounded like that maybe that would be not negative in Q2. So just to clarify that, if you're allowing that sort of part two.

    另外我不確定你們是否允許第一個問題的第二部分,但 Mark 提到 '27 年上半年負殖利率主要是因為 Q1,之後會逐季改善;那是否其實表示 Q2 不會下滑?聽起來好像 Q2 可能就不會是負的。所以想請你澄清一下,如果你們允許這種第二部分的追問。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So Robin, I'll just jump on the last part of the question in terms of first half. We've said we expect it to be negative, primarily from Q1, but I'm not going to parse it out between quarters. But other than the rest, we do expect sequential improvement.

    是的。Robin,我先回應問題最後一段、關於上半年的部分。我們說過預期會是負的,主要來自 Q1,但我不會把它拆分到各季度。不過除此之外,我們確實預期會逐季改善。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And on the question about the open jaws, yes, obviously, now that we're working better as a holistic team, we're working to see what changes we can make in '27 and '28 so that we don't have as many open jaw itineraries going forward. But I think as you sort of indicated in your question, some of that is dependent on when you can find slots in different ports.

    是的。至於您提到的開口航程(open jaws)問題,是的,顯然,現在我們以更整體的一個團隊方式運作,我們正在研究在 '27 和 '28 可以做哪些調整,讓未來不要再有那麼多開口航程的行程安排。但我認為,正如您在問題中所指出的,其中一部分取決於您何時能在不同港口找到靠泊時段(slots)。

  • So it's not like if you could flip a switch and change everything today, you would. So some of this just takes more time, because it's not all in our control when we can make some of these changes.

    所以這不是那種如果你今天能按下開關、立刻把一切都改掉,你就會去做的事情。因此其中一些確實需要更多時間,因為我們能在何時做出某些變更並非完全由我們掌控。

  • But each year, it should get better and better and sort of revert back to what we saw four or five years ago is our norm. So I would just say you'll see sequential improvement over the years as we head back in the opposite direction there.

    但每一年都應該會越來越好,並且某種程度上回到我們四、五年前所看到、也就是我們的常態。所以我只想說,隨著我們往相反方向調整回去,未來幾年你會看到逐年、逐季的改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research Company.

    Vince Ciepiel,Cleveland Research Company。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • You talked about improving trends as you look at the '27 position moving through the year. Just curious if you could comment on what you've seen in bookings more recently in terms of the cadence over the last few months. And if this conflict kind of reigniting that's been noticeable, or if you think cruise bookers are kind of looking through it into next year and putting those sailings on the books regardless?

    你談到在一年當中推進時,'27 的部位呈現改善趨勢。我想請教你能否評論一下,最近幾個月在預訂方面你們看到的情況,尤其是節奏(cadence)如何。以及這場衝突似乎再度升溫是否已經有明顯影響,或者你認為郵輪的預訂者其實是把它看作短期雜音、著眼明年,仍然照樣把那些航次先訂下來?

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Vince, look, yes, when you look at where we are today and we look at the geopolitical landscape, there's certainly been a lot of volatility. When you look at what we just did with our semiannual sale, we did see some improvements there. So generally speaking, I think going back to what John said, this industry is still very strong. I think the macro environment, while sometimes volatile, still is very productive for cruise demand.

    是的。Vince,你看,是的,當你看我們今天的位置以及地緣政治局勢時,確實有很多波動。但就我們剛做完的半年一次促銷(semiannual sale)來看,我們確實看到一些改善。所以整體而言,我想回到 John 說的,這個產業仍然非常強勁。我認為總體環境雖然有時波動,但對郵輪需求仍然相當有利。

  • So I think as we can continue to execute and change -- improve our demand-generating engine and, of course, get the right marketing message out there to the targeted customer, I think that's just going to continue to help us. But again, that takes time. That doesn't happen overnight. And I think we're going to continue to see, as we've said, continued improvement sequentially in 2027.

    所以我認為,只要我們能持續執行並改善——提升我們的需求生成引擎,當然也把正確的行銷訊息傳遞給目標客群,我認為這會持續幫助我們。但同樣地,這需要時間。這不會一夕之間發生。而且我認為我們會繼續看到——如同我們所說的——2027 年將會逐季持續改善。

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And I wouldn't say -- because you used the word, I think you said noticeable impact. I would say maybe the booking curve on certain things has moved in a little bit closer just due to the global uncertainties, but I don't think that's a material. But I think you see that on the margin.

    我不會說——因為你用了這個詞,我想你說的是「明顯影響」。我會說,或許因為全球不確定性,某些產品的預訂曲線(booking curve)稍微往更接近出發日的方向移動了一點,但我不認為那是重大的。不過我認為在邊際上確實看得到。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Richard Clarke, Bernstein.

    Richard Clarke,Bernstein。

  • Richard Clarke - Analyst

    Richard Clarke - Analyst

  • If I look on your slide 11 about your implied 4Q guidance, obviously, a fair shift in the NCC ex fuel guidance from down 0.9% in Q3 to up 1.1% in Q4. Just anything one-off in why costs start growing again in Q4, and maybe how we should think about, therefore, the exit rate on cost growth into 2027?

    如果我看你們投影片 11 關於第 4 季隱含指引(implied 4Q guidance),很明顯 NCC(不含燃油)指引出現相當大的變化:從第 3 季下降 0.9% 變成第 4 季上升 1.1%。想請問第 4 季成本為何又開始成長,是否有任何一次性因素(one-off)?因此我們應該如何看待成本成長率在邁入 2027 年時的期末水準(exit rate)?

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. No, great question. So look, I think that's primarily around timing in terms of some of the quarterly cadence and as well as, as we think about doing some of our new marketing initiatives and creative that obviously we would expect to start hitting in Q4. But nothing structurally that would indicate that carries over into 2027. Again, as we continue to reemphasize, we continue to push hard on the cost front.

    是的。不,這是個很好的問題。你看,我認為這主要是時間點因素,涉及一些季度節奏(quarterly cadence),以及當我們考慮推動一些新的行銷倡議與創意內容時,這些我們預期會在第 4 季開始反映出來。但沒有任何結構性因素顯示會延續到 2027 年。同樣地,我們也一再強調,我們會在成本面持續用力推進。

  • We've announced $225 million in the last two quarters. We continue to believe that there's going to be more efficiencies to be had. So we're going to continue to make solid progress on that front.

    我們在過去兩個季度宣布了 2.25 億美元。我們仍然相信還會有更多效率可以取得。所以我們會在這方面持續取得扎實進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Berni, Jefferies.

    Anthony Berni,Jefferies。

  • Anthony Berni - Analyst

    Anthony Berni - Analyst

  • This is Anthony on for David Katz. Sticking with that cost bit, how do you feel about the $100 million cost savings you noted? Should we be expecting more nine-figure programs in the future? Are the remaining cost takeouts you've mentioned a little bit more incremental? And could you give us any color on where we should expect to see those?

    我是 Anthony,代 David Katz 提問。延續成本的話題,你們對所提到的 1 億美元成本節省的把握如何?未來我們是否應該期待更多「九位數」規模的計畫?你們提到的剩餘降本項目是否會更偏向漸進式(incremental)?以及你能否提供一些方向,這些節省預期會出現在哪些地方?

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I would say -- Mark can jump in here. I would say, yes, we continue to see meaningful cost opportunities. I'm not really going to size them, but I would say they're meaningful. Again, as Mark said, they're not guest focused at all. I mean it's just inefficiencies and ways we can use technology better.

    嗯,我會說——Mark 也可以補充。我會說,是的,我們仍然看到具實質意義的成本機會。我不打算量化規模,但我會說它們是有意義的。同樣地,如 Mark 所說,這些完全不是針對旅客體驗的。我的意思是,這只是一些低效率之處,以及我們可以更好地運用科技的方法。

  • I think we've talked in the past that we have lots of tests underway, whether it's AI-based, whether it's offshoring. So no, I think there's plenty more we can do on that. So I would say, I think we said on the last call, a lot of these cost cuts, we can get done in the next two, three quarters. So we'll just keep marching quarter-by-quarter and reporting back to you. But I think you'll see meaningful improvements as we move down the road.

    我想我們過去也談過,我們正在進行很多測試,不論是以 AI 為基礎的,或是離岸(offshoring)。所以不,我認為我們還有很多可以做。因此我會說,我想我們在上一次電話會議提到,很多這類成本削減,我們可以在接下來兩到三個季度完成。所以我們會一季一季地持續推進,並向各位回報。但我認為隨著時間推進,你會看到有意義的改善。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Just to add a bit more color. As we've talked about before, our global sourcing initiatives program, that's still at its early stages. So we certainly believe that there's broader opportunity around that. But again, our aim, as we've done the last three years, is really to deliver sub-inflationary or better unit cost performance. So that's our goal, and we continue to march along that path, and we're pretty confident that we will achieve that.

    是的。再補充一點細節。如同我們之前談過的,我們的全球採購倡議計畫(global sourcing initiatives program)仍處於早期階段。因此我們確實相信在那方面有更廣泛的機會。但同樣地,我們的目標——如同過去三年所做的——是真正交付低於通膨(sub-inflationary)或更好的單位成本表現。所以那是我們的目標,我們也會持續沿著那條路前進,而且我們相當有信心能達成。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Trey Bowers, Wells Fargo.

    Trey Bowers,Wells Fargo。

  • Trey Bowers - Analyst

    Trey Bowers - Analyst

  • Just a couple of questions on the island and the waterpark. I see that the waterpark went on sale in May. Just if you guys could put some numbers around what kind of early action you're seeing on buy-in, what you're kind of embedding in your guide starting in Q4 and into next year in terms of utilization, how much yield impact?

    關於島嶼和水上樂園我有幾個問題。我看到水上樂園在 5 月開始販售。想請你們用一些數字說明一下目前看到的早期購買意願(buy-in)大概如何;以及你們從第 4 季開始、到明年在指引中大概內嵌(embedding)了怎樣的使用率(utilization)假設、以及對收益率(yield)會有多大影響?

  • I don't know to what extent you're willing to do that, but if we could just get some numbers for a feel for what the benefit of the island could be. And then I guess related to that, with the new Head of Marketing on board, when should we expect to see a real marketing push around Great Stirrup Cay?

    我不確定你們願意透露到什麼程度,但如果可以的話,能否給一些數字,讓我們感受一下這座島可能帶來的效益。另外相關的一點是,新的行銷主管已到任,那麼我們何時可以期待針對 Great Stirrup Cay 進行真正的行銷推廣?

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll do the island. I mean, you're right, we're not going to go into granularity, which you kind of guessed that. I would say the new marketing, interim marketing will literally roll out in the next week to two weeks. I mean you've started to see some, but I think what I would really call the sort of marketing that I think of or you probably think of will roll out literally in the next couple of weeks.

    我來回答島嶼的部分。我的意思是,你說得對,我們不會談到太細的顆粒度,你大概也猜到了。我會說,新的行銷——過渡期的行銷——會在接下來一到兩週內就推出。我的意思是,你已經開始看到一些了,但我認為我所認定、或你可能所認定的那種行銷,會在接下來幾週內就正式推出。

  • When you think about the soft opening is next week, I think once that word of mouth gets out there, you got a lot of social marketing people that will hit the island over the coming weeks and certainly for the grand opening. So I think once all that sort of starts to blast out, I think we'll see a much bigger impact. But in terms of granularity, it's too early.

    當你想到下週就是試營運(soft opening),我認為一旦口碑傳開,接下來幾週會有很多社群行銷人士登島,當然也包括盛大開幕(grand opening)。所以我認為一旦這些開始大量曝光,我們會看到更大的影響。但就細部數字而言,現在還太早。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, I agree with John. It's just too early. We do have a lot of good activations that are coming up in not only the grand opening, but some other activations. So we're hopeful that that's going to be a momentum driver, but a bit early to make any assertions in terms of what that's going to flow through to '27.

    是的,我同意 John 的看法。現在還太早。我們確實有很多很好的活動即將推出,不僅是盛大開幕,還有其他一些活動。所以我們希望這會成為推動動能的驅動因素,但就其將如何反映到 2027 年的表現而言,現在下任何定論都還太早。

  • We obviously do believe that the island will be an enhancement, not only to our guests, but obviously, at the end of the day, bottom line. But it's very early. We just really haven't hit it hard on the marketing front yet.

    我們當然相信這座島嶼將帶來提升,不僅對我們的賓客而言,顯然最終也會反映在獲利上。但現在真的還很早。我們在行銷面向其實還沒有真正大力推進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

    Andrew Didora,美國銀行。

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

    Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • So in the presentation this morning, you outlined your 2027 deployment strategy. I know nothing has really changed too much on an annual basis, but there was some shifting in the Caribbean, maybe a little bit more growth in the seasonally weaker 3Q. Just curious what is driving that? And I guess, bigger picture, how do you think about your deployment strategy next year as it relates to just your overall booking strategy?

    所以在今天早上的簡報中,你們概述了 2027 年的部署策略。我知道按年度來看其實沒有太多變化,但加勒比海那邊有一些調整,可能在季節性較弱的第三季有多一點成長。想請教是什麼在驅動這件事?另外從更宏觀的角度,談到明年的部署策略時,你們如何把它和整體訂位策略連結起來思考?

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Andrew, look, I think as you think about 2027 and our deployment mix, when you look at it holistically, you're right, you're not seeing any broad swings or broad major strategic changes. As we've said before, we believe in the strategy. You do see some marginal on the margin changes.

    Andrew,你看,當你思考 2027 年以及我們的部署組合時,從整體來看,你說得沒錯,你不會看到任何大幅度的擺動或重大的策略變更。正如我們之前說過的,我們相信這個策略。你確實會看到一些邊際上的小幅調整。

  • And I think your reference to the Caribbean in Q2 and Q3, it was probably about a 1 to 2 percentage point shift between quarters and things of that nature, that would just be natural redeployment of certain vessels or certain assets. So nothing indicative of a larger change.

    我想你提到第二季和第三季的加勒比海,可能就是季度之間大約 1 到 2 個百分點的移動,諸如此類,這只是某些船舶或資產的自然重新部署。所以這並不代表有更大的變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin Kopelman, TD Cowen.

    Kevin Kopelman,TD Cowen。

  • Kevin Kopelman - Analyst

    Kevin Kopelman - Analyst

  • I just had a follow-up. You talked about Q1 being pressured a few times. I was hoping you could just level set us putting a little bit of finer point on that. Q1, should we be thinking of it as similar to Q4? Or any other color you can basically give us on how you're seeing today beginning of next year shape up?

    我有個追問。你們多次提到第一季會有壓力。我希望你們能幫我們校準一下,稍微更精準地說明這點。第一季我們應該把它視為和第四季類似嗎?或者你們還能提供任何其他補充,說明你們目前看到明年年初的走勢會如何?

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Again, we're not really going into any sort of granularity like that. But if you think about what I said in the prepared remarks and in my answers to questions, again, if you just think about demand generation, a new group of people, changing how you're doing baseloading, which obviously will take time, that's going to have much more of an impact in later quarters in '27.

    是的。再次說明,我們不會深入到那種細節層級。但如果你回想我在事先準備的發言以及回答問題時所說的,再次強調,若你從需求生成的角度來看——一群新客群、改變你們進行基礎訂位(baseloading)的方式——這些顯然都需要時間,對 2027 年後續季度的影響會更大。

  • And as I said, really that piece '28, the baseloading, all those things take time. So again, half of our team showed up in the last two, three weeks. So really impacting Q1 is just very difficult. So it's not that the macro environment changed or anything like that. It's sort of all these pieces that we're putting in place, as they come together, they're going to benefit us, I guess, is the right way to say as we move through the year.

    而且如我所說,真正到 2028 年那一塊——基礎訂位以及所有這些事情都需要時間。所以再說一次,我們團隊有一半的人是在過去兩三週才到位。因此要在第一季就產生實質影響非常困難。所以並不是總體環境改變或類似的原因。而是我們正在把這些要素逐一建置起來;當它們逐步到位並整合後,隨著一年推進,就會帶來效益,我想這樣說比較恰當。

  • And I think as we said, given that sequentially each quarter looks better, I think you can already start or we can start to see some of this falling into place, but it's just going to take a few quarters here. So -- I think we have time for one last question.

    而且我想我們也提過,鑑於每一季環比看起來都更好,我想你已經可以開始看到,或我們也開始看到其中一些正在逐步到位,但這裡還需要幾個季度的時間。所以——我想我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Stathoulopoulos, SIG.

    Chris Stathoulopoulos,SIG。

  • Christopher Stathoulopoulos - Analyst

    Christopher Stathoulopoulos - Analyst

  • So I appreciate the graphics here on slide 8 with the new RM tactics. I just want to understand why the, I guess, for lack of a word, not delay, but the new tactics here in the baseloading pricing strategy, so later in '27, '28. Is that really a function of testing? Or is there some required IT or stack build-out there? I'm just curious why that can't be accelerated.

    我很感謝你們在第 8 頁投影片用圖表呈現新的 RM 策略。我想了解的是,這裡新的策略在基礎訂位定價策略上,為什麼會在 2027 年較後期、以及 2028 年才體現——我想用詞不太精準,與其說是延遲,不如說是時間點較晚。這主要是因為需要測試嗎?還是需要一些 IT 或技術堆疊(stack)的建置?我只是好奇為什麼不能加速。

  • And I also understand that how that might work with more of the contemporary Norwegian brand. Curious if part of this build-out requires some further back testing and evaluation across the more premium brands like Oceania and Regent, and how that might be received in the marketplace?

    我也理解這可能更適用於較偏當代(contemporary)的 Norwegian 品牌。但我好奇,這個建置的一部分是否需要在更高端的品牌(例如 Oceania 和 Regent)上做更多回溯測試與評估,以及市場會如何接受?

  • John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    John Chidsey - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, those are very different things, and there's no test. We're not saying we're delayed. We are going forward right now. Just if you think about the '27, the first quarter, it's obviously much more booked, the second quarter to a certain extent. So we're starting now.

    不,那是非常不同的兩件事,而且沒有在測試。我們也不是在說我們延遲了。我們現在就正在推進。只是如果你看 2027 年,第一季顯然已經訂得比較滿,第二季在某種程度上也是。所以我們是從現在開始。

  • I'm just saying the impact will obviously be much more consequential in the back half because there's less stuff booked in '27. But no, there's no delay. I mean, we've already begun to work on all this in terms of changing pricing in select markets. So we're doing it sort of from the ground up, market by market, sailing by sailing, because you can't crop dust here. So no, if I gave you that impression, that's not right.

    我只是說,影響在下半年會更顯著,因為 2027 年後面的可訂量(或已訂程度)比較少。但不,沒有延遲。我的意思是,我們已經開始在部分市場調整定價。所以我們是自下而上在做,一個市場一個市場、一次航次一次航次地做,因為你不能在這裡用「大範圍撒播」的方式一體適用。所以不,如果我讓你有那種印象,那是不對的。

  • It's really more when will the impact happen. It's underway as we speak. All right. I think that's it. Thank you guys very much for joining us, and thank you for all the questions, and we look forward to following up with you in the coming days.

    重點其實是影響會在什麼時候發生。我們此刻正在進行中。好。我想就到這裡。非常感謝各位今天加入,也謝謝大家的提問,我們期待在接下來幾天與各位再進一步跟進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話。感謝您的參與。