Navient Corp (NAVI) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Navient third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 Navient 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。本次通話正在錄音。（操作說明）

At this time, I'll now turn the call over to Jen Earyes, Navient Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把電話交給 Navient 投資者關係主管 Jen Earyes。請繼續。

Hello. Good morning, and welcome to Navient's earnings call for the third quarter of 2025. With me today are David Yowan, Navient's CEO; and Joe Fisher, Navient CFO. After the prepared remarks, we will open up the call for questions. Today's discussion is accompanied by a presentation, which you can find on navient.com/investors.

你好。早上好，歡迎參加 Navient 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是 Navient 的執行長 David Yowan 和 Navient 的財務長 Joe Fisher。在發言結束後，我們將開放提問環節。今天的討論附帶一份演示文稿，您可以在 navient.com/investors 上找到它。

Before we begin, keep in mind our discussion will contain predictions, expectations, forward-looking statements, and other information about our business that is based on management's current expectations as of the date of this presentation. Actual results in the future may be materially different from those discussed here. This could be due to a variety of factors. Listeners should refer to the discussion of those factors on the company's Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，請記住，我們的討論將包含預測、預期、前瞻性陳述以及其他關於我們業務的信息，這些信息均基於管理層截至本次演示之日的當前預期。未來的實際結果可能與此處討論的結果有重大差異。這可能是由多種因素造成的。聽眾可以參考該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和其他文件中對這些因素的討論。

During this conference call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including core earnings, adjusted tangible equity ratio, and various other non-GAAP financial measures that are derived from core earnings. Our GAAP results, description of our non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation of core earnings to GAAP results can be found in Navient's third quarter 2025 earnings release, which is posted on our website.

在本次電話會議中，我們將提及非公認會計準則財務指標，包括核心收益、調整後的有形權益比率以及其他各種源自核心收益的非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的 GAAP 業績、非 GAAP 財務指標說明以及核心收益與 GAAP 業績的調整表可在 Navient 2025 年第三季財報中查閱，該報告已發佈在我們的網站上。

Thank you, and now I will turn the call over to Dave.

謝謝，現在我把電話交給戴夫。

Thanks, Jen. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the call and for your interest in Navient. This morning, we reported results that highlight our ability to drive high-quality loan growth and reduce operating expenses. Our expected life of loan cash flows increased substantially as our legacy loan portfolios experienced lower prepayment (inaudible). We also updated default rate, financing, and secured debt service assumptions and incurred regulatory and restructuring charges. Adjusting for these assumption changes and charges, core EPS was $0.29 for the quarter. A summary of these significant items can be found on slide 2.

謝謝你，珍。各位早安。感謝您參加本次電話會議，也感謝您對 Navient 的關注。今天上午，我們公佈的業績突顯了我們推動高品質貸款成長和降低營運成本的能力。由於我們原有貸款組合的提前還款率降低，我們預期貸款現金流的期限大幅延長。（聽不清楚）我們也更新了違約率、融資和擔保債務償還假設，並產生了監管和重組費用。在調整這些假設變化和費用後，該季度核心每股收益為 0.29 美元。這些重要事項的摘要請參閱投影片 2。

We're also announcing a new share repurchase authorization of $100 million. This authorization provides additional capacity and flexibility to purchase future value at a discount.

我們同時宣布一項新的股票回購授權，金額為 1 億美元。這項授權提供了額外的能力和靈活性，可以以折扣價購買未來的價值。

Turning to our engine for future growth. For the third straight quarter, Earnest doubled origination volume year over year, totaling approximately $800 million in new loans. This included $528 million in refi loans, our highest quarterly volume this year, accompanied by credit quality that is among the strongest in our refi history. In-school lending also saw a record peak season, with $260 million originated, also the highest quarterly volume in our history.

轉向我們未來發展的引擎。Earnest連續第三個季度實現貸款發放量年增一倍，新增貸款總額約8億美元。其中包括 5.28 億美元的再融資貸款，這是我們今年最高的季度貸款金額，同時信貸品質也是我們再融資史上最強的之一。在校貸款業務也迎來了創紀錄的高峰期，發放貸款達 2.6 億美元，這也是我們歷史上最高的季度貸款額。

Our strong performance across both product lines demonstrates our ability to attract high-quality, high-balance customers, many of them graduate students, by offering products and a customer experience that meets their needs and exceeds their expectations. Earnest refinance business helps high-earning, early professionals move from managing debt to building wealth. We focus on customers with prime to super prime credit, most earning over six figures, and about half holding graduate degrees.

我們在兩條產品線上的出色表現表明，我們有能力吸引高品質、高素質的客戶，其中許多是研究生，因為我們提供的產品和客戶體驗能夠滿足他們的需求並超越他們的期望。誠意再融資業務幫助高收入的職場新人從管理債務轉向累積財富。我們專注於信用評級為優質或極優的客戶，其中大多數收入超過六位數，約有一半擁有研究生學歷。

We succeed with this segment through a streamlined, transparent application process, advanced underwriting, personalized pricing, and an in-house, US-based client happiness team with industry-leading Trustpilot scores. Borrowers can select from up to 240 term and rate combination, making ours one of the most flexible refinance products in the market.

我們透過簡化、透明的申請流程、先進的核保、個人化的定價以及一支位於美國、擁有業界領先的 Trustpilot 評分的內部客戶滿意度團隊，在這個領域取得了成功。借款人可從多達 240 種期限和利率組合中進行選擇，這使我們的產品成為市場上最靈活的再融資產品之一。

Data-driven marketing and a mobile-optimized process allow us to efficiently attract and serve financially sophisticated borrowers. Our scalable platform supports higher volumes and additional products. We're proud of our momentum, excited about future growth, especially with the backdrop of potential fed rate reductions and expanded product and market opportunities.

數據驅動行銷和行動優化流程使我們能夠有效率地吸引和服務具有金融素養的借款人。我們可擴展的平台支援更高的交易量和更多的產品。我們為目前的良好發展勢頭感到自豪，對未來的成長充滿期待，尤其是在聯準會可能降息以及產品和市場機會擴大的背景下。

Turning to our ongoing effort to aggressively reduce expenses. We're pleased to report that we will exceed our ambitious expense reduction targets ahead of schedule. You'll recall that less than two years ago, we shared the ambitious goals related to our strategic initiatives, outsource loan servicing, divest BPS, and reshape our infrastructure and corporate footprint.

接下來，我們將著手持續努力，積極削減開支。我們很高興地宣布，我們將提前超額完成雄心勃勃的成本削減目標。您可能還記得，不到兩年前，我們分享了與我們的策略性舉措、外包貸款服務、剝離 BPS 以及重塑我們的基礎設施和公司佈局相關的雄心勃勃的目標。

The removal of a large amount of infrastructure and corporate expenses was dependent on the successful completion of the first two objectives. We have now completed our final obligations under the last Transition Services Agreement, the final milestone in our Phase 1 transformation. This is earlier than both our original timing and the timing we shared last quarter. Team Navient has done a phenomenal job to accomplish this feat.

大幅削減基礎設施和企業開支取決於前兩個目標的成功實現。我們現已完成最後一份過渡服務協議下的最後義務，這是我們第一階段轉型的最後一個里程碑。這比我們最初的計劃時間和上個季度公佈的計劃時間都要早。Navient團隊為完成這項壯舉做出了卓越的貢獻。

Completing our obligations under the final TSA allows us to accelerate the removal of final expenses that were previously identified for removal. These expenses include $14 million in the third quarter that were supporting the TSA as well as additional expenses that could not be eliminated until all TSA obligations were complete, all of which will further reduce our corporate footprint. These expense removals are already underway and are expected to be completed in the first few months of 2026. Once complete, we have exceeded our initial goal of $400 million run rate expense reduction target set in January 2024. We're now on track to remove over 90% of this expense reduction target by the end of 2025.

履行完最終 TSA 項下的義務後，我們可以加快消除先前已確定要消除的最終費用。這些支出包括第三季用於支持美國運輸安全管理局 (TSA) 的 1,400 萬美元，以及在履行所有 TSA 義務之前無法消除的其他支出，所有這些都將進一步減少我們的企業規模。這些費用削減工作已經在進行中，預計將於 2026 年前幾個月完成。完成後，我們已超額完成了 2024 年 1 月設定的 4 億美元年度支出削減目標。我們現在正按計畫推進，到 2025 年底，將實現超過 90% 的開支削減目標。

Let me now turn to the cash flows we expect to harvest from our legacy loan portfolios. As you know, a significant portion of our portfolio is comprised of felt and private loans originated over a decade or more ago. Our portfolios have generally been experiencing lower levels of prepayments over the last few quarters.

現在讓我來談談我們預期從現有貸款組合中獲得的現金流。如您所知，我們投資組合中的很大一部分是由十多年前發放的毛氈貸款和私人貸款組成的。過去幾個季度，我們的投資組合的提前還款率普遍較低。

Our ongoing process of reviewing portfolio performance was supplemented by our Phase 2 review. The trends we are seeing have been incorporated into our life of loan cash flow assumptions. The trends are largely driven by changes in public policy and customer repayment behavior. The result is the increase of projected life of loan cash flows by approximately $195 million, all other factors held constant.

我們持續進行的投資組合績效審查流程輔以第二階段檢討。我們觀察到的這些趨勢已經納入到我們的貸款現金流假設中。這些趨勢主要受公共政策變化和客戶還款行為變化的影響。在其他因素保持不變的情況下，預計貸款現金流的預期期限將增加約 1.95 億美元。

Two of this quarter's assumptions changes had a significant impact on expected future cash flows. First, we lowered repayment rate assumptions reflecting changes in public policy under the current administration, which has not proposed nor encouraged federal and FFELP loan forgiveness programs. As a result of these changes alone, expected future cash flows increased by approximately $280 million across all of our outstanding loan portfolios. All of these future expected cash flows, no part of them is reflected in Q3 results.

本季兩項假設變更對預期未來現金流量產生了重大影響。首先，我們降低了還款率假設，以反映現任政府公共政策的變化，該政府既沒有提出也沒有鼓勵聯邦和 FFELP 貸款減免計劃。僅這些變化就導致我們所有未償貸款組合的預期未來現金流增加了約 2.8 億美元。所有這些預期的未來現金流，均未反映在第三季業績。

Secondly, we revised default and post-default recovery assumptions across all previously originated loans. These updates reflect slower portfolio amortization, continuation of recent credit trends in customer repayment, and recent recovery trends on defaulted loans. As a result, expected net life of loan charge-offs increased by $151 million. Unlike the increase in expected cash flows from slower prepayment speeds, all of these reductions in future cash flows are reflected as provision expense in Q3 results.

其次，我們修訂了所有先前發放貸款的違約和違約後回收假設。這些更新反映了投資組合攤銷速度放緩、客戶還款方面近期信貸趨勢的延續以及近期違約貸款的回收趨勢。因此，預計貸款核銷淨期限增加了 1.51 億美元。與提前還款速度放緩帶來的預期現金流量增加不同，所有這些未來現金流的減少都反映在第三季業績的撥備支出中。

In addition, we updated certain financing and securitized debt service assumptions. The net effect of these changes was to increase expected life of loan cash flows by $66 million.

此外，我們更新了一些融資和證券化債務償還假設。這些變化的最終結果是使貸款現金流的預期壽命增加了 6,600 萬美元。

Collectively, this set of changes increased life of loan cash flows by $195 million. As we do each quarter, life of loan cash flow projections were updated for actual loan repayments, new originations, and benchmark interest rate assumptions, among other factors. Given our strong origination volume this quarter, these updated volumes further increase expected life of loan cash flows. The increase in expected life of loan cash flows from these updated assumptions, and the actual results provides additional fuel for the growth strategy we have been working on.

總的來說，這一系列變化使貸款期限內的現金流增加了 1.95 億美元。與每季一樣，我們根據實際貸款償還情況、新發放貸款情況以及基準利率假設等因素，更新了貸款期限現金流預測。鑑於本季強勁的貸款發放量，這些更新後的貸款發放量將進一步延長貸款現金流的預期期限。根據這些更新後的假設，貸款現金流預期壽命的延長以及實際結果，為我們一直在努力實現的成長策略提供了額外的動力。

In addition, we recently completed our fourth term ABS financing of the year backed by refi loan collateral. We continue to experience strong investor demand for these securities and are achieving effective cash advance rates that demonstrate our ability to grow more rapidly with low capital intensity. So we have more fuel for our growth strategy, and we are growing in a more fuel-efficient way.

此外，我們最近完成了今年第四期 ABS 融資，該融資以再融資貸款作為抵押。我們持續感受到投資者對這些證券的強勁需求，並實現了有效的現金預支率，這表明我們能夠在資本密集度較低的情況下實現更快的成長。因此，我們擁有更多資源來支持我們的成長策略，而且我們的成長方式也更有效率。

We plan to provide an update on the progress of our going-forward growth strategy for our Earnest business on November 19. We look forward to sharing our observations and initiatives at that time.

我們計劃於 11 月 19 日提供關於 Earnest 業務未來成長策略進展的最新資訊。我們期待屆時與大家分享我們的觀察和措施。

With that, I'll turn it over to Joe.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給喬。

Thank you, Dave and everyone, on today's call for your interest in Navient. In the third quarter, we reported core loss per share of $0.84. Adjusting for significant items, we earned $0.29 per share. During the quarter, we demonstrated strong loan origination growth in both the refi and in-school lending prospects, reduced our operating expenses in line with our long-term efficiency initiatives, and increased our reserves.

感謝Dave以及今天所有參與電話會議的各位對Navient的關注。第三季度，我們公佈的核心每股虧損為 0.84 美元。剔除重大項目後，我們每股獲利 0.29 美元。本季度，我們在再融資貸款和在校貸款方面均實現了強勁的貸款發放增長，根據我們的長期效率提升計劃降低了營運費用，並增加了儲備金。

Our reported results include the upfront costs of higher origination volumes along with the following significant items. First, provision of $168 million, of which $151 million, or $1.17 per share, relates to previously originated loans. While our delinquency rates are improving, they remain elevated, and the provision reflects a continuation of both the credit trends and lower levels of prepayment activity we are experiencing.

我們報告的結果包括較高貸款發放量的前期成本，以及以下重要項目。首先，撥備 1.68 億美元，其中 1.51 億美元（即每股 1.17 美元）與先前發放的貸款有關。雖然我們的違約率有所改善，但仍處於較高水平，撥備反映了我們正在經歷的信貸趨勢和較低的提前還款活動水平的持續。

Second, an interest income benefit of $11 million, or $0.08 per share, resulting from the impact lower prepayment expectations have on loan premium, loan discount, and deferred financing fee amortization. And third, regulatory and restructuring expenses of $5 million or $0.04 per share.

其次，由於提前還款預期降低對貸款溢價、貸款折扣和遞延融資費用攤銷的影響，利息收入收益為 1,100 萬美元，即每股 0.08 美元。第三，監管和重組費用為 500 萬美元，即每股 0.04 美元。

Our outlook for the fourth quarter is a range of $0.30 $0.35 per share. Our fourth-quarter guidance range would place us within the full-year guidance of $1 to $1.20 a share, set at the beginning of the year, before the significant items we are announcing this quarter.

我們對第四季的預期是每股收益在 0.30 美元至 0.35 美元之間。我們第四季的業績指引範圍將使我們符合年初設定的全年每股收益 1 美元至 1.20 美元的指引，這還不包括我們本季將宣布的重大項目。

We'll walk through our results by segment, beginning with the Federal Education Loan segment on slide 7. The net interest margin for Q3 was 84 basis points. This is 14 basis points higher than the second quarter. The increase in the quarter included reduced premium amortization from lowering our prepayment rate assumptions, resulting in a 23 basis point benefit. Prepayments were $268 million in the quarter compared to $1 billion a year ago.

我們將按部分介紹我們的結果，首先從第 7 頁的聯邦教育貸款部分開始。第三季淨利差為 84 個基點。這比第二季高出14個基點。本季成長包括由於降低了我們的提前還款率假設而減少的保費攤銷，從而帶來了 23 個基點的收益。本季預付款額為 2.68 億美元，去年同期為 10 億美元。

In the quarter, we earned $13 million of floor income on [$3 billion] of eligible loans. With respect to floor income, if rates were, on average, 50 basis points lower throughout the quarter, floor income would have increased by an additional $4 million.

本季度，我們從符合條件的貸款（30億美元）中獲得了1,300萬美元的最低收入。就最低收入而言，如果整個季度利率平均降低 50 個基點，最低收入將額外增加 400 萬美元。

We expect fourth-quarter NIM to range between 55 and 60 basis points, which assumes moderately lower rates in the quarter. Compared to the second quarter, our total delinquencies declined from 19% to 18.1%, and the net charge-off rate increased 1 basis point to 15 basis points. The FFELP provision expense is driven in part by the expected extension of that portfolio from continued low levels of prepayments.

我們預計第四季淨利差將在 55 至 60 個基點之間，這假設該季度​​利率將略有下降。與第二季相比，我們的總逾期率從 19% 下降到 18.1%，淨核銷率上升 1 個基點至 15 個基點。FFELP 準備金支出部分原因是由於預付款水準持續偏低，預計該投資組合將會延長。

Now let's turn to our Consumer Lending segment on slide 8. Total loan originations in the quarter grew to $788 million, an increase of 58% from the year-ago period. This was driven by over 100% growth in refi originations and 9% growth in in-school originations. The doubling of refi originations demonstrates our capabilities to attract high-quality prospects and convert them to customers with improved efficiency.

現在讓我們來看看第 8 張投影片上的「消費信貸」部分。本季貸款發放總額成長至 7.88 億美元，比去年同期成長 58%。這主要得益於再融資業務成長超過 100% 以及在校貸款業務成長 9%。再融資業務量翻番，證明了我們有能力吸引高品質的潛在客戶，並以更高的效率將他們轉化為客戶。

The external environment is providing a tailwind as lower benchmark rates coincide with an increase in federal borrowers seeking to lower their rate and payments. A record high quarterly in-school originations of $260 million included $119 million of borrowers pursuing graduate degrees. We are raising our full-year total loan originations guidance to be around $2.4 billion or over 30% higher than our guidance provided at the beginning of the year. Net interest margin in this segment was 239 basis points in the quarter compared to 232 basis points in the second quarter.

外部環境提供了順風，因為基準利率走低，同時越來越多的聯邦借款人尋求降低利率和還款。創紀錄的季度在校學生貸款發放 2.6 億美元，其中 1.19 億美元用於攻讀研究生學位的借款人。我們將全年貸款發放總額預期上調至約 24 億美元，比年初給出的預期高出 30% 以上。本季該業務類股的淨利差為 239 個基點，而第二季為 232 個基點。

Unlike FFELP, where we have a net loan premium on our books, our private legacy portfolio is on our books at a net discount to par. Thus, lowering our prepayment rate assumptions reduced net interest income in the portfolio by $7 million, or 17 basis points. We expect consumer lending NIM for the fourth quarter to range between 255 and 265 basis points.

與 FFELP 不同，FFELP 的帳面上有淨貸款溢價，而我們的私人遺產投資組合的帳面上則有淨折價。因此，降低我們的提前還款率假設使投資組合的淨利息收入減少了 700 萬美元，即 17 個基點。我們預計第四季度消費貸款淨利差將在 255 至 265 個基點之間。

When looking at delinquency and default trends over the last year or so, some context might be helpful. In 2024, FEMA declared 90 major disasters in the US, a sizable increase when compared to the 30-year average of 55 major disasters. As a result, forbearance balances were elevated and were 2.8% of balances a year ago compared to 1.5% in the current quarter. As these borrowers exited disaster-related forbearance and returned to repayment, we saw 91%-plus delinquency rates rise to 3% in the second quarter of this year and begin to decline. These events coincided with changes in federal loan policy and broader economic pressures that have influenced repayment behavior.

在分析過去一年左右的拖欠和違約趨勢時，一些背景資訊可能會有所幫助。2024 年，美國聯邦緊急事務管理局 (FEMA) 宣布美國發生 90 起重大災害，與 30 年平均 55 起重大災害相比，這是一個相當大的增幅。因此，延期還款餘額較高，佔一年前餘額的 2.8%，而本季為 1.5%。隨著這些借款人結束與災害相關的延期還款並恢復還款，我們看到今年第二季超過 91% 的拖欠率上升至 3%，並開始下降。這些事件恰逢聯邦貸款政策的變化以及影響還款行為的更廣泛的經濟壓力。

While we are seeing improvement in delinquency rates, they continue to remain elevated. Of the $155 million of private education loan provisions that we took in the quarter, $17 million is related to new originations, and the remainder reflects our macroeconomic outlook and recent credit trends.

雖然我們看到違約率有所改善，但違約率仍居高不下。本季我們提列了 1.55 億美元的私人教育貸款撥備，其中 1,700 萬美元與新發放的貸款有關，其餘部分反映了我們的宏觀經濟前景和近期信貸趨勢。

Our allowance for loan loss, excluding expected future recoveries on previously charged-off loans for our entire education loan portfolio, is $765 million, which is highlighted on slide 9. The total reserve filled in the quarter is driven by a variety of factors, including changes in student loan borrower behavior, elevated delinquency rates, macroeconomic outlook changes, new originations, and the extension of the FFELP portfolio.

我們整個教育貸款組合的貸款損失準備金（不包括預期未來從先前已核銷的貸款中收回的款項）為 7.65 億美元，這在第 9 張幻燈片中重點列出。本季填滿的總準備金受多種因素影響，包括學生貸款借款人行為的變化、拖欠率上升、宏觀經濟前景變化、新增貸款以及 FFELP 貸款組合的擴展。

Slide 10 shows the results from our Business Processing segment. As of October 17, we have no further obligations to provide transition services for our government services business. The TSA revenues and expenses from this quarter total $7 million and $6 million, respectively, and are reported in the other segment. This final step allows us to begin removing $14 million of shared expenses primarily consisting of IT infrastructure that was leveraged to support multiple business lines prior to the strategic transformation. Once removed, we will have exceeded our original target of $400 million of expense savings that we outlined in January of 2024. More detail on total operating expenses can be found on slide 11.

第 10 張投影片展示了我們業務流程部門的成果。截至 10 月 17 日，我們不再有義務為我們的政府服務業務提供過渡服務。本季 TSA 的收入和支出分別為 700 萬美元和 600 萬美元，並在其他分部中報告。最後一步使我們能夠開始削減 1,400 萬美元的共享支出，這些支出主要包括策略轉型先前用於支援多個業務線的 IT 基礎設施。一旦移除，我們將超過 2024 年 1 月制定的節省 4 億美元開支的最初目標。有關總營運費用的更多詳細信息，請參閱第 11 頁幻燈片。

Compared to a year ago, our total core expenses for the quarter declined by $93 million to $109 million. This substantial decrease was driven by our focused efforts to significantly reduce our expense base through the divestiture of the BPS business, transition to a variable servicing structure, and reductions in our corporate shared service expenses.

與去年同期相比，我們本季的核心支出總額減少了 9,300 萬美元，至 1.09 億美元。這一大幅下降得益於我們集中精力大幅降低支出基礎，具體措施包括剝離 BPS 業務、過渡到可變服務結構以及減少公司共享服務支出。

Turning to our capital allocation and financing activity that is highlighted on slide 12. This month, we completed our fourth securitization of the year. Year to date, we have issued nearly $2.2 billion of term ABS financing. These transactions were characterized by strong investor demand and high advance rates. Our current cash and capital positions provide ample capacity to distribute capital and invest in strong loan origination growth.

接下來，我們來看看第 12 頁投影片中重點介紹的資本配置和融資活動。本月，我們完成了今年的第四筆證券化交易。今年迄今為止，我們已發行了近22億美元的定期資產支持證券融資。這些交易的特點是投資者需求強勁，預付款比例高。我們目前的現金和資本狀況提供了充足的能力來分配資本並投資於強勁的貸款發放成長。

In the quarter, we repurchased 2 million shares at an average price of $13.19, as our shares remain significantly below tangible book value. In total, we returned $42 million to shareholders who share repurchases and dividends while maintaining a strong balance sheet with an adjusted tangible equity ratio of 9.3%. Our quarterly guidance of $0.30 to $0.35 per share incorporates continued strong origination growth boosted by moderately lower interest rates and continued expense reductions.

本季度，我們以平均每股 13.19 美元的價格回購了 200 萬股股票，因為我們的股票價格仍然遠低於有形帳面價值。我們總共向參與股票回購和分紅的股東返還了 4,200 萬美元，同時維持了強勁的資產負債表，調整後的有形權益比率為 9.3%。我們預計每股收益為 0.30 至 0.35 美元，這主要得益於利率適度下降和持續的成本削減，推動了貸款發放量的持續強勁增長。

Thank you for your time, and I'll now open the call for any questions.

感謝您抽出時間，現在我將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Bill Ryan, Seaport Research Partners.

（操作說明）比爾·瑞安，海港研究合作夥伴。

First question obviously relates to the provision and delinquencies that you noted on the call. I look back last -- I'd say, in the last six of the seven years, we've seen delinquency rates go up from Q3 to Q4, excuse me, Q2 to Q3 actually went down both in the 30%-plus and 90%-plus this year. Forbearance rates, as you noted, have moved lower as well.

第一個問題顯然與您在電話中提到的供應和違約情況有關。回顧過去七年中的六年，我們看到拖欠率從第三季度到第四季度上升，抱歉，應該是第二季度到第三季度，實際上今年的拖欠率下降了 30% 以上和 90% 以上。正如您所指出的，寬限率也有所下降。

I was wondering if you could kind of talk about the decision process to do what looks like a Q3 cleanup provision. It's obviously very well-optimized to what we've seen in the last couple of quarters. And if you could maybe, Joe, be a little bit more specific about the default and recovery assumptions now embedded in the reserve rate and how those compare to current trend lines.

我想請您談談做出類似第三季清理準備金的決策過程。顯然，根據我們過去幾個季度所看到的，它已經得到了很好的優化。喬，你能不能更具體地解釋一下目前提列準備金率中隱含的違約和回收假設，以及這些假設與當前趨勢線的比較情況？

Hey, Bill. Thanks for the question. This is Dave. Let me try to step back and provide some context to the changes we've made around default and prepayment rates. And I think our situation is distinct because of our legacy portfolios. We first established life of loan loss reserves in January 2020 when CECL replaced the incurred loss model across lending in the US. Within a couple of months of recording that CECL reserve, of course, the pandemic began, and we, and like many other lenders, provided COVID-related forbearance to private loan borrowers. Of course, the federal government provided federal borrowers with payment relief, and they also provided consumers and small businesses with broad financial support programs.

嘿，比爾。謝謝你的提問。這是戴夫。讓我退後一步，為我們圍繞違約率和提前還款率所做的改變提供一些背景資訊。我認為我們的情況比較特殊，因為我們有歷史遺留的投資組合。我們於 2020 年 1 月首次建立了貸款壽命期損失準備金，當時 CECL 取代了美國貸款業務中的已發生損失模型。當然，在記錄 CECL 準備金後的幾個月內，疫情就開始了，我們和許多其他貸款機構一樣，向私人貸款借款人提供了與 COVID 相關的延期還款。當然，聯邦政府為聯邦借款人提供了還款減免，也為消費者和小型企業提供了廣泛的財務支持計畫。

As a result, delinquency rates and charge-offs in our legacy portfolios fell significantly during this period, and they remained at historically low levels for some period of time. We didn't release reserves during that period, as we expected the defaults that we assumed would happen were being deferred, not avoided.

因此，在此期間，我們遺留資產組合的違約率和核銷率大幅下降，並在一段時間內保持在歷史低點。在此期間，我們沒有釋放儲備金，因為我們預計會發生的違約事件只是被推遲，而不是被避免。

Federal loan payment relief programs were made in place for an extended period of time. Federal loan forgiveness programs were also proposed. It's only about two years ago that Federal loan payments resumed, and about a year ago that Credit Bureau reporting also resumed. As these relief programs were being wound down, we did, in fact, see over time, as you just pointed out, increases in delinquency rates and charge-offs. These included charge-offs that were deferred from during the pandemic.

聯邦政府的貸款償還減免計畫實施了較長一段時間。此外，也提出了聯邦貸款減免計劃。聯邦貸款償還恢復至今約兩年，信用局報告恢復至今約一年。隨著這些救濟計劃的逐步結束，正如你剛才指出的那樣，我們確實看到拖欠率和壞帳率隨著時間的推移而上升。其中包括疫情期間延期核銷的款項。

We also experienced, as Joe indicated, some disaster forbearance volumes, which further but temporarily increased our delinquency and default rates. At the same time, in recent quarters, we also began to experience incremental defaults. We continue to see those incremental defaults. These are due to a wide variety of factors, including changes in borrower repayment behavior and macroeconomic conditions. The provision expense we recorded this quarter assumes that these incremental defaults will continue for some time into the future.

正如喬所指出的那樣，我們也經歷了一些災難性延期還款的情況，這進一步但暫時地提高了我們的拖欠率和違約率。同時，近幾個季度，我們也開始經歷違約情況的逐步增加。我們持續看到這些逐步增加的違約情況。這些因素多種多樣，包括借款人還款行為的變化和宏觀經濟狀況的變化。本季提列的撥備支出假設這些新增違約事件將在未來一段時間內持續發生。

In recent quarters, we also began to see substantially lower levels of prepayments, especially within the federal portfolio. These have also continued. They're due to a wide variety of factors as well, but particularly public policy around federal loan forgiveness. The prepayment assumption changes we made this quarter also assume that these low levels of prepayments that we're experiencing will continue for some time in the future as well.

最近幾個季度，我們也開始看到預付款水準大幅下降，尤其是在聯邦投資組合中。這些情況也一直持續著。這同樣也是由多種因素造成的，但尤其與聯邦貸款減免相關的公共政策有關。我們本季對預付款假設所做的調整也假設，我們目前所經歷的這種低預付款水準在未來一段時間內仍將持續。

And Bill, to your question about recovery rate assumptions, think about our portfolio today. Our recovery rate assumption is about 17% on the private portfolio. If you go back 5 or 10 years, that would have been a higher recovery rate assumption, reason primarily driven by as these loans have seasoned, we've lowered that recovery rate over the years, but relatively flat over the last couple quarters at 17%.

比爾，關於你提出的回收率假設問題，想想我們今天的投資組合。我們對私人投資組合的回收率假設約為 17%。如果回顧 5 年或 10 年前，那將會是一個更高的回收率假設，主要原因是隨著這些貸款的成熟，我們這些年來降低了回收率，但在過去幾個季度裡，回收率相對穩定在 17%。

Okay. And then if we could kind of go to the gross default assumption as well.

好的。然後，如果我們也能大致了解一下預設假設的話。

Sure. In terms of the net charge-off rate that we've seen historically, we've given a charge-off rate range of 1.5% to 2%. We're trending slightly higher than that over the first nine months outside of our range. When we think about the new originations that we're making today, especially on the refi side, those are very high quality, as Dave highlighted in his prepared remarks, some of the highest credit scores that we've seen in our history. And so that charge-off rate assumption is roughly around 1.5% in terms of the new loans that we're making on the refi side.

當然。就我們歷史上看到的淨沖銷率而言，我們給出的沖銷率範圍是 1.5% 到 2%。在超出我們預期範圍的前九個月裡，我們的趨勢略高於這個水準。當我們思考我們今天發放的新貸款，特別是再融資貸款時，這些貸款的品質非常高，正如戴夫在他的準備好的發言稿中強調的那樣，其中一些貸款的信用評分是我們歷史上見過的最高水平。因此，就我們再融資方面發放的新貸款而言，核銷率假設約為 1.5%。

Okay. And just one quick follow-up, your guide for Q4, $0.30 to $0.35, I know you don't want to provide a 2026 outlet just yet, but should we be thinking that range as a potential starting point for moving into next year?

好的。還有一個後續問題，關於您第四季度的指導價，0.30 美元到 0.35 美元，我知道您現在還不想給出 2026 年的報價，但我們是否應該將這個範圍作為明年價格走勢的潛在起點？

So I wouldn't use it as a baseline just primarily because obviously, we've got a lot of opportunities here in terms of the next year that we'll address during our upcoming investor update as well as during the next quarter's earnings calls. So depending on interest rate assumptions that you're making, obviously, could be a significant tailwind for us as it relates to refi origination. There's an opportunity, from the elimination of the Grad PLUS program.

所以我不會把它作為基準，主要是因為很明顯，明年我們有很多機會，我們將在即將舉行的投資者更新會議以及下一季的收益電話會議上討論這些機會。因此，根據您所做的利率假設，顯然，這可能會對我們開展再融資業務產生重大利好作用。取消研究生PLUS計畫帶來了一個機會。

So as we circle those numbers and look forward to next year, obviously, there's higher provision expense that you take upfront in terms of the cost associated with those loans. So as we give you better guidance into next year, I would just keep in mind those upfront costs that you take during that time of origination will be a driver that you won't see necessarily in the fourth quarter.

因此，當我們展望明年並考慮這些數字時，顯然，在與這些貸款相關的成本中，需要預先提列更高的撥備支出。因此，當我們為您提供明年更詳細的指導時，我建議您記住，您在貸款發放初期承擔的那些前期成本，在第四季度未必能帶來收益。

Bill, if I could just add to that a bit. So look, if you think about the fourth quarter, we still have some expenses that we're going to take out that we expect to get rid of by the end of the first quarter of 2026, so we're not quite at run rate there. Operating expenses will undoubtedly be lower. We're looking for additional opportunities to do that.

比爾，如果我能補充一點的話。所以你看，如果你考慮第四季度，我們仍然有一些開支需要削減，我們預計到 2026 年第一季末將消除這些開支，所以我們還沒有完全達到正常水平。營運成本無疑會降低。我們正在尋找更多實現這一目標的機會。

I think the thing I would just emphasize that Joe just said is, as you think about '26, is we see substantial opportunities to grow -- to continue to grow as we have, and so the key variable in terms of run rate will be the acquisition costs and the upfront costs of additional loan originations.

我想強調的是，喬剛才說的，展望2026年，我們看到了大量的成長機會——繼續像現在這樣成長，因此，就運行率而言，關鍵變數將是收購成本和額外貸款發放的前期成本。

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

好的。謝謝您回答我的問題。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

馬克‧德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

I was hoping to get a better sense of kind of where within Consumer Lending you're seeing the credit weakness and what's driving the reserve build. And it looks like the consolidation loan credit has been relatively stable, so it seems like it's the rest of the portfolio. Is the weakness mainly coming from kind of legacy private student loans? Or are you also seeing weakness in some of the more recent in-school loans that you've made?

我希望更了解您在消費信貸領域看到了哪些信貸疲軟現象，以及是什麼因素導致了準備金的增加。而且看起來合併貸款信貸相對穩定，所以問題似乎出在投資組合的其他部分。這種弱點主要源自於遺留的私人學生貸款嗎？或者，您也發現您最近申請的一些在校貸款有疲軟跡象？

Yeah. Hey, Mark. This is Dave. Thanks for the question. If you think back to the first part of my answer to Bill's question, the majority of what we're seeing is focused on the legacy portfolios that we have. That's why I went through the establishment of the CECL reserve, the conditions that have changed since then, and so that's where the majority of the provision expense has been. The other products, there have been some changes, but they're not as significant as the changes in the private legacy portfolio in particular.

是的。嘿，馬克。這是戴夫。謝謝你的提問。如果你回想一下我對比爾問題的回答的第一部分，我們看到的大部分情況都集中在我們現有的傳統投資組合上。這就是為什麼我要詳細解釋 CECL 準備金的建立、此後發生的變化，以及大部分撥備支出都集中於此的原因。其他產品也有一些變化，但這些變化不如私人傳承產品組合的變化那麼顯著。

Okay. And so just to clarify based on the comments you made, is it kind of your observation that the primary source of the weakness now is just kind of the end of some of the more extended forbearance options that they've been granted under -- on other loans that they hold? Is that what's kind of driving the weakness?

好的。所以，根據您剛才的評論，我想澄清一下，您認為目前這種疲軟態勢的主要來源，是不是因為他們之前獲得的一些較長時間的延期還款機會——針對他們持有的其他貸款——已經到期了？這就是導致這種弱點的原因嗎？

Yeah, that's certainly -- that's one part of it. There's a variety of factors, macroeconomic conditions that weaken part of our reserve increase, not a significant part is due to weakening of the Moody's economic forecast. That was a contributor to the second quarter as well.

是的，那當然是其中一部分。多種因素，包括宏觀經濟狀況，削弱了我們部分儲備增加，其中很大一部分是由於穆迪經濟預測的減弱所造成的。這也是第二季業績的促成因素。

But if you think about the primary source of the provision being the legacy portfolios, and that's why I go back to when we established the life of loan reserves, those are really -- I think we can all agree it was in a very different ecosystem for those loans than exist today as they've come through the pandemic. Part of the lower prepayment speeds, which we're seeing in both FFELP and in private legacy, loans that pay off don't default, right? So part of the reason we've tried to make sure that you see the relationship between the incremental cash flows from longer portfolios from slower repayment speeds.

但如果你想想撥備的主要來源是遺留貸款組合，這就是為什麼我要回顧我們當初設立貸款期限準備金的原因，這些貸款確實——我想我們都可以同意，它們當時所處的生態系統與如今經歷了疫情衝擊後的貸款生態系統截然不同。我們看到，無論是 FFELP 貸款還是私人傳統貸款，提前還款速度降低的部分原因在於，能夠償還的貸款不會違約，對吧？因此，我們努力確保您能夠看到較長投資組合的增量現金流與較慢的還款速度之間的關係，部分原因就在於此。

That's also a contributing factor to higher provision as well because higher average balance is outstanding, can create higher charge-offs as well. So there's a variety of factors that are at play here.

這也是導致撥備增加的因素，因為未償付的平均餘額越高，也可能導致更高的壞帳。所以這裡有很多因素在起作用。

Okay. And just wanted to get your comfort level with how conservative these revised assumptions are and what kind of risk, if any, is there to further negative revisions?

好的。我只是想了解您對這些修訂後的假設的保守程度的接受程度，以及是否存在進一步負面修訂的風險（如果有的話）？

Look, we're responding to what we're seeing with current trends, Mark. I'm not going to give a life of loan forecast for that. I think we feel we've done the appropriate thing here, obviously, to reflect what we're seeing in the portfolio today, and I'll just leave it at that.

馬克，你看，我們是根據當前趨勢做出反應的。我不會為了這個而放棄貸款預測的一生。我認為我們已經採取了適當的措施，顯然是為了反映我們今天在投資組合中看到的情況，我就說到這裡吧。

Okay, fair enough. Thanks for the comments.

好吧，這說得有道理。感謝大家的評論。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

I looked through the cash flow assumption changes and noticed that more than all of the increase comes in 2030 and beyond. And from 2026 to 2029, it's actually almost $200 million less than you had in Q2. What's the driver for that?

我查看了現金流假設的變化，發現大部分增長都發生在 2030 年及以後。從 2026 年到 2029 年，實際上比第二季少了近 2 億美元。其驅動因素為何？

The primary driver is the lowering of the prepayment speeds, Moshe, so if you think about the FFELP portfolio, we lowered our overall CPR from 5% to 3%, and that we have going until through 2028, and then again, increasing back to 5% more historical levels. So as a result, that impacts the cash flows that are coming in your earlier periods and increases those cash flows in the 2030 and out.

莫舍，主要驅動因素是降低預付款速度，所以如果你看看 FFELP 投資組合，我們將整體 CPR 從 5% 降至 3%，並且這項政策將持續到 2028 年，然後再次提高到 5% 的歷史水平。因此，這將影響您早期期間的現金流，並增加 2030 年及以後的現金流。

Similarly, on the private portfolio, we lowered on the legacy portion of our portfolio. We lowered our CPR speeds from 10% to 8%. So that's really the biggest driver of the movement from the earlier periods into the outer years.

同樣，在私人投資組合方面，我們降低了投資組合中傳統資產部分的比例。我們將心肺復甦速度從 10% 降低到 8%。所以，這才是推動早期時期轉變為晚期時期的最大因素。

And maybe if you've mentioned this already, I missed it and I apologize, but is there an ongoing impact on the private margin from that? You mentioned what the impact was in this quarter, but is there an ongoing impact on the margin from slower prepays?

如果您之前已經提到過這一點，我可能錯過了，我深表歉意，但這是否會對私人利潤率產生持續影響？您提到了本季受到的影響，但預付款放緩是否會對利潤率產生持續影響？

So we adjust for that every single quarter. So really, the biggest driver in terms of margin impact when you look back historically and what's, I'd say, lowered the margins overall is that as our balance has shifted more towards the refi portfolio from the legacy in-school loans that we originated, we typically have lower margins on the refi, albeit at much higher credit quality. And so that's the push on the margin in the recent years as that has become a higher percentage of our balance.

因此，我們每季都會進行調整。所以，回顧歷史，對利潤率影響最大的因素，也是我認為導致整體利潤率下降的原因，是我們的資產組合從我們之前發放的傳統在校貸款轉向了再融資貸款組合，雖然再融資貸款的信用質量要高得多，但我們的利潤率通常較低。因此，近年來邊際收益受到推動，因為它在我們資產負債表中所佔的比例越來越高。

But still, the margin going forward on the legacy book would be lower at a slower prepay rate, right?

但是，如果預付款速度放緩，那麼未來傳統貸款的利潤率也會降低，對嗎？

It really shouldn't impact it overall. I mean, you take that charge in the quarter and have the catch-up, assuming that the rate we have in place continues, there really shouldn't be much of an impact to the margin.

這應該不會對整體造成影響。我的意思是，假設我們目前的利率繼續維持下去，那麼在本季度提列這筆費用並進行補繳，對利潤率應該不會產生太大影響。

Got it. Okay. And then how do you think about capital needs, given the potential for significant asset growth if you have expanded plans for Earnest?

知道了。好的。那麼，考慮到 Earnest 的擴張計劃可能會帶來巨大的資產成長潛力，您如何看待資金需求？

Yeah. I think we feel very confident about our ability to finance rapid asset growth. We're doing that today. We've called out in the last two releases, not sure if you've seen our ABS issuances. I can't overstate how important that is to our outlook for this business and how we're comfortable with our ability to grow it in a much more, as I call it, fuel-efficient way, meaning less capital.

是的。我認為我們對自身為資產快速成長提供融資的能力非常有信心。我們今天就要做這件事。我們在最近兩份文件中都提到了這一點，不知道您是否看過我們發布的ABS文件。我無法強調這對我們公司的未來發展前景有多重要，以及我們有信心以一種我稱之為「更節能」的方式發展壯大公司，這意味著更少的資本投入。

We're achieving advanced rates in our most recent ABS securitizations that are higher than we have historically achieved, so we're getting a majority of the financing we need to originate those loans from the ABS market, therefore, requiring less equity, and other sources of risk capital that finance the loans. We've also got other avenues that we haven't exercised leverage before, like loan sales, et cetera. You combine what we're seeing in the ABS market with some of the flexibility that we think we have, and we're highly confident in our ability to finance higher levels of loan originations.

我們在最近的 ABS 證券化交易中獲得了比以往更高的利率，因此我們從 ABS 市場獲得了發放這些貸款所需的大部分融資，因此，我們需要的股權和其他風險資本來源就更少了。我們還有其他一些以前沒有利用過的途徑，例如出售貸款等等。結合我們在資產支持證券 (ABS) 市場看到的形勢，以及我們認為我們所擁有的靈活性，我們對能夠為更高水平的貸款發放提供融資充滿信心。

Just to follow up, I mean, is loan sales or are loan sales kind of a key part of the strategy? Is that something that you've got a program in place? or how do you think about that?

再補充一下，貸款銷售是這項策略的關鍵部分嗎？你們有相關的計劃嗎？或者你對此有何看法？

Yeah. I think I'm not going to preview our November presentation or our '26 plan at this point. We've historically been an opportunistic seller of loans. Again, I think we feel confident in our ability on a make-and-hold basis to continue to originate loans. Make-and-sell is an option we have, and it's good to have that flexibility.

是的。我覺得現在不宜透露我們11月的簡報或2026年的計畫。我們歷來都是機會主義的貸款出售者。再次重申，我認為我們有信心透過持續發放貸款的方式繼續擴大貸款規模。自行生產和銷售是我們的一種選擇，擁有這種彈性是件好事。

Great. We'll be listening on the 19th. Thanks.

偉大的。我們將於19日收聽。謝謝。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

Rick Shane，摩根大通。

Look, a long-standing part of the narrative is sort of the decline in the reserve rate due to consolidation loans and the relative loan quality. And if we look back consistently, the provision is that it will blow charge-offs on any given quarter in the private -- in the consumer book. Have we reached the inflection point? When you think about, for example, fourth-quarter guidance, does that assume that the reserve rate is now stabilized in the mid-250s? Or how should we think about that going forward?

你看，長期以來，這種說法的一部分是，由於合併貸款和相對貸款質量，準備金率有所下降。如果我們回顧過去，就會發現，這項規定允許在任何特定季度對私人（消費者）帳簿進行沖銷。我們是否已經到達轉折點？例如，在考慮第四季業績指引時，是否假設存款準備率目前穩定在 250% 左右？或者，我們接下來該如何看待這個問題？

The way I would think about it going forward is it's going to be a function of also new originations and what we're making. So as I said in my earlier response, for the refi originations, we're reserving at 1.5% in terms of life of loan loss assumptions. So for every dollar we're adding there, it's 1.5%, which would lower our overall allowance. So as that balance shifts, I would just imagine that that allowance would come down to more -- to reflect just a greater percentage of refi loans.

我認為，未來發展也將取決於新的創意和我們正在創造的東西。正如我先前回覆所說，對於再融資貸款，我們按照貸款期限損失假設計提 1.5% 的準備金。因此，我們每增加一美元，就會減少 1.5%，這將降低我們的總預算。因此，隨著這種平衡的改變，我估計該撥款將會減少——以反映再融資貸款比例的增加。

To the extent that we are -- we see an opportunity here, obviously, in the Grad PLUS market and Grad opportunity there, those loans typically are originated with life of loan loss assumptions closer to 6%, so that's the balance and the trade-off there. Otherwise, just in a naturally amortizing portfolio where we have life of loan loss expectations, I would imagine that that allowance would come down all else equal as the portfolio runs off.

就我們所看到的而言——顯然，我們在研究生PLUS市場和研究生市場看到了機會，這些貸款的貸款期限損失假設通常接近6%，所以這就是其中的平衡和權衡。否則，在一個自然攤銷的投資組合中，我們有貸款期限損失預期，我認為，在其他條件不變的情況下，隨著投資組合的到期，該準備金將會減少。

Got it. And just to be clear, and I don't know if I missed this or not, but you're suggesting that the reserve rate on the consolidation loans was not changed as of this increase that we saw today?

知道了。為了確認一下，我不知道我是否錯過了什麼，但您的意思是說，隨著今天我們看到的這次加息，合併貸款的準備金率並沒有改變嗎？

For new originations, no, it was not. So if you think about the refi portfolio, as Dave mentioned, very high credit quality, high earners, some of that we've seen in terms of our history there. And the early trends that we've seen over the last year have not given any indication that we would need to change that.

對新成立的公司來說，答案是否定的。所以，如果你考慮一下再融資組合，正如戴夫提到的那樣，信用質量非常高，收入也很高，我們在過去的業績中已經看到了一些這樣的情況。過去一年來的早期趨勢並沒有表明我們需要改變這種情況。

Wait, but does that suggest that on the older stuff, not the new originations, that the CECL rate on the consolidation loans did change?

等等，但這是否意味著，合併貸款的 CECL 利率確實發生了變化，而變化的對像是較早發放的貸款，而不是新發放的貸款？

So on the refi book, if you keep saying consolidation, so on the refi book, yes, we did take up our reserves on the refi originations, primarily as we looked at some of the back books and vintages that were four or five years old.

所以，關於再融資業務，如果你一直說整合，那麼關於再融資業務，是的，我們確實動用了再融資業務的儲備金，主要是因為我們查看了一些四五年前的舊賬簿和年份。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

Sanjay Sakhrani，KBW。

Just to follow up on some of the credit quality questions, just on this provision that you did take, the $151 million, how much of it was credit-related versus just the cash flows extending out because of lower payment speeds? I'm just curious on that.

關於信用品質方面的一些問題，我想就您提列的這筆 1.51 億美元的準備金進行後續討論，其中有多少是與信用相關的，又有多少僅僅是由於付款速度降低而導致的現金流延長？我只是對此感到好奇。

And then I guess just to follow up on that as well, it sounds like when I look at the slide, you guys -- every third quarter you sort of true up that number and look at the back book. I'm just curious, like what -- I understand like things have changed post-pandemic, but what changed between last year and this year? So was it just the repayment behaviors? Or did that change? I'm just curious what you think drove that because you would have thought the conditions post-pandemic have been fairly stable more recently than they were in some of the years sort of ensuing that. Thanks.

然後我想再補充一點，聽起來我看幻燈片的時候，你們——每到第三個季度，你們都會對這個數字進行一些調整，並查看之前的賬目。我只是好奇，例如──我知道疫情後情況發生了變化，但去年和今年之間究竟發生了哪些變化？所以問題僅僅出在還款行為嗎？或情況有所改變？我只是好奇你認為是什麼原因導致了這種情況，因為你可能會認為疫情後的情況最近幾年比疫情後的某些年份要穩定得多。謝謝。

Yeah, so thanks for the question, Sanjay. If you think about the narrative that I went through with Bill's question, the change in public policy, particularly around the FFELP loans, for example, is a new administration policy, right? Prior to the inauguration, the prior administration had a very proactive view of loan forgiveness, payment relief programs, et cetera. The new administration has not exhibited that same appetite for that and in fact has not proposed anything.

是的，謝謝你的提問，桑傑。如果你回顧我回答比爾的問題時所闡述的思路，你會發現公共政策的變化，特別是圍繞 FFELP 貸款的變化，是一項新的政府政策，對吧？在就職典禮之前，前政府對貸款減免、還款減免計畫等持非常正面的態度。新政府並未表現出同樣的意願，事實上也沒有提出任何相關方案。

And so we're three months -- three quarters, excuse me, into that new administration, and we've now, both for prepayment and default rates, looked at trends that we're seeing. When you see a trend that occurs over several quarters, we've appropriately stepped back and said, let's take a look at if we continue to see these trends, both on prepayment and default rates, here's the impact on life of loan cash flows. And then, of course, the accounting treatment for each one of those is very different. There's none of the future cash flows from extension that gets booked in the current quarter, and all of the provision expense gets booked in the current quarter.

因此，新政府上台已經三個月——抱歉，應該說三個季度了，現在我們已經觀察了預付款率和違約率的趨勢。當看到某種趨勢持續幾個季度時，我們會適當地退後一步，看看如果我們繼續看到這些趨勢（包括提前還款率和違約率），會對貸款現金流的生命週期產生什麼影響。當然，每項業務的會計處理方法也大不相同。延期產生的未來現金流量不會計入本季度，所有撥備費用都計入本季。

I think in terms of the -- I'm not going to try to attribute all the different factors here. We've laid them out. I think we could turn it into a World Series game of 18 innings. There's a lot of factors going on. The ones we've called out are really the impact of the -- everything that went on in the pandemic related to COVID relief, related to federal loan forgiveness, the macroeconomic conditions that we've seen.

我認為就此而言——我不會試圖把這裡所有的不同因素都歸因於此。我們已經把它們擺放好了。我認為我們可以把它打成一場18局的世界大賽。有很多因素在起作用。我們指出的這些影響，實際上是疫情期間所有與新冠疫情救濟、聯邦貸款豁免以及我們所看到的宏觀經濟狀況相關的一切的影響。

And again, this is a distinct portfolio for us, just given the age of this. The majority of the provision we're taking, again, is on loans that originated a decade or more ago. I think that's distinct from -- certainly from the loans that we're booking today, distinct from maybe other players that have a different story to tell this quarter.

再次強調，考慮到它的年代，這對我們來說是一個獨特的投資組合。我們再次提列的大部分準備金，都是針對十年前或更久以前發放的貸款。我認為這與——當然與我們今天確認的貸款不同，也可能與其他本季情況不同的球隊不同。

And of that $151 million, I mean, is there a breakdown of that? Like, how much of it is credit? How much of it is extension of duration?

那1.51億美元中，有詳細的明細嗎？其中有多少是信用額度？其中有多少是延長工期？

Yeah, I'm not going to -- there's so many factors involved. We don't have that attribution for that subject.

是的，我不會去──這其中牽涉到太多因素。我們沒有該主題的歸屬資訊。

Okay, got it. And then, like, this one last one on, so it seems like the delinquency rates aren't necessarily showing the same type of deterioration that the charge-offs are, so should we expect that severity of loss to -- like, so the roll rates to be higher on a go-forward basis? I'm just curious, Joe, as we think about where this all falls down.

好的，明白了。然後，就像最後一個例子一樣，拖欠率似乎並沒有像壞帳那樣出現同樣的惡化趨勢，那麼我們是否應該預期損失的嚴重程度——例如，未來的滾動率會更高？喬，我只是好奇，我們想想這一切最終會如何收場。

Yeah, they should be lower. So a big driver, obviously, is just the charge-offs in this quarter is the timing of those borrowers coming out of the various disaster relief programs and forbearances. So to your point, we're seeing early-stage delinquencies that are improving and late-stage delinquencies, for that matter, on the Consumer Lending side. So from that standpoint, we would expect lower charge-offs going forward, and we are seeing improving low rates.

是的，它們應該更低一些。因此，很明顯，本季的壞帳主要受各種災難救濟計畫和延期還款計畫的影響。所以正如您所說，我們看到消費貸款方面的早期違約情況正在改善，晚期違約情況也是如此。因此從這個角度來看，我們預計未來的壞帳率會降低，而且我們看到低利率正在改善。

Sorry, I have one more question. You hear a lot about high levels of unemployment among graduate students. I'm just curious if you guys are seeing anything in your portfolio or that you've accounted for any of that in this provision increase. Thanks.

不好意思，我還有一個問題。你常會聽到研究生失業率居高不下的消息。我只是好奇你們的投資組合中是否發現了任何相關情況，或者你們是否在這次撥備增加中考慮到了這些情況。謝謝。

No, we are not seeing that. Certainly, when you look at the originations that we've been making, we've been doing that since 2020. They've predominantly been to, I should say, more than half have been to graduate students, and we're just not seeing that in terms of those that have graduated here in their early term. There's not been the impact that you're seeing in the headlines.

不，我們沒有看到這種情況。當然，如果你看看我們一直在進行的原創項目，你會發現我們從 2020 年就開始這樣做了。應該說，他們主要接待了研究生，超過一半的接待對像是研究生，而對於在這裡早期畢業的學生，我們並沒有看到這種情況。並沒有像新聞報道中所描述的那樣產生如此大的影響。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

I apologize upfront. It's another question on the provision and just trying to understand the moving pieces. You mentioned the $155 million increase in provision in the Consumer segment. $17 million was due to new originations. Is there a way to break out the remaining $138 million between the macro policy changes and just higher delinquencies even?

我先在此致歉。這是關於供應方面的另一個問題，只是想了解其中的運作機制。您提到消費信貸業務的撥備增加了1.55億美元，其中1700萬美元是由於新增貸款造成的。有沒有辦法將剩餘的 1.38 億美元從宏觀政策變化中分離出來，再從更高的違約率中分離出來？

I guess we're just trying to understand the moving pieces, how much is coming from macro assumptions and policy assumptions changing, how much is coming from actual delinquency because the delinquencies don't -- the trends in delinquency, I think as some of the previous analysts also mentioned, don't seem that bad. I mean, I understand they're higher than earlier, so just trying to understand the moving pieces. Thank you.

我想我們只是試圖了解各種變化因素，有多少是由於宏觀假設和政策假設的變化造成的，有多少是由於實際的違約行為造成的，因為違約行為並沒有減少——我認為，正如一些之前的分析師也提到的那樣，違約趨勢似乎並沒有那麼糟糕。我的意思是，我知道它們比以前高了，所以只是想了解其中的變化。謝謝。

Yeah. Look, I appreciate the question. The macroeconomic condition piece this quarter is relatively small. The rest of it there is the trends we're seeing in the portfolio and our assumption and expectation that those trends are going to continue, again, go back to the narrative that I used to answer Bill's question up front. I think you really have to look at the private legacy portfolio, look at the establishment of the reserve back in 2020, think about the five years since then, see what we're seeing now. That's what we're responding to. There's a variety of factors on that very seasoned portfolio that we're responding to there. That's the majority of the story of the $151 million.

是的。我很感謝你的提問。本季宏觀經濟狀況部分相對較小。其餘部分是我們從投資組合中看到的趨勢，以及我們對這些趨勢將繼續下去的假設和預期，這又回到了我之前回答比爾的問題時所使用的敘述。我認為你真的應該看看私人遺產投資組合，看看2020年儲備金的建立，想想從那時到現在的五年，看看我們現在看到了什麼。這就是我們所要回應的。我們正在應對這個經驗豐富的投資組合中的各種因素。這就是1.51億美元故事的大部分內容。

Okay. And then maybe just on the refinance side, as you've had some more time to digest some of the changes that are going on on the graduate side, so maybe just a question both on the in-school opportunity for new loans and then just on the refinance side even. Is there something for us to be thinking about with all the policy changes going on there, where there could be some type of refinance benefit also?

好的。然後，也許可以就再融資方面提問，因為您已經有更多的時間來消化研究生方面正在發生的一些變化，所以也許可以問一些關於在校期間獲得新貸款的機會以及再融資方面的問題。鑑於地方正在進行的各項政策變化，我們是否應該考慮是否存在某種再融資方面的好處？

Yeah, so thanks for the question. Yeah, we do -- well, you're seeing in our results today, I think, the opportunity in refi and our ability to capitalize on it. I mentioned at last quarter's release, one of the things that, again, not to keep going back to 2020, but prior to the pandemic, our refi originations were roughly 50% coming from federal loan borrowers.

是的，謝謝你的提問。是的，我們確實做到了——我想，您今天從我們的業績中可以看到，再融資領域存在著機遇，而我們有能力抓住這個機會。我在上個季度的報告中提到過，雖然不想總是回顧 2020 年，但在疫情爆發之前，我們的再融資貸款發放量大約有 50% 來自聯邦貸款借款人。

Then during the pandemic period, which also coincided with a period of higher benchmark interest rates and volumes lower, roughly 20% of our refi origination volume was coming from federal loan borrowers. In the first half of the year, roughly 40% of our borrowers were coming from consolidating out of federal loans, and this quarter, 50% were consolidating out of federal loans.

隨後在疫情期間，恰逢基準利率上升、交易量下降，我們約 20% 的再融資業務量來自聯邦貸款借款人。今年上半年，我們約有 40% 的借款人是透過合併聯邦貸款而來的；而本季度，這一比例上升至 50%。

So the impact of federal public policy, federal loan public policy on payment relief programs, et cetera, has made the federal loan value proposition to borrowers less attractive than it once was. And therefore, the private loan, the refi loan, is becoming more attractive. We think that's what's driving a part of the increase in the growth in refi that we're seeing. We would expect that to continue. Lower benchmark interest rates only further increase the addressable market there.

因此，聯邦公共政策、聯邦貸款公共政策對支付救濟計畫等的影響，使得聯邦貸款對借款人的價值主張不如以前那麼有吸引力了。因此，私人貸款、再融資貸款變得越來越有吸引力。我們認為，這正是推動我們所看到的再融資成長的部分原因。我們預計這種情況還會持續。基準利率走低只會進一步擴大該地區的潛在市場。

If you look at the interest rates on federal loans, I think there's over [$100 billion] of federal loans originated in the last six years that have above 7% coupon. That's a significant and substantial opportunity, not all of which meets our targeted customer base, but the refi opportunity is significant and substantial.

如果你看聯邦貸款的利率，我認為過去六年發放的聯邦貸款中，有超過 1000 億美元的貸款的票面利率高於 7%。這是一個意義重大且相當可觀的機會，雖然並非所有機會都符合我們的目標客戶群，但再融資機會意義重大且相當可觀。

The Grad PLUS piece is still -- I don't think anyone knows for sure what that's going to look like. We feel confident in our ability, demonstrated this quarter again, to attract high credit quality, high-balance borrowers, predominantly graduate students. And so when those students present themselves and are looking for a gap to help finance their education, we're confident in our ability to meet them, meet their needs, and exceed their expectations.

Grad PLUS 部分目前還不好說——我覺得沒人能確定它最終會是什麼樣子。我們有信心，本季再次證明了我們有能力吸引信用品質高、貸款額度高的借款人，其中大部分是研究生。因此，當這些學生前來尋求幫助以彌補教育資金缺口時，我們有信心滿足他們的需求，並超越他們的期望。

Understood. Thank you for taking my questions.

明白了。謝謝您回答我的問題。

Ryan Shelley, Bank of America.

Ryan Shelley，美國銀行。

Most of mine have been answered. I just wanted to ask about your outlook on competition going forward. So obviously, with changes to federal policy, it sounds like there's going to be more greenfield. I know you just said it's hard to exactly size that, but big picture, it sounds like there will be more opportunity. How do you see that changing the competitive landscape and any commentary around what you're doing to prepare yourself to more effectively compete? Thank you.

我的大部分問題都已得到解答。我只是想問您對未來競爭狀況的看法。顯然，隨著聯邦政策的變化，似乎會有更多新的開發領域出現。我知道你剛才說過很難準確衡量，但從整體來看，聽起來機會會更多。您認為這種改變會如何改變競爭格局？您對於為更有效參與競爭所做的準備有什麼看法？謝謝。

Ryan, I think that we've done a good job in terms of our entrance into the market over the last several years here. We positioned ourselves very well to take advantage of the opportunity. When we look at our competition as it relates to new in-school graduate loan originations, just looking at public data, we're roughly over $200 million in terms of graduate originations when you look at last year. We estimated that market to be between $1 billion and $1.4 billion.

瑞恩，我認為過去幾年我們在進入市場方面做得很好。我們已做好充分準備，抓住了這一機遇。當我們審視我們在校畢業生貸款發放的競爭對手時，僅從公開數據來看，去年我們的畢業生貸款發放約 2 億美元。我們估計該市場規模在 10 億美元至 14 億美元之間。

If you look at some of our competitors and what they suggest is the market that's fairly consistent. So roughly a 20% market share there, and I think that the product suite that we offer is very attractive. In the early stages of what we've seen here and just really with some of the reforms that have taken place, we've had a number of financial aid offices reach out. We've been able to add in terms of the percentage of the top 200 schools that we participate in over the last two quarters here, so, call it, an additional 9% to 10% increase there.

如果你看看我們的一些競爭對手，你會發現他們的市場策略相當穩定。因此，我們在那裡的市場份額大約為 20%，我認為我們提供的產品組合非常有吸引力。在我們目前所看到的早期階段，以及一些已經進行的改革中，許多助學金辦公室都與我們聯繫了。在過去的兩個季度裡，我們參與的排名前 200 名的學校的比例增加了 9% 到 10%。

So certainly, we're taking advantage of the opportunity here that's in front of us. And the normal competitors in that place are obviously the largest player in the market. We'll still have a significant share there. We haven't yet seen new entrants that have made a significant impact.

所以，我們當然要把握眼前的機會。而該領域的普通競爭對手顯然是市場上最大的企業。我們仍將在那裡佔有相當大的份額。我們還沒有看到產生重大影響的新進入者。

And on the refi side, there's a significant opportunity for growth there as obviously rates fall. That's predominantly just us and one other larger competitor in the market. We don't see other players stepping in yet to what we did five years ago, where there were more diverse players in the refi space. So today, I'd say it's really a two-person race in terms of refi originations, and we're not seeing any changes in really outsized coupons that are changing or pressure on rates that are being charged to borrowers at this stage. So we feel good about where we are, and we're all positioned for all 2026.

而在再融資方面，由於利率明顯下降，存在著巨大的成長機會。市場上主要只有我們和另一家規模更大的競爭對手。我們還沒有看到其他參與者像我們五年前那樣進入再融資領域，當時再融資領域有更多不同類型的參與者。所以今天，我認為在再融資發放方面，實際上是兩人之間的競爭，而且我們目前還沒有看到任何超大額息票發生變化，也沒有看到借款人面臨的利率壓力。所以我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，我們已經為2026年做好了充分準備。

Got it. Very comprehensive. Thank you.

知道了。非常全面。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

（操作說明）傑夫·阿德爾森，摩根士丹利。

I know it's already been asked already, but just in terms of the potential Grad PLUS opportunity here, is there any more work you've done over the past quarter to try to better sort of ring-fence the opportunity here, what your work has shown you? And I think one of your competitors has been out there on the in-school side, talking about a $4 billion to $5 billion opportunity annually. Does that seem maybe in the ballpark for you? Or are there any maybe differences in how you would think about that? Or should we be maybe expecting something on this November update around sort of market size opportunity there? Thanks.

我知道這個問題之前已經有人問過了，但就這裡潛在的 Grad PLUS 機會而言，在過去的一個季度裡，您是否做了更多工作來更好地把握這個機會，您的工作向您展示了什麼？我認為你們的某個競爭對手一直在學校教育領域大談特談，認為每年有 40 億到 50 億美元的商機。你覺得這個價格差不多嗎？或者，當您在考慮這個問題時，是否會有其他不同的看法？或者我們應該期待在11月份的更新中看到一些關於市場規模機會的資訊？謝謝。

So I would think of it as the market share today is $1 billion and $1.4 billion in terms of what the graduate market represents for private players. I would say Grad PLUS as a total is a $14 billion market. So I don't view that as just one-for-one replacement that you're adding $14 billion. I know one of our competitors has said $4 billion to $5 billion is the expansion. Another one of our competitors has quoted as closer to $10 billion. So from us, we certainly think there's going to be a level of multiples of expansion there, and we're excited about the opportunity, and that's where I'd (inaudible).

所以我認為，就私人企業而言，研究生市場目前的市佔率為 10 億至 14 億美元。我認為研究生及以上學歷市場總規模為 140 億美元。所以我不認為這只是簡單地用 140 億美元來取代原來的 140 億美元。我知道我們的一位競爭對手錶示，擴張需要 40 億至 50 億美元。我們的另一位競爭對手給出的報價接近 100 億美元。因此，我們認為這裡肯定存在著數倍的成長空間，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮，而這正是我認為…（聽不清楚）

Okay, thanks. That's helpful. And then just on the refi side, I think you had said you're about 50% is now, as of this quarter, coming back from the government refi side of things, more in line with pre-COVID. Do you think there's an opportunity for that to expand even further above even where pre-COVID was, just as sort of rates fall from here and the government policy on forgiveness and repayment plans after next year is going to get a little bit worse?

好的，謝謝。那很有幫助。至於再融資方面，我想您之前說過，從本季開始，政府再融資方面大約有 50% 已經恢復到 COVID-19 疫情前的水平。你認為隨著利率從目前水準下降，以及政府在明年之後的貸款減免和還款計畫政策會略有惡化，這種情況是否有機會進一步擴大到新冠疫情前的水準？

Absolutely, I think there's opportunities when you think about just the rate environment here. So I'll just use one example. If I look at the Grad PLUS program, going back the last 14 years, there's only been one instance where the rates that are reset every single year has been below 6%. And if you look at the last four years, those rates have been at 7.5% higher, and just two years ago, it was at 9%.

當然，我認為單從目前的利率環境來看，就存在著很多機會。我就舉個例子吧。如果我回顧過去 14 年的 Grad PLUS 計劃，只有一次每年重置的利率低於 6%。如果你看看過去四年，這些比率已經高出 7.5%，而就在兩年前，這個比率還高達 9%。

So as rates fall here, I think there's a tremendous opportunity when you think of the volume of high-quality borrowers that have attended and graduated with a graduate degree. I think it's a great opportunity in front of us to increase that percentage and ultimately increase the volume.

因此，隨著利率下降，我認為這是一個巨大的機會，因為有大量的高品質借款人已經獲得了研究生學位。我認為我們面前有一個絕佳的機會來提高這個比例，並最終提高銷售量。

You don't have to go that far back to see just very high-level volumes from us. Back in 2021, we were close to $6 billion in terms of originations. So I think it's really going to be rate-driven, and we'll have to see what happens here in the next couple quarters.

你不必追溯到那麼久遠的過去，就能看到我們非常高的交易量。2021年，我們的貸款發放金額接近60億美元。所以我認為這真的將取決於利率，我們必須看看未來幾季會發生什麼。

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

好的。謝謝您回答我的問題。

And there are no further questions on the line at this time. I'll turn the program back to Navient's CEO, David Yowan, for any additional or closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題需要提問。我將把發言權交還給 Navient 的執行長 David Yowan，請他作補充或總結發言。

Yeah, thank you, and thanks for joining today. Before we close, I'd just like to put into context this quarter's results the way that we see it. And I'd actually call your attention to slide 3 in our slide package. We've included this slide for eight or nine quarters now. There's four elements to it that we're attempting to deliver on. I'll just go through them.

是的，謝謝，也感謝您今天參加。在結束之前，我想就我們看待本季業績的角度，做一些背景說明。我建議您注意一下我們投影片資料包中的第 3 張投影片。我們已經連續八到九個季度都使用了這張投影片。我們正在努力實現其中的四個要素。我這就逐條檢查。

One, maximize the cash flows from our loan portfolios. Based on the trends that we're seeing today that we have recorded and put into our life of loan cash flow assumptions, those combine to have a $195 million increase in the life of loan cash flows that we saw.

第一，最大化貸款組合的現金流。根據我們目前觀察到的趨勢，以及我們記錄並納入貸款生命週期現金流假設的情況，這些趨勢加起來導致我們看到的貸款生命週期現金流增加了 1.95 億美元。

The second thing we said we'd deliver on was enhance the value of our growth businesses. For the third straight quarter, we've doubled our origination volume from prior quarters. We had our highest peak season in in-school lending in our history. Credit quality is exceptionally high. Customer satisfaction remains very high. And so we're positioning ourselves for further growth in market and product opportunities, continuously simplify the business and increase efficiency.

我們承諾要兌現的第二件事是提升我們成長型業務的價值。連續第三個季度，我們的貸款發放量比前幾個季度翻了一番。我們迎來了校內貸款業務史上最高的旺季。信用品質極高。客戶滿意度依然非常高。因此，我們正在為進一步拓展市場和產品機會做好準備，不斷簡化業務並提高效率。

And call your attention to slide 11, where operating expenses this quarter are roughly 55% of what they were just in the year-ago quarter. And we've identified within the amounts we incurred this quarter, $14 million of expenses that we know are going to go away. We're in the process of getting rid of those. That would bring our operating expenses down to less than half the level they were a year ago. And we're committed to continue to look for ways to be more efficient.

請注意第 11 頁投影片，其中顯示本季的營運費用約為去年同期的 55%。我們已經確定，在本季發生的支出中，有 1,400 萬美元的支出將會消失。我們正在逐步清除這些設備。這將使我們的營運費用降至一年前水準的一半以下。我們將繼續致力於尋找提高效率的方法。

And then, fourthly, maintain a strong balance sheet and distribute excess capital. We have an adjusted tangible equity ratio of 9.3%, which remains above our long-term average. And we were able to grow loans at the levels we grew at and still distribute $42 million worth of capital for our shareholders.

第四，保持穩健的資產負債表並分配剩餘資本。我們調整後的有形權益比率為 9.3%，高於我們的長期平均值。我們得以在維持貸款成長速度的同時，仍向股東分配了價值 4,200 萬美元的資金。

So we feel like this quarter is a great example of our ability to check all four of those boxes in a very meaningful way. And I hope you can see our results in that same context. Appreciate your time and attention. We look forward to speaking to you in November.

因此，我們認為本季很好地體現了我們有能力以非常有意義的方式滿足這四個條件。我希望你們也能在同樣的背景下看待我們的研究結果。感謝您的時間和關注。我們期待在11月與您聯繫。

Thanks for joining today's call. Oh, sorry, David.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。哦，對不起，大衛。

Go right ahead, Jen.

請便，珍。

I was just going to offer, anybody whose question we didn't get to, please contact me after the call. Happy to have some more conversations. And thank you, David.

我本來想說，如果有什麼問題我們來不及解答，請在通話結束後聯絡我。很樂意繼續交流。謝謝你，大衛。

Absolutely. Thank you all for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

絕對地。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。