Duckhorn Portfolio Inc (NAPA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining today's Duckhorn Portfolio Q3 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Tamira, and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，午安。感謝您參加今天的 Duckhorn Portfolio 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫塔米拉 (Tamira)，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。（操作員指示）

I would now like to pass the call over to Ben Avenia-Tapper, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Ben Avenia-Tapper。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Duckhorn Portfolio's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me on today's call are Deirdre Mahlan, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairperson; Jennifer Fall Jung, Chief Financial Officer; and Sean Sullivan, Chief Strategy and Legal Officer.

下午好，歡迎參加 Duckhorn Portfolio 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的還有總裁、執行長兼董事長 Deirdre Mahlan； Jennifer Fall Jung，財務長；以及首席策略和法律長 Sean Sullivan。

In a moment, we will give brief remarks followed by the Q&A. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release for the third quarter ended April 30, 2024, that went out at approximately 4:05 PM Eastern time. The press release and an accompanying presentation are accessible on the company's website at ir@duckhorn.com, and shortly after the conclusion of today's call, a webcast will be archived for the next 30 days.

稍後我們將進行簡短發言，然後進行問答。到目前為止，每個人都應該可以看到截至 2024 年 4 月 30 日的第三季財報報告，該報告於東部時間下午 4 點左右發布。新聞稿和隨附的簡報可透過公司網站 ir@duckhorn.com 查閱，今天的電話會議結束後不久，網路直播將在接下來的 30 天記憶體。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and as such includes risks and uncertainties. If you refer to Duckhorn's earnings release, earnings presentation, and the company's most recent SEC filings, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please remember the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements in the future.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的討論包含基於我們當前所見環境的前瞻性陳述，因此包含風險和不確定性。如果您參考 Duckhorn 的收益報告、收益介紹以及公司最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，您將看到有關可能導致公司實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的討論。請記住，本公司不承擔將來更新或修改這些前瞻性聲明的義務。

I also note that the Duckhorn Portfolio's balance sheet as of April 30, 2024, reflects the assets acquired in the Sonoma-Cutrer acquisition. However, because the closing occurred on the last day of the quarter, the income statement does not include Sonoma-Cutrer results in the third quarter.

我還注意到，截至 2024 年 4 月 30 日的 Duckhorn Portfolio 資產負債表反映了 Sonoma-Cutrer 收購中獲得的資產。然而，由於交易發生在季度最後一天，因此損益表不包括第三季的 Sonoma-Cutrer 業績。

We will make a number of references to non-GAAP financial measures. We believe that these measures provide investors with useful perspective on the underlying growth trends of the business and have included in our earnings release, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures.

我們將多次參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們相信，這些指標為投資者提供了了解業務潛在成長趨勢的有用視角，並在我們的收益報告中納入了非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的全面對帳。

In addition, please note that all retail scanner data cited on today's call is according to the Circana and will refer to dollar or unit consumption for the 12-week period ended April 28, 2024, and growth versus the same period in the prior year in US tracked channels unless otherwise noted.

此外，請注意，今天電話會議上引用的所有零售掃描儀數據均來自 Circana，並將指截至 2024 年 4 月 28 日的 12 週期間的美元或單位消費量，以及與去年同期相比在美國跟踪渠道的增長，除非另有說明。

With that, I will turn the call over to Deirdre.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給 Deirdre。

Thanks, Ben, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today to discuss our third-quarter 2024 financial performance. Following my opening remarks, Jennifer will walk us through our quarterly results and updated 2024 financial guidance.

謝謝，本，大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們討論我們的 2024 年第三季財務表現。在我的開場白之後，珍妮佛將向我們介紹我們的季度業績和更新的 2024 年財務指引。

I'm pleased to be here for my first earnings call since accepting the CEO role. I began my work with Duckhorn three years ago as a Board member after a 30-year career in beverage alcohol and a long-held passion for the consumer goods sector.

我很高興能夠在這裡參加自擔任執行長以來的第一次財報電話會議。我在酒精飲料行業工作了 30 年，並且長期熱衷於消費品行業，三年前，我開始以董事會成員的身份在 Duckhorn 工作。

When I took on the interim CEO role last September, I expected it to be temporary. Since that time, I've had the opportunity to engage with every aspect of the business -- meeting with our brand and commercial teams visiting the wineries and tasting room -- and it is clear to me that this is a strong and well-positioned business with ample opportunity for profitable growth and a talented and committed team.

去年九月，當我擔任臨時執行長一職時，我以為這只是暫時的。從那時起，我有機會接觸到該業務的各個方面——與我們的品牌和商業團隊會面，參觀釀酒廠和品酒室——我很清楚，這是一家強大且定位良好的企業，擁有充足的盈利增長機會和一支才華橫溢、盡職盡責的團隊。

When the Board asked me again to consider if I would stay long term, I couldn't resist. I am delighted to be serving in the role and energized by what lies ahead Duckhorn.

當董事會再次詢問我是否願意長期留下來時，我無法拒絕。我很高興能擔任這個職務，並對達克霍恩的未來充滿信心。

I'll turn now to our business and the broader industry. Although the market conditions remain challenging across the wine sector and are impacting our performance in fiscal 2024, I see significant potential for Duckhorn's business. This potential is rooted in the substantial progress we have achieved with respect to key business initiatives, including the close and integration of the Sonoma-Cutrer acquisition and the comprehensive realignment of our wholesale distribution network, both of which, we believe, set us up for our next phase of growth.

現在我將談談我們的業務和更廣泛的行業。儘管整個葡萄酒產業的市場環境依然充滿挑戰，並影響著我們 2024 財年的業績，但我認為 Duckhorn 的業務具有巨大的潛力。這種潛力源於我們在關鍵業務舉措方面取得的實質進展，包括 Sonoma-Cutrer 收購的完成和整合以及批發分銷網絡的全面調整，我們相信這兩項舉措都為我們下一階段的增長奠定了基礎。

Before sharing an update on my immediate priorities and our near-term initiatives, I'll provide some perspective on industry trends and our third-quarter results. The trade environment remains pressured due to soft consumer demand. While we had expected the industry to grow low single digits in Q3, consumer data for luxury wine, as measured by Circana, was down 1% in the quarter, a reversal from previous quarters.

在分享我的當前優先事項和近期舉措的最新情況之前，我將對行業趨勢和我們的第三季業績提供一些看法。由於消費需求疲軟，貿易環境仍面臨壓力。儘管我們預計該行業在第三季將實現低個位數成長，但根據 Circana 的測量，本季高檔葡萄酒的消費者數據下降了 1%，與前幾季的情況相反。

Our business continued to outperform the market in the period, which speaks to the enduring strength of our brand. Importantly, we have accomplished this outperformance while remaining focused on operating efficiency and careful cost management. The combination of ongoing industry headwinds and softer-than-anticipated response to our Kosta Browne Appellation series offering created top-line pressure in Q3.

在此期間，我們的業務繼續跑贏市場，證明了我們品牌的持久實力。重要的是，我們在實現這一優異業績的同時，仍然注重營運效率和謹慎的成本管理。持續的產業逆風和我們 Kosta Browne Appellation 系列產品的反應弱於預期，給第三季度帶來了營收壓力。

While net sales came in at $92.5 million, strong gross margins and expense control drove adjusted EBITDA of $37.7 million, a 40.8% margin. We are watching industry trends closely and continue to see a consumer preference for premiumization within wine, where demand in the $15 to $20 category and to an even greater degree, $20 to $25 per bottle category continues to meaningfully outperform the wine below $15 per bottle category.

雖然淨銷售額達到 9,250 萬美元，但強勁的毛利率和費用控制推動調整後的 EBITDA 達到 3,770 萬美元，利潤率為 40.8%。我們正密切關注行業趨勢，並繼續看到消費者對葡萄酒的高端化偏好，其中每瓶 15 至 20 美元的葡萄酒需求，甚至更高，每瓶 20 至 25 美元的葡萄酒需求繼續明顯超過每瓶 15 美元以下的葡萄酒。

I'll now share some additional details on what drove our results in the quarter. I'll start with the wholesale channel which represents about 85% of our business. Here, purchasing patterns by retailers have had a meaningful impact on the business. As a reminder, last quarter, we outlined three primary growth drivers for the second half: first, innovation with new products like our lower in calorie, lower in alcohol Decoy Featherweight Sauvignon Blanc; second, greater availability of our high-demand products, including Duckhorn Chardonnay; and third, increased programming, particularly with the relaunch of our by-the-glass, on-premise programs.

現在，我將分享一些有關推動我們本季業績的更多細節。我先從批發管道開始，它占我們業務的 85% 左右。在這裡，零售商的購買模式對業務產生了重大影響。提醒一下，上個季度，我們概述了下半年的三個主要成長動力：首先，創新新產品，例如低卡路里、低酒精的 Decoy Featherweight Sauvignon Blanc；第二，我們的高需求產品（包括 Duckhorn Chardonnay）的供應量增加；第三，增加了節目內容，特別是重新推出了按杯供應的現場節目。

While some of these initiatives are gaining traction, current market dynamics are impacting the results. I'll take you through them individually. Starting with innovation, while it's still early, I'm pleased to tell you that our most recent product introductions have been well received. For those of you who have had a chance to drive Decoy Featherweight Sauvignon Blanc, I think you'll agree it's a truly great wine that holds up from a quality perspective, not only to other low-health options, but to the rest of our portfolio.

雖然其中一些舉措正在獲得關注，但當前的市場動態正在影響結果。我將逐一帶您了解它們。從創新開始，雖然還為時過早，但我很高興地告訴大家，我們最近推出的產品受到了廣泛好評。對於那些有機會品嚐 Decoy Featherweight Sauvignon Blanc 的人來說，我想你們會同意這是一款真正優質的葡萄酒，從品質的角度來看，它不僅能與其他低健康選擇相媲美，還能與我們產品組合中的其他產品相媲美。

Following this early spring release, Decoys Featherweight is already the eighth largest label across all domestic luxury Sauvignon Blanc brands according to the most recent four weeks Circana data. Duckhorn Portfolio wines now occupies 3 of the top 10 spots on the domestic luxury Sauvignon Blanc leader chart.

根據最近四周的 Circana 數據，繼早春發布之後，Decoys Featherweight 已成為所有國內奢侈長相思品牌中第八大品牌。Duckhorn Portfolio 葡萄酒目前佔據國內高檔長相思葡萄酒排行榜前 10 名中的 3 個席位。

Also of note, the reorder rate has exceeded our expectations based on past product launches, which is one of the first signs of traction for a new release. And we're similarly excited about our soon to be launched Decoy Limited Paso Robles Cabernet Sauvignon. Both of these initiatives are in the early days, but we are very encouraged by the initial feedback we've received from wholesalers and consumers alike.

還值得注意的是，重新訂購率已經超出了我們根據過去產品發布情況所預期的水平，這是新產品發布受到追捧的首批跡象之一。我們同樣對即將推出的 Decoy Limited Paso Robles Cabernet Sauvignon 感到興奮。這兩項舉措都還處於早期階段，但我們對來自批發商和消費者的初步回饋感到非常鼓舞。

Looking at our second initiative, greater availability of key wine including Duckhorn Chardonnay and Decoy Limited Merlot; results have been mixed. While Duckhorn Chardonnay saw a strong double-digit growth in net sales, the Decoy Limited Merlot didn't generate the year-over-year in-quarter growth in shipments we anticipated. Although we are encouraged by the consumer demand, as represented by Circana, which has been very strong.

看看我們的第二項舉措，增加主要葡萄酒的供應，包括 Duckhorn Chardonnay 和 Decoy Limited Merlot；結果好壞參半。雖然 Duckhorn Chardonnay 的淨銷售額實現了強勁的兩位數成長，但 Decoy Limited Merlot 的季度出貨量卻沒有實現我們預期的同比增長。儘管我們對以 Circana 為代表的消費者需求感到鼓舞，其需求一直非常強勁。

Finally, our third initiative, increased programming, has been most notably impacted by broader industry trends. Specifically, we've seen slower uptake of our by-the-glass program. Across the industry, on-premise sales dipped in Q3 according to distributor data. The industry has seen some improvements since the lows of February and March, and our results continued to outperform the market in both on- and off-premise. However, we now expect these programs to constitute a smaller contribution to second-half net sales than we previously anticipated.

最後，我們的第三項舉措，即增加編程，受到了更廣泛的行業趨勢的最顯著影響。具體來說，我們發現按杯計價計劃的接受度有所下降。根據分銷商的數據，整個產業第三季的店內銷售額均有所下降。自二月和三月的低谷以來，該行業已經出現了一些改善，我們的業績在場內和場外繼續優於市場。然而，我們現在預計這些項目對下半年淨銷售額的貢獻將比我們之前預期的要小。

On the direct-to-consumer side, we're continuing to refine our club and visitation model to accommodate shifting consumer behavior. While visitor volume is down across the industry, spend per visitor at our tasting rooms remains strong. In fact, the number one selling label at our Duckhorn Vineyards tasting room is the Discussion, the pinnacle label of the Duckhorn Vineyard's winery brand, which sells for nearly twice the price of our vineyard designate red wine.

在直接面向消費者方面，我們正在繼續改進我們的俱樂部和訪問模式，以適應不斷變化的消費者行為。儘管整個行業的遊客數量都在下降，但我們品酒室的每位遊客的消費額仍然很高。事實上，我們 Duckhorn Vineyards 品酒室最暢銷的酒標是 Discussion，這是 Duckhorn Vineyard 酒莊品牌的巔峰之作，其售價幾乎是我們葡萄園指定紅葡萄酒的兩倍。

Tasting room visits represent an important conversion opportunity for our wine clubs. And we're highly focused on this channel with initiatives like multi-tier visitation opportunities, including elevated tasting experiences.

品酒室參觀對我們的葡萄酒俱樂部來說是一個重要的轉變機會。我們高度重視這項管道，推出了多層次的參觀機會等舉措，包括提升品嚐體驗。

As we previously communicated, Kosta Browne has underperformed our expectations in its most recent releases, and we continue to see evolving consumer preferences and purchasing behavior. We are diagnosing performance trends and developing an action plan to drive improved results and greater consumer resonance for one of the most beloved and well-respected winery brands in our portfolio.

正如我們之前所說，Kosta Browne 在最近發布的產品中表現不如我們的預期，我們繼續看到消費者偏好和購買行為的不斷變化。我們正在診斷績效趨勢並制定行動計劃，以推動我們投資組合中最受歡迎和最受尊敬的葡萄酒品牌之一的業績改善和消費者的更大共鳴。

As we approach the end of our fiscal year, our immediate priorities, including the successful integration of Sonoma-Cutrer and the completion of our wholesale distributor network realignment. We closed the Sonoma-Cutrer transaction on April 30, and we're receiving and shipping orders for these wines the following day, thanks to a carefully planned integration and the efforts of our integration teams who effectively manage a complex set of processes to achieve the seamless cutover.

隨著財政年度接近尾聲，我們的當務之急包括成功整合 Sonoma-Cutrer 以及完成批發分銷商網絡的重新調整。我們於 4 月 30 日完成了 Sonoma-Cutrer 交易，第二天我們就收到並運送這些葡萄酒的訂單，這要歸功於精心策劃的整合以及我們的整合團隊的努力，他們有效地管理了一套複雜的流程以實現無縫切換。

We initially forecast approximately $5 million in cost synergies from the acquisition, a number that we now expect to be up to $10 million of cost synergies. Further, Sonoma-Cutrer continues to be one of the fastest growing luxury wines across all varietals, outpacing the luxury wine market by more than 700 basis points in the current 12-weeks Circana data.

我們最初預測此次收購將帶來約 500 萬美元的成本綜效，現在我們預計這一數字將達到 1,000 萬美元。此外，索諾瑪-卡特雷爾繼續成為所有品種中成長最快的奢華葡萄酒之一，根據目前 12 週的 Circana 數據，其成長速度比奢華葡萄酒市場高出 700 多個基點。

The complementary nature of the Chardonnay-led winery brand within our broader portfolio architecture will allow us to capitalize on incremental accounts and labels per account. We see significant opportunity to build upon Sonoma-Cutrer's strong existing growth.

在我們更廣泛的產品組合架構中，以夏多內為主導的酒莊品牌具有互補性，這將使我們能夠利用每個帳戶的增量帳戶和標籤。我們看到了在索諾瑪-卡特勒現有強勁成長基礎上進一步發展的重大機會。

The second key priority is our recently announced distributor network realignment. This is something I've prioritized since I began serving as interim CEO last September as I believe it's a critical element of any supplier operating at the scale Duckhorn has achieved. These changes, which include a comprehensive strategic evaluation and realignment of our wholesale distribution network across the US will help fuel increased focus and investment in the Duckhorn Portfolio of brands from our distributors.

第二個關鍵優先事項是我們最近宣布的經銷商網路調整。自從去年九月我開始擔任臨時執行長以來，我一直將此放在首位，因為我相信這是任何以 Duckhorn 所達到的規模運營的供應商的關鍵要素。這些變化包括對我們在美國各地的批發分銷網絡進行全面的策略評估和重新調整，這將有助於推動我們的經銷商對 Duckhorn 品牌組合的更多關注和投資。

The transition to the new network as already begun. And while we anticipate some unevenness in the phasing of shipments and depletions over the next two quarters, we expect these fluctuations to be short term and far outweighed by the longer-term benefit of improved execution and growth.

向新網路的過渡已經開始。雖然我們預計未來兩個季度的出貨和消耗階段會出現一些不均衡，但我們預計這些波動將是短期的，並且遠低於執行力和成長改善的長期利益。

As we continue to navigate the dynamic environment, we remain focused on sharp execution across the business. We have a world-class portfolio of winery brands, a talented team and an unwavering commitment to operational excellence that has allowed us to consistently outperform the industry. While market softness is impacting our fourth-quarter outlook, we do expect organic top-line trends in the wholesale channel to improve in the fourth quarter relative to our year-to-date performance.

當我們繼續應對動態環境時，我們仍然專注於整個業務的精準執行。我們擁有世界一流的葡萄酒品牌組合、一支才華橫溢的團隊以及對卓越營運的堅定承諾，這使我們能夠始終超越行業表現。雖然市場疲軟影響了我們對第四季的展望，但我們預計第四季度批發通路的有機營收趨勢將相對於今年迄今的業績有所改善。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jennifer to provide more details on the financial results for the quarter and our outlook for the year.

接下來，我將把時間交給詹妮弗，讓她提供有關本季財務業績和年度展望的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Deirdre, and good afternoon, everyone. Q3 saw us deliver another quarter of strong profitability despite the pressure on top-line results. Strong gross margins and active operating expense management enabled us to deliver robust adjusted EBITDA margins in the quarter.

謝謝你，迪爾德麗，大家下午好。儘管面臨營業業績壓力，但我們在第三季再次實現了強勁盈利。強勁的毛利率和積極的營運費用管理使我們在本季度實現了強勁的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

As I walk through the P&L, please note that all comparisons are to the third quarter of fiscal 2023, unless otherwise stated. Beginning with our top line, net sales were $92.5 million, an increase of 1.4%, which is in line with our pre-announced range.

當我瀏覽損益表時，請注意，除非另有說明，所有比較均與 2023 財年第三季進行比較。從我們的營業收入開始，淨銷售額為 9,250 萬美元，成長 1.4%，與我們預先公佈的範圍一致。

By channel, wholesale-to-distributor net sales declined 11% as the weaker demand environment was partially offset by growth in new accounts and labels per account. As Deirdre described, we expect our distributor network realignment will generate greater focus, new investments, and long-term commitments from our distributors.

按通路劃分，批發至分銷商的淨銷售額下降了 11%，因為較弱的需求環境被新帳戶和每個帳戶的標籤成長部分抵消。正如 Deirdre 所描述的，我們預計經銷商網路的重新調整將會引起經銷商更多的關注、新的投資和長期承諾。

Over 50% of our net sales are derived from states in which we have a wholesale distributor alignment. We believe that the enhanced alignment with our distributors in these states will drive growth in the wholesale channel and minimize some of the variability inherent in the three-tier alcohol distribution model.

我們的淨銷售額有 50% 以上來自與批發分銷商有合作關係的州。我們相信，加強與這些州的分銷商的合作將推動批發管道的成長，並最大限度地減少三級酒類分銷模式固有的一些可變性。

We ended the quarter with distributor inventory days on hand above our expectations of 65 days as weaker market conditions have led to a more constrained demand forecast. While this current inventory level is contemplated in our updated guidance, we do expect average days on hand to come down, aided in part by our distributor realignment.

由於市場狀況疲軟導致需求預測更加受限，本季末經銷商庫存天數高於我們預期的 65 天。雖然我們更新後的指南中考慮到了當前的庫存水平，但我們確實預計平均庫存天數將會下降，部分原因是我們的經銷商重新調整。

California wholesale direct-to-trade declined 7.3%, driven by the same factors impacting the out-of-state wholesale channel. The direct-to-consumer channel increased 71.4%, reflecting the shift of our largest Kosta Browne offering into Q3 of this year from Q4 last fiscal year. There will be a commensurate reduction in our direct-to-consumer revenue in Q4, which is reflected in our updated guidance.

受影響州外批發通路的相同因素影響，加州批發直銷下降了 7.3%。直接面向消費者的管道成長了 71.4%，這反映了我們最大的 Kosta Browne 產品從上財年第四季轉移到了今年第三季。我們的第四季直接面向消費者的收入將相應減少，這反映在我們更新的指引中。

Moving down the P&L, gross margin was 55.6%, up approximately 20 basis points year over year, driven in part by our channel mix between wholesale and direct-to-consumer as well as lower trade spend in the promotional activity, reflecting lower-than-expected depletion volumes in the quarter. Adjusted SG&A, which excludes approximately $4.8 million in transaction and integration expenses, associated with the acquisition of Sonoma-Cutrer increased by $0.5 million to $21 million as we continued to carefully manage operating expenses, including variable compensation and discretionary spend in line with net sales growth.

損益表中，毛利率為 55.6%，比去年同期增長約 20 個基點，部分原因是我們的批發和直接面向消費者的渠道組合以及促銷活動中的貿易支出較低，反映出本季度的消耗量低於預期。調整後的銷售、一般和行政費用（SG&A）不包括約 480 萬美元的交易和整合費用，與收購 Sonoma-Cutrer 相關的費用增加了 50 萬美元，達到 2100 萬美元，因為我們繼續謹慎地管理營運費用，包括與淨銷售額增長一致的可變薪酬和可自由支配的支出。

Net income was $13.3 million or $0.12 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $16.3 million, or $0.14 per diluted share.

淨收入為 1,330 萬美元，即每股 0.12 美元。調整後淨收入為 1,630 萬美元，即每股收益 0.14 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $37.7 million, an increase of $1.9 million or 5.3% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved 150 basis points versus the prior-year period to 40.8%. At the end of the quarter, we had cash of $15.7 million and total debt of $315.3 million with a leverage ratio of 2.1 times net debt. This is slightly above historical level, reflecting debt from the Sonoma-Cutrer acquisition prior to any EBITDA contribution.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 3,770 萬美元，年增 190 萬美元，增幅 5.3%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較去年同期提高 150 個基點，達到 40.8%。截至本季末，我們的現金為 1,570 萬美元，總負債為 3.153 億美元，槓桿率為淨負債的 2.1 倍。這略高於歷史水平，反映了 Sonoma-Cutrer 收購產生的任何 EBITDA 貢獻之前的債務。

I'll turn now to our outlook for the remainder of the year. We are revising full-year fiscal 2024 guidance to reflect the current market environment and our third-quarter results. One note, having closed the acquisition on April 30, our guidance is now inclusive of Sonoma-Cutrer Vineyards. To provide additional clarity, we've included a slide in our earnings presentation that describes the factors contributing to our full-year net sales guidance.

現在我將談談我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。我們正在修改 2024 財年全年指引，以反映當前的市場環境和我們的第三季業績。需要注意的是，在 4 月 30 日完成收購後，我們的指導現已包括 Sonoma-Cutrer Vineyards。為了提供更多的清晰度，我們在收益報告中加入了一張投影片，描述了影響我們全年淨銷售額指引的因素。

For fiscal 2024, we now expect full-year net sales in the range of $398 million to $408 million, which represents a growth rate of approximately minus 1% to positive 1%. This reflects a fourth-quarter net sales growth at the midpoint of approximately 5%. This guidance range includes approximately $16 million of anticipated net sales from Sonoma-Cutrer in the fourth quarter.

對於 2024 財年，我們目前預計全年淨銷售額將在 3.98 億美元至 4.08 億美元之間，成長率約為負 1% 至正 1%。這反映出第四季淨銷售額成長率約為 5%。該指引範圍包括 Sonoma-Cutrer 第四季預計約 1,600 萬美元的淨銷售額。

For adjusted EBITDA, we expect a range of $146 million to $150 million or 1% to 4% growth. This represents an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36.7% at the midpoint, in line with our previous guidance as we continue to focus on execution and cost management.

對於調整後的 EBITDA，我們預計範圍在 1.46 億美元至 1.5 億美元之間，或成長 1% 至 4%。這意味著調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為中位數為 36.7%，與我們先前的指導一致，因為我們將繼續專注於執行和成本管理。

For interest expense, we expect approximately $18 million, and for our tax rate, we expect between 27% and 29%. For adjusted EPS, we expect a range of $0.56 to $0.58 per diluted share on an average share count of 123.5 million shares, which reflects approximately 31.5 million shares issued in connection with the acquisition of Sonoma-Cutrer.

對於利息支出，我們預計約為 1800 萬美元，對於稅率，我們預計在 27% 至 29% 之間。對於調整後的每股收益，我們預計每股攤薄收益在 0.56 美元至 0.58 美元之間，平均股數為 1.235 億股，這反映了收購 Sonoma-Cutrer 時發行的約 3,150 萬股股票。

I'll close by reiterating Deirdre's comments. We believe we can accelerate growth despite the headwinds currently facing the industry. Our third-quarter results highlight our commitment to driving strong profitability. Our brands continue to outpace the industry in Circana data, and we are confident in our ability to continue to take share and deliver sustained profitable long-term growth.

最後，我想重申 Deirdre 的評論。儘管目前行業面臨阻力，但我們相信我們能夠加速成長。我們的第三季業績凸顯了我們致力於實現強勁獲利的承諾。我們的品牌在 Circana 數據方面繼續領先於該行業，我們有信心繼續佔據市場份額並實現持續盈利的長期成長。

Thank you. I will now hand it back to Deirdre.

謝謝。我現在將它交還給 Deirdre。

Despite the current market conditions, I believe we're at an important inflection point for the company. As we've discussed, we have a strong portfolio made even stronger by the addition of Sonoma-Cutrer. We have a robust wholesale network now strengthened and deepened by our realigned distributor network. And I am confident we can continue to grow ahead of the market to deliver sustained profitable growth, and I look forward to updating you on our progress.

儘管目前的市場狀況如此，但我相信我們正處於公司的一個重要轉折點。正如我們所討論的，我們擁有強大的產品組合，而 Sonoma-Cutrer 的加入將使我們的產品組合變得更加強大。我們擁有強大的批發網絡，現在透過重新調整的經銷商網絡得到了加強和深化。我相信我們能夠繼續領先市場，實現持續的獲利成長，我期待向你們通報我們的進展。

With that, Jennifer, Sean and I are available to take your questions.

現在，Jennifer、Sean 和我可以回答您的問題了。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指示）

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Hey, guys. A couple of things. First, maybe just when we're thinking about the industry, can you please talk about what you think is behind the slowdown? I'm sure you've seen some cycles over the years, and is this consumer-led? Is there something else going on? Just any detail would be useful.

嘿，大家好。有幾件事。首先，當我們思考這個產業時，您能否談談您認為經濟放緩背後的原因？我相信這些年來你已經看到了一些週期，這是由消費者主導的嗎？還有什麼事發生嗎？任何細節都會有用。

Yeah. And hi, how are you? Nice to hear from you. Sorry about that. It's hard to know what's happening in the consumer lens, but it's really what we're hearing is there is a little bit of slowdown on the on-prem. We're hearing that from our distributors as well, and we're seeing it in the data. But I think it just kind of goes back to we're seeing strength in our category as we continue to outperform. So you're not seeing that as much in the luxury wine segment as you are in the total segment.

是的。嗨，你好嗎？很高興收到你的來信。很抱歉。很難知道消費者眼中發生了什麼，但我們確實聽到的是，本地部署的速度有所放緩。我們也從分銷商那裡聽說了這一點，並且我們在數據中看到了這一點。但我認為這只是回到了我們看到的類別實力，因為我們繼續表現出色。因此，在奢侈葡萄酒領域，你看到的這種情況並不像在整個葡萄酒領域那麼多。

Yeah, Kaumil, I'll just add a little bit to that, and I -- you may hear this from others across the bulk industry. I mean, clearly, there is on two things happening that have been -- that were happening all through calendar or through most of calendar '23 and have kind of continued into this year, although the impact seems to be lessening, and that is two things.

是的，考米爾，我只想補充一點，你可能從散裝行業的其他人那裡聽說過這個。我的意思是，顯然，有兩件事一直在發生——這兩件事在整個日曆或整個 23 年的大部分時間裡都在發生，並且一直持續到今年，儘管影響似乎正在減弱，但這就是兩件事。

One is kind of a normalization, as some people call it, or a level of inventory adjustment through all tiers, including the consumer, as people adjusted their behaviors post-COVID. So I think at the wholesale and retail level, maybe starting at retail, the retailers saw rising interest rates and some softening consumer demand, started to change their purchasing patterns, started to change their own outlook, and probably stored in the ring in their stores, and then started slowing down purchasing and changing their behavior.

一種是一些人所說的正常化，或者說隨著人們在疫情後調整行為，包括消費者在內的所有層級的庫存調整。因此我認為在批發和零售層面，也許從零售開始，零售商看到利率上升和一些消費者需求減弱，開始改變他們的購買模式，開始改變他們自己的觀點，並可能在他們的商店中儲存了戒指，然後開始放慢購買速度並改變他們的行為。

And then I think the industry felt it certainly through the end of last year that through the wholesale channel, they perhaps thought that as that forecast softened, the calculated days on hand go up and then that adjustment starts -- the normalization starts happening through that cycle. I think there is some softening, and you can see it because the Circana data backs that up. There is some softening in the consumer take off.

然後我認為，到去年年底，業界透過批發管道肯定感受到了這一點，他們或許認為，隨著預測的減弱，計算出的庫存天數會增加，然後調整就會開始——正常化將透過這個週期開始發生。我認為存在一些軟化現象，您可以看到這一點，因為 Circana 數據支持這一點。消費者成長勢頭放緩。

I don't -- it's not marked. It's just been kind of slowing. And I think the reason that we're pleased is that we, of course, at our price points and the tiers that we operate on. There is more -- it's more robust in terms of staying power, although as we noted in our recent -- or just the remarks you just heard, we did get some third quarter -- in our third quarter, the market turned down a bit.

我不知道——它沒有標記。它只是有點慢了。我認為我們感到高興的原因當然是我們的價位和營運層級。還有更多 - 就持久力而言它更加強勁，儘管正如我們在最近指出的那樣 - 或者只是您剛才聽到的評論中，我們確實在第三季度獲得了一些 - 在第三季度，市場略有下滑。

I don't think that is indicative of anything. It's gotten a little bit better in the months since. So I do think that we have a -- what I would call, a softening consumer demand combined with just some adjustments that needed to happen through the market.

我認為這不代表什麼。此後的幾個月裡，情況有所改善。因此，我確實認為，我們面臨所謂的消費者需求疲軟，以及市場需要進行的一些調整。

So we're not saying there's no consumer impact, but the bulk of I think what you've been seeing through the year, more of that is, I think, the normalization of what was happening within the tiers than a market change in the consumer. Although it's clear that the consumer behavior post-pandemic has been changing and that's what we're all busy adjusting to -- is how to ensure that we're meeting the consumer where they are and engaging with them effectively for our brand growth.

因此，我們並不是說這對消費者沒有影響，但我認為，今年以來我們看到的更多是各級內部發生的事情的正常化，而不是消費者的市場變化。儘管很明顯，疫情後的消費者行為一直在發生變化，而這也是我們都在忙於適應的——但我們要做的是如何確保我們能夠在消費者所在的地方與他們會面，並有效地與他們互動，以促進我們的品牌發展。

Okay, got it. And if -- maybe just trying not to put words in your mouth, but just to make sure I understand, it doesn't sound like it feels like to you that we maybe early cycle and the consumer continues to get worse. In fact, maybe it stabilized. Is that about where you were going with some of what you had said?

好的，明白了。如果——也許只是不想把話塞到你的嘴裡，而只是為了確保我理解，你並不覺得我們可能處於早期週期，而且消費者的情況會繼續惡化。事實上，也許它已經穩定下來了。這就是您剛才所說的一些內容嗎？

Yeah. I'm not -- I don't have a crystal ball. So of course, I want to be careful not to indicate that. We are encouraged by the last couple of months, what we're seeing from an overall depletion point of view. It's a bit more predictable. And so I'm encouraged by that.

是的。我不是──我沒有水晶球。所以當然，我要小心不要表明這一點。從整體消耗的角度來看，過去幾個月的情況令我們感到鼓舞。這更容易預測。所以我對此感到鼓舞。

Of course, the macro environment -- and you watch this as close or closer than we do -- every day, there is a piece of data or more than one piece of data and then they often contradict each other. So the consumer feels that as well, but I'm not seeing it worsening. So I think that is a fair assessment of our views.

當然，宏觀環境——你們對此的觀察比我們更密切——每天都會有一條或多條數據，而且它們經常相互矛盾。消費者也有這種感覺，但我沒有看到情況惡化。所以我認為這是對我們的觀點的公正評價。

I do look at it pretty closely. And I also don't know. So that's why I asked.

我確實非常仔細地觀察了它。我也不知道。這就是我問的原因。

Well, you're in good company then.

嗯，那你還真有同伴。

When I think about your guidance, does that assume that you just get -- you get inventories to where you would like them to be when we start next year?

當我考慮您的指導時，是否假設您只是將庫存量調整到您希望在明年開始時達到的水平？

Absolutely. Yes.

絕對地。是的。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great, thanks. And so just wanted to talk a little about Kosta Browne. I know you'd flagged it as a softer uptake on this year's offering as part of the reason for this quarter's dynamic. And I was just -- and then you suggested you're starting to -- you're digging in to try to understand it a little bit better.

太好了，謝謝。所以我想簡單談談科斯塔·布朗。我知道您已經將其標記為今年產品的吸收較弱，這是本季動態的原因之一。而我只是——然後你建議你開始——你正在深入嘗試更好地理解它。

I was wondering if you could give us maybe a preview. Does it feel like it's a high-end consumer issue and more on the -- almost like a cyclical dynamic? Or are you seeing things that are concerning you from a brand relevance standpoint? And I guess, also, I thought that you guys had pretty high visibility into demand -- into like the uptake on Kosta Browne was my understanding. So I'm just curious also about that degree of surprise. Thanks.

我想知道您是否可以給我們一個預覽。這是否感覺像是高端消費者問題，而且更像是一種週期性動態？或者從品牌相關性的角度來看，您是否看到了令您擔憂的事情？而且我想，我還認為你們對需求有相當高的了解——就像對科斯塔·布朗 (Kosta Browne) 的接受度一樣，這是我的理解。所以我也對這種程度的驚訝感到好奇。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for that, Lauren. I think this goes back to the comments that I made in Kaumil's -- in response to Kaumil's question a couple of minutes ago, I'll start there, which is that the behavior of consumers has shifted. And I think all -- much of the consumer industry that is engaged one way or another in clubs is kind of navigating what is a changing consumer behavior in terms of how the consumers purchase.

是的，謝謝你，勞倫。我認為這可以追溯到我在 Kaumil 的演講中所做的評論——幾分鐘前回答 Kaumil 的問題時，我將從那裡開始，即消費者的行為已經發生了變化。我認為，以某種方式參與俱樂部的大部分消費產業都在引導消費者購買行為的改變。

So the first thing I'll say is, we have done outreach to our consumer base in Kosta Browne, whom we have relationships with through the club, and we do not see any degradation in the brand equity or how people feel about the brand -- quite the opposite, I think, we are feeling still very strong affinity with the brand. That's what we're seeing in response.

因此，我要說的第一件事是，我們已經與科斯塔·布朗 (Kosta Browne) 的消費者群體進行了接觸，我們透過俱樂部與他們建立了關係，我們沒有看到品牌資產或人們對品牌的看法有任何下降——恰恰相反，我認為，我們仍然對品牌有很強的親和力。這就是我們所看到的回應。

So that was, of course, encouraging. And I think what we are seeing and the feedback that we're getting, and we can see is the same as what I mentioned before. The consumer is now shifting their behavior. So during the pandemic, when people were at home a lot, they were accumulating quite a lot of wine.

這當然是令人鼓舞的。我認為我們所看到的和所得到的回饋與我之前提到的是一樣的。消費者現在正在改變他們的行為。因此，在疫情期間，當人們大部分時間都待在家裡時，他們累積了相當多的葡萄酒。

If you go and -- if we go and look at what was happening in terms of people joining clubs, and retention levels, those were the highest levels that we had seen in some time. And they have fallen slightly off of that, but there is no material degradation in terms of what's happening. But we are finding that people are purchasing perhaps less, maybe they're not buying at every release. And when we ask them, they say, well, I have enough wine, or it's expensive, and I'm thinking about it.

如果你去看看——如果我們去看看人們加入俱樂部的情況，以及保留率，這些都是我們在一段時間內見過的最高水平。雖然它們的產量略有下降，但就目前的情況來看，並沒有出現實質的下降。但我們發現人們的購買量可能減少了，也許他們並不是每次發布都會購買。當我們問他們時，他們說，嗯，我的酒夠多了，或者它很貴，我正在考慮。

So I think our goal is -- as everyone's goal is as you're thinking about how to convert and retain consumers, is to make sure that we meet the consumer where they are, have the right offers at the right price points at the right times of year. We do believe we've got very positive feedback on the wine itself.

所以我認為我們的目標是——就像每個人的目標一樣，當你在思考如何轉換和留住消費者時，就是確保我們在消費者所在的地方與他們見面，在一年中的正確時間以正確的價格提供正確的優惠。我們確實相信我們對葡萄酒本身的反饋非常積極。

So we don't think that's an issue. I just think it's something about our working through our -- how we are identifying and converting and retaining the people on the list and then ensuring that we have the right offer so that their purchasing is at the level that we would hope that it would be.

所以我們認為這不是問題。我只是認為這與我們的運作方式有關——我們如何識別、轉化和留住名單上的人員，然後確保我們提供合適的報價，以便他們的購買量達到我們所希望的水平。

So it is -- those details are what we're working through. And so as we come through the year and in September when we come back, I'll be able to share more about the specific next steps that we may take with respect to identifying what's necessary to drive the growth back into the brand.

確實如此——這些細節正是我們正在努力解決的。因此，當我們度過這一年並在九月回來時，我將能夠分享更多關於我們可能採取的具體後續步驟，以確定推動品牌恢復成長所需的措施。

Okay. That's so helpful. If I can ask another, the implied -- I love this slide; you guys put up the guidance details -- slide 12, I guess. And for the implied guidance for 4Q on net sales, organic net sales excluding the Kosta Browne shift, it's a very wide range.

好的。這太有幫助了。如果我可以問另一個人，那麼暗示就是——我喜歡這張投影片；你們提供了指導細節——我想是第 12 張投影片。對於第四季度淨銷售額的隱含指導，不包括科斯塔·布朗 (Kosta Browne) 轉變的有機淨銷售額，範圍非常廣泛。

And so I get the industry is uncertain. But maybe, Jennifer, if you could just help articulate what's at the high end of the range? What's at the low end? What are sort of the underpinning assumptions that we can think through that dictate where things may shake out in that range?

所以我認為這個行業是不確定的。但是，詹妮弗，也許你可以幫助解釋一下這個範圍的高端是多少？低端是什麼？我們可以思考哪些基本假設來決定事情在這個範圍內可能如何發展？

Yeah, thanks. Great question. So there's a couple of things going on underneath the covers. Obviously, we've talked a lot about the volatility with the industry. So that does put a little bit of length on the overall range.

是的，謝謝。好問題。因此，幕後還發生了一些事情。顯然，我們已經討論了很多有關該行業的波動性。因此這確實會使整體範圍稍微變長。

But then also keep in mind that we have just started to integrate our distributor network. And so we're still working out growth goals with them. And we still have some work to do, although we actually have received orders already from our new newly aligned distributors, which is great information or great news for us. And so those are the two things that are really kind of driving a little bit of the variability underneath the covers. It's really in the wholesale channel has.

但也請記住，我們才剛開始整合我們的經銷商網路。因此我們仍在與他們一起制定成長目標。儘管我們實際上已經收到了來自新結盟分銷商的訂單，但我們仍有一些工作要做，這對我們來說是個好消息。因此，這兩件事實際上在某種程度上導致了幕後的一些變化。它確實在批發渠道有。

I think the only thing I would add to that is (technical difficulty) about depletions but also about the timing of those orders, as Jennifer pointed out, as we are ramping up is less predictable. So we wanted to ensure that we kind of covered all the ground as those changes have been made.

我認為我唯一要補充的是（技術難度）關於消耗，但也關於這些訂單的時間，正如詹妮弗指出的那樣，隨著我們逐漸增加，這些訂單的時間變得不太可預測。因此，我們希望確保在做出這些改變時能夠涵蓋所有方面。

Okay. That's great. And I think you guys spoke to this during the prepared remarks, but just to make sure I caught it. As you exit the fiscal year, do you think where you stand with this distributor network integration, you'll be set and ready to go? Or do you think there's still some volatility early next fiscal as things kind of settle out and there's perhaps excess wine around just as you make this transition?

好的。那太棒了。我認為你們在準備好的發言中談到了這一點，只是為了確保我聽懂了。在結束本財政年度時，您是否認為分銷商網路整合的進展情況已經準備就緒並可以繼續開展工作？或者您認為，隨著情況逐漸穩定，下一個財年初期仍會出現一些波動，而且在進行這一轉變時，可能會出現過剩的葡萄酒？

Yeah, I think what we said was the -- look, there is some -- the world, as you know, doesn't move neatly into quarters. So there may be some shifting. And as we just pointed out for the fourth quarter and the reason why that range is so big is that there may be some that falls into Q1. So as we come through it and certainly as we come through the year, we'll give you an update. But I think by the time we get into 2Q -- Q2, I would expect that it will all have washed through.

是的，我認為我們所說的是——你看，有一些——正如你所知，世界並不是整齊地分成四份的。因此可能會有一些轉變。正如我們剛才指出的第四季度，這個範圍如此之大的原因是可能有一些屬於第一季。因此，當我們度過難關，當然，當我們度過這一年時，我們會向您提供最新消息。但我認為，當我們進入第二季時，我預計這一切都會過去。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的彼得‧加爾博 (Peter Galbo)。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for the question. I guess, Jennifer, maybe just a housekeeping on the first -- the $16 million of Sonoma-Cutrer in the fourth quarter, I think that was maybe run-rating a bit below kind of what would have been the expected plan on a go-forward based on kind of when the timing of the deal was announced. But what I don't want to do is take that number and extrapolate it if there's a lot of seasonality in that business.

嘿，下午好。謝謝你的提問。我想，詹妮弗，也許只是對第一點進行整理——第四季度索諾瑪-卡特勒的 1600 萬美元交易，我認為這一運行評級可能略低於根據交易宣佈時間所預期的推進計劃。但如果該行業存在很大的季節性，我不想用這個數字來推斷它。

So maybe you could just help us -- is the seasonality in Sonoma-Cutrer from a revenue standpoint just different from your overall business?

所以也許您可以幫助我們—從收入的角度來看，索諾瑪-卡特勒的季節性與您的整體業務是否不同？

Yeah. When we -- the three quarters ending January 30, I think we had about $70 million of revenue from Sonoma-Cutrer. This is an approximate number. There is some seasonality to it. As we know, holiday is -- as you load in for holiday, one of the biggest quarters. But I wouldn't extrapolate anything from a full-year perspective.

是的。當我們——截至 1 月 30 日的三個季度中，我認為我們從 Sonoma-Cutrer 獲得了約 7000 萬美元的收入。這是一個近似數字。它有一定的季節性。我們知道，假期是——當你為假期做準備時，這是最大的季度之一。但我不會從全年的角度推斷任何事情。

I would also note, just don't forget there are some distributor changes occurring for that brand as well. So we want to be cognizant of that, and the ups and downs that are just a matter of timing that could occur.

我還要指出的是，不要忘記該品牌也正在發生一些分銷商的變化。因此，我們要認識到這一點，可能發生的起伏只是時間問題。

Got it.

知道了。

I wouldn't read (multiple speakers) That's why we use the tilde. We don't mean for it to be a precise number that you should extrapolate from.

我不會讀（多個發言者）這就是我們使用波浪號的原因。我們並不是想讓它成為一個供您推斷的精確數字。

Okay. Helpful. And then maybe just to the extent that you guys have been delivering a lot of gross margin upside on these quarters, and the volume weakness is kind of like floating. Have you just considered, is there a need to -- I don't know -- invest some of that gross margin upside back into price from a promotional level or even more into marketing spend? It would seem that there is an opportunity given the gross margin over delivery maybe to do more to accelerate the recovery from a volume perspective.

好的。很有幫助。然後也許只是在某種程度上，你們在這幾個季度中已經實現了很大的毛利率上升，而銷量疲軟有點像浮動。您是否考慮過，是否有必要——我不知道——將部分毛利率上漲重新投資到促銷層面的價格中，甚至更多地投資到行銷支出中？考慮到毛利率超過交付量，似乎有機會從數量角度採取更多措施來加速復甦。

That's a great question, and it's one of the reasons we're really excited about our alignment with our distributors. We will have our distributors much more focused on our business and reinvesting in our business as we move forward. So we will be reinvesting into the business in a very thoughtful way across all of our brands. And so we're really excited about that.

這是一個很好的問題，這也是我們對與經銷商的合作感到非常興奮的原因之一。我們將讓我們的經銷商更加專注於我們的業務，並在我們前進的過程中對我們的業務進行再投資。因此，我們將以非常周到的方式對所有品牌的業務進行再投資。因此我們對此感到非常興奮。

And then a little bit what you saw in the gross margin, just to clarify, in Q3 is when we move the Kosta Browne Appellation from Q4, and Kosta Browne does have a high margin of last year. Into Q3 this year, we did see the margin favorability due to mix in Q3, and then you'll see a little bit of pressure in Q4 as that Kosta Browne offering is not in Q4 anymore. So that is a piece of it as well.

然後稍微澄清一下您在毛利率方面看到的，在第三季度，我們將科斯塔布朗稱號從第四季度轉移，而科斯塔布朗的利潤率確實比去年高。進入今年第三季度，我們確實看到了由於第三季度產品組合而帶來的利潤率優勢，然後你會看到第四季度出現一點壓力，因為 Kosta Browne 產品不再出現在第四季度。這也是其中的一部分。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

Thank you, and good to see that the team is forming right now. So I wanted to just think about consumption. If we can try to extrapolate the noise from the wholesale and the pantry destocking, what have you -- hearing from the trade? And perhaps DTC ex-Kosta Browne and your tasting rooms could be a good metric to that to help us reconcile all this noise.

謝謝，很高興看到團隊正在組建。所以我只想考慮消費。如果我們可以嘗試推斷批發和食品儲藏室去庫存的聲音，您從貿易中聽到了什麼？也許 DTC 前科斯塔布朗 (Kosta Browne) 和您的品酒室可以作為一個很好的衡量標準，幫助我們協調所有這些噪音。

And then also a clarification on the wide range of the guide in your slide and the distribution realignment. How much of that distribution realignment do you think would inform you to that? I believe, it's like 10 percentage points that it went from minus 7 to [plus-2.5 ex-Kosta Browne]. Just to understand how much of that would be related to the distribution realignment.

然後也要澄清幻燈片中指南的廣泛範圍和分佈重新調整。您認為這種分佈重新調整在多大程度上能為您帶來這樣的啟示？我相信，它從-7%上升到10個百分點[加上-2.5 前科斯塔·布朗]。只是想了解其中有多少是與分佈調整有關。

Yeah, we haven't really quantified that. I think the way to look at it is where's the midpoint of that range, because that will really show how we expect Q4 to perform on an organic basis versus how we have been performing year to date. So it's really in line with where we've been performing and just -- the wider range is just for the variability.

是的，我們還沒有真正量化這一點。我認為看待這個問題的方法是看這個範圍的中點在哪裡，因為這將真正顯示我們預期第四季度的自然表現與我們今年迄今為止的表現如何。所以這確實與我們一直以來的表現一致——更大的範圍只是為了增加可變性。

Yeah. And just to add a little bit more color. It's just under -- it's just I think, a bit under 20% of the volume of the businesses impacted by distributor change. In some states, the Duckhorn Portfolio is moving and in some states, Sonoma-Cutrer, and in some states, there's no movement at all.

是的。只是為了添加一點點顏色。我認為，受經銷商變更影響的業務量略低於 20%。在某些州，達克霍恩投資組合正在變動，在某些州，索諾瑪-卡特勒投資組合正在變動，而在某些州，則完全沒有變動。

But the thing is the range is not so much that oh, there's going to be disruption, but there is some shipment variability, because the new wholesalers, of course, need to get their warehouses full of the brands that they're going to be representing. And the timing of that as we do kick off, et cetera, is just -- it's not so predictable when we -- today so that we allowed some range in there in terms of the timing of it. There isn't anything in terms of the fundamental underlying piece of the business.

但問題是，範圍並不大，哦，會有中斷，但會有一些裝運變化，因為新的批發商當然需要讓他們的倉庫裝滿他們將要代理的品牌。而我們開始的時間等等只是——今天我們什麼時候開始並不是那麼容易預測——所以我們在時間方面留出了一些範圍。從業務的基本底層來看，什麼都沒有。

And then to Jennifer's point, there is still some uncertainty in the overall market. So of course, even the business that's unaffected by wholesaler changes, we're being thoughtful about what the variability could be within that.

然後回到詹妮弗的觀點，整體市場仍然存在一些不確定性。因此，當然，即使業務不受批發商變化的影響，我們也在認真考慮其中可能存在的變化。

But none of those pieces are very wide. It's just a number of components that we think in this environment warranted a wider range. For one quarter, we recognized that seems quite wide. But given what's happening in the market, it seems like the prudent way to approach it.

但這些碎片都不是很寬。我們認為，在這種環境下，一些組件需要更廣泛的應用。對於一個季度而言，我們認識到這個範圍似乎相當廣泛。但考慮到市場現狀，這似乎是謹慎的做法。

And maybe I'll -- that's super helpful. Maybe the way to think how you sounded optimistic about the depletions most recently -- perhaps give us some sort of idea of depletions in May and how the progression were as you exit the quarter against the February through May, right? So as you exit the quarter, you sounded more positive or you're seeing depletions improving from that level.

也許我會——這非常有幫助。也許您可以這樣想：您對最近的消耗情況持樂觀態度——也許可以給我們介紹一下 5 月份的消耗情況，以及本季度結束時與 2 月至 5 月相比的進展情況，對嗎？因此，當您退出本季度時，您聽起來更加積極，或者您看到損耗從那個水平開始改善。

Yeah. I mean, I think it's been difficult to get to string together two months of good depletions before I think its way back into early autumn or late summer last year before there were two consecutive months of depletions that we felt were consistent with our expectations for the business. And I would say April and May were two months of good depletions in the kind of a growth rate that we think is consistent with our ambition for the business. So we feel good about that.

是的。我的意思是，我認為很難連續兩個月出現良好的消耗，我想這可以追溯到去年初秋或夏末，當時出現了連續兩個月的消耗，我們認為這與我們對業務的預期是一致的。我想說的是，四月和五月是兩個成長勢頭良好的月份，我們認為這種成長率與我們對業務的期望是一致的。因此我們對此感到很高興。

That said, as I said earlier in the call, I don't want to declare victory on two months of good depletions. We are still seeing -- and I would still anticipate some of it just by pure mathematics in terms of what the industry is cycling from last year that we should see some leveling off and slight improvement into the market. And barring any unexpected kind of macro or socioeconomic factors, we would expect to see a leveling and slight improvement in the market in the coming months.

話雖如此，正如我早些時候在電話中所說的那樣，我不想因為兩個月的良好消耗而宣布勝利。我們仍然看到——而且我仍然會根據去年行業週期的純數學預測其中的一些，我們應該看到市場趨於平穩並略有改善。除非出現任何意外的宏觀或社會經濟因素，我們預計未來幾個月市場將趨於平穩並略有改善。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

蒙特利爾銀行 (BMO) 的 Andrew Strelzik。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. My first one is on the updated synergy assumptions. Where is that upside incrementally coming from, and can you share how much is included in the fourth quarter versus 2025, and if you're including any revenue synergies at this point?

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答這些問題。我的第一個問題是關於更新的綜效假設。這種增量上行空間來自哪裡？您能否分享一下與 2025 年相比，第四季的上行空間是多少？以及此時是否包括任何收入綜效？

Great. Hey, Andrew. And so the majority of the synergies are coming from really compensation and organization leverage, being able to leverage our teams here at Duckhorn, being -- we have expertise in luxury wine versus the resources that we're currently dedicated to the business. But there are also some savings associated just getting us all on the same IT system, really streamlining processes.

偉大的。嘿，安德魯。因此，大部分協同效應實際上來自於薪資和組織槓桿，能夠利用我們在 Duckhorn 的團隊——我們在奢華葡萄酒方面擁有專業知識，而不是我們目前投入業務的資源。但是，只要讓我們都使用同一個 IT 系統，就能真正簡化流程，進而節省一些成本。

So the majority of it is though from a compensation perspective. You will see the synergies come through in 2025, as we noted in the first full year of operations. For the first quarter, we are still -- although the integration plan is complete, we are still switching over some things to our network. So there will be some investments now and that would be offsetting some of those synergies, but we really expect to see them in 2025. And it will be not all in one quarter; it will be throughout the year.

所以大部分都是從補償角度來考慮的。正如我們在營運的第一個完整年份所注意到的那樣，您將在 2025 年看到協同效應的實現。對於第一季度，儘管整合計劃已經完成，但我們仍在將一些內容轉移到我們的網路中。因此，現在會有一些投資，這將抵消部分協同效應，但我們確實希望在 2025 年看到這些投資。這一切不會集中在一個地方；它將持續全年。

Okay. Okay, great. And then I guess -- go ahead.

好的。好的，太好了。然後我想——繼續吧。

Sorry. And you did ask about revenue synergies. No, we have not baked those in at this point.

對不起。您確實詢問了收入協同效應。不，我們目前還沒有把它們烤進去。

Got it. Okay. And then my other question is just about the cost controls that on you've been able to execute against. And I guess what I'm trying to understand is how much of that -- kind of you're able to hold onto once the top line improves versus kind of more being timing-related.

知道了。好的。然後我的另一個問題是關於您能夠執行的成本控制。我想了解的是，一旦收入提高，您能夠堅持到什麼程度，還是更多地與時間有關。

And I guess I'm trying to think about at what point the portion that is more timing-related, you'd start to make those reinvestments -- or you start to make those investments. Is there any kind of signposts to think about, or how you guys will gauge the timing related to that? Thanks.

我想我正在思考在什麼時候你會開始進行那些與時間更相關的再投資 - 或開始進行那些投資。是否有任何路標需要考慮，或者你們將如何判斷與此相關的時間？謝謝。

Yeah. So we do feel really good about being able to offset our top line and in this tough macroenvironment with cost controls as well as our improved gross margin. Where we have been saving money has really been from a discretionary standpoint and back of house.

是的。因此，我們確實很高興能夠在這種艱難的宏觀環境下透過成本控制和提高毛利率來抵消我們的營業收入。我們真正省錢的地方是從可自由支配的角度和後台的角度。

At this point, we want to make sure that we're still investing for profitable growth in the business, and we will continue to do that on a go-forward basis. We have now 11 have great brands that we need to support. So we will continue to invest to support those brands in a profitable way.

此時，我們希望確保我們仍在為業務的獲利成長進行投資，並且我們將繼續這樣做。我們現在有 11 個需要支援的優秀品牌。因此，我們將繼續投資，以有利可圖的方式支持這些品牌。

Thank you. There are currently no further questions at this time. I will pass it back over to the management team for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我將把它交還給管理團隊，請他們作最後發言。

Okay. Thanks. I want to thank everyone again for joining us today to review our third-quarter performance and guidance for fiscal '24. I look forward to speaking to you again in September when we report our fourth-quarter and full-year results. Cheers until then.

好的。謝謝。我要再次感謝大家今天加入我們，回顧我們 24 財年第三季的業績和指引。我期待在九月報告第四季度和全年業績時再次與您交談。到時再歡呼吧。

This concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。