Marzetti Co (MZTI) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Lauren, and I will be your conference call facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Lancaster Colony Corporation Fiscal Year 2024 First Quarter Conference Call. Conducting today's call will be Dave Ciesinski, President and CEO; and Tom Pigott, CFO. (Operator Instructions) And now to begin the conference call, here is Dale Ganobsik, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations for Lancaster Colony Corporation.

早安.我叫勞倫，今天我將擔任你們的電話會議主持人。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加蘭卡斯特殖民地公司 2024 財年第一季電話會議。總裁兼執行長戴夫·西辛斯基 (Dave Ciesinski) 主持今天的電話會議；和財務長湯姆皮戈特。 （操作員指示）現在開始電話會議，蘭開斯特殖民地公司企業財務和投資者關係副總裁 Dale Ganobsik 發言。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Lancaster Colony's Fiscal Year 2024 First Quarter Conference Call. Our discussion this morning may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based upon subsequent events.

大家早安，感謝您今天參加蘭開斯特殖民地 2024 財年第一季電話會議。我們今天早上的討論可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束。這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且本公司不承擔根據後續事件更新這些聲明的義務。

A detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties is contained in the company's filings with the SEC. Also note that the audio replay of this call will be archived and available at our company's website, lancastercolony.com, later this afternoon.

該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了這些風險和不確定性。另請注意，本次通話的音訊重播將被存檔並於今天下午晚些時候在我們公司的網站 lancastercolony.com 上提供。

For today's call, Dave Ciesinski, our President and CEO, will begin with the business update and highlights for the quarter. Tom Pigott, our CFO, will then provide an overview of the financial results. Dave will then share some comments regarding our current strategy and outlook. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we'll be happy to respond to any of your questions.

在今天的電話會議中，我們的總裁兼執行長 Dave Ciesinski 將首先介紹本季的業務更新和亮點。我們的財務長 Tom Pigott 隨後將概述財務表現。然後戴夫將分享一些關於我們當前策略和前景的評論。在我們準備好的演講結束時，我們將很樂意回答您的任何問題。

Once again, we appreciate your participation this morning. I'll now turn the call over to Lancaster Colony's President and CEO, Dave Ciesinski. Dave?

我們再次感謝您今天早上的參與。現在我將把電話轉給 Lancaster Colony 的總裁兼執行長 Dave Ciesinski。戴夫？

Thanks, Dale, and good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you today as we review our first quarter results for fiscal year 2024. In our fiscal first quarter, which ended September 30, consolidated net sales increased 8.5% to a first quarter record $462 million, while gross profit increased 9.8% to $108.7 million.

謝謝戴爾，大家早安。今天很高興與大家一起回顧 2024 財年第一季的業績。在截至 9 月 30 日的第一財季，合併淨銷售額增長 8.5%，達到創紀錄的 4.62 億美元，同時毛利潤也有所增長9.8% 至1.087 億美元。

As a reminder, last year's first quarter sales were unfavorably impacted by an estimated $25 million in net sales that had shifted into the quarter ended June 30, 2022, in advance of our ERP go-live. The lower sales reduced last year's Q1 gross profit by an estimated $5 million.

提醒一下，去年第一季的銷售額受到了估計 2500 萬美元的淨銷售額的不利影響，該淨銷售額在我們的 ERP 上線之前轉移到了截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日的季度。銷售額下降導致去年第一季的毛利減少了約 500 萬美元。

In our retail segment, net sales growth of 8.5% was led by continued strong performance of our successful program for license, sauces and dressings and another solid quarter for our New York Bakery frozen garlic bread products.

在我們的零售部門，淨銷售額增長了8.5%，這得益於我們成功的許可證、醬汁和調味料計劃的持續強勁表現，以及我們的New York Ba​​kery 冷凍大蒜麵包產品的另一個穩定季度表現。

Excluding the impact of the sales shift that reduced retail sales in the prior quarter, retail segment sales volume measured in pounds shipped increased 1.4% The Circana retail scanner data showed our licensed sauce products continue to perform very well during the quarter as Chick-fil-A sauces were up 17.6% to $41.4 million. Olive Garden dressings were up 9.6% to $39 million and Buffalo Wild Wings sauces were up 25.9% to $20.8 million.

排除上一季零售額減少的銷售變化的影響，以發貨磅數計算的零售部門銷量增長了1.4%。 Circana 零售掃描儀數據顯示，我們的授權醬料產品在本季度繼續表現出色，因為Chick -fil- A 醬料上漲 17.6%，達到 4,140 萬美元。 Olive Garden 調味料上漲 9.6%，達到 3,900 萬美元，Buffalo Wild Wings 醬料上漲 25.9%，達到 2,080 萬美元。

Our category-leading New York Bakery and Sister Schubert brands also increased their market share during the quarter. New York Bakery's leading share of the frozen garlic bread category grew 400 basis points to 44.3%. While Sister Schubert's share of the frozen dinner roll category increased 80 basis points to 54.1%.

我們類別領先的 New York Ba​​kery 和 Sister Schubert 品牌在本季的市佔率也有所增加。 New York Ba​​kery 在冷凍大蒜麵包類別中的領先份額增長了 400 個基點，達到 44.3%。而舒伯特修女在冷凍餐卷類別的份額則增加了80個基點，達到54.1%。

I'm also happy to report that Chick-fil-A refrigerated salad dressings, which we launched nationally last May, are also performing well with $10 million in retailer sales during the quarter.

我還很高興地向大家報告，我們去年 5 月在全國推出的 Chick-fil-A 冷藏沙拉醬也表現良好，本季零售商銷售額達到 1000 萬美元。

When combined with our Marzetti brand, our refrigerated dressing sales have grown to represent a category-leading share of 28.3%. In the Foodservice segment, net sales grew 8.4% on increased demand from many of our national chain accounts in addition to solid sales growth for our branded Foodservice products. Excluding the impact of the sales shift that reduced food service sales in the prior year quarter, Foodservice segment sales volumes advanced 1.4%. We are pleased to report our Q1 gross profit increased $9.7 million or 9.8%.

與我們的 Marzetti 品牌相結合，我們的冷藏調味品銷售額已增長至 28.3% 的同類領先​​份額。在餐飲服務領域，除了我們品牌餐飲服務產品的穩定銷售成長外，由於我們許多全國連鎖客戶的需求增加，淨銷售額成長了 8.4%。排除上一季餐飲服務銷售額減少的銷售變化的影響，餐飲服務部門銷售額成長了 1.4%。我們很高興地報告第一季毛利增加了 970 萬美元，即 9.8%。

Our Q1 gross profit margin of 23.6% reflects a sequential improvement of 310 basis points over the prior quarter. As we move past some of the temporary costs associated with strategic investments and increased capacity at our facility in Horse Cave, Kentucky and our new ERP network. Our focus on supply chain productivity, value engineering and revenue management remain core to further improving our financial performance.

我們第一季的毛利率為 23.6%，比上一季環比提高了 310 個基點。隨著我們克服與肯塔基州 Horse Cave 工廠和新 ERP 網路的戰略投資和產能增加相關的一些臨時成本。我們對供應鏈生產力、價值工程和收入管理的關注仍然是進一步改善我們財務表現的核心。

I'll now turn the call over to Tom Pigott, our CFO, for his commentary on our first quarter results.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的財務長湯姆·皮戈特（Tom Pigott），請他對我們第一季的業績發表評論。

Thanks, Dave. The results for the quarter reflect continued topline growth and improved gross margin performance. First quarter consolidated net sales increased by 8.5% to $461.6 million. Decomposing the revenue performance, revenue was favorably impacted by approximately 600 basis points from last year's sales shift.

謝謝，戴夫。本季的業績反映了營收的持續成長和毛利率的改善。第一季綜合淨銷售額成長 8.5%，達到 4.616 億美元。分解收入表現，收入受到去年銷售變化約 600 個基點的有利影響。

Higher net pricing contributed approximately 140 basis points of growth. The remainder was driven by volume. Consolidated gross profit increased by $9.7 million or 9.8% versus the prior year quarter to $108.7 million.

更高的淨定價貢獻了約 140 個基點的成長。其餘則由成交量驅動。綜合毛利較上年同期成長 970 萬美元，成長 9.8%，達到 1.087 億美元。

The gross profit growth was driven by the favorable impact of comping to the prior year shift in customer orders, which we estimate to have been an approximate $5 million tailwind, favorable pricing net of commodities performance, higher volumes and the improved supply chain performance Dave mentioned.

毛利成長是由於與上一年客戶訂單變化相比的有利影響所推動的，我們估計這將帶來約500 萬美元的順風車、扣除大宗商品表現的有利定價、更高的銷量以及戴夫提到的供應鏈績效的改善。

Commodity costs were consistent with the prior year. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 4.4% or $2.2 million. The increase reflects investments to support the growth of the business as well as higher personnel costs. The investments to support the growth of the business included higher consumer spending and increased brokerage costs.

商品成本與上年持平。銷售、一般和管理費用增加 4.4%，即 220 萬美元。這一成長反映了支持業務成長的投資以及更高的人員成本。支持業務成長的投資包括更高的消費者支出和增加的經紀成本。

Consumer spending increased to be more in line with historical levels versus a low comparative period as our product supply position has improved. Expenditures for Project Ascent, our ERP initiatives were down partially offsetting these increases. Costs related to the project totaled $3.8 million in the current year quarter versus $9.2 million in the prior year quarter.

由於我們的產品供應狀況有所改善，消費者支出的成長與比較時期的較低水準更符合歷史水準。我們的 ERP 計劃 Ascent 項目的支出有所下降，部分抵消了這些增長。本季與該項目相關的成本總計為 380 萬美元，而去年同期為 920 萬美元。

Consolidated operating income increased $7.5 million or 15.2% due to the gross profit improvement, partially offset by the higher SG&A expenses I mentioned. Our tax rate for the quarter was 23.7%. We estimate our tax rate for the remainder of fiscal '24 to be 23%. First quarter diluted earnings per share increased $0.23 or 16.9% to $1.59. The net impact of the reduction in Project Ascent expenses was favorable by $0.15.

由於毛利的提高，綜合營業收入增加了 750 萬美元，即 15.2%，但部分被我提到的較高的 SG&A 費用所抵消。我們本季的稅率為 23.7%。我們預計 24 財年剩餘時間的稅率為 23%。第一季攤薄每股收益增加 0.23 美元，或 16.9%，達到 1.59 美元。 Project Ascent 費用減少的淨影響有利 0.15 美元。

With regard to capital expenditures, our full year payments for property additions totaled $18.3 million. For fiscal '24, we are forecasting total capital expenditures of $70 million to $80 million. This forecast reflects a decline versus the prior year spending with the Horse Cave expansion now substantially complete.

在資本支出方面，我們全年為增加財產支付的費用總計 1,830 萬美元。對於 24 財年，我們預計總資本支出為 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。這項預測反映了隨著 Horse Cave 擴建現已基本完成，支出較上年下降。

In addition to investing in our business, we also returned funds to shareholders. Our quarterly cash dividend of $0.85 per share paid on September 30 represented a 6% increase from the prior year's amount. Our enduring streak of annual dividend increases stands at 60 years. Our financial position remained strong with a debt-free balance sheet and $73.7 million in cash.

除了投資我們的業務外，我們還向股東返還資金。我們在 9 月 30 日支付的季度現金股利為每股 0.85 美元，比前一年增加了 6%。我們連續 60 年持續增加年股股利。我們的財務狀況依然強勁，擁有無債務的資產負債表和 7,370 萬美元的現金。

So to wrap up my commentary, our first quarter results reflected continued topline increases, improved gross profit performance and investments to support further growth. I'll now turn it back over to Dave for his closing remarks.

因此，為了總結我的評論，我們第一季的業績反映了營收的持續成長、毛利績效的改善以及支持進一步成長的投資。現在我將把它轉回給戴夫，讓他作結束語。

Thanks, Tom. As we look ahead, Lancaster Colony will continue to leverage the combined strength of our team, our operating strategy and our balance sheet in support of the 3 simple pillars of our growth plan. To: one, accelerate core business growth; two, simplify our supply chain to reduce our cost and grow margins; and three, expand our core focused M&A and strategic licensing.

謝謝，湯姆。展望未來，蘭卡斯特殖民地將繼續利用我們團隊的綜合實力、營運策略和資產負債表來支持我們成長計畫的三個簡單支柱。一、加速核心業務成長；第二，簡化我們的供應鏈以降低成本並增加利潤；第三，擴大我們的核心重點併購和策略授權。

In our fiscal second quarter, we anticipate retail sales will continue to benefit from our expanded licensing program, including incremental growth from new products, flavors and sizes we introduced in fiscal 2023.

在第二財季，我們預計零售額將繼續受益於我們擴大的授權計劃，包括我們在 2023 財年推出的新產品、口味和尺寸帶來的增量成長。

In the Foodservice segment, we anticipate continued volume growth from select customers in our mix of national chain restaurant accounts. Regarding inflation, while our input costs remain high, in total, we do not anticipate a significant impact from inflationary costs in the upcoming quarter versus the prior year period.

在餐飲服務領域，我們預計全國連鎖餐廳客戶組合中特定客戶的銷售將持續成長。關於通貨膨脹，雖然我們的投入成本總體上仍然很高，但我們預計下一季的通貨膨脹成本與去年同期相比不會產生重大影響。

With respect to our ERP initiative, Project Ascent, following the successful completion of our final implementation wave in August, we are now devoting our attention to leveraging the capabilities of the new system to strengthen our execution and support our continued growth.

關於我們的 ERP 計畫 Project Ascent，繼 8 月成功完成最後一波實施後，我們現在正致力於利用新系統的功能來加強我們的執行力並支持我們的持續成長。

In closing, I'd like to thank the entire Lancaster Colony team for all their hard work this past quarter and their ongoing commitment to our business. This concludes our prepared remarks for today, and we'd be happy to take any questions you might have.

最後，我要感謝整個 Lancaster Colony 團隊在上個季度的辛勤工作以及他們對我們業務的持續承諾。我們今天準備的演講到此結束，我們很樂意回答您可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Jim Salera of Stephens.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Jim Salera。

I wanted to ask about your visibility into consumer restaurant traffic as we kind of exit 2023 and move into calendar 2024. Should we take the commentary around the select restaurant volume growth to mean that overall restaurants are kind of cautiously optimistic moving forward?

我想問一下，隨著我們即將退出2023 年並進入2024 年，您對消費者餐廳客流量的看法如何。我們是否應該將有關精選餐廳數量增長的評論視為意味著整體餐廳對未來持謹慎樂觀的態度？

I think, Jim, we were talking about it more in the context of our relationships with our customers. What I would tell you is if we look at some of the more recent traffic data -- what I would tell you is L52 traffic across all restaurants were flat. L12 restaurants were down 100 basis points, and that was true in the most recent 4 weeks as well.

吉姆，我想我們更多是在我們與客戶的關係的背景下討論這個問題的。我要告訴你的是，如果我們查看一些最近的流量數據，我會告訴你的是，所有餐廳的 L52 流量均持平。 L12 餐廳下降了 100 個基點，最近 4 週也是如此。

When you look at QSR traffic, it was growing modestly. And I think what we're seeing in the most recent period is that traffic is now closer to flat. Full-service restaurants to include -- even some of the quick casual concepts are seeing their traffic under more pressure.

當你觀察到速食店的流量時，你會發現它的成長幅度不大。我認為我們最近一段時間看到的情況是流量現在接近持平。包括全方位服務的餐廳——甚至一些快餐休閒概念店的客流量也面臨更大的壓力。

I mean that's sort of industry-wide. When you bring it in and you look at our strategic relationships, we're seeing our QSR customers on balance, sort of consistent with broader trends performing in line with what I described, and then we have customers like Chick-fil-A, which are continuing to buck the trend and seeing their traffic remain even stronger.

我的意思是，這是整個行業的情況。當你把它帶進來並看看我們的策略關係時，我們會看到我們的QSR 客戶處於平衡狀態，與我所描述的更廣泛的趨勢一致，然後我們有像Chick-fil-A 這樣的客戶，繼續逆勢而行，並看到他們的流量仍然更加強勁。

So as we sort of bring it in and we talk about how do we see things, I think we're going to obviously experience what everybody else is in the industry. But I think our partnership with Chick-fil-A and maybe a couple of others provides us a little bit of a tailwind just because of what they're seeing from a traffic perspective.

因此，當我們將其引入並討論我們如何看待事物時，我認為我們顯然會體驗到行業中其他人的情況。但我認為我們與 Chick-fil-A 以及其他一些公司的合作為我們提供了一點順風，因為他們從流量的角度看到了這一點。

Great. That's very helpful color. Maybe shifting to retail. Can you just give us some context around what the promotional environment looks like, have you seen retailers coming to you guys asking for maybe more discounting or more pricing competition across some of the other peer groups in your categories?

偉大的。這是非常有用的顏色。也許會轉向零售業。您能為我們介紹一下促銷環境嗎？您是否看到零售商來找你們，要求在您所在類別的其他一些同行群體中提供更多折扣或更多定價競爭？

So another great question. We're seeing two things. We are seeing requests for increased promotional support. But what I will tell you is it's not being manifested in the form of you need to reduce your prices because of deflation. I think what they're seeing in the marketplace is the same thing that we are, that our basket of goods from an inflation perspective, has normalized, right?

這是另一個很好的問題。我們看到兩件事。我們收到了增加促銷支援的請求。但我要告訴你的是，這並沒有表現為你因通貨緊縮而需要降低價格。我認為他們在市場上看到的和我們是一樣的，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們的一籃子商品已經正常化，對嗎？

We're no longer seeing the inflation that we were before, but we're not seeing deflation to the point where it feels like they can squeeze us for a trade. We are seeing some of our peers start to increase. But I think what we're looking at more closely is what's going to happen with private label.

我們不再看到以前那樣的通貨膨脹，但我們也沒有看到通貨緊縮到讓人感覺他們可以擠壓我們進行交易的程度。我們看到一些同行開始增加。但我認為我們更密切關注的是自有品牌將會發生什麼。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Connor Rattigan of Consumer Edge.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 Connor Rattigan。

So obviously, impressive volume growth for both businesses even when adjusted for the pull forward. And I guess just kind of as you look forward with compares kind of getting tougher, especially in retail, I guess just sort of what is your visibility going forward on volume growth? I mean, I guess should we sort of expect this sustained low single-digit volume growth going forward for the rest of the year?

顯然，即使根據拉動進行調整，這兩項業務的銷售成長也令人印象深刻。我想，正如您所期望的那樣，比較會變得更加艱難，尤其是在零售業，我想您對未來銷售成長的看法是什麼？我的意思是，我想我們是否應該預期今年剩餘時間這種持續的低個位數銷售成長？

It's a great question because we're all watching the same macro information start to roll in for all the food and discretionary spending in all outlet channels. And we still feel optimistic that we're in a position to deliver low single-digit growth. And that's principally going to be coming in the form of volume because we have a little bit of price in Q1, but you're going to see the impact of that price sort of work itself out as we go forward. So where we see it right now, we continue to feel that we can deliver low single-digit growth led by volume.

這是一個很好的問題，因為我們都看到相同的宏觀資訊開始出現在所有銷售管道的所有食品和可自由支配支出上。我們仍然對我們能夠實現低個位數成長感到樂觀。這主要將以銷量的形式出現，因為我們在第一季有一點價格，但隨著我們的前進，你會看到價格的影響本身就會顯現出來。因此，從我們目前的情況來看，我們仍然認為我們可以實現以銷售為主導的低個位數成長。

Awesome. And then also just a quickly follow-up on Jim's question as well. I mean, I guess there's been some concern that 2024 margins will just be, I guess, we'll call it, flat to modestly up, right? I mean, I guess, just trying to get a sense for sort of how you guys feel on margins sort of coming out of 1Q. I mean, it doesn't really sound like you've seen much relief on the cost front. I mean, I guess, do you guys feel like you're in a good place to really make progress on margins this year?

驚人的。然後也是對吉姆問題的快速跟進。我的意思是，我想有人擔心 2024 年的利潤率將只是持平或略有上升，對嗎？我的意思是，我想，只是想了解一下你們對第一季的利潤率有何感受。我的意思是，聽起來您並沒有看到成本方面有太大的緩解。我的意思是，我想，你們覺得今年你們在利潤率方面確實有了進步嗎？

Yes, great question. So I think the overall outlook is consistent with what you said flat to slightly up on margins. From a tailwind standpoint, we've got a nice productivity program. We're kicking in our value engineering program. And so that should help us, but the commodity basket has neutralized. We're not seeing the inflation. Now we're not seeing deflation yet when we look at the total basket.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我認為整體前景與您所說的利潤率持平或略有上升是一致的。從有利的角度來看，我們有一個很好的生產力計劃。我們正在啟動價值工程計劃。這應該對我們有幫助，但商品籃子已經中和。我們沒有看到通貨膨脹。現在，當我們查看總體籃子時，我們還沒有看到通貨緊縮。

So the key watch-outs for us is -- we hit on already earlier in the call, is kind of the pressure to spend back. And that's a TBD for us overall. But I think overall, we are -- we've got a lot of initiatives to try to drive more margin growth, but we're cautious about our outlook given kind of some of the macro trends we've hit on.

因此，我們需要重點關注的是——我們在電話會議的早些時候就已經提到了，投資的壓力。這對我們整體來說是一個待定的問題。但我認為總的來說，我們有很多舉措來嘗試推動更多的利潤成長，但考慮到我們所遇到的一些宏觀趨勢，我們對前景持謹慎態度。

Our next question comes from Andrew Wolf of CL King.

我們的下一個問題來自 CL King 的 Andrew Wolf。

I would like to follow up on pricing and promotional outlook. So maybe a different way to ask about it is if things are finally hitting normal, first, are there -- how is wage rate inflation, which I guess is this -- believe as the second biggest factor cost. Is that still normal just as we kind of think about regardless of pricing power, what's going on with your cost structure. And any other input, energy or anything else in the cost structure, both controllable, scaling up Horse Cave and perhaps not controllable like input costs.

我想跟進定價和促銷前景。因此，也許另一種提問方式是，事情是否最終恢復正常，首先，工資率通膨如何，我猜是這樣的，相信這是第二大因素成本。這是否仍然正常，就像我們思考無論定價能力如何，您的成本結構發生了什麼一樣。成本結構中的任何其他投入、能源或其他任何東西都是可控的，擴大了 Horse Cave 的規模，但可能不像投入成本那樣可控。

Yes. When you -- so when you look at the other drivers, we -- from our perspective, we're still seeing higher than historic labor inflation but not like we saw a couple of years ago or a year ago. So that's moderated to low to mid-single digit. And then as we look at the rest of the basket, we're looking at similar rates of inflation impacting our P&L, and that's where our cost savings program kicks in. The only other one-off is the depreciation from the Horse Cave expansion, which has started to hit our P&L and will continue to be amortized over the future years.

是的。當你——所以當你看看其他驅動因素時，我們——從我們的角度來看，我們仍然看到高於歷史水平的勞動力通膨，但不像幾年前或一年前那樣。因此，這一數字已降至低至中個位數。然後，當我們查看籃子的其餘部分時，我們會看到類似的通貨膨脹率對我們的損益產生影響，這就是我們的成本節約計劃開始發揮作用的地方。唯一的另一個一次性因素是馬洞擴建帶來的折舊，它已經開始影響我們的損益，並將在未來幾年繼續攤提。

Got it. So back to just sort of the normalization theme. So it sounds like your own spending, consumer spending, direct spending is normal or getting there. Just could you frame your pricing conversations with the retailers, in particular -- in that sense, I mean, can you go to them with your cost structure, like you have in the past and said, Yes, commodity costs are flat, but we still got this? Or are they kind of in no mood to hear that given where the volume has been for the industry?

知道了。回到正常化主題。所以聽起來你自己的支出、消費者支出、直接支出是正常的或達到目標了。您能否與零售商進行定價對話，特別是- 從這個意義上說，我的意思是，您能否向他們介紹您的成本結構，就像您過去所做的那樣，並說，是的，商品成本是持平的，但我們還有這個嗎？或者考慮到該行業的銷量，他們是否沒有心情聽到這個消息？

And lastly, just to kind of revisit your own view on promotion, how promotional you want to be with the -- on the shelf with the retailers.

最後，只是想重新審視一下您自己對促銷的看法，您希望如何在零售商的貨架上進行促銷。

Sure. So we got a couple of things there. I want to make sure I got my notes right, Andrew. Your first question was how are we thinking about inflation and the need to pass on pricing? And maybe to build on Tom's point, what we're seeing as you look at our basket of commodities, they're essentially flattening out. We are seeing some modest inflation on labor that's a little bit higher than normal, but we feel like we're able to offset that with our productivity program. So if you put this together, we don't expect margin headwind per se from inflation be it the commodity basket or from things like labor.

當然。所以我們在那裡得到了一些東西。我想確保我的筆記正確無誤，安德魯。您的第一個問題是我們如何考慮通貨膨脹以及傳遞定價的必要性？也許以湯姆的觀點為基礎，當你看看我們的一籃子商品時，我們所看到的，它們基本上正在趨於平緩。我們看到勞動力出現小幅通膨，略高於正常水平，但我們認為我們能夠透過生產力計劃來抵消這種影響。因此，如果你把這些放在一起，我們預期利潤率本身不會因通膨而受到阻礙，無論是大宗商品籃子還是勞動力等因素。

So then you sort of press it forward and you think about the retailers, one, we don't think that there's a need for us to go and to talk about elevated pricing and for reasons that I'll get into here in a second, we think that it could probably be disadvantageous. And maybe the way that I would frame this is that I think our economy or we think our economy right now is at a transition point, not an inflection point, but a transition point that's really being brought about by the end of the era of free money.

所以，然後你有點推動它，你會想到零售商，一，我們認為我們沒有必要去討論提高定價的問題，原因我稍後會講到，我們認為這可能是不利的。也許我的框架方式是，我認為我們的經濟或我們認為我們的經濟現在正處於過渡點，不是轉捩點，而是自由時代結束時真正帶來的過渡點。錢。

I think all of us have been doing it long enough that we can remember back when interest rates were at normalized level. And so I think what we're looking at, the context that we're framing this whole situation and is this idea of the end of the era of free money. And what we're seeing then is manifest in the form of resumption of elevated interest rates on credit card debt and other things that people are buying on time. The resumption of student loans, the end of emergency pandemic benefits, such as child tax credits and enhanced SNAP benefits. And when you put all of that together for consumers, this end of this era of free money.

我認為我們所有人都已經這樣做了足夠長的時間，以至於我們可以記得利率處於正常水平時的情況。所以我認為我們正在關注的是我們正在建立整個局勢的背景，以及自由貨幣時代結束的想法。我們所看到的具體表現是信用卡債務和人們按時購買的其他物品的利率恢復上升。恢復學生貸款、終止流行病緊急福利，例如兒童稅收抵免和增強的 SNAP 福利。當你把所有這些都放在一起供消費者使用時，這個免費貨幣時代就結束了。

I think what we're finding is that families are sitting down and they're reworking their sources and uses of cash. and they're having to make trade-offs. And I think what we're starting to see now is depending on where they sit in the economic strata, starting to bite some consumers and families before others.

我認為我們發現，家庭正在坐下來，重新調整現金的來源和用途。他們必須做出權衡。我認為我們現在開始看到的情況取決於他們在經濟階層中的位置，開始先影響一些消費者和家庭。

But I think all of them are starting to sit down and look at sources and uses. And for some of those families, they're saying, "Hey, I want to work more hours to be able to cover the cost of, let's say, student loan resumption". In the case of others, they may be saying I want to do that. And by the way, I also need to start to think about making choices and trade-offs across everything that they're spending on, from experiences to food to discretionary items.

但我認為他們所有人都開始坐下來研究來源和用途。對於其中一些家庭來說，他們會說，「嘿，我想工作更多時間，以便能夠支付學生貸款恢復的費用」。就其他人而言，他們可能會說我想這樣做。順便說一句，我還需要開始考慮在他們花的所有事情上做出選擇和權衡，從體驗到食物再到可自由支配的物品。

Now this brings us into your question on promo. I think the way we're thinking about it is that in this environment, now it's a transition environment from where we are to where we're going, it's going to be really imperative that for us, managing brands, every one of our brand leaders, our sales folks need to be looking at their consumer value equation. The features, the benefits, the brand, right, over the cost to make sure that in this new environment that we're transitioning to, that we continue to bring a relevant value proposition, because consumers are in the process. They're not talking about it, but they're doing this right now. And I think for everybody that plays in our space, we need to be stepping back and asking ourselves some of those fundamental questions.

現在這讓我們進入你關於促銷的問題。我認為我們思考這個問題的方式是，在這種環境下，現在這是一個從我們現在所處的位置到我們要去的地方的過渡環境，對我們來說，管理品牌、我們的每一個品牌都非常重要身為領導者，我們的銷售人員需要考慮他們的消費者價值方程式。功能、優勢、品牌，對的，高於成本，以確保在我們正在過渡的新環境中，我們繼續帶來相關的價值主張，因為消費者正在這個過程中。他們不是在談論它，但他們現在正在這樣做。我認為對於每個在我們這個領域玩耍的人來說，我們需要退後一步，問自己一些基本問題。

And to the degree in which we see our value proposition is under pressure, then we'll think about using things like trade or marketing or even things like Shopper Marketing in-store or Price Pack Architecture and things like that. But the way we're really thinking about this, we're trying to take maybe a little bit more of a strategic view because we don't really think this is going to be a 1 year or a 1-quarter thing. I would submit that what we're working our way into, again, isn't an inflection point like 2007 and 2008. This is a transition point where we just need to make sure that we're continuing to offer a relevant value proposition.

當我們看到我們的價值主張面臨壓力時，我們會考慮使用貿易或行銷之類的東西，甚至是店內購物者行銷或價格包架構之類的東西。但我們真正思考這個問題的方式是，我們試圖採取更多的戰略觀點，因為我們並不真正認為這將是一年或一個季度的事情。我想說的是，我們正在努力進入的並不是像 2007 年和 2008 年那樣的轉折點。這是一個過渡點，我們只需要確保我們繼續提供相關的價值主張。

Great. I guess that's really helpful. And earlier, Dave, you mentioned private label. I assume that -- that's sort of the big event not completely unknown, but the degree to which is private label substitution, I would imagine as a big driver of some of the responses.

偉大的。我想這真的很有幫助。戴夫，早些時候，您提到了自有品牌。我認為——這是一個並非完全未知的大事件，但我認為自有品牌替代的程度是一些反應的重要推動因素。

Yes. So -- and I think it's really -- it's a watch out. So if you look at some of the most recent data, what you're seeing is that the private -- the growth of share of private label is still somewhat modest, right? So you're not seeing a big run to private label. And I would go back to the fact that this transition away from free money is starting to buy consumers in certain demographic segments more than others, and they're making trade-offs. In some cases, they just may be going to shop in different outlets where they feel like they can get value. In some cases, they may start to look at things like private label.

是的。所以——我認為這確實是——需要警惕。因此，如果您查看一些最新數據，您會發現自有品牌份額的成長仍然有些溫和，對嗎？所以你不會看到自有品牌的大發展。我要回到這樣一個事實，即這種從免費資金的轉變開始讓某些人群中的消費者比其他人群更多地購買，並且他們正在做出權衡。在某些情況下，他們可能只是去不同的商店購物，他們覺得在那裡可以獲得價值。在某些情況下，他們可能會開始考慮自有品牌之類的東西。

For us, as we think about our brands, this is stuff that we've done. All of us that have been doing it and while as I can remember brands like (inaudible), where we knew we had to have certain price gaps versus private label because if we crept above those price gaps, our brand was under pressure, right? So that was then. This is now. We need to be doing the same thing on our brands, all of our brands within the context of this environment to make sure the value proposition is right in the absolute, but it's also right versus those other substitutes, whether it's private label or another brand.

對我們來說，當我們思考我們的品牌時，這就是我們所做的事情。我們所有人都在這樣做，雖然我記得像（聽不清楚）這樣的品牌，但我們知道我們與自有品牌必須有一定的價格差距，因為如果我們超越這些價格差距，我們的品牌就會面臨壓力，對嗎？就是這樣。這是現在。我們需要對我們的品牌、我們在這種環境下的所有品牌做同樣的事情，以確保價值主張絕對正確，而且與其他替代品相比，無論是自有品牌還是其他品牌，它也是正確的。

One moment for our next question. Your next question comes from Todd Brooks of The Benchmark Company.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。您的下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的 Todd Brooks。

I want to dig in on the licensed branded product a little bit. First, I was wondering if you had at your fingertips the Arby's number for Q1. You talked about the other 3 key brands.

我想深入了解授權品牌產品。首先，我想知道您是否掌握了第一季的 Arby 號碼。您談到了其他 3 個關鍵品牌。

Give me a second here. Dale, if you get it before I do, fell free...

請稍等一下。戴爾，如果你比我先得到它，你就自由了…

So for the quarter, Todd, it was about $3 million.

托德，這個季度的營收約為 300 萬美元。

Okay. Great. My follow-up and why I needed that data point. What I don't think I maybe understood about the business, I wanted to explore is -- is there a certain seasonality to demand for these products between the September quarter and the June quarter? Because I know we saw it last year, but I thought some of that may have been around Horse Cave and just ramping into the new facility. But again, we've seen a sequential downtick of about by my estimate, almost $7 million here in the September quarter. Can we talk about seasonality for those products? And then I've got a follow-up along that same line of questioning.

好的。偉大的。我的後續行動以及為什麼我需要該數據點。我認為我可能不了解這項業務，但我想探索的是——九月季度和六月季度之間這些產品的需求是否存在一定的季節性？因為我知道我們去年就看到了，但我認為其中一些可能是在 Horse Cave 周圍，並且只是進入新設施。但是，根據我的估計，我們再次看到了連續下降，在 9 月的季度中，下降了近 700 萬美元。我們可以談談這些產品的季節性嗎？然後我會沿著同樣的問題進行後續跟進。

My intuition is that this really isn't a seasonal business. A seasonal business Sister Schubert's a great example of a highly seasonal business where we're going to see a spike over Thanksgiving and Christmas and another spike over Easter. We're going to see -- if we were talking about gravy in the old days, that would be a business with a big seasonal spike.

我的直覺是，這確實不是一個季節性業務。季節性業務舒伯特修女是高度季節性業務的一個很好的例子，我們將在感恩節和聖誕節期間看到高峰，在復活節期間再次出現高峰。我們將會看到，如果我們在過去談論肉汁，那將是一個季節性大幅成長的業務。

With most of our sauces, I think you're going to see that it's more level loaded across periods. I think what you're likely to see that may be driving periods where it's higher and periods when it's lower, a couple of things, one, when we launched the items a lot of time, we get a lot of elevated display endcaps that will drive a spike. So when we lap that, it could come across as something that's unique that's going on. But really, it's -- we're just lapping a period of launch and now it's just selling off of the shelf.

對於我們的大多數醬汁，我想你會發現它在不同時期的負載水平更高。我認為您可能會看到，駕駛時會出現較高的駕駛週期，有時會出現較低的駕駛週期，有幾件事，第一，當我們多次推出這些產品時，我們會得到很多升高的顯示器端蓋，這將驅動一個尖峰。因此，當我們關注它時，它可能被認為是正在發生的獨特事情。但實際上，我們剛剛推出一段時間，現在它只是在貨架上銷售。

I do think that you may see brands like Buffalo Wild Wings that you see more focus on around March Madness and football than you will and others like barbecue items, I think it will move maybe more consistent with that. Olive Garden dressing, I wouldn't expect that to be terribly seasonal. It's a year-round business. There's a little bit of a spike on salads after the first of the year when everybody decides to go on a diet. But again, that's a little bit of a one-off there that I would point to.

我確實認為你可能會看到像Buffalo Wild Wings 這樣的品牌，你會看到比你更關注瘋狂三月和足球的品牌，以及其他像燒烤用品的品牌，我認為它的發展可能會與這一點更加一致。橄欖園調味料，我不認為它是季節性的。這是一項全年營業的業務。元旦之後，當每個人都決定節食時，沙拉的銷售量會增加。但我再次指出，這有點一次性。

Okay. Great. And then my follow-up is, can you Dave or Tom or Dale, can you snapshot for us? If we look at the licensed branded product portfolio, entering the end of this year versus the end of the last calendar year in '22. Can we review how much broader the offerings are, whether it's pack size flavors, but also distribution if Horse Caves' allowed you to open up different channels of distribution? And then maybe we can segue into a discussion of growth outlook for these products across full fiscal '24?

好的。偉大的。然後我的後續行動是，戴夫、湯姆或戴爾，你能為我們拍一張快照嗎？如果我們看一下今年年底的授權品牌產品組合，與 2020 年底相比。如果 Horse Caves 允許您開闢不同的分銷管道，我們是否可以回顧產品的範圍有多大，無論是包裝大小的口味，還是分銷？然後也許我們可以繼續討論這些產品在整個 24 財年的成長前景？

Sure. So why don't I try to do it. I think when you look at the business overall, the change that we're talking about in Q1 for all of our licensing was about $26 million and about 30% of growth. So we continue to feel pretty good about the growth from the proposition overall. Now bringing it into some of the specific products, I'll try to work on that for you off the top of my head here.

當然。那我為什麼不嘗試去做呢。我認為，當你縱觀整個業務時，我們在第一季談論的所有許可的變化約為 2600 萬美元，增長了約 30%。因此，我們仍然對整體提案的成長感到非常滿意。現在，我將把它帶入一些特定的產品中，我將盡力為您解決這個問題。

So I think if you go back into the spring period of last year, we launched -- actually it would have been fall of last year, we launched a 24-ounce size for Chick-fil-A and then on the heels of that, we came out with the barbecue and the Sweet & Spicy Sriracha that really started to go more broadly in distribution, not in the fall, but in the spring.

所以我想，如果你回顧去年春季，我們推出了——實際上是去年秋季，我們推出了 24 盎司規格的福來雞，緊接著，我們推出了燒烤和甜辣是拉差辣醬，它們真正開始更廣泛地分銷，不是在秋天，而是在春天。

In the spring for Chick-fil-A, we also launched the salad dressings and produce that we talked about, 4 flavors of those. And I mentioned on the call there that we did for this quarter, $10 million of retailer sales on those items.

在春季，福來雞我們還推出了我們談到的沙拉醬和農產品，其中有 4 種口味。我在電話會議上提到，我們本季這些產品的零售商銷售額為 1,000 萬美元。

As you go around on Buffalo Wild Wings, if my memory serves me, we launched 2 items, 2 incremental new flavors there. On Olive Garden, we launched a Caesar, which is -- we're very pleased with how it's doing in the marketplace. And we announced the launch of Texas Roadhouse on the last call, but obviously, that's not into the marketplace. We don't expect that to be out until later in this fiscal year as we had showcased for you.

當你在 Buffalo Wild Wings 上逛逛時，如果我沒記錯的話，我們在那裡推出了 2 種產品，2 種增量新口味。在 Olive Garden 上，我們推出了 Caesar，我們對它在市場上的表現非常滿意。我們在最後一次電話會議上宣布推出 Texas Roadhouse，但顯然，這還沒有進入市場。正如我們向您展示的那樣，我們預計該內容要到本財年晚些時候才會發布。

So you add all that together, what's that maybe 7 or 8 SKUs that we brought, probably the hardest driver of those SKUs is the 24-ounce where we're seeing very nice growth. Loyal consumers are trading up to the larger size, but all of them are contributing in some measure. So hopefully, that kind of gives you an idea of what we're doing in terms of growth we brought to the marketplace, phased between the fall and the spring.

所以你把所有這些加在一起，我們帶來的可能是 7 或 8 個 SKU，這些 SKU 中最強勁的驅動力可能是 24 盎司，我們看到了非常好的成長。忠實的消費者正在購買更大的尺寸，但他們都在某種程度上做出了貢獻。因此，希望這能讓您了解我們在秋季和春季之間分階段為市場帶來的成長所做的事情。

In terms of capacity, I would say at this point, we have enough capacity to continue to facilitate the growth of both our own brands and bottles and licenses. So we have no limitations there. We are limiting the number of shifts that we're using in some of these facilities in Horse Cave. So if we saw an opportunity really to go, we would be able to add more ships to sell.

就產能而言，我想說，目前我們有足夠的產能來繼續促進我們自己的品牌、瓶子和許可證的成長。所以我們在那裡沒有限制。我們正在限制 Horse Cave 中部分設施的輪班數量。因此，如果我們真的看到了一個機會，我們將能夠增加更多的船隻來出售。

Yes. I mean overall, we feel really good about the platform. If you go back to '22, we generated 28% growth in terms of net sales. We generated around 30% in '23, and we expect to continue to drive strong growth behind this platform, enabled by all those new items that Dave mentioned as well as the Horse Cave capacity expansion.

是的。我的意思是，總的來說，我們對該平台感覺非常好。如果你回到 22 年，我們的淨銷售額成長了 28%。我們在 23 年創造了約 30% 的收入，我們預計將繼續推動平台背後的強勁成長，這得益於 Dave 提到的所有新項目以及 Horse Cave 產能擴張。

Yes. And as the base gets bigger, obviously, the size of the period-on-period growth numbers will get smaller. We're not going to continue to grow at those sort of rates now that this is growing into a material piece of business for us.

是的。顯然，隨著基數變大，年成長數據的規模將會變小。既然這對我們來說已經成為一項重要的業務，我們就不會繼續以這樣的速度成長。

So with capacity still in Horse Cave, opportunities around, channels that you may have deferred before, club maybe, especially with some of the larger pack sizes, where do we stand on that? And there was some work kind of pre-pandemic on the drug and dollar channels. Don't know where we are now for kind of reopening and revisiting those opportunities. I think you had really good success in drug with the core Olive Garden SKU, if I remember correctly. So I was just wondering about distribution expansion as a source of growth.

因此，鑑於 Horse Cave 的容量仍然存在，周圍的機會、您之前可能推遲的管道、俱樂部，尤其是一些較大的包裝尺寸，我們對此有何立場？在藥物和美元管道上有一些大流行前的工作。不知道我們現在處於什麼位置才能重新開放並重新審視這些機會。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為你們在核心 Olive Garden SKU 的藥物方面取得了巨大的成功。所以我只是想知道分銷擴張是否可以作為成長的來源。

Sure. It continues to be an opportunity, but one of the unique features of a licensed partnership is that our partners are able to weigh in and talk about what channels they want their products and in what channels they don't. So we don't always have the same degree of latitude that we might like. What I can point to more recently is Olive Garden has -- we're building distribution in the Drug channel, and it's continuing to perform well. And in Dollar as well.

當然。這仍然是一個機會，但授權合作夥伴關係的獨特之處之一是我們的合作夥伴能夠參與並討論他們想要在哪些管道獲得產品以及不需要在哪些管道獲得產品。因此，我們並不總是擁有我們可能喜歡的相同程度的自由度。我最近可以指出的是，橄欖園 - 我們正在藥品管道建立分銷，並且繼續表現良好。也是美元。

Buffalo Wild Wings were taken into Club. We're going to have some rotations going on this fall that we're excited about. with Costco and some of the others. So this is very much an active and ongoing discussion, but maybe the nuance here, Todd, is that -- we have to bring our partners along in these discussions, and each of them has maybe different feelings about which channels they want their brand in. So maybe the easiest way to describe it.

Buffalo Wild Wings 被帶入俱樂部。今年秋天我們將進行一些讓我們興奮的輪換。與 Costco 和其他一些公司合作。因此，這是一個非常活躍且持續的討論，但托德，這裡的細微差別可能是——我們必須讓我們的合作夥伴參與這些討論，他們每個人對於他們希望自己的品牌進入哪些渠道可能有不同的感受.所以也許是最簡單的描述方式。

But this also becomes an area where our sales team and our marketing team works to educate, these are restaurant operators. They're smart, sophisticated people, but they're really not in the CPG space. So part of the idea of the partnership as we work with them to bring them along, can't push them, but we work with them to bring them along.

但這也成為我們的銷售團隊和行銷團隊努力教育的領域，他們是餐廳經營者。他們是聰明、老練的人，但他們確實不屬於快速消費品領域。因此，當我們與他們合作以帶動他們前進時，合作夥伴關係的一部分想法是，不能推動他們，但我們與他們合作以帶動他們前進。

Your next question comes from Alton Stump of Loop Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Alton Stump。

Alton might be having a technical difficulty, we can certainly bring him back. If you'd like to go to the next caller, operator?

奧爾頓可能遇到技術困難，我們當然可以把他帶回來。如果您想接聽下一個來電者，接線生？

(Operator Instructions) All right. If there are no further questions, we will now turn the call back to Mr. Ciesinski for his concluding comments.

（操作員指示）好的。如果沒有其他問題，我們現在將把電話轉回給 Ciesinski 先生，請他發表結論性意見。

Thank you, and thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning. We know it's a busy time with lots of companies reporting. So thank you for joining us, and we look forward to talking to you in February when we report our second quarter results. Have a great rest of the day.

謝謝大家，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們知道現在是一個繁忙的時期，有很多公司在報告。感謝您加入我們，我們期待在二月報告第二季度業績時與您交談。祝你這一天好好休息。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。