Maxlinear Inc (MXL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to MaxLinear's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

問候。歡迎參加 MaxLinear 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在將會議交給投資者關係部門的萊斯利‧格林 (Leslie Green)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherry. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on today's conference call, to discuss MaxLinear's third quarter 2023 financial results. Today's call is being hosted by Dr. Kishore Seendripu, CEO; and Steve Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer.

謝謝你，雪莉。大家下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 MaxLinear 2023 年第三季的財務業績。今天的電話會議由執行長 Kishore Seendripu 博士主持；財務長兼首席企業策略長 Steve Litchfield。

After our prepared comments, we will take questions. Our comments today include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including statements relating to our guidance for the fourth quarter 2023, including revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP gross profit margin, GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses, GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate, GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expenses, GAAP and non-GAAP diluted share count.

在我們準備好意見後，我們將回答問題。我們今天的評論包括適用證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括與我們2023 年第四季度的指導相關的陳述，包括收入、公認會計原則和非公認會計原則毛利率、公認會計原則和非公認會計原則營運費用、公認會計原則和非 GAAP 稅率、GAAP 和非 GAAP 利息及其他費用、GAAP 和非 GAAP 攤薄股數。

In addition, we will make forward-looking statements relating to trends, opportunities, execution of our business plan and potential growth and uncertainties in various product and geographic markets, including, without limitation, statements concerning opportunities arising from our broadband, infrastructure, connectivity, industrial multi-market, as well as inventory levels, the timing for the launch of our products and timing of opportunities for improved revenue and market share across our target markets.

此外，我們將做出有關趨勢、機會、我們業務計劃的執行以及各種產品和地理市場的潛在增長和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關我們的寬頻、基礎設施、連接、工業多市場以及庫存水準、推出產品的時機以及提高目標市場收入和市場份額的機會的時機。

These forward-looking statements involve substantial risks and uncertainties, including risks outlined in our Risk Factors section of our recent SEC filings, including from our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2023, which we file today. Any forward-looking statements are made as of today, and MaxLinear has no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. The third quarter 2023 earnings release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at maxlinear.com.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向SEC 提交的文件的風險因素部分中概述的風險，包括我們今天提交的截至2023 年9 月30 日的季度的10-Q 表格中列出的風險。任何前瞻性陳述均截至今日作出，MaxLinear 沒有義務更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述。 2023 年第三季收益發布可在我們網站 maxlinear.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

In addition, we report certain historical financial metrics, including, but not limited to, gross margin, operating margin, operating expenses, interest and other expense on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. We encourage investors to review the detailed reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP presentations in the press release available on our website. We do not provide a reconciliation of non-GAAP guidance for future periods because of the inherent uncertainty associated with our ability to project certain [future] charges, including stock-based compensation and its related tax effects. As well as potential impairments.

此外，我們也報告某些歷史財務指標，包括但不限於公認會計原則和非公認會計原則的毛利率、營業利潤、營業費用、利息和其他費用。我們鼓勵投資者在我們網站上的新聞稿中查看我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 簡報的詳細調整表。由於我們預測某些[未來]費用（包括基於股票的薪酬及其相關稅收影響）的能力存在固有的不確定性，因此我們不會提供未來期間的非公認會計準則指引的調節表。以及潛在的損害。

Non-GAAP financial measures discussed today are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for comparable GAAP financial measures. We are providing this information because management believes it to be useful to investors as it reflects how management measures our business.

今天討論的非公認會計原則財務指標並不意味著被孤立地考慮或作為可比較公認會計原則財務指標的替代品。我們提供這些資訊是因為管理層認為它對投資者有用，因為它反映了管理層如何衡量我們的業務。

Lastly, this call is also being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website for 2 weeks. And now let me turn the call over to Dr. Kishore Seendripu, CEO of MaxLinear.

最後，本次電話會議也將進行網路直播，並將在我們的網站上提供兩週的重播。現在讓我將電話轉給 MaxLinear 執行長 Kishore Seendripu 博士。

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon, everyone. In Q3, our revenues were $135.5 million. And non-GAAP gross margin was 60.8%. Infrastructure revenues, specifically wireless infrastructure was the main highlight, up 1% sequentially and 40% year-over-year.

謝謝你，萊斯利，大家下午好。第三季度，我們的營收為 1.355 億美元。非 GAAP 毛利率為 60.8%。基礎設施收入，特別是無線基礎設施收入是主要亮點，較上季成長 1%，較去年同期成長 40%。

Our financial results and outlook continue to reflect the channel inventory overhang, especially in the broadband and WiFi markets. We expect the FX of the inventory to persist into 2024 and Steve will talk more about the actions we are taking to align our financial structure. We continue to make strong progress growing our infrastructure business.

我們的財務表現和前景繼續反映出通路庫存過剩，特別是在寬頻和 WiFi 市場。我們預計庫存的匯率將持續到 2024 年，史蒂夫將更多地談論我們為調整財務結構所採取的行動。我們的基礎設施業務持續取得強勁進展。

Infrastructure represents $50 million in Q3 revenue and has grown substantially since its inception only a few years ago. With the infrastructure in wireless, the expanding 5G global rollout of new millimeter wave backhaul technologies and multi-band and hybrid millimeter wave and microwave backhaul radios, is allowing us to significantly increase the silicon content per platform of our modem and RF transceiver products.

基礎設施在第三季的收入中佔 5000 萬美元，並且自幾年前成立以來已經大幅增長。借助無線基礎設施，5G 在全球範圍內不斷推出新的毫米波回程技術以及多頻段、混合毫米波和微波回程無線電，使我們能夠顯著增加調製解調器和射頻收發器產品每個平台的矽含量。

In our high-speed optical data center interconnect market, the ongoing adoption of AI in the cloud is driving exciting design win activity for our 5-nanometer CMOS, Keystone 800 gigabit optical PAM4 solution. We have ongoing qualifications in multiple hyperscale and enterprise opportunities for which we expect to begin ramping in mid-2024.

在我們的高速光學資料中心互連市場中，雲中 AI 的持續採用正在推動我們的 5 奈米 CMOS、Keystone 800 千兆位元光學 PAM4 解決方案贏得令人興奮的設計活動。我們在多個超大規模和企業機會方面擁有持續的資質，預計將於 2024 年中期開始增加。

During Q3, we also announced a new member of our Keystone family, a 5-nanometer Keystone PAM4 DSP per 400 gigabit and 800 gigabit application, with integrated VCSEL laser drivers. This product enables best-in-class power consumption for 800 gigabit short-reach optical transceivers and active optical cables for data centers, AI and machine learning platforms. And high-performance computing applications.

在第三季度，我們還宣布了 Keystone 系列的新成員，即適用於 400 GB 和 800 GB 應用的 5 奈米 Keystone PAM4 DSP，具有整合的 VCSEL 雷射驅動器。該產品可為資料中心、人工智慧和機器學習平台的 800 Gb 短距離光收發器和主動光纜提供一流的功耗。以及高效能運算應用。

Earlier this month, at the OCP Global Summit in San Jose, we also demonstrated our Keystone solution supporting active electrical cables or AECs. Keystone is the only 5-nanometer product with DSP available today for the AEC market, providing best-in-class power consumption and programmability.

本月早些時候，在聖荷西舉行的 OCP 全球高峰會上，我們也展示了支援主動電纜或 AEC 的 Keystone 解決方案。 Keystone 是目前 AEC 市場上唯一一款具有 DSP 的 5 奈米產品，可提供一流的功耗和可編程性。

We're also making exciting progress with our Panther III series of storage accelerators for the enterprise all-flash array and hybrid storage appliance systems. We've entered initial mass production ramp with the (inaudible) leading enterprise storage appliance maker and have visibility into additional new design win volume production ramps next year. We expect this business to double in 2024, with continued strong growth in '25 and beyond.

我們也在企業全快閃陣列和混合式儲存設備系統的 Panther III 系列儲存加速器方面取得了令人興奮的進展。我們已經與（聽不清楚）領先的企業儲存設備製造商一起進入了最初的批量生產階段，並且可以預見明年更多新設計將贏得批量生產。我們預計該業務將在 2024 年翻一番，並在 25 年及以後持續強勁成長。

Turning to broadband, despite the near-term challenging environment, the longer-term outlook for the broadband access networks is solid as the industry migrates from Legacy DSL and older PON technologies to 10-gigabit PON fiber access. We continue to ramp with the major North American service provider and are layering additional design wins, including another Tier 1 service provider, which will begin to contribute revenue in 2024.

轉向寬頻，儘管近期環境充滿挑戰，但隨著業界從傳統 DSL 和較舊的 PON 技術遷移到 10 Gb PON 光纖接入，寬頻接入網路的長期前景仍然穩固。我們繼續與北美主要服務提供者合作，並贏得更多設計勝利，包括另一家一級服務供應商，將於 2024 年開始貢獻收入。

With our industry-leading single-chip integrated fiber PON and 10-gigabit processing gateway and connectivity solutions. We expect continued strong design win traction leading to a multiyear fiber broadband growth cycle. Recently, we also announced Puma 8, our DOCSIS 4.0 system-on-chip cable modem and gateway platform, which enables the speed, latency and low power consumption necessary for next-generation 10-gigabit service rates for MSOs. We expect to see initial DOCSIS 4.0 launches in the market as early as the end of 2024.

憑藉我們業界領先的單晶片整合光纖 PON 和 10 Gb 處理網關及連接解決方案。我們預計持續強勁的設計將贏得吸引力，從而導致多年的光纖寬頻成長週期。最近，我們也發布了 Puma 8，這是我們的 DOCSIS 4.0 系統單晶片數據機和網關平台，它可為 MSO 提供下一代 10 Gb 服務速率所需的速度、延遲和低功耗。我們預計最快將於 2024 年底在市場上首次推出 DOCSIS 4.0。

In connectivity, the design activity for our Wi-Fi 7 is robust, and we anticipate early revenues coming in the second half of '24. Wi-Fi 7 has the enhanced ability to efficiently manage the increasing number of connected devices, which have grown tenfold since 2018 and the higher bandwidth requirements in the home. As a result, globally, service providers are embracing the transition to Wi-Fi 7 to improve both user experience and performance. For MaxLinear, Wi-Fi 7 has the exciting potential to drive significant ASP growth and higher attach rates in our Broadband Access platforms versus previous generations.

在連線方面，我們的 Wi-Fi 7 設計活動非常活躍，我們預計早期收入將在 2024 年下半年實現。 Wi-Fi 7 增強了有效管理日益增多的連網裝置（自 2018 年以來已成長十倍）的能力以及家庭中更高的頻寬要求。因此，全球服務供應商都在擁抱向 Wi-Fi 7 的過渡，以改善使用者體驗和效能。對於 MaxLinear 來說，Wi-Fi 7 具有令人興奮的潛力，可推動我們的寬頻存取平台與前幾代產品相比顯著的 ASP 成長和更高的連線率。

Moving to Ethernet connectivity. We continue to build on our core portfolio of 1-gigabit Ethernet and 2.5-gigabit Ethernet PHY technologies. We not only offer single and quad 1-gigabit Ethernet and 2.5-gigabit Ethernet PHYs. But in Q3, we started sampling the industry's first Octal 2.5-gigabit Ethernet PHY-Switch product. This new product family of switch, significantly expands our addressable market by $300 million through 2027 and addresses both enterprise and SMB switch markets. As well as the gateway and router markets.

轉向乙太網路連線。我們繼續建構 1 吉比特乙太網路和 2.5 吉比特乙太網路 PHY 技術的核心產品組合。我們不僅提供單一和四個 1 吉比特乙太網路和 2.5 吉比特乙太網路 PHY。但在第三季度，我們開始對業界首款八路 2.5 Gb 乙太網路 PHY 交換器產品進行採樣。到 2027 年，這個新的交換器產品系列將使我們的潛在市場大幅擴大 3 億美元，同時滿足企業和中小企業交換器市場的需求。以及網關和路由器市場。

We expect today's more than 2 billion copper, 1-gigabit Ethernet ports in the market or existing CAT5 cabling to transition to an optimized and enhanced 25-gigabit Ethernet offering. With a strong design win activity, we expect to begin revenue ramp in the first half of 2024. As we head into 2024, we are laying the critical groundwork for future growth with robust design win activity and continued technology innovation.

我們預計當今市場上超過 20 億個銅質 1 吉比特乙太網路連接埠或現有 CAT5 佈線將過渡到優化和增強的 25 吉比特乙太網路產品。憑藉強勁的設計獲勝活動，我們預計收入將在 2024 年上半年開始成長。隨著我們進入 2024 年，我們正在透過強勁的設計獲勝活動和持續的技術創新為未來的成長奠定重要的基礎。

Even as we drive operating efficiencies to navigate near-term headwinds, we are excited that many of our investments, over the past several years in infrastructure, broadband access, connectivity in high-performance analog markets are now poised to contribute meaningful revenue.

儘管我們提高營運效率以應對近期的不利因素，但令我們感到興奮的是，過去幾年我們在高性能模擬市場的基礎設施、寬頻接入、連接方面的許多投資現在有望貢獻可觀的收入。

With that, let me turn the call over to Steve Litchfield, our Chief Financial Officer and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer. Steve?

接下來，讓我將電話轉給我們的財務長兼首席企業策略長史蒂夫·利奇菲爾德 (Steve Litchfield)。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Kishore. Total revenue for the third quarter was $135.5 million, down 26% versus Q2 and down 53% year-over-year. Broadband revenue was $34 million, down 36% versus Q2 and down 71% year-over-year. Connectivity revenue in the quarter was $15 million, down 60% sequentially and down 82% year-over-year.

謝謝，基肖爾。第三季總營收為 1.355 億美元，比第二季下降 26%，年減 53%。寬頻收入為 3,400 萬美元，比第二季下降 36%，年減 71%。該季度的連接收入為 1500 萬美元，環比下降 60%，年減 82%。

Our infrastructure end market continued to grow in Q3 as a result of solid demand and growing market opportunity. Infrastructure had revenue of $50 million, up 1% versus the prior quarter and 40% year-over-year.

由於需求強勁和市場機會不斷成長，我們的基礎設施終端市場在第三季持續成長。基礎設施收入為 5,000 萬美元，季增 1%，年增 40%。

Lastly, our industrial and multimarket revenue was $36 million in Q3, down 16% sequentially and 24% year-over-year. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter were approximately 54.6% and 60.8% of revenue. The delta between GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin in the third quarter was primarily driven by $8.3 million of acquisition-related intangible asset amortization.

最後，第三季我們的工業和多市場收入為 3,600 萬美元，季減 16%，年減 24%。第三季 GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率分別約為營收的 54.6% 和 60.8%。第三季 GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率之間的差異主要是由與收購相關的無形資產攤銷 830 萬美元推動的。

Third quarter GAAP operating expenses were $91.8 million, including stock-based compensation and performance-based equity accruals of $8.2 million, combined and acquisition and integration costs of $2.2 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses in Q3 were $75.1 million, down $7.3 million versus Q2 at the low end of our guidance range. Non-GAAP operating margin for Q3 was 5%. GAAP interest and other expenses during the quarter was $23.7 million, driven by the ticking fee from the debt commitment associated with the terminated Silicon Motion transaction.

第三季 GAAP 營運費用為 9,180 萬美元，包括基於股票的薪酬和基於績效的應計股本 820 萬美元，合併以及收購和整合成本為 220 萬美元。第三季非 GAAP 營運費用為 7,510 萬美元，比第二季減少 730 萬美元，處於我們指引範圍的下限。第三季非 GAAP 營業利益率為 5%。本季 GAAP 利息和其他費用為 2,370 萬美元，主要是由於與已終止的慧榮交易相關的債務承諾產生的費用。

Non-GAAP interest and other expense during the quarter was $5.3 million. In Q3, cash flow using -- used in operating activities was $12.8 million. We exited Q3 of '23 with approximately $203 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Our days sales outstanding for the third quarter was approximately 106 days, up from the previous quarter due to shipment linearity.

本季非 GAAP 利息和其他費用為 530 萬美元。第三季度，用於經營活動的現金流量為 1,280 萬美元。 23 年第三季結束時，我們持有約 2.03 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。由於出貨線性，我們第三季的應收銷售天數約為 106 天，比上一季增加。

Our gross inventory turns were 1.4%, down from Q2 levels. As Kishore mentioned, we've taken meaningful actions to align our cost structure with the current environment, and we expect to begin to see the benefit in Q4. These actions include a head count reduction, site consolidation to drive efficiency and scale at our primary sites and more prioritization around the projects, that we believe will drive growth over the coming years.

我們的總庫存週轉率為 1.4%，低於第二季的水準。正如 Kishore 所提到的，我們已經採取了有意義的行動，使我們的成本結構與當前環境保持一致，我們預計將在第四季度開始看到好處。這些行動包括減少人員數量、進行站點整合以提高主要站點的效率和規模，以及圍繞專案確定更多優先級，我們相信這將推動未來幾年的成長。

MaxLinear has a solid track record of managing our business through downturns with strong fiscal discipline and focused spending. This concludes the discussion of our Q3 financial results. With that, let me turn to the guidance for Q4 of 2023. We currently expect revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 to be between $115 million and $135 million.

MaxLinear 在透過嚴格的財政紀律和集中支出來管理我們的業務度過經濟低迷時期方面擁有良好的記錄。關於我們第三季財務業績的討論到此結束。接下來，讓我談談 2023 年第四季的指引。我們目前預計 2023 年第四季的營收將在 1.15 億美元至 1.35 億美元之間。

Looking at Q4 by end market, we expect connectivity and industrial multimarket to be up and broadband and infrastructure to be down quarter-over-quarter. We expect fourth quarter GAAP profit margin to be approximately 52.5% to 55.5% and non-GAAP gross profit margin to be in the range of 59.5% and 62.5% of revenue. Gross margin continues to be stable despite lower unit volumes with the range being driven by the combination of near-term product, customer and end market mix.

從終端市場來看第四季度，我們預計連接和工業多元市場將環比成長，而寬頻和基礎設施將環比下降。我們預計第四季度 GAAP 利潤率約為營收的 52.5% 至 55.5%，非 GAAP 毛利率將在營收的 59.5% 至 62.5% 之間。儘管單位銷售量有所下降，但毛利率仍保持穩定，該範圍是由近期產品、客戶和終端市場組合共同推動的。

We expect Q4 2023 GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $125 million to $135 million. We expect Q4 2023 non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $72 million to $78 million. We expect our Q4 GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expense to be negligible. We expect our Q4 GAAP and non-GAAP diluted share count to be between $82.5 million to $83.5 million.

我們預計 2023 年第四季 GAAP 營運費用將在 1.25 億美元至 1.35 億美元之間。我們預計 2023 年第四季非 GAAP 營運費用將在 7,200 萬美元至 7,800 萬美元之間。我們預期第四季的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 利息和其他費用可以忽略不計。我們預計第四季度 GAAP 和非 GAAP 攤薄後的股票數量將在 8,250 萬美元至 8,350 萬美元之間。

In closing, we continue to navigate a dynamic environment in Q4, but are laying important groundwork in strategic applications that will drive our future growth. Our solid product innovation and execution in Wi-Fi, fiber broadband, access gateways, Ethernet and wireless infrastructure has positioned us well across a number of exciting emerging markets. As always, we will continue our strong focus on operational efficiency, fiscal discipline and shareholder value, as we optimize for today and plan for an exciting future.

最後，我們在第四季繼續應對充滿活力的環境，但正在為策略應用奠定重要基礎，這將推動我們未來的成長。我們在 Wi-Fi、光纖寬頻、存取網關、乙太網路和無線基礎設施方面紮實的產品創新和執行力使我們在許多令人興奮的新興市場中佔據有利地位。一如既往，我們將繼續高度關注營運效率、財務紀律和股東價值，優化今天並規劃令人興奮的未來。

With that, I'd like to open up the call for questions. Operator?

至此，我想開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

My first question is on broadband and connectivity. Obviously, these are bulk down quite materially year-over-year from this inventory digestion. It does sound like connectivity may have found the bottom as you're guiding for growth there. First of all, I just want to make sure you confirm that. And then second of all, on broadband, are you seeing any sort of bottoming at all in that business given its $34 million run rate?

我的第一個問題是關於寬頻和連接。顯然，由於庫存消化，這些數量比去年同期大幅下降。聽起來，當你指導成長時，連通性可能已經觸底。首先，我只想確保你確認這一點。其次，在寬頻方面，鑑於其 3,400 萬美元的運行率，您是否看到該業務觸底？

Yes, Tore. So you're right. And I think you're also rightly looking at broadband and connectivity. Somewhat together, they have been influenced by some of the similar dynamics of just the massive amount of inventory that we've seen in the channel. It's definitely persisted more than, I think, what we had anticipated. But you're correct in -- we did say that we would see connectivity start to move up a little bit in Q4.

是的，托雷。所以你是對的。我認為您對寬頻和連接的關注也是正確的。在某種程度上，它們受到了我們在頻道中看到的大量庫存的一些類似動態的影響。我認為，它的持續時間肯定比我們預期的要長。但你是對的——我們確實說過，我們會看到連接性在第四季度開始略有上升。

I think for both broadband and connectivity, while connectivity has some growth drivers, as we've talked about over time, that are a little bit better. I mean both are still being influenced by inventory in the channel, and I would expect to see that last through kind of Q1, maybe even some residuals in Q2, but we are seeing an improvement. I mean, we talked last quarter about bookings. I think we're starting to see some bookings. It's still early days. They're not super robust by any means, but there are some encouraging signs, nonetheless.

我認為對於寬頻和連線來說，雖然連線有一些成長驅動因素，正如我們一直以來所討論的那樣，但情況要好一些。我的意思是，兩者仍然受到渠道庫存的影響，我預計這種情況會持續到第一季度，甚至可能在第二季度出現一些殘留，但我們正在看到有所改善。我的意思是，我們上個季度討論過預訂問題。我想我們已經開始看到一些預訂了。現在還為時過早。無論如何，它們不是超級強大，但仍然有一些令人鼓舞的跡象。

Great. And on infrastructure, obviously, that was the highlight this quarter. You're expecting that to come down in Q4. I'm just hoping you could talk a little bit about the extent of the decline. And is this basically just sort of like volatility because obviously, it was up a lot and maybe it's coming back down. But yes, in any way we should think about infrastructure for the next few quarters would be great.

偉大的。顯然，在基礎設施方面，這是本季的亮點。您預計這一數字會在第四季下降。我只是希望你能談談下降的程度。這基本上有點像波動性嗎，因為顯然，它上漲了很多，也許又回落了。但是，是的，無論如何，我們應該考慮未來幾季的基礎設施將會很棒。

Yes. So infrastructure, I mean, I think we've been really pleased with infrastructure. I think we're making a tremendous amount of progress in a business that we've been investing in heavily for a long time. I think as we spoke over the last couple of quarters, the first half of the year was extremely strong. That carried through into Q3. But we still see some of those product ramps, particularly on wireless infrastructure, kind of slowdown that can be lumpy. And so we can see some slowness in Q4 that probably carries over to the beginning of the year before it starts to pick back up and grow in 2024.

是的。所以基礎設施，我的意思是，我認為我們對基礎設施非常滿意。我認為我們在長期大力投資的業務上正在取得巨大進展。我認為正如我們在過去幾個季度中所說的那樣，今年上半年的表現非常強勁。這一直延續到第三季。但我們仍然看到其中一些產品的成長，特別是在無線基礎設施方面，這種放緩可能是不穩定的。因此，我們可以看到第四季度的一些放緩可能會延續到年初，然後在 2024 年開始回升和成長。

And there are several contributors beyond wireless, right? I mean, in fact, optical data center investments, we're very confident in the progress we're making. We expect to see ramps in the middle of next year. We're going through interop cycles right now and a lot of design win activity going on, whether it is in transceiver products or in active optical cables or even active electrical cables, right?

除了無線之外還有其他一些貢獻者，對嗎？我的意思是，事實上，在光數據中心投資方面，我們對所取得的進展非常有信心。我們預計將在明年年中看到坡道。我們現在正在經歷互通週期，並且正在進行大量設計獲勝活動，無論是收發器產品還是有源光纜甚至有源電纜，對吧？

And then over on top of that, there is our storage accelerators, which we have not spent time much, a lot of great design win traction, a very, very strong design win pipeline. It's going to double next year into high teens, if you will. And then beyond that, is going to keep growing very robustly for the next few years.

除此之外，還有我們的儲存加速器，我們沒有花太多時間，很多偉大的設計贏得了關注，一個非常非常強大的設計贏得管道。如果你願意的話，明年這個數字將會翻一番，達到十幾歲。除此之外，未來幾年將持續保持強勁成長。

You want to keep in mind that infrastructure lasts -- revenues last a long period of time. That's why they're -- so likewise, they have a long leading time. So on the -- all in all, our anticipation is over the next 5 years, we should be able to get to double our infrastructure revenue from today's $200 million run rate. To maybe in the $0.5 billion vicinity. I mean, that's the ultimate goal we are after, and we feel that we're making very good progress towards it.

您要記住，基礎設施是可持續的—收入會持續很長一段時間。這就是為什麼他們——同樣，他們有很長的領先時間。因此，總而言之，我們的預期是在未來 5 年內，我們的基礎設施收入應該能夠在目前 2 億美元的運作率基礎上翻倍。可能在 5 億美元附近。我的意思是，這是我們追求的最終目標，我們覺得我們正在朝著這個目標取得非常好的進展。

Our next question is from Quinn Bolten with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolten。

I guess maybe a follow-up on Tore's question. Obviously, this inventory correction has lasted longer and causing a deeper revenue trough. But as you look to next year, can you give us any sense how much of your ownership in the channel -- these businesses -- connectivity and broadband down well more than 50% peak to trough.

我想也許是托雷問題的後續。顯然，這種庫存調整持續的時間更長，並造成了更深的收入低谷。但是，當您展望明年時，您能否告訴我們您在通路（這些業務）中的所有權——連接和寬頻從高峰到低谷下降了 50% 以上。

Do you have any sense what natural run rate demand is? What kind of snapback might you see, once we flushed this current inventory? And then just any thoughts on all of the government spending or government funds that are available for broadband infrastructure? When does that start to benefit this business?

您知道自然運轉率需求是什麼嗎？一旦我們清空當前庫存，您可能會看到什麼樣的反彈？那麼對可用於寬頻基礎設施的所有政府支出或政府資金有什麼想法嗎？這什麼時候開始對這項業務有利？

Yes, Quinn. So you're right. I mean, it's definitely been worse than anticipated. I mean there's been a big build-up. We've seen some kind of bad practices, some overbuilding definitely over the last couple of years. That's kind of playing out right now. The common question that we get is what is it recover to and when? I guess I would just say that we're confident that we're kind of seeing the bottoming here.

是的，奎因。所以你是對的。我的意思是，情況肯定比預期的更糟。我的意思是，已經有了很大的累積。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經看到了一些不好的做法，其中肯定有一些過度建設。現在就是這樣的情況。我們遇到的常見問題是恢復到什麼程度以及何時恢復？我想我只想說，我們有信心看到這裡已經觸底。

I -- you raised a couple of good points about the government spending that we've highlighted. We have seen CapEx commitments. You've seen a great transition to PON on more rural areas, deploying more broadband and more broadband upgrades. I think we continue to see that the outlook that our customers and the service providers in general, have is the outlook does remain very good.

我——你對我們強調的政府支出提出了一些很好的觀點。我們已經看到了資本支出承諾。您已經看到更多農村地區向 PON 的巨大轉變，部署了更多寬頻並進行了更多寬頻升級。我認為我們繼續看到我們的客戶和服務提供者總體上的前景仍然非常好。

So thus, our excitement in some of Kishore's remarks around WiFi, Wi-Fi 7, some of our PON business. So there are some exciting things going on. some of the bigger money like the bead money and some of that just part of that Infrastructure Bill starts to be deployed, I should say, it gets allocated at the end of next year.

因此，我們對 Kishore 關於 WiFi、Wi-Fi 7 和我們的一些 PON 業務的言論感到興奮。所以有一些令人興奮的事情正在發生。一些更大的資金，例如珠子資金，還有一些只是基礎設施法案的一部分，我應該說，它將在明年年底分配。

So it's still a little ways off, but we're seeing ramped upgrades in Europe, in the U.S. over the next 2 to 3 years. So we still have good visibility on this and do expect to see these upgrades. But in the meantime, unfortunately, we're having to work through this inventory.

所以還有一點距離，但我們看到歐洲和美國在未來 2 到 3 年內將進行升級。因此，我們對此仍然有很好的了解，並且確實希望看到這些升級。但不幸的是，同時，我們必須清理這個清單。

And you guys thought last quarter that September would be the bottom. Obviously, you've updated that guidance today with December being down. Are you willing at all to make a comment, do you think December is the bottom? Steve, you mentioned inventory overhang probably continues through at least Q1 and maybe residually into Q2. Could -- could Q1 be down from the fourth quarter? Or is it just too early to call? And then I'll have a quick follow-up.

你們認為上個季度九月將是底部。顯然，隨著 12 月的到來，您今天更新了該指導。你是否願意發表評論，你認為12月是底部嗎？史蒂夫，您提到庫存過剩可能至少持續到第一季度，甚至可能持續到第二季​​度。第一季會比第四季下降嗎？還是現在打電話還太早？然後我會進行快速跟進。

Yes. So if I recall correctly. So last quarter, we talked about Q4, expecting somewhat of a modest improvement, but we didn't say we would be out of the woods on the inventory side. We expected inventory to last into next year. But that being said, we thought we would see more of a recovery, and we didn't see that. So that's correct.

是的。所以如果我沒記錯的話。因此，上個季度，我們談到了第四季度，預計會有一定程度的改善，但我們並沒有說我們會在庫存方面擺脫困境。我們預計庫存將持續到明年。但話雖這麼說，我們認為我們會看到更多的復甦，但我們沒有看到這一點。所以這是正確的。

As we look out into next year, what's the shape of that look like? It feels like we get back to the normal seasonality in our business. I wouldn't be surprised to see softness in Q1, but then you start to build off of that as we normally would. Our Q2 and Q3 -- Q3, as you know, have been historically much stronger than, say, Q1 and Q4.

當我們展望明年時，它的形狀是什麼樣的？感覺我們的業務又回到了正常的季節性。看到第一季的疲軟我不會感到驚訝，但隨後你會像我們通常一樣開始以此為基礎。如你所知，我們的第二季和第三季——從歷史上看，第三季比第一季和第四季要強得多。

And so I think there are some dynamics of seasonality that are starting to play a role again. But I think more than anything right now, it's just getting through the rest of the inventory that's sitting in the channel.

因此，我認為季節性的一些動態又開始發揮作用。但我認為現在最重要的是，它只是清理渠道中的其餘庫存。

Got it. And then just quickly, you mentioned some of the actions you're taking, including reduction in 4 site consolidation, prioritization of certain projects yet. Your guidance for OpEx, I think, is flattish sequentially in December, kind of in line with, where we were already looking for OpEx to be in Q4. And so I guess I -- I didn't see much of a change in the OpEx outlook. Are these options -- sorry, the cost reduction plans you've talked about, does that kick in really more in the first half of next year is $75 million the right run rate kind of as a baseline? Or do you think it could move lower next year?

知道了。然後很快，您提到了您正在採取的一些行動，包括減少 4 個站點的整合、確定某些項目的優先順序。我認為，您對 12 月份營運支出的指導是連續持平的，這與我們已經在尋找第四季度營運支出的情況一致。所以我想我沒有看到營運支出前景有太大變化。這些選項是否——抱歉，您談到的成本削減計劃，明年上半年的投入是否真的更多，即 7500 萬美元，正確的運行率作為基準？或者您認為明年它可能會更低嗎？

So, I'll comment a little bit on just overall expense reduction efforts, right? So we did start early in the year. We've made some changes. And then more recently, we've made some additional changes that will start to impact Q4 and beyond. So you don't see so much in the Q4 time frame just because it's beginning now.

那麼，我將就整體費用削減工作發表一些評論，對吧？所以我們確實在今年年初就開始了。我們做了一些改變。最近，我們做了一些額外的更改，這些更改將開始影響第四季及以後的時間。因此，您在第四季度的時間範圍內不會看到太多，因為它現在才開始。

You'll see that continue to come down throughout next year, pretty linearly. Sometimes that's masked a little bit by some of the NRE that we take as an offset to OpEx. And -- but I would expect to see the overall OpEx number decline throughout the year. And so I think -- I mean, if I was to put a number on it, it's probably $285 million to $290 million next year. So that's the kind of the size of the decline, and that also offset some additional NREs that we had taken, which were much larger in 2023.

您會發現明年全年該數字將繼續呈線性下降。有時，我們將一些 NRE 視為 OpEx 的補償，從而掩蓋了這一點。而且 - 但我預計全年總體營運支出數量會下降。所以我想——我的意思是，如果我要給出一個數字的話，明年可能是 2.85 億美元到 2.9 億美元。這就是下降的規模，這也抵消了我們採取的一些額外的 NRE，這些 NRE 在 2023 年要大得多。

Our next question is from Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的加里·莫布里。

Looking at your largest customer, it looks like they purchased about $90 million of product from you in the third quarter of last year. That's probably down to something less than $10 million in this most recent quarter. So my question is, what's the right level for purchases with this customer, which I presume is representative of your broadband cable and WiFi business.

看看您最大的客戶，去年第三季他們似乎從您那裡購買了約 9000 萬美元的產品。在最近一個季度，這一數字可能會下降到不到 1000 萬美元。所以我的問題是，向該客戶購買的合適等級是多少，我認為這代表了您的寬頻線路和 WiFi 業務。

And does your current fourth quarter guidance and maybe your longer-term view, contemplate the transition of this business away from that customer into the hands of somebody else?

您目前的第四季指導以及您的長期觀點是否考慮將該業務從該客戶轉移到其他人手中？

So Gary, I mean, with regard to the -- some of the disclosures and the top customers, we've had a very large customer for a while. I think you've heard us talk about our top customers are often kind of more -- I'm going to refer to them more as kind of box vendors that kind of sit in between us and the operator. And I think you're well aware of most of these service providers are looking to kind of keep multiple silicon vendors in the mix so that they've got some leverage.

加里，我的意思是，關於一些披露的資訊和頂級客戶，我們已經擁有一個非常大的客戶一段時間了。我想你已經聽過我們談論我們的頂級客戶通常更多的是——我將他們更多地稱為介於我們和運營商之間的盒子供應商。我認為您很清楚大多數這些服務提供者都希望將多個晶片供應商納入其中，以便他們獲得一些影響力。

We don't see that changing much. And so we don't necessarily put too much weight on these customers, they ebb and flow from time to time. And even this year, we've actually seen some of our top customers switch as different service providers start to ramp. We've actually seen that through this year, and we've seen some nice improvements on some of these newer customers.

我們認為這種情況沒有太大變化。因此，我們不一定對這些客戶給予過多的重視，他們會不時地潮起潮落。即使今年，隨著不同的服務提供者開始增加，我們實際上已經看到一些頂級客戶發生了變化。事實上，今年我們已經看到了這一點，我們看到一些新客戶取得了一些不錯的改進。

Okay. Question for Kishore, as my follow-up. Kishore, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, some design win traction, I think, is how you phrased it for Keystone in the data center market. So I think you also mentioned a revenue ramp into the second half of the year. How much visibility do you have at this time in that revenue ramp? And how influential can some of these early days design wins be for MaxLinear?

好的。問基肖爾的問題，作為我的後續行動。 Kishore，您在準備好的演講中提到，我認為某些設計贏得了關注，這就是您在資料中心市場對 Keystone 的表述。所以我認為您也提到了下半年的收入成長。目前您對營收成長的可見度有多少？這些早期設計成果對 MaxLinear 有何影響？

So I think there are 2 parts to this question. I mean the visibility is very, very clear, right, in the sense that you work directly with the OEMs or module makers, where these transceivers are cable manufacturers, optical cable and you directly work with them. And you work with them because they're being aligned up to utilize our silicon at the endpoint, which is usually the data center folks. And so you have direct visibility now.

所以我認為這個問題有兩個部分。我的意思是，可見性非常非常清晰，從某種意義上說，您直接與 OEM 或模組製造商合作，這些收發器是電纜製造商、光纜，您直接與他們合作。您與他們合作是因為他們正在協調一致以在端點（通常是資料中心人員）利用我們的晶片。所以你現在可以直接看到。

The timing of when each one ramps and how the distribution and portioning of the revenue goes is the one that you have a little bit of what I call uncertainty of. However, the fact that we are in the mix, the fact that [certain calls] are going well. And the interactions, the commitment to take us through all the qualification process, the direct visibility you have.

每個人何時增加的時間以及收入的分配和分配方式是你有一點我所說的不確定性的。然而，事實上我們處於混合狀態，事實上[某些電話]進展順利。還有互動、帶領我們完成所有資格認證流程的承諾以及您擁有的直接可見性。

So having said that, like I said in my prepared remarks, the interops and [calls] are going on still, and we feel very good that our silicon is sound and strong and interops will go favorably. At this stage, that's our conviction, and that's our, what I call reading the tea leaves, if you will.

話雖如此，就像我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，互操作和[通話]仍在進行，我們感覺非常好，我們的晶片健全且強大，互操作將會順利進行。在這個階段，這就是我們的信念，如果你願意的話，這就是我們所說的「讀茶葉」。

Regarding how much influence they will have on our revenues, absolutely right. Even if you were to -- you don't do a top-down game plan, you always have to do a bottom-up game plan for revenues. And -- but if I were to map all of that, we hope to expect about 20% share sometime in the 3- to 5-year window of each of our customers. That's our base plan. And if you exceed that, you'll do much better.

關於他們對我們的收入有多大影響，絕對正確。即使你要這樣做，你也不會制定自上而下的遊戲計劃，你總是必須制定自下而上的收入遊戲計劃。而且，如果我將所有這些都繪製出來，我們希望每位客戶在 3 到 5 年的時間內能獲得約 20% 的份額。這就是我們的基本計劃。如果你超過這個限度，你會做得更好。

So how big can the business be in 5 years? Obviously, it can be somewhere between $100 million to a few hundred million dollars, right? That's a wild card here. So yes -- and that's the basis on which including wireless, optical, the accelerator business is where the confidence comes, that in a 5-year window or infrastructure business should be in the ballpark of the $500 million range, right? And that's the goal. And all of which, I would say, optical and storage activities of the greatest growth curve ahead of them.

那麼5年後業務能做多大呢？顯然，它可能在 1 億到幾億美元之間，對吧？這是一個未知因素。所以，是的，這就是包括無線、光纖在內的加速器業務的基礎，是信心的源泉，在 5 年的窗口內或基礎設施業務應該在 5 億美元的範圍內，對嗎？這就是目標。我想說，所有這些，光學和儲存活動的最大成長曲線都領先於它們。

Our next question is from Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的克里斯多福羅蘭。

I guess the first one is just kind of the swings that we've seen here from peak to now trough, going from $105 million in connectivity to $15 million, for example, have just kind of been incredible. So I guess, first of all, do you guys really view this as all inventory digestion? Like are we done in connectivity? I don't see how it can get too much kind of lower than this.

我想第一個是我們在這裡看到的從高峰到低谷的波動，例如，從 1.05 億美元的連接費用到 1500 萬美元，這有點令人難以置信。所以我想，首先，你們真的認為這都是庫存消化嗎？就像我們在連接方面已經完成了嗎？我不明白它怎麼能比這個低太多。

But do you have any idea of how much extra inventory is out there in the channel? And then moving forward, are you guys rethinking kind of systems to judge this inventory level that's out there? Are there new kind of processes that can be put in place to have a better view?

但您知道通路中還有多少額外庫存嗎？然後，你們是否正在重新考慮某種系統來判斷現有的庫存水準？是否可以採取新的流程來獲得更好的視角？

So if we were not analyzing the channel and the inventory, we shouldn't be in this job, right, in the first place. So obviously, we are analyzing these 2 debt. And sometimes it's very difficult because there is a steady level of guarded -- disposition from your customer to their customers. So the closer they are to you, the more information you get a little bit more accurate.

因此，如果我們不分析渠道和庫存，我們就不應該從事這項工作，對吧，首先。顯然，我們正在分析這兩筆債務。有時這是非常困難的，因為從你的客戶到他們的客戶都有一定程度的警覺性。因此，他們離您越近，您獲得的資訊就越多，也就越準確。

But I just want to hark back a little bit more. One of the most important things we need to start guessing are making educated guess is about when did the over build start? It started, let's assume the over shipments happened in the pandemic period over the last 2 to 3 years. And if you think that there was a, let's assume a 30% over shipment then you're looking at probably 3 quarters worth of at least actual and demand that is sufficiently provisioned? And how far are we into it? Maybe we are into a core profit. right?

但我只想再回顧一下。我們需要開始猜測的最重要的事情之一是做出有根據的猜測，過度構建何時開始？首先，我們假設超額出貨發生在過去兩到三年的疫情期間。如果您認為存在，讓我們假設出貨量超額 30%，那麼您所考慮的可能是至少 3 個季度的實際需求和已充分供應的需求？我們離這一步還有多遠？也許我們正在追求核心利潤。正確的？

If that is the logic you go run through as all logical people should, then you should start expecting a recovery somewhere in the second half of next year. Can you dial it in within a quarter? No. The second part of it is like, have the dynamics in the business change? No. I mean, always, we get excited about the greatest and the greatest new offer in technology, blah, blah, blah, and our customers talk about it and our customers' customers talk about it because I hate to say that's what the investors want to hear. Okay. But the real revenues are generated by all the products. Products that are actually long term, they're sticky because of software or performance or whatsoever.

如果這是你像所有有邏輯的人一樣遵循的邏輯，那麼你應該開始期待明年下半年的某個時候復甦。你能在四分之一時間內撥通嗎？不。第二部分是，業務動態是否改變？不，我的意思是，我們總是對技術領域最偉大、最偉大的新產品感到興奮，等等，等等，我們的客戶談論它，我們客戶的客戶談論它，因為我討厭說這就是投資者的看法想聽。好的。但真正的收入是由所有產品產生的。實際上是長期的產品，它們由於軟體或性能或其他原因而具有黏性。

And they're also cost down for the customer so they can ship more of it. In that sense, the dynamic isn't in the marketplace in terms of we have a robust Wi-Fi 6 portfolio. We have a robust Wi-Fi 7 offering. We have the SoCs to complement our broadband Wifi offering, right? I know that the broadband access, it's funny, when it does well, it's get discounted, when it goes down -- well, that's the problem. Sort of think -- no, honestly, if you step back, we're trying to build a broad-based portfolio company with potential to generate large profits and earnings per share for our shareholders. And at the same time, build scale and while investing in what I call more resilient businesses like our infrastructure and so on and so forth, so that we can build a comprehensively a large company. I mean, that's the ultimate goal. And no matter what happens now, we'd really be focused on the long-term goal, and that we're very committed to.

而且他們還為客戶降低了成本，這樣他們就可以運送更多的貨物。從這個意義上說，就我們擁有強大的 Wi-Fi 6 產品組合而言，市場上並不存在這種動態。我們擁有強大的 Wi-Fi 7 產品。我們有 SoC 來補充我們的寬頻 Wifi 產品，對嗎？我知道寬頻存取很有趣，當它表現良好時，它就會打折，當它下降時——嗯，這就是問題所在。想想看——不，老實說，如果你退後一步，我們正在努力建立一家基礎廣泛的投資組合公司，有潛力為我們的股東創造巨額利潤和每股收益。同時，擴大規模並投資於我所說的更具彈性的業務，例如我們的基礎設施等，以便我們能夠全面建立一家大公司。我的意思是，這就是最終目標。無論現在發生什麼，我們都會真正專注於長期目標，並且我們非常致力於實現這一目標。

And then secondly, about your infrastructure business. The upside there, you guys kind of highlighted millimeter wave and 5G backhaul. I would say, first of all, on the millimeter wave side, I think it's been very slow adoption. So it's interesting to see, you guys picking up why now? And then secondly, on the 5G side, we've seen builds really start to slow even in India now. What are the specific programs that you guys are linked to, that are kind of swimming upstream here?

其次，關於您的基礎設施業務。好的一面是，你們強調了毫米波和 5G 回程。我想說，首先，在毫米波方面，我認為它的採用速度非常緩慢。所以很有趣的是，你們現在知道為什麼？其次，在 5G 方面，我們看到即使在印度，建設也確實開始放緩。你們連結到的具體項目是什麼，有點像逆流而上？

Yes. Just real quick, maybe a clarification, Chris. I think you're aware, most of our business has been backhaul. So these backhaul transceivers that we've been shipping this year has been a big driver, right? So very different than the markets, the access -- 5G access markets that you're describing. And so these are microwave backhaul that's replacing fiber kind of in between base stations. So very -- again, I just want to emphasize a very different market than the decline that you're referencing, which we also see. We sell into the wireless access market. We are familiar with it, not surprising. There's definitely been weakness there. So -- but we've been able to gain traction in some of these other markets. They're a little [nicheier] markets. They're a little bit smaller, but they've been great growth drivers for MaxLinear.

是的。克里斯，請盡快澄清一下。我想您知道，我們的大部分業務都是回程。所以我們今年出貨的這些回程收發器是一個很大的推動力，對嗎？接入市場與您所描述的 5G 接入市場非常不同。因此，這些微波回程正在取代基地台之間的光纖。所以，再次強調，我只是想強調一個與您所提到的下降截然不同的市場，我們也看到了這一點。我們銷售無線接入市場。我們對此很熟悉，並不奇怪。那裡肯定有弱點。所以——但我們已經能夠在其他一些市場中獲得吸引力。它們是一些[小眾]市場。它們的規模稍小一些，但它們一直是 MaxLinear 的巨大成長動力。

There is -- there's a trend in the microwave, millimeter wave backhaul deployments as well, right? People are deploying more and more multi-band deployments and multi -- multi-band I mean, like millimeter wave band and microwave kind of combined radios or hybrid radios. So that increases the content as well.

微波、毫米波回程部署也有趨勢，對吧？人們正在部署越來越多的多頻段部署，我的意思是多頻段，例如毫米波頻段和微波類型的組合無線電或混合無線電。這樣也增加了內容。

Yes, India has been a driver as India was rolling out strongly in 5G. And now we see a slowdown. So we expected the slowdown, as I've guided accordingly. And you also have to keep in mind that, we did not have excess inventory in the infrastructure channel. We basically -- we're running short on supply, and we supply to the market.

是的，印度一直是推動 5G 發展的推動者。現在我們看到經濟放緩。因此，正如我所相應指導的那樣，我們預計會出現放緩。您還必須記住，我們在基礎設施管道中沒有多餘的庫存。基本上，我們供應短缺，我們向市場供應。

So the growth you're seeing, what you call our ability to pull a [salmon] go upstream is really based on the fact that the channel was not over stocked. So we are shipping to natural demand. Now with the slowdown, we will be caught up with the slowdown as well.

因此，您所看到的增長，即您所說的我們將[鮭魚]向上游拉動的能力，實際上是基於渠道庫存並沒有過剩的事實。因此，我們正在根據自然需求發貨。現在隨著經濟放緩，我們也將受到經濟放緩的影響。

So -- so really, the growth is coming in the backhaul to these multi-band hybrid deployments, which millimeters a part of. And you also want to think about the fact that as the access bandwidths increase, the fronthaul and backhaul data pipe is no longer going to be provisioned sufficiently by microwave and they have to use millimeter wave where it is cost effective to -- and combined with microwave and they're making trade-off versus fiber. So you can imagine countries like India and even in the U.S. in metropolitan zones and things like that. People are trying to do a lot of hybrid deployments.

所以，實際上，成長來自於這些多頻段混合部署的回程，其中毫米是其中的一部分。您還需要考慮這樣一個事實：隨著接入頻寬的增加，前傳和回傳數據管道將不再由微波提供足夠的資源，它們必須使用毫米波，因為毫米波具有成本效益，並且與他們正在與光纖進行權衡。所以你可以想像像印度這樣的國家，甚至在美國的大都會區和類似的地方。人們正在嘗試進行大量的混合部署。

Now does it slow down? Yes, absolutely. We have guided so accordingly, and it's going to be a little, what I call the telecom CapEx being dramatically slowed down as a lot of the telecom OEMs have talked about. In fact, some are preannounced, right? We should see some impact of it, but this is where our infrastructure is going to really be driven by our growth in our storage accelerators and our optical data center investments. So I think it's turning out to be a pretty nice portfolio, which I'm quite pleased actually, those have taken a while.

現在速度變慢了嗎？是的，一點沒錯。我們已經相應地進行了指導，正如許多電信原始設備製造商所談論的那樣，我所說的電信資本支出將大幅放緩。事實上，有些是預先宣布的，對嗎？我們應該看到它的一些影響，但這才是我們的基礎設施真正由我們的儲存加速器和光學資料中心投資的成長所驅動的地方。所以我認為這是一個相當不錯的投資組合，實際上我很高興，這些都花了一段時間。

Our next question is from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

Just wanted to ask a couple of questions. For the fourth quarter not going up sequentially, was that demand change, more inventory was out there than you expected? And I know those 2 things are interlinked. But what changed from 3 months ago to today, that leads the fourth quarter to be down sequentially?

只是想問幾個問題。對於第四季度沒有連續成長的情況，是否是需求發生了變化，庫存量超出了您的預期？我知道這兩件事是相互關聯的。但從三個月前到現在，到底發生了什麼變化，導致第四季環比下滑呢？

Yes. I mean, I think it's exactly as you stated. I think it's both, right? I mean there's definitely more inventory. We saw more pushouts. I mean, we saw bookings in the quarter, so we saw some improvements. But it wasn't as much as what we had originally expected 3 months ago.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這正如你所說的那樣。我認為兩者都是，對嗎？我的意思是庫存肯定更多。我們看到了更多的推出。我的意思是，我們在本季度看到了預訂，所以我們看到了一些改進。但這並沒有我們三個月前最初預期的那麼多。

And honestly, we ourselves are sort of baffled, if you will, as to how much inventory is out there and with the slowdown and how to reconcile that, right? So it's getting clear as the slowing economy sort of is all the catching up with us. I think there are 2 parallel economies out there right now, a tech economy and there's a chip economy and maybe there's a consumer economy. I don't know there are maybe there are 3 of them, and we are definitely in the chip economy. And we're seeing some of the downsides of that.

老實說，如果你願意的話，我們自己也有點困惑，不知道有多少庫存，隨著經濟放緩，以及如何協調這一點，對嗎？因此，隨著經濟放緩，一切都在追趕我們，這一點變得越來越明顯。我認為現在有兩個平行的經濟體，一個是科技經濟，一個是晶片經濟，也許還有一個消費經濟。我不知道有沒有，也許有3個，我們肯定處於晶片經濟之中。我們也看到了其中的一些缺點。

I guess -- second question, I have 2 quick follow-ups. The first one, for next year as a whole, I know you're not going to guide to total revenues. You talked a little bit about the linearity of it with the seasonal comment earlier. But from a high level, what do you think are the idiosyncratic tailwinds or headwinds that you guys as a company have as you look at '24?

我想——第二個問題，我有兩個快速跟進。第一個，對於明年全年，我知道你不會指導總收入。您之前透過季節性評論討論了它的線性關係。但從較高的層面來看，您認為 24 世紀你們作為一家公司所面臨的特殊順風或逆風是什麼？

I think it's pretty straightforward. I mean, I don't -- I'm not going to guide, of course, the next year, but I mean I think the shape of it is probably the opposite of this year, right? I mean we started the year out really strong, and we saw that kind deteriorate to some degree. We're working through this inventory, and I think you're likely to see us continue to improve.

我認為這非常簡單。我的意思是，我不會——當然，我不會指導明年，但我的意思是，我認為它的形式可能與今年相反，對吧？我的意思是，我們今年開局非常強勁，但我們看到這種情況在某種程度上惡化了。我們正在整理這份清單，我想您可能會看到我們不斷改進。

And -- and a lot of that is coming from just naturally inventory burning off, but it's also coming from new programs, new products that are going to ramp in that kind of the second half of next year. I mean, you've got a lot of new wins coming from optical. That starts to ramp next year. Wi-Fi 7 starts to ramp next year. So you've got several new programs that are going to ramp on top of the inventory just naturally burning off.

而且——其中很大一部分來自庫存的自然消耗，但也來自新計劃、新產品，這些計劃和新產品將在明年下半年推出。我的意思是，光學帶來了很多新的勝利。明年這種情況將開始增加。 Wi-Fi 7 將於明年開始普及。因此，您已經有了幾個新計劃，這些計劃將在庫存之上自然消失。

So both of those will help. I mean, I guess the only other thing that I just mentioned on another question was seasonality, I think you probably see a little bit of softness in seasonality, but I think it's more influenced at least in the short term by the inventory that sits in the channel.

所以這兩者都會有所幫助。我的意思是，我想我剛剛在另一個問題上提到的唯一一件事是季節性，我認為您可能會看到季節性有點疲軟，但我認為至少在短期內，它更多地受到庫存的影響這個頻道。

Got it. And my last one, and forgive me for speaking in 3. I know it's a confidential process in the arbitration with Silicon Motion. But any sort of update on either the timing, a reiteration of what you said before, but the timing of it or the potential magnitude, any sort of color on that is that tends to be the most frequent question I get. And again, I appreciate your somewhat, if not significantly limited in what you can say.

知道了。我的最後一個，請原諒我在 3 中發言。我知道這是與慧榮仲裁的保密過程。但是，任何關於時間安排的更新，重申你之前所說的話，但它的時間安排或潛在的規模，任何形式的顏色，這往往是我最常收到的問題。再說一次，我很欣賞你所說的話，如果不是很有限的話，也是有一定程度的限制。

Yes. I don't think anything has changed, just as we had updated before. I mean the only change is that Silicon Motion filed for arbitration, confidential process. So you're correct in that we can't add any more color there. Still expect that arbitration process to take 12 to 18 months.

是的。我認為沒有任何改變，就像我們之前更新過的那樣。我的意思是，唯一的變化是慧榮提出仲裁，保密程序。所以你是對的，我們不能在那裡添加更多顏色。預計仲裁過程仍需 12 至 18 個月。

Our next question is from David Williams with Benchmark Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的 David Williams。

Kishore, maybe you could talk a little bit more about the traction you're seeing in the Keystone platform? And what's the magnitude of that ramp do you think for next year. Is there any -- maybe just a little more color that you provide around that to help us understand the traction in growth?

Kishore，也許您可以多談談您在 Keystone 平台中看到的吸引力？您認為明年的成長幅度是多少？您是否可以提供更多的顏色來幫助我們了解成長的動力？

We don't guide to the future in that sort of short time lines. But I think from where we are today, we had a pilot builds right now as the interop cycles continue. And hopefully, next year, we have something in the teens or beyond that. And hopefully, beyond that because that would be disappointing if it's in the teens.

我們不會在那麼短的時間內引導未來。但我認為，從我們今天的情況來看，隨著互通週期的持續，我們現在已經進行了試點建構。希望明年我們能取得十幾歲或更高的成績。希望能超出這個範圍，因為如果是在十幾歲的孩子，那就會令人失望。

And then -- but I could talk to you in terms of 3 years -- in a 3-year window, could we cross $100 million? Yes. I mean that would be a natural expectation, right? So can we do better than that? Absolutely, that's based on share shifts. I think 1 wild card, the timing of the deployments of multiple data centers and they transition to 100-gigabit per lambda, whether it's 400 gig or 800 gig or 1.6 terabit on the 100-gig platform, if you will.

然後——但我可以用 3 年的時間來談談——在 3 年的時間內，我們的收入能否突破 1 億美元？是的。我的意思是這是一個自然的期望，對吧？那我們能做得更好嗎？當然，這是基於股份變動。我認為有一個通配符，即多個資料中心的部署時間，以及它們過渡到每 lambda 100 GB，無論是 400 GB、800 GB 還是 100 GB 平台上的 1.6 GB（如果您願意的話）。

And so you're counting on multiple players coming on. Right now, we have confirmed transitions from big -- 1 big data center guy, I know that in the [NVIDIA] AI clusters, they are deploying 100 gigabit. But you know what, it's like we have to land into it rather than win into it right now. So we are trying to win into it. And as they increase their supplier base, hopefully, we are one of the selected ones, but I'm not saying that we are selected or we are in it. So please don't mistake that. I'm just trying to say our focus is right now winning and some good luck on the share, basically, okay?

所以你指望有多名球員上場。現在，我們已經確認了大型資料中心人員的轉變，我知道在 [NVIDIA] AI 叢集中，他們正在部署 100 GB。但你知道嗎，我們現在必須陷入困境，而不是贏得勝利。所以我們正在努力贏得勝利。隨著他們增加供應商基礎，希望我們成為被選中的供應商之一，但我並不是說我們被選中或我們在其中。所以請不要誤會。我只是想說，我們現在的重點是獲勝，並且祝大家好運，基本上，好嗎？

Okay. Can you say is that progressing as you would have expected? Or is it maybe a little slower than you had hoped?

好的。您能說事情的進展符合您的預期嗎？或者它可能比你希望的要慢一點？

It always been slower to me, honestly, it's been a few several years since we've been investing in the optical data center. And every time, it seems slow for me because I'm dying with anticipation, right? So -- but so far, we feel very good about where we are. And like I said, if you read the tea leaves, that should actually be more positively disposed than my forecasting will indicate to you.

老實說，對我來說總是比較慢，自從我們投資光數據中心以來已經有好幾年了。每次，對我來說都顯得很慢，因為我都在期待中死去，對吧？所以，但到目前為止，我們對自己的處境感覺非常好。就像我說的，如果你讀了茶葉，那實際上應該比我的預測向你顯示的更積極。

I think, David, another positive, I mean, you're starting to see our IP that we've developed in optical, starting to broaden out. We can go after AEC opportunities, AOC opportunities. And that really to leverage the development that we've done thus far. Those are also types of programs that can ramp quicker versus some of the other transceiver platforms. Yes.

我認為，大衛，另一個積極的方面，我的意思是，你開始看到我們在光學領域開發的智慧財產權，開始擴展。我們可以追求 AEC 機會、AOC 機會。這確實是為了利用我們迄今為止所做的開發。與其他一些收發器平台相比，這些程式類型的提升速度更快。是的。

Great color. And then maybe lastly, just on the carrier or maybe the operator side. If you look out, are you hearing anything in terms of the beginning of the year of CapEx, planning? Or is there any sense of optimism that you're beginning to hear maybe for 2024 deployments and maybe CapEx spend?

顏色很棒。最後，也許只是在運營商或運營商方面。如果您留意的話，您是否聽到了有關年初資本支出和計劃的任何消息？還是您開始聽到對 2024 年部署和資本支出的樂觀情緒？

It's always the hardest thing in all these years in broadband. I can tell you very clearly that, they start their process sometime in Q3, and then (inaudible) know anything and Q1 -- by the time of the end of Q1, then sometimes they just go super aggressive as well. So -- but these are unique times because there's a lot of inventory sitting out there, even if they're going through that process, us feeling the impact of their OpEx decisions is going to be delayed for sure, right? Because you're going to be depleting even the inventory. So you won't feel the urgency they would come rushing towards end of Q4, or in the middle of Q1 in the past pre-pandemic period, right?

這始終是寬頻領域這些年來最難的事。我可以非常清楚地告訴你，他們在第三季度的某個時候開始他們的流程，然後（聽不清楚）知道任何事情和第一季——到第一季結束時，有時他們也會變得超級激進。所以，但現在是獨特的時期，因為有大量庫存存在，即使他們正在經歷這個過程，我們感覺他們的營運支出決策的影響肯定會被推遲，對嗎？因為你甚至會耗盡庫存。所以你不會感覺到他們在第四季末或在過去的大流行前的第一季中期衝過來的緊迫性，對嗎？

But now there's still enough inventory in the channel that it's going to be dampened. So we wouldn't be picking that signals much. But I think -- but I think we should all expect that everybody is going to be tightening their belts, right -- and so it will be subdued whatever they're going to be up to.

但現在渠道中仍然有足夠的庫存，它將受到抑制。所以我們不會過度選擇這個訊號。但我認為——但我認為我們都應該預料到每個人都會勒緊褲腰帶，對吧——所以無論他們要做什麼，它都會受到抑制。

Our next question is from Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的卡爾·阿克曼。

Kishore and Steve. Two questions if I may. I guess I first wanted to ask, there have been many questions on this call sort of asking whether -- there are structural impairments to some of the broadband and connectivity portions of your business. So I'd like to ask specifically about your connectivity business, how much of that business today is on a rough and tough basis, split between wireless and wired? I think that would be certainly helpful as we contemplate some of the content drivers that you talked about earlier on this call as it relates to Wi-Fi 7 next year, as well as some of the growth opportunities today for Wi-Fi 6.

基肖爾和史蒂夫.如果可以的話，有兩個問題。我想我首先想問的是，這次電話會議提出了很多問題，例如詢問您的業務的某些寬頻和連接部分是否存在結構性障礙。因此，我想具體詢問一下您的連接業務，目前該業務中有多少是在粗略和艱難的基礎上進行的，分為無線和有線？我認為這肯定會有幫助，因為我們會考慮您之前在本次電話會議中談到的一些與明年 Wi-Fi 7 相關的內容驅動因素，以及今天 Wi-Fi 6 的一些成長機會。

Okay. I would say we have little or no exposure to wireless access from a connectivity side. To the extent that we have exposure to the wireless access on the broadband connectivity side for our WiFi's offering. It's really in the telco platforms where they tend to be the gateway box, where, for example, they have a fiber PON chip with our gateway processor and a WiFi and they will be what I call an input to that box that comes from a 5G access (inaudible).

好的。我想說的是，我們很少或根本沒有接觸過連接方面的無線存取。就我們的 WiFi 產品而言，我們已經接觸到了寬頻連線的無線存取。實際上，在電信平台中，它們往往是網關盒，例如，它們有一個帶有我們的網關處理器和 WiFi 的光纖 PON 晶片，它們將是我所說的來自 5G 的盒子的輸入存取（聽不見清）。

So very little or no exposure to wireless broadband access, gateway access, okay? So if you take out that on the wireline, we have pretty much 100% of our exposure to wireline access. However, it may be the, let's say, 90% of it and 10% of it is what we call stand-alone router gateways that we are -- we started making progress at the beginning of the year to get revenues, that are outside of the operator gateways, right? That would be the landscape. So you should -- on a practical terms, you should associate 90% of our WiFi connectivity reviews with our wireline broadband access gateways okay?

所以很少或根本不接觸無線寬頻接入、網關接入，好嗎？因此，如果你透過有線方式獲取，我們幾乎 100% 都透過有線接入。然而，可以說，其中 90% 和 10% 可能是我們所謂的獨立路由器網關——我們在今年年初開始取得進展，以獲得外部收入。營運商網關，對吧？那將是風景。所以你應該——實際上，你應該將我們 90% 的 WiFi 連線評論與我們的有線寬頻接取網關連結起來，好嗎？

And maybe, Karl, just to add on a little bit. So don't forget on connectivity side, we also have about Ethernet. So while a lot of our declines in the gateway, I mean, it's been driven by both WiFi and Ethernet. One of the big things going on is we're seeing more exposure, Kishore shared some commentary around what's going on with this transition to 2.5 gig. We are seeing a lot more interest in that, and we do expect to see more growth in '24 and '25 from Ethernet. As well as, of course, the WiFi opportunities.

也許，卡爾，只是補充一點。因此，不要忘記在連接方面，我們還有乙太網路。因此，雖然我們的網關數量下降了很多，但我的意思是，這是由 WiFi 和乙太網路推動的。正在發生的一件大事是我們看到了更多的曝光，Kishore 分享了一些關於向 2.5 gig 過渡的評論。我們看到人們對此越來越感興趣，我們確實期望看到乙太網路在 '24 和 '25 中出現更多成長。當然，還有 WiFi 機會。

That's very helpful. I appreciate that color. For my follow-up question, I guess, are lead times in backlog back to normal, I guess, pre-COVID levels. Is that a fair -- fair way to think about it today? And then second, it's nice to see the decline in inventory. But any thoughts in terms of a target level of inventory, as you look to manage expenses over the next couple of quarters?

這非常有幫助。我很欣賞那種顏色。對於我的後續問題，我想積壓的交貨時間是否會恢復到正常水平，我想是新冠疫情之前的水平。今天這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？其次，很高興看到庫存下降。但是，當您希望管理未來幾季的支出時，您對庫存目標水準有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. It's a good question. So I think we've been doing a really good job on inventory, as far as bringing it down. but we got to do better. And we will continue to do better. We jumped on this pretty quick going all the way back to the tail end of last year.

是的。這是一個好問題。所以我認為我們在庫存方面做得非常好，就降低庫存而言。但我們必須做得更好。我們將繼續做得更好。我們很快就抓住了這個機會，一直追溯到去年年底。

But unfortunately, the revenue decline has just been such that we've not been able to get the inventory out as fast as we'd like to. With regard to lead times -- with regard to lead times, I would say we're kind of back to normal. I mean we're kind of quoting 16-, 18-week lead times, which is pretty typical in our business. I mean there's couple of businesses that are probably a little faster than that, but that's kind of our normal. So I wouldn't say that, that is problematic, whatsoever at this point.

但不幸的是，收入下降如此之大，以至於我們無法像我們希望的那樣盡快清除庫存。關於交貨時間——關於交貨時間，我想說我們已經恢復正常了。我的意思是，我們引用的交貨時間是 16 週、18 週，這在我們的業務中很常見。我的意思是，有一些企業的速度可能比這快一點，但這是我們的常態。所以我不會說這是有問題的，無論如何。

The backlog also -- backlog and bookings. So bookings, as I've talked about, I mean, have been very low because you had super good backlog for well over, I don't know, almost 2 years now. And so now I feel like we're getting through that adjustment phase, where you're going into a quarter with whatever, 50%, 60% backlog, whereas you -- historically, you've been running for the last 2 years, you've been running at 100% backlog, and that's changing. And that -- that getting back into that normal rhythm, that's what we're used to. That's what we know. And so actually, looking forward to kind of getting back. Some of the uncertainties has been around backlog pushing out of a quarter. That's really where the problem has been.

積壓還有——積壓和預訂。因此，正如我所說，預訂量非常低，因為你們的積壓量非常好，我不知道，已經快兩年了。所以現在我覺得我們正在經歷那個調整階段，你將進入一個季度，無論什麼，50％，60％的積壓，而你 - 從歷史上看，你已經運行了過去兩年，您一直以100% 積壓的狀態運行，而這種情況正在改變。回到正常的節奏，這就是我們所習慣的。這就是我們所知道的。事實上，我期待著回歸。一些不確定性來自季度積壓的情況。這確實是問題所在。

And so we're starting to see that improve.

所以我們開始看到這種情況有所改善。

But to be honest, Steve, if to the extent I can say we want 0 inventory in our books so that we get the PO bookings going on our customer side, I bet you I will support you on that.

但說實話，史蒂夫，如果我可以說我們希望書籍中的庫存為零，以便我們在客戶方面獲得採購訂單，我敢打賭我會在這方面支持你。

Our next question is from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Ananda Baruah。

Maybe just kind of dovetailing right off of that last topic with Karl, it seems like everything you guys just talked about would suggest that new normalized inventory levels at customers, exiting this would be the same, as they previously were going in. Do you think that that's based on what you can see a fair assumption?

也許只是與卡爾的最後一個話題相吻合，你們剛才談論的一切似乎都表明客戶的新的標準化庫存水平，退出將是相同的，就像他們之前進入的一樣。你認為這是基於你所看到的合理假設嗎？

I'm not sure that I followed you, Ananda. I'm sorry.

我不確定我是否跟隨了你，阿南達。對不起。

Well, your customers hold, I mean they probably view their inventory level -- to them, they have what they would interpret as normalized inventory levels, I would imagine. And that was -- that looked a particular way going into 2020, they can change what that looks like, Steve, but it sounds like -- I mean, they can change it higher, they could change it lower, they could be with the same coming out of this. But it sounds like based on what you're saying. Well, here's my thought. So does that make sense, though? What I'm saying like they probably say, we want to hold some number of weeks of MaxLinear inventory?

好吧，你的客戶持有，我的意思是他們可能會查看他們的庫存水平 - 我想對他們來說，他們擁有他們所理解的標準化庫存水平。進入2020 年，這看起來是一種特殊的方式，他們可以改變它的樣子，史蒂夫，但聽起來——我的意思是，他們可以把它改得更高，他們可以把它改得更低，他們可以與同樣的結果。但這聽起來像是基於你所說的。嗯，這是我的想法。那麼這有意義嗎？我所說的就像他們可能說的那樣，我們想要保留幾週的 MaxLinear 庫存？

Sure.

當然。

Yes, yes. So it sounds like it sounds like what you're saying is the lead times are back to pretty typical, and you're at 50%, 60% backlog, it sounds like ship out is meaningfully higher than ship in because you have typical lead times. So it sounds like they're operating you guys and typical lead time is working down the inventory, to the 50%, 60% backlog. So that would sort of suggest to me -- I guess, it really kind of crux of the question. It sounds to me like they're already working you guys as if getting you back to pre-COVID inventory levels. I was just wondering if you have an opinion on where that might settle in, that would also inform when you guys inflect.

是的是的。所以聽起來你所說的是交貨時間回到了相當典型的水平，而且你的積壓量為 50%、60%，聽起來發貨量明顯高於發貨量，因為你有典型的提前量次。所以聽起來他們正在操作你們，典型的交貨時間是減少庫存，減少 50%、60% 的積壓。所以這對我來說有點暗示——我想，這確實是問題的癥結所在。在我看來，他們已經在努力讓你們恢復到新冠疫情前的庫存水準了。我只是想知道你是否對這個問題有什麼看法，這也會告訴你們什麼時候會改變。

Yes. Look, if I understand your question correctly, I agree that the -- I mean I think the whole industry sees that lead times have come down. And so they're waiting. They're taking more risk. They actually kind of -- not sure if we're seeing eye-to-eye on this, but I think customers do have, still have -- if you look across the industry, there's still a lot of inventory either in the channel or even sitting at end customers. And so while that is still high, I mean, they are still burning that down. And -- but we're getting back to those normal times, as I stated. I mean I think it's another couple of 3 quarters, but we are seeing improvements.

是的。聽著，如果我正確理解你的問題，我同意——我的意思是我認為整個行業都看到交貨時間已經縮短。所以他們在等待。他們正在冒更大的風險。他們實際上有點 - 不確定我們是否對此看法一致，但我認為客戶確實有，仍然有 - 如果你縱觀整個行業，渠道或渠道中仍然有大量庫存甚至坐在終端客戶那裡。因此，雖然這個數字仍然很高，但我的意思是，他們仍在燒毀它。而且——但正如我所說，我們正在回到正常時期。我的意思是，我認為這又是三個季度，但我們看到了進步。

Yes. And I guess the question really was, do you think that they settle you in at lower levels than previously, when things get back to normal, do you think that...

是的。我想問題實際上是，你是否認為他們讓你的生活水平比以前更低，當事情恢復正常時，你是否認為...

I think -- yes, I mean, absolutely. That's what we see in every cycle. It swings the other way, right? They will take more risk. They will wait too long. That's exactly what's going on right now and in my opinion across the entire industry is that they are waiting because they -- either they know or they think they know that there's enough inventory out there. And so they're going to wait as long as they can and nobody's -- every one of these customers, their operations guys getting pounded on for having too much inventory. So they're going to not order and they're going to risk being late. And in this environment where demand is kind of so that's probably okay.

我認為——是的，我的意思是，絕對是如此。這就是我們在每個週期中看到的情況。它會向另一個方向擺動，對嗎？他們將承擔更多的風險。他們會等太久。這正是現在正在發生的事情，在我看來，整個行業都在等待，因為他們——要么他們知道，要么他們認為他們知道那裡有足夠的庫存。因此，他們會盡可能地等待，而沒有人會等待——每一位客戶、他們的營運人員都會因為庫存過多而受到打擊。所以他們不會點餐，而且會冒著遲到的風險。在這種需求旺盛的環境下，這可能沒問題。

And then just a quick follow-up. Kishore, you mentioned a couple of times about the storage accelerators and potentially picking up in '24 and then potentially to be robust for a few years. Do you -- in any context around how impactful those could be?

然後進行快速跟進。 Kishore，您多次提到儲存加速器，並可能在 24 年有所成長，然後可能會在幾年內保持強勁。在任何情況下，您認為這些影響力有多大嗎？

It's very impactful, right? I mean generally, by and large, whenever we invested in any new product areas, we hope to build at its peak run cycles somewhere in the $50 million to $100 million per year product, if it's an infrastructure product out, otherwise, the economics don't make sense.

這非常有影響力，對吧？我的意思是，總的來說，每當我們投資任何新產品領域時，我們都希望在其高峰運行週期中每年構建價值5000 萬至1 億美元的產品（如果它是基礎設施產品），否則，經濟上就不會如此。沒有道理。

And there's a rhythm to it, what is the next product going to be built, and that's sort of the thing that's sustaining revenue and growth, right? -- self-sustaining growth and revenue. So that is the expectation for this product that it's going to be somewhere in the $50 million to $100 million per year revenue when it hit its peak revenue.

這是有節奏的，下一個產品將被製造出來，這就是維持收入和成長的東西，對吧？ ——自我維持的成長和收入。因此，人們對該產品的預期是，當其達到收入高峰時，其年收入將達到 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。

So eventually, you have really rapid growth, like we said, double next year and maybe grow 50%, 60% the following year from there and maybe it hits the peak point in some time in the third and the fifth year from now. right, hopefully, a third year, not the fifth year, and then it holds there for a long time, and we launched new products.

所以最終，你會得到非常快速的成長，就像我們說的，明年翻倍，也許下一年成長 50%、60%，也許在第三年和第五年的某個時候達到高峰。是的，希望是第三年，而不是第五年，然後它會持續很長時間，我們推出了新產品。

And the more important thing, and this is where -- this is the key point here, and maybe we never ever connected the dots very well here is that, there is a place and need for these accelerators in the cloud market as well. And as the AI and the cloud and the edge increase accelerators will become essential to it. So right now, we're investigating partnerships with AI vendors, if you will, where there could be a joint offering, and we're seeing a lot of what I call openness for that joint collaboration of -- join this thing.

更重要的是，這就是關鍵點，也許我們從來沒有好好地將這些點連結起來，雲端市場中也有這些加速器的一席之地和需求。隨著人工智慧、雲端和邊緣的增加，加速器將變得至關重要。所以現在，我們正在調查與人工智慧供應商的合作夥伴關係，如果你願意的話，可能會聯合提供產品，我們看到了很多我所說的聯合合作的開放性——加入這個東西。

And that really is the key to the storage business is the enterprise is going to be a massive consumer of storage. And latencies and access speeds and all of those are going to be incredibly important at the [ads] and even inside the cloud, moving forward, even with the AI is going to get even worse. And really, this is a play that goes together with all the offerings on the AI processors as well. So that's the next step in the evolution of our storage accelerator business. And maybe this is the first time I really connected the dots in that sense for you.

這確實是儲存業務的關鍵，企業將成為儲存的大量消費者。延遲和訪問速度以及所有這些對於[廣告]甚至在雲端內部都將變得非常重要，向前發展，即使人工智慧也會變得更糟。事實上，這也是一款與人工智慧處理器上的所有產品結合的遊戲。這就是我們儲存加速器業務發展的下一步。也許這是我第一次真正為你把這些點連結起來。

Our next question is from Suji Desilva with ROTH MKM.

我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Suji Desilva。

Question about the carrier PON program. I'm curious if that is -- the rollouts happening as you had expected or whether that carrier is pushing out or delaying that rollout because of the macro environment?

關於運營商PON方案的問題。我很好奇，推出是否如您所預期的那樣進行，或者該運營商是否因為宏觀環境而推出或推遲推出？

The role is already happening. We've been shipping for this whole year actually. The only difference is that the earlier part of the year, the rollout was slower than we expected. So they were sitting on a bunch of inventory, and then they started shipping. Now they're shipping on a natural cadence. And we are already working on the next-generation platform, but my expectation is the next generation is going to be delayed and the existing generation platform with 10-gigabit PON XGS-PON and Wi-Fi 6 or 2, which is the enhanced throughput 1 is going to have a long life. Having said that, we've got the next-generation offering as well.

這個角色已經發生了。實際上我們這一整年都在出貨。唯一的區別是，今年早些時候，推出速度比我們預期的要慢。所以他們坐擁大量庫存，然後開始出貨。現在他們正在以自然的節奏發貨。我們已經在開發下一代平台，但我的預期是下一代平台將會被推遲，而現有的一代平台將採用 10 Gb PON XGS-PON 和 Wi-Fi 6 或 2，這是增強的吞吐量1將會有很長的壽命。話雖如此，我們也已經推出了下一代產品。

So I don't think there's any change in plans yet. There will be natural slowdowns and seasonalities and that sort of thing, but nothing out of the ordinary because to start with, there is not as much inventory on our side as was in the beginning of the year.

所以我認為計劃還沒有任何改變。將會出現自然放緩和季節性之類的情況，但沒有什麼異常，因為首先，我們這邊的庫存沒有年初那麼多。

Okay. That's helpful, Kishore. And then lastly, on the AEC market within optical, that's kind of coming online here. Can you help us just think about the relative size? Do you think that market will be a year or 2 out versus the AOCs and the passive cables. Just to understand how big you think that market grows as a share of the cabling?

好的。這很有幫助，基肖爾。最後，在光學領域的 AEC 市場上，這有點在線。你能幫我們想想相對大小嗎？您認為與 AOC 和被動電纜相比，這個市場會持續一兩年嗎？只是為了了解您認為市場在佈線中所佔份額的增長有多大？

That's a very, very interesting question. I know there's a lot of excitement in AEC, but AEC has been a very, very tiny market looking backwards -- right? The whole rationale for AEC comes in as the speeds have increased dramatically, where passive copper cannot meet the performance, and you need active electrical cables.

這是一個非常非常有趣的問題。我知道 AEC 令人興奮，但回顧過去，AEC 一直是一個非常非常小的市場，對嗎？ AEC 的全部原理是隨著速度的顯著提高而出現的，無源銅線無法滿足性能，而您需要有源電纜。

There's a place for AOCs as well. If I'm in an AI cluster, I don't want to do anything with AECs, right? I want to go optical. So it's really the mix and match. So this market can be huge, gigantic. And I think any forecast will underestimate the volume it can be over the long term. It's just like USB 3.0, right? It can just keep growing.

AOC 也有一席之地。如果我在 AI 集群中，我不想對 AEC 做任何事情，對嗎？我想去光學。所以這確實是混合搭配。所以這個市場可能是巨大的。我認為任何預測都會低估長期的銷售量。就像 USB 3.0 一樣，對吧？它可以繼續增長。

However, the prices are going to be a lot more optimistic than they really will play out to be, right? All in all, I expect the market, I don't know, anywhere between $200 million size for the chip guy to as big as $1 billion for transceivers, active optical cable and active electrical cable combined.

然而，價格將會比實際情況樂觀得多，對吧？總而言之，我不知道晶片市場的規模在 2 億美元之間，而收發器、有源光纜和有源電纜的市場總規模將達到 10 億美元。

But there is -- these cards in the last 20 years of existing is MaxLinear for me. I've never seen a single chip supply in the Communications segment more than $300 million of product. So the $1 billion TAM, $300 million TAM is my point. So put it differently, it's going to take many generations of products to really access the $1 billion TAM, and that's going to take a few years to get there. But I think we're very well positioned with our technology evolution.

但有一點——這些卡在過去 20 年裡存在，對我來說就是 MaxLinear。我從未見過通訊領域的單一晶片供應超過 3 億美元的產品。所以 10 億美元的 TAM、3 億美元的 TAM 是我的觀點。換句話說，需要很多代產品才能真正獲得 10 億美元的 TAM，而且需要幾年時間才能實現。但我認為我們在技術發展方面處於非常有利的位置。

Our final question is a follow-up from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題是 Tore Svanberg 與 Stifel 的後續問題。

Yes. I just had a 2-part question on the recent CommScope Vantiva deal. First of all, did that also have an impact on sort of purchasing behavior? Obviously, when you have an event like this, perhaps customers a bit more careful about buying inventory.

是的。我剛剛對最近的康普 Vantiva 交易提出了一個由兩部分組成的問題。首先，這是否也對某種購買行為產生影響？顯然，當發生這樣的活動時，也許客戶在購買庫存時會更加謹慎。

And then the second part of the question, does this change anything at all for MaxLinear? And the reason I'm asking that question is because now that it's sort of like 2 customers and 1 I would think that the qual for DOCSIS 4.0 is going to be a bit more simpler. So if you could answer those 2 questions, that would be great.

然後問題的第二部分，這對 MaxLinear 來說有什麼改變嗎？我問這個問題的原因是因為現在有點像 2 個客戶和 1 個客戶，我認為 DOCSIS 4.0 的資格會更簡單一些。因此，如果您能回答這兩個問題，那就太好了。

So Tore, your first part of the question is very, very easy. I don't think anybody knows which deal happens when, it's a very nonlinear process, M&A activity. Having said that, there's so much inventory in the channel. I don't think this -- the deal itself had any impact on that. It's really driven by the end market throughput and the end market itself has got a lot of inventory sitting on it, right? So I think our customers are in the same bad place we are in, number one.

Tore，你問題的第一部分非常非常簡單。我認為沒有人知道哪筆交易會發生，這是一個非常非線性的過程，併購活動。話雖如此，渠道裡的庫存還是很多的。我不認為這——交易本身對此有任何影響。它實際上是由終端市場吞吐量驅動的，而終端市場本身有大量庫存，對嗎？所以我認為我們的客戶和我們處於同樣糟糕的境地，第一。

Number two, regarding the DOCSIS 4.0 cycle, Yes, we've got a great chip, the lowest power, the most beautiful thing in the world. That's sort of a chip we have compared to any competition out there. However, we have seen the way the DOCSIS cable market plays out, it really takes 3 to 4 years to get to the ramp point where it hit 50% of the volume, at least 4 years to get to 50% of the market. And then a 7-year life to it, right?

第二，關於 DOCSIS 4.0 週期，是的，我們擁有一個很棒的晶片，功耗最低，是世界上最美麗的東西。這是我們與任何競爭對手進行比較的晶片。然而，我們已經看到了 DOCSIS 電纜市場的發展方式，確實需要 3 到 4 年才能達到銷量的 50%，至少需要 4 年才能達到 50% 的市場份額。然後就是7年的生活了，對嗎？

Having said that, DOCSIS 4.0 is not the same for everybody, there is (inaudible) in the marketplace. There are 2 flavors of it, and it's a very, very costly network rollout. And I think operators are going to be very, very selective about DOCSIS 4.0. It's going to be a very small share of the market.

話雖如此，DOCSIS 4.0 對於每個人來說並不相同，但市場上有（聽不清楚）。它有兩種風格，而且網路部署成本非常非常高。我認為營運商對於 DOCSIS 4.0 將會非常非常挑剔。它將只佔很小的市場份額。

However, DOCSIS 3.1 has got many flavors. There's something called the Ultra DOCSIS 3.1, which is going to meet all the category of services that the market needs with its 10 gigabit received bandwidth and upstream multi gigabit, it's going to meet all those things. It's called the higher split Ultra DOCSIS 3.1. And that can roll out today based on all the network out there. And I think that's what the operators are going to lean towards, and that's going to be 80% of the market. And so DOCSIS 4.0 is great, but 3.1 is even more beautiful, Ultra DOCSIS 3.1 is what I put my bet on.

然而，DOCSIS 3.1 有多種風格。有一種叫做 Ultra DOCSIS 3.1 的東西，它將透過其 10 GB 接收頻寬和上行多 GB 來滿足市場所需的所有服務類別，它將滿足所有這些要求。它被稱為更高分頻的 Ultra DOCSIS 3.1。今天就可以在所有網路的基礎上推出。我認為這就是營運商將傾向於的方向，這將佔據 80% 的市場。所以 DOCSIS 4.0 很棒，但 3.1 更漂亮，Ultra DOCSIS 3.1 是我的賭注。

I was just going to hand it back over to Dr. Kishore Seendripu for closing comments.

我正打算將其交還給 Kishore Seendripu 博士以徵求結束意見。

Well, thank you -- thank you, operator. So I just want to thank you all for attending this call. I would like to tell you that we'll be participating in a number of conferences in November through January. The Stifel Midwest Growth Conference in Chicago on November 9, the ROTH Capital Technology event in New York on November 15, the UBS Technology Conference in Scottsdale on November 28, the Wells Fargo TMT Summit in Rancho Palos Verdes, California November 29, and the Needham Growth Conference in New York on January 18. With that, I want to want to thank you all once again for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thank you.

好吧，謝謝你——謝謝你，接線生。所以我只想感謝大家參加這場電話會議。我想告訴您，我們將在 11 月到 1 月期間參加一些會議。 11 月9 日在芝加哥舉行的Stifel 中西部增長會議、11 月15 日在紐約舉行的羅仕資本技術活動、11 月28 日在斯科茨代爾舉行的瑞銀技術會議、11 月29 日在加州蘭喬帕洛斯維迪斯舉行的富國銀行TMT 峰會以及11 月29 日在加利福尼亞州蘭喬帕洛斯維迪斯舉行的Needham 峰會1 月18 日在紐約舉行的增長會議。在此，我想再次感謝大家加入我們，我們期待很快能再次與你們交談。謝謝。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。