Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jenny, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Murphy USA second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。我叫珍妮，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Murphy USA 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Christian Pikul. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話轉給克里斯蒂安·皮庫爾 (Christian Pikul)。請繼續。

Yes. Good morning, everybody. Thanks, Jennie, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. With me are Andrew Clyde, Chief Executive Officer; Mindy West, Chief Operating Officer; Galagher Jeff, Chief Financial Officer; and Donnie Smith, Chief Accounting Officer. After some opening comments from Andrew, Gallagher will provide an overview of the financial results and performance against our 2025 guidance metrics.

是的。大家早安。謝謝珍妮，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。與我一起的還有執行長 Andrew Clyde、營運長 Mindy West、財務長 Galagher Jeff 和首席會計長 Donnie Smith。在安德魯發表開場白之後，加拉格爾將概述財務結果以及對照我們 2025 年指導指標的表現。

And then following some closing comments from Andrew, we'll open up call to Q&A. Please keep in mind that some of the comments made during this call, including the Q&A portion, will be considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and -- as such, no assurances can be given that these events will occur or that the projections will be attained. A variety of factors exist that may cause actual results to differ. For further discussion of risk factors, please see the latest Murphy USA Forms 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K and other recent SEC filings.

然後，在安德魯發表一些結束語之後，我們將開始問答環節。請記住，本次電話會議中的一些評論（包括問答部分）將被視為《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述，因此，無法保證這些事件會發生或預測會實現。存在多種因素，可能導致實際結果有所不同。有關風險因素的進一步討論，請參閱最新的 Murphy USA 表格 10-K、10-Q、8-K 和其他最近的 SEC 文件。

Murphy USA takes no duty to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. During today's call, we may also provide certain performance measures that do not conform to generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP, and -- we have provided schedules to reconcile these non-GAAP measures with the reported results on a GAAP basis as part of our earnings press release, which can be found on the Investors section of our website.

Murphy USA 不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。在今天的電話會議中，我們還可能提供某些不符合公認會計原則或 GAAP 的績效指標，並且——我們已提供時間表，以將這些非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 基礎上報告的結果進行協調，作為我們收益新聞稿的一部分，您可以在我們網站的「投資者」部分找到。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

現在，我將把發言權交給安德魯。

Thank you, Christian, and good morning, everyone. Second quarter results largely reflect the trends previously disclosed in our operations update covering second quarter's performance through May. Fuel prices continue to be range bound despite remarkable geopolitical events, and we remain in a lower price, less volatile environment. Together with lighter cigarette promotional activity and lower lottery jackpots -- this translated to modest pressure on customer traffic, and you can see that in Q2, same-store fuel volumes were down 3.2%, ahead of OPUS volume levels reported that noted weakness in demand.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安，大家早安。第二季的業績在很大程度上反映了我們先前在截至 5 月的第二季業績營運更新中所揭露的趨勢。儘管發生了重大的地緣政治事件，燃料價格仍持續在區間波動，我們仍然處於較低價格、波動較小的環境中。再加上香菸促銷活動減少和彩票頭獎金額降低，這些都對客流量產生了適度的壓力，您可以看到，第二季度同店燃油銷量下降了 3.2%，低於 OPUS 報告的需求疲軟水平。

July volumes have rebounded and are currently running at 100% of prior year levels with a couple of reporting days left in the month. While these trends reflect an environment on the low side of what we would call normal, there are definitely bright spots that may get obscured in the current environment, which should result in significant performance uplift when conditions normalize. Galagher will review the 2025 outlook shortly, but it's worth emphasizing a few things that we are excited about.

七月份的交易量已經反彈，目前已達到去年同期水準的 100%，而本月還剩下幾天的報告期。雖然這些趨勢反映出環境處於我們所謂的正常水平的低端，但當前環境中肯定會有一些亮點被掩蓋，當條件恢復正常時，這應該會導致性能的顯著提升。加拉格爾很快就會回顧 2025 年的展望，但值得強調的是，有幾件事讓我們感到興奮。

First, while cigarette volumes remain pressured, non-combustible nicotine categories are growing at a rate that fully offsets the decline in cigarette margins, which is remarkable as this category represents only 30% of total nicotine margin contribution. With an uptick in July promotional activity on cigarettes around the fourth of July, we believe a more robust second half cadence will be supportive to stronger nicotine category growth.

首先，雖然捲菸銷售仍然面臨壓力，但非燃燒性尼古丁類別的成長速度完全抵消了捲菸利潤的下降，這一點非常了不起，因為這個類別僅佔尼古丁總利潤貢獻的 30%。隨著 7 月 4 日左右香菸促銷活動的增加，我們相信下半年更強勁的節奏將支持尼古丁類別的更強勁增長。

Moreover, we view FDA Commissioner Dr. Mark has forceful comments about illicit vapor and synthetic Cragun crackdowns earlier this week is very positive. Second, unlike many of the public QSRs reporting sales declines, average per store month food and beverage sales at Quick Check have been positive for the third straight quarter, underscoring our value offer and ability to drive traffic to our stores.

此外，我們認為 FDA 局長馬克博士本週早些時候對非法蒸汽和合成 Cragun 打擊行動的有力評論是非常積極的。其次，與許多報告銷售額下降的公共 QSR 不同，Quick Check 的每家商店每月平均食品和飲料銷售額連續第三個季度保持正增長，這凸顯了我們的價值主張和吸引客流的能力。

Investing in traffic and transactions versus taking excessive price increases in the current environment will pay dividends later when food costs subside, resulting in both sales and margin growth going forward. Third, supporting sales and contribution on both brands are the digital initiatives that are creating value for their customers.

在當前環境下，投資流量和交易而不是過度提價，將在食品成本下降後帶來回報，從而帶來未來的銷售額和利潤率的成長。第三，支持兩個品牌的銷售和貢獻的是為客戶創造價值的數位化舉措。

For MDR, we saw a 31% increase in new loyalty enrollments for the quarter and an 11% increase in merchandise transactions. In fact, if you remove cigarettes and lottery from the mix, Murphy only merchandise contribution increased by 8.9% for the quarter, led by strength in candy and packaged beverages. Both categories where we are seeing price increases across the industry yet our ability to deliver value to the customer and CPG firms is yielding positive results.

對於 MDR，我們發現本季新會員註冊量增加了 31%，商品交易量增加了 11%。事實上，如果將香菸和彩票從商品組合中剔除，墨菲本季唯一的商品貢獻增加了 8.9%，其中糖果和包裝飲料的強勁表現尤為突出。我們看到整個產業中這兩個類別的價格都在上漲，但我們為客戶和 CPG 公司提供價值的能力卻正在產生積極的成果。

At Quick Check, the revamped loyalty program has seen mobile orders double since the relaunch and 35% of in-store pickup items included additional sales inside the store, averaging $7 per transaction. We've also seen a meaningful shift in the full-time to part-time labor mix at QC as part of our demand forecasting digital initiative.

在 Quick Check，改進後的忠誠度計劃自重新推出以來，行動訂單量翻了一番，35% 的店內取貨商品在店內產生了額外銷售，平均每筆交易 7 美元。作為需求預測數位化計劃的一部分，我們還看到 QC 的全職到兼職勞動力結構發生了顯著變化。

Fourth, a common theme across today's call will be that when merchandise contribution is pressured which it inevitably will be from time to time, we are able to maintain store profitability from operating cost improvements, a hallmark of our corporate DNA since our 2013 spend. The current quarter is no exception, where we saw improvements in overtime labor rates, loss prevention and maintenance. These improvements are complemented by home office efficiencies that are driving our G&A lower.

第四，今天電話會議的一個共同主題是，當商品貢獻面臨壓力時（這種情況不可避免地會時有發生），我們能夠透過改善營運成本來維持商店獲利能力，這是我們自 2013 年支出以來的企業 DNA 的標誌。本季也不例外，我們看到加班率、損失預防和維護都有所改善。這些改進與家庭辦公室效率的提高相輔相成，從而降低了我們的一般及行政費用 (G&A)。

Fifth, in a relatively more challenging environment where we can sustain store profitability, retail fuel margins are proving even more resilient than we would have thought. We saw retail margins up 50 basis points in 2024 and year-to-date, we are seeing an 80 basis point improvement, along with an additional 13 basis points from lower credit card fees. This reinforces our view that industry headwinds are translating to higher retail margins over time because the marginal retailer is unable to sustain their profitability without taking up price on fuel.

第五，在相對更具挑戰性的環境中，我們可以維持商店的獲利能力，零售燃料利潤率比我們想像的更有彈性。我們看到零售利潤率在 2024 年上升了 50 個基點，而今年迄今為止，零售利潤率已上升了 80 個基點，此外信用卡費用降低還額外提高了 13 個基點。這強化了我們的觀點，即產業逆風將隨著時間的推移轉化為更高的零售利潤率，因為邊際零售商無法在不提高燃料價格的情況下維持獲利能力。

Furthermore, our street pricing on average in Q2 was $0.01 more aggressive, supporting weaker demand which further reinforces our view that in a more normal price and volatility environment, we would likely see further bottom line margin improvement. And last but certainly not least, we are really excited and encouraged by the quality of our new store pipeline and construction underway, which is poised to deliver 50 stores over the next 12 months. While we have not met our commitments and expectations on the timing of store months individual store performance for all the most recent build classes are performing well above pro forma.

此外，我們第二季度的平均市場定價高出 0.01 美元，支持了較弱的需求，這進一步強化了我們的觀點，即在更正常的價格和波動環境中，我們可能會看到進一步的底線利潤率改善。最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們對新店籌備和正在進行的建設的品質感到非常興奮和鼓舞，我們準備在未來 12 個月內交付 50 家門市。雖然我們尚未履行對門市月份時間的承諾和期望，但所有最近建造的類別的個別門市的表現都遠高於預期。

Galagher will provide some more details around that program. So let me turn it over to him to provide some updates on our 2025 guidance before returning to discuss our longer-term potential.

加拉格爾將提供有關該計劃的更多細節。因此，在回來討論我們的長期潛力之前，請允許我先讓他提供一些有關我們 2025 年指導的最新資訊。

Thanks for the handoff, Andrew. Building on your comments. I'm going to discuss our progress against our 2025 guided metrics. Starting with fuel volumes. First half volumes were down 3% on an average per store month basis, which after adjusting for temporal issues we referenced in the first quarter call, translates to down 2% on a normalized basis.

謝謝你的交接，安德魯。根據您的評論。我將討論我們根據 2025 年指導指標所取得的進展。從燃料量開始。上半年每家店月平均銷售量下降了 3%，在根據我們在第一季電話會議上提到的時間問題進行調整後，按正常化計算，下降了 2%。

Given first half performance is tracking slightly lower than our expectations, our second half outlook incorporates a market neutral view at by continued low volatility and does not account for anything exceptional that may occur, such as supply shock followed by dramatically falling prices. As such, our outlook for the second half suggests volumes could fall slightly below the low end of our annual guided range of 240,000 to 245,000 average per store month. As Andrew mentioned, Gila fuel volumes are running at 100% of prior year. For merchandising contribution margin, we're seeing a similar impact from a slow first quarter.

鑑於上半年的表現略低於我們的預期，我們對下半年的展望採用了市場中性觀點，認為波動性將持續較低，並且不會考慮可能發生的任何異常情況，例如供應衝擊導致價格大幅下跌。因此，我們對下半年的展望表明，銷量可能會略低於我們年度指導範圍的低端，即每家門市每月平均 240,000 至 245,000 輛。正如安德魯所提到的，吉拉的燃料產量達到了去年同期的 100%。對於商品銷售貢獻利潤率，我們看到第一季的緩慢成長也產生了類似的影響。

With headwinds from two of our largest categories in the first half, cigarettes and lottery, we also expect to be within but toward the low end of our guided range of $855 million to $875 million. It's important to remember on an average per store month basis, Q2 merchandising contribution at Murphy USA branded stores are up 8.9%, excluding the headwinds from cigarettes and lottery.

由於上半年我們最大的兩個類別——香菸和彩票——面臨阻力，我們預計銷售額將處於指導範圍 8.55 億美元至 8.75 億美元的低端。重要的是要記住，以平均每家商店每月計算，Murphy USA 品牌商店第二季的商品銷售貢獻增加了 8.9%，不包括香菸和彩票的不利影響。

This speaks to the underlying resilience we see in the Murphy customers and broader center store categories. In this demand environment, we are actively managing our costs and driving savings across both store operating expenses and home office costs. Our initiatives to improve store-level operations are showing results. and we expect store operating expenses to be at or below the low end of the guided range of $365,000 to $37,000 per store month. Therefore, from a store profitability perspective, due to sustainable and structural improvements we are making to the business.

這說明我們在墨菲客戶和更廣泛的中心商店類別中看到了潛在的韌性。在這種需求環境下，我們積極管理成本，並節省商店營運費用和家庭辦公室成本。我們改善門市營運的措施正在取得成效。我們預計門市營運費用將處於或低於指導範圍的低端，即每家門市每月 365,000 美元至 37,000 美元。因此，從商店獲利能力的角度來看，我們正在對業務進行可持續和結構性的改進。

On a net profit basis, we are seeing higher operating contribution dollars per store, not lower. This stronger coverage ratio reinforces the competitiveness of our Murphy business model and increase our ability to generate free cash flow. In addition to our operating expenses, we've also made progress optimizing our home office spend, which has resulted in total corporate SG&A also trending below the low end of our guided range of $245 million to $255 million. The effective tax rate in the first half was 22% due to a combination of excess tax benefits related to equity compensation, and recognize benefits from federal energy tax credits reflected in first quarter results.

從淨利來看，我們看到每家商店的營業貢獻金額在增加，而不是減少。更高的覆蓋率增強了我們的墨菲商業模式的競爭力，並提高了我們產生自由現金流的能力。除了營運費用外，我們還在優化總部支出方面取得了進展，這使得公司銷售、一般及行政開支總額也低於我們指導範圍 2.45 億美元至 2.55 億美元的低端。上半年有效稅率為 22%，這歸因於與股權薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠，以及第一季業績反映的聯邦能源稅收抵免帶來的收益。

We expect second half all-in tax rates to be within the guided range of 24% to 26%. And resulting in a full year tax rate at or slightly below the low end of guidance. I'll close the 2025 guidance update with two related topics: new store growth and our capital expenditures. We put 14 new stores into service in the first half, along with 10 raise and rebuild stores, followed by six more raze-and-rebuilds opened in July. I'm pleased to report that new store construction activity will remain robust through the end of this year with the pipeline in extremely solid shape to deliver accelerated store growth this year and beyond.

我們預計下半年全包稅率將在 24% 至 26% 的指導範圍內。從而導致全年稅率達到或略低於指導值的低端。我將以兩個相關主題結束 2025 年指導更新：新店成長和我們的資本支出。我們在上半年開設了 14 家新店，同時還有 10 家重建店，然後在 7 月開設了 6 家重建店。我很高興地報告，新店建設活動將在今年年底前保持強勁，並且通路狀況非常穩固，可以加速今年及以後的門市成長。

40 new stores and eight raise and rebuilds are currently under construction, and we're positioned to start construction on an additional 10 new stores. over the next 45 days. Given any unanticipated supply chain shocks or jurisdictional delays, that means we expect to open around 40 new stores in 2025, up from the 32 stores opened in 2024.

目前有 40 家新店和 8 家重建店正在建設中，我們計劃在未來 45 天內再開工建造另外 10 家新店。考慮到任何意外的供應鏈衝擊或司法管轄延遲，這意味著我們預計 2025 年將開設約 40 家新店，高於 2024 年開設的 32 家店。

More importantly, we have over 45 NTIs in construction in Q3, resulting in a robust end of year delivery and a great start to 2026, where we do expect 15 to 20 additional new store openings in the first quarter of 2026. Accordingly, our 2025 capital plan remains largely intact, and we expect to remain within the guided range of $450 million to $500 million.

更重要的是，我們在第三季有超過 45 個 NTI 正在建設中，這將帶來強勁的年底交付和 2026 年的良好開端，我們預計 2026 年第一季將新增 15 至 20 家門市。因此，我們的 2025 年資本計畫基本上保持不變，我們預計將保持在 4.5 億美元至 5 億美元的指導範圍內。

Looking past 2025, our new store pipeline continues to grow and accelerate with 90 stores already in design or permitting and over 50 more in contract negotiations. We believe these new numbers and momentum reflect our newly refined store development capabilities and will allow us to increase our NTI delivery capacity in 2026 and beyond.

展望 2025 年，我們的新店建設將繼續成長並加速，目前已有 90 家門市處於設計或授權階段，另有 50 多家門市處於合約談判階段。我們相信，這些新的數字和勢頭反映了我們新近完善的門市開發能力，並將使我們能夠在 2026 年及以後提高我們的 NTI 交付能力。

I will close with a brief comment on share repurchase. In the second quarter, as noted in our release, we repurchased 471,000 shares, bringing our year-to-date repurchases to nearly 900,000 shares. Share repurchase remains the highest and best use of our free cash flow, and we expect to remain active repurchase of our shares going forward. We will continue to take advantage of the currently misaligned views between investors and management with respect to our ability to drive future value creation for Murphy USA shareholders.

最後，我將對股票回購做簡短的評論。正如我們在新聞稿中指出的，第二季我們回購了 471,000 股，使我們年初至今的回購量達到近 90 萬股。股票回購仍然是我們自由現金流的最高和最佳用途，我們預計未來將繼續積極回購股票。我們將繼續利用投資者和管理層之間目前不一致的觀點，為墨菲美國股東創造未來的價值。

And now I'll turn it back over to Andrew for closing comments.

現在我將把時間交還給安德魯，請他發表最後評論。

Thanks, Galagher. That's a great perspective on our '25 outlook. Referencing our longer-term value creation algorithm and in particular, slide 10 of our most recent investor deck, we remain bullish on our ability to create value for long-term investors. We remain well positioned to continue to sustain and improve our near-zero fuel breakeven margin with a focus on overall store profitability, addressing merchandise headwinds with operational and overhead efficiencies and growing categories with our vendor partners with the right mix of pricing, promotion and digital activities.

謝謝，加拉格爾。這是對我們 25 年展望的絕佳看法。參考我們的長期價值創造演算法，特別是我們最新的投資者簡報的第 10 張投影片，我們仍然看好我們為長期投資者創造價值的能力。我們仍處於有利地位，可以繼續維持和提高接近零的燃油盈虧平衡利潤率，重點關注整體門市盈利能力，透過提高營運和管理效率來應對商品逆風，並透過合理的定價、促銷和數位活動組合與我們的供應商合作夥伴一起擴大產品類別。

With advantaged non-fuel profitability per store, we expect to grow EBITDA on a CPG basis as we keep more of the increases we are experiencing in retail fuel margins. And as we bring on more new stores that enhance returns and higher volumes per store, growth in total volume provides the free cash flow to deliver our 50-50 capital allocation strategy that has proven to be a winning formula with shareholders. And we also believe EPS will be further enhanced through our tax optimizing strategies.

憑藉每家店在非燃料業務方面的優勢獲利能力，我們預計，隨著零售燃料利潤率持續保持成長，我們預計 CPG 基礎上的 EBITDA 也將成長。隨著我們開設更多新店，提高每家店的回報率和銷量，總銷量的增長提供了自由現金流，從而實現了我們 50-50 的資本配置策略，事實證明，這是贏得股東青睞的製勝法寶。我們也相信，透過我們的稅收優化策略，每股收益將進一步提高。

When I think about some of the conversations with investors over the past few months, these discussions remain rooted in the long-term potential of our business, particularly in connection with the $1.3 billion EBITDA potential we set for 2028 and which we have included in our investor presentations beginning in 2023.

當我回想起過去幾個月與投資者的一些對話時，這些討論仍然植根於我們業務的長期潛力，特別是與我們為 2028 年設定的 13 億美元 EBITDA 潛力有關，並且我們已將其納入 2023 年開始的投資者演示中。

This figure was a single point target that represented in our view, the potential of our business based on a set of factors in a normal environment, some of which are within our control and some are outside of our control. Since then, our progress against some of these metrics have been slower than anticipated, as we have shared with you during prior earnings calls and investor conferences, while some other metrics have been realized ahead of our expectations.

這個數字是一個單點目標，在我們看來，它代表了我們業務在正常環境下基於一系列因素的潛力，其中一些因素在我們的控制範圍內，而另一些因素則在我們的控制範圍之外。自那時起，我們在其中一些指標方面的進展比預期要慢，正如我們在先前的財報電話會議和投資者會議上與您分享的那樣，而其他一些指標的實現已經超出了我們的預期。

So let's take stock and review our progress against this target. It was predicated on four distinct drivers. First, NTI growth approximating 50 new stores annually starting in 2024. Two, continued upward pressure on equilibrium retail margins approximating 30 to 40 basis points annually. Three, sustaining the higher rate of merchandise contribution growth we experienced in 2022 and 2023, which was about 7% annually. And last, number four, continued operational improvements to make our business more competitive which is the legacy of our history as a public company.

因此，讓我們評估並回顧我們實現這一目標的進展。它基於四個不同的驅動因素。首先，從 2024 年開始，NTI 每年將新增約 50 家門市。二、均衡零售利潤率持續面臨上行​​壓力，每年約上升30至40個基點。三、維持我們在 2022 年和 2023 年經歷的較高商品貢獻成長率，即每年約 7%。最後，第四，持續改善運營，使我們的業務更具競爭力，這是我們作為上市公司的歷史遺產。

Together, in a normal environment, these resulted in a five-year view of a little over $1.25 billion in EBITDA, such that another $0.01 of fuel margin would yield $1.3 billion of potential EBITDA we referenced. Starting with non-fuel performance on existing stores, we are about $20 million behind our expectations for 2028.

總體而言，在正常環境下，這些因素導致五年後的 EBITDA 略高於 12.5 億美元，因此，另外 0.01 美元的燃料利潤將產生我們所提到的 13 億美元的潛在 EBITDA。從現有商店的非燃料業績開始，我們對 2028 年的預期比現在落後了約 2,000 萬美元。

The largest driver is a quick check, where older non-fuel stores have been impacted the most from the QSR value wars, while food and beverage margins have been hampered by cost inflation and overall weakness in the Northeast traffic has been persistent impacting center store performance. As we look beyond 2028, these older non-fuel stores are coming off lease, and we expect food margins to stabilize as we continue to drive traffic on our high-volume fuel stores.

最大的驅動因素是快速檢查，其中較舊的非燃料商店受到 QSR 價值戰的影響最大，而食品和飲料利潤率受到成本通膨的阻礙，東北地區交通的整體疲軟持續影響中心商店的表現。展望 2028 年以後，這些較舊的非燃料商店的租約即將到期，我們預計，隨著我們繼續推動高容量燃料商店的客流量，食品利潤率將趨於穩定。

Murphy branded merchandise contribution was also lower, reflecting the compounding of delays in some of the center store initiatives last year and cigarette weakness this year. Offsetting a lower base for compounding on the top line and contribution margin growth as better-than-expected operating costs and SG&A costs, both in terms of what we have realized to date and what we were highly confident ongoing initiatives will deliver, which will also then deliver compounded benefits from a lower base.

墨菲品牌商品的貢獻也有所下降，這反映了去年部分中心商店計劃的延遲以及今年香菸市場的疲軟。透過好於預期的營運成本和銷售、一般及行政費用來抵銷較低的基數，從而實現營業收入和貢獻利潤率的複合增長，無論是就我們迄今為止實現的目標而言，還是就我們高度有信心的正在進行的舉措將實現的目標而言，這也將從較低的基數中帶來複合效益。

Moving to new stores. We are also about $20 million behind our expectations for 2028 due to fewer store months. While the fewer store months creates a drag on fuel volume and merchandise sales, it is offset by lower operating cost and rent but more importantly is the offset from new stores that are performing better than our plan. Turning to fuel at existing stores. The shortfall we have seen in same-store volumes is offset by higher fuel margins and lower payment fees in our forecast.

搬遷至新店。由於店舖營業時間減少，我們對 2028 年的預期也比現在少了約 2,000 萬美元。雖然門市營業時間減少會對燃料銷售和商品銷售造成拖累，但較低的營運成本和租金可以抵消這一影響，但更重要的是，新店的業績好於我們的計劃，可以抵消這一影響。轉向現有商店的燃料。我們預測，同店銷售量的下降將被更高的燃油利潤率和更低的支付費用所抵消。

We expected and continue to expect PS&W's net of RINs to normalize between $0.025 and $0.03 per gallon with a more balanced supply-demand outlook. Based on current market and competitive dynamics, we would expect retail margins to improve about $0.005 per gallon per year slightly above what we had in our original plan. These updated assumptions generate EBITDA potential of around $1.2 billion in 2028.

我們預計，並將繼續預計 PS&W 的 RIN 淨價將正常化在每加侖 0.025 美元至 0.03 美元之間，供需前景將更加平衡。根據目前的市場和競爭動態，我們預計零售利潤率將提高約每加侖每年 0.005 美元，略高於我們原計劃的水平。這些更新後的假設將在 2028 年產生約 12 億美元的 EBITDA 潛力。

We also expected and continue to expect to see more normalized fuel prices and volatility levels such that we can claw back an extra $0.01 per gallon, where we have been more aggressive to sustain volume in a much lower price environment over the last several quarters. That penny would get you back to the original $1.25 billion plan for 2028.

我們也預計並將繼續預期燃料價格和波動水準將更加正常化，這樣我們就可以收回每加侖額外的 0.01 美元，而在過去幾個季度中，我們一直更積極地在更低的價格環境中維持銷量。這一分錢將使你回到 2028 年最初的 12.5 億美元計畫。

And if the environment yielded an additional $0.01 above and beyond that, we would realize close to the original $1.3 billion figure. No matter what 2028 EBITDA ultimately turns out to be in a normalized environment where merchandise contribution offsets OpEx growth and volume pressures are abated at higher fuel prices we expect incremental benefits on retail margins in addition to the $40 million to $50 million of EBITDA contribution expected from each new build class at maturity.

如果環境收益在此基礎上再增加 0.01 美元，我們就能實現接近最初的 13 億美元的數字。無論 2028 年 EBITDA 最終結果如何，在商品貢獻抵消營運支出成長且燃油價格上漲減輕銷售壓力的正常化環境下，我們預計零售利潤率將獲得增量收益，此外，預計每個新建類別在到期時將帶來 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元的 EBITDA 貢獻。

The trajectory of the business will look far different in 2028 versus what we see today as we ramp up our NTI program. Outside of fuel margin expectations, we have shown we can manage the puts and takes of our business and honestly believe there's more upside than downside on the merchandise assumptions given the reset baseline.

隨著我們加強 NTI 計劃，2028 年的業務軌跡將與我們今天所看到的截然不同。除了燃料利潤率預期之外，我們已經證明我們可以管理業務的收益和利弊，並且真誠地相信，在重置基線的情況下，商品假設的上行空間大於下行空間。

Range of outcomes is and always will be primarily a function of the level of fuel margins realized. Our investment thesis as the largest single buyer of our shares every year is that prices, margins and the underlying drivers lead to a bumpy path towards a higher normalized level. and with highly disciplined 50-50 capital allocation strategy, coupled with a conservative balance sheet, we are well positioned to continue our track record of TSR growth.

結果範圍始終主要取決於實現的燃料利潤水準。作為我們股票每年最大的單一買家，我們的投資論點是，價格、利潤率和潛在驅動因素將導致公司走向更高正常化水準的道路充滿坎坷。憑藉高度自律的 50-50 資本配置策略，加上保守的資產負債表，我們完全有能力繼續保持 TSR 成長的良好記錄。

So with that, we will open up the call to questions.

因此，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Anthony Bonadio, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）安東尼·博納迪奧，富國銀行。

I just wanted to ask about gallons for starters. Can you just talk about why trends seemingly worsened throughout the quarter and how your market share trended over that period? And then if it's an industry issue, I guess why we didn't see more retail margin growth to offset that given those poor volumes would translate to higher breakeven.

首先，我只是想問加侖的問題。您能否談談為什麼整個季度的趨勢似乎惡化以及您的市場份額在此期間的趨勢如何？如果這是一個行業問題，我想為什麼我們沒有看到更多的零售利潤成長來抵消這個問題，因為這些糟糕的銷售會轉化為更高的損益兩平。

Yes. So the first thing, the trend in the quarter is partly masked by the April-May update, which had a different same-store base that we had been for the full quarter. And so where June trended around 4% down, leading to the quarter where it ended up. So there was some deceleration, but not as significant as it showed based on the April, May numbers with that different base.

是的。因此，首先，本季的趨勢部分被 4 月至 5 月的更新所掩蓋，該季度的同店基數與整個季度的同店基數不同。因此，6 月的趨勢是下降 4% 左右，最終導致本季的趨勢下降。因此，確實存在一些減速，但並不像基於不同基數的 4 月和 5 月數據所顯示的那麼顯著。

In terms of where margins ended up, we see our margins not only improve but they improved at lower credit card fees and by being at least $0.01 per gallon more aggressive than we were in the past year's quarter. So I would say with that, industry margins were up in a low price environment, we typically put a little bit more on the street to hold volume and continue to drive traffic, stay top of mind with the consumer. And that's our view that when prices achieve a more normal level versus this lower level, we're able to call some of that back.

就利潤率而言，我們發現我們的利潤率不僅有所提高，而且由於信用卡費用降低而有所提高，並且比去年同期每加侖至少高出 0.01 美元。所以我想說，在低價環境下，行業利潤率上升，我們通常會在街頭投入更多一點，以保持銷售並繼續推動客流量，讓消費者牢記在心。我們認為，當價格達到相對於較低水準的更正常水準時，我們就可以回檔部分價格。

Anthony, quickly to add. We did outpace OPUS volumes and each of our markets that we look at for the full quarter. And while June did decelerate for us, it also decelerated for OPUS. And as we mentioned a couple of times on the call, July volumes have returned back to 100% last year.

安東尼趕緊補充。我們的銷量確實超過了 OPUS 以及我們整個季度關注的每個市場。雖然我們 6 月的成長速度確實有所放緩，但 OPUS 的成長速度也同樣放緩。正如我們在電話會議中多次提到的那樣，7 月的交易量已恢復到去年的 100%。

Okay. And then just on guidance, I guess, I know you mentioned gallons sort of running below inside at the low end, but still in the range. And then you've got OpEx, SG&A running below, I guess, like net of all that, it sounds like you're more or less reiterating EBITDA, I guess, is that right? .

好的。然後只是指導，我想，我知道你提到加侖在低端內部運行，但仍在範圍內。然後，我想，你的營運支出、銷售、一般及行政費用都低於這個數字，扣除所有這些之後，聽起來你或多或少是在重申 EBITDA，對嗎？。

Well, and we don't give an EBITDA guidance because we don't give a fuel margin guidance. But yes, as you go through the puts and takes, there's a lot of offsets there. So we're on the lower end of March. We're making up for that by being at or below the better end of OpEx and G&A. And as you said, volumes slightly at or slightly below the low end -- so a lot of puts and takes there, if you will.

嗯，我們不提供 EBITDA 指導，因為我們不提供燃料利潤率指導。但是的，當你經歷投入和產出時，你會發現有很多抵消。所以我們正處於三月下旬。我們透過達到或低於營運支出和一般及行政費用的較好水準來彌補這一點。正如您所說，成交量略微處於或略低於低端——因此，如果您願意的話，那裡有很多投入和產出。

Pooran Sharma, Stephens.

普蘭夏爾馬，史蒂芬斯。

I appreciate the question here. Just wanted to get a sense of the store build looks like first half, it seemed like we were going to be a bit behind pace. And I know you've talked about getting a more even build throughout the year. But I think you mentioned still on pace for, I believe, 40. And I was going to ask what gives you confidence in hitting this number, but it sounds like you already have a lot of wheels in motion, a lot in the pipeline already. So I just wanted to ask you what's changed in your kind of store build program relative to prior years, just given your confidence talking about the next 12 months and going forward.

我很欣賞這個問題。只是想了解商店建設的情況，就像上半年一樣，我們似乎有點落後了。我知道您已經談到要在全年實現更均衡的成長。但我認為您提到了仍然在朝著 40 的方向發展。我本來想問是什麼讓您有信心達到這個數字，但聽起來您已經有很多事情在啟動，很多事情已經在籌備中。因此，鑑於您對未來 12 個月及以後的發展充滿信心，我只想問您，與前幾年相比，您的商店建設計劃有哪些變化。

Well, some of those the bottlenecks at some point, if you have so many stores in the queue that have a bottleneck they're released. And so I think that's a big part, whether it's permitting or tanks or some supply chain issues. We continue to build up the pipeline. And then I think as we've talked about on the last call, there's a few things where we've taken a different view of risk and cost to make sure that things don't get delayed that are within our control.

好吧，其中一些是某個時候的瓶頸，如果隊列中有這麼多商店遇到瓶頸，那麼它們就會被釋放。所以我認為這是一個重要部分，無論是許可、儲罐或一些供應鏈問題。我們將繼續建造管道。然後我想，正如我們在上次通話中討論的那樣，我們對一些事情的風險和成本採取了不同的看法，以確保事情不會在我們控制範圍內被延誤。

So I think when you look at the number of stores under construction, the numbers of stores, we expect to see under construction and then the pipeline beyond that for '26 and '27. That's what gives us the confidence. There's nothing like having the shovel already in the ground to know that you're going to get that store built and whether we said before, we weren't going to get to 50 openings this year. We have well more than 50 starts. And I believe when you add what we do in January to what we close the year at, we're pretty down close to that $50 number.

因此，我認為，當您查看在建商店數量、現有商店數量時，我們預計會看到在建商店數量，以及 26 年和 27 年的在建商店數量。這給了我們信心。沒有什麼比把鏟子插在地上更能讓你確定你要蓋這家店了，無論我們之前是否說過，我們今年都不會開 50 家店。我們已經超過 50 次首發了。我相信，如果把我們一月份的營業額加上年底的營業額，我們的營業額就接近 50 美元了。

Just to add a little bit. I do want to give some credit to our store development team. It's really gone aggressively looking for great sites. And our pipeline -- total pipeline now is over 250 stores. As Andrew mentioned, in the rolling next four quarters, we expect to open 50 stores. And the performance we're seeing is outstanding. As we mentioned on the call, since 2021, each class has outperformed their expectations, outperformed the pro forma. So we continue to see really good results from the stores that are open and now we're building the pipeline to open more.

僅補充一點。我確實想對我們的商店開發團隊表示一些讚揚。它確實積極地尋找優秀的網站。我們的通路－現在總通路已超過 250 家商店。正如安德魯所提到的，在接下來的四個季度裡，我們預計將開設 50 家門市。我們看到的表現非常出色。正如我們在電話會議上提到的，自 2021 年以來，每個班級的表現都超出了預期，超出了預期。因此，我們繼續看到已開業商店的良好業績，現在我們正在籌備開設更多商店。

And I would echo that too, and I think it's tougher when you come from a lower base to generate that kind of inertia and momentum. But now that we are getting that and filling the funnel with greater numbers of projects in the queue. I think it will allow us to have some momentum to continue that type of build program in the years to follow this year and next.

我也會同意這一點，我認為當你從較低基礎出發時，產生這種慣性和動力會更加困難。但現在我們已經實現了這一點，並在隊列中填充了更多的項目。我認為這將使我們在今年和明年繼續實施此類建設計劃。

Great. Appreciate the color there. And I guess for the follow-up, just wanted to get a sense of the overall demand environment and then also the degree of cost flex and like the optionality you have in the back half of the year to offset markets. We I'm only saying this because we do see several weeks of gasoline demand from the Department of Energy down year over year.

偉大的。欣賞那裡的色彩。我想，對於後續行動，只是想了解整體需求環境，然後了解成本彈性的程度，以及下半年可以抵銷市場的選擇性。我們之所以這麼說，是因為我們確實看到能源部的汽油需求連續幾週同比下降。

You did mention that you outperformed OPIS data in several of your markets. But just given the lower demand environment was just wondering if you could help us understand with a little bit more granularity what kind of optionality you have in your ability to flex your cost essentially in the back half?

您確實提到過，您在多個市場的表現都優於 OPIS 數據。但考慮到較低的需求環境，我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們更詳細地了解您在後半部分調整成本的能力方面有哪些可選性？

Yes. As it relates to demand, look, we've said it for years in a lower price environment, there's some consumer on the margin who is not as price sensitive. If you find yourself in a low-price environment where unemployment goes up, inflation continues unabated, and you start seeing various corporate changes, et cetera. that changes the dynamic. So it's really all about the price sensitivity of consumers and that consumer on the margin.

是的。至於需求，你看，我們多年來一直在說，在較低的價格環境中，有些邊緣消費者對價格不那麼敏感。如果你發現自己處在一個低價環境中，失業率上升，通貨膨脹持續不減，你開始看到各種企業變革等等，這會改變動態。所以這其實都跟消費者的價格敏感度和邊際消費者有關。

That's why we talk about putting extra penny on the street. That's why we talk about the benefits of Murphy Drive Rewards and Quick Check Rewards as tools we have now that we didn't have when prices were low in 2015, '16 in '17. And so at some point, when you invest in a company that you see fuel margins being the ultimate driver of value and you see some ebbs and flows, this is one of those trough periods where volumes from the demand side are a little bit tighter. All right?

這就是我們談論在街上投入額外資金的原因。這就是為什麼我們談論 Murphy Drive Rewards 和 Quick Check Rewards 的好處，作為我們現在擁有的工具，而在 2015 年、2016 年和 2017 年價格較低時，我們還沒有這些工具。因此，在某個時候，當你投資一家公司時，你會發現燃料利潤率是價值的最終驅動力，你會看到一些起伏，這就是需求方交易量稍微緊張的低谷期之一。好的？

And we're going to have to be more aggressive from a margin standpoint to winning customer. I think whether it's remote work, whether it's the battery electric vehicle percent of sales changing, it's the car ownership, Cafe standards, et cetera, changing we're actually bullish on the North American fuel in 2030 and beyond as a lot of changes have taken place.

從利潤率的角度來看，我們必須更積極地贏得客戶。我認為，無論是遠距工作，還是電動車銷售百分比的變化，還是汽車擁有量、咖啡館標準等的變化，我們實際上都看好 2030 年及以後的北美燃料，因為已經發生了很多變化。

As it relates to cost and optionality I think the current quarter and first half of the year is a great example of that. We've streamlined over time. If we see some lower demand, we can optimize even store hours if we have to with our unattended overnight fuel. If you see applicants more than doubling versus the same time a year ago when you see softness in the labor market, you can be thoughtful on your labor rates, especially around new employees, which was key benefit for us in the period. Loss prevention and maintenance for two other categories where we've demonstrated lower cost.

由於它與成本和可選性有關，我認為本季和今年上半年就是一個很好的例子。我們隨著時間的推移不斷精簡。如果我們發現需求下降，我們甚至可以利用無人看管的夜間燃料來優化營業時間。如果您發現勞動市場疲軟，且申請人數與去年同期相比增加了一倍以上，那麼您可以認真考慮勞動成本，尤其是新員工的成本，這是我們在此期間獲得的主要好處。對於另外兩個類別的損失預防和維護，我們已經證明成本較低。

So there are things that you can do because of the environment. There's levers you can pull, but you never want to pull back too hard on things like maintenance because those things catch up with you in the long run. You don't want to pull back on value -- as we mentioned, Quick checks had three straight quarters of food and beverage growth, which is unlike a lot of the big QSRs, who pull those levers and give up a value proposition.

因此，您可以根據環境做些事情。你可以利用槓桿，但你永遠不想在維護等事情上退縮得太厲害，因為從長遠來看，這些事情會給你帶來麻煩。您不想降低價值——正如我們所提到的，Quick Checks 的食品和飲料業務連續三個季度實現成長，這與許多大型 QSR 不同，它們會利用這些優勢並放棄價值主張。

So we're keen and well positioned to weather a cycle of lower demand, lower prices managing it for the long run because we know in the long run, our everyday low-price value model is going to be a winning model with consumers, and we've got a balance sheet, capital allocation strategy that allows us to continue to build stores in more difficult times so that when they're up and running in the cycle shifts, you're taking full advantage of that. So we don't get too wound up about any one-year demand picture, we're more bullish about the long-term demand.

因此，我們熱衷於並做好了長期應對低需求、低價格週期的準備，因為我們知道，從長遠來看，我們的日常低價價值模式將成為贏得消費者青睞的模式，而且我們擁有資產負債表和資本配置策略，這使我們能夠在更困難的時期繼續開設商店，以便當這些商店在周期轉變中恢復運營時，您可以充分利用這一點。因此，我們不會對任何一年的需求前景過於擔憂，我們對長期需求更為樂觀。

And just adding to that, particularly about the cost side of the business, we do have multiple activities underway to improve the productivity of our store -- some of those are business led, some are initiative led. Benefits are showing up, as you saw, we're controlling OpEx to the low end of our guided range. And that's despite opening those new stores, which incur full expenses day one while the revenue ramps over time.

除此之外，特別是在業務成本方面，我們確實正在進行多項活動來提高我們商店的生產力——其中一些是由業務主導的，一些是由主動主導的。如您所見，效益正在顯現，我們將營運支出控制在指導範圍的低端。儘管開設這些新店的第一天會產生全部費用，但收入會隨著時間的推移而增加。

So this quarter, we did see the improvement on several fronts, maintenance, labor, loss prevention, as Andrew mentioned. And we expect to continue to be able to drive value from all of those efforts. And we know that, look, despite whatever is happening on the demand front, we know that over time, ensuring that our stores are well supplied, they're in stock, they're clean, our equipment is working.

因此，本季度，我們確實看到了維護、勞動力、損失預防等幾個方面的改善，正如安德魯所提到的。我們希望能夠繼續從所有這些努力中創造價值。我們知道，不管需求方面發生什麼，我們知道隨著時間的推移，確保我們的商店供應充足、庫存、乾淨、設備正常運作。

Our staff is friendly and helpful are all the ingredients and the recipe that make a successful store and allow us to be able to attract and retain the customers. So that is what we're focused on. Our operating model is one of the lowest costs in the industry, and we will continue to squeeze additional costs from our business to enable that EDLP strategy, as Andrew said, which is so important to our customer who needs that.

我們的員工友好且樂於助人，這些都是成就我們商店的要素和秘訣，使我們能夠吸引和留住顧客。這就是我們所關注的重點。我們的營運模式是業界成本最低的模式之一，我們將繼續從業務中壓縮額外成本以實現 EDLP 策略，正如安德魯所說，這對有需要的客戶來說非常重要。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I had a question on merchandise contribution. You did just talk down your guidance this year, but it does still imply a healthy acceleration in the back half. So just curious to hear from you what gives you the comfort that this new guidance is achievable despite what remains a pretty challenging operating and macro environment. And then just curious to hear any specific initiatives you have in place to drive faster growth? And is your merch contribution guidance predicated on continued improvement at Quick Check.

我對商品捐贈有疑問。您確實剛剛降低了今年的預期，但這仍然意味著下半年將出現健康的加速成長。所以我很好奇想聽聽您的意見，儘管營運和宏觀環境仍然相當具有挑戰性，是什麼讓您相信這項新指導是可以實現的。我只是好奇想聽聽您有什麼具體舉措來推動更快的成長？並且您的商品貢獻指導是否基於 Quick Check 的持續改進。

So on the merch side, I think Gallagher and I both mentioned that if you take out cigarettes and lottery, the Murphy branded stores were up 8.9%. I mean, that's incredible growth in the context of the environment you described Bonnie. I mean we're seeing chocolate candy price increases. We continue to see packaged beverage increases. We've just taken a different approach with the manufacturers around value, helping them drive their baseload volume.

因此，在商品方面，我認為加拉格爾和我都提到過，如果除去香菸和彩票，墨菲品牌商店的銷售額上漲了 8.9%。我的意思是，邦妮，在你所描述的環境下，這是令人難以置信的成長。我的意思是我們看到巧克力糖果價格上漲。我們持續看到包裝飲料的銷售成長。我們只是對製造商採取了不同的價值方法，幫助他們提高基載量。

And those are two categories, packaged beverage and candy where we showed significant upside in the quarter. Other nicotine continues to do very, very well. And where we had tobacco weakness on cigarettes in the first half because of the promotional cycle, the promotions we're running in the second half, and we've already started give us confidence around that front. Other initiatives that we have as it relates to getting more customer reach we had a significant increase in new enrollments for Murphy Drive Rewards.

這兩個類別，即包裝飲料和糖果，在本季度表現出了顯著的成長勢頭。其他尼古丁的表現仍然非常非常好。由於促銷週期的影響，我們上半年的香菸銷售量較弱，而下半年我們開展的促銷活動以及已經開始的促銷活動讓我們對此充滿信心。我們採取的其他措施與擴大客戶覆蓋率有關，其中 Murphy Drive Rewards 的新註冊人數顯著增加。

And so we've got some initiatives underway to further drive that enrollment. And we see those members baskets and frequency and contribution to the business greater than participants and nonmembers. So that's one of the initiatives. And we continue to have innovation on the Quick Check side in terms of our sub which is our more value offer as well as the continued success of our premium offers there. So I would say there's just a lot of things going on.

因此，我們正在採取一些措施來進一步推動入學。我們發現會員的購物籃數量、購物頻率以及對業務的貢獻都比參與者和非會員更大。這是其中一項舉措。我們在快速檢查方面繼續進行創新，這是我們提供的更有價值的產品，也是我們優質產品的持續成功。所以我想說有很多事情正在發生。

And part of one thing that's frustrating on the Quick Check side is we're driving the sales we continue to see some headwinds around food cost and the like. And we believe when those abate, it will be a lot easier to demonstrate kind of higher margin contribution because we won't have to go back and win back the customer because we priced and gave them value during this period, so we didn't lose them. And you follow some of the other QSRs to really struggling to figure out their price per check increases that ran off so many customers. I don't know if others have anything they want to add on initiatives.

Quick Check 方面令人沮喪的一件事是，我們在推動銷售的同時，仍然看到食品成本等方面的一些阻力。我們相信，當這些因素減弱時，我們將更容易證明更高的利潤貢獻，因為我們不必回頭去贏回客戶，因為我們在此期間定價並給予他們價值，所以我們沒有失去他們。您還可以關注其他一些快餐店，他們確實很難弄清楚為什麼他們的單價會上漲，從而導致如此多的顧客流失。我不知道其他人是否還有什麼想補充的。

That was really helpful. I appreciate that color. Maybe just a quick follow-up because you touched on it, is nicotine and you highlighted some of the pressures was promotion-related the first half, and it sounds like you just mentioned you have some sense of what it's going to look like in the second half.

這真的很有幫助。我很欣賞那個顏色。也許只是一個快速的後續問題，因為您提到了尼古丁，並且您強調了一些壓力與上半年的促銷有關，聽起來您剛才提到您對下半年的情況有一些了解。

But should I understand that to mean that you feel better about the contribution from nicotine maybe being a little again stronger in the second half versus the first half? And then just wanted to hear if you're seeing any improvements with -- on that business from the so-called stepped-up efforts to crack down on illicit ES6 is that still kind of a headwind for you as well?

但我是否應該理解為，你對尼古丁的貢獻感覺更好一些，因為尼古丁在後半段的作用可能比前半段更強一些？然後我只是想聽聽您是否看到了任何改進——所謂的加大打擊非法 ES6 的力度，這對您來說是否仍然是一種阻力？

Yes. No, we're definitely more bullish on second half than first half. First half, we were just comping again some really significant promotional activity last year. The -- we also had a strong Q2 comp last year as well. I'm sure you listened to Dr. Mark are a couple of days ago when he was interviewed in the morning, he said something big is coming as it relates to illicit vapor and synthetic rate.

是的。不，我們對下半年肯定比上半年更看好。上半年，我們只是再次進行了去年一些非常重要的促銷活動。去年我們的第二季業績也表現強勁。我相信你們幾天前聽過馬克博士在早上接受採訪時說的話，他說與非法蒸汽和合成率有關的大事即將發生。

I don't know what that's something big is. I know our industry partners have been doing a funnel all-out campaign with the FDA. I was encouraged by his discussion around risk and the continuum of risk and not going to attack these broad categories broadly but really focus on the area where there's the greatest risk. So that's a very positive sentiment coming out of the FDA that we haven't heard in a very long time.

我不知道那是什麼大事。我知道我們的產業合作夥伴一直在與 FDA 一起進行全方位的宣傳活動。他關於風險和風險連續性的討論讓我感到鼓舞，他不會廣泛地攻擊這些大類，而是真正專注於風險最大的領域。這是我們很久沒有聽過的 FDA 的非常積極的情緒。

Bobby Griffin, Raymond James.

鮑比·格里芬、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I guess, Andrew, first, I want to circle back on the guidance moving parts as you guys Understanding that you guys don't guide for a fuel margin. But if you were to take the range that you gave us at first and just assume the business ends up in that fuel margin range for the year, would you still generate the level of EBITDA that, that range implied? And basically, what I'm trying to get at is just to understand if the OpEx offsets are fully offsetting the merchandise pressure we're seeing in the gallons. Just trying to understand that range and the sensitivity there.

我想，安德魯，首先，我想回到導引運動部件上，因為你們明白你們不會為了燃料裕度而進行引導。但是，如果您採用最初給我們的範圍，並假設業務最終達到當年的燃料利潤率範圍，您是否還會產生該範圍所暗示的 EBITDA 水平？基本上，我想要了解的只是營運支出抵消是否完全抵消了我們在加侖中看到的商品壓力。只是想了解那個範圍和那裡的敏感度。

Yes. So if you add all of that up and you have our original fuel margin range, you're going to be below that EBITDA number that was put out there and largely that's driven by right, and the impact that we had there. So OpEx is more than making up for challenges on the merch side we referenced on tobacco.

是的。因此，如果將所有這些加起來，你就得到了我們最初的燃料利潤率範圍，你將低於公佈的 EBITDA 數字，這主要是由正確性以及我們在那裡產生的影響所驅動的。因此，營運支出不僅彌補了我們在菸草方面提到的商品方面的挑戰。

SG&A is having a significant impact as well. So it's really going to be end of the year predicated on where we land with the fuel margin in the second half. But if you just adjust for Q1 and kind of the trajectory on the volume side in this low-price environment, that is going to have a bigger impact than the offsetting effects that OpEx and G&A have on the merch side.

銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 也產生了重大影響。因此，這實際上將取決於我們下半年的燃料利潤率。但如果你只是針對第一季和低價環境下銷售方面的軌跡進行調整，那麼這將產生比營運支出和一般及行政費用對商品方面的抵銷效應更大的影響。

Understood. That's helpful. And then, Galagher?

明白了。這很有幫助。那麼，加拉格爾呢？

And just one other point. Q1 PS&W being below, that's kind of we're still seeing a very long loose environment with a lot of high refinery utilization and a lot of exports.

還有一點。Q1 PS&W 低於預期，這意味著我們仍然看到一個非常長期的寬鬆環境，煉油廠利用率很高，出口量很大。

Yes. Good point. It's nice to see that bounce back this quarter versus the 1Q I guess my second question is more near term. I just want to make sure I understand the comments. July, back to 100%. I believe that is on an APSM basis for field fuel volume, correct? And I don't think you gave any comments on just July retail margins as we typically talk about, but anything you can share with us there? .

是的。說得好。很高興看到本季與第一季相比有所反彈，我想我的第二個問題更專注於短期。我只是想確保我理解這些評論。7月，恢復至100%。我相信這是根據 APSM 來確定現場燃料量的，對嗎？我認為您沒有對我們通常談論的 7 月份零售利潤率發表任何評論，但您可以與我們分享什麼嗎？。

No. It's on an APSM basis and with adjustments and these different calculations you do only at the end of the month. It's just premature to give a fuel margin number for July. We've been doing this call a week from today, we've had more confidence in that number.

不。它以 APSM 為基礎，並且僅在月底進行調整和這些不同的計算。現在給出七月的燃油利潤數字還為時過早。從今天開始我們已經進行了一週的電話會議，我們對這個數字更有信心了。

Understood.

明白了。

We would expect that directionally though to be somewhere in the high 20s.

我們預計該方向的成長率將在 20% 左右。

On the retail only.

僅限零售。

On the retail-only side.

僅限零售方面。

That's helpful. And I guess, just lastly for me, this really impressive OpEx performance across the P&L here. Just curious if you can unpack that a little further. Is that some timing aspects? Or is that more of the work Mindy, you and the team and everybody has been doing on productivity that we've talked about on these lower quartile stores starting to actually now move into harvest stage and flow through.

這很有幫助。我想，對我來說，最後，這裡的損益表中的營運支出表現確實令人印象深刻。我只是好奇你是否可以進一步解釋這一點。這是一些時間上的問題嗎？或者說，Mindy、您和團隊以及每個人都在生產力方面做了更多的工作，我們已經討論過這些較低四分位數商店現在實際上開始進入收穫階段並流通。

As I said earlier, we are seeing the benefits show up in the results through both business-led and initiative-led because we're really trying to tackle on all fronts, our store productivity. So yes, I think you're seeing the fruits of those efforts come to bear. And I think that there's more that we can do. We continue to identify larger opportunities and maintenance from both incident response as well as vendor accountability, also opportunities and team effectiveness.

正如我之前所說，我們看到透過業務主導和計劃主導的結果所帶來的好處，因為我們確實在努力從各個方面解決我們的商店生產力問題。所以是的，我認為你看到了這些努力的成果。我認為我們還可以做更多。我們繼續從事件回應、供應商責任、機會和團隊效率等方面尋找更大的機會和維護。

Now keep in mind though, these benefits are going to show up in multiple ways. Some of them are going to be very difficult to attribute. What I mean by that is on some levels, we're going to have cost savings through things like doing self-maintenance at our stores versus calling in a technician. Other things are going to be more cost avoidance -- so for example, by keeping fuel dispensers better maintained, that will result in fewer breakdowns. And then also things like customer loss avoidance.

不過請記住，這些好處將以多種方式反映出來。其中一些原因很難確定。我的意思是，在某種程度上，我們可以透過在商店進行自我維護而不是請技術人員來節省成本。其他事情將會更避免成本——例如，透過更好地維護加油機，將會減少故障。然後還有諸如避免客戶流失之類的事情。

Using fuel as an example, if we have a dispenser down at one of our stations, does that mean customers drive away or do they use one of the seven others that are actually working. Probably, you're not going to lose those customers initially. But eventually, if that is a chronic problem, then you are going to have certain customers who are going to look at the long lines and go somewhere else.

以加油站為例，如果我們的某個加油站的加油機出現故障，這是否意味著顧客會開車離開，還是會使用其他七個仍在運作的加油機之一。可能一開始你不會失去這些客戶。但最終，如果這是一個長期問題，那麼就會有一些顧客看到長長的隊伍就會去其他地方。

So that's why we know that over time, we're working on the right things. It may be hard to attribute that as a financial impact quarter-to-quarter. But we know that, that is the recipe for success in our stores. And yes, I think you are starting to see the green shoots really resulting in us being able to keep our OpEx under control and within the lower part of our guided range.

所以我們知道，隨著時間的推移，我們正在做正確的事情。可能很難將其歸因於季度間的財務影響。但我們知道，這是我們商店成功的秘訣。是的，我認為您已經開始看到復甦的跡象，這確實使我們能夠控制營運支出並將其控制在指導範圍的較低範圍內。

Bob, I was just going to say a couple of other things. The loss prevention opportunities has been something we have been working on for quite a while and just taking a targeted more analytical approach to how we address that. And labor rate is a big thing. So with a better demand forecasting model, we shifted from full-time to part-time labor where it makes more sense with the enhanced labor model, doing the same thing at Murphy, enhancing its labor model.

鮑勃，我只是想說幾件事。我們一直在努力尋找損失預防機會，並且採取更有針對性的分析方法來解決這個問題。勞動成本是一個大問題。因此，有了更好的需求預測模型，我們從全職勞動力轉向兼職勞動力，這對於增強勞動力模型來說更有意義，我們在墨菲也做同樣的事情，增強其勞動力模型。

But in an environment where your applicant flow is more than double what it was you do have the opportunity to be thoughtful about starting rates, rate increases, et cetera, as you maintain the competitiveness of your business, but stay in the sweet spot of where you want to be price wise in the market.

但是，在申請人流量是以往兩倍多的環境中，您確實有機會認真考慮起始費率、費率增長等，因為這樣您既能保持業務競爭力，又能保持在市場上價格最合理的最佳位置。

One more quick build just on your earning point. in a challenging demand environment like this, there's a couple of things you do while you try to spur demand. one, and Mindy team has done a great job in operations of you manage cost, right? We're doing that in our stores in the home office. And those are sustainable as she talked through.

再快速建構一個收入點。在像這樣充滿挑戰的需求環境中，您在嘗試刺激需求時會做一些事情。第一，Mindy 團隊在管理成本的營運方面做得很好，對嗎？我們正在總部的商店裡這樣做。正如她所說，這些都是可持續的。

we're not expecting this to be a onetime effort. We're continuing to manage costs. And the second is you optimize cash, and we're spending our cash on the things that will pay off in very long term, such as the new stores and the share repurchase. But we are expecting the demand environment to come back, but we will have a lower cost structure when it does.

我們並不期望這是一次性的努力。我們將繼續管理成本。第二是優化現金，我們將把現金花在那些長期能帶來回報的事情上，例如新店和股票回購。但我們預期需求環境將會回暖，屆時我們的成本結構將會降低。

Jacob Aiken-Phillips, Melius Research.

Jacob Aiken-Phillips，Melius Research。

So first, I wanted to talk a bit more about PS&W. Last quarter, there was a lot of focus on it. You went through like the temporal was the co-structural factors, et cetera. So you already just talked about retail margins. I'm just curious if you can speak about like why the blip in 2Q and what we can expect for the rest of the year and going forward?

首先，我想多談談 PS&W。上個季度，人們對此給予了極大關注。您經歷過的時間是共同結構因素等等。所以您剛才已經談到零售利潤了。我只是好奇，您能否談談為什麼第二季會出現這樣的波動，以及我們對今年剩餘時間和未來的預期是什麼？

I can take that one. When we look at the first quarter results, PS&W of around 1.73%, I think it was in a quarter that was really characterized by very low volatility a much longer supply environment than this quarter, although this quarter is still very long and loose. It was worse actually in the first quarter. And then, of course, we had all the storms, with hundreds of stores down. So that impacted our demand profile.

我可以接受那個。當我們查看第一季的業績時，PS&W 約為 1.73%，我認為這個季度的波動性非常低，供應環境比本季長得多，儘管本季仍然非常漫長且寬鬆。第一季的情況實際上更糟。當然，後來我們遭遇了暴風雨，數百家商店倒閉。這影響了我們的需求狀況。

So when we look at this quarter and why the difference, still a pretty well-supplied market Yes, there were higher RIN values, but there was also a correspondingly offset results in our transfer to retail. Price is 10% lower on absolute levels. And so part of the difference between the impact this quarter versus last year. Last quarter is just the amount of length in the supply market and also the direction and movement of pricing, which impacts what we call our non-controllables. So is the timing of pricing and inventory variances as well as the length of supply in the market was a little bit tighter this quarter versus last.

因此，當我們回顧本季以及為什麼會出現這種差異時，我們發現市場供應仍然相當充足，是的，RIN 值較高，但在我們轉移到零售業時也相應地產生了抵消結果。價格絕對水準低 10%。這就是本季與去年同期的影響之間的部分差異。上個季度只是供應市場的長度以及定價的方向和變動，這影響了我們所謂的不可控制因素。因此，本季的定價時間和庫存差異以及市場供應時間與上一季相比略有緊張。

And then so on share repurchases or I guess, capital allocation, it seems like you may have like levered up a little bit or took out some debt to do that level of repurchase. I understand the valuation dynamic, but can you walk through how you're like balancing leverage tolerance versus growth capital returns, given like the softer fuel volumes?

那麼，對於股票回購，或者我猜，資本配置，似乎你可能已經稍微提高了一點槓桿，或者承擔了一些債務來進行這種程度的回購。我了解估值動態，但考慮到燃料銷售疲軟，您能否說明如何平衡槓桿容忍度與成長資本回報？

Yes. So we don't borrow money for any one particular purpose. We have a 50-50 capital allocation strategy. So you could have asked the question differently, and so it seemed like you levered up to get all those stores in the pipeline. So we have a long-term commitment to that capital allocation strategy.

是的。所以我們借錢不是為了任何特定的目的。我們有一個 50-50 的資本配置策略。所以你可以用不同的方式提出這個問題，這樣看起來你似乎已經加大了槓桿來獲得所有這些商店。因此，我們對此資本配置策略有著長期的承諾。

So our financial framework is geared to that. So for every dollar, we borrow 50% for growth, 50% for shareholder distribution. So don't think about leveraging up to buy shares. It's just whatever leverage we need to maintain that 50-50. And we said we'd probably be hitting the balance sheet a little bit in '25 and '26. And in 27, 28, 29 and beyond, your excess cash flow is going to be going in the opposite direction.

所以我們的財務框架就是為此而製定的。因此，對於每一美元，我們借入 50% 用於成長，50% 用於股東分配。所以不要想著加槓桿買股票。我們需要利用一切手段來維持 50-50 的比例。我們說過，我們可能會在 25 年和 26 年稍微影響資產負債表。而在 27、28、29 年及以後，你的超額現金流將會朝著相反的方向發展。

Jacob, just to reiterate, we're very purposeful with our balance sheet. We took on some additional financing early in Q2 to make sure we had the flexibility to run our strategy for the next three-plus years. So that strategy, as Andrew mentioned, is investing in new stores, continuing to repurchases. We've said we're comfortable at leverage around 2.5 or below. We're going to be right at 2.0 Q2 right now. So we're very comfortable with our balance sheet and gives us a lot of flexibility as we go forward.

雅各布，我再次重申一下，我們的資產負債表非常有目的性。我們在第二季初獲得了一些額外融資，以確保我們能夠靈活地在未來三年多的時間內實施我們的策略。正如安德魯所提到的，該策略就是投資新店，繼續回購。我們說過，我們對 2.5 左右或以下的槓桿率感到滿意。我們現在將進入 2.0 Q2。因此，我們對我們的資產負債表非常滿意，這為我們未來的發展提供了巨大的靈活性。

Brad Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

布拉德‧托馬斯 (Brad Thomas)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

I wanted to follow up a bit on the fuel volume trends. And I was just wondering if you could just touch on the competitive landscape. Curious if you feel like you're seeing anything different there? And then as you look at sort of the locations of stores, wondering if any difference geographically or perhaps those more co-located with Walmart versus those not so where you might be seeing any differences? .

我想稍微追蹤一下燃料量的趨勢。我只是想知道您是否可以談談競爭格局。好奇您是否覺得在那裡看到了什麼不同的東西？然後，當您查看商店的位置時，想知道在地理位置上是否存在差異，或者那些與沃爾瑪位於同一地點的商店與那些不位於同一地點的商店之間是否存在差異，那麼您可能會在哪裡看到任何差異？。

No real differences between Walmart versus non-Walmart locations. I mean our customer behavior is pretty consistent across formats and markets and proximity to different retailers. I would say that other everyday low-price retailers experience the same thing we do from a convenience standpoint on the margin. There are some customers that may go to a more convenient store.

沃爾瑪和非沃爾瑪門市之間沒有真正的區別。我的意思是，我們的客戶行為在不同形式、不同市場以及與不同零售商的距離上相當一致。我想說，從邊際便利性的角度來看，其他日常低價零售商也經歷了與我們相同的事情。有些顧客可能會去更方便的商店。

Certainly, in some of our markets, DFW is a great example. There's just a lot of low-price retailers there, so it's pretty convenient to find the next one. So nothing really different from a dynamic standpoint and kind of big established markets where competitive entry has taken place a few years ago. What we see every year somewhere is a high-volume retailer emerging in a new market area. And when they move in, there's greater competition. Just like when we move in to certain markets.

當然，在我們的一些市場中，DFW 就是一個很好的例子。那裡有很多低價零售商，所以找到下一家非常方便。因此，從動態角度來看，與幾年前就已經出現競爭性進入的大型成熟市場並沒有什麼不同。我們每年都會看到某個地方出現一家大型零售商，闖入一個新的市場領域。而當他們搬進來時，競爭就會更加激烈。就像我們進入某些市場時一樣。

And sometimes we move in at the same time as someone else. And so you may see some downward pressure on margins as you establish kind of the new equilibrium. And then margins are store. And fortunately, these are markets that are growing markets, which is why we're investing in them and others might be investing in them. So in any given year, there's going to be one or two pockets geographically where you see market entry at scale and there's greater competition. I would say in a lower price environment, generally, we're not the only one that's probably been a little bit more aggressive trying to retain customers.

有時我們會和其他人同時搬進來。因此，當你建立新的平衡時，你可能會看到利潤率面臨一些下行壓力。然後存儲利潤。幸運的是，這些市場正在成長，這就是我們投資這些市場以及其他人可能投資這些市場的原因。因此，在任何一年中，從地理位置來看，都會有一兩個地區出現大規模的市場進入，競爭也更加激烈。我想說，在低價環境下，一般來說，我們並不是唯一一家採取更積極措施來留住客戶的公司。

That's helpful, Andrew. And as we think about OpEx and the success that you've seen here this quarter with some initiatives. Can you help us just think about -- does that take on a growing importance for you if volumes remain a bit weak in the near term? And how do you think about the opportunities in front of you on that aspect of the business?

這很有幫助，安德魯。當我們考慮營運支出以及您在本季透過一些措施所取得的成功時。您能否幫助我們思考一下—如果短期內交易量仍然有點疲軟，這對您來說是否變得越來越重要？您如何看待您面臨的這方面商業機會？

Yes. That's a great question. Look, at the last investor conference we went to, there are a lot of questions kind of short term, long term. We just kind of got everyone focused back to slide 10 of the presentation we delivered at the Raymond James presentation in March. And it's really simple. We run highly productive, low-cost stores. And we have a zero breakeven target. And if we were at full ramp on our new stores, we'd be doing better than that.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。你看，在我們參加的上次投資人會議上，有許多短期和長期的問題。我們只是讓大家把注意力集中到我們在 3 月的 Raymond James 演講中所做的第 10 張投影片。這真的很簡單。我們經營的是高生產力、低成本的商店。我們的目標是零損益平衡。如果我們全力開辦新店，我們的業績會更好。

And it's basically the Merc contribution covers the OpEx and field in direct G&A. And so to the extent we can make improvements there, especially if we're seeing some temporal headwinds on the merchandise side, we maintained that zero breakeven -- and then when you see a fuel margin that's being structurally resilient and growing, we're able to then with reductions in our non-direct G&A keep more cents per gallon on an adjusted EBITDA basis.

基本上，Merc 的貢獻涵蓋了營運支出和直接 G&A 領域。因此，在我們能夠做出改進的範圍內，特別是如果我們看到商品方面出現一些暫時的逆風，我們保持零盈虧平衡 - 然後當你看到燃料利潤率在結構上具有彈性和增長時，我們能夠通過減少非直接的 G&A 費用，在調整後的 EBITDA 基礎上保持每加侖更多的美分。

And it kind of goes back to that long-run thesis where I kind of did the reconciliation Yes, we've put an extra $0.01 or two on the street over the last few years in this low price environment. And so we're not even capturing the full extent of that structurally resilient margin that we're seeing. And so at the end, that EBITDA margin on cents per gallon, it's all about growing your fuel volume. And we know that we're going to see some same-store declines in mature rural markets where we may be doing race and rebuilds, but demographics are shifting.

這有點回到我所做的長期論點中，是的，在過去幾年的低價環境下，我們在街上額外投入了 0.01 美元或 2 美元。因此，我們甚至沒有充分了解我們所看到的結構彈性邊際。因此，最終，每加侖 EBITDA 利潤率取決於燃料量的增加。我們知道，在成熟的農村市場，我們可能會看到同店銷售額下降，我們可能會在這些市場進行競爭和重建，但人口結構正在改變。

But as Mindy and Galagher said, our new stores are performing not only at a much higher level, but much higher than our expectations and especially on a gallon basis. And so with 50 stores at ramp, we keep growing that total fuel volume on a growing EBITDA margin. That's what creates the cash flow machine this business is and that beautiful virtual cycle of then reinvesting into future growth and then having the cash flow to buy back shares, pay our dividend and any other priorities.

但正如 Mindy 和 Galagher 所說，我們的新店表現不僅達到了更高的水平，而且遠遠超出了我們的預期，尤其是按加侖計算。因此，隨著 50 家商店的增多，我們的總燃料量不斷增加，EBITDA 利潤率也不斷提高。這就是創造這項業務的現金流機器的原因，以及創造一個美好的虛擬循環，然後將現金流重新投資於未來的成長，然後利用現金流回購股票、支付股息和任何其他優先事項。

So that's really how we think about it. And we're less worried about kind of the ebbs and flows of the cycle, need temporal effects. We've got the structural business. We've got the structural advantage because of our low operating and overhead cost with that zero breakeven, we'll be able to keep over the long run, more of the fuel margin versus the marginal player and continue to grow EBITDA.

這就是我們真正的想法。我們不太擔心週期的起伏，只需要擔心時間的影響。我們擁有結構性業務。由於我們的營運成本和管理成本較低，且損益平衡為零，因此我們擁有結構性優勢，從長遠來看，與邊際參與者相比，我們將能夠維持更高的燃料利潤率，並繼續增加 EBITDA。

And Brad, well, I would say that the OpEx mathematically may, in certain cycles need to be more important. What I would hope is that culturally, it doesn't feel more important because it needs to always feel important, right? We are running an everyday low price model for our customer who depends on that and we cannot do that without underpinning that with everyday low cost. So regardless of the environment, we have to be ruthless on our cost, and it should just be part of our DNA and what we do every day.

布拉德，嗯，我想說，從數學上講，在某些週期內，營運支出可能需要變得更加重要。我希望從文化角度來看，它不會感覺更重要，因為它需要始終感覺重要，對嗎？我們正在為依賴該模式的客戶實施每日低價模式，如果沒有每日低成本的支持，我們就無法做到這一點。因此，無論環境如何，我們都必須毫不留情地付出代價，這應該成為我們 DNA 的一部分，也是我們每天所做的事情的一部分。

Corey Tarlowe, Jefferies.

科里‧塔洛 (Corey Tarlowe)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

I was just wanted to ask a question on the long term. As you think about the 2020 target that you put out, what were some of the big changes that you want to highlight? What's different why make the update today and how you're thinking about the building blocks of getting to that new target from where we're at currently.

我只是想問一個關於長期的問題。當您考慮您提出的 2020 年目標時，您想要強調哪些重大變化？今天進行更新有何不同？您如何考慮從當前情況出發，實現新目標的基石？

I think in terms of building it today, it's kind of been out there. And with some of the headwinds that we've had, people just asked the straightforward question is that target is still intact. So when you hear investors ask a question, enough times, you go back and say, okay, let's update that target and reconcile the assumptions that we had with the new assumptions and provide a new view of that. It's just really a simple is that. We've broken it down kind of similar to that slide 10, right?

我認為就今天的建造而言，它已經存在了。儘管我們遇到了一些阻力，但人們只是直接問了一個問題：這個目標是否仍然完好無損。因此，當你聽到投資者多次提出問題時，你會回過頭說，好吧，讓我們更新這個目標，並將我們先前的假設與新的假設相協調，並提供一個新的觀點。這真的很簡單。我們把它分解得與第 10 張幻燈片類似，對嗎？

If you think about same-store performance outside of fuel, we're behind our Quick Check merchandise and Murphy merchandise. And fortunately, OpEx and G&A covers most of that gap in the 2028 view off about $20 million. Both are going to be compounding in the future off of a lower base. But as Mindy noted, if you're able to kind of keep that relationship intact, that's what's different for us versus other retailers.

如果您考慮燃料以外的同店業績，我們的 Quick Check 商品和 Murphy 商品表現最佳。幸運的是，到 2028 年，營運支出和一般及行政費用將彌補大部分缺口，約 2,000 萬美元。未來，這兩項因素都將在較低基數的基礎上不斷疊加。但正如 Mindy 所說，如果你能夠保持這種關係的完整，這就是我們與其他零售商的不同之處。

They may be shrinking their merch contribution and growing their OpEx. So that's really positive. The new stores the impact there isn't as big a difference in the 2028. We will miss those store months in 29 and 30. When they're at full ramp. The good news is -- that goal was to start in '24. We're going to hit 50 starts in 25, 50 openings, if you include January.

他們可能會減少商品貢獻並增加營運支出。這確實是積極的。新店對 2028 年的影響並沒有那麼大。我們將懷念 29 號和 30 號的商店月份。當他們全速前進時。好消息是——這個目標將於 24 年開始實現。如果算上一月份的話，我們將在 25 到 50 個開局中完成 50 場比賽。

And the good news is those stores are performing at a better rate. the same-store volumes have been really offset by the improvements that we see and expect to see in retail margins without slowing that penny back without getting that extra penny and just PS&W getting back to a $0.025 to $0.03 range. And so that kind of gets you back to about a $1.2 billion EBITDA. And then we expect to see a more normal price environment.

好消息是這些商店的業績表現更好。同店銷售量的下降實際上已經被我們看到的和預期的零售利潤率的提高所抵消，而沒有減緩這一分錢的回落，也沒有獲得額外的分錢，只是 PS&W 回到了 0.025 美元到 0.03 美元的範圍內。這樣一來，EBITDA 就回到了約 12 億美元。然後我們期望看到更正常的價格環境。

Look, it's going to be a bumpy trail to 1.2%, 1.3% to 2028 to 2029. And to '30, we're really thinking about what does the business look like on a sustainable basis. And certainly, when we build our longer-range plans and set expectations and present those to our Board as we think about capital allocation and reaffirming our 50-50 objectives, we need to do that in a normalized environment.

你看，到 2028 年到 2029 年，達到 1.2%、1.3% 的道路將是坎坷的。到 30 年，我們真正思考的是業務在永續發展的基礎上會是什麼樣子。當然，當我們制定長期計劃、設定期望並將其提交給董事會時，當我們考慮資本配置並重申我們的 50-50 目標時，我們需要在正常化的環境中做到這一點。

But we also need to understand there are going to be periods that are better like 2022 and early '23. And there are going to be periods that are a little bit softer. And that's why the balance sheet stays conservative as Gallagher talked about, because we will win in any environment. We want to build in any environment.

但我們也需要明白，未來會有更好的時期，例如 2022 年和 2023 年初。而且還會有稍微寬鬆的時期。這就是加拉格爾所說的資產負債表保持保守的原因，因為我們在任何環境下都會獲勝。我們希望在任何環境下進行建設。

We don't want to be slowing down growth in a weaker part of the cycle because the point is when those stores are up and running, you're back to a normal environment or better and the stores ramped up and then you're getting even more out of it and a better return. And that's the philosophy we've had since the spin, right? We're going to be capital disciplined. We're going to invest in the best of times and the worst of times so long as we believe that we have a proven winning model, which we do.

我們不想在週期較弱的階段減緩成長，因為關鍵在於當這些商店恢復營運時，您就會回到正常環境或更好的環境，商店會擴大規模，然後您會從中獲得更多收益並獲得更好的回報。這就是我們自旋轉以來一直秉持的哲學，對嗎？我們將嚴格資本紀律。只要我們相信我們擁有一個行之有效的成功模式，無論在最好的時候還是最壞的時候，我們都會進行投資，而我們確實有這樣的信心。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then I just wanted to ask another question on the back half. As you think about the dynamics that you've seen in the first half, is there anything that maybe sticks or changes or goes away as you think about what the back half might look like? I know that there is some change in the tobacco expectations, but would be curious to know if there's anything else that you expect from either an operational or financial perspective that would shift as we kind of turn the corner into the back half here?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後我只想問關於後半部分的另一個問題。當您思考上半場所見的動態時，當您思考下半場可能會是什麼樣子時，是否有什麼東西可能會保持不變、改變或消失？我知道菸草預期會有一些變化，但我很好奇，當我們進入後半段時，您是否從營運或財務角度預期會發生其他變化？

Not at this point. And I think given some of the areas that were weak in the first half, we'd like to think there's more upside than downside in those areas and then especially relative to some of the comps from last year. As we noted, despite some pretty remarkable geopolitical events, we didn't see a high level of volatility. Could that change? I don't know.

目前還不行。我認為，考慮到上半年一些表現疲軟的領域，我們認為這些領域的上行空間大於下行空間，尤其是相對於去年的一些同類產品而言。正如我們所注意到的，儘管發生了一些相當引人注目的地緣政治事件，但我們並沒有看到高度的波動。這種情況會改變嗎？我不知道。

But if you see the high level of political activity, is it going to really show up in crude prices as it did in the first half of the year. So we're going to be a taker of those inputs and we're just going to execute our model around them because those are the things that are outside of our control, and we're just focused on the things that we can do within our control, and we continue to have a lot of arrows in our quiver to continue to improve this business.

但如果你看到政治活動高度活躍，它是否真的會像今年上半年一樣在原油價格上反映出來？因此，我們將接受這些輸入，並圍繞它們執行我們的模型，因為這些是我們無法控制的事情，我們只專注於我們可以控制範圍內的事情，我們將繼續利用各種資源來繼續改善這項業務。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Andrew Clyde for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給安德魯·克萊德，請他作結束語。

Great. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining in. appreciate the opportunity to provide an update on our guidance, but also how we think about long-term value creation for shareholders. Thank you very much.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝大家的參與。感謝有機會提供我們最新的指導意見，同時也感謝我們如何考慮為股東創造長期價值。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。