Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (MUFG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for waiting. We will now begin the online conference call on financial highlights for fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. I am Okamoto from Investor Relations Office Financial Planning Division and will serve as the moderator today.

感謝您的等待。我們現在將開始關於三菱日聯金融集團截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的財政年度財務亮點的線上電話會議。我是投資人關係辦公室財務規劃部的岡本，今天擔任主持人。

Jun Togawa, Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO, will give a 15-minute presentation on the financial highlights for FY24, followed by a Q&A session. The entire session is scheduled to be about 50 minutes.

高階管理公司執行長兼集團財務長 Jun Togawa 將就 2024 財年的財務亮點進行 15 分鐘的演講，隨後進行問答環節。整個會議預計持續約 50 分鐘。

Before we begin, let me read the disclaimer. In this presentation, we may state forward-looking statements based on current expectations, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please be aware that actual results may differ materially from these forecasts.

在我們開始之前，請允許我讀免責聲明。在本報告中，我們可能會根據目前預期做出前瞻性陳述，所有這些陳述都受風險和不確定性的影響。請注意，實際結果可能與這些預測有重大差異。

We will now begin the financial results briefing. Mr. Togawa, please begin.

我們現在開始財務業績簡報。請戶川先生開始。

Good evening. I am Togawa, Group CFO of MUFG. May I thank all the investors, shareholders, and rating agencies for joining MUFG's online conference call today, despite the late hour. Please look at the material titled Financial Highlights under JGAAP for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.

晚安.我是三菱日聯金融集團財務長戶川 (Togawa)。我要感謝所有投資者、股東和評級機構儘管時間已晚，仍然參加今天的三菱日聯金融集團線上電話會議。請參閱截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的財政年度的 JGAAP 財務摘要資料。

First, let me explain our FY24 financial results, followed by FY25 performance targets, shareholder return measures, and the status of administrative actions. Let me start from the income statement summary on page 9. For FY24, we included 15 months' worth of profits for Krungsri in Thailand due to the change in the equity method accounting date. The impact of this change for Krungsri is summarized on page 14, so please take a look at it later.

首先，讓我解釋一下我們的 FY24 財務業績，然後是 FY25 業績目標、股東回報措施以及行政行動的現狀。讓我從第 9 頁的損益表摘要開始。對於 FY24，由於權益法會計日期的變化，我們將泰國 Krungsri 的 15 個月的利潤計入其中。此變更對 Krungsri 的影響已在第 14 頁進行了總結，請稍後查看。

FX impact is stronger yen against the dollar compared to the end of FY23, but weaker yen in our US subsidiary with changes in the financial results closing date and weaker yen against the Thai baht. Weaker yen had a major impact on gross profits and expenses, where Krungsri accounts for a large portion, and stronger yen had impact on net income, where Morgan Stanley accounts for a large part. As a result, the FX impact on net income is almost flat this time.

外匯影響是，與 23 財年末相比，日圓兌美元走強，但由於財務結果截止日期的變化，我們美國子公司的日圓走弱，且日圓兌泰銖走弱。日圓貶值對毛利潤和費用產生了較大影響，其中大韓民國佔了很大一部分，而日圓升值則對淨利潤產生了較大影響，其中摩根士丹利佔了很大一部分。因此，此次外匯對淨收入的影響幾乎持平。

Line 1 in the left table, gross profits, increased by JPY86.7 billion year on year. Line 2 and below shows the breakdown of gross profits. Both net interest income and fee income increased steadily, thanks to the impact of the increased net interest income with improved margins by capturing the impact of yen interest rate hike, growth of fee businesses in Japan and overseas, such as Solutions Wealth Management, AMIS business, as well as Krungsri impact mentioned earlier, and M&A impact, mainly in Asia.

左表第1行毛利年增867億日圓。第 2 行及以下顯示了毛利的明細。淨利息收入和手續費收入均穩定成長，這得益於日圓利率上調帶來的利潤率提高帶來的淨利息收入增加、日本和海外手續費業務的增長，如解決方案財富管理、AMIS業務，以及前面提到的Krungsri的影響，以及主要在亞洲的併購影響。

On the other hand, we accounted net losses on debt securities of around JPY780 billion realized through rebalance of the bond portfolio, which leveraged the one-time gain on sale of equity holdings and the reversal of large credit costs. Therefore, total gross profits increase was marginal.

另一方面，我們透過重新平衡債券投資組合實現了約 7,800 億日圓的債務證券淨損失，這利用了出售股權的一次性收益和大額信貸成本的逆轉。因此，總毛利增幅很小。

Next, line 6, G&A expenses, increased by JPY339.3 billion year on year due to Krungsri impact, the impact of overseas acquisitions, as well as investments for the growth and effects of inflation. Expense ratio increased significantly as gross profits decreased through the rebalance of bond portfolio. However, as shown in 2 on the right and footnote 3, excluding this impact, it improved year on year thanks to successful expense control combined with the increase in gross profit.

接下來，第 6 行一般及行政費用由於 Krungsri 的影響、海外收購的影響以及增長投資和通貨膨脹的影響而同比增加了 3393 億日元。由於債券組合調整導致毛利下降，費用率大幅上升。但如右側2和註腳3所示，除去此影響，由於費用控製成功，加上毛利增加，較去年同期有所改善。

As a result, line 8, net operating profits, was JPY1,591.1 billion, down by JPY252.5 billion. But excluding the impact of the bond portfolio rebalance, as I explained earlier, it increased significantly by JPY327.4 billion year on year, as shown in line 9.

因此，第8項淨營業利潤為15,911億日元，下降了2,525億日元。但如我先前所解釋的，排除債券投資組合再平衡的影響，它較去年大幅增加了3,274億日圓，如第9行所示。

Next, line 10, credit costs, was down significantly by JPY389.1 billion year on year. I will explain this in a separate slide later.

其次，第10項信貸成本較去年同期大幅下降3,891億日圓。我稍後會在單獨的幻燈片中解釋這一點。

Line 11, net gains on equity securities, increased significantly, thanks to the progress in the sale of equity holdings. As a result, line 17, profits attributable to owners of parent, was JPY1,862.9 billion, a record high for two consecutive years.

第 11 行，股權證券淨收益，由於股權出售取得進展而大幅增加。結果，第17項（歸屬於母公司股東的利潤）達到18,629億日圓，連續兩年創歷史新高。

As shown on line 18, excluding the impact of the change in the closing period for Morgan Stanley in FY23 and Krungsri in FY24, profits increased by JPY434.1 billion.

如第18行所示，排除摩根士丹利23財年和大城24財年結算期變動的影響，獲利增加了4,341億日圓。

Pages 10 through 13 show the performance by business group. I will not go into detail, but page 13, Global Markets profit decreased due to recording of losses from bond portfolio rebalance, while in customer segments, all business groups steadily increased their net operating profits thanks to increases in net interest income from loans and deposits and fee income.

第 10 頁至第 13 頁顯示了各業務組的表現。我就不細說了，但是第13頁，全球市場利潤因記錄債券投資組合重新平衡的損失而下降，而在客戶部門，由於貸款和存款的淨利息收入和手續費收入的增加，所有業務集團的淨營業利潤都穩步增加。

On the other hand, net income decreased due to Global Markets and Retail and Digital business group with NICOS system impairment and the increase in Akom's provision for loss on interest repayment and GCB and AMIS with the goodwill impairment of investees. However, these are all one-off events that will lead to the accumulation of future profits.

另一方面，由於全球市場和零售及數位業務集團的 NICOS 系統減值、Akom 的利息償還損失準備金增加以及 GCB 和 AMIS 的被投資方商譽減值，淨收入減少。然而，這些都是一次性事件，將導致未來利潤的累積。

Please turn to page 15 on balance sheet summary. The diagram on the left shows the overview of our balance sheet. Loans on the upper left increased by approximately JPY4.5 trillion from the end of FY23. This is due to an increase in government loans in Japan, but it is a transfer from short-term JGB for ALM purpose as I mentioned in the first-half results. The balance of overseas loans decreased, thanks to credit management focusing on profitability.

請翻到資產負債表摘要第15頁。左圖顯示了我們的資產負債表概覽。左上角的貸款較23財年末增加了約4.5兆日圓。這是由於日本政府貸款增加所致，但正如我在上半年業績中提到的那樣，這是從短期日本政府債券轉移到資產負債管理目的的。境外貸款餘額下降，信貸管理以效益為中心。

Page 16 shows the status of domestic loans. The left graph, changes in the period and balance, shows that large corporates decreased by JPY1 trillion while SMEs increased by JPY1 trillion compared to the end of March '24. However, due to the definition of the graph, loans to SPCs, such as LBOs and real estate non-recourse loans, are counted as SMEs. So by market, both the large corporates and SMEs markets remained flat as profit management continues to be tightened.

第16頁顯示了國內貸款狀況。左圖為期間及餘額的變化，顯示與24年3月底相比，大型企業減少了1兆日元，而中小企業增加了1兆日圓。然而，由於圖表的定義，對 SPC 的貸款（例如 LBO 和房地產無追索權貸款）被視為中小企業。因此，從市場來看，由於利潤管理持續收緊，大型企業和中小企業市場都保持穩定。

The graph on the bottom right shows the trend in domestic corporate lending spreads. The red line for large corporates is currently flat due to the timing of repayments for large LBO transactions, but the uptrend continues along with the orange line for SMEs, thanks to the success of profitability improvement measures.

右下角的圖表顯示的是國內企業貸款利差的趨勢。由於大型槓桿收購交易的還款時間問題，大型企業的紅線目前持平，但由於盈利能力改善措施的成功，中小企業的橙線繼續呈現上升趨勢。

Next, page 17 shows the status of overseas loans. The bottom right graph shows the trend in overseas lending spreads. While the balance is decreasing, lending spreads continue to expand as profitability improvement efforts have been successful just like in Japan.

接下來第17頁顯示的是海外貸款的情況。右下圖顯示的是海外貸款利差的趨勢。雖然餘額在減少，但貸款利差卻在繼續擴大，因為盈利能力改善的努力與日本一樣取得了成功。

Please turn to page 18 on asset quality. Non-performing loan balance, shown in the left bar graph, decreased in Europe and the US following a significant increase at the end of March last year. As a result, NPL ratio, the line graph, also declined.

請翻到第18頁有關資產品質的內容。左側長條圖顯示的歐洲和美國的不良貸款餘額繼去年3月底大幅增加之後有所下降。因此，不良貸款率（折線圖）也下降了。

The bottom right graph shows the breakdown of year-over-year changes in total credit costs. On the bank non-consolidated basis, there was a large increase in provisions last year, mainly overseas, but credit costs decreased significantly this year due to reversal of large credit costs.

右下圖顯示了信貸總成本同比變化的細目。在銀行非合併口徑下，去年撥備大幅增加，主要來自海外，但今年由於大額信貸成本的沖銷，信貸成本大幅下降。

On the other hand, credit costs increased at overseas subsidiaries due to the impact of business expansion of subsidiaries acquired in the Asian partner bank domain and the economic slowdown in countries around the world. However, this is within our expectations. In addition, we recorded the impact of recent trade policies in major countries on credit costs to a certain degree in our FY24 financial results based on reasonable estimates at this time.

另一方面，受亞洲合作銀行領域收購的子公司業務擴張及世界各國經濟放緩的影響，海外子公司的信貸成本增加。不過，這也在我們的預料之中。此外，我們根據目前的合理估計，在FY24財務業績中一定程度上記錄了近期主要國家貿易政策對信貸成本的影響。

Please turn to page 19, the status of investment securities such as equities and government bonds. Left top table shows unrealized gains and losses. The valuation gain on domestic equity securities in the third row decreased by JPY1.3 trillion compared to the end of March '24 due to progress in reducing equity holdings and year-on-year decline in stock prices. On the other hand, the valuation loss on foreign bonds shown in the eighth row has been largely eliminated due to the rebalancing of the bond portfolio, as explained earlier, although some valuation losses related to bond subject to regulations on collateral remain.

請翻到第19頁，股票和政府公債等投資證券的狀況。左上表顯示未實現的收益和損失。第三排國內股票證券的估值收益因減持進展及股價較去年同期下跌，較2024年3月底減少1.3兆日圓。另一方面，第八行所示的外國債券的估價損失已由於債券投資組合的重新平衡而基本消除，如前所述，儘管仍存在一些與受抵押品監管的債券相關的估值損失。

And additionally, as shown on the lower left bottom graph, the valuation has turned positive at the end of March '25 on a net basis after considering unrealized gains and losses from hedging positions. There are no valuation losses when considering hedging positions at the end of April either on approximate basis.

此外，如左下角圖表所示，在考慮了對沖頭寸的未實現損益後，估值在 25 年 3 月底的淨值已變為正值。無論以近似值計算，在考慮 4 月底的對沖部位時均不存在估價損失。

Regarding domestic bonds shown in the upper graph, the estimated unrealized valuation loss after reflecting hedging positions at the end of April remains at JPY0.2 trillion. Regarding the reduction of equity holdings shown on the right, we sold JPY276 billion of equity at acquisition cost basis in FY24, which is 40% progress against target of JPY700 billion. The agreed amount to be sold also exceeds 70% against the target.

對於上圖所示的國內債券，反映 4 月底對沖頭寸後的估計未實現估值損失仍為 0.2 兆日圓。關於右側所示的股權減持，我們在 24 財年以收購成本出售了 2,760 億日圓的股權，距離 7,000 億日圓的目標已完成 40%。約定的銷售數量也超出目標的70%。

Please proceed to page 21 for capital adequacy. The CET1 ratio based on the finalized and fully implemented Basel III and excluding net unrealized gains on AFS securities was 10.8%, primarily due to the larger foreign currency translation reserve due to yen depreciation recognition delay. While we should aim to be within the target range, given the current dollar-yen exchange rate, the excess portion is already diminished, and we expect a return to the target range by the end of FY25, considering the increase in risk-weighted assets.

請翻到第 21 頁查看資本充足率。根據最終確定並全面實施的巴塞爾協議 III，且不包括可供出售證券的淨未實現收益，CET1 比率為 10.8%，這主要是由於日元貶值確認延遲導致外幣折算準備金增加。雖然我們應該力爭在目標範圍內，但考慮到目前的美元兌日圓匯率，超額部分已經減少，考慮到風險加權資產的增加，我們預計到25財年末將回到目標範圍。

The capital allocation results are shown in the lower right. We will continue to manage capital with a focus on balancing shareholder returns and growth investment.

資金配置結果如右下方。我們將繼續管理資本，重點平衡股東回報和成長投資。

Next, FY25 financial targets. Please kindly turn back to page 3. On the left side, profits attributable to owners apparent, FY25 target is to reach JPY2 trillion, the first time since the establishment of MUFG, despite the high level of uncertainty in the current business environment, with JPX basis already target of 10%. As shown in the chart on the lower left, although there will be some impact from the one-off gains and losses recorded in FY24, continued profit growth in the customer segment and the improvement in accrual interest income resulting from the rebalance of bond portfolio will be the main drivers of profit growth.

接下來是 FY25 財務目標。請翻回第 3 頁。左側，所有者應占利潤明顯，FY25 目標是達到 2 兆日元，這是三菱日聯金融集團成立以來的首次，儘管當前商業環境的不確定性很高，但 JPX 基準已達到 10% 的目標。如左下圖所示，雖然FY24錄得的一次性損益會造成一定影響，但客戶板塊的持續利潤增長以及債券組合再平衡帶來的應計利息收入的改善將是利潤增長的主要驅動力。

The assumptions for the business environment is that trade negotiations between major countries will progress to a certain extent, and that the global supply chain will not be significantly disrupted. Please refer to the financial indicators shown below the table. If these assumptions change significantly, we will consider review of our financial targets during the fiscal year.

對於商業環境的假設是，主要國家之間的貿易談判將取得一定進展，全球供應鏈不會受到重大干擾。請參考下表所示的財務指標。如果這些假設發生重大變化，我們將考慮在財政年度內審查我們的財務目標。

The right side shows shareholder returns. We will continue to aim for the dividend payout ratio of approximately 40%, while considering the optimal balance between capital soundness and growth investment, and strive for a sustainable increase in dividends per share based on profit growth. For FY25, the annual dividend forecast is JPY70 per share, an increase of JPY6 from the previous fiscal year. Additionally, we have resolved share repurchase of up to JPY250 billion in the first half of the fiscal year today.

右側顯示股東回報。我們將繼續以40%左右的股息支付率作為目標，同時考慮資本穩健性和成長投資之間的最佳平衡，並努力在利潤成長的基礎上實現每股股息的可持續成長。對於 25 財年，年度股利預測為每股 70 日圓，比上一財年增加 6 日圓。此外，我們今天已決定在本財年上半年回購高達2,500億日圓的股票。

Please turn to page 4 for the impact of the new US trade policy and our medium-term financial targets. As you are aware, the global economy is facing increased uncertainty due to changes in the trade policies of major countries. We have established a cross-functional project team to follow up on the potential negative impact of these changes on various aspects of our business, including the macroeconomy, financial markets, and on our customers.

請翻到第4頁了解新美國貿易政策的影響和我們的中期財務目標。大家知道，當前，受主要國家貿易政策變化影響，全球經濟面臨的不確定性加大。我們已經成立了一個跨職能專案團隊，以跟進這些變化對我們業務各個方面（包括宏觀經濟、金融市場和客戶）的潛在負面影響。

Under these circumstances, it is currently difficult to assess the FY26 business environment and impact on our business performance. Therefore, we have decided to reassess and announce our financial targets for FY26 after thoroughly assessing the environment. However, if the changes in the business environment remains within the current assumptions outlined here, we aim to achieve sustainable profit growth in FY26, exceeding FY25 levels, with net income over JPY2 trillion and ROE based on JPX basis of over 10%.

在這種情況下，目前很難評估 26 財年的商業環境及其對我們業務表現的影響。因此，我們決定在徹底評估環境後重新評估並宣布 2026 財年的財務目標。然而，如果商業環境的變化保持在本文概述的當前假設範圍內，我們的目標是在 26 財年實現可持續的利潤增長，超過 25 財年的水平，淨收入超過 2 兆日元，基於 JPX 基礎的 ROE 超過 10%。

For now, we will focus on the FY25 results, continue to place emphasis on ROE, and leverage our group's comprehensive capabilities and resilient and diverse business portfolio to respond flexibly to the changes in the environment. Our CEO, Mr. Kamezawa, will provide more details at the investor briefing on the 19th.

目前，我們將專注於25財年的業績，繼續重視ROE，並利用集團的綜合能力和具有彈性的多樣化業務組合靈活應對環境的變化。我們的執行長 Kamezawa 先生將在 19 日的投資者說明會上提供更多詳細資訊。

Please proceed to page 5. Despite the current uncertain environment, our policy of increasing ROE over the medium to long term remains unchanged, as shown here. Since we achieved the previous target of 9% to 10% in FY24, we have adopted the JPX definition and set the new target as approximately 12%. This is almost on par with the major financial institutions in Europe and the United States. And after achieving this target, our ultimate goal is to become a global top tier in terms of profitability and corporate value.

請繼續至第 5 頁。儘管當前環境不確定，但我們中長期提高 ROE 的政策保持不變，如下所示。由於我們在 24 財年實現了 9% 至 10% 的先前目標，因此我們採用了 JPX 定義並將新目標設定為約 12%。這幾乎與歐美各大金融機構持平。在實現這個目標之後，我們的最終目標是成為獲利能力和企業價值全球頂尖的企業。

Lastly, page 8. In FY24, we caused concern and inconvenience to our customers and stakeholders due to the business improvement orders related to inappropriate collaboration between banking and securities operations, as well as an incident involving the theft of customer assets from the safe deposit box. We once again sincerely apologize for this.

最後，第 8 頁。24財年，我們因銀行和證券業務之間不當合作相關的業務改進命令，以及涉及保險箱中客戶資產被盜的事件，給客戶和利益相關者帶來了擔憂和不便。對此我們再次表示誠摯的歉意。

In addition to thoroughly implementing measures to prevent recurrence, we will continue to make relentless efforts to enhance governance, striving to restore the trust and confidence of our customers and society. MUFG is committed to empowering a brighter future, even amidst the heightened uncertainty of recent times. We look forward to your continued understanding and support.

除了徹底實施防止再次發生的措施之外，我們將繼續不懈地加強治理，並努力恢復客戶和社會的信任和信心。即使在近期不確定性加劇的情況下，三菱日聯金融集團仍致力於創造更美好的未來。期待您持續給予理解與支持。

This concludes my presentation.

我的演講到此結束。

Let me introduce the first questioner, Mr. Takamiya of Nomura Securities. Please go ahead.

我來介紹第一位提問者，野村證券的高宮先生。請繼續。

I am Takamiya of Nomura Securities. I have one question.

我是野村證券的高宮。我有一個問題。

Please share with us the internal discussions leading up to the decision on the amount of share buyback, the key discussion points, and the message you want to convey as management. The JPY250 billion this time appears to be sizable under the current uncertain environment. The amount of share buyback over the past two years was around JPY400 billion a year. Half of that is JPY200 billion, so it seems like a considerable amount this time given the uncertainty.

請與我們分享在決定股票回購數量之前的內部討論、關鍵討論點以及您作為管理層想要傳達的訊息。此次2500億日圓在目前不確定的環境下顯得數額龐大。過去兩年的股票回購金額每年約為4000億日圓。其中一半是 2,000 億日元，考慮到不確定性，這次的金額似乎相當可觀。

On the other hand, considering that the total payout ratio is within the conventional range of 50% to 60% for the conservative guidance of JPY2 trillion, I think this amount of buyback is reasonable even with a conservative assumption and the irregularities of FX impact, given that your CET1 ratio is above the target range. I would like to ask you about the internal discussions that led to the decision on the amount of share buyback, the points of discussion, and the message that the management wants to convey to stock market participants in deciding this amount of share repurchase at this timing. Thank you.

另一方面，考慮到總派息率在 2 兆日圓保守指導價的 50% 至 60% 的常規範圍內，我認為即使在保守假設和外匯影響不規則的情況下，這一回購金額也是合理的，因為您的 CET1 比率高於目標範圍。我想問一下，在決定股票回購數量時，公司內部進行了哪些討論，討論的要點是什麼，以及管理層在此時決定股票回購數量時希望向股市參與者傳達什麼信息。謝謝。

Thank you very much for the question. First of all, before the trade policy issue arose at the beginning of April, we had said that we would aim for profits attributable to owners of parent of around JPY2 trillion in FY25 and announced that our financial target for the final year of the MTBP is to exceed FY25, although the amount was not quantified. In that sense, the underlying premise was that the amount of buyback should be commensurate with the higher profit.

非常感謝您的提問。首先，在4月初貿易政策問題出現之前，我們曾表示，我們將力爭在25財年實現歸屬於母公司股東的利潤約2萬億日元，並宣布中期預算最後一年的財務目標是超過25財年，儘管沒有量化具體數額。從這個意義上講，其基本前提是回購金額應與更高的利潤相稱。

On the other hand, as the uncertainty in the world increased, we debated internally whether the full year amount should remain unchanged at JPY400 billion or increased in line with profit growth. Since we need to assess and ascertain this uncertainty, we cannot commit to a full-year amount at this time, but have decided to increase the amount to JPY250 billion, up from JPY200 billion, which is JPY400 billion divided by 2. If JPY250 billion can be repurchased in the first and second half of FY25, it would mean that total payout ratio for JPY2 trillion net income is comparable to the previous levels and can also expect to raise EPS by around 2%. So that is why we have decided on JPY250 billion.

另一方面，隨著世界不確定性的增加，我們內部也在爭論全年金額是否應維持在4,000億日圓不變，還是應隨著利潤成長而增加。由於我們需要評估和確定這種不確定性，因此我們目前無法承諾全年金額，但已決定將金額從 2000 億日元增加到 2500 億日元，即 4000 億日元除以 2。如果能在25財年上半年和下半年回購2500億日元，就意味著2萬億日元淨收入的總派息率與之前的水平相當，並且預計將每股收益提高2%左右。這就是我們決定投資 2500 億日圓的原因。

Understood. Thank you very much.

明白了。非常感謝。

Thank you very much. Next, BofA Securities, Nakamura-san, please.

非常感謝。接下來有請美國銀行證券公司的中村先生。

Thank you. I have two questions.

謝謝。我有兩個問題。

First is on how the guidance was issued. The MUFG that I knew would have issued a conservative guidance like the other megabanks, reflecting the impact from the trade policies on the business impact. SMBC says bottom-line impact JPY100 billion and Mizuho JPY110 billion. Of course, you did provide FX and UK average assumptions, but did not provide the impact on financial performance. So why didn't you? What changed from the traditionally conservative MUFG approach? Also, if you were to provide guidance on the business impact, like the other megabanks, such as credit cost and slower loan growth, how much of a downside risk do you think exists? That's my first question.

首先是關於該指南的發布方式。我知道三菱日聯金融集團會像其他大型銀行一樣發布保守的指導意見，反映貿易政策對業務的影響。三井住友銀行表示，底線影響 1,000 億日元，瑞穗銀行則為 1,100 億日元。當然，您確實提供了外匯和英國平均假設，但沒有提供對財務表現的影響。那你為什麼不這麼做呢？與傳統保守的三菱日聯金融集團 (MUFG) 方法相比，有何變化？此外，如果您像其他大型銀行一樣對業務影響提供指導，例如信貸成本和貸款成長放緩，您認為有多大的下行風險？這是我的第一個問題。

And second question, and it's fine if you don't have an answer today, is on the mid to long-term ROE target of 12%. Under what kind of conditions will you achieve this mid to long-term 12% ROE target? For example, interest rate, dollar-yen exchange rate, and how low gains from equity sales will be at that time, and overall timeline and so forth. You may not be able to provide such details now, but I would appreciate some color on this topic.

第二個問題，如果您今天沒有答案也沒關係，是關於中長期 ROE 目標 12% 的。在什麼樣的條件下才能達成這個中長期12%的ROE目標？例如，利率、美元兌日圓匯率、以及當時股票出售的收益有多低、以及整體時間表等等。您現在可能無法提供這樣的細節，但我希望您能對這個主題提供一些詳細的說明。

Thank you very much for the question.

非常感謝您的提問。

Regarding the business impact, frankly, we think that there is possibility of both upside and downside impact. So if the trade policy impact is under the expected environment outlined on page 3, and we have also provided financial indicators for our annual guidance, so we assess that there will be certain level of impact regarding interest rate, FX, and stock price leading to interest income reduction.

對於業務影響，坦白說，我們認為既有上行影響，也有下行影響。因此，如果貿易政策影響在第 3 頁概述的預期環境下，並且我們還為年度指導提供了財務指標，那麼我們評估利率、外匯和股票價格將受到一定程度的影響，從而導致利息收入減少。

However, for the business impact, we drew no conclusions. So in that sense, it is a different approach as what Kamezawa-san was looking for was the most likely and also aggressive plan. So if these assumptions completely change, then we will consider whether the guidance needs to be revised.

然而，對於業務影響，我們尚未得出結論。因此從這個意義上來說，這是一種不同的方法，因為 Kamezawa-san 所尋求的是最有可能也是最積極的計劃。因此，如果這些假設完全改變，那麼我們將考慮是否需要修改指南。

On the mid to long-term target of ROE 12%, we may have mentioned this at the interim results briefing, but we have been discussing at length the mid to long-term ROE target when there is no contribution from the sale of equity holdings. In this discussion, compared to the group of US banks with the very high ROE and PBR, there is a gap in the absolute value of interest rate in our mother markets, while on the other hand, we are more leveraged comparatively. So considering the positive and negative factors, we arrived at 12% as the mid to long-term target level to pursue.

關於中長期ROE目標12%，我們可能在中期業績發布會上提到過，但是我們一直在詳細討論在沒有出售股權貢獻的情況下的中長期ROE目標。這次討論中，我們跟ROE、PBR非常高的那群美國銀行相比，一方面我們的母市場利率絕對值是有差距的，另一方面我們的槓桿率又比較高。所以綜合考慮利弊，我們最終確定12%作為中長期的目標水準。

Now, in order to achieve ROE of 12%, we will need to change our risk appetite, which means that we would probably have to go beyond the current CET1 range of 9.5% to 10.5%, but during this medium-term business plan, we will maintain this 9.5% to 10.5% range. Now, in this beginning of the fiscal year, with the lingering issue of uncertainty, we would like to be above the target range.

現在，為了實現12%的ROE，我們需要改變我們的風險偏好，這意味著我們可能必須超越目前9.5%到10.5%的CET1範圍，但在這個中期經營計畫期間，我們將維持這個9.5%到10.5%的範圍。現在，在財政年度開始之際，由於不確定性問題仍然存在，我們希望能夠高於目標範圍。

Thank you very much. So the management does understand the expectations of the market and have discussed and produced guidance that is aggressive to some extent. So I look forward to the company's performance. Thank you.

非常感謝。因此，管理層確實了解市場的預期，並且已經討論並製定了一定程度上積極的指導。因此我對公司的表現充滿期待。謝謝。

Next, Mizuho Securities, Mr. Matsuno, please.

接下來有請瑞穗證券的松野先生。

This is Matsuno from Mizuho Securities. Thank you very much for today. I have two questions.

我是瑞穗證券的松野。今天非常感謝您。我有兩個問題。

First question is on capital on page 21. Your CET1 ratio was 10.8% at the end of March, which is above the target range. And I think you also assume yen to appreciate. Please explain your view on 10.8% and the FX sensitivity of the current CET1 ratio. This is my first question.

第一個問題是關於第 21 頁的資本。截至 3 月底，您的 CET1 比率為 10.8%，高於目標範圍。我認為您也認為日元會升值。請解釋您對 10.8% 以及當前 CET1 比率的外匯敏感性的看法。這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is about the background behind your decision to increase the credit cost guidance by JPY241.3 billion to JPY350 billion in your targets for FY25. Is this a conservative level taking into account the impact of trade policy negotiations? Could you elaborate on your thinking on the credit cost of JPY350 billion?

我的第二個問題是關於您決定將 2,413 億日圓信貸成本指引提高至 3,500 億日圓（作為 2025 財年的目標）的背景。考慮到貿易政策談判的影響，這個水準是否保守？能否詳細說明一下對3500億日圓信貸成本的看法？

As mentioned earlier, yen was quite weak. It was JPY158 against the dollar at the end of December 2024. But as yen appreciated toward the end of March, CET1 ratio is already being pushed down by about 35 basis points due to the recognition delay of foreign currency translation reserve. Looking at the current dollar-yen rate, this factor is now gone. So this was the biggest impact.

如前所述，日圓相當疲軟。2024年12月底，日圓兌美元匯率為158日圓。但隨著3月底日圓升值，由於外幣折算準備金確認延遲，CET1比率已經下降了約35個基點。從目前的美元兌日圓匯率來看，這個因素已經不存在了。所以這是最大的影響。

So far, one yen depreciation has had the effect of pushing up the CET1 ratio by 1 to 2 basis points. As you have pointed out in the past, we recognize FX impact on CET1 ratio as an issue to be addressed. We started some hedging this month, which we wanted to do in FY23. We believe we can reduce volatility going forward.

到目前為止，日圓貶值一次已經導致CET1比率上升1至2個基點。正如您過去指出的那樣，我們認識到外匯對 CET1 比率的影響是一個需要解決的問題。我們本月開始進行一些對沖，我們希望在 23 財政年度完成。我們相信我們可以減少未來的波動。

To your second question, the average credit costs after the acquisition of Krungsri and Bank Danamon was about JPY320 billion. On the other hand, in FY23, excluding the reversal of large credit costs, the actual amount was less than JPY300 billion. Therefore, we forecasted JPY350 billion taking into account last year's actuals, the past average level, and the reversal of large credit costs and provisions, as well as the impact of trade policy. However, we think it may fluctuate if uncertainties increase and the environment changes significantly.

關於你的第二個問題，收購Krungsri銀行和Bank Danamon銀行後的平均信用成本約為3,200億日圓。另一方面，在23財年，不包括大額信貸成本的沖銷，實際金額不到3,000億日圓。因此，我們預測為3500億日元，同時考慮到去年的實際情況、過去的平均水平、大額信貸成本和撥備的逆轉以及貿易政策的影響。然而，我們認為，如果不確定性增加且環境發生重大變化，它可能會出現波動。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. Next, JPMorgan, Yano-san, please.

謝謝。接下來有請摩根大通矢野先生。

Thank you. This is Yano from JPMorgan. I also have two questions.

謝謝。我是摩根大通的 Yano。我也有兩個問題。

My first question is regarding investment securities, Treasury business. As shown on slide 20, from the end of Q3, you have increased the balance of JGBs over 10 years. And since April, there have been significant increase in interest rates 10 years and above, like 30 years. So how has this impacted Q1 results or FY25 full-year results for Treasury operations? I'd like to know if you have any thoughts regarding negative implications from the rise in long-term interest rates.

我的第一個問題是關於投資證券、財務業務。如投影片 20 所示，從第三季末開始，你們已經在 10 年內增加了日本國債餘額。自4月以來，10年期及以上利率，例如30年期利率，都出現了大幅上漲。那麼這對財務營運第一季業績或 2025 財年全年業績有何影響？我想知道您對長期利率上升的負面影響有何看法。

And my second question, and this is from the media reporting, as your competitor has issued a press release regarding India's Yes Bank, for MUFG, there have been reports on some negotiation with the same Indian company, I presume, a year ago, as well as currently. So I'd like to ask how far the discussions progressed and what prevented the deal from happening. If you could kindly give some color on this topic. Thank you.

我的第二個問題來自媒體報道，正如你們的競爭對手發布了一份關於印度 Yes Bank 的新聞稿，對於三菱日聯金融集團 (MUFG) 來說，有報道稱他們與這家印度公司進行過一些談判，我猜想，一年前和現在都有這樣的談判。所以我想問討論進展如何以及是什麼阻礙了協議的達成。如果您能就這個主題給出一些解釋的話。謝謝。

Thank you very much. For your first question, last fiscal year, we rebalanced our bond portfolio by JPY780 billion and almost completely eliminated our negative carry positions. So this alone boosts our Treasury interest income by JPY100 billion. So that's the first point.

非常感謝。對於您的第一個問題，上個財年，我們重新平衡了債券投資組合 7800 億日元，幾乎完全消除了負利差頭寸。因此，僅此一項就使我們的國庫利息收入增加了1000億日元。這是第一點。

Now, while we do see future rate hikes in the future, and we have been increasing the balance of long-term JGBs, but there is a lack of visibility when it comes to interest rates, so we are taking a very cautious approach in increasing our balance. And at the minimum, I am factoring in the growth in interest income of JPY100 billion from the rebalancing of our bond portfolio.

現在，雖然我們確實看到未來利率會上升，而且我們也一直在增加長期日本國債的餘額，但利率方面缺乏可見性，因此我們在增加餘額方面採取非常謹慎的態度。並且至少，我將透過重新平衡我們的債券投資組合來增加 1,000 億日圓的利息收入。

Now, on your second question, India, while we have made various studies, the local regulations do pose difficulties, and we are not moving ahead with any negotiations at this time.

現在，關於你的第二個問題，印度，雖然我們已經做了各種研究，但當地的法規確實帶來了困難，我們目前不會推進任何談判。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Well, we still have some time left, but there seems to be no further questions. So we would like to close the Q&A session here.

嗯，我們還有一些時間，但似乎沒有其他問題了。我們想在這裡結束問答環節。

Lastly, Togawa-san, please make closing remarks.

最後，請戶川先生致結束語。

Thank you very much for your questions and comments. Today, we talked about the details of the financial results for March '25. But on the 19th, at the investor briefing, our President, Kamezawa, will share more details on his thinking and views on the current environment.

非常感謝您的提問和評論。今天，我們討論了 25 年 3 月財務表現的詳細資訊。但在19日的投資人說明會上，我們的社長龜澤將更詳細地分享他對當前環境的想法和看法。

We look forward to your continued support and understanding. Once again, thank you very much.

我們期待您繼續支持和理解。再次感謝您。

This concludes MUFG online conference on financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025. Thank you very much for your participation.

三菱日聯金融集團 (MUFG) 2025 年 3 月 31 日止財政年度財務表現線上會議至此結束。非常感謝您的參與。

Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.

本記錄中的英文陳述是由現場翻譯人員宣讀的。翻譯由贊助此活動的公司提供。