Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (MUFG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you very much for waiting. We will now begin Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group briefing on the financial highlights for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024. Thank you very much for joining us today. I am [Nakao] from Investor Relations office, Financial Planning, and I will be your moderator today. First, Mr. Jun Togawa, Representative Corporate Executive, Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO, will give a presentation on the financial highlights for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024, for about 15 minutes, and then we will move on to the Q&A session.

非常感謝您的等待。我們現在將開始三菱日聯金融集團介紹截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的財年的財務亮點。我是財務規劃部投資者關係辦公室的 [Nakao]，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。首先，公司代表、高階管理公司執行長兼集團財務長東川淳先生將介紹截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的財年的財務亮點，時長約 15 分鐘，然後我們將繼續討論問答環節。

The entire session is expected to take approximately 15 minutes. Before I begin, I would like to ask for your understanding. The presentation to follow may include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. However, all such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please be aware that actual results may differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements. Now we would like to begin. Mr. Togawa, please begin your presentation.

整個會議預計持續約 15 分鐘。在開始之前，我想請求您的理解。接下來的演示可能包括基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。然而，所有此類陳述都存在風險和不確定性。請注意，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果有重大差異。現在我們想開始。戶川先生，請開始您的演講。

Investors, shareholders and representatives of rating agencies, it is pleasure to meet you. My name is Togawa, and I was appointed Group CFO this April. Thank you for joining this online conference at this late hour. Please refer to the presentation material titled financial highlights under Japanese GAAP for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024. After explaining our financial results for FY '23, I will explain our performance targets and shareholder returns policy for FY '24 and outline our new medium-term business plan starting this fiscal year. I will start with the income statement summary.

各位投資人、股東、評等機構代表，都很高興認識你們。我叫戶川，今年四月被任命為集團財務長。感謝您在這麼晚的時間參加這次線上會議。請參閱標題為截至2024 年3 月31 日的財政年度的日本公認會計準則下的財務亮點的演示材料。回報政策，並概述我們的新政策從本財年開始的中期業務計劃。我將從損益表摘要開始。

Please turn to Page 10. Line 1, gross profits on the left side of the table increased by JPY 229.5 billion year-on-year. Line 2 and below is a breakdown of gross profits. In FY '23, there was a large decrease in net interest income and a large increase in net other operating profits. In addition to the absence of revenue resulting from the sale of MUB, in the treasury business of the global markets, there was a recording of a decrease of gains on investment trusts cancellation of JPY 555.7 billion, included in the prior year for bear funds with hedge purposes and losses on the sale of foreign bonds in net other operating profits or losses and rebalancing of the bond portfolio, resulting in adjustment of accounting items. Excluding these 2 factors, net interest income also increased steadily on a real basis.

請翻至第10頁。第 2 行及以下是毛利的細目。 23財年，淨利息收入大幅下降，而其他營業利潤淨額大幅增加。除了沒有出售 MUB 帶來的收入外，在全球市場的資金業務中，投資信託註銷收益減少了 5,557 億日元，其中包括上一年的熊市基金。淨損益以及債券投資組合的重新平衡，從而導致會計項目的調整。剔除這兩個因素，淨利息收入實際上也穩定成長。

Line 3, net fees and commissions increased approximately JPY 130 billion, mainly due to an increase in fees related to foreign loans and an increase in fee income from the AM/IS business and Wealth Management business bringing steady top line growth. Line 6, G&A expenses were down JPY 19.9 billion year-on-year, despite the effects of inflation and weaker yen, mainly due to a decrease in expenses resulting from the sale of MUB. Line 21, expense ratio improved significantly to 61%, down 3.5 percentage points from the same period last year, largely due to gross profit growth but also due to successful expense control. As a result, Line 7, net operating profit increased JPY 249.4 billion to JPY 1,843.7 billion, a record high, offsetting the impact of the sale of MUB.

第3行，淨費用和佣金增加約1,300億日元，主要是由於與外國貸款相關的費用增加以及AM/IS業務和財富管理業務的費用收入增加帶來了穩定的收入成長。第 6 行，儘管受到通貨膨脹和日圓貶值的影響，G&A 費用仍同比減少 199 億日元，主要是由於出售 MUB 導致費用減少。 21日，費用率大幅改善至61%，較去年同期下降3.5個百分點，主要得益於毛利成長，但也得益於成功的費用控制。由此，7號線的淨利增加了2,494億日元，達到1,8,437億日元，創歷史新高，抵銷了出售MUB的影響。

Total credit cost, Line 8, amounted to JPY 497.9 billion, reflecting the absence of the reversal of reserves in the previous year and an increase in overseas allowances, including the impact of acquisitions and individual company factors. The absence of the JPY 393.9 billion valuation losses on loan sale by MUB in the previous year resulted in JPY 176.9 billion decrease in expenses compared to the same period last year.

第8行信貸成本總額為4979億日元，反映了上一年準備金轉回的情況以及海外備抵的增加，包括收購和個別公司因素的影響。由於沒有消除去年 MUB 出售貸款造成的 3,939 億日圓估值損失，導致費用比去年同期減少 1,769 億日圓。

Equity in earnings of equity method investees, Line 12, is due to the change of closing date in the equity method of accounting for Morgan Stanley. And in FY 2023, equity in earnings increased by JPY 105.9 billion from the same period of the previous year as profits were recorded for 15 months instead of 12 months. The net effect of Morgan Stanley's profit increased due to the change of closing date when applying the equity method of accounting is just under JPY 85 billion since the loss on change in equity was also recorded for 2 quarters in the net extraordinary gains and losses. As a result of the above, profits attributable to owners of parent, Line 17, increased by JPY 374.2 billion year-on-year to JPY 1,490.7 billion, the highest profit in MUFG history. ROE, Line 19, was 8.5% or 8.1% even excluding the profit increase effect of Morgan Stanley's change of closing date, which I explained earlier.

權益法投資對象收益中的權益（第 12 行）是由於摩根士丹利權益法會計截止日期的變動所致。 2023財年，收益權益比去年同期增加了1,059億日元，因為錄得利潤的時間從12個月增加到了15個月。摩根士丹利因採用權益法核算時的截止日期變化而增加的淨利潤略低於850億日元，因為權益變動損失也被記錄在兩個季度的非經常性淨損益中。受此影響，母公司Line 17所有者應占利潤年增3,742億日圓至14,907億日元，創三菱日聯史上最高利潤。即使不包括我之前解釋過的摩根士丹利更改截止日期的利潤增加效應，第 19 行 ROE 也為 8.5% 或 8.1%。

Please go to Page 11. The graph on the lower left show a breakdown of year-on-year changes in net operating profits by business segment. In Customer segments, all business segments steadily increased net operating profit, mainly due to an increase in lending and deposit interest income and fee income. As a result, total net operating profit of Customer segments rose sharply by JPY 470.3 billion. On the other hand, Global Markets posted a decrease in profit due to increase in foreign currency funding costs in treasury business and the significant impact of portfolio rebalancing.

請參閱第11頁。客戶板塊方面，各業務板塊營業淨利穩定成長，主要得益於存貸款利息收入及手續費收入的增加。結果，客戶部門的總淨利潤大幅增加了 4,703 億日圓。另一方面，由於資金業務外幣融資成本增加以及投資組合再平衡的顯著影響，全球市場利潤下降。

Page 12 on the right is a breakdown of changes in net income by business segment. While JCIB was down due to an increase in overseas credit costs and global markets due to the impact of portfolio rebalancing in treasury business, other business segments reported an increase in net income due to higher net operating profit. Page 14 is a balance sheet summary. Loans, second line in the table on the left, increased by approximately JPY 8 trillion from the end of the previous fiscal year. Approximately 70% of this increase is attributable to the increase in overseas loans.

右側第12頁是依業務部門劃分的淨利變動明細。儘管JCIB因資金業務投資組合再平衡的影響導致海外信貸成本和全球市場增加而出現下滑，但其他業務部門因淨利潤增加而實現淨利潤增長。第 14 頁是資產負債表摘要。左表第二行的貸款較上一財年末增加了約 8 兆日圓。其中約70%的成長歸因於海外貸款的增加。

Line 6, which is generally due to the impact of yen depreciation. Deposits from Line 12 and below increased approximately JPY 10 trillion from the end of the previous fiscal year, of which overseas deposit increased JPY 7.1 trillion, again, mainly due to the impact of foreign exchange. Next is Page 15, it shows the status of domestic loans. The graph on the lower right shows the domestic corporate lending spreads, the red line, the large cooperations continues to improve and the orange line for SMEs indicates a gradual improvement.

6號線，這一般是由於日圓貶值的影響。 12線及以下存款較上財年末增加約10兆日元，其中境外存款再次增加7.1兆日元，主要是受外匯影響。接下來是第15頁，它顯示了國內貸款的狀況。右下圖為國內企業貸款利差，紅線表示大型合作持續改善，橙線表示中小企業逐步改善。

The next page is Page 16, and it shows the status of the overseas loans. The graph on the lower right shows the overseas lending spreads. As for domestic, we have maintained an improving trend through our efforts to improve profitability. Please turn to Page 17, this is the status of loan assets. Nonperforming loans, the bar graph on the left, increased due in part to the factors related to individual overseas companies, resulting in a slight increase of NPL ratio, but remains at a low level.

下一頁是第16頁，顯示的是海外貸款的情況。右下圖顯示了海外貸款利差。國內方面，我們透過努力提升獲利能力，維持了向好的態勢。請翻到第17頁，這是貸款資產的狀況。左邊長條圖不良貸款增加，部分是受個別海外企業相關因素影響，導致不良貸款率略有上升，但仍處於較低水準。

Please turn to Page 18 on the status of securities, including equities and government bonds. Unrealized gains and losses are shown in the upper left table, with the increase in unrealized gains on domestic equity securities, thanks to rising stock prices and improvement in unrealized gains and losses on foreign bonds following the sale of U.S. treasury bonds and U.S. mortgage bonds, unrealized gains for available-for-sale securities totaled JPY 2.7 trillion. Line 8, unrealized losses on foreign bonds is approximately JPY 1 trillion, but as shown below the upper right graph, unrealized losses in real terms, taking into account unrealized gains, reflecting hedging positions was approximately JPY 0.5 trillion. So although overseas interest rates rose and remained high, we were able to firmly control and improve the unrealized gains and losses.

請參閱第 18 頁以了解證券（包括股票和政府債券）的狀況。左上表顯示了未實現損益，其中國內股本證券的未實現損益有所增加，這得益於股價上漲以及出售美國國債和美國抵押債券後外國債券未實現損益的改善，可供出售證券的未實現收益總計2.7 兆日圓。第8行，外國債券的未實現損失約為1兆日圓，但如右上圖所示，考慮到未實現收益，反映對沖頭寸的實際未實現損失約為0.5兆日圓。因此，儘管海外利率上升並居高不下，但我們能夠牢牢控制和改善未實現損益。

The selling amount of equity holdings on the lower right shows that in FY '23, we sold JPY 216 billion on an acquisition cost basis. As a result, we reached JPY 539 billion, exceeding the 3-year cumulative sales target of JPY 500 billion in the previous MTBP. In the new MTBP, the target is JPY 350 billion, with the aim of reducing the ratio of market value, including deemed shareholdings to consolidated net assets to less than 20% by the end of the next MTBP period.

右下的股權出售金額顯示，23 財年，我們以收購成本為基礎出售了 2,160 億日圓。結果，我們達到了 5,390 億日元，超過了上一個 MTBP 的 3 年累計銷售目標 5,000 億日元。新的MTBP的目標是3500億日元，目的是在下一個MTBP期末將包括視同持股在內的市值與合併淨資產的比例降低至20%以下。

Page 19 shows our capital adequacy. CET1 ratio on finalized and fully implemented Basel III basis, excluding net unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities is 10.1%, which is around the middle of the new MTBP target range. Next, let me explain our FY '24 financial targets and shareholder returns. Please go back to Page 9. First, on the left, our target profits attributable to owners of parent is JPY 1.5 trillion for FY '24. In FY '24, we expect the yen to strengthen year-on-year and will offset the negative impact on our profit. In the absence of the FY '23 positive impact of the change in the equity method accounting date for Morgan Stanley, driven by an increase in NOP.

第 19 頁顯示了我們的資本適足率。在最終確定和全面實施的巴塞爾協議 III 基礎上（不包括可供出售證券的未實現淨收益），CET1 比率為 10.1%，約為新 MTBP 目標範圍的中間值。接下來，讓我解釋一下我們 24 財年的財務目標和股東回報。請返回第 9 頁。 24 財年，我們預期日圓將年比走強，抵銷對我們利潤的負面影響。由於 NOP 增加，摩根士丹利權益法會計日期的變化並未對 23 財年產生正面影響。

Next, shareholder returns, on the right. In the new MTBP, dividend payout ratio will remain at around 40%, and the basic policy is to increase dividend per share steadily and sustainably through profit growth, taking into account the optimal balance between capital soundness and growth investment. On that basis, FY '24, dividend per common stock forecast is set at JPY 50, an increase of JPY 9 for 2 consecutive years. In addition, repurchase of our own shares up to JPY 100 billion was resolved today. Regarding shareholder returns, the current basic policy was originally formulated during my 3 years as Head of the Financial Planning division from 2016. So I hope you will understand that the basic policy remains unchanged.

接下來是股東回報（右側）。新中期BP中，股息支付率將維持在40%左右，基本政策是透過獲利成長穩定、持續地增加每股股息，兼顧資本穩健性與成長性投資的最佳平衡。在此基礎上，24財年每股普通股股利預測定為50日元，連續兩年增加9日圓。此外，今天也解決了最多1000億日圓的自有股票回購事宜。關於股東回報，目前的基本政策是我從2016年起擔任財務規劃部門主管的3年期間制定的。

Finally, on the new MTBP, please go back to Page 5. Under the previous MTBP, which was positioned as 3 years of challenge and transformation, we focused on improving profitability and creating resilient business model. We sold MUB while making an approximately JPY 700 billion strategic investment for future growth. The new MTBP is positioned as 3 years to pursue and produce growth, taking the opportunity offered by the recent major changes in the social and economic structure and environment. The 3 pillars supporting this concept are: Expand and refine growth strategies; drive social and environmental progress; and accelerating transformation and innovation with a financial target of around 9% ROE in the final year.

最後，關於新的MTBP，請回到第5頁。我們出售了 MUB，同時為未來的成長進行了約 7,000 億日圓的策略性投資。新的中期計畫定位為以近期社會經濟結構和環境發生重大變化為契機，尋求成長、創造成長。支持這概念的三大支柱是： 擴大並改善成長策略；推動社會和環境進步；加速轉型創新，最終年度財務目標ROE達到9%左右。

From Page 6, let me explain the 3 pillars of the new MTBP. In the first pillar, expand and refine growth strategies, MUFG's strategy in the new MTBP was examined on Products x Channels quadrants and 7 growth strategies to capture growth were formulated. We aim to achieve growth through a more resilient business model, which includes improving the profitability of our balance sheet based on changes in the interest rate environment as well as broader customer touch point through new products and services and new channels. Focusing on these strategies, we set a target of increasing NOP by approximately JPY 500 billion over 3 years, targeting over JPY 2.1 trillion for FY '26, an increase of 30% compared to FY '23.

從第 6 頁開始，讓我解釋一下新 MTBP 的 3 個支柱。在第一個支柱中，擴大和完善成長策略，三菱日聯金融集團在新的MTBP中的策略在產品x通路象限上進行了審查，並製定了7項成長策略來捕捉成長。我們的目標是透過更具彈性的業務模式實現成長，其中包括根據利率環境的變化提高資產負債表的獲利能力，以及透過新產品、服務和新管道擴大客戶接觸點。圍繞著這些策略，我們設定了在 3 年內將 NOP 增加約 5,000 億日圓的目標，26 財年的目標是超過 2.1 兆日元，與 23 財年相比增長 30%。

Please turn to Page 7. Left side is an overview of the second pillar, drive social and environmental progress. We have been working to contribute to the resolution of social issues over the years. But in the new MTBP, we are taking it to the next level and focusing on the implementation of initiatives and materialization of results with a greater awareness of the societal impact. We selected 10 priority issues based on the 3 axes of sustainable society, vibrant society and resilient society and set specific targets as KPIs, which we will promote in tandem with our growth strategy.

請翻到第7頁。多年來，我們一直致力於為解決社會問題做出貢獻。但在新的中期戰略計劃中，我們將其提升到一個新的水平，重點關注舉措的實施和成果的實現，同時更加意識到社會影響。我們根據永續發展社會、充滿活力的社會和有復原力的社會這三個軸選擇了10個優先議題，並設定了具體目標作為KPI，我們將與我們的成長策略結合起來推動。

Right side shows the third pillar, accelerating transformation and innovation. In the previous MTBP, we fostered the mindset of taking on new challenges among our employees through the initiatives listed here. In the new MTBP, we will keep the existing initiatives while further strengthening our corporate culture, human resources, systems, AI and other management foundations, which form the basis for growth in line with our basic policy of 3 years to pursue and produce growth.

右側為第三支柱，加速轉型創新。在上一個MTBP中，我們透過這裡列出的舉措，培養了員工迎接新挑戰的心態。在新的中期BP中，我們將在保留現有措施的同時，進一步強化企業文化、人力資源、系統、人工智慧等管理基礎，為我們3年追求成長和創造成長的基本方針奠定成長的基礎。

Please turn to Page 8. Let me explain the financial targets of the new MTBP based on these strategies. In the new MTBP, we will continue our ROE-focused management, aiming for ROE target of around 9%. In addition, to improve the transparency of our capital management, our CET1 ratio target range is now 9.5% to 10.5%. The 3 drivers for achieving the ROE target in the previous MTBP, profits, expenses and risk-weighted assets, remain unchanged in the new MTBP. In profits, the first driver, we aim to achieve NOP of over JPY 2.1 trillion and net profits of over JPY 1.6 trillion in FY '26.

請翻到第8頁。在新的中期計畫中，我們將繼續以ROE為核心的管理，力求ROE目標達到9%左右。此外，為了提高我們資本管理的透明度，我們的CET1比率目標範圍現在為9.5%至10.5%。上一個MTBP中實現ROE目標的3個驅動因素：利潤、費用和風險加權資產，在新的MTBP中保持不變。在第一驅動力利潤方面，我們的目標是在 26 財年實現超過 2.1 兆日圓的 NOP 和超過 1.6 兆日圓的淨利。

In expenses, the second driver, we will maintain disciplined management and prioritize our operations to aim for expense ratio of around 60% in FY '26. In RWA, the third driver, we are replacing low profitability RWA with high profitability RWA. By operating our business with these 3 drivers in mind, we will achieve ROE of around 9% in the new MTBP and take steady steps toward our mid- to long-term target of 9% to 10% ROE. That concludes my explanation.

在第二個驅動力費用方面，我們將保持嚴格的管理並優先考慮我們的運營，以期在 26 財年將費用率控制在 60% 左右。在第三個驅動因素 RWA 中，我們正在用高獲利能力 RWA 取代低獲利能力 RWA。透過牢記這三個驅動力來經營我們的業務，我們將在新的中期計劃中實現 9% 左右的 ROE，並朝著 9% 至 10% ROE 的中長期目標穩步邁進。我的解釋到此結束。

Thank you very much, Mr. Togawa. We will now take questions. (Operator Instructions) Now we'd like to take the first question. Mr. Takamiya, please.

非常感謝您，戶川先生。我們現在將接受提問。 （操作員說明） 現在我們想回答第一個問題。高宮先生，有請。

This is Takamiya from Nomura Securities. I have 2 questions. My first question is on the profits attributable to owners of parent. What were your thoughts or emotions behind the target of JPY 1.5 trillion. Where my question is coming from is, this JPY 1.5 trillion is an ambitious target, slightly higher than the current market consensus. Banks usually come up with a conservative target at the beginning of the fiscal year. And the results of the fiscal year just ended was aided by a tailwind. And yet you are still looking for an upside in FY '24. Please share the intention behind this ambitious target.

我是野村證券的高宮。我有 2 個問題。我的第一個問題是關於歸屬於母公司所有者的利潤。您對1.5兆日圓目標背後的想法或情緒是什麼？我的問題是，這個1.5兆日圓是一個雄心勃勃的目標，略高於目前的市場共識。銀行通常會在財政年度開始時提出保守的目標。剛結束的財政年度的表現得益於順風車。然而，您仍在尋找 24 財年的上行空間。請分享這個雄心勃勃的目標背後的意圖。

And my second question is on JPY 100 billion share repurchase that was just announced. It gives a setback of your shareholder returns policy. Just looking at the numbers or the total payout ratio, it is a decline from the previous fiscal year. However, looking at the target CET1 ratio, excluding the unrealized gain, it is right at the middle of the range. So as capital is accumulated with profit growth going forward, it may lead to better visibility of achieving the targets. And if so, will there be a possibility that an additional shareholder returns be considered? I'm not asking you to state whether you'll be conducting additional returns going forward here today, but with this JPY 100 billion may be considered as a setback from the shareholders' returns policy of management with focus on ROE.

我的第二個問題是關於剛剛宣布的1000億日圓股票回購。它會為你的股東回報政策帶來挫折。僅從數字或總派息率來看，與上一財年相比有所下降。然而，從目標 CET1 比率來看，除去未實現的收益，它正好位於該範圍的中間。因此，隨著資本的累積和未來利潤的成長，可能會帶來實現目標的更好可見度。如果是這樣，是否有可能考慮額外的股東回報？我並不是要求您今天在這裡說明是否會進行額外的回報，但是這 1000 億日元可能會被視為管理層以 ROE 為重點的股東回報政策的挫折。

Thank you very much for your questions. First, on the assumptions of the FY 2024 plan. As for the exchange rates, the plan is based on the assumption of JPY 140 to the U.S. dollar. And as for the domestic policy interest rate, we assume that 0.1% will be maintained throughout this fiscal year. With these assumptions, we have set the target of JPY 1.5 trillion. The change in closing date of Morgan Stanley will come to an impact of JPY 84 billion to the final profit, but with this being absent, it will bring a negative impact. The impact of foreign exchange will result in negative JPY 56 billion from the previous fiscal year and the JPY 84 billion related to Morgan Stanley, I mentioned earlier, will be offset by increase in NOP. There will also be impact of change of closing date for Krungsri as well, lifting the numbers. But basically, those will be offset with NOP, and that is a plan we have formulated.

非常感謝您的提問。首先，關於2024財年計畫的假設。至於匯率，該計劃是基於日圓兌換1美元的假設。至於國內政策利率，我們假設本財年維持0.1%。基於這些假設，我們設定了1.5兆日圓的目標。摩根士丹利收盤日期的變更將對最終利潤產生840億日圓的影響，但如果不存在這一點，則會帶來負面影響。外匯的影響將導致上一財年出現負560億日元，而我之前提到的與摩根士丹利相關的840億日元將被NOP的增加所抵銷。 Krungsri 截止日期的變化也會產生影響，從而增加數字。但基本上，這些將透過 NOP 來抵消，這是我們制定的計劃。

Actually, we had heated discussion whether to go with JPY 1.5 trillion or not. But under Group CEO, Kamezawa's leadership, the decision was made to go with JPY 1.5 trillion as a target. It will be dependent on the timing of the change in the policy interest rate. But when the interest rate is raised, there will be a plus alpha effect to be considered. And although it will be limited to a small amount in FY '24, this is considered. As for the meaning behind JPY 100 billion of share repurchase, our aim is to somehow reach payout ratio of 40%. And with 2 consecutive years of raising the dividend up by JPY 9, excluding the currency profit impact of JPY 20 billion in FY 2024, we have almost just reached this 40%.

實際上，我們對於是否選擇1.5兆日圓進行了激烈的討論。但在集團執行長龜澤的領導下，決定以 1.5 兆日圓為目標。這將取決於政策利率變化的時間。但當利率提高時，就會有一個正阿爾法效應需要考慮。儘管在 24 財年將限制在少量，但這是值得考慮的。至於1000億日圓回購股份背後的意義，我們的目標是想辦法達到40%的股利支付率。隨著連續兩年將股利提高9日圓，剔除2024財年200億日圓的貨幣利潤影響，我們幾乎剛好達到40%。

As for the FY 2023 share buyback, JPY 400 billion is mainly coming from capital adjustment from the release of capital related to the sale of MUB. Therefore, if we are to conduct returns at the beginning of the fiscal year, it will be set at JPY 100 billion. And if we see steady progress going forward or if the yen interest rate changes, bringing us confidence that we will be able to achieve the target, then we will consider whether to conduct additional share buyback in conjunction with investment into growth after the midterm. By the way, thank you for recognizing this as an ambitious target. I hope that answers your question.

至於2023財年的股票回購，4,000億日圓主要來自與出售MUB相關的資本釋放所進行的資本調整。因此，如果在年初進行申報，則定為1000億日元。如果我們看到未來穩步進展，或者日圓利率發生變化，讓我們對實現目標充滿信心，那麼我們將考慮是否在中期後結合成長投資進行額外的股票回購。順便說一句，感謝您認識到這是一個雄心勃勃的目標。我希望這能回答你的問題。

Next, Mr. Nakamura, please.

下面有請中村先生。

Yes, this is Nakamura from BofA Securities. I have 2 questions. First, on CET1 ratio. There is an approximately 50 basis point decline quarter-on-quarter compared to 10.6% in the third quarter. What were the factors behind this decline of 50 basis points as it was quite a sharp decline? The range has widened to between 9.5% to 10.5%. But is there any intention behind this that you want to maintain it around 10%? I would like to have your confirmation.

是的，我是美國銀行證券公司的中村。我有 2 個問題。首先，關於CET1比例。與第三季的 10.6% 相比，季減約 50 個基點。這次降幅如此之大，50個基點的下降，到底是什麼因素造成的呢？該範圍已擴大至 9.5% 至 10.5%。但這背後是否有想要維持在10%左右的意圖？我想得到你的確認。

Second question is on reduction of equity holdings. I do understand well that your group has been working on it proactively, but the target will decline from JPY 500 billion to JPY 350 billion. What is the background factor or logic behind this deceleration when we are seeing acceleration in general? Is there any upside factors with effort you'll be able to achieve this? Please share.

第二個問題是關於減持股權的問題。我很理解你們的團隊一直在積極努力，但目標將從5000億日圓下降到3500億日圓。當我們普遍看到加速時，這種減速背後的背景因素或邏輯是什麼？透過努力，您能夠實現這一目標是否有任何積極因素？請分享。

Thank you very much for your question. First, on the CET1 ratio compared to the third quarter, there are 2 main factors. First, the accumulation of profit in the fourth quarter. We worked on improving the book value. And as you can tell by looking at the P&L, JPY 230 billion of credit cost is recorded in the fourth quarter. So retained earnings or capital accumulation was quite small. And the second factor is purely technical in nature.

非常感謝您的提問。首先，就CET1比率與第三季相比，有兩個主要因素。一是第四季利潤累積。我們致力於提高帳面價值。從損益表可以看出，第四季的信貸成本為 2,300 億日圓。因此，留存收益或資本累積相當小。第二個因素本質上是純粹的技術因子。

The foreign currency translation reserve related to change in closing dates, we adopt the currency rate at the end of December and for others, the rate at the end of March, resulting in gain that was more than expected by the Street. We had expected right around this amount at the end of the fiscal year. And as for the target range, I understand that there was quite a debate over last year. So in order to increase transparency, we set the target between 9.5% to 10.5%, but our current thinking is to set the middle line at 10% with 20 to 30 basis points leeway on either side.

外幣折算準備金與截止日期的變動有關，我們採用12月底的匯率，其他則採用3月底的匯率，導致收益超出華爾街預期。我們預計本財年末的金額約為這個數字。至於目標範圍，據我所知，去年有相當大的爭論。所以為了增加透明度，我們把目標定在9.5%到10.5%之間，但我們目前的想法是把中間線定在10%，兩邊有20到30個基點的空間。

And as for your question on equity holdings, it is very MUFG in that. With new MTBP, it is formulated bottom up. And as we see advances in the sales negotiation, it is the fact that we are left with the bedrock brands. And if we accumulate them, what we can commit to is JPY 350 billion. However, having said that, looking at the moves of casualty insurance industry or the activists with operating companies, we can expect a further headway.

至於你關於股權持有的問題，這與三菱日聯金融集團非常相關。新的 MTBP 是自下而上製定的。當我們看到銷售談判取得進展時，事實是我們只剩下了基石品牌。如果我們累積起來，我們可以承諾的金額是3500億日元。然而，話雖如此，看看傷亡保險業或營運公司積極分子的舉動，我們可以期待進一步的進展。

But as for the start of the new MTBP, we will commit to JPY 350 billion as outlined in the plan. And as stated in the financial results highlights, during the next MTBP, the market value of equity holdings and deemed shares held will be kept within 20% of net assets, and that will be our target. And with the pace that we are achieving, we will be able to keep to the target in the next MTBP period. This is the thinking behind the plan of JPY 350 billion.

但至於新的中期BP的開始，我們將承諾計劃中概述的3500億日元。如同財務績效亮點所述，在下一個MTBP期間，持有的股權和視同持有的股份的市值將保持在淨資產的20%以內，這將是我們的目標。按照我們正在實現的速度，我們將能夠在下一個 MTBP 期間保持目標。這就是3500億日圓計畫背後的想法。

So going back to the first question. Listening to what you have just said, even so the decline was quite sizable, and, I believe, you said there were 3 factors involved. The foreign currency translation reserve recognition and no accumulation of profit, which we had not expected to start with, is there any other factors involved, any deduction items involved?

那麼回到第一個問題。聽你剛才說的，但是下降幅度還是比較大的，我相信你說有3個因素。確認外幣折算準備金，沒有累計利潤，這是我們始料未及的，是否還涉及到其他因素，涉及哪些扣除項目？

Well, profit of just less than JPY 0.2 trillion accumulated in the fourth quarter, a dividend of minus JPY 0.2 trillion and share buyback of minus JPY 0.2 billion, with retained earnings in the negative and goodwill of AlbaCore and Mandala, minus JPY 0.14 trillion. And CapEx of Morgan Stanley related to foreign exchange and MS internal reserves and smaller than market expectation of the foreign currency translation reserves, those led to decrease in the denominator. And maybe it was smaller than what had expected by the Street. I believe those are the factors involved.

那麼，第四季累計利潤略低於0.2兆日圓，股利為負0.2兆日圓，股票回購為負2億日元，保留盈餘為負，AlbaCore和Mandala的商譽為負0.14萬億日圓。而摩根士丹利與外匯和MS內部準備金相關的資本支出以及外幣折算準備金小於市場預期，導致分母下降。也許這個數字比華爾街的預期還要小。我相信這些都是涉及的因素。

Understood. So MS and double gearing are included. Now I understand.

明白了。因此 MS 和雙齒輪都包括在內。現在我明白了。

So we will take the next questioner, Matsuno-san, please.

那我們將請下一位提問者松野先生。

This is Matsuno from Mizuho Securities. I have 2 questions. First is on capital policy. Am I correct in understanding that the shareholder return policy in the new MTBP remains unchanged from the previous MTBP?

我是瑞穗證券的松野。我有 2 個問題。首先是資本政策。我對新MTBP中的股東回報政策與先前的MTBP保持不變的理解是否正確？

You are right, there is no change. Previously, we said we aim for a dividend payout ratio of 40%. And this time, we are saying maintain approximately 40%. In that sense, we will continue with it, and that is the only change.

你是對的，沒有任何改變。此前，我們表示我們的目標是40%的股利支付率。這次，我們說保持在 40% 左右。從這個意義上說，我們將繼續下去，這是唯一的改變。

Understood. My next question is on the exchange rate sensitivity on CET1 ratio. Please also explain whether this will result in a decrease in foreign currency translation reserve and the amount of share buybacks since the yen was considerably strong in your FX assumption in the final year of the previous MTBP.

明白了。我的下一個問題是關於 CET1 比率的匯率敏感度。另請解釋這是否會導致外幣折算準備金和股票回購金額減少，因為在您上一中期BP最後一年的外匯假設中，日圓相當堅挺。

Yes, JPY 1 depreciation increases or appreciation decreases the CET1 ratio by approximately 2 basis points. So JPY 1 appreciation is 2 basis points.

是的，1 日圓貶值或升值會使 CET1 比率降低約 2 個基點。所以1日元升值2個基點。

Understood. As the exchange rate assumption for the final year of the new MTBP is set between JPY 125 and JPY 130, will the decrease in numerator foreign currency translation reserve due to strong yen pushed down CET1 ratio?

明白了。由於新MTBP最後一年的匯率假設設定在125日圓至130日圓之間，日圓強勢導致分子外幣折算準備金減少是否會壓低CET1比率？

That is the case in the plan up to FY '26.

截至 26 財年的計劃就是這種情況。

Understood. So you are saying that if the yen weakens, capital surplus will increase?

明白了。那麼您的意思是，如果日圓貶值，資本盈餘就會增加？

Yes. But our shareholder return policy will not change during the MTBP period as a result of foreign exchange impact. Under the current FX assumptions, we will continue to return profits to shareholders based on the same disciplined capital management as in the past.

是的。但我們的股東回報政策在MTBP期間不會因外匯影響而改變。在目前的外匯假設下，我們將繼續根據與過去相同的嚴格資本管理向股東返還利潤。

I understand. My next question is on the breakdown of NOP in the new MTBP, which is mentioned on Page 6, to reach JPY 2.1 trillion, up by JPY 500 billion. Could you give us a bit more color on how this is divided between the top line and expenses?

我明白。我的下一個問題是關於新MTBP中NOP的細目，第6頁提到，達到2.1兆日元，增加了5000億日元。您能給我們更多關於如何在營收和支出之間劃分的資訊嗎？

If we go by the planned rate mentioned earlier, the net increase of JPY 500 billion in NOP is based on the assumption that gross profit increase by JPY 1 trillion and expenses increase by JPY 500 billion. Does this answer your question?

如果按照前面提到的計劃率計算，NOP淨增加5000億日元是基於毛利潤增加1萬億日元、費用增加5000億日元的假設。這回答了你的問題了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Next questioner. Mr. Yano, please go ahead.

下一個提問者。矢野先生，請繼續。

This is Yano from JPMorgan Securities. I have 2 questions. The first is on CET1 ratio, and I'm sorry to be persistent, but I want to ask you in more detail about the technical factors you mentioned in your response to Mr. Nakamura earlier. Am I correct in understanding that the technical impact of the temporary decrease is not necessarily large, but that it is a structural decrease to 10.1%?

我是摩根大通證券的矢野。我有 2 個問題。第一個是關於CET1比率，很抱歉一直堅持，但我想更詳細地詢問您之前在回復中村先生時提到的技術因素。我的理解是否正確，即暫時下降的技術影響不一定很大，而是結構性下降至10.1%？

Also, I am sorry to quote the media coverage, but there is a potential strategic investment in India. And if we assume that the yen will strengthen in the future, you said that CET1 ratio will be around 10%. But I think it will fall below 10%. Has your internal view on capital buffer changed over time? Is CET1 ratio down to 10.1% from structural reasons? And after a while, it will go back up again in the next quarter or not? This is my first question.

另外，我很抱歉引用媒體報道，但印度有潛在的戰略投資。如果我們假設未來日圓會走強，您說CET1比率將在10%左右。但我認為會跌破10%。隨著時間的推移，您對資本緩衝的內部看法是否改變了？ CET1比例下降至10.1%是否為結構性原因？再過一段時間，下個季度會不會再回升？這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is simple. You explained on Page 17 that credit costs are rising, but not that high, but it is indeed rising. I would appreciate it if you could comment on the credit situation by category, for example, domestic, corporate, retail, et cetera.

我的第二個問題很簡單。您在第17頁解釋說，信貸成本正在上升，但沒有那麼高，但確實在上升。如果您能按類別（例如國內、企業、零售等）對信用狀況發表評論，我將不勝感激。

Regarding CET1 ratio and the technical factor, we intend to operate under the assumption that the CET1 ratio could go below 10% due to the impact of the recognition delay in the foreign currency translation reserve, as mentioned earlier. Does this answer your question?

關於CET1比率和技術因素，如前所述，由於外幣折算儲備確認延遲的影響，我們打算在CET1比率可能低於10%的假設下進行操作。這回答了你的問題了嗎？

Understood. In terms of the recognition delay in foreign currency translation reserve, how big will it be in terms of basis points?

明白了。就外幣折算儲備的確認延遲而言，以基點計算會有多大？

It depends on your assumption, but assuming that there were no such impacts, the difference in the foreign currency translation reserve would be around JPY 0.2 trillion. So the gap from your assumption could have been around 20 basis points.

這取決於你的假設，但假設沒有這樣的影響，外幣折算準備金的差異將在 0.2 兆日圓左右。因此，與您的假設的差距可能約為 20 個基點。

To your second question, credit costs have risen in the Americas, as you can see, increasing by about JPY 200 billion, but it is due to some individual companies. We do not expect it to increase at the same pace going forward. As for potential areas, we expect an annual increase of around JPY 20 billion to JPY 30 billion due to the business expansion of 2 consumer finance companies in Japan and the retail business in Asia. This will be accompanied by a strong top line growth. So this is our assumption for credit costs. We are assuming credit costs of JPY 400 billion for FY '24, including approximately JPY 50 billion due to change in financial results closing date for Krungsri.

關於你的第二個問題，正如你所看到的，美洲的信貸成本上升了約2000億日元，但這是由個別公司造成的。我們預計未來它不會以同樣的速度成長。至於潛在領域，由於日本兩家消費金融公司的業務擴張以及亞洲的零售業務，我們預計每年將增加約200億日圓至300億日圓。這將伴隨著強勁的收入成長。這就是我們對信貸成本的假設。我們假設 24 財年的信貸成本為 4,000 億日元，其中包括因 Krungsri 財務表現截止日期變更而產生的約 500 億日圓。

We have a questioner. Ms. Kuroda, please.

我們有一個提問者。有請黑田女士。

I have one question. Is the NOP target of over JPY 2.1 trillion for FY '26 achievable through organic growth?

我有一個問題。 26 財年 NOP 超過 2.1 兆日圓的目標是否可以透過有機成長實現？

If you could look at the bar chart showing JPY 340 billion growth in NOP, you can see that the growth is particularly strong in -- for strengthened APAC business and platform resilience. This is inorganic as it includes the impact of the deals that are already announced and will be completed in the future.

如果您查看顯示 NOP 成長 3,400 億日圓的長條圖，您會發現該成長尤其強勁，因為亞太地區業務和平台的彈性得到了加強。這是無機的，因為它包括已經宣布的和未來將完成的交易的影響。

But they are already in the group at the moment, right?

但他們現在已經在組裡了吧？

Yes, you're right. MUFG Group will increase NOP in an integrated manner.

你是對的。三菱日聯集團將整體增加NOP。

The next questioner, Mr. Matsuda.

下一位提問者是松田先生。

This is Matsuda from Daiwa Securities. I have 2 questions. First, regarding the results for FY '23, you finished the year far exceeding the plan, but I think you could have achieved 7.5% ROE with lower profits. While profits were generated, unrealized losses on foreign bonds still seems to exist. Was there a little incentive to cut losses? That is my first question.

我是大和證券的松田。我有 2 個問題。首先，關於 23 財年的業績，你們今年的業績遠遠超出了計劃，但我認為你們本可以以較低的利潤實現 7.5% 的 ROE。雖然產生了利潤，但外國債券的未實現損失似乎仍然存在。有沒有一點減少損失的動力？這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is on the assumptions for the new MTBP. I think profits of over JPY 1.6 trillion is calculated by backcasting from 9% ROE. Do you have any assumptions or targets for the total payout ratio?

我的第二個問題是關於新的 MTBP 的假設。我認為超過1.6兆日圓的利潤是根據9%的ROE進行反推計算的。您對總支付率有什麼假設或目標嗎？

As to whether we could have cut losses a little more in FY '23, we have to admit that there was an upside to our estimates. And we faced some uncontrollable factors when we changed the financial results closing date. And large credit costs were recorded in Q4. Therefore, this level of portfolio rebalance was considered appropriate in FY '23.

至於我們是否可以在 23 財年進一步減少損失，我們必須承認我們的估計有上行空間。當我們更改財務表現截止日期時，我們面臨一些不可控的因素。第四季錄得巨額信貸成本。因此，這種水準的投資組合再平衡被認為在 23 財年是適當的。

Regarding the total payout ratio in the new MTBP, the NOP plan was developed through a bottom-up process. MTBP plans for capital management with 9% ROE target, but we have not set the target for a total payout ratio. The policy is to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 40% and total return and share buybacks will be considered from the perspective of growth investment and capital soundness to achieve 9% ROE.

關於新MTBP中的總支付率，NOP計劃是透過自下而上的過程製定的。 MTBP計畫進行資本管理，ROE目標為9%，但我們尚未設定總派息率目標。政策是維持40%左右的股息支付率，並從成長投資和資本穩健的角度考慮總回報和股票回購，以實現9%的ROE。

Thank you very much for your wide-ranging questions and valuable comments today. I only explained FY '23 results and the outline of the new MTBP today, and Kamezawa will explain the details of the new MTBP, including his thoughts at the briefing on the 17th. I look forward to your participation. Like my predecessor, Yonehana, I will continue to focus on our dialogue with shareholders and investors while working on financial and capital management to continue increasing shareholder value. I'd like to ask you for your continued understanding and further support. Thank you very much for joining us today.

非常感謝您今天提出的廣泛問題和寶貴意見。我今天只解釋了FY '23的結果和新MTBP的概要，龜澤將在17日的簡報會上解釋新MTBP的細節，包括他的想法。我期待您的參與。與我的前任米花一樣，我將繼續專注於與股東和投資者的對話，同時致力於財務和資本管理，以繼續提高股東價值。希望您繼續給予理解和支持。非常感謝您今天加入我們。

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

[本筆錄中的英語陳述是由現場通話中的口譯員說出的。