Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (MUFG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for waiting. We will now begin the online conference call on financial highlights for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2023, of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. I am Takahashi from Investor Relations Office, Financial Planning division and will serve as the moderator today. Tetsuya Yonehana, Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO, will give a 15-minute presentation on the financial highlights followed by a Q&A session. The entire session is scheduled to be about 50 minutes.

謝謝您的等待。我們現在將開始召開關於三菱日聯金融集團截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的財年財務要點的線上電話會議。我是財務規劃部投資者關係辦公室的高橋，擔任今天的主持人。高階管理公司執行長兼集團財務長 Tetsuya Yonehana 將就財務亮點進行 15 分鐘的演講，隨後進行問答環節。整個會議預計時間約50分鐘。

Before we begin, let me read the disclaimer. In this presentation, we may state forward-looking statements based on current expectations, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please be aware that actual results may differ materially from those forecasts.

在我們開始之前，讓我先閱讀免責聲明。在本簡報中，我們可能會根據當前預期做出前瞻性陳述，所有這些都受到風險和不確定性的影響。請注意，實際結果可能與這些預測有重大差異。

We will now begin the financial results briefing. Mr. Yonehana, please begin.

我們現在將開始財務業績簡報。米花先生，請開始。

I am Yonehana. Thank you very much for joining us today at this late hour for MUFG's online conference call. Please look at the material titled Financial Highlights under JGAAP for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2023. First, let me explain our financial results for FY '22, followed by our performance targets and shareholder return policy for FY '23.

我是米花。非常感謝您今天這麼晚參加我們的三菱日聯金融集團線上電話會議。請查看標題為《截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的財年 JGAAP 財務摘要》的資料。

Please skip to Page 7. I will start with the income statement summary. As shown in line 17 on the left table, profits attributable to owners of parent was JPY 1.1164 trillion, roughly flat year-on-year, achieving the performance target of JPY 1 trillion and the second highest after FY '21, which was the highest profit ever. As a result, ROE was 7.03% as shown in line 19.

請跳至第 7 頁。如左表第17行所示，母公司股東應占利潤為11164億日元，年比基本持平，實現了1萬億日元的業績目標，是繼2019財年最高的2017財年之後第二高的業績目標。結果，ROE 為 7.03%，如第 19 行所示。

Regarding the breakdown of the financial results, Line 1, gross profit was an increase of JPY 539 billion year-on-year. Line 2 and below is the breakdown of gross profits, which shows a large year-on-year increase or decrease, depending on the item. This is a result of the treasury business using JPY 555.7 billion in gains on cancellation of their fund and gains on derivative hedging to rebalance the portfolio centering on foreign bonds.

從財務績效明細來看，第1行毛利年增5,390億日圓。第2行及以下是毛利的明細，顯示年比大幅增減，視項目而定。這是資金業務利用5,557億日圓的基金註銷收益和衍生性商品對沖收益來重新平衡以外國債券為中心的投資組合的結果。

Gains on cancellation of the bear fund is included in Line 2, net interest income and the losses on the sale of foreign bonds is included in Line 5, net gains or losses on debt securities. Although it is difficult to see the actual increase or decrease due to these factors, the drivers of the increase in gross profits are an increase of overseas interest income of loans and deposits due to global interest rate hikes and improvement of lending spread, an increase in foreign exchange and trading income by capturing market fluctuations, and an increase in foreign loan-related fees.

取消熊市基金的收益包含在第 2 行「淨利息收入」中，出售外國債券的損失包含在第 5 行「債務證券淨損益」中。雖然受這些因素的影響很難看到實際的增減，但毛利成長的驅動因素是全球升息和貸款利差改善導致的海外貸款和存款利息收入的增加，以及貸款利差的改善。波動來增加外匯和交易收入，並增加國外貸款相關費用。

Next, Line 6, G&A expenses increased by JPY 161.4 billion year-on-year, but decreased by around JPY 30 billion in real terms excluding the impact of foreign exchange and the sale of Union Bank or MUB. Line 20, expense ratio was 64.5%, a significant improvement of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, thanks to expense controls and a significant increase in gross profits. As a result, Line 7, NOP was JPY 1.5942 trillion, up by JPY 377.5 billion, recovering to the level prior to the introduction of negative interest rates. Next, Line 8, total credit costs increased by JPY 343.4 billion year-on-year mainly due to JPY 393.9 billion valuation losses on loans held by MUB, resulting from the accounting treatment associated with the decision to sell MUB. However, the valuation losses were reversed as part of extraordinary gains. So in real terms, after adjusting for this effect, credit costs decreased by JPY 50.5 billion year-on-year.

接下來，第6行的G&A費用年增1,614億日元，但扣除外匯和聯合銀行或MUB出售的影響，實際減少約300億日元。 20號線，費用率為64.5%，較去年大幅提升4.7個百分點，得益於費用控制及毛利大幅成長。結果，第7行NOP為1.5942兆日元，增加了3775億日元，恢復至負利率推出前的水平。接下來，第8行，總信貸成本年增3,434億日元，主要是由於與出售MUB的決定相關的會計處理導致MUB持有的貸款估值損失3,939億日元。然而，估值損失作為非經常性收益的一部分被扭轉。因此，以實際價值計算，調整此影響後，信貸成本年減了 505 億日圓。

Line 13, other nonrecurring gains or losses after adjusting for the amount of valuation losses of bonds held by MUB that were reversed as extraordinary gains due to the same accounting treatment as credit costs, expenses increased by JPY 149.5 billion year-on-year due to a portion of the valuation losses of bonds held by MUB and the impact of onetime expenses related to the sale of MUB.

第13行，調整MUB持有的債券估值損失金額後的其他非經常性損益，由於與信貸成本相同的會計處理而轉回非經常性收益，費用同比增加1,495億日元，原因是MUB 持有的債券估價損失的一部分以及與出售MUB 相關的一次性費用的影響。

Finally, Line 15, net extraordinary gains or losses increased by JPY 596.9 billion mainly due to JPY 699.5 billion gain on sale of MUB shares, including the reversal of valuation losses related to MUB share transfer, which was recorded in the item up to ordinary income. However, most of the increase was due to shifts between accounts. So excluding this factor, the decrease was JPY 138 billion year-on-year due to onetime expenses associated with the implementation of structural reforms.

最後，第15行，非經常性損益淨額增加了5,969億日元，主要是由於出售MUB股票獲得了6,995億日元收益，其中包括與MUB股票轉讓相關的估值損失的轉回，該損失計入普通收入項目。然而，大部分的成長是由於帳戶之間的轉移所造成。因此，排除此因素，由於實施結構性改革的一次性費用，較去年同期減少1,380億日圓。

As a result, Line 17, profits attributable to owners of parent was JPY 1.1164 trillion, a decrease of JPY 14.3 billion. FY '22 financial results are difficult to understand because of the shifts between accounts due to the sale of MUB, but in a nutshell, NOP, which is a profit from the core business, increased significantly while we pursued the disposal of valuation losses on foreign bonds. This offset onetime costs and losses associated with the sale of MUB as well as onetime costs associated with structural reforms. Therefore, profits attributable to owners of parent was on par with the record-high income in FY '21 while achieving for the second straight year the goal of stable profit of JPY 1 trillion or more set forth in the medium-term business plan.

結果，第17行歸屬於母公司所有者的利潤為11,164億日元，減少了143億日元。由於出售 MUB 導致帳戶之間發生變化，22 財年的財務表現難以理解，但簡而言之，當我們尋求處置海外估值損失時，核心業務利潤 NOP 大幅增加債券。這抵消了與出售 MUB 相關的一次性成本和損失以及與結構改革相關的一次性成本。因此，母公司股東應占利潤與21財年創歷史新高的收入持平，連續第二年實現了中期經營計畫中規定的穩定利潤1兆日圓以上的目標。

Please turn to Page 8. The lower-left graph shows year-on-year changes in NOP by business segment. In customer segments, profits in AM/IS decreased slightly due to the absence of large performance fees we had in FY '21, but other business groups enjoyed a profit increase, including higher net interest income from loans and deposits and foreign exchange-related income, resulting in a significant increase of JPY 443.1 billion in total customer segments. In addition, Global Markets business group made progress in recording loss on sale of foreign bonds. But on the other hand, sales and trading revenues from foreign exchange and interest rates grew substantially, which curbed the decline in profit.

請翻至第8頁。在客戶細分市場中，由於我們在21 財年沒有收取大量績效費用，AM/IS 的利潤略有下降，但其他業務集團的利潤有所增加，包括來自貸款和存款的淨利息收入以及外匯相關收入的增加，導致客戶群總數大幅增加 4,431 億日圓。此外，全球市場業務集團在外國債券銷售虧損方面取得了進展。但另一方面，來自外匯和利率的銷售和交易收入大幅成長，抑制了利潤的下降。

Please turn to Page 9. The right side shows the changes in net income by business segment. In addition to AM/IS and Global Markets with lower NOP, GCB business group posted a decrease in net income due to the absence of reversal of credit costs in MUAH we had in FY '21. While the other business groups, DS, R&C, JCIB and GCIB recorded an increase in net income, thanks to higher NOP and customer segments as a whole reported an increase of JPY 120.1 billion.

請翻至第9頁。除了 NOP 較低的 AM/IS 和全球市場之外，GCB 業務集團的淨利潤也有所下降，因為我們在 21 財年的 MUAH 信貸成本沒有逆轉。而其他業務集團 DS、R&C、JCIB 和 GCIB 的淨利潤則有所增長，這得益於較高的 NOP 和整個客戶群的淨利潤增長了 1,201 億日元。

Please skip to Page 11, which shows the balance sheet summary. On the left table, Line 2 and below, loans show an increase of JPY 1.3 trillion in domestic corporate loans and decrease of JPY 1.8 trillion in overseas loans from the end of March '22. Overseas loan decreased due to a JPY 7.5 trillion decrease from the sale of MUB, but was an increase excluding this factor. Also, in deposits, Line 12 and below, while both domestic individual and corporate deposits increased, overseas deposits decreased. This was also due to the approximately JPY 12 trillion decrease in deposits resulting from the sale of MUB. And excluding this effect, overseas deposits increased.

請跳至第 11 頁，其中顯示資產負債表摘要。左表第2行及以下貸款顯示，自2022年3月末以來，國內企業貸款增加了1.3兆日元，海外貸款減少了1.8兆日圓。由於出售 MUB 導致海外貸款減少 7.5 兆日元，但剔除該因素後海外貸款增加。另外，從存款來看，12號線及以下存款中，境內個人及企業存款均有所增加，而境外存款則有所減少。這也是由於出售 MUB 導致存款減少約 12 兆日圓。排除此影響，海外存款有所增加。

Page 12 shows the status of domestic loans. The lower-right graph shows a trend of the domestic corporate lending spread. The red-dotted line shows the lending spread of large corporates, which is continuing to show trends of improvement. The orange line shows a lending spread of small- and medium-sized enterprises, showing a gradual improvement with the bottoming out, except for the effect of the timing of recording of interest income on interest subsidy system.

第12頁顯示了國內貸款的狀況。右下圖顯示了國內企業貸款利差的趨勢。紅虛線顯示的是大型企業的貸款利差，持續呈現改善趨勢。橘色線為中小企業貸款利差，除了利息收入記錄時間對貼息制度的影響外，呈現出觸底逐步改善的趨勢。

The next page, Page 13, shows the status of overseas loans. The bottom line in the upper-right graph shows the differences in yield between lending rate and deposit rate of nonconsolidated, that is the Bank and the Trust Bank combined, which has shown a slight decline with higher interest rate but is steadily expanding from the previous year. The bottom-right graph shows the trend of the overseas lending spread. The lending spread has been steadily improving as a result of our efforts to improve profitability.

下一頁，第13頁，顯示了海外貸款的狀況。右上圖的底線顯示的是非並表貸款利率和存款利率之間的收益率差，即銀行和信託銀行的總和，隨著利率的上升，貸款利率和存款利率的收益率差異略有下降，但較之前穩步擴大。右下圖顯示了海外貸款利差的走勢。由於我們努力提高獲利能力，貸款利差穩定改善。

Please proceed to the next page, Page 14, showing the status of loan assets. The balance of nonperforming loans are shown as a line graph on the left, increased slightly from the end of the previous fiscal year. However, the NPL ratio indicated by the dotted line is still at a low level.

請進入下一頁，即第 14 頁，顯示貸款資產的狀態。不良貸款餘額如左側折線圖所示，較上一財政年度結束時略有增加。但虛線所示的不良貸款率仍處於較低水準。

On Page 15 is the status of investment securities, such as equity securities and government bonds. Although unrealized gains shown in the upper-left table decreased from the end of the previous fiscal year partly due to rising interest rates overseas, the total unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities amounted to JPY 1.4 trillion. Of this amount, the unrealized loss on foreign bonds as of the end of March, the seventh line, is approximately JPY 1.1 trillion. But as shown in the upper-right graph, the valuation loss on the actual basis, taking into account valuation gains from hedging positions, was approximately JPY 0.7 trillion, improving from the peak at the end of September 2022.

第 15 頁是投資證券的狀況，例如股本證券和政府債券。儘管左上表所示的未實現收益較上一財年末有所減少，部分原因是海外利率上升，但可供出售證券的未實現收益總額為1.4兆日圓。其中，截至 3 月底（第七行）的外國債券未實現損失約 1.1 兆日圓。但如右上圖所示，考慮到對沖頭寸的估值收益，實際估值損失約為0.7兆日圓，較2022年9月底的峰值有所改善。

Page 16 shows the status of capital adequacy. The CET1 ratio excluding unrealized gains on a finalized Basel III reform basis was 10.3%, which exceeded the upper limit of the target range of 10% in the medium-term business plan with the ratio continuing to be adequate from the viewpoint of soundness. That is all for the explanation of the financial results.

第16頁顯示了資本充足率的狀況。在最終確定的巴塞爾協議III改革基礎上扣除未實現收益的CET1比率為10.3%，超出了中期經營計劃中10%的目標範圍上限，從穩健性角度來看，該比率仍然充足。這就是對財務表現的解釋。

Please turn back to Page 2. Next, I would like to explain our performance targets for fiscal year '23. In February '23, the final year of our medium-term business plan, we have set a target of JPY 1.3 trillion, the highest ever for profits attributable to owners of parent. Although we expect a decrease in profit due to the absence of net operating profit from Union Bank and the appreciation of the Japanese yen, we expect to see accumulation of net operating profit in the customer segments and start to achieve ROE of 7.5%, the financial target of the medium-term business plan.

請回到第2頁。 23 年 2 月，也就是我們中期業務計畫的最後一年，我們設定了 1.3 兆日圓的目標，這是母公司所有者應占利潤的最高目標。儘管我們預計由於聯合銀行淨利潤的缺失和日元升值，利潤將有所下降，但我們預計客戶細分市場的淨利潤將不斷積累，並開始實現 7.5% 的 ROE，即財務指標的 ROE。經營計劃的目標。

The business environment will continue to be difficult due to rising interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and concern that the bankruptcies of some overseas financial institutions will have a ripple effect on the real economy. However, we have been able to build a strong business model both in Japan and overseas through the structural reforms we have undertaken to date. We believe that we can meet the needs of various customers on a group-wide basis, including our partner banks in Asia and Morgan Stanley. In FY '23, as a final stage of the current medium-term business plan, we will work to ensure that the effects of the measures we have taken are linked to results that we achieve our goals at all costs.

由於歐美利率上升以及部分海外金融機構破產對實體經濟產生連鎖反應的擔憂，營商環境將持續困難。然而，透過迄今為止的結構改革，我們已經能夠在日本和海外建立強大的商業模式。我們相信，我們能夠在整個集團範圍內滿足各種客戶的需求，包括我們在亞洲的合作夥伴銀行和摩根士丹利。在 23 財年，作為當前中期業務計劃的最後階段，我們將努力確保我們所採取措施的效果與我們不惜一切代價實現目標的結果掛鉤。

Please turn to the next page. This is the progress of the 3 drivers for achieving ROE target, namely profits, expenses and risk-weighted assets. In terms of profit at the top, net operating profits in the customer segments increased significantly by JPY 443.1 billion as a result of our efforts in line with our growth strategy showing that the earning power is steadily improving. Profits attributable to owners of parent also remained steady, exceeding JPY 1 trillion 2 years in a row. We are also able to confirm that control of expenses was done and RWA shown in the lower section, and we are feeling a certain level of responses in the respect.

請翻到下一頁。這是實現ROE目標的三個驅動因素，即利潤、費用和風險加權資產的進展。從頂層利潤來看，由於我們按照成長策略進行努力，客戶部門的淨利潤大幅增加了4,431億日圓，獲利能力正在穩步提高。母公司所有者應占利潤也保持穩定，連續兩年超過1兆日圓。我們還能夠確認已經完成了費用控制，並且 RWA 顯示在下半部分，並且我們在這方面感受到了一定程度的反應。

Please turn to Page 4. First, the ROE target and capital management target in the upper left-hand corner. Although ROE for fiscal year '22 was 7.03% down from the previous year, we are making steady progress toward achieving the target of 7.5% for the final year of the medium-term business plan. The common equity Tier 1 ratio was 10.3%, which is above the target range. However, with the recent bankruptcies of overseas financial institutions, we believe it is necessary to assess the impact on the real economy as well as the effect on the regulatory environment. We believe that we are at a point in our business where we need to manage our capital comfortably.

請翻第4頁。儘管22財年的淨資產收益率比前一年下降了7.03%，但我們正在朝著實現中期經營計畫最後一年7.5%的目標穩步前進。普通股一級資本比率為10.3%，高於目標範圍。但近期海外金融機構紛紛破產，我們認為有必要評估其對實體經濟的影響以及對監管環境的影響。我們相信，我們的業務正處於需要輕鬆管理資本的階段。

Next, regarding shareholder returns shown in the upper-right corner, we consider the enhancement of shareholder returns to be an important management issue for MUFG. And there are policies to strive to enhance shareholder returns based on dividends while considering the optimal balance between capital soundness and investment focus. Based on this policy, in FY '22, we increased the annual dividend per share by JPY 4 in addition to a share buyback of JPY 450 billion, the largest ever. In FY '23, in order to realize a dividend payout ratio of 40% set forth in our medium-term business plan, we forecast an annual dividend of JPY 41 per share, an increase of JPY 9 share, the largest increase in our history.

接下來，關於右上角顯示的股東回報，我們認為提高股東回報是三菱日聯金融集團的重要管理議題。並且有政策努力提高以股利為基礎的股東回報，同時考慮資本穩健性和投資重點之間的最佳平衡。基於這項政策，22 財年，我們將每股年度股利增加了 4 日圓，此外還進行了有史以來規模最大的 4,500 億日圓的股票回購。 23財年，為了實現中期經營計畫中規定的40%的股利支付率，預計年度股利為每股41日圓，每股增加9日圓，為史上最大增幅。

Lastly, regarding the initiatives to enhance shareholder value in the lower part of the slide, through initiatives, including pursuance of growth strategies, structural reforms and capital management, as outlined in the medium-term business plan, achieving medium- and long-term increases in ROE, we will link this to increasing shareholder value continuously. That is all. Thank you.

最後，關於投影片下半部提高股東價值的舉措，透過中期經營計畫中概述的成長策略、結構改革和資本管理等舉措，實現中長期成長在淨資產收益率方面，我們將其與不斷增加股東價值連結起來。就這些。謝謝。

Thank you. We will now take questions for the remaining 35 minutes. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在將在剩下的 35 分鐘內回答問題。 （操作員說明）

So first questioner, Mr. Takamiya, please.

那麼第一位提問者，高宮先生，有請。

I am Takamiya from Nomura Securities. I have 2 questions, please. First, I would like to know your views on the level of capital and the share buyback; and second, about your thoughts on the level of underlying profit growth for FY '23. Please explain in more detail why you have decided not to repurchase shares even though your CET1 ratio is above 10%, the target range.

我是野村證券的高宮。我有 2 個問題，請問。首先我想了解您對資本水準和股票回購的看法；其次，關於您對 23 財年基本利潤成長水準的看法。請更詳細地解釋為什麼即使您的 CET1 比率高於目標範圍 10%，您仍決定不回購股票。

You mentioned bankruptcies of overseas financial institutions, et cetera. If you plan to assess the impact on the real economy, what kind of time frame do you envision for that? Including U.S. monetary policy, we may have to ascertain the situation for 6 to 12 months. Looking back over the past several years, there was hardly any moment when the environment surrounding banks was clear. Which points are you particularly concerned about? And how long do you think it will take given the current circumstances? On that basis, what are your current thoughts on the CET1 ratio and share repurchases? That is my first question.

你提到境外金融機構破產等問題。如果您計劃評估對實體經濟的影響，您預計需要什麼樣的時間框架？包括美國的貨幣政策，可能還需要6到12個月的時間才能確定。回顧過去幾年，銀行周圍的環境幾乎沒有一次是清晰的。您特別關注哪些點？鑑於目前的情況，您認為需要多長時間？在此基礎上，您目前對CET1比率和股票回購有何看法？這是我的第一個問題。

Second question, could you clarify how much increase in underlying profit is expected in FY '23, excluding various special factors? In FY '23, NOP target after adjusting for MUB valuation losses is a decrease of JPY 140 billion. But considering the impact of the strong yen and the absence of NOP from MUB, I think we can expect an NOP increase of about JPY 100 billion on an actual basis. If we assume that the net gains on equity securities will decrease and that credit costs will increase by about JPY 20 billion, am I correct to project that ordinary profit in real terms will increase by about JPY 50 billion to JPY 60 billion year-on-year on pretax basis? Should we also consider gains from investment trust cancellations, et cetera? Could you please clarify your view on the increase in underlying profit, please?

第二個問題，您能否澄清一下，在排除各種特殊因素的情況下，預計 23 財年的基本利潤將增加多少？ 23 財年，調整 MUB 估值損失後的 NOP 目標是減少 1,400 億日圓。但考慮到日圓走強以及MUB沒有NOP的影響，我認為我們可以預期NOP實際增加約1000億日圓。如果我們假設股本證券的淨收益將減少，信貸成本將增加約200億日元，我對實際普通利潤將同比增加約500億日元至600億日元的預測是否正確？ ？我們是否也應該考慮投資信託取消等帶來的利益？您能否澄清一下您對基礎利潤增加的看法？

Mr. Takamiya, thank you for your question. Let me explain the relationship between our capital level and the fact that we decided not to do share buyback this time. Regarding share buyback, looking back on the recent past, after the second quarter of FY '22, we resolved to repurchase JPY 150 billion of our own shares by taking advantage of the capital release effect of the MUB sale. At that point, we decided to forgo the regular portion of the repurchase, taking into account the uncertainty of the environment and the volatility of the financial markets.

高宮先生，謝謝您的提問。我來解釋一下我們的資本水準和我們這次決定不回購股票之間的關係。關於股票回購，回顧最近的過去，22財年第二季之後，我們決定利用MUB出售的資本釋放效應，回購1,500億日圓的自有股票。當時，考慮到環境的不確定性和金融市場的波動性，我們決定放棄定期回購部分。

Therefore, while we recognize that investors' expectations for share buybacks were high for the financial results briefing this time and while we believe that the uncertainty we talked about back then is gradually clearing up, the financial instability that began in March, including the bankruptcy or bailout of overseas financial institutions, has become apparent at this moment. Therefore, we decided that we need to ascertain the situation.

因此，雖然我們意識到投資者對這次財報發布會的股票回購預期很高，雖然我們相信我們當時談到的不確定性正在逐漸消除，但從3月份開始的金融不穩定，包括破產或海外金融機構的救助，此時已然凸顯。因此，我們決定需要找出情況。

In order to fulfill our financial intermediary function as a responsible financial institution, it is necessary at this point to maintain a capital buffer, which is why we achieved CET1 ratio of 10.3% and still decided to forgo share buyback. As for the time line going forward, as you just mentioned, the environment surrounding financial institutions will stay foggy for some time to come. We made this decision because the timing is right after the recent collapse of overseas financial institutions, and we want to see how it will affect the economy and regulations in the future.

為了履行我們作為負責任金融機構的金融中介職能，此時有必要維持資本緩衝，這就是為什麼我們的CET1比率達到10.3%，但仍決定放棄股票回購。至於未來的時間線，正如你剛才提到的，金融機構的環境在未來一段時間內仍將是迷霧。我們做出這個決定，是因為最近海外金融機構倒閉之後，我們想看看它對未來的經濟和監管有何影響。

You said that it may take some time to determine the impact on the real economy, but I think we can make a better judgment after some time has passed. Our next decision on share repurchases is expected to be at the second quarter results briefing of this fiscal year. This is my response to your first question.

你說對實體經濟的影響可能需要一段時間才能確定，但我認為經過一段時間後我們可以做出更好的判斷。我們關於股票回購的下一個決定預計將在本財年第二季業績發表會上做出。這是我對你第一個問題的回答。

On the second point, the underlying profit increase for FY '23 is roughly in line with what you just explained. If I may elaborate a little, our NOP target is forecasted to decline by JPY 140 billion year-on-year, which includes a total negative impact of JPY 250 billion, comprising JPY 120 billion from the sale of MUB and JPY 130 billion from the appreciation of the yen.

關於第二點，23財年的基本利潤成長與您剛才所解釋的大致一致。我可以詳細說明一下，我們的NOP 目標預計將同比下降1400 億日元，其中包括2500 億日元的負面影響，其中包括出售MUB 帶來的1200 億日元和來自MUB 的1300 億日元的負面影響。

On the other hand, we plan to offset the majority of the negative JPY 120 billion in NOP from the sale of MUB by JPY 110 billion mainly in the customer segments. Therefore, excluding the impact of foreign exchange and the sale of MUB, we plan to increase NOP by JPY 110 billion. We expect to see some items posting losses of several billions of yen, such as credit costs and other items down to ordinary profits, but we do not expect any major extraordinary gains or losses in other areas. So that is our structure for the net income target of JPY 1.3 trillion.

另一方面，我們計劃主要針對客戶群，以 1100 億日元抵消因出售 MUB 造成的 NOP 負 1200 億日元的大部分。因此，排除外匯和出售MUB的影響，我們計劃增加NOP 1100億日元。我們預期某些項目將出現數十億日圓的損失，例如信貸成本和其他項目將降至普通利潤，但我們預計其他領域不會出現重大非正常損益。這就是我們 1.3 兆日圓淨利潤目標的結構。

So broadly speaking, the impact of the sale of MUB and restructuring costs in FY '22 will disappear. And the plan is to offset the negative impact from the foreign exchange and the sale of MUB by the increase in NOP to reach JPY 1.3 trillion. This JPY 1.3 trillion would be JPY 1.24 trillion on a normalized basis, excluding the JPY 60 billion impact from the change in the equity method accounting date for Morgan Stanley from FY '23 as a onetime factor.

因此，從廣義上講，22 財年 MUB 出售和重組成本的影響將消失。該計劃是透過增加NOP至1.3兆日圓來抵消外匯和出售MUB的負面影響。在標準化基礎上，這 1.3 兆日圓將是 1.24 兆日圓，不包括摩根士丹利自 23 財年權益法會計日期變更帶來的 600 億日圓影響作為一次性因素。

We will now move on to the second person. Mr. Yano, please?

我們現在轉向第二人稱。請問矢野先生嗎？

I am Yano from JPMorgan Securities. I have 2 questions. First, in the area of overseas credit quality, concerns about CRE, commercial real estate, have been spreading, especially in the U.S. I would like to ask if you have any update on MUFG's exposure to overseas CRE and the current credit situation. This is my first question.

我是摩根大通證券的矢野。我有 2 個問題。首先，在海外信用品質方面，對商業房地產、商業房地產的擔憂正在蔓延，特別是在美國。這是我的第一個問題。

Second question is about your view on the dividend payout ratio for FY '23. With the dividend forecast of JPY 41 against a net income target of JPY 1.3 trillion, your 40% dividend payout ratio target in the MTBP will not be reached. How should we think about this?

第二個問題是關於您對 23 財年股利支付率的看法。根據 41 日圓的股息預測和 1.3 兆日圓的淨利潤目標，您的 MTBP 中 40% 的股息支付率目標將無法實現。我們該如何思考這個問題？

Thank you, Mr. Yano. Regarding overseas credit, especially U.S. CRE, I do not have the figures at hand, but I believe that the exposure to U.S. CRE is not large, and the impact on credit costs and other expenses is extremely limited. As for the second question, on the dividend payout ratio of 40%, if we simply do the math between JPY 1.3 trillion and JPY 41, the dividend payout ratio would be about 38%, as you rightly said. But as I mentioned in Mr. Takamiya's question earlier, JPY 1.3 trillion net income target factors in the approximately JPY 60 billion by including 15 months' worth of earnings of Morgan Stanley estimated based on the results for the January-March quarter due to the change in the equity method accounting date. This brings the target to JPY 1.24 trillion on a normalized basis based on which our dividend forecast of JPY 41 represents a dividend payout ratio of 40%.

謝謝你，矢野先生。關於海外信貸，特別是美國CRE，我手邊沒有數據，但我認為美國CRE的曝險並不大，對信貸成本和其他費用的影響極為有限。至於第二個問題，關於40%的股息支付率，如果我們簡單地用1.3萬億日元和41日元進行計算，股息支付率約為38%，正如你所說的那樣。但正如我之前在高宮先生的問題中提到的，由於這一變化，1.3萬億日元的淨利潤目標將約600億日元納入摩根士丹利根據1-3月季度業績估算的15個月收益中。這使標準化目標達到 1.24 兆日元，基於此，我們的股息預測為 41 日元，相當於 40% 的股息支付率。

I understand well. Sorry for the basic question.

我很明白。抱歉問這個基本問題。

Now the third questioner, Mr. Nakamura, please?

現在請第三位提問者，中村先生？

I am Nakamura from BofA Securities. I have 2 questions. The first one overlaps with Mr. Yano's question. I understand that you adjusted Morgan Stanley's JPY 60 billion for its 15-month earnings, but I think the market expects a 40% dividend payout ratio on net income. Is 40% the highest you can get adjusted for Morgan Stanley? Or is there a possibility of a further increase in dividend? That's my first question.

我是美國銀行證券公司的中村。我有 2 個問題。第一個與矢野先生的問題重疊。我了解您調整了摩根士丹利 600 億日圓的 15 個月盈利，但我認為市場預計淨利潤的股息支付率為 40%。摩根士丹利可以調整的最高利率是 40% 嗎？或者說還有進一步增加股利的可能性嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is, in projecting the CET1 ratio, my own calculations assumed a ratio of about 10.6%, but it was 10.3%. What is the reason for the 30-basis point shortfall?

我的第二個問題是，在預測CET1比例時，我自己的計算假設的比例約為10.6%，但實際上是10.3%。缺口30個基點的原因是什麼？

Thank you for the question. It depends on how you think about dividends. But the basic idea is that dividends are based on normalized earnings, excluding special factors. So if we take in 15 months of Morgan Stanley's earnings as a special case, 3 months of that is outside of the normalized portion and will decline by that amount in FY '24 and beyond. Therefore, we decided to use this dividend forecast as we believe it is appropriate to consider the dividend payout ratio based on the profit excluding the JPY 60 billion increase due to the change in the equity method accounting date, which is a one-off special factor. As a reminder, we intend to achieve the ROE target of 7.5% based on the normalized net income of JPY 1.24 trillion excluding JPY 60 billion as opposed to JPY 1.3 trillion.

感謝你的提問。這取決於您如何看待股息。但基本想法是，股利是基於標準化收益，不包括特殊因素。因此，如果我們將摩根士丹利 15 個月的收益視為特例，那麼其中 3 個月的收益超出了正常化部分，並且在 2024 財年及以後將按該金額下降。因此，我們決定使用此股股息預測，因為我們認為，根據不包括因權益法會計日期變更而增加的 600 億日圓（這是一次性特殊因素）的利潤來考慮股息支付率是適當的。提醒一下，我們打算根據 1.24 兆日圓（不包括 600 億日圓）的正常化淨利潤（而不是 1.3 兆日圓）來實現 7.5% 的 ROE 目標。

Regarding your second question, that CET1 ratio should be in the mid-10% range or even a little higher at the end of the first half. The main reason for the change from the interim projection is due to foreign currency translation adjustments. Does this answer your question?

關於你的第二個問題，上半場結束時，CET1比率應該在10%左右，甚至更高一些。中期預測變化的主要原因是外幣折算調整。這回答了你的問題了嗎？

I understand.

我明白。

Next, Mr. Matsuno, please?

接下來有請松野先生嗎？

Yes, this is Matsuno from Mizuho Securities. I would like to ask 2 questions. My first question is on ROE and capital policy. As for the denominator of the ROE, foreign currency translation adjustments will be reflected. So I would like to know the FX assumption for the current fiscal year, which I believe is projecting yen appreciation, which, in turn, will decrease the FX translation of the denominator. Is it correct to assume that the planned 7.5% takes into account share buyback to a certain extent?

是的，我是瑞穗證券的松野。我想問2個問題。我的第一個問題是關於淨資產收益率和資本政策。 ROE的分母將反映外幣折算調整。因此，我想知道當前財政年度的外匯假設，我認為該假設預測日圓升值，這反過來會減少分母的外匯換算。假設計畫中的7.5%在一定程度上考慮了股票回購是否正確？

My second question is on the change of the equity method accounting date from Morgan Stanley on the consolidated PL. What led to this decision? And in which upcoming quarters will this take change effect be resolved? Should we expect this kind of change of a date for other overseas subsidiaries going forward as well?

我的第二個問題是關於摩根士丹利合併損益的權益法會計日期的變更。是什麼導致了這個決定？這種變化效應將在未來哪些季度得到解決？我們是否應該期待其他海外子公司的日期也會發生這種變化？

Thank you very much for your question. As for the relationship between ROE and capital policy, the FX assumption at the end of the previous fiscal year was set in the low 120s to the U.S. dollar. And the FX translation of the denominator will decrease accordingly. But on the other hand, the profit of the numerator, as explained earlier, will show the negative effect coming from yen appreciation, as I answered towards Takamiya's question earlier.

非常感謝您的提問。至於ROE與資本政策的關係，上一財年末的匯率假設設定為美元兌美元匯率約120。分母的外匯換算也會隨之減少。但另一方面，正如我之前所解釋的，分子的利潤將顯示日圓升值帶來的負面影響，正如我之前回答高宮的問題一樣。

To add for your reference, we have conducted simulation between foreign exchange and ROE. And if we see swings toward yen depreciation, say, by JPY 1, the ROE will be flat or slightly increased by maybe plus 2 when we look at the denominator and the numerator with ROE turning negative with the yen appreciation. So the foreign exchange assumption is set at low 120s, but if it does not appreciate by that much, it will have a favorable effect on the ROE.

為了補充一下，我們對外匯和ROE進行了模擬，供大家參考。如果我們看到日圓貶值的波動，例如 1 日圓，那麼當我們觀察分母和分子時，ROE 將持平或略微增加，可能加 2，隨著日圓升值，ROE 變成負值。因此，外匯假設定在120左右，但如果升值幅度不大，將對ROE產生有利影響。

After whether we incorporate share buyback in the ROE target of 7.5%, in order to achieve this target, of course, profit plan and capital management is very important. And in formulating the capital policy plan, we have conducted various simulations, such as what if it was 0 or a few hundred billion yen. And as a result, we came up with a target of 7.5%.

是否在7.5%的ROE目標中納入股票回購之後，為了實現這個目標，獲利計畫和資本管理當然非常重要。而且在製定資本政策計畫時，我們進行了各種模擬，例如如果是0或幾千億日圓會怎麼樣。因此，我們提出了 7.5% 的目標。

Even if we do not buy back own shares, we will aim for 7.5%. But that does not mean that we will not consider share buyback because of this. We will surely achieve the planned ROE. And undoubtedly, looking at the current stock price, the share buyback is an effective measure of utilization of capital. So it is linked to ROE, but ROE realization and share buyback will be considered separately as we aim to achieve our targets.

即使我們不回購自己的股票，我們的目標也是7.5%。但這並不代表我們不會因此考慮股票回購。我們一定能達到計劃的ROE。而毫無疑問，從目前的股價來看，股票回購是資金運用的有效措施。所以它與ROE掛鉤，但ROE實現和股票回購將分開考慮，因為我們的目標是實現我們的目標。

Next on completion of Morgan Stanley's accounting date changes and its impact. At MUFG, we recognize timely disclosure of financial information to be an issue. Accounting day change of overseas subsidiary is acceptable under the Japanese standards by 3 months. But having said that, the significant event, for example, the recent credit costs related CECL, and such information have been disclosed early and widely on our part.

接下來介紹摩根士丹利完成的會計日期變更及其影響。在三菱日聯金融集團，我們意識到及時揭露財務資訊是一個問題。根據日本標準，海外子公司的會計日變更可以在 3 個月內變更。但話雖如此，重大事件，例如最近有關CECL的信貸成本，這些資訊我們很早就廣泛揭露了。

But looking at the recent situation, for the fiscal year just ended, that is fiscal year '22, the ratio of the net income for the year of the overseas subsidiaries came to less than 50% with Morgan Stanley impact being large, followed by Krungsri or KS. So with ratio of overseas subsidiaries being high, if there are no changes in the accounting date, that will be preferable. Its significance, its involvement of subsidiaries and which subsidiaries should be targeted and feasibility impact, these are all considered and we have continued to improve resolving this accounting date impact.

但從最近的情況來看，剛結束的財年，也就是'22財年，海外子公司的當年淨利佔比已經不足50%，其中摩根士丹利影響較大，其次是Krungsri或KS。所以海外子公司比例高的情況下，會計日期不改變的話會比較好。它的意義，涉及子公司以及應該針對哪些子公司以及可行性影響，這些都是我們考慮到的，並且不斷改進解決這個會計日期的影響。

With Morgan Stanley, the first of such attempts this fiscal year, considering significance of the amount and its high visibility in comparison to consolidated subsidiaries as it is accounted for by the equity method, we implemented the change of accounting date for Morgan Stanley and the sale of MUB last year. The impact of these 2 subsidiaries disappear, and the ratio of subsidiaries out of the net income will decrease to approximately 20%.

摩根士丹利是本財年的首次此類嘗試，考慮到該金額的重要性及其與採用權益法核算的合併子公司相比的高可見性，我們對摩根士丹利實施了會計日期變更，並進行了出售去年的MUB。這2家子公司的影響力消失，子公司佔淨利的比例將下降至20%左右。

So the question is how about the remaining overseas subsidiaries. As I mentioned earlier, we will confirm their significance and feasibility, especially focusing on Krungsri and BDI or Bank Danamon, and we will basically look at them as targets. We will continue to cooperate with such subsidiaries. And as for the 2 subsidiaries I just mentioned, the discussion is ongoing as to when this should be resolved, but it is too early to share any concrete information as of now.

那麼問題來了，剩下的海外子公司怎麼辦？正如我之前提到的，我們將確認它們的重要性和可行性，特別是關注 Krungsri 和 BDI 或 Bank Danamon，我們基本上會將它們視為目標。我們將繼續與此類子公司合作。至於我剛才提到的兩家子公司，關於何時解決這個問題的討論正在進行中，但現在分享任何具體資訊還為時過早。

In which quarter will the Morgan Stanley accounting day change impact be resolved?

摩根士丹利會計日變更影響將在哪個季度解決？

I'm sorry, I forgot to answer your question. In the first quarter of MUFG, we will account for the 2 quarters of Morgan Stanley. That is the first and the second quarters.

抱歉，我忘了回答你的問題。在三菱日聯金融集團的第一季中，我們將考慮摩根士丹利的兩個季度。這是第一季和第二季。

Next, Mr. Takai, please?

接下來有請高井先生嗎？

This is Takai from Daiwa Securities. I'd like to ask 2 questions. First, on the gain on sales of subsidiary in the amount of JPY 415.1 billion is recorded as extraordinary income for the bank on a nonconsolidated basis. Please share details of this income. Is it correct that the bank's bottom line is increased by JPY 415.1 billion on a nonconsolidated basis? It is natural for this to be offset on a consolidated basis, but due to, for example, tax effect, is there some kind of impact coming from this transaction?

我是大和證券的高井。我想問2個問題。首先，子公司銷售收益為 4,151 億日元，在非合併基礎上被記錄為銀行的非經常性收入。請分享這筆收入的詳細資訊。銀行的非合併淨利潤增加了 4,151 億日元，這是否正確？在合併的基礎上進行抵銷是很自然的，但是由於稅收效應等原因，這筆交易是否會產生某種影響？

And my second question may be redundant. But at the end of the current fiscal year, the CET1 ratio target is set at 9.5% to 10%. Will this be achieved organically even without share buyback? What if risk-weighted assets increase significantly? I would appreciate your comment.

我的第二個問題可能是多餘的。但本財政​​年度末，CET1比率目標定為9.5%至10%。即使沒有股票回購，這也會有機地實現嗎？如果風險加權資產大幅增加怎麼辦？我將不勝感激您的評論。

May I confirm your second question, please?

我可以確認你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes. My second question was, the CET1 ratio is shown with a target of 9.5% to 10% for fiscal year '23. Does this take into account share buyback is the question. Or is it just considering risk-weighted average? Would you give this number?

是的。我的第二個問題是，23 財年的 CET1 比率目標為 9.5% 至 10%。問題是這是否考慮到股票回購。或只是考慮風險加權平均值？你願意給這個號碼嗎？

As for your first question regarding the external income for the bank, on a nonconsolidated basis of JPY 415.1 billion, this was canceled in the previous year. So the question is what this is? So this is a gain on sale of the bank, selling shares to MUAH in response to MUAH's share buyback. After the sale of MUB, the asset was counted in MUAH, and therefore, the capital asset was to return to the parent that is a bank in the form of share buyback.

至於你的第一個問題，關於銀行的外部收入，在非合併基礎上為4151億日元，這在上一年被取消了。那麼問題來了，這是什麼？因此，這是銀行出售股票的收益，將股票出售給 MUAH 以回應 MUAH 的股票回購。 MUB出售後，資產計入MUAH，因此，資本資產將以股票回購的形式返還給母公司（銀行）。

So that is the essence of this trade. Therefore, for the bank, because of the difference from the book value, gain on sales is recorded. But on a consolidated basis, it is canceled because it is a trade with the parent. And the tax effect is minimal vis-à-vis the consolidated statement of MUFG. So on the nonconsolidated basis, this JPY 415.1 billion is recognized. Yes, it is correct to think that it is recognized almost fully. But on a consolidated basis, it is not recognized. No, it is not.

這就是這項貿易的本質。因此，對於銀行來說，由於與帳面價值的差異，記錄了銷售收益。但在合併的基礎上，它被取消了，因為這是與母公司的交易。與三菱日聯金融集團的合併報表相比，稅收影響微乎其微。因此，在非合併基礎上，確認了這 4,151 億日圓。是的，認為它幾乎被完全認可是正確的。但在綜合基礎上，則不被認可。不它不是。

And as for your second question, I think you are referring to the top-left graph on Page 4, which may be misleading. This is showing the target range of the CET1 ratio of the medium-term business plan. So it is not as if we are targeting it to fall between 9.5% to 10%. So we do not intend to increase, for example, RWA to control this figure. Actually, I was looking at Page 2. No, I'm sure it is the same with Page 2.

至於你的第二個問題，我認為你指的是第四頁左上角的圖表，這可能會造成誤導。這顯示了中期經營計畫的CET1比率的目標範圍。因此，我們的目標並不是將其降到 9.5% 到 10% 之間。所以我們不打算增加例如RWA來控制這個數字。事實上，我正在看第 2 頁。

Next, Mr. Niwa, please?

接下來有請丹羽先生嗎？

This is Niwa speaking from Citi. I have 2 questions. Moving away from the financial results, my question is regarding M&A and share buyback. The final investment decision integrals came to JPY 200 billion in fiscal year 2022. Was this as expected at the beginning of the fiscal year? So -- and maybe I'm looking at a short span in time, but how much of profit contribution can we expect this to bring in the current fiscal year? How much investment into growth are you projecting this fiscal year?

我是花旗銀行的丹羽。我有 2 個問題。拋開財務表現不談，我的問題是關於併購和股票回購。 2022財年最終投資決策積分達到2,000億日圓。那麼，也許我關注的時間跨度很短，但我們預計這將在本財年帶來多少利潤貢獻？您預計本財年的成長投資有多少？

You mentioned the decision regarding share buyback will be made in the midyear, which is going to be about 6 months away. I mean, why wait 6 months, it's my question. Are you incorporating that the environment will deteriorate? I mean to be agile; I believe consideration may be made more earlier.

您提到股票回購的決定將在年中做出，大約還有 6 個月的時間。我的意思是，為什麼要等 6 個月，這是我的問題。您是否考慮到環境將會惡化？我的意思是要敏捷；我相信可以更早考慮。

Thank you very much for your question. As shown on Page 5, for example, as you can see on the left, including home credit, investment totaling approximately JPY 200 billion has been decided. At the beginning of fiscal year '22, we did not specify investment into growth. But as the year went by and opportunity arose, we looked at the profitability and capital status to make the required decisions. Therefore, as for the current fiscal year, how much of the internal reserves will be put to growth investments? We do not put a concrete number to as of now.

非常感謝您的提問。例如，如第5頁所示，如左圖所示，包括家庭信貸在內，已決定投資總額約2,000億日圓。在 22 財年年初，我們沒有指定投資成長。但隨著時間的流逝和機會的出現，我們研究了獲利能力和資本狀況以做出所需的決策。那麼，本財年，內部儲備有多少會用於成長性投資呢？目前我們還沒有給出具體數字。

Home credit and Akulaku and DMI finance, for example, these acquisitions were decided in the previous fiscal year with execution of the investments still pending. As for the profit contribution in FY '23, we may expect home credit to contribute to profit partially through KS, which I mentioned earlier. And that will be through customer segments. Operating net income will be increased by JPY 110 billion, including higher profit from KS. And within this increase of JPY 20 billion, profit contribution from inorganic strategies of KS, such as Home Credit, Capital Nomura Securities and [nonbank] in Vietnam, SHB Finance, may be realized.

例如，家庭信貸、Akulaku 和 DMI 金融，這些收購是在上一財年決定的，但投資的執行仍懸而未決。至於23財年的利潤貢獻，我們可能預期家庭信貸將透過我之前提到的KS對利潤做出部分貢獻。這將透過客戶群來實現。營業淨利將增加 1,100 億日元，其中 KS 利潤增加。而在這200億日圓的增量中，KS的無機策略（如捷信、資本野村證券和越南的[非銀行]SHB Finance）可能會實現利潤貢獻。

And regarding share buyback, we said that the decision will be made midpoint of the year as a reference to the timing. The share buyback will be conducted in an agile manner because of its nature. So midyear was just a reference time point for your information.

關於股票回購，我們說會在年中做出決定，作為時間的參考。由於其性質，股份回購將以靈活的方式進行。所以年中只是你資訊的參考時間點。

We have a few minutes remaining, so we would like to have Yonehana give you some closing remarks.

我們還有幾分鐘的時間，所以我們希望米花為大家做一些總結發言。

Thank you very much for your valuable questions today. Today, I explained our achievements in fiscal year 2022. With continued focus on dialogue with our shareholders and investors, we will pursue financial and capital management aimed at sustainable enhancement of shareholder value. I would like to ask for your continued understanding and support. Thank you very much for your kind attention today.

非常感謝您今天提出的寶貴問題。今天，我向大家介紹了2022財年所取得的成就。希望大家繼續給予理解和支持。非常感謝您今天的關注。

So with that, we will end this conference. On the company web page, this conference can be seen as an archive. With that, MUFG, the financial results conference will come to a close. Thank you very much for your participation today.

至此，我們將結束本次會議。在公司網頁上，可以看到這次會議的存檔。至此，三菱日聯金融集團的財務表現會議即將結束。非常感謝您今天的參與。

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

[本筆錄中的英語陳述是由現場通話中的口譯員說出的。