MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to MACOM's Fiscal First Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, Tuesday, February 5, 2019. I will now turn the call to Steve Ferranti, Vice President of Investor Relations at MACOM. Steve, please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎參加 MACOM 2019 會計年度第一季財務業績電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位，本電話會議於今天（2019 年 2 月 5 日，星期二）進行錄音。現在我將把電話交給 MACOM 投資人關係副總裁 Steve Ferranti。Steve，請開始。

Thanks, Josie. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to MACOM's First Fiscal Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are MACOM's President and Chief Executive Officer, John Croteau; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Bob McMullan.

謝謝你，Josie。各位下午好，歡迎參加 MACOM 2019 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有 MACOM 總裁暨執行長 John Croteau，以及資深副總裁暨財務長 Bob McMullan。

If you have not yet received a copy of the earnings press release, you can obtain a copy on MACOM's website at www.macom.com under the Investor Relations section.

如果您尚未收到財報新聞稿副本，可至 MACOM 網站 www.macom.com 的「投資人關係」專區取得。

Before I turn the call over to John, I'd like to remind everyone that management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Because actual results may differ materially from those discussed today, MACOM claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在我把電話交給 John 之前，我想提醒各位，管理層的事先準備發言以及對各位提問的回答包含前瞻性陳述，並受某些風險與不確定性影響。由於實際結果可能與今日討論內容存在重大差異，MACOM 主張適用《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所載之前瞻性陳述安全港條款之保護。

For more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could result in those differences, we refer you to MACOM's filings with the SEC, including its current report on Form 8-K filed today and its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year 2018 filed on November 16, 2018. Any forward-looking statements represent management's views only as of today, February 5, 2019, and MACOM assumes no obligation to update these statements in the future.

關於可能導致上述差異之風險與不確定性的更詳細討論，請參閱 MACOM 向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，包括今日提交的 Form 8-K 當前報告，以及於 2018 年 11 月 16 日提交、截至 2018 會計年度的 Form 10-K 年度報告。任何前瞻性陳述僅代表管理層截至今日（2019 年 2 月 5 日）的觀點，MACOM 不承擔未來更新此等陳述之任何義務。

The company's press release and management statements during this conference call include discussions of certain adjusted non-GAAP measures and financial information, including all income statement amounts and percentages referred to on today's call, unless otherwise noted. These financial measures and a reconciliation of the GAAP to adjusted non-GAAP results are provided in the company's press release in the related Form 8-K, which was filed with the SEC today and can be found on the Investor Relations section of MACOM's website.

公司新聞稿以及本次電話會議期間管理層的陳述，包含對若干經調整之非 GAAP 指標與財務資訊的討論，包括今日電話會議中提及的所有損益表金額與百分比（除非另有說明）。上述財務衡量指標以及 GAAP 與經調整非 GAAP 結果之調節表，已載於公司新聞稿及相關 Form 8-K（今日已向 SEC 提交）中，並可於 MACOM 網站「投資人關係」專區查閱。

For those of you unable to listen to the entire call at this time, a recording will be available via webcast for at least 30 days in the Investor Relations section of MACOM's website.

若各位目前無法收聽完整電話會議，網路直播的錄音將於 MACOM 網站「投資人關係」專區提供至少 30 天。

And with that, I'll turn over the call to John for his comments on the quarter.

那麼，我現在把電話交給 John，請他就本季發表評論。

Thanks, Steve. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I'll begin today's call with an overview of our first quarter results for fiscal 2019. I'll then turn the call over to Bob McMullan, our CFO, who will review our financial performance in further detail. I'll conclude today's [prepared comments] by discussing key end-quarter milestones related to our secular growth drivers and close the call with guidance for the second fiscal quarter of 2019.

謝謝你，Steve。歡迎各位，感謝今天加入我們。我將先概述我們 2019 會計年度第一季的業績表現。接著我會把電話交給我們的財務長 Bob McMullan，他將更詳細地檢視我們的財務表現。我將以討論與我們長期成長驅動因素相關的季末關鍵里程碑來結束今天的[事先準備發言]，並以 2019 會計年度第二季的財測指引作為本次電話會議的結尾。

Jumping right into the numbers. Revenue for the fiscal first quarter was $151 million, roughly flat sequentially. Adjusted gross margin was 56%, and adjusted earnings per share was $0.20, at the midpoint of our guidance range. All in all, this was a solid quarterly performance in the face of a challenging macro environment. I'd like to thank the entire MACOM team for their efforts during the quarter.

直接進入數字。會計年度第一季營收為 1.51 億美元，與前一季大致持平。經調整毛利率為 56%，經調整每股盈餘為 0.20 美元，位於我們指引區間的中點。總體而言，在具挑戰性的總體環境下，這是一個穩健的季度表現。我要感謝整個 MACOM 團隊在本季的努力。

Before turning it over to Bob to review our Q1 financial results in more detail, I'd like to provide a few comments on the current market. Like everyone else, we're currently navigating through several macroeconomic and trade-related cross-currents. In spite of this, we believe that the second half of calendar 2019 will improve, underpinned by the onset of some major infrastructure build-outs, most notably in 5G. Based upon conversations with our client customers, there is clearly some inventory digestion underway in the data center supply chain.

在把電話交給 Bob 更詳細檢視我們第一季財務結果之前，我想先就目前市場提供幾點評論。和其他公司一樣，我們目前正因應多項總體經濟與貿易相關的交互影響因素。儘管如此，我們相信 2019 年下半年將有所改善，主要受一些重大基礎建設擴建啟動所支撐，其中最顯著的是 5G。根據我們與客戶端客戶的對話，資料中心供應鏈顯然正在進行庫存去化。

Seasonally speaking, the early part of the year normally tends to have lower visibility as orders slow going into Chinese New Year. This year, trade tensions and recent geopolitical events have exacerbated the situation. In the data center optical module supply chain, which has traditionally had a heavy manufacturing presence in China, uncertainty around tariffs and trade restrictions has disrupted order patterns. Cloud customers' orders have slowed as they burn off inventory and reassess their long-term manufacturing footprint. Some of the smaller module makers look to be exiting the space entirely.

從季節性來看，年初通常因訂單在農曆新年前放緩而能見度較低。今年，貿易緊張局勢與近期地緣政治事件使情況更加惡化。在資料中心光模組供應鏈中，傳統上製造據點高度集中於中國，關於關稅與貿易限制的不確定性已擾亂訂單模式。雲端客戶在消化庫存並重新評估其長期製造布局之際，訂單已放緩。部分較小的模組製造商看起來甚至正完全退出該領域。

Additionally, in the industrial markets, we've started seeing sluggishness consistent with the macro slowdown that our larger analog peers have been reporting. The net result is that after 4 consecutive quarters of 8%-plus sequential growth in our I&D business, we're anticipating a down quarter in fiscal Q2. These factors are all reflected in our Q2 guidance.

此外，在工業市場方面，我們開始看到與我們較大型的類比同業所回報之總體放緩一致的疲弱跡象。其結果是，在我們 I&D（工業與國防）業務連續 4 個季度出現 8% 以上的季增成長之後，我們預期 2019 會計年度第二季將出現下滑的一季。這些因素都已反映在我們對第二季的指引之中。

To be clear, we view all of these issues as short term and temporary in nature. Despite geopolitical and trade-related headwinds, end market demand looks healthy for the year as a whole, with 5G in particular expected to drive a rebound as we get into the latter part of the year. I'll talk more about this later in the call.

需要說明的是，我們認為這些問題皆屬短期且暫時性。儘管面臨地緣政治與貿易相關的逆風，整體年度的終端市場需求看起來仍然健康，尤其是 5G，預期將在今年後段帶動反彈。我稍後會在電話會議中進一步說明。

At this point, I'd like to turn it over to Bob for a more in-depth review of our fiscal first quarter financials.

接下來，我想把電話交給 Bob，請他更深入檢視我們會計年度第一季的財務狀況。

Thank you, John. Good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal Q1 continued the trend of improving results for MACOM overall. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $30 million, up 13% sequentially and 41% year-over-year.

謝謝你，John。各位下午好。會計年度第一季延續了 MACOM 整體業績改善的趨勢。經調整 EBITDA 增至 3,000 萬美元，較前一季成長 13%，較去年同期成長 41%。

GAAP cash flow from operations was positive $3 million, reduced by an increase in working capital of $14 million. This increase was due to seasonal impact of many of our calendar year-end customers, which extended the timing of payments of accounts receivable. Capital expenditures were $12 million. Thus, MACOM generated negative free cash flow of $9 million as MACOM continues to invest to meet the demand and capacity requirements of emerging opportunities and the negative timing effect of increased working capital. Total cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments decreased by $7 million sequentially and totaled $186 million.

依 GAAP 計算之營運活動現金流為正 300 萬美元，但因營運資金增加 1,400 萬美元而受到影響。此增加係由於我們許多以曆年年底為結算的客戶之季節性影響，導致應收帳款收款時點延後。資本支出為 1,200 萬美元。因此，MACOM 產生負 900 萬美元的自由現金流；公司持續投資以滿足新興機會的需求與產能要求，同時亦受到營運資金增加所帶來的負面時點效應影響。現金、約當現金及短期投資合計較前一季減少 700 萬美元，總額為 1.86 億美元。

Revenue in fiscal Q1 was $151 million, up 15% year-over-year from $131 million and flat sequentially. Excluding $12 million of LR4 revenue in fiscal Q1 2018, revenues grew 26% year-over-year. MACOM has one more quarter comparison with the LR4 business.

會計年度第一季營收為 1.51 億美元，較去年同期的 1.31 億美元成長 15%，與前一季持平。若排除 2018 會計年度第一季的 1,200 萬美元 LR4 營收，營收年增 26%。MACOM 與 LR4 業務的比較還剩最後一個季度。

Revenues by end market. Telecom was $50 million and 33% of total revenue, down 10% year-over-year and down 5% sequentially. Excluding the LR4 revenue, telecom grew 15% year-over-year. Data Center was $43 million and 29% of total revenue, up 24% year-over-year, down 6% sequentially. Industrial & Defense was $57 million and 38% of total revenues, up 41% year-over-year, up 9% sequentially. To note, this was the first fiscal quarter in which Industrial & Defense was MACOM's largest end market.

按終端市場劃分之營收。電信為 5,000 萬美元，占總營收 33%，較去年同期下降 10%，較前一季下降 5%。若排除 LR4 營收，電信年增 15%。資料中心為 4,300 萬美元，占總營收 29%，年增 24%，季減 6%。工業與國防為 5,700 萬美元，占總營收 38%，年增 41%，季增 9%。值得注意的是，這是工業與國防首次在會計季度中成為 MACOM 最大的終端市場。

Adjusted gross profit and gross margin in fiscal Q1 was $85 million and 56% of revenue, respectively, compared to $70 million and 54% of revenue, respectively, year-over-year and $83 million and 55%, respectively, on a sequential basis.

會計年度第一季的調整後毛利與毛利率分別為8,500萬美元與營收的56%，相較於去年同期分別為7,000萬美元與營收的54%，以及相較於前一季分別為8,300萬美元與55%。

Operating expenses. Total adjusted operating expenses were $63 million compared to $57 million year-over-year and $64 million sequentially. Adjusted operating expenses were down approximately $1 million or 2% sequentially. Variable material expenses were lower in fiscal Q1 versus fiscal Q4. Adjusted R&D and SG&A expenses were $40 million and $23 million, respectively, in fiscal Q1.

營業費用。調整後營業費用總額為6,300萬美元，相較於去年同期為5,700萬美元，前一季為6,400萬美元。調整後營業費用較前一季約減少100萬美元或2%。會計年度第一季的變動性材料費用低於會計年度第四季。會計年度第一季的調整後研發費用與銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用分別為4,000萬美元與2,300萬美元。

Adjusted income from operations and operating margin were $22 million and 15% of revenues, respectively, up 63% in dollars and up 41% on a percentage basis year-over-year and up 17% in dollars and up 18% on a percentage basis sequentially.

調整後營業利益與營業利益率分別為2,200萬美元與營收的15%；以金額計較去年同期增加63%，以百分比計增加41%；較前一季以金額計增加17%，以百分比計增加18%。

Net interest expense was up $700,000 sequentially to $8 million, primarily due to capital leases associated with MACOM's Lowell facility.

淨利息費用較前一季增加70萬美元至800萬美元，主要係因與MACOM洛威爾（Lowell）廠房相關的資本租賃所致。

Our normalized adjusted income tax rate in fiscal Q1 continued at 8%. Our GAAP effective tax rate was 5% for fiscal Q1. As to cash taxes, we had net cash payments of less than $100,000. During fiscal Q1, MACOM filed amended tax returns that will result in $7 million of tax refunds to be received in fiscal 2019. Additionally, the final calculation of the impact of the new tax law on past foreign profits taxable in 2019 is 0 as our NOLs offset calculated tax.

我們在會計年度第一季的常態化調整後所得稅率維持在8%。我們會計年度第一季的GAAP有效稅率為5%。就現金稅而言，我們的淨現金支付少於10萬美元。在會計年度第一季期間，MACOM提交了更正後的報稅申報表，將使我們在2019會計年度收到700萬美元的退稅。此外，新稅法對過去海外利潤（於2019年課稅）的影響之最終計算結果為0，因為我們的淨營業虧損（NOL）抵銷了計算出的稅額。

Our fiscal Q1 adjusted net income and EPS were $13 million and $0.20 per fully diluted share, respectively, up from $7 million and $0.10 year-over-year and up fiscal Q4 adjusted net income of $11 million and EPS of $0.16. Adjusted net income increased 94% year-over-year and 23% sequentially. Adjusted EPS was up 100% year-over-year and up 25%, respectively, also on a sequential basis. The share count used to calculate fiscal Q1 adjusted EPS was 65.6 million fully diluted shares.

我們會計年度第一季的調整後淨利與每股盈餘（EPS）分別為1,300萬美元與每股0.20美元（完全稀釋後），高於去年同期的700萬美元與每股0.10美元，亦高於會計年度第四季的調整後淨利1,100萬美元與每股盈餘0.16美元。調整後淨利較去年同期增加94%，較前一季增加23%。調整後EPS較去年同期增加100%，且較前一季增加25%。用於計算會計年度第一季調整後EPS的股數為6,560萬股（完全稀釋後）。

As previously noted, adjusted EBITDA, or earnings before interest taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $30 million, up 41% from $21 million year-over-year and up 13% from $26 million sequentially.

如先前所述，調整後EBITDA（即息稅折舊攤銷前盈餘）為3,000萬美元，較去年同期的2,100萬美元增加41%，較前一季的2,600萬美元增加13%。

Moving to cash flow. As I mentioned, GAAP cash flow from operations was $3 million in fiscal Q1 compared to $500,000 year-over-year and $25 million in Q4. Contrary to Q4, improved operating income was offset by increased working capital of $14 million. This is a fiscal Q1 issue for MACOM as a majority of customers and vendors are calendar year companies that delay payments on accounts receivable, and MACOM pays down accounts payable during the same period. After deducting capital expenditures, free cash flow was negative $9 million, down from positive $11 million sequentially due to the increase in working capital.

接著談現金流。如我提到的，會計年度第一季GAAP營運活動現金流為300萬美元，相較於去年同期為50萬美元，且相較於第四季為2,500萬美元。不同於第四季，營業利益改善被1,400萬美元的營運資金增加所抵銷。這是MACOM在會計年度第一季的特有情況，因為多數客戶與供應商以曆年為會計年度，會延後應收帳款付款，而MACOM在同一期間會降低應付帳款。扣除資本支出後，自由現金流為負900萬美元，較前一季的正1,100萬美元下降，原因在於營運資金增加。

Capital expenditures in fiscal Q1 was $12 million or 8% of revenues, and depreciation expense was $8 million.

會計年度第一季的資本支出為1,200萬美元（占營收8%），折舊費用為800萬美元。

MACOM balance sheet numbers. As I said, MACOM's cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $186 million, down from $193 million sequentially. Accounts receivable were $110 million, up from $97 million sequentially. Days sales outstanding were 66 days, up from 59 days sequentially. Inventories were $121 million, down $2 million sequentially. Inventory turns were flat at 2.2x. Days of inventory were 167 days compared to 163 days sequentially.

MACOM資產負債表數據。如我所說，MACOM的現金、約當現金及短期投資為1.86億美元，較前一季的1.93億美元下降。應收帳款為1.10億美元，較前一季的9,700萬美元上升。應收帳款週轉天數（DSO）為66天，較前一季的59天上升。存貨為1.21億美元，較前一季減少200萬美元。存貨週轉率持平於2.2倍。存貨天數為167天，相較於前一季為163天。

Long-term debt was $689 million, inclusive of capital leases. Long-term debt of $659 million was termed with minimum annual principal payments until maturity of May 2024 and covenant life. MACOM has an undrawn $160 million credit line available through November of 2021.

長期負債為6.89億美元，包含資本租賃。其中6.59億美元的長期負債為定期貸款，至2024年5月到期前需每年支付最低本金，並受契約條款約束。MACOM有一筆1.60億美元的循環信用額度尚未動用，可用至2021年11月。

Back to you, John.

交回給你，John。

Thanks, Bob. Now I'll provide an update on our secular growth drivers, starting with cloud data centers.

謝謝，Bob。接下來我將從雲端資料中心開始，更新我們的長期結構性成長驅動因素。

We share the view that demand should recover in the second half of 2019. Our cloud customers have said they expect to burn off inventories within the next quarter or so. The current macroeconomic slowdown and inventory digestion does not change the fundamental need for high-speed connectivity in data centers. Cloud operators' greatest strengths and growth strategies depend on ultra high-speed links between server racks and across their data centers.

我們同意需求應會在2019年下半年復甦的看法。我們的雲端客戶表示，他們預期在接下來一季左右消化完存貨。目前的總體經濟放緩與存貨去化，並不改變資料中心對高速連結的根本需求。雲端營運商最大的優勢與成長策略，仰賴伺服器機櫃之間以及跨資料中心的超高速連結。

We're still in the early innings of the transition to 100-gig and ultimately higher data rates inside the data center. Customers' forecast for 2019 and 2020 bear this out, predicting strong growth in the years ahead for 100-gig CWDM4 and PAM4 in spite of the slow start this year.

我們仍處於資料中心內部從10G/40G轉向100G並最終走向更高資料速率的早期階段。客戶對2019年與2020年的預測也印證了這點：儘管今年開局偏慢，仍預期100G CWDM4與PAM4在未來幾年將強勁成長。

We continue to make solid progress in commercializing our 25-gig lasers. Customer response to our current generation of products has been very positive, and we're in the various stages of qualification across multiple customers. We're now actively negotiating share allocations for 2019.

我們在25G雷射的商業化方面持續取得扎實進展。客戶對我們現行世代產品的反應非常正面，我們正與多家客戶進行不同階段的認證。我們目前也正積極就2019年的供貨份額分配進行談判。

Similarly, we continue to make solid progress commercializing our PAM4 and L-PIC investments as we work with customers and suppliers to scale these into high-volume production. We expect each of these new product lines to incrementally contribute to revenue growth this year, independent of the current trade or inventory dynamics in data centers.

同樣地，隨著我們與客戶及供應商合作，將PAM4與L-PIC投資擴大至大規模量產，我們在其商業化方面也持續取得扎實進展。我們預期這些新產品線在今年將逐步為營收成長帶來貢獻，且不受資料中心目前貿易或存貨動態的影響。

Finally, I'd like to note that all of these opportunities are additive to our current Data Center business so that as the market normalizes, we're well positioned to accelerate growth. It's only an issue of ramp rate and timing.

最後我想指出，所有這些機會都是在我們現有資料中心業務之上疊加增量；因此當市場回歸常態時，我們已具備加速成長的良好定位。這只是一個爬坡速度與時點的問題。

Next, to global and homeland defense. Over the last 90 days, we've seen tremendous progress in the SENSR program as it moves closer toward fruition. You may have seen in the news that unauthorized drone incursions at London Gatwick and more recently Newark airport have caused massive disruptions to air travel at tremendous economic costs. A newfound urgency to address vulnerabilities has driven a surge in interest for our radar tile technology from a wide variety of customers. Vulnerabilities in airport security are one of the key underlying drivers of the sensor program as well as a host of other civil and public safety applications for drone protection near open air venues as well as public facilities.

接下來談全球與國土防衛。在過去90天，我們看到SENSR計畫在更接近落地方面取得巨大進展。你可能在新聞中看到，未經授權的無人機闖入倫敦蓋特威克機場，以及近期的紐瓦克機場，已對航空旅行造成大規模干擾並帶來巨大的經濟成本。因應弱點的迫切性提升，推動各式各樣客戶對我們雷達磁磚（radar tile）技術的興趣大幅增加。機場安防的弱點是感測器計畫的關鍵底層驅動因素之一，同時也帶動其他多種民用與公共安全應用，例如在露天場館及公共設施附近進行無人機防護。

The SENSR Joint Program Office will be hosting another Industry Day for vendors following October's RFI responses from major prime contractors, which featured MACOM's radar tiles prominently. While SENSR field deployment is still a couple of years out, final bids are expected to require full-scale preproduction builds, which we are ready to support in engineering and in manufacturing in the second half of 2019 and 2020.

SENSR聯合計畫辦公室將在10月主要主承包商提交RFI回覆後，為供應商再舉辦一次產業日；該等回覆中顯著呈現了MACOM的雷達磁磚。雖然SENSR的現場部署仍需再等幾年，但預期最終投標將要求全規模的量產前（preproduction）建置；我們已準備好在2019年下半年與2020年於工程與製造方面提供支援。

Likewise, private security radar installations may begin in earnest well ahead of SENSR in the field. After years of investment and development work, we're in the right place at the right time with a novel approach to provide unique system functionality. The world's leading radar customers and U.S. government agencies understand the value we're bringing to bear with scalable planar arrays better than anyone and are teaming with MACOM for precisely that reason. We view this global and homeland defense opportunity to be a strong domestic secular growth engine starting in 2019 and continuing for, arguably, decades to come.

同樣地，民間安防雷達的裝設可能會在SENSR於現場正式部署之前，就已開始大規模推進。經過多年的投資與研發工作，我們以創新方法在對的時間點站在對的位置，提供獨特的系統功能。全球領先的雷達客戶與美國政府機構比任何人都更了解我們以可擴展平面陣列所帶來的價值，因此正是基於這個原因與MACOM攜手合作。我們認為，這項全球與國土防衛的機會將自2019年起成為強勁的美國本土長期結構性成長引擎，並且可望持續（可以說）數十年之久。

Finally, that brings me to 5G Telecom. Since we last updated you on the November earnings call, it's become clear that the tide has turned in global telecom infrastructure spending. After service providers paused capital spending last year, they're now entering what we expect to be a strong 5-year cycle of global infrastructure investment in 5G. Services being are launched. Tenders are being awarded. Orders are materializing, and customers' short and long-range forecasts are now consistently exceeding our expectations.

最後，談到5G電信。自我們在11月的財報電話會議上向各位更新以來，已經很清楚全球電信基礎設施支出潮流已經轉向。在服務供應商去年暫緩資本支出之後，他們如今正進入我們預期將為期5年的強勁全球5G基礎設施投資週期。服務正在啟動。標案正在決標。訂單正在浮現，而客戶的短期與長期預測如今也持續高於我們的預期。

For telecom, it's déjà vu all over again. This is exactly the type of customer behavior I saw in the early stages of the 4G and 3G ramps 5 and 10 years ago. 5G is real, and it's happening this year on a global basis in applications ranging from sub-6 gigahertz microcell base stations to millimeter wave fixed wireless mesh networks to the optical backbone and tie it all together. I'm really looking forward to Mobile World Congress in a few weeks. It's been a few years since there's been this amount of anticipation before the show.

對電信而言，這一切彷彿歷史重演。這正是我在5年前與10年前3G與4G起飛初期所看到的客戶行為。5G是真實的，而且今年正以全球規模發生，應用範圍從6GHz以下微型蜂巢基地台，到毫米波固定無線網狀網路，再到光學骨幹網並將一切串聯起來。我非常期待幾週後的世界行動通訊大會（Mobile World Congress）。已經好幾年沒有在展會前出現如此高的期待感了。

Without a doubt, our time has come to realize our GaN on Silicon ambitions this year in 5G. Major base station OEMs understand they need wideband GaN performance with transformational cost structures and manufacturing capacity that we believe can only be supplied by a GaN on Silicon supply chain. Up until now, only LDMOS can meet requisite scale and cost structure, but GaN is needed for efficiency and gains to meet 5G range antenna range and energy efficiency in the field. MACOM GaN on Silicon uniquely provides it all: performance, costs and high-volume supply chain.

毫無疑問，今年是我們在5G領域實現「矽基氮化鎵（GaN on Silicon）」雄心的時刻。主要基地台OEM明白，他們需要具備寬頻GaN效能、具變革性的成本結構以及製造產能；而我們相信，這些只能由矽基GaN供應鏈提供。迄今為止，只有LDMOS能滿足所需的規模與成本結構，但為了在現場達成5G天線覆蓋範圍與能源效率所需的效率與增益，仍需要GaN。MACOM的矽基GaN具備獨特優勢，可同時提供：效能、成本與高產量供應鏈。

With the Infineon litigation now settled and MACOM's definitive ownership of the fundamental patents now in place, we've dramatically accelerated our operational plans with both customers and supply partners alike. Supply chain activity over the past 90 days has been virtually nonstop with our ultimate goal of ensuring capacities in place to achieve brand and preeminent share in a market that's expected to triple with 5G starting this year in 2019.

隨著與英飛凌（Infineon）的訴訟現已和解，且MACOM對核心基礎專利的明確所有權已確立，我們已大幅加速與客戶及供應夥伴的營運計畫。過去90天供應鏈活動幾乎未曾停歇，我們的最終目標是確保產能到位，以在預期自2019年起因5G而三倍成長的市場中，取得領先且具指標性的市占。

Less well understood is that GaN is only half of the equation for MACOM. We have a similar size of opportunity for AlGaAs and HMIC switches and varactors on the receive side of 5G. We've held a preeminent position for decades in markets like radars, sat comm and electronic warfare with these highly proprietary compound semi technologies. With the advent of 5G active antenna arrays and frequency bands from 2.6 to 39 gigahertz millimeter wave spectrum, AlGaAs and HMICs are now poised to play a pivotal role in 5G infrastructure. They offer the industry's lowest insertion loss, providing superior reception for microcell base stations and fixed wireless access points.

較少人理解的是，對MACOM而言，GaN只是方程式的一半。在5G接收端，我們在AlGaAs與HMIC開關及變容二極體（varactors）方面也有規模相當的機會。數十年來，我們憑藉這些高度專有的化合物半導體技術，在雷達、衛星通訊與電子戰等市場一直維持領先地位。隨著5G主動式天線陣列的興起，以及頻段從2.6GHz延伸至39GHz毫米波頻譜，AlGaAs與HMIC如今已蓄勢待發，將在5G基礎設施中扮演關鍵角色。它們提供業界最低的插入損耗，能為微型蜂巢基地台與固定無線接入點帶來更優異的接收表現。

We're in a position to help base station OEMs differentiate antenna performance in terms of coverage, link budget and energy efficiency, all key figures of merit to wireless carriers. Our portfolio of highly proprietary RF technologies can unlock major economic value in 5G antennas for OEMs and carriers alike in both sub-6 gigahertz mobile as well as fixed millimeter wave networks globally.

我們有能力協助基地台OEM在天線效能上形成差異化，涵蓋覆蓋範圍、鏈路預算與能源效率——這些都是無線電信商的關鍵衡量指標。我們高度專有的RF技術組合，能在全球6GHz以下行動網路以及固定毫米波網路中，為OEM與電信商的5G天線釋放重大的經濟價值。

This is all upside to our current business. MACOM has traditionally been a minor player in base station selling low-volume catalog products. All that changes in 5G. Design wins are already in place supporting major 5G network launches at some of the major carriers globally. We look forward to providing more detail and delivering on our vision in the months and quarters ahead.

這些都將為我們現有業務帶來上行空間。過去MACOM在基地台市場一向只是小型參與者，主要銷售低量的型錄產品。在5G時代，這一切都將改變。我們已取得設計導入（design wins），支援全球多家主要電信商的重大5G網路啟動。我們期待在未來幾個月與幾個季度提供更多細節，並實現我們的願景。

Last but not least, 5G comes with a significant deployment of fiber infrastructure not just in coherent Metro and backhaul networks but in NRZ, CWDM4 and PAM4, fronthaul and mid-haul links connecting the base stations to the fiber core. To be clear, the technology leadership we've established from cloud data centers extend directly to 5G, not just GaN and AlGaAs but indium phosphide lasers, drivers, TIAs, CDRs, L-PICs, PAM-4 PHYs, all of them.

最後但同樣重要的是，5G也伴隨著大規模的光纖基礎設施部署，不僅在相干（coherent）的都會網與回傳（backhaul）網路，也包括NRZ、CWDM4與PAM4的前傳（fronthaul）與中傳（mid-haul）鏈路，用以連接基地台與光纖核心網。明確地說，我們在雲端資料中心所建立的技術領先地位可直接延伸至5G，不僅是GaN與AlGaAs，還包括磷化銦雷射、驅動器、TIA、CDR、L-PIC、PAM-4 PHY——全部都涵蓋在內。

Two quarters ago, we reported orders for initial deployments of 5G-coherent optical networks, which we fulfilled as revenue last quarter. In fact, overall Metro/Long-haul is one of the bright spots within the current demand picture. We're seeing a healthy ramp in orders for our 32 and 64GBaud coherent drivers and TIAs to the point where order intake and customer forecasts are now consistently exceeding expectations. Overall, given the breadth and depth of opportunities we have in 5G networks from GaN, AlGaAs and indium phosphide compound semis to our coherent NRZ and PAM4 optical networking and active antenna technologies, you can understand why we're so excited that the global cycle of 5G telecom deployment is upon us.

兩個季度前，我們曾報告5G相干光網路初期部署的訂單，而我們已在上一季度將其轉為營收。事實上，在目前的需求態勢中，整體都會/長途（Metro/Long-haul）是少數亮點之一。我們看到32與64GBaud相干驅動器與TIA的訂單正健康爬升，訂單流入與客戶預測如今持續高於預期。總體而言，鑑於我們在5G網路中從GaN、AlGaAs與磷化銦等化合物半導體，到相干NRZ與PAM4光網路，以及主動式天線技術所涵蓋的機會廣度與深度，各位可以理解為何我們對全球5G電信部署週期的到來感到如此振奮。

To conclude, with today's macroeconomic backdrop of sluggish industrial and data center demand, tariffs, trade tensions, we're fortunate to be levered in multiple large and diverse growth opportunities underpinned by planned infrastructure build-outs that should help to provide catalysts for demand recovery in the latter half of 2019. We're approaching a crossover point where these secular growth opportunities can overshadow lingering trade-related disruptions.

總結而言，在當前總體經濟背景下，工業與資料中心需求疲弱、關稅與貿易緊張情勢仍在，我們很幸運能布局於多個龐大且多元的成長機會，並由既定的基礎設施建置計畫所支撐，這些應可在2019年下半年為需求復甦提供催化劑。我們正接近一個交叉點：這些長期結構性成長機會可望蓋過仍在延續的貿易相關干擾。

That brings me to guidance. As in previous quarters, we're taking it one quarter at a time, guiding based on customer backlog, order visibility and our ability to fulfill that demand. For the fiscal second quarter ending March 29, 2019, we expect revenue to be in the range of $134 million to $142 million. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be between 55% and 57% and adjusted earnings per share between $0.04 and $0.12 on an anticipated 66 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

接下來談財測。如同先前各季度，我們採取逐季應對的方式，依據客戶在手訂單（backlog）、訂單能見度以及我們履行需求的能力來提供指引。就截至2019年3月29日的會計年度第二季而言，我們預期營收將落在1.34億至1.42億美元之間。調整後毛利率預期為55%至57%，在預估完全稀釋後流通股數為6,600萬股的前提下，調整後每股盈餘預期介於0.04至0.12美元。

Our fiscal Q2 guide clearly reflects a confluence of a number of unfortunate developments impacting all 3 of our end markets and all geographies. We consider these to be short term and temporary in nature. At the same time, we're faced with a number of variable investments this quarter that we plan to follow through in support of critical customers and program ramps for the second half of the year.

我們對會計年度第二季的指引，清楚反映出多項不利因素同時發生，影響我們三個終端市場以及所有地區。我們認為這些影響屬於短期且暫時性的。同時，本季度我們也面臨若干可變動的投資項目，我們計畫持續投入，以支援關鍵客戶以及下半年各項專案的放量爬坡。

We've never been more optimistic about MACOM's growth prospects. We're uniquely positioned with a portfolio of disruptive technologies that are protected by strong and proven intellectual property. It's for this reason that we're a partner of choice with leading cloud service providers, telecom and networking equipment OEMs and major Defense Primes. This is a year of operational execution for MACOM in scaling our new products and technologies, servicing strong, secular demand in our growth markets. I look forward to updating you on the coming weeks and months on the great progress we're making in scaling production internally and with our manufacturing partners.

我們對 MACOM 的成長前景從未如此樂觀。我們憑藉一系列具顛覆性的技術組合，並由強大且經驗證的智慧財產權所保護，具備獨特的競爭定位。正因如此，我們成為領先雲端服務供應商、電信與網通設備 OEM，以及主要國防主承包商（Defense Primes）的首選合作夥伴。對 MACOM 而言，今年是營運執行之年，我們將擴大新產品與新技術的規模化，同時服務於成長市場中強勁且長期的結構性需求。我期待在未來幾週與幾個月向各位更新我們在內部以及與製造合作夥伴共同擴大產能方面所取得的重大進展。

Operator, you can now open the call to questions.

接線員，您現在可以開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

Understand it's kind of a challenging first half of the calendar year. You went through a number of drivers for the second half, including the datacom recovery, the launch of 5G both for optical backhaul as well as the GaN on Silicon. Just kind of wondering, as you look at those various opportunities, does one outshine the others? Or do they all sort of contribute pretty nicely? Just trying to think about what the biggest driver in the second half recovery could be.

我理解上半年（以曆年計）算是相當具挑戰性。你提到下半年有多項驅動因素，包括數據通訊的復甦、5G 的推出（涵蓋光學回程）以及矽基氮化鎵（GaN on Silicon）。我想請教，當你看這些不同的機會時，是否有某一項特別突出？還是它們都能相當不錯地共同貢獻？我只是想了解，下半年復甦最大的驅動力可能會是什麼。

That's a tough question to answer, Quinn. As much as the tide pulled out on us in the next -- in the front half of the year, I think it's all going to be coming back in the back half. One of the things that is now crystal clear is 5G across multiple parts of our portfolio is happening in a big way. In fact, I'll give you an example. In our Telecom business, the one big bright spot is Metro/Long-haul portfolio grew 7% sequential and looks like close to 20% the next quarter. Those were all initial 5G deployments. So 5G is going to be happening. Data center, we talked to the cloud guys. They're talking about burning off inventory within this quarter or next. So that should be coming back and looking like growth. And the industrial stuff is in a similar state. We're starting out at 4 quarters of 8% plus sequential growth. It looks like we got kind of a pause here in the third quarter, and that will be coming back. I think we did 40% growth in I&D last quarter year-on-year. So I think the second half of the year is actually going to be quite nice.

Quinn，這個問題很難回答。就像上半年潮水退去對我們不利一樣，我認為下半年會全面回流。現在非常明確的一點是：5G 正在我們產品組合的多個領域以很大的規模發生。事實上，我給你一個例子。在我們的電信業務中，一個很大的亮點是都會/長途（Metro/Long-haul）產品組合季增 7%，而且看起來下季接近 20%。這些都是初期的 5G 部署。所以 5G 一定會發生。至於資料中心，我們和雲端客戶談過。他們表示會在本季或下季把庫存消化掉。因此那邊應該會回來並呈現成長。工業相關也處於類似狀態。我們先前連續 4 個季度都有超過 8% 的季增。看起來第三季會有點暫停，之後會再回來。我想我們上一季在工業與國防（I&D）年增成長了 40%。所以我認為今年下半年其實會相當不錯。

Got it. And then just, Bob, you mentioned some expenses here in the first calendar quarter in support of programs launching in the second half of the calendar year. Should we think about OpEx maybe being in the near-term peak in margins to support the development of those programs and then as you get closer to launching those, those expenses tail off?

了解。另外，Bob，你提到在第一個曆年季度有一些費用，是為了支援下半年要推出的專案。我們是否可以把 OpEx 視為短期內的高峰、以支援這些專案的開發，然後隨著更接近推出時，這些費用會逐步下降？

Exactly, Quinn, we have some major tape-outs that are happening in our fiscal Q2. Now we forecasted those to hit our P&L in Q2. They could push. That would lower that, but the concept is right. This would be the peak of expenses.

沒錯，Quinn，我們在會計年度第二季（fiscal Q2）會有一些重大的流片（tape-outs）。我們原本預估這些會在第二季反映到損益表（P&L）。它們也可能延後。那樣會讓第二季的費用降低一些，但概念是對的。這會是費用的高峰。

And our next question comes from the line of Tim Savageaux with Northland.

下一個問題來自 Northland 的 Tim Savageaux。

I wanted to follow up on that Metro/Long-haul comment and kind of drill down a bit because that certainly is consistent with what we've been seeing across the rest of the ecosystem. In terms of the strengths, looking at your -- you did decline sequentially in telecom. Do we assume that PON or other markets were a driver there? And what sort of outlook would you have for the -- I think you just said Metro/Long-haul up 20% sequentially next quarter. I want to make sure I heard that right. And how do those dynamics work in terms of overall segment guidance for the March quarter?

我想追問你剛才對都會/長途（Metro/Long-haul）的評論，並深入一點，因為這確實與我們在生態系其他部分看到的情況一致。就強勁動能而言，從你們的表現來看——你們的電信業務其實是季減。我們是否可以假設 PON 或其他市場是造成下滑的因素？另外，對於展望——我想你剛才說下季都會/長途會季增 20%。我想確認我有沒有聽對。而這些動態在 3 月季度的整體部門指引上會如何反映？

Yes. As you know, Tim, we don't guide by segment. But I can give you a bit of color. The way I'd describe it is we just had further and further deteriorating visibility as the quarter proceeded. We had very low visibility right now. So it's hard to predict. It's the reason why we opened up our guidance range as well. And you're right, Metro/Long-haul being up, the other parts of telecom portfolio like PON, but some of the other telecom things that get classified as telecom also showed weakness. I would say normally going into Chinese New Year, visibility is low. It's exceptionally low right now, and a lot of that exposure is, frankly, China. So it's just hard to call, to be honest. The next quarter, it's hard to call. I think we have to see how a lot of geopolitical issues and trade and tariffs play out. Until that happens, it's going to -- I just don't -- I don't anticipate improving visibility.

是的。Tim，如你所知，我們不按部門提供指引。但我可以補充一些背景。我的描述方式是：隨著季度推進，我們的能見度持續惡化。我們目前的能見度非常低。所以很難預測。這也是我們把指引區間拉大的原因。你說得對，都會/長途在成長，但電信產品組合的其他部分，例如 PON，以及一些被歸類為電信的其他產品也顯示疲弱。我會說通常在農曆新年前，能見度就會偏低。但現在是異常地低，而其中很大一部分曝險坦白說是在中國。所以老實講，很難下定論。下一季也很難判斷。我想我們必須看看許多地緣政治議題、貿易與關稅會如何發展。在那之前，能見度會——我只是——我不預期能見度會改善。

Okay. And if I could follow up on the data center side. I assume that the inventory digestion we've seen a lot of data points in that regard thus far. On the IC side, I wonder if there's been any change to the trajectory of your ramp in 25-gig lasers or if that's been impacted by this kind of inventory situation as well.

好的。如果我可以再追問資料中心方面。我想我們目前已看到不少關於庫存去化的數據點。在 IC 端，我想了解你們 25G 雷射的爬坡軌跡是否有任何變化，或是否也受到這種庫存狀況的影響？

Yes, it absolutely is. Anytime you have new products ramp in the midst of a pause in inventory digestion, they're consuming inventory rather than buying new products. We're proceeding with all the customer qualifications. But frankly speaking, some of our early anticipated ramp for our lasers was customers based -- manufacturing in China, and it's just it's very hard to predict what's going to be going on. We saw the deteriorating visibility of order book. We reached out to the cloud customers, and they confirmed that they are absolutely sitting on inventory that they need to burn now in the next quarter or so. So I think they're sitting on the sidelines at this point waiting to see how the whole trade situation plays out before they get back into placing orders. That's the best intelligence we have at this time.

是的，絕對有影響。當你在庫存去化暫停期間推進新產品爬坡時，客戶會先消耗庫存，而不是購買新產品。我們仍在進行所有客戶認證（qualification）。但坦白說，我們原先預期雷射的部分早期爬坡，一些客戶是以中國製造為主，而目前很難預測接下來會發生什麼。我們看到訂單簿能見度惡化。我們也主動聯繫雲端客戶，他們確認目前確實有庫存，必須在接下來一季左右先消化掉。所以我認為他們此刻是在觀望，等整體貿易情勢明朗後，才會恢復下單。這是我們目前掌握到最好的資訊。

And our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Blayne Curtis。

This is Tom O'Malley on for Blayne Curtis. Just looking out into the March guidance, you guys gave some color on the different segments. You mentioned Industrial & Defense, some sluggishness there. And then you just talked about Data Center being a little slower. In terms of the vectors of those 3 businesses, could you try to help us get a picture of which one is down more than the other? I mean, obviously, you called out Industrial & Defense first, and there's been some nice growth there. But just giving us a better picture of how those business lines turn into margin.

我是 Tom O'Malley，代替 Blayne Curtis 提問。就 3 月季度的指引來看，你們對不同部門提供了一些說明。你提到工業與國防（Industrial & Defense）那邊有些疲弱。然後你也剛談到資料中心稍微慢一些。就這三個業務的走勢而言，你們能否協助我們更清楚地了解哪一個下滑得比另外的更多？我的意思是，你們先點出工業與國防，而那邊其實也有不錯的成長。但希望你們能更清楚地說明，這些業務線如何轉化為毛利率/利潤率表現。

I think -- appreciate the question. You get to the issues of the precision of our forecasting ability. It's hard to really call one down stronger than the others. They're all down for distinctly different reasons. So it's hard to call which one will be furthest. I would say the I&D right now is in an interesting situation. They're coming off of 4 very strong quarters of sequential growth, 8%-plus. We've seen -- sluggishness is the right word. Some of our industrial customers for like our power transistors, that those orders kind of dried up. And now we're kind of exposed, we have that impact of the export denial for the aerospace customers. That's kind of impacting the down quarter. That said, we've actually seen the last few weeks uptake in our diode business in MMICs in terms of order intake. So there's signs of life, but it's too close to call at this point. The other stuff, I mean, it's just a matter of poor visibility, to be honest. So it's hard to really predict with a degree of precision.

我想——感謝你的提問。你提到的是我們預測能力精準度的問題。很難真的說哪一個下滑得比其他更強。它們都是因為截然不同的原因而下滑。所以很難判斷哪一個會跌得最深。我會說 I&D 目前處於一個很有意思的狀況。他們剛經歷連續 4 個非常強勁的季度成長，季增超過 8%。我們看到——「遲滯」是比較貼切的詞。我們一些工業客戶，例如使用我們功率電晶體的客戶，那些訂單某種程度上就乾掉了。而現在我們有點暴露在外，還受到對航太客戶出口禁令的影響。這在某種程度上影響了這個下滑的季度。話雖如此，過去幾週我們其實看到在 MMIC 的二極體業務上，從接單量來看有回升。所以有一些復甦跡象，但目前還很難下定論。其他部分，老實說，就是能見度很差的問題。所以很難以精準的程度去做預測。

Great. That's fair enough. And then just a little more color. You guys talked about your PAM4 product kind of layering in, in the second half of this year. Can you just talk about how your progress is with that product and where you think you're going to win versus some of the competition? Obviously, there's a couple of guys out there today with solutions. What makes you guys win versus those existing suppliers?

很好。這樣說也合理。再請你多補充一點。你們提到 PAM4 產品會在今年下半年逐步導入。能否談談你們在該產品上的進展，以及你們認為相較於一些競爭對手會在哪些地方勝出？顯然目前市場上已經有幾家提供解決方案。你們相較於這些既有供應商，勝出的關鍵是什麼？

Yes. So very good question. I think one thing that I would point out that I don't think is well understood is we're purely a semiconductor component supplier. We don't supply transceivers. So where the money is this year very clearly and where the first adoption mainstream semiconductor volumes are is in 100-gig. So we are fixated on owning a very strong share position in 100-gig. Frankly, the guys who matter in terms of network OEMs, module guys and so on in what is currently a highly consolidating supply chain into data centers, we've got a fabulous position. So that's where our focus is. I think there's some confusion where we get lumped in with other people who are fixated on 400-gig, 400-gig for the next 2, 3 years until you get to Tomahawk 4 time frame. 20-gig -- 400-gig is really a transceiver business. You can have a nice transceiver business at that level. But frankly, the customer forecast for the next 2, 3 years, we're not fixated on 400-gig. There are other things that we're doing in 400-gig that makes sense in the transceiver business, but we are fixated on ramping 100-gig, and that is unequivocally happening in the second half of the year.

是的。這是個非常好的問題。我想先指出一點，很多人可能沒有充分理解：我們純粹是半導體元件供應商。我們不供應收發器（transceivers）。因此，今年很明顯「錢在哪裡」，以及第一波主流採用、半導體出貨量放大的地方，是在 100G。所以我們專注於在 100G 取得非常強的市占地位。坦白說，就目前正快速整併、供應鏈導向資料中心的網通 OEM、模組廠等關鍵客戶而言，我們的地位非常好。所以這就是我們的重點。我認為有些混淆在於，我們常被和其他一些把重心放在 400G 的公司混為一談——在接下來 2、3 年，直到 Tomahawk 4 的時間點之前，他們都在盯著 400G。400G 本質上真的是收發器的生意。在那個層級你可以做出不錯的收發器業務。但坦白說，依客戶對未來 2、3 年的預測，我們並不把重心放在 400G。我們在 400G 也有一些事情在做，對收發器業務而言是合理的，但我們的重心是把 100G 拉升，而這件事毫無疑問會在今年下半年發生。

Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

In your prepared remarks, you talked a bit about GaN on Silicon. I'm curious if you could kind of walk through where you are, provide an update on GaN activity. And I guess given the foundry arrangement, can you kind of walk through how we should be thinking about revenue opportunity and gross margin profile near term?

在你們事先準備的發言中，你們稍微談到矽基氮化鎵（GaN on Silicon）。我想請你們帶我們走一遍目前進度，更新一下 GaN 的相關活動。另外，考量到代工（foundry）安排，能否談談我們在短期內應如何看待營收機會與毛利率輪廓？

Yes. So it's like a 3 or 4 related question. So on the GaN on Silicon opportunity, as I reported last quarter, when we recovered the patents and got them assigned back probably is more accurate description from Infineon, some of the major customers opened up with the demand forecast. And we're very pleasantly surprised. From a dollar content standpoint, it's 3x bigger than the opportunity in the 3G and 4G cycles, which is very encouraging. It's happening this year. We are active with the programs that are meaningful in terms of ramping that growth. And it's 100% right now an operational scaling issue in getting volume wafer supply. We're talking about wafer units, which are in excess of the industry supply of LDMOS in the previous cycle. When I say industry supply, in my day, it was NXP, Infineon and Freescale, 3 very large volumes suppliers. And we're sitting in a position where we need to be able to enable a supply chain that is greater wafer supply than those. So it's frankly a very challenging operational issue. One of the subtleties that I think is lost on many people is if you have fundamental patents, then you implicitly have the responsibility to line up the supply chain. So it's been the focus of our efforts over the past quarter, and I look forward to reporting on a lot of that progress in the coming weeks and months.

好的。這其實是 3 到 4 個相關的問題。關於矽基氮化鎵（GaN on Silicon）的機會，如同我上季所報告的，當我們把專利收回並重新完成權利歸屬——更精確地說，是從英飛凌（Infineon）那邊把專利重新轉回來——一些主要客戶就開始提出需求預測。而我們感到非常驚喜。以單機價值（dollar content）來看，這個機會是 3G 與 4G 週期機會的 3 倍，這非常令人鼓舞。而且今年就會發生。我們正積極參與那些對拉升成長具有意義的專案。目前 100% 是營運擴產的問題，也就是要取得足夠的晶圓供應量。我們談的是晶圓片數量，已經超過上一個週期產業對 LDMOS 的供應量。我說的產業供應量，以我那時候來看，是 NXP、Infineon 和 Freescale 這三家出貨量非常大的供應商。而我們現在所處的位置是：我們必須能夠建立一條供應鏈，其晶圓供應量要比他們還大。所以坦白說，這是一個非常具挑戰性的營運問題。我認為很多人忽略的一個細節是：如果你擁有基礎性專利，那你也就隱含承擔了把供應鏈配置到位的責任。因此，這一直是我們過去一季努力的重點，我也期待在接下來幾週與幾個月，向大家報告這方面的許多進展。

Just a follow-up to Bob. How should we think about OpEx trajectory into June and beyond? And you did speak to perhaps, I guess, some onetime costs maybe moving to June from March. But just would love to hear high level how to kind of cascade OpEx through the year for you guys.

我想針對 Bob 再追問一下。我們應該如何看待 6 月以及之後的營業費用（OpEx）走勢？你也提到可能有一些一次性成本從 3 月移到 6 月。但我想聽聽你們在高層次上，如何把全年 OpEx 的節奏做一個拆解。

Thank you, C.J., for the opportunity. So we entered, as we talked about, peak as we have some new products and mass costs that are absorbed and we're forecasting to be complete in our fiscal second quarter that pushes off into Q3. That impacts the level of EPS and why we have a bit of a wider guidance than traditionally for EPS. But that will also carry over to fiscal Q3 would be -- probably have a lot more visibility for those to come through in Q2. So the peak of operating expenses because we're expensing the mask sets is in the range of $64 million. And that will come down, again, the timing of which depends on how close we get to the $64 million in Q2 versus pushing some out into Q3. But we will continue to see operating expenses come down from that peak level of $64 million forecasted or implied at the guidance we've given.

謝謝你，C.J.，給我們這個機會。如同我們所談到的，我們目前處於高峰期，因為有一些新產品以及量產的光罩（mask）成本需要吸收；我們原本預期在我們的會計年度第二季完成，但現在延後到第三季。這會影響 EPS 的水準，也解釋了為什麼我們對 EPS 的指引區間比以往稍微更寬。但這也會延續到會計年度第三季——我們大概會在第二季對這些項目有更高的能見度，讓它們逐步反映出來。因此，因為我們將光罩組（mask sets）費用化，營業費用的高峰大約在 6,400 萬美元的區間。之後會下降；當然，下降的時間點取決於我們在第二季實際接近 6,400 萬美元的程度，或是有部分延後到第三季。但我們會持續看到營業費用從這個 6,400 萬美元的高峰（依我們給出的指引所預估或隱含）往下走。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

（接線員指示）下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

John, a question on the Data Center business. I do appreciate the visibility is low there. But as we think about the inventory digestion, do you think that continues in the June quarter? Or do you get a sense that would kind of be more of the stabilization quarter?

John，關於資料中心業務有個問題。我確實理解那邊的能見度很低。但當我們思考庫存去化時，你認為這種情況會延續到 6 月季度嗎？還是你覺得那會比較像是一個趨於穩定的季度？

Well, I'll give you the exact feedback. Different cloud customers started out burning off inventory this quarter versus next quarter. So I think it's different between the 2. I think we have a 2-quarter issue on our hands. Whether this is the bottom or the June quarter's bottom remains to be seen. I would say the visibility is just horrible at this point. So it's hard to call. I mean, to be honest, it's just hard to call. So when they start materializing, what I would hope is that when the trade issues finally get ironed out that there might be some movement. People seem to be talking a lot and really not making a lot of decisions. I think people are just sitting on the sidelines, waiting, figuring out who their long-term supply chains are. I think there's a lot of different ways that can go depending on how the trade issue plays out.

好，我給你最直接的回饋。不同的雲端客戶在本季開始消化庫存，而不是等到下季。所以我認為兩者之間的情況不一樣。我覺得我們面臨的是一個為期兩季的問題。至於這是不是谷底，或是 6 月季度才是谷底，還有待觀察。我會說目前的能見度真的非常糟。所以很難判斷。坦白說，真的很難判斷。所以當它們開始顯現時，我希望的是，當貿易問題終於被理順之後，可能會有一些動作。大家似乎講得很多，但真正做決策的卻不多。我覺得大家都在觀望，等待，並在釐清他們長期的供應鏈會是什麼。我認為這件事會有很多種走向，取決於貿易問題最後如何發展。

That's fair. And then my follow-up to Bob, Bob, do you have a CapEx forecast for this fiscal year? And are you kind of done now with some of the bigger CapEx events?

這樣說合理。接著我想追問 Bob：Bob，你對本會計年度的資本支出（CapEx）有預測嗎？你們現在是否大致已經完成了一些較大型的資本支出事項？

Tore, that's a good question. Thank you. So we're in the $60 million range approximately to be spent for the balance of the year. As you may remember, I've talked about a commitment we've made with ST that's getting finalized. That is in the range of about $23 million. That's influencing that amount of spend for the CapEx for the year. A portion of that should begin in this quarter. It's not all going to happen in one check, so to speak. It will happen over a couple of quarters here in Q2 and Q3, it's probably finished. But that enables and is critical to enhance wafer production to the levels to meet not only the balance of fiscal -- or our calendar '19 but importantly for the ramp in 2000 of wafer requirements. We're working with ST very closely on that, as we talked about. So that is an important and critical investment. We have some others as well as we go through that we're not necessarily itemizing. And I think our model is 5% of revenues. And I think if we get into next year with improved revenue, we'll be back into that model target range of 5% of revenues for fiscal 220 -- excuse me, fiscal 2020.

Tore，這是個好問題。謝謝。所以今年剩餘期間大約會支出在 6,000 萬美元左右。如你所記得，我曾談到我們對 ST 所做的一項承諾，目前正在定案中。那筆金額大約在 2,300 萬美元左右。這也影響了今年資本支出金額的水準。其中一部分應該會在本季開始。不會說一次就開一張支票全部付清。它會在接下來幾個季度發生，大概在 Q2 和 Q3 之間完成。但這項投資能夠、且對於提升晶圓產能至所需水準至關重要，不僅是為了本會計年度剩餘期間——或我們 2019 年曆年——更重要的是為了 2000 年晶圓需求爬坡。我們正如先前所說，與 ST 非常密切地合作。所以這是一項重要且關鍵的投資。此外我們還有一些其他項目在推進，但不一定逐一列出。而且我認為我們的模型是營收的 5%。我想如果明年營收改善，我們會回到該模型的目標區間，也就是 220 會計年度——抱歉，是 2020 會計年度——營收的 5%。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Mark Delaney。

This is Timothy Sweetnam on for Mark. And maybe sticking with the cash flow dynamics, free cash flow was negative in the quarter, and this was due in part to timing impacts for working capital items that the company talked about. I was wondering if you could help us understand how we should think about the free cash flow dynamics for this current quarter.

我是代替 Mark 的 Timothy Sweetnam。或許延續現金流的動態來問：本季自由現金流為負，部分原因是公司提到的營運資金項目時點影響。我想請你們協助我們理解，對於本季（當前季度）的自由現金流動態應該如何看待。

So excellent question. There's very little, as I just mentioned, the timing of the ST investment and the CapEx there, $23 million. It's possible that goes through at one time and not a CapEx as we're still negotiating the characterization of that, but it's going the -- money is going to buy equipment in the fab in Sicily. So we will be -- we assume that full $23 million is expended in the quarter. We will be about $10 million to $12 million negative cash flow in fiscal Q2. And with the 60 against a number there for the year, we'll be cash flow positive. I'm not giving you the number at the moment, but for the year, we will be free cash flow positive.

這是個非常好的問題。如我剛提到的，主要就是 ST 投資與相關資本支出的時點，2,300 萬美元。也有可能那筆款項會一次性支付，且不一定被歸類為資本支出，因為我們仍在協商其會計認定，但這筆錢將用於購買西西里晶圓廠的設備。因此我們會——我們假設本季會把完整的 2,300 萬美元支出掉。我們在會計年度 Q2 的現金流大約會是負 1,000 萬到 1,200 萬美元。而以全年來看，在那個 6,000 萬的年度金額對照之下，我們會是現金流為正。我現在不提供具體數字，但就全年而言，我們的自由現金流會是正的。

That's helpful. And then MACOM talked about its analog products such as its FEMs being well suited for 5G, and the company mentioned positive momentum there. Can you help us understand the content opportunity in that 5G base stations specifically from your FEM products and what the company believes MACOM's market share is?

這很有幫助。接著 MACOM 提到其類比產品（例如 FEM）非常適合 5G，公司也提到那方面有正向動能。你能否協助我們理解，在 5G 基地台方面，特別是你們的 FEM 產品所帶來的內容（content）機會，以及公司認為 MACOM 的市占率大概是多少？

Sure. So there's 2 sides that we tend to refer to defense as receive side. So we're talking about AlGaAs and HMIC as our technology that go into that. Benefit is insertion loss, meaning better receptivity for the antenna. And there's really 3 paradigms, I would say. There's the sub-6 gigahertz high-power base stations. They may be 5G frequency bands, but they tend to be more non-massive MIMO but a MIMO configuration. Then there is massive MIMO, which is lower power per element but higher volume. And then the third is millimeter wave. We actually have, arguably, even more exciting opportunity in millimeter wave that we'll be talking about in the coming weeks, maybe in 2 or 3, at Mobile World Congress. So all 3 of those are in great positions. Again, the base station customers are actively sponsoring us. Very, very favorable comments in terms of what that low insertion loss provides them in terms of antenna performance. It basically improves the range of the antenna. And the share position, it's early days yet. We're not ramped into volume, but we are fairly confident in all 3 of those, we're going to have what I aspire to, which I call preeminent share position #1. But we're going to see where the share is captured in terms of which customers capture which share, but we've got a great position developing.

當然。我們通常會把國防那一側稱為接收端（receive side）。所以我們談的是導入其中的 AlGaAs 與 HMIC 這些技術。其優勢在於插入損耗（insertion loss），也就是天線有更好的接收能力。我會說大致有三種典範。第一種是 6GHz 以下的高功率基地台。它們可能是 5G 頻段，但通常不是大規模 MIMO，而是一般的 MIMO 配置。第二種是大規模 MIMO，每個單元功率較低，但出貨量更大。第三種是毫米波。其實我們在毫米波方面有、可以說更令人振奮的機會；我們會在接下來幾週，也許兩到三週後，在世界行動通訊大會（Mobile World Congress）上談更多。所以這三個領域我們都處於非常有利的位置。再說一次，基地台客戶正積極贊助我們。他們對於低插入損耗能為天線效能帶來的提升，給了非常、非常正面的回饋。基本上它能提升天線的覆蓋距離。至於市占位置，目前還算早期。我們尚未進入大量出貨爬坡，但我們對這三個領域都相當有信心，會取得我所期望、我稱之為「領先的第一名市占」的地位。不過我們還要看最終市占如何被取得——也就是哪些客戶拿到哪些份額——但我們正在建立非常好的位置。

Our next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum.

下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Richard Shannon。

Maybe a question, John, on the data center side. You've talked for a number of quarters about your opportunity in developing transceiver design. I think you had, I guess we'll call it, a license a couple of quarters ago. Just want to get an update of what's going on with that customer and your success with any other follow-on customers.

John，或許問一個關於資料中心端的問題。你們已經談了好幾個季度，提到你們在開發收發器（transceiver）設計方面的機會。我記得你們在幾個季度前拿到一個——姑且稱之為——授權（license）。想請你更新一下那位客戶目前的進展，以及你們在其他後續客戶上的成功情況。

Yes, I would say I'm reluctant to talk about specific customers and telegraph exactly what their business is doing. But I would say our overall solutions program reference designs for starting the CWDM but moving on to PAM4 has very strong momentum in terms of enabling customers. One of the issues that we're trying to navigate is some of those early customers are based in China and are subject to some of these uncertainties in terms of what share they're going to be able to capture supplying out of China. But we're now developing. Latest engagements are actually outside of China. So there's nothing that's China-specific other than the fact that if you're going for a high-volume, low-cost manufacturing, there's a gravitational pull into China. Now there's gravitational pull outside of China if the tariffs get implemented. So that's part of the whole complexity that I was referring to in terms of lack of visibility. It has nothing to do with our model of enabling transceiver guys. It's just -- it's just a lack of visibility in terms of geopolitical issues in that overall data center supply chain.

是的，我會說我不太願意談論特定客戶，並且精確透露他們的業務正在做什麼。但我會說，我們整體解決方案計畫的參考設計——從啟動 CWDM 到後續轉向 PAM4——在賦能客戶方面動能非常強。我們正試圖因應的一個問題是，其中一些早期客戶位於中國，並且在他們能夠透過中國供應所能取得的市佔份額方面，面臨一些不確定性。但我們現在正在開發。最新的合作接洽其實是在中國以外。所以除了如果你追求高產量、低成本製造，會有一股「引力」把你拉向中國之外，並沒有任何特別針對中國的因素。如果關稅被實施，那麼也會有一股引力把製造拉向中國以外。因此，這就是我所提到的、在能見度不足方面的整體複雜性的一部分。這與我們賦能收發器廠商的模式無關。只是——只是就整體資料中心供應鏈中的地緣政治議題而言，缺乏能見度而已。

Okay. That's fair enough. My follow-on question regarding GaN deployments. In response to a prior question, you talked about the difficulty and complexity of building up the supply chain. Maybe if you can help us understand kind of what are the long pulls in terms of making that happen and how much of that is under your control versus not and whether the complexities of geopolitical situation have an impact there as well.

好的。這樣說也合理。我接續的問題是關於 GaN 的部署。在回應先前的一個問題時，你談到建立供應鏈的困難與複雜性。也許你可以幫助我們理解，要促成這件事的關鍵長週期環節是什麼、其中有多少是在你們可控範圍內、多少不在，以及地緣政治局勢的複雜性是否也會在那裡產生影響。

From a supply chain standpoint, absolutely not -- arguably, the fact that we're partnered with ST, a global manufacturer with a footprint outside of U.S., is probably a favor -- unequivocally a favorable thing to our Chinese customers. If you refer to the geopolitical issue, I would say when we say totally under our control, well, we're in very close partnership with -- relationship with the ST executive team that has never been stronger. I wouldn't say that's under our control. Certainly, the enthusiasm, I think, that you'll hear from ST reflects our own enthusiasm to actually have the opportunity to introduce them some of the big league customers. And I think they were very pleased with what they heard in terms of what the demand profile is. But at this point, I would describe that situation has nothing to do with demand. It has everything to do with getting this equipment that Bob referred to up, qualified and producing wafers in very high volume. And it's not an entire production line, but there's a couple of steps that are GaN-specific, semi-specific, dropping right into the existing footprint in their factories. So it's not like factories have to be built. But it is a significant operational challenge. But similar to my experience working at NXP, ST is a world-class semiconductor manufacturer.

從供應鏈的角度來看，絕對不會——甚至可以說，我們與 ST 合作；ST 是一家在美國以外也有佈局的全球製造商，這反而可能是一個助力——毫無疑問，對我們的中國客戶而言是有利的。如果你提到地緣政治議題，我會說，當我們說「完全在我們掌控之下」時，嗯，我們與 ST 的高層管理團隊保持非常緊密的合作——彼此關係從未如此強健。我不會說那是在我們掌控之下。當然，我想你從 ST 那邊聽到的熱情，反映了我們自身的熱情——能有機會把一些一線大客戶介紹給他們。而且我認為，他們對於所聽到的需求輪廓（demand profile）非常滿意。但在此刻，我會形容這個情況與需求無關。它完全關乎把 Bob 提到的那些設備建置起來、完成認證，並以非常高的產量生產晶圓。這不是一整條生產線，但有幾個步驟是 GaN 特有或半特有的，直接嵌入他們工廠既有的產線佈局中。所以並不是說必須新建工廠。但這確實是一項重大的營運挑戰。不過，類似於我在 NXP 的工作經驗，ST 是世界級的半導體製造商。

Richard, I haven't said this before in the discussions around the ST about capital expenditures, but in mind and in timing with our investment, STMicro is making a substantially larger investment. So this is a partnership in essence coming together for the CapEx. But this is a multiyear commitment on the part of STMicro to this business.

Richard，我以前在與 ST 討論資本支出時沒有提過這點，但就我的理解以及與我們投資的時點相配合，STMicro 正在進行規模大得多的投資。所以本質上，這是一個在資本支出（CapEx）上共同投入的合作夥伴關係。但這也是 STMicro 對這項業務做出的多年期承諾。

And the cash outlay for that GAN-specific equipment is greater on their side.

而且針對那些 GaN 專用設備的現金支出，在他們那一側更高。

Much greater on their side.

高得多，在他們那一側。

To be clear, it's not like we're footing the bill alone. So yes, I mean, it's good old-fashioned scaling semiconductor wafer manufacturing at this point.

說清楚一點，並不是我們單獨在買單。所以是的，我的意思是，到目前為止，這就是很傳統的半導體晶圓製造擴產（scale-up）。

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to John Croteau for closing remarks.

謝謝。我這邊目前顯示沒有其他問題。我現在想把電話交回給 John Croteau 做結語。

Very good. Thank you. Before closing out today's call, I'd like to mention several upcoming investor events and trade shows that will be attending. First, we'll be at the Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference on February 12 in San Francisco; then over to the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on February 25 and 26, where we'll be hosting a group event for investors and analysts at 2 p.m. on Monday, February 25 and also hosting one-on-one meetings. Finally, we'll be attending OFC in San Diego on March 5 and 6 and will be hosting one-on-one meetings there as well. If you'd like to arrange a meeting at any of these events, please email us at ir@macom.com. That concludes today's remarks. Operator, you may now disconnect the call.

很好。謝謝。在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想提幾個我們將參加的投資人活動與展會。首先，我們將於 2 月 12 日在舊金山參加高盛科技與網際網路大會（Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference）；接著在 2 月 25 日與 26 日前往巴塞隆納參加世界行動通訊大會（Mobile World Congress），屆時我們將於 2 月 25 日（週一）下午 2 點為投資人與分析師舉辦一場團體活動，並且也會安排一對一會議。最後，我們將於 3 月 5 日與 6 日在聖地牙哥參加 OFC，並同樣會在那裡安排一對一會議。如果你希望在上述任何活動安排會面，請寄電子郵件至 ir@macom.com。以上為今天的結語。接線員，您現在可以中斷通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

各位女士、先生，感謝您參與今天的會議。本節目至此結束。各位現在可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。