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Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Vail Resorts fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions).
下午好,歡迎參加 Vail Resorts 2026 財政年度第四季及全年年終財報電話會議。今天的會議將進行錄音。(接線員指示)。
I will now turn the call over to Connie Wang, Vice President of Investor Relations at Vail Resorts. You may begin.
現在我將把電話交給 Vail Resorts 投資人關係副總裁 Connie Wang。您可以開始了。
Connie Wang - Vice President, Investor Relations
Connie Wang - Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Vail Resorts fiscal 2026 fourth quarter earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Rob Katz, our Chief Executive Officer; and Angela Korch, our Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝,接線員。各位下午好,歡迎參加 Vail Resorts 2026 財政年度第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席電話會議的有我們的執行長 Rob Katz,以及我們的財務長 Angela Korch。
Before we begin, let me remind you that some information provided during this call may include forward-looking statements that are based on certain assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties as described in our annual report on Form 10-K, and actual future results may vary materially. Forward-looking statements in our press release issued this afternoon, along with our remarks on this call, are made as of today, September 28, 2026, and we undertake no duty to update them as actual events unfold.
在開始之前,提醒各位,本次電話會議中提供的部分資訊可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述係基於若干假設,並受我們於 Form 10-K 年報中所述之多項風險與不確定性影響,實際未來結果可能與之有重大差異。我們今天下午發布之新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述,以及本次電話會議中的發言,均以今日(2026 年 9 月 28 日)為準;隨著實際事件發展,我們不承擔更新之義務。
Today's remarks also include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures are provided in the tables included with our press release which, along with our annual report on Form 10-K, were filed this afternoon with the SEC and are also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vailresorts.com.
今天的發言亦包含若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些指標的調節表已載於我們新聞稿所附表格中;該新聞稿與我們的 Form 10-K 年報已於今天下午向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交,亦可於我們網站 www.vailresorts.com 的投資人關係專區查閱。
I would now like to turn the call over to Rob for opening remarks.
接下來我想把電話交給 Rob,請他做開場致詞。
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Connie. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call. Looking back at fiscal 2026, while it was an exceptionally challenging weather year, it also demonstrated the resilience of our business model that was intentionally built over time.
謝謝你,Connie。各位下午好,感謝各位參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。回顧 2026 財政年度,雖然這是一個天候極具挑戰的一年,但也展現了我們多年來有意打造之商業模式的韌性。
In particular, our advanced commitment strategy and resource efficiency transformation plan delivered meaningful stability that enabled us to stay focused on our long-term objectives. The year also underscored the value of the investments we've made in our people, operations and the guest experience.
特別是,我們的提前承諾策略與資源效率轉型計畫帶來了顯著的穩定性,使我們得以持續聚焦於長期目標。這一年也凸顯了我們在人才、營運與旅客體驗方面投資的價值。
Even in a difficult weather environment, we achieved record guest satisfaction scores and strong employee engagement and retention, demonstrating the importance of the investments we've made in talent and strong execution across the business. That said, we recognize that our stock price performance has been disappointing over the last couple of years, and the Board and company are not standing still.
即便在艱困的天候環境下,我們仍創下旅客滿意度分數新高,並維持強勁的員工投入度與留任率,顯示我們在人才上的投資以及全公司強力執行的重要性。不過,我們也認知到過去幾年股價表現令人失望,董事會與公司並未停滯不前。
Over the past 18 months, we have accelerated the pace of change across the organization as we strengthened our leadership team with a new CEO and Chief Revenue Officer, added a new board member with extensive hospitality experience, revamped our marketing approach, including increasing marketing spend, adjusting channel mix, elevating resort branding and messaging and optimizing products and pricing.
過去 18 個月,我們加速推動組織變革:以新任執行長與首席營收長強化領導團隊;新增一位具豐富旅宿業經驗的新董事;並重塑行銷作法,包括提高行銷支出、調整通路組合、提升度假村品牌與訊息傳遞,以及優化產品與定價。
We also expanded our resource efficiency transformation program by $30 million and launched a new company-wide guest-focused growth strategy, Epic Experience. The actions we've taken are grounded in a clear view of where we can improve and have the greatest opportunity to strengthen the business and drive strong competitive differentiation.
我們也將資源效率轉型計畫擴大 3,000 萬美元,並推出全公司以旅客為核心的全新成長策略 Epic Experience。我們所採取的行動,建立在對可改善之處的清晰判斷之上,並聚焦於最能強化業務、推動強勁競爭差異化的機會。
We have moved with urgency but while remaining disciplined, very mindful that in an operationally driven company with over 50,000 team members, speed has to be balanced with executional excellence to ensure we are building a great company for the long term. Our focus remains on delivering on these priorities and demonstrating their value through sustained improvement in financial performance.
我們以高度急迫感推進,同時保持紀律;也非常清楚在一家以營運驅動、擁有超過 50,000 名團隊成員的公司中,速度必須與卓越執行取得平衡,才能確保我們為長期打造一家卓越的公司。我們仍聚焦於落實這些優先事項,並透過財務表現的持續改善來展現其價值。
While many of these initiatives are in the early stages, we're encouraged by the progress we're seeing across the business. In marketing, our changes in media strategy heading into last winter helped improve pass sales trends [post-Labor Day] by approximately 5 points compared to the earlier selling period. During the past season, we made changes to our products and pricing across lift tickets with the introduction of Epic Friend and super advanced lift ticket pricing, along with targeted pricing actions at certain resorts and time periods.
雖然其中許多計畫仍處於早期階段,但我們對於在全公司看到的進展感到鼓舞。在行銷方面,我們在去年冬季前調整媒體策略,使得通行證銷售趨勢在[勞動節後]相較於更早的銷售期間約改善 5 個百分點。在過去一個雪季,我們在纜車票產品與定價上做出調整,推出 Epic Friend 與超提前購票定價(super advanced lift ticket pricing),並在特定度假村與特定期間採取具針對性的定價措施。
As mentioned on the last call, those new products and strategies had strong results despite the weather, and we outperformed the industry in lift ticket visitation. With all of these changes to our marketing approach, we also benefited from increases in unaided brand awareness from destination guests for our top resorts.
如同上次電話會議所提到,儘管天候不佳,這些新產品與策略仍取得強勁成果,我們在纜車票到訪人次方面的表現優於整體產業。隨著行銷作法的各項調整,我們也受惠於目的地旅客對我們主要度假村的「非提示品牌認知度」(unaided brand awareness)提升。
Heading into this upcoming winter season, while pass sales remained down to prior year during this selling period, third-party data indicates we continue to outperform the broader industry, even more so on comparable unlimited products.
展望即將到來的冬季雪季,雖然在本銷售期間通行證銷售仍較去年同期下滑,但第三方數據顯示,我們仍持續優於整體產業,且在可比的無限次(unlimited)產品上更為明顯。
While we're clearly not satisfied with any decline in pass sales, this is not necessarily surprising given the severity of the conditions we experienced this past season and the massive growth we saw in pass sales in the previous five years, especially in our frequency products, which continue to see the largest declines to date in our least committed pass holder group.
雖然我們顯然不滿意通行證銷售的任何下滑,但考量到上個雪季我們經歷的嚴峻條件,以及前五年通行證銷售的大幅成長,這並不令人意外;尤其是我們的高頻使用產品(frequency products),迄今仍出現最大幅度的下滑,且主要集中在承諾度最低的通行證持有人族群。
Angela will discuss the results in more detail, but we do believe that a portion of the decline is likely due to delayed decision-making rather than reduced overall intent to ski next season. This creates an opportunity for potential improvements for pass sales in the final selling season and/or ultimately, through in-season lift ticket purchases next year.
Angela 將更詳細說明結果,但我們確實認為,下滑的一部分可能源於決策延後,而非整體對下個雪季滑雪意願的降低。這為我們在最後銷售季通行證銷售可能改善創造了機會,並且/或者最終在明年雪季期間透過纜車票購買來反映。
Based on the historical US ski market data, visitation typically recovers quickly following a season with poor conditions when the following year has normal conditions, and we are positioned well to capture that recovery given the breadth of our owned and operated network and our ability to market across that network through our pass and lift ticket products. That said, last season was a true anomaly and it certainly creates risk heading into next season.
根據美國滑雪市場的歷史數據,在某一雪季條件不佳之後,若隔年回到正常條件,到訪人次通常會快速回升;憑藉我們自有與營運網絡的廣度,以及透過通行證與纜車票產品在該網絡進行行銷的能力,我們具備良好條件以掌握這波復甦。不過,上個雪季確實屬於真正的異常情況,這也無疑為下一個雪季帶來風險。
In addition to the marketing changes discussed, we are also making progress across our resource efficiency transformation plan and our Epic Experience growth strategy. Starting with the resource efficiency transformation plan, we remain on track to exceed our original $100 million target of annual savings and announced an additional $30 million of identified technology-related efficiencies that we expect to realize by fiscal 2028.
除了前述行銷調整外,我們在資源效率轉型計畫與 Epic Experience 成長策略方面也持續取得進展。先談資源效率轉型計畫,我們仍按計畫進行,有望超越原先每年節省 1 億美元的目標,並宣布另外辨識出 3,000 萬美元與科技相關的效率提升,預期將於 2028 財政年度前實現。
Turning to Epic Experience. This is our long-term strategy we announced this summer, which provides a framework for our next phase of growth. While several of the initiatives behind Epic Experience were already underway, the strategy aligns them around a common objective, creating a more seamless, personalized and differentiated guest experience that drives greater loyalty, visitation and guest lifetime value.
接著談 Epic Experience。這是我們今年夏天宣布的長期策略,為下一階段的成長提供架構。雖然 Epic Experience 背後的多項計畫先前已在推進中,但該策略將它們圍繞共同目標加以整合,打造更無縫、更個人化且更具差異化的旅客體驗,進而提升忠誠度、到訪人次與旅客終身價值。
What makes this opportunity unique is our ability to connect the entire end-to-end guest experience across our resorts, products, ancillary services and digital platforms in a way and at a scale that is not easily replicated by others.
這項機會之所以獨特,在於我們能以他人不易複製的方式與規模,串聯度假村、產品、附加服務與數位平台,連結旅客端到端的完整體驗。
I want to touch on the five key pillars of Epic Experience, starting with guest engagement and the digital experience. As part of Epic Experience, we are expanding the My Epic app into a personalized digital companion for the entire ski experience, bringing planning, purchasing and in-resort engagement into a single platform.
我想談談 Epic Experience 的五大關鍵支柱,首先是旅客互動與數位體驗。作為 Epic Experience 的一部分,我們正將 My Epic 應用程式擴展為涵蓋整個滑雪體驗的個人化數位夥伴,把規劃、購買與度假村內互動整合到單一平台。
This month, we introduced native in-app commerce and added Apple Pay and Google Pay for pass offerings, and we'll shortly be launching that functionality for lift tickets across all our resorts, making it even easier for guests to transact within our ecosystem.
本月,我們推出原生的 App 內購物功能,並為通行證產品加入 Apple Pay 與 Google Pay;我們也將很快在所有度假村為纜車票推出該功能,使旅客在我們的生態系中交易更加便利。
Next, we are reimagining how guests access and use gear with My Epic Gear. Over a multiyear time frame, we will allow guests the ability to rent the gear they want, when they want, where they want without the need for either transporting their gear or going through today's current lengthy rental process. This season, we will roll out pick from demo gear and an updated web platform. Then in FY28, we will be rolling out the first full incarnation of the program along with full personalized app integration. For ski and ride school, we are elevating lessons into a more personalized mountain experience.
接下來,我們正透過 My Epic Gear 重新想像旅客如何取得與使用裝備。在多年期的推進下,我們將讓旅客能在想要的時間、想要的地點租到想要的裝備,而無需自行運送裝備或經歷目前冗長的租借流程。本雪季,我們將推出可從示範(demo)裝備中挑選,以及更新的網頁平台。接著在 2028 財政年度,我們將推出該計畫的第一個完整版本,並搭配完整的個人化 App 整合。至於滑雪與滑板學校(ski and ride school),我們正將課程提升為更個人化的山區體驗。
This includes upgrading the private lesson experience through Epic Ascent, a premium private lesson offering that provides dedicated concierge support, personalized trip planning and enhanced benefits that help guests build confidence and deepens their connection to skiing and riding.
這包括透過 Epic Ascent 升級私人課程體驗;Epic Ascent 是一項高端私人課程產品,提供專屬禮賓支援、個人化行程規劃以及強化的禮遇,協助賓客建立信心,並加深其與滑雪及雪板運動的連結。
In parallel, we are expanding the digital ski school experience across our US destination resorts, allowing for a seamless arrival with direct-to-digital check-in and real-time updates and progress monitoring within the app.
同時,我們正於美國各目的地度假村擴展數位滑雪學校體驗,讓賓客可透過直接數位化報到順暢抵達,並在 App 內取得即時更新與進度追蹤監控。
For our on-mountain dining, we are elevating the ski day classics, burgers, chicken fingers, chili, hotdogs, fries and mac and cheese, by investing in higher quality ingredients and refined presentation. We see an opportunity to make dining an additive, differentiated part of the entire ski experience and another reason guests choose to spend more time with us on the mountain. In the future, we'll be adding technology to improve the guest experience in our restaurants.
在山上餐飲方面,我們正透過投資更高品質的食材與更精緻的呈現方式,提升滑雪日經典餐點——漢堡、雞柳、辣肉醬、熱狗、薯條以及起司通心粉。我們看見機會,讓餐飲成為整體滑雪體驗中加分且具差異化的一環,並成為賓客選擇在山上與我們共度更多時間的另一個理由。未來,我們將導入科技以改善餐廳中的賓客體驗。
Finally, delivering an exceptional guest experience starts with people, who will always be at the foundation of this company. That's why we continue to invest in our frontline teams through training, development, engagement and retention initiatives that strengthen our ability to deliver a differentiated guest experience at scale.
最後,提供卓越的賓客體驗始於人,而人將永遠是本公司的根基。因此,我們持續透過訓練、發展、投入度與留任等計畫投資第一線團隊,以強化我們在規模化情況下提供差異化賓客體驗的能力。
It is also one of the most important proof points of our company's ability to deliver on Epic Experience with our frontline staffing and talent being a competitive strength today only accepting 11% of those who apply for frontline roles versus the challenges the company experienced in staffing just four years ago. By placing the guests at the center of everything we do, we see a significant opportunity to drive higher visitation, deepen guest loyalty, increase ancillary spending and ultimately grow guest lifetime value.
這也是證明本公司有能力透過第一線人力配置來落實 Epic Experience 的最重要佐證之一:我們的第一線人力與人才如今已成為競爭優勢,目前僅錄取申請第一線職位者的 11%,相較於公司在僅四年前於人力招募上所面臨的挑戰。透過將賓客置於我們一切作為的核心,我們看見顯著機會可帶動更高到訪量、深化賓客忠誠度、提升附加消費,並最終提高賓客終身價值。
Through our continued investments across our resorts, the digital experience and in talent, we are uniquely positioned to differentiate the guest experience with our integrated owned and operated network of world-class destination and regional resorts connected through our pass and marketing ecosystem and supported by unified data and technology platform.
透過我們在度假村、數位體驗與人才方面的持續投資,我們具備獨特優勢,可憑藉整合式自有並營運的世界級目的地與區域度假村網路(透過我們的通行證與行銷生態系相互連結,並由統一的資料與科技平台支援)來打造差異化的賓客體驗。
These are the building blocks that will ultimately support sustainable long-term growth and value creation. As we noted in a release earlier this month, we have received notices of intent to nominate individuals for election to our Board of Directors. The Board is evaluating those nominees and given that this process is ongoing, we will not be answering any questions on this topic today.
這些將是最終支撐可持續的長期成長與價值創造的基石。如同我們本月稍早在新聞稿中所提,我們已收到提名意向通知,將提名人選參選本公司董事會。董事會正在評估這些被提名人,且由於該流程仍在進行中,我們今天不會就此主題回答任何問題。
With that, I'll turn it over to Angela to walk through the financial results.
接下來,我把時間交給 Angela,請她說明財務結果。
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Rob. Starting with our results for the fourth quarter. Resort net revenue was about flat year-over-year. Results were impacted by unfavorable weather conditions in Australia where cumulative snowfall was more than 50% below the 10-year average. Those conditions pressured visitation and revenue during the quarter, partially offset by growth in Australian pass sales heading into their winter period and revenue growth at Grand Teton Lodge Company.
謝謝你,Rob。先從第四季的業績開始。度假村淨營收與去年同期相比大致持平。業績受到澳洲不利天候影響,累積降雪量較 10 年平均值低逾 50%。這些情況在本季對到訪量與營收造成壓力,部分由澳洲冬季來臨前的通行證銷售成長,以及 Grand Teton Lodge Company 的營收成長所抵銷。
Looking at the full year. As Rob mentioned, fiscal 2026 demonstrated the resilience of our business despite historically challenging weather conditions across several key markets. Total lift revenue decreased only 3.5% despite a 30% decline in skier visitation, supported by 4% growth in pass revenue, highlighting the resilience of our advanced commitment model.
再看全年表現。如 Rob 所提,儘管多個關鍵市場面臨歷史性嚴峻天候,2026 會計年度展現了我們業務的韌性。在滑雪人次到訪量下滑 30% 的情況下,總纜車收入僅下降 3.5%,並由通行證收入成長 4% 所支撐,凸顯我們「提前承諾」模式的韌性。
Fiscal 2026 Resort reported EBITDA of $746 million, landed in line with the midpoint of the range we provided in June, despite the softer Australia results, reflecting the benefits of not just our advanced commitment strategy, but also our disciplined cost management, continued progress on resource efficiency transformation and the strong execution of our teams across the organization.
2026 會計年度度假村報告 EBITDA 為 7.46 億美元,儘管澳洲業績較弱,仍符合我們 6 月提供區間的中點,反映的不僅是我們提前承諾策略的效益,也包括我們嚴謹的成本管理、資源效率轉型的持續進展,以及全組織團隊的強力執行。
Turning to pass sales. Through September 18, pass units declined 12%, days sold declined 10% and sales dollars, including tax, were down 6%. Performance through the September deadline remains consistent with the spring selling period when excluding auto renewal during that period. We believe the performance to date continues to be affected by the prior season's historically challenging conditions.
接著談通行證銷售。截至 9 月 18 日,通行證銷量(units)下降 12%,售出天數下降 10%,含稅銷售金額下降 6%。若排除該期間的自動續約,9 月截止日前的表現與春季銷售期一致。我們認為,目前的表現仍持續受到上一雪季歷史性嚴峻條件的影響。
Since the spring deadline, we saw modest improvements in Colorado, Utah and Tahoe local performance, while the weakness remains concentrated among destination frequency products, especially lower frequency passes. This may suggest delayed decision-making for lower frequency guests that may move later into the pass selling period or migrate back into lift ticket products sold during the season.
自春季截止日以來,我們看到科羅拉多、猶他與太浩湖的在地表現略有改善,但疲弱仍集中在目的地型的高頻次產品上,尤其是低頻次通行證。這可能意味著低頻次賓客的決策延後,可能在通行證銷售期後段才做出購買決定,或回流至雪季期間銷售的纜車票產品。
Importantly, we continue to see evidence that we are outperforming the broader industry via third-party data, particularly within comparable unlimited products, which gives us confidence that our competitive position remains strong despite softer overall pass sales trends to date. As Rob noted earlier, we view the current environment as being driven more by delayed purchasing behavior than a structural change in demand. As a result, we see meaningful opportunities to recapture demand through both pass sales and lift tickets in season.
重要的是,透過第三方數據,我們持續看到我們的表現優於整體產業,特別是在可比的不限次數產品中;這讓我們有信心,即使目前整體通行證銷售趨勢偏弱,我們的競爭地位仍然穩固。如 Rob 先前所述,我們認為目前環境更多是由延後購買行為所驅動,而非需求出現結構性改變。因此,我們看到可透過雪季中的通行證銷售與纜車票,重新捕捉需求的重大機會。
With that in mind, I want to spend some time on our fiscal 2027 outlook. We are guiding to net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $158 million to $233 million and resort reported EBITDA of $805 million to $865 million, including approximately $14 million of onetime costs.
基於此,我想花一些時間談談我們對 2027 會計年度的展望。我們預估歸屬於 Vail Resorts 的淨利為 1.58 億至 2.33 億美元,度假村報告 EBITDA 為 8.05 億至 8.65 億美元,其中包含約 1,400 萬美元的一次性成本。
Our guidance reflects a meaningful recovery in visitation when compared to the weather impacted fiscal 2026 season, though we expect visitation will not fully return to fiscal 2025 levels in the US given the current pass sale trends, we are not expecting an overall improvement during the rest of the selling season and expect to recapture a meaningful portion of lower pass visitation through increased lift ticket visitation.
我們的指引反映,相較於受天候影響的 2026 會計年度雪季,到訪量將明顯回升;但鑑於目前通行證銷售趨勢,我們預期美國到訪量不會完全回到 2025 會計年度水準。我們不預期在剩餘銷售季期間整體通行證銷售會改善,並預期將透過纜車票到訪量增加,回補低通行證到訪量中的相當部分。
Importantly, the level of lift ticket visitation embedded in our guidance remains well below historical levels achieved when the pass program was significantly smaller and below levels achieved following the fiscal 2022 pass price resets. Current pass sale trends leave a larger pool of uncommitted guests heading into the season, and we are making targeted investments in pricing and product optimization and marketing to capture that demand and drive visitation.
重要的是,我們指引中所包含的纜車票到訪量水準,仍遠低於通行證計畫規模顯著較小時所達成的歷史水準,也低於 2022 會計年度通行證價格重設後所達成的水準。目前通行證銷售趨勢使得進入雪季時未提前承諾的賓客池更大;我們正針對定價與產品最佳化以及行銷進行精準投資,以掌握該需求並帶動到訪量。
While these investments are expected to support near-term demand generation, they are also consistent with our larger strategy of strengthening guest awareness, acquisition and engagement to drive sustainable growth over time. Outside of the expected changes in visitation, we also expect benefits from pricing and capture initiatives across our rental, ski school, dining and other lines of business.
雖然這些投資預期將支持短期需求創造,但也與我們更大的策略一致:強化賓客認知、獲取與互動,以在時間推移中帶動可持續成長。除預期到訪量變化外,我們也預期在租賃、滑雪學校、餐飲及其他業務線上,將受惠於定價與轉化(capture)措施。
On the cost side, beyond variable expenses on the increased revenue, our outlook incorporates labor and expense inflation of approximately 4%, including normal wage inflation together with higher utility, fuel, legal and professional services costs. In addition to inflation and variable expenses, our guidance reflects approximately $20 million from the normalization of incentive compensation relative to fiscal 2026.
在成本方面,除隨收入增加而變動的費用外,我們的展望納入約 4% 的人力與費用通膨,包括正常薪資通膨,以及更高的公用事業、燃料、法律與專業服務成本。除通膨與變動費用外,我們的指引亦反映相較於 2026 會計年度,激勵性薪酬回歸常態所帶來約 2,000 萬美元的影響。
Approximately $10 million of incremental marketing investments, $3 million associated with the renewal of the Grand Teton Lodging Company contract and $3 million of incremental resource efficiency transformation onetime costs, partially offsetting these cost pressures are approximately $25 million of incremental efficiencies from our resource efficiency transformation program. Lastly, fiscal 2027 cash taxes are expected to be approximately $75 million to $85 million.
此外,包含約 1,000 萬美元的額外行銷投資、與 Grand Teton Lodging Company 合約續約相關的 300 萬美元,以及資源效率轉型新增的一次性成本 300 萬美元;部分抵銷上述成本壓力的是,我們資源效率轉型計畫帶來約 2,500 萬美元的新增效率提升。最後,2027 會計年度現金稅預期約為 7,500 萬至 8,500 萬美元。
To provide context on the outlook and given the magnitude of the severe weather impacts this past year, I also want to compare to the midpoint of fiscal -- of our fiscal 2027 guidance to the midpoint of our original fiscal 2026 outlook issued in September of 2025. While fiscal 2027 assumes a meaningful year-over-year recovery in visitation, we expect total visitation to remain modestly below our original fiscal 2026 expectations.
為提供展望的背景脈絡,且鑑於去年嚴重天候影響的幅度,我也想將我們 2027 會計年度指引的中點,與我們在 2025 年 9 月發布的原始 2026 會計年度展望中點進行比較。雖然 2027 會計年度假設到訪量將年對年顯著回升,但我們預期總到訪量仍將略低於我們原始 2026 會計年度的預期。
Despite that, total revenue is expected to increase approximately 3% when compared to the fiscal '26 expectations, driven by stronger ancillary revenue growth, while lift revenue remains relatively flat as targeted lower pricing and product strategies employed to support visitation offset a portion of the pricing-related growth. As a result, implied resort EBITDA margin of 27.3%, excluding onetime costs, is expected to be approximately 200 basis points below our original fiscal 2026 outlook.
儘管如此,總營收預期相較於 2026 會計年度原先預期將增加約 3%,主要由更強勁的附加營收成長所帶動;而纜車收入則維持相對持平,因為為支持到訪量而採取的針對性較低定價與產品策略,抵銷了部分由定價帶動的成長。因此,隱含的度假村 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.3%(不含一次性成本),預期將較我們原始 2026 會計年度展望低約 200 個基點。
Resource efficiency savings offset a portion of the incremental investment spending in areas like marketing, but this continues to demonstrate the value of the resource efficiency transformation program as we fund strategic investments while managing ongoing inflationary pressures. However, with visitation still below our original expectations for last year, inflation growth is outpacing our revenue growth, resulting in margin pressure compared to the original outlook.
資源效率節省抵銷了在行銷等領域部分新增投資支出,但這仍持續展現資源效率轉型計畫的價值:我們在管理持續的通膨壓力之際,仍能為策略性投資提供資金。然而,由於到訪人次仍低於我們對去年原先的預期,通膨增速正超過我們的營收增速,導致相較於原先展望出現利潤率壓力。
Turning to capital allocation. Despite the challenging operating environment this year, we remain confident in the cash flow generation capabilities of our business. Even at the low end of our fiscal 2027 guidance range, we expect to generate positive free cash flow after continuing to fund our capital program and dividends.
接著談資本配置。儘管今年營運環境充滿挑戰,我們仍對本業的現金流創造能力保持信心。即使在我們 2027 會計年度指引區間的低端,我們預期在持續投入資本計畫與股利之後,仍可產生正的自由現金流。
At July 31, total liquidity was approximately $0.8 billion and net leverage was 3.9 times trailing 12 months total reported EBITDA. Based on our fiscal 2027 resort EBITDA outlook, we expect leverage to decline to approximately 3.5 times by year-end, assuming no change in net debt compared to the year-end fiscal 2026 level.
截至 7 月 31 日,總流動性約為 8 億美元,淨槓桿為過去 12 個月總報告 EBITDA 的 3.9 倍。根據我們對 2027 會計年度度假村 EBITDA 的展望,假設淨負債相較於 2026 會計年度年末水準不變,我們預期槓桿比率將在年末降至約 3.5 倍。
Additionally, our Board declared a quarterly dividend of $2.22 per share, and we reaffirmed our calendar 2026 core capital plan. Our capital allocation priority remains balancing disciplined returns to shareholders with investing in the opportunities we see to further strengthen our competitive position and support long-term value creation.
此外,我們董事會宣告每股 2.22 美元的季度股利,並重申我們 2026 年曆年的核心資本計畫。我們的資本配置優先順序仍是在對股東提供紀律性的回報與投資我們所見機會之間取得平衡,以進一步強化競爭地位並支持長期價值創造。
For calendar 2027, we're particularly excited about planned lift investments announced today at Park City Mountain, including the replacement of Silverlode with our first eight-passenger detachable chairlift in the US and the replacement of Eagle and Eaglet with a new six-passenger detachable chairlift designed to improve access, capacity and guest flow. Combined with other recent infrastructure investments, those projects will further enhance the guest experience at one of our largest destination resorts.
展望 2027 年曆年,我們對今日宣布在 Park City Mountain 規劃的纜車投資特別感到振奮,其中包括以我們在美國的第一座八人座可脫掛式吊椅纜車汰換 Silverlode,以及以一座新的六人座可脫掛式吊椅纜車汰換 Eagle 與 Eaglet,該纜車旨在改善可達性、運能與旅客動線。結合近期其他基礎設施投資,這些專案將進一步提升我們最大型目的地度假村之一的旅客體驗。
In summary, while we continue to navigate the lingering impacts of last season's unusually severe conditions, the experience has reinforced the investments we've made to strengthen the business. As we look ahead, we remain focused on executing against the opportunities in front of us, while maintaining a disciplined approach to growth, profitability and capital allocation.
總結而言,儘管我們仍在因應上一雪季異常嚴峻狀況所帶來的餘波影響,這段經驗也再次印證了我們為強化業務所做的投資。展望未來,我們仍專注於把握眼前機會,同時維持對成長、獲利能力與資本配置的紀律性作法。
With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A.
接下來,我把電話交回給接線員進行問答。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Grambling,摩根士丹利。
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
I know you talked a little bit about this. So wondering if you could maybe just dig into some of the guidance assumptions around revenue, particularly as we just think about closing the gap from where pass sales are now to where the assumption is, I think, for slightly down for the year? And then also, I think you said that you said ancillary should actually be up, but again, with visitation down. So any additional color in terms of the contributions you're expecting, whether that's gear or other areas?
我知道你稍微談到了一點。所以想請你再深入說明一下指引中對營收的若干假設,特別是當我們思考如何縮小目前通行證(pass)銷售與假設之間的差距時——我想你們對全年假設是小幅下滑?另外,我記得你說附屬收入(ancillary)其實應該會成長,但到訪人次卻在下降。所以能否再補充一些細節,談談你們預期的貢獻來源,無論是裝備(gear)或其他領域?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think, ultimately, even though pass sales are down, the total amount of lift tickets that we would have to sell to make up a portion of that or even all of that would still be way below obviously the lift tickets we sold. If you could just go back, right, certainly, four or five years and obviously, even much further below where we were 10 years or 15 years ago or what you see other resorts doing.
是的。我想最終來看,即使通行證銷售下滑,我們需要額外賣出的纜車票(lift tickets)數量,無論是彌補其中一部分或全部,仍會遠低於我們過去實際售出的纜車票數量。如果你回頭看,對吧,當然是四、五年前,甚至更早——顯然也遠低於我們 10 年或 15 年前的水準,或你看到其他度假村所做的情況。
And so essentially, what I would say is going on is that you've had the most -- the least committed skier, right, who has come in, for the most part, on the lower frequency pass products that we've had that we added over the last few years, and obviously, with last year being so challenging, they're taking most likely a wait-and-see attitude.
所以我基本上會說,現在發生的情況是:最——也就是承諾度最低的滑雪客,對吧,多半是購買我們過去幾年新增的低頻次通行證產品的那群人;而且去年情況非常具挑戰性,他們很可能採取觀望態度。
And these are folks who historically bought lift tickets that we recently converted to a pass, not surprising to see a portion of them as we go into next season, again, probably holding off and waiting to make that commitment.
這些人過去歷來是買纜車票的,我們最近才把他們轉換成通行證;因此不意外的是,當我們進入下一個雪季時,其中一部分人可能會暫緩、等待再做出承諾。
Now whether they make that commitment in a pass as the pass selling season plays out through early December or whether they make -- ultimately commit to buying a lift ticket. We're not sure that, that kind of movement from lift tickets to pass or pass to lift ticket necessarily gets in the way of the overall demand that you'll see for the season.
至於他們是在通行證銷售季一路延續到 12 月初的過程中改為購買通行證,或是——最終改為承諾購買纜車票,我們不確定這種從纜車票轉向通行證、或從通行證轉回纜車票的移動,是否會影響你在整個雪季所看到的整體需求。
And it's an important reminder that if you go back certainly 5 years, 10 years, and you see some of the years that we had 20% or even 30% and season pass growth that didn't necessarily transfer into visitation growth for the year. It just meant that we were converting people from lift tickets to pass. And this year, what we might see, right, is obviously people moving out of a pass into lift tickets as we go into the season.
而且這也提醒大家:如果你回頭看 5 年、10 年前,你會看到某些年度我們的季票(season pass)成長達 20% 甚至 30%,但那不一定會轉化為當年到訪人次的成長。那只是表示我們把人從纜車票轉換成通行證。而今年,我們可能會看到的情況是,對吧,顯然是人們在進入雪季時從通行證轉回纜車票。
And then on -- sorry, and then on ancillary, yes, that is, we do expect to see capture growth across all of our ancillary lines of business, including in ski school and rental and in food.
然後——抱歉——再談附屬收入,是的,我們確實預期在所有附屬業務線都會看到滲透率(capture)成長,包括滑雪學校、租賃以及餐飲。
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Fair enough. And then maybe one other maybe a bigger picture question. There's been a lot of, I think, noise or certainly a lot of hoopla around, Meta's news and agentic AI. I'm just curious about, I know you have your own agent for helping with consumers, but any thoughts around how agentic AI may unfold how you may partner with folks or how you think about leveraging AI to support the business?
了解。再來可能還有一個更宏觀的問題。我想最近關於 Meta 的消息以及代理式 AI(agentic AI)有很多雜音,或至少引發很多熱議。我只是好奇,我知道你們自己也有一個用來協助消費者的代理(agent),但你對代理式 AI 未來可能如何發展、你們可能如何與相關業者合作,或你們如何思考運用 AI 來支持業務,有什麼看法?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, sure. I think, one, it's a core part of the technology transformation, which is part of our resource efficiency transformation that we announced, which is -- we do see a huge opportunity to bring AI into a lot of the kind of behind the scenes work that we do in many corporate functions and other areas where there's an opportunity for us to gain efficiency and candidly gain a lot more functionality and ability through a lot of these new software, and we will be partnering with a number of people as we look for the best providers on that.
好的。我想第一點,它是我們科技轉型的核心部分,而科技轉型又是我們所宣布的資源效率轉型的一部分;我們確實看到很大的機會,能把 AI 導入許多我們在幕後進行的工作,涵蓋多個企業職能與其他領域,在那裡我們有機會提升效率,坦白說,也能透過許多新軟體獲得更多功能與能力;而在尋找最佳供應商的過程中,我們也會與多方合作。
I think on the guest side, yes, we do see -- we do have an agent out there, but I'd say it's in its infancy. And really the opportunity for us, and it's definitely on our road map to essentially, yes, provide essentially a support person of sorts like a virtual concierge, where people can get information about our resorts and about how to plan their day and about how to ski the mountain and anything else that they want really at their fingertips, and we see that as a critical next step.
至於旅客端,是的,我們確實——我們已經有一個代理在外部運作,但我會說它仍在起步階段。而我們的機會點——也確實在我們的路線圖上——基本上是提供某種支援人員的角色,就像虛擬禮賓(virtual concierge)一樣,讓人們能隨手取得關於我們度假村的資訊、如何規劃一天行程、如何在山上滑雪,以及任何他們想要的資訊;我們認為這是關鍵的下一步。
And again, one of the ways that we intend to drive kind of guest engagement is absolutely going to be using AI, but also using human beings as well because we think the core ski experience, whether you're on the mountain or elsewhere, you do need those human touch points. And so we see those kind of acting in concert with each other.
再者,我們打算推動旅客互動的一種方式,絕對會是使用 AI,但同時也會使用真人,因為我們認為核心的滑雪體驗——無論你是在山上或其他地方——都需要那些人與人之間的接觸點。因此我們認為兩者會相互配合、協同運作。
Operator
Operator
Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.
Shaun Kelley,美國銀行。
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
Robert, Angela; I kind of wanted to go through the same as Stephen's question, but maybe a little bit more on the operating expense side. Just walk us through a little bit, and you gave a couple of the buckets, but hopefully a little bit more, if you could, on just normal kind of run rate operating expense inflation and then any other things to get back to sort of a more normal level of expense growth, just again, when people, I think, are looking at the revenues versus EBITDA dollars year-over-year, the expense growth looks a little higher than normal, but obviously, that anticipates probably a different revenue picture.
Robert、Angela;我想沿用 Stephen 的問題,但可能更聚焦在營運費用端。能否帶我們再走一遍?你們提到幾個費用類別(buckets),但如果可以的話,希望你們能再多談一些:一般正常的營運費用通膨的「跑速」(run rate)大概如何?以及還有哪些因素能讓費用成長回到比較正常的水準?因為我想大家在看營收與 EBITDA 金額的年對年變化時,費用成長看起來比平常高一些,但顯然這也反映你們預期的營收情境可能不同。
So any thoughts on that and maybe your ability to adjust should the revenue top line maybe not come in as planned?
所以對此你們有什麼看法?以及如果營收端的頂線(top line)可能未如計畫達成,你們調整的能力如何?
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Thanks, Shaun. Yes, relative to last year, there definitely are a few moving pieces here. I mean there's obviously the revenue-driven expense that comes with that revenue, the kind of the variable piece that comes with it. But then on top of that, we are seeing higher expense inflation.
是的。謝謝你,Shaun。是的,相較於去年,這裡確實有幾個變動因素。我的意思是,顯然會有隨著營收而來、由營收驅動的費用,也就是隨之變動的那一部分。但除此之外,我們也看到費用通膨更高。
And so we are expecting about 4% kind of blended all in between labor and expense. And then on top of that versus last year, right, you do have the add-back right from performance plans that we're obviously not paying out last year. There was a $20 million delta that I mentioned there on that cost coming back.
因此,我們預期整體而言(人力與其他費用合計)大約是4%的綜合增幅。另外,相較於去年,你也有來自績效方案的回沖(add-back),因為我們去年顯然沒有發放。我先前提到那項成本回來的差額是2,000萬美元。
We also have $10 million incremental that we're investing in marketing to drive some of the strategies and guest capturing to really drive visitation. And then we had a $3 million adjustment for GTLC, Grand Teton Lodge Company, that's with the new contract, and we have $3 million associated with the kind of onetime cost on our transformation plan. So all of those kind of, I guess, headwinds, if you will, are being partially offset then by about $25 million of incremental transformation savings that we will expect year-over-year.
我們也有額外1,000萬美元的投入,用於行銷,以推動部分策略與旅客獲取,真正帶動到訪人次。此外,GTLC(Grand Teton Lodge Company)因新合約有300萬美元的調整;同時,我們的轉型計畫也有約300萬美元的一次性成本。所以,所有這些我想可稱之為逆風的因素,將會被我們預期年增約2,500萬美元的轉型節省部分抵銷。
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
Shaun Kelley - Analyst
And then Rob, maybe just as my follow-up, very big picture. You laid out a lot on the experience side, which is, I think, very important and good to hear. I'm curious on just of those initiatives you laid out, which you touched on a lot of different parts of the business, what do you think is most sort of financially impactful in the kind of next 12 to 24 months? What do you kind of have an eye on or should investors have an eye on that you think can really move the needle on the financial side?
另外,Rob,作為追問,從更宏觀的角度來看。你在體驗面談了很多,我認為這非常重要,也很高興聽到。我好奇的是,在你列出的這些涵蓋業務多個面向的措施中,你認為在未來12到24個月,哪一項對財務影響最大?你自己或投資人應該特別關注哪些,你認為能在財務面真正帶來顯著改變的?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think -- I mean, to me, I think our goal is creating a differentiating experience. So when people come to our resorts, obviously, there's a portion of when you go to any ski resort, that's about like what that ski mountain is like. And obviously, we're going to continue to invest in lifts and snowmaking and everything else just like everybody else will, I assume. And so that will be great.
是的。我想——對我而言,我們的目標是打造具差異化的體驗。所以當人們來到我們的度假村時,顯然去任何滑雪度假村,其中一部分體驗取決於那座雪山本身如何。而且很明顯地,我們會像其他人一樣持續投資纜車、造雪以及其他各項設施,我想大家都會這麼做。所以那會很棒。
But what we're looking to do is to take almost every other aspect of the experience and have people have the felt sense that it's easier, that it is more personalized, that each -- skiing is a challenge. We all know that to get to the mountain, gear.
但我們想做的是,幾乎把體驗的其他每個面向都提升,讓人們有一種切身感受:更容易、更個人化,而且每一個——滑雪本身就是一項挑戰。我們都知道要到山上、裝備等等。
And we want people to feel like we are now providing services that candidly, other people would struggle to provide that actually makes their experience, yes, that much more compelling. And so it is that guest loyalty and the visitation that we'll get from that, that I think is candidly the most important.
我們希望人們覺得,我們現在提供的服務,坦白說是其他人很難提供的,且確實能讓他們的體驗更具吸引力。因此,我認為最重要的其實是由此帶來的旅客忠誠度與到訪人次。
I think the biggest singular opportunity financially is going to be gear. It's not something that's going to be in the next 12 months, but I absolutely see it as it's really a transformation of how people engage and use gear. There's very few people in the world that could do that. We're really the only ones and so that would be both a financial opportunity given how relatively small a percentage of the total amount of gear that's on our mountain do we actually rent. And then two, it is a guest loyalty opportunity.
我認為在財務上最大的單一機會會是裝備(gear)。這不會在接下來12個月內就完全顯現,但我絕對認為這將是人們如何接觸與使用裝備的一次轉型。全球能做到這件事的人非常少。我們幾乎是唯一能做到的,因此這既是財務機會——因為在我們雪山上使用的裝備總量中,實際由我們出租的比例相對很小;同時第二,它也是提升旅客忠誠度的機會。
As once we were quite confident that as people get used to that experience, it will be a major shift to go to another resort that may not be able to provide the same experience to them.
一旦我們相當有信心地看到人們習慣了那樣的體驗,轉去另一個可能無法提供同等體驗的度假村,將會是一個很大的轉換成本。
I think over the next 12 months, I think what will differentiate us is going to be the marketing and our ability to basically go from kind of country and worldwide passes to resort-specific passes, to lift tickets across each one of our resorts, to communicate with guests seamlessly across the entire continuum, to use the data that we're getting from everybody.
我認為在接下來12個月,能讓我們脫穎而出的會是行銷,以及我們基本上能從全國性與全球性的通行證(passes),轉向各度假村專屬的通行證、我們各度假村的纜車票(lift tickets),並能在整個旅客旅程(continuum)中無縫與旅客溝通,運用我們從每個人那裡取得的數據。
And that is what we are looking to leverage. We are unclear, right? I think every -- no one is clear as to exactly how this upcoming season will perform. But our goal right now is to make sure that we are taking share by picking up this bigger pool of uncommitted skiers that are now out there.
這就是我們希望加以槓桿運用的部分。我們也不確定,對吧?我想每個人——沒有人能清楚知道即將到來的雪季會表現如何。但我們目前的目標是確保我們能透過吸引現在市場上更大一群尚未承諾(uncommitted)的滑雪者來取得市占。
And so that, to me, over the next 12 and 24 months, that's certainly going to be an important key driver of our financial performance, especially relative to the industry.
所以對我而言,在接下來12到24個月,這肯定會是我們財務表現的重要關鍵驅動因素,尤其是相對於整個產業而言。
Operator
Operator
Arpine Kocharyan, UBS.
Arpine Kocharyan,瑞銀(UBS)。
Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst
Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst
I was hoping you could talk a little bit about what's embedded in the lower end versus higher end of EBITDA range. Is it simply a matter of reasonably good ski season versus choppier season, but overall much better than last year? Just what's within that range? And then I have a quick follow-up.
我希望你能談談,EBITDA 指引區間下緣與上緣各自隱含了什麼。是否只是相對不錯的滑雪季對比更顛簸的雪季,但整體仍比去年好很多?這個區間裡包含了哪些假設?然後我有個簡短的追問。
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I mean, I think a portion of it could be weather. A portion of it is obviously, there's economy. There's other factors. But yes, we try and kind of come up with what we see as the expectation and the most likely outcome.
是的。我的意思是,其中一部分可能是天氣。一部分顯然是經濟。還有其他因素。但沒錯,我們會試著提出我們認為的預期與最可能的結果。
And then we realize that there are so many different factors that could add to that or subtract to that. I think certainly, on the upside if we get a normal ski season, we could see -- we're estimating that visitation will be down, right, in this upcoming season versus the season two years ago for the US ski industry to the extent that even in a normal winter, you could absolutely make a case that we could see the visitation come fully back to where we were in '25.
然後我們也知道,有非常多不同因素可能會在此基礎上加分或扣分。我認為當然在上行情境下,如果我們遇到正常的滑雪季,我們可能會看到——我們估計即將到來的雪季,美國滑雪產業的到訪人次會較兩年前那個雪季下降;但即便在正常冬季,你完全可以主張到訪人次有機會完全回到我們在「25年」時的水準。
If you get certainly a super El Nino or something like that, you can certainly see it even beat that. On the other hand, we are going through a transition where people are going to be moving from passes to lift tickets. There's clearly more variability and risk in that. We feel really good about how we're positioned in that transition to potentially actually again, continue to pick up share. But again, there's some variability and risk in that for sure.
如果出現非常強的聖嬰現象(El Nino)或類似情況,你當然也可能看到表現甚至超過那個水準。另一方面,我們正處於一個轉換期,人們會從通行證(passes)轉向纜車票(lift tickets)。這裡顯然有更高的波動性與風險。我們對自己在這個轉換中的定位感到非常有信心,甚至有機會再次持續提升市占。但同樣地,這裡確實存在一些波動與風險。
Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst
Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst
Got it. And then I wanted to go back to the first question that was asked. Current margins imply revenue up something like 9% to 10% in resort revenues. And you know you mentioned that after a disaster season seeing window demand up 25%, 30% is not inconceivable. And that certainly can be true, but isn't it sort of really dependent on weather?
了解。我想回到第一個被問到的問題。以目前的利潤率來看,似乎意味著度假村營收大約成長9%到10%。而你提到在一個災難性的雪季之後,窗口需求(window demand)成長25%、30%並非不可想像。這當然可能成立,但這不就很依賴天氣嗎?
But then on the other hand, you also have some positive mix, right, that's helping you given incentives to drive shifts towards -- away from one or two day passes to longer stays, given some of the pricing actions you've taken. Is it possible at all to outline how much mix could be helping you for the year to get to that 9% to 10% in resort revenue when you have pass product down 6%?
但另一方面,你也有一些正向的組合(mix)因素在幫助你,對吧?例如透過誘因推動從一到兩日票轉向更長天數的停留,再加上你採取的一些定價措施。在通行證產品下滑6%的情況下,是否有可能說明一下,組合因素在今年要達到度假村營收成長9%到10%時,可能貢獻了多少?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Well, I would say it circles back a little bit to what we said earlier, which is passes are not -- I mean, just like when passes were up 20% or up 40%, it didn't mean the visitation during the year were going to be up that much. We were just moving people from lift tickets to passes.
是的。嗯,我會說這多少回到我們先前提到的:通行證並不——我的意思是,就像通行證成長20%或40%時,也不代表當年的到訪人次就會成長那麼多。我們只是把人從纜車票轉到通行證而已。
So with passes down right now, we don't see necessarily that that's indicative of lower demand for the season. It could be people moving either later in the pass selling cycle or into lift tickets, back to lift tickets, because a lot of these folks have only been in the pass, these types of guests only for the last few years. So that's one piece of it.
因此,就目前通行證銷售下滑而言,我們不一定認為這代表本季需求較低。這可能是因為人們在通行證銷售週期中轉向較後段購買,或是轉向纜車票、回到纜車票,因為其中許多人在過去幾年才開始只買通行證,這類型的旅客也僅在最近幾年才以通行證為主。所以這是其中一個面向。
From a mix perspective, yes, we are mixing up in terms of our pass, which is good. Although clearly, some of these folks may actually either move out of pass into lift tickets or ultimately come in at the end of the pass selling season into lower frequency products. So at this point, I think, it's pretty hard for us to tell the kind of frequency mix right now. But I guess, as we think about next season, we're not thinking that there's necessarily an overall frequency change for the US ski industry. So if that helps.
從組合(mix)的角度來看,是的,我們的通行證組合正在往較高端的方向移動,這是好事。不過很明顯,其中一些人可能會從通行證轉回纜車票,或是在通行證銷售季末期才進來、改買使用頻率較低的產品。所以在這個時間點,我認為我們很難判斷目前的使用頻率組合。但我想,當我們思考下一個雪季時,我們並不認為美國滑雪產業整體的使用頻率會出現必然的變化。希望這樣有幫助。
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It may be helpful to just put in perspective versus last year's guidance, right? We're essentially saying we're going to be modestly below that on visitation, making up that to be flat on lift revenue versus last year's guidance. And so there are -- I mean that has the blended mix assumption essentially built in there. But remember, we did take some actions to also drive visitation within our pricing strategies as well.
或許把它和去年給的指引做個對照會更有幫助,對吧?我們基本上是在說,造訪人次(visitation)會比去年的指引略低一些,但纜車收入(lift revenue)相較於去年的指引將補回到持平。因此——我的意思是,這裡面本質上已經包含了加權後的組合假設。但請記得,我們也在定價策略上採取了一些行動,以帶動造訪人次。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Stantial, Stifel.
Jeff Stantial,Stifel。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
This is Aidan Youngs on for Jeff Stantial. I imagine you have more to share after your final pass sales update at fiscal Q1. But Rob, just curious if there's anything you can provide in terms of Gen Z uptake on a 20% discount. And in particular, how you think about the mix of incremental demand, whether you think most of these are new pass holders are coming in from lift tickets, competitors or if they're new to the sport?
我是代替 Jeff Stantial 的 Aidan Youngs。我想你們在會計年度第一季(fiscal Q1)最後一次通行證銷售更新後,應該會有更多資訊可以分享。但 Rob,我想請教目前你能否提供一些關於 Z 世代(Gen Z)在 20% 折扣下的採用情況。特別是,你如何看待新增需求的組成:你認為多數是新的通行證持有人、從纜車票轉換而來、從競爭對手轉換而來,或是他們是這項運動的新手?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think it is a little hard to tell at this point. And so we will give a more fulsome update when we get to the end of the pass selling season. We've definitely seen yes, some positive results from that program. We're pleased with it.
是的。我認為在這個時間點還有點難判斷。因此等到通行證銷售季結束時,我們會提供更完整的更新。我們確實看到這個方案帶來一些正面的成果。我們對此感到滿意。
Obviously, it's in the context of the overall market being down. So it's always a little bit tricky to -- yes, we're not getting, certainly, the full opportunity that we think we could get in a more normal kind of pass market. But yes, we still feel very good about that decision because it aligns with a lot of our other decisions, which is to bring more people into the program and certainly when we look at how we're doing versus others.
當然,這是在整體市場下滑的背景之下。所以要判讀就總是有點棘手——是的,我們當然沒有獲得我們認為在更正常的通行證市場中可以取得的全部機會。但我們仍然對這個決策感到非常有信心,因為它與我們其他許多決策一致,也就是把更多人帶入這個計畫;而且當我們看我們相對於其他人的表現時也是如此。
We feel good about our position. I mean in the end, of course, we'd all rather be in an up market. We'd rather last year have been a great ski season versus the worst ever in the Rockies. But ultimately, our job is to really provide the best experience we can and to ensure that we're making inroads and bringing in new guests on a relative basis to the rest of the market.
我們對自己的位置感到滿意。我的意思是,最後當然我們都寧可處在上升的市場。我們也寧可去年是個很棒的滑雪季,而不是落磯山脈史上最糟的一季。但最終,我們的工作是盡可能提供最佳體驗,並確保我們能持續取得進展,且相對於市場其他業者而言,能帶來更多新旅客。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. And for a follow-up, do you have a sense for what sort of impact, if any, the Deer Valley expansion had last year? And do you think there can be any more incremental share loss this year just as awareness grows and they open up some more terrain?
了解。那追問一下,你是否掌握 Deer Valley 擴建案去年帶來的影響(如果有的話)?以及你是否認為今年隨著知名度提升、他們開放更多地形後,還可能出現更多的增量市占流失?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I don't know certainly the exact impact of that. And obviously, last year was a tough year all around. So it's a little hard to assess like what that impact would have been. And I do think it's really a terrific addition to Deer Valley.
是的。我當然不清楚那個影響的確切程度。而且很明顯,去年整體而言是艱難的一年。所以要評估那個影響本來會是什麼樣子,確實有點難。但我確實認為那對 Deer Valley 來說是非常棒的新增項目。
No doubt about it. And I feel really good about the investments that we're making in Park City. So when you think about it, we've got these two new lifts going in on the Park City side plus a retrofitted Crescent lift plus the Sunrise gondola that we introduced last year and put in on the Canyons side, plus this year, we're putting in the Skyway gondola from the parking structure to the top, plus a new parking structure at the base of the lift. So you think about -- that is a -- these are very, very significant investments. I think over the time that since we've owned Park City, it's like over $200 million that we've invested in Park City.
毫無疑問。而且我對我們在 Park City 所做的投資非常有信心。所以你想想看,我們在 Park City 這一側會新增兩座新的纜車,再加上一座翻新改造的 Crescent 纜車;另外還有我們去年在 Canyons 那一側推出並設置的 Sunrise 吊廂纜車(gondola);再加上今年我們要從停車結構(parking structure)到山頂設置 Skyway 吊廂纜車,並在纜車站基座處新增一座新的停車結構。所以你想想——這是——這些都是非常、非常重大的投資。我想自從我們擁有 Park City 以來,我們在 Park City 的投資累計已超過 2 億美元。
So yes, I think it's -- by the way, I think it's terrific that Deer Valley is investing in the resort. Now we're investing in the resort. And I think that just brings the entire market up, which I think both resorts will really benefit from.
所以是的,我認為——順帶一提,我也覺得 Deer Valley 投資度假村這件事很棒。現在我們也在投資度假村。我認為這會把整個市場一起帶上來,而我相信兩個度假村都會因此真正受益。
Operator
Operator
Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.
Ben Chaiken,Mizuho。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Just maybe one on guidance and one quick follow-up. So again, the implied top line is up around 9% or 10%, if I'm not mistaken. I would have thought there's an effective ticket price headwind in FY27, given the utilization last year on the pass was so low. Maybe where am I off in that line of thinking? Because it sounds like you're actually assuming some price growth or tailwind as part of the algo, if that's correct.
可能一題關於指引,再一個簡短追問。所以如果我沒記錯,隱含的營收(top line)大約成長 9% 或 10%。我原本以為在 FY27,因為去年通行證的使用率(utilization)很低,有效票價(effective ticket price)會形成逆風。我這樣想是哪裡不對嗎?因為聽起來你們其實在模型(algo)中假設了某種價格成長或順風,如果我理解正確的話。
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Ben. Yes, when you looked at the increase for ETP, effective ticket price, this year, you saw the benefit, right, from just lower utilization on the passes. So you're right, that piece is impacting kind of how you think about then the year-over-year impact of that next year.
謝謝,Ben。是的,當你看今年有效票價(ETP, effective ticket price)的提升時,你會看到其帶來的好處,對吧,主要來自通行證使用率較低。所以你說得對,這一塊會影響你對明年那個年對年(year-over-year)影響的看法。
But what I would do is I would think about this in terms of pass revenue growth that we provided and the assumption on recapturing that on lift tickets and think about those two things. Because the ETP impact from both the low pass-holder utilization, but also the regional mix from this prior year definitely is, of course, that part is a headwind on the lift ticket side for next year.
但我會建議你從我們提供的通行證收入成長來思考,並搭配我們對於在纜車票上回收(recapturing)那部分的假設,把這兩件事一起看。因為有效票價的影響,除了通行證持有人使用率偏低之外,前一年度的區域組合(regional mix)也確實存在;當然,這一部分在明年的纜車票端會形成逆風。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Okay. And then maybe just directionally, are you assuming that ancillary grows faster than your lift ticket revenue in '27?
好的。那再方向性地問一下,你們是否假設 27 年的附屬收入(ancillary)成長會快於纜車票收入?
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. With our pass initiatives, our pricing strategies, yes, that's where we're expecting versus last year's guidance. We're expecting to see revenue growth on ancillary, which is how you're getting to the kind of 3% total revenue growth over last year's guide.
是的。透過我們的通行證措施與定價策略,是的,相較於去年的指引,我們預期附屬收入(ancillary)會有營收成長;這也是你如何推導出相較於去年指引約 3% 的總營收成長。
Operator
Operator
Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.
Lizzie Dove,Goldman Sachs。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
So I wanted to ask just in terms of like -- in terms of the guidance this year, it's below, obviously, as you talked about, what 2025 was. And so that's even with, I think, some assumed weather recovery, it sounds like for the cost savings. And so I'm just wondering, just structurally, if you think anything has changed about the industry or Vail specifically, whether that's just a 2027 thing or how that impacts kind of how you think about the long-term algo that you gave back in March.
我想問的是——就今年的指引而言,它低於你們所提到的 2025 年水準,顯然是低於。而且即便如此,聽起來你們在成本節省方面仍假設天氣會有一些復原。所以我想了解的是,從結構面來看,你是否認為產業或 Vail 本身有任何改變——不論那只是 2027 年的情況,或是這會如何影響你們對於 3 月所提供的長期模型(long-term algo)的看法。
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I think we're -- the guide we have for next year right now is based on, yes, some lingering effects from last year. And I think we're seeing that in pass sales. And so I think as we go into next year, we're saying that we will recover a good portion of the pass sale miss, but we're not -- miss, but not all of the pass sales miss.
是的,我認為我們——目前對明年的指引確實是基於去年仍殘留的一些影響。而且我認為我們在雪票(Pass)銷售上也看到了這點。因此我認為,進入明年時,我們的看法是:我們會收復雪票銷售落差中的相當一部分,但不是——會收復落差,但不會把所有雪票銷售的落差都收回來。
As I said earlier, we could easily see that, that fully recovers, but we are assuming that based on some transition as people go between lift tickets and -- up between passes and lift tickets, there could be some kind of slippage between those two.
如我先前所說,我們很容易看到它完全恢復,但我們的假設是,基於人們在纜車單日票(Lift Tickets)與——在雪票與纜車單日票之間轉換的過程中,兩者之間可能會出現某種程度的流失。
Candidly, there's a good case to be made that there won't be any. But at this moment, right, having not seen this kind of dynamic yet play out after the huge explosive growth in path, we feel like, yes, that's probably the right way to guide. And I would say that, yes, we are leaning into being more competitive on price in terms of our lift products. So that -- those combined, right, create the kind of guide you're seeing for next year. It does not change the algorithm that we see for the business as we go forward.
坦白說,有很充分的理由認為不會有任何流失。但就目前這個時間點而言,對吧,在我們尚未看到這種動態在雪票爆發式成長之後實際發生之前,我們覺得,是的,這大概是做指引的正確方式。我也會說,是的,就我們的纜車產品而言,我們正傾向在價格上更具競爭力。所以——這些因素加在一起,對吧,就形成了你們看到的明年指引。這不會改變我們對未來業務所看到的運作邏輯(algorithm)。
So we feel like, yes, what we outlined at the Investor Day is still 100% what we believe, but as we grow back from the issues of last season, yes, that may not -- and I think we mentioned that at the Investor Day, that may not all come back in the first year.
因此我們覺得,是的,我們在投資人日所概述的內容仍然是我們百分之百相信的,但當我們從上一季的問題中逐步恢復時,是的,那可能不會——而且我想我們在投資人日也提到過,那些影響不一定會在第一年就全部回來。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Got it. And then I think you said that you're not giving full CapEx guidance until next quarter, but you mentioned some exciting investments that you're making, Park City, the Grand Teton requirements and then some tariffs and inflation. And so just, I guess, high level in the context of cash flow that you talked about and whatnot.
了解。然後我想你提到,在下個季度之前你們不會提供完整的資本支出(CapEx)指引,但你也提到一些令人振奮的投資:Park City、Grand Teton 的需求,以及一些關稅與通膨因素。所以我想,就你談到的現金流等背景下,高層次地問一下。
I'm curious, just high level what you're thinking about for next year's core CapEx plan, whether that can be ahead of this year? And if there's any change to kind of what you think of as like normalized CapEx requirements longer term?
我好奇的是,就高層次而言,你們對明年核心資本支出計畫的想法是什麼?是否可能高於今年?以及長期來看,你們對所謂「正常化」資本支出需求的看法是否有任何改變?
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I mean no long-term change to the core capital guidance. We will adjust it for inflation. So inflation like you saw kind of in our operating budget. Yes, we are seeing a little bit elevated inflation, and we will have the impacts that we'll call out separately for Grand Teton Lodge, those we will call out separately. But really in the scheme of like relative to this year, very much in line with the spending we've had in this current calendar year.
我的意思是,長期來看核心資本指引沒有改變。我們會因應通膨進行調整。所以就像你在我們營運預算中看到的那樣的通膨。是的,我們確實看到通膨略為偏高;而 Grand Teton Lodge 的影響,我們會另外單獨說明。但整體而言,就相對於今年來說,支出水準與我們本曆年目前的支出非常一致。
Operator
Operator
Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.
Xian Siew,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Maybe on the recovery of the lift ticket. Can you talk a little bit about how much do you think is just the broader industry recovery versus your share gains. It sounds like you're expecting some share gains, but maybe just how do we kind of think about that relative to a broader recovery.
也許談談纜車單日票的復甦。你能否多談一點:你認為其中有多少是整體產業的復甦、又有多少是你們的市占提升?聽起來你們預期會有一些市占提升,但我們該如何相對於更廣泛的復甦來思考這件事?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I would say -- I mean, we certainly assume that the industry is going to have a significant recovery from last year. The only question is whether the industry is going to get all the way back to the FY25 season. And I think our assumption is -- for the guidance at least is that it may not, given what we're seeing in our pass sales and what we're seeing in other people's pass sales through third parties. That may or may not happen.
是的。我會說——我的意思是,我們當然假設產業會從去年出現顯著復甦。唯一的問題是,產業是否能完全回到 FY25 雪季的水準。而我認為我們的假設——至少就指引而言——是可能回不到,考量到我們在自家雪票銷售上看到的情況,以及我們透過第三方看到的其他人的雪票銷售情況。這可能會發生,也可能不會。
We don't -- again, it's like -- as we've said, there's some variability in there, some upside, certainly could be some downside, it's hard to say. But our view is, yes, that within that, our guidance assumes that we will outperform the rest of the industry, weather adjusted, of course, on lift tickets. And so we will pick up and we will outperform on passes. So we will pick up visitation share as we go into next year.
我們不——再說一次,這就像——如我們所說,其中存在一些變動性;當然可能有上行,也可能有下行,很難說。但我們的看法是,是的,在這樣的背景下,我們的指引假設:在纜車單日票方面(當然要做天候調整),我們會優於產業其他同業。而且在雪票方面我們也會提升並跑贏。因此進入明年時,我們將提升到訪人次的市占。
We're not disclosing exactly how much that is versus the industry. But yes, it is -- in our mind, that's a key driver of a lot of our strategies, both on the marketing side, product and pricing side and on the investments we're making in the guest experience. And so that's how we're setting up the guidance for next year.
我們不會揭露其中有多少是相對於產業的部分。但沒錯,在我們看來,這是我們許多策略的關鍵驅動因素——不論是在行銷端、產品與定價端,或是我們在旅客體驗上的投資。因此,我們就是以這樣的方式來設定明年的指引。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then you talked also about converting some guests who might have been on passes in the past. Maybe it's a lower frequency pass back into a lift ticket, potentially this year. Can you talk about how you think about maybe like the price that, that guest might pay, whereas if they got used to kind of paying a lower price for a visit to go on the Epic Pass or an Epic day pass to now having to pay potentially a much higher window price, even with maybe one month in advance, but maybe just kind of the confidence in the ability to kind of convert that guest going from like maybe a lower price day pass to a higher priced window pass?
好的。很好。然後你也談到,把一些過去可能買雪票的旅客轉回纜車單日票——也許是低頻使用的雪票——今年可能會轉回單日票。你能否談談你們如何看待:這位旅客可能需要支付的價格?因為他們可能已經習慣用 Epic Pass 或 Epic Day Pass 以較低的單次到訪成本來滑雪,現在可能必須支付高得多的現場窗口價(window price),即便可能提前一個月購買也是如此。但我想問的是,你們對於把這位旅客從較低價的日票轉換到較高價的窗口票的能力,有多大信心?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think it's one of the key reasons last year why we launched the one month in advance ticket with a 30% off opportunity for people because it blends in between Epic Day Pass and obviously a window pass or even a kind of one-week event, Epic -- and it blends between an Epic Day Pass and a lift ticket or even like one-week advanced lift ticket.
是的。我認為這也是我們去年推出「提前一個月購票可享 30% 折扣」票種的關鍵原因之一,因為它介於 Epic Day Pass 與顯然的窗口票之間,或甚至介於某種一週行程的 Epic——它介於 Epic Day Pass 與纜車單日票之間,或甚至像提前一週購買的纜車單日票。
And so our view was that, yes, it's a little bit more for sure, but it also allows people not to have to pay or commit during the pass selling season. And again, you only have to go back a few years to realize, these are folks who were paying lift ticket prices only a few years ago. So like in the end, we don't know that, that conversion is a huge issue.
因此我們的看法是:是的,確實會貴一點,但它也讓人們不必在雪票銷售季就付款或做出承諾。而且再說一次,你只要回頭看幾年前就會發現,這些人幾年前其實都還在付纜車單日票的價格。所以最終,我們不確定這種轉換會是很大的問題。
Secondly, we're also still going to be heavily promoting really in its second year of its current incarnation, Epic Friend Ticket, which is a much larger, right, discount, 50% off if you come with a pass holder. So there's going to be opportunities, we think, for people at almost every stage here. So as you get into later into
第二,我們也仍會大力推廣 Epic Friend Ticket——以目前的形式來看已是第二年——這是一個更大幅度的折扣,對吧,如果你和雪票持有人一起來,可享 50% 折扣。所以我們認為,在幾乎每個階段,人們都會有一些機會。所以當你進入更後面一點的時期
November or early December, if people want to make a -- book their trip, they'll be able to get those lowest pass prices. If they don't want to wait, they'll be able to get the 30-day in advance ticket price. If they want to wait all the way to the last day, but they know a pass holder, they can come with that pass holder and get that 50% off offer.
到了 11 月或 12 月初,如果人們想要——預訂行程,他們將能拿到那些最低的雪票價格。如果他們不想等,他們可以拿到提前 30 天購票的票價。如果他們想一路等到最後一天,但他們認識一位雪票持有人,他們可以和那位持有人一起來,並取得 50% 折扣的優惠。
So we feel like we have like kind of offers and products and prices for kind of each guest along the continuum. And maybe most importantly is these are guests that we're going to be talking to continuously from the beginning all the way through the season. That for us is unique, right? We'll be serving them ads, personalized ads based on what we know about them, again, initially for passes, then for lift tickets. And so we do think that gives us a unique advantage.
所以我們覺得,我們在這個連續光譜上,對每一類旅客都提供了某種優惠、產品與價格。而且也許最重要的是,這些旅客我們會從一開始一路到整個雪季持續與他們溝通。這對我們來說是獨特的,對吧?我們會投放廣告、根據我們對他們的了解提供個人化廣告——同樣地,一開始是推雪票,之後再推纜車單日票。因此我們確實認為這讓我們具備獨特的優勢。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Bonadio, Wells Fargo.
Anthony Bonadio,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Not to beat a dead horse on the lift tickets, but just given the cost levels there that you just mentioned, I guess is there any concern around how the consumer backdrop is evolving as we think about rising rates, reaccelerating inflation as you forecast that demand, and just how you think about those consumer sensitivities more broadly?
不是要一直重複談纜車票(lift tickets)的問題,但就您剛才提到的那邊成本水準來看,我想問的是,當我們考量升息、以及如您所預測需求時通膨再度加速的情況下,您是否擔心消費者環境的演變?以及更廣泛來說,您如何看待消費者對價格的敏感度?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I think -- I mean, look, I think we're subject for sure to the same dynamics that every travel company is -- has to deal with in terms of overall inflation and affordability and things like that. I would say though that when you look at how we're leaning in on lift tickets and on passes, I think certainly with us right now, there's an opportunity, I think, for people to, yes, still have affordable options at every level. And so I think our pass has always been viewed as one of the most affordable options in travel. And so we think that positions us quite well, but yes, it's true.
是的。我想——我的意思是,你看,我們確實也會受到所有旅遊公司都必須面對的相同動態影響,也就是整體通膨、可負擔性等等。不過我會說,當你看我們在纜車票與通行證(passes)上的著力點時,我認為就我們目前而言,確實存在一個機會,讓大家在各個層級都仍然有可負擔的選項。因此我認為我們的通行證一直被視為旅遊中最具可負擔性的選項之一。所以我們認為這讓我們的定位相當不錯,但沒錯,這確實是真的。
Like obviously, we should note that we're subject to the economy overall. And certainly, if there's a slowdown in travel or and in particular, a slowdown in high-end travel, yes, that could be an issue for us. We do skew as the industry does and us even more, we do skew to the high-end traveler, which has at least so far shown to be a little bit more protected against some of the pricing challenges that other parts of the consumer industry have faced.
當然,我們也應該指出,我們會受到整體經濟的影響。而且如果旅遊出現放緩,或特別是高端旅遊放緩,沒錯,這可能會對我們造成問題。我們的客群確實如同產業一樣、甚至比產業更偏向高端旅客;而至少到目前為止,高端旅客在面對消費產業其他部分所遭遇的一些價格壓力時,似乎相對更能受到保護。
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe one for Angela. On capital allocation, can you just talk about your comfort level with the current 3.9 times leverage multiple. And just how you're thinking about the dividend, the buyback in that context?
了解。這很有幫助。接著可能有一題想問 Angela。關於資本配置(capital allocation),能否談談您對目前 3.9 倍槓桿倍數(leverage multiple)的舒適度?以及在這樣的背景下,您如何思考股利(dividend)與庫藏股回購(buyback)?
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. The confidence in the balance sheet is still very strong. We expect that our leverage will go down to 3.5 times at this year's guidance. So it is elevated off of a really challenging last year, but we think that the balance sheet supports really all of our capital priorities, right? It gives us flexibility for if we had attractive or accretive M&A, which we would prioritize, or reiterate what we've already said, which is we're fully committed to our capital spending plans.
好的。我們對資產負債表的信心仍然非常強。我們預期依照今年的財測指引(guidance),槓桿將降至 3.5 倍。所以相較於去年非常具挑戰的一年,目前確實偏高,但我們認為資產負債表足以支撐我們所有的資本優先事項,對吧?它也讓我們在出現具吸引力或具增益(accretive)的併購(M&A)機會時保有彈性——我們會優先考量;或者重申我們已經說過的,也就是我們完全致力於我們的資本支出計畫。
And then for returning capital to shareholders, yes, even at the low end of the guidance, like I mentioned, we feel like we are covering both the capital plan and the dividend. So I feel very confident where we sit.
至於回饋股東資本,是的,即使在指引區間的低端,如我提到的,我們也覺得我們同時能覆蓋資本計畫與股利。所以我對我們目前的位置非常有信心。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Berni, Jefferies.
Anthony Berni,Jefferies。
Anthony Berni - Analyst
Anthony Berni - Analyst
This is Anthony on for David Katz. Should we expect additional incremental lift ticket pricing strategies to be unveiled this year, like the SALT and the under-30 tickets? And how should we think about dynamic pricing going forward?
我是 Anthony,代替 David Katz 提問。我們是否應該預期今年會公布更多額外的纜車票定價策略,例如 SALT 與 30 歲以下票種?以及我們應該如何看待未來的動態定價(dynamic pricing)?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I would say we're not -- yes, we're not going to share kind of any indication on future pricing decisions, but all of that is captured within our guidance. And I would comment that I think we feel really good about the Epic Friend ticket and the kind of super advanced lift ticket that we announced last year.
是的。我會說我們不——是的,我們不會分享任何關於未來定價決策的指引,但這些都已包含在我們的財測指引之中。另外我想補充的是,我們對去年宣布的 Epic Friend 票種以及那種「超早鳥」纜車票(super advanced lift ticket)感覺非常好。
And I think there's room for both of those to continue to grow and for us to continue to optimize on both of them because obviously, we have a whole season behind us, although a little bit of a challenged season. And so we think there's an opportunity for both of those things.
我認為這兩者都有持續成長的空間,我們也能持續在兩者上做最佳化,因為很明顯,我們已經有一整個雪季的經驗可供參考,雖然那是一個有點具挑戰的雪季。因此我們認為這兩件事都有機會。
But yes, we're going to continue to be opportunistic certainly on pricing. But I would say still within a fairly disciplined approach. So I think that's one of the hallmarks we've had for a long time, is taking a disciplined approach to pricing. If we're making a move, it's not something that's reactive about one day or one season. It's something that we think long term is the right strategic positioning for us.
不過是的,我們當然會在定價上持續把握機會。但我會說仍會在相當有紀律的方法之下進行。我想這一直是我們長期以來的特點之一:以有紀律的方式來做定價。如果我們要採取行動,那不是針對某一天或某一季的反應式作法。而是我們認為從長期來看,對我們而言是正確的策略定位。
Anthony Berni - Analyst
Anthony Berni - Analyst
Got it. And then a quick one. Can you just talk a bit about what's driving the negative real estate EBITDA guidance that kind of surprised us?
了解。再快速問一題。能否談談是什麼因素驅動房地產 EBITDA 指引為負、讓我們有點意外?
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Angela Korch - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. The real estate guide for next year does not anticipate any new closings, and that's why it's down versus -- in the prior year, we did have several scheduled closings within the year. And so that's what's created a year-over-year variance.
好的。明年的房地產指引並未預期會有任何新的交割(closings),因此相較之下會下降——而在前一年,我們在年度內確實有幾筆已排程的交割。所以這就是造成年度同比差異的原因。
Operator
Operator
Chris Woronka, Deutsche Bank.
Chris Woronka,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)。
Chris Woronka - Research Analyst
Chris Woronka - Research Analyst
Rob, if you kind of look at the -- where you are on pass sales, I mean, is there anything to think that like you can get help from international if that rebounds? I mean, I kind of -- I'm thinking those guys simply buy an Epic Pass, and if they decide to come kind of closer to the last minute, they're going to have to be dealing with a lift ticket.
Rob,如果你看一下——你們目前通行證銷售的狀況,我是說,如果國際旅客回升,是否有可能帶來一些助力?我的意思是——我在想那些人基本上會買 Epic Pass;如果他們決定比較接近最後一刻才來,那他們就得面對買纜車票。
So I mean, is there any -- are there any learnings you look at and say, "Hey, there's a chance that international destination rebounds," that's going to be more helpful than getting a bunch of people closer to home that come last minute, if that makes sense?
所以我的意思是,有沒有任何觀察讓你覺得:「嘿,國際目的地旅遊有機會回升」,而這會比一堆臨時決定、在家附近最後一刻出行的人更有幫助?如果這樣說得通的話。
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, it does. I don't think that portion of the market would really be enough to actually drive the overall results for our pass program. I think as we talked about, certainly to the US international visitation has been down along with overall inbound travel and tourism into the US. So I think we're a part of that.
是的,說得通。我不認為那一部分市場的規模足以真正推動我們通行證計畫的整體結果。我想如我們所談到的,赴美的國際訪客人數確實下降,這也與整體入境旅遊與觀光到美國的趨勢一致。所以我們也是其中一部分。
And so the program is much smaller. I think for Whistler, it remains critical. And so absolutely, we could see -- I don't know that that's necessary -- it could be in a pass product, but it could be a lift ticket either way. But we do see, of course, for Whistler, it's a critical part of their business. But yes, I don't know that, that -- I don't know that we're anticipating any dramatic change certainly in the US for inbound international travel in the upcoming year.
因此那個計畫的規模小得多。我認為對 Whistler 來說,它仍然至關重要。所以當然,我們可能會看到——我不確定那是否一定會反映在通行證產品上,但不管怎樣也可能是纜車票。但我們確實看到,對 Whistler 而言,這是其業務的關鍵部分。不過是的,我不確定——我不認為我們預期在接下來一年,美國的入境國際旅遊會出現任何顯著變化。
Chris Woronka - Research Analyst
Chris Woronka - Research Analyst
Okay. Okay. Fair enough. And then a follow-up, much longer-term kind of strategic question. It's been a couple of tough years for the Australian season.
好。好。可以理解。接著一個追問,是更長期的策略性問題。澳洲雪季已經有幾年都很艱難了。
I mean is there any point at which you start to think that that's non-core in terms of friction costs and other things? I know the longer-term plan for you guys to maybe get more global, but it's obviously hard to do. So is there any point at which you think Australia becomes too much of a headwind?
我的意思是,有沒有哪個時間點你們會開始覺得,從摩擦成本(friction costs)與其他因素來看,那可能不再是核心業務(non-core)?我知道你們的長期計畫可能是更全球化,但顯然很難做到。所以有沒有哪個時間點你會覺得澳洲變成太大的逆風?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I don't think so at all because obviously, yes, they are -- they have ups and downs in their year just like a lot of other ski markets do, and it can be more variable certainly than the Rockies. But one of the things that we feel really good about was, yes, we're growing the pass program.
我完全不這麼認為,因為很明顯,是的,他們一年之中也會有起伏,就像許多其他滑雪市場一樣,而且波動性確實可能比落磯山脈(Rockies)更大。但我們覺得非常好的一點是:是的,我們正在擴大通行證計畫。
We grew it quite a bit last year. Obviously, this year, would be tougher following last year's challenging weather. But thinking about it more holistically on a long-term basis, now the more people we can get in the pass program there, the more we can funnel those folks into the US and into Canada.
我們去年成長了不少。很明顯,今年在去年具挑戰的天候之後會更艱難。但若以更整體、長期的角度來看,現在我們在那邊能讓越多人加入通行證計畫,就越能把這些人導流到美國與加拿大。
We are taking a long-term view on the international opportunity inbound into the US it's fairly depressed. I'm not sure that that's going to -- I'm not sure it's going to be like that forever, and we want to be well positioned for when -- yes, there's got to be greater visitation into the US.
我們對進入美國的國際入境旅遊機會採取長期觀點,目前確實相當低迷。我不確定這種情況會——我不確定它會永遠如此,我們希望在——是的,美國必然會迎來更多的到訪人次——到來時,能夠處於有利位置。
And so we do see them as a critical part of the network. And yes, very understanding of the ups and downs. And I would say if you look back over the time period since we did those acquisitions, yes, they have been incredibly -- have had incredible performance.
因此,我們確實將他們視為網路中的關鍵組成部分。而且,是的,我們非常理解其中的起伏。我會說,如果你回顧自我們進行那些收購以來的那段期間,是的,他們的表現一直非常——一直有著極為出色的表現。
And those -- that's been an incredible investment for us from the beginning in terms of what we've been able to create at those three resorts. So even as we sit today, even with a bad year, it's still been, yes, a really accretive investment for us.
而且,從一開始,就我們在那三座度假村所能打造的成果而言,那一直都是一項非常出色的投資。所以即便以今天來看,即便遇到一個不佳的年度,它仍然——是的——對我們而言仍是一項非常具增益性的投資。
Operator
Operator
Brandt Montour, Barclays.
Brandt Montour,巴克萊。
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Brandt Montour - Analyst
I wanted to circle back on the fiscal '27 guidance versus last year's original guidance and the ancillary expectations that are kind of -- well, one of the, I guess, the fastest growth driver you have into next year? And just wondering how you kind of get to the confidence around the ancillary given that destination frequency guests were the weakest pass segment.
我想回到財年'27指引相較於去年原始指引,以及附加收入(ancillary)的預期——我想這可能是你們進入明年最快的成長驅動因素之一?另外也想請教,鑑於目的地高頻旅客是最弱的通行證(pass)客群,你們如何建立對附加收入的信心?
And so I would just think logically, you'd get more sales from regionals and locals and perhaps folks that probably are showing up last minute and aren't going to utilize ancillary services. How do you think about that?
所以我只是從邏輯上想,你們應該會從區域型與本地客獲得更多銷售,或許還有一些可能臨時才出現、而不會使用附加服務的人。你們怎麼看這件事?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I mean what I would say is I think the destination frequency guest is -- I think what we've been trying to share is that, yes, they're buying less passes right now. Obviously, that's a group that bought -- really went up quite a bit over the last few years. But if you go back just a few years before that, they were all buying lift tickets.
我的意思是,我會說我認為目的地高頻旅客——我想我們一直試圖分享的是,是的,他們現在購買的通行證變少了。顯然,這個族群在過去幾年購買量——確實大幅上升。但如果你回到再早幾年,他們其實都是買纜車票(lift tickets)。
So we do see a lot of these folks coming back into the market as we think about, right, what the totality of this season is going to look like, both for us and for the industry.
因此,當我們思考——對——本雪季整體會是什麼樣子,無論對我們或對整個產業而言,我們確實看到其中許多人會回到市場。
And so as these people come in, yes, we think given what we're putting forward in terms of the experience, in terms of the product and price, in terms of what we've seen over the last couple of years, we feel good that we can, yes, grow capture and price within that market.
所以當這些人回來時,是的,我們認為,考量我們在體驗、產品與定價上所提出的內容,以及過去幾年的觀察,我們對於能在該市場提升——是的——滲透率(capture)與價格水準感到樂觀。
But yes, you're right. I mean, I think as we look -- really what this comes down to in a way and all these questions, is what do people think about the US ski industry for next year? And I think our view as we look backwards is that if we have a normal season, actually, there's often pent-up demand for people who didn't get a chance to ski last year who will come out.
但,是的,你說得對。我的意思是,我想當我們看——其實某種程度上,所有這些問題最後都回到:大家怎麼看明年美國滑雪產業?而我們回頭看的觀點是,如果我們有一個正常的雪季,實際上,往往會有一些被壓抑的需求:去年沒機會滑雪的人會出來。
And again, if you look over the history of the industry, all of these people have historically bought tickets. It's really been us that moved a portion of them into destination frequency low-frequency passes over the last few years.
而且再次,如果你看產業的歷史,這些人過去一直都是買票的。其實是我們在過去幾年把其中一部分人轉移到目的地高頻、低頻通行證產品上。
But long term, this has been a lift ticket market. And by the way, we've had such huge growth in that frequency product that, yes, even though we're down, as we go into next year, it's still incredible to have these folks that we do have locked in ahead of next season, and then we can focus on kind of lift ticket marketing for the rest.
但長期來看,這一直是一個以纜車票為主的市場。順帶一提,我們在那個頻次型產品上成長非常大,所以,是的,即便目前下滑,當我們進入明年時,能在下一雪季開始前就把這些人鎖定下來仍然非常了不起,然後我們就可以把重點放在其餘客群的纜車票行銷上。
So we do feel and our guidance assumes that, yes, we're going to see maybe not a full rebound to where we were and where the industry was in FY25. But from a visitation perspective, we'll get very close.
因此,我們確實認為,而且我們的指引也假設:是的,我們可能不會完全反彈回到FY25時我們與產業所處的水準。但就到訪人次(visitation)的角度,我們會非常接近。
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Brandt Montour - Analyst
That's helpful, Rob. And I just have one follow-up kind of on that thread, specifically destination guests. You guys call out weaker destination guests and it looks like you're hoping or you're planning for some of that to kind of bounce back. We look across our other consumer verticals, where a lot of us are in Las Vegas right now for a conference. Vegas visitation has been down for a while now because the product became very expensive.
這很有幫助,Rob。我還有一個延伸問題,沿著這個脈絡,特別是目的地旅客。你們提到目的地旅客較弱,看起來你們希望或規劃其中一部分能回升。我們觀察其他消費者垂直領域——我們很多人現在在拉斯維加斯參加會議——拉斯維加斯的到訪量已經下滑一段時間,因為產品變得非常昂貴。
You guys hold your pass product to very reasonable prices, but you're not in control of the entire vacation basket, right? So the question is flights, Airbnbs, resort prices, things that are outside of your control, how much of that is weighing on the overall vacation basket for your key destination consumers that is affecting their ability to come and ski that there's not much you can do about?
你們把通行證產品的價格維持在非常合理的水準,但你們並不掌控整個度假支出籃子(vacation basket),對吧?所以問題是:機票、Airbnb、度假村房價等你們無法控制的項目,有多少正在拖累你們關鍵目的地客群的整體度假支出籃子,進而影響他們來滑雪的能力,而這部分你們其實也無能為力?
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
So I think if you look at the upper income part of the travel sector, I think that part of the travel sector has been performing better and some of the challenges you're seeing are in other parts of the travel sector. But as I mentioned earlier, it's true that to the extent that the upper income part of the travel sector is going to be hit or because of the economy or other factors, certainly it will impact us.
所以我認為,如果你看旅遊產業中高收入族群那一段,我覺得那一段的表現一直比較好,而你看到的一些挑戰是在旅遊產業的其他部分。但如我先前提到的,確實,如果高收入族群的旅遊需求因經濟或其他因素而受到衝擊,當然也會影響到我們。
That said, I think that when you look at our results to date, I don't think that the results in passes are related to any kind of economic factors but are much more related to the weather challenges from last year and a lot of the -- more like less committed skier just not willing to commit as far in advance as we've recently gotten them to do.
話雖如此,我認為就我們目前的結果來看,我不認為通行證的結果與任何經濟因素有關,而更多是與去年天候挑戰有關,以及許多——更像是那些承諾度較低的滑雪者——不願意像我們近來讓他們做的那樣提早那麼久做出承諾。
And so they're going to make that decision closer to or in the season. I also think that, yes, to the extent there's any kind of economic issues, we tend to have more stability on that anyway because on the other side, we've got all these regional and local skiers. And candidly, where, yes, our overall vacation can be very cost competitive, even though, yes, there's other parts of the vacation that are expensive.
因此,他們會在更接近雪季開始時或在雪季中才做決定。我也認為,是的,若有任何經濟面的問題,我們在這方面通常也更具穩定性,因為在另一端,我們還有這些區域型與本地滑雪者。坦白說,即便——是的——度假的其他部分可能很昂貴,我們整體度假方案仍然可以非常具有成本競爭力。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer portion of today's call. I'd like to now turn the call back over to Rob Katz for closing remarks.
今天電話會議的問答環節到此結束。接下來我想把電話交回給Rob Katz作結語。
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Katz - Executive Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, everyone. In closing, fiscal 2026 tested our business in ways few seasons have before. Yet despite these challenges, we continue to strengthen the company, invest in our future and advance initiatives that we believe will drive growth for years to come.
謝謝各位。最後,2026財年以前所未有的方式考驗了我們的業務,這是少數雪季才會出現的情況。然而,儘管面臨這些挑戰,我們仍持續強化公司、投資未來,並推進我們相信將在未來多年帶動成長的各項計畫。
I also want to thank our employees across the organization. Their commitment to our guests, teams and resorts was on full display this past season, and their passion and execution continue to be one of our greatest competitive advantages.
我也要感謝我們組織內的所有員工。在剛過去的雪季,他們對賓客、團隊與度假村的投入展露無遺,而他們的熱情與執行力持續成為我們最重要的競爭優勢之一。
We enter fiscal 2027 with a stronger foundation, a clear strategy and a significant opportunity to further differentiate the Vail Resorts experience. While the near-term environment remains dynamic, our focus remains on execution, serving our guests and creating long-term value for our shareholders. Thanks for joining us today.
我們以更強健的基礎、清晰的策略,以及進一步差異化Vail Resorts體驗的重大機會,進入2027財年。儘管短期環境仍然多變,我們的重點仍在於落實執行、服務賓客,並為股東創造長期價值。感謝各位今天加入。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's Vail Resorts fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and year-end conference call and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.
謝謝。今天的Vail Resorts 2026財年第四季與全年財報電話會議及網路直播到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話,祝您有美好的一天。