MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the MGIC Investment Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Dianna Higgins, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到 MGIC Investment Corporation 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Dianna Higgins。請繼續。

Thank you, Justin. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Thank you for your interest in MGIC Investment Corporation. Joining me on the call today to discuss our results for the fourth quarter are Tim Mattke, Chief Executive Officer; and Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，賈斯汀。早上好，歡迎大家。感謝您對 MGIC Investment Corporation 的關注。今天與我一起討論我們第四季度業績的是首席執行官 Tim Mattke；和首席財務官 Nathan Colson。

Our press release, which contains MGIC's fourth quarter financial results was issued yesterday and is available on our website at mtg.mgic.com under Newsroom, includes additional information about our quarterly results that we will refer to during the call today. It also includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures.

我們的新聞稿包含 MGIC 的第四季度財務業績，已於昨天發布，可在我們的網站 mtg.mgic.com 的“新聞編輯室”下查閱，其中包括我們將在今天的電話會議中提及的有關我們季度業績的更多信息。它還包括將非 GAAP 財務指標與其最具可比性的 GAAP 指標進行核對。

In addition, we posted on our website a quarterly supplement that contains information pertaining to our primary risk in force and other information you may find valuable. As a reminder, from time to time, we may post information about our underwriting guidelines and other presentations or corrections to past presentations on our website.

此外，我們還在我們的網站上發布了季度增刊，其中包含與我們有效的主要風險相關的信息以及您可能認為有價值的其他信息。提醒一下，我們可能會不時在我們的網站上發布有關我們的承保指南和其他演示文稿或對過去演示文稿的更正的信息。

Before we get started today, I want to remind everyone that during the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations of the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed on the call today are contained in our 8-K that was also filed yesterday. If we make any forward-looking statements, we are not undertaking an obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. No one should rely on the fact that such guidance or forward-looking statements are current at any time other than the time of this call or issuance of our 8-K.

在我們今天開始之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議的過程中，我們可能會就我們對未來的期望發表評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。關於可能導致實際結果與今天電話會議上討論的結果大不相同的因素的更多信息包含在我們昨天提交的 8-K 中。如果我們做出任何前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔根據後續發展更新這些陳述的義務。除了本次電話會議或發布我們的 8-K 之外，任何人都不應依賴這樣一個事實：此類指導或前瞻性陳述在任何時候都是最新的。

With that, I now have the pleasure to turn the call over to Tim.

有了這個，我現在很高興將電話轉給蒂姆。

Thanks, Dianna. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report that we had another great quarter. And for that matter, we delivered exceptional financial results for the entire year while providing meaningful capital returns to our shareholders. Simply put, we have the best financial results in our 65-year history.

謝謝，戴安娜。大家，早安。我很高興地報告我們有另一個很棒的季度。就此而言，我們全年取得了出色的財務業績，同時為我們的股東提供了可觀的資本回報。簡而言之，我們擁有 65 年曆史上最好的財務業績。

We will get into details of the financial results throughout this call, but we again demonstrated the strength and flexibility of our capital position in the quarter and produced an annualized 16.9% return on equity. In the quarter, we earned $191 million of net income, an increase of 10% compared to the same period last year. For the full year, net income increased 36% to $865 million, an all-time high compared to $635 million in 2021. Insurance in force at the end of the quarter stood at more than $295 billion, a 7.6% increase from a year ago. The growth in insurance in force during the year reflects an increased persistency rate, offset by lower volumes of new insurance written.

我們將在本次電話會議中詳細介紹財務結果，但我們再次展示了本季度資本狀況的實力和靈活性，並產生了 16.9% 的年化股本回報率。本季度，我們實現了 1.91 億美元的淨收入，與去年同期相比增長了 10%。全年淨收入增長 36% 至 8.65 億美元，與 2021 年的 6.35 億美元相比創歷史新高。本季度末有效保險金額超過 2950 億美元，同比增長 7.6% .年內有效保險的增長反映了持續率的提高，但被新承保的保險數量減少所抵消。

Persistency increased to 80% at the end of the quarter, up from 63% a year ago. In the quarter, we wrote $13 billion of NIW, and we finished the year with $76 billion of NIW. Although the volume of NIW is lower than the record volumes for the prior 2 years, 2022 was another great year, the third largest year in our 65-year history. We expect the reduction in our NIW volume for the fourth quarter is a reflection of the smaller MI market but also reflective of our market position as we continue to take actions based on the increased risk in the current environment with a focus on the continued long-term success of our company.

本季度末，持久性從一年前的 63% 上升到 80%。在本季度，我們寫了 130 億美元的 NIW，到年底我們寫了 760 億美元的 NIW。儘管 NIW 的數量低於前兩年的創紀錄數量，但 2022 年是又一個偉大的年份，是我們 65 年曆史上第三大的一年。我們預計第四季度 NIW 數量的減少反映了較小的 MI 市場，但也反映了我們的市場地位，因為我們繼續根據當前環境中增加的風險採取行動，重點是持續的長期 -我們公司的長期成功。

Turning to the performance of our insurance in force portfolio. Approximately 80% of our insurance in force is from the 2020 and later book years and the credit quality of those books remain strong. To date, we have not seen a material change in credit performance in our portfolio overall. We remain encouraged by the continued favorable employment trends and the positive credit trends we continue to experience, including the low level of early payment defaults, which we believe is a good indicator of near-term credit performance.

轉向我們的有效投資組合的表現。我們大約 80% 的有效保險來自 2020 年及以後的帳簿年度，這些帳簿的信用質量仍然很高。迄今為止，我們還沒有看到我們的整體投資組合的信用表現發生重大變化。我們仍然對持續有利的就業趨勢和我們繼續經歷的積極信貸趨勢感到鼓舞，包括低水平的提前付款違約，我們認為這是近期信貸表現的良好指標。

I also want to highlight that the rapid home price appreciation experienced in the past couple of years allowed homeowners to build up significant equity. This equity, combined with the strong credit quality of our insured portfolio, should help reduce the incidence of claims on the related mortgages on much of our risk in force, even with the modest declines of home prices in recent months. Our comprehensive reinsurance program will also help mitigate potential losses.

我還想強調，過去幾年房價的快速上漲讓房主積累了大量資產。這種資產，再加上我們保險投資組合的強大信用質量，應該有助於降低我們大部分有效風險的相關抵押貸款索賠的發生率，即使最近幾個月房價略有下降。我們全面的再保險計劃也將有助於減輕潛在損失。

As a result of the strength and flexibility of our capital position during the year, we not only deployed capital to support new business and grow our insurance in force, we also paid $800 million in dividends from MGIC to the holding company. We used our strong capital position to repurchase most of the remaining convertible junior debentures due in (inaudible), repay MGIC's Federal Home Loan Bank advance and redeem our senior notes due in 2023, reducing our leverage ratio to approximately 12% in annual interest expense by $25 million.

由於我們年內資本狀況的實力和靈活性，我們不僅部署了資本來支持新業務和發展我們的有效保險，我們還從 MGIC 向控股公司支付了 8 億美元的股息。我們利用強大的資本狀況回購了（聽不清）到期的大部分剩餘可轉換初級債券，償還了 MGIC 的聯邦住房貸款銀行預付款，並贖回了我們於 2023 年到期的優先票據，將我們的槓桿率降低至年利息支出的約 12% 2500 萬美元。

We also returned approximately $500 million of capital to our shareholders through a combination of repurchasing common stock and paying common stock dividends, including a 25% increase in the quarterly dividend beginning in the third quarter.

我們還通過回購普通股和支付普通股股息相結合的方式向股東返還了大約 5 億美元的資本，包括從第三季度開始的季度股息增加 25%。

As I mentioned during last quarter's call, retiring debt and delevering has been a significant use of holding company cash in 2022. But with our debt-to-capital ratio and our target range and with the uncertainties and potential challenges in the economic environment in the near term, we continue to expect to retain higher levels of liquidity at the holding company. Our approach to capital management is dynamic so that we may continue to achieve our objectives in changing our stressed economic environment. We continually assess and evaluate the level of capital at both the operating company and holding company, including the level of capital that we retain for future deployment versus return to shareholders.

正如我在上一季度的電話會議中提到的，清償債務和去槓桿化是 2022 年控股公司現金的重要用途。但考慮到我們的債務資本比和目標範圍，以及經濟環境的不確定性和潛在挑戰短期內，我們繼續期望控股公司保持更高水平的流動性。我們的資本管理方法是動態的，因此我們可以繼續實現我們在改變壓力大的經濟環境方面的目標。我們不斷評估和評估運營公司和控股公司的資本水平，包括我們為未來部署保留的資本水平與股東回報。

As part of our assessment, we consider the operating environment we are or expect to be in. We strive to be prudent and thoughtful in our capital allocation decision-making so that both the operating company and the holding company are positioned to achieve success in varying environments.

作為我們評估的一部分，我們會考慮我們所處或預期所處的經營環境。我們努力在我們的資本配置決策中保持謹慎和周到，以便運營公司和控股公司都能夠在不同的領域取得成功環境。

Our balanced approach to capital management includes the use of forward commitment quota share reinsurance agreements and excess loss reinsurance agreements. These agreements reduce the volatility of losses in weaker economic environment and provide diversification and flexibility of sources of capital. Approximately 85% of our risk in force was covered to some extent by reinsurance transactions at the end of the fourth quarter. Drilling down further, approximately 97% of the risk in force relating to the 2020 and later books was covered to some extent by reinsurance transactions at the end of the fourth quarter.

我們平衡的資本管理方法包括使用遠期承諾配額份額再保險協議和超額損失再保險協議。這些協議減少了經濟環境疲軟時損失的波動性，並提供了資本來源的多樣化和靈活性。第四季度末，再保險交易在一定程度上覆蓋了我們約 85% 的有效風險。進一步深入，第四季度末的再保險交易在一定程度上覆蓋了與 2020 年及以後帳簿相關的約 97% 的有效風險。

We agreed to terms on a quota share agreement that will cover most of the policies written in 2023. This is in addition to the 15% quota share reinsurance agreement we already get in place to cover the 2023 NIW, bringing the total quota share that will cover most of the policies written in 2023 to 25%.

我們同意了一項配額份額協議的條款，該協議將涵蓋 2023 年制定的大部分保單。這是我們已經達成的涵蓋 2023 NIW 的 15% 配額份額再保險協議的補充，使總配額份額將將 2023 年制定的大部分政策覆蓋到 25%。

In light of the current economic environment and near-term uncertainties, let me take a few minutes to provide some detail on our approach to credit risk. We employ a comprehensive risk management framework that includes our proprietary risk-based pricing engine for the majority of our customers, MiQ. MiQ allows for frequent and granular pricing changes including those to address our view of emerging and evolving market conditions and risks. We take actions intended to manage the mix of our portfolio, including expected returns with a goal of positioning ourselves for continued success in changing environments.

鑑於當前的經濟環境和近期的不確定性，讓我花幾分鐘時間詳細介紹一下我們應對信用風險的方法。我們採用全面的風險管理框架，其中包括我們為大多數客戶提供的基於風險的專有定價引擎 MiQ。 MiQ 允許頻繁和精細的定價變化，包括那些滿足我們對新興和不斷變化的市場條件和風險的看法的變化。我們採取旨在管理我們投資組合組合的行動，包括預期回報，目標是讓我們自己在不斷變化的環境中取得持續成功。

The timing between taking actions and the resulting NIW is not immediate as pricing leads NIW by a month or 2 on average. So what you see in the Q4 NIW is primarily a reflection of our views of risk return from last fall. While we won't comment on current market positioning given competitive considerations, our internal analytics indicates that our lower Q4 NIW was likely impacted by both the smaller MI market and a market share that was down a couple of percentage points in the fourth quarter. Our market position continues to be defensive in recent months, which we expect will lead to further declines in our market share in the first quarter of 2023 and may be larger than the expected decline in the fourth quarter. We are comfortable with our actions and the results because it's reflective of our views of risk return while maintaining focus on our customer relationships and the continued long-term success of our company.

採取行動和產生 NIW 之間的時間並不是立即的，因為定價平均領先 NIW 一個月或 2 個月。因此，您在 Q4 NIW 中看到的主要反映了我們對去年秋季風險回報的看法。考慮到競爭因素，我們不會對當前的市場定位發表評論，但我們的內部分析表明，我們較低的第四季度 NIW 可能受到較小的 MI 市場和第四季度下降幾個百分點的市場份額的影響。近幾個月我們的市場地位繼續處於防御狀態，我們預計這將導致我們的市場份額在 2023 年第一季度進一步下降，並且可能比第四季度的預期下降幅度更大。我們對我們的行動和結果感到滿意，因為它反映了我們對風險回報的看法，同時繼續關注我們的客戶關係和我們公司的持續長期成功。

With that, let me turn it over to Nathan.

有了這個，讓我把它交給內森。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim mentioned, we had another strong quarter. We earned $191 million of net income or $0.64 per diluted share compared to $0.52 per diluted share during the fourth quarter last year. For the full year, we earned $865 million in net income compared to $635 million last year.

謝謝，蒂姆，早上好。正如蒂姆所說，我們有另一個強勁的季度。我們獲得了 1.91 億美元的淨收入或每股攤薄收益 0.64 美元，而去年第四季度為每股攤薄收益 0.52 美元。全年，我們的淨收入為 8.65 億美元，而去年為 6.35 億美元。

On an adjusted net operating income basis, we earned $2.91 per diluted share, a 52% increase from the $1.91 last year. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in our earnings release but the primary differences in the past 2 years have been losses on debt extinguishment from our debt reduction actions.

在調整後的淨營業收入基礎上，我們攤薄後每股收益為 2.91 美元，比去年的 1.91 美元增長了 52%。可以在我們的收益發布中找到 GAAP 淨收入與調整後淨營業收入的詳細對賬，但過去 2 年的主要差異是我們的債務削減行動導致的債務清償損失。

The results for the fourth quarter and the full year were reflective of continued strong credit performance, which has led to favorable loss reserve development and resulted in losses incurred being negative each quarter in 2022. Net losses incurred were negative $31 million in the fourth quarter compared to negative $25 million in the fourth quarter last year. For the full year, losses incurred were negative $255 million compared to $65 million last year.

第四季度和全年的業績反映了持續強勁的信貸表現，這導致了有利的損失準備金發展，並導致 2022 年每個季度發生的虧損為負。與去年同期相比，第四季度發生的淨虧損為負 3100 萬美元去年第四季度為負 2500 萬美元。全年虧損為負 2.55 億美元，而去年為 6500 萬美元。

Our review and reestimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $76 million of favorable loss reserve development compared to $141 million of favorable loss reserve development last quarter and $56 million of favorable loss reserve development in the fourth quarter of last year. The favorable development in the quarter was primarily related to new delinquencies from 2020 and 2021. As curate on those delinquencies continue to exceed our expectations, we have continued to adjust our ultimate loss expectations.

我們對先前拖欠的最終損失的審查和重新估計導致有利損失準備金發展為 7600 萬美元，而上一季度有利損失準備金發展為 1.41 億美元，去年第四季度有利損失準備金發展為 5600 萬美元。本季度的有利發展主要與 2020 年和 2021 年的新拖欠有關。由於對這些拖欠的處理繼續超出我們的預期，我們繼續調整我們的最終損失預期。

In the quarter, the delinquency inventory increased by 2% to 26,400 loans. In the quarter, we received 11,900 new delinquency notices compared to 11,000 last quarter and 13,700 in the fourth quarter of 2019 before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We continue to expect that the level of new delinquency notices may increase due to the seasoning of the large 2020 and 2021 vintages into what are historically the peak loss emergence years.

本季度，拖欠庫存增加了 2%，達到 26,400 筆貸款。在本季度，我們收到了 11,900 份新的拖欠通知，而上一季度為 11,000 份，在 COVID-19 大流行開始之前的 2019 年第四季度為 13,700 份。我們繼續預計，由於 2020 年和 2021 年的大年份進入歷史上出現虧損的高峰年份，新的拖欠通知水平可能會增加。

During the quarter, total revenues were $292 million compared to $294 million for the same period last year. For the full year, total revenue was $1.2 billion, flat with last year. Net premiums earned were $244 million in the quarter compared to $253 million last year. The decrease in net premium earned was primarily due to a decrease in accelerated single premium cancellation, increase in ceded premiums and a decrease in our premium yield, offset somewhat by growth in our insurance in force.

本季度總收入為 2.92 億美元，而去年同期為 2.94 億美元。全年總收入為 12 億美元，與去年持平。本季度的淨保費收入為 2.44 億美元，而去年同期為 2.53 億美元。已賺淨保費的減少主要是由於加速取消單筆保費的減少、分出保費的增加以及我們的保費收益率的下降，這在一定程度上被我們有效保險的增長所抵消。

The in-force premium yield was 38.9 basis points in the quarter, down 1/10 basis point from last quarter. The in-force portfolio yield reflects the premium rates in effect on our insurance in force and has been declining for some time, but the pace of decline has been slowing in recent quarters. With the smaller origination market, higher persistency and continued high credit quality for NIW that we expect in 2023, we expect the in-force premium yield to remain relatively flat during 2023.

本季度有效保費收益率為 38.9 個基點，較上季度下降 1/10 個基點。有效投資組合收益率反映了對我們有效保險有效的保費率，並且一段時間以來一直在下降，但最近幾個季度下降的速度一直在放緩。由於我們預計 2023 年 NIW 的發起市場較小、持久性較高且信用質量持續較高，我們預計有效保費收益率在 2023 年將保持相對平穩。

Book value per share increased 4.4% during the quarter to $15.82 from $15.16 last quarter and $15.18 at the end of 2021. Unrealized losses in the investment portfolio due to higher interest rates continue to be a headwind for book value per share, reducing book value per share by $1.39 at year-end, while unrealized gains on the investment portfolio added $0.47 per share last year. While higher interest rates are a headwind for book value per share in the short term, higher interest rates are a long-term positive for the earnings potential of the investment portfolio and that is starting to come through the results. The book yield on the investment portfolio ended the year at 3%, up 20 basis points in the fourth quarter and 50 basis points from the end of last year.

本季度每股賬面價值從上一季度的 15.16 美元和 2021 年底的 15.18 美元增長 4.4% 至 15.82 美元。由於較高的利率，投資組合中的未實現損失繼續成為每股賬面價值的不利因素，降低了每股賬面價值年末每股收益增加 1.39 美元，而去年投資組合的未實現收益每股增加 0.47 美元。雖然較高的利率在短期內對每股賬面價值不利，但較高的利率對投資組合的盈利潛力有長期的積極影響，而且這一點已經開始體現出來。投資組合的賬面收益率年末為 3%，第四季度上升 20 個基點，比去年底上升 50 個基點。

Sequentially, investment income was up approximately $4 million in the quarter and up $7 million from the fourth quarter of last year. Assuming a similar interest rate environment, we expect the book yield on the investment portfolio will continue to increase during the year and approach 3.5% by the end of 2023 as reinvestment rates remain significantly higher than the current book yield.

本季度投資收益環比增加約 400 萬美元，比去年第四季度增加 700 萬美元。假設利率環境相似，我們預計投資組合的賬面收益率將在年內繼續增加，到 2023 年底接近 3.5%，因為再投資利率仍遠高於當前的賬面收益率。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $74 million, up from $62 million last quarter and $46 million in the fourth quarter last year. For the full year, expenses were $249 million compared to $211 million last year. The increase in expenses during the fourth quarter compared to recent quarters was primarily due to higher pension settlement costs in the fourth quarter. Other factors impacting the full year expenses included higher performance-based compensation expense due to our exceptional financial results in 2022 as well as continued technology investments, particularly in our data and analytics infrastructures. We expect full year operating expenses will be down modestly in 2023 in the range of $235 million to $245 million.

本季度的運營費用為 7400 萬美元，高於上一季度的 6200 萬美元和去年第四季度的 4600 萬美元。全年支出為 2.49 億美元，而去年為 2.11 億美元。與最近幾個季度相比，第四季度的費用增加主要是由於第四季度的養老金結算成本較高。影響全年支出的其他因素包括由於我們 2022 年出色的財務業績以及持續的技術投資，特別是在我們的數據和分析基礎設施方面的持續技術投資，導致基於績效的薪酬支出增加。我們預計 2023 年全年運營費用將小幅下降，在 2.35 億美元至 2.45 億美元之間。

Turning to our capital management activities. Our priorities have been consistent and include maintaining the financial strength and flexibility of the holding company and deploying capital for growth at the writing company. For the holding company, this means maintaining a target level of liquidity in excess of near-term needs. At the operating company, it means maintaining a robust level of PMIERs excess that we expect will enable growth in changing operating environments.

轉向我們的資本管理活動。我們的優先事項始終如一，包括保持控股公司的財務實力和靈活性，以及為寫作公司的增長部署資本。對於控股公司而言，這意味著維持超過近期需求的目標流動性水平。在運營公司，這意味著保持穩健的 PMIER 過剩水平，我們預計這將在不斷變化的運營環境中實現增長。

During the fourth quarter, the capital levels at MGIC and liquidity levels at the holding company were above our targets, and we paid a $400 million dividend from MGIC to the holding company. Consistent with our capital strategy, we repurchased 6.1 million outstanding shares of common stock for a total cost of $80 million, and we paid a $0.10 per share dividend to our shareholders for a total of $30 million. The holding company ended the year with cash and investments of $647 million. In January of this year, we repurchased an additional 2.1 million shares for $28 million and our Board authorized a $0.10 per share common stock dividend payable on March 2.

第四季度，MGIC 的資本水平和控股公司的流動性水平高於我們的目標，我們從 MGIC 向控股公司支付了 4 億美元的股息。與我們的資本戰略一致，我們回購了 610 萬股流通在外的普通股，總成本為 8000 萬美元，我們向股東支付了每股 0.10 美元的股息，總計 3000 萬美元。該控股公司年底的現金和投資額為 6.47 億美元。今年 1 月，我們以 2800 萬美元的價格回購了額外的 210 萬股股票，我們的董事會授權於 3 月 2 日支付每股 0.10 美元的普通股股息。

At the end of January, we had $87 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization, which we expect to exhaust in the first half of 2023. Any additional share repurchase authorization will be determined in consultation with the Board. At the end of 2022, MGIC had $2.3 billion of available assets in excess of the PMIERs minimum requirements compared with a $2.2 billion excess at the end of 2021. Throughout 2022, MGIC's capital level was above our target. Consistent with our capital strategy, we received OCI approval and paid $800 million in dividends from MGIC to the holding company. Future dividends from MGIC to the holding company will also require OCI approval.

截至 1 月底，我們當前的股票回購授權剩餘 8700 萬美元，我們預計將在 2023 年上半年用完。任何額外的股票回購授權將與董事會協商確定。到 2022 年底，MGIC 的可用資產超過了 PMIER 的最低要求 23 億美元，而 2021 年底則超過了 22 億美元。在整個 2022 年，MGIC 的資本水平都高於我們的目標。與我們的資本戰略一致，我們獲得了 OCI 批准，並從 MGIC 向控股公司支付了 8 億美元的股息。 MGIC 未來向控股公司派發的股息也需要獲得 OCI 的批准。

As we mentioned last quarter, in the near term, we expect to retain higher levels of liquidity at the holding company. Part of the reason for maintaining higher levels of liquidity at the holding company is the outlook for future dividends from the operating company is more uncertain than in the past 18 months. We will evaluate future dividends to the holding company using a consistent framework, but if we experienced a more challenged economic environment for mortgage credit, that will impact our target capital levels, which could extend the time between dividends or reduce the amount of future dividends.

正如我們上個季度提到的，在短期內，我們預計控股公司將保持更高水平的流動性。控股公司保持較高流動性的部分原因是運營公司未來股息的前景比過去 18 個月更加不確定。我們將使用一致的框架評估未來對控股公司的股息，但如果我們經歷了更具挑戰性的抵押貸款經濟環境，那將影響我們的目標資本水平，這可能會延長股息之間的時間或減少未來股息的數額。

Our strong capital position entering 2022, combined with the exceptional financial results during the year, position us to reduce our debt outstanding by approximately $500 million, increased our quarterly shareholder dividend by 25%, reduced diluted shares by more than 10% and end the year with a stronger excess capital position relative to PMIERs than we started the year.

進入 2022 年，我們強大的資本狀況，加上年內出色的財務業績，使我們能夠減少約 5 億美元的未償還債務，將季度股東股息增加 25%，將稀釋後的股份減少 10% 以上，並在年底結束與我們今年年初相比，相對於 PMIER 的過剩資本頭寸更強。

With that, let me turn it back over to Tim.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回蒂姆。

Thanks, Nathan. Few additional comments before we open it up for questions. In January, under the direction of FHFA, the GSEs announced certain pricing changes effective May 1 of this year. Overall, we think the actions taken since October of 2022 have been directionally positive for low-down payment borrowers. At this point, we are uncertain what impact these changes will have on our overall business. However, we are supportive of efforts to facilitate access to low-down payment lending for first-time low- to moderate-income homebuyers. We look forward to continuing to work with FHFA, the GSEs and other industry key stakeholders to responsibly expand access to homeownership.

謝謝，內森。在我們打開它提問之前，很少有其他評論。 1 月，在 FHFA 的指導下，GSE 宣布了自今年 5 月 1 日起生效的某些定價變化。總體而言，我們認為自 2022 年 10 月以來採取的行動對低首付借款人來說是積極的。在這一點上，我們不確定這些變化將對我們的整體業務產生什麼影響。但是，我們支持努力為首次中低收入購房者提供低首付貸款。我們期待繼續與 FHFA、GSE 和其他行業主要利益相關者合作，以負責任的方式擴大獲得住房的機會。

As we look ahead into 2023, we do expect downward pressure on home prices to continue and further expect the overall market opportunity for new private mortgage insurance to be smaller compared to 2022. Even so, we remain encouraged by favorable demographics that suggest meaningful long-term MI opportunities. As we close out another record year, we have confidence in our transformed business model and believe that our strength and flexibility position us to continue to execute and deliver on our business strategies in 2023 and beyond to create value for all of our stakeholders.

展望 2023 年，我們確實預計房價的下行壓力將繼續存在，並進一步預計與 2022 年相比，新的私人抵押貸款保險的整體市場機會將更小。即便如此，我們仍然受到有利的人口統計數據的鼓舞，這些數據表明有意義的長期 -長期 MI 機會。在我們結束又一個創紀錄的年度之際，我們對轉型後的商業模式充滿信心，並相信我們的實力和靈活性使我們能夠在 2023 年及以後繼續執行和交付我們的業務戰略，為我們所有的利益相關者創造價值。

Lastly, we're often asked what differentiates us. First and foremost, it's our people. Our people have been the cornerstone of our accomplishments. Additionally, there's 65 years of industry thought leadership that we bring to the table. We listen, build partnerships, provide a superior customer experience and deliver quality offerings and solutions to our customers so that together, we can help borrowers to overcome the largest obstacle of homeownership, the down payment. Our commitment and ability to help borrowers achieve the dream of affordable and sustainable homeownership has never been stronger.

最後，我們經常被問到是什麼讓我們與眾不同。首先，這是我們的人民。我們的員工一直是我們成就的基石。此外，我們還提供了 65 年的行業思想領導力。我們傾聽、建立合作夥伴關係、提供卓越的客戶體驗並為我們的客戶提供優質的產品和解決方案，以便我們可以共同幫助借款人克服購房的最大障礙，即首付。我們幫助借款人實現負擔得起和可持續擁有房屋的夢想的承諾和能力從未如此強大。

With that, operator, let's take questions.

有了這個，接線員，讓我們提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Mark DeVries from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mark DeVries。

I had a question about how you're thinking about the alternative uses of your excess capital. One of your competitors announced an interesting acquisition this morning. Just I'm wondering what your latest thoughts are on using some of that capital to potentially diversify the business in ways that may either kind of dampen some of the cyclicality of your earnings and/or be accretive to returns or the multiple?

我有一個問題，關於您如何考慮您的過剩資本的替代用途。你的一個競爭對手今天早上宣布了一項有趣的收購。我只是想知道您最近的想法是如何使用部分資本以可能抑制您收入的某些週期性和/或增加回報或倍數的方式使業務多樣化？

Mark, it's Tim. I appreciate the question. It's something that we think about from an overall strategic standpoint. It's safe to say that on a routine basis, we consider alternative deployment of capital and whether it's diversification underlying. Quite frankly, we haven't seen opportunities that we think move the needle and that we think would be a benefit to the franchise and to our shareholders. That could change in the future, but to date, we have not really seen that.

馬克，我是蒂姆。我很欣賞這個問題。這是我們從整體戰略角度考慮的事情。可以肯定地說，在常規的基礎上，我們會考慮資本的替代配置以及它是否是多元化的基礎。坦率地說，我們還沒有看到我們認為會帶來積極影響並且我們認為會對特許經營權和我們的股東有利的機會。這在未來可能會改變，但迄今為止，我們還沒有真正看到這一點。

Okay. Got it. And then just one question. Nathan, I heard your comment that guidance for the in-force portfolio yield to be relatively flat in 2023. What's the outlook for the net premium yield? Should that kind of track that? Or is there still more pressure there?

好的。知道了。然後只有一個問題。內森，我聽到你的評論，即 2023 年有效投資組合收益率的指引將相對持平。淨保費收益率的前景如何？應該那種跟踪嗎？還是那裡還有更大的壓力？

Yes, Mark, I think the net premium yield, there's a couple of factors that are hard to forecast, whether that's accelerated single premiums or things like that. The one thing I would point you to is the ceded premium number was benefited in the year from our negative losses incurred, which drove profit commissions to be very high on those quota share deals. As loss levels return to more normal levels, certainly positive numbers versus negative numbers, that will have an impact on the profit commission, which was, I'd say, unusually large in 2022.

是的，馬克，我認為淨保費收益率有幾個因素很難預測，無論是加速的單期保費還是類似的東西。我要指出的一件事是，今年我們的負虧損使分出的溢價數量受益，這導致這些配額份額交易的利潤佣金非常高。隨著損失水平恢復到更正常的水平，肯定是正數與負數，這將對利潤佣金產生影響，我想說，2022 年利潤佣金異常大。

So I think that ceded premium number, all else equal is likely to increase a little bit, which would -- with a constant in-force premium yield number, that would lead the net premium yield to come down a little bit. But we'd also see the benefit then come through from the quota share on the loss line.

所以我認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，放棄的保費數字可能會增加一點，這將——在有效保費收益率數字不變的情況下，這將導致淨保費收益率略有下降。但我們也會看到收益來自損失線上的配額份額。

And our next question comes from Bose George from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Bose George。

So your commentary on market share suggested -- or just curious in terms of the commentary, is the decline that you're anticipating driven by your tighter underwriting or prices or a combination of both? Or just a little more color on that would be great.

因此，您對市場份額的評論表明——或者只是對評論感到好奇，您預期的下降是由更嚴格的承保或價格或兩者的結合驅動的嗎？或者只是多一點顏色會很棒。

No, I appreciate the question, Bose. And again, it's not exact time to be able to predict exactly where we are, but we feel like we have a pretty good handle on that it's not just market size. It's down that we we're probably down some share and want to call out probably even more so as we look to report on Q1.

不，我很欣賞這個問題，Bose。再一次，現在還不是準確預測我們所處位置的確切時間，但我們覺得我們對這不僅僅是市場規模有很好的把握。很低，我們可能會減少一些份額，並且希望在我們希望報告第一季度時呼籲更多。

I think it's safe to say that as I mentioned, MiQ allows us the ability to more granularly price -- express our views on risk into the marketplace through price as well as dimensions as far as the risk factors, but it's a combination of those. But I think the thing that I most likely think about in terms of risk return is what do you do to reflect the premium you need to get in return for the risk that you think that you're taking.

我認為可以肯定地說，正如我提到的那樣，MiQ 使我們能夠更精細地定價——通過價格以及風險因素的維度來表達我們對市場風險的看法，但它是這些的結合。但我認為，就風險回報而言，我最有可能考慮的事情是，你如何反映你需要獲得的溢價，以換取你認為你正在承擔的風險。

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. And then you noted that you maintain higher liquidity at the holding company. I mean, is there a way for us to kind of size that? What does that mean just so we can kind of triangulated to potential capital return?

好的。是的，這是有道理的。然後你注意到你在控股公司保持較高的流動性。我的意思是，我們有辦法確定它的大小嗎？這意味著什麼，我們可以對潛在的資本回報進行三角測量？

Yes, Bose, this is Nathan. I think what we were trying to call out there is throughout 2022, when we were getting the large dividends up, we were using that money very quickly, whether -- and a lot of debt reduction activities in particular. And that without that, as a need for cash right now at the holding company because our liquidity and leverage ratios are near our targets right now that we're -- we continue to repurchase shares in the fourth quarter and through January.

是的，Bose，我是 Nathan。我認為我們試圖在整個 2022 年呼籲的是，當我們獲得大量股息時，我們正在非常迅速地使用這筆錢，尤其是大量的債務削減活動。如果沒有這一點，由於我們的流動性和槓桿率現在接近我們的目標，因此控股公司現在需要現金——我們將在第四季度和一月份繼續回購股票。

As we said, we expect that we'll exhaust our repurchase authorization. But beyond that, repurchase activity and the dividend are things that we continually discuss with the Board. And I think in April or in Q1 and our earnings, we'll have a better update for you on what that looks like, both from a dividends from the OpCo up to the HoldCo with 3 more months of kind of performance and macroeconomic updates as well as what the go-forward plan is on repurchases.

正如我們所說，我們預計我們將用盡我們的回購授權。但除此之外，回購活動和股息是我們不斷與董事會討論的事情。而且我認為在 4 月或第一季度以及我們的收益，我們將為您提供更好的更新，從 OpCo 到 HoldCo 的股息以及 3 個月的業績和宏觀經濟更新以及回購的前瞻性計劃。

And our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I did want to ask about just delinquencies. Are we back to like just the normal cadence of delinquencies now just from regular way business, like nothing unusual going on there in terms of both (inaudible) or just new notices coming in? And does that mean the delinquency rate drifts a little higher from here as we enter those peak years of losses that you mentioned? Just trying to understand expectations around delinquency rate.

我確實想問一下拖欠情況。我們是否回到了正常的拖欠節奏，現在只是從常規方式的業務中，就像沒有什麼不尋常的事情發生在（聽不清）或只是新的通知方面？這是否意味著當我們進入您提到的那些損失高峰年時，拖欠率會從這裡漂移一點？只是想了解對拖欠率的預期。

Yes. Mihir, it's Nathan. I appreciate the question. I think as I mentioned in the opening remarks, the level of new notices is still down quite a bit from pre-COVID levels. So I think we're still really pleased with the level of credit performance, but I don't think we're seeing a lot of kind of direct COVID or unusual circumstance notices. I do think that this is becoming more just kind of regular way delinquencies that we've seen throughout time.

是的。米希爾，我是內森。我很欣賞這個問題。我認為正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，新通知的數量仍比 COVID 之前的水平低了很多。所以我認為我們仍然對信用表現水平感到非常滿意，但我認為我們沒有看到很多直接的 COVID 或異常情況通知。我確實認為這正變得越來越像我們一直以來看到的常規方式的拖欠。

In terms of where it trends, I think there's a couple of things. We do think that we're likely to see increased delinquencies out of the 2020 and 2021 books over time. They're entering their third and fourth years now of seasoning, and that's typically when we've seen the increase in delinquencies.

就它的趨勢而言，我認為有兩點。我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會看到 2020 年和 2021 年書籍的拖欠率有所增加。他們現在進入了第三年和第四年的調味期，而這通常是我們看到拖欠率增加的時候。

I think in terms of the impact on the delinquent inventory, some of the reason that it's remained as elevated as it is, is that the pace of paid claims is still very, very slow. And if the pace of paid claims starts to pick up, if foreclosure activity starts to pick up, we might see resolution from some of these long delinquent notices that we do expect will ultimately go to claim at a pretty high rate. And that could impact the size of the inventory, too.

我認為就拖欠庫存的影響而言，它仍然保持高位的部分原因是，支付索賠的速度仍然非常非常緩慢。而且，如果已支付索賠的速度開始加快，如果止贖活動開始加快，我們可能會從這些長期拖欠的通知中看到一些解決方案，我們確實預計這些通知最終會以相當高的比率進行索賠。這也可能影響庫存的規模。

So I think the other thing that we would have seen pre-COVID is more seasonality. I think a lot of that got really muted. But historically, the months of February, March, April are pretty strong seasonal months for credit. So I don't know if it's kind of monotonically increasing from this point. But we might see -- I think we do think it's relatively flat with maybe a slight increase as we've insured a lot more loans than we had pre-COVID and these books -- these large books get into their peak notice years in 2023 and 2024 here.

所以我認為我們在 COVID 之前會看到的另一件事是更具季節性。我認為其中很多都被靜音了。但從歷史上看，2 月、3 月、4 月是信貸旺盛的季節性月份。所以我不知道它是否從這一點開始單調增加。但我們可能會看到——我認為我們確實認為它相對持平，可能會略有增加，因為我們為比 COVID 之前和這些書籍更多的貸款提供保險——這些大型書籍在 2023 年進入通知高峰期和 2024 年在這裡。

Okay. And then maybe just going to expenses, if it's okay. For many, many years, MGIC was the market leader in terms of like just having the lowest expense ratio in the industry. 2023, on the other hand -- 2022, sorry, on the other hand, was quite different. Was there a little bit of a catch-up in 2022? And I guess the question is like I know you gave numbers for 2023, but I'm just talking about just more generally, is the expense philosophy a little different going forward? How are you thinking about that expense ratio? Just is there a target expense ratio you work towards? Just trying to understand like your philosophy around expenses because there does seem to be a little bit of a change.

好的。然後，如果可以的話，也許只是花錢。多年來，MGIC 一直是市場領導者，就像行業中費用率最低一樣。另一方面，2023 年——抱歉，2022 年完全不同。 2022 年有一點追趕嗎？我想這個問題就像我知道你給出了 2023 年的數字，但我只是在更籠統地談論，未來的支出理念是否有點不同？您如何看待該費用比率？您是否有一個目標費用率？只是想了解你關於費用的理念，因為似乎確實有一點變化。

Yes. No, I appreciate the question, Mihir. I'll start and Nathan can chime in if he wants to. I think it's safe to say that over the last couple of years, we felt it important to invest in the platform over the long run. Part of that is to make sure we invest on the actual technology platforms that are legacy, but a big part of it is investing in our data and analytical capabilities that we think are critical as the industry continues to evolve.

是的。不，我很欣賞這個問題，Mihir。我先開始，如果 Nathan 願意的話，他可以插話。我認為可以肯定地說，在過去幾年中，我們認為從長遠來看對平台進行投資很重要。其中一部分是為了確保我們投資於傳統的實際技術平台，但其中很大一部分是投資於我們認為隨著行業不斷發展而至關重要的數據和分析能力。

As Nathan called out sort of the biggest headwind in Q4 was really related to the pension expense and really, that's coming from the discount rate moving up there as much as anything. So I think you should think about us as continuing to be very focused and disciplined on expenses. I think Nathan talked about where we think we'll be in '23. It's a reflection of us wanting to exercise discipline around expenses because we do believe that over the long run, within this industry, being good stewards of how you spend dollars is very important although you have to do it. You have to invest in the platform to make sure that you can continue to progress and grow over the long run.

正如 Nathan 所說，第四季度最大的逆風確實與養老金支出有關，實際上，這來自貼現率的上漲。所以我認為你應該認為我們繼續非常專注和嚴格控制開支。我想 Nathan 談到了我們認為我們將在 23 年達到的水平。這反映了我們希望在開支方面實行紀律，因為我們確實相信，從長遠來看，在這個行業中，成為你如何花錢的好管家非常重要，儘管你必須這樣做。您必須對該平台進行投資，以確保您能夠長期持續進步和發展。

So I wouldn't say a change in philosophy as much as the recognition that we have to invest to grow over the long run to be as competitive as we can in the marketplace, but we want to do that in a very thoughtful manner.

因此，我不會說理念上的改變，而是承認我們必須投資以實現長期增長以在市場上盡可能具有競爭力，但我們希望以一種非常周到的方式做到這一點。

Got it. And then just my last question. Just within more and more mortgage companies offering higher interest rate, buydowns and things like that, do you underwrite those differently? How do you think that some of those kinds of, I guess, innovations will impact the credit performance longer term?

知道了。然後是我的最後一個問題。越來越多的抵押貸款公司提供更高的利率、買斷和類似的東西，你是否以不同的方式承保？我猜，您認為其中一些創新將如何長期影響信用表現？

No, it's a good question, Mihir. And it's innovation or it's -- I think the concern would be a return to what we've seen before. I think the good news is buydowns, I think we'll get a lot of press. I think rightfully so, as we -- hopefully, people have long memories. The good news is for anything that we underwrite their buydowns, normally, those are qualifying, assuming that there is no buydown. So qualifying that at the sort of the full rate. So that makes us -- give a certain comfort level over that there's not undue risk being put into that loan.

不，這是個好問題，Mihir。它是創新，或者是——我認為關注的是回到我們以前看到的樣子。我認為好消息是買斷，我認為我們會得到很多報導。我認為這是正確的，因為我們——希望人們有很長的記憶力。好消息是，對於我們承銷他們的買斷的任何東西，通常情況下，假設沒有買斷，這些都是合格的。因此，以全速進行排位賽。所以這讓我們 - 給予一定程度的安慰，因為該貸款沒有不當風險。

Always have some concern about payment shock example. But if they're underwritten with the thought that there is not the buydown in there, that goes a long way towards making sure that you have a borrower who cannot only get in the home but can sustain that at a level. So I feel generally comfortable about what's happening in that aspect of the market right now.

總是對支付沖擊的例子有些擔憂。但是，如果他們認為那裡沒有買斷，那將大大有助於確保您的借款人不僅可以進入房屋，而且可以維持在一定水平。因此，我對目前市場這方面發生的事情總體上感到滿意。

And our next question comes from Doug Harter from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Doug Harter。

Just one more on the market share outlook. Just wondering if there's anything that's kind of changed in your view that's leading to that, whether it's kind of your outlook on credit quality or your outlook on kind of the competitive dynamics that kind of led to this happening kind of 4Q and into '23?

關於市場份額前景的更多信息。只是想知道您的觀點是否有任何改變導致這種情況，無論是您對信用質量的看法還是您對導致這種情況的第 4 季度和 23 年發生的競爭動態的看法？

Yes. I think, Doug, it's really -- it's a matter of our view is that home prices are actually falling right now. I think we're all hopeful that unemployment doesn't spike up, but we are in a more stressful environment. We think our premium rates should reflect that. And we're okay if we lose some share because of that. Ultimately, we want to make sure we're getting the right return in our views of what we need to have to cover that risk. MiQ gives us a great ability to do that and do that in a real-time basis. And so we feel very comfortable with it.

是的。我認為，道格，這真的——我們認為房價現在實際上正在下跌。我認為我們都希望失業率不會飆升，但我們所處的環境壓力更大。我們認為我們的保費率應該反映這一點。如果我們因此而失去一些份額，我們也沒關係。最終，我們希望確保我們在我們認為需要承擔風險的情況下獲得正確的回報。 MiQ 使我們能夠實時地做到這一點。所以我們對此感到非常舒服。

And again, it's for a company that has a lot of strong customer relationships, we want to win as much business as we can, but we also want to be very disciplined about making sure that we're getting the appropriate return for deploying that capital.

再一次，對於一家擁有很多強大客戶關係的公司來說，我們希望贏得盡可能多的業務，但我們也希望非常自律，以確保我們獲得適當的回報來部署該資本.

And our next question comes from Geoffrey Dunn from Dowling.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dowling 的 Geoffrey Dunn。

A couple of questions. First, with respect to your guidance on the core premium rate being stable for '23, if we look at your disclosure on the MRA charge on new risk, it was climbing over the 4 quarters coming up to Q4. So I would guess that there was a mix shift benefit to your premium rate that's helping that stabilization. But this quarter, it dropped down as you -- it looks like maybe it became tighter on your credit.

幾個問題。首先，關於你對 23 年核心保費率穩定的指導，如果我們看看你對新風險 MRA 費用的披露，它在第四季度的四個季度中一直在攀升。所以我猜想你的保費率有一個混合轉移的好處，這有助於穩定。但是這個季度，它隨著你而下降——看起來你的信用可能變得更緊了。

If that rate stays low below 7%, is that something where as it builds throughout the year, we'd expect the core premium rate to then decline again in '24? How does that mix shift and MRA charge act as a bit of a guidance for where that core rate might go?

如果該利率保持在 7% 以下的低水平，那麼它是否會在全年建立，我們預計核心保費率將在 24 年再次下降？這種混合轉變和 MRA 收費如何作為核心利率可能走向的指導？

Yes, Geoff, it's Nathan. I think you're calling out a really important factor there that the mix does matter a lot for the overall in-force premium yield. I think one factor that may cause it not to have as big of an impact next year is just that we don't expect that the market will be as large, so we won't be writing as much volume. But I think -- I would think about that guidance as kind of indexed to maybe the back half of 2022 business, so maybe somewhere in between the mix of business that we wrote in the third and fourth quarter, so something around that 7% level.

是的，傑夫，我是內森。我認為你在那裡指出了一個非常重要的因素，即混合對於整體有效保費收益率確實很重要。我認為可能導致它明年不會產生那麼大影響的一個因素就是我們預計市場不會那麼大，所以我們不會寫那麼多的書。但我認為——我認為該指引可能與 2022 年下半年的業務掛鉤，因此可能介於我們在第三季度和第四季度編寫的業務組合之間，所以大約在 7% 左右.

So if we were writing business that was well below that or well above that. But I think even the third and fourth quarter is at 10, 20, 30 basis points on either side of that 7%, I think that's still kind of within the range that we'd be comfortable with that flat guidance.

因此，如果我們寫的業務遠低於或高於該水平。但我認為即使是第三季度和第四季度在 7% 的兩側都有 10、20、30 個基點，我認為這仍然在我們對持平指導感到滿意的範圍內。

Okay. And then I was wondering if it were possible to help simplify the impact on credit from the equity build-up in the portfolio. Obviously, a number of people, including myself, I think we're heading into some sort of recession type of scenario in which you would normally see notices go up, incidence assumptions go up, claim severity assumptions go up. If I painted in an environment where it was a 10% incidence assumption, but then you adjusted that for how much equity is built up in your existing book, is that something you can help frame up all of a sudden, if that 10% become 9.5% or 10% become 9% simply because of the benefits from the equity?

好的。然後我想知道是否有可能幫助簡化投資組合中股權積累對信貸的影響。顯然，很多人，包括我自己，我認為我們正在進入某種衰退類型的場景，在這種情況下，您通常會看到通知增加，發生率假設上升，索賠嚴重性假設上升。如果我在一個假設發生率為 10% 的環境中作畫，然後你根據現有書籍中建立的公平程度進行了調整，如果這 10% 成為9.5%或10%變成9%僅僅是因為股權帶來的好處？

Geoff, I think I'll start, Tim, I mean, I'll have to think a little bit more and probably won't be able to answer it as precisely as the question. It's obviously -- it's something we think about. I mean, from an overall standpoint, it's obviously fair to say that the mark-to-market LTVs have continued to improve and are probably sub-70% to the end of the year.

傑夫，我想我會開始，蒂姆，我的意思是，我必須多考慮一點，可能無法像問題一樣準確地回答它。很明顯——這是我們考慮的事情。我的意思是，從整體的角度來看，可以公平地說，按市值計價的 LTV 持續改善，到年底可能低於 70%。

The way we think about it, though, is there's good home price appreciation for a good chunk of our book, especially before interest rates started to rise. The back half of '22 is probably somewhere around 10% of our in force. So that feels like it's got -- doesn't have the same embedded home price appreciation in it. And so it really feels like you're looking at 2 different sort of groupings of loans to a certain extent that could respond a little bit differently depending upon home price path, unemployment.

不過，我們考慮的方式是，我們書中的很大一部分房價都有很好的升值，尤其是在利率開始上升之前。 22 年的後半部分可能占我們總人數的 10% 左右。所以感覺就像它 - 沒有相同的嵌入式房價升值。因此，在某種程度上，你真的感覺像是在看兩種不同類型的貸款，它們的反應可能會有所不同，具體取決於房價走勢、失業率。

But all of it underlying is, again, we're in a business where when home prices if they decline and if there is unemployment challenges, those confer losses. I think to your point, built-in equity helps mitigate that. And so we feel really good about having built in equity in a lot of our book of business because that goes a long way towards not only reducing severity on anything that would come in, but also, quite frankly, reducing incidents because it will now return into a claim because there's other ways to resolve of homeowner not being able to pay their mortgage.

但是，所有這一切都再次表明，我們所處的行業是，當房價下跌並且存在失業挑戰時，這些都會帶來損失。我認為就您而言，內在資產有助於緩解這種情況。因此，我們對在我們的許多業務簿中建立公平性感到非常高興，因為這不僅有助於降低任何可能發生的事情的嚴重性，而且坦率地說，還可以減少事故，因為它現在會回來進入索賠，因為還有其他方法可以解決房主無法支付抵押貸款的問題。

Okay. And then just last question. Nathan, was the incident rate unchanged at 8% this quarter? And can you also provide your average new money yield?

好的。然後是最後一個問題。 Nathan，本季度的事故率是否保持在 8% 不變？您能否也提供您的平均新貨幣收益率？

Yes, there was no change in the new notice claim rate. And then I'm sorry, Geoff, the second part of the question, are you referring to the investment portfolio?

是的，新通知索賠率沒有變化。對不起，傑夫，問題的第二部分，你指的是投資組合嗎？

Yes. I'm sorry, new money yield on investments.

是的。對不起，新的投資收益。

Yes. So in kind of the noncash portion of the portfolio and the core investment portfolio was more like 5.5%.

是的。因此，投資組合和核心投資組合的非現金部分更像是 5.5%。

And our next question comes from Eric Hagen from BTIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

Curious if you would say there's any meaningful catalyst away from lower mortgage rates, which could lead to lower persistency and, call it, the near term. And in that near term, do you think we could get a nice pop in housing demand, especially from first-time buyers if mortgage rates fall even just a little bit.

很好奇你是否會說降低抵押貸款利率有任何有意義的催化劑，這可能導致較低的持久性，並稱之為短期。在短期內，如果抵押貸款利率下降一點點，你認為我們的住房需求會大幅增加嗎，尤其是首次購房者的需求。

Yes. I think from a persistency standpoint, we're at 80% now. I think run rate is higher than that. It could get into the low to mid-80s, that is what we would say. From a refi, if rates go down, there's just not a lot of loans that have been done that would be sort of in a range that would be want and willingness to refi. So I think there could be challenges to that persistency, but not -- I don't see a lot in the -- especially in the very short term here because you're really talking about our portfolio in the back half of the year, which I said was -- is probably 10% of our overall in-force that might have some ability if rates drop down closer to 5% as an example, but not a lot of built-up equity at that point either.

是的。我認為從持久性的角度來看，我們現在達到了 80%。我認為運行率高於此。它可能會進入 80 年代中期，這就是我們所說的。從再融資來看，如果利率下降，那麼已經完成的貸款並不多，而這些貸款在某種程度上是需要和願意再融資的。所以我認為這種持久性可能會面臨挑戰，但不會 - 我沒有看到很多 - 特別是在短期內，因為你真的在談論我們在今年下半年的投資組合，我說的是 - 例如，如果利率下降接近 5%，可能有 10% 的員工可能具有一定的能力，但到那時也沒有太多的累積資產。

So I think that's something that we feel good about the persistency of the book running forward. And Eric, remind me the second half of your question.

因此，我認為這本書的持續性讓我們感覺良好。埃里克，提醒我你問題的後半部分。

Demand for housing, especially from first-time buyers on the back of lower mortgage rates.

住房需求，尤其是在抵押貸款利率較低的背景下首次購房者的需求。

Yes. I think as I said in the opening comments, demographics still remain strong over the long run. And we still think there's a lot of pent-up demand for first-time home buyers. I think when rates rose as quick as they did, that has people stand by the sidelines, especially when you consider how much home prices that went up, so affordability gets stretched. I think once you get past the sticker shock of the higher interest rate and you look back and say, okay, do I feel comfortable in my job? Do I have a life event? Is it the right time to purchase the home? That shock of the higher interest rates, which just gets closer to longer-term sort of historical norms becomes less of an issue.

是的。我認為正如我在開場評論中所說，從長遠來看，人口統計數據仍然保持強勁。而且我們仍然認為首次購房者有很多被壓抑的需求。我認為，當利率上漲得如此之快時，人們就會袖手旁觀，尤其是當你考慮到房價上漲了多少時，負擔能力就會捉襟見肘。我想一旦你度過了高利率帶來的衝擊，然後回過頭來看，好吧，我對自己的工作感覺舒服嗎？我有人生大事嗎？現在是買房的好時機嗎？更高利率的衝擊，只是更接近長期的歷史規範，變得不再是一個問題。

And to the extent that home prices have come down a little bit and certain markets make it more affordable to that combination. So again, I think over the long run, really attractive for first-time homebuyers and ultimately, that's a big chunk of our market. I think there is just a little bit of sticker shock with affordability with both the double whammy of home price appreciation and rates. But I think that moderates over time, quite frankly.

在某種程度上，房價已經下降了一點，某些市場使這種組合更容易負擔得起。因此，我再次認為，從長遠來看，這對首次購房者真的很有吸引力，最終，這是我們市場的很大一部分。我認為，在房價上漲和利率的雙重打擊下，負擔能力會受到一點點衝擊。但坦率地說，我認為這會隨著時間的推移而緩和。

Yes. That's helpful. And then following up on the GSE changes. Can you talk about how much demand you've typically seen for the cohorts where they cut the fees the most? And then kind of (inaudible) that same point, like, can you talk about how much risk layering you guys have typically done in the 90-plus LTV bucket?

是的。這很有幫助。然後跟進 GSE 的變化。你能談談你通常看到的對他們削減費用最多的群體的需求有多少嗎？然後有點（聽不清）同樣的觀點，比如，你能談談你們通常在 90 多個 LTV 桶中進行多少風險分層嗎？

Yes. We try to look at all the fee changes really combined, looking at what the GSEs did from October. And so it's safe to say that a good chunk of our book gets affected by it. I think you put it all together, I don't think we feel like there's a very material change in what ultimately might flow to MI versus other sort of execution, some changes within the different categories, but it doesn't feel like it's dramatically expanded or narrowed the box of what would come to private MI.

是的。我們試圖查看所有實際合併的費用變化，查看 GSE 從 10 月開始所做的事情。因此可以肯定地說，我們書中的很大一部分內容都受到了它的影響。我想你把它們放在一起，我認為我們覺得最終可能流向 MI 的東西與其他類型的執行相比沒有太大的變化，不同類別中的一些變化，但感覺並不顯著擴大或縮小了私人 MI 的範圍。

Yes. And in that 90-plus LTV bucket, how much risk flaring have you guys typically done there?

是的。在那個 90 多個 LTV 桶中，你們通常在那裡做了多少風險燃燒？

Yes. Eric, it's Nathan. I mean most of our business is done at the 90 LTV and above. So I think when we think about risk layering, we think about it as combinations of the highest LTV, so say, 97 LTV with higher DTI or lower FICO or things like that. And on some of those dimensions, if you look at above 45 DTI, for instance, and 97 LTV and below 680 FICO, the amount of business that we do that has, say, 2 of those factors is in the low single digits. I don't have it exactly in front of me, but maybe 3% or 4% of our new businesses in that category. So not a lot of business, but if you include kind of 90 LTVs and up, that's most of what we do just given the space that we operate in.

是的。埃里克，我是內森。我的意思是我們的大部分業務都是在 90 LTV 及以上完成的。所以我認為，當我們考慮風險分層時，我們將其視為最高 LTV 的組合，比如 97 LTV 與更高的 DTI 或更低的 FICO 或類似的東西。在其中一些維度上，例如，如果您查看 45 DTI 以上和 97 LTV 以及 680 FICO 以下，我們所做的業務量具有，比如說，其中 2 個因素是低個位數。我並沒有把它擺在我面前，但可能有 3% 或 4% 的新業務屬於該類別。所以業務不多，但如果你包括 90 種 LTV 及以上，這就是我們所做的大部分工作，只是考慮到我們運營的空間。

And I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Tim for closing remarks.

我不再提出更多問題。我現在想把電話轉回給蒂姆作結束語。

Thanks, Justin. I thank everyone for their interest (inaudible) MGIC. I thank all of our coworkers for another phenomenal year. And being Groundhog Day, hope that Punxsutawney Phil (inaudible) with only 6 more weeks to winter. Thanks, everyone.

謝謝，賈斯汀。我感謝大家對 MGIC 的興趣（聽不清）。我感謝我們所有的同事又度過了非凡的一年。作為土撥鼠日，希望 Punxsutawney Phil（聽不清）離冬天只有 6 週。感謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。