Mettler-Toledo International Inc (MTD) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our third-quarter 2016 Mettler-Toledo International earnings conference call. My name is Jennifer, and I will be your audio coordinator for today.

(Operator Instructions)

I would now like to turn our presentation over to your hostess for today's call, Ms. Mary Finnegan. Please proceed, ma'am.

Thanks, Jennifer and good evening, everyone. I am Mary Finnegan. I am the Treasurer and responsible for investor relations at Mettler-Toledo and happy that you are joining us tonight. I am joined by Olivier Filliol, our CEO; and Bill Donnelly, our Executive Vice President.

I need to cover just a couple of administrative matters. The call is being webcast, and is available for replay on our website. A copy of the press release and the presentation that we will refer to on today's call is also available on our website.

Let me summarize the Safe Harbor language, which we have on page 2 of the presentation. Statements in this presentation, which are not historical facts, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Securities Act of 1933, and the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements involve risk, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause our actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements.

For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please see our Form 8-K. All of the forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the factors discussed under the caption, factors affecting our future operating results, and in the management discussion and analysis of financial condition, and results of operations in our Form 10-K.

Just one other thing. On today's call we may use non-GAAP financial measures. More detailed information with respect to the use of and the differences between non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP measure is provided in our Form 8-K. I will now turn the call over to Olivier.

Thank you, Mary, and welcome to everyone on the call. I will start with a summary of the quarter, and then Bill will provide details on our financial results and guidance. I will then have some additional comments before we open the lines for Q&A.

The highlights for the quarter are on page 3 of the presentation. Let me start by saying it was a very good quarter, and it reflected strong strategy execution by our teams around the globe. Local currency sales growth was 9% in the quarter, with broad-based growth in all regions and most product lines. Demand in the Americas and Europe was very good. Asia, rest of the world did particularly well, with good growth in China, and strong growth and most other countries in this region.

We are very happy with these results, which reflect solid market conditions, and as already mentioned, continued strong execution of our strategies. With the benefit of our margin and cost initiatives, we have good growth in margins, which contributed to excellent growth in earnings per share. Cash flow was also quite good in the quarter. We are very happy with our performance as well, our outlook for the remainder of the year, and 2017.

Before I turn it to Bill to cover the numbers, let me comment on the management changes that we announced today. Many of you have met Shawn Vadala, most recently at our investor meeting in California in July. He has worked with Bill for almost 20 years, and was promoted to CFO three years ago.

Shawn is highly respected within our organization, for his knowledge of our business and its processes, as well as his business acumen. Shawn has been a key contributor to many of our margin enhancement programs. For example, pricing has been an important profit driver for us, and Sean has led our efforts in pricing since the beginning.

Shawn has also played an important role in helping effectively shape the resource allocation within the organization to within our strategic priorities of the faster-growing more profitable businesses. Shawn has also worked closely with me to initiate our big data analytics program. For the next 12 months, we expect Shawn to continue to focus on his existing responsibilities, and you will gradually see him more on the investor relations front beginning in about a year from now.

Some of you have also met Oliver Wittorf at our investor meeting. Oliver has been with us for 13 years, and has one of the most diverse careers within our management team.

Oliver has held a number of important roles, including being Head of Operations for our Boston-based process analytics business. He was a project lead in China for our Blue Ocean program, and for the last few years, he has held our global supply chain team lead, which included our very successful procurement programs, and the establishment of our regional hubs. He will keep his supply chain responsibilities, and take over daily responsibility for IT and Blue Ocean. He is ideally suited for this expanded role within the organization.

I am confident that both Shawn and Oliver have the experience and track record to be strong contributors to our executive team, and to further the development of the finance, supply chain, IT and Blue Ocean functions within our organization. I have worked with both of them over many years, and look forward to many more years with them in their expanded roles.

From an investor perspective, very little will change over the next 12 months, and Bill and Mary will remain your principal contacts. Bill will gradually reduce his time commitments, and beginning in 2018, Bill will begin to hand over the Investor Relations activities to Shawn and ensure a smooth transition. Mary will continue in her role in Investor Relations and Treasury, and continue to be your day-to-day contact.

Finally, I want to express how pleased I am that we have orchestrated a smooth and well-planned succession for Bill, and that we can continue to leverage Bill's unique contribution to the company for another two years. Bill has demonstrated his great leadership in nurturing his successors, and also in working with me to make this a gradual transition, which I'm very grateful for. Let me hand it over now to Bill.

Thanks, Olivier, and hello, everybody. Let me reiterate or reinforce Olivier's last point. I'm pleased about the transition we put in place.

I'm proud that we have developed these two strong highly capable leaders in Shawn and Oliver. Further, I'm happy to continue to serve this great Company and help drive its development for the coming two years, and of course, I also look forward to working with all of you.

Now let me come back to the quarter and cover the financials. Sales were $650.6 million in the quarter. That's an increase of 9% in local currency. The Troemner acquisition contributed about 1% to that growth. On a dollar basis, our sales grew by 8% as currencies reduced sales by about 1% in the quarter.

On slide number 4, you have a local currency sales growth for the third quarter. Our sales grew 7% in the Americas, 8% in Europe, and 11% in Asia rest of world. America's growth excluding Troemner was about 6%.

In the next slide, we provide year-to-date local currency sales growth, which was 6%. By region, Americas had a growth of 7%. Europe is 4%, and Asia rest of world has increased 8% on a year-to-date basis.

Now on to slide number 6, we outline sales growth by product area for the quarter. Lab had good growth with local currency sales growth of 9%, of which approximately 2% was from Troemner. Industrial increased by 8%, and food retailing increased by 13%. All these comparisons are versus the prior year.

The next slide summarizes year-to-date sales by product line. Lab had a local currency sales growth of 8%. Industrial, 5% and food retailing, 6%.

Now to slide number 8. Let me walk you through the key items in our P&L for the quarter.

Our gross margins were 56.8%. That's a 60 basis point improvement over the prior-year amount of 56.2%. Pressing and material costs decreased, as pricing increases and material cost decreases contributed to the improved margin, which was offset in part by some targeted investments in our service business, as well as an unfavorable mix.

R&D amounted to $30.1 million. That's a 6% increase in local currency. SG&A amounted to $187.7 million. That's an increase of 8% in local currency over the prior year.

Higher variable comp, largely explained by assumed higher performance against our budget targets, as well as investments in our Field Turbo program were offset by cost savings in other parts of the business. Adjusted operating income was $151.7 million in the quarter. That's a 13% increase over the prior-year amount of $134.3 million.

Currencies benefited operating profit by $1.5 million, and, yes, that was not a typo. We had a currency benefit this quarter, the first one in some time. Adjusted operating margins were 23.3%, that's 110 basis point increase over the prior year.

A couple of comments to the P&L. Our amortization was $9.1 million, while our interest expense was $7.2 million. Our effective tax rate continued to be 24%. Our fully-diluted shares for the quarter were $26.9 million, that's a 4.4% decline from the prior year, reflecting the impact of our share repurchase program.

Adjusted earnings per share was $3.89 per share, a 19% increase over the prior-year amount of $3.26 per share. On a reported basis, earnings-per-share was $3.77, as compared to $3.16 in the prior year. Reported EPS includes $0.04 of restructuring, $0.05 of purchased intangible amortization, and $0.03 of acquisition transaction costs related to Troemner.

The next slide shows the year-to-date P&L. We had local currency sales growth of 6%, operating income increased by 9%, and adjusted earnings per share increased by 15%.

Now taking a look at cash flow. In the quarter free cash flow amounted to $125.6 million, as compared to $107.1 million in the prior year. We remain pleased with working capital management, and achieved further improvements in DSO.

ITO was 4.6, which was flat with last quarter. Cash flow on a year-to-date basis amounted to $263.7 million. That's an increase of 16% on a per-share basis. For the year, we expect free cash flow in the $380 million range.

Now let's turn to guidance. We are raising our full-year 2016 local currency sales guidance to approximately 6%, versus 5% previously. This reflects organic growth of approximately 5.5%, and about 50 basis point of sales growth from the Troemner acquisition.

We have also raised our earnings per share guidance and now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $14.61 per share to $14.66 per share. That's a growth of approximately 13%. This compares to our previous guidance of 11% to 12% growth, or $4.40 to $4.50 per share.

With respect to the fourth quarter, we expect local currency sales growth to be approximately 5%. This includes approximately 1% growth from Troemner. We assume adjusted EPS will be in the range of $5.08 to $5.13. This reflects a growth rate of 9% to 10%.

Now let's turn to 2017. We are coming off a very strong third quarter, and we have expectations for a solid Q4 as well. We believe we are executing well, we have a strong product pipeline, our Spinnaker sales and marketing programs, as well as our Field Turbo investments are yielding tangible results. These factors are within our control, and we feel confident about them.

Offsetting these positives are some lingering questions regarding the global economy. In particular we see continued risk in China, some uncertainty in Europe, and we will face tougher comps, for example in our lab business, as well as the Americas. Taking into account these factors, we expect local currency sales growth to be about 5% in 2017.

This will include 50 basis points from the Troemner acquisition. This should result in adjusted EPS in the range of $16.05 to $16.25 per share, and that's a growth rate of 10% to 11%. We expect currency to reduce adjusted EPS growth by about 1% in 2017.

In terms of quarterly guidance for 2017, as usual, we will provide that on our upcoming calls. However, I know you will be updating your models, and I just want point out that we will have a tough comp in Q3 next year, given the very strong results that we are reporting today.

In terms of currency impact on sales growth, we expect currency to reduce sales by about 1.5% in the fourth quarter. This will result in a 2% impact on sales growth for the full year 2016, and in 2017, currency should reduce sales by about 1.5%.

Finally, in terms of cash flow next year, we expect free cash flow to be in the $390 million range. This reflects a 6% growth on a per-share basis, which is below our normal target, and that has to do with higher capital expenditures.

As we explained last year, our CapEx levels in 2016 and 2017 are higher due to facility expansions, related to our product inspection businesses, as well as the facility consolidation we're doing in Switzerland. These expansions will amount to approximately $55 million in 2017. We've built into our assumptions $500 million of share repurchases next year, which is the same amount as we did this year.

Okay. That's it for my side, and I now want to turn it back to Olivier.

Thanks, Bill. Let me start with summary comments on business conditions.

Lab had a very good growth in the quarter. All product lines performed well. Our strong product pipeline benefited from investments and continued strong sales and marketing programs, are all contributing to favorable results. Spending by our biopharma customers continues to be favorable. While government and academia was not strong in the West, it's not a big segment for us.

Industrial was stronger than expected in the quarter, including core industrial, which increased mid-single digits. Core industrial was particularly strong in Asia and the rest of the world, but was up in China as well. In the Americas and Europe, we benefited from some projects in transportation and logistics, but the core industrial markets remain difficult.

Product inspection was up strongly in the quarter, with particularly good growth in Americas and Europe. We continue to penetrate large multi-national food companies as the supplier of choice, as they seek to standardize the product inspection equipment. We have made some good inroads over the last 12 to 24 months, and we expect good results in the fourth quarter as well.

Finally, retail increased 13% in the quarter, much better than we had expected, as some project moved forward from Q4. We had good growth in all regions. We would expect retail to be down in the fourth quarter.

Now let me make some additional comments by geography. Sales growth in the Americas continues to be very solid. Biopharma and food were our strongest segments.

Lab had growth against strong comparisons in the prior year. Product inspection in retail did very well in the quarter with a number of large projects. Core industrial also had growth, and benefited from some project activity in transportation and logistics, but as expected, many industrial segments remain weak.

Europe's growth exceeded expectations. Similar to the US, biopharma and food were good segments. Lab and product inspection benefited from these trends.

Core industrial benefited from some transportation and logistics activity, but similar to the US, many industrial segments were weak. Finally, retail also had very good growth, and as already mentioned was partially due to some projects moving from Q4 to Q3.

Asia and rest of the world grew double digits in the quarter. Lab growth in China was again in double digits, with almost all product lines showing very good growth. We continue to be very pleased with this performance, which reflects good demand, particularly in life sciences as well as the benefit of our actions to redirect resources to faster-growing market segments.

Industrial in China has modest growth, as we continue to be impacted by the overcapacity in the industrial manufacturing sector. We are seeing good growth in certain industrial markets such as chemical, pharma, and OEMs but it is being overshadowed by weakness in markets such as [salmon] and metal. One final comment on the business, service grew 6% in the quarter.

Those are all my comments on current business trends. Let me provide the broader update on our strategy, and how it continues to evolve and positions us well for the next year and beyond. Let me start with our sales and marketing strategies.

At our investor day in July, we discussed one of our new initiatives in this area, and that is our effort to generate leads and better focus our sales efforts by leveraging big data. Our data sources include our contact database, our installed base of instruments, hits on MT.com and increasingly rich data streams from Blue Ocean, as well as some third-party data. We are becoming more sophisticated in how we use this data to target incremental growth.

We are in the early stages of developing the potential of big data, but we already see opportunities to refine our current strategy and identify new sources of growth and sales productivity. As shared at he investor day, we are using big data to help us identify better where customers are investing, account locations that need more focus on cross-selling, and the likely affect this means to succeed.

We also recently launched Spinnaker 5, which is focused on increased sales productivity. The tools from Spinnaker 5 are being used to help units refine their channel strategy, more effectively balance their resources between field and inside sales, and achieve better results in account penetration and cross-selling.

Finally, we have started our next wave of Field Turbo, and expect to add 200 additional field resources in 2017. We believe the first waves of this Field Turbo program have been effective in helping us gain share.

We talk to you a lot about sales and marketing, but our share gains would not be possible without an excellent product pipeline. It continues to be very strong, particularly on the lab and product inspection side. Let me give you one example from our waning pipette business.

As a reminder, we have proprietary pipettes with superior ergonomic design, and which each have an embedded RFID chip for tracking. The team is now launching Smart Stand, an easy to use pipette asset management system. This instrument can store up to four pipettes and read the embedded RFID chip, to immediately determine if the pipette is within required calibration specifications.

For regulated labs in the pharma biotech industry, this is a major support tool that eliminates the manual and time-consuming process of tracking calibration dates to verifying the pipette is proper to use. Our pipettes have long been known for the ability to provide reproducible data.

Smart Stand further helps our customers to ensure that data was generated on a verified pipette. We believe it will help drive our service business, as well as lab conversions, as more researchers seek to benefit from our RFID-enabled pipettes. This is only one new product launch, but representative of how we continue to drive value for our customers.

As you can see, we have much under way in terms of targeting top line growth. We also continue to make very good progress on our margin initiatives.

Our pricing, productivity and supply chain initiatives continue to evolve, and yield tangible results. There is a lot of work behind all of this, particularly in an organization as ours, that has so many complexities. With continued diligence, we can move this initiative to the next level.

That concludes our prepared remarks. In summary, we believe we are executing well and market conditions are good enough for our customers to keep their replacement cycles. With the benefit of our growth initiatives, we believe are continuing to gain share, and continue to improve our margins.

Assuming demand in our markets remain stable, we expect to continue to generate good sales and earnings growth. I want to now ask the operator to open the line for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Tim Evans, Wells Fargo Securities.

Thank you so much. On the strength in industrial, it sounded like the growth there was driven primarily, or the surprise, I should say, was primarily driven by a couple transportation and logistics items. If you strip those out, would the underlying growth have been the low single-digit territory where it's been running? And secondarily, I was wondering if this two projects were pulled forward from Q4? Thanks.

First, for our industrial business in total, the key good performer was actually product inspection. Product inspection grew by low double digits in the quarter. We did do mid single-digit growth in our -- what we would refer to as our core industrial business.

That business would have been, maybe, I'm trying to do the math here in my head, maybe, 1.5 points less without the T&L projects. The T&L projects may be weren't as close on our radar screen, and frankly they were a little bit smaller.

The retail projects did move from Q4 into Q3, and that is the one that was more had in mind with that reference to coming a little earlier than we expected. The T&L project I think largely came in maybe in total a little better than we expected, but wasn't so much different than we expected from a timing point of view.

Got it. Thank you.

Richard Eastman, Robert W. Baird.

Just a couple quick things. Could you just dig into pricing here a little bit. Not just on this quarter but also, Bill, what kind of price, do we trend line price out into 2017 when we talk about guidance?

Yes. We did. We run a couple different scenarios. I think the good news on pricing is that the tools we have, the strategies we have, the products we get to apply pricing to continue to get better. But it is a lower inflation environment, globally.

That represents some different challenges. So I think a baseline level, I could imagine we maybe only do 150 BPs next year, but I also see some upside in terms of Shawn and the team are putting together new things in the area, for example, of services, where I think we have some opportunity and also reaching out to some other countries. I hope that there is a little bit upside to that number, too.

Okay. And I also just had a question. Olivier, when we talk about the 5% growth for 2017, would you handicap the risk to that number, either geographically or by product segment? I'm curious, where might you see the biggest risk? And conversely, maybe the one area or two areas where you see the best possibility of upside?

Okay. In terms of risk, if I look to Asia, particularly China, how will industry do in China? That's rather difficult to predict, as we described before, for industry in China the segments do well, chemical, food, and the others still difficult. But forecasting and anticipating how the Chinese economy does overall is definitely in the industrial and business is particularly exposed to the cycles in China.

Of course, we have, also, comparison topics. We have a very strong performance in biopharma, which we highlighted, including in Europe. We're going to feel that next year. How will this evolve, in that sense, a certain risk in.

On the upside, I would say China industry could actually clearly come in stronger than we expect. As I mentioned before, there is a high volatility on that one, so that's one. If biopharma continues to be that strong, we would benefit across many businesses. That would be really nice. And then there is a certain pent-up demand that we have always seen, when an overall economy strengthens, pent-up demand in CapEx, where core industrial would benefits in particular. That's another upside that I could see.

And just really one last question. Promise. An open-ended question here a little bit. I think, Olivier, you and Bill, if I'm not mistaken, do your annual budget, global tour of your regions in the September/October period. And I'm just curious if there's any next level observations, either politically or from a business perspective, that if I'm right on the timing of your tour, that you brought back with you from in particular China?

Particular China. Actually --

I think the one thing the guys told us about was that at the beginning of next year, the Chinese Politburo will do their changes. The two top guys will stay in place. If we look back at that historically, this has typically been a time where you maybe see people wait and see.

But the guys are a little bit more optimistic this year, because with the two top guys staying in place, and a lot of people, frankly, worried about the Chinese economy, that there will be more emphasis to keep growing. So, I don't think -- the five-year plan is in place, and I think they are optimistic that we won't see a slowdown there.

Actually in that context, the change takes place early in the year, and everybody feels by Chinese New Year, the uncertainty should be gone. This is different to past changes. And past changes where really the whole team, at this time, it's a few people that will retire, age wise, and so there is continued political leadership.

One other highlight that we saw during this business review in China was our strengthening position in lab and in particular, actually pipette and pH. I was very pleased to hear that we are winning market positioning and becoming leaders in pipette and pH in China, which typically takes a couple of years, and is very attractive because of course these are businesses with great profitability, great consumable streams. These are our examples.

We had, certainly, many more from other countries, too. One that I'm going to share was in India. We are so pleased to see how the growth goes there. We talked a lot about it's made in India, and how this is helping.

I mentioned that a little bit because for us we always depend also the industrial manufacturing is important, it drives quality. It drives through export industry and that is for example something I could feel very strongly when I met the Indian team. We see it, the only thing next year the air moving to a VAT tax structure, and that's good in the short term. That will impact our numbers.

Every country had something specific. And it was good to sense it. All in all, we came back from the tour in a very positive way. Extremely pleased by the plants, but also, and I think you refer to that, the macroeconomic and global environment. We feel good about it.

Okay. Great. Thanks for the color.

Ross Muken, Evercore ISI

I'm curious on the biopharma side, whether by any of the distinct customer subsegments, you saw notable changes in demand or whether there was any bias between higher-priced instrumentation and lower-priced instrumentation. Because we've definitely seen some choppiness from maybe not peers, but others who address the customer base. So were just trying to discern if it was a price point question, or really it may be more specific to certain sub segments.

That's actually broad-based. It's important to say, it's certainly not particularly the big pharma. We even saw a few ones in big Pharma that slow down some of their purchasing, due to internal things like new procurement initiatives. It was in that sense, broad-based.

We see good activity with the CMOs. We see good activity with CPOs. We have many businesses that serve this market. So from production to research, we benefited. I didn't see any particular patterns between the more sophisticated or the more value instruments. It was broad-based.

Thanks, Olivier. And Bill, just quickly. On the tax line for next year I would have thought you, maybe you mentioned it and I missed it, have gotten a little bit of the benefits from the stock comp check shield. I'm just curious what the assumption is there?

We assumed a 24% rate now. We are working through the models. As you know, we've been hitting this 24% tax rate for a while, but running a cash tax rate lower than that, in part explained by stock options.

We're going to go through and see with the accountants where we come out, but I would assume that could benefit us a couple of percentage points, when things get finalized. I'm not sure how much you have studied it yourself, Ross, but one of the things I think is awkward about it is that it going to mean people could have quite different tax rates by quarter. One of the things we would be dealing with is, we could maybe estimate what the full-year impact was, but the nature of it would make our tax rate jump around quite a bit in the quarters. And I think it will take an increased level of investor communication to predict that, and in part, that's why I think we will wait until maybe February to elaborate on what it will precisely mean for us. But you're right, it's positive.

Thanks.

Steve Beuchaw, Morgan Stanley.

Hi. Good afternoon. Just a couple of clarifications for me.

Steve, if you're still talking, I think we lost you. Or it's gotten very quiet.

(Operator Instructions)

I believe we've lost Steve. Isaac Ro, Goldman Sachs.

Wanted to spend a minute on Europe. You had a big quarter there, and I know you called out the pull-forward effect in retail business. Hoping you could maybe quantify how much that contributed to the local currency growth, and wondering if maybe there was a secondary effect where your market share gains that you referenced were concentrated in the region, and that also helped. Just trying to reconcile the fact that you grew so well there, versus what we're seeing everywhere else.

Bill will talk about the quarter effect. Let me just say, overall, it was a great quarter for Europe. Lab and product inspection was particularly strong, really.

Also for Q4, in general good, but we will have declines in retail. But for product inspection, that did very well in Q3. We will continue to do also Q4 well. Maybe, Bill, just on the effect between the two quarters?

Our retail business and Europe was, I'm sorry, I lost my spot, was up about 14%, and I think it will be down probably double digits in the fourth quarter. So it's just a timing topic. As you know, our retail business at the gross and operating margin line is a little less than the other businesses. So, not such a material impact in terms of operating margin and profitability flow-through but yes, timing wise, that was the impact.

Got it. And just a clarification question on China. Appreciate your comments on the political backdrop. I wanted to clarify that's the reason you called out the potential for a little bit of risk next year in that region, as opposed to any fundamental changes in key end markets. Just went make sure I understood the sources of risk that you are keeping an eye on.

I would say that on China, we have seen that predicting China is little bit more difficult, and I think, particularly for the industrial business. It's difficult to say when certain industries will pick up again and start to really invest in capacity expansion, and all these things. It could also turn in the other direction.

We are cautious about, particularly the industrial business. On the lab business, I feel much more comfortable that we will have a steady growth.

Understood. Thanks so much.

Derik de Bruin, Bank of America - Merrill Lynch.

Just a few questions. Bill, can you quantify or give us some guidance on what you're looking for in terms of gross margin expansion year over year, 2016 to 2017. What's embedded in your guidance?

40 basis points, 45 basis points, something in that range, up to 50, depending on how currency plays out, and also of course the comments on our pricing initiatives as well, whether we do a little bit better than 150 BPs.

Great. At your analyst day, you mentioned, and you just mentioned on the call here, your initiatives to target and discover where your installed base is, and targeting upgrades and replacements in that. How far into that initiative are you? And when will you really start seeing some incremental benefits of that? And the question is, how much of your installed base do you think is amenable to that activity?

So, we have two big data initiatives that we talked about at the investor day. One was these old product replacement initiatives where we have, today, a very good transparency on all our products, installed around the world. We data mine this to associate specific marketing programs, to bring these products, either under a service contract or upgrade/replace the product.

This is ongoing. In that sense we have already benefited. But it's a long journey. The installed base is so huge, and of course, our customers don't instantly replace it, just because we send the marketing materials, or we send ever a salesperson with a dedicated value proposition.

I see that as one of many initiatives that we have, that can help us drive further growth. We see already the benefit. It will continue to benefit us for many more years.

And the same is true actually, for the second initiatives where we generate sales force targets based on big data and analytics. This is something we started to pilot earlier in the year, and we have been scaling it up in Q2. We start to see the benefits, but we have many more years to go until we see saturation in the upside of that.

Great. And I just wanted a clarification. For 2017, what's embedded in terms of the interest income expense line?

On interest expense, we've got $32.6 million built in.

Great. Thank you. Very helpful.

Tycho Peterson, JPMorgan.

Can you maybe talk on expectations by segment for 2017? What's embedded in guidance for each of the divisions, and can you quantify what you're expecting but growth in China as well?

Sure. Let me start with the product areas. I think something in the mid-single digits for the lab business makes sense. 5%, 6%. I use that as the midpoint of our overall range.

In terms of our industrial business, something in the 5% range as well. Mid-single digits but maybe the mix there would be our product inspection business growing faster than our core industrial business. And then a flat or maybe low single-digit growth in retail would get you to the overall picture.

And if you look at it geographically, we're thinking Europe could be low to mid, depending on best case/worst case. The Americas probably mid-single digits, and then in both Asia and China overall we think mid single digits probably anyway, and could be up in the high single digits.

Okay. And can you comments on linearity in the quarter. I know you had the question before about your global tour, but I'm actually just wondering how things progress throughout the quarter, and any commentary on October trends in particular, if things were off trend relative to what you saw. Thank you.

We finished with good order entry, which would be an early indicator for us in terms of September. I think the combination of October and November, which is the piece we have the most visibility on, remains pretty solid. I think, as you know, Tycho, many of us in the peer group have a certain amount of budget flush.

We think we made a reasonable assumption in terms of it being a typical year, with budget flush. But December is always the hardest one to predict. Things just come that you did not have on your radar at all, and you just hope you got as least as many as last year.

Okay, and lastly on food retail I know you talked about that being down in 4Q but visibility on orders there? Are there some bigger tenders coming through? Obviously you saw some pull forward in 3Q. Just wondering what the outlook for that business is.

If you're okay, Tycho, I think we may have a little bit. It tends to be at the -- after Thanksgiving and people tend to avoid in the holiday season delivering on many big projects. But there is a lot of work done by our customers, in terms of thinking about the next year.

So maybe when we see you, or when we talk again in February, we can have bigger or better way to answer that. At this point there are a number of big jobs that are in play, but the way those work out, what percentage of the big job you get, we won't know for a little while. Much less the timing on it.

Got it. Thank you.

Dan Arias, Citigroup.

Bill, you touched on service. Do you think service growth outstrips product growth again next year? And if so, how, what you envisioned that spread being?

Actually, this is our strategy. We feel like we can grow service. We want to grow service more than the product growth and, yes, this is part of our plan for next year.

If we grow as we guided you, this should actually be possible. We have very good programs in place, and we have seen actually, different regions with very strong growth year to date in service. I would highlight for example, Asia. Yes. I have that expectation for next year.

Okay. And then maybe just on the margin opportunity next year. If you look at indirect spend, which I think is something that you guys have been targeting, how much of what you see there in percentage terms is what you might call effectively managed or where you want it, versus what's still open for improvement? And do you think that could be a meaningful source of savings next year as we look to 2017? Thanks.

Our indirect spend number is, actually the base of it is a number in excess of our material spend or direct material spend. I think it's the amount we have under control is in the $500 million range. I'm sorry, the amount of it is in the $500 million range, and I think we have more than 50% now being under what we would refer to as category management.

So I think that number will climb a little bit, but I think the way we look at it is, we're always trying to come up with new programs that can drive further savings in there. I think we this year will save a number in the high single-digit million range, and I think we should be able to deliver a number in that range again next year.

Okay. Thank you.

Jonathan Groberg, UBS.

Congratulations, for the quarter although I have to say, Bill, it's a sad day to get the press release that we got today that you're leaving, although I've been talking with a few clients. We say only you could blow out quarter and leave yourselves two years for the transition. Appreciate that.

Sure.

Just a couple follow-ups. Around the quarter itself, it looks like maybe about $0.05 of the quarter you didn't pass on to the full year. Is that just conservatism, is that some of the pull-forward? Maybe talk a little bit about that?

A little bit, the movement on the retail is probably, the retail projects is probably the biggest piece. I think Mary maybe told me currency got worse by a $0.01 or $0.02, I think, as well.

Okay. And then Olivier on this Field Turbo, noticed you had 200 people in 2017. Any particular geography or customer segmentation stand out in terms of where those are going?

Yes. Lab gets quite some attention. We will add a couple of people, for example for our automated chemistry business that we presented to you also in July. We are adding a couple of people for our pH lab business, that has high profitability.

And from a geographic standpoint, we have Southeast Asia, where we're adding, again, quite a significant number of people, in the context of building up the Philippines and Indonesia. But it's relatively broad-based. I presented today to the Board in the annual plan, where we're adding a tour bus, and we had a geographic map, and was nice to see how well spread it is, and that's actually the strength of the program that we are working on. May projects in parallel, and you have many managers that are also supervising and managing this.

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Steve Beuchaw, Morgan Stanley.

Thanks for giving me a second crack at it here. Bill I'm going to ask just one question, but it's a three parter, so that's why I'm going to limit myself to just one. The basic topic is, are there any items you want to flag in terms of the progression over the next year or so from quarter to quarter?

Specifically, I'm wondering, and this is I guess a follow-up to Tim's question, is there any impact from timing items in the third quarter that might actually impact 2017, given you mentioned some of those are actually items that were further out.

The second piece would be selling days. Any selling day abnormalities, either actually in the third quarter or looking forward? And the third part of my three parter is, anything next year, aside from the tough comp, that we should consider as you think about the progression of incremental margins?

Okay. Good questions. I have answers to at least some of them. Let me start with those and I will have Mary flipping me some lines as well as Shawn.

Progression for quarter to quarter, I think we mentioned in the conference call script that I think it Q3 is going to be a tough comp a year from now. I think you can play it out that way. Not all of it will, if you look at incremental margins, it won't be as big of an issue there because of the high retail comp. You can also assume that we get about a percent or so of sales growth from Troemner in the first two quarters, and that stops in Q3 and Q4.

In terms of working days, I think it's flat in Q3 of this year, in Q4 it's minus two working days. And for 2017, I think there is a day difference, that we have a day more in Q1 of 2017, and we catch it back up in Q2. And then, it looks like there is at one last day in Q3, but I don't think those should be so material.

In terms of other things to think about, I can't think. Another one might be timing of some of our Blue Ocean go-lives. Those don't jump out to me right now, in terms of being particularly large units, so I think that shouldn't be so much of an issue. Yes, I think all of us are nodding that those would be the key items.

I think the one other item would be in response to a follow-up, to make sure it resonated with people. Ross asked earlier about this new accounting regulation surrounding accounting for the income tax benefits of stock options, in excess of the actual value and I think that we are working on trying to estimate that impact now for the full year, but I do think the way the accounting rules are written, it will lead to quite a bit of volatility by quarter, and that's something that I think we're going to almost have to guide you quarter by quarter at this stage.

And so I would maybe suggest people leave it typical Mettler flat 24% for now, and that's what we've given you in terms of guidance. But it will probably be an improved number when we talk to you in February, but we're still estimating what that will be. Did I get all the parts to your questions, Steve?

Sorry. Any impact of timing items in the third quarter on revenues in the first half? It sounded like some of the timing items in the third quarter impacted the events you thought were a little further out?

I think it's mostly a retail topic and it's mostly, will work itself out Q3 to Q4. At this stage, I don't see anything, but we will let you know. I don't see anything happening in the fourth quarter that would push things out to Q1 in particular.

Thanks so much.

Brandon Couillard, Jefferies.

Bill you may have just answered my question in the context of the number of days in the fourth quarter, but even if we strip out the pull forward of the food retail surge in the third quarter, on the two, three, four year stacked comp basis, you still accelerated on each of those metrics pretty materially in the third quarter, which your guidance seems to suggest a step backward in the fourth. Is that simply the days effect?

I think if you look, the impact of the retail moving between the two quarters is 2%, so if you start by reconciling, we grew 9%, 8%, organically. You get 2 points off to compare the two quarters, and then there is a point or 1.5 point left. Some of that could be working days, some of it is just the forecast of how we see things, some of it might be we're just underestimating budget flush.

I would acknowledge that it's the quarter for us that we find most difficult to forecast, Brendan. But we have done the same stack analysis you did, along with a series of other internal forecasting measures, to come up with this number. And we think it's realistic, but I guess we will see when the numbers come through.

Okay. And two more. Do you actually give the China growth rate in the third quarter? And secondly, you pointed to I think a 1% headwind on EPS next year from currency. Does that include the hedge roll-off effect?

Yes. That includes the hedge roll-off effect, and our growth in China in the quarter was 8%, and it's 8% for the full year to date.

Super. Thanks.

(Operator Instructions)

Steve Willoughby, Cleveland Research.

Two quick things for you. Wondering if you could comment at all about what you're seeing in the UK over the last few months, post-Brexit? And secondly just on Field Turbo, now that you're in the third wave of adding people, if you could provide any color on how quickly these headcount additions are ramping up, and how quickly they basically start paying for themselves?

On the first one, to put it in perspective, the UK is about 3% of our revenue, and yes, our business has slowed down, and it's certainly also associated with the Brexit discussions that we have. Of course, our customer base is faced with uncertainty, and we see it in our business. What we also did, we had significant price increases that were implemented in the UK, to offset the weakening of the pound.

Now, talking about the pound, I want you to be aware that we have a net short position towards the pound because we have two major manufacturing plants in our product inspection. That's at least on the positive side for us. We will see how it further develops. Typically, when these things happen in a country, you have, in the short-term an effect and then things rebound.

The second question, about the Field Turbo. We have these different ways. There are so many different projects as I described before.

Not all of them have the same payback time. I would project back the investments that we do in Southeast Asia that will have a faster paybacks then the investments that I referred to in automated chemistry. But all in all, we say we want to have them to reach a breakeven after a year, and after two years, they should cover their initial investment. And that's also the beauty when we do these in waves, but on a regular basis. The older waves also help fund the new ways.

And we have no other questions in queue at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to our presenters.

Thanks, Jennifer and thanks, everyone for joining the call tonight. Of course if you have any questions as always, don't hesitate to send us an email, or give us a call. Take care. Thanks. Bye-bye.

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's conference call. And you may now disconnect.