Marvell 報告了 2025 財年第二季的強勁財務業績,在資料中心市場需求的推動下,營收超出了預期。該公司對未來的成長持樂觀態度,尤其是在人工智慧客製化晶片方案方面,並預計第三季營收將繼續成長。 Marvell 專注於推動營收成長、營運槓桿以及向投資者返還資本。他們在人工智慧和定制晶片領域處於有利地位,對未來前景抱持著積極的態度。
該公司正在投資下一代技術,並擁有大量的客製化 ASIC 產品積壓和預訂。 Marvell 在電光領域的業界領先地位吸引了美國雲端巨頭的興趣,提供了潛在的分享機會。儘管市場面臨挑戰,Marvell 仍然對自己應對不確定性並繼續發展業務的能力充滿信心。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to Marvell Technology Inc's second-quarter of fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
下午好,歡迎參加 Marvell Technology Inc 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)
Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ashish Saran, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在將會議交給投資者關係資深副總裁 Ashish Saran 先生主持。請繼續。
Ashish Saran - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Ashish Saran - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Marvell's second fiscal quarter 2025 earnings calls. Joining me today are Matt Murphy, Marvell's Chairman and CEO; and Willem Meintjes, our CFO.
謝謝大家,大家下午好。歡迎參加 Marvell 2025 年第二財季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有 Marvell 董事長兼執行長 Matt Murphy;以及我們的財務長 Willem Meintjes。
Let me remind everyone that certain comments made today include forward-looking statements, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Please review the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our earnings press release, which we filed with the SEC today and posted on our website as well as our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings. We do not intend to update our forward-looking statements.
讓我提醒大家,今天發表的某些評論包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。請查看我們今天向 SEC 提交並發佈在我們網站上的收益新聞稿中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素,以及我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 文件。我們不打算更新我們的前瞻性陳述。
During our call today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is also available in our earnings press release.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的調整表也可在我們的收益新聞稿中找到。
Let me now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the quarter. Matt?
現在讓我將電話轉給馬特,請他對本季發表評論。馬特?
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Ashish, and good afternoon, everyone. For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Marvell delivered revenue of $1.27 billion above the midpoint of guidance, driven primarily by strong demand from our data center end market.
謝謝阿什什,大家下午好。 2025 財年第二季度,Marvell 的營收高於指導中位數 12.7 億美元,這主要是受到資料中心終端市場強勁需求的推動。
Higher revenue, combined with disciplined expense control, drove non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.30, also above the midpoint of guidance. Revenue in the second quarter grew by 10% sequentially, and we are projecting significantly higher sequential growth for the third quarter with all our end markets expected to grow. Achieving the midpoint of our third-quarter guidance would also result in a return to year-over-year revenue growth for Marvell.
更高的收入加上嚴格的費用控制,使非 GAAP 每股收益達到 0.30 美元,也高於指導中位數。第二季營收季增 10%,我們預計第三季的環比成長將顯著提高,所有終端市場預計都會成長。達到我們第三季指引的中點也將使 Marvell 恢復年收入成長。
Let me now discuss our results and expectations for each of our end markets. In our data center end market for the second quarter, we drove record revenue of $881 million, growing 92% year over year and 8% sequentially. These above guidance results were driven by strong demand for our electro-optics products, custom silicon beginning its anticipated ramp, as well as growth in our storage and switch revenue.
現在讓我討論我們對每個終端市場的結果和期望。在第二季的資料中心終端市場,我們的營收達到創紀錄的 8.81 億美元,年增 92%,季增 8%。上述指導結果是由對我們的電光產品的強勁需求、客製化矽開始其預期的成長以及我們的儲存和交換器收入的成長所推動的。
Strong bookings continue for our market-leading 800 gig PAM products and 400 ZR data center interconnect or DCI products and we are looking forward to starting shipments of our next-generation 200 gig per lane 1.6 terabit DSPs in the third quarter. As a result, we expect our electro-optics revenue will continue to grow every quarter this fiscal year on a sequential basis.
我們市場領先的 800 GB PAM 產品和 400 ZR 資料中心互連或 DCI 產品的預訂量持續強勁,我們期待在第三季度開始發貨下一代每通道 200 GB 1.6 太比特 DSP。因此,我們預計本財年每季我們的電光收入將持續較上季成長。
We are also looking forward to addressing a number of new opportunities within the datacenter. We have begun initial shipments of our 100 gig per lane 800 gig DSPs for active electrical cables or AECs. And we are anticipating the production ramp to accelerate in the second half. In addition, we recently started sampling the industry's first 200 gig per lane 1.6 terabit AEC DSPs to address upcoming higher-speed, short-reach copper interconnect applications.
我們也期待著解決資料中心內的許多新機會。我們已開始首批出貨用於有源電纜或 AEC 的每通道 100 gig 和 800 gig DSP。我們預計下半年產量將加速成長。此外,我們最近開始對業界首款每通道 200 gig 1.6 TB AEC DSP 進行採樣,以應對即將到來的更高速、短距離銅互連應用。
(inaudible) servers are turning to PCIe Gen 6 technology, which needs higher order PAM4 modulation. Given our leadership position in PAM technology, customers are turning to Marvell to enable this transition, and we are now sampling our new PAM4-based PCIe Gen 6 retimers.
(聽不清楚)伺服器正在轉向 PCIe Gen 6 技術,該技術需要更高階的 PAM4 調變。鑑於我們在 PAM 技術方面的領先地位,客戶正在轉向 Marvell 來實現這一轉變,我們現在正在提供基於 PAM4 的新型 PCIe Gen 6 重定時器的樣品。
As you can see, we are continuing to broaden our end-to-end product portfolio to address all the critical interconnect needs of our data center customers, positioning us to take full advantage of an interconnect TAM expected to grow at a 27% CAGR to $14 billion by calendar 2028. We are confident in our ability to continue to lead the industry in power and performance with our current optical DSP and DCI franchises, while we expand into new opportunities including AEC DSPs, PCIe retimers, silicon photonics, and longer-distance, 1,000-kilometer-reach DCI modules. As a result, we expect to maintain a leadership position in this large and fast-growing interconnect market.
正如您所看到的,我們正在繼續擴大我們的端到端產品組合,以滿足資料中心客戶的所有關鍵互連需求,使我們能夠充分利用互連 TAM 預計將以 27% 的複合年增長率成長到2028 年將達到140 億美元。矽光子學和更長期的技術。因此,我們預計將在這個龐大且快速成長的互連市場中保持領先地位。
We are making significant progress in bringing Compute Express Link or CXL technology to the market, having recently introduced two new families of CXL devices to address memory bandwidth and memory capacity challenges in next-generation servers. In our cloud security business, we are pleased that Microsoft will begin integrating Marvell's FIPS 140 level 3 compliant LiquidSecurity hardware modules in their Azure Key Vault offerings. These product offer shares customers the most secure encryption in key management services in the cloud platform.
我們在將 Compute Express Link 或 CXL 技術推向市場方面取得了重大進展,最近推出了兩個新的 CXL 設備系列,以解決下一代伺服器中的記憶體頻寬和記憶體容量挑戰。在我們的雲端安全業務中,我們很高興 Microsoft 將開始將 Marvell 的符合 FIPS 140 3 級標準的 LiquidSecurity 硬體模組整合到其 Azure Key Vault 產品中。這些產品為共享客戶提供雲端平台中最安全的金鑰管理服務加密。
Let me now turn to our custom silicon business. As investment in AI and accelerated computing continues to surge, tier 1 cloud providers are increasingly focused on using custom silicon to improve their datacenter TCL and drive differentiation. AI is accelerating the cadence of new chip releases resulting in shorter design windows and faster time to production company by significant increases in complexity with each new generation. This trend is driving cloud customers to partner with companies like Marvell, who have extensive experience in delivering multiple generations of high-volume, high-complexity, leading-edge chips, developed using robust design methodologies.
現在讓我談談我們的客製化晶片業務。隨著人工智慧和加速運算的投資持續激增,一級雲端供應商越來越注重使用客製化晶片來改善其資料中心 TCL 並推動差異化。人工智慧正在加快新晶片發布的節奏,透過每一代新晶片的複雜性顯著增加,縮短設計視窗並加快生產時間。這一趨勢正在推動雲端客戶與 Marvell 等公司合作,這些公司在提供採用穩健設計方法開發的多代大批量、高複雜性、領先晶片方面擁有豐富的經驗。
Additionally, cloud customers are seeking access to our differentiated and field-proven technology platform, which include ultra-high-speed [30s], ARM compute, optimized HBM interfaces, security, storage, die-to-die interconnects, silicon photonics, and advanced packaging. Customers are also adopting concurrent product development with staggered platform launches to produce silicon on an annual cadence. The approach reinforces the value of a trusted silicon partner like Marvell who has decades of processor expertise and can take on greater design responsibilities.
此外,雲端客戶正在尋求存取我們經過現場驗證的差異化技術平台,其中包括超高速 [30 秒]、ARM 運算、優化的 HBM 介面、安全性、儲存、晶片間互連、矽光子學和先進的封裝。客戶也採用平行產品開發和交錯平台發布的方式,以每年的節奏生產晶片。這種方法增強了像 Marvell 這樣值得信賴的晶片合作夥伴的價值,他們擁有數十年的處理器專業知識,可以承擔更大的設計責任。
As a result, the nature of our customer engagements is shifting from point design wins to multigenerational relationships. Our AI custom silicon programs are progressing very well with our first two chips now ramping into volume production. Development for new customer programs we have already won, including projects within new tier 1 AI customer we announced earlier this year are also tracking well the key milestones.
因此,我們客戶參與的性質正在從點設計勝利轉變為多代關係。我們的人工智慧客製化晶片專案進展順利,我們的前兩款晶片現已投入大量生產。我們已經贏得的新客戶專案的開發,包括我們今年稍早宣布的新一級人工智慧客戶的項目,也很好地追蹤了關鍵里程碑。
Looking ahead to the third quarter of fiscal 2025 for our data center end market, we are forecasting revenue growth to accelerate into the high-teens sequentially on a percentage basis. We expect the largest contributor to this growth will be our AI custom silicon programs as they begin to ramp meaningfully in the third quarter, further augmented by ongoing growth from our optics portfolio.
展望 2025 財年第三季我們的資料中心終端市場,我們預期營收成長將以百分比連續加速至高十位數。我們預計,這一成長的最大貢獻者將是我們的人工智慧客製化晶片項目,因為它們在第三季開始有意義地成長,並透過我們的光學產品組合的持續成長進一步增強。
Now let me turn to Marvell's enterprise networking and carrier end markets. In the second quarter, enterprise networking revenue was $151 million, while carrier revenue was $76 million. As expected, these end markets reached a bottom in the first half of this fiscal year and revenue from both end markets collectively was flat sequentially in the second quarter.
現在讓我談談 Marvell 的企業網路和營運商終端市場。第二季度,企業網路收入為1.51億美元,而營運商收入為7,600萬美元。如預期,這些終端市場在本財年上半年觸底,第二季兩個終端市場的營收總體持平。
Looking ahead, after multiple quarters of inventory digestion, we are starting to see signs of growth for our revenue in both end markets. In the carrier end market, we have begun receiving orders for our next-generation 5 nanometer-based OCTEON 10 DPUs from multiple customers. In enterprise networking, our customers have started to see growth in their orders. We have seen increased bookings for our enterprise products.
展望未來,經過多個季度的庫存消化,我們開始看到兩端市場收入成長的跡象。在營運商終端市場,我們已經開始從多個客戶那裡收到下一代基於 5 奈米的 OCTEON 10 DPU 的訂單。在企業網路領域,我們的客戶已開始看到訂單成長。我們看到我們的企業產品的預訂量增加。
As a result, for the third quarter, we project our aggregate revenue from enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure to grow sequentially in the mid-single digits on a percentage basis. While this forecast still anticipates Marvell products shipping below end-market consumption, our order momentum has picked up, and a combined basis, we expect sequential revenue growth from carrier and enterprise networking to further improve in the fourth quarter.
因此,在第三季度,我們預計來自企業網路和營運商基礎設施的總收入將按百分比連續成長。雖然這項預測仍預期 Marvell 產品出貨量低於終端市場消費量,但我們的訂單動能已回升,綜合來看,我們預期營運商和企業網路的連續營收成長將在第四季進一步改善。
Turning to the consumer end market, revenue in the second quarter was $89 million, growing 112% sequentially following the gaming inventory correction we expected in the prior quarter. Looking ahead to the third quarter, we are expecting revenue from the consumer end market to grow slightly on a sequential basis. Over the next couple of years, we anticipate our revenue from the consumer end market to normalize at approximately $300 million annually, with the majority coming from our custom SSD controller for a leading game console platform. As a result, seasonality of gaming demand will be the primary factor driving our quarterly revenue profile for the consumer end market.
轉向消費者終端市場,第二季營收為 8,900 萬美元,繼我們上一季預期的遊戲庫存調整後較上季成長 112%。展望第三季度,我們預期消費端市場收入將較上季小幅成長。在接下來的幾年裡,我們預計來自消費終端市場的收入將正常化為每年約 3 億美元,其中大部分來自我們為領先的遊戲機平台量身定制的 SSD 控制器。因此,遊戲需求的季節性將成為推動我們消費者終端市場季度收入狀況的主要因素。
Turning to our automotive and industrial end market, revenue in the second quarter was $76 million, declining 31% year over year and 2% sequentially. These results reflect the broad inventory correction taking place across the automotive end market.
轉向我們的汽車和工業終端市場,第二季營收為 7,600 萬美元,年減 31%,季減 2%。這些結果反映了整個汽車終端市場正在發生的廣泛庫存調整。
Looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter, we expect growth to resume and are projecting revenue from the auto and industrial end market to grow sequentially in the mid-single digits on a percentage basis. In summary, the Marvell team executed well in the second fiscal quarter, driving 10% sequential top line growth, delivering both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share above the midpoint of guidance.
展望第三財季,我們預計成長將恢復,並預期汽車和工業終端市場的收入將以百分比連續成長中個位數。總而言之,Marvell 團隊在第二財季表現良好,推動營收季增 10%,營收和非 GAAP 每股收益均高於指導中點。
AI led the way with data center revenue almost doubling year over year. Our consumer revenue recovered more than doubling sequentially, and we believe that our enterprise networking carrier and auto and industrial end markets found their bottom in the second quarter.
人工智慧引領潮流,資料中心收入幾乎較去年同期翻倍。我們的消費者收入環比恢復了一倍多,我們相信我們的企業網路營運商以及汽車和工業終端市場在第二季度觸底。
As you may recall, at the beginning of fiscal 2024, we outline the large opportunity developing in AI and accelerated infrastructure, even as we saw slowdown in our storage, enterprise networking, and carrier end markets. We outlined our plan to aggressively reprioritize our investments toward the highest ROI opportunities including strategic roadmap adjustments and combining some of our businesses to reflect changes in the market. This strategy has led to an expansion in our data center TAM and increased pace of new product releases targeted at this market. As we outlined at our AI day, we plan to continue pivoting our resources towards what we believe to be a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
您可能還記得,在 2024 財年伊始,我們概述了人工智慧和加速基礎設施領域發展的巨大機遇,儘管我們看到儲存、企業網路和營運商終端市場放緩。我們概述了我們的計劃,即積極重新調整我們的投資優先順序,以實現最高投資回報率的機會,包括策略路線圖調整和合併我們的一些業務以反映市場的變化。這項策略導致了我們資料中心 TAM 的擴展,並加快了針對該市場的新產品發布步伐。正如我們在人工智慧日所概述的那樣,我們計劃繼續將我們的資源轉向我們認為千載難逢的機會。
Within data center, we expect custom silicon to be the largest revenue growth driver, given the size of the opportunity in our expanding design win portfolio. We believe continued success in custom silicon will accelerate our timeline to achieve our target operating margin model. Although custom has a lower gross margin than our merchant products, it benefits from inherently lower operating expense levels given NRE offsets from customers and the sharing of IP with our merchant business.
在資料中心內,考慮到我們不斷擴大的設計獲勝產品組合中的機會規模,我們預計客製化晶片將成為最大的收入成長動力。我們相信,客製化晶片的持續成功將加快我們實現目標營運利潤模型的時間表。儘管客製化產品的毛利率低於我們的商業產品,但考慮到客戶的 NRE 抵銷以及與我們的商業業務共享智慧財產權,它受益於固有的較低營運費用水準。
As a result, custom silicon becomes a larger part of our overall revenue, we see a path for operating expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing below our current target operating model. For the third quarter, we are forecasting consolidated revenue to grow 14% sequentially at the midpoint of guidance. We expect this growth to be primarily driven by data center AI and further augmented by the start of a recovery in our enterprise networking and carrier end markets.
因此,客製化晶片成為我們整體收入的較大部分,我們看到營運費用佔收入的百分比會下降到低於我們目前的目標營運模式。對於第三季度,我們預計綜合收入將按指導中位數環比增長 14%。我們預計這一成長將主要由資料中心人工智慧推動,並因企業網路和營運商終端市場開始復甦而進一步增強。
Given the strong start in the first half of the fiscal year from AI and our expectations for accelerated growth in the second half, we remain confident in our ability to significantly exceed the full-year AI revenue target discussed earlier this year at our AI event.
鑑於人工智慧在本財年上半年的強勁開局以及我們對下半年加速成長的預期,我們仍然有信心能夠大幅超過今年早些時候在人工智慧活動中討論的全年人工智慧收入目標。
The Marvell team is executing on all fronts. We expect our AI custom programs to continue ramping up, our bookings continue to strengthen, and we believe that we have secured capacity and set up our supply chain to drive strong revenue growth in the fourth quarter and the next fiscal year.
Marvell 團隊在各方面都在執行。我們預計我們的人工智慧客製化計畫將繼續增加,我們的預訂量將繼續增加,我們相信我們已經獲得了產能並建立了供應鏈,以推動第四季和下一財年的強勁收入成長。
We are also excited to see our hard work showing up in our financials, strong cash flow generation, which is funding increased capital returns to our stockholders.
我們也很高興看到我們的辛勤工作體現在我們的財務狀況、強勁的現金流生成上,這為我們股東的資本回報增加提供了資金。
With that I'll turn the call over to Willem for more details on our recent results and outlook.
接下來,我會將電話轉給威廉,以了解有關我們最近的業績和前景的更多詳細資訊。
Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer
Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝馬特,大家下午好。
Let me start with a summary of Marvell's financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025. Revenue in the second quarter was $1.273 billion, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance, declining 5% year over year and growing 10% sequentially. Data center was our largest end market, driving 69% of total revenue. The next largest was enterprise networking with 12%, followed by consumer at 7%, carrier infrastructure at 6%, and auto industrial at 6%. GAAP gross margin was 46.2%. Non-GAAP gross margin was 61.9%.
首先讓我總結 Marvell 2025 財年第二季的財務表現。資料中心是我們最大的終端市場,佔總收入的 69%。其次是企業網絡,佔 12%,其次是消費者,佔 7%,營運商基礎設施,佔 6%,汽車工業,佔 6%。 GAAP 毛利率為 46.2%。非 GAAP 毛利率為 61.9%。
Moving on to operating expenses, GAAP operating expenses were $688 million, including stock-based compensation, amortization of acquired intangible assets, restructuring costs, and acquisition-related costs. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $456 million, in line with our guidance. GAAP operating margin was negative 7.9%, while non-GAAP operating margin was 26.1%.
說到營運費用,公認會計準則營運費用為 6.88 億美元,包括股票薪酬、收購無形資產攤提、重組成本和收購相關成本。非 GAAP 營運費用為 4.56 億美元,與我們的指引一致。 GAAP 營運利潤率為負 7.9%,而非 GAAP 營運利潤率為 26.1%。
For the second quarter, GAAP loss per diluted share was $0.22. Non-GAAP income per diluted share was $0.30, $0.01 above the midpoint of guidance. Non-GAAP EPS grew by 25% sequentially.
第二季度,GAAP 稀釋後每股虧損為 0.22 美元。非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 0.30 美元,比指導中位數高出 0.01 美元。非 GAAP 每股盈餘季增 25%。
Now turning to our cash flow and balance sheet, cash flow from operations in the second quarter was $306 million. Our inventory at the end of the second quarter was $818 million, decreasing by $8 million from the prior quarter. On a year-over-year basis, we have reduced our inventory by $198 million or almost 20%. We returned $52 million to stockholders through cash dividends.
現在轉向我們的現金流量和資產負債表,第二季的營運現金流為 3.06 億美元。第二季末我們的庫存為 8.18 億美元,比上季減少 800 萬美元。與去年同期相比,我們的庫存減少了 1.98 億美元,即近 20%。我們透過現金股利向股東返還 5,200 萬美元。
In addition, we repurchased $175 million of our stock during the second quarter, an increase of $25 million from the prior quarter. We expect to further increase repurchases in the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Our total debt was $4.13 billion. Our gross debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.29 times and net debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.84 times. As of the end of the second fiscal quarter, our cash and cash equivalents were $809 million, decreasing by $39 million from the prior quarter.
此外,我們在第二季回購了價值 1.75 億美元的股票,比上一季增加了 2,500 萬美元。我們預計在 2025 財年第三季進一步增加回購。我們的總負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.29 倍,淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.84 倍。截至第二財季末,我們的現金及現金等價物為8.09億美元,較上季減少3,900萬美元。
Turning to our guidance for Marvell's third quarter of fiscal 2025, we are forecasting revenue to be in the range of $1.45 billion, plus or minus 5%. We expect our GAAP gross margin to be approximately 47.2%. We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 61%.
談到 Marvell 2025 財年第三季的指引,我們預計營收將在 14.5 億美元範圍內,上下浮動 5%。我們預計 GAAP 毛利率約為 47.2%。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 61%。
For the third quarter, we project our GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $693 million. We anticipate our non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $465 million. For the third quarter, we expect other income and expense, including interest on our debt to be approximately $46 million. We expect a non-GAAP tax rate of 7% for the third quarter. Please note that we forecast our non-GAAP tax rate in fiscal 2026 to step up to 9% in anticipation of a meaningful year-over-year increase in our operating income.
對於第三季度,我們預計 GAAP 營運費用約為 6.93 億美元。我們預計非 GAAP 營運費用約為 4.65 億美元。對於第三季度,我們預計其他收入和支出(包括債務利息)約為 4,600 萬美元。我們預計第三季的非 GAAP 稅率為 7%。請注意,我們預計 2026 財年的非 GAAP 稅率將升至 9%,因為我們預計我們的營業收入將比去年同期大幅成長。
We expect our basic weighted average shares outstanding to be 867 million and our diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be 875 million. This outlook marks an anticipated sequential reduction in our share count, reflecting the positive impact from our ongoing stock repurchases. We anticipate GAAP income per diluted share in the range of a loss of $0.09 to earnings of $0.05. We expect non-GAAP income per diluted share in the range of $0.35 to $0.45.
我們預期基本加權平均流通股數為 8.67 億股,稀釋加權平均流通股數為 8.75 億股。這一前景標誌著我們的股票數量預計將連續減少,反映了我們正在進行的股票回購的正面影響。我們預計 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益將在虧損 0.09 美元到盈利 0.05 美元之間。我們預計非 GAAP 每股攤薄收益在 0.35 美元至 0.45 美元之間。
At the midpoint of guidance, we expect revenue in the third quarter to grow 14% sequentially. This is driven in large part from our ramp in our custom AI products. Although this is driving a sequential decline in our non-GAAP gross margin outlook, we project our non-GAAP earnings per share to grow by 33% sequentially at the midpoint, more than twice the revenue growth rate. As our custom programs expand, we expect to continue to drive substantial operating leverage to the bottom line.
在指導中點,我們預計第三季營收將環比成長 14%。這在很大程度上是由我們客製化人工智慧產品的提升所推動的。儘管這導致我們的非 GAAP 毛利率前景連續下降,但我們預計我們的非 GAAP 每股盈餘中點將連續成長 33%,是營收成長率的兩倍以上。隨著我們的客製化計劃的擴展,我們預計將繼續推動大幅營運槓桿的利潤。
We are pleased to forecast sequential growth returning to all our end markets with our AI data center revenue continuing to grow rapidly. As we drive revenue growth and operating leverage, we also remain focused on strong cash flow generation and returning increasing amounts of capital to investors through our active stock repurchase program.
我們很高興地預測,隨著我們的人工智慧資料中心收入持續快速成長,所有終端市場都會較上季成長。在我們推動營收成長和營運槓桿的同時,我們也繼續專注於強勁的現金流生成,並透過我們積極的股票回購計劃向投資者返還越來越多的資本。
Operator, please open the line and announce Q&A instructions. Thank you.
接線員,請開通線路並公佈問答指示。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Tore Svanberg, Stifel.
(操作員說明)Tore Svanberg,Stifel。
Tore Svanberg - Analyst
Tore Svanberg - Analyst
-- for strong results. Matt, could you just elaborate a little bit more on your comments there at the end about the operating leverage to gross margin. We all know that the custom ASIC business gross margin is lower. But because of the NREs, it's also very operating margin accretive. So maybe you could just elaborate a little bit, and perhaps give us some milestones, especially in relation to certain revenue run rates.
——取得強勁成果。馬特,您能否在最後詳細闡述您關於營運槓桿對毛利率的評論。我們都知道客製化ASIC業務毛利率較低。但由於 NRE,它的營業利潤率也得到了很大的提高。因此,也許您可以詳細說明一下,也許可以給我們一些里程碑,特別是與某些收入運行率相關的里程碑。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Tore. I'll have Willem lead off on this one and then I can come in at the end.
是的。謝謝,托雷。我會讓威廉帶頭做這件事,然後我可以在最後介入。
Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer
Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Tore, I think when you look ahead beyond the Q3 guide, really see gross margin for the next couple of quarters remaining in a similar zip code. When you look at a couple of dynamics there, first of all, we expect the custom programs to continue ramping very nicely, and that's obviously got lower gross margins. But then we see the recovery and the growth in our core merchant products really mostly offsetting that. And then in addition, we see some really good leverage and additional absorption in our manufacturing overhead as the top line is growing, so we think we're where we guided in Q3 is sort of the right zip code for the next couple of few quarters here.
是的,Tore,我認為當你展望第三季指南之外時,確實會看到接下來幾季的毛利率仍保持在類似的郵遞區號水準。當你看到那裡的一些動態時,首先,我們預計定製程式將繼續很好地成長,這顯然會降低毛利率。但隨後我們看到我們核心商業產品的復甦和成長實際上基本上抵消了這一點。此外,隨著收入的成長,我們看到一些非常好的槓桿作用和對製造費用的額外吸收,所以我們認為我們在第三季度指導的位置是未來幾季的正確郵遞區號這裡。
Operator
Operator
Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.
Toshiya Hari,高盛。
Toshiya Hari - Analyst
Toshiya Hari - Analyst
Hi, guys. Thank you so much for taking the question.
嗨,大家好。非常感謝您提出這個問題。
Matt, you talked about your confidence in exceeding or significantly exceeding the full-year AI revenue target, you guys shared a couple of months ago -- several months ago. The incremental strength you're seeing in that business, is it between -- you're seeing both in custom compute as well as your optics business? Or is it more skewed toward the custom compute business? And if you can speak to your visibility into next year as well, I think, your target was $2.5 billion going into next year. Should we see continued upside to that number as well? Thanks so much.
馬特,你談到了你對超過或大幅超過全年人工智慧收入目標的信心,你們在幾個月前分享了這一點——幾個月前。您在該業務中看到的增量實力是在客製化計算和光學業務中看到的嗎?或者它更傾向於定制計算業務?如果您也能談談您對明年的預見性,我認為您的目標是明年的 25 億美元。我們是否應該看到這個數字繼續上升?非常感謝。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, great. Thank you. Yeah, first of all, the demand has been extremely strong in the AI business, as we mentioned, both in custom and in our optics business, and that's the 800 gig products as well as traditional cloud as well as DCI. So that's all going extremely, well, and for next year, that should absolutely ripple through. We see continued strength next year, above what we had communicated relative to the target for next year, both in custom and optics and the broader portfolio. So very pleased with the progress.
是的,太棒了。謝謝。是的,首先,正如我們所提到的,人工智慧業務的需求非常強勁,無論是客製化業務還是光學業務,即 800 兆產品以及傳統雲端和 DCI。所以這一切都進展得非常好,明年,這絕對會產生連鎖反應。我們預計明年在客製化和光學以及更廣泛的產品組合方面將繼續保持強勢,高於我們所傳達的明年目標。對進展非常滿意。
Demand has been strong. Bookings momentum has been extremely strong. And we have a great setup here in the second half, that's going to lead us to what we think is going to be a very strong fiscal '26 for Marvell in AI.
需求一直強勁。預訂勢頭極為強勁。我們在下半年有一個很好的設置,這將帶領我們實現我們認為 Marvell 在人工智慧領域非常強勁的 26 財年業績。
Operator
Operator
Timothy Arcuri, UBS.
提摩西‧阿庫裡,瑞銀集團。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Thanks a lot. Matt, I'm wondering since you're giving us these AI targets, I'm wondering if you can give us a little more granularity in the actual numbers that you report. What was the AI revenue in July. I'm thinking it was close to probably $300 million and custom was probably $50 million, something like that. Can you just give us some sense? Is that about right? And then can you give us some sense of where you think AI will be in October and maybe should we expect custom -- it sounds like custom is going to pick up maybe $100 million, $125 million Q on Q. Is those -- are those numbers in the right ballpark?
多謝。馬特,我想知道既然你給了我們這些人工智慧目標,我想知道你是否可以在你報告的實際數字中為我們提供更詳細的資訊。 7 月的 AI 收入是多少?我想大概是接近 3 億美元,訂製的大概是 5,000 萬美元,類似的東西。你能給我們一些道理嗎?是這樣嗎?然後你能否告訴我們你認為人工智慧在 10 月份會處於什麼位置,也許我們應該期待定制——聽起來定制可能會增加 1 億美元,1.25 億美元 Q 上的 Q 是那些——是那些數字在正確的範圍內嗎?
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, maybe just to keep it at a higher level for the broader investors on the call here, Tim, we had set targets of $1.5 billion for this year and $2.5 billion for next year. As I said earlier, both custom and electro-optics are contributing. It was 00 what we said was at the AI day, just what three, four months ago, about two-thirds of the $1.5 billion was in electro-optics, the other one-third was in custom, and so both of those are doing better.
是的,也許只是為了讓參加電話會議的更廣泛投資者保持在更高的水平,蒂姆,我們設定了今年 15 億美元和明年 25 億美元的目標。正如我之前所說,客製化和電光都做出了貢獻。我們所說的人工智慧日是00,三、四個月前,15億美元中大約三分之二是電光領域,另外三分之一是客製化領域,所以兩者都在做更好的。
Obviously, the custom is back-end loaded, but we're going through a very strong ramp right now. So we're not calling those numbers out typically by quarter. But all I can tell you is both of them have upsized both in terms of aggregate revenue, we're going to achieve next this year and next year as well as the slope of the ramp in custom continues to be very strong. And I'll leave it at that for now.
顯然,定制是後端加載的,但我們現在正在經歷一個非常強勁的增長。因此,我們通常不會按季度公佈這些數字。但我能告訴你的是,他們的總收入都有所增加,我們將在今年和明年實現這一目標,而且客製化業務的成長斜率仍然非常強勁。我暫時就這樣吧。
Operator
Operator
Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.
羅斯·西莫爾,德意志銀行。
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Ross Seymore - Analyst
Hi, guys. Congrats on the strong results and guide. Willem, one potentially for you. And I appreciate the commentary on the gross margin stability at the current level through the end of this year, but could you give us an idea of what the puts and takes would be for next year? I mean, we know the custom stuff carries lower margins and it sounds like the merchant business is coming back. But I think a big concern people have is just how should we think about the revenue growth relative to the gross margin next year as accretive as it may be in most of those scenarios on the operating line, either way.
嗨,大家好。恭喜您取得了出色的成果和指導。威廉,一位可能適合你的人。我很欣賞對截至今年年底當前水準的毛利率穩定性的評論,但是您能否告訴我們明年的看跌期權和跌跌期權是多少?我的意思是,我們知道客製化產品的利潤率較低,而且聽起來商業業務正在復甦。但我認為人們最關心的是,我們應該如何看待明年相對於毛利率的收入成長,無論哪種方式,在大多數營運情況下,收入成長都可能會增加。
Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer
Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer
I think the way to think about that is for that trend to really continue into next year and so not guiding the full year next year, but I think in that similar zip code, where we continue to see good growth from both optics and then the recovery in the merchant products really offsetting the continued growth in custom. And then in addition, as you see the topline growing nicely, we do continue to get that benefit from better absorption. And then overall, when you look at our OpEx management, we're going to continue to be very disciplined looking at next year. And so we do expect to drive a ton of leverage and operating margin down to the bottom line next year.
我認為思考這個問題的方法是讓這種趨勢真正持續到明年,因此不會指導明年全年,但我認為在類似的郵政編碼中,我們繼續看到光學器件和光學器件的良好增長商業產品的復甦確實抵消了海關的持續成長。此外,正如你所看到的收入成長良好,我們確實繼續從更好的吸收中獲得這種好處。總的來說,當你看看我們的營運支出管理時,你會發現明年我們將繼續非常嚴格。因此,我們確實預計明年將大量槓桿率和營業利潤率降至底線。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Ross, if I could just add. As Willem said, I think the GM side needs to play out. We need to see where this non-AI data center demand recovers to. We're very pleased with the third quarter guide of mid-single, and then in enterprise and carrier, that growth improving from Q3 to Q4, so growing even a little bit faster.
是的。嘿,羅斯,我可以補充一下嗎?正如威廉所說,我認為通用汽車方面需要發揮作用。我們需要看看非人工智慧資料中心的需求恢復到什麼程度。我們對第三季的中單業務指南感到非常滿意,然後是企業和營運商,從第三季到第四季度,成長有所改善,因此成長甚至更快一點。
Bookings have picked back up. We're laying in backlog. So that's all a positive sign. And then, of course, you've got to get into next year to see where those traditional core businesses really recover to. That's going to be one factor. As we said earlier as well, we anticipate a lot higher revenue next year, so that's going to help on sort of manufacturing overhead absorption and then to the extent how much custom is really going to be, that's going to be a factor as well.
預訂量已回升。我們正在積壓。所以這都是一個正面的訊號。當然,你必須進入明年才能看到這些傳統核心業務真正恢復到什麼程度。這將是因素之一。正如我們之前所說,我們預計明年的收入會更高,因此這將有助於吸收製造費用,然後就客製化量的實際情況而言,這也將成為一個因素。
So we're looking at all that. That doesn't need to play out a bit. But as Willem said, we're very confident and our OpEx management and our plan on spending there relative to our outlook for next year and so we're very excited and feel very confident in the path to our operating margin targets that we've set, kind of independent of where that GM lies. So that's where we're headed right now, Ross. There will be more to come as these markets recover. Thanks.
所以我們正在研究這一切。這不需要發揮一點。但正如威廉所說,我們非常有信心,我們的營運支出管理以及我們在這方面的支出計劃相對於我們明年的前景而言,因此我們非常興奮,對我們實現營運利潤率目標的道路充滿信心設置,有點獨立於 GM 的位置。這就是我們現在的前進方向,羅斯。隨著這些市場的復甦,還會有更多的事情發生。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Vivek Arya, Bank of America.
維韋克·阿里亞 (Vivek Arya),美國銀行。
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Vivek Arya - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. Matt, I was hoping to get your views on the competitive landscape in the two parts of your AI business, both on the DSP side and custom silicon. On the DSP side, do you see any captive and merchant competitors challenge Marvell's dominance as the industry transitions to 200 gig per lane or these 1.60 transceivers? And then similarly, in custom compute, do you see any competitive changes from your Taiwan competitors? I know a little bit out there in '26 when the industry moves to the 3 nanometer node, but I was just hoping to get your views on any changes in the competitive landscape in the next one to two years and these two important parts of your business. Thank you.
感謝您提出我的問題。 Matt,我希望了解您對 AI 業務兩個部分(DSP 端和客製化晶片)競爭格局的看法。在 DSP 方面,隨著業界向每個通道 200 GB 或這些 1.60 收發器過渡,您是否看到任何專屬競爭對手和商業競爭對手挑戰 Marvell 的主導地位?同樣,在客製化運算方面,您是否看到台灣競爭對手的競爭變化?我對 26 年行業轉向 3 奈米節點的情況有所了解,但我只是希望了解您對未來一到兩年競爭格局的任何變化以及您的這兩個重要部分的看法。謝謝。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, no problem for that. Let me maybe break it into the two pieces you mentioned.
是的,沒問題。讓我把它分成你提到的兩個部分。
So on the DSP and optics side, you know, look, it's been a competitive market. We got into this as you all remember through the acquisition of Inphi and there's been these competitive dynamics from the beginning. Now this market has gotten big, right? So there's -- that would sort of only intensify, but we've consistently maintained a very high market share in this area through the integration of inside of Marvell. And now as we're positioned going forward, primarily because, one, we've executed extremely well from an engineering standpoint. And also, we have the full platform, which includes DSPs, the broadband analog components like drivers and TIAs. We have the complete architecture and solution and also the partnerships with the module vendors as well as the hyperscalers directly.
所以在 DSP 和光學方面,你看,這是一個競爭激烈的市場。正如大家所記得的那樣,我們透過收購 Inphi 進入了這個領域,從一開始就存在這些競爭動態。現在這個市場已經很大了,對吧?因此,這種情況只會加劇,但透過 Marvell 內部的整合,我們一直在該領域保持非常高的市場份額。現在,我們已經做好了前進的準備,主要是因為,第一,從工程的角度來看,我們的執行得非常好。此外,我們還擁有完整的平台,其中包括 DSP、驅動器和 TIA 等寬頻模擬組件。我們擁有完整的架構和解決方案,並且與模組供應商以及超大規模企業直接建立了合作夥伴關係。
And finally, I would say we continue to have a best-in-class roadmap as well in terms of the cadence, the power, and the performance that we're delivering. So we feel very good on these transitions. As an example, we went through the 100-gig transition very successfully. The 200 gig ones in front of us. We're going to start shipping those products this quarter, our 200 gig per lane 1.6 terabit DSPs. And we feel very well positioned. It's going to be competitive of that. But the team is actually really excited about what we can go off and do with the platform we have.
最後,我想說,在我們提供的節奏、力量和性能方面,我們仍然擁有一流的路線圖。所以我們對這些轉變感覺非常好。舉個例子,我們非常成功地完成了 100 場的過渡。我們面前的 200 場演出。我們將於本季開始交付這些產品,即每通道 200 GB 1.6 太比特 DSP。我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。它將具有競爭力。但團隊實際上對我們可以利用我們擁有的平台進行的操作感到非常興奮。
And on custom silicon, I think our thesis is playing out in that given the tremendous increases in complexity of these chips, it's not about just having one piece of it like design service fees or manufacturing capability, but it's everything. It's having the best-in-class technology roadmap in terms of nanometers, advanced packaging, I/O, et cetera, and then the ability to actually go execute these products. These are [100 billion] transistor type of chips, and sort of package them up, get them to yield, shipping them in volume, be ready to work on the next one in parallel, it's a massive sort of effort.
在客製化晶片方面,我認為我們的論點正在發揮作用,因為考慮到這些晶片的複雜性大幅增加,這不僅僅是擁有設計服務費或製造能力等其中一部分,而是一切。它在奈米、先進封裝、I/O 等方面擁有一流的技術路線圖,並且有能力實際執行這些產品。這些是[1000億]晶體管類型的晶片,將它們封裝起來,讓它們量產,批量運輸它們,準備好並行開發下一個晶片,這是一項巨大的努力。
And so we think that that still is going to be the winning strategy. And when we look at it from that point of view, we really have one large competitor that's very capable in this area as well. And we do think long term, given the amount of activity we see in AI, especially on the custom side, it's going to require really scaled up full solution providers and partners like Marvell to compete. So that's the current status of those two from a competitive dynamic.
因此我們認為這仍然是製勝策略。當我們從這個角度來看時,我們確實有一個在這一領域也非常有能力的大型競爭對手。我們確實從長遠來看,考慮到我們在人工智慧領域看到的大量活動,特別是在客製化方面,它將需要真正擴大規模的完整解決方案提供者和像 Marvell 這樣的合作夥伴來競爭。這就是這兩者目前的競爭動態。
Thanks for that.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Matt Ramsay, TD Cowen.
馬特·拉姆齊,TD·考恩。
Matt Ramsay - Analyst
Matt Ramsay - Analyst
Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everybody.
非常感謝。大家下午好。
I wanted to ask a longer-term question on your custom compute business. My incentives went up a little bit. One of the lines in the script, I think, was something to the effect of not just single generation relationships but multi-generation relationships with some of the customers in the custom business. And so I wanted to explore that a little. As we do get questions from investors on not the programs that are ramping now, but the subsequent generation and how confident you are in those.
我想問一個有關你們的客製化計算業務的長期問題。我的積極性提高了一點。我認為,腳本中的其中一行不僅影響單代關係,而且影響與客製化業務中的一些客戶的多代關係。所以我想對此進行一些探索。正如我們確實從投資者那裡收到的問題,不是現在正在推進的項目,而是下一代項目以及您對這些項目的信心如何。
So maybe you could speak to that. And I think the second part of the question as you're evaluating custom programs and compute, this isn't a question for just your company, but for your competitor as well. How much visibility do you guys get and when the software that will be run on those compute engines as they're deployed? I think that's pretty important in evaluating what volume might end up being or not being versus merchant suppliers. Thanks.
也許你可以談談這一點。我認為,當您評估自訂程式和計算時,問題的第二部分不僅是您公司的問題,也是您競爭對手的問題。你們獲得了多少可見性以及部署時將在這些計算引擎上運行的軟體?我認為這對於評估最終的銷售量與商業供應商的銷售量非常重要。謝謝。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Matt. And I think your question is one we get. I mean, I think since we won these designs, there's been a lot of noise in this area in custom in terms of from our international competitors, in particular. I mean, look, the reality is, despite wherever -- whatever has been said so far, we have executed these programs. They have upsided tremendously from when we won them and even as we signaled over the last 1.5 year another ramping into production. All of our engagements across the board that we see as we get deeper into this, there is absolutely a desire on the part of these customers to have a multigenerational view because the amount of work you put in to do one of these, it's a diminishing return to pivot too quickly, assuming you're doing a great job.
謝謝,馬特。我認為你的問題是我們收到的一個問題。我的意思是,我認為自從我們贏得這些設計以來,在客製化方面,特別是來自我們的國際競爭對手的噪音很大。我的意思是,你看,現實是,無論在哪裡——無論到目前為止說什麼,我們都已經執行了這些計劃。與我們贏得冠軍時相比,它們已經取得了巨大的進步,儘管我們在過去 1.5 年裡發出了再次投入生產的信號。隨著我們更深入地了解這一點,我們所看到的所有全面參與,這些客戶絕對希望擁有多代人的觀點,因為您為完成其中一項工作而投入的工作量正在遞減。很好,就太快地回到中心。
So we feel very good about it, Matt, is the bottom line. We have multiple engagements across multiple generations on different types of ICs that we're doing for these customers. We just announced, as an example, at the last AI day, we have won additional customer for AI silicon. And all of those are tracking well. So that's all I can say at the moment.
所以我們對此感覺非常好,馬特,這是底線。我們在為這些客戶提供的不同類型的 IC 上進行了多代合作。舉個例子,我們剛剛宣布,在最後一個人工智慧日,我們贏得了更多人工智慧晶片客戶。所有這些都進展順利。這就是我現在能說的。
I think you got to also look at what the results are and what our outlook is. And if you believe the thesis I gave you around what's important relative to being a long-term reliable partner, that's going to be there for the long term over multi generations, we think we're extremely well-positioned.
我認為你還必須看看結果是什麼以及我們的前景是什麼。如果您相信我為您提供的關於成為長期可靠合作夥伴的重要因素的論點,那麼我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置。
Operator
Operator
Christopher Rolland. Susquehanna.
克里斯多福羅蘭。薩斯奎哈納。
Christopher Rolland - Analyst
Christopher Rolland - Analyst
Hey, guys. Congrats on the results.
嘿,夥計們。祝賀結果。
I have an Inphi question primarily. And Matt, you talked about 1.6 T. That's pretty exciting. If I understood that correctly, you're going to be ramping in 3Q. Perhaps you can talk about the profile of this ramp, what it looks like in 3Q, 4Q, and into '25, I think. The Street's all over the place on this node, but if you could talk about that and maybe even the economics, what it means for you guys, that would be fantastic. Thank you.
我主要有一個 Inphi 問題。馬特,你談到了 1.6 T。如果我理解正確的話,你將在第三季實現成長。也許你可以談談這個斜坡的概況,我想它在第三季、第四季和 25 年會是什麼樣子。這條街在這個節點上到處都是,但如果你能談論這一點,甚至可能談論經濟學,這對你們意味著什麼,那就太棒了。謝謝。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, hey, thanks, Chris. Yeah, it's still early. We were first to market in this area having introduced these products at OFC a year ago. It's great to see that they're going into production. We will know a lot more when we start to see how our customers are planning to deploy it. But we are seeing initial shipments now. The way I would think about it, though, is 800 gig right now and through next year is still going to be the workhorse high volume platform and even some of the newer launches that are coming, as an example, are going to still support 800 gig as well as 1.6 T.
是的,嘿,謝謝,克里斯。是的,現在還早。一年前,我們在 OFC 上推出了這些產品,從而率先進入該領域。很高興看到它們即將投入生產。當我們開始了解客戶計劃如何部署它時,我們會了解更多。但我們現在看到了首批出貨。不過,我的想法是,現在 800 gig 到明年仍將是主力大容量平台,甚至一些即將推出的新產品,例如,仍將支援 800 gig 以及 1.6 T。
So it's really hard to call exactly. It's going to be an important transition. There's no question. The only question is the timing of which, and Chris, I think we'll be in a better position to comment on that probably as we get closer to the end of the year. We start looking at the setup for calendar '25 and what our customers are thinking. But either way, we're going to be well positioned for both of those opportunities for next year.
所以準確的調用確實很難。這將是一個重要的轉變。毫無疑問。唯一的問題是時機,克里斯,我認為當我們接近年底時,我們可能會更容易對此發表評論。我們開始研究 25 年日曆的設定以及客戶的想法。但無論哪種方式,我們都將為明年的這兩個機會做好準備。
Operator
Operator
Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.
哈蘭‧蘇爾,摩根大通。
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Harlan Sur - Analyst
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question and good to see the strong growth outlook. We've seen multiple quarters now of strong growth in nearline HDD to the cloud. And you know, those guys continue to expect anticipated growth sort of going forward. In addition to that, you guys have, I think, numerous next-generation PCIe Gen 5 enterprise SSD platforms ramping. I know it's been a couple of years, but I think those ramps are finally starting to happen.
午安.感謝您提出我的問題,很高興看到強勁的成長前景。我們已經看到近線 HDD 到雲端的多個季度的強勁成長。你知道,這些人繼續期待未來的預期成長。除此之外,我認為你們還有大量的下一代 PCIe Gen 5 企業 SSD 平台正在增加。我知道已經過去幾年了,但我認為這些坡道終於開始發生。
Is this all kind of contributing to the second half strength in the data center business and then more on the memory side, as customers are thinking about next gen HBM 4, 4e, sort of these next-generation architectures, there is the potential for customization on the base advanced logic data. It's a fairly complex piece of silicon. You guys have a lot of IP here. I'm wondering if you're winning any custom ASIC opportunities for some of these upcoming programs?
這是否有助於資料中心業務下半年的發展,然後在記憶體方面也有所貢獻,因為客戶正在考慮下一代 HBM 4、4e 等下一代架構,因此有客製化的潛力基於高級邏輯資料。這是一塊相當複雜的矽片。你們這裡有很多IP。我想知道您是否正在為這些即將推出的項目贏得任何定制 ASIC 機會?
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Harlan. Yeah, let me take the two pieces. On the first one, we're very pleased to see the recovery in data center storage. I think we're on like sixth quarter now of the turn, which is great. We bottomed out last year. It was a pretty severe downturn that we saw. It's been growing basically every quarter and we see this trend back over time. We had called it basically. It's getting back to like $200 million a quarter. It's not there yet, but it's on its way and that's had a nice recovery.
是的。謝謝,哈倫。是的,讓我拿兩塊。第一個,我們很高興看到資料中心儲存的恢復。我認為我們現在已經進入了第六節,這很棒。我們去年就觸底了。我們看到這是一次相當嚴重的衰退。它基本上每個季度都在增長,而且隨著時間的推移,我們看到這種趨勢又回來了。我們基本上已經這樣稱呼它了。每季營收將恢復到 2 億美元左右。它還沒有,但它正在路上,並且已經恢復得很好。
It hasn't been too spiky. It's just kind of been slow and steady on the way back up as inventories consume, as supply chain revitalizes, and quite frankly, it's great to see the end market commentary because that just gives us more confidence on that return over time.
還沒有太尖銳。隨著庫存的消耗、供應鏈的復甦,這種回升的過程是緩慢而穩定的,坦白說,很高興看到終端市場的評論,因為這讓我們對隨著時間的推移的回報更有信心。
And then even actually had it in my prepared remarks as one of the key offerings that we have on our AISC and AI platform is, we think, as you mentioned, that HBM and how to stitch all that together from a memory interconnect standpoint is going to be extremely important and it's complex and it's going to be, I think, a key part of the solution, just given how much -- how memory-intensive the current set of accelerators are, but also how they're looking at positioning for the next generation. So that's a key IP that Marvell is developing, and that will bring to the table as part of our platform offering for AI accelerators from a customer standpoint.
然後,實際上,在我準備好的發言中,我們認為,正如您所提到的,我們在AISC 和AI 平台上提供的關鍵產品之一是HBM 以及如何從內存互連的角度將所有這些縫合在一起非常重要,而且很複雜,我認為,它將成為解決方案的關鍵部分,只要考慮到當前加速器集的記憶體密集程度,以及他們如何考慮定位下一代。因此,這是 Marvell 正在開發的關鍵 IP,從客戶的角度來看,它將作為我們為 AI 加速器提供的平台的一部分。
Operator
Operator
Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.
亞倫·雷克斯,富國銀行。
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Aaron Rakers - Analyst
Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about the data center switching opportunity. Now that the 51.2 T silicon is in the market. Just if you could give us kind of a thought of like how we should expect that to ramp, appreciating that's more in the next fiscal year. But any kind of visibility in terms of how you how we should think about that opportunity to participate in these AI fabric build-outs going forward at Marvell? Thank you.
是的,感謝您提出問題。我想問一下資料中心切換的機會。現在51.2T矽已經上市。只是如果你能給我們一些想法,例如我們應該如何預期這一成長,並在下一財年實現更多成長。但是,我們應該如何看待 Marvell 未來參與這些 AI 結構建構的機會?謝謝。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Aaron. Thanks for the question. We outlined this opportunity at the Investor Day we did for AI. And basically, on the 51.2 T cycle we're in, we think we're well positioned. We had great success from an engineering standpoint to get the product to market pretty quickly relative to after -- relative to integrating the Innovium asset into Marvell and then bringing that product out with full Marvell 5 nanometer platform.
是的。嘿,亞倫。謝謝你的提問。我們在人工智慧投資者日概述了這個機會。基本上,在我們所處的 51.2 T 週期中,我們認為我們處於有利位置。從工程角度來看,我們取得了巨大成功,相對於將 Innovium 資產整合到 Marvell,然後透過完整的 Marvell 5 奈米平台推出該產品,我們很快就將產品推向市場。
We see strong interests not only on the 51.2 T generation that we're now starting to go into production to this year with a lead customer, but also our roadmap, we believe, is very compelling as well. And while we're a smaller player here today, we do have tremendous interest in this platform. And we think it's very strategic to Marvell relative to our investments in custom silicon and being the leader in interconnect and also even driving future technologies like silicon photonics.
我們不僅看到了人們對我們今年開始與主要客戶一起投產的 51.2 T 世代的濃厚興趣,而且我們相信我們的路線圖也非常引人注目。雖然我們今天只是一個規模較小的參與者,但我們確實對這個平台抱有極大的興趣。我們認為,相對於我們在客製化晶片方面的投資、成為互連領域的領導者,甚至推動矽光子學等未來技術的發展,這對 Marvell 來說非常具有戰略意義。
So to bring it back around, we're not quite sizing it yet in terms of what it can be. It's still early from the standpoint of when that technology is actually going to go into full bore production, but we think we're doing well, and we look forward to providing updates on that, Aaron, as kind of this develops. But we feel good right now. Thanks.
因此,為了讓它回來,我們還沒有完全確定它的規模。從該技術何時真正進入全口徑生產的角度來看還為時過早,但我們認為我們做得很好,我們期待隨著事態的發展提供相關更新,亞倫。但我們現在感覺很好。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Srini Pajjuri, Raymond James.
斯里尼·帕朱里,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。
Srini Pajjuri - Analyst
Srini Pajjuri - Analyst
Thank you. My question is about the traditional businesses, Matt. It's nice to see both of them recovering. And I think you're guiding for sequential growth into Q4 as well. Given that they are down so much, I think one's down [50], the others down almost [70] from its last year's levels, I'm just wondering how to think about the normalized run rate on a quarterly basis and when do you think we'll get there? And then once we get there, how do we think about, I guess, longer-term growth of these businesses? Thank you.
謝謝。我的問題是關於傳統企業的,馬特。很高興看到他們倆都康復了。我認為您也在指導第四季的連續成長。鑑於它們下降了這麼多,我認為一個下降了[50],其他下降了幾乎[70],比去年的水平,我只是想知道如何考慮每季度的標準化運行率以及什麼時候你認為我們會到達那裡嗎?然後,一旦我們到達那裡,我想我們如何考慮這些業務的長期成長?謝謝。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Great. Thanks for the question. Yeah, you're right. Those businesses have been down significantly from a year-over-year perspective. Some of that is due to also the overshoot that went on in post-pandemic fueled buildout that occurred and also all the dynamics we've seen across the industry, right, relative to people over ordering and then having too much inventory and then having to go deal with it.
是的。偉大的。謝謝你的提問。是的,你是對的。從年比來看,這些業務大幅下降。其中部分原因還在於疫情後發生的過度擴張,以及我們在整個行業中看到的所有動態,對吧,相對於人們過度訂購,然後庫存過多,然後不得不去處理它吧。
The good news is we've now seen that business after a flat first half pickup guiding both enterprise and carrier up mid-single over the third quarter and then growing faster than that in the fourth quarter and that the bookings have improved as well. So that's all positive.
好消息是,我們現在看到業務在上半年平穩回升後,引導企業和運營商在第三季度實現中單增長,然後比第四季度增長得更快,並且預訂量也有所改善。所以這都是正面的。
The way to think about it is we're trying to drive both of those businesses back and we believe we have line of sight to provide both of those businesses back to about $1 billion each, call it $2 billion in aggregate, maybe $2.2 billion of run rate on an annualized basis. So we hit the bottom in the first half. It's coming up in Q3, coming up in Q4, and we're monitoring the setup for next year. But we do believe that that is very achievable. That's the plan right now.
思考這個問題的方法是,我們正在努力推動這兩項業務的復甦,我們相信我們有能力將這兩項業務的營收分別恢復到 10 億美元左右,總計 20 億美元,也許是 22 億美元。年化運行率。所以我們在上半場就觸底了。它將在第三季、第四季推出,我們正在監控明年的設定。但我們確實相信這是可以實現的。這就是現在的計劃。
And then long term, if you go back to all of our Investor Days, probably for the last four or five years when we've done them, we've always signaled these markets to be kind of low- to mid-single growers, and then -- from a market standpoint, and then with some content or share gain, you can do a little bit better. 5G was a great example. We had very little content in 4G. We rocketed up in 5G. That changed the trajectory. But going forward, in that kind of a business as well as, or say, enterprise, you should assume the market grows at a fairly modest rate.
然後從長遠來看,如果你回顧我們所有的投資者日,可能是過去四五年我們舉辦的投資者日,我們總是暗示這些市場是中低單種植者,然後——從市場的角度來看,然後透過一些內容或份額的成長,你可以做得更好一點。 5G 就是一個很好的例子。我們的 4G 內容非常少。我們在 5G 領域飛速發展。這改變了軌跡。但展望未來,在這種業務以及企業中,您應該假設市場以相當溫和的速度成長。
And I think for investors to think about our growth rates in those areas being in those types of ranges, maybe whatever, mid-single kind of plus, if you can -- if we can continue to execute. I think that's fairly safe. They're not going to be great, enormous growth markets necessarily, but they are very accretive and they're very profitable businesses for Marvell. And they're important because they're long term and they're part of the portfolio.
我認為投資人應該考慮我們在這些領域的成長率是否在這些類型的範圍內,也許無論如何,如果可以的話,如果我們可以繼續執行的話,中等偏上。我認為這相當安全。它們不一定會成為龐大的、龐大的成長市場,但它們具有很強的增值性,並且對 Marvell 來說是非常有利可圖的業務。它們很重要,因為它們是長期的,並且是投資組合的一部分。
So that's some additional color on how to think about it. We are investing there. We're going to make sure that we continue to grow those businesses. But if you just step back, we've got 70% of our revenue today in data center. We've got a great, great opportunity with AI and accelerated infrastructure. We're continuing to pivot our R&D in that area overweight. And we think that from a financial return standpoint, this is the best place to put our precious R&D dollars. And so that's the way to think about Marvell going forward, only getting bigger in data center and really maintaining and driving a very healthy enterprise and carrier business long term. Thanks.
所以這是關於如何思考它的一些額外的顏色。我們在那裡投資。我們將確保繼續發展這些業務。但如果您退後一步,我們今天 70% 的收入來自資料中心。我們在人工智慧和加速基礎設施方面擁有非常非常好的機會。我們將繼續專注於該領域的研發。我們認為,從財務回報的角度來看,這是投入我們寶貴的研發資金的最佳地點。因此,這就是 Marvell 未來發展的思路,只會在資料中心領域不斷壯大,真正長期維護和推動非常健康的企業和營運商業務。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Quinn Bolton, Needham.
奎因·博爾頓,李約瑟。
Quinn Bolton - Analyst
Quinn Bolton - Analyst
Hey, Matt. I'll ask questions, but if you don't answer, maybe I'll follow up. You guys are talking about nice upside to the $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion target for AI. Is that something you think you're closer to $2 billion than $1.5 billion when all is said and done this year. I mean, can you give us any sort of quantification of the upside in AI revs? And if not, I'll follow up with a product question?
嘿,馬特。我會問問題,但如果你不回答,也許我會跟進。你們正在談論人工智慧 15 億美元和 25 億美元目標的巨大優勢。當今年一切塵埃落定後,您是否認為您的收入更接近 20 億美元,而不是 15 億美元?我的意思是,你能為我們提供有關人工智慧轉速上升趨勢的任何量化數據嗎?如果沒有,我會跟進一個產品問題?
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I don't think we're -- we're sort of fresh off $1.5 billion update from a few months back when we had our AI day. But I think if you if you look at the even like Q3, right, where overall revenue for the whole company is growing in mid-teens and then obviously guiding up data center much higher than that with AI driving it, and then saying also, Q4 is going to be extremely strong in data center and AI. You can probably draw a line of sight to it, but we're clearly, clearly exceeding the $1.5 billion, that's for sure.
是的,我不認為我們是——幾個月前人工智慧日時,我們剛剛完成了 15 億美元的更新。但我認為,如果你看看第三季度,對吧,整個公司的整體收入在十幾歲左右增長,然後顯然引導數據中心遠遠高於人工智能驅動的水平,然後說,第四季度在數據中心和人工智慧方面將非常強勁。你可能可以看到它,但我們顯然已經超過了 15 億美元,這是肯定的。
And then again, the setup for next year is really good because from an exit standpoint, we'll be at a very healthy level by [4] gig. We've added additional customers. So it's become a very important and strategic business for Marvell. And then to your point, in front of us, that roadmap is getting invested in very aggressively, both at 800 gig and then longer term, 1.6 T for DCI. So each of these different key technologies that we have now at interconnect, they're going gangbusters today, but there's also a next generation and the generation after [N+2L] that we're investing in very aggressively to maintain market leadership.
再說一遍,明年的設定非常好,因為從退出的角度來看,到 [4] 演出我們將處於非常健康的水平。我們增加了更多客戶。因此,它已成為 Marvell 非常重要的策略業務。然後就您的觀點而言,在我們面前,該路線圖正在非常積極地投資,無論是 800 gig,還是長期的 DCI 1.6 T。因此,我們現在在互連領域擁有的每一項不同的關鍵技術,它們今天都將成為重磅炸彈,但我們也正在大力投資下一代和[N+2L] 之後的下一代技術,以保持市場領先地位。
Yeah, thanks a lot. I think we got two questions left, operator.
是的,非常感謝。我想我們還剩下兩個問題,接線生。
Operator
Operator
Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler.
嚴厲的庫馬爾,派珀桑德勒。
Harsh Kumar - Analyst
Harsh Kumar - Analyst
Yeah. Hey, guys.
是的。嘿,夥計們。
First of all, let me just give my congratulations on very strong guide. The story is coming along. All businesses turning.
首先,讓我對非常強大的指導表示祝賀。故事正在發生。所有企業都在轉向。
Matt, I wanted to ask you, you seem extremely enthusiastic asked about custom ASIC near term as well as next year. Could you talk about some of the major drivers or major products, however, you want to do it, that are hitting -- that's giving you this optimistic viewpoint of the near, mid, and call it, even the next year outlook?
Matt,我想問你,你似乎非常熱衷於詢問近期和明年的客製化 ASIC。您能否談談一些您想做的主要驅動因素或主要產品,它們正在發揮作用,這讓您對近期、中期甚至明年的前景抱有樂觀的看法?
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Well, I think, as we had outlined in the past, there's been several programs that we won, a broad range of them actually, in custom silicon for data center. And then, the ones that were levered to AI have just taken off and you're starting to see that in our financials. And so I mean, maybe not to make it too simple, but the reason we're excited is we're getting bookings and we have backlog and we're planning our capacity ramps for next year, and we're talking about the next generation.
是的。嗯,我認為,正如我們過去概述的那樣,我們贏得了幾個數據中心定制晶片項目,實際上範圍很廣。然後,那些利用人工智慧的企業剛起飛,你開始在我們的財務數據中看到這一點。所以我的意思是,也許不要讓它變得太簡單,但我們興奮的原因是我們收到了預訂,我們有積壓,我們正在計劃明年的產能提升,我們正在談論下一個世代。
And so I think, this was -- these went from design wins a few years ago to trying to execute NPI and get the chips taped out to then trying to get them qualify and make sure that they worked relatively quickly once they came back, which they did. And now they're ramping. So it's just part of the evolution.
所以我認為,這就是——從幾年前的設計勝利,到嘗試執行 NPI 並讓晶片流片,再到嘗試讓它們合格並確保它們回來後相對較快地工作,這他們做到了。現在他們正在加速。所以這只是進化的一部分。
But I mean, it feels really good when you have backlog and you have bookings and you have a strong outlook from your customer and you're planning your future together. So that's really it. I mean, I can't go into what they're using it for and their workloads and all that kind of thing. But the conviction from our customers on the programs we have are very strong in terms of their commitment to deploy and to deploy very aggressively using us -- using their chips plus Marvell as their key partner and we'll go let them get all the glory as they deploy and they achieve their silicon ambitions with us, kind of, in the backdrop to make sure we're there to help them. But let them go, do what they need to do.
但我的意思是,當你有積壓訂單、有預訂、客戶對你有強烈的前景並且你正在一起規劃你的未來時,感覺真的很好。就是這樣。我的意思是,我無法詳細了解他們使用它的目的以及他們的工作負載以及諸如此類的事情。但我們的客戶對我們的計劃的信心非常強烈,他們承諾部署,並且使用我們非常積極地部署 - 使用他們的芯片加上 Marvell 作為他們的主要合作夥伴,我們將讓他們獲得所有榮耀當他們部署並與我們一起實現他們的矽野心時,某種程度上,在確保我們在那裡幫助他們的背景下。但讓他們走吧,做他們需要做的事。
Operator
Operator
Karl Ackerman, BNP Paribas.
卡爾‧阿克曼,法國巴黎銀行。
Karl Ackerman - Analyst
Karl Ackerman - Analyst
Yes, thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for squeezing me in. Could you talk about the breadth of cloud titans you have, ramping 800 gig electro-optics that anchors your view on the second half? And given your industry-leading position in electro-optics, have you seen growing evidence that US cloud titans are seeking to diversify the procurement of optical transceivers outside of China? I ask because that would appear to be a share opportunity for you. Thank you.
是的,謝謝。下午好,感謝您邀請我參與。鑑於您在電光領域的行業領先地位,您是否看到越來越多的證據表明美國雲端巨頭正在尋求中國以外光收發器採購的多元化?我這麼問是因為這對你來說似乎是個分享的機會。謝謝。
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks, Karl. I'd say, just broadly, we're -- the market share in aggregate is pretty high for us in this area. So we tend to be engaged pretty much with everybody. And I think that trend you mentioned about the supply chain diversification and kind of concerns about geopolitical risk across the supply chain by the hyperscale customers is a real thing. They really care about it. What I would say is there are efforts from both international suppliers into that space of modules as an example to diversify their supply chains and also the US-based folks trying to make sure that they have a supply chain as well. That's acceptable.
是的,謝謝,卡爾。我想說,從廣義上講,我們在這一領域的整體市場份額相當高。所以我們傾向於與每個人都有密切的接觸。我認為你提到的供應鏈多元化趨勢以及超大規模客戶對整個供應鏈地緣政治風險的擔憂是真實存在的。他們真的很關心它。我想說的是,國際供應商都在努力進入模組領域,以實現供應鏈多元化,美國供應商也試圖確保他們也擁有供應鏈。這是可以接受的。
So look, we're happy to work with everybody. We've driven a very broad ecosystem of partnerships. And I think, in any case, we should be just fine. I'm not sure there's going to be any major shifts. This has kind of been going -- it's been underway for many years, quite frankly, relative to just those concerns you mentioned being out there. So we've kind of tracked with those pretty well. We've stayed, I think, very competitive and very neutral relative to how to support everybody and ship as much revenue as we can.
所以看,我們很高興與大家合作。我們推動了非常廣泛的合作夥伴生態系統。我認為,無論如何,我們應該沒問題。我不確定是否會有任何重大轉變。坦白說,相對於你提到的那些擔憂,這種情況已經持續了很多年。所以我們已經很好地跟踪了這些。我認為,在如何支持每個人並盡可能提供收入方面,我們一直保持著非常有競爭力和非常中立的態度。
Okay, operator, I think we can end the call. Thanks for everybody for joining. Really appreciate it. I look forward to all the catch ups in the callbacks and then also when we're on the road at the conferences.
好的,接線員,我想我們可以結束通話了。感謝大家的加入。真的很感激。我期待著回電中的所有情況,以及我們在路上參加會議時的情況。
Thanks, everybody.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session. And thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
問答環節到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。