馬拉松石油 (MRO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Marathon Oil Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到馬拉松石油第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Guy Baber, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Guy Baber。請繼續。

Thank you, Anita, and thank you as well to everyone for joining us on the call this morning. Yesterday, after the close, we issued a press release, a slide presentation and investor package that address our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results as well as our 2023 outlook. These documents can be found on our website at marathonoil.com.

謝謝你，安妮塔，也感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。昨天收盤後，我們發布了一份新聞稿、一份幻燈片演示文稿和一份投資者資料包，闡述了我們 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績以及 2023 年的展望。這些文件可以在我們的網站 marathonoil.com 上找到。

Joining me on today's call are Lee Tillman, our Chairman, President and CEO; Dane Whitehead, our Executive VP and CFO; and Pat Wagner, our Executive VP of Corporate Development and Strategy; and Mike Henderson, our Executive VP of Operations.

與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Lee Tillman；我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Dane Whitehead；和 Pat Wagner，我們的企業發展和戰略執行副總裁；和我們的運營執行副總裁 Mike Henderson。

As a reminder, today's call will contain forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. As always, I'll refer everyone to the cautionary language included in the press release and presentation materials as well as the risk factors described in our SEC filings. We'll also reference certain non-GAAP terms in today's discussion, which have been reconciled and defined in our earnings materials.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議將包含受風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與此類陳述明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。與往常一樣，我會提醒大家注意新聞稿和演示材料中包含的警示性語言，以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的風險因素。我們還將在今天的討論中引用某些非 GAAP 條款，這些條款已在我們的收益材料中進行了協調和定義。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Lee and the rest of the team who will provide prepared remarks. After the completion of these remarks, we'll move to a question-and-answer session. Lee?

有了這個，我會把電話轉給李和團隊的其他成員，他們將提供準備好的評論。完成這些評論後，我們將進入問答環節。李?

Thank you, Guy, and good morning to everyone listening to our call today. First, I want to thank our employees and contractors for their collective contributions to another remarkable year. A year that can only be described as comprehensive delivery against all dimensions of our well-established framework for success. The dedication and hardware as well as your steadfast commitment to our core values, including safety and environmental excellence, have made it possible -- have made possible the exceptional results I get to talk about today. So thank you.

謝謝你，蓋伊，早上好，今天聽我們電話的每個人。首先，我要感謝我們的員工和承包商為又一個不平凡的一年做出的集體貢獻。這一年只能被描述為全面交付我們完善的成功框架的所有方面。奉獻和硬件以及您對我們核心價值觀（包括安全和環境卓越）的堅定承諾使這一切成為可能 - 使我今天要談論的卓越成果成為可能。所以謝謝。

2022 truly was an exceptional year. But our outlook for 2023 and beyond is equally compelling. While the team and I will cover a lot of ground today, I'll start by highlighting a few key themes. First, we're successfully executing on the more S&P, less E&P mandate, our champion for the last few years. We are delivering financial and operational outcomes not just at the top of our high-performing E&P peer group, but at the very top of the S&P 500.

2022 年確實是不平凡的一年。但我們對 2023 年及以後的展望同樣令人信服。雖然我和我的團隊今天將涵蓋很多內容，但我將從強調幾個關鍵主題開始。首先，我們成功地執行了更多的 S&P，更少的 E&P 授權，這是我們過去幾年的冠軍。我們提供的財務和運營成果不僅在我們高性能的 E&P 同行組中名列前茅，而且在標準普爾 500 指數中名列前茅。

The results in 2022 really do speak for themselves. $4 billion of adjusted free cash flow generation, the strongest free cash flow yield in our peer group and 1 of the top 5 free cash flow yields in the entire S&P 500. The lowest reinvestment rate in our peer group, a full 10 percentage points below the S&P 500 average and 1 of the lowest capital intensities. All indicators of a now well-established capital and operating efficiency advantage relative to a high-performing peer group.

2022 年的結果確實不言而喻。 40 億美元的調整後自由現金流產生，是我們同行中自由現金流收益率最高的，也是整個標準普爾 500 指數中自由現金流收益率前 5 名之一。我們同行中再投資率最低，低整整 10 個百分點標準普爾 500 平均指數和最低資本密集度之一。與高績效同行相比，目前已確立的資本和運營效率優勢的所有指標。

Second, we're returning significant capital back to our shareholders through our cash flow-driven return of capital framework. Our framework is transparent. It's differentiated and prioritizes our investors as the first call on capital, and it uniquely protects shareholder distributions from capital inflation.

其次，我們通過現金流驅動的資本回報框架向股東返還大量資本。我們的框架是透明的。它區分並優先考慮我們的投資者作為資本的第一個呼籲，它獨特地保護股東分配免受資本膨脹的影響。

During 2022, we returned 55% of our adjusted free cash flow from operations or $3 billion to shareholders. And for those keeping score relative to the free cash flow based models of our peers, that equates to about 75% of free cash flow.

2022 年期間，我們將 55% 的調整後運營自由現金流或 30 億美元返還給股東。對於那些保持相對於我們同行基於自由現金流的模型得分的人來說，這相當於自由現金流的 75% 左右。

That also translates to a 17% shareholder distribution yield, the highest distribution yield on our E&P peer space, and 1 of the top 10 distribution yields in the entire S&P 500. We remain steadfast in our commitment to the powerful combination of a competitive and sustainable base dividend in addition to consistent share repurchases.

這也意味著 17% 的股東分配收益率，是我們 E&P 同行空間中最高的分配收益率，以及整個標準普爾 500 指數中前 10 名分配收益率之一。我們始終堅定地致力於將具有競爭力和可持續發展的強大組合除了一致的股票回購外，還有基本股息。

That consistency paid off with $2.8 billion of accretive share repurchases that reduced our share count by 15% and driving significant growth on a per share basis. Rewinding all the way back to the start of this most recent share repurchase program in October of 2021, we have reduced our share count by 20%. again, leading the peer group. And we raised our base dividend 3 times during 2022, bringing our track record to 7 increases in the last 8 quarters.

這種一致性帶來了 28 億美元的增值股票回購，使我們的股票數量減少了 15%，並推動了每股收益的顯著增長。回溯到 2021 年 10 月開始的最新股票回購計劃，我們已將股票數量減少了 20%。再次，領先同行。我們在 2022 年期間將基本股息提高了 3 次，使我們的記錄在過去 8 個季度增加了 7 次。

Third, we successfully closed on the Ensign acquisition before year-end, materially strengthening our portfolio and enhancing our Eagle Ford scale. The Ensign acquisition makes us a stronger company, checking every box of our disciplined acquisition criteria. It's accretive to key financial metrics, it's accretive to our return of capital framework, it's accretive to our high-quality inventory life, and it offers compelling industrial logic in the core of a basin we know well.

第三，我們在年底前成功完成了對 Ensign 的收購，極大地加強了我們的產品組合併擴大了 Eagle Ford 的規模。對 Ensign 的收購使我們成為一家更強大的公司，檢查了我們嚴格的收購標準的每一個框。它增加了關鍵財務指標，增加了我們的資本回報率框架，增加了我們高質量的庫存壽命，並在我們熟知的盆地核心提供了令人信服的工業邏輯。

Pat will provide additional details later on the call, but in short, integration efforts are progressing well, and initial 2023 results have outperformed our expectations.

Pat 稍後將在電話會議上提供更多細節，但簡而言之，整合工作進展順利，2023 年的初步結果超出了我們的預期。

Finally, while 2022 was certainly a banner year, I'm just as excited about our potential in 2023 and beyond. Fully consistent with our disciplined capital allocation framework, our 2023 budget prioritizes significant free cash flow generation, and return of capital to shareholders.

最後，雖然 2022 年無疑是標誌性的一年，但我對我們在 2023 年及以後的潛力同樣感到興奮。與我們嚴格的資本分配框架完全一致，我們的 2023 年預算優先考慮產生大量自由現金流和向股東返還資本。

As referenced commodity prices of $80 WTI, $3 Henry Hub and $20 TTF, we expect to generate $2.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow, and we expect to return a minimum of $1.8 billion to our shareholders, providing clear visibility to a double-digit shareholder distribution yield.

作為 80 美元 WTI、3 美元 Henry Hub 和 20 美元 TTF 的參考商品價格，我們預計將產生 26 億美元的調整後自由現金流，我們預計將至少向股東返還 18 億美元，為兩位數的股東提供清晰的可見性分配收益率。

And recognizing the ongoing volatility in commodity prices, particularly natural gas, it is important to note that a $0.50 per MMBtu change in Henry Hub only impacts our annual cash flow by just over $100 million. Only $1 dollar change in WTI moves cash flow by about $70 million. reflecting continued leverage to oil pricing and our balanced portfolio.

認識到大宗商品價格（尤其是天然氣）的持續波動，重要的是要注意，亨利中心每百萬英熱單位 0.50 美元的變化只會影響我們每年超過 1 億美元的現金流。 WTI 僅 1 美元的變化就會使現金流量增加約 7000 萬美元。反映了對石油定價和我們平衡的投資組合的持續影響。

Once again, we fully expect to lead our peer group and the broader S&P 500 when it comes to the financial and operation metrics that matter most: Free cash flow generation, capital and operating efficiency and shareholder distributions. And while our 2023 outlook is compelling, we're even better positioned for 2024 as our unique integrated gas business in Equatorial Guinea will benefit from an increase to global LNG price exposure. Just as a reminder, the current Henry Hub index contract for equity Alba gas through EG LNG, expires at the end of 2023, and we will move to a market-based global LNG linkage.

再一次，我們完全有希望在最重要的財務和運營指標方面領先我們的同行和更廣泛的標準普爾 500 指數：自由現金流產生、資本和運營效率以及股東分配。雖然我們 2023 年的前景令人信服，但我們在 2024 年的定位甚至更好，因為我們在赤道幾內亞獨特的綜合天然氣業務將受益於全球液化天然氣價格敞口的增加。提醒一下，目前通過 EG LNG 購買 Alba 天然氣股權的 Henry Hub 指數合約將於 2023 年底到期，我們將轉向以市場為基礎的全球 LNG 鏈接。

With the current and significant arbitrage between Henry Hub and global LNG prices, we expect this to translate into an uplift to 2024 EBITDA of $500 million to potentially more than $1 billion relative to 2023.

由於 Henry Hub 與全球液化天然氣價格之間存在當前顯著的套利，我們預計這將轉化為 2024 年 EBITDA 增加 5 億美元，相對於 2023 年可能超過 10 億美元。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dane, who will provide more detail around our return of capital performance and outlook. Dane?

有了這個，我將把它交給戴恩，他將提供更多關於我們的資本回報率和前景的細節。丹麥人？

Thank you, Lee. Good morning to all. [We're here to] return capital high points. But given the importance of the topic, I'll further elaborate on our framework, our execution and our outlook. As we stated before, returning a significant amount of capital to shareholders through the cycle remains foundational to our value proposition in the marketplace. When it comes to shareholder distributions, track record matters. We're building a track record we're really proud of, and that investors can trust.

謝謝你，李。大家早上好。 [我們來這裡是為了]回報資本高點。但鑑於該主題的重要性，我將進一步闡述我們的框架、我們的執行和我們的展望。正如我們之前所說，通過週期向股東返還大量資本仍然是我們在市場上的價值主張的基礎。在股東分配方面，業績記錄很重要。我們正在建立我們真正引以為豪的業績記錄，投資者可以信賴。

During 2022, we returned 55% of our CFO to shareholders, significantly exceeding our 40% of CFO framework commitment. Total shareholder distributions amounted to $3 billion, good for a total shareholder distribution yield of 17%. That's the highest in our peer space in 1 of the top distribution yields in the S&P 500. That includes $2.8 billion of accretive share repurchases during the year.

2022 年，我們將 55% 的 CFO 返還給了股東，大大超過了我們 40% 的 CFO 框架承諾。股東總分配額達 30 億美元，股東總分配收益率為 17%。這是標準普爾 500 指數中最高發行收益率之一的同行中最高的。這包括年內 28 億美元的增值股票回購。

We continue to believe that buying back our stock is an excellent use of capital due to the value we see with our shares trading at a free cash flow yield in the upper teens. Repurchases are value-accretive, a very efficient means to drive per share growth and are synergistic to growing our base dividend. During 2022, we reduced our share count by 15%. And since reinitiating our share repurchase program in October of 2021, we've reduced our share count by more than 20% and by far, the most significant share count reduction in our peer space, as shown on the bottom right graphic on Slide 7.

我們仍然相信，回購我們的股票是一種很好的資本利用，因為我們看到我們的股票以十幾歲以上的自由現金流收益率交易。回購可以增值，是推動每股增長的一種非常有效的方式，並且與增加我們的基本股息具有協同作用。 2022 年期間，我們將股份數量減少了 15%。自 2021 年 10 月重新啟動我們的股票回購計劃以來，我們的股票數量減少了 20% 以上，這是迄今為止我們同行空間中最顯著的股票數量減少，如幻燈片 7 右下圖所示。

Another benefit of our buyback program is the capacity it creates for ongoing growth in our per share base dividend. We recently raised our quarterly base dividend by 11% to $0.10 per share, the seventh increase in the trailing 8 quarters. While this most recent increase has more been fully funded by incremental cash flow from the Ensign acquisition, ongoing share count reductions from our buyback program create clear potential for further base dividend increases in the future.

我們回購計劃的另一個好處是它為我們的每股基本股息的持續增長創造了能力。我們最近將季度基本股息提高了 11% 至每股 0.10 美元，這是過去 8 個季度中的第七次增長。雖然最近的增長更多地是由收購 Ensign 產生的增量現金流提供資金，但我們回購計劃持續減少的股票數量為未來進一步增加基本股息創造了明顯的潛力。

Our operating cash flow driven framework is differentiated and it protects distributions from the effects of capital inflation. Offsetting inflation is on us. We believe this makes for a stronger commitment to our investors as our investors will truly get the first call on cash flow.

我們的運營現金流驅動框架與眾不同，它可以保護分配免受資本通脹的影響。抵消通貨膨脹是我們的責任。我們相信，這會讓我們對投資者做出更堅定的承諾，因為我們的投資者將真正得到現金流的第一手通知。

For 2023, the recently completed Ensign acquisition makes our framework even more shareholder-friendly adding close to 20% to our pre-acquisition operating cash flow and, therefore, adding 20% to our shareholder distribution capacity. In addition, with the 2022 financial -- actual financial results in hand, along with the December close of Ensign, we anticipate we'll be able to defer U.S. cash alternative minimum taxes to 2024.

到 2023 年，最近完成的 Ensign 收購使我們的框架對股東更加友好，使我們的收購前經營現金流增加了近 20%，因此，我們的股東分配能力增加了 20%。此外，有了 2022 年的財務——實際財務結果，以及 12 月結束的 Ensign，我們預計我們將能夠將美國現金替代最低稅推遲到 2024 年。

Our objective for 2023 is to firmly adhere to our return of capital framework continuing to return at least 40% of CFO, while also paying down at, including some of the Ensign related acquisition financing. We believe we can do both. Maintain our return of capital leadership in the superior space, which is the top priority and continue to enhance our already investment-grade balance sheet through gross debt reduction all supported by our financial strength and flexibility.

我們 2023 年的目標是堅定地遵守我們的資本回報框架，繼續返還至少 40% 的 CFO，同時還款，包括一些與 Ensign 相關的收購融資。我們相信我們可以做到這兩點。保持我們在優勢領域的資本回報率是重中之重，並在我們的財務實力和靈活性的支持下，通過削減債務總額繼續增強我們已經處於投資級的資產負債表。

On the balance sheet, we have about $200 million of high coupon USX debt maturing, and we plan to pay that off with cash on hand to reduce gross debt and interest expense. We also have $200 million of the low-cost tax-exempt bonds maturing in 2023. These tax exempt bonds are a unique and very flexible component of our capital structure. We plan to leverage the cost advantage of our tax-exempt credit capacity to refinance those bonds in 2023. And we have the optionality to do the same with future tax exempt maturities in 2024 and 2026.

在資產負債表上，我們有大約 2 億美元的高息 USX 債務到期，我們計劃用手頭現金償還，以減少總債務和利息支出。我們還有 2 億美元的低成本免稅債券將於 2023 年到期。這些免稅債券是我們資本結構中獨特且非常靈活的組成部分。我們計劃利用我們免稅信貸能力的成本優勢，在 2023 年為這些債券再融資。我們可以選擇對 2024 年和 2026 年到期的免稅債券進行同樣的操作。

With regard to shareholder returns, our 40% return to capital commitment in 2023 provides visibility to $1.8 billion of minimum shareholder distributions at our reference price deck. That's a double-digit return of capital yield, 1 of the highest in our peer space.

關於股東回報，我們 2023 年 40% 的資本承諾回報率讓我們可以看到在我們的參考價位下 18 億美元的最低股東分配。這是兩位數的資本收益率回報率，是我們同行中最高的回報率之一。

We've been executing share repurchases so far in Q1 '23 and plan to continue to do so, consistent with our framework, and we have ample capacity in our current Board authorization to keep moving. While 40% represents a good starting point for your models, our track record has been (inaudible) exceed that minimum return, and we'll look to keep that track record intact in 2023. Especially if we benefit from any commodity price support over the balance of the year, which would significantly enhance both shareholder returns and debt reduction. We have tremendous leverage to commodity price improvement and we'll use that to the benefit of our shareholders.

到目前為止，我們一直在 23 年第一季度執行股票回購，併計劃按照我們的框架繼續這樣做，我們目前的董事會授權有足夠的能力繼續前進。雖然 40% 代表您的模型的良好起點，但我們的業績記錄（聽不清）超過了最低迴報率，我們希望在 2023 年保持這一業績記錄不變。特別是如果我們受益於任何商品價格支持年度餘額，這將顯著提高股東回報和債務減少。我們對商品價格改善有巨大的影響力，我們將利用它來造福我們的股東。

Now I'll turn the call over to Pat, who will briefly walk us through an update on the Ensign acquisition.

現在我將把電話轉給 Pat，他將簡要地向我們介紹 Ensign 收購的最新情況。

Thanks, Dane. Consistent with our market commitment, we successfully closed on the Ensign acquisition before the end of the year. As we've stated, this transaction checks all the boxes of our M&A framework.

謝謝，戴恩。與我們的市場承諾一致，我們在年底前成功完成了對 Ensign 的收購。正如我們所說，這項交易符合我們併購框架的所有條件。

Immediate financial accretion, return of capital accretion consistent with Dane's comments, accretion to inventory life and quality and industrial logic with enhanced scale, all on maintaining our financial strength and investment-grade balance sheet. And we based our Ensign valuation on a 1-rig maintenance program with no credit for potential upside associated with redevelopment of refracs. Our focus now is on integration and execution.

立即的財務增長，與 Dane 的評論一致的資本增長回報，庫存壽命和質量的增長以及規模擴大的工業邏輯，所有這些都是為了維持我們的財務實力和投資級資產負債表。我們的 Ensign 估值基於 1 個鑽井平台的維護計劃，沒有考慮與重新開發相關的潛在上行空間。我們現在的重點是整合和執行。

In terms of integration, early efforts have gone exceptionally well. We had originally planned for major elements of the transition to take up to 4 months post-close. We now expect to be substantially complete with operations transition activities by the end of this month. That accelerated time line is in large measure due to the excellent collaboration and cooperation between both organizations and it serves to underscore the execution confidence that comes with an acquisition and an established basin that has a track record of success.

在整合方面，早期的努力非常順利。我們最初計劃過渡的主要部分在關閉後最多需要 4 個月的時間。我們現在預計到本月底將基本完成運營過渡活動。加速的時間線在很大程度上歸功於兩個組織之間的出色協作與合作，它有助於強調收購和擁有成功記錄的既定盆地帶來的執行信心。

On the execution side, as highlighted on Slide 11 of the deck, early well performance is consistent with our stated view that the acquired Ensign inventory has the potential to deliver some of the best returns and the highest capital efficiency in the Eagle Ford, and therefore, in the entire Lower 48. Our first 2 pads, 9 wells in total, are outperforming expectations, delivering top decile oil productivity in the basin.

在執行方面，正如幻燈片 11 中強調的那樣，早期油井的表現與我們聲明的觀點一致，即收購的 Ensign 庫存有可能在 Eagle Ford 帶來一些最好的回報和最高的資本效率，因此，在整個 Lower 48。我們的前 2 個油田，總共 9 口井，表現超出預期，在盆地提供了最高的石油生產率。

This year, we plan to bring approximately 40 wells to sales on the acquired acreage accounting for about 1/3 of our total Eagle Ford program. The Ensign wells are expected to deliver accretive capital efficiency and financial returns from comparable oil productivity to those in our legacy Eagle Ford program.

今年，我們計劃在已收購的土地上銷售約 40 口井，約佔 Eagle Ford 計劃總數的 1/3。 Ensign 油井預計將通過與我們遺留的 Eagle Ford 計劃相當的石油生產率提供增加的資本效率和財務回報。

I'll now hand over to Mike to provide more color on our 2023 capital program.

我現在將交給邁克，為我們的 2023 年資本計劃提供更多色彩。

Thanks, Pat. Turning to Slide 12 of our deck. I'll provide a brief overview of the high points of our 2023 capital pool. As expected, consistent with our disciplined capital allocation framework and our more S&P, less E&P mandate, we expect to deliver strong free cash flow and significant capital to our shareholders across a band of commodity prices as the graphics on the right of the slide show.

謝謝，帕特。轉到我們甲板上的幻燈片 12。我將簡要概述我們 2023 年資本池的要點。正如預期的那樣，根據我們嚴格的資本配置框架和我們更多的 S&P，更少的 E&P 授權，我們預計將在一系列商品價格範圍內為我們的股東提供強勁的自由現金流和大量資本，如幻燈片右側的圖形所示。

At our reference price deck, we expect our $1.9 billion to $2 billion capital budget to deliver $2.6 billion adjusted free cash flow at just over a 40% reinvestment rate. As Lee and Dane both highlighted, we expect to return at least $1.8 billion of capital to our shareholders. To deliver these financial outcomes, we'll operate approximately (inaudible) 9 rigs and 3 to 4 frac crews on average this year. We expect 2023 capital to be first half weighted, with about 60% of our total capital spend concentrated in the first half of the year largely driven by the timing of our activity.

按照我們的參考價格，我們預計我們 19 億美元至 20 億美元的資本預算將以略高於 40% 的再投資率提供 26 億美元的調整後自由現金流。正如 Lee 和 Dane 都強調的那樣，我們預計將向股東返還至少 18 億美元的資本。為了實現這些財務成果，我們今年平均將運營大約（聽不清）9 台鑽井平台和 3 至 4 名壓裂人員。我們預計 2023 年的資本將在上半年加權，我們總資本支出的 60% 左右集中在今年上半年，這主要是受我們活動時間的推動。

At the midpoint of our guidance, we expect to deliver maintenance level oil production of approximately 190,000 barrels of oil per day. Flat relative to 2022 after incorporating Ensign volumes. As is typical for our business, there will be some standard quarter-to-quarter variability throughout the year.

在我們指導的中點，我們預計每天可提供約 190,000 桶石油的維持水平石油產量。合併 Ensign 卷後與 2022 年持平。正如我們業務的典型情況，全年會有一些標準的季度間變化。

The lower end of our annual guidance range is a good starting point for our first quarter total oil production, approximately 185,000 barrels of oil per die. This is largely a reflection of activity timing and the associated impact on well sales, along with a very modest negative carryover impact from winter storm Elliot, concentrated in the Bakken. With activity and wells to sales weighted to the first 2 quarters of the year, we expect to see an improving production trend for oil into the second and third quarters.

我們年度指導範圍的下限是我們第一季度總石油產量的良好起點，每個模具約 185,000 桶石油。這在很大程度上反映了活動時間和對油井銷售的相關影響，以及集中在巴肯的冬季風暴埃利奧特的非常溫和的負面結轉影響。由於今年前兩個季度的活動和油井銷售比重較大，我們預計第二和第三季度石油產量將出現改善趨勢。

Turning to oil equivalent production. The midpoint of our guidance is 395,000 oil equivalent barrels per day, inclusive of a planned second quarter turnaround in EG that is designed to set us up for a high level of uptime in 2024. Overall, our 2023 plan is a disciplined and high confidence program designed to deliver strong financial and operational outcomes.

轉向石油當量產量。我們指導的中點是每天 395,000 油當量桶，包括計劃中的 EG 第二季度周轉，旨在讓我們在 2024 年實現高水平的正常運行時間。總體而言，我們的 2023 年計劃是一個有紀律且高度自信的計劃旨在提供強大的財務和運營成果。

In the Eagle Ford, we run a 4-rig program. We expect an improving well productivity trend in 2023 from an already strong 2022, due in part to Ensign contributions. In the Bakken, we will run 3 rigs in average again, focusing our activity in our high-quality Hector area (inaudible), where the average well pays out and less than 6 months at current commodity prices. In the Permian, we expect to continue improving our capital efficiency by increasing on average lateral lines to 10,000 feet this year, an increase of over 25% in 2022.

在 Eagle Ford，我們運行一個 4-rig 程序。我們預計 2023 年的油井生產率趨勢將在 2022 年已經強勁的基礎上有所改善，部分原因是 Ensign 的貢獻。在 Bakken，我們將再次平均運行 3 個鑽井平台，將我們的活動集中在我們的優質 Hector 地區（聽不清），那裡的平均油井回報率低於當前商品價格的 6 個月。在二疊紀，我們預計今年將平均側線增加到 10,000 英尺，從而繼續提高我們的資本效率，到 2022 年將增加 25% 以上。

While our headline Permian (inaudible) guidance looks similar to last year, the strong well productivity and competitive drilling and completion performance that we've delivered is getting back to work over the second half supports a higher level of capital allocation. We, therefore, plan to spud between 25 and 30 wells this year inclusive of at least 1 multi-well pad in our Texas Delaware, Meramac Woodford fleet, which will support a higher level of wells sales in early 2024.

雖然我們的標題二疊紀（聽不清）指導看起來與去年相似，但我們提供的強勁的油井生產率和具有競爭力的鑽井和完井性能正在下半年恢復工作，支持更高水平的資本配置。因此，我們計劃在今年開鑽 25 至 30 口井，其中包括至少 1 個多孔平台，用於我們位於德克薩斯州特拉華州、Meramac Woodford 的車隊，這將支持 2024 年初更高水平的油井銷售。

Our Texas Delaware position is no longer an exploration play. The asset is now fully integrated into our Permian asset development team where it will compete for capital on a heads-up basis with all the other assets.

我們在德州特拉華州的位置不再是探索遊戲。該資產現已完全整合到我們的 Permian 資產開發團隊中，它將與所有其他資產在單挑的基礎上爭奪資本。

So our Oklahoma asset continues to provide us valuable optionality to a fundamental strengthening of the gas and NGL price environment. We aren't exposing much capital to the asset this year. Rather, near-term activity is limited to a 1.5 rig joint venture program that will allow us to efficiently defend our acreage position and delineate some lower priority acreage limited scope and capital.

因此，我們在俄克拉荷馬州的資產繼續為我們提供寶貴的選擇權，以從根本上加強天然氣和 NGL 價格環境。今年我們沒有向該資產投入太多資金。相反，近期活動僅限於 1.5 個鑽機的合資計劃，這將使我們能夠有效地捍衛我們的種植面積地位並劃定一些較低優先級的種植面積有限範圍和資本。

With that, I'll turn it over to Lee, who will provide an update on our Integrated Gas business in Equatorial Guinea.

有了這個，我將把它交給李，他將提供我們在赤道幾內亞的綜合天然氣業務的最新情況。

Thank you, Mike. 2022 was an exceptional year for our unique world-class integrated gas business in EG. We delivered over $600 million of equity income more than double our guidance at the beginning of the year. And we generated approximately $900 million of EBITDA. Our results were driven by solid operational performance as well as higher-than-expected commodity pricing, especially for Henry Hub and European natural gas.

謝謝你，邁克。 2022 年對於我們在 EG 獨特的世界級綜合天然氣業務來說是不平凡的一年。我們實現了超過 6 億美元的股權收益，是年初預期的兩倍多。我們產生了大約 9 億美元的 EBITDA。我們的業績受到穩健的運營業績以及高於預期的商品定價的推動，尤其是亨利港和歐洲天然氣。

For 2023, we expect equity income and EBITDA to decline largely due to assume significantly lower commodity prices, especially for natural gas and the already referenced planned turnaround during the second quarter. The outlook beyond 2023, however, is robust as we expect to realize significant EG earnings and cash flow improvement in 2024 on the back of an increase in our global LNG price exposure.

對於 2023 年，我們預計股票收入和 EBITDA 將下降，這主要是由於假設大宗商品價格大幅下跌，尤其是天然氣，以及第二季度已經提到的計劃扭虧為盈。然而，2023 年以後的前景依然強勁，因為我們預計在全球液化天然氣價格敞口增加的背景下，我們預計 2024 年 EG 收益和現金流量將顯著改善。

A way of background, in addition to our 64% interest in the operated Alba gas condensate field, which produced approximately 60,000 oil equivalent barrels per day on a net basis in 2022. We also have a 56% interest in equity accounted 3.7 MTPA baseload LNG facility. This LNG facility currently processes equity gas from our operated Alba field that is sold on a legacy Henry Hub link contract and third-party [oil and gas] volumes on a total plus profit sharing basis. The Alba-Henry Hub link contract expires at the end of 2023.

作為背景，除了我們在運營的 Alba 凝析油田中擁有 64% 的權益外，該油田在 2022 年每天淨產量約為 60,000 桶油當量。我們還擁有 56% 的權益，佔 3.7 MTPA 基本負荷液化天然氣設施。該液化天然氣設施目前處理我們運營的 Alba 油田的權益氣體，這些氣體根據遺留的 Henry Hub 鏈接合同和第三方 [石油和天然氣] 數量在總計加利潤分享的基礎上出售。 Alba-Henry Hub 鏈接合同將於 2023 年底到期。

While we're still working through contractual and commercial details, the bottom line is that beginning January 1, 2024, Alba source LNG will no longer be sold at a Henry Hub linkage. It will be sold into the global LNG market which is expected to drive a significant financial uplift for our company given the material arbitrage between Henry Hub and global LNG pricing.

雖然我們仍在研究合同和商業細節，但最重要的是，從 2024 年 1 月 1 日開始，Alba 來源的液化天然氣將不再通過 Henry Hub 鏈接進行銷售。鑑於 Henry Hub 與全球液化天然氣定價之間的重大套利，它將被出售到全球液化天然氣市場，預計這將為我們公司帶來顯著的財務提升。

More specifically, at pricing generally consistent with the forward curve or $20 per MMBtu TTF, we're positioned to realize an approximate $500 million EBITDA uplift in comparison to 2023. As there is a wide range of potential global LNG price outcomes in 2024, we've also provided a high price sensitivity to help you better appreciate the leverage we'll have in 2024 to global LNG prices.

更具體地說，按照與遠期曲線基本一致的定價或每 MMBtu TTF 20 美元，與 2023 年相比，我們有望實現約 5 億美元的 EBITDA 增長。由於 2024 年全球 LNG 價格的潛在結果範圍廣泛，我們還提供了高價格敏感性，以幫助您更好地了解我們在 2024 年對全球液化天然氣價格的影響。

Assuming an upside case of $40 per MMBtu TTF in 2024 or a price consistent with the average of the trailing 12 months, the potential EBITDA uplift could be in excess of $1 billion. And beyond the significant financial uplift expected in 2024, we remain equally focused on further maximizing the long-term value of our unique EG gas assets by leveraging available haulage through EG LNG.

假設 2024 年每 MMBtu TTF 上漲 40 美元或價格與過去 12 個月的平均值一致，則潛在的 EBITDA 提升可能超過 10 億美元。除了 2024 年預期的顯著財務增長外，我們同樣專注於通過利用 EG LNG 的可用運輸來進一步最大化我們獨特的 EG 天然氣資產的長期價值。

This world-class infrastructure is well positioned in 1 of the most gas prone areas of West Africa and is a natural aggregation point to monetize both indigenous EG gas as well as discovered undeveloped cross-border opportunities.

這個世界級的基礎設施位於西非最容易出現天然氣的地區之一，是一個天然的聚集點，可以將本土 EG 天然氣和已發現的未開發跨境機會貨幣化。

In summary, for years now, I've reiterated my view that for our company and for our sector to attract increased investor sponsorship, we must deliver financial performance competitive with other investment alternatives in the market. as measured by corporate returns, free cash flow generation and the return of capital. More S&P, less E&P.

總而言之，多年來，我一直重申我的觀點，即為了我們公司和我們的行業吸引更多的投資者贊助，我們必須提供與市場上其他投資選擇具有競爭力的財務業績。通過企業回報、自由現金流產生和資本回報來衡量。更多標準普爾，更少勘探普爾。

We've delivered exactly that type of performance over the last 2 years and not just competitive, but at the very top. And as I said before, our challenge now is to prove that our results are sustainable, quarter in, quarter out, year-end and year out. We believe they are. We're up for the challenge and I believe our outlook is as strong as it has ever been.

我們在過去 2 年中提供了完全相同的性能，不僅具有競爭力，而且處於最高水平。正如我之前所說，我們現在面臨的挑戰是證明我們的結果是可持續的，無論是季度、季度、年末還是年末。我們相信他們是。我們準備好迎接挑戰，我相信我們的前景一如既往地強勁。

Our compelling investment case is simple. We offer a unique and differentiated return of capital framework that provides shareholders first call on cash flow and protect distributions from capital inflation. For 2023, we're providing clear visibility to double-digit shareholder distribution yield. We have an established track record of market-leading free cash flow yield and shareholder distributions at an attractive valuation and offer investors a free cash flow and return of capital profile that competes with any sector and company in the S&P 500 across a wide range of commodity prices.

我們引人注目的投資案例很簡單。我們提供獨特且差異化的資本回報框架，讓股東優先獲得現金流並保護分配免受資本膨脹的影響。對於 2023 年，我們將提供兩位數的股東分配收益率的清晰可見性。我們以具有吸引力的估值在市場領先的自由現金流收益率和股東分配方面擁有良好的記錄，並為投資者提供自由現金流和資本回報率，可與標準普爾 500 指數中的任何行業和公司在廣泛的商品領域競爭價格。

We have delivered per share growth across all the metrics that matter via a consistent share repurchase program that leads our peers in addition to a durable and competitive base dividend. We believe this peer-leading financial delivery is sustainable, underpinned by our high-quality U.S. unconventional portfolio with over a decade of high return inventory and a track record of sector-leading capital efficiency, recently strengthened by the Ensign acquisition.

我們通過一致的股票回購計劃實現了所有重要指標的每股增長，該計劃領先於我們的同行，此外還有持久且有競爭力的基本股息。我們相信這種同行領先的金融交付是可持續的，這得益於我們高質量的美國非常規投資組合，這些投資組合擁有十多年的高回報庫存和行業領先的資本效率記錄，最近通過收購 Ensign 得到加強。

Our portfolio provides commodity leverage with strong oil weighting, coupled with a unique and increasing exposure to global LNG prices that will drive material financial uplift in 2024 and beyond, all underpinned by an investment-grade balance sheet. And finally, we're delivering these results to help meet global oil and gas demand while prioritizing all elements of our ESG performance.

我們的投資組合提供商品槓桿和強大的石油權重，加上對全球液化天然氣價格的獨特且不斷增加的敞口，這將推動 2024 年及以後的重大財務增長，所有這些都以投資級資產負債表為基礎。最後，我們提供這些結果以幫助滿足全球石油和天然氣需求，同時優先考慮我們 ESG 績效的所有要素。

To close, I want to again reiterate how proud I am of the way we position our company. We are results driven, but it is also about how we deliver those results, staying true to our core values and responsibly delivering the oil and gas the world needs. The oil and gas that is critical to furthering global economic progress, defending U.S. energy security, (inaudible) billions out of energy poverty and protecting the standard of living, we have all come to enjoy.

最後，我想再次重申我對我們定位公司的方式感到自豪。我們以結果為導向，但這也關係到我們如何實現這些結果，忠於我們的核心價值觀，並負責任地提供世界所需的石油和天然氣。石油和天然氣對促進全球經濟進步、捍衛美國能源安全、（聽不清）數十億人擺脫能源貧困和保護生活水平至關重要，我們都可以享用。

With that, we can open the line for Q&A.

這樣，我們就可以打開問答熱線了。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Jeanine Wai。

Our first question, maybe just starting with the '23 outlook for Lee or Mike, 1 of the things that really stood out to us and the outlook was actually the number of Eagle Ford wells to sales in the plan which was decently below our forecast, and it's about, I think, 20% lower year-on-year on an adjusted basis, if you just assume maintenance mode and then you add the 40 [Ensign] wells to the number of wells you did last year.

我們的第一個問題，也許只是從 Lee 或 Mike 的 23 年前景開始，對我們來說真正突出的事情之一和前景實際上是計劃中 Eagle Ford 油井的銷售數量，這大大低於我們的預測，我認為，如果您只是假設維護模式，然後將 40 口 [Ensign] 井添加到去年的井數中，我認為在調整後的基礎上同比下降 20%。

And we saw your comments about higher aggregate year-over-year well productivity in the Eagle Ford in '23. And we were just wondering if you could share any further details about the implied improved capital efficiency in the Eagle Ford because it seems to be pretty meaningful. So for example, if the Eagle Ford -- is the Eagle Ford actually in maintenance mode this year on an adjusted basis and are there any other factors out there that would be affecting the wells this year to sales, whether it be the mix, the working interest or anything else?

我們看到了您對 23 年 Eagle Ford 的井產量同比提高的評論。我們只是想知道您是否可以分享有關 Eagle Ford 隱含的資本效率提高的更多詳細信息，因為它似乎非常有意義。因此，例如，如果 Eagle Ford - Eagle Ford 今年實際上是否處於調整後的維護模式，是否有任何其他因素會影響今年的油井銷售，無論是組合，還是工作興趣還是其他？

Jeanine, it's Mike here. I'll take that call. So to maybe answer part of your question. Yes, I think it is safe to assume that the Eagle Ford is in maintenance mode -- all maintenance mode this year. And I think it's also correct. You're also correct in the legacy position, we are holding volumes flat on a lower well to sales count in 2023, which is obviously a positive thing.

珍妮，我是邁克。我會接那個電話。所以也許可以回答你的部分問題。是的，我認為 Eagle Ford 處於維修模式是安全的——今年所有維修模式。我認為這也是正確的。你在傳統立場上也是正確的，我們將在 2023 年的銷量與銷量持平，這顯然是一件積極的事情。

A couple of elements that I would say go into that. The first one being the timing of when we bring wells online in the year. We are going to be bringing close to 60% of our legacy wells to sales in the first half of '23. And that definitely helps the annualized volumes.

我想說的是其中的幾個要素。第一個是我們在一年中什麼時候讓油井上線的時間。我們將在 23 年上半年將近 60% 的遺留油井用於銷售。這肯定有助於年化銷量。

I think the second element and probably the more important one from my perspective is well productivity and (inaudible) into well productivity. But one of the things that the team has been doing is really continuing to optimize our completion design. That has resulted in an uplift in our well performance. And you see that factored into this year's business plan and the ultimate and volumetric outlook.

我認為第二個要素，從我的角度來看可能是更重要的一個要素是井生產力和（聽不清）井生產力。但是團隊一直在做的一件事是真正繼續優化我們的完井設計。這導致我們的良好表現得到提升。您會看到，這已納入今年的業務計劃以及最終和數量展望中。

So we were already setting up for a strong year in Eagle Ford with the legacy business. I think the addition of the Ensign acreage only reinforces our position, as Pat mentioned. I think we're particularly encouraged with the performance of the first 9 wells from the 2 pads that we brought online in the condensate window, very strong productivity, top decile and oil, really fully consistent with our belief that this is some of the highest capital efficiency inventory in the Eagle Ford. And that only adds to what was already a highly capital-efficient business. So very, very excited about the opportunities that the acquisition brings this year and even beyond.

因此，我們已經在 Eagle Ford 的傳統業務中為強勁的一年做好了準備。正如 Pat 提到的，我認為增加 Ensign 面積只會加強我們的地位。我認為我們對我們在凝析油窗口中聯機的 2 個平台的前 9 口井的表現感到特別鼓舞，非常強大的生產力，最高的十分位數和石油，完全符合我們的信念，即這是最高的一些Eagle Ford 的資本效率清單。而這只會增加本已具有高資本效率的業務。對此次收購在今年乃至以後帶來的機遇感到非常非常興奮。

Okay. Great. Same fraction on the small is always a good thing. Maybe Dane, turning to you on just the shareholder returns versus debt pay down, you're committed to returning at least 40% as CFO this year. The balance sheet is in a really comfortable place. At least at Barclays, our house forecast calls were meaningfully higher crude prices than $80 this year.

好的。偉大的。同樣的分數就小總是好事。也許戴恩，僅就股東回報與債務償還的關係向你求助，你承諾今年作為首席財務官的回報率至少為 40%。資產負債表處於一個非常舒適的位置。至少在巴克萊銀行，我們的房屋預測電話今年原油價格明顯高於 80 美元。

And assuming our prices show up, how should we think about the allocation of capital in this scenario between buybacks and early debt pay down? We heard your prepared remarks where you talked about your track record is to actually exceed the original target percent return. In the past, you've given kind of different percent targets at different commodity prices. But this time around, you've got the new Ensign debt in the mix.

假設我們的價格出現上漲，在這種情況下，我們應該如何考慮回購和提前償還債務之間的資本分配？我們聽到你準備好的言論，你談到你的業績記錄實際上超過了最初的目標百分比回報率。過去，你在不同的商品價格下給出了不同的百分比目標。但這一次，你有新的 Ensign 債務。

And so at what point do you really start chipping away at the Ensign debt? Is it as simple as if oil is $85 or $90, you start going after that more? Can you provide any more color?

那麼你什麼時候真正開始削減少尉的債務呢？是不是就像油價是 85 美元或 90 美元一樣簡單，你開始追求更多？你能提供更多顏色嗎？

Yes, definitely. Let me kind of go back to our return on capital commitment framework for a second, and then I'll work my way to how we're thinking about paying down acquisition debt and timing of that. One, as I stated, we're firmly committed to our particular capital framework, a minimum of 40% of operating cash flow to shareholders as long as WTI is about $60 and obviously, we're well above that right now.

當然是。讓我稍微回到我們的資本承諾框架回報率，然後我將按照我的方式討論我們如何考慮償還收購債務和償還債務的時間。第一，正如我所說，我們堅定地致力於我們特定的資本框架，只要 WTI 約為 60 美元，我們就至少有 40% 的運營現金流流向股東，顯然，我們現在遠遠高於這一水平。

In '22, we significantly exceeded that. We hit 55%, $3 billion back to shareholders, $2.8 billion of that was share repurchases. So significant return to -- in the form of share repurchases, and that's how we're thinking about 2023 as well.

在 22 年，我們大大超過了這一點。我們達到了 55%，向股東返還了 30 億美元，其中 28 億美元用於股票回購。如此顯著的回報——以股票回購的形式，這也是我們對 2023 年的看法。

The Ensign acquisition really enhances our shareholder return capability. It added about 20% both our pre-acquisition operating cash flow and our shareholder distribution capacity. So another way to think about that is a 40% minimum shareholder return post-Ensign would have equaled 50% pre-Ensign.

收購 Ensign 確實提高了我們的股東回報能力。它使我們收購前的經營現金流和股東分配能力增加了約 20%。因此，另一種思考方式是，在 Ensign 之後 40% 的最低股東回報率將等於 50% 在 Ensign 之前。

So at a minimum, we're pretty close to what we actually delivered last year, but we like having a track record not only of meeting our goal, meeting our minimum target but exceeding it, and that's what we've done so far and we intend to continue that. Too soon to give you more guidance to model on that, but that's our biased.

所以至少，我們非常接近我們去年實際交付的成果，但我們希望擁有不僅達到我們的目標，達到我們的最低目標而且超過它的記錄，這就是我們迄今為止所做的，我們打算繼續這樣做。為您提供更多的模型指導還為時過早，但這是我們的偏見。

With respect to how do we pay back acquisition debt in the context of that return framework, I think we really have the capacity to do both, even at today's commodity price, as I look at this, I see the capability to not only meet and exceed our shareholder return goals but to start to meaningfully chip away at the acquisition debt and get that interest expense and just that gross debt out of the system.

關於我們如何在該回報框架的背景下償還收購債務，我認為我們確實有能力做到這兩點，即使以今天的商品價格計算，在我看來，我看到的能力不僅是滿足和超過我們的股東回報目標，但開始有意義地削減收購債務，並將利息支出和總債務從系統中剔除。

From your lips to God's ears on higher oil price, we have a tremendous amount of leverage to strong commodity prices, especially oil, and that would just increase our return capacity. You did note our balance sheet is really strong. Rating agencies have given us positive feedback around that.

從您口中聽到的關於油價上漲的消息，我們對商品價格（尤其是石油）的堅挺商品價格擁有巨大的槓桿作用，而這只會增加我們的回報能力。您確實注意到我們的資產負債表非常強勁。評級機構就此給了我們積極的反饋。

So we're not in a mad rush to delever. But my base case is to get that taken down at $1.5 billion 2-year term loan paid off within that window. And we can prepay it without penalty so we can just start kind of slicing chunks off as we go through. And I think we'll probably just assess that periodically as we go through the year based on how our cash generation is.

因此，我們並不急於去槓桿化。但我的基本情況是在那個窗口內還清 15 億美元的 2 年期定期貸款。而且我們可以在沒有罰款的情況下預付它，這樣我們就可以在我們通過的時候開始切塊。而且我認為我們可能會根據我們的現金生成情況定期評估這一年。

But once again, we stated our primary goal -- our #1 goal is return to shareholders, and that will not take a back seat to paying down the debt. While I'm here, let me just talk a second about the flexibility we have in our capital structure. I noted in my prepared comments, we have $200 million of high coupon legacy USX debt it's going to be -- it's like 8.5% to 9% coupon. So it'd be really nice to get that out of the system. It's not a big quantum, so we're just going to pay that off of cash on hand.

但我們再次聲明了我們的主要目標——我們的第一目標是回報股東，而這不會讓位於償還債務。當我在這裡時，讓我談談我們在資本結構中的靈活性。我在準備好的評論中指出，我們有 2 億美元的高票息遺留 USX 債務——它的息票率為 8.5% 至 9%。因此，將其從系統中刪除真的很棒。這不是一個大數目，所以我們只需要用手頭的現金支付。

Aside from that, and the acquisition term loan that I already referenced, the only other maturities we have between now and 2027 are in aggregate $1 billion in tax exempt bonds that mature somewhat relatably over '23, '24 and '26. And under that tax exempt bond arrangement, we can refinance fees, as they come due in any tenor all the way out to 2037. So a ton of flexibility there.

除此之外，以及我已經提到的收購定期貸款，從現在到 2027 年，我們僅有的其他期限是總計 10 億美元的免稅債券，這些債券在 23 年、24 年和 26 年期間相對成熟。根據免稅債券安排，我們可以為費用再融資，因為它們在任何期限內到期，一直到 2037 年。所以那裡有很大的靈活性。

They're very interest rate advantaged to taxable debt. Even in this crazy interest rate environment, they're quite a bit advantaged and they -- things normalize as we go forward here a little bit from an interest rate perspective, they're -- the coupon on this 1 we're retiring now is 2%, and that's kind of apart from (inaudible) companies. So we really like that flexibility.

他們的利率非常有利於應稅債務。即使在這種瘋狂的利率環境下，他們也有相當大的優勢，而且他們——從利率的角度來看，隨著我們向前推進，事情正常化了，他們——我們現在退休的這個 1 的息票是 2%，這與（聽不清）公司有點不同。所以我們真的很喜歡這種靈活性。

And the last thing I'll say is we extended recently our $2.5 billion credit facility out to July of 2027. So ton of flexibility there. Bottom line, shareholder returns, first; pay back debt, second. We have capacity to do both. I'm not going to give you a break line formula how we're thinking about it. But that's our commitment. And that's how we're going to proceed.

我最後要說的是，我們最近將 25 億美元的信貸額度延長至 2027 年 7 月。那裡有很大的靈活性。底線，股東回報第一；償還債務，第二。我們有能力做到這兩點。我不會給你一個折線公式，我們是如何考慮的。但這是我們的承諾。這就是我們將要進行的方式。

Next question comes from Neal Dingmann, Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

I'll leave my first question for you or Dane, on capital allocation, specifically. I definitely appreciate and really support the buyback focus. I'm just curious, have you all changed the way you think about your stock dividend or your stock valuation as the savers the dividend payout. Just wondering, I mean, you all think about some mid-cycle prices used when looking at the metrics? Or is there any other details that you or Dane could provide on kind of how you're looking at the buyback versus the div?

我會把我的第一個問題留給你或 Dane，特別是關於資本配置的問題。我非常感謝並真正支持回購重點。我只是好奇，你們是否都改變了對股票股息或股票估值的看法，因為它們是股息支付的儲蓄者。只是想知道，我的意思是，你們都考慮過在查看指標時使用的一些週期中期價格嗎？或者您或 Dane 是否可以提供任何其他詳細信息，說明您如何看待回購與 div？

Yes. go ahead, Dane.

是的。去吧，戴恩。

Neal, yes. So from a base dividend perspective, we want that to be competitive and sustainable. And sustainability is kind of the governor there. We look at sort of conservative mid-cycle pricing, maybe a $50 WTI world and trend not get too far of, say, 10% of operating cash flow on that base dividend. And so that's a bit of a governor.

尼爾，是的。因此，從基本股息的角度來看，我們希望它具有競爭力和可持續性。可持續性是那裡的州長。我們著眼於某種保守的周期中期定價，也許是 50 美元的 WTI 世界，趨勢不會太遠，比如說，該基本股息佔運營現金流的 10%。所以這有點像州長。

Now we have the synergy with the share repurchases that surprisingly -- is surprising how quickly you can buy back enough stock to pay for another (inaudible) increase, and we'll definitely be in that window again sometime this year. So that's how we think about the dividend, share repurchases, obviously, organic lion's share of our return of capital program, and I would expect that to continue as long as our free cash flow yield is indicative of a really efficient way to buy back stock.

現在，我們與股票回購產生了令人驚訝的協同作用——令人驚訝的是，你能以多快的速度回購足夠的股票來支付另一次（聽不見的）增長，我們肯定會在今年的某個時候再次進入那個窗口。這就是我們對股息、股票回購的看法，顯然，我們資本回報計劃的有機大部分份額，我希望只要我們的自由現金流收益率表明回購股票的真正有效方式，這種情況就會持續下去.

Yes. I think, Neal, if you look at the aggregate efficiency of our share repurchase program, it really has been a differentiating, I think, feature for us since we started that program back in October of '21. I mean to be talking about a 20% -- over 20% reduction in shares outstanding and the dramatic impact that, that has on per share metrics it's pretty notable. And as Dave noted, not only is that a very efficient mechanism for getting that cash back to shareholders. But the synergy effect that it has with the base dividend is also pretty remarkable. So that -- those mechanisms, we believe, are still the case to be as we look ahead into 2023.

是的。我認為，尼爾，如果你看看我們股票回購計劃的總體效率，我認為，自從我們在 21 年 10 月啟動該計劃以來，它確實是一個與眾不同的特徵。我的意思是談論 20% - 超過 20% 的流通股減少以及對每股指標的巨大影響，這是非常顯著的。正如戴夫指出的那樣，這不僅是一種將現金返還給股東的非常有效的機制。但它與基本紅利的協同效應也非常顯著。因此，我們相信，在我們展望 2023 年時，這些機制仍然如此。

Yes, I love that per share growth, it really stands out. And then my second question is just on cost, specifically. Incremental cost expectations for the next few quarters seem to be now the most topical once again. Just curious on how volatile you all believe these -- that caused let's say, for the next 2, 3, maybe even 4 quarters will continue to be.

是的，我喜歡每股增長，它真的很突出。然後我的第二個問題只是關於成本，特別是。未來幾個季度的增量成本預期現在似乎再次成為最熱門的話題。只是好奇你們都相信這些有多大的波動 - 比如說，在接下來的 2、3，甚至 4 個季度中，這將繼續存在。

And can you continue? It seems like you've done a pretty good job in the past, locking in a good piece of those. I know when talking to Mike and the team. So I'm just wondering when you guys look at that, how you're thinking about costs here for the -- call it, the near-term and locking in?

你能繼續嗎？看起來你過去做得很好，鎖定了其中的一部分。我在與邁克和團隊交談時知道。所以我只是想知道你們什麼時候看這個，你們是如何考慮這裡的成本的——稱之為短期和鎖定？

Yes. Maybe I'll just provide a couple of comments and then hand over to Mike to perhaps get into some of the details of how we're really working to mitigate those pressures in time. But when you think about cost overall, we have to bear in mind that 2022 was kind of a tale of 2 halves of the year.

是的。也許我只會提供一些意見，然後交給邁克，讓他了解我們如何真正努力及時減輕這些壓力的一些細節。但是當你考慮整體成本時，我們必須記住，2022 年就像是一年的兩個半年。

The first half of the year was -- certainly didn't see the level of inflationary impacts that we saw in the second half. So some of the pressure that I think we're feeling not only the company but as a sector, in 2023 is the fact that we have the full year impact of those inflationary pressures.

今年上半年 - 當然沒有看到我們在下半年看到的通脹影響水平。因此，我認為我們在 2023 年不僅感受到公司而且作為一個行業感受到的一些壓力是我們受到這些通脹壓力的全年影響。

And our $1.9 billion to $2 billion number fully contemplates that full year impact of those inflationary pressures. I think the team has done an outstanding job being very disciplined about how we lock in both capacity and costs from our service providers. And maybe I'll let Mike just expand a little bit on that point.

我們 19 億至 20 億美元的數字充分考慮了這些通脹壓力的全年影響。我認為該團隊在我們如何鎖定服務提供商的容量和成本方面做得非常出色。或許我會讓 Mike 在這一點上稍微擴展一下。

Yes. Thanks, Lee. It's Mike here, Neal. Maybe a couple of things. How I'd maybe characterize '23. At a high level, we've kind of assumed similar service cost about fourth quarter environment. So that's probably a good starting point for you. And maybe consistent with what we've highlighted previously, and we touched on this a little bit. We're assuming 10% to 15% inflation that is built into our 2023 budget as relative to 2022.

是的。謝謝，李。我是邁克，尼爾。也許有幾件事。我可能如何描述'23。在高層次上，我們假設第四季度環境的服務成本類似。所以這對你來說可能是一個很好的起點。也許與我們之前強調的內容一致，我們稍微談到了這一點。我們假設 2023 年預算中的通貨膨脹率相對於 2022 年為 10% 至 15%。

As we mentioned in the past, we've been working this one hard. Really, our objective was to really baseload the maintenance program kind of really try to minimize the need for (inaudible). A lot of benefits in doing that from safety, execution and commercial perspective. We've taken what I maybe describe as a disciplined but thoughtful approach.

正如我們過去提到的，我們一直在努力解決這個問題。確實，我們的目標是真正對維護程序進行基本加載，以盡量減少對（聽不清）的需求。從安全、執行和商業角度來看，這樣做有很多好處。我們採取了我可能稱之為有紀律但深思熟慮的方法。

Our priority has been to really protect the execution side of the business and try to get access to the same high-quality providers and equipment that we were using in '22, and I can tell you we've been successful there. And the majority of the folks that we're working with in '23 are the same folks that we were working with in '22.

我們的首要任務是真正保護業務的執行方面，並嘗試獲得我們在 22 世紀使用的相同高質量供應商和設備，我可以告訴你我們在這方面取得了成功。與我們在 23 年合作的大多數人與我們在 22 年合作的人是同一個人。

As I think about the year -- for the first half of the year, majority of our reg pressure pumping, sand, (inaudible) all fully secured. Most of the price is locked in. There's a little bit of open pricing, but not a lot where we can't track the index link that to the pricing mechanisms.

當我想到這一年時——在今年上半年，我們的大部分 reg 壓力泵、沙子、（聽不清）都完全安全。大部分價格都被鎖定了。有一點公開定價，但在我們無法追踪與定價機制的索引鏈接的地方並不多。

And then maybe for the second half of the year, that's really been a little bit more patient. That feels like the right calls just given the macro volatility at the moment. We feel good about our ability to access high-quality providers and equipment, but we've maybe been a little bit more thoughtful in terms of how much prices we lock in.

然後也許在今年下半年，這真的有點耐心。鑑於目前的宏觀波動，這感覺就像是正確的選擇。我們對獲得高質量供應商和設備的能力感到滿意，但在鎖定價格方面我們可能考慮得更周到一些。

Potentially, that could work to our advantage later in the year, particularly if you see some of this commodity price weakness that we seen recently, if that persists, especially on the natural gas side of the business. That could potentially lead to less drilling and completion activity, particularly in some of those higher cost and gas (inaudible).

這可能會在今年晚些時候對我們有利，特別是如果你看到我們最近看到的一些大宗商品價格疲軟，如果這種情況持續存在，尤其是在天然氣業務方面。這可能會導致鑽井和完井活動減少，特別是在一些成本和天然氣較高的地區（聽不清）。

Yes. And maybe one just kind of closing comment as well, Neal. I know we spend a lot of time talking about inflationary pressures on the CapEx side of our business. I don't want us to forget that our operating expenses are also a critical element of our business model. And if you look at our guidance, particularly for the U.S. business this year, the U.S. unit production expense is actually going down by circa 10% year-over-year. A lot -- obviously, a lot of great work by the team, but also it reflects some of the implicit efficiency that we're gaining through the scale and the performance from the Ensign acquisition. So I just don't want to focus all of our time just on CapEx, OpEx is still a very key element of delivery of our financial metrics. And so I just wanted to highlight that before we left this question.

是的。也許還有一種結束評論，Neal。我知道我們花了很多時間討論我們業務資本支出方面的通脹壓力。我不想讓我們忘記我們的運營費用也是我們商業模式的一個關鍵要素。如果你看看我們的指導，尤其是今年美國業務，美國的單位生產費用實際上同比下降了大約 10%。很多 - 顯然，團隊做了很多出色的工作，但也反映了我們通過收購 Ensign 的規模和績效獲得的一些隱性效率。所以我只是不想把我們所有的時間都集中在資本支出上，運營支出仍然是我們財務指標交付的一個非常關鍵的因素。所以我只想在我們離開這個問題之前強調這一點。

The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

So Lee, tremendous acquisition in the Eagle Ford. My question is whether you have line of sight or any thoughts about how you address the balance of the portfolio. And let me frame my question like this. On Slide 20, you're showing about a [13-year] inventory in the Lower 48, but you're also suggesting the Eagle Ford today is more than 15 years, and that's about half of production. So I guess I'm coming to a conclusion that the rest of the portfolio is probably sub-10. So I'm wondering if you could give us some thoughts as to whether that sounds reasonable, maybe break it down by asset, but how you think about extending the asset life on those other parts of the portfolio? And I've got a follow-up, please.

So Lee 在 Eagle Ford 進行了巨大的收購。我的問題是你是否有關於如何處理投資組合平衡的視線或任何想法。讓我這樣構思我的問題。在幻燈片 20 上，你展示了美國本土 48 個地區的 [13 年] 庫存，但你也暗示今天的 Eagle Ford 已經超過 15 年，這大約是產量的一半。所以我想我得出的結論是投資組合的其餘部分可能低於 10。所以我想知道你是否可以給我們一些想法，看看這聽起來是否合理，也許可以按資產細分，但你如何考慮延長投資組合其他部分的資產壽命？我有後續行動，請。

Yes. No. Thank you, Doug. Well, first of all, I appreciate you pointing out the inventory life because I do think this is an important topic. This is third-party data. This is -- that we showed in the pack. It's also kind of sub-$50 WTI breakeven data. So you just have to keep in mind that this is a very specific slice of inventory life. To me, one of the key takeaways is that we're clustered in with 4 or 5 other companies that are really sitting in that 12- to 15-year inventory life. And so we're in a very good ZIP code there.

是的。不，謝謝你，道格。嗯，首先，我感謝你指出庫存壽命，因為我認為這是一個重要的話題。這是第三方數據。這是——我們在包裝中展示的。這也是低於 50 美元的 WTI 盈虧平衡數據。所以你只需要記住，這是庫存壽命的一個非常具體的部分。對我來說，一個關鍵的收穫是我們與其他 4 到 5 家真正處於 12 到 15 年庫存壽命中的公司聚集在一起。所以我們在那裡的郵政編碼非常好。

So I want to start with that as a premise. We're not disadvantaged in any form or fashion when it comes to quality inventory like with exceptionally low breakeven getting beyond that and talking about inventory life for the portfolio, but also at a basin level.

所以我想以此為前提開始。在質量庫存方面，我們並沒有以任何形式或方式處於劣勢，比如盈虧平衡點極低，超出了這一點，並談論了投資組合的庫存壽命，但也在盆地層面。

You're right in the sense that Ensign has been very accretive specifically to the Eagle Ford. But as you know, capital allocation and consumption rates ultimately sits the inventory life calculation, that's why we tend to look at it at a portfolio level as opposed to a basin level. But you can take comfort in the fact that when we look across our basins, in aggregate, they are all at that kind of 10-year or better inventory life when we look at that from an internal perspective.

從某種意義上說，Ensign 對 Eagle Ford 特別有利。但正如你所知，資本配置和消耗率最終取決於庫存壽命計算，這就是為什麼我們傾向於在投資組合層面而不是流域層面來看待它。但你可以放心，當我們審視我們的盆地時，從內部角度來看，它們總體上都處於那種 10 年或更好的庫存壽命。

We said, well, how do you think about growing that inventory life moving forward. Well, I think right now, we're just wanting to integrate and digest the Ensign acquisition, which, to us, was very much representative of the type of acquisition that makes sense for a company like Marathon, right?

我們說，好吧，你如何看待向前發展的庫存生活。好吧，我想現在，我們只想整合和消化對 Ensign 的收購，對我們來說，這非常代表了對 Marathon 這樣的公司有意義的收購類型，對吧？

If you -- we talked extensively about the criteria we would use to evaluate any acquisition. And it was obviously financial accretion. It was obviously industrial logic. But a big component of that was to look for assets or opportunities that would also have a net positive effect on inventory life. And not just long-dated inventory, but inventory that can compete right now today, and that's exactly what we're seeing from the Ensign acquisition.

如果你 - 我們廣泛討論了我們將用來評估任何收購的標準。這顯然是金融增值。這顯然是工業邏輯。但其中很大一部分是尋找對庫存壽命也有淨積極影響的資產或機會。不僅是長期庫存，還有今天可以競爭的庫存，這正是我們從 Ensign 收購中看到的。

So to the extent that we continue to screen and look at opportunities here in the U.S. And they -- and we find some that meet that criteria. I will take a very hard look at that, Pat and his team are constantly looking at the opportunities within our core basins. But if anything, Ensign has actually raised that bar and raised and elevated that criteria because it was so accretive to the overall enterprise and specifically the Eagle Ford metrics.

因此，就我們繼續篩选和尋找美國這裡的機會而言，他們 - 我們發現了一些符合該標準的機會。我會非常認真地研究一下，Pat 和他的團隊一直在尋找我們核心盆地內的機會。但如果有的話，Ensign 實際上已經提高了那個標準，並提高了這個標準，因為它對整個企業，特別是 Eagle Ford 指標來說是如此的增值。

I appreciate the answer, Lee. I mean, good assets in the hands of great management with a lot of cash and you can kind of see where I'm going with that. So thank you for the answer. My follow-up is kind of a similar question on EG. And you know we've been kind of struggling with this a little bit because I realize that the step change in the 18-year contract is extraordinary.

我很欣賞李的回答。我的意思是，優秀的資產掌握在擁有大量現金的優秀管理層手中，你可以看出我的想法。所以謝謝你的回答。我的後續行動是關於 EG 的類似問題。你知道我們一直在為此苦苦掙扎，因為我意識到 18 年合同的階梯變化是非同尋常的。

The problem we're facing is that on our numbers at least on third-party data, in particular, the $900 million of EBITDA more or less on the production, it looks like it's about $600 million gross going through the plant. That production looks to decline about 70% over the next 5 years, and you don't have any capital associated with the uplift this coming year.

我們面臨的問題是，根據我們的數字，至少是第三方數據，特別是 9 億美元的 EBITDA 或多或少與生產有關，看起來工廠的總收入約為 6 億美元。該產量在未來 5 年內看起來將下降約 70%，而且您沒有任何與來年產量增加相關的資本。

So my question is, how do you maintain -- what are the opportunities that in terms of whether it might require capital or third-party (inaudible) gas to spend capital, which brings questions over what kind of margin you can actually maintain on that. So I guess I'm looking for confirmation. Is that really the decline rate? And how do you backfill it?

所以我的問題是，你如何維持 - 就是否需要資本或第三方（聽不見）氣體來花費資本而言，有哪些機會，這帶來了關於你實際上可以維持什麼樣的保證金的問題.所以我想我正在尋找確認。這真的是下降率嗎？你如何回填它？

Yes. Well, I think the -- first of all, on the decline rate, on the equity Alba gas condensate field, we're kind of 8% to 10% annual decline rate. So that's kind of the decline rate that we would typically experience within that asset. In terms of future opportunities, let me describe it like this.

是的。好吧，我認為 - 首先，關於阿爾巴凝析油田股權的下降率，我們每年的下降率為 8% 到 10%。所以這就是我們通常會在該資產中遇到的下降率。就未來的機會而言，我這樣描述吧。

First of all, as I said in my opening comments, we have this world-class very unique infrastructure sitting in 1 of the most gas prone areas of West Africa. And quite frankly, those molecules will not get monetized unless they probably flow through EG LNG. We are the route to monetization. And we've already demonstrated success in that. If you look at the Alen project, which, as you said, if you will, and others molecule -- a non-equity project. But with that, we were able to participate both from a tolling as well as a percentage of proceeds on the profit sharing side of that.

首先，正如我在開場白中所說，我們擁有這個世界級的非常獨特的基礎設施，位於西非天然氣最豐富的地區之一。坦率地說，這些分子不會被貨幣化，除非它們可能流經 EG LNG。我們是貨幣化的途徑。我們已經在這方面取得了成功。如果你看一下 Alen 項目，正如你所說，如果你願意的話，它和其他分子 - 一個非股權項目。但是這樣一來，我們既可以通過收費，也可以從利潤分享方面的一定比例的收益中參與進來。

Not only that, but when you talk about capital, we had more infrastructure built out on someone else's capital, i.e., the Alen pipeline. And that was obviously critical for the Alen project but it also subsequently now connects us to additional discovered undeveloped gas that we know ultimately will come to market.

不僅如此，當你談論資本時，我們有更多的基礎設施建立在別人的資本上，即艾倫管道。這顯然對艾倫項目至關重要，但它現在也將我們與我們知道最終將投放市場的其他已發現未開發天然氣聯繫起來。

Remember, we're in the Atlantic Basin, where transportation and geographically advantaged to European markets. There is no other monetization route for those molecules. So I have a very high confidence that between third-party opportunities as well as the fact that we continue to assess both on-block Alba and off-block opportunities ourselves. Now there could be some capital requirements there.

請記住，我們位於大西洋盆地，那裡的交通和地理優勢對歐洲市場有利。這些分子沒有其他貨幣化途徑。因此，我非常有信心，在第三方機會以及我們自己繼續評估區塊內 Alba 和區塊外機會這一事實之間。現在那裡可能有一些資本要求。

But for third-party molecules, those are going to come to us, and we're going to be able to participate in the upside, just like we have in the Alen project. So in aggregate, when I think about all of those opportunities, when I think about already demonstrated success at Alen, we have commercial framework that works, and that framework can be replicated. The fact that these molecules have to find a home or they're going to be stranded gas. I have a lot of confidence that we've got a very strong trajectory for EG LNG out to 2030 and beyond.

但是對於第三方分子，它們會來找我們，我們將能夠參與其中，就像我們在 Alen 項目中所做的那樣。因此，總的來說，當我想到所有這些機會時，當我想到已經在艾倫取得成功時，我們擁有可行的商業框架，並且該框架可以復制。事實上，這些分子必須找到一個家，否則它們將成為擱淺的氣體。我非常有信心，到 2030 年及以後，EG LNG 的發展軌跡非常強勁。

The next question comes from Matt Portillo with TPH.

下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

Just a follow-up to Doug's question. Great to see the Texas Delaware making its way into the development program. Just curious if you can give us an update on the delineation plan for this year? What you've learned so far? And how this might impact kind of your inventory views for the Permian kind of moving forward?

只是道格問題的後續行動。很高興看到 Texas Delaware 進入開發計劃。只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹今年的劃分計劃的最新情況？到目前為止你學到了什麼？這會如何影響您對二疊紀向前發展的庫存視圖？

I'll take this one. Matt, this is Pat. Yes, as you said, we just completed 3 wells on our most recent pad. The wells are performing well to date, consistent with our predrill expectations. All 3 wells and achieve at least 1,000 barrels of oil per day on flow back. It's still early. We're still watching the wells. We need some time to look at longer-term performance, but early indications that are good, they're exhibiting high oil cuts, they're showing low water on ratios and a low decline, some positive outcome there.

我要這個。馬特，這是帕特。是的，正如您所說，我們剛剛在最近的油田上完成了 3 口井。這些油井迄今為止表現良好，符合我們的鑽前預期。所有 3 口井每天至少回流 1,000 桶石油。現在還早。我們仍在觀察水井。我們需要一些時間來觀察長期表現，但早期跡象良好，它們顯示出高石油減產，它們顯示出低水比率和低跌幅，那裡有一些積極的結果。

You may recall that we deliberately down-spaced this pad in Woodford and check our spacing development. We collected a lot of fiber data and other day to try and work in the optimal spacing, both vertically and horizontally. The key takeaway so far is that there's no communication we've seen between the Woodford and the Meramec, which gives us strong evidence that we can successfully codevelop those 2 reservoirs without in the period.

您可能還記得我們在 Woodford 故意降低了這個墊子的間距並檢查了我們的間距開發。我們收集了大量纖維數據，前幾天嘗試在垂直和水平方向上以最佳間距工作。到目前為止的關鍵要點是，我們在 Woodford 和 Meramec 之間沒有看到任何通信，這為我們提供了強有力的證據，證明我們可以在此期間成功地共同開發這兩個水庫。

With regard to future development spacing, I'd say early learnings from this pad appear to confirm our original view that optimally will probably go with a 4x4 co-development. -- that will be the most capital-efficient way to develop the acreage.

關於未來的開發間隔，我想說從這個墊子中獲得的早期經驗似乎證實了我們最初的觀點，即最好可能採用 4x4 共同開發。 - 這將是開發種植面積的最具資本效率的方式。

I'll remind you that the previous pad, we had the strongest Woodford oil well and we drilled in that well, continues to just be a really strong well. We now have about 12 wells online across the 55,000 acre position that we have 8 in the Woodford, 4 in the Meramec. Again, very confident in all their performance very high oil productivity, low water ratio and shallow decline. And we think ultimately, this play is going to generate very high returns.

我會提醒你，之前的墊子，我們擁有最強的伍德福德油井，我們在那口井中鑽探，仍然是一口非常強大的井。我們現在在 55,000 英畝的土地上有大約 12 口井在線，我們在 Woodford 有 8 口，在 Meramec 有 4 口。同樣，對他們的所有表現非常有信心非常高的石油生產率、低水比和淺遞減。我們認為最終，這部劇將產生非常高的回報。

As Mike said in his opening remarks, no longer an exploration play fully integrated into the team. It will compete with cap for capital with the rest of the portfolio. That said, we will drill another multi-well pad this year to continue the development, and we'll see how it goes. We'll go from there.

正如邁克在開場白中所說，不再是完全融入球隊的探索打法。它將與投資組合的其餘部分爭奪資本。也就是說，我們今年將鑽另一個多孔平台以繼續開發，我們將拭目以待。我們將從那裡開始。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Subhasish Chandra with Benchmark Company.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自基準公司的 Subhasish Chandra。

Just curious on your gas views. Yesterday, we might have seen a company that targets oil and sees gas as a derivative. And the risk of that strategy, given what's happened in the macro world. I think in your commentary, you are more cautious on gas, at least in Mid-Con, et cetera. But could you talk more specifically to how you might adjust activity at all based on gas prices?

只是好奇你的氣體觀點。昨天，我們可能已經看到一家以石油為目標並將天然氣視為衍生品的公司。考慮到宏觀世界發生的事情，該戰略的風險。我認為在你的評論中，你對天然氣更加謹慎，至少在 Mid-Con 等方面是這樣。但是你能更具體地談談你如何根據汽油價格調整活動嗎？

And secondly, I should -- well, a follow-up -- no follow-up on the Bakken. Bakken is getting gassier, and how you kind of look at that going forward?

其次，我應該 - 好吧，後續行動 - 沒有關於 Bakken 的後續行動。 Bakken 的氣勢越來越大，你如何看待未來的發展？

Yes, Subhasish, this is Lee. Just in terms of gas views, we're not in the business of predicting pricing. We're a price taker. We do have, though, however, a very natural hedge by virtue of our portfolio. I want to keep in mind that our portfolio is about 50% oil, about 50% gas and NGL.

是的，Subhasish，這是李。就天然氣觀點而言，我們不從事預測定價的業務。我們是價格接受者。然而，憑藉我們的投資組合，我們確實擁有非常自然的對沖。我想記住，我們的投資組合大約有 50% 的石油，大約 50% 的天然氣和 NGL。

So even though prices will inevitably exhibit volatility. We've seen that on the gas side, we don't anticipate radical changes within our capital allocation program for this year. Could we see some small optimization here and there, well absolutely. But again, we're not going to try to predict or chase pricing because inherently, we have a very balanced portfolio that gives us a very broad exposure across the whole commodity deck. So we feel very good about that.

因此，即使價格不可避免地會出現波動。我們已經看到，在天然氣方面，我們預計今年的資本配置計劃不會發生根本性變化。我們能不能在這里和那裡看到一些小的優化，當然。但同樣，我們不會試圖預測或追逐定價，因為本質上，我們擁有一個非常平衡的投資組合，這讓我們在整個商品板塊中擁有非常廣泛的風險敞口。所以我們對此感覺很好。

We talked about some of the sensitivities within our portfolio. We still are very leveraged to oil. We like that. We think that, that is -- I'm very constructive on oil now and in the future. And I like the fact that for every dollar change in WTI, that's a $70 million uplift in cash flow for us. So I don't anticipate any major shifts in capital allocation as a result of gas volume.

我們談到了我們投資組合中的一些敏感性。我們對石油的槓桿率仍然很高。我們喜歡這樣。我們認為，那就是——我對現在和未來的石油都非常有建設性。我喜歡這樣一個事實，即 WTI 每變化一美元，我們的現金流就會增加 7000 萬美元。因此，我預計天然氣量不會導致資本配置發生任何重大變化。

On your other question just around the Bakken, obviously, typically, as we have moved into the Hector area, et cetera, we will see some natural variation in GOR. But again, we're driven by profitability. I won't we're fully agnostic to commodities. But again, we're going to be driven by economics.

關於 Bakken 附近的另一個問題，顯然，通常，當我們進入 Hector 地區等時，我們會看到 GOR 的一些自然變化。但同樣，我們受盈利能力的驅動。我不會，我們對商品完全不可知。但同樣，我們將被經濟驅動。

Yes. I think, Subhasish, I'll just chime in as well on the Bakken. What you're seeing there is maybe just the improving gas capture situation in the basin as well and for ourselves. We've progressively each year got better and better and expect that to continue. So there's probably an element of that playing into it as well.

是的。我想，Subhasish，我也會插話 Bakken。你在那裡看到的可能只是盆地和我們自己的氣體捕獲情況正在改善。我們每年都在逐漸變得越來越好，並希望這種情況繼續下去。所以可能也有其中的一個因素在起作用。

Yes. And that's been a conscious investment on our part to improve that gas capture to capture that value in the field as well as obviously the emissions benefits that come with that.

是的。這對我們來說是一項有意識的投資，以改善氣體捕獲以捕獲現場的價值以及隨之而來的排放效益。

The next question comes from Nitin Kumar with Mizuho Securities.

下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Nitin Kumar。

I'll limit myself to 1 question, 1 part question. Can you talk a little bit about how do you see capital allocation amongst your 4 key U.S. resource base going forward? As Jeanine pointed out, you had fewer wells in the Eagle Ford, but you're also doing a few more in the Bakken than we expected for 2023. So just how should we think about the allocation of capital between the 4 plays?

我將限制自己回答 1 個問題，1 個部分問題。你能談談你如何看待未來美國 4 個主要資源基地的資本配置嗎？正如 Jeanine 指出的那樣，您在 Eagle Ford 的油井數量較少，但您在 Bakken 的油井數量也比我們 2023 年的預期多。那麼我們應該如何考慮這 4 個區域之間的資本分配？

Well, maybe I'll say a couple of things, and I'll let maybe Mike fill in some of the details. But -- and this year's capital allocation, about 80% of the capital allocation is flowing to the Eagle Ford and the Bakken. But we also have an uplift year-over-year in allocation to the Permian as well based on the outstanding results that we experienced in 2022. And so that's what we're looking at this year.

好吧，也許我會說幾件事，也許我會讓 Mike 填寫一些細節。但是——在今年的資本配置中，大約 80% 的資本配置流向了 Eagle Ford 和 Bakken。但基於我們在 2022 年取得的出色成果，我們對二疊紀的配置也同比有所增加。這就是我們今年的目標。

I would expect that as we move march forward in time, the Eagle Ford and the Bakken are still going to compete very, very heavily for capital allocation. But there's no doubt that Permian now coupled not only with the Northern Delaware position, but with the Texas Delaware, Woodford, Meramec is going to start stepping up and competing more directly for capital.

我預計，隨著時間的推移，Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 仍將在資本配置方面展開非常非常激烈的競爭。但毫無疑問，二疊紀現在不僅與特拉華州北部的位置相結合，而且與德克薩斯州特拉華州的伍德福德相結合，Meramec 將開始加強並更直接地爭奪資本。

There are obviously some other subtleties within each basin in terms of how the capital allocation is flowing. And maybe I'll let Mike give a little bit of color on specifically what's happening at a basin level.

就資本分配的流動方式而言，每個流域內顯然還有其他一些微妙之處。也許我會讓 Mike 就流域層面發生的具體情況給出一些顏色。

Nitin, It's Mike here. Yes, just a little bit more detail on '23. We provided the reg splits and the wells to sales in the deck. So 9 to 10 rigs in total, that's excluding the JV activity, 4 rigs in the Eagle Ford, and I'll be 1 on the Ensign acreage with 3 in Bakken and then 2.5 in the Permian then 1.5 JV rigs in Oklahoma.

Nitin，我是邁克。是的，關於 '23 的更多細節。我們提供了 reg splits 和水井以在甲板上銷售。所以總共有 9 到 10 個鑽井平台，這不包括合資活動，在 Eagle Ford 有 4 個鑽井平台，我將在 Ensign 面積上有 1 個，在 Bakken 有 3 個，然後在 Permian 有 2.5 個，然後在俄克拉荷馬州有 1.5 個 JV 鑽井平台。

I think Lee mentioned that roughly 80% of the capital is going to Eagle Ford and market Eagle Ford is obviously you know highest capital asset with the addition of Ensign. And maybe a little bit surprised well, maybe not, it was Permian just grabbing the majority of the remaining capital.

我想 Lee 提到大約 80% 的資本將流向 Eagle Ford，市場 Eagle Ford 顯然是你知道的最高資本資產，加上 Ensign。也許有點驚訝好吧，也許不是，二疊紀只是抓住了剩餘資本的大部分。

And really, that's driven by the excellent results that we've had in Permian last year. That asset is now effectively competing for capital against the Eagle Ford and the Bakken, which is no small mean feat, making a strong case for even more capital in 2024. And a couple of elements to that well productivity is a big part of it, seen some very, very strong results there in aggregate.

實際上，這是由我們去年在二疊紀取得的優異成績推動的。該資產現在正在有效地與 Eagle Ford 和 Bakken 爭奪資本，這是一項不小的壯舉，為 2024 年獲得更多資本提供了強有力的理由。生產率是其中很大一部分，在那裡看到了一些非常非常強大的結果。

The 19 wells that we brought online last year averaged IP30s of over 2,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day and a 70% oil cut. Extended production history in the county is looking really good as well. One of the Thunderbird 4H well in Red Hills, that achieved an IP 120 over 2,100 barrels of oil per day.

我們去年投產的 19 口油井的平均 IP30 產量超過 2,200 桶油當量/天，含油量為 70%。該縣的長期生產歷史看起來也非常好。 Red Hills 的 Thunderbird 4H 井中的一口井每天生產超過 2,100 桶石油，達到 IP 120。

And I think you then couple that with the team. We've seen the teams really excelling there. Completion activities, we're probably pumping for over 19 hours a day. I think you can combine all of that together and you see the capital efficiency, a lot to like about 2022 performance (inaudible).

而且我認為您然後將其與團隊結合起來。我們已經看到團隊在那裡非常出色。完成活動，我們可能每天抽水超過 19 個小時。我認為你可以將所有這些結合在一起，你會看到資本效率，非常喜歡 2022 年的表現（聽不清）。

Just (inaudible) great job that the teams have done as well with acreage trades and kind of adding to our average lateral length, it just causes that asset to become even more capital efficient. Yes, that's probably.

只是（聽不清）團隊在種植面積交易和某種程度上增加了我們的平均橫向長度方面做得很好，這只會使該資產變得更具資本效率。是的，這可能是。

Our next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾梅塔。

Just a quick question on capital efficiency. Obviously, you provided the '23 guide here, but are you seeing any signs of real time of the second derivative of inflation improving with diesel coming off, chemicals getting a little bit better. Just talk about what is sticky and what might actually be moving back into your direction?

只是一個關於資本效率的快速問題。顯然，您在這裡提供了 23 年指南，但是您是否看到任何跡象表明隨著柴油的減少、化學品的改善，通貨膨脹的二階導數的實時性有所改善。只是談談什麼是粘性的，什麼實際上可能會回到你的方向？

Well, I think that there's no doubt that the rate of change on inflation is certainly slow. And we -- as Mike said earlier, what we have embedded in this year's budget to $1.9 billion to $2 billion is basically the inflation levels that we saw as we exited 2022.

好吧，我認為毫無疑問，通貨膨脹率的變化肯定是緩慢的。我們——正如邁克早些時候所說，我們在今年的預算中嵌入了 19 億至 20 億美元，基本上是我們在 2022 年結束時看到的通脹水平。

So from our perspective, to the extent that we see inflation and commodities like diesel, et cetera, start to moderate. We would expect that to be basically a tailwind for us relative to not only our capital program, but also obviously our operating cost as well. Mike, I don't know if you want to say anything else on that?

因此，從我們的角度來看，在某種程度上，我們看到通脹和柴油等商品開始放緩。我們預計這對我們來說基本上是一個順風，不僅相對於我們的資本計劃，而且顯然也相對於我們的運營成本。邁克，我不知道你還想說些什麼嗎？

I think -- I mean the other thing probably you look at rig count, broadly speaking, that's definitely flattened off from an activity perspective, that should be helpful as well. I kind of alluded to this in maybe 1 of my previous answers with commodity prices, particularly gas being where they are potentially some of the gas basins, maybe in particular, start to see activity and tailing off and that potentially could lead to a little bit of a weakening in the market as well.

我認為 - 我的意思是，從廣義上講，你可能會看到鑽機數量，從活動的角度來看，這肯定是扁平化的，這也應該有所幫助。我在我之前關於大宗商品價格的回答中可能提到了這一點，特別是天然氣，它們可能是一些天然氣盆地，特別是可能開始看到活動和尾聲，這可能會導致一點點市場疲軟也是如此。

And I'll probably start with rigs, but then there's an ongoing effect on contribution crews and everything else that comes in the oilfield service sector. So I think when -- again, I touched on a few minutes ago when I think about our strategy, our approach to the year in terms of locking in, pretty much most of our prices in the first half of the year and then the flexibility in the second half of the year, I think we feel pretty good about the broad macro situation.

我可能會從鑽井平台開始，但隨後會對貢獻人員和油田服務部門的其他一切產生持續影響。所以我想什麼時候 - 幾分鐘前，當我考慮我們的戰略，我們在鎖定方面的年度方法，今年上半年的幾乎大部分價格以及靈活性時，我都提到了下半年，我認為我們對宏觀宏觀形勢感覺還不錯。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Lee Tillman for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將會議轉回給 Lee Tillman 作閉幕詞。

Well, thank you for your interest in Marathon Oil. I'd like to close by again thanking all of our dedicated employees and contractors for their commitment to safely and responsibly deliver the energy the world needs now more than ever. Thank you very much.

好吧，感謝您對馬拉松石油的興趣。最後，我想再次感謝我們所有敬業的員工和承包商，感謝他們致力於安全、負責任地提供世界現在比以往任何時候都更需要的能源。非常感謝。

This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。