默克召開電話會議,討論其強勁的第三季業績,重點關注 Keytruda 和新產品推出推動的營收成長。該公司正在疫苗、腫瘤學、傳染病和免疫學領域進行策略性投資,以取得長期成功。他們對自己為病人、股東和利害關係人創造價值的能力充滿信心。
默克正在拓展新的治療領域,重點是腫瘤學領域的多元化。該公司對未來的成長機會(尤其是在中國)持樂觀態度,並正在投資其管道和商業活動以推動穩健成長。他們也正在探索肥胖治療領域的機會。
總體而言,默克對其業務發展努力和策略目標仍然充滿信心。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Peter Dannenbaum - IR
Peter Dannenbaum - IR
(technical difficulty) Thank you, Shirley, and good morning, everyone.
(技術難度)謝謝雪莉,大家早安。
Welcome for conference call. Speaking on today's call will be Rob Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Caroline Lichfield, Chief Financial Officer, and Dr. Dean Li, President of Merck Research Labs.
歡迎您參加電話會議。默克公司董事長兼執行長羅布·戴維斯(Rob Davis)、財務長卡羅琳·利奇菲爾德(Caroline Lichfield) 和默克研究實驗室總裁Dean Li 博士將在今天的電話會議上發表演說。
Before we get started, I'd like to point out that we have items in our GAAP results such as acquisition-related charges, restructuring costs and certain other items, and that we have excluded these from our non-GAAP results, a reconciliation in our press release.
在我們開始之前,我想指出,我們的 GAAP 業績中有一些項目,例如收購相關費用、重組成本和某些其他項目,並且我們已將這些項目從我們的非 GAAP 業績中排除,這是對我們的新聞稿。
I will also remind you that some of the statements we make today may be considered forward looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
我還要提醒您,我們今天發表的一些聲明可能被視為 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款含義內的前瞻性聲明。
Such statements are made based of Merck's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties if our underlying assumptions prove uncertain disease. Ma'am. Serialized.
此類聲明是根據默克公司的管理層做出的,如果我們的基本假設證明存在不確定的疾病,則此類聲明將面臨重大風險和不確定性。女士。連載了。
Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward looking at our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2023 10 K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward looking statements made this morning.
實際結果可能與我們的SEC 文件中的前瞻性文件(包括2023 10 K 中的第1A 項)中規定的結果有重大差異,確定可能導致公司的實際結果與任何報告中預測的結果有重大差異的某些風險因素和警示性聲明我們今天早上發表的前瞻性聲明。
Merck undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward looking statements during today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks.
默克公司不承擔在今天的電話會議期間公開更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務,我們的演講者準備好的演講中將附有幻燈片演示。
These slides, along with the earnings release today, prepared remarks and our SEC filings, are all posted to the Investor Relations section of Merck's website. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rob.
這些投影片以及今天發布的收益、準備好的評論和我們向 SEC 提交的文件均發佈在默克網站的投資者關係部分。有了這個,我想把電話轉給羅布。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Peter, and good morning, and thank you for joining today's call and Mark will confront most challenging unmet medical needs with innovative science and differentiated solutions.
謝謝彼得,早上好,感謝您參加今天的電話會議,馬克將透過創新科學和差異化解決方案來應對最具挑戰性的未滿足的醫療需求。
And we're delivering on our key strategic, strong progress we're making across our business, increases the confidence I have achieve long-term success and create sustainable value for both patients and shareholders.
我們正在實現我們在整個業務中取得的關鍵策略和強勁進展,增強了我實現長期成功並為患者和股東創造可持續價值的信心。
We're launching important new products to solve for unmet medical needs, and we have significant commercial potential for advancing novel clinical programs across our pipeline and diversified therapeutic areas and modalities, and we're adding to our internal research efforts through value-creating business development transactions.
我們正在推出重要的新產品來解決未滿足的醫療需求,我們擁有巨大的商業潛力,可以在我們的管道和多元化的治療領域和模式中推進新穎的臨床項目,並且我們正在通過創造價值的業務來增加我們的內部研究工作開發交易。
As a result, Merck is moving toward a future with a much more diversified portfolio.
因此,默克正在走向一個產品組合更加多元化的未來。
Our Phase three pipeline has nearly tripled over the past three-plus years to more than 20 unique assets.
在過去三年多的時間裡,我們的第三期管道幾乎增加了兩倍,達到 20 多個獨特資產。
This will fuel a substantial set and vaccine launches over the next five years, in fact, approximately equal to what we've launched over the past 10 years.
這將推動未來五年內大量疫苗的推出,事實上,大約相當於我們過去 10 年推出的疫苗。
And we believe the majority have blockbuster plus potential.
我們相信大多數都具有重磅炸彈和潛力。
We've improved long-term visibility and are intensely focused on ensuring strong clinical execution across our diversified set of pipeline opportunities and future growth drivers.
我們提高了長期可見性,並高度重視確保在我們多樣化的管道機會和未來成長動力中的強大臨床執行力。
As always, we remain science driven and patient focused as we work to bring these medicines and vaccines to those who need them.
一如既往,我們仍然以科學為導向,以患者為中心,努力將這些藥物和疫苗帶給需要的人。
Turning to our third quarter results.
轉向我們第三季的業績。
Commercial execution is a top priority and focus on delivering in the near term.
商業執行是重中之重,重點是在短期內交付。
The strength of our overall portfolio puts us on track to achieve strong full year growth.
我們整體投資組合的實力使我們有望全年強勁成長。
For the quarter, revenues increased 4% or 7% on a constant currency basis, benefited from increased usage of Keytruda globally, contributions from new launches, including Wind River and cap active and strong growth in our Animal Health business and remain confident in the long term opportunity it represents for patients and for Merck.
本季度,以固定匯率計算,營收成長了4% 或7%,這得益於Keytruda 在全球範圍內的使用量增加,包括風河在內的新產品的貢獻,並限制了我們動物保健業務的活躍和強勁增長,並對長期發展保持信心它代表著患者和默克的術語機會。
As anticipated, results also reflect the decline in garden sales sales year over year.
正如預期的那樣,業績也反映出花園銷售額年減。
Notably, however, we achieved strong double-digit growth for Garda still in almost every major region of China in China.
然而值得注意的是,我們在中國幾乎每個主要地區仍然實現了 Garda 的強勁兩位數成長。
Consistent with the expectations we discussed on our prior earnings, we shipped less to our commercialization partner GFA, and we expect fourth-quarter shipments will be at a similar level to the third quarter.
與我們先前討論的收益預期一致,我們向商業化合作夥伴 GFA 的出貨量有所減少,我們預計第四季度的出貨量將與第三季持平。
Overall channel inventories of Garden, which is directionally encouraging.
花園整體通路庫存,方向性令人鼓舞。
While inventory at GFA remains above historical levels.
而庫存面積仍高於歷史水準。
We are highly focused on this market and are making progress with GRP to increased promotional resources and patient education efforts.
我們高度關注這個市場,並正在透過 GRP 取得進展,以增加促銷資源和病患教育工作。
We expect these efforts to translate to increased patient activation and demand.
我們期望這些努力能夠轉化為患者積極性和需求的增加。
But as we've said, this will take time taking a step back.
但正如我們所說,這需要時間後退。
We're proud of the role that Garda circles playing and helping prevent certain HPV. related.
我們為 Garda 在幫助預防某些 HPV 方面所扮演的角色感到自豪。有關的。
There's a wide range of long-term growth opportunities around the world due to the tremendous need to protect more individuals with less than 10% of the global eligible population vaccinated and may meaningful opportunities to improve vaccination completion rates, generation rates, metadata coverage and access in low and middle-income markets includes in China, where there is an attractive long-term opportunity.
由於迫切需要保護更多個人,而全球合格人口中不到10% 已接種疫苗,因此世界各地存在廣泛的長期增長機會,並且可能存在提高疫苗接種完成率、生成率、元數據覆蓋率和獲取機會的有意義的機會包括中國在內的低收入和中等收入市場,那裡有一個有吸引力的長期機會。
Given this in females yet to be immunized and the potential approval for males next year, we're highly focused on using our scale and strong capabilities to drive education and awareness of the benefits of HPV. vaccination and to reach and protect more patients globally.
鑑於女性尚未接種疫苗以及明年男性可能獲得批准,我們高度重視利用我們的規模和強大的能力來推動 HPV 益處的教育和意識。疫苗接種並覆蓋和保護全球更多患者。
As such, confident in our goal of achieving greater than $11 billion of sales by 2030.
因此,我們對 2030 年實現超過 110 億美元銷售額的目標充滿信心。
Turning to our research efforts, we achieved important clinical and business development milestones this quarter.
談到我們的研究工作,我們本季實現了重要的臨床和業務發展里程碑。
Starting with our clinical advancements in vaccines, we presented positive Phase IIb three results for close Rove, I-Mab, our investigational monoclonal for the prevention of RSV in infants.
從我們在疫苗方面的臨床進展開始,我們為 close Rove、I-Mab 提供了積極的 IIb 期三項結果,這是我們用於預防嬰兒 RSV 的研究性單株抗體。
Based on its differentiated profile and robust clinical data.
基於其差異化的概況和可靠的臨床數據。
We believe this opportunity is underappreciated for moving swiftly to make this important prevention option of best.
我們認為,我們沒有充分認識到這個機會,因為我們迅速採取行動,使這項重要的預防方案成為最佳選擇。
During the 25 26 RSV season, pneumococcus ACIP. voted to expand vaccination recommendations for cap backs have to include adults ages 50 to 64 CapExes effectiveness and protecting against invasive pneumococcal disease to this new cohort of patients.
在 25 26 RSV 季節,肺炎球菌 ACIP。投票擴大疫苗接種建議必須包括 50 至 64 歲成年人的 CapExes 有效性以及對這一新患者群體預防侵襲性肺炎球菌疾病的保護。
And this recommendation reinforces our confidence in its blockbuster commercial potential in oncology in 10 years since Katrina as first US approval.
這項建議增強了我們對其在美國首次批准卡崔娜颶風十年後在腫瘤學領域的巨大商業潛力的信心。
And we remain highly focused on advanced care and maintaining durable leadership in oncology.
我們仍然高度關注先進護理並保持腫瘤學領域的持久領導地位。
It as low.
一樣低。
We presented overall survival and long-term follow-up data for Keytruda and data also were shared for our from our innovative ADCs, underscoring our commitment to building a broad and diverse oncology pipeline and infectious diseases.
我們提供了 Keytruda 的整體存活率和長期追蹤數據,並分享了我們創新 ADC 的數據,強調了我們對建立廣泛且多樣化的腫瘤學管道和傳染病的承諾。
We should Phase two data from our collaboration with Gilead for the combination of once weekly oil as lager beer in treatment experienced adults.
我們應該從與吉利德的合作中獲得第二階段數據,將每週一次的油與啤酒結合起來治療經驗豐富的成年人。
This data represents just a portion of our broad HIV development efforts to further advance the field.
這些數據僅代表我們為進一步推動該領域而進行的廣泛愛滋病毒開發努力的一部分。
In immunology, we shared positive Phase two maintenance data for our investigational TL. one, a candidate to lease a keyboard and ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease that adds to positive prior clinical results.
在免疫學方面,我們分享了我們研究性 TL 的第二階段維持正向數據。一是一位租用鍵盤的候選人,患有潰瘍性結腸炎和克羅恩病,這增加了先前的積極臨床結果。
Both our HIV and immunology programs address patient populations was sick significant remaining unmet need despite available therapies.
我們的愛滋病毒和免疫學計畫都致力於解決儘管有可用療法但仍存在大量未滿足需求的患者群體。
Our investments in these therapeutic areas reflect our belief in the opportunity to deliver additional value to patients are sustainable innovation engine for the long term business development, we continue to leverage our scientific expertise to identify promising therapeutic targets that can further broadened and fortify our plan.
我們在這些治療領域的投資反映了我們相信為患者提供額外價值的機會是長期業務發展的可持續創新引擎,我們將繼續利用我們的科學專業知識來確定有前途的治療目標,從而進一步擴大和加強我們的計劃。
This quarter, we acquired a novel investigational bispecific T-cell engager from hereon for potential applications in both oncology and immunology.
本季度,我們從這裡獲得了一種新型的研究性雙特異性 T 細胞接合器,用於腫瘤學和免疫學的潛在應用。
Campo leading our efforts in each of the high unmet need, and we closed the acquisitions of I bio and D-Link Alcoa business.
Campo 領導我們努力解決每個未滿足的高需求,我們完成了對 I Bio 和 D-Link Alcoa 業務的收購。
In summary, we remain highly focused on strong commercial and operational execution to enable access to our medicines and vaccines.
總之,我們仍然高度關注強大的商業和營運執行力,以便獲得我們的藥物和疫苗。
We're also continuing to make strategic investments that we're confident will lead to important innovations for patients and future growth drivers for our company.
我們也將繼續進行策略性投資,我們相信這些投資將為患者帶來重要的創新,並為我們公司帶來未來的成長動力。
I wanted to again recognize the commitment and efforts of our team across the world.
我想再次認可我們全球團隊的承諾和努力。
So and our continued progress on more confident in our longer-term future today than I was a year ago.
因此,我們今天的持續進步比一年前對我們的長期未來更有信心。
And I believe that Merck is even better positioned to dose patients, shareholders and to all of our stakeholders long into the future.
我相信,默克公司在未來很長一段時間內能夠更好地為病患、股東和我們所有的利害關係人提供劑量。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline.
這樣,我就把電話轉給卡洛琳。
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Rob.
謝謝你,羅布。
Good morning.
早安.
As Rob highlighted, we delivered another strong quarter.
正如羅布所強調的那樣,我們又實現了強勁的季度業績。
The fundamentals of our business remain healthy, fueled by robust global demand for our innovative portfolio.
在全球對我們創新產品組合的強勁需求的推動下,我們業務的基本面保持健康。
This reinforces the conviction we have now science-led strategy and in our outlook for continued growth, we remain confident in our ability to consistently deliver strong results in the short term, while remaining disciplined in leading edge science, which positions us to generate lasting value for patients, customers and shareholders.
這增強了我們現在以科學為主導的策略的信念,並且在我們持續成長的前景中,我們仍然對我們在短期內持續取得強勁成果的能力充滿信心,同時在前沿科學方面保持紀律,這使我們能夠創造持久的價值對病人、顧客和股東。
Now turning to our third quarter results, total Company revenues were 16.7 billion, an increase of 4% or 7%, excluding the impact of foreign exchange.
現在來看看我們第三季的業績,公司總營收為 167 億美元,成長 4% 或 7%,剔除外匯影響。
The following revenue comment from ex-exchange face-to-face Human Health business sustained its momentum with sales increasing 8%, primarily driven by oncology.
以下來自交易所面對面的人類健康業務的收入評論保持了其勢頭,銷售額增長了 8%,這主要是由腫瘤學推動的。
Our Animal Health business also delivered strong performance with sales growth of 11%.
我們的動物保健業務也表現強勁,銷售額成長 11%。
Turning to the performance of our key brands in oncology, supportive care trade and grew 21% to $7.4 billion.
談到我們的主要品牌在腫瘤學、支持性護理貿易方面的表現,成長了 21%,達到 74 億美元。
Global growth was driven by increased uptake from early-stage cancers and continue to add plus global demand for metastatic indication in the US.
全球成長的推動因素是早期癌症的增加,以及美國對轉移適應症的全球需求的持續增加。
Keytruda, great across a broad range of tumor types.
Keytruda,適用於多種腫瘤類型。
In the earliest stage setting, the largest driver was increased teeth in respect to both non-small cell lung cancer.
在最早的階段,對於非小細胞肺癌來說,最大的驅動因素是牙齒的增加。
Key to this market, leadership continues to drive as part of the treatment regimen in the perioperative setting.
這個市場的關鍵是,領導力繼續推動作為圍手術期治療方案的一部分。
This existing leadership position at Atchison therapy in metastatic disease, we saw increased uptake in first-line advanced urothelial cancer based on keynote, a 39 Keytruda plus type SaaS continues.
Atchison 療法在轉移性疾病領域的現有領導地位,我們看到基於主題演講的一線晚期尿路上皮癌的採用率有所增加,39 Keytruda plus 型 SaaS 仍在繼續。
Its leadership in new patient starts outpacing platinum chemotherapy based regimens outside the US, Keytruda growth was driven by increased uptake in earlier stage cancers, including high risk, early-stage triple-negative breast cancer as well as continued demand from patients with MS disease.
Keytruda 在新患者方面的領先地位開始超過美國以外的基於鉑類化療的療法,Keytruda 的增長是由早期癌症(包括高風險、早期三陰性乳腺癌)的吸收增加以及多發性硬化症患者的持續需求推動的。
Inflation related price increases consistent with market in Argentina also contributed to growth.
與阿根廷市場一致的通貨膨脹相關價格上漲也促進了成長。
Lynparza alliance revenue decreased 13%, driven by increased global demand.
受全球需求增加的推動,奧拉帕尼聯盟營收下降 13%。
Lenvima alliance revenue declined 4% due to the timing of shipments last year has more than doubled to $139 million, driven by increased uptake in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma.
Lenvima 聯盟收入下降 4%,原因是去年的發貨時間增加了一倍多,達到 1.39 億美元,這是由於某些先前接受過治療的晚期腎細胞癌患者的使用增加所致。
Indeed in vaccines, data sales sales were $2.3 billion, a decrease of 10%, driven by a decline in China.
事實上,在疫苗方面,數據銷售額為 23 億美元,下降了 10%,受到中國市場下滑的推動。
In the US South benefited from CDC purchasing patterns as well as price and demand outside the US, sales increased by double digit in almost every region, driven by US demand.
在美國南部,受益於 CDC 的採購模式以及美國以外的價格和需求,在美國需求的推動下,幾乎每個地區的銷售額都實現了兩位數成長。
In pneumococcal vaccine bond sales increased 13% to $239 million, driven by ongoing launches in international markets.
在國際市場不斷推出的推動下,肺炎鏈球菌疫苗債券銷售額成長了 13%,達到 2.39 億美元。
We are excited by the recent launch of FactSet, which is off to an encouraging start in cardiovascular for launch.
我們對最近推出的 FactSet 感到興奮,它在心血管領域的推出取得了令人鼓舞的開端。
Window effect continues to gain momentum with global sales of $149 million in the US, we have seen steady adding new patients during the quarter.
窗口效應持續增強,美國的全球銷售額達到 1.49 億美元,我們看到本季新患者的穩定增加。
Approximately 1,700 new patients received a prescription, bringing that total number of new patient prescriptions to more than 3,700 since launch.
大約 1,700 名新患者收到了處方,使自推出以來新患者處方總數超過 3,700 份。
Based on our experience to date, approximately 80% of those patients will receive commercial product given base and the approximate one month time frame to complete and commence therapy.
根據我們迄今為止的經驗,大約 80% 的患者將接受給定基礎的商業產品,並在大約一個月的時間內完成並開始治療。
More than 2,600 new commercial patients have started since launch.
自推出以來,已有超過 2,600 名新的商業患者開始使用。
We are seeing physicians prescribe win with at Morrisons and new physicians prescribe the product.
我們看到莫里森的醫生開出 win 的處方,而新醫生也開出該產品的處方。
Through the end of September, nearly 800 physicians have written at least one prescription with must prescribers coming from either large academic centers or larger private practices.
截至 9 月底,近 800 名醫生已向來自大型學術中心或大型私人診所的處方醫生開出了至少一份處方。
Physicians are continuing to prioritize the sickest patients who have already been receiving multiple PAH therapies.
醫生們繼續優先考慮已經接受多種肺動脈高壓治療的病情最嚴重的患者。
We are also making important progress in access.
我們在准入方面也取得了重要進展。
We have achieved coverage for approximately 60% of lights, nearly doubling the amount from last quarter.
我們已經實現了約 60% 的燈光覆蓋率,幾乎是上季的兩倍。
Many payers have established coverage policies consistent with the label of STELLAR study outside the US.
許多付款人在美國境外制定了與 STELLAR 研究標籤一致的承保政策。
Initial feedback from scientific leaders has been positive following the recent EU approval, we are pleased that the first patients in Germany have received a prescription for Wind River.
最近歐盟批准後,科學界領袖的初步回饋是正面的,我們很高興德國的第一批患者收到了風河的處方。
We look forward to securing reinvestment in on-trade, which typically takes 12 months as well as launching in other international markets.
我們期待獲得對貿易的再投資(這通常需要 12 個月),以及在其他國際市場推出。
In summary, we are excited with the continued progress of the launch and look forward to positively impacting more patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension.
總之,我們對上市的持續進展感到興奮,並期待對更多肺動脈高壓患者產生正面影響。
Our Animal Health business delivered strong growth with sales increasing 11%.
我們的動物保健業務實現強勁成長,銷售額成長 11%。
Companion animal sales grew 17%, driven by uptake from new product launches, including the long acting Factor injectable in certain international markets as well as price night stock sales grew 7%, reflecting higher demand for poultry and swine products, the inclusion of sales from the recently acquired accurate portfolio K., which closed in mid July and price.
伴侶動物銷售額成長了17%,這得益於新產品的推出,包括在某些國際市場上註射的長效因子,以及夜間庫存銷售額增長了7%,反映出對家禽和豬產品的需求增加,其中包括來自最近收購的準確投資組合K.,於7月中旬收盤,價格。
I will now walk you through the remainder of our P&L, and my comments will be on a GAAP basis.
現在,我將向您介紹我們損益表的其餘部分,我的評論將基於公認會計原則 (GAAP)。
Gross margin was 18.5%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points, driven by reduced royalty rates for Keytruda and data to and a favorable product mix.
毛利率為 18.5%,成長了 3.5 個百分點,這得益於 Keytruda 特許權使用費的降低以及數據和有利的產品組合。
Operating expenses increased to $8.5 billion, including $2.2 billion of charges related to the acquisition of IS. and a promising candidate that from Chiara.
營運支出增加至 85 億美元,其中包括與收購 IS 相關的 22 億美元費用。還有一位來自 Chiara 的有前途的候選人。
Excluding these charges, operating expenses grew 9%, reflecting strategic investor payments in support of our innovative, early and late phase pipeline and key growth drivers.
除去這些費用,營運費用增加了 9%,反映出策略投資者為支持我們的創新、早期和後期管道以及關鍵成長動力而支付的費用。
Other income was $193 million, which includes the payment of $170 million from Daiichi Sankyo will elaboration for R. T cell engager.
其他收入為 1.93 億美元,其中包括第一三共支付的 1.7 億美元,用於 R.T 細胞接合器的研發。
Our tax rate of 21.9% includes an unfavorable impact from the iBuyer and cure on transactions.
我們 21.9% 的稅率包括 iBuyer 的不利影響和交易補救措施。
Taken together, earnings per share were $1.57.
合計每股收益為 1.57 美元。
Now turning to our 2024.
現在轉向我們的 2024 年。
Non-gaap guidance for continued operational strength of our business has enabled us to narrow our full year revenue guidance.
對我們業務持續營運實力的非公認會計準則指引使我們能夠縮小全年收入指引範圍。
We now expect revenue to be between 63.6 and 64.1 is this guidance range present strong year-over-year growth of 6%, including an approximate three percentage point negative impact from foreign exchange in mid October rates.
我們現在預計收入將在 63.6 至 64.1 之間,因為該指導範圍呈現 6% 的強勁同比增長,其中包括 10 月中旬匯率帶來的約 3 個百分點的負面影響。
A gross margin assumption remains approximately 81%.
毛利率假設仍約為 81%。
We expect operating expenses to be between 27.2 $98.3 billion, which now includes the $750 million one-time charge related to the asset acquisition from Curon.
我們預計營運費用將在 27.2 983 億美元之間,其中目前包括與 Curon 資產收購相關的 7.5 億美元一次性費用。
As a reminder, our guidance does not assume additional significant potential business development transactions.
提醒一下,我們的指導意見並未假設額外的重大潛在業務發展交易。
Other expense is now expect to be approximately $100 million.
目前預計其他費用約 1 億美元。
The benefit of the $170 million payment from Daiichi.
Daiichi 支付的 1.7 億美元的收益。
Our full-year tax rate is expected to be between 16% and 17%, which includes an unfavorable impact related to the cure on transaction.
我們的全年稅率預計在16%至17%之間,其中包括與交易治癒相關的不利影響。
We assume approximately 2.54 billion shares outstanding.
我們假設流通股約為 25.4 億股。
Taken together, we expect EPS of $7 and $0.72 to $7 and $0.77.
綜合來看,我們預計 EPS 分別為 7 美元和 0.72 美元至 7 美元和 0.77 美元。
This range includes a negative impact from foreign exchange of approximately 13% using net of tax rates.
該範圍包括約 13% 的外匯負面影響(扣除稅率)。
Recall, our prior guidance range was $7.94 to $8.4, including the one-time charge of $750 million, or $0.29 per share related to the asset acquisition from Curon and the 170 million of $0.05 per share benefit from the payment from Daiichi.
回想一下,我們先前的指引範圍為 7.94 美元至 8.4 美元,包括與 Curon 資產收購相關的一次性費用 7.5 億美元,即每股 0.29 美元,以及來自 Daiichi 付款的 1.7 億美元每股 0.05 美元的收益。
Our prior guidance range have been $7.70 $7.80 with a midpoint of $7.75.
我們之前的指導範圍為 7.70 美元、7.80 美元,中點為 7.75 美元。
Therefore, items midpoint is unchanged.
因此,項目中點不變。
Now turning to capital allocation, where our strategy remains the same, we will prioritize investments in our business to near and long-term growth.
現在轉向資本配置,我們的策略保持不變,我們將優先考慮對業務的近期和長期成長投資。
We will continue to invest in our key growth drivers and extensive pipeline of novel candidates, each of which has significant potential to address important unmet medical needs.
我們將繼續投資於我們的主要成長動力和廣泛的新候選藥物管道,每一個都具有解決重要的未滿足的醫療需求的巨大潛力。
We remain committed to our dividend with the goal of continuing to increase it over time.
我們仍然致力於支付股息,目標是隨著時間的推移繼續增加股息。
I think compelling science through business development remains a priority, and we are well positioned to pursue additional value-enhancing transactions.
我認為透過業務發展推動科學仍然是優先事項,我們處於有利位置來追求額外的增值交易。
We will continue to execute a modest level of share repurchase.
我們將繼續進行適度的股票回購。
To conclude, as we finish the year, we are confident in the momentum of our underpinned by robust global demand for our innovative medicines and vaccines.
總而言之,在今年結束之際,我們對全球對創新藥物和疫苗的強勁需求所支持的勢頭充滿信心。
Our unwavering dedication to leverage compelling science to save and improve the lives of patients we serve has put us in a position of financial and operational strengths, our commitment to bring forward important innovation for us to deliver value to patients, customers and shareholders well into the future.
我們堅定不移地致力於利用令人信服的科學來拯救和改善我們所服務的患者的生活,這使我們處於財務和營運優勢的地位,我們致力於推動重要的創新,為患者、客戶和股東提供價值未來。
With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Dean
有了這個,我現在想把電話轉給 Dean
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Thank you. Can see we have continued to execute on our strategy of diversifying in oncology and expanding into new therapeutic areas while also investing in novel modalities and technologies.
謝謝。可以看到,我們繼續執行腫瘤學多元化和擴展到新治療領域的策略,同時也投資於新的模式和技術。
Third quarter was marked by several important clinical and regulatory milestones.
第三季有幾個重要的臨床和監管里程碑。
I will first cover infectious diseases on a broader portfolio.
我將首先涵蓋更廣泛的傳染病。
As Rob last week, a CIP. voted to update the adult age base, pneumococcal vaccination guidelines and recommend the use of cash back or 21 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for individuals 50 years and older cutbacks of specific design to cover serotypes responsible for the majority of invasive pneumococcal disease and include serotypes responsible for approximately 84% of cases of IPC in adult 50 and older, based on a national level CDC data from 2018 to 2022, building on our company's proud legacy of an infectious diseases detailed findings from a pivotal Phase IIb flash three, our investigational respiratory syncytial virus, preventative monoclonal antibody for the protection of infant entering their first RSV season were presented at ID Week plus roadmap hindered as a single dose immunization, healthy preterm and full-term influenced regardless of weight met all trial endpoint with consistent results through both five months and six months' time points.
正如 Rob 上週進行的 CIP。投票決定更新成人年齡基礎、肺炎球菌疫苗接種指南,並建議對50 歲及以上的個人使用現金返還或21 價肺炎球菌結合疫苗,並進行專門設計削減,以涵蓋導致大多數侵襲性肺炎球菌疾病的血清型,並包括導致根據2018 年至2022 年國家級CDC 數據,約84% 的IPC 病例發生在50 歲及以上的成年人中,建立在我們公司引以為豪的傳染病遺產基礎上,我們的研究性呼吸道合胞病毒關鍵IIb 期閃現三期的詳細發現在ID 週上提出了用於保護進入第一個RSV 季節的嬰兒的預防性單克隆抗體,加上路線圖受到單劑量免疫的阻礙,健康的早產兒和足月受到影響,無論體重如何,都達到了所有試驗終點,五個月和四個月的結果一致六個月的時間點。
The incidence of adverse events and serious AEs were comparable between treatment and placebo groups with no treatment or RSV related death.
治療組和安慰劑組的不良事件和嚴重 AE 發生率相當,沒有治療或 RSV 相關死亡。
As shown in the summary tables in the data press release has rubber mAb immunization is being studied across mild, moderate and severe RSV disease endpoint.
如數據新聞稿中的總結表所示,正在對輕度、中度和重度 RSV 疾病終點的橡膠單株抗體免疫進行研究。
Importantly, class roadmap significantly reduce the incidence of RSV, the primary endpoint and hospitalizations associated with RSV infections through five months by more than 84%.
重要的是,課程路線圖顯著降低了 RSV 的發生率、主要終點以及五個月內與 RSV 感染相關的住院率超過 84%。
The secondary endpoint.
次要終點。
There was also observed cause Rovuma repeat lower respiratory infections by more than 90% through five months for tertiary endpoints.
在第三個終點中,也觀察到五個月內 Rovuma 重複下呼吸道感染率超過 90%。
Positive results were also presented from an interim analysis and a separate Phase three study evaluating the safety and efficacy of Co-Broke versus palivizumab in infants and children at increased risk for severe RSV disease.
一項中期分析和另一項獨立的三期研究也得出了積極的結果,該研究評估了Co-Broke 與帕利珠單抗在嚴重RSV 疾病風險增加的嬰兒和兒童中的安全性和有效性。
If approved, class Rubbermaid will be the first and only immunization designed to private events with direct rapid and durable production for the full six months RSV season with the convenience of a one-dose regardless of wait for a month per berth.
如果獲得批准,Rubbermaid 等級將成為第一個也是唯一一個專為私人活動設計的免疫疫苗,可在整個六個月的RSV 季節內直接快速、持久地生產,並且無論每個泊位等待一個月,都可以方便地接種一劑疫苗。
Also at REIT Week, positive data were presented from the Phase two study of the combination of islatravir and lenacapavir.
同樣在 REIT Week 上,islatravir 和 lenacapavi 聯合用藥的第二階段研究也發表了正面的數據。
Gilead's HIV one capsid inhibitor has a once weekly oral treatment option for people living with HIV.
吉利德的 HIV one 衣殼抑制劑為 HIV 感染者提供每週一次的口服治療選擇。
The 48 week results build on the positive 24 week data presented.
48 週結果建立在所提供的 24 週正向數據的基礎上。
These five things reinforce the strength of our HIV pipeline as we evaluate multiple promising candidates in preventative and trade.
當我們評估預防和貿易領域的多個有前途的候選人時,這五件事增強了我們愛滋病毒管道的實力。
Now back to oncology, Keytruda continues to raise the bar in treating earlier stage of disease in the earlier stage setting.
現在回到腫瘤學,Keytruda 繼續提高早期疾病治療的標準。
Keytruda is the only PD-1 or PD-L1 to date to receive FDA approvals for nine indications and is the only treat a significant overall survival benefit in for earlier stage settings, non-small cell lung cancer, renal cell carcinoma, cervical cancer and triple-negative breast cancer.
Keytruda 是迄今為止唯一獲得FDA 批准用於九種適應症的PD-1 或 PD-L1,也是唯一對早期階段、非小細胞肺癌、腎細胞癌、子宮頸癌和癌症具有顯著整體存活獲益的治療方法。
And as Caroline, we continue to see strong patient impact.
作為卡羅琳,我們繼續看到對患者的巨大影響。
Keytruda based regimens have demonstrated positive results across 13 pivotal trials in a tumor types.
基於 Keytruda 的治療方案在針對某種腫瘤類型的 13 項關鍵試驗中顯示出積極的結果。
Building on the data in the earlier stage setting, we recently announced positive top-line results for the KEYNOTE six eight nine trial evaluating Keytruda as a peri-operative treatment for patients newly diagnosed with stage three or four, a respected locally advanced head and neck squamous Alma.
基於早期階段的數據,我們最近宣布了KEYNOTE 6 8 9 試驗的積極頂線結果,該試驗評估了Keytruda 作為新診斷的三期或四期患者的圍手術期治療方法,這是一種受人尊敬的局部晚期頭頸部疾病鱗狀阿爾瑪。
The trial met its primary endpoint of event-free survival and demonstrated an improvement in major pathological response, a key secondary endpoints.
該試驗達到了無事件存活的主要終點,並證明了主要病理反應(關鍵的次要終點)的改善。
This is the first positive trial to show a statistically significant benefits of neoadjuvant plus aggregate anti-PD-1 treatment for newly diagnosed patients with resected locally advanced head and the cell carcinoma in 20 years, results will be submitted to regulatory authorities and if approved, would mark the 10th indication of a Keytruda based regimen for the treatment of earlier stage cancer.
這是20年來第一個積極的試驗,顯示新輔助聯合抗PD-1聯合治療對新診斷的局部晚期頭部和細胞癌切除患者俱有統計學上顯著的益處,結果將提交給監管機構,如果獲得批准,這將標誌著基於 Keytruda 的療法用於治療早期癌症的第 10 個適應症。
On the regulatory front, we received FDA approval for Keytruda in combination with pemetrexed rate and platinum chemotherapy for the first line treatment of adult patients with unresectable advanced or metastatic malignant pleural mesothelioma.
在監管方面,我們獲得 FDA 批准 Keytruda 聯合培美曲塞和鉑類化療用於不可切除的晚期或轉移性惡性胸膜間皮瘤成人患者的一線治療。
Based on results from the key note for a three study.
基於三項研究的主題說明的結果。
This brings them number of distinct FDA approved indications for Croda to 41.
這使得 FDA 批准的 Croda 不同適應症數量達到 41 個。
The European Commission approved three Keytruda based regimens, which include in combination with Pfizer, passive and active for targeting antibody drug conjugate for the first line treatment of adult patients with unresectable or metastatic urothelial carcinoma.
歐盟委員會批准了三種基於 Keytruda 的治療方案,其中包括與輝瑞聯合、被動和主動靶向抗體藥物偶聯物,用於不可切除或轉移性尿路上皮癌成年患者的一線治療。
Based on the keynote, a 39 in combination with carboplatin and Praxair paclitaxel for the first line treatment of primary advanced or recurrent endometrial carcinoma and in combination with chemo radiotherapy for the treatment of Fargo 2014, stage three to four, a locally advanced search typical cancer in adults who have not received prior definitive therapy based on Keynote Atrix eight.
基於主題演講,a 39 合併卡鉑和普萊克斯紫杉醇一線治療原發性晚期或復發性子宮內膜癌,並聯合化療放療治療Fargo 2014,三至四期,局部晚期搜索典型癌症之前未接受過基於Keynote Atrix 8 的明確治療的成年人。
Keytruda was also approved by the Japanese Ministry of Health for three indications in combination with Pfizer's passive and active for targeting antibody drug conjugates for the first line treatment of adult patients with radically unresectable urothelial carcinoma in out a 39 study for patients with radically unresectable urothelial carcinoma who are not eligible for any platinum-containing chemotherapy based on Keynote oh five to as well as in combination and with chemotherapy as neoadjuvant treatment, then continued as monotherapy as an adjuvant therapy for patients with non-small cell lung cancer based on from KEYNOTE six 71 at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress, three presentations for Keytruda were showcased during Presidential Symposium sessions.
日本厚生省也批准了Keytruda 的三個適應症,與輝瑞的被動和主動靶向抗體藥物偶聯物聯合用於根治性不可切除尿路上皮癌成年患者的一線治療,這是一項針對根治性不可切除尿路上皮癌患者的39 項研究不符合Keynote oh 5的任何含鉑化療以及聯合化療作為新輔助治療的資格,然後繼續作為基於KEYNOTE 6的非小細胞肺癌患者的單一療法的輔助治療71 在在歐洲腫瘤內科學會大會上,主席研討會期間展示了Keytruda 的三場演講。
These include overall survival data from the KEYNOTE five to two trial in high-risk, early stage triple-negative breast cancer overall survival data from the keynote 18 trial in patients with newly diagnosed high-risk locally advanced cervical cancer and top overall survival data from the keynote oh six trial, showing the long-term benefit over ipilimumab in patients with advanced melanoma.
其中包括針對高風險早期三陰性乳癌的 KEYNOTE 5 至 2 項試驗的總生存數據、針對新診斷的高風險局部晚期子宮頸癌患者的 Keynote 18 試驗的總生存數據以及來自主題演講oh 六試驗顯示了晚期黑色素瘤患者相對於伊匹單抗(ipilimumab) 的長期益處。
And finally, in oncology, we continue to advance our increasingly diverse pipeline, including our efforts to evaluate the potential of new combination regimens to improve patients.
最後,在腫瘤學方面,我們繼續推動日益多樣化的產品線,包括我們努力評估新的聯合治療方案改善患者的潛力。
Earlier this month, we announced a clinical development collaboration with Exelixis for their investigational tyrosine kinase inhibitor, ventilator net, which will be evaluated in combination with Keytruda for the treatment of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and with one rig for the treatment of patients with renal cell carcinoma.
本月早些時候,我們宣布與Exelixis 就其研究性酪氨酸激酶抑製劑呼吸機網絡進行臨床開發合作,該藥物將與Keytruda 聯合評估,用於治療頭頸鱗狀細胞癌患者,並使用一台設備來治療腎細胞癌患者。
In collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo, we initiated ID. eight grow to a Phase three trial evaluating affinity I-Mab direct accounts of B7-H3 directed antibody drug conjugate for the treatment of patients with relapsed small cell lung.
我們與第一三共合作發起了 ID。八項進展到第三階段試驗,評估 I-Mab 直接說明 B7-H3 定向抗體藥物綴合物治療復發性小細胞肺患者的親和力。
We also expanded our agreement to evaluate the combo nation of IDX die with MK. six zero seven zero and invested in our Delta like ligand three targeting T cell engager.
我們還擴大了我們的協議,以評估 IDX 晶片與 MK 的組合。六零七零並投資於我們的 Delta 樣配體三靶向 T 細胞接合器。
Evidence from clinical studies for each candidate provides strong rationale for evaluating this combination regimen.
每個候選藥物的臨床研究證據為評估此聯合方案提供了強有力的理由。
Next to our broader portfolio.
接下來是我們更廣泛的產品組合。
As Caroline mentioned, we were pleased to receive approval from the European Commission for Wind River, expanding the reach of this treatment option, which we believe has the potential form the treatment journey for patients suffering from pulmonary arterial hypertension.
正如卡羅琳所提到的,我們很高興獲得風河歐洲委員會的批准,擴大了這種治療方案的範圍,我們相信這種治療方案有可能成為肺動脈高壓患者的治療旅程。
In immunology, 50 week efficacy and safety data for to lead the Sochi bark, our investigation or humanized antibody directed tumor necrosis factor like cytokine IA from the Phase two MS, you see an Apollo CD. studies for sort of colitis and Crohn's disease were presented at the United European Gastroenterology Week Congress.
在免疫學方面,50週的療效和安全性數據領先於索契樹皮,我們的研究或人源化抗體導向的腫瘤壞死因子(如來自第二階段MS的細胞因子IA),您可以看到阿波羅CD。在歐洲聯合胃腸病學週大會上提出了有關結腸炎和克隆氏症的研究。
The results reinforce the potential of to resell key part to help patients achieve long-term clinical remission.
結果增強了轉售關鍵部件以幫助患者實現長期臨床緩解的潛力。
The Phase three trials continue to actively enroll patients.
三期試驗繼續積極招募患者。
Finally, an ophthalmology soon.
最後很快就去眼科了。
After completing our acquisition of a bile, we the Phase IIb slash three Brunello trial for MK. 3,000, an investigational tetravalent bispecific antibody that access and agonist of the linguist related integration side, signaling pathway being of valuated for the treatment of diabetic macular edema.
在完成我們對膽的收購後,我們對 MK 進行了 IIb 期削減三布魯內羅試驗。 3,000,一種研究中的四價雙特異性抗體,可進入並激動語言學家相關的整合側,信號通路對於治療糖尿病黃斑水腫具有重要意義。
We are executing on our one pipeline approach augmenting and complementing our internal programs through business.
我們正在執行單一管道方法,透過業務來增強和補充我們的內部計劃。
Recently, we completed the acquisition of CN. two zero one novel CD. three CD. 19 A. T cell engager, now known as MK. one zero four five from Curon biopharmaceutical MK. one zero four five has shown to significantly deplete B-cells levels with potential applications in B-cell malignancies and autoimmune diseases.
近期,我們完成了對CN的收購。二零一小說CD。三張CD。 19 A. T 細胞接合器,現稱為 MK。來自 Curon 生物製藥 MK 的一零四五。一零四五已被證明可以顯著降低 B 細胞水平,具有在 B 細胞惡性腫瘤和自體免疫疾病中的潛在應用。
As with our previous acquisitions, we plan to seamlessly advanced clinical development with rigor and speed in closing.
與我們先前的收購一樣,我們計劃以嚴謹、快速的方式無縫推進臨床開發。
During the quarter, we saw a regular cadence of late-phase pipeline advancements, including regulatory milestones and data readout will continue to make progress across therapeutic areas, and I look forward to providing further updates on our programs in 2025.
在本季度,我們看到了後期管道進展的規律性節奏,包括監管里程碑和數據讀取將繼續在整個治療領域取得進展,我期待在 2025 年提供有關我們計畫的進一步更新。
And now I turn the call back to Peter.
現在我把電話轉回給彼得。
Peter Dannenbaum - IR
Peter Dannenbaum - IR
Surely, we're now ready for Q&A. If the analysts today could limit themselves to one question, it would be a fresh shows we can get as many analysts on the calls possible. Thank you very much.
當然,我們現在已經準備好要進行問答了。如果今天的分析師能夠將自己限制在一個問題上,那麼我們可以讓盡可能多的分析師參加電話會議,這將是一個新的表現。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Trung Huynh, UBS.
(操作員指令)Trung Huynh,UBS。
Trung Huynh - Analyst
Trung Huynh - Analyst
Just on Gardasil, given the inventory levels aged, you've noted this decline in demand.
就 Gardasil 而言,鑑於庫存水準老化,您已經注意到需求下降。
How should we think about dynamics as we head into 2025, given that increase in promotional activity, but that's balanced by inventory work down? We take time time or Germany, you have any color on when we'll see an inflection to that return and growth?
進入 2025 年,考慮到促銷活動的增加,但庫存工作的減少來平衡,我們應該如何考慮動態?我們需要時間或德國,您對何時會看到回報和成長的變化有什麼看法嗎?
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Great. Thanks for the question. You're obviously, we're very focused on Gardasil in China. But maybe just to step back for a second. We continue to be very proud of the contribution, the garden tools making for patients and people around the world to really address and hopefully eliminate long term.
偉大的。謝謝你的提問。顯然,我們非常關注中國的加衛苗。但也許只是退後一步。我們仍然為我們的貢獻感到非常自豪,花園工具為世界各地的患者和人們真正解決並希望消除長期的問題。
So the walls, other HBV would be loaded cans to. So that important work will continue. And and importantly, as we commented in her prepared remarks, was China.
因此,牆壁上會裝載其他B型肝炎病毒罐。因此這項重要的工作將持續下去。而且重要的是,正如我們在她準備好的演講中所評論的那樣,是中國。
I did decline in our spin to China in a second, but we saw strong double-digit growth and really nearly every other region around the world, which was showing progress we're making in, which is why we continue to have such confidence in the long-term potential for this.
我確實在一秒鐘內減少了對中國的投資,但我們看到了強勁的兩位數增長,幾乎世界上所有其他地區的增長,這表明我們正在取得進展,這就是為什麼我們繼續對這方面的長期潛力。
As it relates to China specifically, we think about 2025, I don't want to give specific guidance because obviously, we're still working through our 2025 plan.
由於它與中國具體相關,我們考慮 2025 年,我不想給出具體指導,因為顯然,我們仍在製定 2025 年計劃。
But what I would say is we do expect to continue to see a decline in shipments into China into 2025.
但我想說的是,我們確實預計到 2025 年中國的出貨量將繼續下降。
And as we had highlighted before, there's a little bit earlier than we originally expected, but we it had always expected that over time, as we work through the board, we would see that the female opportunity decline and then hopefully seeing growth come with bringing the mail opportunity, which we would expect to see with approval assuming it comes next year.
正如我們之前強調的那樣,這比我們最初預期的要早一些,但我們一直預計,隨著時間的推移,當我們透過董事會開展工作時,我們會看到女性機會下降,然後希望看到增長帶來郵件機會,假設明年出現,我們預計會得到批准。
So that's how we see it progressing stores.
這就是我們對商店發展的看法。
We think 2025, we should in China really in the 2 to 3 billion or an opportunity for 2025 and for the next several years with the opportunity in males really being the growth driver.
我們認為,到 2025 年,我們在中國應該真正實現 2 到 30 億,或者是 2025 年以及未來幾年的一個機會,其中男性的機會真正成為成長動力。
And at that level, we would expect overall Mercury, you're going to continue to see based on the portfolio.
在這個水平上,我們預計整體水星,你將繼續根據投資組合看到。
We have solid growth. So I think that's just important to kind of frame where we're seeing things.
我們有穩健的成長。所以我認為這對我們看待事物的框架很重要。
But understanding we're focused on this. We're bringing our efforts to drive demand, and we're going to make progress. We are making progress, but it's going to take some time.
但了解我們專注於此。我們正在努力推動需求,我們將會取得進展。我們正在取得進展,但這需要一些時間。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from [Donald Trump design with Guggenheim Securities].
我們的下一個問題來自[唐納德·川普與古根漢證券的設計]。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
This is Edward on for a lot more from Guggenheim.
這是愛德華在古根漢的更多作品。
Just on rent when Revere, what are you seeing in terms of safety since it's been rolled out commercial commercially, any sense on how many patients on the low dose versus the high dose and then an estimate of what percent of patients need to have their their dose reduced or stopped due to the safety issues? Thank you.
就在裡維爾出租時,自從它已經商業化推出以來,您在安全性方面看到了什麼,有多少患者接受低劑量與高劑量的比較,然後估計有多少百分比的患者需要接受他們的治療由於安全問題而減少或停止劑量?謝謝。
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Yes, I'll maybe let the in-store and ads drummer from from the safety issue is how we haven't had any profound are important signal at all in relationship to the patients that we've been serving.
是的,我可能會讓店內和廣告鼓手遠離安全問題,因為我們沒有收到任何與我們一直服務的患者有關的深刻而重要的信號。
So with that has not been an issue to date in the patients that have gotten Wind River but mobile, Ravi here.
因此,到目前為止,對於使用風河但移動設備的患者來說,這並不是一個問題,這裡是拉維。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
So just to give you a sense of what we're seeing the market in places we said in the prepared comments, we are seeing the sickest patients being predominantly about 80% of the patients we have today.
因此,為了讓您了解我們在準備好的評論中所說的地方的市場情況,我們看到病情最嚴重的患者占我們今天患者的 80% 左右。
So those would be for on triple therapy. And as we have much of the security being news, we're still nominally sharing news of single vials, not double vials as we're still bringing a lot of people on the therapy.
所以這些將用於三聯療法。由於我們有很多安全新聞,我們名義上仍然在分享單瓶的消息,而不是雙瓶的消息,因為我們仍然讓很多人接受治療。
Remember that when a patient starts therapy, they start on a single vial and then they would position it either to maintaining on single or going to double depending on their wage over time.
請記住,當患者開始治療時,他們會先服用一瓶,然後根據他們的工資情況,將其調整為維持一瓶或加倍。
So we expect to see see, as we saw, was stellar that you would end up with about two thirds of patients would be on this in the single vial and about one-third of patients on the double volatile right now, that's a little bit more skewed towards single, but we expect that still to get there over time.
因此,我們期望看到,正如我們所看到的,非常出色的是,最終大約三分之二的患者將使用單瓶藥物,而大約三分之一的患者現在將使用雙倍揮發性藥物,這有點多更傾向於單身,但我們預計隨著時間的推移,這種情況仍會出現。
And importantly, on your broader question, again, in one sense about where we see safety, I think the best real world statement around safety. We're seeing very strong adherence and really seeing less durations than we expected. So the anecdotal information we're getting from the marketplaces for the real world experience, I would say is that safety is not an issue.
重要的是,關於您更廣泛的問題,從某種意義上說,我們在哪裡看待安全,我認為這是關於安全的最佳現實世界聲明。我們看到了非常強烈的依從性,而且持續時間確實比我們預期的要短。因此,根據我們從現實世界體驗市場獲得的軼事信息,我想說的是,安全不是問題。
Operator
Operator
Louise Chen with Cantor.
路易絲·陳與康托爾。
Louise Chen - Analyst
Louise Chen - Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask you about your outlook for 2025 when the major puts and takes are and when do you plan to get that guidance? Thank you.
你好。感謝您提出我的問題。我想問您對 2025 年主要看跌期權的展望,以及您計劃何時獲得該指導?謝謝。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
So I'll turn it over to go into the sort of the ways.
所以我會把它翻過來來討論這些方法。
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
We plan to give our guidance with CF. Q4 earnings as we ordinarily do. But as I give you a sense if the I-4 pushes and pulls, if I start with 2024, it's been a really strong year for our company.
我們計劃向 CF 提供指導。第四季收益與我們平常的做法一樣。但正如我向您介紹的那樣,如果 I-4 公路會推動和拉動,如果我從 2024 年開始,這對我們公司來說是非常強勁的一年。
As we've noted, we expect to deliver the 6% to 7% growth while we're investing and really driving our pipeline and have delivered strong underlying operating margin improvement. As we look to 25, we expect solid growth of business and the key opportunities that we had.
正如我們所指出的,我們預計將實現 6% 至 7% 的成長,同時我們正在投資並真正推動我們的產品線,並實現了強勁的基礎營業利潤率改善。展望 25 週年,我們預期業務將穩健成長,並擁有關鍵機會。
The continued impact for Keytruda, especially in earlier stages, but the tumor types we would call out would be early stage non-small cell lung cancer. We've got great opportunity in women's cancers, including early-stage, triple negative breast, but also endometrial and cervical cancer.
對 Keytruda 的持續影響,特別是在早期階段,但我們指出的腫瘤類型將是早期非小細胞肺癌。我們在女性癌症方面有很大的機會,包括早期三陰性乳癌,還有子宮內膜癌和子宮頸癌。
And of course, bladder cancer opportunity for growth. We are confident we are with Wendy, correct rack and the opportunities there to continue to see strong performance in excess of patients.
當然,膀胱癌也有生長的機會。我們對 Wendy、正確的機架以及繼續在超過患者中看到強勁表現的機會充滿信心。
And of course, we have recent and upcoming launches that includes Wind River, where we have high expectations for growth and increased pet vaccine, where we expect to get a majority share of the time. And it also includes the opportunity for the launch of atezolizumab in RSV ahead of the 25 26 season.
當然,我們最近和即將推出的產品包括風河公司,我們對風河公司的成長和增加的寵物疫苗抱有很高的期望,我們預計將在其中獲得大部分時間。它還包括在 25 26 賽季之前在 RSV 中推出 atezolizumab 的機會。
And as we need Animal Health is a strong contributor to growth, and we expect that continues into next year. We have a few reasons. One is the expiration of our agreement with J & J's to the immunology products, Remicade and Simponi.
正如我們所需要的,動物保健是成長的強大貢獻者,我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。我們有幾個原因。一是我們與強生公司就免疫學產品 Remicade 和 Simponi 的協議到期。
And as Rob noted, we do expect sales have gone to sell in China decline in 2020 filed with 2024. However, all of that said, we're very confident in the opportunity to drive solid growth for us in 25, while we invest fully behind our expansive pipeline, investing the commercial activities to events in the market place and expect to deliver operating margin expansion.
正如 Rob 指出的那樣,我們確實預計 2020 年中國銷量將下降,2024 年也將下降。背後,將商業活動投資於市場上的活動,並期望實現營業利潤率的擴張。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Chris Shibutani with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Chris Shibutani。
Chris Shibutani - Analyst
Chris Shibutani - Analyst
Thank you very much on the capital and opportunities, something that you have been very consistent about providing us updates on given some of the push towards in the business, in particular vulnerability of the virus itself.
非常感謝您提供的資金和機會,鑑於業務的一些推動,特別是病毒本身的脆弱性,您一直非常一致地向我們提供最新資訊。
I think you have capacity and you have also mentioned interest in certain areas. I would note with obesity. Can you update us on where you are with your appetite, scale, therapeutic area? Anything that would give us insight into your ability to use that as a lever to help perhaps offset some of this uncertainty tied to ourself? Thank you.
我認為你有能力,而且你也提到了對某些領域的興趣。我會注意到肥胖。您能否向我們介紹一下您的胃口、體重、治療領域的最新情況?有什麼可以讓我們深入了解您使用它作為槓桿來幫助抵消與我們自身相關的一些不確定性的能力嗎?謝謝。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Chris, thanks for the question.
是的,克里斯,謝謝你的提問。
You're obviously, I feel very good about the business development we've done, including some of the transaction, the Dean just highlighted in the prepared remarks, and we're going to continue to look to do more.
顯然,我對我們所做的業務發展感到非常滿意,包括一些交易,院長剛剛在準備好的講話中強調了這一點,我們將繼續尋求做更多的事情。
So what we feel good about where we are actually he's made a comment in the prepared remarks. We have more Phase three assets now than we had with more than tripled from where we were three years ago, it was more than 20. So we have a lot there, but we need to add more and we're literally all therapeutic areas.
因此,我們對我們實際上所處的位置感到滿意,他在準備好的發言中發表了評論。我們現在擁有的第三階段資產比三年前多了三倍多,達到了 20 多個。
Our approach remains words always been, which we start with the science and where we see a scientific opportunity that addresses an unmet need and where we think Merck can strategically play. If we see that align with value, we will act as it relates to liquidity.
我們的方法仍然是一貫的,我們從科學開始,我們看到了解決未滿足需求的科學機會,我們認為默克可以在策略上發揮作用。如果我們看到這與價值一致,我們將按照與流動性相關的方式採取行動。
Our goal and strategy continues to be focusing on the second and third generation opportunities in that space. Default in the past, thinking more of a focus on oil oil opportunities and those that can be in combination focused on outcomes that go beyond Germany city, but to actually metal medical outcomes.
我們的目標和策略繼續關注該領域的第二代和第三代機會。過去默認,更關注石油機會和那些可以結合的機會,關注超越德國城市的結果,但實際上關注金屬醫療結果。
So we continue to look, but we're going to be disappointed if we don't see something where we think it makes sense from a value perspective and a strategy we will move beyond that.
因此,我們繼續尋找,但如果我們沒有看到我們認為從價值角度有意義的東西以及我們將超越它的策略,我們將會感到失望。
I would say we should continue to see us look in areas of oncology, immunology and broader cardiometabolic. All the places we're reporting today are as we continue to look for opportunities from a capacity perspective. Just to be clear, we continue to think we have capacity, frankly, to do that in pretty much anything of any size. But our focus areas continues to be mainly in that one to $15 billion range growth.
我想說,我們應該繼續關注腫瘤學、免疫學和更廣泛的心臟代謝領域。我們今天報道的所有地方都是我們繼續從產能角度尋找機會的過程。需要明確的是,坦白說,我們仍然認為我們有能力在幾乎任何規模的任何事情上做到這一點。但我們的重點領域仍主要集中在 1 至 150 億美元範圍內的成長。
Operator
Operator
Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
戴娜·格雷博斯 (Daina Graybosch) 與 Leerink Partners 合作。
Daina Graybosch - Analyst
Daina Graybosch - Analyst
Can you talk a little bit more about the pneumococcal opportunity?
能多談談肺炎球菌的機會嗎?
What do you think is the incremental market size from the expansion down to age 50? And is there anything you're looking for and the MMWR. language or when they publish that recommendation, that would drive more or less share to come back versus the competitor? Maybe, Dan, you want to shorten retention?
您認為從擴張到 50 歲的增量市場規模是多少?還有您要找的東西和 MMWR 嗎?或者當他們發布該建議時,這會導致或多或少的份額恢復到與競爭對手相比?也許,丹,你想縮短保留時間?
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Yes. I mean, I think it was interesting to watch the ACIP. that they're balancing how to make the best or recommendations. And we should just remember, we have a 21 valent vaccine that gives 85% adult protection. That was very clear and their competitive as a 20 valent, that has a 54% adult. And I think that way was very clear at the SIP.
是的。我的意思是,我認為觀看 ACIP 很有趣。他們正在平衡如何做出最好的或提出建議。我們應該記住,我們有一種 21 價疫苗,可為成人提供 85% 的保護。這是非常明顯的,他們作為 20 價的產品具有競爭力,其中 54% 是成人。我認為這種方式在 SIP 上非常明確。
And I would just remind myself that previously, when they thought about doing a 50 to 64, just with the 20 valent, there was a decision not to proceed.
我只是提醒自己,以前,當他們考慮只用 20 價進行 50 到 64 的開發時,他們決定不再繼續。
And I really do think that health economic data and The Daily Show for 21 ballot given at 85% versus 54% is what drove them to finally move and address a really important need, which is the health equity issues in relationship to a pneumococcal vaccination by lowering it to 50 to 64 and lowering it for everyone. But in terms of the dynamics in them market.
我確實認為,衛生經濟數據和《每日秀》的 21 輪投票結果分別為 85% 和 54%,促使他們最終採取行動並解決一個真正重要的需求,即與肺炎球菌疫苗接種相關的健康公平問題將其降低至50 至64,並為所有人降低。但就市場動態而言。
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So in terms of the commercial opportunity we have given the strength of the data that team has just said, we feel very confident in our opportunity.
所以就商業機會而言,我們給了團隊剛才所說的數據強度,我們對我們的機會非常有信心。
And to remind intensive, the number of patients in the United States, around 100 million people over the age of 50, 60 million of those are in the 64 age group, which now given the ACIP. recommendation, provides a tremendous opportunity for us to activate that patient cohort to go and get this vaccine as well.
需要重點提醒的是,在美國,大約有 1 億 50 歲以上的患者,其中 6,000 萬人屬於 64 歲年齡段,現在正在接受 ACIP。的建議,為我們提供了一個巨大的機會來激活患者群體去接種這種疫苗。
As a group that sit above the age of 65 given the strength of our data. So we are ready. We have supply and we're looking forward to ensuring that we can protect as many people as possible.
鑑於我們的數據強度,作為一個年齡在 65 歲以上的群體。所以我們準備好了。我們有供應,我們期待確保能夠保護盡可能多的人。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Chris Schott, JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯·肖特。
Chris Schott - Analyst
Chris Schott - Analyst
Just another one on Garda. So Rob, I believe you said kind of 2 to 3 billion per year opportunity for China over the next few years. I just a couple of quick ones there. First, what does that compare to where China is going to shake out for Merck this year? Is that two to $3 billion number was reflected in the USD11 billion longer term target? Thanks so much.
這只是加爾達的另一件事。 Rob,我相信你說過未來幾年中國每年會獲得 2 到 30 億的機會。我只是在那裡快速地講了幾個。首先,這與今年默克中國將面臨的挑戰相比如何? 110 億美元的長期目標是否反映了 20 至 30 億美元的數字?非常感謝。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So it gives us a sense of where we are and we don't normally do have product level guidance, but or But specific to the quarterly basis. But given some focus on Gardasil, just to give you a sense where we were for China Garda. So in the third quarter, it's about approximately $500 million in the third quarter.
是的。因此,它讓我們了解我們所處的位置,我們通常沒有產品級別指導,但或但特定於季度。但考慮到 Gardasil 的一些關注,只是為了讓您了解我們在 China Garda 中的位置。所以第三季大約是5億美元左右。
And as we said, we would expect to ship about the same amount in the fourth quarter. So you should expect that the fourth quarter itself would also be in that $500 million range. And so that kind of gives you a sense of of over.
正如我們所說,我們預計第四季的出貨量大致相同。因此,您應該預期第四季本身也將在 5 億美元的範圍內。所以這會給你一種結束的感覺。
So as you look forward to 2025, obviously, as we think in 2025 and over the next several years, if you're running about two to three booms, that's why we made the comment that with the German, the other opportunities we see around the world, we remain confident in our ability to get to the $11 billion by 2030.
因此,當你展望2025 年時,顯然,正如我們在2025 年和未來幾年中所認為的那樣,如果你正在經歷兩到三個繁榮,這就是為什麼我們評論說,與德國相比,我們看到的其他機會就全球而言,我們仍然對到 2030 年達到 110 億美元的目標充滿信心。
So we are contemplating that two to $3 billion over the next several years in China as on the contribution that it would make to get us where we need understanding also that long term, we do expect to be able to have the potential for growth driven by the mail opportunity in China and then obviously more broadly around the rest of the world.
因此,我們正在考慮未來幾年在中國投入 20 至 30 億美元,因為它將為我們實現我們需要的目標做出貢獻,而且從長遠來看,我們確實希望能夠擁有由以下因素驅動的成長潛力:中國的郵件機會,顯然還有世界其他地區的郵件機會。
Operator
Operator
Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的特倫斯弗林。
Terence Flynn - Analyst
Terence Flynn - Analyst
Just one clarification. Just on the income, the Garda sell-side, Rob, that's the two EUR3 billion includes the e-mails or it does not include the LCR is a little unclear based on the last response and mentally on next-gen.
只是一處澄清。僅就收入而言,Garda 賣方 Rob,這 30 億歐元包括電子郵件,或不包括 LCR,根據最後的回覆和對下一代的心理,還不清楚。
Ito remains a big focus on for both Merck and the. Mr. Dan, you talked a lot about sort of efforts Merck has made on this front. We're just be curious to get your perspective on the PD-1 PD-L1 Veg F bispecifics obviously are some data emerging out of China.
伊藤仍然是默克和默克公司的重點關注對象。丹先生,您談到了默克公司在這方面所做的一些努力。我們只是想知道您對 PD-1 PD-L1 Veg F 雙特異性抗體的看法,顯然是來自中國的一些數據。
They're just, you know, any thoughts on that data and where that might should come from a competitive landscape perspective or if that's a target March's has considered at all? Thank you.
他們只是,你知道,對這些數據的任何想法,以及從競爭格局的角度來看這些數據可能來自哪裡,或者這是否是馬奇考慮過的目標?謝謝。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So I'll take the first part of that question. The answer is yes, the two to $3 billion over the next several years does include mail. We have the opportunity as you look longer term to drive growth with that opportunity. That was really the point we're trying to make.
是的。所以我將回答這個問題的第一部分。答案是肯定的,未來幾年的 200 到 30 億美元確實包括郵件。當您放眼長遠時,我們有機會利用這個機會推動成長。這確實是我們想要表達的觀點。
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
In relation to your question in relationship to the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway is an important access. I just there's been a lot of data and it's not just the most recent data. Merck has made a substantial investment in that pie.
關於您與血管內皮生長因子途徑相關的問題,這是一個重要的途徑。我只是有很多數據,而且不僅僅是最新的數據。默克公司在這塊蛋糕上進行了大量投資。
Our collaboration with Eisai and Exelixis is along that pathway. It's PD-1 in this case with the veg FRTK. inhibitors, other companies have taken their PD-L1 and add it to Boston.
我們與衛材和 Exelixis 的合作就是沿著這條道路進行的。在本例中,它是 PD-1 和 veg FRTK。抑制劑,其他公司已經將他們的 PD-L1 添加到波士頓。
And I would just emphasize our interest and have to Alpha is also release, but at the vascular endothelial growth factor in relationship to the specific question about Summit, that deep expertise that has developed a lot that I think it's really important for for all us carefully.
我只想強調我們的興趣,並且必須釋放阿爾法,但在與峰會具體問題相關的血管內皮生長因子方面,這種深厚的專業知識已經發展了很多,我認為這對我們所有人來說都非常重要。
And we are watching carefully the ability to turn PFS. and TOS. The other issue is that in China as a health system is a little bit different as to how they they treat individuals, but also the patients here are also different in terms of their responsiveness to Veg F. I would also emphasize that the mix, the experiment that was done in China as an experiment that we would be unable to do.
我們正在仔細觀察轉變 PFS 的能力。和服務條款。另一個問題是,在中國,作為一個健康系統,他們對待個人的方式有點不同,而且這裡的患者對蔬菜 F 的反應也有所不同。做不到的。
For example, in the United States, we would not be able to compare a new combo against Keytruda model for the PD-L1 one through 49% PD-L1, something we would not be able to do because in that situation, the comparator is not monotherapy, but it was 89, KEYNOTE one 89.
例如,在美國,我們無法將 PD-L1 1 到 49% PD-L1 的新組合與 Keytruda 模型進行比較,這是我們無法做到的,因為在這種情況下,比較器是否是單一療法,但它是89,KEYNOTE one 是89。
But broadly speaking, combos will be important combos to deepen. It could go earlier stage will be important. I think vascular endothelial growth factor pathways are important. Iot will be import.
但總的來說,連擊將是需要深化的重要連擊。它可能會進入早期階段,這很重要。我認為血管內皮生長因子途徑很重要。物聯網將進口。
Rash will be important. Adcs will be import. And all of those readouts will come some before 2028, some around 2028 and some will happen after 12. Twenty-eight.
皮疹很重要。 Adc 將會被導入。所有這些讀數將有的在 2028 年之前發布,有的在 2028 年左右發布,有的將在 12 點 28 點之後發布。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Carter Gould with Barclays.
我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的卡特·古爾德。
Carter Gould - Analyst
Carter Gould - Analyst
Thanks for taking the question. Appreciate the additional color on maybe on winning Rivera, can you comment on the impact of stocking in the quarter? And I'm trying to also kind of square up some of your comments around sort of the efforts to work through the sickest patients. Can you help frame for us kind of how far you're all along? Thanks for that. Initial bolus of patients is later-line patients within the store level.
感謝您提出問題。感謝也許贏得裡維拉的額外色彩,您能評論一下本季庫存的影響嗎?我也試著整理你們關於治療病情最嚴重的患者的一些評論。您能幫我們描述一下您目前的進展嗎?謝謝你。最初推注的患者是商店層內的後期患者。
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Caroline Litchfield - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Costa in the quarter, over 80% of the revenue to support demand. And so a very small level of inventory build. And we expect inventory dollars to build over time given the growth that we expect in the product terms of the patients that are being prescribed.
Costa在該季度超過80%的收入用於支援需求。因此庫存的增加量非常小。鑑於我們預期所開處方患者的產品條款會成長,我們預期庫存會隨著時間的推移而增加。
The price product, as Rob noted, a large portion, it's actually about 80% of the patients are on background triple therapy or in combination with the prostacyclin. So we're making really good progress in that segment. At the same time, a large number of physicians have prescribed.
正如 Rob 指出的那樣,價格產品佔很大一部分,實際上大約 80% 的患者正在接受背景三聯療法或與前列環素聯合治療。因此,我們在該領域取得了非常好的進展。同時,大量醫師紛紛開出處方。
Please refer now to patients that are not cycling background therapy, which gives us confidence for the ability to move to the patients who are more dual therapy over time. And we remain confident in the opportunity in line with our high expectations simulation since drive significant commercial benefit for our Company.
現在請參考未進行循環背景治療的患者,這讓我們有信心能夠隨著時間的推移轉向接受更多雙重治療的患者。我們對模擬的高期望值保持信心,因為它為我們公司帶來了巨大的商業利益。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore ISI.
您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Umer Raffat。
Umer Raffat - Analyst
Umer Raffat - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. I have I wanted to focus on guard Bill, just a little more of that was very helpful commentary. Rob, you mentioned $500 million in sales in 3Q and 4Q to China. Which obviously 2 billion run-rate. My question is what Batman?
感謝您提出我的問題。我想把注意力集中在後衛比爾身上,多一點就非常有幫助的評論。 Rob,您提到第三季和第四季對中國的銷售額為 5 億美元。其中顯然有20億的運行率。我的問題是蝙蝠俠是什麼?
Because if so what I mean is inventory sitting atrophy is still something you would need to be worked down in 2025 as well as possible nine valent generic entry cycle competition entry in 2025 as well? Or how do you factor those two dynamics into thinking about the 2025 number of 2 to 3 billion China? Thank you.
因為如果是這樣的話,我的意思是庫存萎縮仍然是您需要在 2025 年解決的問題,以及 2025 年可能的九價通用進入周期競爭進入問題?或者,您如何將這兩個動態因素納入考慮 2025 年中國 2 至 30 億人口的數字中?謝謝。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So if you look at what's happening in the operation, just to give you a sense from an inventory perspective, maybe starting there, if you look at overall inventory levels in China, they did come down and that's taken into account.
是的。因此,如果你看看營運中發生的情況,只是為了從庫存角度給你一個感覺,也許從那裡開始,如果你看看中國的總體庫存水平,它們確實下降了,並且已經考慮在內。
This is for Garda Sierra Gorda still at J. Ray, which frankly remains high, grew slightly, but that was more than offset by reductions in this CDC.s and the points of vaccination. So that's a that's a good sign that we're seeing overall inventories coming down, which also would point to the fact that we're looking at demand, which we're seeing stabilize.
這是對於仍在 J. Ray 的 Garda Sierra Gorda 來說,坦率地說仍然很高,略有增長,但這被 CDC 和疫苗接種點的減少所抵消。因此,這是一個好跡象,表明我們看到整體庫存下降,這也表明我們正在關注需求,我們看到需求趨於穩定。
We think we're at a position now where as we're starting to talk about what we're shipping, our expectation is we are shipping. And so we have been worked and very constructively with your phase to think about this.
我們認為我們現在所處的位置是,當我們開始談論我們正在運送的東西時,我們的期望是我們正在運送。因此,我們一直在非常有建設性地與你們一起思考這個問題。
Both is what we're doing in this year's, frankly, as well as we're continuing to have constructive dialogue around 2025 for intention would be to balance the need to get product into the marketplace to meet the demand that the same time time allowing for geography to bring down over time. So we're very thoughtful in how we're thinking about it.
坦白說,這兩者都是我們今年所做的事情,而且我們將在 2025 年左右繼續進行建設性對話,目的是平衡將產品推向市場的需求,以滿足同時允許的需求隨著時間的推移,地理因素會逐漸減弱。所以我們對於如何思考這個問題非常深思熟慮。
And we've done that take into account our expectations of both the female competitive launch that could come next, but also the opportunity that approval early next year could allow us to have.
我們這樣做既考慮到了我們對接下來可能推出的女性競爭產品的期望,也考慮到了明年初的批准可能為我們帶來的機會。
So all of those factors are in as we think about the two to $3 billion number.
因此,當我們考慮 20 至 30 億美元的數字時,所有這些因素都在其中。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Steve Scala with SG Cowen.
您的下一個問題來自 Steve Scala 和 SG Cowen。
Steve Scala - Analyst
Steve Scala - Analyst
Thank you very much. I mean, all things considered, is that still possible to see global Garda, so growth in 2025? And Rob, you you noted at the start that recovery in China will take time, but it sounds like you have good now because you're giving us two to $3 billion guidance for Garda. So in China, some unclear now that we're waiting for. Thank you.
非常感謝。我的意思是,考慮到所有因素,2025 年全球 Garda 是否仍有可能如此成長?羅布,您一開始就指出中國的復甦需要時間,但聽起來您現在情況不錯,因為您為我們提供了 2 至 30 億美元的 Garda 指導。所以在中國,有些還不清楚,我們正在等待。謝謝。
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Davis - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, what we're talking about taking time is basically to work down the inventory and to then build demand over time so that we can continue to drive that market. We're giving you on what we see as the baseline of China. Our hope is that we'll do better and we're going to put to work in to do better entered, continue to drive long term. I think that what I'm trying to make sure everyone here is this isn't going to be sold next quarter.
好吧,我們所說的花時間基本上是減少庫存,然後隨著時間的推移建立需求,以便我們可以繼續推動市場。我們向您提供我們所認為的中國的基線。我們希望我們能做得更好,我們將努力做得更好,並繼續長期發展。我想我想確保這裡的每個人都不會在下個季度出售它。
It's going to take us through probably 2025 that were thoughtful in how we're doing it. We're working with Jakafi in a constructive manner to do it through. The elements are going to take time because we needed to build the demand. We know the opportunity is there was 120 million female still out there to go after and with potentially 200 million meals with the mail opportunities now to activate that demand to make sure we can drive that business.
大概到 2025 年,我們的做法都會經過深思熟慮。我們正在以建設性的方式與賈卡菲合作以完成這項任務。這些要素需要時間,因為我們需要建立需求。我們知道,機會在於仍有 1.2 億女性需要追求,現在可能有 2 億份餐點和郵寄機會來啟動這一需求,以確保我們能夠推動這項業務。
So that's really what we're focusing on. As far as it relates to Garda sale for 2025, I don't think we really want to get into giving product lines and guidance.
這才是我們真正關注的重點。就 2025 年 Garda 銷售而言,我認為我們並不是真的想提供產品線和指導。
Right now. We were very specific to China because the and I wanted to make sure you know that we saw solid overall growth for Merck because that's important to have context. But beyond that, we normally wouldn't be giving guidance at this point in time.
現在。我們對中國非常具體,因為我想確保您知道我們看到默克公司整體穩健成長,因為了解背景非常重要。但除此之外,我們通常不會在此時提供指導。
Operator
Operator
Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
莫希特·班薩爾 (Mohit Bansal) 與富國銀行 (Wells Fargo)。
Mohit Bansal - Analyst
Mohit Bansal - Analyst
My question is 99 four zero in lung cancer. I see that you have started Phase three trial of.
我的問題是99個四零肺癌。我看到你已經開始了第三階段的試用。
Could you please help us understand what kind of data you have seen in earlier stages, which looks which makes you move into Phase three? I don't think we have seen a lot of data from our side.
您能否幫助我們了解您在早期階段看到了哪些數據,哪些數據看起來促使您進入第三階段?我認為我們沒有看到很多來自我們這邊的數據。
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
Dean Li - Executive Vice President, President - Merck Research Laboratories
So this is Dean. I would just emphasize and I was trying to sort of lay the foundation during the prepared remarks.
這就是迪恩。我只是強調,我試著在準備好的發言中奠定基礎。
I would just recognize that in earlier stage, we have nine approvals and four with OS. that is allows us to drive curative setting combos in a way that is that it is advantageous for the patient and also often uniquely ability for us in this study that you're I think referring to is the announcement of with us Madonna of going back in lung cancer specifically, that one is built around KEYNOTE six 71, which had less Bennett EBIT and is approved.
我只想認識到,在早期階段,我們有九個批准,其中四個與作業系統有關。這使我們能夠以一種對患者有利的方式推動治療性設置組合,並且通常對我們在這項研究中具有獨特的能力,我認為您指的是與我們一起宣布麥當娜重返具體來說,該藥物是圍繞KEYNOTE 6 71 構建的,該藥物的Bennett 息稅前利潤較少,因此獲得批准。
But the interesting thing is in the sort of near Paris operator, followed by surgery, there becomes a situation where we can discern who has a pathological complete response and who doesn't have a pathological complete response.
但有趣的是,在巴黎附近的那種操作者中,手術之後,出現了一種情況,我們可以辨別誰有病理性完全反應,誰沒有病理性完全反應。
And that patient population that pathological complete response there, there is the need and and our ability to provide other combinations combinations in that space. And that is where we're driving the INT. in that situation in lung cancer.
對於病理完全反應的患者群體,我們有必要並且有能力在該空間提供其他組合。這就是我們推動 INT 發展的方向。在肺癌的這種情況下。
Peter Dannenbaum - IR
Peter Dannenbaum - IR
Great. Thanks, Matt, and thank you all for your good questions today. And as always, we're available for follow-ups. Please reach out when you want thicker. Thank you very much.
偉大的。謝謝馬特,也謝謝大家今天提出的好問題。像往常一樣,我們可以進行後續跟進。當您想要更厚的時候請伸出手。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以斷開線路。