MRC Global Inc (MRC) 2015 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to MRC Global's first-quarter earnings conference call.

(Operator Instructions)

As a reminder the conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host Monica Broughton, Investor Relations. Thank you, you may begin.

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the MRC Global first-quarter 2015 earnings call and webcast. We appreciate you joining us. On the call today we have Andrew Lane, Chairman, President and CEO; and Jim Braun, Executive Vice President and CFO.

There will be a replay of today's call available by webcast on our website mrcglobal.com, as well as by phone until May 15, 2015. The dial-in information is in yesterday's release. Later today we expect to file the first-quarter 2015 Form 10-Q, and it will also be available on our website.

Please note, that the information reported on this call speaks as of only today, May 1, 2015. Therefore, you are advised that it the information may no longer be accurate as of the time of replay.

In addition, the comments made by the Management of MRC Global during this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements reflect the current views of the Management of MRC Global; however, MRC Global's actual results could differ materially from those expressed today. You are encouraged to read the Company's SEC filing.

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Andrew Lane.

Thanks, Monica. Good morning and thank you for joining us today on our first-quarter 2015 earnings call and your interest in MRC Global. I will begin with a discussion of the quarters highlights before turning it over to Jim for a detailed financial discussion and I will close with current outlook.

In line with what we communicated at year end, our first-quarter revenue came in at $1.29 billion, down 1% from the same quarter last year and down 15% sequentially. Net income for the quarter was $29 million or $0.28 per diluted share compared to $0.23 per diluted share a year ago. The business generated cash from operations of $116 million this quarter, and we now expect to generate $350 million to $450 million of cash from operations this year. This is up $100 million from our prior expectations.

After capital expenditures, we expect to pay down debt by $300 million to $400 million. In the first quarter of 2015 we paid down debt by $80 million and cash increased $24 million. Our current liquidity at the end of the quarter was $436 million. We will continue to focus on generating cash flow from operations and reducing debt.

A major headwind in the first quarter was the strength of the US dollar. The negative impact to revenue from exchange rates was $46 million in the first quarter of 2015 as compared to last year's first quarter. We expect the annual impact to what be well over $100 million.

We are seeing the benefit from the cost saving measures we have taken. Since the peak of last year, we have reduced our headcount by approximately 500.

We expect an additional reduction in headcount of 100, bringing our total reduction to 600 or 12% from peak employment in 2014. As a result adjusted EBITDA margins were 6.7% for first quarter of 2015 compared to 6.4% in the first quarter of 2014.

We continue to engage with our customers to help them operate more cost efficiently during these challenging times. We have seen some margin pressure in certain product lines, but overall margins have held up reasonably well as evidenced by the quarter's adjusted gross profit of 18.6%. We will continue to work with customers on implementing solutions that are mutually beneficial.

Even though the oil and gas market has been challenging, we continue to gain new business. As previously announced, we signed an integrated supply agreement with California Resources Corporation, which began April 1. We estimate this could yield $25 million to $30 million in revenue in 2015 and increase over time to an estimated $50 million to $70 million per year.

In addition, we were recently awarded a new integrated supply work with Peoples Gas in Florida and renewed our integrated supply agreement with New Mexico Gas, both are subsidiaries of TECO Energy. We will be opening a new branch in Lakeland, Florida to service Peoples Gas, and we expect combined annual revenue to be $16 million to $18 million a year.

Operationally, we are continuing to evaluate the current and forecasted energy markets as we are committed to sizing the business appropriately. We have consolidated or closed six branches in Canada and the US in the first quarter, and have several more branches in North America under review for consolidation in regions where the upstream business has slowed considerably.

While we continue to do thorough reviews for branch openings and closings, expansions and consolidations in the ordinary course of business, these latest actions are in response to the current weaker upstream market conditions. Our hub-and-spoke replenishment model was designed to have this flexibility, as it allows us to relocate, consolidate, open or close branches in response to market conditions without changing the major backbone of our distribution system.

Finally, as you may have read, we recently had some changes to our Board of Directors. First, Peter Boylan, who served the several years on our Board decided not to stand for reelection to allow additional time to focus in his new role as co-Founder, Chairman, President and CEO of Cypress Energy. He has been a valued Board member, and we wish him well in his endeavors.

We are also proud to have recently announced Barbara Duganier as joining our Board of Directors. She has many years of experience in the energy industry as well as strategic functions. Barbara also serves as a Director on Buckeye Partners LP, a midstream company, and has held management positions at Accenture and Arthur Anderson. She is a welcome addition to our Board.

With that, let me turn the call over to Jim to review our financial results.

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Total revenues for the first quarter of 2015 were $1.292 billion, which were down 1% from the first quarter last year and 15% lower sequentially. US revenues were $972 million in the quarter up 2.5% from the first quarter of last year. The improvement over the prior year reflected a $63 million increase in our midstream sector partially offset by a $41 million decline in the upstream sector. If you'll recall, the midstream business experienced a week first quarter last year due to adverse weather conditions and the timing of orders.

The 10% decline in the US upstream business was due to lower oil and gas activity. However, this was favorable relative to the market as the average rig count was down 21% over the same period. Sequentially the US segment sales were down for the fourth quarter by $186 million or 16%, while US segment upstream sales were down $126 million or 26%, in line with the 27% decline in the average US rig count.

Canadian revenues were $119 million in the first quarter, down $47 million or 28% from the first quarter of last year, due primarily to reduced customer spending and the upstream sector. $15 million of the decline was the result of the 11% decline in the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. Sequentially, the Canadian segment sales were down $36 million, or 23% from the fourth quarter of 2014, in line with the Canadian rig count, which was down 23% over the same period.

Internationally, first-quarter revenues were $201 million up almost $10 million or 5% from year ago. The increase was the result of the acquisitions of that MSD and Hypteck, which added $16 million in increment revenue in the first quarter of 2015. This was offset by the impact of the decline in the foreign currencies in the areas where we operate.

Excluding the foreign-currency impact, the international segment reflected organic growth of 13%, due to project work in Europe and midstream pipe sales in Australia. Sequentially, the international segment was up 1% from the fourth quarter.

Now, turning to our results based on end-market sectors. In the upstream sector, first-quarter sales decreased 14% from the same quarter last year to $547 million.

This decrease was driven by lower oil and gas drilling activity. The biggest impact was in Canada where our upstream business declined $53 million or 37%, including the impact of foreign currency. Excluding the impact of foreign currency, the Canadian decline was $41 million or 29%.

Midstream sector sales were $380 million in the first quarter of 2015, an increase of 24% from 2014. Compared to the first quarter of last year, both the transmission and the gas utility sectors were higher by 36% and 7% respectively. The higher sales were due to the impact of weaker sales in the first quarter of last year from inclement weather, better project backlog going into it 2015 than the previous year, and the increased gas utility and transmission customer spending.

In the downstream sector, first-quarter 2015 revenues increased by 1% to $366 million as compared to the first quarter of 2014. The US downstream experienced modest growth as the results were negatively impacted by the strike at 13 US refineries.

Canada experienced growth and there was also some benefit from the acquisitions. However, it was largely offset by a weaker foreign currency and lower sales in our international segment.

Turning to revenue by product class. Our energy carbon steel tubular product sales were $372 million during the first quarter of 2015, with line pipe sales of $266 million and OCTG sales of $106 million. Overall, sales from this product class increased 10% in the first quarter from the same quarter a year ago, including a $59 million or 28% increase in line pipe sales offset by a $25 million or 19% decrease in OCTG. For the first quarter of 2015, 49% of our line pipe sales were within our midstream sector, while upstream and downstream made up 27% and 24% respectively.

Sales of valves, fittings, flanges and other products were $921 million in the first quarter, a 5% decrease from the first quarter of 2014. Sales of valves were down 4% during the quarter. The organic decline was 8% offset by growth of 4% from acquisitions. Sales from fittings and flanges were down 7% for the first quarter last year. Other products were down 4% from the quarter a year ago.

Turning to margins. The gross profit percentage declined 80 basis points to 17% in the first quarter of 2015 from 17.8% in the first quarter of last year. The decrease was due to product mix changes and margin pressure in certain product categories. In the quarter we experienced a higher mix of lower margin line pipe sales. Line pipe sales made up 21% of sales in 2015 as compared to 16% in the first quarter of last year.

Pricing pressure was a result of the market slowdown. The increase in project related work and lower relative stock sales also contributed to lower margins. A LIFO benefit of $200,000 was recorded in the first quarter of 2015 as compared to $1.3 million of expense in the first quarter of 2014.

Sequentially, gross profit percentage improved 60 basis points from the fourth quarter of last year. Our adjusted gross profit percentage, which is gross profit plus depreciation and amortization, the amortization of intangibles and plus or minus the impact of LIFO inventory costing, decreased to 18.6% in the first quarter of 2015 from 19.5% in the first quarter of 2014. On a sequential basis, the first quarter of 2015 adjusted gross profit margin percentage is 50 basis points higher than the fourth quarter of 2014.

SG&A costs for the first quarter of 2015 were $159 million or 12.3% of sales, a decrease of $12 million from $171 million or 13.1% of sales in the first quarter of 2014. We incurred a pretax sever charge of $1.8 million in the first quarter this year related to cost savings initiatives, but no such charges were incurred in the same quarter last year.

SG&A in 2015 also includes $2.9 million related to our MSD and Hypteck acquisitions. Taking both the severance charge and acquisitions into account, SG&A decreased approximately $17 million of which $9 million was due to weaker foreign currencies and the remaining decrease was a result of the cost reduction initiatives we've executed.

Operating income for the first quarter of 2015 was $60 million, flat with first quarter of last year. The operating margin was 4.7% for the first quarter of 2015, which was also flat with last year. This is a function of lower gross profit dollars offset by lower SG&A expenses as described earlier.

Our interest expense totaled $14.6 million in the first quarter of 2015, which was modestly lower than the $15.1 million in the first quarter of 2014. This was due to lower average debt balances.

Adjusted EBITDA was up 3% to $87 million in the first quarter of 2015 versus $84 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 6.7% from 6.4% a year ago.

Our operations generated cash of $116 million in the first quarter 2015. Our working capital at March 31, 2015 was $1.376 billion, $62 million less than it was at December 31, 2014, reflective primarily of lower receivable levels.

Our debt outstanding at March 31, 2015 was $1.373 billion compared to $1.454 billion at the end of 2014, a decrease of $80 million. Our net debt declined $105 (sic - see press release "$105 million") as our cash balances increased over last quarter due to the timing of customer payments.

Our leverage ratio at March 31, 2015 was 3.1 times. Excess availability, as defined in our Global ABL agreement was $386 million at the end of the first-quarter 2015. As we mentioned in our last call, we have a low-cost covenant-like debt structure with favorable terms that should serve us well in this challenging market.

Cash used in investing activities totaled $7 million in the first quarter primarily from capital expenditures. There has been no change to our expectations around capital expenditures since last quarter. We expect to spend $43 million this year. The increase over historic levels relates to the implantation of a new ERP system in certain of our regions of the international segment, and we expect to see capitalization of project costs beginning in the second quarter.

Now, I'll turn it back to Andrew for his closing comments.

Thanks, Jim. We have updated our views on commodities for the remainder of the year, but it isn't substantially different from where we were a couple of months ago when we reported. We now expect that West Texas Intermediate oil will trade around $50 to $60 per barrel, Brent at $55 to $65, and US natural gas around $2.25 to $3.25 per Mcf. We also believe 2015 capital spending in North America should be down 35%, with Canada impacted the most due to higher production and transportation costs. International spending is expected to be 10% to 20% lower for 2015 compared to 2014.

We also expect a decline in rig count of about 1,000 rigs from the peak in 2014, which is 100 to 200 more than we thought just a couple of months ago when we reported. Our upstream business will be impacted the most and will track our customers' lower capital budgets.

While the upstream business has some challenges ahead and that is where most of the discussion tends to gravitate, it is important to recognize the other half of our business, which is relatively stable and less impacted by oil prices. There are several midstream projects still going forward and our gas utility business continues to grow as we gain new customers.

So while the lower upstream spending trends are expected to affect a portion of the midstream business, the overall impact to midstream is expected to be much less than what we expect in the upstream. Finally, we expect the downstream business to be impacted more modestly, since it is operating expense driven and the capital projects are longer term in nature.

Our backlog was $918 million at the end of the first quarter this year, which is 16% less than it was at year end and 27% less than the record high level in September 2014. It is 11% less than what it was for the same quarter a year ago.

The first quarter is expected to be the best quarter of the year, as the upstream activity levels continue to decline. We have not yet seen stabilization in the rig count or a reduced oil production. Until that time, we don't expect marked improvement in the upstream market.

Therefore, we continue to expect the first half of 2015 to be stronger than the back half of the year. Despite this uncertain market outlook, we will remain focused on what we can control, executing our long-term strategy, defending and taking market share, generating cash from operations and deleveraging the balance sheet.

With that, we will now take your questions. Operator?

(Operator Instructions)

Matt Duncan, Stephens.

Good morning, guys, and good job in a tough environment this quarter.

Good morning, Matt. Thank you.

Andy, I want to start by talking about some of the market share shifts that we've seen. You talked about a couple of smaller agreements, but I think you had a couple larger wins recently, too. I believe one was MarkWest and the other was upstream win in California that, I know you guys haven't said, but it looks like it's probably Occidental. Can you talk about the annual impact on revenues of those wins, both in the current environment and in a more normalized environment?

Yes, Matt, for sure. Okay, so the recent wins since December of 2014, we had a nice win with MarkWest. That is a midstream eastern United States operator. I would say that one tend to be around $30 million this year, in 2015. On a normal year, spending at the levels of the last three years, it's a $50 million to $70 million contract.

We've also -- the win in California was California Resource Corporation, which is as you said, a lot of people still referral it to it as Occidental Elk Hills. That was a nice MRO win, also, for us.

The MarkWest was five years. The California Resource Corporation is three years, that's an integrated supply agreement, which adds to our significant footprint we have in California.

Then, we renewed the Marathon contract for five more years. Picked up a smaller Statoil on spare drip contract. Then, we mentioned the TECO Energy two smaller contracts that we picked up in Florida and New Mexico.

I'm very pleased with our competitiveness in this downmarket. We continue to do very well. Some of those contract opportunities are coming to us because we have a lot of positive momentum in the market and a high level of customer service. I think a lot of customers are recognizing that. We see several other opportunities ahead of us in the coming quarters.

Okay, so net-net it sounds like those were adding call it $100 million-ish to this year, and maybe closer to $200 million in a more normal environment, is that a fair characterization, if you add them all up?

Yes, it is.

Next, how should we think about the 2Q relative to the first quarter. I know it's tough to really look into that crystal ball, but obviously rig count fell pretty sharply through the 1Q. So any help you can give us on dialing in roughly what the sequential decline ought to be 2Q verse 1Q would be helpful?

Yes, Matt. It's going to be down and largely because of the upstream activity you mentioned, the rig counts are out. We are an infrastructure company, not a direct rig equipment company, so as we've mentioned on previous calls, our infrastructure spends usually lags rig count changes by a quarter.

I would just characterize in general terms. April was another strong -- we just closed the month, preliminary. April was another strong month for us comparable to the first-quarter run rate. So that is always good to start the quarter.

We will see some impact later in the quarter, primarily from the US upstream market. You'll see the seasonal impact in the second quarter from Canadian breakup that all companies get impacted. Canada will be down sequentially from a level that was already significantly down from the five-year average. You'll see that impacted. I would characterize it in the 5% to 10% sequential range.

Okay, so the total impact is down 5% to 10%. All right, that's helpful.

Then, lastly for me just on cash flow. Last quarter you guys had guided us to $200 million to $300 million of free cash flow, now it's $300 million to $400 million. Jim, is that really a function of the pretty strong collections you guys have this quarter with the big drop in accounts receivable? Or is it something else maybe above and beyond what you'd already expected?

Can you walk through that $300 million to $400 million of free cash flow? How much of that is in inventory draw down versus other things?

You're right, Matt. We had a big draw, a big pull down in receivables, which helped give us some confidence. But as we also looked at the business and we looked at our inventory levels, we're looking to pull those down even more significantly. So between now and the end of the year, the big change that you'll see or the big generation of cash will be from aggressive pull down of inventory.

Okay, so it looks like it's got to be $200 million plus to get into the range?

It's $200 million, $250 million plus to get there.

Matt, it's $350 million to $450 million on cash flow from us and $300 million to $400 million debt pay down.

Right, okay. Great, good job, guys. Thanks.

James West, Evercore.

Just to follow up on that inventory question. How should we think about that pull down of inventory as we go through the year? Is it going to be more back half loaded, or do you think you can flush this out in the second quarter?

You won't see a big drop, but you will see a drop in the second quarter. Essentially just a very small drop -- flat to small drop in the first quarter. That reflects the strong last half of 2014 we had and a decent first quarter.

So you'll see a drop in inventory second quarter, more significant in third and through the fourth. We are confident in that. We moved -- what's really different this cycle, we have a fully global centralized procurement function, and we've responded really quickly from the supply-chain side.

I like where we are. I like the plans. We've got detailed inventory reduction plans with the decrease in activity. So as Jim said, $200 million, $250 million out of that inventory you should start seeing a good chunk of that in the second quarter.

Okay, great. Then, on the midstream and the downstream businesses, have you adjusted your outlook at all for the declines that we're to see there? Or are you still thinking -- obviously, it's going to be more moderate than the rig count decline, but are you still thinking the same numbers you forecast last quarter?

I would say our thinking on midstream -- let's start there -- is the same, maybe a little bit more positive. I think we are still feel the line pipe deflation would be around 10% in that sector, which is a headwind. But volume is good, and so we're seeing, as you'd expect, a decrease in the smaller diameter of gathering infrastructure that's related to the less oil well completions. Where we mentioned at the last call and we still feel confident, there is a number of projects on the gas side and also on the NGL side that are going forward.

It's infrastructure spend, in the transmission side for us, is really positive on the nat gas and a little bit less but still positive on the NGL and then down on the oil. Overall, I'd say volumes are going to be a little bit stronger than we thought, and then in 10% deflation, we feel pretty confident on that.

On the gas utility side, I would say were more bullish on that. That's held up nicely and with our new contract wins, I think that's more of a bright spot for us because it's gas driven.

On downstream, we were up 1% globally year on year. That's in line with what we said, except we would've been up a couple percent more except for the US strikes. A lot of the spring turnarounds that we normally would've seen some activity in March didn't happen this year because of the strike environment. Those are turnarounds got pushed to the fall, and we'll see what happens. We'll either have a really big fall turnaround season combined with the delays from the spring where some of that might get pushed into 2016.

But sequentially we were up 7%. As we've said on previous, we feel good about downstream even in this environment. I think as you've seen a lot of our major customers, their downstream results have been very good compared to upstream reductions. We feel good about refining even better about chemicals.

Those are the bright spots even in this tough end market.

Got you. Just one last one for me. On the midstream side, can you remind us how much of that business is line pipe?

Within the midstream section? About half.

I think it's 47% to 50%, right in there.

Right. Okay, perfect, great. Thanks, guys.

David Manthey, Robert W Baird.

First off on SG&A, as you continue to cut headcount, I would imagine we'll continue to see your operating expenses decline through the year. I'm trying to gauge it in terms of the diminishing returns on that. It sounds like if you've already cut 500, you have another 100 to go, you've already closed six locations, some more coming. I guess the FX is probably the impact lessening going forward, and you mentioned the ERP costs starting up.

As we look forward, should we expect SG&A absolute dollars to continue to decline at a moderating pace, then? Is that way to think about it?

We'll see a little bit more benefit from the headcount reductions. That will be offset to some degree by some of the ERP costs that we're going to be including. As we think about this, we think something in the $160 million range is relatively good for planning purposes.

Okay. Then, from the sound of what you talked about, Andrew, earlier of the first half being better than the second half, it sounds like you're thinking that things will bottom probably in the second half or into 2016? Just correct me if I'm wrong on that?

Second, can you just give us an idea of what you're thinking about in terms of the second half versus the first half in terms of pricing and volumes, anything granular would help?

Okay, Dave. Yes, I do think the rig count that infirma the US rig count will trough early in the third quarter. I think that's where we see the bottom and I think many others are predicting late second quarter, early third quarter. I think that it stabilizes some on the upstream side of the event.

I don't expect a dramatic change from the first half to the second half, so if anyone is predicting that, that's not how we see it. But we do see a lower than the first half, just from the primarily from the US upstream business only.

No huge change across the year in our international business. We see the downstream and midstream being pretty stable through the year. So, yes, the biggest change would be just in the upstream decline in the second half due to the lower rig count level that we think bottoms in the third quarter maybe stays flat there through the fourth quarter.

Great. Thank you very much.

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets. My apologies, Brent Rakers, Thomson Research.

I was hoping you could maybe provide a little bit more color on US upstream in the quarter. Obviously, as you said you fairly significantly outperformed the rig count in the first quarter. Maybe talk about that, the share gain difference with possibly where your products are consumed, maybe a lag-time effect there and what the disconnect might be?

Yes, Randy. I don't think it's too disconnected. Our products are primarily production facility infrastructure not direct rig equipment. And so what is most important to us is the number of well completions that are done. So you see a much closer tie with our upstream revenues in the US to the well completions.

I think even though the rig count was more significant, I think you can look at the number of well completions that were done in the first quarter, down 16%, and that ties more closely to the decline in out US revenues. That is a more important metric for us, Brent.

Then, just as a follow up with that. Do you think that disconnect reflects new customer wins, or that disconnect maybe is your customer mix being more of the majors, more of the integratives, maybe reducing their drilling less than some of the small players?

You're right, it's the latter. Our customer base is -- the IOCs, while they're reducing their upstream spending CapEx, it's a lot more moderate than some of the smaller operators. So the big players in upstream for us are the large independents and the IOCs, and while that group has come down at a much more moderate level.

You are right on that point. It's really the customer mix that we have that makes up our upstream business as ignites. It's down, but that is what's more moderate than the overall market.

Great. Then just final question, within midstream if you can maybe update us on your progress with some of the share gain initiatives surrounding line pipe and maybe some of those 26 to a number of 100 sized customers out there?

Brent, that is a big part of the our improved outlook on the midstream. The gas and NGL are stronger than we saw at the beginning of the year, oil being a little weaker. When you look the mix, we started in the second quarter of 2014 to broaden our customer base in midstream. We have had good progress on that. We are very pleased now, in the down overall spending market, to have a much broader customer base this year than we had at this same time last year in midstream.

That is part of why we had such a good quarter in the first quarter. It's why our outlook in midstream has improved some. We have a much broader base.

Also the Access Midstream and Williams combination was completed last year, and so the one Williams going forward now also brings a -- solidifies our midstream business. Columbia Gas spinning off from NiSourse is a major midstream customer for us. That actually [has] improved the CapEx spending as a separate company.

PG&E and DCP Midstream, all with good programs that we can see for 2015 and 2016. A little bit more visibility than we had at the first quarter of 2014. All those factors, our main customer base have solidified and we have broadened the customer group, are positives for us.

Great. Thank you.

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Maybe if just you talked -- you talked about some areas of deflation. Can you just talk about how deflation in some of the product categories are coming in relative to how (technical difficulties)?

Jeff, I would say, it hasn't changed much from a couple of months ago when we talked about it. Our view today is, the largest impact is in carbon pipe. We see line pipe deflation around 10% this year.

We see OCTG around 15%, and much smaller deflationary impact of low-single digits on the remaining products that we provide. It is environment where you're going to have pressure on carbon pipe, specially in OCTG with the lower demand with the lower rig counts. But our view of the remaining segments of business still is where we were.

As we get into these pricing discussions with customers, we look first to add product lines, add scope to the contracts or add terms to the contract in longer terms, so that we come out of this cycle with a broader product contract position or longer terms on our framework agreements. Those are the things we talk to them about as we talk about pricing in this environment. It's all about building a better base when the cycle turns for us.

Okay, great. Coming back to the upstream decline rate. You've talked about a number of terms were rig count falls out, what you think that the CapEx spend is down 35%., and then the correlation to well completion. But if you tie all that together, I'm just trying to get a better sense of how much you think your business is down relative to that down 35% CapEx? Or, do you have an expectation for how much well completions ultimately are down for the year to better frame your upstream growth rate?

By far, it's the hardest thing to predict at this point. We feel like the rig count is going to bottom here late in the second quarter, early third quarter, but there is a lot of views around that. It is a difficult projection. We feel much more confident projecting the midstream and downstream outcomes for the year at this point.

We will be less than -- the impact on our upstream overall revenues will be less than the overall CapEx decrease. I think we've consistently proven that. It will be more closely tied to the number of completions, and the problem with projecting that at this point is there are a lot of wells being drilled and uncompleted, and that's building a backlog of these type of wells.

We won't see the revenues on that until they do the actual wells hookups, is where we come into that picture. And so it's very difficult to really predict at what price in the commodity side generates some of that backlog of drilled uncompleted wells to be brought back on. So we just have to stay general in our guidance on the upstream.

Okay, helpful. Thanks, Andy.

Thank you.

William Bremer, Maxim Group.

Jim, this is more one for you. Fuel prices, can you give us a sense of how they help it in terms of your distribution, you're truly operating capacity?

We benefit a couple of ways. One is we certainly utilize our own fleet of light-duty trucks and vehicles to deliver goods. We get the benefit of that as the gasoline and diesel prices have come in some. Likewise, for third-party transportation, which we also utilize, the decreases have reduced the fuel surcharges that we saw in high times. It help keeps a lid on overall cost increases on our transportation, but that's where we see it most significant.

Any way to quantify that, Jim?

That is a challenge. It is spread over a lot of branches, a lot of districts. I wouldn't say that it is a huge number, but it is certainly something that is important.

Okay. Andy, can you give us an update on the international front with Stream and Flangefitt and how they are progressing during all the volatility in offshore activity?

A couple of things there. I would say, Bill, that they -- if you look at Europe, it certainly has solidified in Western Europe. I think a couple of things going on there. In late 2014, we completed our Rotterdam regional distribution center, which serves as the hub and spoke now for the European region. Late in the year, we completed our Jebel Ali, the Dubai regional distribution center, which serves our business in Iraq and Qatar and Oman and Saudi. And then, we've just completing a warehouse operation Korea. They're get closer to the fabrication and work that's being done there.

So a lot of our investment in 2014 has been in the infrastructure following the acquisitions we did. We're very pleased with that. Except for the FX headwinds, we would've had a really nice improvement in international growth that we'd expect. A lot of what we're working on in 2015 is to optimize the cost structure based on the investments we've made in facilities and acquisitions to get a higher return from our investment international. You should see that in 2015 and even much improved in 2016.

We feel good about the offshore now that, from our perspective, our offshore business that came with the Stream acquisition is the MRO existing platforms. So where you see some of the headline decreases in offshore, it's in new sub-sea, it's in offshore exploration, and those cutbacks have no impact on us because we are a -- our customer base is on the existing production platforms.

We still feel good about that. Flangefitt is a project focused business, a lot of emphasis on projects in the Middle East. We mentioned on the last call that we had some major projects that slid out of 2014. We yet to recognize those in our results in the first quarter, so you still have that as a upside coming later in the year in the second and third quarter. So we feel really good.

International as a whole segment is down, but to a much lesser extent the North America. Because we're relatively new in that market over the last couple of years, we still see -- the best prospects in the Company for growth are still international for us.

Okay, great. Thanks for the color.

Thank you.

Ryan Merkel, William Blair

Good morning, again, nice quarter.

Thank, Ryan. Good morning.

I wanted to start with gross margins because they came in a lot better than at least I was thinking, and I'm assuming a lot of people on the call as well. Going forward, should we think about that being a stable margin or should we be having that tick down a bit because mix and potentially revenues declining could put a little more pressure there?

I think the revenue mix is going to be the biggest driver of the margins as we move forward. As we continue to do more pipe, and we see strength in the midstream and we strength in our project business, those will be things that will tend to push margins down some. I think we're in a pretty good range right now, and we've done a nice job of holding on, on the price side. So as we go forward, we're looking to be somewhere in this 18% range, maybe 18.2% to 18.8%, something like that.

Ryan, I would just add to Jim's comments. One of the things we're going to do through the cycle is continue what we've started over the last couple of years of rebalancing the Company, so you'll see us even more heavily weighted towards our valves, our automation. We're getting into expanded control valves and instrumentation business and also we're focused on fittings, carbon fittings, flanges and also stainless and nickel products.

So we'll come out of 2015 with more higher weightings to those higher-margin products and a less weighting to carbon pipe. While we have the deflationary impact in 2015 that Jim's mentioned on line pipe and OCTG, it's going to be continuing the trend we've had for a couple of years, smaller percent of our overall mix.

Okay, good. That's pretty encouraging. Okay, then the next question. I know you didn't change your CapEx outlook on the upstream, but any change in customer tone with oil prices stabilizing a bit here? I know it's early, but any change in thinking that maybe this year isn't as bad as we all thought in February?

I think the tone is moderated. The integrated -- our major customers that are integrated, of course, have the benefits on the downstream business, and that has helped them and you've seen that in their results.

I still think what's happened since January/February thinking, the discipline -- a couple of things that happened. The discipline on the rig count drop has been significant. The decline in the US drilling rigs is the fastest and steepest decline of any cycle in the last 20 years. So certainly we're getting to the bottom quicker, which is a positive.

And you've seen the commodity price. We've gone from a $42 West Texas Intermediate to $59 today. That certainly is a positive in general. But I would say our customers are still taking a very conservative look for this year.

The very quick reaction and decrease in drilling count, I think will have a more positive impact late in 2015, where a lot of people I may think were in January and February probably thought it was going to be more impact in 2016. It certainly is not a huge positive, but the real negative views are not becoming, playing out that way.

The other big thing for our business, I think you've seen a much quicker reaction than any previous cycle from the steel mills. You've seen significant changes in capacity with our major partners, the Tenaris, the US Steel, the TMK Ipsco, a lot of them cutting costs and cutting capacity early in the cycle, which didn't happen the last cycle, is a real positive for when things do get better and if demand stays strong in midstream, you are going to not see the real negative view that some people held on carbon pipe. And that's a lot because of the mills taking really quick action.

The steep record decline in rigs and the actions on the steel mill, from our point of view, while it's not a hugely positive environment as you'd expect, I think it takes away the real negative low side of thinking.

Thanks, Andy. That is really helpful. I will defer to others. Thanks.

Walter Liptak, Global Hunter.

I wanted to ask a follow up on pricing. You've gone into that a little bit already, but in the midstream and downstream, are you getting the same magnitude of the pricing pressure? I guess specifically for downstream, are you getting pricing pressure there?

Yes, I would say in downstream -- across the industry as a general comment, yes, there's pressure. With lower commodity pricing, everyone is focused on cost reduction and pricing.

I would say on refining we went through a strike period. Now we are in a heavy driving season, so they're going to be at high utilization. There's a lot less focus on that in the downstream. Chemicals is, with a low natural gas price, is a growth end market for us, so you don't see it in that area as much.

Mostly it's in midstream. There, -- but It hasn't changed dramatically from our thinking of the 10%. The positive side of midstream, of course, you don't have that huge focus on costs in the gas utility side. But in the transmission side, with the reductions in the steel mill capacity, that goes a long way to help balance the supply/demand side there.

What we've seen on the large diameter pipe, I talked a little bit about at the beginning, the natural gas and NGL, we see that as a positive for 2015 and 2016. And we've talked about a couple years of good gas and large-diameter infrastructure spend.

If you think about the DSAW, the pipe that -- there's only two big mills in the United States that produce the straight welded design. You have some of those sizes booked out into 2016 already. I think the positive in that sector, of course, with those kind of lead times there's not as much pressure on pricing in those large diameter pipelines. There is a lot of pressure on the small diameter 2-, 4-, 6-inch small size oil gathering system infrastructure.

Okay, great. Thanks for that color. Along those lines and the conversation about the bottoming in the third quarter for the rigs. With this cycle, your benefiting from midstream and downstream stability, but do we follow, like in 2016, down? If upstream is down big in the back half, do you then go down in 2016 in mid or down just because the projects get -- there's real projects that come into fruition this year for next year?

No, my view today is not like that. I would say it flattens for upstream, so we might start 2016 at the level you're at in third and fourth quarter. Improvement in pricing on the commodity side, of course, change that to be -- could potentially be more positive.

I think the midstream infrastructure in large extent is decoupled from that. If these number of wells drilled and the backlog of drilled uncompleted wells starts coming on production because of improvement in commodity pricing, you're going to see a nice catalyst for us in a backlog of well hookups, which is where we participate. I think that could have a positive, but I don't see another leg down on midstream and downstream. We just don't see that view.

The bigger thing is we do see growth in 2016 in our international business because in the last cycle we essentially had no business internationally in 2008, a very small part 2009, so our business there in international still brings is a lot of growth in primarily in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Okay, sounds good. Maybe just a last real quick. With that outlook in the cash flow looking at little bit better, where do you stand now with acquisitions? Is it unchanged?

I would say in the short term it is not a focus. In the next two quarters, I would say two to three quarters, would, on a strategy and a plan to delever and then pull the $350 million to $450 million cash flow from ops this year. Certainly, we're positioned in the Company, should the outlook improve and commodity pricing improve a little bit, if we're earlier in 2016 than maybe we originally thought, we certainly want to put ourselves in a position as we have done over many years to be a consolidator.

So that is not the focus in the near term, you shouldn't expect to see any acquisitions from us in the near term, but we certainly are going to get ourselves in the position, if a prime acquisition at low valuations are there in the first half of 2016. We certainly would want to be in a position to look at those.

Okay. It sounds great, thank you.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Monica Broughton for closing remarks

This concludes our call today. Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and thank you for your interest in MRC Global. Have a great day.

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