芯源系統 (MPWR) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Bernie Blegen, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. 2018 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示) 提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給副總裁兼財務長 Bernie Blegen。請開始。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2018 Monolithic Power Systems Conference Call.

謝謝。各位下午好，歡迎參加 Monolithic Power Systems 2018 年第三季電話會議。

In the course of today's conference call, we will make forward-looking statements and projections that involve risk and uncertainty, which could cause results to differ materially from management's current views and expectations. Please refer to the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release published today. Risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause the actual results to differ are identified in the safe harbor statements contained in the Q3 earnings release and in our SEC filings included in our Form 10-K filed on March 1, 2018, and Form 10-Q filed on August 2, 2018, both of which are accessible through our website, www.monolithicpower.com. MPS assumes no obligation to update the information provided on today's call.

在今天的電話會議過程中，我們將作出涉及風險與不確定性的前瞻性陳述與預測，這些因素可能導致結果與管理層目前的觀點與預期出現重大差異。請參閱今日發布之財報新聞稿中所載的安全港聲明。可能導致實際結果不同的風險、不確定性及其他因素，已在第三季財報新聞稿的安全港聲明以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中加以說明，包括 2018 年 3 月 1 日提交的 Form 10-K 與 2018 年 8 月 2 日提交的 Form 10-Q；上述文件可透過我們的網站 www.monolithicpower.com 查閱。MPS 不承擔更新今日電話會議所提供資訊的任何義務。

We will be discussing gross margin, operating expense, R&D and SG&A expense, operating income, interest and other income, net income and earnings on both a GAAP and on a non-GAAP basis. These non-GAAP financial measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. A table that outlines the reconciliation between the non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings release, which we have filed with the SEC. I would refer investors to the Q3 2017, Q2 2018 and Q3 2018 earnings releases as well as to the reconciling tables that are posted on our website.

我們將討論毛利率、營業費用、研發與銷售及管理（SG&A）費用、營業利益、利息及其他收入、淨利以及每股盈餘，並同時以 GAAP 與非 GAAP 基礎呈現。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標並非依 GAAP 編製，不應被視為 GAAP 財務績效衡量指標的替代品或更優指標。我們的財報新聞稿（已向 SEC 提交）中包含一份表格，說明非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與 GAAP 財務衡量指標之間的調節。我建議投資人參閱 2017 年第三季、2018 年第二季及 2018 年第三季的財報新聞稿，以及張貼於我們網站上的調節表。

I'd also like to remind you that today's conference call is being webcast live over the Internet and will be available for replay on our website for 1 year, along with the earnings release filed with the SEC earlier today.

我也想提醒各位，今天的電話會議將透過網際網路進行即時網路直播，並將在我們網站上提供 1 年的重播，同時也會提供今日稍早向 SEC 提交的財報新聞稿。

Let me start by saying -- by telling everyone that our Q3 2018 quarterly revenue of $160.0 million established another record for MPS, our fifth high-water mark for quarterly revenue in the last 6 quarters. Likewise, non-GAAP gross margin grew 10 basis points sequentially, representing the 12th consecutive quarter MPS' non-GAAP gross margin has either expanded or matched the prior quarter's performance. As expected, we reached $160 million revenue milestone, reflecting strength in each of our targeted market segments: Q3 revenue for computing and storage up 64% year-over-year; automotive up 54%; and industrial up 52%.

首先我想說——告訴大家，我們 2018 年第三季季度營收為 1.600 億美元，再次創下 MPS 的新紀錄，這是過去 6 個季度中第 5 次創下季度營收新高。同樣地，非 GAAP 毛利率較前一季成長 10 個基點，這是 MPS 非 GAAP 毛利率連續第 12 個季度擴張或持平於前一季表現。如預期，我們達成 1.6 億美元營收里程碑，反映我們各個目標市場區隔皆具強勁動能：第三季運算與儲存營收年增 64%；車用年增 54%；工業年增 52%。

During the quarter, MPS did experience some unexpected softness in high-volume consumer-related businesses, especially in the Greater China region. However, we still see high demand for these products and remain optimistic in our prospects for high-end consumer products. We also gained market share in low-end communications segment. We will stay opportunistic in these high-volume businesses and focus on growing higher-margin products.

在本季度，MPS 的確在高出貨量的消費相關業務上出現一些意外的疲弱，尤其是在大中華地區。然而，我們仍看到這些產品的高需求，並對高階消費性產品的前景保持樂觀。我們也在低階通訊市場區隔取得市占率提升。我們將在這些高出貨量業務上保持機會主義，同時專注於成長毛利率較高的產品。

Looking at our revenue by end market. In our computing and storage market, revenue of $47.7 million increased $18.6 million or 64.2% year-over-year. Growth in the market was broad-based when compared to the year-ago quarter with all applications, high-end notebooks, cloud computing and storage increasing at rates well above the market average. Computing and storage revenue represented 30% of MPS' third quarter 2018 revenue compared with 23% in Q3 2017.

接著看按終端市場劃分的營收。在運算與儲存市場方面，營收 4,770 萬美元，較去年同期增加 1,860 萬美元或 64.2%。相較去年同期，本市場成長動能廣泛，所有應用領域——高階筆電、雲端運算與儲存——的成長率均遠高於市場平均。運算與儲存營收占 MPS 2018 年第三季營收的 30%，而 2017 年第三季為 23%。

Third quarter 2018 industrial revenue of $24.9 million increased $8.5 million or 52.1% from the third quarter of 2017, primarily due to increased sales for applications in power sources, meters and security. This market represented 16% of our total third quarter revenue versus 13% in the prior year.

2018 年第三季工業營收為 2,490 萬美元，較 2017 年第三季增加 850 萬美元或 52.1%，主要由於電源、電表與安防等應用的銷售增加。該市場占我們第三季總營收的 16%，而去年同期為 13%。

Third quarter automotive revenue of $19.8 million grew $6.9 million or 53.9% over the same period of 2017 as a result of increased sales of infotainment, safety and connectivity application products. Automotive is MPS' largest TAM opportunity at $7 billion, and we're in early stages of penetrating this market. In the years ahead, we plan to offer a number of new products for applications in body control, lighting, infotainment, ADAS and battery management. Automotive revenue was 12% of MPS' total Q3 2018 revenue compared with 12% for Q3 2017.

第三季車用營收為 1,980 萬美元，較 2017 年同期增加 690 萬美元或 53.9%，係因資訊娛樂、安全與連網應用產品銷售增加所致。車用是 MPS 最大的 TAM（可服務總市場）機會，規模約 70 億美元，而我們仍處於切入該市場的早期階段。未來幾年，我們計畫推出多款新產品，應用於車身控制、照明、資訊娛樂、ADAS 與電池管理。車用營收占 MPS 2018 年第三季總營收的 12%，與 2017 年第三季的 12% 相同。

Third quarter communications revenue of $19.2 million increased $3.8 million or 24.6% over the same period in 2017. This represents a combination of share gains in our legacy markets and initial ramping in products for the 3G -- for the 5G network. Revenue from consumer markets of $48.5 million decreased $6.8 million or 12.4% from the third quarter of 2017. Consumer revenue accounted for 30% of our total Q3 revenue compared with 43% in the prior year. While loss of revenue in these high-volume consumer markets is likely a reflection of geopolitical or trade policy changes, we did not lose projects and continued to gain market share.

第三季通訊營收為 1,920 萬美元，較 2017 年同期增加 380 萬美元或 24.6%。這反映我們在既有市場的市占提升，以及 3G——以及 5G 網路相關產品的初期放量。消費市場營收為 4,850 萬美元，較 2017 年第三季減少 680 萬美元或 12.4%。消費營收占第三季總營收的 30%，而去年同期為 43%。雖然這些高出貨量消費市場的營收下滑，可能反映地緣政治或貿易政策變化，但我們並未失去專案，且持續提升市占率。

GAAP gross margin was 55.6%, 10 basis points higher than the second quarter of 2018 and 60 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2017. Our GAAP operating income was $33.5 million compared to $24.9 million reported in the second quarter of 2018 and $23.8 million reported in the third quarter of 2017. For the third quarter of 2018, non-GAAP gross margin was 56.1%, 10 basis points higher than second quarter of 2018 and 40 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2017. Our non-GAAP operating income was $49.2 million compared to $41.4 million reported in the prior quarter and $38.9 million reported in the third quarter of 2017.

GAAP 毛利率為 55.6%，較 2018 年第二季高 10 個基點，較 2017 年第三季高 60 個基點。GAAP 營業利益為 3,350 萬美元，相較 2018 年第二季的 2,490 萬美元，以及 2017 年第三季的 2,380 萬美元。2018 年第三季非 GAAP 毛利率為 56.1%，較 2018 年第二季高 10 個基點，較 2017 年第三季高 40 個基點。非 GAAP 營業利益為 4,920 萬美元，相較前一季的 4,140 萬美元，以及 2017 年第三季的 3,890 萬美元。

Let's review our operating expenses. Our GAAP operating expenses were $55.5 million in the third quarter compared with $52.7 million in the second quarter of 2018 and $47.0 million in the third quarter of 2017. Our non-GAAP third quarter 2018 operating expenses were $40.5 million, up from the $36.9 million we set in the second quarter of 2018 and up from $32.9 million reported in the third quarter of 2017. On both a GAAP and a non-GAAP basis, third quarter litigation expenses were $343,000 compared with a $639,000 expense in Q2 of 2018 and a $327,000 expense in Q3 2017.

接著檢視我們的營業費用。第三季 GAAP 營業費用為 5,550 萬美元，相較 2018 年第二季的 5,270 萬美元，以及 2017 年第三季的 4,700 萬美元。2018 年第三季非 GAAP 營業費用為 4,050 萬美元，高於我們 2018 年第二季的 3,690 萬美元，也高於 2017 年第三季的 3,290 萬美元。無論以 GAAP 或非 GAAP 基礎計算，第三季訴訟費用為 34.3 萬美元，相較 2018 年第二季的 63.9 萬美元，以及 2017 年第三季的 32.7 萬美元。

The difference between non-GAAP operating expenses and GAAP operating expenses for the quarters discussed here are stock compensation expense and income or loss from an unfunded deferred compensation plan. Total stock compensation, including $471,000 charged to cost of goods sold, for the third quarter of 2018 was $14.8 million compared with $15.9 million reported in the second quarter of 2018.

此處所討論各季度之非 GAAP 營業費用與 GAAP 營業費用之差異，主要在於股票薪酬費用，以及未提撥資金之遞延薪酬計畫所產生的收益或損失。2018 年第三季股票薪酬總額（包含計入銷貨成本的 471,000 美元）為 1,480 萬美元，較 2018 年第二季所報告的 1,590 萬美元為低。

Switching to the bottom line. Third quarter 2018 GAAP net income was $31.6 million or $0.71 per fully diluted share compared with $0.55 per share in the second quarter of 2018 and $0.54 per share in the third quarter of 2017. Q3 non-GAAP net income was $47.3 million or $1.06 per fully diluted share compared with $0.90 per share in the second quarter of 2018 and $0.84 per share in the third quarter of 2017. Fully diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q3 2018 were 44.7 million.

接著看最終損益。2018 年第三季 GAAP 淨利為 3,160 萬美元，或每股完全稀釋後 0.71 美元，相較於 2018 年第二季每股 0.55 美元，以及 2017 年第三季每股 0.54 美元。第三季非 GAAP 淨利為 4,730 萬美元，或每股完全稀釋後 1.06 美元，相較於 2018 年第二季每股 0.90 美元，以及 2017 年第三季每股 0.84 美元。截至 2018 年第三季末，完全稀釋後流通在外股數為 4,470 萬股。

Now let's look at the balance sheet. Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $353.1 million at the end of the third quarter of 2018 compared to $318.7 million at the end of the second quarter of 2018. For the quarter, MPS generated operating cash flow of about $52.2 million compared with Q2 2018 operating cash flow of $25.4 million. Third quarter 2018 capital spending totaled $5.1 million. Accounts receivable ended the third quarter of 2018 at $59.9 million or 34 days of sales outstanding compared with the $53.5 million or 35 days reported at the end of the second quarter of 2018 and the $50.8 million or 36 days reported in the third quarter of 2017.

現在我們來看資產負債表。截至 2018 年第三季末，現金、約當現金及投資為 3.531 億美元，相較於 2018 年第二季末的 3.187 億美元。本季 MPS 產生的營運現金流約為 5,220 萬美元，相較於 2018 年第二季營運現金流 2,540 萬美元。2018 年第三季資本支出合計 510 萬美元。2018 年第三季末應收帳款為 5,990 萬美元，或銷售天數（DSO）34 天；相較於 2018 年第二季末的 5,350 萬美元或 35 天，以及 2017 年第三季的 5,080 萬美元或 36 天。

Our internal inventories at the end of the third quarter of 2018 were $136.8 million, up from the $128.9 million at the end of the second quarter of 2018. Days of inventory decreased to 175 days at the end of Q3 2018 from the 189 days at the end of the second quarter of 2018. Days of inventory are in our range -- days of inventory are in our new range reflecting changing customer requirements, particularly in automotive and computing and our new product introductions.

截至 2018 年第三季末，我們內部庫存為 1.368 億美元，高於 2018 年第二季末的 1.289 億美元。截至 2018 年第三季末，庫存天數降至 175 天，較 2018 年第二季末的 189 天下降。庫存天數落在我們的區間內——庫存天數也落在我們新的區間內，該區間反映客戶需求的變化，特別是在車用與運算領域，以及我們的新產品導入。

Turning now to our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2018. We are forecasting Q4 revenue in the range of $151 million to $157 million. We also expect the following: GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.2% to 56.2%; non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 55.6% to 56.6%; totals of stock-based compensation expense of $13.5 million to $15.5 million, including approximately $500,000 that would be charged to cost of goods sold; GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses between $50.6 million and $55.6 million; non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses to be in the range of $37.6 million to $40.6 million. This estimate excludes stock compensation and litigation expenses. Other income is expected to range from $1 million to $1.2 million before foreign exchange gains or losses. Fully diluted shares to be in the range of 44.6 million to 45.6 million shares.

接著談我們對 2018 年第四季的展望。我們預估第四季營收介於 1.51 億至 1.57 億美元。我們亦預期如下：GAAP 毛利率介於 55.2% 至 56.2%；非 GAAP 毛利率介於 55.6% 至 56.6%；以股票為基礎之薪酬費用合計 1,350 萬至 1,550 萬美元，其中約 50 萬美元將計入銷貨成本；GAAP 研發與銷售、一般及行政（SG&A）費用介於 5,060 萬至 5,560 萬美元；非 GAAP 研發與 SG&A 費用介於 3,760 萬至 4,060 萬美元。此估計不包含股票薪酬與訴訟費用。其他收益預期在扣除外匯損益前介於 100 萬至 120 萬美元。完全稀釋後股數預期介於 4,460 萬至 4,560 萬股。

In conclusion, as expected, we continue to execute according to our plan of diversification in both products and geographical markets. We grew in greenfield segments while gaining share in high-value products in consumer communications amongst the uncertainty in the market and geopolitical environment.

總結而言，如同預期，我們持續依照在產品與地理市場雙向多元化的計畫執行。在市場與地緣政治環境不確定之下，我們於綠地（greenfield）領域成長，同時在消費性通訊的高價值產品中提升市占。

I will now open the phone lines up for questions.

我現在開放電話線供提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Ramsay。

Congratulations on a strong set of results with a lot of uncertainty out there. The question that we've been getting the most often is, there's a lot of new content growth and market share gains that are embedded into the long-term forecast that investors have for your company across a number of businesses. Maybe, Michael, you can talk about at a high level how you're progressing there and then just juxtapose that against a lot of concerns about a weaker macro environment. Just I know that folks have an expectation of 20% growth for your company over the next couple of years, and we're just trying to understand the risks associated with that versus the opportunities for share gains.

在外部充滿不確定性的情況下，恭喜你們交出一組強勁的成績。我們最常被問到的問題是：投資人對你們公司在多個業務上的長期預測中，已經納入了大量的新內容成長與市占提升。也許 Michael，你可以從較高層次談談你們目前的進展，並把它與外界對總體環境轉弱的諸多疑慮做個對照。我知道市場普遍預期你們公司未來幾年可有 20% 的成長，我們只是想了解其中的風險相對於市占提升機會各是什麼。

All right, okay. As you know, yes, we're not in a position to answer what the macro position is, and that we only heard from the -- from you guys. And we have a very small percentage of a market share, particularly in those greenfield market segments such as auto and data centers and as well as the industrial side. And we have a very little market segment. Those segments should be relatively immune to what the market condition is, and we expect it to grow in -- according to our plans. And in the next few years, we are all set.

好的，沒問題。如你所知，是的，我們無法回答總體環境會如何，我們也只是從——從你們那邊聽到一些看法。而且我們的市占比重其實很小，特別是在車用、資料中心以及工業等這些綠地市場區隔。我們在那些市場區隔的占比非常小。這些區隔相對而言應該不太受市場狀況影響，我們預期會——依照我們的計畫持續成長。而在接下來幾年，我們都已經準備就緒。

I think one point to add to that is that we're continuing to be very aggressive as far as securing new design wins and that as we've said in our prepared comments, that while there has been a downturn that's reflected most in our consumer business, we didn't lose market share. And in fact, we continued net gains.

我想補充一點：我們在爭取新的設計導入（design wins）方面仍然非常積極；而且如同我們在事先準備的評論中所說，雖然消費性業務反映出較明顯的下滑，但我們並沒有流失市占。事實上，我們仍持續取得淨增加。

Now that commentary is really, really helpful. And I guess as a follow-up, I've spent a decent amount of time with my team digging into the programmable aspects of many of your solutions as you sort of bring programmability into the portfolio. Michael, maybe you can talk a little bit about at a high level what percentage of the products that you're shipping now and winning designs with and then -- I guess second winning designs with are programmable in nature today and how you might see that trend going forward and what that might mean for market share.

這些說明真的非常有幫助。我想追問一下：我和團隊花了不少時間深入研究你們許多解決方案中的可程式化（programmable）面向，因為你們正把可程式化能力納入產品組合。Michael，也許你可以從高層次談談，目前你們出貨的產品中，以及——我想第二個是你們贏得設計導入的產品中，今天有多少比例本質上是可程式化的；以及你如何看待這個趨勢未來的走向，並且這對市占可能意味著什麼。

All right, okay. At this point, still probably single-digit percentage of our total revenues and we expect quadruple in the next couple of years. And probably most likely in the 4, 5 years, 100% of our products would be programmable.

好的，沒問題。就目前而言，可能仍只占我們總營收的個位數百分比，我們預期在未來幾年會成長到四倍。而且很可能在 4、5 年內，我們 100% 的產品都將是可程式化的。

Our next question comes from Rick Schafer with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Rick Schafer。

So maybe -- obviously, auto and industrial up 50 -- each up 50%-plus in the quarter. I think the auto business is tracking to something north of $80 million this year. Mostly, it's been infotainment. And I think now you're starting to see lighting and motor control start to ramp. Maybe you could walk us through what that next leg of growth there looks like. I know, Michael, you talked a lot about having 2, 3 years of really solid visibility there. I'm curious, as ADAS and BMS wins ramp, kind of, a, what the time line looks there and then what we could see for a margin impact. I guess when would we start to see sort of a noticeable margin impact within that auto business?

所以也許——很明顯地，車用與工業在本季都成長 50% 以上。我認為車用業務今年的規模可望超過 8,000 萬美元。過去主要是車載資訊娛樂（infotainment）。而我想你們現在開始看到照明與馬達控制開始放量。也許你們可以帶我們走一遍，說明那裡下一段成長曲線會是什麼樣子。我知道 Michael 你談到那邊有 2、3 年非常扎實的能見度。我想了解的是，當 ADAS 與 BMS 的設計導入開始放量時，大概的時間軸會是如何？以及我們可能看到的毛利影響會是什麼？也就是說，我們大概何時會開始在車用業務中看到較明顯的毛利影響？

Even if I talk about infotainment, we still scratch the surface. We just started periphery. And as we just went through the auto business, the deep dive in the auto segments, and we're just starting it. Even in those -- in the infotainment. And for next couple of years, we have all these products designing such as the lighting, including headlights, and also, as Bernie said earlier, the body controls, like in the models and any kind of moving pieces in a car. We have electronic control. And we have those products designed in ADAS. I see it in 3 years out. And all these activities in a week, we have to pick and choose, which product we want to do. And we just don't have enough people. And our name is out. Our product reputation is out. And we are proven to be a quality supply, and so the margin will be -- stay the same as now or even a bit higher.

即使我談到車載資訊娛樂，我們也仍然只是觸及皮毛。我們才剛開始做周邊。而且就像我們剛走過汽車業務、對汽車各細分領域做了深入探討一樣，我們也才剛開始而已。即便是在那些——在資訊娛樂方面也是如此。而在接下來幾年，我們有所有這些產品在設計中，例如照明（包含頭燈），以及如 Bernie 先前提到的車身控制，例如在車型上以及車內任何可動部件。我們有電子控制。而且我們也有那些在 ADAS 中設計的產品。我看到這會在 3 年後體現出來。而這一週內的所有這些活動，我們必須取捨，選擇我們想做哪一個產品。而我們就是人手不足。而且我們的名聲已經打出去了。我們的產品口碑也已經建立。我們已被證明是高品質的供應商，因此毛利率將會——維持在目前水準，甚至略高一些。

Got it. And maybe switching gears to e-commerce. I know it's something that a lot of people care about with you guys. Maybe start with any customer feedback or what the feedback has been from customers so far. I know you've talked about adding hundreds of customers there. I know you've also talked about, I believe, first revenues or material revenues sort of in 2020. I guess I'm curious, to smaller customers that e-commerce would be targeting, I mean, do they need to go through a full call like some of your more established, larger customers? And I guess what I'm getting at is, could we see revenues in e-commerce kind of pull forward? Could we see those start to hit before 2020?

了解。那也許換個話題談電商。我知道這是很多人對你們很關心的事情。也許先從客戶回饋開始，或是到目前為止客戶的回饋如何。我知道你們提過那邊新增了數百位客戶。我也知道你們提過，我記得是 2020 年會有第一筆營收或是具規模的營收。我想我好奇的是，對於電商所鎖定的較小型客戶而言，他們是否需要像你們一些更成熟、規模更大的客戶那樣，走完整的洽談流程？我想我想問的是，電商的營收是否可能提前發生？我們是否可能在 2020 年之前就看到這些營收開始進來？

Very possible. Particularly those smaller customers in the industrial shops, they buy 10,000 to 20,000 units a year. And those ones are -- those are the customers. And if we have -- if we proved to be a quality supply, they will stay with us for years. And so those ones are just starting now, okay. So in terms of how their feedback is, so far, our website is still -- it's up. And it's not -- we still have a lot more to do, and particularly under the e-commerce market segments, and how do we do digital marketing. And we start to do this it year and early next year. You will see some significant changes. In terms of the current feedback, so far, we hand them a floppy disk and they download it. Almost every one of them, they're very happy. They want to see more of these types of products. And what can I say, every one of them, we have -- in recent months, we gained a few -- more than a few hundred customers. And most of them said they wanted these kind of products.

非常有可能。特別是那些工業店面的較小型客戶，他們一年買 10,000 到 20,000 個單位。而那些就是——那些就是客戶。而如果我們——如果我們證明自己是高品質供應，他們就會跟我們合作很多年。所以那些客戶現在才剛開始，好嗎。至於他們的回饋如何，到目前為止，我們的網站仍然——已經上線。而且它還不是——我們還有很多事情要做，特別是在電商的市場區隔，以及我們要如何做數位行銷。我們會在今年開始做，並延續到明年初。你會看到一些顯著的改變。就目前的回饋而言，到目前為止，我們給他們一張軟碟，讓他們下載。幾乎每一位都非常滿意。他們想看到更多這類型的產品。我能說的是，最近幾個月，我們新增了幾位——不只幾百位客戶。而且大多數人都說他們想要這類產品。

And have you seen any competitive response from some of the larger HPA guys?

那你們有看到一些較大型 HPA 業者的競爭性回應嗎？

I think these are -- we address the very segment of the market, and we don't see any other players that do a similar thing as we do.

我認為這些是——我們鎖定的是市場中非常特定的一個區隔，而我們沒有看到其他玩家在做與我們類似的事情。

Our next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham.

下一個問題來自 Needham 的 Quinn Bolton。

Congratulations again on the very steady execution. Michael, Bernie, just wanted to sort of address, I guess, one of the biggest investor fears I hear is kind of the order rates declining in the China region. Can you give us any sense whether those order rates -- it sounds like they started to decline late summer, whether that stabilized or are they still sort of on a downward trend? And maybe just address the -- sort of where you are in terms of starting backlog looking into the fourth quarter of 2018. I think the last few quarters, you'd gone into the quarter with nearly 100% plan in backlog. And then maybe a couple of product follow-ups.

再次恭喜你們非常穩健的執行。Michael、Bernie，我想先談一下，我猜，我聽到投資人最大的擔憂之一，是中國地區的下單率在下降。你們能否提供一些看法：那些下單率——聽起來它們在夏末開始下滑——是否已經穩定下來，還是仍然處於下行趨勢？另外也請談談——你們在 2018 年第四季展望中，期初積壓訂單（backlog）的狀況大概如何。我想過去幾季，你們進入季度時，積壓訂單幾乎已經覆蓋了計畫的 100%。然後也許再追問幾個產品相關的問題。

Sure. I think that you can see from the Q3 numbers that -- and again, the comments that we referenced that in the Greater China market, that we did see a downturn in demand, particularly for consumer. And so as a result of that, we are sort of monitoring to see if that branches out into our other end markets or if there are any changes in ordering pattern. You referenced also our last 3 quarters as far as what our experience has been with backlog going into the quarter. And in fact, what we've seen in this quarter is that we've sort of returned to a more normalized level where we're not at the accelerated pattern that we've been experiencing previously. But the -- it's really, again, returned to a more normalized backlog for this time in the quarter. So it's something that we have to continue to monitor. And certainly, as there are different developments, we have demonstrated the ability to respond to that. But I think the thing that is most encouraging for us is that the targeted areas that we focused on, again, the automotive, the computing and storage and the industrial, where they have long ordering visibility that those remain very solid and that we're just seeing gains that are significantly better than market.

當然。我想你可以從第三季的數字看到——而且再次呼應我們提到的大中華市場評論——我們確實看到需求下滑，特別是在消費端。因此，我們正在監控這是否會擴散到其他終端市場，或是下單模式是否有任何變化。你也提到我們過去三個季度在進入季度時的積壓訂單經驗。事實上，我們在本季度看到的是，我們某種程度上回到了較正常的水準，不再是先前所經歷的那種加速模式。但——這確實是回到這個季度時點較正常的積壓訂單水準。所以這是我們必須持續監控的事情。而且當然，若有不同的發展，我們已經展現出能夠因應的能力。但我認為最令我們鼓舞的是，我們聚焦的目標領域——同樣是汽車、運算與儲存、以及工業——這些領域具有較長的下單可視性，仍然非常穩健，而且我們看到的成長顯著優於市場。

Great. And then maybe, Michael, could you just address, as we look into the end of 2018 and in 2019, Intel will be launching their Cascade Lake platform by the end of the year and then the new Whitley or Cooper Lake platform maybe second half of '19. I know Purley was a big uptick for you in terms of the server content. How do you feel you're positioned with Cascade Lake and Whitley or Cooper Lake over the next 12 months?

很好。接著也許，Michael，你能否談談：展望 2018 年底與 2019 年，Intel 將在年底推出 Cascade Lake 平台，然後新的 Whitley 或 Cooper Lake 平台可能在 2019 年下半年推出。我知道 Purley 在伺服器內容（content）方面對你們而言是一個很大的上升動能。在未來 12 個月，對於 Cascade Lake 以及 Whitley 或 Cooper Lake，你覺得你們的布局狀況如何？

I think of this as we -- as I expected it. I think that we grew just -- we don't expect it to have anything different, again, in all the designing activities and all the new product we release. And we expect that it's the same as the last couple of quarters, and I think we'll even grow faster than -- most of the revenue is going to grow in the next -- 2019 all the way to 2022.

我對此的看法是——這符合我的預期。我認為我們成長得——我們不預期會有任何不同；同樣地，在所有設計活動以及我們推出的所有新產品上也是如此。我們預期會和過去幾個季度一樣，而且我認為我們甚至會成長得更快——大部分營收將在接下來——2019 年一路到 2022 年持續成長。

So it's sort of a steady ramp in server power management over that '19 to '22 time frame?

所以在 2019 到 2022 這段期間，伺服器電源管理會是穩定爬升的走勢？

Yes, yes. And they are in a similar rate of the growth.

是的，是的。而且它們的成長率也相近。

Got it. Go ahead, Bernie.

了解。Bernie，你請。

No. I was going to say that what you were referencing is that Intel has been adjusting their product release schedule around a couple different issues. And obviously, that's something we need to adapt to. We don't see it as a negative to or an impediment to the growth that Michael is referring to.

不。我想說的是，你所提到的是 Intel 因為幾個不同的議題，一直在調整他們的產品發布時程。而顯然，這是我們需要去適應的事情。我們不認為這會對 Michael 所提到的成長造成負面影響或形成阻礙。

I care less about couple of -- plus/minus a couple quarters. And that's out of our controls. But the direction of the growth and we cover not only from traditional servers, all this new AR systems and the new type of servers, we cover all of them.

我比較不在意差個幾個百分點——上下差一兩個季度。而那不在我們的控制範圍內。但成長的方向，以及我們涵蓋的不僅是傳統伺服器，還包括所有這些新的 AR 系統與新型伺服器，我們全部都有涵蓋。

Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Ross Seymore。

Just wanted to get into the inventory in the channel side and dovetail that into the backlog question that was asked a bit ago here. Well, Bernie, you said that the backlog coverage has returned to normal. Over the course of this year, correct me if I'm wrong, but have you guys have been shipping to the elevated backlog? Have you been controlling it? And where does channel inventory stand today?

我想談談通路端的庫存，並把它和剛才提到的積壓訂單（backlog）問題串起來。Bernie，你說積壓訂單的覆蓋程度已回到正常。在今年的過程中，如果我沒理解錯的話，你們一直在對應較高的積壓訂單出貨嗎？你們有在控制它嗎？以及目前通路庫存處於什麼水位？

Sure. So in -- the reference that you're talking to is between Q1 and Q2 that we'd actually had a decline in terms of channel inventory, in terms of days. And as we look ahead here, both as far as how we finished Q3 and in Q4, a lot of the sales commitments that we have for both quarters are related to commitments that were made upwards of 4 to 6 months ago. And so we are continuing to deliver against that. But with the amount of uncertainty that is in the market, the timing of when that gets drawn from the channel is a little bit changed. And so we went up a little bit in Q3. And I don't know -- I don't have a forecast for how Q4 is looking, whether it will go up or down a little bit. But again, it's something that we have to continue to monitor.

當然。你提到的參考點是在第一季到第二季之間，我們的通路庫存（以天數計）其實是下降的。而往前看，不論是我們第三季的收尾，或是第四季，兩個季度中我們許多銷售承諾都與早在 4 到 6 個月前做出的承諾有關。因此我們持續依照那些承諾交付。但由於市場存在相當多的不確定性，通路何時把貨拉走的時間點有些改變。所以我們在第三季略有上升。至於第四季會如何，我不確定——我沒有第四季會上升或下降的預測。但這確實是我們必須持續監控的事情。

I guess similarly to that, as the backlog falls, the fear people have for the whole market and companies like yourself is the what goes from 100% coverage plus to something that's normal, then the next step is a further step down. I know you guys have a great secular trend over the course of the number of years. But how do you guys mitigate that risk as we look into, say, the first half of next year?

我想類似地，當積壓訂單下降時，市場對整體以及像你們這樣公司的擔憂是：從 100% 以上的覆蓋回到正常之後，下一步會不會再進一步下滑。我知道你們在多年來有很強的長期結構性趨勢（secular trend）。但當我們展望例如明年上半年時，你們要如何降低這個風險？

Yes. Okay. The inventories, they're my favorite questions now, Ross. We have lot of growth in the new market segments. And it changes the pattern of how we do inventory. In auto, industrial and telecom, now the 5G network, although the revenue is small, it started to ramping, and also as well as for data centers and cloud computing. We really need a lot of inventory to cover the ramp. And regarding all these traditional high-volume business, and those businesses we can go in and out within the half a year. And so we're not worried about the inventory.

是的。好。庫存——Ross，這現在是我最喜歡的問題。我們在新的市場區隔有很多成長。這也改變了我們做庫存的模式。在汽車、工業與電信（現在是 5G 網路）方面，雖然營收還小，但已開始爬坡；同時也包括資料中心與雲端運算。我們確實需要較多庫存來支撐爬坡。至於這些傳統的高出貨量業務，那些業務我們可以在半年內進出調整。所以我們不擔心庫存。

So we're basically prepared to be able to service the targeted markets. And we believe that, as you look to the first half of '19, that they are less impacted by the price sensitivities that might be -- occur as a result of the tariffs or geopolitical trade policies. And then as Michael just said, that on the areas that are more affected, we have the ability to course correct, and as we demonstrated in Q3, even within the quarter, to be able to achieve our revenue goals.

因此我們基本上已準備好能服務我們鎖定的市場。我們相信，展望 2019 年上半年，這些市場較不會受到因關稅或地緣政治貿易政策而可能出現的價格敏感度影響。另外如 Michael 剛才所說，在受影響較大的領域，我們有能力修正航向；而且如同我們在第三季所展現的，甚至在單一季度內也能達成營收目標。

The high inventory -- again, it's my favorite now, okay. High inventory, in a company like MPS, we have to build a reputation. With regard to traditional, we'll achieve it and we will ship our products. And where we're the newcomers, we have to have a record of reliability as well as a continuation of our delivery. We'll never have that kind of problems. Any one glitch that cause a lot more problems, much bigger market cap hit, then a few million dollars and a few days of inventory.

高庫存——再說一次，這現在是我最喜歡的問題，好嗎。像 MPS 這樣的公司，高庫存是因為我們必須建立聲譽。在傳統領域，我們會做到並且會出貨。而在我們是新進者的地方，我們也必須建立可靠性的紀錄，以及持續交付的能力。我們絕不會有那種問題。任何一次小故障都會造成更多問題、帶來更大的市值衝擊，遠超過幾百萬美元以及幾天的庫存。

I guess as my last question, as you guys look back to the last cycle in kind of late '15 and early '16, it was barely a blip for MPS. You still in '16 grew, I think, 16%, 17% year-over-year, way above the analog market as a whole. If you just did compare and contrast the positioning of MPS today versus what it was looking like back 3 years ago, can you just walk through some of the puts and takes as you see it?

我最後一個問題是，回頭看上一個景氣循環，大約在 2015 年底到 2016 年初，對 MPS 來說幾乎只是小波動。你們在 2016 年仍然成長，我記得年增約 16%、17%，遠高於整體類比市場。如果把今天的 MPS 與三年前的定位做個對比，你能否談談你所看到的一些利弊取捨（puts and takes）？

Sure. I think that obviously, with all of the new product releases that we've had that really started to ramp beginning in the second half of 2017 and now we're in full swing, we have a much different portfolio that we're able to manage. And so from that regard, I think that the diversification, both in terms of products, end markets and geographies, allows us an awful lot of flexibility that we didn't have back at the second half of 2015. Having said that, I would hate to try and draw a parallel between 2015, which ended up being a rather short-term and pretty much an issue specific to the semiconductor industry, and what we're observing today. I don't think that people have enough visibility or confidence as to how long this current environment might last.

當然。我認為很明顯地，隨著我們推出的所有新產品——這些產品在 2017 年下半年開始放量、現在已全面展開——我們能管理的產品組合已大不相同。因此從這個角度來看，無論是在產品、終端市場或地理區域的多元化，都讓我們擁有在 2015 年下半年時所沒有的高度彈性。話雖如此，我不太想把 2015 年（最後證明是相對短期、且幾乎是半導體產業特有的問題）與我們今天觀察到的情況做類比。我不認為大家對於目前環境可能持續多久，有足夠的能見度或信心。

Our next question comes from William Stein with SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 William Stein。

I just want to make sure I understand the sort of the narrative around end markets and demand trends. So consumer came in light as customers backed off orders in that end market that you think is attributable to tariffs. But you made up more than the difference in the comms end market. I want to make sure I have that right. And also understand better about what drove that upside in comms. Is that something that perhaps, if the consumer end market would have been fine, that you would have posted meaningful upside to the quarter? Or was this something that sort of came and surprised you to the upside? Or was there a lot of extra work that it took to drive this to allow you to deliver good results as you usually do? Helping me understand that would be great.

我想確認我是否理解你們對終端市場與需求趨勢的敘事。所以消費性市場表現偏弱，是因為客戶在該終端市場縮減訂單，而你們認為這可歸因於關稅。但你們在通訊（comms）終端市場的表現彌補了、甚至超過了這個差額。我想確認我理解得沒錯。另外也想更了解通訊端的超預期是由什麼驅動的。如果消費性終端市場本來就沒問題，你們是否會在本季繳出顯著的超預期？還是說這是某種讓你們意外的上行驚喜？或者你們為了推動這件事、以便像往常一樣交出好成績，是否做了很多額外工作？希望你能幫我釐清。

Thanks, Will. So there's a couple of observations. If you look at consumer sequentially from Q2 to Q3, this was a lower increase than we historically experienced. And it was fairly broad-based as far as the number of areas that were impacted. Interestingly, that's in the traditional consumer -- or high-value consumer end market, we actually performed pretty well. And then as far as the ability to course correct within a quarter, even with relatively short lead time, we play opportunistically in a lot of different markets. And historically, we have not taken on the comms business, this is referring to our legacy gateway and router business, because it tends to be lower margin. And in this quarter, we were able to really just pivot. So it was not a lot of effort in order to be able to accept opportunities that we have an opportunity to quote on and bring that in within the quarter. So as I look ahead, I think the most encouraging thing is that we can have that opportunity. We see the comms business is actually lining up in very good shape for Q4, but I think one of the most encouraging things that might have been a slight upside -- surprise is that we started to see some very initial sales on the 5G side.

謝謝，Will。我有幾點觀察。如果看消費性市場從第二季到第三季的季增，增幅比我們歷史經驗來得低。而且影響範圍相當廣，涉及多個領域。有趣的是，在傳統消費性——或高價值消費性終端市場——我們其實表現得相當不錯。至於在單一季度內修正航向的能力，即使前置時間相對短，我們在許多不同市場都能機會性地參與。而歷史上我們並未承接通訊業務——這裡指的是我們既有的閘道器與路由器業務——因為它的毛利通常較低。但在這一季，我們能夠真正快速轉向。因此，為了接受我們有機會報價、並在季度內把業務帶進來的機會，其實不需要投入太多額外努力。展望未來，我認為最令人鼓舞的是我們能擁有這樣的機會。我們看到通訊業務在第四季的布局其實相當不錯；但我認為最令人鼓舞、也可能算是小幅上行驚喜的是，我們開始看到 5G 端非常初期的一些銷售。

The comm business is a -- in the last few quarters, we are flat or slightly down. And so they have a refresh, okay. And we gained some market shares. And -- but there's a significant portion of it. We see the 5G network start to ramp. And those product, we designed it back in -- a couple years ago.

通訊業務在過去幾個季度呈現——我們持平或略有下滑。所以他們進行了一次更新，好。而我們取得了一些市占率。而——但其中有相當大的一部分。我們看到 5G 網路開始加速爬坡。而那些產品，我們在——幾年前就開始設計了。

A follow-up, if I can. When people ask about what's perhaps something that investors don't understand about Monolithic, one of the answers I've heard you give is that, well, consensus for next year is up 16% and we think long-term growth is at 20%. Would you still endorse a 20% growth number for 2019? Or would you think that's too optimistic given the geopolitical and other risks?

如果可以的話，我再追問一下。當人們問到投資人可能不太理解 Monolithic 的哪些地方時，我聽過你給的一個答案是：嗯，市場對明年的共識是成長 16%，而我們認為長期成長是 20%。你仍然會認同 2019 年 20% 的成長數字嗎？還是你會覺得在地緣政治與其他風險之下，這太樂觀了？

I think it's a -- if you -- we will clearly beat whatever your forecast is for the next year, industrial growth, okay, we will beat it about 15 points or higher.

我認為這是——如果你——我們明確會超越你對明年的任何預測，工業成長，好，我們會超過大約 15 個百分點或更高。

I think that when we look at next year, as far as our confidence in 20%, that remains very consistent and solid. Again, we -- one of the things that we want to be known for is our consistency of execution and that we can support that, again, with the amount of visibility we have, particularly in these targeted areas that have the longer design cycles and longer ordering patterns. Now having said that, we're not immune to the macro. And certainly in the first half of the year, we feel reasonably confident that we have the shots on goal to be successful. We don't have clear visibility on how that's going to play out in the early stages of the year.

我認為當我們看明年時，就我們對 20% 的信心而言，仍然非常一致且穩固。再說一次，我們——我們希望以執行的一致性聞名，而且我們能夠支撐這一點；同樣地，憑藉我們所掌握的能見度，特別是在這些目標領域，因為它們有較長的設計週期與較長的下單模式。話雖如此，我們也不可能完全不受總體環境影響。而且當然在上半年，我們相當有信心我們有足夠的機會去達成成功。我們對於年初階段會如何發展，並沒有清楚的能見度。

Our next question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

Congratulations on the record operating margin. A few questions here. So first of all, I know you have some operations in China. And certainly, your supply chain is there. Any changes to that strategy at all? I mean, I know it's really early days, right? But just given some of the macro political turmoil, any changes to the thinking at all about your operations in China at this point?

恭喜創下營業利益率新高。我這裡有幾個問題。首先，我知道你們在中國有一些營運。而且當然，你們的供應鏈也在那裡。這個策略有任何改變嗎？我的意思是，我知道現在還很早，對吧？但考量到一些總體政治動盪，目前對你們在中國的營運，在想法上有任何改變嗎？

We need to diversify it. And we have a lot of resources from -- in China. So we started 2 years ago. We started to diversify it in the different political regimes. And in terms of our R&D, most of the orders are developed in China. And all these -- other than the geopolitical issues and now it's out of our controls, if we see the one region is down the other region is up, okay, that's the area we really want to focus and diversify our presence.

我們需要多元化。而我們在——中國有很多資源。所以我們在兩年前就開始了。我們開始在不同的政治體制下做多元化。就我們的研發而言，多數的訂單是在中國開發的。而所有這些——除了地緣政治議題之外，現在也超出我們的控制；如果我們看到某個區域下滑、另一個區域上升，好，這就是我們真正想要聚焦並多元化我們布局的地方。

And Tore -- go ahead.

Tore——請繼續。

No, no. Go ahead. Finish the answer, yes.

不，不。你繼續。把答案說完，對。

Yes. I was just going to say that on the supply chain issues right now, Michael is exactly right, we don't have control or visibility as far as what the next steps of the process. But again, to the extent that we diversify in the end markets that we sell into and the different customers we have, we would probably adopt a similar profile longer term for our supply chain as well.

是的。我只是想說，就目前供應鏈議題而言，Michael 說得完全正確，我們對於流程下一步會怎麼走，沒有控制力也沒有能見度。但同樣地，只要我們在最終銷售的終端市場以及不同客戶上做多元化，長期來看，我們的供應鏈也可能會採取類似的配置輪廓。

That's very fair. And a question on 5G. So you're starting to see some revenue contribution there. Is that power management that's based on Intelli-Phase or QSMod just like in the data center market? Or are these different types of power products?

這很合理。再問一個關於 5G 的問題。所以你們開始看到那邊有一些營收貢獻。那是像資料中心市場一樣、基於 Intelli-Phase 或 QSMod 的電源管理嗎？還是這些是不同類型的電源產品？

They are other types of products in a different network segment. As well as the way you said it, it is based on the Intelli-Phase. And those products are in the high-power computing segment, segment of 5G.

它們是在不同網路區段的其他類型產品。同時如你所說，它是基於 Intelli-Phase。而那些產品是在 5G 的高功率運算區段。

Okay, very good. And I think you may have already answered this question, Michael, but as far as your lead times, since you obviously are so focused on making sure the deliveries are there, I assume your lead times are still very stable. They were stable first half. They're stable now?

好的，非常好。我想你可能已經回答過這個問題了，Michael，但就你們的交期而言，既然你們顯然非常專注於確保交付到位，我假設你們的交期仍然非常穩定。上半年很穩定。現在也穩定嗎？

Yes. The lead times are very, very stable. Bernie can add on, okay.

是的。交期非常、非常穩定。Bernie 可以補充一下，好。

Yes. We've had no change in the lead times in all phases of production, whether it's wafer packaging tests. Everything is going very consistently.

是的。我們在生產各階段的交期都沒有變化，不論是晶圓、封裝、測試。一切都非常一致地進行。

Okay, very good. Just one last question. You generated almost $50 million in free cash flow this quarter. I mean, I know sort of your approach to capital management, but just kind of based on what the stock price is, any thought about how to put that free cash flow to use?

好的，非常好。最後一個問題。你們本季產生了將近 5,000 萬美元的自由現金流。我的意思是，我知道你們對資本管理的大致作法，但就目前股價來看，有沒有想過要如何運用這些自由現金流？

We're either going to increase the dividend or looking for some tuck-in technology company we can buy. So -- and we are not going to buy another company for revenue increase.

我們不是提高股利，就是尋找一些可以收購的補強型（tuck-in）技術公司。所以——而我們不會為了增加營收而去收購另一家公司。

Our next question comes from Alessandra Vecchi with William Blair.

我們下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Alessandra Vecchi。

Just to go in a little bit more on the consumer side and the weakness you've been seeing there. I think historically, you guys have said that of your consumer revenue, about 50% of it's traditional. I think 30% of it's high value and 20% of it's gaming. Are you seeing the weakness in gaming as well? Or is it only in that 50% traditional bucket? And if it's in the traditional bucket, is it -- should we consider the whole 50% weak? Or it's only parts of that? Just sort of trying to quantify where consumer could go from here given that seems to be -- in one bucket, that's the most at risk in the short term.

我想再更深入談一下消費端以及你們在那裡看到的疲弱。我記得過去你們曾說過，在你們的消費性營收中，大約 50% 是傳統類。我想 30% 是高價值，20% 是遊戲。你們也在遊戲方面看到疲弱嗎？還是只有在那 50% 的傳統類別？如果是在傳統類別，那——我們是否應該把整個 50% 都視為疲弱？還是只有其中一部分？只是想量化一下，在短期看來似乎是風險最高的一個籃子之下，消費端接下來可能會走到哪裡。

Yes. I hate to say that in the last couple of times that we talked about gaming, our customers not happy, okay. We can't do that. And the one time I said that it wasn't my favorite topic, okay, our customer heard that. Okay, so gaming is my favorite. There's a lot of money to be made with 100% of the components, okay. But here is what have we got, and again, we see high volumes. And we're not talking about what kind of gaming, okay, we see a bit of softness. And these are high-volume ones. And other than that, we see connected device or the IoT, if you will, okay, and a variety of other gauges. And we see -- in our designing, we see the market demand is still very similar.

是的。我不太想說的是，在我們前幾次談到遊戲時，我們的客戶不高興，好。我們不能那樣做。而有一次我說那不是我最喜歡的話題，好，我們的客戶聽到了。好，所以遊戲是我最喜歡的。用到 100% 的元件，有很多錢可以賺，好。但我們目前看到的是，而且再說一次，我們看到高出貨量。我們不是在談是哪一種遊戲，好，我們看到有一點點轉弱。而這些是高出貨量的。除此之外，我們看到連網裝置或你說的 IoT，好，以及各式各樣的其他量測指標。而我們看到——在我們的設計導入上，我們看到市場需求仍然非常相近。

And then similarly, just in terms of the Q4, you guys traditionally don't give us any sort of granularity on the directional segment -- or the direction of the different segments. But if you had to say on the segment from Q4 what's the strongest to the weakest, do you still think about computing and storage is the strongest and then maybe industrial and optical? Or how has that shifted?

然後同樣地，就第四季而言，你們一向不會就各個終端市場區隔的走向——或不同區隔的方向性——提供任何細部資訊。但如果一定要你們從第四季各區隔由強到弱排序，你們是否仍認為運算與儲存最強，接著可能是工業與光學？或者這個排序有什麼變化？

Yes. Again, I think if you look at the results, clearly, what we saw in computing and storage, automotive and industrial, those weren't onetime drivers. This is all about the secular expansion that we've been discussing now for several years, and we're now seeing the results come in full term. And so I don't see anything in my -- in the outlook that would indicate a diminution of those growth rates. And then as far as how we manage the margin with the consumer, that's something that we're adept at being able to do. So I think that as we look at Q4, we feel very confident not just in the number in total, but also the individual markets as far as they're going to source that growth.

是的。再說一次，我認為如果你看結果，很明顯我們在運算與儲存、車用與工業所看到的表現，並非一次性驅動因素。這完全是我們過去幾年一直在討論的長期結構性擴張，而我們現在正看到成果全面顯現。因此，在我的——在展望中，我看不到任何跡象顯示這些成長率會減弱。至於我們如何在消費性市場管理毛利率，這是我們很擅長處理的事情。所以我認為，當我們看第四季時，我們不僅對整體數字非常有信心，對各個個別市場將如何帶來這些成長也同樣有信心。

Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Chris Caso。

Just first question with regard to inventory levels. Can you talk about what your visibility is both to the distribution channel and to OEM inventories? And I know that through the year, you guys have been taking steps to try to discourage customers, prevent customers from building excess inventories. Could you speak to some of those actions and your level of visibility and confidence in the inventory levels?

第一個問題是關於庫存水位。你能談談你們對通路端以及 OEM 端庫存的可視度（掌握程度）嗎？我知道今年以來，你們一直採取一些措施，試圖勸阻客戶、避免客戶建立過多庫存。能否談談其中一些作法，以及你們對庫存水位的可視度與信心程度？

Yes, that's my favorite question, Chris. And inventory -- okay, I try to convince all of you guys, okay, it's good for us to increase it. And now I think that we're pretty normal.

是的，Chris，這是我最喜歡的問題。而庫存——好吧，我一直試著說服你們各位，好吧，對我們來說增加庫存是好事。但現在我認為我們的狀況相當正常。

And then as far as inventory in the channels, again, I'd just refer to an earlier response, is that in the prior 3 quarters, we'd experienced a pattern of over-ordering. And this is reflected in higher-than-normal historic backlog levels at certain points in the quarter. And while we've seen a moderation of that, that is changed because there is a certain level of uncertainty. And we want to make sure that we're really satisfying real demand as opposed to creating a problem for us down the road. Now having said that, with the channel -- we did a very thorough assessment of it at the end of Q3 as well as what we expect to be the sell-through in Q4, and that all got taken into account as we gave our guidance for Q4 in total. So right now, we are feeling that we're getting timely feedback, and we're managing it accordingly.

至於通路端的庫存，再次我只想引用先前的回答：在前 3 個季度，我們經歷了一種超額下單的模式。這反映在季度某些時點出現高於正常歷史水準的積壓訂單（backlog）。雖然我們已看到這種情況有所緩和，但由於存在一定程度的不確定性，情況也有所改變。我們希望確保我們真正滿足的是實際需求，而不是在未來替自己製造問題。話雖如此，針對通路——我們在第三季末做了非常徹底的評估，也評估了我們預期第四季的終端銷售（sell-through），而這些都已納入我們對第四季整體的財測指引之中。所以目前我們覺得我們能獲得即時回饋，並據此進行管理。

All right, great. And I guess just following on from that, could you talk about what you consider to be normal seasonal patterns in Q1? And I know there's not a lot of visibility right now, and you're probably doing a lot of work on that. But are there any aspects that we should take into consideration with regard to Q1 based on what you're seeing right now?

好的，很好。我想接著問，能否談談你們認為第一季正常的季節性型態是什麼？我知道目前可視度不高，你們可能也正在做很多相關工作。但就你們現在看到的情況，第一季是否有任何我們應該納入考量的面向？

Yes. We only provide guidance 1 quarter ahead, and so I don't want to overreach with any comment. But if you traditionally look at -- with the exception of last year, which was an unusual set of circumstances because we had greenfield opportunities, particularly in the compute and storage that we introduced, that we've traditionally had a step down from Q4 to Q1 of between 3% to 4%.

是的。我們只提供往前 1 個季度的指引，所以我不想對任何評論過度延伸。但如果你從傳統來看——除了去年之外，去年因為一組不尋常的情況（我們有綠地機會，尤其是在我們導入的運算與儲存領域）——我們傳統上從第四季到第一季會下滑約 3% 到 4%。

(Operator Instructions) And we do have a follow-up from Quinn Bolton with Needham.

（接線員指示）我們有 Needham 的 Quinn Bolton 追加提問。

Bernie, you kind of addressed it in answering Chris' question, but I guess I just want to ask more specifically. As you look into your distribution channels, I think there's, especially in uncertain environments, a tendency for the distributors to reduce their inventories in the calendar year-end. And so I guess, when you look at your fourth quarter forecast, you said you took into account sort of the supply chain and the disti channel. Are you expecting them to reduce their days of inventory in the fourth quarter? Or do you expect them to sort of keep a constant days inventory on hand? Any guidance you could provide us would be helpful.

Bernie，你在回答 Chris 的問題時有稍微提到，但我想更具體地問一下。當你觀察你們的分銷通路時，我認為在不確定的環境下，分銷商往往會在曆年年底降低庫存。所以我想問的是，當你看你們第四季的預測時，你說你已把供應鏈與分銷通路（disti channel）納入考量。你們是否預期他們會在第四季降低庫存天數？或者你們預期他們會大致維持手上庫存天數不變？任何你能提供的指引都會很有幫助。

Yes. The formula sort of works that the channel tries to reduce the dollar value of inventory in Q4. But the denominator as far as the quarterly revenue in Q4 is less than Q3. So my expectation is that the dollars will be at or below the Q3 level and the days may be at or maybe even a little above in Q4. And it's really an arithmetic exercise rather than anything that we're concerned about.

是的。這個公式大致是這樣運作的：通路會試著在第四季降低庫存的美元金額。但就第四季的季度營收而言，其分母低於第三季。因此我的預期是，美元金額會持平於或低於第三季水準，而庫存天數在第四季可能持平，甚至可能略高一些。這其實是算術上的結果，而不是我們所擔心的任何事情。

And I'm showing no further questions in queue. So I'd like to turn the conference back over to Bernie Blegen for closing remarks.

我這邊顯示目前沒有其他排隊提問。因此我想把電話會議交回給 Bernie Blegen 做結語。

Thank you. I'd like to thank you all for joining us for this conference call, and I look forward to talking to you again in our fourth quarter conference call, which would likely be in February. Thank you, and have a nice day.

謝謝。感謝各位參加本次電話會議，我也期待在我們第四季電話會議上再次與各位交流，時間很可能在二月。謝謝，祝各位有美好的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. Thank you very much for your participation. You may all disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

謝謝。各位女士先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝各位的參與。各位現在可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。