MPLX LP (MPLX) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the MPLX fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Julie, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Kristina Kazarian. Kristina, you may begin.

Welcome to MPLX's fourth quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. The slides that accompany the call today can be found on our website at mplx.com under -- joining me on the call today are Maryann Mannen, President and CEO; Chris Hagedorn, CFO; and other members of the executive team. We invite you to read the safe harbour statements on Slide 2. We will be making forward-looking statements today. Actual results may differ.

Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included there as well as our filings with the SEC. As a reminder, in the fourth quarter of 2025, MPLX divested noncore gathering and processing assets, which had a $23 million year-over-year impact on our adjusted EBITDA within our natural gas and NGL Services segment. Additional details on the impact of this divestiture can be found on Page 11 in our earnings release. With that, I will turn the call over to Maryann.

Thanks, Kristina. Good morning and thank you for joining our call. 2025 was a year of disciplined investment and strong returns. It was our fourth consecutive year achieving a mid-single-digit 3-year adjusted EBITDA growth CAGR. Adjusted EBITDA reached just over $7 billion.

The strength across our business gave us confidence to continue our history of returning meaningful capital to our unitholders. We increased our distribution by 12.5%, bringing total returns in 2025 to $4.4 billion. This decision reflects our commitment to return the value we create as we advance MPLX's growth strategy with our unitholders.

Over the past year, we took meaningful steps to position MPLX for the next phase of growth. We deployed $5.5 billion to our natural gas and NGL value chains, primarily focused on the fastest-growing region in the country. We optimized our portfolio through divestitures of noncore assets. ensuring our future capital deployment is aligned with the strongest return opportunities as we build the infrastructure that will fuel tomorrow's energy needs.

Together, these investments and portfolio actions create a more resilient and competitive MPLX, one that we believe can continue delivering growth while maintaining our strong track record of returning capital to our unitholders.

Today, we announced our capital plan for 2026.

We are planning to invest $2.4 billion as we execute on a robust pipeline of capital projects that support long-term structural growth. The long-term fundamentals for natural gas and NGL demand remain strong. In the US, natural gas demand is anticipated to grow over 15% through 2030, driven by the rapid expansion of LNG export capacity and rising power needs, particularly from data centres. We are also seeing higher gas-to-oil ratios across key shale basins as aging wells produce more associated gas per barrel of oil.

This trend is increasing supplies of NGL-rich gas and underscores the strategic importance of our infrastructure in the Permian. Globally, petrochemical demand for ethane and propane are driving increased NGL exports the strength of the long-term outlook. 90% of our growth capital will be directed towards our natural gas and NGL Services segment, where we see some of the most compelling opportunities in the midstream sector.

These projects are concentrated in the Permian and Marcellus, 2 of the most prolific and competitive basins in North America and are expected to generate mid-teens returns when they come into service in 2028 and beyond.

These investments reflect our confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the energy market and in MPLX's ability to continue capturing value as these opportunities unfold. Execution of our Permian NGL wellhead-to-water strategy continues to advance. We are integrating the sour gas treating operations we acquired last year into our existing gathering and processing footprint in the Delaware Basin.

Titan treating complex construction continues and is progressing on time and on budget. expect to be treating more than 40 -- our EBITDA grew from 35 which is planned for 2025 and provides an attractive solution for producers who are increasing activity in the low-cost sour gas window of the Delaware.

Building on the downstream opportunities created by this platform, today, we announced Secretariat II, a new 300 million cubic feet per day processing plant. Expected to deliver mid-teens returns, the $320 million plant will be our eighth gas processing facility in the Delaware Basin and is expected online in the second half of 2028. Once in service, our total processing capacity in the basin will reach approximately 1.7 billion cubic feet per day.

Further downstream, the BANGL pipeline expansion remains on schedule with incremental capacity expected online in the fourth quarter of this year. Beyond BANGL, we are advancing construction of a 300,000 barrel per day of Gulf Coast fractionation capacity as well as our 400,000 barrel per day LPG export terminal JV.

Engineering and construction continues. We have secured key construction permits, reflecting strong regulatory and stakeholder engagement. Site grading is near completion and is being executed with strong safety performance and responsible environmental stewardship. The LPG export terminal expected online in 2028 will benefit from its advantaged proximity to open water, positioning us to serve growing global markets with greater efficiency. Elsewhere in the Permian, MPLX continues to invest in its integrated natural gas value chain.

In November, MPLX, along with its JV partners, announced the expansion of the Eiger Express natural gas pipeline to 3.7 billion cubic feet per day. The expansion demonstrates the record demand for firm takeaway capacity we are seeing across the basin.

Construction is also progressing on several long-haul JV pipeline systems. These investments are underpinned by commitments from the basin's leading producers and will enhance shippers access to multiple premium markets along the Gulf Coast. In the Marcellus, our largest operating region, construction is advancing on the 300 million cubic feet per day Harmon Creek III gas processing and fractionation complex.

Upon completion, expected in the third quarter of 2026, our Northeast processing capacity will reach 8.1 billion cubic feet per day and fractionation capacity of 800,000 barrels per day, positioning MPLX to serve growing Marcellus and Utica volumes. MPLX is also expanding its Marcellus gathering system to meet producer needs through a $450 million project, which will add compression, support well connections and enhance MPLX's Majorsville gas processing complex.

The project is expected to deliver mid-teens returns and enter service in the first half of 2028. Our capital deployment strategy positions MPLX for durable long-term growth. We are building the infrastructure system that will support rising North American future energy needs.

From new treating and processing capacity to downstream fractionation and export, we plan to deliver on our commitment to create sustainable value for our unitholders. Now let me turn the call over to Chris to discuss our operational and financial results for the quarter.

Thanks, Maryann. Slide 8 outlines the fourth quarter operational and financial performance highlights for our Crude Oil and Products and Logistics segment. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased $52 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

The increase was primarily driven by a $37 million benefit from a revised FERC tariff issued in November and higher rates, partially offset by higher planned project-related expenses. Pipeline volumes increased 1%, while terminal volumes decreased 2% year-over-year.

Moving to our natural gas and NGL Services segment on Slide 9. Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $10 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 as the divestiture of noncore gathering and processing assets and lower NGL prices more than offset growth from recently acquired assets and higher volumes.

After considering the $23 million impact of divesting noncore gathering and processing assets, we actually grew 2.1% year-over-year for the fourth quarter. Gathered volumes increased 2% year-over-year, primarily due to production growth in the Utica.

Processing volumes decreased 1% year-over-year as increased production in the Marcellus was more than offset by the sale of noncore assets. Processing volumes in the Utica have increased 4% year-over-year as producers continue to target this liquids-rich acreage. Marcellus processing utilization was 97% for the quarter, nearing capacity as Harmon Creek III is positioned to come online on a just-in-time basis later this year.

Total fractionation volumes decreased 2% year-over-year as higher ethane recoveries in the Marcellus and Utica were more than offset by the sale of the Rockies assets. Within our natural gas and NGL business, recent freezing conditions across the country have impacted crude oil and natural gas production. We have seen minimal impact to our assets, but some producer customers have experienced frozen well pads and equipment, impacting volumes at a few of our facilities in the Permian. Moving to our fourth quarter financial highlights on Slide 10.

Adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion increased 2% from the prior year, while distributable cash flow of $1.4 billion decreased 4% over the same time frame due to interest expense associated with incremental debt used to finance recent acquisitions and growth capital. During the quarter, MPLX returned $1.2 billion to unitholders in distributions and unit repurchases.

MPLX ended the quarter with a cash balance of $2.1 billion and plans to utilize this cash in alignment with our capital allocation framework. MPLX maintains a solid balance sheet which is planned for 2025 still not revealed the annual report will be in two months to follow reach full run rate and our organic growth projects are placed into service. Now let me hand it back to Maryann for some concluding thoughts.

Thanks, Chris. Through disciplined capital deployment execution and optimization of our integrated value chains we have achieved in the second half of this year, we anticipate seeing contributions from the second. Titan sour gas treatment plant, Harmon Creek III Driven by increased throughput on existing assets and new assets being placed into service. As these assets ramp to full capacity, we anticipate they will also support mid-single-digit EBITDA growth in 2027 as well. We remain confident these investments will enhance our cash flows and enable us to continue returning meaningful capital to our shareholders.

Now let me turn the call over to Kristina.

Thanks, Maryann. As we open the call for your questions and as a courtesy to all participants, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. If time permits, we will rep prompt for additional questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

(Operator Instructions) John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

Your line is open.

Hey, good morning team. Thank you for the time. Maryann, I wanted to pull up together a couple of points you mentioned. Can you talk a little bit more about your confidence in that mid-teens return target for the project backlog, particularly in the context of maybe lower growth in '25 versus the mid-single-digit overall target going forward. And maybe particularly, anything you can share around contract protections, et cetera. Thank you.

Yeah, good morning, John. Thank you. And certainly, when we think about 2026 and frankly, when we think about any capital investment that we put to work, we continue to use our lens of strict capital discipline and ensure that we are delivering mid-teens returns and that those projects are also supportive of our mid-single-digit growth. As I mentioned from a period or two ago, as we look at the growth going forward, it is unlikely that we're going to be able to be completely Lear.

We're putting capital to work that has EBITDA contribution that's coming online in later years. And then we're also adding in our organic M&A opportunities projects that come online in the short term in order to be able to deliver that as well. Let me give you a couple of examples of that. You think about BANGL, the incremental ownership comes online in 2026 incremental EBITDA I mentioned Secretary at One ramping up through 2026. That will add incremental EBITDA again this year.

We've got Bay Runner, as I mentioned, in Blackcomb in service in the fourth quarter, contributing to that also. . Moving on to the Marcellus, you've got Harmon Creek III also that will be on in the back half of the year. These are some significant projects, again, through that lens mid-teens returns to support mid-single digits. So that gives us the confidence, as we say that on year-on-year, 25% to 26%, we should see growth above what we saw in '24 and '25.

And we hope that you see that the 2026 capital outlook really signals compelling investment opportunities for us. We think the backdrop, particularly when you look at demand pull, NGL nat gas is extremely supportive and then frankly, when we look at 2026 exit rate for our sour gas project, we remain confident in our ability to deliver that EBITDA into 2027. And then I mentioned Gulf Coast project on track for '28 and beyond.

I appreciate all the detail. Maybe drilling in a little bit more, it sounds like you've had some early success on commercial. I mean, some of the North wind kind of synergy projects with Secretariat II, can you just ramp up for us kind of where that process stands? Is there more you can do on factoring some of those volumes coming off that system?

Yes. Certainly, John. Thank you for the question. As you know, when we talked about the acquisition of North Windows, we call it our Delaware Basin sour gas facility, we felt like it was a critical platform for future growth, particularly when you look at what we consider to be some of the best rock in the Permian and our ability to help producers with treating and processing that. We mentioned at that time that we thought when you looked at the processing contracts now, those had a much shorter duration versus the long-term average 13 year on the trading side.

But on the processing side, we said this could potentially be accelerating our growth as we were able to bring new assets online to address those contract roll up on the processing side. . But I would also tell you that Secretariat II will also help us support our legacy volumes as well. So not only is it supportive of growth beyond the Northwind’s platform, but also for our legacy growth I'm going to ask Greg to give you incremental color on the legacy side.

Yeah, John, yes, we're really excited about -- we continue to be very excited about the sour gas system that we acquired. I mentioned before that it wraps around our existing legacy system as if we had planned and built it. Part of the Titan II expansion, which we're on track, on time and budget to have complete late in the year. It allows us to meet our expectations for run rate in 2027, as Maryann mentioned, but it also provides an opportunity to connect this system into our legacy system. So along with the Titan II project and the compression expansions and the pipelines that we're building to support that uptick in volume.

We're also building connecting lines, one on the north end, one from the Titan facility over actually to Secretariat into our Tornado complex and then a middle line. So we'll be able to start offloading when those lines are complete and has tightened capacity ramps up. But we're also -- we see very robust growth continuing in the legacy portion of our system. Some of it on the edge of the sour, some in the suite but still really robust activity from the drillers.

So we upsized Secretariat II, it will be our first 300 million cubic feet per plant and partly to account for the additional growth we have from both systems.

Thanks for that. I appreciate it

You're welcome, John.

Manav Gupta, UBS.

Maryann, just wanted to ask you, there is a little bit of bearish sentiment on LPG exports generally and fears of overcapacity. But in the last few days, you've had this India US deal, -- and India is looking to buy a lot more energy from US. And I think LPG exports could be a new growth opportunity in that direction. So if you could -- if you have had time and if you could talk a little bit about the new opportunities that open for LPG exports, with this India U.S trade deal.

Yeah, good morning, Manav, and thank you. You're absolutely right. One of the reasons why we continue to look at this opportunity, putting capital to work -- we see strong demand for NGL and nat gas, and there's a pool there, obviously, from the growth anticipated from LNG -- and as you mentioned, I think the announcement or the conversations yesterday really are further supportive of the positions that we have and have had really for the for the last -- the last several quarters as we think about some of the capital that we've put to work.

We think market dynamics for global LPG demand remain very strong. There's no doubt about that. And again, as I mentioned, I think the announcement or the conversation yesterday hard to predict, right, early days there, but it is certainly, I think, supportive. And then when we look at our assets, we're pretty convinced about their capabilities when they come online, '28, '29 we believe we'll be full. As we have shared with you before.

We think we've got a good position when we look at LPG export given our dock given the partnership that we have and given the potential there for the long term. So we feel very good about that, obviously, as we continue to put capital to work in that space.

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is, look, when we look at organic growth capital, obviously, I think you were at $2.4 billion for '26, you were close to $2 billion last year, but then you did deploy almost $3.5 billion of gross capital through M&A. And I'm trying to understand, would -- if the right opportunities present themselves, would you be open to still bolt-on M&A in 2026? And the question I'm trying to ask is, at the start of the call, you said dividend distribution growth can be 12% for next couple of years? I'm trying to understand with some good M&A, can that two years become three years or more, if you could help us understand that.

Yes, certainly, Manav, and thank you for the question. As you know, in similar, as we set out this time last year, we put forth our capital plan and that capital plan is very specific to the organic projects that we have ongoing. You think about our Gulf Coast frac in terminal the capital on the Delaware Basin sour gas. We've got the Marcellus expansion that I mentioned, secretariat. But we continue to look for M&A opportunities.

. We look through them to the lens of strict capital discipline. We ensure that they meet our mid-teens returns and also that they are strategically aligned with, one, our nat gas and NGL wellhead-to-water strategy. They fit that strategy. So when I talk about the 12.5% being for the next two years, that meets all of the financial criteria that we've shared.

That doesn't mean we don't have an intention of increasing the distribution beyond that. And as you say, it will depend on what that growth is.

So as we find those M&A opportunities, -- we have a balance sheet that's quite strong, we believe, and we would absolutely consider incremental opportunities. And frankly, as you've seen us do in the past, some that are easiest for us and fairly immediately accretive would be our JVs. When we look at take BANGL, as an example, there are opportunities that would exist for us to continue to build out our ownership with the JVs that we currently have as a part of our portfolio. I hope that helps.

Thank you so much

You are welcome

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

Hi Maryann, maybe taking the opposite side of the M&A question. Looking at your portfolio optimization actions, which has been fairly consistent through the year, inning would you say you're at in terms of pruning assets that are less strategic across your portfolio to free up capital to pursue additional organic and tuck-in M&A growth.

Yeah, good morning, Theresa, thanks for the question. As you know, we continue to evaluate all of our assets. We say we want to ensure that we have the portfolio for today and the portfolio for the future. all of those basins today are cash flow positive, but we will always look through short term and long term and see whether or not there are owners of those assets, similar as we think about what we just recently did with the Rockies that have a different view on that growth profile so that we can continue to invest in those opportunities in the Marcellus and in the Permian, where we believe the most opportunity exists for us. So we'll continue to do that, Theresa, absolutely.

Understood. And given recent consolidation by some of the upstream community, -- how do these trends affect your growth outlook for your supply push assets and REITs contracting strategy over time?

So I would tell you, as we look at some of the recent announcements, certainly, those customers have been and will continue to be an important part of our portfolio, specifically, when we look at recontracting, if you think about the one that was just announced yesterday. And again, it's an early read, but when we look through that in terms of the way that the transaction has been announced and it is structured we don't see any immediate risk with contract renegotiation, et cetera, from a legal perspective. Absolutely not. .

Thank you.

You're welcome, Theresa.

Keith Stanley, Wolf Research.

Hi, good morning, and, sorry to beat a dead horse on the growth rate, but I wanted to clarify in 2026. You said it's faster growth than 2025. But would you say it's an above-average growth here in '26 just faster than '25. And relatedly, is that 2026 growth expectation inclusive of the headwind from the Rockies asset sale.

So thank you for the question, Keith. Yes, it is inclusive of the headwind coming from the Rocky sale, absolutely. And my comment, '24 to '25 growth is stronger than '24 to '25. But I'm not suggesting that it is completely outsized there. It is larger growth remember, we are starting from a $7 billion position.

So growing that mid-single digit is the range of $450 million to $500 million depending on where you are in your mid-single-digit range. So it is '24 -- excuse me, '25 to '26 stronger than '24 to '25. I hope that helps, Keith.

It does. Second question, I wanted to ask on the FERC index change for the next 5-year period. So that's now a PPI minus 0.6%, I think. Should we think of that as a headwind for your outlook for the liquids business? Or would you say that new inflation adjustment level was expected and already baked into your plans and outlook?

Keith, this is Sean. Thanks for the question. Although the FERC adder is negative, we did anticipate this and this is in our plan. So we don't expect it to impact our plan to grow our EBITDA mid-single digits -- let me give additional context also. If you just look at the Copal segment that we are about 33% of the Copal segment is tied to the FERC and across all of MPLX, it's about 20%. So it gives you some context of how much that announcement by FERC and the effect with MPLX.

Thank you.

Elvira Scotto, RBC Capital Markets.

Hey, good morning, everyone. I was wondering if you could provide some additional commentary around the new growth projects, especially in the Marcellus, what you're hearing from producer customers? And then how do you expect Harmon Creek II to ramp? .

Yeah, good, thank you. So when we talk about Marcellus, first of all, I mentioned we've got capital this year, and that project will come in service in a few years, right? It's not an immediate contribution in 2026. Mid-teens returns, clearly, producer customers. If you think about the way that we stay connected to our producer customers and just in time, a pretty important project for the long term.

It's a compressor station, 30 miles of pipeline, well connections, debottlenecking and so important as we think about providing that egress for our producer customers. I'm going to give the -- I'll pass it to Greg and have Greg tell you a little bit more about that project.

Yeah, We're really excited about the Harmon Creek III project and also the -- we're building a second full-size euthanizer as part of that project, and some compression and pipe to help feed that. It's in our gathering system in Washington County, PA. If you look at the entire Marcellus, we were at 97% utilization this last quarter. So we're -- and that's a high utilization number.

But if you put it in context, that's close to 7 billion cubic feet a day that's going through that system. So it's our largest system. It's nearly full -- so it's a great story. When we need to expand and a producer wants to expand, right now, it typically means a new plant or at least major piping and compression to help try to fill whatever existing capacity is there. So we expect Harmon Creek III which is tied into that system and has great residue takeaways capability and the demand that's there for that -- to take up that additional capacity will be will be ramped up until on our normal time frame.

Okay, thanks. And then just wanted to switch over to capital allocation. Can you maybe talk a little bit about any comments around leverage and distribution coverage kind of expectations in '26 and '27. And then just as you've become a much bigger company with a much bigger EBITDA base and you have a lot of kind of organic growth opportunity. How should we think about sort of CapEx moving forward?

Thank you. Appreciate that question. So let me start with the capital allocation. What I would tell you is when we think about capital allocation, our philosophy remains unchanged. And -- so you think about the way we've lined that out historically, it has been, first and foremost, maintenance capital than our distribution growth then our growth capital than our unit buybacks.

So that last 1 always being the 1 that we would toggle. As we look forward to '26 and '27 even as we talked about, Maryann mentioned the 12.5% distributions over the couple of years, we model that out. When we think about coverage, we don't see ourselves going on an annual basis below that comfort level of 1.3x. We're obviously also very much watching our leverage and managing to a leverage number that I think we've historically said we're comfortable with that 4.0x. And as we look forward with our capital plans as we sit today, we would not go above that 4-point times.

Great and then just on the kind of CapEx.

Yes. It's a great question. And as we think about CapEx, we think about our growth, what we really have to -- as you said, the EBITDA number keeps getting larger. So as that number grows, the number of organic projects and/or bolt-on M&A has to grow with that EBITDA number. If you continue to target a mid-teens return, right, we can do that math.

-- we know that over time, that number has to grow. So we're actively looking at that on a 5-year really basis and beyond, and we're modelling that EBITDA in as we would see these projects come online.

Okay, thank you.

You're welcome thank you

At this time I'm showing no further questions.

All right, thank you for your interest in MPLX today. Should you have more questions or would you like clarifications on topics discussed this morning, please contact us. Our team will be available to take your calls. Thank you for joining us today.

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