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Operator
Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for your patience, and welcome to the MP Materials Fourth Quarter 2021 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Dave, and I'll be coordinating today's call. (Operator Instructions)
各位好。感謝各位的耐心等候,歡迎參加 MP Materials 2021 年第四季財務業績電話會議與網路直播。我叫 Dave,將負責協調今天的會議。(接線員指示)
I will now hand over to your host, Martin Sheehan, the Head of Investor Relations from MP Materials. So, Martin, Please go ahead.
現在我將把會議交給今天的主持人——MP Materials 投資人關係主管 Martin Sheehan。Martin,請開始。
Martin Sheehan - Senior VP of IR
Martin Sheehan - Senior VP of IR
Thank you, operator, and good day, everyone. Welcome to MP Materials fourth quarter 2021 earnings call. With me today are Jim Litinsky, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MP Materials; Michael Rosenthal, Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝接線員,各位好。歡迎參加 MP Materials 2021 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:MP Materials 董事長兼執行長 Jim Litinsky;營運長 Michael Rosenthal;以及財務長 Ryan Corbett。
Before we get to Jim's, Michael's and Ryan's opening remarks, as a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation, earnings release and in our SEC filings. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation.
在進入 Jim、Michael 與 Ryan 的開場致詞之前,提醒各位,今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述,涉及未來事件與預期,並受多項假設與保留條件所限制。可能導致公司實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異的因素,已載於今天的簡報、新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。此外,我們在本簡報中亦包含部分非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。
Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation and earnings release. Any reference to our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Finally, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.
與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表,可在今天簡報與財報新聞稿的附錄中找到。今天討論中任何提及 EBITDA 之處,均指調整後 EBITDA。最後,財報新聞稿與投影片簡報已公布於我們的網站。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim. Jim?
那麼,我把電話交給 Jim。Jim?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Thanks, Martin. And thank you to everyone joining us this afternoon. I assume many of you saw or heard about the White House event on Tuesday announcing our new partnership with the Department of Defense. That was a really special day for all of us at MP Materials. So, on behalf of the entire team, I wanted to again thank the President, the Department of Defense and the State of California for all their confidence and support in us as we continue to execute on our mission to restore the full rare supply chain to the United States. It was a very busy quarter and year, and we have a lot of exciting things to discuss today.
謝謝你,Martin。也感謝今天下午加入我們的各位。我想許多人都看到了或聽說了週二白宮的活動,宣布我們與國防部建立新的合作夥伴關係。那對 MP Materials 的所有人而言都是非常特別的一天。因此,我代表整個團隊,再次感謝總統、國防部以及加州政府,對我們持續推進使命——將完整的稀土供應鏈恢復到美國——所展現的信心與支持。這是一個非常忙碌的季度與年度,我們今天有許多令人振奮的內容要討論。
First, I will recap the highlights of a remarkable year. I will then provide some more detail on our December announcement regarding our initial Stage III magnetics facility and our agreement with General Motors. Next, Michael and I will cover our plans regarding our heavy rare earth expansion and give an update on Stage II process flow. Then, Ryan will summarize our financial performance, provide color on the new S-K 1300 reserve report and discuss our upcoming investment and operating expectations. I would be remiss if I did not address the short report, so I will do that before wrapping it up with some closing thoughts. After that, we'll open it up for Q&A. So let's start with Slide 4.
首先,我將回顧這非凡一年的重點。接著,我會就我們 12 月公告的初期第三階段(Stage III)磁材設施,以及與通用汽車(General Motors)的協議,提供更多細節。然後,Michael 和我將說明我們在重稀土擴產方面的計畫,並更新第二階段(Stage II)製程流程的進展。接著 Ryan 將總結我們的財務表現,補充新的 S-K 1300 儲量報告的重點,並討論我們即將到來的投資與營運展望。我若不回應那份做空報告就不周全了,因此我會在結尾前先談這件事。之後我們將開放問答。那就從投影片第 4 頁開始。
Here is a summary of some of our major accomplishments in 2021 and year-to-date. MP has an execution-focused owner-operator culture, and I think our outstanding results demonstrate that. We produced over 42,000 metric tons of rare earth oxides in concentrate. This represents the highest production in the 70-year history of Mountain Pass and the highest primary production in U.S. history. This was driven by continued improvement in efficiencies in the plant's operations, including feed rates, mineral recoveries and plant uptimes.
以下是我們在 2021 年及年初至今的一些重大成就摘要。MP 擁有以執行為導向的「業主—營運者」文化,我認為我們出色的成果正證明了這一點。我們生產了超過 42,000 公噸的稀土氧化物精礦。這是 Mountain Pass 70 年歷史以來的最高產量,也是美國史上最高的原生(primary)產量。這主要來自於工廠營運效率的持續提升,包括進料速率、礦物回收率與設備稼動率。
Record production and a focus on efficiencies and costs, combined with strong market pricing, led to a doubling of our annual revenues and an over 5x increase in our adjusted EBITDA for 2021 compared to 2020. And significant growth in adjusted EBITDA resulted in a $154 million of normalized Stage I free cash flow. This cash flow generation meant that we were able to make significant growth investments throughout the year while maintaining around $490 million in net cash. The delta between our gross and net cash holdings is essentially the $690 million green convertible bond we issued last March.
創紀錄的產量,以及對效率與成本的專注,再加上強勁的市場價格,使我們 2021 年的年營收較 2020 年翻倍,調整後 EBITDA 更增加超過 5 倍。調整後 EBITDA 的顯著成長也帶來 1.54 億美元的常態化第一階段(Stage I)自由現金流。這樣的現金流生成,使我們得以在全年進行重大成長投資,同時仍維持約 4.90 億美元的淨現金。我們總現金與淨現金之間的差額,基本上就是我們去年 3 月發行的 6.90 億美元綠色可轉換公司債。
As we scale financially and operationally in pursuit of our mission, being a green bond issuer sends an important signal to key industry and government stakeholders about MP's commitment to the supply chain and the environment. Our fortress balance sheet positions us with firepower to continue to invest in the substantial growth opportunities in front of us, while also being better ready to both absorb any potential volatility and be opportunistic as we work to create long-term shareholder value.
在我們為使命而擴大財務與營運規模的同時,作為綠色債券發行人,向關鍵產業與政府利害關係人傳遞了重要訊號,展現 MP 對供應鏈與環境的承諾。我們堅實的資產負債表讓我們具備火力,得以持續投資於眼前龐大的成長機會,同時也更能吸收任何潛在波動,並在我們致力於創造長期股東價值的過程中把握機會。
Next, we have wonderful news on our key resource, Mountain Pass. We recently completed the new SEC Regulation S-K 1300 reserve report. Ryan will cover it more in a bit, but it extended our mine life by 11 years and our contained REO reserves by 28% versus the last study from mid-2020. We have consistently said that Mountain Pass is a unique world-class ore body, and we are happy that even more detailed outside diligence on it versus last time, has added significantly to its estimated life and value.
接下來,關於我們的核心資源 Mountain Pass,我們有非常好的消息。我們最近完成了新的 SEC Regulation S-K 1300 儲量報告。Ryan 稍後會更詳細說明,但該報告將礦山壽命延長了 11 年,且相較於 2020 年年中上一份研究,所含稀土氧化物(REO)儲量增加了 28%。我們一直強調 Mountain Pass 是獨特的世界級礦體,我們也很高興,相較上次更深入的外部盡職調查,顯著提升了其估計壽命與價值。
We will talk more about progress on Stages II and III in a moment, but I want to congratulate Michael and his team for something of the utmost importance, an outstanding safety record. We went the whole year without a lost time injury and are now actually approaching 700 consecutive days without such an injury. Our employee count has grown by over 50% since the end of 2020 to nearly 400 strong today. MP is growing in people, assets and complexity, and it is no small feat to do so safely. I want to highlight how proud I am of everyone at MP for this.
我們稍後會再談第二與第三階段的進展,但我想先恭喜 Michael 與他的團隊在一件至關重要的事情上取得成果——卓越的安全紀錄。我們整年沒有發生任何損失工時傷害(lost time injury),目前也正接近連續 700 天無此類傷害。自 2020 年底以來,我們的員工人數已成長超過 50%,目前接近 400 人。MP 在人員、資產與複雜度上都在成長,而能在安全前提下做到這一點並不容易。我想強調,我為 MP 的每一位同仁感到非常自豪。
We continue to make progress on Stage II and have had some notable recent achievements. We recommissioned our combined heat and power plant and our reverse osmosis water treatment plant. Both of these are needed for Stage II commissioning. In fact, in January, we went into island mode. This means that we are now generating 100% of our heat, power and steam on-site instead of getting it from the grid. This is beneficial for cost and operational reliability and resiliency as we further invest in Mountain Pass. The last part of our earnings deck has pictures from around Mountain Pass, so please check that out.
我們持續推進第二階段,近期也達成一些重要里程碑。我們重新啟用了熱電共生(combined heat and power)電廠,以及逆滲透(reverse osmosis)水處理廠。這兩項都是第二階段試車所需。事實上,在 1 月我們進入了「孤島模式」(island mode)。這表示我們現在在廠區內自行生產 100% 的熱能、電力與蒸汽,而非從電網取得。這有助於降低成本,並提升營運可靠性與韌性,支持我們在 Mountain Pass 的進一步投資。我們財報簡報的最後部分有 Mountain Pass 周邊的照片,請務必看看。
While Stage II progresses, separating some rare earth at Mountain Pass, a remarkable achievement in and of itself, was never our end goal. We have made clear that restoring the full rare of magnetic supply chain was what we were after, and we have also made clear that this would not happen overnight. It will be painstaking and take time. In 2020, around the time we went public, we were awarded a preliminary contract by the DoD to begin design work and study the feasibility of separating heavies at Mountain Pass.
即使第二階段持續推進、並在 Mountain Pass 分離部分稀土——這本身就是一項了不起的成就——但那從來不是我們的終極目標。我們已清楚表明,我們追求的是恢復完整的磁性稀土供應鏈,而且也明確指出這不可能一蹴可幾;這將是艱鉅且需要時間的工作。2020 年、也就是我們上市前後,我們獲得國防部(DoD)的初步合約,開始進行設計工作並研究在 Mountain Pass 分離重稀土的可行性。
Heavy rare earths, specifically terbium and dysprosium, are typically utilized in small amounts, along with significantly more MVPR in rare of magnets. These small amounts of heavies typically improve the performance of magnets of high temperatures. Therefore, successfully delivering on MP's mission meant our original Stage II process flow would get us almost all the way there, but not fully. A tremendous amount of work has gone on behind the scenes. Our team has designed, piloted and refined our technological approach. The hope was that we could expand and enhance our Stage II process flow to accelerate towards our overall goal and also grow the economic potential of our site.
重稀土,特別是鋱(terbium)與鏑(dysprosium),通常以少量使用,並與在稀土磁鐵中用量顯著更高的 MVPR 一同搭配。這些少量的重稀土通常能提升磁鐵在高溫下的性能。因此,要成功實現 MP 的使命,意味著我們原本的第二階段製程流程幾乎能達成目標,但仍未完全到位。大量工作一直在幕後進行。我們的團隊已設計、試點並精煉我們的技術路徑。我們希望能擴充並強化第二階段製程流程,以加速邁向整體目標,同時提升我們場址的經濟潛力。
The $35 million award from DoD is clearly a huge vote of confidence in MP. We are humbled and grateful, and I will talk more about what this all means in a moment. But that is not it. We are pursuing our mission on parallel fronts. We believe critical industry and government stakeholders are counting on us, so we will move as quickly as we can so long as we preserve our execution-focused owner-operator culture. Over the course of 2021, we built up our world-class MP magnetics team and we continue to grow that team. The pace has been pretty amazing, but also methodical and pragmatic.
國防部提供的 3,500 萬美元補助,顯然是對 MP 的重大信任投票。我們深感謙卑與感激,我稍後會進一步說明這一切的意義。但這還不止於此。我們正以多條戰線並行推進使命。我們相信關鍵產業與政府利害關係人對我們寄予厚望,因此只要能維持我們以執行為導向的業主—營運者文化,我們就會盡可能快速推進。在 2021 年期間,我們建立了世界級的 MP 磁材團隊,並持續擴編。進度相當驚人,但同時也有條不紊、務實且審慎。
In December, we announced we are building our first magnetics manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas, and but we signed a binding long-term agreement with General Motors as the foundational automotive customer of the facility. I am very pleased to report that we broke ground on the new facility last week. We have a long way to go, but what an incredible milestone.
在 12 月,我們宣布將在德州沃斯堡(Fort Worth, Texas)興建我們第一座磁材製造設施,並且與通用汽車簽署具約束力的長期協議,作為該設施的基礎汽車客戶。我很高興向各位報告,我們上週已為新設施動工。我們還有很長的路要走,但這是一個令人難以置信的里程碑。
Let's discuss some more specifics about it on Slide 5. Our new Fort Worth facility will convert rare earth oxides we produce at Mountain Pass into metal and, ultimately, neodymium iron boron or NdFeB alloy and magnets. Along with the groundbreaking, we are already sourcing long lead equipment. The objective is to have this facility ready to begin delivering alloy in late 2023 and magnets in 2025. We are currently planning to produce about 1,000 metric tons of NdFeB magnet per year with some additional alloy capacity, which could feed roughly 500,000 EV motors. This would consume just mid- to high single-digit percentages of our current expected Mountain Pass NdPr output. So we have significantly more runway to expand the magnetics business over time.
讓我們在第 5 張投影片更具體地說明。我們位於沃斯堡的新設施將把我們在 Mountain Pass 生產的稀土氧化物轉換為金屬,並最終製成釹鐵硼(NdFeB)合金與磁鐵。隨著動土啟動,我們也已開始採購交期較長的設備。我們的目標是讓該設施於 2023 年底開始交付合金,並於 2025 年交付磁鐵。我們目前規劃每年生產約 1,000 公噸 NdFeB 磁鐵,並具備額外的合金產能,約可供應 50 萬具電動車馬達。這將消耗我們目前預期 Mountain Pass NdPr 產出的中到高個位數百分比。因此,隨著時間推移,我們在磁材業務上仍有相當大的擴張空間。
As we position the company to enter the magnetics business, we are also expanding into magnetics recycling. And we believe MP is uniquely positioned for leadership in this burgeoning opportunity. Let me explain. There's a fair amount of waste generated in the magnetics manufacturing process. With such valuable material inputted into the process, maintaining a competitive cost structure is greatly aided by having the ability to do something with that waste. Our team has been conducting extensive piloting at Mountain Pass for the last 18 months, and some of these pilot projects include large commercial partners.
在我們布局公司進入磁材業務的同時,我們也正擴展至磁材回收。我們相信 MP 在這個快速成長的機會中具備獨特的領導地位。讓我解釋一下。磁材製造流程會產生相當程度的廢料。由於投入流程的材料價值極高,若能有能力處理這些廢料,將大幅有助於維持具競爭力的成本結構。過去 18 個月,我們團隊在 Mountain Pass 進行了大量試點測試,其中部分試點專案包含大型商業合作夥伴。
Our extraction assets and the high level of colocation in our operation means we can run a highly integrated closed-loop magnetic manufacturing process where materials are mined, refined, metallized, alloyed and then made into finished magnets. And materials created along the way can be fed back into the process. MP is now positioned to become the only truly integrated magnetic company in the world outside of China that can do this. Plus, as the world electrifies and many electric vehicles when turbines and other like assets get to the end of their lives, MP expects to participate in recycling those end-of-life permanent magnets. Our full integration means we believe we will be able to insert those third-party feeds into various points in our asset base. Michael will explain more on this in a moment.
我們的萃取資產以及營運高度共址的特性,意味著我們可以運行高度整合的閉環磁材製造流程:材料被開採、精煉、金屬化、合金化,然後製成成品磁鐵;而過程中產生的材料也可回饋至流程中。MP 現在有望成為中國以外全球唯一真正具備此能力的整合型磁材公司。此外,隨著全球電氣化推進,當許多電動車、風力渦輪機及其他類似資產到達使用年限終點時,MP 預期將參與這些報廢永久磁鐵的回收。我們的全面整合意味著,我們相信能將這些第三方來料在我們資產基礎的不同環節導入。Michael 稍後會進一步說明。
Lastly, as I mentioned earlier, we have a binding long-term agreement with General Motors as the foundational automotive customer for MP Magnetics and our Fort Worth facility. We expect a gradual production ramp to begin in late 2023, beginning with the supply of alloy to GM with a gradual expansion into finished magnet production in the 2025 time frame. With recent efforts around our heavy expansion and breaking ground in Fort Worth, we believe MP has pulled forward our mission by at least a couple of years, at least certainly compared to where we expected to be at this point back when we went public.
最後,如我先前提到的,我們與通用汽車(General Motors)簽有具約束力的長期協議,作為 MP Magnetics 與我們沃斯堡設施的基礎汽車客戶。我們預期自 2023 年底開始逐步爬坡量產,先向 GM 供應合金,並在 2025 年前後逐步擴展至成品磁鐵生產。隨著近期在大規模擴張與沃斯堡動土方面的努力,我們相信 MP 至少把我們的使命提前了幾年,至少相較於我們上市時在此時點原本預期的進度而言更是如此。
We believe this is incredibly significant for American industry. GM and other future MP customers will have access to rare earth magnets produced in the U.S. entirely of sustainable U.S. sourced materials. That is simply not possible today given the state of the supply chain. And filling this void is significant to both our businesses and the American economy overall.
我們相信這對美國產業極具意義。GM 以及未來其他 MP 客戶將能取得在美國生產、且完全由可永續的美國來源材料製成的稀土磁鐵。以目前供應鏈的狀況,這在今天根本不可能做到。而填補這個缺口,對我們雙方的業務以及整體美國經濟都具有重大意義。
Let's move on to Slide 6. As the long list of achievements on the last 2 slides suggest, we entered 2022 in a much stronger position than a year ago. The electrification of the global economy, even as the capital markets appear more challenging recently, is accelerating. Our business developments clearly suggest that critical industry and government stakeholders want MP to become a Western champion in our industry, and they want it to happen as quickly as possible.
讓我們進到第 6 張投影片。如同前兩張投影片上那長串成就所示,我們在 2022 年的起點比一年前強得多。即便近期資本市場看起來更具挑戰,全球經濟的電氣化仍在加速。我們的業務發展清楚顯示,關鍵產業與政府利害關係人希望 MP 成為我們產業中的西方領軍者,而且希望越快越好。
By the way, our Stage II heavy rare earth addition is being designed to accept third-party feed. So that should expand what we thought of as our previous light and heavy rare earth output potential. And it also means we can help other Western projects develop as we become a potential customer for their intermediate materials. We realize the scale of this opportunity and we are pushing forward on parallel paths. We know that we must execute with precision and we must get it right. Against this backdrop, we continue to see many supply chain, labor, logistical and materials challenges throughout the global economy. I would say that in Q4 of 2021, we did not make as much progress on Stage II construction as we had hoped. Issues around Omicron created labor issues all around the economy that were well documented this past quarter, and we, along with our contractors and suppliers, certainly saw our share of that.
順帶一提,我們的第二階段(Stage II)重稀土新增產能正被設計為可接收第三方來料。因此,這將擴大我們先前對輕、重稀土產出潛力的想像。這也意味著,當我們成為其半成品材料的潛在客戶時,我們可以協助其他西方專案發展。我們理解這個機會的規模,並正沿著多條平行路徑推進。我們知道必須精準執行,且必須把事情做對。在此背景下,我們仍持續看到全球經濟中許多供應鏈、勞動力、物流與材料方面的挑戰。我會說,在 2021 年第四季,我們在第二階段建設上的進展不如預期。Omicron 相關問題在整體經濟中造成勞動力問題,這在上季已有充分報導,而我們與承包商及供應商也確實承受了其中一部分影響。
Executing in expansion and scope changes in an inflationary environment is testing all of us. Nothing is happening as fast as we would like, but we remain relentless. Engineering and procurement are wrapping up and construction is accelerating. We are still targeting to mechanically complete their light rare portion, i.e., separation, finishing and related infrastructure of our Stage II later this year. But with the expanded construction and scope around heavies and recycling, next year won't be a full normalized year, but we still expect to achieve full run rate production volumes in 2023.
在通膨環境下執行擴張與範疇變更,對我們所有人都是考驗。沒有任何事情如我們所願那麼快,但我們仍持續不懈。工程設計與採購正接近收尾,施工正在加速。我們仍以今年稍晚完成第二階段輕稀土部分(亦即分離、精製及相關基礎設施)的機械完工為目標。但由於重稀土與回收相關的擴建施工與範疇擴大,明年不會是完全正常化的一年,不過我們仍預期在 2023 年達到滿載運轉的產量水準。
Ryan is going to discuss our current expectations around CapEx, which was previewed a bit in our announcement on Tuesday and what this all means financially and operationally in a bit. But let me be crystal clear in saying that all this is extremely exciting. We are generating significant operating cash flow today. We are pulling forward the opportunity. We believe we are investing at high returns on capital. We believe everyone, well, almost everyone, is rooting for our success, and we believe we are creating significant enterprise value.
Ryan 將在稍後討論我們目前對資本支出(CapEx)的預期;我們在週二的公告中已先行透露一些,並說明這在財務與營運上代表什麼。但我想非常清楚地表示,這一切都令人極為振奮。我們目前正在產生可觀的營運現金流。我們正在把機會提前。我們相信我們的投資具有高資本報酬。我們相信大家——嗯,幾乎所有人——都在期待我們成功,而我們也相信我們正在創造顯著的企業價值。
I'll be back after Ryan, but before that, let me turn it over to Michael for more process details around Stages II and III. Michael?
在 Ryan 之後我會再回來,但在那之前,讓我把時間交給 Michael,請他就第二與第三階段的流程細節做更多說明。Michael?
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Thanks, Jim. I'd like to start by saying that I couldn't agree more with how exciting the heavy rare earth opportunity is for us. I'd also like to acknowledge our engineering, analytical, maintenance and project team with the significant work that went into this analysis and design. I'd also like to thank the Department of Defense for its support of our project and helping spearhead the government's effort into securing this critical supply chain in the United States.
謝謝,Jim。我想先說,我完全同意重稀土機會對我們而言有多麼令人振奮。我也想肯定我們工程、分析、維護與專案團隊在本次分析與設計中投入的大量工作。同時也要感謝國防部(Department of Defense)對我們專案的支持,並協助帶頭推動政府在美國確保這條關鍵供應鏈的努力。
When we initially conceived the Stage II flowsheet, which is included on Slide 7, we had anticipated heavy rare earth separation being a longer-term possibility. However, as our strategy for Stage III magnetic became more clearly defined and as our magnet recycling capability in support of this project and long-term environmental sustainability has progressed, the necessity and attractiveness of HREE separation sometimes called SEG+ separation has become more apparent.
當我們最初構想第二階段的流程圖(flowsheet,見第 7 張投影片)時,我們原本預期重稀土分離會是較長期的可能性。然而,隨著我們第三階段磁材策略更清晰地成形,以及我們為支持此專案與長期環境永續而推進的磁鐵回收能力持續進展,重稀土分離(有時稱為 SEG+ 分離)的必要性與吸引力變得更加明顯。
You can see a simplified depiction of where the heavy rare earth circuit will fit into the flow on the bottom of the slide. As Jim mentioned, certain HREE, namely terbium and dysprosium, add key functionality to high-end magnetics. Our Stage III operation and third-party customers are interested in a stable domestic source of these elements in the same way they are eager for NdPr.
你可以在投影片下方看到重稀土迴路將如何嵌入流程的簡化示意。如 Jim 所提,某些重稀土元素,特別是鋱(terbium)與鏑(dysprosium),能為高階磁材提供關鍵功能。我們的第三階段營運與第三方客戶,對這些元素穩定的國內供應來源的需求,與他們對 NdPr 的渴求同樣迫切。
Magnet recycling is a critical component of metal and magnet manufacturing. The U.S. must have both capabilities. [Scent magnet] for metal and magnet facility process waste contains NdPr, along with terbium and dysprosium in many cases. But process waste, a lot of cost was sunk into that material before it fell out of the process. Therefore, the waste must be turned back into a valuable commodity. To do so, the elements in some cases must be reseparated. Therefore, heavy rare earth separation becomes even more intricately linked to magnet production and our Stage III plan.
磁鐵回收是金屬與磁鐵製造的關鍵組成部分。美國必須同時具備這兩種能力。[Scent magnet] 用於金屬與磁鐵設施的製程廢料含有 NdPr,且在許多情況下也含有鋱與鏑。但製程廢料在脫離流程之前,已經投入了大量成本。因此,必須將廢料重新轉化為有價商品。為此,在某些情況下必須重新分離其中的元素。因此,重稀土分離與磁鐵生產以及我們的第三階段計畫之間的連結變得更加緊密。
You can see on the top right how recycled magnet materials could be fed back into our separation process at Mountain Pass. Over the past 18 months, partially supported by our initial DoD brand, we have been working towards a technical and operational plan for HREE separation. We have also evaluated how to incorporate heavy rare earth into the Stage II flow sheet and our site infrastructure. This has contributed to ongoing R&D and capital expenditures throughout 2021.
你可以在右上角看到,回收的磁鐵材料如何被回送至我們在 Mountain Pass 的分離流程。在過去 18 個月中,在我們最初的 DoD 品牌部分支持下,我們一直在推進重稀土分離的技術與營運方案。我們也評估了如何將重稀土納入第二階段流程圖以及我們的場址基礎設施。這也促成了我們在 2021 年持續進行的研發與資本支出。
As our confidence increased and supply chain concerns intensified, last summer, we decided to prepurchase certain equipments that we believe would help improve the efficiency of a future heavy rare earth separation plan. The heavy rare earth circuit largely runs in parallel to the existing Stage II plan. However, there are also important tie-ins to common site infrastructure, storage and systems that minimize our environmental footprint, improve efficiency and reduce costs.
隨著我們信心提升且供應鏈疑慮加劇,去年夏天我們決定預先採購某些設備,我們相信這將有助於提升未來重稀土分離方案的效率。重稀土迴路在很大程度上與既有的第二階段計畫並行運作。然而,它也需要與共用的場址基礎設施、儲存與系統進行重要的銜接,以將我們的環境足跡降到最低、提升效率並降低成本。
Importantly, as we consider third-party feedstocks to bolster our heavy rare earth supply, there is an expectation that these feedstocks may come with additional light rare earth elements as well, namely NdPr, lanthanum and cerium. We have long factored this in, but this has resulted in some additional scope to Stage II, primarily related to sizing and optimization of existing rather than new assets to accommodate the potential for higher light rare earth volumes that may come with heavy separation. As such, these investments will help to seamlessly integrate heavy rare earth separation and magnet recycling into the broader Stage II plan and will be factored into our CapEx budget, which Ryan will touch on in a moment.
重要的是,當我們考慮採用第三方原料以強化我們的重稀土供應時,預期這些原料也可能同時含有額外的輕稀土元素,亦即 NdPr、鑭與鈰。我們長期以來已將此納入考量,但這也使第二階段(Stage II)的範疇有所增加,主要與既有資產(而非新資產)的規模配置與最佳化相關,以因應重分離流程可能帶來的較高輕稀土產量。因此,這些投資將有助於把重稀土分離與磁材回收無縫整合進更廣泛的第二階段計畫,並將納入我們的資本支出(CapEx)預算中,Ryan 稍後會進一步說明。
We expect to implement changes to existing assets to support new and increased flows, and we must expect some disruption as we incorporate additional assets into the Stage II scope. Our long-term interest in supporting a diverse rare earth supply chain is core to our mission. With the announcement of the first step of our Stage III plan and the DoD support for our heavy rare earth project, we now have additional stakeholders sooner than we might have anticipated, ensuring the quality and sustainability of the Mountain Pass feed into the supply chain is a preeminent importance. We will, therefore, be especially prudent with our Stage II ramp and we'll prioritize assuring our long-term success over meeting any short-term deadline.
我們預期將對既有資產進行變更,以支援新的與增加的物流量;同時,在我們把額外資產納入第二階段範疇時,也必須預期會有一定程度的干擾。我們長期致力於支持多元化稀土供應鏈,這是我們使命的核心。隨著我們宣布第三階段(Stage III)計畫的第一步,以及美國國防部(DoD)對我們重稀土專案的支持,我們比原先預期更早迎來更多利害關係人;因此,確保 Mountain Pass 供應鏈投入料的品質與永續性至關重要。基於此,我們在第二階段的爬坡(ramp)將特別審慎,並將優先確保長期成功,而非追求任何短期期限。
Moving to Slide 8. The purpose of this slide is simply to show the unique advantage we have as a vertically integrated company. We can take the waste for magnet manufacturing or end-of-life magnet and determine the optimal place in the end-to-end flow to recycle the material, whether it be into the mills or back to Mountain Pass to produce fresh oxide. This level of integration will enable us to maximize value and minimize cost and is highly unique in the global magnet industry.
接著看投影片 8。本頁的目的只是展示我們作為一家垂直整合公司的獨特優勢。我們可以將磁材製造的廢料或報廢磁材納入端到端流程,判斷在整體流程中最適合的回收位置——無論是回到磨礦系統,或送回 Mountain Pass 以生產新的氧化物。這種整合程度使我們能夠最大化價值並最小化成本,在全球磁材產業中極為罕見。
We have also been working with large commercial partners on piloting these processes at scale volumes at Mountain Pass and at vendor's location.
我們也一直與大型商業合作夥伴合作,在 Mountain Pass 以及供應商場址,以規模化的處理量對這些流程進行試點驗證。
Hopefully, this slide and the previous one give you a better feel on the process flows and a visual understanding of some of the complexities that we will continue with, particularly as we incorporate heavy separation and magnet recycling into our Mountain Pass processes.
希望這一頁與前一頁能讓各位更清楚流程走向,並以視覺方式理解我們將持續面對的一些複雜性,特別是在我們把重分離與磁材回收納入 Mountain Pass 製程之際。
With that, I will turn it over to Ryan. Ryan?
接下來,我把時間交給 Ryan。Ryan?
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Thanks, Michael. As Jim already hit on the highlights, I will quickly go over our annual results starting on Slide 10. In 2021, we saw modest improvements on all of the key inputs in our production growth algorithm, uptime, feed rates and recoveries all improved compared to 2020, resulting in a 10% increase in total rare earth production. You can see on the bottom left, compared to 2019, production is up over 50%. Obviously from here, incremental improvements get more challenging, but Michael and the team continue to focus on making thoughtful improvements to continually drive higher volumes, which we expect will primarily come through improved mineral recoveries.
謝謝,Michael。正如 Jim 已經提到重點,我將從投影片 10 開始,快速回顧我們的年度成果。2021 年,我們在生產成長演算法中的所有關鍵投入項目都出現溫和改善:開工率(uptime)、進料速率(feed rates)與回收率(recoveries)相較 2020 年皆有所提升,帶動稀土總產量增加 10%。你可以在左下角看到,與 2019 年相比,產量已提升超過 50%。顯然,從這裡開始,進一步的增量改善會更具挑戰,但 Michael 與團隊仍持續專注於審慎的改善措施,以不斷推動更高產量;我們預期這主要將透過提升礦物回收率來實現。
On the top left, you'll see that we continue to ship virtually everything we produce despite a very challenging shipping and logistics environment. And moving to the right, you can see the strong growth in pricing, driven primarily by strong demand for our concentrate product due to the contained NDPR. I'll discuss that a bit more later. Finishing up on the bottom right, you can see that production costs were up modestly versus last year, but when excluding about $140 per metric ton of Stage II pre-commissioning costs that hit the P&L, production costs were actually down slightly year-over-year despite the inflationary environment.
在左上角,你會看到即使在極具挑戰的航運與物流環境下,我們仍持續出貨幾乎所有的產出。再往右看,你可以看到價格的強勁成長,主要由於市場對我們精礦產品的強勁需求所驅動,原因在於其中所含的 NdPr。我稍後會再多談一些。最後在右下角,你可以看到生產成本較去年小幅上升;但若排除約每公噸 140 美元、計入損益表(P&L)的第二階段(Stage II)試車前(pre-commissioning)成本,則在通膨環境下,我們的生產成本其實較去年略為下降。
Moving to Slide 11. Jim mentioned the strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the year, which you can see in the top 2 graphs. And on the bottom 2, you can see the leverage we get from solid production and shipping with strong pricing demonstrated by 2021's adjusted EBITDA margin nearly doubling to 66%. On the bottom right, you can see that much of our adjusted EBITDA flows through to adjusted net income. We believe these results show the power of our Mountain Pass sits on the cost curve, and we look forward to building on this success in 2022.
接著看投影片 11。Jim 提到本年度營收與調整後 EBITDA 的強勁成長,你可以在上方兩張圖看到。而在下方兩張圖,你可以看到在穩健的生產與出貨、搭配強勁定價下所帶來的營運槓桿,使 2021 年的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率幾乎翻倍至 66%。在右下角,你可以看到我們的調整後 EBITDA 有很大一部分轉化為調整後淨利。我們認為這些結果展現了 Mountain Pass 在成本曲線上的優勢,我們也期待在 2022 年延續並擴大這項成功。
Moving to Slide 12 and our fourth quarter results. Again, a similar story on a year-over-year basis with production volumes up about 10%, driven by improved feed rates and mineral recovery, slightly offset by lower uptime in the quarter. Sequentially, you'll see our production volumes declined about 14%, which was driven by our biannual maintenance shutdown occurring in Q4 this year as we discussed on our last call. While the shutdown was very successful, the starting was a bit choppier than we had hoped for, which slightly delayed our ramp back up to full efficiency.
接著看投影片 12 與我們的第四季成果。同樣地,年對年來看故事相似:產量約增加 10%,主要由進料速率與礦物回收率改善所帶動,但部分被本季較低的開工率略為抵銷。若以季對季來看,你會看到產量約下降 14%,原因是我們如同在上次電話會議所提到的,今年第四季進行了每半年一次的維修停機。雖然停機非常成功,但重新啟動的過程比我們希望的更顛簸一些,因而使我們回升至滿載效率的爬坡略有延遲。
And similar to the annual results, shipments for the most part tracked our production volumes with some lumpiness in the actual timing of shipments causing most of the variability between our year-over-year comparisons. And you'll recall, despite all of the shipping challenges, we had an exceptional quarter of shipping in the third quarter as we not only were able to ship our record quarterly production then but also catch up on modest inventories that have built up from earlier quarters in 2021.
而與年度結果類似,出貨量大致跟隨產量變化;實際出貨時點的些許不均,造成我們年對年比較中的多數波動。你也會記得,儘管航運挑戰重重,我們在第三季仍有非常出色的出貨表現:不僅出貨了當季創紀錄的產量,也消化了 2021 年前幾季累積的少量庫存。
Shipping and logistics then became even more challenging early in Q4 before finally starting to ease at the very tail end of the quarter, which left us with another very back-end loaded shipping schedule, which is reflected in our higher than average receivables, which, similar to last quarter, we have since fully collected. On the right side, you see the continued growth in realized pricing driven by the tighter supply-demand and concentrate, driven by NdPr pricing, as reflected in the 31% sequential increase in our realized price.
第四季初期航運與物流變得更加艱難,直到季末最後階段才開始緩解,導致我們的出貨排程再次高度集中在季末;這也反映在我們高於平均的應收帳款上,而這些款項如同上季一樣,我們之後已全數收回。右側你可以看到已實現價格持續成長,反映供需更為吃緊,以及精礦價格受 NdPr 價格帶動;因此,我們的已實現價格季增 31%。
And on the bottom right, production costs were down year-over-year, even with some additional pre-commissioning costs for Stage II as we remain resolutely focused on costs with a bit of an easier year-over-year compare, given our reagent testing in Q4 of 2020 that we previously discussed. Sequentially, costs were up about 5%, all due to higher costs associated with Stage II pre-commissioning as efficiencies, ex Stage II costs, offset cost inflation. These Stage II related costs totaled about $200 per metric ton. So excluding these, costs would have been down approximately 17% year-over-year.
在右下角,生產成本年對年下降,即便我們仍有一些第二階段(Stage II)的試車前成本;我們依然堅定聚焦成本,同時年對年的比較也較為有利,因為 2020 年第四季我們曾進行試劑測試(reagent testing),先前已討論過。季對季來看,成本約上升 5%,完全是由第二階段試車前相關的較高成本所致;在扣除第二階段成本後的效率提升,抵銷了成本通膨。這些第二階段相關成本合計約每公噸 200 美元。因此,若排除這些成本,年對年成本約可下降 17%。
As for our quarterly financials on Slide 13, you can see our revenues were flat sequentially as lower shipments were offset by improved pricing with year-over-year revenues more than doubling. Moving to the top right, the same story can be told for adjusted EBITDA with the strong leverage from pricing and our efficient operations resulting in improved margins both sequentially and year-over-year. And just like our annual chart, our growth and adjusted EBITDA nicely converted to adjusted net income.
至於投影片 13 的季度財務數據,你可以看到我們的營收季對季持平,因出貨量下降被價格改善所抵銷;而年對年營收則增加逾一倍。再看右上角,調整後 EBITDA 也呈現相同脈絡:在定價帶來的強勁槓桿與我們高效率營運的支撐下,利潤率無論季對季或年對年皆有所提升。而且就像年度圖表一樣,我們的成長與調整後 EBITDA 也良好地轉化為調整後淨利。
And lastly, on our financials on Slide 14. The strong EBITDA from Stage I in large part flows through to our normalized Stage I free cash flow after adjusting for the $55 million of paydown of the Shenghe offtake agreement and about $113 million of growth CapEx. Growth CapEx consisted partly of Stage II optimization spend, in addition to the cost for recommissioning our combined heat and power and water treatment plant as well as other investments primarily at Mountain Pass.
最後,看投影片 14 的財務項目。第一階段(Stage I)的強勁 EBITDA 在很大程度上轉化為我們常態化的第一階段自由現金流;在調整了對盛和(Shenghe)包銷(offtake)協議的 5,500 萬美元償付,以及約 1.13 億美元的成長型資本支出(growth CapEx)後仍是如此。成長型資本支出部分包含第二階段最佳化支出,另也包括我們熱電聯產(combined heat and power)與水處理廠的重新啟用成本,以及其他主要位於 Mountain Pass 的投資。
I would also like to point out that as of the end of the fourth quarter, there was just over $16 million remaining on our offtake agreement with Shenghe and that remaining $16 million should be paid off by the end of the first quarter of 2022. That will mark the end of our offtake agreement with Shenghe and therefore the recruitment mechanism, which will provide a nice step-up in GAAP operating cash flow for 2022. As you can see on the chart, removing this recruitment feature and all else equal, our GAAP operating cash flow would be $55 million higher.
我也想指出,截至第四季末,我們與盛和(Shenghe)的包銷協議尚餘略高於 1,600 萬美元,而這剩餘的 1,600 萬美元應可在 2022 年第一季末前償清。這將標誌著我們與盛和的包銷協議結束,因而也將終止該回收機制(recruitment mechanism),並在 2022 年為 GAAP 營業現金流帶來一個不錯的躍升。如圖表所示,若移除這項回收特性且其他條件不變,我們的 GAAP 營業現金流將高出 5,500 萬美元。
With the offtake agreement nearly complete, we have recently received offers from several potential distributors, off-takers and refiner groups. Our goal is to maximize our profitability and minimize the various risks associated with exporting nearly 80,000 metric tons of concentrate into China. As market demand has grown, we have also begun laying the groundwork for strategic supply relationships with large multinational customers who are interested in tracing their supply chain back to our ore body. While we are producing and selling rare earth concentrate into China, we expect to continue distributing via Shenghe to our various end customer refiners, which allows us to leverage in-place logistics for a material until we ramp the direct sales of oxides to customers located primarily outside of China.
隨著包銷協議接近完成,我們近期已收到數家潛在經銷商、承購方(off-takers)與精煉商集團的提案。我們的目標是在將近 80,000 公噸精礦出口至中國所伴隨的各項風險中,最大化獲利並將風險降至最低。隨著市場需求成長,我們也開始為與大型跨國客戶建立策略性供應關係奠定基礎;這些客戶有興趣將其供應鏈追溯至我們的礦體。當我們仍在生產並將稀土精礦銷往中國時,我們預期將持續透過盛和向各終端客戶精煉商進行分銷,這使我們能夠利用既有的物流體系來處理相關物料,直到我們逐步提升對主要位於中國以外客戶的氧化物直接銷售。
Moving to Slide 15. As Jim pointed out, one of the most exciting highlights in the quarter was the completion of our updated reserve report in line with new S-K 1300 regulations. This resulted in a suggested mine life of 35 years, assuming consistent feed rates to the mill, which is an increase of roughly 11 years from our last estimate done in July of 2020. This was a very comprehensive program, which included completing an updated geotechnical drilling program, a revised and updated geological block model and updates of product prices, including the improved economics of Stage II as well as our latest operating costs.
接著看第 15 張投影片。如 Jim 所指出,本季最令人振奮的亮點之一,是我們依據新的 S-K 1300 法規完成了更新版的儲量報告。該報告在假設磨礦廠進料速率維持一致的情況下,建議礦山壽命為 35 年,較我們上一次於 2020 年 7 月完成的估算增加約 11 年。這是一項非常全面的計畫,包含完成更新的岩土工程鑽探計畫、修訂並更新的地質區塊模型,以及產品價格更新(包括第二階段(Stage II)經濟性改善)與我們最新的營運成本。
I would also note that we believe the results are based off of conservative estimates for most of the key variables, including long-term pricing and volumes. An example of the conservatism we see is the economic cut-off grade used in the report of 2.49% for our reserves is higher than many producing mines today. We expect to investigate upstream technologies that over time should allow us to efficiently process these lower grade ores and better incorporate the lower-grade material in our ore body into our mine planning and reserves. The resulting analysis showed a 43% increase in proven and probable ore reserves to a little over 27 million metric tons and a roughly 380,000 metric ton or 28% increase in the rare earths contained in that ore.
我也要指出,我們認為結果在多數關鍵變數上是以保守估計為基礎,包括長期價格與產量。我們所看到的保守性例子之一,是報告中用於儲量的經濟截止品位為 2.49%,高於目前許多在產礦山。我們預期將研究上游技術,隨時間推進應可讓我們更有效率地處理這些較低品位礦石,並在礦山規劃與儲量中更好地納入礦體中的低品位物料。分析結果顯示,探明與概略礦石儲量增加 43%,至略高於 2,700 萬公噸,且該礦石所含稀土增加約 38 萬公噸(或 28%)。
In addition, the report highlights a further 457,000 metric tons of indicated and inferred rare earth resources not currently in the reserve that we will look to incorporate over time. Needless to say, we are really pleased with this update as it solidifies our belief and what a vast resource we have in Mountain Pass to continue feeding our downstream vision, the economics of which, of course, are not yet captured here.
此外,報告亦強調另有 457,000 公噸目前尚未納入儲量的指示與推定稀土資源,我們將隨時間推進把它們納入。毋庸置疑,我們對這次更新非常滿意,因為它鞏固了我們的信念,也再次證明 Mountain Pass 擁有龐大的資源,可持續支撐我們的下游願景;當然,該願景的經濟效益目前尚未在此反映。
Moving on to the next slide. And before I turn it back over to Jim to wrap up, I wanted to give you some color on our near-term investment levels. At the White House on Tuesday, we committed to investing approximately $700 million into the rare supply chain through 2024. Let me start by saying that the evolution of our business reinforces the need for discipline and planning around how we are allocating capital to these various projects that support our mission. Many of these projects are now both overlapping and integrated, but all are collectively focused on one objective, how best to drive optimal returns as we leverage our asset base at Mountain Pass and execute on our move downstream.
接著看下一張投影片。在我把時間交回 Jim 做總結之前,我想補充一些我們短期投資水準的背景。本週二在白宮,我們承諾在 2024 年前向稀土供應鏈投資約 7 億美元。我先說明,我們業務的演進更凸顯在如何將資本配置到支持使命的各項專案上,需要紀律與規劃。這些專案如今多有重疊並彼此整合,但整體都聚焦於同一個目標:在我們運用 Mountain Pass 的資產基礎並推進下游布局時,如何最佳化報酬。
The $700 million investment includes: one, the completion of Stage II, of which a significant portion was still left to be spent as of the end of 2021. This now also includes the additional scope of heavy rare earth separations; 2, our initial Fort Worth magnetics facility and associated investments in recycling at Fort Worth and Mountain Pass. We note that with the groundbreaking and long lead purchasing commencing, we expect to incur a significant portion of this investment in 2022. And 3, various efficiency projects we will continue to embark on at Mountain Pass. In total, we expect to spend approximately $500 million in CapEx in 2022 and the remaining approximately $200 million net of the contribution by the Department of Defense in the 2023 and 2024 time frame.
這 7 億美元投資包括:第一,完成第二階段(Stage II),截至 2021 年底仍有相當一部分支出尚未發生;目前也包含重稀土分離的額外範疇。第二,我們位於 Fort Worth 的初期磁材(magnetics)設施,以及在 Fort Worth 與 Mountain Pass 的回收相關投資。我們指出,隨著動工與長交期採購啟動,我們預期 2022 年將發生相當大比例的投資。第三,我們將持續在 Mountain Pass 推動各項效率提升專案。整體而言,我們預期 2022 年資本支出(CapEx)約 5 億美元,其餘約 2 億美元(扣除國防部的出資貢獻)將落在 2023 與 2024 年期間。
I would imagine there will be continued additional vertical and horizontal investment opportunities in the coming years to consider, but we will update you with any material changes to our investment plan. So, what will that investment get you, our shareholders, when we are fully operating our separations capability, including heavies and our initial magnet facility is that run rate as a benchmark. And I say this with all of our caveats around forward-looking statements, for we to assume current spot pricing for the full year of 2022, we would expect to be currently at a run rate of $450 million to $500 million of annualized adjusted EBITDA from sales of concentrate, i.e., our current business.
我想未來幾年仍會有更多縱向與橫向的投資機會值得評估,但若投資計畫有任何重大變動,我們會向各位更新。那麼,這些投資在我們全面運轉分離能力(包括重稀土)以及初期磁材工廠後,能為各位股東帶來什麼?我們以該運轉水準作為基準。我也要在所有關於前瞻性陳述的但書下說明:若我們假設 2022 全年採用目前的現貨價格,我們預期目前僅就精礦銷售(也就是我們現有業務)而言,年化調整後 EBITDA 的運轉水準約為 4.5 億至 5 億美元。
It is important to note though that year-to-date spot NdPr pricing has been lower than current spot and our realized pricing also tends to move with NdPr prices with a small lag. So this run rate is not meant to be calendar year 2022 guidance. After our investments in Stage II, including heavies and the achievement of full run rate in our initial magnetics facility, our model indicates expected total adjusted EBITDA for MP would nearly double to approximately $900 million to $1 billion at current spot prices.
不過需要注意的是,今年迄今 NdPr 的現貨價格低於目前的現貨水準,而我們的實現價格也通常會隨 NdPr 價格變動並有些微滯後。因此,這個運轉水準並非 2022 曆年指引。在我們完成第二階段(Stage II)的投資(包括重稀土)並使初期磁材設施達到滿載運轉水準後,我們的模型顯示,在目前現貨價格下,MP 的預期總調整後 EBITDA 幾乎將倍增至約 9 億至 10 億美元。
We are not sharing these figures as formal guidance as we don't intend to update it with every tick of rare earth pricing or movements and other operating conditions, but we wanted to give you all detailed insight into how we are modeling plant spend and the potential returns.
我們分享這些數字並非作為正式指引,因為我們不打算隨著稀土價格的每一次跳動或其他營運條件變化而更新;但我們希望讓各位更深入了解我們如何建模工廠支出與潛在報酬。
I want to reiterate that we are in a challenging and volatile macro environment with inflation, supply chain and other challenges. So like any model, including one where the inputs involve commodity pricing, these numbers could ultimately fluctuate quite a bit. That said, I think this demonstrates that we believe our incremental investment opportunity set is both big in scale and very financially attractive.
我想再次強調,我們正處於充滿挑戰且波動的總體環境,面臨通膨、供應鏈等各項挑戰。因此,如同任何模型,尤其是輸入包含商品價格的模型,這些數字最終可能會有相當幅度的波動。即便如此,我認為這顯示我們相信增量投資機會集合不僅規模龐大,而且在財務上非常具吸引力。
Of course, we must execute, as Jim always stresses, but to recap, when aggregating the approximately $113 million of growth CapEx already spent in 2021, plus the anticipated $700 million we intend to deploy, we expect an incremental run rate EBITDA opportunity of nearly $500 million in the current pricing environment, resulting from our downstream expansion. And keep in mind that this assumes a downstream magnetics business that only consumes single-digit percentages of our upstream output. So we will be methodical, but we expect exciting further reinvestment opportunities over time.
當然,我們必須落實執行,正如 Jim 一再強調。不過總結而言,若將 2021 年已投入約 1.13 億美元的成長型資本支出,加上我們預計部署的 7 億美元合計,在目前價格環境下,我們預期因下游擴張而帶來的增量運轉水準 EBITDA 機會接近 5 億美元。並請記住,這是假設下游磁材業務僅消耗我們上游產出的個位數百分比。因此我們會循序漸進,但也預期隨時間推進會有令人振奮的再投資機會。
Lastly, I would highlight again that given the significant free cash flow generated from our current business, we believe we can continue to invest in these growth projects that significantly expand enterprise value while still maintaining a net cash balance and conservative fortress balance sheet.
最後,我想再次強調,鑑於我們現有業務所產生的可觀自由現金流,我們相信在持續維持淨現金部位與保守、如堡壘般的資產負債表的同時,仍能繼續投資這些能大幅提升企業價值的成長專案。
With that, I'll turn it back over to Jim. Jim?
說到這裡,我把時間交回給 Jim。Jim?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Thanks, Ryan. We are still on Slide 16, and I love this picture. Many of you have heard me say how proud we are that we wear the American flag on our sleeves. The mission we have taken on is important, disruptive and very challenging. We are also capitalists, and we believe what we are doing is going to be very rewarding. Yet for 2 quarters in a row, we and our shareholders have been the victim of drive-by stock rate short-seller statement.
謝謝,Ryan。我們仍在第 16 張投影片,我很喜歡這張照片。你們很多人都聽我說過,我們很自豪能把美國國旗繡在袖子上。我們承擔的使命很重要、具顛覆性,而且非常具挑戰。我們同時也是資本主義者,我們相信我們正在做的事將帶來非常可觀的回報。然而,連續兩個季度,我們以及我們的股東都成了「突襲式」放空者言論的受害者。
Sell-side analysts and investors not taken in by misleading soundbites figured things out. But according to Bloomberg reporting, at least one of these parties appears to be involved in a United States Department of Justice probe around potential trading abuses and other crimes. So, we take addressing this issue very seriously on behalf of our shareholders, many of whom are rightly very angry at those involved in producing these false and misleading short seller statements.
賣方分析師與未被誤導性口號所蒙蔽的投資人已經看清楚了。但根據彭博報導,至少其中一方似乎涉及美國司法部就潛在交易濫用與其他犯罪所進行的調查。因此,我們代表股東非常嚴肅地處理此事;我們的許多股東對於參與製造這些虛假且具誤導性的放空者聲明的人士,理所當然地感到非常憤怒。
First, I want to make clear that we respect honest, rigorous and thoughtfully researched short-selling. This is a critical market function. Some of you already know this, but I ran a sizable hedge fund for nearly 15 years before returning my outside liquid capital, so I can focus full time on creating long-term shareholder value at MP. The reason I bring that up is that I think it is fair to say that I have the appropriate background to be able to delineate fundamental short-selling from outright market manipulation and securities fraud. So let me address the fundamental claims raised about MP, and then I will give you some overall perspective in case this happens to us again.
首先,我要清楚表明,我們尊重誠實、嚴謹且經深思熟慮研究的放空行為。這是市場的一項關鍵功能。有些人已經知道,在我把外部流動資金返還之後、回到這裡之前,我曾經營一檔規模不小的避險基金將近 15 年,讓我能全職專注於在 MP 創造長期股東價值。我之所以提到這點,是因為我認為可以公平地說,我具備適當背景,能區分基本面放空與赤裸裸的市場操縱及證券詐欺。因此,我先回應針對 MP 提出的基本面主張,接著再提供一些整體觀點,以防這種情況再次發生在我們身上。
In a nutshell, the report claimed that we engaged in a scheme with Shenghe, our distributor, to inflate prices, that the Mountain Pass ore body is uneconomic, according to a data German study utilizing inputs from our predecessor 8 years ago and that a single loss shipping container was evidence of round tripped inventory. The disseminator of these false and misleading statements never called us, and its entire thesis would have been debunked by a simple phone call or frankly by reading our SEC filings.
簡而言之,該報告聲稱我們與我們的經銷商盛和(Shenghe)合謀抬高價格;並引用一份使用我們前身公司 8 年前輸入資料的德國研究數據,宣稱 Mountain Pass 礦體不具經濟性;還稱單一遺失的貨櫃是「繞回」庫存的證據。散播這些虛假且具誤導性說法的人從未致電我們,而其整套論點只要一通電話,或坦白說只要閱讀我們向 SEC 提交的文件,就會被推翻。
First, regarding the pricing of our products. Shenghe is a distributor. They are paid a commission to achieve the best possible price from a number of refiners in China, who are eager to purchase MP's product and who ultimately set the price that we receive. Trying to overlay our product sales versus import data versus the ultimate sell-through by a distributor, all with completely different timing parameters and in a rapidly rising price environment, is purposely deceptive and misleading in my view.
首先,關於我們產品的定價。盛和是一家經銷商。他們收取佣金,目標是向中國多家精煉商爭取最佳可能價格;這些精煉商都渴望購買 MP 的產品,並最終決定我們收到的價格。試圖把我們的產品銷售、進口數據,以及經銷商最終的銷售流向(sell-through)疊加比較,而這三者的時間參數完全不同,且又處於價格快速上升的環境中,在我看來是刻意具有欺騙性並造成誤導。
Next, I think the viability and economics of our ore body speaks for itself. Ryan and I covered it today and the S-K 1300, which reflects extensive outside due diligence, will also be filed along with our Form 10-K next week. Making a claim about MP based on a data German study with 8-year-old information from our predecessor that went bankrupt is also purposely misleading in my view.
接下來,我認為我們礦體的可行性與經濟性不言自明。Ryan 和我今天已經談到這一點,而反映了大量外部盡職調查的 S-K 1300 也將在下週與我們的 Form 10-K 一併提交。基於一份德國研究的資料、且使用我們已破產前身 8 年前的資訊來對 MP 做出指控,在我看來也是刻意誤導。
And lastly, we shipped roughly 4,000 containers last year. The disseminator of these misleading statements attempted to focus on one container, which got lost and was returned to sender back to Long Beach before being rerouted to its proper destination port, trying to cause the market to believe falsely without any context that a single lost container was evidence of anything, constitutes market manipulation and, again, purposefully misleading in my view.
最後,我們去年大約出貨了 4,000 個貨櫃。散布這些誤導性說法的人試圖把焦點放在其中一個貨櫃上;該貨櫃遺失後被退回寄件人、回到長灘(Long Beach),之後再改送至正確的目的港。他們試圖在缺乏任何背景脈絡下,讓市場錯誤地相信單一遺失貨櫃就是某些事情的證據;這構成市場操縱,而且同樣在我看來是刻意誤導。
To the contrary, I would argue the only thing that is evidence of is that our team is pretty darn good at logistics. So, it is clear to me that the disseminator of these false and misleading statements was not actually doing legitimate research. There was no attempt to gather and check facts with context for an actual investment thesis, and it was certainly not about acting in the public's interest. The apparent goal was stock manipulation in the hopes that harsh allegations would create enough doubt to scare our investors for a day or maybe more.
相反地,我會主張唯一能證明的是,我們團隊在物流方面相當在行。因此,對我而言很清楚,散布這些虛假且誤導性說法的人並未真正進行正當研究。他們沒有嘗試在具備脈絡的情況下蒐集並核對事實,以形成真正的投資論點;更不可能是為了公共利益。其表面目標是操縱股價,希望嚴厲指控能製造足夠疑慮,嚇到我們的投資人一天,甚至更久。
I think the government is going to deal with this kind of behavior eventually. And I think what they are going to find is that there are actors behind these false statements profiting from the chaos they create and the investors they hurt. For those who were hurt by this though, I would ask the following question. Why would someone pay for so-called "research reports" where there is basically no substantive research being done and that are already being given out to the world for free? It would seem to me that a very plausible explanation is that it is for advanced knowledge on timing of manipulation events and/or to influence the stock prices of the companies when they are actually attacked by false and misleading statements.
我認為政府終究會處理這類行為。我也認為他們會發現,這些虛假陳述背後有行為者,從其製造的混亂以及其傷害的投資人身上獲利。不過,對於因此受害的人,我想問一個問題:為什麼有人會付費購買所謂的「研究報告」,其中基本上沒有進行任何實質研究,而且內容已經免費提供給全世界?在我看來,一個非常合理的解釋是:為了提前掌握操縱事件的時點,和/或在公司遭到虛假與誤導性說法攻擊時,影響其股價。
Let's be clear. If that is the case, and there are purchases and sales of securities, that is securities fraud. I think we might ultimately see criminal charges and/or liability extend to the party's funding and facilitating those involved in disseminating false information and trading in advance on that information.
我們把話說清楚:如果確實如此,且涉及證券的買賣,那就是證券詐欺。我認為我們最終可能會看到刑事指控,和/或責任延伸到資助並促成那些散布虛假資訊、並提前依該資訊交易的人。
Before concluding on this topic, I want to address insider sales. I know I have made this point very clear since we went public, but it is worth reiterating. I am deemed the beneficial owner of 2 major blocks of shares, approximately 42 million shares in the name of JHL Capital Group and approximately 16.8 million shares in my name. The JHL Capital Group named shares are almost entirely the institutional investors who were invested with me when this journey began in late 2014, nearly 8 years ago. Those holders are foundations, family offices, insurance companies and many other institutional investors who are entitled to have their capital returned to them over time.
在結束這個話題之前,我想談談內部人賣股。我知道自從我們上市以來,我已把這點講得非常清楚,但仍值得重申。我被視為兩大股份區塊的實益擁有人:以 JHL Capital Group 名義持有約 4,200 萬股,以及以我個人名義持有約 1,680 萬股。JHL Capital Group 名下的股份幾乎全部是自 2014 年底、也就是將近 8 年前這段旅程開始時就與我一同投資的機構投資人。這些持有人包括基金會、家族辦公室、保險公司以及許多其他機構投資人,他們有權在一段時間內逐步取回其資本。
When MP went public, I went out of my way to make this very clear and even segregated my personal position from my investors entity so that I could return money thoughtfully to my investors over time, while also providing the market with more transparency around my primary personal investment alongside shareholders. For an unscrupulous party to make accusations without any contest is again purposefully misleading, in my view.
當 MP 上市時,我特別費心把這點說得非常清楚,甚至將我的個人持股與投資人實體的持股分開,讓我能在一段時間內審慎地把資金返還給投資人,同時也讓市場更透明地了解我與股東並肩的主要個人投資。在我看來,某些不肖人士在毫無對照或脈絡下提出指控,再次是刻意誤導。
Thank you to the research analysts and investors who helped clarify all that. I believe in the importance of our mission and the incredible opportunity in front of us. MP is helping to solve a major problem for industry in the country. Many great companies have been through these kinds of challenges. So we just consider it a rite of passage for MP. We will be unwavering until it is done.
感謝協助釐清這一切的研究分析師與投資人。我相信我們使命的重要性,以及眼前巨大的機會。MP 正在協助解決國內產業的一個重大問題。許多偉大的公司都曾經歷過這類挑戰。因此,我們把它視為 MP 的成年禮。我們會堅定不移,直到完成為止。
And with that, I will open it up for Q&A. Operator?
那麼,接下來我開放問答。接線員?
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much. Our first question is from Tyler Langton from JPMorgan.
非常感謝。我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通(JPMorgan)的 Tyler Langton。
Tyler J. Langton - Research Analyst
Tyler J. Langton - Research Analyst
I guess, maybe to start with sort of Stage II. Can I guess -- can you provide a little bit more detail? I know you mentioned sort of obviously Omicron and sort of labor shortage. But are there any, I guess, key sort of processes or equipment that are sort of causing the delays?
我想先從第二階段(Stage II)開始。能否請你提供更多細節?我知道你提到顯然有 Omicron 以及勞動力短缺。但是否有任何關鍵流程或設備造成延遲?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
No. I mean, I think that what we said pretty much speaks for itself. I think you've heard commentary around companies in the global economy have just the challenges this past quarter. And anytime you have one thing slip up, it can have ramifications with something else, but there's nothing specific, I would say, other than sort of what we said in the comments, Tyler.
沒有。我是說,我認為我們所說的基本上已經不言自明。我想你也聽到全球經濟中的公司在這一季面臨的挑戰。任何時候只要有一件事出差錯,就可能對其他事情產生連鎖影響;但除了我們在評論中提到的那些之外,我不會說有什麼特定因素,Tyler。
Tyler J. Langton - Research Analyst
Tyler J. Langton - Research Analyst
And then, just on the CapEx front, the $700 million, is there -- I guess, could you provide any sort of rough numbers in terms of what's going to be directed towards Stage II for Fort Worth and recycling and inefficiencies?
另外,就資本支出(CapEx)而言,這 7 億美元——你能否提供一些大概數字,說明有多少會用於第二階段的 Fort Worth、回收,以及低效率改善?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
No. I mean, I think -- so obviously we talked a lot about it in the script, but we're -- essentially because we have all of these projects, we're just -- we're transitioning to an overall CapEx number, and we're not breaking that out into individual projects. So, sorry, I can't help you on that front.
不行。我是說,我想——很明顯我們在講稿裡談了很多,但——基本上因為我們有所有這些專案,我們正在轉向提供一個整體的資本支出數字,而不會把它拆分到各個單一專案。所以抱歉,這部分我幫不上忙。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson.
(接線員指示)我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. Davidson 的 Matt Summerville。
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Analyst
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Analyst
A couple of questions. First, with respect to Stage I output and potential outages you anticipate incurring in '22, what would be a reasonable expectation for year-over-year growth in Stage I output? I guess I'm trying to get a feel for how much moving forward, you're able to push the envelope on mineral recovery?
我有幾個問題。第一,關於第一階段(Stage I)產出以及你預期在 2022 年會發生的可能停機,對於第一階段產出年增率,合理的預期會是什麼?我想了解的是,往前看,你們在礦物回收率方面能把上限推到多高?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Hey, Michael, why don't you take that one?
嘿,Michael,你來回答這題好嗎?
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Yes, as we said, we continue to work to improve the overall mineral recovery. And we think there's still significant opportunity, although the exact timing of how and when that materializes is difficult to predict. We continue to optimize our existing circuit and make adjustments and upgrades to it to make it better and better. We do expect probably to have some interruption from construction and tie-ins throughout the year, but I don't think that will be terribly material. So overall, we think that the uptime will be probably down slightly but offset by the continued improvements that you saw in the second half of the year, there was some improvement year-over-year, and we think that has not all been reflected fully into the full run rate. Not sure if that answers your question.
好的,如同我們所說,我們持續努力提升整體礦物回收率。我們認為仍有顯著機會,儘管其具體何時、以及如何實現的時點很難預測。我們持續優化既有流程迴路,並對其進行調整與升級,讓它越來越好。我們確實預期全年可能會因施工與接管(tie-ins)而有一些中斷,但我不認為會非常重大。整體而言,我們認為運轉時間(uptime)可能會略微下降,但會被你在下半年看到的持續改善所抵銷;年比年確實有一些改善,而我們認為這些改善尚未完全反映在完整的運轉率上。不確定這是否回答了你的問題。
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Analyst
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Analyst
And then, as my follow-up question, I'm curious, as the offtake agreement comes to an end here this quarter, where the home might be for where you ultimately can begin to sell Stage I material before it's obviously consumed in Stage II. And then, similarly, I would be curious as to where geographically you might be looking to source Stage II feedstock -- third-party feedstock.
接著作為追問,我想了解,隨著包銷(offtake)協議在本季結束,你們最終可能會把第一階段材料賣到哪裡——當然在它被第二階段消耗之前。類似地,我也想知道在地理上你們可能會從哪裡取得第二階段的原料——第三方原料。
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Ryan, why don't you go ahead and cover that since you covered it?
Ryan,你來說明一下好嗎?因為你剛剛也提到了。
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Matt, on that front, what we -- what I mentioned in the script is that we do intend for the majority of the Stage I product that is being sold into the market to continue to distribute that through Shenghe. Even today, we do have direct customers that we sell our Stage I product to. And we have the ability to do that to the extent we so choose. But obviously, given the preponderance of refining capacity being in China and the ability for us to easily distribute with existing in-place logistics, we do have an agreement on terms with Shenghe to continue distributing through them once the offtake is complete. We continue to see pretty strong demand directly from customers really, really far up the supply chain who want to have visibility to exactly where their materials are coming from. And so it is a good opportunity for us to continue to develop those direct relationships that we intend to leverage once we are into Stage II and selling separated products. So, I think majority will continue to make their way to where the refining is in China through Shenghe, but we continue to develop our own direct sales force as well.
Matt,關於這點,我在講稿裡提到的是:我們確實打算讓目前銷售到市場上的第一階段產品,多數仍透過盛和(Shenghe)來分銷。即使在今天,我們也有直接客戶,我們會把第一階段產品直接賣給他們;在我們選擇的範圍內,我們也有能力這麼做。但很明顯,鑑於精煉產能主要集中在中國,以及我們能利用既有、已就位的物流更容易地進行分銷,我們已與盛和就包銷完成後繼續透過他們分銷的條款達成協議。我們仍看到來自供應鏈非常上游的客戶有相當強勁的直接需求,他們希望能清楚掌握其材料究竟來自哪裡。因此,這對我們而言是個很好的機會,讓我們持續發展這些直接關係;一旦進入第二階段並銷售分離產品,我們打算加以運用。所以,我認為多數仍會透過盛和流向中國的精煉端,但我們也在持續建立自己的直銷團隊。
I don't know, Jim, do you want to cover the third-party feedstock?
我不知道,Jim,你要不要說明一下第三方原料?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, I think -- sorry, what was the question again on third-party feedstock?
好的,我想——抱歉,關於第三方原料的問題是什麼?
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Analyst
Matt J. Summerville - MD & Senior Analyst
I was just curious where geographically you would plan to potentially source that material and how much material could ultimately go through the Stage II process. I guess at the end of the day, I'm curious as to what that 6075 number looks like if you're not only processing even more concentrate than you maybe originally kind of guided to in the SPAC and now you're also willing to take in third-party material.
我只是好奇,你們在地理上計畫可能從哪裡取得那些材料,以及最終有多少材料可以進入第二階段流程。說到底,我想知道如果你們不僅處理比你們在 SPAC 時期原先指引的更多精礦,現在又願意接收第三方材料,那個 6075 的數字會是什麼樣子。
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
So, I can't tell you specifically where because, obviously, I wouldn't want to give up a strategic advantage of the company in kind of negotiating and thinking about where and how we make future investments and whatnot. But I think, to the heart of your question, it is -- as we said today, when you look at what we've outlined and you can go back to the slide where we kind of show you the whole process flow. Our ability now to take third-party feed really allows us the ability to take, say, a carbonate from somewhere else in the world, and that can go somewhere into our process in a way that will give us additional lights and heavies. And so, we also mentioned in the script that we have been sort of positioning and adjusting for that. And so, I can't -- I'm not going to give you sort of a specific number, but I think it would be correct to assume that we will be able to do sort of more than we contemplated 2 years ago.
所以,我無法具體告訴你是哪裡,因為很顯然,我不想在某種程度上於談判、思考我們未來投資的地點與方式等方面,放棄公司的策略優勢。但我認為,回到你問題的核心——正如我們今天所說,當你看我們已經概述的內容時,你可以回到那張投影片,我們在那裡大致向你展示了整個流程。我們現在能夠處理第三方原料,確實讓我們有能力,例如從世界其他地方取得碳酸鹽,並以某種方式把它導入我們的流程中,從而為我們帶來額外的輕稀土與重稀土。因此,我們也在講稿中提到,我們一直在為此進行定位與調整。所以,我不能——我不會給你一個具體數字,但我認為可以合理地假設,我們將能夠做到比兩年前所設想的更多。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from David Deckelbaum from Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD and Senior Analys
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD and Senior Analys
Jim, Ryan and Michael, I appreciate all the color tonight. I was hoping you maybe at a high level, the reserve report is obviously highly encouraging. You pointed out all the conservatism that you see in the report, and yet at the same time, you have 11 more effective economic years at 35 years. You guys have a lot on your plate right now. Stage II is taking on more complexity. You're expanding in the Stage III. But if we get back to Stage I, how should we think about expansions? And is there a correct mine life, given how robust demand is growing right now that you'd like to kind of go seek around your target over the next few years?
Jim、Ryan 和 Michael,感謝今晚提供這麼多細節。我希望你們能在高層次上談談:儲量報告顯然非常令人鼓舞。你們指出報告中你們看到的各種保守假設,但同時,你們在 35 年的礦山壽命中又多了 11 個有效經濟年。你們目前手上有很多事情要做。第二階段(Stage II)正變得更複雜,你們也在第三階段(Stage III)擴張。但如果回到第一階段(Stage I),我們應該如何看待擴產?鑑於目前需求成長如此強勁,是否存在一個你們希望在未來幾年努力達成的、合適的礦山壽命目標?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
I'll cover it, and maybe if Ryan or Michael want to chime in with additional thoughts. I think the way to think about it, I'll start with -- I'll just step back, high level. I think we may have said this on a prior call, but if you think about just the U.S. auto fleet, as that goes from ice to electric, we probably need -- just for our domestic auto fleet, 3 mountain passes. And that's obviously leaving out sort of the rest of the world and all the other applications and growth that we're going to see around electrification. So there's no question, there's a lot more supply needed. Certainly it makes sense to expand the potential output at Mountain Pass vis-a-vis pretty much at least anything I see in the Western world or, frankly, anywhere else in the world to expand what you said is our -- sort of what our Stage I output is.
我來回答,若 Ryan 或 Michael 想補充也可以。我認為可以這樣理解——我先從高層次退一步說。我想我們在之前的電話會議可能提過:如果你只看美國汽車保有量,當它從燃油車轉向電動車,我們可能需要——僅就國內車隊而言——3 個 Mountain Pass。這當然還沒把世界其他地區,以及我們在電氣化過程中將看到的其他應用與成長納入。因此毫無疑問,還需要更多供給。擴大 Mountain Pass 的潛在產出,與我在西方世界看到的幾乎任何項目相比——坦白說,甚至與世界其他地方相比——都很有意義,來擴大你所說的我們第一階段的產出。
And I would also say, it's also, frankly, helpful from an environmental standpoint in the sense that before you start doing a brand-new mine with all of the impacts that that could have with a much lower grade, worse economics, potentially other environmental challenges. It makes sense, frankly, from government stakeholders to want to see our site expanded. So, I think we obviously have a strong economic interest. And I also think government stakeholders have that interest.
我也想說,坦白講,從環境角度來看這也有幫助:在你開始開發一座全新的礦山之前——那可能帶來各種影響,而且品位更低、經濟性更差,並可能伴隨其他環境挑戰——從政府利害關係人的角度來看,他們其實更希望看到我們現有場址擴建。所以,我認為我們顯然有很強的經濟動機,而我也認為政府利害關係人同樣有這樣的動機。
Yes, you also noted this in your question, we have a full plate of projects. And so, as you can tell already at MP, we work on lots of parallel pads, and we're trying to move as quickly as we can while also getting things right. So, I guess, I would say, to your question, it's definitely something that is top of mind as far as top of mind, it's not mine, as far as things we want to think of. But realistically, that is -- we have a lot to get done first. And so, I would also just add, if you look at the reserve report -- you look at our cutoff grade and that's above where the orebody -- actual orebody grade is of a lot of other hopeful projects. So, there's certainly a lot of -- it makes a lot of economic sense for -- a lot more to be done at Mountain Pass.
是的,你在問題中也提到,我們手上有滿滿一盤的專案。因此,如你在 MP 已經看得出來,我們在許多平行的作業平台上同時推進,並且在確保把事情做對的同時,盡可能加快速度。所以,回到你的問題,我想說這確實是我們非常關注的事情——就我們想要思考的事項而言,它絕對是優先考量之一。但務實地說,我們還有很多事情要先完成。另外我也補充,如果你看儲量報告——看我們的截止品位(cutoff grade),那個水準高於許多其他抱持希望的專案之礦體實際品位。因此,在 Mountain Pass 還有很多——在經濟上非常合理的——工作可以做。
But, Ryan, Michael, do you want to cover anything on this question?
不過,Ryan、Michael,你們想就這個問題補充什麼嗎?
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
I think you hit it, Jim. The only thing I'd add is obviously, there are technologies out there that we'll continue to stare at, to Jim's point, on the lower-grade material that would allow us potentially to make some interesting changes to be able to leverage material that hasn't even needed into the reserve at this point. But I agree with everything that Jim said. Certainly with everything on our plate, we have been adding very capable teams in all of these areas. And this is one that we'll continue to look at doing the same thing.
我認為你已經講到重點了,Jim。我唯一想補充的是,顯然市面上有一些技術——如 Jim 所說——我們會持續關注,特別是針對較低品位的材料,這可能讓我們做出一些有意思的改變,進而利用到目前甚至還不需要納入儲量的材料。但我同意 Jim 所說的一切。當然,考量到我們手上這麼多事情,我們一直在各個領域增補非常有能力的團隊,而這也是我們會持續以同樣方式推進的一項。
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD and Senior Analys
David Adam Deckelbaum - MD and Senior Analys
And then, if I could just ask one more on the GM as a foundation customer and congrats on that announcement in December. You outlined, Ryan, I think, like the size of the prize in terms of EBITDA with, I think, Stage II and Stage III up and running at $1 billion. How do we think about sort of the pricing involved for -- and fabricated magnets? Are these going to be on fixed price contracts where you can just earn back a margin on the hundreds of millions of dollars you're spending on the plant? Or will there be some variability in the pricing with GM?
另外,如果我可以再問一個關於 GM 作為基礎客戶的問題,也恭喜你們在 12 月的公告。你提到,Ryan,我想你概述了獎金規模(size of the prize),也就是在第二階段與第三階段投產後,EBITDA 大約可達 10 億美元。我們應該如何看待——磁材與製成磁體(fabricated magnets)的——定價?這些會是固定價格合約,讓你們能在投入數億美元建廠後回收利潤?還是與 GM 的定價會有一些變動性?
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
What I'd say on that is, we certainly are not going to get into the specifics of our agreement with General Motors. But I would say, take sort of Jim's outage that you said many times that we firmly believe is, we're not going to rob Peter to pay Paul. So, we're not going to enter into an agreement on the magnetic side that in any way prevents us from earning a market price on our material in the upstream business. And so, I think the very exciting thing about what we're seeing develop in terms of the demand domestically and across -- globally, ex China, frankly, is a willingness for customers to look at the value that they get from the (inaudible) magnetics that we are going to provide and understand and are willing to pay a fair price and allow us to earn what we believe is a very healthy margin and return on capital to pursue this opportunity.
我會這麼說:我們當然不會談我們與通用汽車(General Motors)協議的具體細節。但我想引用你提到、Jim 也多次說過的一句話:我們堅信,我們不會「拆東牆補西牆」。因此,我們不會在磁材端簽署任何會以任何方式妨礙我們在上游業務中以市場價格出售材料、並賺取市場價格的協議。所以,我認為非常令人振奮的是,從我們看到的需求發展來看——無論是國內或全球(不含中國),坦白說——客戶願意去看他們從我們將提供的(聽不清)磁性產品中獲得的價值,並理解且願意支付合理價格,讓我們賺取我們認為非常健康的利潤率與資本回報,以追求這個機會。
And so, it allows us to continue to benefit from what we all see as very exciting supply/demand dynamics from a pricing standpoint on the upstream business, but then be able to continue to move downstream methodically, capture what we think are nice high returns on capital and continue to morph the business into something that adds an additional technological component to it, it adds some smoothing of volatility to it. And so, frankly the reason we're so excited about this is, the market has really come our way from that perspective. And so we're excited about the opportunity.
因此,這讓我們能夠持續受益於我們都認為非常令人振奮的供需動態——就上游業務的定價而言——同時又能有條不紊地向下游推進,取得我們認為不錯的高資本回報,並持續把業務轉型為一個增加額外技術成分、也能平滑波動性的業務。坦白說,我們之所以如此興奮,是因為市場在這方面真的站到我們這邊了。因此我們對這個機會感到很振奮。
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
And I would just add on that. Yes, it's hard for us to -- don't expect us to give out economics of any specific customer in the future, as you can imagine. But I do think it's just worth repeating when you think about the way the world is headed and I think we were -- we sort of highlighted this over the past year with the semiconductor issue and now in sort of the very serious situation that we see on our televisions today with Russia, Ukraine. I mean, what would a company or a country pay to have some diversity in their natural gas from Russia, right? What would they pay to have some diversity in their semiconductors?
我也想補充。是的,如你所想像的,未來不要期待我們披露任何特定客戶的經濟條件,這對我們來說很難。但我認為值得重申的是:當你思考世界的走向時——而且我想我們在過去一年已經強調過——先是半導體問題,現在又是我們今天在電視上看到的、俄羅斯與烏克蘭的非常嚴峻局勢。我的意思是,一家公司或一個國家願意付出多少代價,來讓他們的天然氣來源能夠不那麼依賴俄羅斯,對吧?他們願意付出多少代價,來讓他們的半導體供應更具多元性?
And so, you're seeing this theme kind of across the board of people recognizing that as the world economy evolves here, the ability to have a fully integrated offering to a customer has a lot of strategic value. And there are -- it is a difficult thing to create. And so, we really think that our franchise sort of provides that opportunity. And obviously, the foundational deal is suggestive of that, and we expect to have a number of customers like that in the future.
因此,你會看到這個主題在各方面出現:人們開始認知到,隨著世界經濟在此演進,能夠向客戶提供一個完全整合的方案具有很高的策略價值。而且——這是一件很難打造的事情。因此,我們確實認為,我們的特許經營(franchise)提供了那樣的機會。顯然,這筆基礎性交易也暗示了這一點,而我們預期未來會有多位類似的客戶。
And so, again, I would just highlight that the -- we believe that we will be able to get the economics of our Stage II business and then earn attractive returns on capital in our Stage III business that will add additional total dollars, which obviously is just grows enterprise value. And so, from every indication that we see as we talk to people day-to-day, that thesis, if you will, remains intact and is growing by the day.
所以,再次強調,我想指出的是——我們相信,我們將能夠取得第二階段業務的經濟效益,並在第三階段業務中賺取具吸引力的資本回報,進而增加額外的總美元貢獻,而這顯然會提升企業價值。因此,從我們每天與人們交流所看到的各種跡象來看,這個論點(如果你願意這麼稱呼)仍然成立,而且每天都在增強。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Ben Kallo from Baird.
我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
This is George Gianarikas actually. I had a couple of questions. First, on the heavies. Can you help us quantify what the opportunity looks like there from a revenue perspective?
其實我是 George Gianarikas。我有幾個問題。第一個,關於重稀土(heavies)。你們能否協助我們從營收角度量化那邊的機會大概長什麼樣子?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Well, I would just say, high level, we expect to consume all of our heavies into our magnetics business. So, it wouldn't be a separate -- yes, it wouldn't be a separate item.
我只能說,就高層次而言,我們預期會把所有的重稀土都用在我們的磁材(magnetics)業務裡。所以,它不會是一個獨立的——是的,它不會是一個獨立項目。
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
And next, with regard...
接下來,關於……
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Go ahead, Michael. I think you want to add into that.
你繼續,Michael。我想你想補充一下。
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
The dysprosium and terbium from our SEG+ that we've previously reported, that would be set into the magnetics business. Those represent the vast majority of the value. I just want to clarify that point.
我們先前已披露的、來自我們 SEG+ 的鏑(dysprosium)與鋱(terbium),會納入磁材業務。這些代表了絕大部分的價值。我只是想澄清這一點。
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
And then, you gave out some numbers, the $450 million to $500 million and the $900 million to $1 billion in EBITDA. Were those Stage I and Stage II numbers? I just wanted to make sure I understood -- I heard this correctly.
然後,你們給了一些數字:4.5 億到 5 億美元,以及 9 億到 10 億美元的 EBITDA。那些是第一階段(Stage I)和第二階段(Stage II)的數字嗎?我只是想確認我理解正確——我聽到的是這樣。
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Yes. So what we have said is, if you take current spot of NdPr, our expectation is, if you run rated Stage I, our current business, that was the first number, the $450 million to $500 million. If you look at what we expect to be able to earn with current market pricing and all the caveats that come with that, current cost structure and all those sorts of things that we expect, the $900 million to $1 billion was with us fully ramped on Stage II and with the initial Fort Worth magnetics facility ramp.
是的。我們的說法是:如果以 NdPr 的現貨價格(current spot)來看,我們的預期是——若以第一階段的額定產能運行、也就是我們目前的業務——那就是第一個數字,4.5 億到 5 億美元。若看我們預期在目前市場定價下、以及所有伴隨的但書(caveats)、目前成本結構與我們所預期的各種因素之下能賺到的水準,那 9 億到 10 億美元是指我們在第二階段完全爬坡(fully ramped)並且 Fort Worth 初期磁材設施也完成爬坡時的情況。
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
And that $450 million to $500 million assumes 42,000 metric tons production similar to this year?
那 4.5 億到 5 億美元是假設產量為 42,000 公噸、跟今年差不多嗎?
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
We haven't gotten into the specifics of that. And we try to make clear, it's not meant to be calendar year 2022 guidance, obviously given taking today's spot price is not necessarily indicative. But we haven't gotten into the specifics other than I certainly share Michael's sentiment on his discussion earlier on how we would triangulate around our anticipated production for the year.
我們沒有談到那麼具體。我們也試著講清楚,這並不是要作為 2022 年曆年的指引(guidance),尤其是以今天的現貨價格來推算顯然不一定具有代表性。但除了我確實同意 Michael 先前談到的、我們會如何圍繞年度預期產量做三角驗證(triangulate)之外,我們沒有進一步提供細節。
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
George Gianarikas - Senior Research Associate
And so, given that sort of metrics, the $700 million that you've articulated is funded through the business for the most part? Can you help us understand a little bit about the financing needs of the business over the next 2, 3 years?
那麼,在那樣的指標之下,你們提到的 7 億美元資本支出(或投入)大部分是由公司自身資金來支應的?能否協助我們更了解未來 2、3 年公司的融資需求?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Well, I mean I can take that. You can look at our balance sheet right now, right? We have a little under $500 million in net cash, right? We have $1.2 billion approximately in gross cash. So -- and if you look at the run rate of the business, look at -- take this quarter, if you want, obviously prices have moved materially since Q4, which is what we reported today. But pick your number in between. And I think if you look at the cash flow that we're generating and do that math, you can see that we believe we'll be able to fund all this with our net cash position. So, we feel very comfortable with the balance sheet and we want to maintain a fortress balance sheet because we -- and I said this in my remarks earlier, when you're in a business with volatility, you want to make sure that you can absorb volatility. But you also, in times of volatility, want to be able to be opportunistic. And I think that our balance sheet and our investment program and where we see the state of the business today affords us at that that we can do all of those banks.
我可以回答。你可以看看我們現在的資產負債表,對吧?我們的淨現金(net cash)略低於 5 億美元,對吧?我們的總現金(gross cash)大約是 12 億美元。所以——如果你看公司的營運跑速(run rate),看——就拿這一季來看也行,當然價格自第四季以來已經有顯著變動,而我們今天公布的是第四季。但你可以取一個介於其間的數字。我認為如果你看我們正在產生的現金流並做一下計算,你會看到我們相信可以用我們的淨現金部位把這些都資助起來。因此,我們對資產負債表非常有信心,而且我們希望維持一個「堡壘式」的資產負債表,因為——我先前在談話中也說過——當你身處一個波動性很高的產業,你要確保自己能吸收波動。但同時,在波動的時候,你也希望能夠把握機會。我認為以我們的資產負債表、投資計畫,以及我們今天看到的業務狀態,讓我們具備做到所有這些事情的條件。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題來自摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的 Carlos De Alba。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
So, first question is, do you envision that for Stage III, the current Mountain Pass deposit and the heavies that you have there, combined with the recycled production that you will generate will be enough to support your -- at least your first plant of magnetic plant or do you expect the pressure you need to buy from third-parties?
第一個問題是,對於第三階段(Stage III),你們是否預期目前 Mountain Pass 礦床以及你們那裡的重稀土,再加上你們將產生的回收(recycled)產量,就足以支撐你們——至少第一座磁材工廠?還是你們預期會有壓力需要向第三方採購?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Carlos, I think it would be fair to say that you should assume that we would not go do business that we didn't think we could deliver on. So, I think, you can make your conclusion that we believe we'll be able to provide the heavies that we need.
Carlos,我想可以公平地說,你應該假設我們不會去做我們認為無法交付的業務。所以,我想你可以得出結論:我們相信我們將能提供所需的重稀土。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
But not necessarily from your deposit?
但不一定是來自你們的礦床?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes. From our deposit with initial facility, yes. Obviously as we scale beyond that, it's a different question, but we do believe that we'll be able to provide from our existing deposit, yes.
是的。就初期設施而言,來自我們的礦床,是的。當然,當我們擴張到超過那個規模時,那就是另一個問題,但我們確實相信,從我們現有的礦床就能提供,是的。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
And then, the other point, I don't know if it is for you, Jim or Michael, what stage of completion is the Stage II project right now? And how do you see the progress throughout the year? I mean, basically it seems from the commentary that we should expect only really to start late in Q4 and then have a sort of gradual ramp up in 2023 until you reach full capacity at some point in 2023, right?
另外一點,我不確定是問你,Jim,還是 Michael:第二階段(Stage II)專案目前完成到什麼程度?你們怎麼看今年的進度?基本上,從你們的評論看起來,我們應該預期真正開始會在第四季末期,然後在 2023 年逐步爬坡,直到在 2023 年某個時間點達到滿載產能,對嗎?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, I think that -- as I said in the prepared remarks, Carlos, we expect to be mechanically complete. And later this year and sometime in 2023, we will be hitting run rate production. This past quarter was -- you know what's going on in the world, it was a little slower than we would have liked, but we're progressing forward and trying to execute this as quickly as we possibly can.
是的,我認為——如我在事先準備的發言中所說,Carlos,我們預期今年稍晚會達到機械完工(mechanically complete)。而在 2023 年的某個時間點,我們將達到跑速產量(run rate production)。上一季——你也知道世界上正在發生什麼——進度比我們希望的稍慢一些,但我們正在往前推進,並盡可能快速地執行。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
And final question is, in terms of the cash flow generation. So once the offtake agreement is done, you guys will be -- you will basically have a step-up in your cash from operations that you show in your financials, right?
最後一個問題,關於現金流的產生。所以一旦包銷(offtake)協議完成,你們的——你們基本上會在財報中看到營運現金流(cash from operations)出現一個跳升(step-up),對吧?
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Yes, that's exactly right. If you look at the cash flow waterfall that we provide over the course of the year in the current offtake arrangement, we obviously pay down with each sale. And so, going forward with the offtake complete, if you just take last year's numbers from an operating cash flow perspective, we'd have a step-up of about $55 million in operating cash flow purely from transitioning away from the prepaid offtake arrangement.
是的,完全正確。如果你看我們在現行包銷安排下、全年提供的現金流瀑布圖(cash flow waterfall),我們顯然會隨著每一筆銷售進行償付(pay down)。因此,未來在包銷完成後,如果你只用去年的數字、從營運現金流角度來看,僅僅因為從預付包銷安排(prepaid offtake arrangement)轉換出去,我們的營運現金流大約會有 5,500 萬美元的跳升。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
And if I may squeeze a last one. Since you were talking about cash generation, you're talking about cash regeneration, how should we think about working capital, particularly receivables, for the quarter? I guess it depends on the sequencing of the shipments. But how is it going so far? Is it a smooth quarter? And maybe you can't reduce by the quarter end the amount of receivables that you hold in your balance sheet?
如果我可以再擠一個最後的問題。既然你們在談現金產生、也在談現金再生(cash regeneration),我們應該如何看待營運資金(working capital),特別是本季的應收帳款(receivables)?我猜這取決於出貨的時序。但到目前為止情況如何?這一季進行得順利嗎?以及也許你們無法在季末把資產負債表上持有的應收帳款金額降下來?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
I'll refer you back to my remarks on sort of the pace of shipping in Q4, which was sort of a repeat of Q3 and even a bit crazier. So far, what we've seen is encouraging in terms of how the port is operating and our ability to get product out the door. I'd never, in this environment, want to make a hard prediction on timing of shipments. But I would say that the improvement that we saw towards the tail end of Q4 so far has continued.
我會請你回到我先前提到的第四季出貨節奏(pace of shipping),那基本上是第三季的重演,甚至更瘋狂一些。到目前為止,我們看到的情況在港口運作以及我們把產品送出門(get product out the door)的能力方面是令人鼓舞的。在這種環境下,我不會想對出貨時點做出硬性的預測。但我會說,我們在第四季尾端看到的改善,到目前為止仍在延續。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Lawson Winder from Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Lawson Winder。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Also, congratulations on the free money from the government. That's never a bad thing. I just wanted to ask about the $500 million of incremental EBITDA that you spoke to on the call. So, it would seem to me that the vast majority of that would likely be from the separation facility, both the combination of the light and heavy rare earth. Am I thinking about that correctly? Is the bulk of that being from that? Or is there going to be a significant portion coming from this mag facility?
另外,恭喜你們拿到政府送的免費資金。那從來不是壞事。我想問的是你們在電話會議中提到的 5 億美元增量 EBITDA。就我看來,其中絕大部分很可能來自分離(separation)設施,也就是輕稀土與重稀土的組合。我這樣想對嗎?主要增量是來自那裡嗎?還是會有相當一部分來自這個磁材設施?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
So, Laurence (sic) [Lawson], that was another creative way of asking the same question, but we haven't broken that out. But Ryan, if you want to address that, you may go ahead.
所以,Laurence(原文如此)[Lawson],這是另一種很有創意的方式在問同一個問題,但我們沒有把它拆分揭露。不過 Ryan,如果你想回應,你可以說。
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Ryan S. Corbett - CFO
Yes. I mean, look, obviously just given the scale of the upstream versus the downstream, majority of the portion would be coming from 2, including light and heavies. I think we've given -- I'd refer you back to some of our prior commentary to try to triangulate around what our expectations are from a production cost perspective. And so, you can do that math and think about what are the potential volumes that we talked about in Stage II. We told you that we were referencing that number at today's spot. And if you do that math, you do get a very attractive return on capital for the magnetics business. And so, I think there are a lot of moving parts that go into that math, but I think we've given you guys hopefully the pieces to be able to do it. And just given, as we talked about a little bit earlier, we don't want to get into the specific economics of any one customer's arrangement. We don't want to get much more detail than that.
是的。我的意思是,你看,顯然就上游相對於下游的規模而言,大部分會來自第二階段(Stage II),包含輕稀土與重稀土。我想我們已經提供過——我會請你回顧我們先前的一些評論,來協助用三角驗證(triangulate)的方式推估我們對生產成本(production cost)的預期。因此你可以做那個計算,並思考我們在第二階段談到的潛在產量。我們也告訴你,我們是以今天的現貨價格作為參考來提出那個數字。若你做完那個計算,你確實會得到磁材業務非常具吸引力的資本報酬(return on capital)。我認為那個計算牽涉很多變動因素,但我希望我們已經把拼圖提供給各位,讓你們能夠自行推算。而且如我們稍早提到的,我們不想深入到任何單一客戶安排的具體經濟條件,因此我們不想提供比這更多的細節。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Also, could I ask about sort of the time line on all the moving parts here? So -- and I'm just trying to understand Stage II. So when Stage II starts up towards the end of 2022, is it going to be a start-up for both the light and the heavy or should we think about it as being Stage II starting up for the light and then a possible future shutdown to tie in the heavies?
另外,我可以問一下這裡所有變動項目的時間線大概是怎麼樣嗎?所以——我只是想理解第二階段(Stage II)。當第二階段在 2022 年底左右啟動時,會同時啟動輕稀土與重稀土嗎?還是我們應該把它理解為第二階段先啟動輕稀土,然後未來再為了銜接重稀土而可能進行一次停機?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Michael, why don't you go ahead and take that?
Michael,你要不要先回答這個?
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
When we start up the light, one of the products that we've shown on the chart is the SEG+ concentrate. So that is a product that we had originally planned to sell and now we'll probably stock pilot, but we won't start up with the heavy rare earth separation facility until a later date, more coinciding with the start-up of the magnetics production in Stage III. We would hope to start up slightly earlier for heavies, but no -- certainly not with Stage II. So we'll be running Stage II, normalizing that operation and preparing for tie-ins for the heavy rare earth separation.
當我們啟動輕稀土時,我們在圖表上展示的產品之一是 SEG+ 精礦。這原本是我們計畫要銷售的產品,現在我們可能會先做試運轉(pilot)並備貨,但我們不會在第二階段就啟動重稀土分離設施,而是會在較晚的時間點,更接近第三階段(Stage III)磁材生產啟動時再啟動。我們希望重稀土能稍微更早啟動,但不——肯定不會與第二階段同時。因此,我們會先運行第二階段,使營運正常化,並為重稀土分離的銜接工程做準備。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
And then, how should we think about how disruptive the tie-ins of the heavies would be, actually both the heavy and the sort of recycling and recycled material handling angle of that?
那麼,我們應該如何看待重稀土銜接工程的干擾程度——其實也包括重稀土以及回收與再生材料處理這一塊的影響?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Michael, go ahead.
Michael,你來回答。
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
We would say, the primary thing is whether we have to do any facilitating investments to ensure smooth handling or any preprocessing of any additional material, third-party material, recycled material into our circuit. I wouldn't expect a hugely disruptive impact, but there will be periodic impact. And then the throughput potentially could be modestly impacted for short periods of time while that normalizes. But they are discrete in many cases. And so, the disruption wouldn't be lengthy for the most part.
我們會說,主要取決於我們是否需要做任何促成性的投資,以確保順暢處理,或對任何額外材料(第三方材料、回收材料)在進入我們流程前進行預處理。我不預期會有非常大的干擾影響,但會有階段性的影響。然後在正常化的短時間內,處理量可能會受到些許影響。但在很多情況下,這些都是離散的事件,因此大多數情況下干擾不會持續太久。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
And then, just finally, I wanted to ask a question or perhaps 2 on the updated reserve. Obviously an additional 11 years is really exciting, especially if the price of NdPr keeps rising. But what I wanted to understand is, with the lower grade material that is coming into the mine plan now, does that start into the mine plan in the near-term? Or is this something that's going to be back-end loaded?
最後,我想就更新後的儲量再問一個問題,或可能兩個。很明顯,多出 11 年的礦山壽命非常令人振奮,尤其是如果 NdPr 價格持續上漲。但我想了解的是:現在礦山計畫納入了較低品位的礦石,這會在近期就開始進入礦山計畫嗎?還是會比較偏向後期才大量開採?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
The way we've built out the mine plan is that over time, the grade will continue to sort of average down, if you will. It's not sort of a stair step in any way. And the way that we've built out to this mine life obviously is with an assumption is as you see head grade come down, you have the obvious impacts on recovery throughout the mill. I think what we see is very conservative assumptions in the report about how that will come to pass. And certainly with some of the comments I made earlier about our ability to look at potential upstream technologies and new processes to look at some of the lower grade material, I think those things would also translate very well into our ability to continue to maintain and grow recoveries, even with a lower average head grade coming into the mill over time.
我們建立的礦山計畫是隨著時間推移,品位會逐步呈現平均下降的趨勢。它不是那種階梯式的變化。我們把礦山壽命延長到現在這個程度的方式,顯然是假設當入選品位(head grade)下降時,會對整個選礦廠的回收率帶來明顯影響。我認為報告中對於這些影響如何發生採用了非常保守的假設。而且,結合我先前提到的,我們有能力去評估潛在的上游技術與新流程,以處理部分較低品位的礦石,我認為這些也會很好地轉化為我們持續維持並提升回收率的能力,即使隨時間推移進入選礦廠的平均入選品位降低也是如此。
And so, obviously when you look at the reserve slide, you see the difference between the contained REO. If you look though at recoverable REO versus contained REO, the increase is almost the same. And so, I think 25% versus 28% that you'll see in the report and so there really is not -- nothing super meaningful there, and particularly with the investments we intend to make, we feel very good about multi-decade ability to continue to improve.
因此,當你看儲量那張投影片時,你會看到所含 REO(contained REO)的差異。但如果你看可回收 REO(recoverable REO)相對於所含 REO,增幅幾乎是一樣的。我想你會在報告中看到大約 25% 對 28% 的差異,所以其實沒有——沒有什麼特別重大的意義。尤其是考量我們打算進行的投資,我們對於未來數十年持續改善的能力非常有信心。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
And then, with the estimated distribution of TREO content that you guys had previously disclosed, so with this updated reserve estimate, does that change at all?
另外,關於你們先前披露的 TREO 含量的估計分布,這次更新的儲量估算會讓那個分布有任何改變嗎?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
No, it does not change meaningfully. The distribution -- you'll see when we file the distribution that we see coming out of our con product today has been quite stable. The way the reserve report was put together, certainly with the primarily light rare earth ore body, was focused on the light rare earth content. And so, I think we have an ability particularly now that we've got real plans in place at this point that had developed and accelerated towards the end of 2021, whereas this report is actually an effective data of Q3 and then depleted to the end of the year. I think, an opportunity for us absolutely going forward is to invest some more time in incorporating better the heavy rare earth portion into the reserves.
不會,沒有實質性的改變。分布——你會看到,當我們提交(file)分布資料時,我們目前從精礦產品(con product)產出的分布一直相當穩定。儲量報告的編製方式,特別是以主要的輕稀土礦體為主,是聚焦在輕稀土含量上。因此,我認為我們有能力——尤其是現在我們已經有了實際計畫,並在 2021 年底加速推進;而這份報告的有效資料日期其實是到第三季(Q3),然後再扣除到年底的消耗——我認為我們未來絕對有機會投入更多時間,把重稀土部分更好地納入儲量之中。
I don't know, Mike, if you have any other thoughts on that on distribution over time.
我不知道,Mike,你對於隨時間推移的分布還有沒有其他想法。
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
No, you hit on it. I think the natural distribution has been very stable over very long periods of time, going back decades.
沒有,你已經說到重點了。我認為天然的分布在非常長的時間跨度內一直都很穩定,可以追溯到數十年前。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
If I could just fit in one more question, on the SEG+, 1.7% of the total TREO content, what percent of that 1.7% is DY and TV?
如果我可以再塞進一個問題,關於 SEG+:它占總 TREO 含量的 1.7%,那這 1.7% 裡面,有多少百分比是鏑(Dy)和鋱(Tb)?
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
We haven't disclosed that. I think we would prefer not to other than referring back to Jim's comment about being sufficient to handle our initial commitments for the Stage III facility.
我們沒有披露這個。我想我們傾向於不披露,除了回到 Jim 的評論:其數量足以滿足我們第三階段設施的初期承諾。
Operator
Operator
We have time for one more question and that is from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.
我們還有時間再問一個問題,來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。
Laurence Alexander - VP & Equity Research Analyst
Laurence Alexander - VP & Equity Research Analyst
Can you just flash out your thinking about recycling? I mean, any incremental color you can give us now that you've been, as you say, pursuing multiple tracks at the same time in terms of potential CapEx over the next few years? How the margin structure might compare with the Stage II, Stage III, just can you give some thoughts on how that's going to fit into the mosaic?
你能否更詳細說明一下你們對回收的想法?我的意思是,既然你們如你所說同時在多條路徑上推進,涉及未來幾年的潛在資本支出(CapEx),你現在能否提供一些額外的說明?例如利潤結構可能會如何與第二階段、第三階段相比——你能否談談它將如何融入整體拼圖?
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Well, I would say on the CapEx, I would just refer you back obviously to the statements Ryan made in the prepared remarks, just because we're not going to break out any of these specific parallel investments. We want to make sure that we guide you to an overall CapEx figure.
嗯,我會說在資本支出方面,我會請你回去參考 Ryan 在事先準備的發言中的說法,因為我們不會把這些特定的平行投資逐一拆分揭露。我們希望確保我們引導你們關注的是整體的資本支出數字。
But maybe, Michael, if you want to address sort of have any thoughts on recycling and kind of how you see it integrating with the operation, go ahead.
不過也許,Michael,如果你想談談你對回收的看法,以及你如何看它與營運整合,你可以說說。
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Michael Stuart Rosenthal - COO
Yes, I think there's 2 parts and they're similar but slightly different. The one is the process waste that would come off of magnetics plant, which -- some of which could be recycled within the magnetic operation itself in the Stage III, and some of which would come back to Mountain Pass to be separated. And the other would be end of life magnets. We've done a lot of hard work on end of life magnets in terms of digesting them, removing iron and boron and other things and producing separated oxides.
是的,我認為有兩個部分,它們相似但略有不同。第一個是磁材工廠產生的製程廢料,其中一部分可以在第三階段的磁材營運內部回收再利用,另一部分會送回 Mountain Pass 進行分離。第二個是報廢磁鐵(end of life magnets)。我們在報廢磁鐵方面做了大量艱難的工作,包括消化處理、去除鐵、硼及其他物質,並生產分離後的氧化物。
You could see it as, and probably the most efficient would be to leverage the existing assets in this existing infrastructure, which largely can handle all of these processes. There could be certain customers who may want purely recycled material that doesn't interact, which would have different economics. And we'd have to evaluate whether that's attractive or not. But I think the attractive thing for Mountain Pass is leveraging existing processes, which too essentially the exact same thing that magnet recycling requires. But having material that has fewer complex impurities and larger separation factors between the elements given that they have in the rare earth, generally neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, dysprosium, maybe very, very trace amounts of others, but it makes it a simpler separation.
你可以把它看作是——而且可能最有效率的方式——利用現有資產與既有基礎設施,這些在很大程度上可以處理所有這些流程。也可能有某些客戶希望使用完全回收的材料、且不與其他材料交互混合,那會有不同的經濟性;我們必須評估那是否具有吸引力。但我認為對 Mountain Pass 來說,吸引人的地方在於利用既有流程,而這些流程本質上正是磁鐵回收所需要的。同時,回收料的複雜雜質更少,而且由於稀土元素通常是釹、鐠、鋱、鏑,可能還有非常非常微量的其他元素,使得元素之間的分離因子更大,因此分離更簡單。
Operator
Operator
This is all the questions we have time for today. So I'll hand back over to Jim for any closing remarks.
以上就是我們今天時間所允許的所有問題。那我把時間交回給 Jim,請他做結語。
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
James Henry Litinsky - Chairman, President & CEO
Okay. Thank you, operator. And I just wanted to thank everyone. I know it was a long call today, but we obviously have had a lot of exciting things to report to you. So, thank you for your time today and we look forward to future updates. Have a good night, everyone.
好的。謝謝接線員。我也想感謝大家。我知道今天的電話會議很長,但我們顯然有很多令人振奮的事項要向各位報告。所以,謝謝大家今天撥冗參與,我們期待未來的更新。各位晚安。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a lovely day.
感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛斷電話線,祝您有美好的一天。