Moog Inc (MOG.B) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Moog fourth quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Aaron Astrachan. Please go ahead, sir.

早安，歡迎參加穆格 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想把會議交給Aaron Astrachan先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Moog's fourth quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. I'm Aaron Astrachan, Director of Investor Relations. With me today is Pat Roche, our Chief Executive Officer; and Jennifer Walter, our Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加穆格 2024 年第四季財報發布電話會議。我是投資者關係總監 Aaron Astrachan。今天與我在一起的是我們的執行長 Pat Roche；以及我們的財務長 Jennifer Walter。

Earlier this morning, we released our results and our supplemental slides, both of which are available on our website. Our earnings press release, our supplemental slides and remarks made during our call today contain adjusted non-GAAP results. Reconciliations for these results to GAAP results are contained within the provided materials.

今天早些時候，我們發布了我們的結果和補充幻燈片，兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。我們的收益新聞稿、補充投影片以及今天電話會議的演講均包含調整後的非公認會計準則績效。這些結果與 GAAP 結果的調節包含在所提供的材料中。

Lastly, our comments today may include statements related to expected future results and other forward-looking statements, which are not guarantees. Our actual results may differ materially from those described in our forward-looking statements and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings press release and in our other SEC filings.

最後，我們今天的評論可能包括與預期未來結果相關的陳述和其他前瞻性陳述，這些陳述不是保證。我們的實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性聲明中所述的結果有重大差異，並受到我們的收益新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中所述的各種風險和不確定性的影響。

Now I'm happy to turn the call over to Pat.

現在我很高興將電話轉給帕特。

Good morning, and welcome to the call. Today, we will share an update on our financial and operational performance reporting both on the full year and the current quarter. We've matured and strengthened momentum in our pricing and simplification initiatives. We're building on our strong reputation with customers to open new growth opportunities. And consequently, our results show strong sales growth, record 12-month backlog, strong margins, and improved cash flow.

早安，歡迎您的來電。今天，我們將分享全年和本季財務和營運業績報告的最新情況。我們的定價和簡化計劃已經成熟並加強了勢頭。我們正在建立我們在客戶中的良好聲譽，以開闢新的成長機會。因此，我們的業績顯示出強勁的銷售成長、創紀錄的 12 個月積壓、強勁的利潤率和改善的現金流。

Our success is driven by our employees' commitment to making this a strong company and a great place to work. And for that, I want to thank all those who have contributed to our performance over the last 12 months.

我們的成功源於我們的員工致力於使我們成為一家強大的公司和一個良好的工作場所的承諾。為此，我要感謝所有在過去 12 個月為我們的表現做出貢獻的人。

Before we get into the details of the quarter, let me first reflect on what has been another exceptional year for our company. We delivered record sales, we have a record 12-month backlog, we expanded adjusted operating margin, and produced improved free cash flow. We grew revenue by 9% to $3.6 billion. Commercial aircraft led the growth, reflecting strong market demand for our current platforms.

在我們詳細介紹本季的情況之前，讓我先回顧一下我們公司又一個非凡的一年。我們實現了創紀錄的銷售額，我們擁有創紀錄的 12 個月積壓訂單，我們擴大了調整後的營業利潤率，並產生了更好的自由現金流。我們的營收成長了 9%，達到 36 億美元。商用飛機引領成長，反映出市場對我們現有平台的強勁需求。

Military aircraft contributed through new programs with the ramp of FLRAA engineering and new production starts. Space and defense captured business across a broad range of application domains with notable success in Europe. Industrial held relatively flat despite a reduction in our industrial automation business.

軍用飛機透過新項目以及 FLRAA 工程和新生產的啟動做出了貢獻。太空和國防在廣泛的應用領域佔據了業務，並在歐洲取得了顯著的成功。儘管我們的工業自動化業務減少，但工業仍相對持平。

We expanded adjusted operating margin by 150 basis points from 10.9% to 12.4%. This is a really satisfying result given that 110 basis points of the improvement is the direct result of our margin expansion initiatives. Adjusted earnings per share grew substantially due to our sales growth and our improvement initiatives. And free cash flow was better than the prior year. While it was modest, as planned, it was stronger than prior year and on a path to further improvement.

我們將調整後營業利潤率從 10.9% 提高了 150 個基點至 12.4%。鑑於 110 個基點的改善是我們利潤擴張計劃的直接結果，這是一個非常令人滿意的結果。由於我們的銷售成長和改進舉措，調整後每股收益大幅成長。自由現金流也好於前一年。雖然按計劃進行，增幅不大，但比前一年更強，並且正在進一步改善。

Overall, this was another year of excellent financial performance. From our FY22 base year, we have now delivered 9% CAGR growth, expanded adjusted operating margin by an impressive 180 basis points, grown earnings per share, and delivered modest cash as planned this year. These results mean that we're in great shape delivering against our Investor Day goals.

整體而言，今年又是財務表現優異的一年。從 2022 財年基準年開始，我們現已實現了 9% 的複合年增長率，調整後營業利潤率擴大了 180 個基點，每股收益增長，並按今年計劃交付了適度的現金。這些結果意味著我們在實現投資者日目標方面處於良好狀態。

We've achieved this remarkable performance through unrelenting focus on our pricing and simplification initiatives. We have made great progress. We continue to learn, and we continue to improve our approach. 80/20 has become central to our transformation. It is now widely deployed and is positively impacting results. We've demonstrated a couple of years of excellent financial results and we're confident that this will continue in FY25.

我們透過不懈地關注我們的定價和簡化計劃，取得瞭如此卓越的業績。我們已經取得了很大的進步。我們不斷學習，不斷改進我們的方法。 80/20 已成為我們轉型的核心。它現已廣泛部署，並對結果產生積極影響。我們已經展示了幾年來的出色財務業績，我們有信心在 2025 財年將繼續保持這一勢頭。

Now let me provide further detail on our operational initiatives that are driving this exceptional performance. Firstly, customer focus. As an integral part of our 80/20 approach, we've completed an independent voice of customer analysis that covers approximately one third of our business. Over 120 detailed interviews provided us with detailed thematic analysis, customer experience, and Net Promoter Scores.

現在讓我進一步詳細介紹我們推動這項卓越業績的營運措施。首先，以客戶為中心。作為我們 80/20 方法的一個組成部分，我們已經完成了獨立的客戶聲音分析，涵蓋了我們大約三分之一的業務。超過 120 次詳細訪談為我們提供了詳細的主題分析、客戶體驗和淨推薦值。

It is gratifying that our customers see us as a partner who can be relied upon to apply our breadth of technical capabilities to solve their difficult technical challenges and to consistently deliver quality products. We are well positioned with our customers and nowhere to drive improvement to further strengthen our relationships.

令人欣慰的是，我們的客戶將我們視為值得信賴的合作夥伴，可以利用我們廣泛的技術能力來解決他們困難的技術挑戰並始終如一地提供優質產品。我們與客戶的關係處於有利地位，但無處可推動改進以進一步加強我們的關係。

In this context, it was fantastic to see a successful certification to flight of the United Launch Alliance Vulcan Rocket. ULA has already recognized us for our innovation, and we are proud to be the supplier of thrust vector controls for Stage 1 and Stage 2. We look forward to welcome becoming a frequent flyer. In addition, I'm delighted that recent ASA 9100 and FAA audits for both commercial aircraft and military aircraft here in East Aurora completed with no findings and positive comments on the level of staff engagement.

在此背景下，很高興看到聯合發射聯盟火神火箭成功獲得飛行認證。ULA 已經認可了我們的創新，我們很自豪能夠成為第一階段和第二階段推力向量控制的供應商。我們期待成為常旅客。此外，我很高興最近 ASA 9100 和 FAA 對東奧羅拉的商用飛機和軍用飛機進行的審計沒有發現任何問題，也沒有對員工敬業度給予正面評價。

Furthermore, our performance in delivering for our customers has put us in a great position to pursue once-in-a-generation opportunities arising from broad-based defense demand. In the quarter, we made excellent progress in securing our position on several generational pursuits.

此外，我們在為客戶提供服務方面的表現使我們處於有利地位，可以抓住廣泛的國防需求所帶來的千載難逢的機會。本季度，我們在確保幾代人追求的目標方面取得了巨大進展。

For example, our space business secured a letter subcontract for an opportunity of $100 million cost plus development program to design and produce a liquid chemical propulsion system. This is for a specialized defense application that could have substantial production follow-on.

例如，我們的航太業務獲得了一份信函分包合同，獲得了 1 億美元成本加開發計劃的機會，以設計和生產液體化學推進系統。這是針對可能有大量後續生產的專門國防應用。

Our ground-based defense business made great progress on significant US and international pursuits. This included additional orders for RCH 155 Howitzer, bringing our bookings on that program to over $40 million. We see significant future demand on this and other European platforms, with rising European defense spend.

我們的地面防禦業務在美國和國際重大追求方面取得了巨大進展。其中包括 RCH 155 榴彈砲的額外訂單，使我們對該計劃的預訂量超過 4000 萬美元。隨著歐洲國防支出的增加，我們預計未來對該平台和其他歐洲平台的需求將會很大。

Next, turning to people, community, and planet. Extreme weather events delayed customer shipments and resulted in lost production at multiple locations around the world. In the quarter, our Japanese and Chinese facilities were both hit by typhoons. Our Murphy North Carolina facility was hit by Hurricane Helena, and our Tewkesbury facility was flooded due to extreme weather.

接下來，轉向人、社區和地球。極端天氣事件導致客戶出貨延遲，並導致世界各地多個地點的生產損失。本季度，我們的日本和中國工廠均遭受颱風襲擊。我們的北卡羅來納州墨菲工廠受到颶風海倫娜的襲擊，我們的圖克斯伯里工廠因極端天氣而被洪水淹沒。

In the case of Japan, China and North Carolina, we have suffered just short interruptions to production a few days at most. However, the damage to our Tewkesbury commercial aircraft facility was severe and we expect that it will take us several months to regain full capacity. In all cases, we have robust business continuity plans and the commitment of our staff to mitigate the impact on our customers is truly remarkable.

就日本、中國和北卡羅來納州而言，我們的生產只遭受了最多幾天的短暫中斷。然而，我們的圖克斯伯里商用飛機設施受損嚴重，我們預計需要幾個月的時間才能恢復全部產能。在所有情況下，我們都有健全的業務連續性計劃，而且我們的員工為減輕對客戶的影響所做的承諾確實非常出色。

Our commitment to the planet includes our goal announced last year to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 equivalent CO2 emissions by 40% by 2030. We have a multiyear plan to deliver this goal, and I'm happy to share that we are already seeing a positive impact from these initiatives. We will soon release our next sustainability report, which will detail the impact on emissions and further commitments relating to water consumption and hazardous waste.

我們對地球的承諾包括我們去年宣布的目標，即到 2030 年將範圍 1 和範圍 2 等效二氧化碳排放量減少 40%。我們制定了一個多年計劃來實現這一目標，我很高興與大家分享，我們已經看到這些舉措所產生的積極影響。我們很快就會發布下一份永續發展報告，其中將詳細說明對排放的影響以及與水消耗和危險廢物有關的進一步承諾。

We're further developing and maturing our business processes, and it is good to see that our Taikang facility in China achieved ISO accreditation for energy management, environmental management, and occupational health and safety heading to its existing business management system. To date, 7S sites pursued several of these additional certifications.

我們正在進一步開發和完善我們的業務流程，很高興看到我們在中國的泰康工廠在能源管理、環境管理以及職業健康和安全方面獲得了 ISO 認證，並朝著其現有的業務管理系統邁進。迄今為止，7S 工廠已獲得其中多項附加認證。

Finally, turning to financial strength. We are continuing to make excellent progress on driving margin enhancement through pricing and simplification. Pricing activities are now firmly embedded in how we work and simplification continues to drive transformative change. We're making fantastic progress. Our commitment to deliver has resulted in strong momentum and a good pace of change. We're executing in line with our Investor Day commitments.

最後，轉向資金實力。我們將繼續透過定價和簡化來推動利潤率的提高，取得巨大進展。定價活動現已牢牢融入我們的工作方式中，而簡化繼續推動變革。我們正在取得巨大進展。我們對交付的承諾帶來了強勁的勢頭和良好的變革步伐。我們正在履行投資者日的承諾。

We completed the sale of our Burna Motors facility and of our Luxembourg Hydraulics manifold facility just after year-end as part of portfolio shaping. We exited a couple of small European manufacturing sites as part of our footprint consolidation. We deployed 80/20 to 5S additional sites now covering 70% of our business by sales and trained more than 80 more leaders, bringing the total to over 840.

作為投資組合塑造的一部分，我們在年底後完成了 Burna Motors 工廠和盧森堡液壓歧管工廠的出售。作為我們足跡整合的一部分，我們退出了幾個小型歐洲製造基地。我們部署了 80/20 至 5S 的額外站點，目前涵蓋了我們銷售額 70% 的業務，並培訓了 80 多名領導者，使總數超過 840 名。

We are maturing 80/20 at deployed sites, shifting from the initial profitability actions to detailed resourcing decisions as we strive for higher performance. We've established clear links between 80/20 and other continuous improvement activities such as lean and advanced product quality planning, all of which have a rolled to play in driving sustainable improvement.

我們正在部署地點實現 80/20 成熟，從最初的獲利行動轉向詳細的資源配置決策，同時努力爭取更高的績效。我們在 80/20 和其他持續改善活動（例如精益和先進的產品品質規劃）之間建立了明確的聯繫，所有這些都在推動永續改善方面發揮著滾動作用。

A look at multiyear trends helps illustrate the profound impact of simplification on our business. From fiscal year '22 to fiscal year '24, we have driven an almost 20% increase in sales while managing head count increases to be just 6% and reducing factory space by more than 10%. Our simplification work will continue to deliver on financial and operational improvements throughout fiscal '25.

了解多年趨勢有助於說明簡化對我們業務的深遠影響。從 22 財年到 24 財年，我們的銷售額成長了近 20%，同時將員工數量增幅控制在僅 6%，工廠空間減少了 10% 以上。我們的簡化工作將在整個 25 財年繼續實現財務和營運改善。

Now turning to macroeconomic and end market conditions. Given the industry-wide discussion on Boeing, let me start with commercial aerospace. The demand for air travel continues to strengthen, and the backlog of aircraft orders is significant. We recognize that there are significant challenges that need to be resolved in industry.

現在轉向宏觀經濟和終端市場狀況。鑑於全行業對波音的討論，讓我從商用航空航太開始。航空出行需求持續增強，飛機訂單積壓顯著。我們認識到行業中存在需要解決的重大挑戰。

Whilst Boeing is our largest customer, our book of business is weighted 80/20 to their wide-body aircraft. And therefore, our exposure to the current strike in Seattle and the FAA production rate cap is limited. We have moderated our production rate for 787 to align with Boeing's current plan. As a result, our build rate will be lower in fiscal '25 than we had first assumed in our Investor Day plan.

雖然波音是我們最大的客戶，但我們的業務與他們的寬體飛機的權重為 80/20。因此，我們對西雅圖目前罷工和美國聯邦航空局生產力上限的影響是有限的。我們已經調整了 787 的生產率，以符合波音目前的計畫。因此，我們 25 財年的建設率將低於我們在投資者日計劃中最初假設的水平。

Now turning to defense. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, atleast continue. Consequently, the US, many European nations and Australia have committed to increased spending on national security. We continue to support existing customers and platforms at an increased rate. We are actively pursuing new opportunities that exploit our unique capabilities as we work to strengthen national security. Fiscal '25 will be another year of strong growth within our defense businesses.

現在轉向防守。烏克蘭持續不斷的衝突至少仍在持續。因此，美國、許多歐洲國家和澳洲承諾增加國家安全支出。我們繼續以更高的速度支援現有客戶和平台。在我們努力加強國家安全的過程中，我們正在積極尋求新的機遇，利用我們的獨特能力。25 財年將是我們國防業務強勁成長的另一年。

Finally, industrial markets continue to be soft. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing has indicated a contraction in the Eurozone economies for most of the last 2S years. And our industrial automation orders have, as a consequence, been soft. We expect Industrial Automation sales to continue at roughly the current quarterly rate through fiscal '25.

最後，工業市場持續疲軟。製造業採購經理人指數顯示歐元區經濟在過去兩年的大部分時間都在收縮。因此，我們的工業自動化訂單一直疲軟。我們預計工業自動化銷售額將在 2025 財年繼續大致維持目前的季度成長率。

Turning to 2025. Our performance in '24 was outstanding, demonstrating our effectiveness at executing against our strategy on pricing and simplification. We will continue to drive these activities with the same vigor in fiscal '25. For that reason, I am confident in our guidance for '25, which includes continued solid revenue growth, strong adjusted operating margin improvement in line with our plan, and significant free cash flow improvement.

轉向 2025 年。我們在 24 年的表現非常出色，證明了我們在執行定價和簡化策略方面的有效性。我們將在 25 財年繼續以同樣的活力推動這些活動。因此，我對 25 年的指導充滿信心，其中包括持續穩健的收入成長、根據我們的計劃調整後營業利潤率的強勁改善以及自由現金流的顯著改善。

Our revenue growth will be driven primarily by broad-based defense needs and commercial aircraft demand tempered by Boeing's challenges and our Tewkesbury recovery. This is offset by a decrease in our industrial business due to market conditions and divestitures. Our margin enhancement will be in all segments except commercial where there is a mix shift towards original equipment production.

我們的收入成長將主要受到廣泛的國防需求和商用飛機需求的推動，而波音公司面臨的挑戰和圖克斯伯里的復甦則削弱了商用飛機的需求。這被我們的工業業務因市場狀況和資產剝離而減少所抵消。我們的利潤率提高將涉及除商業領域之外的所有領域，商業領域將向原始設備生產進行混合轉變。

In our cases, simplification initiatives, portfolio shaping, and pricing are contributing to margin expansion. Our free cash flow will improve significantly. Following a couple of years in which physical inventory growth placed a high demand on cash, we will reach a turning point in fiscal '25. We intend to fund capital expenditures at an elevated level through fiscal '25 in support of significant business capture now anticipated.

在我們的案例中，簡化措施、投資組合塑造和定價都有助於利潤率的擴張。我們的自由現金流將顯著改善。經過幾年的實體庫存成長對現金提出了很高的需求，我們將在 25 財年達到轉捩點。我們打算在 25 財年期間為更高水準的資本支出提供資金，以支持目前預期的重大業務收購。

Now let me hand over to Jennifer for a more detailed breakdown on the quarter and on our guidance.

現在讓我請珍妮佛詳細介紹本季和我們的指導。

Thanks, Pat. I'll begin with the summary for FY24, followed by a more detailed review of our fourth quarter financial performance. I'll then describe our initial guidance for FY25.

謝謝，帕特。我將從 2024 財年的摘要開始，然後更詳細地回顧我們第四季的財務表現。然後我將描述我們對 2025 財年的初步指導。

Sales for FY24 were at a record level coming in at $3.6 billion. This represents a 9% increase over FY23. Each of our segments contributed to our sales growth with our aerospace and defense segments, driving substantially more growth relative to industrial. Commercial aircraft sales increased 18% as a result of production ramps on wide-body, narrow-body, and business jet flap platforms.

2024 財年的銷售額達到創紀錄的 36 億美元。這比 2023 財年增加了 9%。我們的每個部門都為航空航太和國防部門的銷售成長做出了貢獻，推動了相對於工業部門的大幅成長。由於寬體機、窄體機和公務機襟翼平台的產量增加，商用飛機銷量成長了 18%。

Military aircraft sales increased 13% largely due to having a full year's worth of FLRAA sales as our activity in FY23 was interrupted by a delay in the contract awards. Sales in space and defense increased 7% due to strong broad-based defense demand. Industrial sales increased slightly at 1%, with softening in industrial automation being compensated for by growth in other submarkets.

軍用飛機銷量成長了 13%，主要是由於我們 2023 財年的活動因合約授予的延遲而中斷，導致全年的 FLRAA 銷量增加。由於廣泛的國防需求強勁，太空和國防領域的銷售額成長了 7%。工業銷售額小幅成長 1%，工業自動化的疲軟被其他次市場的成長所彌補。

Our adjusted operating margin of 12.4% increased 150 basis points over FY23. We benefited from an employee retention credit, which provided 40 basis points towards that increase. Operating margins expanded in each of our segments except for commercial aircraft. Military aircraft's operating margin increased 300 basis points to 12.0%. We benefited on cost absorption from having a full year of activity on FLRAA in FY24.

我們調整後的營業利益率為 12.4%，比 2023 財年增加了 150 個基點。我們受益於員工保留信用，這為這一增長提供了 40 個基點。除商用飛機外，我們每個部門的營業利潤率均有所擴大。軍用飛機的營業利潤率成長了 300 個基點，達到 12.0%。我們受惠於 2024 財年 FLRAA 全年活動的成本吸收。

In addition, we had lower level of R&D expense in FY24. Our operating margin in space and defense increased 290 basis points to 13.4% due to strong operational performance, including improved performance on our space vehicle program. In Industrial, our operating margin expanded 90 basis points, largely due to pricing initiatives.

此外，我們 2024 財年的研發費用水準較低。由於強勁的營運績效，包括我們太空船計畫績效的改善，我們在太空和國防領域的營運利潤率成長了 290 個基點，達到 13.4%。在工業領域，我們的營業利潤率擴大了 90 個基點，這主要歸功於定價措施。

In commercial aircraft, our operating margin decreased 90 basis points to 11.8% as FY23 included benefits from specific aftermarket activities. In FY23, we had a number of onetime aftermarket initiatives that contributed nicely to our operating margins as well as the sales of inventory upon exiting a mature platform.

在商用飛機方面，我們的營運利潤率下降 90 個基點至 11.8%，因為 2023 財年包括了特定售後市場活動的收益。在 2023 財年，我們實施了一系列一次性售後市場舉措，這些舉措對我們的營運利潤以及退出成熟平台後的庫存銷售做出了很好的貢獻。

Higher production volume in FY24 helped to offset these impacts. Adjusted earnings per share in FY24 was $7.80. This includes the benefit associated with the employee retention credit that we described in our second quarter. It also includes an adjustment we made in the fourth quarter to capitalize interest associated with major capital projects for FY23 and FY24.

2024 財年產量的增加有助於抵消這些影響。2024 財年調整後每股收益為 7.80 美元。這包括我們在第二季度描述的與員工保留積分相關的福利。它還包括我們在第四季度進行的調整，以將與 2023 財年和 2024 財年主要資本項目相關的利息資本化。

Excluding these 2S items, adjusted earnings per share was $7.24, up 18% over FY23. The growth in our earnings per share resulted from our operating margin expansion efforts and our sales growth. For the year, we generated a modest level of free cash flow. Net earnings grew substantially with physical inventories also growing, in part associated with our strong sales growth.

排除這些 2S 項目，調整後每股收益為 7.24 美元，比 2023 財年增長 18%。我們每股盈餘的成長得益於我們的營業利潤率擴張努力和銷售成長。今年，我們產生了適度的自由現金流。淨利潤大幅成長，實體庫存也在成長，部分原因是我們強勁的銷售成長。

Let's shift over to our fourth quarter results. We had a great quarter. Sales were very strong. Adjusted operating margin was robust and on plan and adjusted earnings per share, even after removing the benefit of capitalizing interest exceeded the high end of our guidance range. In addition, we generated a substantial amount of free cash flow.

讓我們轉向第四季的業績。我們度過了一個美好的季度。銷售非常強勁。即使在消除利息資本化的好處後，調整後的營業利潤率仍然強勁，符合計劃和調整後的每股收益，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。此外，我們也產生了大量的自由現金流。

We continue to make progress on simplifying our business in the fourth quarter and took some charges as a result. We recorded $15 million of losses associated with the industrial businesses that we recently divested. We also incurred $12 million of restructuring and related charges associated with other portfolio-shaping activities. In addition, we took $4 million of footprint rationalization charges.

第四季我們在簡化業務方面繼續取得進展，並因此收取了一些費用。我們記錄了與我們最近剝離的工業業務相關的 1500 萬美元的損失。我們還產生了 1200 萬美元的重組費用以及與其他投資組合塑造活動相關的費用。此外，我們還收取了 400 萬美元的佔地面積合理化費用。

I'll now talk through our fourth quarter results, excluding these charges. Sales in the fourth quarter of $917 million were 5% higher than last year's fourth quarter. Military aircraft and space and defense sales were up nicely, while commercial aircraft sales were up slightly, and industrial sales were down modestly. The largest increase in segment sales was in military aircraft. Sales of $216 million were up 17% over the fourth quarter of last year.

我現在將討論我們第四季的業績，不包括這些費用。第四季銷售額為 9.17 億美元，比去年第四季成長 5%。軍用飛機和航太及國防銷售大幅成長，商用飛機銷售小幅成長，工業銷售小幅下降。軍用飛機領域銷售額增幅最大。銷售額為 2.16 億美元，比去年第四季成長 17%。

Activity on the FLRAA program began to ramp in the third quarter last year and has steadily increased since that time, accounting for over half of the increase this quarter. In addition, over the past couple of years, certain other development work has shifted into production, and we're now beginning to see the ramp-up in production that will continue for the next few years.

FLRAA 計畫的活動從去年第三季開始增加，此後一直穩定成長，佔本季成長的一半以上。此外，在過去幾年中，某些其他開發工作已經投入生產，我們現在開始看到產量的增加將在未來幾年持續。

Space and defense sales of $263 million increased 9% over the fourth quarter last year. Defense demand continues to be strong, and we're seeing that come through most notably this quarter for European defense needs. In addition, launch vehicle activity continued to grow in our safe business.

太空和國防銷售額為 2.63 億美元，比去年第四季成長 9%。國防需求仍然強勁，我們看到本季歐洲國防需求的表現最為顯著。此外，我們的安全業務中的運載火箭活動持續成長。

Commercial aircraft sales of $197 million increased 2% over the same quarter a year ago. Volume increased nicely in the fourth quarter. This growth was muted by sales recorded in last year's fourth quarter for retroactive pricing and the sale of inventory associated with the mature product lines that we exited as part of our 80/20 work.

商用飛機銷售額為 1.97 億美元，比去年同期成長 2%。第四季銷量大幅成長。由於去年第四季度追溯定價的銷售記錄以及與我們作為 80/20 工作的一部分退出的成熟產品線相關的庫存銷售，這種增長受到抑制。

Industrial sales were $242 million in the fourth quarter. That's down 5% from the same quarter a year ago. Industrial automation sales were down from the very strong quarter a year ago, reflecting the slowdown in orders we've seen in recent quarters. Strength in our medical pumps business helped to offset this decline as we benefited from a competitor's challenges. Our automotive test business was also strong this quarter.

第四季工業銷售額為 2.42 億美元。這比去年同期下降了 5%。工業自動化銷售額較一年前非常強勁的季度有所下降，反映出我們最近幾季看到的訂單放緩。我們的醫療幫浦業務實力有助於抵消這一下滑，因為我們從競爭對手的挑戰中受益。本季我們的汽車測試業務也表現強勁。

We'll now shift to operating margins. Adjusted operating margin of 12.5% in the fourth quarter matched that of the fourth quarter a year ago. Stronger operational performance, including results from our pricing and simplification initiatives were offset by the benefit from retroactive pricing included in last year's fourth quarter.

我們現在轉向營業利潤率。第四季調整後營業利益率為 12.5%，與去年同期持平。更強勁的營運業績（包括我們的定價和簡化措施的結果）被去年第四季的追溯定價帶來的收益所抵銷。

Adjusted operating margin increased over the fouth quarter of last year in each of our segment except for commercial aircraft. The most impactful increase was in the military aircrafts with the 450 basis points increase to 12.0%. This reflects lower research and development expense, a more favorable mix with an aftermarket and efficiencies associated with higher volume on the FLRAA program.

除商用飛機外，我們每個部門的調整後營業利潤率均較去年第四季增加。增幅最大的是軍用飛機，增幅達 450 個基點，達到 12.0%。這反映了較低的研發費用、更有利的售後市場組合以及與 FLRAA 計劃銷售增加相關的效率。

Industrial operating margin was 12.8% in the fourth quarter, up 90 basis points. This increase was attributable to benefits from pricing initiatives. Offset by pressure associated with lower industrial automation sales and plan product transfers.

第四季工業營業利益率為12.8%，上升90個基點。這一增長歸因於定價舉措的好處。與工業自動化銷售下降和計劃產品轉移相關的壓力所抵消。

In space and defense, operating margin increased 70 basis points to 13.5%. This increase is associated with improved performance on base vehicle programs, pricing, and profitable growth. Commercial aircraft operating margin was 11.4% down 640 basis points from the fourth quarter last year as the fourth quarter last year included benefits from retroactive pricing and the sale of inventory associated with an exit of a mature platform.

在太空和國防領域，營業利益率成長了 70 個基點，達到 13.5%。這一增長與基礎車輛計劃、定價和盈利增長的績效改善有關。商用飛機營運利潤率為 11.4%，較去年第四季下降 640 個基點，原因是去年第四季包括追溯定價以及與成熟平台退出相關的庫存銷售帶來的收益。

I'll now shift to non-operating expenses. Interest expense was down compared to the same period a year ago related to the capitalized interest adjustment I described earlier. Our adjusted effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was 19.2% up from 18.5% in the fourth quarter last year, with the increase attributable to lower level R&D tax credits this year.

我現在轉向非營業費用。由於我之前描述的資本化利息調整，利息支出與去年同期相比有所下降。我們第四季調整後的有效稅率為 19.2%，高於去年第四季的 18.5%，成長歸因於今年研發稅收抵免水準較低。

Putting it all together, adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.16, up compared to last year's fourth quarter. The increase is attributable to additional operating profit associated with higher sales. While we benefited this quarter from the capitalization of interest, this was offset by the benefits of legal settlement and lower nonoperating expenses in last year's fourth quarter.

總而言之，調整後每股收益為 2.16 美元，高於去年第四季。這一增長歸因於銷售額增加帶來的額外營業利潤。雖然我們本季從利息資本化中受益，但這被法律和解的好處和去年第四季較低的非營運費用所抵消。

Let's shift over to cash flow, which was particularly strong this quarter. In the fourth quarter, we generated $109 million of free cash flow. This represents free cash flow conversion on adjusted earnings of over 150%. The key driver to the strong cash generation this quarter was working capital, in particular, collections from customers and timing of underpayments.

讓我們轉向現金流，本季的現金流尤其強勁。第四季度，我們產生了 1.09 億美元的自由現金流。這意味著調整後收益的自由現金流轉換率超過 150%。本季現金產生強勁的關鍵驅動因素是營運資金，特別是客戶收款和少付款的時機。

Capital expenditures, after excluding the capitalized interest adjustment, were in line with spend levels in recent quarters. We're broadening our target leverage range to be a full turn of EBITDA, still centered around a 2.5 times midpoint. Our leverage ratio was 2.0 times as of the end of the fourth quarter, putting us at the low end of our target leverage of 2 to 3 times.

排除資本化利息調整後的資本支出與最近幾季的支出水準一致。我們正在將目標槓桿範圍擴大到 EBITDA 的整倍數，但仍以 2.5 倍中點為中心。截至第四季末，我們的槓桿率為2.0倍，處於2至3倍目標槓桿的低端。

Our capital deployment priority in the near term continues to be investing for organic growth. With the anticipation of several significant programs that will provide long-term revenue growth starting in just a few years, our investments in our facilities will continue at elevated levels to ensure we're well prepared for these exciting opportunities. Longer term, our capital deployment priorities will be more balanced.

我們近期的資本部署重點仍是投資於有機成長。預計幾個重大計劃將在短短幾年內提供長期收入成長，我們對設施的投資將繼續保持在較高水平，以確保我們為這些令人興奮的機會做好充分準備。長期來看，我們的資本配置重點將會更加平衡。

We'll now shift over to our initial guidance for next year. Fiscal year 2025 will be another positive step on our journey towards our long-term financial targets. We'll grow our sales, expand our operating margin in line with our [industry] targets, and improve our cash flow generation.

我們現在將轉向明年的初步指導。2025 財年將是我們實現長期財務目標的另一個積極步驟。我們將增加銷售額，根據我們的[行業]目標擴大營業利潤，並改善我們的現金流量產生。

We're projecting sales of $3.7 billion in FY25, a 3% increase compared to FY24. We're projecting sales growth in space and defense, commercial aircraft and military aircraft, and expecting a decrease in sales and industrial. The largest increase in sales will be in space and defense. We're projecting sales to increase 7% to $1.1 billion. We're seeing strong defense demand across our entire book of business, in particular, in space and European ground vehicle markets.

我們預計 25 財年的銷售額將達到 37 億美元，比 24 財年成長 3%。我們預計太空和國防、商用飛機和軍用飛機的銷售將會成長，並預期銷售和工業飛機的銷售將會下降。銷售額增幅最大的是太空和國防領域。我們預計銷售額將成長 7%，達到 11 億美元。我們看到整個業務領域都有強勁的國防需求，特別是在太空和歐洲地面車輛市場。

Commercial aircraft sales are projected to grow 6% to $835 million. The demand for commercial aircraft remains high, flight traffic is growing at key roofs. Production continues to ramp on nearly all of our platforms, driving the sales growth. This was tempered, however, by the pressures on our Boeing platforms and production levels at our Tewkesbury facility, as Pat described.

商用飛機銷售額預計將成長 6%，達到 8.35 億美元。對商用飛機的需求仍然很高，主要屋頂的航班流量不斷增加。我們幾乎所有平台的產量持續增加，推動了銷售成長。然而，正如帕特所描述的，我們的波音平台和圖克斯伯里工廠的生產水平所面臨的壓力緩解了這種情況。

Military aircraft sales are projected to increase 4% to $840 million. We're expecting further growth on the FLRAA program as we accelerate the pace in FY25. In addition, aftermarket sales will increase as the military looks to ensure mission readiness across the fleet.

軍用飛機銷售額預計將成長 4%，達到 8.4 億美元。隨著我們在 2025 財年加快步伐，我們預計 FLRAA 計劃將進一步成長。此外，隨著軍方希望確保整個艦隊的任務準備就緒，售後市場銷售將會增加。

Industrial sales will decrease in FY25. We're projecting sales of $940 million, down 5% from last year, but only 2% when we adjust for the two businesses we sold at the start of FY25. While still very strong, sales for both test and simulation will moderate off the record levels.

2025 財年工業銷售額將下降。我們預計銷售額為 9.4 億美元，比去年下降 5%，但對 2025 財年年初出售的兩項業務進行調整後，銷售額僅為 2%。雖然仍然非常強勁，但測試和模擬的銷售額將低於創紀錄的水平。

Let's shift over to operating margins. We're projecting our adjusted operating margin in FY25 to be [13.0%], a 60 basis point increase over FY24 or 100 basis points after factoring out FY24's employee retention credit benefit. Operating margins will expand in each of our segments with the exception of commercial aircraft.

讓我們轉向營業利潤率。我們預期 2025 財年調整後的營業利益率為 [13.0%]，比 2024 財年增加 60 個基點，在剔除 2024 財年的員工保留信貸福利後增加 100 個基點。除商用飛機外，我們每個部門的營業利潤率都將擴大。

Military aircraft operating margin will increase 110 basis points to 13.1%. We're transitioning from development to production on several programs, and this reduces our risk and increases our operating margin. In addition, both volume and pricing are positively impacting our operating margin in military aircraft.

軍用飛機運作利潤率將增加110個基點至13.1%。我們正在將多個專案從開發過渡到生產，這降低了我們的風險並增加了我們的營運利潤。此外，數量和價格都對我們軍用飛機的營運利潤產生正面影響。

Industrial's operating margin will increase 100 basis points to 13.4%. Simplification will drive our margin expansion within industrial, portfolio shaping, including the divestitures completed at the beginning of FY25 and product phaseouts resulting from 80/20 activities will contribute to our margin expansion.

工業部門的營業利益率將增加 100 個基點，達到 13.4%。簡化將推動我們在工業、投資組合塑造方面的利潤擴張，包括 25 財年年初完成的資產剝離以及 80/20 活動導致的產品逐步淘汰將有助於我們的利潤擴張。

We also made progress with footprint rationalization, and this is creating efficiencies within our business. Our simplification actions are tempering top line growth in favor of operating margin expansion. In addition to our simplification progress, pricing will continue to contribute to our operating margin expansion in industrial.

我們也在佔地面積合理化方面取得了進展，這提高了我們的業務效率。我們的簡化行動正在緩和營收成長，有利於營業利益率的擴張。除了我們的簡化進展之外，定價將繼續有助於我們工業營運利潤率的擴大。

Our operating margin in space and defense will increased 80 basis points to 14.2%. It will benefit from profitable growth and pricing, though we'll feel pressure from the lack of the employee retention credit that we benefited from in FY24. In commercial aircraft, our operating margin will decrease 80 basis points to 11.0%. Our product mix will be less favorable in FY25 as OE production outpaces aftermarket growth, will also be negatively impacted from our Tewkesbury operations as we work to get back up to capacity after the storm damage.

我們在太空和國防領域的營運利潤率將增加 80 個基點，達到 14.2%。它將受益於獲利成長和定價，儘管我們會因缺乏我們在 2024 財年受益的員工保留信用而感到壓力。在商用飛機方面，我們的營運利潤率將下降 80 個基點至 11.0%。由於原廠設備產量超過售後市場成長，我們的產品組合在 25 財年將不太有利，而且我們的圖克斯伯里業務也將受到負面影響，因為我們正在努力在風暴破壞後恢復產能。

For FY25, we're projecting adjusted earnings per share of $8.20 plus or minus $0.20. That's up 5% over FY24 or 11% adjusting for the employee retention credit and normalizing the level of capitalized interest. The projected earnings per share increase reflects strong operational performance. For the first quarter, we're forecasting earnings per share to be $1.60 plus or minus $0.10.

對於 25 財年，我們預計調整後每股收益為 8.20 美元上下 0.20 美元。這比 2024 財年增加了 5%，或根據員工保留信貸和資本化利息水準正常化調整後成長了 11%。預計每股收益的成長反映了強勁的營運表現。我們預計第一季每股收益為 1.60 美元上下 0.10 美元。

Finally, turning to cash. We're projecting free cash flow conversion to be in the 50% to 75% range, a solid improvement from the modest level of cash we generated this past year. This is somewhat below the 75% level that we had previously targeted. A good portion of that change relates to an increased level of capital expenditures in FY25.

最後，轉向現金。我們預計自由現金流轉換率將在 50% 至 75% 的範圍內，這比我們去年產生的適度現金流水準有了顯著改善。這略低於我們先前設定的 75% 的目標水準。這項變化很大一部分與 2025 財年資本支出水準的增加有關。

While we had previously expected capital expenditures to begin to decline in FY25, we are now increasing investments in anticipation of longer-term business opportunities. In addition, we're factoring in potential pressure on cash related to volatility at commercial OEMs due to uncertainty and fragility of their supply chain.

雖然我們之前預計資本支出將在 2025 財年開始下降，但我們現在正在增加投資，以期獲得更長期的商業機會。此外，我們也考慮到商業原始設備製造商因其供應鏈的不確定性和脆弱性而造成的波動性所帶來的潛在現金壓力。

We'll drive an improvement in free cash flow generation from FY24 to FY25 by relentlessly focusing on optimizing our planning and sourcing activities. This involves further development of our supply chain, including dual sourcing and vertical integration as well as having clear accountabilities and increasing visibility to aid in timely and informed decisions.

我們將不懈地專注於優化我們的規劃和採購活動，從而推動 2024 財年至 25 財年自由現金流產生的改善。這涉及我們供應鏈的進一步發展，包括雙重採購和垂直整合，以及明確的責任和提高可見性，以幫助做出及時和明智的決策。

We'll see the benefit of these actions come through in the form of reduced inventory levels. We'll be pressured with regard to receivables, though, particularly early in FY25, as we come off a very strong collections quarter in the fourth quarter of FY24. Overall, we're really encouraged by our financial performance in FY24, and we're looking forward to another great year in FY25.

我們將看到這些行動的好處以降低庫存水準的形式體現出來。不過，我們將在應收帳款方面面臨壓力，特別是在 25 財年初期，因為我們在 2024 財年第四季的收款季度非常強勁。總體而言，我們對 2024 財年的財務表現感到非常鼓舞，我們期待 2025 財年又一個偉大的一年。

And now I'll turn it over to Pat.

現在我會把它交給派特。

Thank you, Jennifer. Our fourth quarter was strong, bringing to close an exceptional year with record sales and expanded margin. Our performance reflects the success in pricing and simplification initiatives that continue to build momentum into '25 with stronger sales, expanded margin, and improved cash flow generation.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。我們的第四季表現強勁，以創紀錄的銷售額和擴大的利潤率結束了非凡的一年。我們的業績反映了定價和簡化舉措的成功，這些舉措繼續為 25 世紀的銷售強勁、利潤擴大和現金流生成改善奠定了動力。

Now let's open it up to your questions.

現在讓我們來解答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Cai von Rumohr, TD Cowen.

蔡·馮·魯莫爾，TD·考恩。

Terrific. Thank you very much and great results again. So Pat, you mentioned you do this quite a bit, generational defense wins. And you mentioned two of them. Could you give us any more specifics and specifically with regard to Europe?

了不起。非常感謝，再次取得了很好的成績。帕特，你提到你經常這樣做，代際防守獲勝。你提到了其中兩個。您能否給我們更多具體信息，特別是有關歐洲的信息？

Yeah, we had a great quarter. Thanks for the comment. There's a lot of activity going on. And I'm able to state that we're involved in a lot of capture and development activities across the whole broad range of defense applications in all of the war-fighting domains.

是的，我們度過了一個美好的季度。感謝您的評論。有很多活動正在進行。我可以說，我們參與了所有作戰領域的廣泛國防應用的大量捕獲和開發活動。

The activities we're talking about in Europe are predominantly aligned around armored vehicle, which has been a strength of ours in Europe, and we're seeing many of the existing platforms pulling through more sales. So we've got significant uplift in sales in Europe. In fact, we've secured a second building at our [bubblinger] campus to help accommodate some of that growth of defense business in Europe.

我們在歐洲談論的活動主要圍繞著裝甲車，這一直是我們在歐洲的優勢，而且我們看到許多現有平台的銷售增加。因此，我們在歐洲的銷售額顯著提升。事實上，我們已經在我們的 [bubblinger] 園區獲得了第二座建築，以幫助適應歐洲國防業務的部分成長。

In terms of new programs in Europe, we're obviously interested in ground-based air defense, and we continue to pursue that. And in the US, there are a number of programs that we're actively pursuing as well, I would say, have developed strong commitment, our relationships with the main competitors in those -- for those programs of work and are working with them.

就歐洲的新計劃而言，我們顯然對陸基防空感興趣，並且我們將繼續追求這一目標。在美國，我們也正在積極推行許多項目，我想說，我們與這些項目的主要競爭對手建立了堅定的承諾，並與他們合作。

But I don't have announcements to make in this quarter as to any of those particular programs. And also some of the other activity that's going on will be under our classified activities, Cai, and I can't share the details of them.

但我在本季度沒有關於任何特定計劃的公告。蔡，正在進行的其他一些活動將屬於我們的機密活動，我無法分享它們的詳細資訊。

But I think the key thing is there is really strong demand out there. The capabilities we have are matching is the problems that have been trying to be solved, and we feel that we're in a really strong position to announce wins in the future, but we just have to wait until they're secured before we can share more detail on them.

但我認為關鍵是需求確實很強勁。我們所擁有的能力與我們一直在努力解決的問題相匹配，我們認為我們在未來宣布勝利方面處於非常有利的地位，但我們只需要等到它們得到保障之後我們才能做到分享更多關於它們的細節。

Terrific. And if we can switch to commercial aircraft, any specifics on the Boeing strike impact? Because I assume that would hit most heavily in the first quarter? And what are you assuming regarding Airbus because they gave this kind of crazy forecast of hitting 770 deliveries, even though they haven't done 500 in the 9 months now and they did 50 in October. So their numbers look excessively aggressive.

了不起。如果我們可以改用商用飛機，波音罷工影響有什麼具體細節嗎？因為我認為第一季受到的打擊最嚴重？你對空中巴士有何假設，因為他們瘋狂地預測交付量將達到 770 架，儘管他們在 9 個月內沒有交付 500 架，而 10 月交付了 50 架。所以他們的數字看起來太過激進。

So on Boeing, Cai, we don't expect any direct impact from the strike. I tried to indicate in the script that we have a weighting towards the widebody business but it's such that the impact on 737 MAX on our all sales levels is relatively muted. And so there's no real impact from the strike on us at this point in time.

因此，對於波音、蔡來說，我們預計罷工不會產生任何直接影響。我試圖在腳本中表明，我們對寬體機業務有一定的重視，但這樣一來，737 MAX 對我們所有銷售水平的影響相對較小。因此，目前罷工對我們沒有真正的影響。

We're building at a rate that we feel is really now aligned with their current plans. So I think what we have done for our projection for '25 is a really well-balanced and judged assessment of what we think we can do in the commercial business in the coming year. I mean there's obviously uncertainty in the industry in general on the issues you mentioned with supply chain affecting both Boeing and Airbus.

我們的建設速度我們認為現在確實符合他們目前的計劃。因此，我認為我們對 25 年的預測所做的工作是對我們認為來年在商業業務中可以做的事情進行了非常平衡和有判斷力的評估。我的意思是，對於您提到的影響波音和空中巴士的供應鏈問題，整個產業顯然存在不確定性。

And as a consequence of that, when we were thinking through our modeling for next year. It was one reason for having the wider range on the cash flow from [$50 million to $75 million] to take into account the challenge that's out there in the industry. But we'll continue to (multiple speakers) --

因此，當我們考慮明年的模型時。這是考慮到行業中存在的挑戰而將現金流範圍擴大到[5000萬美元至7500萬美元]的原因之一。但我們會繼續（多位發言者）——

Great. And the last one, could you give us any sort of specifics in terms of what we should look for this year in terms of how much growth in commercial and military aftermarket?

偉大的。最後一個問題，您能否給我們一些具體訊息，說明今年我們應該期待商業和軍事售後市場的成長多少？

Actually, when you look at our commercial business into '25, what you'll see is that the growth in OE production -- despite all the challenges that we've just described, the growth in OE production is outpacing the growth in aftermarket in our commercial business. And so the mix moves -- the mix changes slightly as we go into '24 to '25 more in favor of OE.

事實上，當你觀察我們進入 25 世紀的商業業務時，你會看到 OE 生產的成長——儘管我們剛剛描述了所有挑戰，OE 生產的成長速度超過了售後市場的成長速度。 。因此，當我們進入「24 世紀」到「25 年」時，組合會發生輕微變化，更傾向於 OE。

And the second factor affecting us on the commercial side is we do quite an amount of our aftermarket activity through our Tewkesbury site in the UK, and that was the site that's been affected by flooding. That has reduced our available capacity in that plant for a part of this year. And as a consequence, that pulls back our aftermarket content during this year as well.

在商業方面影響我們的第二個因素是，我們透過英國圖克斯伯里工廠進行了大量的售後活動，而該工廠受到了洪水的影響。這減少了我們今年部分時間該工廠的可用產能。因此，今年我們的售後內容也隨之減少。

Go ahead.

前進。

On the military side, there's not much of a change in the mix as we go into next year, Cai.

在軍事方面，蔡，明年的情況不會有太大變化。

Terrific. Thank you very much. I'll let someone else go.

了不起。非常感謝。我會讓別人走。

You're welcome. Thank you Cai.

不客氣。謝謝蔡。

Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·恰莫利 (Michael Ciarmoli)，Truist 證券公司。

Hey, good morning guys and a real nice results. Thanks for taking the questions. Pat, maybe we could just stay on Cai's line of questioning there on commercial. Just on the 787, can you give us a sense then, I think you had been shipping at rates above where Boeing had been. Is there going to be -- is this sort of a one-year sort of destock situation? Or how do you kind of see that program moving throughout the year?

嘿，早上好，夥計們，我們取得了非常好的結果。感謝您提出問題。派特，也許我們可以繼續蔡在廣告中的提問。就 787 而言，您能給我們一個感覺嗎？是否會出現這種為期一年的去庫存？或者您如何看待該計劃全年的進展？

And I guess, back to Airbus, right, their commentary on the A350 certainly targeting that longer-term rate of [12%], but it sounded like '25 was going to be a little bit squishy in terms of getting the rates increasing. So maybe just a little bit more detail on those two wide-bodies.

我想，回到空中巴士公司，對吧，他們對 A350 的評論肯定是針對 [12%] 的長期利率，但聽起來 25 年在提高利率方面會有點軟弱。所以也許只是關於這兩台寬體機的更多細節。

Yeah. Hello Michael. Good morning. Thanks for the questions. On the commercial side, I mean we've been in a lot of detailed discussion with both of our customers. We feel -- and we have adjusted the plan accordingly. And so we mentioned in the notes that we had moderated somewhat expectations we have on rates from what we had 18 months ago.

是的。你好麥可。早安.感謝您的提問。在商業方面，我的意思是我們已經與我們的兩個客戶進行了許多詳細的討論。我們感覺到——並且我們已經相應地調整了計劃。因此，我們在註釋中提到，與 18 個月前相比，我們對利率的預期有所緩和。

I mean when we went out at the Investor Day, we had a plan in mind. It was built off of Boeing's rate increases at that time. Obviously, things have changed over the course of the last 12 months or so on. We've built all of that now into the model going forward. So yes, it is down somewhat on what we thought at Investor Day, but it's still showing for us as a business, growth in our wide-body, narrow-body and business jet business in fiscal '25.

我的意思是，當我們參加投資者日時，我們心裡有一個計劃。它是根據波音公司當時的升息而建立的。顯然，在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡，情況發生了變化。我們現在已經將所有這些構建到了未來的模型中。所以，是的，它比我們在投資者日的想法有所下降，但它仍然向我們展示了我們作為一個企業，我們的寬體、窄體和公務機業務在 25 財年的增長。

And your comments about Airbus as well. I mean we've built in that into the model for next year as well. So I think we're really in line with both of the OEMs at this point in the plans.

還有您對空中巴士的評論。我的意思是我們也將其納入明年的模型中。所以我認為我們目前的計劃確實與兩家原始設備製造商的計劃一致。

Okay. And then just on the aftermarket, do you actually -- I know we'll probably get in the queue. What was the commercial aftermarket growth rate in this quarter? And then I guess, if absent took Tewkesbury, would you have aftermarket growth in '25? I mean it's just -- it's such a strong market. I mean, I'm just trying to figure out if there's anything with your business that's a little bit more nuanced. I mean, obviously, you're more wide-body exposed. But any other color you can provide there?

好的。然後就在售後市場，你真的嗎——我知道我們可能會排隊。本季商業售後市場成長率是多少？然後我想，如果缺席圖克斯伯里，你在 25 年會有售後市場成長嗎？我的意思是，這是一個非常強大的市場。我的意思是，我只是想弄清楚您的業務是否有什麼更微妙的地方。我的意思是，顯然，你的寬體暴露得更多。但你們還可以提供其他顏色嗎？

So the Tewkesbury business does have a substantive piece of aftermarket activity flowing through. And so that is tempering our into next year. I think our mix in '25 is something like 70-30 between OE and aftermarket on the commercial side. This year, that might have been two-third, one-third. So the mix shifts over as a consequence of the growth on the OE side. I would say, shifts over predominantly because of the growth on the OE side and to some degree due to the Tewkesbury capacity challenge.

因此，圖克斯伯里業務確實有大量的售後市場活動。這就是我們明年的準備。我認為 25 年我們在商業方面的原廠設備和售後市場之間的比例約為 70-30。今年，這個數字可能是三分之二、三分之一。因此，由於原始設備方面的成長，這種組合發生了變化。我想說，這種轉變主要是因為原始設備方面的成長，在某種程度上是由於圖克斯伯里產能挑戰。

Okay. Perfect. And last one for me and then I'll get out of the way. Just on these defense opportunities, thinking more maybe working with some of the suppliers? Are you guys having traction working with some of these newer upstart commercial-based defense companies, whether it's Anderol or BlueHalos of the world? .

好的。完美的。最後一件事對我來說然後我就讓開。就這些防禦機會而言，更多地思考是否可以與一些供應商合作？你們是否願意與一些新興的商業國防公司合作，無論是世界上的 Anderol 還是 BlueHalos？。

I think I prefer not to comment on which customers we're working with. I would say we do have an interest in the CCA market in general. And I think we have offerings that can make a contribution to any of the players in that space.

我想我不想評論我們正在與哪些客戶合作。我想說我們確實對 CCA 市場感興趣。我認為我們的產品可以為該領域的任何參與者做出貢獻。

Okay, fair enough. Thanks guys.

好吧，很公平。謝謝你們。

Thanks Michael.

謝謝邁克爾。

Jon Tanwanteng, CJS Securities.

Jon Tanwanteng，CJS 證券。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions and a nice quarter. I was wondering if you could detail your CapEx plans for this year. Maybe you told -- having a little bit of connection trouble. But where does it stand versus what maybe you thought you would spend compared to your Investor Day last year?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題，並祝您度過了愉快的季度。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明今年的資本支出計劃。也許你告訴過——有一點連接問題。但與去年投資者日相比，您預計會花多少錢呢？

Yeah. So capital expenditures were looking to be at $180 million next year. That's 4.9% of our level of sales. So that's in our high end of our range. Historically, we've been at 3% to 4%. But in the last couple of years, we've been in that 4% -- just over 4% range as we are making some of the changes to support the growth that we are having during the Investor Day period.

是的。因此明年的資本支出預計為 1.8 億美元。這是我們銷售額的 4.9%。所以這屬於我們範圍的高端。從歷史上看，我們一直在3%到4%。但在過去的幾年裡，我們一直處於 4%——略高於 4% 的範圍，因為我們正在做出一些改變來支持投資者日期間的成長。

Pat has just been talking about these ones in the generational types of opportunities in the defense businesses and we're seeing progress in capturing and going to continue capturing those types of opportunities. And with that includes the need for further capitalization. That capitalization comes in the form of facilities, enhancements to our facilities and equipment for those facilities. So we're deciding to spend that now in FY25, so that we're nicely prepared for these opportunities, which would be in the next couple of years or so before we would need them. So it's really the ramping up of that.

帕特剛剛談到了國防業務中的代際機會，我們看到在抓住並將繼續抓住這些類型的機會方面取得了進展。這也包括進一步資本化的需要。這種資本化以設施、設施的增強以及這些設施的設備的形式出現。因此，我們決定在 2025 財年投入這筆資金，以便我們為這些機會做好充分準備，這些機會將在未來幾年左右我們需要它們之前。所以這確實是一個不斷升級的過程。

So we're certainly taking our capital expenditures up to a higher level than we had planned. We had anticipated that in FY25, we were going to be on the start of our journey to reduce our capital expenditures down to our historical norms of 3% to 4%, maybe not quite getting there all the way this year. But that's really the difference.

因此，我們肯定會將資本支出提高到比計劃更高的水平。我們預計，在 2025 財年，我們將開始將資本支出削減至 3% 至 4% 的歷史標準，但今年可能無法完全實現這一目標。但這確實是差別。

That's the primary driving factor between our 75% free cash flow conversion from Investor Day to the range that we've got of 50% to 75%. So it's really another way to deploy our capital. It just happens to be in our free cash flow calculation, and it brings that down. It's the same thing. It's investing for organic growth, and we're seeing incredible opportunities just outside our yesterday period, and so we're capitalizing so that we'll be well positioned to make those realities.

這是我們從投資者日起 75% 的自由現金流轉換到我們現有的 50% 到 75% 範圍的主要驅動因素。所以這實際上是部署我們資本的另一種方式。它恰好出現在我們的自由現金流計算中，並且它降低了這一點。這是同樣的事情。這是對有機成長的投資，我們在昨天的時期之外看到了令人難以置信的機會，因此我們正在利用資本，以便我們能夠很好地實現這些現實。

Got it. That's very helpful. And maybe just to dig a little deeper, what is the time, I guess, you expect before you start generating full run rate income on these facilities you have a variety of projects or end markets that can have different types of durations on the length of project and the platform. So just wondering how you would characterize these additional investments and when they might come back to you in terms of profitability?

知道了。這非常有幫助。也許只是為了更深入地挖掘，我想，在您開始在這些設施上產生全額運行率收入之前，您期望什麼時間，您有各種項目或終端市場，它們可以在長度上有不同類型的持續時間項目和平台。所以只是想知道您如何描述這些額外投資以及它們何時會在盈利方面為您帶來回報？

So I would say these right now are going to be coming out in the form of cash. They're not going to be depreciated yet because we won't have them placed in service for the -- some of them maybe have elements placed in service in FY25, but some of them will continue into FY26. So the investment right now is in cash. I would say that we could be in -- a variety of these types of platforms. But I would say they're outside of our Investor Day period. So beginning in FY27 and after for which we would start having some production revenue.

所以我想說這些現在將以現金的形式出現。它們還不會折舊，因為我們不會讓它們投入使用——其中一些可能會在 2025 財年投入使用，但其中一些將繼續到 2026 財年。所以現在的投資是現金。我想說，我們可能處於各種此類平台。但我想說的是，它們不在我們的投資者日期間。因此，從 2027 財年開始，我們將開始獲得一些生產收入。

Okay. Got it. And then outside of growth CapEx, just can you give us an update on spending for the transformation and kind of what's on deck this year? What are some of the bigger pieces you have to execute on in '25?

好的。知道了。然後，除了成長資本支出之外，您能否向我們介紹一下轉型支出的最新情況以及今年的計畫？25 年您必須執行哪些更大的任務？

So we'll continue to drive the 80/20 deployments, Jon into the business. So I mentioned that we've deployed 70% of the business to date. We just keep driving that through the coming year. We have some work to do on completing our footprint rationalization activities that are already started, but we have an idea of several more to complete out during the course of the year as well.

因此，我們將繼續推動 80/20 部署，Jon 進入業務。所以我提到我們迄今為止已經部署了 70% 的業務。我們將在來年繼續推動這一目標。我們在完成已經開始的足跡合理化活動方面還有一些工作要做，但我們也計劃在今年內完成更多工作。

So there's more work to do during the year, the themes are the same as the themes we've been talking about over the prior years, all of it to drive simplification within the organization and therefore, take away that complexity and costs associated with it.

因此，今年還有更多工作要做，主題與我們前幾年討論的主題相同，所有這些都是為了推動組織內部的簡化，從而消除與之相關的複雜性和成本。

Okay. Great. And last one for me. I'm just wondering what your forecast would have looked like, I guess, under the old rate of 787 production, maybe if Tewkesbury hadn't been damaged by the storms.

好的。偉大的。最後一張給我。我只是想知道，如果圖克斯伯里沒有受到風暴的破壞，按照 787 的舊產量，您的預測會是什麼樣子。

It certainly would have been higher. We've reflected what we've got in our current types of -- there's different trade-offs associated this. We want to make sure that we're balancing the different things, the different elements here. We want to make sure that we've got the stable supply chain and everything along those lines as well as making sure that we're not building up inventory.

它肯定會更高。我們已經反映了我們當前類型中所擁有的東西——與此相關的不同權衡。我們希望確保平衡不同的事物、不同的元素。我們希望確保我們擁有穩定的供應鏈和相關的一切，並確保我們不會增加庫存。

So our plans are really to put our plans in place that makes sense for keeping that healthy supply chain so that we are ready to ramp when our customers are ready to ramp and not building excess inventory in the meantime. So we don't have a pre model as far as where that is that we'll share, but it's really -- it's reflective of a lower level of sales activity than we previously had projected.

因此，我們的計劃實際上是將我們的計劃落實到位，這對於保持健康的供應鏈有意義，以便我們在客戶準備好增加產量時做好準備，而不是同時建立過多的庫存。因此，我們沒有一個我們將分享的預模型，但它確實反映了銷售活動水平比我們之前預期的要低。

And Jon, just on the Tewkesbury capacity constraint, we're not anticipating that result in us losing the business. I think it pushes some business out into the start of '26 and the amount that gets pushed out is a little bit dependent on the pace at which we can regain full capacity at the Tewkesbury site. So there's a coding pieces there, but it's not lost business.

喬恩，就圖克斯伯里產能限製而言，我們預計這不會導致我們失去業務。我認為這將一些業務推遲到 26 年初，而推遲的數量在一定程度上取決於我們恢復圖克斯伯里工廠全部產能的速度。所以那裡有一個編碼片段，但它並沒有失去業務。

Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thank you.

好的，太好了。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利

Hey. This is Justin on for Kristine this morning. I wanted to ask on -- you mentioned strength in European defense sales. Maybe you could just touch on the trends you're seeing in terms of overall international mix and defense? And how fast do you see that growing? And maybe how that might impact margins going forward? .

嘿。這是賈斯汀今天早上為克里斯汀做的。我想問一下——您提到了歐洲國防銷售的強勁勢頭。也許您可以談談您在整體國際組合和防守方面看到的趨勢？您認為這種成長速度有多快？也許這會如何影響未來的利潤率？。

So I think the feeling of insecurity in Europe is pretty high with what's going on in the Ukraine, Russian war, and it has certainly changed perspectives there, and that has resulted in increased defense commitments as a percent of GDP in many of the countries across Europe. You're seeing that having an impact on the industry and the industry in some cases, doesn't have the capacity to keep up with that increased spend commitment that's in Europe. And we're seeing it as a pull-through in modernization of platforms, and fleet readiness activity.

因此，我認為，烏克蘭和俄羅斯戰爭所發生的事情讓歐洲的不安全感相當高，這肯定改變了歐洲的觀點，這導致許多國家的國防承諾佔國內生產總值的百分比增加。您會看到，在某些情況下，對產業和產業產生影響的公司沒有能力跟上歐洲增加的支出承諾。我們將其視為平台現代化和艦隊準備活動的一個推動。

So we've got a lot more work going through our German operation as a consequence of the readiness requirement, I guess, in Europe at the moment. I think there is further work and opportunity for newer platforms in the future. That's not what we're seeing at the moment. What we're seeing at the moment is a pull-through on existing platforms, but it is a significant lift up in the size of that European business.

因此，我想，由於目前歐洲的準備要求，我們在德國的業務還有很多工作要做。我認為未來新平台還有進一步的工作和機會。這不是我們目前看到的情況。我們目前看到的是現有平台的拉動，但歐洲業務規模的顯著提升。

European business as a percent of our overall is not huge as a percent of our overall defense business. It's not insignificant, but it's not huge, but it has doubled over the course of the last two years. And that's why Jennifer mentioned, we've invested in increasing our facility footprint in Germany. We've added another building to be able to accommodate the work that's going on there.

歐洲業務占我們整體國防業務的百分比並不大。這不是微不足道的，但也不是很大，但在過去兩年裡翻了一番。這就是為什麼詹妮弗提到，我們已經投資擴大了我們在德國的設施足跡。我們添加了另一棟建築，以便能夠容納那裡正在進行的工作。

So we see it as really positive. It is at the moment on the ground vehicle activity, but there are more opportunities out there that we're pursuing as well in a wider range of domains.

所以我們認為這非常積極。目前是地面車輛活動，但我們也在更廣泛的領域尋求更多機會。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just sneak one more on the Tewkesbury situation. I appreciate it -- might be tough to get precise, but maybe just how you're thinking about when you might be able to get that facility back up performing to pre-flood levels?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許再偷偷講一講圖克斯伯里的情況。我很感激——可能很難精確，但也許你正在考慮什麼時候才能讓該設施恢復到洪水前的水平？

Yes. So let me give you a little bit more color about that then, Justin. I mean I mentioned the notes that we had robust business continuity plans. We had just consolidated our operations in Tewkesbury into a brand-new facility, which we took the keys of a year ago. We moved all of our manufacturing equipment in there, and we were seven days ahead of an official opening of that site when it was hit by this flood.

是的。那麼，賈斯汀，讓我給你更多的資訊。我的意思是我提到我們有強大的業務連續性計劃。我們剛剛將圖克斯伯里的業務整合到一個全新的設施中，一年前我們拿到了該設施的鑰匙。我們把所有的製造設備都搬到了那裡，距離正式開業還有 7 天，工廠就遭遇了洪水襲擊。

So it was a really crushing incident for the staff on site who had invested so much time and effort in setting that facility up for the future. However, when the flood happened, we had all hands on deck 24 hours a day, I would say people were totally committed to work through weekends to see what we could do. And we had installed, I would say, redundant facilities at the site. So we have two different types of oil that are used in our hydraulic product. We had two separate development labs fitted out.

因此，對於現場的工作人員來說，這確實是一次令人心碎的事件，他們投入了大量的時間和精力來為未來建造設施。然而，當洪水發生時，我們全天 24 小時都在甲板上，我想說，人們完全致力於週末工作，看看我們能做些什麼。我想說，我們在現場安裝了多餘的設施。因此，我們的液壓產品中使用兩種不同類型的油。我們配備了兩個獨立的開發實驗室。

And what we were able to do was move what was standard production into those development labs and to get running again within about a week or 1.5 weeks of the flood event in those two development labs they won't give us full capacity at the site, but we are certainly over 50% capacity with that capability already on stream. The work that we have to do during the course of the year is to rebuild the clean room in Tewkesbury, and that will get us back to the full capacity.

我們能夠做的是將標準生產轉移到這些開發實驗室，並在洪水事件發生後大約一周或 1.5 週內重新運行，這兩個開發實驗室不會為我們提供現場的全部產能，但我們肯定超過50% 的產能已經投入使用。我們今年要做的工作是重建圖克斯伯里的無塵室，這將使我們恢復全部產能。

So it's not that we're knocked out. We're up and running again. We just don't have the full capacity available. And we believe that we can regain that during the course of the fiscal year.

所以這並不是說我們被淘汰了。我們又恢復正常運作了。我們只是沒有足夠的可用能力。我們相信我們可以在本財年期間重新獲得這一點。

Got it. That's super helpful. Best of luck on that front.

知道了。這非常有幫助。祝你在這方面好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And it appears there are no additional questions in the queue. I will now turn the call back to Pat Roche for any closing remarks.

隊列中似乎沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給帕特·羅奇，請其發表結束語。

So thank you very much for joining us today on the call. I look forward to talking to you again in January. Thank you for your time. Bye now.

非常感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我期待在一月份再次與您交談。感謝您抽出時間。再見了。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。