Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) 2027 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Modine's second quarter fiscal 2027 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Kathy Powers, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations.

    各位女士、先生,早安,歡迎參加 Modine 2027 會計年度第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給今天的主持人——Kathy Powers,副總裁、財務長兼投資人關係負責人。

  • Kathleen Powers - Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations

    Kathleen Powers - Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations

  • Hello, and good morning. Welcome to our conference call to discuss Modine's second quarter fiscal 2027 results. I'm joined by Neil Brinker, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mick Lucareli, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The slides that we'll be using with today's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, modine.com.

    各位好,早安。歡迎參加我們的電話會議,討論 Modine 2027 會計年度第二季的業績結果。與我一同出席的有我們的總裁暨執行長 Neil Brinker,以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Mick Lucareli。今天簡報所使用的投影片已公布於我們網站 modine.com 的投資人關係專區。

  • On slide 3 of that deck is our notice regarding forward-looking statements. This call will contain forward-looking statements as outlined in our earnings release as well as with our company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Neil.

    在該簡報第 3 頁是我們關於前瞻性陳述的聲明。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,內容如同我們的財報新聞稿以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件所述。接下來,我把電話交給 Neil。

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'm going to start out with the segment updates and then turn it over to Mick to review the financial results for the quarter. Let's jump in. Starting with data centers, we delivered another impressive quarter with revenues increasing 95% from the prior year. We achieved our fourth consecutive quarter of record orders, exceeding $1 billion in quarterly order intake for the first time in our history.

    謝謝你,Kathy,各位早安。今天早上我將先從各事業部門的最新進展開始,接著交由 Mick 回顧本季的財務結果。我們開始吧。先談資料中心,我們再度交出亮眼的一季,營收較去年同期成長 95%。我們連續第四季創下訂單新高,且公司史上首次單季接單金額突破 10 億美元。

  • Strong demand has pushed our backlog to another historic high. In addition, we recently received a major new program award with a strategic hyperscaler customer. Through this partnership, we will supply more than $400 million of custom air handling units through calendar year 2027 to cool next-generation data centers.

    強勁需求使我們的在手訂單(backlog)再創歷史新高。此外,我們近期也從一位策略性超大規模雲端(hyperscaler)客戶取得一項重大新專案授標。透過此合作夥伴關係,我們將在 2027 年曆年之前供應超過 4 億美元的客製化空氣處理機組,用於冷卻下一代資料中心。

  • We have continually added manufacturing capacity to support the surging demand for our air handling products since acquiring the Scott Springfield business in 2024. To that end, we are currently launching production at our third dedicated data center facility in Calgary and are actively increasing throughput at our facility in Franklin, Wisconsin. Demand continues to be incredibly strong across our entire data center cooling portfolio, and we are strategically using 80/20 principles to manage this growth. Regarding our overall capacity expansion, we remain firmly on track.

    自 2024 年收購 Scott Springfield 業務以來,我們持續增加製造產能,以支援空氣處理產品需求的快速攀升。為此,我們目前正在卡加利啟動第三座專用資料中心廠的量產,並積極提升威斯康辛州富蘭克林廠的產出。我們整個資料中心冷卻產品組合的需求依然極為強勁,我們正策略性運用 80/20 原則來管理這波成長。就整體產能擴張而言,我們仍然穩健按計畫推進。

  • We currently have 13 chiller lines up and running and remain fully committed to reaching 20 operational lines by the end of the fiscal year. A massive part of executing this capacity expansion has been stabilizing our supply chain, and I'm pleased to report that we have made significant progress during this quarter. Over the past few months, the reliability of our supply chain has steadily improved, and we have entered into multiple LTAs with key suppliers to lock in volume for critical components in 2027.

    目前我們已有 13 條冷水機(chiller)產線投入運作,並仍全力以赴,目標在本會計年度結束前達到 20 條可運作產線。執行這項產能擴張的一大關鍵,是讓供應鏈穩定下來;我很高興向各位報告,我們在本季取得了顯著進展。過去幾個月,我們供應鏈的可靠度持續改善,並已與關鍵供應商簽訂多項長期協議(LTA),以鎖定 2027 年關鍵零組件的供貨量。

  • We've also continued to share our future volume requirements with our suppliers so that they can confidently increase their own capacity but their expansions take time to ramp. This supply-demand imbalance is leading to higher prices incremental to the materials inflation and tariffs. We are working on cost sharing and pass-through mechanics, but that takes time as well. In addition, we occasionally get surprised by other smaller disruptions.

    我們也持續與供應商分享未來的需求量,讓他們能更有信心擴充自身產能,但其擴產仍需要時間爬坡。這種供需失衡正導致價格上升,且增幅高於原物料通膨與關稅所帶來的影響。我們正在推動成本分攤與轉嫁(pass-through)機制,但這同樣需要時間。此外,我們偶爾也會受到其他較小型的干擾而措手不及。

  • While these may not result in material production impacts, they can still create delays in short-term inefficiencies. Furthermore, we continue to leverage the specialized capabilities of our Commercial HVAC segment to support the rapid growth of our data center business. Commercial HVAC is already successfully producing V-Block subassemblies for our chillers and recently passed testing for another critical component, officially adding them to our qualified supplier panel.

    雖然這些情況未必會對產量造成重大影響,但仍可能導致延遲與短期效率不彰。另外,我們也持續運用商用 HVAC 事業部門的專業能力,支援資料中心業務的快速成長。商用 HVAC 目前已成功為我們的冷水機生產 V-Block 次組件,並且近期通過另一項關鍵零件的測試,正式納入我們的合格供應商名單。

  • Scaling our supply chain as we expand capacity to meet demand presents a number of challenges that need to be continually managed. That said, we are in a much stronger position than we were 90 days ago, and I'm incredibly proud of what the team has accomplished. Please turn to slide 5. The Commercial HVAC segment also delivered a strong quarter with revenues increasing 23% from the prior year. Our coils business continues to benefit from higher sales to data center customers.

    在擴產以滿足需求的同時擴大供應鏈規模,會帶來許多需要持續管理的挑戰。即便如此,相較於 90 天前,我們已處於更強勢的位置,我也為團隊所完成的成果感到非常自豪。請翻到第 5 頁。商用 HVAC 事業部門同樣交出強勁的一季,營收較去年同期成長 23%。我們的盤管(coils)業務持續受惠於對資料中心客戶的銷售增加。

  • Our CHVAC segment has a significant opportunity to drive incremental growth in the data center market, and we are currently executing on several strategic fronts. First, we have been selling coils directly to various external data center cooling companies for some time, which was a primary driver of our revenue growth over the past several quarters.

    我們的 CHVAC 事業部門在資料中心市場具備顯著的增量成長機會,目前正從多個策略面向推進。首先,我們一段時間以來一直直接向多家外部資料中心冷卻公司銷售盤管,這也是過去幾季營收成長的主要動能。

  • Second, we are capitalizing on a developing trend where hyperscalers are getting involved in downstream sourcing, specifically identifying qualified Tier 2 suppliers for custom data center cooling products. We are currently in active discussions with one of our strategic customers to become a key coils provider within their supply chain.

    第二,我們正把握一項正在形成的趨勢:超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)開始介入下游採購,特別是為客製化資料中心冷卻產品辨識合格的二級供應商(Tier 2)。我們目前正與一位策略性客戶積極洽談,期望成為其供應鏈中的關鍵盤管供應商。

  • This represents a major incremental opportunity for our Commercial HVAC business that could lead to significant future orders. Additionally, our coil sales are creating a strong pull-through effect for our coatings business as many customers request specialized coatings to prevent corrosion in harsh environments. Our coatings business had an outstanding quarter with revenues up 28% from the prior year. Finally, CHVAC has multiple opportunities to support our own data center business.

    這對我們的商用 HVAC 業務而言是一項重大的增量機會,未來可能帶來可觀的新訂單。此外,我們的盤管銷售也對塗層(coatings)業務產生強勁的帶動效應,因為許多客戶會要求使用特殊塗層,以防止在嚴苛環境下腐蝕。我們的塗層業務本季表現出色,營收較去年同期成長 28%。最後,CHVAC 也有多項機會可支援我們自有的資料中心業務。

  • As I mentioned, we're currently producing V-Block subassemblies for our chillers and plan to start supplementing our current supply needs with additional CHVAC manufactured products later this fiscal year. These are exciting opportunities that should drive revenue growth in the near term, fully supported by our disciplined 80/20 focus.

    如我所提到的,我們目前正在為冷水機生產 V-Block 次組件,並計畫在本會計年度稍晚開始以更多由 CHVAC 製造的產品來補充我們目前的供應需求。這些都是令人振奮的機會,預期可在短期內帶動營收成長,並完全符合我們嚴謹的 80/20 聚焦策略。

  • We are also seeing excellent growth opportunities elsewhere in the segment. Specifically, we are expanding our product line for portable heating products that we acquired as part of the LB White transaction last year. Overall, there's a wealth of opportunities for both revenue growth and margin expansion within the CHVAC segment. Please turn to slide 6.

    我們也在該事業部門的其他領域看到極佳的成長機會。具體而言,我們正在擴充去年 LB White 交易中所取得的可攜式加熱產品線。整體而言,CHVAC 事業部門在營收成長與毛利率擴張方面都擁有豐富的機會。請翻到第 6 頁。

  • As you know, we successfully closed on the spin-off of our Performance Technologies business and merger with Gentherm on October 1 as planned. Preparing for this transaction of this scale was a massive undertaking for both teams, and I'm pleased to report that the initial phases of the transition are going smoothly. I want to extend my sincere gratitude to our internal team who tirelessly manage the complex work streams required to execute this transaction as well as to our external advisers.

    如各位所知,我們已按計畫於 10 月 1 日順利完成 Performance Technologies 業務的分拆(spin-off)以及與 Gentherm 的合併。為如此規模的交易做準備,對雙方團隊而言都是一項龐大的工程;我很高興向各位報告,轉換的初期階段進展順利。我想向我們內部團隊致上誠摯謝意,他們不懈地管理執行此交易所需的複雜工作流程,同時也感謝我們的外部顧問。

  • Gentherm has been an outstanding partner throughout this process, and we are confident they will provide a fantastic home for that business. For Modine, this milestone represents a clean strategic separation that allows us to focus 100% of our resources on our highest growth, highest margin thermal management opportunities.

    Gentherm 在整個過程中一直是非常出色的合作夥伴,我們也有信心他們將為該業務提供極佳的歸屬。對 Modine 而言,這個里程碑代表一項清晰的策略性分離,使我們能將 100% 的資源聚焦於成長性最高、毛利率最高的熱管理機會。

  • Finally, I'd like to remind everyone of our upcoming Analyst and Investor Day planned for November 18. We are holding the event in Chicago with a live webcast for those not planning to attend in person. We will provide an in-depth review of the company's strategy, including growth opportunities for both segments, along with our new long-term financial targets. It should be a great event.

    最後,我想提醒各位,我們即將於 11 月 18 日舉辦的分析師與投資人日活動。活動將在芝加哥舉行,並為不打算親臨現場的與會者提供線上即時網路直播。我們將深入檢視公司的策略,包括兩大事業部門的成長機會,以及我們新的長期財務目標。這將會是一場很棒的活動。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Mick.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 Mick。

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Neil, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 7 to review the Q2 segment results. Beginning with data centers, I want to highlight the exceptional rate of revenue and earnings growth, which continues to outpace the rest of the market with a 95%, increase in sales. Americas sales grew 132%, driven by strong demand from hyperscale customers and EMEA sales decreased 6%, mainly due to the timing of shipments.

    謝謝你,Neil,各位早安。請翻到第 7 張投影片,檢視第二季(Q2)各事業部門的業績。先從資料中心開始,我想強調營收與獲利成長的卓越速度,銷售額成長 95%,持續領先市場其他同業。美洲地區銷售成長 132%,主要受超大型(hyperscale)客戶強勁需求帶動;而 EMEA 地區銷售下滑 6%,主要是因出貨時點所致。

  • Adjusted EBITDA grew 66%, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%. As I discussed last quarter, we reported a nice sequential margin improvement from the first quarter. However, this was somewhat lower than we anticipated. On the positive side, we continue to see a lower impact from the fixed cost absorption and expansion costs. This was relatively in line with our expectations.

    調整後 EBITDA 成長 66%,使調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到 15.4%。如同我在上季所提到的,我們相較第一季呈現不錯的季增利潤率改善。不過,這仍略低於我們的預期。正面來看,我們持續看到固定成本吸收與擴產成本的影響降低。整體而言,這與我們的預期大致一致。

  • However, the supply chain and material impacts were larger and are lingering longer than we had expected. These can be grouped into a few key baskets, including logistics with a negative impact from tariffs, raw material inflation and higher prices paid to our suppliers to secure volume. We're working on commercial actions for current and future programs to address these additional costs, and we're confident that we can recover these costs.

    然而,供應鏈與材料面的影響比我們預期更大,且持續時間也更久。這些影響可歸納為幾個關鍵類別,包括物流(關稅帶來的負面影響)、原物料通膨,以及為確保供貨量而支付給供應商的較高價格。我們正針對目前與未來的專案採取商業行動,以因應這些額外成本,並且有信心能夠回收這些成本。

  • We remain excited about the overall positive momentum in this segment and anticipate further margin improvements through the second half of the year. Based on our updated revenue and margin outlook, we anticipate that the Data Center segment will generate earnings growth in excess of 80% this year. Please turn to slide 8 to review Commercial HVAC. Commercial HVAC also delivered strong revenue growth with a 23% increase in sales.

    我們對此事業部門整體正向動能仍感到振奮,並預期在今年下半年利潤率將進一步改善。基於我們更新後的營收與利潤率展望,我們預期資料中心事業部門今年的獲利成長將超過 80%。請翻到第 8 張投影片,檢視商用 HVAC。商用 HVAC 也交出強勁的營收成長,銷售額增加 23%。

  • HVAC Technologies sales increased 20% and Heat Transfer Solutions sales improved 16%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 22%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was flat to the prior year at 15.1%. Similar to the Data Center segment, we anticipated a higher margin in the second quarter. The major driver of the flat margin was the mix of product sales along with higher material and tariff costs. Commercial HVAC remains on track for the year as the leadership team focuses on driving both growth and margin expansion through 80/20 initiatives.

    HVAC Technologies 銷售成長 20%,Heat Transfer Solutions 銷售提升 16%。調整後 EBITDA 成長 22%,而調整後 EBITDA 利潤率與去年同期持平,為 15.1%。與資料中心事業部門類似,我們原本預期第二季利潤率會更高。利潤率持平的主要原因是產品銷售組合,以及較高的材料與關稅成本。商用 HVAC 全年仍按計畫推進,領導團隊聚焦透過 80/20 計畫同時推動成長與利潤率擴張。

  • We expect double-digit earnings growth and incremental improvements in the adjusted EBITDA margin during the second half of the fiscal year. Please turn to slide 9. For Performance Technologies, I'll keep my comments relatively brief given the recently completed spin-off and merger with Gentherm. Sales were relatively flat with Heavy-Duty up 11% and On-Highway down 5%.

    我們預期在本會計年度下半年,獲利將呈現雙位數成長,且調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將逐步改善。請翻到第 9 張投影片。關於 Performance Technologies,鑑於近期已完成分拆並與 Gentherm 合併,我的評論將相對簡短。銷售大致持平,其中重型(Heavy-Duty)成長 11%,公路用(On-Highway)下滑 5%。

  • Adjusted EBITDA declined 3% from the prior year and adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.2%. These results were generally in line with our expectations. As Neil covered, the separation plan and merger with Gentherm was completed on October 1. We are very proud of the improvement made these past few years by the Performance Technologies business and its legacy for Modine. Gentherm and Modine are a fantastic combination with a bright future, and we wish them all the best.

    調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期下滑 3%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.2%。整體結果大致符合我們的預期。如 Neil 所述,分離計畫以及與 Gentherm 的合併已於 10 月 1 日完成。我們對 Performance Technologies 事業在過去幾年所取得的改善,以及其為 Modine 所留下的傳承,感到非常自豪。Gentherm 與 Modine 的結合非常出色、前景光明,我們祝福他們一切順利。

  • Now let's review the total company results. Please turn to slide 10. Second quarter sales increased 35%. And I want to point out that if we just look at our remaining data center and commercial HVAC segments, revenue growth was 59%.

    現在讓我們檢視公司整體的業績。請翻到第 10 張投影片。第二季銷售成長 35%。我也想指出,如果只看我們保留的資料中心與商用 HVAC 兩個事業部門,營收成長為 59%。

  • Gross margin declined by 160 basis points to 20.7%, driven by lower margins in all 3 segments and largely due to material cost inflation. Although we continue to invest in incremental SG&A to support growth, we're controlling the spending as a percentage of sales. Reported SG&A also includes $14.1 million of expenses directly related to the spin-off of the Performance Technologies business.

    毛利率下滑 160 個基點至 20.7%,主要是三個事業部門的利潤率皆下降,且大多由材料成本通膨所致。雖然我們持續增加 SG&A(銷售、一般及行政費用)投資以支持成長,但我們正控制其占銷售額的比例。已報告的 SG&A 亦包含與 Performance Technologies 事業分拆直接相關的 1,410 萬美元費用。

  • I'm pleased to report that adjusted EBITDA increased $32.4 million or 31%, resulting in a 13.7% adjusted EBITDA margin. As I previously discussed, the actual margin was somewhat lower than we anticipated, but there continues to be sequential improvements as we launch more volume and recover material costs. In Q2, there was a 150 basis point improvement from the first quarter, and we expect to see further improvements in the second half of the year.

    我很高興報告,調整後 EBITDA 增加 3,240 萬美元(或 31%),使調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到 13.7%。如我先前所提,實際利潤率略低於我們的預期,但隨著我們推出更多產量並回收材料成本,利潤率仍持續呈現逐季改善。在第二季,相較第一季改善了 150 個基點,我們預期今年下半年還會進一步改善。

  • Adjusted earnings per share was $1.35, 27% higher than the prior year. This excludes $29.5 million of income tax expense related to legal entity restructuring steps required to spin off the Performance Technologies business.

    調整後每股盈餘為 1.35 美元,較去年同期高 27%。此數字不包含因分拆 Performance Technologies 事業所需的法律實體重組步驟而產生的 2,950 萬美元所得稅費用。

  • Now moving to cash flow metrics. Please turn to slide 11. Free cash flow was negative in the second quarter, primarily due to the working capital and capital investments in data centers, along with expenses related to the Performance Technologies spin-off. As expected, we're deploying cash for working capital to support our growing data center customer demand and protect our production from supply chain constraints. In addition, we incurred $27.7 million of cash payments, primarily for restructuring and disposition-related costs.

    接著談現金流量指標。請翻到第 11 張投影片。第二季自由現金流為負,主要原因是資料中心的營運資金與資本投資,以及與 Performance Technologies 分拆相關的費用。如預期,我們正投入現金於營運資金,以支援資料中心客戶需求成長,並保護我們的生產免受供應鏈限制影響。此外,我們支付了 2,770 萬美元現金,主要用於重整與處分相關成本。

  • Lastly, cash taxes were higher than normal due to some unique situations and significant customer LTA payments. Net debt was $211 million higher than the prior fiscal year-end, but we received approximately $200 million from Gentherm on October 1, which was used to repay debt. Based on our current outlook for earnings and cash flow, we expect the leverage ratio will decrease further by year-end.

    最後,由於一些特殊情況以及客戶重大 LTA 付款,現金稅金高於正常水準。淨負債較上一會計年度期末增加 2.11 億美元,但我們於 10 月 1 日自 Gentherm 收到約 2 億美元,並用於償還債務。基於我們目前對獲利與現金流的展望,我們預期槓桿比率將在年底前進一步下降。

  • Now let's turn to slide 12 for our fiscal '27 outlook. As announced in our press release, we're updating our fiscal '27 guidance to reflect our higher revenue outlook for our remaining businesses and the successful spin-off of the Performance Technologies business.

    現在請翻到第 12 張投影片,檢視我們 2027 會計年度('27)的展望。如同我們在新聞稿中宣布的,我們正在更新 2027 會計年度的財測指引,以反映我們對保留業務較高的營收展望,以及 Performance Technologies 事業成功分拆。

  • Starting with the third quarter, we'll report historical results for this business as discontinued operations. So our current outlook now excludes Performance Technologies revenue and earnings for the full year. Table is available in the appendix providing a recast of financial information for net sales and adjusted EBITDA by quarter for fiscal '26 and year-to-date fiscal '27. We expect total company sales to be in the range of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion, representing a 50% to 55% increase from the prior year, excluding Performance Technologies revenue from both periods.

    自第三季起,我們將把該業務的歷史結果列為終止營業(discontinued operations)。因此,我們目前的展望已排除 Performance Technologies 全年營收與獲利。附錄中提供表格,重新編製 2026 會計年度('26)以及 2027 會計年度截至目前('27 year-to-date)按季度的淨銷售額與調整後 EBITDA 財務資訊。我們預期公司總銷售額將介於 31 億至 32 億美元之間;在兩期皆排除 Performance Technologies 營收後,這相當於較去年成長 50% 至 55%。

  • We expect data center sales to grow 80% to 90% and expect commercial HVAC sales to grow 10% to 15% from the prior year. I want to highlight that both of these ranges represent an increase from our segment outlook last quarter. With revenue expectations increasing, we're still expecting continued margin improvement in the back half of the year. However, we believe that margins will improve at a lower rate than originally anticipated, mostly due to ongoing cost increases across the supply base.

    我們預期資料中心銷售將成長 80% 至 90%,並預期商用 HVAC 銷售較前一年成長 10% 至 15%。我想強調,這兩個區間都較我們上季對該事業部門的展望有所上修。隨著營收預期提高,我們仍預期今年下半年毛利率將持續改善。然而,我們認為毛利率改善的速度將低於原先預期,主要是因為供應鏈基礎端的成本持續上升。

  • Given the revenue outlook and ongoing improvements in margins, I'm pleased to say that we expect fiscal '27 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $470 million to $500 million, representing a growth rate in excess of 50%.

    基於營收展望以及毛利率的持續改善,我很高興地表示,我們預期 2027 會計年度調整後 EBITDA 將落在 4.70 億至 5.00 億美元區間,代表成長率超過 50%。

  • Again, this outlook excludes Performance Technologies from the full fiscal year. From a free cash flow perspective, we expect to generate positive cash flow for the full year, making up for the use of cash in the first two quarters. And as I previously mentioned, we received approximately $200 million of cash on October 1. And while it is not included in our free cash flow calculation, it was used to repay debt. And to wrap up, we remain excited about our fiscal '27 outlook with outstanding revenue and earnings growth. Very few companies are generating earnings growth in excess of 50%.

    再次說明,此展望不包含 Performance Technologies 的整個會計年度。就自由現金流而言,我們預期全年將產生正向現金流,以彌補前兩季的現金使用。此外,如我先前提到的,我們在 10 月 1 日收到約 2.00 億美元現金。雖然這筆款項未納入我們的自由現金流計算,但已用於償還債務。最後,我們對 2027 會計年度展望仍感到振奮,營收與獲利成長表現亮眼。

  • And I'm proud to say this would represent our fifth consecutive year of adjusted EBITDA growth in excess of 20%. We're looking forward to our next chapter as Modexus Solutions as we're truly a new company and have an exciting future to share with our shareholders. As Neil mentioned, we're holding an Analyst and Investor Day on November 18. Neil and the entire team are looking forward to providing a new strategic update on this next phase of our transformation, along with an exciting financial outlook for fiscal '28 and for fiscal '29. With that, Neil and I will take your questions.

    我也很自豪地表示,這將代表我們連續第五年調整後 EBITDA 成長超過 20%。我們期待以 Modexus Solutions 的身分開啟下一篇章,因為我們確實是一家全新的公司,並有令人振奮的未來可與股東分享。如 Neil 所提到的,我們將於 11 月 18 日舉辦分析師與投資人日。Neil 與整個團隊期待就我們轉型下一階段提供新的策略更新,並分享 2028 會計年度與 2029 會計年度令人振奮的財務展望。接下來,Neil 和我將回答各位的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Matt Summerville, D.A. Davidson.

    Matt Summerville,D.A. Davidson。

  • Matthew Summerville - Analyst

    Matthew Summerville - Analyst

  • Can we maybe start with data center margins? To keep it easy, if you did roughly 15% EBITDA in the first half of the year, sort of implies you need to get to somewhere in the low 20s, let's say, in the second half of the year if data center profits are set to rise by 80% as indicated in the deck and in prepared remarks. Can you specifically spell out what gets you there? Why not maybe derisk that cadence more meaningfully?

    我們能否先從資料中心的利潤率談起?為了簡化,如果你們上半年 EBITDA 約 15%,那麼若如簡報與事先準備稿所述資料中心獲利將上升 80%,就意味著下半年大概要提升到 20% 出頭(例如 20% 初段)左右。你們能否具體說明是什麼因素讓你們達到那個水準?為什麼不把這個改善節奏更有意義地去風險化(derisk)?

  • And I guess, why should investors feel that this is a dependable sort of outlook? And can you bridge how much of this gap between, say, 15% and 21% first half, second half? -- how much of that is sort of solved by price capture? And if you can comment on the cadence between the two quarters, that would be helpful. And then I have one follow-up.

    另外,我想問投資人為什麼應該相信這是一個可靠的展望?你們能否拆解一下,例如上半年 15% 到下半年 21% 之間的差距,其中有多少是靠價格回收(price capture)來解決?如果也能評論一下兩個季度之間的節奏,那會很有幫助。然後我還有一個追問。

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Matt, it's Mick. So as we look at second half of the year, we continue to expect a step-up each quarter sequentially. You're right in the high-level math based on our public comments there. Q3, we'd expect to see 100 to 200 basis point sequential improvement and then another step up in Q4 with the target of getting to 20% or above in Q4. And two major drivers. So we've talked a lot about first half of the year around labor and overhead. Those have been, as expected, those were coming in much in line with our outlook for Q2.

    Matt,我是 Mick。就今年下半年來看,我們仍預期每一季都會逐季上升。你基於我們公開評論所做的高層次推算是對的。第三季我們預期可逐季改善 100 到 200 個基點,第四季再進一步提升,目標是在第四季達到 20% 或以上。主要有兩個驅動因素。我們在上半年談了很多關於人力與間接費用(overhead)。如預期所示,這些在第二季的表現大致符合我們的展望。

  • So as we talked about, materials has been a significant increase. And in the quarter, that was about 375 basis points. So when we look to the second half of the year, there's two big drivers. One, volume is a big one. The conversion rate on incremental volume is quite high, way above, as you can imagine, at a variable level.

    如我們所談到的,材料成本出現了顯著上升。在本季,這大約影響了 375 個基點。因此當我們看下半年時,有兩個主要驅動因素。第一,出貨量(volume)是一個關鍵因素。增量出貨量的轉換率相當高,在變動成本層面上,如你所想像的,遠高於一般水準。

  • So more volume we're putting through is coming through at a much higher margin than our targets of being at a 20% level. Secondly, we are going to recover material costs. And we have contracts in place. We already have commercial negotiations. So that recovery of material cost is going to improve our material margin. And again, if you just look at first half, second half, again, Q2 was 375 basis points at a minimum between all of our material cost increases. This was kind of the headwind or the penalty in the quarter.

    因此,我們增加的出貨量所帶來的利潤率,會明顯高於我們以 20% 水準為目標的假設。第二,我們將回收材料成本。我們已簽訂合約。我們也已完成商務談判。因此,材料成本的回收將改善我們的材料毛利率。再者,如果你只看上半年與下半年,第二季在所有材料成本上升的影響合計至少是 375 個基點。這就是本季的逆風或不利因素(penalty)。

  • Matthew Summerville - Analyst

    Matthew Summerville - Analyst

  • And then I'm sure you guys internally have been talking about potential election outcomes. And I would imagine if I don't ask, it's going to get asked on the call. But does this outcome change the shape of your growth trajectory or the fundamental thermal backdrop for you in the United States? And putting that aside for a second, just given that we're looking at a stock price sub-$100, how are you thinking about potential aggressive share buybacks given the state of your balance sheet?

    另外,我相信你們內部也一直在討論可能的選舉結果。我想如果我不問,電話會議上也一定會有人問。但這個結果是否會改變你們在美國的成長軌跡形狀,或對你們而言基本面的散熱(thermal)需求背景?先把這點放一邊,考量到目前股價低於 100 美元,你們如何看待在資產負債表狀況之下,進行更積極的庫藏股回購的可能性?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Matt, this is Neil. Yes, certainly, we've all thought about the outcome of the elections, and I don't think there's really a big surprise here in terms of what shook out last night. I know that we're seeing a robust, healthy backlog that goes well beyond 2 to 3 years, and there's an immediate demand even today.

    Matt,我是 Neil。是的,當然,我們都思考過選舉結果,我認為昨晚的結果並沒有太大的意外。我知道我們看到的是強勁且健康的在手訂單(backlog),其能見度遠超過 2 到 3 年,而且即使在今天也存在即期需求。

  • So there's already many data centers that are in flight that have been permitted that are going to require multiple years of building and preparing. So those things are kind of in position and in place. For us, I believe that we're going to see even increased demand from this because as you remember, when we broke into the data center market, we broke in as a sustainability play. We broke in as our first data center customers were the only customers that offered a carbon-neutral data center.

    因此,已經有許多資料中心專案正在進行中,且已取得許可,未來將需要多年的建置與準備。所以這些事情基本上都已就位並在推進。對我們而言,我相信這反而會帶來更高的需求,因為如你所記得的,當我們切入資料中心市場時,我們是以永續(sustainability)訴求切入。我們最早的資料中心客戶,是唯一提供碳中和資料中心的客戶。

  • And when you offer a carbon-neutral data center, you have to have the best power use effectiveness and the best water use effectiveness. You have to be able to ensure that you are conserving energy and water. And that has been our niche and that has been our play. And I believe going forward with data centers, particularly in many local communities here in the United States, that that's going to be important for people to understand that you're using the best technology in order to drive down energy costs and drive down water usage.

    而當你提供碳中和資料中心時,你必須具備最佳的電力使用效率(PUE)以及最佳的用水效率(WUE)。你必須能確保節約能源與用水。這一直是我們的利基所在,也是我們的策略打法。我相信未來資料中心,特別是在美國許多地方社區,讓大家理解你正在使用最佳技術以降低能源成本並降低用水量,將會非常重要。

  • That's our play. That's our differentiation. That's how we broke into the market. I think that's going to continue to trend that way.

    這就是我們的打法。這就是我們的差異化。這就是我們如何打入市場。我認為這個趨勢會持續下去。

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And Matt, on the buyback, we're -- like everybody this morning, we're digesting the news to the elections and how the markets reacted to the data center space. But to your question, at the current share price, that will obviously be a big topic with our Board as soon as we meet with them. More to come there, but that will clearly be a topic with our Board.

    Matt,關於庫藏股回購,我們——跟今天早上一樣的所有人——正在消化選舉相關的消息,以及市場對資料中心領域反應的情況。但就你的問題而言,以目前的股價來看,這顯然會在我們一與董事會會面時成為重大議題。後續還會有更多資訊,但這無疑會是我們與董事會討論的主題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

    Noah Kaye,Oppenheimer。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • Yes, I would like to follow up on the margin trajectory as well. Mick, I think you said maybe 100 to 200 bps step-up is what you contemplated for 3Q on data center margins. Is that correct?

    是的,我也想追問一下毛利率走勢。Mick,我想你提到第三季資料中心毛利率,你預期可能會上升約100到200個基點。是這樣嗎?

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, correct.

    是的,沒錯。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • Yes. So that would imply 4Q margins materially above 20%. I want to confirm that. And I understand what is sort of the -- if any, outsized margin benefit you get in that quarter. I don't know if there's a timing that's anticipated on material recoveries. Or is that kind of really the right level to think about as a jumping off point going into '28. Maybe you can comment on that. And maybe even following up on that point, the visibility you now have into the cost base through some of these LTAs that I know have been a big lift for the company over the last couple of months.

    好的,那這就意味著第四季毛利率會顯著高於20%。我想確認一下這點。另外我也想了解,該季是否會有——如果有的話——特別突出的毛利率利多。我不確定是否預期在材料追溯補償(recoveries)的時點上會有影響。或者,這其實就是進入2028年時可作為起點來思考的合理水準。也許你可以評論一下。另外延伸這點,我也想追問:透過一些我知道過去幾個月對公司幫助很大的長期協議(LTA),你們現在對成本基礎的可視性如何?

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I'll go first, Noah. There's a lot to what you said there, but I'll try to hit it all. Yes, the -- so Q4 would be another sizable lift from if we're in a 16.5%, 17.5% margin in Q3 and Q4. The big driver in Q4 besides continued improvement in our material cost ratios is volume. So if we look at second half implied volume that's kind of in a 80%, 90% range Q3, I would see in another like 80% type growth rate. And obviously, Q4 gets us 90% plus. So that level of volume going through is a big lift.

    是的,Noah,我先回答。你剛剛提到的內容很多,但我會盡量都涵蓋。是的——所以如果第三季毛利率在16.5%到17.5%之間,第四季會再有一個相當可觀的提升。第四季的主要驅動因素,除了我們材料成本比率持續改善之外,還有出貨量(volume)。所以如果看下半年隱含的量,第三季大概在80%到90%的區間,我會看到再有大約80%這樣的成長率。而且很明顯,第四季會讓我們達到90%以上。因此,這樣的出貨量通過會帶來很大的拉升。

  • Also, the more programs that we are quoting, launching and so forth are all adjusting pricing real time. What I kind of want to make sure we cover with all of you is when we've talked the last few quarters, we started seeing some of the a few key components, and we talked to all of you about that, and we've gone back to our customers to recover those. At the same time, there's just general inflation we're seeing across aluminum, copper, steel, 30% core Q1, 30% Q2. These are things we didn't necessarily anticipate in the agreement. So they've had to go back.

    另外,我們正在報價、導入(launching)等的更多專案,都在即時調整定價。我想確保我們跟各位都說清楚的是:過去幾季我們談到,我們開始看到一些關鍵零組件(a few key components)的情況,我們也跟各位提過,並且我們已經回到客戶那邊去追討(recover)這些成本。同時,我們也看到鋁、銅、鋼等原物料的整體通膨,第一季核心上漲30%,第二季也上漲30%。這些並不是我們在協議中原本就預期到的。所以他們必須回去重新談。

  • And Neil can comment, our customers are very supportive about recovering those. So we have a little bit of a lag effect on that element. But then certainly, as we're quoting new programs and receiving new POs, we're negotiating that upfront, which is a combination of tariffs, raw material costs and then purchase component cost. That's what -- so that's the impact in Q2, but the opportunity set for us as we go into Q3 and Q4.

    Neil也可以補充,我們的客戶在協助我們回收這些成本方面非常支持。所以在這個部分我們會有一點滯後效應。但當然,當我們在報價新專案並收到新的採購訂單(PO)時,我們會在前端就把這些談好,內容包含關稅、原物料成本,以及外購零組件成本。這就是——這是第二季的影響,但也是我們進入第三季與第四季時的機會集合。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • And to tie into that -- I'm sorry, Neil, I don't know if we were going to add anything else. But to tie into that, I mean, these 4 quarters of record orders, your book-to-bill was greater than two this quarter. I guess, how is the better pricing that you're talking about embedded in the orders in the backlog? And can we just get a sense of where this backlog coverage really puts you both for the back half and even into '28?

    再把這點串起來——抱歉,Neil,我不確定你是否還要補充其他內容。但把這點串起來,我是說,你們已經連續四個季度創下訂單新高,本季的接單出貨比(book-to-bill)大於2。我想問的是,你剛提到的較佳定價,是如何反映在積壓訂單(backlog)的訂單之中?另外,我們能否了解一下,這些積壓訂單覆蓋度(backlog coverage)對你們下半年、甚至延伸到2028年的能見度意味著什麼?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So just to build a little bit on what Mick was saying, obviously, when we negotiate these LTAs and we negotiate these program wins, we want to make sure that we can open up the agreements when there are things that are material in terms of margins. And we have been able to display that willingness to work with our customers, and that's where you're going to see some of this improvement in the back half to Mick's point. Certainly, to your other question, there'll be a -- this will be very clear in the IR Day update for FY28 and '29 -- next week, two weeks.

    我補充一下Mick剛剛說的。很明顯,當我們談判這些長期協議(LTA)以及拿下這些專案時,我們希望確保當有對毛利率具重大影響的事項時,我們可以重新打開協議來處理。而我們也已經展現出願意與客戶合作的態度,這也是你會在下半年看到一些改善的原因,正如Mick所說。至於你另一個問題,這點會在下週、或兩週後的投資人關係日(IR Day)對FY28與'29的更新中非常清楚地說明——

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Mind that.

    記住這點。

  • Noah Kaye - Analyst

    Noah Kaye - Analyst

  • We're looking forward to it like it's next week. But I know there's a bunch of others with questions, so I'll turn it over --

    我們很期待,就好像是下週一樣。但我知道還有很多人要提問,所以我把時間交出去——

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Moore, CJS Securities.

    Chris Moore,CJS Securities。

  • Christopher Moore - Analyst

    Christopher Moore - Analyst

  • Obviously, lots of noise out there. Maybe just kind of how you would characterize two things from a customer kind of standpoint. One would be what you're hearing in terms of from availability from a cash flow perspective to build? And two is the kind of certainty in terms of the final geographic destination? Is it still -- is that still up in the air on a lot of the work that you're doing at this stage?

    顯然外面雜音很多。也許從客戶的角度,你會如何描述兩件事。第一是,你們聽到的在現金流可用性方面、用來建置(build)的情況如何?第二是,最終地理目的地在確定性方面如何?在你們現階段正在做的許多工作中,這部分是否仍然懸而未決?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think for the work that we're considering that beyond '28 into '29 and 2030, certainly, there's some of that in terms of locations and exact size of gigawatt campuses, there's a little uncertainty there, but we're working through that in terms of how to close that gap. But in the immediate 24 months, it's there. Remember, Chris, we're one of the last products to go into the data center.

    我認為,對於我們正在考量的、超過2028年延伸到2029年與2030年的工作而言,確實在地點以及吉瓦級園區(gigawatt campuses)的確切規模上存在一些不確定性;但我們正在努力找方法縮小這個落差。不過在接下來24個月內,這些是確定的。記得,Chris,我們是資料中心最後才會進場的產品之一。

  • So we can see a site that's been permitted and they start the construction of the site and that can take anywhere from 12 to 18 months. And then you start to bring our equipment in. So the equipment that we're preparing our inventories around that we're going to be building over the next several years are for sites that are permitted and are in place.

    所以我們可以看到一個已取得許可(permitted)的場址,他們開始施工,而施工可能需要12到18個月。然後才開始把我們的設備導入。因此,我們正在準備並建立庫存、未來幾年要生產的設備,都是針對那些已取得許可且已就位的場址。

  • So more of the backlog that we're working on in terms of size as well as locations where that may change from state to state, which we have seen that happen in the past, in size. They continue to get bigger rather than smaller. That's beyond two years from now, Chris.

    所以我們正在處理的積壓訂單,無論是規模或地點,確實可能會在州與州之間變動——我們過去也看過這種情況——以及規模的變化。它們持續變得更大,而不是更小。那是兩年以後的事,Chris。

  • Christopher Moore - Analyst

    Christopher Moore - Analyst

  • Got you. Very helpful. And maybe just -- I know that with Gentherm, there's still, I think, $20 million to $25 million additional costs in the second half for the transition services agreement. Are these costs included in the EBITDA estimate or they'll be adjusted out?

    了解。非常有幫助。另外我想問——我知道與Gentherm相關的過渡服務協議(transition services agreement),下半年似乎還有2,000萬到2,500萬美元的額外成本。這些成本是否已包含在EBITDA預估中,還是會被調整剔除?

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Great question. In our guide is about full year and when we do disc ops, and we remove Performance Technologies from the full year, there would be about $10 million to $15 million of temporary stranded costs. Obviously, we had PT for half the year.

    好問題。在我們的指引中是以全年為基礎;當我們做持續營運(disc ops)並把 Performance Technologies 從全年中剔除時,會有約 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬美元的暫時性閒置成本(stranded costs)。很明顯地,我們在上半年仍有 PT。

  • But if you just back them out in our guide, that includes that. And when we first announced the spin-off, we said we didn't anticipate much in the way of stranded, and we still believe that where those costs will be reabsorbed is through the data center growth. So in other words, all those resources we have working on Performance Technologies at the rate of growth we're adding on data centers, those will be fully absorbed by next fiscal year.

    但如果你只是把它們從我們的指引中回推剔除,那裡面已經包含了這個影響。而且當我們最初宣布分拆時,我們說過不預期會有太多閒置成本,我們現在仍然相信,這些成本最終會透過資料中心的成長被重新吸收。換句話說,以我們目前資料中心新增的成長速度,所有原本投入在 Performance Technologies 的資源,到了下一個會計年度就會被完全吸收。

  • It's just more of an internal accounting. But to be clear, in this interim period with now with PT gone $10 million to $15 million, and it's really a half a year's impact in the second half, about, I'd say, $7 million to $8 million here that we need to redeploy into the data center business. Hope that answers your question.

    這更多是內部會計處理。但要說清楚,在這個過渡期間、現在 PT 已經不在了,這 1,000 萬到 1,500 萬美元其實是下半年約半年的影響;我會說大概有 700 萬到 800 萬美元需要我們重新部署到資料中心業務。希望有回答到你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Tarantino, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    David Tarantino,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • David Tarantino - Equity Analyst

    David Tarantino - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe following up on the data center margins. Can you just take us through how these headwinds progressed through the quarter? I'm particularly thinking back to last quarter's commentary around margins improving in June. So can you give us some color on how this evolved through the quarter and through October as you locked down more supply and worked on price with your customers?

    我想追問一下資料中心的毛利率。你能否帶我們梳理一下,這些逆風在本季是如何演變的?我特別想到你們上季提到 6 月毛利率有所改善的評論。所以你能否提供一些細節,說明這在本季以及到 10 月、當你們鎖定更多供應並與客戶協商價格時,是如何發展的?

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Neil can add more color, David, that I would say that -- again, I go back to what we talked about last quarter was what's really started was we were surprised by some short shipments of a few key components. And Neil talked quite a bit about working through those. What's continued to happen, I'd say, through the quarter, it would be other suppliers coming forward either with shortages or their own volume challenges. And then what comes with that, what -- when I talk about material costs, we have expedited freight and logistics and tariffs.

    可以。David,Neil 可以補充更多細節;我會說——再回到我們上季談到的——真正開始的原因是,我們對幾個關鍵零組件出現短交(short shipments)感到意外。Neil 也談了不少如何處理這些問題。我會說,本季持續發生的是,其他供應商也陸續出現短缺或自身產量/出貨量的挑戰。而隨之而來的——當我談到材料成本時——還包括加急運費與物流,以及關稅。

  • So a couple of things that what's happening as the quarter continued to go on. And I think Matt Summerville had asked a good question. We're trying to get in front of it and make sure why we talked about reducing our outlook for the rate of margin improvement is expecting that this will linger longer. But in some cases, we had some sheet metal suppliers or something that don't -- weren't hitting their deliveries.

    所以隨著季度推進,發生了幾件事。我認為 Matt Summerville 問了一個很好的問題。我們正試圖提前因應;這也是為什麼我們談到下調毛利率改善速度的展望,因為我們預期這些狀況會拖得更久。但在某些情況下,我們有一些鈑金供應商之類的——沒有達到交付。

  • Other cases, we're getting the deliveries that we asked for, but they show up on a Friday instead of a Monday or we're shipping parts that we have in Europe over to North America, so we can utilize them. So a lot of inefficiencies getting the product in the door to keep the lines moving. And I know it's a lot, but it isn't just that, hey, someone called us and we are negotiating a price increase or an LTA that we should've known about. I think it's just almost the day-to-day evolution. Neil, any other color?

    其他情況是,我們拿到的是我們要求的交付量,但它們在星期五才到、而不是星期一;或者我們把在歐洲的零件運到北美,以便能夠使用。所以在把產品送進廠內、維持產線運轉方面,出現了很多低效率。我知道這聽起來很多,但並不只是那種「有人打電話來,我們在談判漲價或我們本該知道的長期協議(LTA)」而已。我認為這幾乎是日常狀況的逐步演變。Neil,還有其他補充嗎?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I think that's good color. I mean, ultimately, we have a decision to make. When we have these challenges in the operations environment with the supply chain, you can look at your customer and apologize and not do anything or you can react to it and try to continue to delight your customers. And sometimes that decision to react to it and do the best you can to meet their commitments and our expectations to meet our delivery schedules is it gets quite costly.

    沒有,我覺得這些說明很到位。我的意思是,最終我們必須做一個決定。當我們在供應鏈的營運環境中遇到這些挑戰時,你可以對客戶道歉、什麼都不做;或者你可以採取行動,盡力持續讓客戶滿意。而有時候,選擇採取行動、盡最大努力去履行他們的承諾,以及我們對交付時程的期望,成本會變得相當高。

  • When we have to -- when we have key components that are sourced locally and they fall through, we have to then use their international sources to get the components in. And to double that, you expedite the freight at the same time. So there are many instances where we had some suppliers prior to the LTAs that were not able to meet their commitments locally, we had to go with international shipments with expedited freight in order for us to keep the delivery schedules.

    當我們——當一些原本在地採購的關鍵零組件供應失靈時,我們就必須改用其國際來源把零組件運進來。而且更麻煩的是,你同時還得加急運輸。所以有很多例子是,在簽訂長期協議(LTA)之前,有些供應商無法在本地履行承諾;為了讓我們維持交付時程,我們不得不改用國際出貨並加急運費。

  • David Tarantino - Equity Analyst

    David Tarantino - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then maybe could you give us some color on the pricing discussions in data center? My understanding is there were pass-throughs for inflation, but securing supply at higher cost is somewhat unique. So what does the pricing look like in the LTAs from your suppliers? Where are the discussions at this point with your customers on price? And how much more work is there to do on these discussions?

    好的,很好。那麼也許你能談談資料中心的定價討論?我的理解是,通膨有一些轉嫁(pass-through),但以更高成本去確保供應在某種程度上比較特殊。所以你們與供應商簽的長期協議(LTA)裡,定價大概是什麼樣子?目前與客戶在價格上的討論進展到哪裡?這些討論還有多少工作要做?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I think the important piece here, David, is that it's not fixed. We have the -- we've got the agreement with our customers that pricing is variable, especially when we have challenges in the metals inflation as well as tariffs, expedited freight costs, those kind of things, there's a willingness to have a conversation and there's a willingness to help us in terms of making sure we can meet their delivery commitments and help share the costs in order to do that. That is a very -- those are very active conversations that take place on a sometimes weekly basis with some of our biggest customers.

    David,我認為這裡的重點是,價格不是固定的。我們——我們與客戶的協議是價格具有可變性,特別是在金屬通膨以及關稅、加急運費成本等這類挑戰出現時,雙方願意坐下來談,也願意在確保我們能履行他們的交付承諾方面提供協助,並分攤為達成這件事所需的成本。這些都是非常——非常活躍的對話;對我們一些最大的客戶而言,有時甚至是每週都在進行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neal Burk, UBS.

    Neal Burk,UBS。

  • Neal Burk - Analyst

    Neal Burk - Analyst

  • On the commercial HVAC guide, you guys have just done two quarters of pretty good double-digit organic sales growth. But I think the guide assumes a step down in the back half. Can you elaborate on that? Do comps get harder? Or is there some timing? Or is this just conservatism?

    關於商用 HVAC 的指引,你們已經連續兩季做到相當不錯的兩位數有機銷售成長。但我認為指引假設下半年會放緩。你能否多談談原因?是比較基期變得更難?還是有一些時點因素?或者這只是保守估計?

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. With the heating season, one thing that was positive here and helped with HVAC in the really strong Q2, we've had a really good preseason for heating, preseason orders. So we are being a little bit cautious that for those that have been with us a while, we always -- you don't know what unfortunately, weather is going to be. So there's one element of we try to go in with a relatively conservative heat outlook.

    是的。隨著供暖季到來,有一件正面的事情、也幫助 HVAC 在非常強勁的第二季表現:我們的供暖季前(preseason)訂單非常好。所以我們會稍微謹慎一些;對於跟我們一段時間的人都知道,我們一向——不幸的是,你無法知道天氣會怎麼樣。因此其中一個因素是,我們會以相對保守的供暖展望來規劃。

  • Secondly, the -- that new leadership team is really going through a heavy lift on 80/20, and we have planned exits, cost reductions and attrition, much like, again, people have been with Modine for a while, we'll see because also implied in there is a pretty healthy second half margin lift.

    第二,新領導團隊正在大力推動 80/20,我們也規劃了退出(exits)、成本削減與人員自然流失(attrition);同樣地,跟 Modine 一段時間的人會看到,因為其中也隱含了下半年相當可觀的毛利率提升。

  • Again, from the first half, I think we'd probably be looking at, at least 300, 400 basis point plus improvement in the second half of the year, and part of that is from the 80/20 activities, along with price recovery on material costs because there was also a little bit of that in the HVAC segment for Q2.

    同樣地,相較於上半年,我想我們下半年至少會看到 300 到 400 個基點以上的改善;其中一部分來自 80/20 的活動,另外也包括材料成本的價格回收(price recovery),因為在第二季的 HVAC 事業部也有一點這方面的影響。

  • Neal Burk - Analyst

    Neal Burk - Analyst

  • Yes. I want to follow up on that. I think I think last quarter, you were pointing to kind of maybe 200 basis points of margin expansion climate for the year. And so can you kind of update where we are now relative to that? I mean you kind of guided back half, but was 2Q how much worse than you expected? And what's the sort of ramp in the back half? How do you kind of break that out between cost recovery and price?

    是的。我想就此再追問一下。我記得上季你們提到,今年可能有大約200個基點的利潤率擴張空間。那你能否更新一下目前相對於那個目標的進度?我的意思是,你們有提到下半年,但2Q比你們原先預期差了多少?以及下半年的爬坡(改善)幅度大概是怎樣?你們如何在成本回收與價格之間做拆分?

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I see the full year being up, call it, 100 basis points or so. When we look to the back half of the year, I expect a 50 to 100 basis points year-over-year improvement in Q3 and then another big lift in Q4. And again, where -- in as far as Q2, we were a little bit light, and that was also majority was around material costs and mostly raw material costs on the coils business, really strong order intake, in fact, a lot of growth driven by data center business, but that's a lag in timing recovery of like copper, aluminum and steel.

    是的。我認為全年會上升,大概約100個基點左右。當我們看下半年時,我預期Q3的年對年改善約50到100個基點,然後Q4會再有一次明顯的提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Drab, William Blair.

    Brian Drab,William Blair。

  • Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

    Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

  • Can you touch on that opportunity that you have with the data center customer within the coils business, the timing of that and how significant could that be for that segment?

    你能談談你們在線圈業務中,與資料中心客戶之間的那個機會嗎?其時程如何?對該事業部門而言可能有多大影響?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, that is definitely significant. We're going to have to do a lot of 80/20 work there to ensure that we're using the appropriate capacity for this key customer. Definitely is significant in terms of the revenue growth. And it would be helping them supply -- helping them secure supply so that they can continue to navigate the shortages in the supply chain. We've talked about fans as a shortage in the supply chain. You've heard lots of companies talk about that. We've talked about things like evaporators and compressors.

    是的,那確實非常重要。我們需要在那裡做大量的80/20分析與改善工作,以確保我們為這個關鍵客戶使用的是適當的產能。就營收成長而言,確實很顯著。而且這也會幫助他們確保供應,讓他們能持續因應供應鏈短缺。我們談過風扇是供應鏈中的短缺項目。你也聽過很多公司談到這點。我們也談過像蒸發器與壓縮機這類零組件。

  • Coils is now bumping up as one of the one of the areas where they're seeing a severe shortage in the industry and the fact that we're the largest independent coil producer in the world is in our advantage. So we have a lot of opportunity there, and we can partner with them, and we are partnering with them. That will be a significant mix shift in that business going forward.

    現在線圈也開始成為他們看到產業中嚴重短缺的領域之一;而我們是全球最大的獨立線圈製造商,這對我們是有利的。因此我們有很多機會可以在那裡與他們合作,而我們也正在與他們合作。這將在未來使該業務的產品組合出現顯著的結構性轉變。

  • Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

    Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

  • Can you say what the specific application is for the coil? Like what type of system or units would be --slide

    你能說明線圈的具體應用是什麼嗎?例如會用在什麼類型的系統或機組——slide

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Liquid cooling, rig or heat exchangers, liquid cooling for direct ship.

    液冷,用於機架或熱交換器;用於直送(direct ship)的液冷。

  • Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

    Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then you just mentioned the shortages of fans and other components. Can you sum up at this point, like how many suppliers are an issue? How many parts are an issue? This has been a very acute problem throughout the last 6 to 12 months. But is it still an acute problem? Or has it kind of broadened?

    好的,了解。另外你剛提到風扇與其他零組件的短缺。你能否在目前這個時間點總結一下:大概有多少供應商是問題來源?有多少零件是問題?過去6到12個月這一直是非常嚴重的問題。但現在仍然同樣嚴重嗎?還是問題範圍有擴大?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well it hasn't broadened. It was for the -- you have limited supply with four key components of those 4 key components fans. We have now entered into an LTA with one of the fan suppliers. We've also entered into long-term purchase agreements a blanket PO is out 12 months for a second. So we have comfort now that we will be able to get the requested supply that we didn't have that comfort 90 days ago. With the evaporator suppliers, we've entered into an LTA.

    嗯,並沒有擴大。主要是——在四個關鍵零組件上供應有限,其中之一就是風扇。我們現在已與其中一家風扇供應商簽訂LTA(長期協議)。我們也與第二家簽了長期採購協議,並已發出涵蓋未來12個月的整體(blanket)採購訂單。因此我們現在有把握能取得所要求的供應量;而在90天前我們還沒有這樣的把握。至於蒸發器供應商,我們也已簽訂LTA。

  • With the compressor supplier, we're in negotiations, and I would expect to close an LTA on that relatively soon. It's just a matter of how much more capacity that they need to add and how many more plants they need to add to support us. So what we see now in coils, obviously, the last, and we're vertically integrated with coils. So that's a nonissue for us. It is for others.

    至於壓縮機供應商,我們正在談判中,我預期相對很快就能完成LTA。這主要取決於他們需要新增多少產能,以及需要新增多少工廠來支援我們。所以我們現在在線圈方面看到的情況是——顯然,線圈是最後一項;而我們在線圈上是垂直整合的。因此對我們而言不是問題。但對其他人而言是問題。

  • So with these LTAs, we have targeted the ones that were critical a quarter back that had caused a lot of disruption. And as we enter into these LTAs and we enter into these agreements with our suppliers, this is beginning to stabilize around the strategic supply chain.

    因此透過這些LTA,我們已鎖定那些在上一季仍屬關鍵、且曾造成大量干擾的項目。隨著我們簽訂這些LTA並與供應商達成協議,策略性供應鏈正開始趨於穩定。

  • Now you still have the other suppliers that need to deliver. Those are more acute in terms of an issue where you kind of work through it, maybe it delays you a week or maybe it delays you a couple of weeks, but you can -- you have an alternative source that you can ramp up quicker, much quicker because they don't have the same level of technology. So that for us is a different challenge. But the first and the most important thing to do is to lock up your suppliers that are strategic and then we'll work on the ones that are more of an acute issue throughout the weeks and months.

    當然,你仍有其他供應商需要按時交付。那些問題更偏向短期急性:你可能需要去解決它,可能讓你延遲一週或延遲兩週,但你可以——你有替代來源可以更快拉升,快得多,因為它們不需要同等程度的技術。所以對我們而言那是不同的挑戰。但第一件、也是最重要的事,是先把策略性供應商鎖定下來;接著我們再在接下來的幾週與幾個月中,處理那些較偏短期急性的問題。

  • Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

    Brian Drab - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then if I could just ask, now that you have those LTAs in place, you have an understanding of the pricing that goes along with those. And I guess this is asking you to maybe comment on a time period further out than you want to. But in the past, we've talked about the potential for EBITDA margin for the data center business to be well north of 20% once you get to some sort of steadier state. Is that still where you're trying to drive the business towards? What is the goal for EBITDA margin for this business?

    好的。那我再問一個:既然你們已經把這些LTA到位,也就能掌握與之相關的定價。我想這可能是在請你評論一個比你願意談的更長期的時間範圍。但過去我們談過,一旦進入較穩定的狀態,資料中心業務的EBITDA利潤率有機會遠高於20%。這仍然是你們希望推動業務達到的方向嗎?這項業務的EBITDA利潤率目標是什麼?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, that's absolutely what we're trying to drive the business for. But remember, we are in the middle of a ramp. We are ramping products. We're ramping new launches. We're ramping chiller lines. We're ramping air handling units. We're adding $100-plus million of capacity and expanding in a way that we've never done in the past.

    是的,這絕對是我們想推動業務達成的方向。但請記得,我們正處於產能爬坡的中段。我們正在爬坡產品。我們正在爬坡新產品上市。我們正在爬坡冷水機(chiller)產線。我們正在爬坡空氣處理機組(air handling units)。我們正在新增超過1億美元的產能,並以過去從未有過的方式擴張。

  • So there's going to be challenges with the ramp in terms of margin compression with all the things that we talked about. We're what, 13 lines into the 20 lines for chillers now complete. You go back a quarter ago, it was half of that. So by the end of the calendar year, we'll have the capacity in place and you'll start to work through these inefficiencies. But there's often margin compression in the middle of the ramp, and that's exactly what we're in to keep up with the enormous demand that we have for the most efficient product in the industry.

    因此在爬坡過程中,會因為我們談到的各種因素而面臨利潤率被壓縮的挑戰。我們目前冷水機的20條產線,已完成其中13條。如果回到上一季,完成的只有那個數量的一半。所以到今年曆年年底,我們會把產能建置到位,並開始消化這些效率不彰的問題。但在爬坡的中段常常會出現利潤率壓縮,而我們現在正是處於這個階段,目的是跟上我們對業界最高效率產品所面臨的龐大需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Wojs, Baird.

    Tim Wojs,Baird。

  • Timothy Wojs - Analyst

    Timothy Wojs - Analyst

  • Maybe just on the data center guidance, the midpoint going from 70% growth at the midpoint to what's 85% now. How much of that is volume versus price?

    想請教一下資料中心的指引,中位數從原本中位數約 70% 的成長,提升到現在約 85%。其中有多少是出貨量帶動、多少是價格帶動?

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • In terms of majority of that is volume driven, Tim.

    Tim,就大部分而言,主要是由出貨量所驅動。

  • Timothy Wojs - Analyst

    Timothy Wojs - Analyst

  • Okay. And so I guess when you're thinking about kind of the commercial actions that you need to do to kind of recover the higher component costs, I mean, how much of that have you already went and gotten versus how much you still need to get? And I guess, what is embedded in the fourth quarter? Because I mean, there's still a pretty sizable ramp from Q3 to Q4. And I'm just trying to kind of understand your ultimate visibility to that at this point.

    了解。那我想,當你們在思考為了回收較高的零組件成本而需要採取的商業動作時,我的意思是,你們已經爭取到多少、還有多少需要再爭取?另外,第四季裡面隱含了什麼?因為從第三季到第四季仍有相當可觀的拉升。我只是想理解在目前這個時間點,你們對此最終的能見度到什麼程度。

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Let me try to answer it the best way I can. I would say based on -- so two things we have happening at any one time. We have our two major long-term agreements with a couple of hyperscalers, one we announced last year. That had well-defined pricing mechanisms in there. And as Neil said, they're open to it. And in some cases, we didn't -- both sides didn't contemplate some of the things we saw coming. So we're working through those now, and there's a lag effect on getting those approved then into the system, the invoice and so forth.

    我盡我所能用最好的方式回答。我會說,基於——我們在任何時點同時有兩件事在進行。我們與幾家超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)有兩份主要的長期協議,其中一份是我們去年宣布的。那裡面有明確定義的定價機制。如 Neil 所說,他們對此是開放的。而在某些情況下,我們——雙方都沒有預想到我們後來看到的一些狀況。所以我們現在正在處理這些問題,而從核准到進入系統、開立發票等等,會有一個時間落差的效應。

  • The second element is every single new discussion we're having commercially, Neil and I are having the teams ensure all of this is upfront and such that incremental programs are addressing even like if it's 6 months between award and completion, we want to be sure that if there's inflation between us getting award for a new site that we can adjust that price before we ship the product.

    第二個要素是,我們在商務上進行的每一個新討論,Neil 和我都要求團隊確保這些都在一開始就講清楚,讓新增的專案能夠涵蓋——即使從得標到完工之間有 6 個月,我們也要確保如果在我們拿到新站點的訂單到出貨產品之間發生通膨,我們可以在出貨前調整價格。

  • And from what I can kind of see just on pricing we've agreed to and passing through, I see at least like a 250 basis point lift for us on discussions we've already had with customers on current activities. So I hope that gives you a little bit of transparency. And then obviously, new programs, new POs where our full intent is to get those priced upfront when those ship.

    就我目前看到、僅就我們已同意的定價與轉嫁而言,我看到至少大約 250 個基點的提升,來自我們已經就現有活動與客戶進行過的討論。希望這能讓你更透明一些。然後很明顯地,對於新專案、新的採購單(PO),我們的完整意圖是在出貨時就把價格事先談定。

  • Timothy Wojs - Analyst

    Timothy Wojs - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. Yes, that's helpful. So when you think about you're not necessarily guiding to put words in your mouth, but what's implied is probably a 450, 500 basis point improvement Q3 to Q4 in EBITDA margins. Part of that is price that you do kind of have visibility to and there's a lag to it. And then parts of it will also just be kind of volume growth and better efficiencies within the existing lines. It's really like those two main factors.

    好的。好的。是的,這很有幫助。所以當你在思考——我不是要替你下指引、把話塞到你嘴裡——但隱含的可能是 EBITDA 利潤率從第三季到第四季改善約 450、500 個基點。其中一部分是你們對價格有一定能見度、但會有落後反映。另外一部分也會是出貨量成長,以及既有產線內更好的效率。基本上就是這兩個主要因素。

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, it's a good summary. I mentioned a few minutes ago, I see in Q2 a 375 basis point material headwind. And then I mentioned to you that what I can see in our system is at least, call it, 250 basis points catch-up right now that we've gone and then you have new programs. So the other thing, right, we have to get in front of and it's a little bit of what we're talking about is then make sure we're factoring in what could come that we're not aware of yet as far as asks from the supply base.

    是的,總結得很好。我幾分鐘前提到,我在第二季看到約 375 個基點的原物料逆風。然後我也跟你說,我在系統裡看到至少——就稱之為——目前我們已經爭取到約 250 個基點的追補,接著還有新專案。所以另外一件事,對吧,我們必須提前因應、而這也有點呼應我們在談的內容,就是要確保我們把供應端可能提出、但我們尚未察覺的要求(例如加價)也納入考量。

  • And I think -- I'll let Neil comment. I think we're well in front of that. I'm not raising that because it's a message we're trying to send is that if we have all this catch-up, then we have to make sure we don't get surprised with any incremental price increases from our supply base. I think where we're at today, I feel good about. Neil, I don't know if --

    我想——我讓 Neil 補充。我認為我們在這方面已經走在前面。我提這點不是因為我們想傳達什麼訊息,而是說,如果我們有這些追補,那我們就必須確保不會被供應端任何額外的漲價所突襲。以我們今天的位置,我感覺良好。Neil,我不知道你是否——

  • Timothy Wojs - Analyst

    Timothy Wojs - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then I guess when you think about -- just -- I guess, when you're thinking about the supply chain itself, -- is there a way to just to give us some color on just how supply has tracked for you over the last few months? I mean, are you -- I guess, for Q3, are you kind of operating at that margin level today in terms of the data center business? And are you seeing like weekly or monthly sequential improvement in supply? Or is it still pretty kind of whack-a-mole?

    好的。好的。那我想再問——就——我想,當你們在思考供應鏈本身時——能否給我們一些補充說明,談談過去幾個月你們的供應狀況走勢?我的意思是,第三季就資料中心業務而言,你們目前的運作是否已在那個利潤率水準?而且你們是否看到供應在每週或每月呈現逐步改善?還是仍然相當像打地鼠一樣、到處救火?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We have seen improvement. September was the first time that we hit 100% on-time delivery from each of our chiller plants. October was the second time we hit 100% on-time delivery for our chiller plants. And that's because of some of the stability we've got back in the supply chain.

    我們確實看到改善。9 月是我們第一次在每一座冷水機(chiller)工廠都達到 100% 準時交付。10 月是我們第二次在冷水機工廠達到 100% 準時交付。這是因為我們在供應鏈中重新取得了一些穩定性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Van Sinderen, B. Riley.

    Jeff Van Sinderen,B. Riley。

  • Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

    Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

  • You sort of just answered part of my question. I was going to ask you, though, have you seen any customers pull forward demand with more urgency considering the political backdrop?

    你其實已經回答了我問題的一部分。不過我原本想問的是,考量政治背景,你們是否看到有客戶更急迫地把需求提前?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We have seen a lot of that. I don't know if it's completely driven by the political backdrop or if it's more driven by just the breakneck speed that we see around the competitive forces with AI and high-performance compute. There is a scramble for building out as much capacity as fast as possible and outpacing their competitors, and you're starting to see a lot of interesting new technologies as well as requests for us to be able to pull some of these schedules in, whether part of that is politically driven or if it's just the pure competition in order to add the capacity faster.

    我們確實看到很多這種情況。我不確定是否完全由政治背景所驅動,或更多是由我們在 AI 與高效能運算周邊看到的那種極快速度、競爭力量所驅動。大家都在搶著以最快速度建置更多產能、超越競爭對手;你也開始看到很多有趣的新技術,以及要求我們能把某些時程往前拉。不論其中一部分是否由政治因素驅動,或只是純粹為了競爭而更快增加產能。

  • Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

    Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

  • Okay. And so you said you're adding 100% on-time delivery for chillers now. If you could produce more data center product right now, do you have other data center customers or potential customers that want that product?

    好的。那你說你們現在冷水機已經能做到 100% 準時交付。如果你們現在能生產更多資料中心產品,是否有其他資料中心客戶或潛在客戶想要那些產品?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. It's -- we have more demand, more requests even with the amount of capacity that we're putting in place with air handling units, with CDUs, with chillers that V-dry air coolers, adiabatic coolers, all these products that go into the data center space far exceeds our capacity.

    是的。就是——即使我們正在擴充空氣處理機組(air handling units)、CDU、冷水機、V-dry 乾式冷卻器、絕熱冷卻器(adiabatic coolers)等所有這些用於資料中心領域的產品產能,需求與各種要求仍遠遠超過我們的產能。

  • Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

    Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

  • So you really -- at this point, you're having to sort of turn away some potential customers or you're having to -- I don't want to say put on allocation, but it's almost as if you're sort of allocating to some degree.

    所以你們其實——在這個時間點,你們必須某種程度上婉拒一些潛在客戶,或你們必須——我不想說是配給(allocation),但幾乎就像你們在某種程度上在做分配。

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We are trying to navigate these relationships. We leverage 80/20 with how we identify customers that we consider are what we call perfect prospects internally because of their cash position, because of their ability to win because of their technology, because of their strategy. It aligns with our technology road map. When there's a high degree of fit of partnership, we have preference for those customers. It would just be a longer lead time for the others.

    我們正在努力拿捏並處理這些關係。我們運用 80/20 原則來辨識我們認為、內部稱之為「完美潛在客戶」的客戶,原因包括他們的現金部位、他們的勝出能力、他們的技術、他們的策略。這些都與我們的技術路線圖一致。當合作契合度很高時,我們會優先偏好那些客戶。至於其他客戶,就只是交期會更長。

  • Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

    Jeff Van Sinderen - Analyst

  • Understood. Sounds like a good way to operate. And then just given the balance sheet considerations of some of the smaller data center players, how are you thinking about mitigating that smaller player customer balance sheet risk, if you will?

    了解。聽起來是個不錯的營運方式。另外,考量到一些較小型資料中心業者的資產負債表狀況,你們如何思考降低(如果可以這麼說)這些較小型客戶的資產負債表風險?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We typically don't engage. We have enough -- yes, we have enough demand from our top 10 that we don't have to engage.

    我們通常不會參與。我們有足夠的需求——是的,我們前十大客戶的需求已經足夠,所以我們不需要去參與。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manish Somaiya, Cantor.

    Manish Somaiya,Cantor。

  • Manish Somaiya - Analyst

    Manish Somaiya - Analyst

  • My first question is on the inventory buildup and the working capital ramp that you've had in anticipation of product deliveries. And my question specifically is if customer site schedules move to the right, how fungible is that inventory across customers and projects?

    我的第一個問題是關於你們為了因應產品交付而提前備貨、以及營運資金的拉升。我想具體問的是,如果客戶端的工地時程往後延,你們的庫存能在不同客戶與不同專案之間互通/通用的程度有多高?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So typically, we build a product that is anywhere between 70% to 80% that's scalable. The last 30 -- 20% to 30% is more customizable. So the majority of the product would be able to be shared with other projects and other demand.

    一般來說,我們會先把產品做到約70%到80%,而且是可擴充的。最後的30——也就是20%到30%——會比較客製化。因此,大部分的產品是可以在其他專案與其他需求之間共用的。

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Most of the inventory is actually in raw state, and we try to time shipments and even negotiations of when our products are done that they take possession of them. So most of it is raw and as Neil said, and then you can reuse that for various products.

    是的。大部分庫存其實都還是原料狀態,我們會盡量把出貨時點、甚至在協商產品完成時間時,配合到讓客戶在那個時間點接收並取得所有權。所以多數是原料狀態,如Neil所說,之後可以用在各種不同產品上。

  • Manish Somaiya - Analyst

    Manish Somaiya - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then on '27 CapEx, I think you have guided to $150 million to $200 million with the 20 chiller lines targeted by year-end. How should we think about '28? I mean, does that kind of normalize from a capital intensity perspective? And I guess, looking ahead to cash conversion, if you can just help us with that as well.

    好的,這很有幫助。接著關於2027年的資本支出(CapEx),我記得你們指引是1.5億到2億美元,目標是在年底前達到20條冷卻機(chiller)產線。那我們該如何看待2028年?我的意思是,從資本密集度的角度來看,是否會回到比較正常的水準?另外,展望現金轉換(cash conversion),也請你們幫我們說明一下。

  • Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Michael Lucareli - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So a few items. I'm going to push out, as Neil did to our IR Day only when we're looking into '28. But directionally, we will see a more normalized level of capital spending. It will -- I expect it will decline. But as the size of the company kind of stay at a -- for sure, we'll be over $100 million a year, I'd expect just for preventative maintenance and to support future growth.

    好的,有幾點。關於2028年,我會像Neil一樣,把更深入的內容留到我們的投資人日(IR Day)再談。但就方向而言,我們會看到資本支出回到較正常的水準。我預期會下降。不過,隨著公司規模維持在——可以確定的是,我們每年會超過1億美元,我預期這主要用於預防性維護以及支援未來成長。

  • And the conversion, we expect will fully improve as we go forward from a free cash. While I'd like to see -- 2 things I'd say, while I'd love to see bigger free cash flow conversion this year, I think it's a really big positive that we're generating 90% data center growth and the company is fully funding from operating cash flows, our growth, which is great.

    至於轉換率,我們預期往後自由現金流(free cash)方面會全面改善。我想我會說兩點:雖然我也希望今年能看到更高的自由現金流轉換率,但我們能做到資料中心業務成長90%,而且公司的成長完全由營運現金流來支應,這是非常正面的。

  • But also just this year is a little bit of a unique situation when you look at our full year and even year-to-date with regards to the spin-off of the company. We mentioned that we'll probably have somewhere between $30 million, $50 million this year of cash separation costs plus some capital to separate the company. And then we had talked about cash taxes, both because of the spin-off and frankly, the LTA where we got a large upfront payment, we have about $70 million plus of higher-than-normal cash taxes. So just in this year, I think we've got $100 million of non-normal operating cash items that I wouldn't expect to continue into the future.

    另外,今年在看我們全年、甚至年初至今的表現時,因為公司分拆(spin-off)的關係,確實有點特殊。我們提到今年可能會有約3,000萬到5,000萬美元的現金分拆成本,另外還有一些用於分拆的資本支出。然後我們也談到現金稅(cash taxes),一方面因為分拆,坦白說也因為LTA我們收到一筆較大的預付款,因此我們有約7,000萬美元以上、較正常水準更高的現金稅。所以就今年而言,我認為大概有1億美元屬於非正常的營運現金項目,我不預期未來會持續。

  • Manish Somaiya - Analyst

    Manish Somaiya - Analyst

  • And then just lastly, we're sort of in the middle of the third quarter for you guys. And as I process the discussion we've had for the past 1 hour pertaining to the targets for '27 with margins, et cetera. From your perspective, Neil, what are some of the biggest risks that you are focused on that we should at least be aware of?

    最後一個問題,你們現在大概在第三季的中段。在我消化過去一小時我們針對2027年目標(包含毛利率等)的討論後,從你的角度來看,Neil,你目前最關注、也是我們至少應該留意的一些最大風險是什麼?

  • Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Neil Brinker - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We have to hit the schedules for our customers. The demand that we have is critical for them to be successful. And marrying the supply chain ramp with the factory ramp with the labor ramps has been a delicate balance over the last couple of quarters. We're getting better at it, no doubt about that. And just making sure that we can continue to meet our customers' delivery schedules is critical for the future of our success because they're -- the projects and programs that we have with them extend well out into 2030, so 2031.

    我們必須達成客戶的時程。我們所面對的需求對他們的成功至關重要。而在過去幾個季度,把供應鏈的擴產、工廠的擴產以及人力的擴增三者協調在一起,一直是個微妙的平衡。毫無疑問,我們正在變得更好。確保我們能持續符合客戶的交付時程,對我們未來的成功至關重要,因為——我們與他們的專案與計畫會一路延伸到2030年,甚至2031年。

  • So we want to make sure that we're meeting the commitments early, even if it's more costly for us to do it because we see this as strategic customers with long-term potential.

    因此,我們希望確保能提早達成承諾,即使這樣做對我們而言成本更高,因為我們把這些視為具有長期潛力的策略性客戶。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Kathy Powers for closing comments.

    目前沒有其他問題。我想把時間交回給Kathy Powers做結語。

  • Kathleen Powers - Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations

    Kathleen Powers - Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations

  • Thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. The replay of the call will be available through our website in a couple of hours. We're looking forward to seeing many of you on November 18 in Chicago. Have a great day. Thanks. Bye.

    感謝各位今天早上參與。本次電話會議的重播將在幾個小時後於我們的網站提供。我們期待在11月18日於芝加哥與各位中的許多人見面。祝各位有美好的一天。謝謝。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。感謝您的參與。