Modine Manufacturing Co (MOD) 2013 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Modine Manufacturing Company Q4 2013 earnings call presentation. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time.

(Operator Instructions)

As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host, Ms. Kathy Powers, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Ms. Powers, please begin.

Thank you. Thank you for joining us today for Modine's fourth-quarter fiscal 2013 earnings call. With me today are Modine's President and CEO, Tom Burke, and Mick Lucareli, Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer. We will be using slides with today's presentation. Those links are available through both the webcast link as well as a PDF file posted on the Investor Relations section of our Company's website, Modine.com. Also, should you need to exit the call prior to its conclusion, a replay will be available through our website beginning approximately two hours after the call concludes.

On Slide 2 is an outline for today’s call. Tom and Mick will provide comments on our fourth-quarter results and provide revenue and earnings guidance for fiscal '14. At the end of the call, there will be a question-and-answer session. On slide 3 is our notice regarding forward-looking statements. I want to remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements as outlined in today's earnings release, as well as in our Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Tom Burke.

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. Given the current market conditions, I am pleased with Modine's fourth-quarter earnings, resulting in full-year earnings per share before impairment and restructuring charges of $0.40. The fourth quarter was our strongest quarter of the year, both in revenue and earnings, despite weak end market demand in North America, Europe and Asia. Fortunately, we realized an increase in sales and margin in our South America segment excluding currency and we also had a solid quarter at our Commercial Products Group led by heating sales in North America. Our revenues were down 7.5% in the fourth quarter, compared to the prior year and down 12.8% for the full year, largely driven by weak end markets and customer delays in program launches.

Our outlook for fiscal 2014 is consistent with the market assumptions provided last quarter, with continuing weakness in North American and European heavy commercial vehicle markets and improvement expected later in calendar 2013. Please note that our financial results for the quarter include $10.5 million of impairment and restructuring charges, primarily related to severance costs in Europe in conjunction with our European restructuring program. Excluding these charges, we reported earnings per share of $0.18, down $0.16 from a very strong fourth quarter last year. Mick will provide some more details on our financial results in a few minutes, but first I would like to comment briefly on our segment results and outlook.

Turning to page 5, revenue was down in the North America segment, primarily driven by lower sales to the commercial vehicle market, and additional weakness in the off-highway market. Looking forward, we expect mixed market conditions in North America in fiscal '14 with heavy truck production remaining down but improving later in the year. We also expect medium truck and off-highway production to improve during -- versus fiscal '13. We have made significant improvements in North America over the past several years, preparing this segment for future growth based on the improved manufacturing footprint and cost structure.

Please turn to page 6. Our Europe segment's year-over-year sales were down in the fourth quarter, but the decline was less than in prior quarters this year. The commercial vehicle market remains weak but we expect our truck share to improve with increasing sales of Euro VI compliant vehicles required to meet the January 2014 deadline. As I mentioned last quarter, the strong launch volumes anticipated for our Euro VI truck programs did not materialize this year, due to the emissions law change which is impacting mix along with the weak market conditions. We will continue ramping up these programs in fiscal '14 but at a slower pace than we anticipated in our previous projections. These launches have not been without the challenges involved with introducing major new manufacturing processes. We have made the necessary refinements and fully expect margins to improve as volumes increase with Euro VI truck sales. We believe that Euro V trucks will continue to be sold through the end of calendar '13. This, coupled with the planned of wind down of the BMW module business, has continued to negatively impact the financial results in the region and our forecast for fiscal '14. Excluding the $6 million impact of the wind down of the BMW business during the quarter, sales in the region were virtually flat as compared to the prior year. Our fiscal '14 outlook for the segment includes weak automotive and commercial vehicle markets, a flat construction market and modest growth in agriculture equipment.

Turning to page 7. We continue to make good progress in our European restructuring program and will see positive results of these efforts in the current fiscal year. We recorded $9.7 million of restructuring charges in this segment during the quarter, most of which related to our manufacturing-related severance cost as we worked to rightsize our cost base in our German manufacturing facilities. We made several significant accomplishments this year toward our goal of improving this segment return on average capital to 15%. We have reduced headcount in our administrative offices and have seen the benefit of lower SG&A in the region. We have consolidated our offices into underutilized space in our technical center and are marketing our now available space to interested parties. We have evaluated our technical and testing facilities and are moving toward a divestiture of underperforming assets. And of course, we have continued discussions with the Works Council to work through the planned wind down of manufacturing operations related to the non-strategic automotive module business. We continue to evaluate our manufacturing footprint to ensure cost competitiveness while providing superior products and services to our customers. At this point, we are well on our way to meet the objectives that we presented last year. In summary, they are -- gross margins in the 15% to 17% range, annual SG&A savings in the range of EUR5 million to EUR7 million, and operating margins of 8% to 10%, which leads to a return on average capital employed of 15% for this segment.

Moving to South America on page 8. Excluding currency impacts, sales were up 11%. We have seen significant recovery in the commercial vehicle market, resulting in easier year-over-year comparisons. We are also launching a new power generation cooling program, which is an exciting step in our diversification efforts. We anticipate the strong year-over-year comparisons to continue for fiscal '14, both in sales and gross margin. Our outlook for the current fiscal year shows growth in commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment and vehicular aftermarket. Brazil continues to have the strongest market outlook of all of our segments.

Please turn to page 9. Our Asia segment continued to show revenue decreases as compared to the prior year, with fourth-quarter sales down 24%, but a relatively small amount in dollar terms. That being said, we believe the rate of decline is stabilizing and we are beginning to see some strengthening in our markets and our order book. Now that we have lowered our breakeven point in the region, our strategic focus has shifted to developing new business opportunities, including organic and inorganic investments. We're diversifying our business model in this region, which is reducing our dependence on industrial excavator sales and adding volume to our current fixed cost structure.

Turning to page 10. Sales in our Commercial Products segment were up 1% in the quarter. In North America, or business benefited from a more robust heating season than the year before. Although UK chiller sales were down during the quarter, we are seeing stronger order intake and expect this to lead to a strong start to our fiscal year for our Airedale business in the UK. Several fourth quarter orders were delayed due to customer readiness issues, pushing back delivery dates which will now flow in through into our first quarter of '14. We continue to have a positive outlook for this segment with growth expectations for fiscal '14 of 2% to 4% in North America and 3% to 6% in UK data center cooling. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Mick for a full overview of our financial performance and guidance.

Thanks, Tom. Good morning to everyone. Please turn to slide 11 and I'll review the income statement. As Tom mentioned, we had our strongest quarter of the year in terms of revenue and underlying earnings. Given the end market conditions, revenue declined in our North America, Europe and Asia business segments. In addition, foreign exchange had a slight negative impact on year-over-year comparability. Excluding foreign currency, sales decreased $25 million, or 6%. Modine's automotive sales were down 5%, including the planned wind down of the BMW module business. Our commercial vehicle and off-highway sales were down 9% and 4%, respectively.

Throughout the year, we have been focused on cost control. You can see SG&A decreased by $7 million year-over-year, representing a 14.5% decrease. For the full year, SG&A was down $20 million. During the quarter, we recorded $10 million in impairment and restructuring charges, which I'll cover in more detail on the next slide. The impact on EPS was $0.22 and excluding impairment and restructuring charges, EPS was $0.18 in the quarter and $0.40 for the full year, in line with our expectations. There were also some unusual items in the tax line I want to point out. During the quarter, we recognized a tax valuation allowance in our Asia segment, negatively impacting earnings by $2 million, or approximately $0.04 per share. Last year, we had a tax benefit of $4.4 million in the tax line, which related to a Hungarian tax credit.

Turning to slide 12, we have the summary table that highlights our main restructuring costs incurred so far this year. As we said during the quarter, we recorded $9.7 million of cash restructuring charges and $800,000 of non-cash impairments. The cash restructuring charges related to the European equipment transfers and headcount reductions and the $800,000 of non-cash impairments related to assets held for sale in our North America segment. This represents the further write-down of two facilities that were closed during our North American manufacturing realignment.

Moving on to slide 13, let's take a quick look at the balance sheet and cash flows. As anticipated, free cash flow was negative in the quarter, driven primarily by higher capital spending. We are pleased that despite the volume challenges, our fiscal 2013 free cash flow was nearly breakeven, which is an $18 million improvement over the prior year. This was driven by an improvement in operating cash flow and lower capital spending. Over the last 12 months, we've spent $50 million in CapEx, which is down significantly from $64 million last year. We remain comfortable with the balance sheet, with net debt-to-capital at 34% and $24 million of cash.

Moving on to slide 14 in the North American business segment, fourth quarter sales were down 11%, as Tom mentioned. As many of you know, commercial vehicle markets were soft in the quarter. Class 8 production declined 29% and Class 5 to 7 production declined 7% year-over-year. Modine's commercial vehicle sales declined about 15% while off-highway sales declined about 10%, primarily in the construction market. Despite the volume decline, gross margin held up relatively well and for the segment on a full-year basis, margins were down 50 basis points on a 6% drop in sales, benefiting from lower material cost and an improved sales mix. Also, SG&A declined by $600,000 on a year-over-year basis. Excluding $800,000 of the asset impairments, operating income declined $4.4 million for North America.

Moving on to slide 15, we have our European business segment. Fourth-quarter sales were down 4%, or $6 million from the prior year. This was primarily due to the planned $6 million decline in our BMW business. With regards to the markets, the commercial vehicle was down 14%, auto was down 2% and off-highway was approximately flat. As Tom said, we experienced delays in launch activity as our customers adjusted production in response to the declining end market demand and a lack of incentives to pull forward Euro VI production. Our gross margin in Europe has been temporarily impacted from the lower volume and inefficiencies related to the new truck program launches.

On a positive side, SG&A declined by $3 million, due to some early impacts of our restructuring actions. An additional benefit was the reduction of an accrual-related indirect tax obligations in the quarter. As previously mentioned, we recorded $10 million of restructuring charges. Excluding these charges, operating income would have been $9.4 million, which is much closer to the prior year results, despite the volume decline. Looking ahead to fiscal '14, we anticipate EUR13 million reduction in BMW sales. This is becoming much more manageable after absorbing approximately EUR38 million during this past fiscal year.

Now, turning to slide 16, we have a look at our South America business segment. Overall, the end markets and end volumes in Brazil are stronger than the other regions. Offsetting the volume has been a 13% Brazilian real decline versus the dollar. So, in local currency sales were actually up 11%. I'm pleased to report that gross margin improved to 370 basis points on higher volume and improved plant performance. Operating income increased by $3 million as a result of the gross margin improvement and lower SG&A expenses. We anticipate year-over-year volumes will continue to improve this fiscal year.

Now, turning to slide 17. We have the Asia business segment, where fourth-quarter sales were down 24% from the prior year, as order rates in the China excavator market have been constrained due to high inventory levels. For comparison purposes, the Chinese excavator market was down approximately 20% year-over-year. In the current environment, SG&A has been a major focus. Our management team has been leveraging administrative costs until volumes improve and you can see this in the SG&A line. Recently, there have been some indications of market improvement in China, and we are taking a cautious stance, but we remain encouraged. With the addition of new program launches, we fully expect to resume our revenue growth this year, and make a significant step towards a very important breakeven point.

Looking to slide 18, the business segment, Building HVAC, fourth quarter sales were up 1% from the prior year. This is primarily driven by higher sales of our North American heating products. UK chiller sales were down slightly from the prior year, due to economic conditions and some delayed customer shipments. Our gross margin declined slightly as a result of lower sales, especially chiller products, which tend to have higher margins. SG&A increased $500,000 from the prior year due to higher commissions and freight on the North American sales, plus product development costs to support future growth. As a net result, operating income was down slightly. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by the backlog of UK product sales.

Now, let's turn to our fiscal '14 guidance, which is on slide 19. As Tom outlined, we anticipate mixed market conditions in fiscal '14. In the short term, we see stable soft market conditions in North America and Europe, but improving later in the year. We anticipate further stabilization in the China construction market, with production remaining at current levels. We are encouraged about the growth outlook in South America and Building HVAC. Therefore, we anticipate moderate revenue growth under current conditions and we currently estimate the range from flat to up 5%. Even in the current market environment, we should be able to drive earnings improvements from restructuring actions, process improvements and lower material cost. We expect the resulting EPS will be in the range of $0.45 to $0.55, excluding any additional impairment or restructuring charges this year.

Given the restructuring activities and mix of earnings, the tax rate will be hard to predict. So, we currently estimate that the tax expense will be in the range of $12 million to $14 million, based on the projected mix of earnings and we will provide updates throughout the year. Our team is highly focused on profitability improvements in Europe, volume growth in Asia, along with free cash flow generation in all business segments. Last but not least, our long-term order book remains strong at Modine. We anticipate $225 million of net new business over the next three years, assuming current market and currency levels. So with that, Tom, I'll turn it back to you.

Thanks, Mick. Please turn to page 20. Because of the condition of our primary end markets, this has been a challenging year for Modine, with revenues down 12.8%, or $200 million. We faced many headwinds this year in our markets and we met them head on. The reaction of our employees and the performance of this Company speaks for itself. The work done in prior years to restructure our North American manufacturing footprint proved its value this year as margins mostly held up when the volumes declined. In South America, in commercial products, we have strong businesses that are poised for growth in the new fiscal year.

We still have work ahead of us in Europe and Asia. In Europe, our focus is on the commercial vehicle market, program launches and our restructuring program where we are making significant progress towards our goals for this region. We have proven that we know how to restructure our operations to ensure cost competitiveness and we're well down that path for Modine Europe. In Asia, our challenge is to execute growth strategies that will allow us to bring our technical expertise to that market and to build a more diverse customer base.

As Mick reviewed, we see mixed market dynamics but anticipate further earnings improvement in fiscal '14. Our longer-term outlook remains quite positive. This includes significant net new booked business, which combined with expected market improvements, and the benefit of our strategic business initiatives, gives me great confidence in Modine's future. Last year, I introduced our enduring goals, which drive the strategic decisions we're making today by keeping our team focused on long-term growth. By focusing daily on continuous improvement and our long-term strategies, we are building a stronger Modine, better able to quickly react and meet whatever challenges come our way. With that, we would like to take your questions.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

David Leiker of Baird.

A couple of things. I'm going to start in Asia. When you look at March of 2012, your revenues there are $22 million. You're obviously a lot lower than that today. If you had the same type of end market volumes as you had a year ago, I'm sure that you picked up some new businesses. Is there any way you can put some color or characterization in terms of what you might have grown that business, excluding what the markets did there?

Good question. Number one. Number two, we're contemplating. Clearly, a year ago at this time, we -- the volumes per program were a lot higher and the new business wins that were coming in were right on track as far as program wins. So that part hasn't changed. So really adjusting for the market conditions, making an assessment, but it's a good question. How would you answer that, Mick?

Yes, about -- David, about $4 million to $4.5 million, I would estimate of the -- well, I'd say earlier, we picked up about, I'd say $1 million to $1.5 million of incremental new business and launches. The balance that took us down to the $5 million decline was about a 20% to 22% decline in the end markets and then we highlighted another almost $2 million of, frankly, BMW -- piece of the BMW business that we always talk about in Europe is also winding down in Asia. So, short answer to your question, without any of the BMW wind down on market conditions, we probably would have been up somewhere between $1 million or $2 million in sales.

Okay. Great. Where are you in terms of being able to book business beyond your business today that's predominantly in the excavator market in Asia?

As you know, we put a lot of organic investment into our automotive side of the oil cooler business which we have strong positions, both in Europe and North America. And with a lot of the global customers that we're serving and are very pleased with the order intake rate that's coming in with that business. In addition, we're expanding beyond that with other opportunities along those same lines in engine products and also some other related off-highway business. So those are key diversification steps right now. Relationships is another key thing we've been working on. In the last six months, our leadership team and bringing in some new capability into that team to help expand on those and try to find some relationship sales that we can pick up that way, as well.

David, I would just add to that, too. In the $225 million in net new business, there's obviously a piece of that, that is Asia, that we have been awarded and booked, that's going to launch. That's pieces of truck and truck business in India. As Tom mentioned, also, automotive components launching in China. We do anticipate, with those launches, we have -- we're launching this fiscal year. So, as I said, we see -- despite the market conditions, we have -- we're starting to launch that business. So, we're confident in our ability to grow the topline despite the tough excavator market.

Then, but second item here is on the SG&A. It's fantastic work there. You've been focused on that here for several years. Is there room to take that further or is that the level that we stabilize that, do you think?

Yes, good questions and a fair question. No, I think what we have built into our outlook for the next year and the $0.45 to $0.55 is actually an increase in SG&A and it's really been us trying to manage cost as tightly as we can in the current environment. But, we will start to see some SG&A increases in the next year. I don't think the [$165 million, $167 million] range is the normal. It's probably more in the [$175 million, $180 million] range.

Okay. Great. Then, the last item is on the backlog. If I remember correctly, a year ago that number was $250 million. You are talking $225 million. So I try and reconcile between -- you pull '13 out of that, you throw 2016 into that, adjustments for production and currency. So it looks like in the -- it looks like I've got a net basis, it went down pretty significantly in the out year.

Yes, the way we calculate it, Dave, and we can compare how you're looking at it is, we do it on a three-year rolling. So you're right. Net, it went down about 2 -- about $22 million, $25 million. We did some swing on it -- about $10 million of that is just the change in the currency expectations from a year ago. Then, market volume really accounted for about $80 million. So, we've picked up some more orders in the last year. The biggest negative impact, frankly, has been market expectations and heavily around the truck side.

And, is that in terms of -- is there any color you can put in terms of the cadence? How you think that looks over the -- each in the next three years?

Yes, we are, very high level, you can think about it as a 30, 40, 30. The middle year -- this year, about a third of that, we're launching and then a bigger piece in year two and another third in year three, roughly speaking.

And how much of that is Euro VI truck, do you think? Is that -- I mean, at one point, I think you were talking about that being $100 million plus.

Yes, I don't have the breakdown of the $225 million with me but a significant piece of that would be Europe.

Ann Duignan of JPMorgan.

It's Mike Shlisky filling in for Ann this morning. So I wanted to follow-up with you on your Asia business. A two-part question and I hope this is not too soon. You guys mentioned you were expecting to see some volume increases in Asia going forward. Is that going to be enough in the next fiscal year or so, to get to a profitable level? Or is it too soon to be thinking that right now? Then, part two of the question is related. You also mentioned that you have lowered your breakeven point in Asia. Is that an incremental lowering since last earnings call a few months back? Or, is it still, I think you said around $90 million a year on the run rate?

Let me talk about the top line and I'll swing it to Mick to let him talk about the dynamics of the breakeven. We clearly are seeing -- we said stabilization in our base orders that we have in the excavator -- off-highway excavator business in China with some slight indications of that improving in the back half of the year. The programs that we've introduced over the last year, both in India and in China, are going to be coming on strong.

That is, the truck business and some other key business in India and also the oil cooler business in China, we'll also be ramping up this year. So, we are encouraged with how we see the top line growing and hopefully, we can see strengthening in those markets to continue to push the top line up. Now as far as when we get to breakeven and how that's going to tie in, I will let Mick respond to that.

Yes, the -- we won't see enough growth at our current expectations both Tom and I walked through with markets to move us in just this fiscal year to breakeven, Mike. But as Tom said, we do -- are launching programs this year and expecting topline growth. The new leadership team over there has really been pushing hard and we estimate that the breakeven is hanging in around the $85 million range. Frankly, that is, we've reached that capacity level with a business supporting India, our business supporting automotive in China, off-highway and potentially truck, that we need a certain level of infrastructure. So, that should hold where it's at for a while and that's why Tom has been emphasizing so much with the real play for us now, is to make sure we move that as quickly as we can above $80 million towards the $90 million.

Okay. Great, and then, quickly on Europe. If you could just update us. I know it's a long-term restructuring process, but just what inning might you be in over there in getting things, as far as your cost structure rightsized?

Well, let's step back a second and I'm glad you asked the question. As you -- if you think about where we started, we've closed and sold one plant in Germany a couple of years ago. We've made the arrangement with a second plant on the -- essentially outsourcing of that business to a contract manufacturer to full responsibility for the -- and we have the put option on selling down the road. So, essentially two of our plants in Germany, we have a good plan moving forward. The third plant, we're right in the middle of negotiation with our Work Council partner on -- and over the hump as far as defining this wind down approach and obviously, we're taking a big charge this year to approach that next phase of the wind down.

So, we'll continue with that, with that plant. That leaves our other plant, which is our focused high technology plant on the Euro VI radiators that we're supporting, which is a key plan for the future and a good plant that we actually acquired some new business that we feel good about long-term high performance EGR in Germany. So we're approaching the later inning, I would say, and feel very confident with the position we're in. We moved some other product around between our plants to better utilize scale.

So, and I'm very pleased with the team and the way they've -- really work together and focus not only on the plant operations but clearly, on the overall business operations and SG&A and utilizing the asset base to the best within the headquarters and the technical center as well. So we're definitely approaching later innings here and feel positive that we're on track to that 15% return on capital, as we approach the end of this fiscal year.

Walt Liptak of Global Hunter Securities.

Congratulations, too, on the SG&A reduction or restructuring. It was clearly a tough year. But I wanted to try and get your view on where some of the restructuring is going to show up over the next 12 months. It sounds like there's a little increase in SG&A. So, is it gross margin where we would see the improvement if your revenue was flat?

Yes. Good question. Well, primarily, that's where we would expect to see the -- in a flat environment, it comes through on the gross margin line. As I mentioned, I think we've got a little bit more year-over-year reduction, full-year impact to some of the restructuring in Europe on SG&A. But, globally, with wage increases and we've also had some other benefits this year that we won't be able to continue to have in the following years, I think SG&A will go up. So, it would be in the gross margin line.

Okay. So, the -- when you do the math, though, with the restructuring that's already happened and just assume that flat top line. What -- how many basis points do you get of gross margin improvement?

Well, the way we're looking at it right now from the European side, is we are targeting to get them to a similar gross margin level to North America. They basically have nearly identical revenue run rates, similar customers, same products. So, as you compare the North American margin to Europe, that's our primary goal. With North America this year, it's been running almost 16%. Europe is going to finish the year more in the 12%, 13% range. So, over the next couple of years, we see 2 to 3 points of margin improvement in Europe.

Okay. All right --

As we look to next year, Walt, just to follow your question, we should see some improvement in Asia in the gross margin. You saw some improvement, big improvement in South America and we'd expect that to be next year. So, we would have year -- three of our five segments, we would expect to show some margin improvement being in Europe. South America and Asia, commercial products, our HVAC business in North America to be more normal with volume, given all the profitability levels that are already currently pretty high.

Okay. Okay. I get the message on the -- with the guidance with a flat revenue and the headwinds. But just looking at North America, two-thirds of the business is heavy or medium trucks, autos, which are -- the order activity has been better in truck, especially auto is still good. Ag isn't bad, right? It's growing a little bit. I wonder about the outlook and if you're not -- just being too cautious on what some of the sales growth looks like over the next 12 months?

So, I think that when you're banking on market recovery to really guide you to your expectation, you've got to be careful, right? This year, it sounds familiar to last year. So, we are being cautious on heavy-duty truck. We definitely agree that mediums is going to have -- be stronger this year. We think heavy is going to be down on a year-over-year basis.

I think off-highway is going to be pretty flat. I think there is some upside on the ag side. It's there, but as far as construction and mining, we see that as challenged, quite frankly, with things that are remaining in place. So, we think it's responsible to be, let's say, cautious, okay? But yet, we're planning for some upside, but we think that we're -- we need to be cautious in how we approach that.

Okay. Is there any -- are there any moving parts in your North American heavy truck business? Mix issues, or customer programs that are changing for this year?

No. No. No moving parts. We've got a lot of work going into supporting programs we're on and customers we're with, but everything is stable in that regard.

David Leiker of Baird.

Just a couple of follow-ups. Did you -- I don't know if Tom or Mick, but you said you want to hit your Europe ROIC targets by the end of this fiscal year; did I hear that correctly?

We want to be on the run rate -- going into fiscal '15, we want to be at a 15% run rate. So, this year is our year to start seeing that return on capital going up. So, we come out of this fiscal year into next year, that we're at that 15% run rate.

So does that mean that 200 to 300 basis points of gross margin improvement, we would expect to see that in Q4 number given current market conditions?

No. No. Just to add to what Tom is saying, we -- by the end of fiscal '15, using the full-year results, David, we are targeted to 15%.

Right.

So, it's going to be sequential for quality quarters, even when we start next year at this time, we'll still have some improvement to push out through the year. So, think of an eight-quarter climb.

Okay. And then --

I was just going to say and the '15 being -- that we -- it averages out to hit our 15%.

Okay. The -- I'm trying to think -- one of the things, on Euro VI launches, the market has been trying to get their arms around, it looks like there's a bit of a pre-light going on in the UK. Where are you in terms of launching programs that you're in production with today? I think that most of the European manufacturers you're involved with, they have started producing those trucks, but obviously not in volume.

We are slowly ramping up with two of the three main customers on Euro VI trucks that we're on. So, we've got two underway. The third will start in the second half of this year, of this calendar year. So, we're seeing this thing, let's call it a two-thirds, one-third, first half of the year of Euro V, Euro VI, that will start flipping over in the second half of the year as you get to the end of the fiscal year requirement for all sales of the Euro VI compliant. So, we are two thirds of the way into launching with our customers today. That will be complete and corresponding ramp-up is going to go start really accelerating in the second half of the year.

Is that a September quarter ramp or is that more of a December quarter?

Well, the question of ramp has been a big question all along here, right? Because what we were told last year what we're going to be is far less than we are. So I think, again, I think we're being cautious on this one. So I'd say it's going to be a later half of the second half. Yes, probably start pushing in September, October acceleration.

Let's assume for a moment that there's no pulling out of demand for Euro VI, that it all generally is going to be January 1, 2014. If that starts hitting your P&L as you ramp up production units getting -- is that a December time period? Or is it September, October time period?

I think we start seeing it more in the October, mid-October, late October range being the release is getting very -- because essentially sales have to be compliant by -- so, it will be tied to, call it, production made, but they have long -- they have orders they're taking for the Euro VI, too. I would say couple months leading into that January. So I'm thinking October-ish, we would start seeing that.

And then are there any -- I think all the power gen cooling opportunities there have been awarded out, right? I mean, there isn't an opportunity there yet, is there?

I would say the big packages are all done. They're still some opportunity with components to go in and support the remaining work we're on, but I'd say as far as big platform packages, you're right. I think it's complete.

I'm showing no further questions in the queue, and would like to turn the conference back to Ms. Kathy Powers for any further remarks.

Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining us this morning and thank you for your interest in Modine. Good-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's program. This does conclude the presentation and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a good day.