奧馳亞 (MO) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q1 調整後 EPS 年增 7.3%,展現強勁開局;煙品事業帶動獲利成長,on! 口含尼古丁產品表現穩健
    • 2026 全年調整後 EPS 指引維持不變,預計成長 2.5% 至 5.5%;公司強調上半年與下半年成長將更為均衡
    • 本季未見明顯市場反應或同業對比資訊
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 煙品事業(特別是 Marlboro)在高利潤 premium segment 持續擴大市佔,展現品牌力
      • Basic 在折扣市場強勢成長,帶動 PM USA 整體市佔提升
      • on! 及 on! Plus 口含尼古丁產品全國擴張,產品創新(NICOSILK 技術)與 FDA 授權推動差異化
      • 持續資本回饋(高額股利與庫藏股)展現現金流穩健
    • 風險:
      • 消費者面臨經濟壓力(高通膨、油價上升),導致高價產品市佔受壓抑、消費者轉向折扣品牌
      • 口含煙產品(MST)出貨量下滑,on! 雖成長但未能完全抵消
      • e-vapor(電子煙)類別受非法口味產品與監管不確定性影響,產業成長趨緩
      • FDA 授權進度、監管政策與執法強度仍具不確定性
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 調整後 EPS:Q1 年增 7.3%
    • Marlboro premium segment 市佔:59.5%,年增 0.1 個百分點,季增 0.2 個百分點
    • Basic 折扣品牌市佔:年增 2.4 個百分點,季增 0.5 個百分點
    • PM USA 總市佔:年增 0.4 個百分點,季增 0.1 個百分點
    • on! 口含尼古丁產品出貨量:年增近 18%,Q1 超過 4600 萬罐
    • on! & on! Plus 零售市佔:7.8%,年減 0.8 個百分點,季增 0.2 個百分點
    • Oral tobacco segment 調整後 OCI 利潤率:67.4%,年減 1.8 個百分點
    • Oral tobacco segment 出貨量:年減 3.1%,調整後年減約 8.5%
    • Cigarette 行業出貨量:年減 5%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年調整後 EPS 指引維持 $5.72,年增 2.5% 至 5.5%
    • 公司預期 2026 年 EPS 成長將於上、下半年更為均衡
    • CapEx、毛利率等其他財務預測未於本次會議揭露
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q1 表現優於預期,為何不調升全年指引?折扣菸品成長的驅動因素為何?
      A: Q1 主要受惠於煙品類別交叉流動減緩,帶動出貨量表現,但考量經濟環境仍具不確定性(如油價上升、消費壓力),因此選擇維持全年指引。折扣品牌成長主要因消費者經濟壓力,PM USA 的全產品組合策略讓 Basic 能有效吸納這部分需求。
    • Q: 煙品 OCI(營業利潤)強勁,主要驅動因素?Duty drawback(出口退稅)效益如何?
      A: 主要由於價格提升與交叉流動減緩帶動出貨量,Duty drawback 及出口量增加也有助於利潤表現。Duty drawback 效益預計全年將逐季增加,但 EPS 成長均衡主要還是來自煙品出貨量與經濟環境變化。
    • Q: on! Plus 全國鋪貨後,初期消費者反應如何?新口味申請進度?
      A: on! Plus 於 3 月底全國鋪貨,目前仍屬早期階段,對未來成長樂觀。新口味已向 FDA 申請,屬於快速審查計畫,預期 180 天內可獲審核結果。
    • Q: 經濟壓力(如油價上升)對低價消費者的影響?e-vapor 監管加強後策略是否調整?
      A: 消費者面臨經濟壓力,折扣品牌需求提升,公司透過數據分析精準推廣 Basic,並以 Cal Boyd Cut 等產品吸引價格敏感的 Marlboro 消費者。e-vapor 方面,監管與執法加強,公司正積極解決專利問題,期待未來能以合規產品回歸市場。
    • Q: on! Plus 擴大鋪貨的貨架空間主要來自哪裡?
      A: 主要來自口含尼古丁產品自身類別的貨架空間,並非搶佔傳統口含煙產品或其他品牌。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2026 first quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session.

    各位好,歡迎參加奧馳亞集團(Altria Group)2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的會議預計約一小時,包括奧馳亞管理層的發言以及問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks.

    投資界與媒體代表將可在預先準備的發言結束後提問。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我想把電話交給投資人關係副總裁 Mac Livingston。先生,請開始。

  • Mac Livingston - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

    Mac Livingston - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

  • Thanks, Rehalani. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO, and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's 2026 first quarter business results.

    謝謝你,Rehalani。各位早安,感謝各位加入我們。今天早上,奧馳亞執行長 Billy Gifford 與財務長 Sal Mancuso 將討論奧馳亞 2026 年第一季的業務成果。

  • Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, and quarterly metrics are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2025.

    我們今天稍早已發布新聞稿說明本季結果。新聞稿、簡報與季度指標皆可於 altria.com 取得。在今天的電話會議中,除非另有說明,我們將把結果與 2025 年同期進行比較。

  • Our remarks contain forward-looking statements, including projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our Board of Directors. We will report our financial results in accordance with US generally accepted accounting principles.

    我們的發言包含前瞻性陳述,包括對未來結果的預測。請查閱今日財報新聞稿末尾的前瞻性與警示性陳述章節,其中列示可能導致實際結果與預測存在重大差異的各項因素。未來股利發放與股票回購仍須由本公司董事會酌情決定。我們將依照美國一般公認會計原則(US GAAP)報告財務結果。

  • Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com.

    今天的電話會議將包含以申報基礎與調整後基礎呈現的多項營運結果。調整後結果排除影響與申報結果可比性的特殊項目。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的說明,以及與最可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表,均載於今日財報新聞稿並公布於我們的網站 altria.com。

  • Finally, all references in today's remarks to nicotine consumers or consumers within a specific nicotine category or segment refer to existing adult nicotine consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

    最後,今天發言中所有提及尼古丁消費者,或特定尼古丁品類/區隔中的消費者,均指年滿 21 歲或以上的既有成年尼古丁消費者。接下來我把電話交給 Billy。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mac. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We delivered a strong start to the year, growing adjusted diluted EPS by 7.3% in the first quarter. Our highly cash-generative businesses supported significant returns to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, while we continue to invest in support of our vision. Our smokeable products segment generated strong income growth.

    謝謝你,Mac。各位早安,感謝各位加入我們。我們在今年取得強勁開局,第一季調整後稀釋每股盈餘(EPS)成長 7.3%。我們高度產生現金的業務透過股利與股票回購為股東帶來可觀回報,同時我們也持續投資以支持我們的願景。我們的可燃產品(smokeable products)部門實現強勁的獲利成長。

  • Marlboro strengthened its position in the premium segment and PM USA continued to execute its total portfolio strategy with discipline. In the oral tobacco products segment, on! performed well in a highly competitive marketplace and Helix expanded on! PLUS nationwide. My remarks this morning will focus on first quarter performance from on!

    Marlboro 鞏固其在高端(premium)區隔的領先地位,PM USA 也持續以紀律執行其全產品組合策略。在口含菸草產品(oral tobacco products)部門,on! 在競爭激烈的市場中表現良好,而 Helix 也將 on! PLUS 擴展至全美。我今天早上的發言將聚焦於 on! 第一季的表現。

  • And an update on the state of the e-vapor category. I'll then turn it over to Sal, who will provide further detail on our business results and financial outlook. Let's begin with on! and the nicotine pouch category. Over the past six months, oral nicotine pouches drove the estimated 9.5% increase in total oral tobacco industry volume.

    並更新電子霧化(e-vapor)品類的現況。接著我會把電話交給 Sal,由他進一步說明我們的業務成果與財務展望。先從 on! 與尼古丁口含袋(nicotine pouch)品類談起。過去六個月,口含式尼古丁袋帶動整體口含菸草產業銷量估計成長 9.5%。

  • In the first quarter, the nicotine pouch category grew 9.1 share points and now represents more than 58% of total oral tobacco. Against this backdrop, Helix delivered solid results in a highly competitive environment. Reported shipment volume for the total on! portfolio grew nearly 18% and to over 46 million cans in the first quarter, reflecting continued demand for on! Classic and the pipeline shipments for the on! PLUS national expansion.

    第一季,尼古丁口含袋品類的市占提升 9.1 個百分點,目前已占整體口含菸草超過 58%。在此背景下,Helix 在高度競爭環境中交出穩健成績。第一季 on! 全產品組合的申報出貨量成長近 18%,達到超過 4,600 萬罐,反映 on! Classic 的持續需求,以及 on! PLUS 全國擴張的管線出貨。

  • At retail, on! and on! PLUS together represented 7.8% of the total oral tobacco category, down 0.8 share points year-over-year and up 0.2 share points sequentially. We began shipping on! PLUS nationwide in March. And at the end of the first quarter, it was available in approximately 100,000 stores, representing 85% of nicotine pouch category volume.

    在零售端,on! 與 on! PLUS 合計占整體口含菸草品類的 7.8%,較去年同期下滑 0.8 個百分點,但較前一季上升 0.2 個百分點。我們於 3 月開始全美出貨 on! PLUS。第一季末,該產品已在約 100,000 家門市上架,涵蓋尼古丁口含袋品類銷量的 85%。

  • On! PLUS is the first and only product authorized under the FDA's pilot program, I think that streamlining PMTA reviews for certain oral nicotine pouches. The brand is currently available in three flavors across two nicotine strengths and features our proprietary NICOSILK technology.

    on! PLUS 是第一個也是唯一一個在 FDA 試點計畫下獲授權的產品;我認為該計畫旨在為特定口含式尼古丁袋的 PMTA 審查流程提供精簡化。該品牌目前提供三種口味、兩種尼古丁濃度,並採用我們專有的 NICOSILK 技術。

  • To support the on! PLUS expansion, Helix recently launched a new retail trade program to strengthen execution across the full on! portfolio. The program is focused on increasing visibility and securing incremental fixture space to support on! PLUS today and future innovations over time.

    為支持 on! PLUS 的擴張,Helix 近期推出新的零售通路方案,以強化 on! 全產品組合的執行力。該方案聚焦於提升能見度並爭取額外的陳列設備空間,以支持當前的 on! PLUS 以及未來隨時間推進的創新。

  • Today, the Helix trade program has secured premium retail positioning in contracted stores, representing approximately 90% of Helix volume. Additionally, on! PLUS is prominently featured across key retail touch points with coordinated signage from curb to counter.

    目前,Helix 的通路方案已在簽約門市取得優質的零售陳列位置,這些門市約占 Helix 銷量的 90%。此外,on! PLUS 在關鍵零售接觸點均有醒目呈現,並以從路邊到櫃檯的整合式標示協同展示。

  • on! PLUS is supported by marketing that highlights the product experience, including visuals that showcase the pouch itself, communicate comfort and reinforce its positioning as the softest pouch on the planet. These materials are designed to give nicotine consumers a clear understanding of how the pouch looks, feels and fits. This messaging is complemented by initiatives such as in-person events, brand partnerships, paid social media and streaming audio that aim to increase awareness, drive trial and further strengthen on! brand equity.

    on! PLUS 由強調產品體驗的行銷活動支持,包括展示口含袋本體的視覺素材、傳達舒適感,並強化其「全球最柔軟口含袋」的定位。這些素材旨在讓尼古丁消費者清楚了解口含袋的外觀、觸感與貼合度。此訊息亦搭配線下活動、品牌合作、付費社群媒體與串流音訊等措施,以提升認知、促進試用並進一步強化 on! 的品牌資產。

  • Importantly, these efforts are grounded in responsibility with safeguards to limit reach to underage audiences and with a strong focus on regulatory compliance. Through these actions, we believe we can position on! PLUS as a differentiated offering for adult nicotine consumers and responsibly grow the brand over the long term.

    重要的是,這些努力以負責任為基礎,設有防護措施以限制觸及未成年受眾,並高度聚焦於法規遵循。透過這些行動,我們相信能將 on! PLUS 定位為面向成年尼古丁消費者的差異化選擇,並在長期內以負責任的方式推動品牌成長。

  • On the regulatory front, the FDA is reviewing applications for on! PLUS Mint, Wintergreen and Tobacco and 12-milligram strengths under its pilot program. And we have submitted applications for six additional varieties across three nicotine strengths. We believe the science and evidence supporting all of these applications is compelling and provides a basis for FDA authorization within the 180-day statutory time line.

    在法規方面,FDA 正在其試點計畫下審查 on! PLUS 薄荷(Mint)、冬青(Wintergreen)與菸草(Tobacco)口味,以及 12 毫克濃度的申請。我們也已提交另外六種品項、涵蓋三種尼古丁濃度的申請。我們相信支持所有這些申請的科學與證據具說服力,並可作為 FDA 在法定 180 天期限內核准授權的依據。

  • Let's now turn the e-vapor category. While illicit flavored disposable products remain prevalent, after several years of rapid growth, we began to see signs of moderation in the back half of 2025. We believe increased enforcement activity and supply-related marketplace disruption have slowed demand for these products, and those dynamics continued into the first quarter.

    接下來談電子霧化(e-vapor)品類。儘管非法的調味一次性產品仍相當普遍,但在經歷數年的快速成長後,我們在 2025 年下半年開始看到成長趨緩的跡象。我們認為,執法力度提升以及供應相關的市場擾動已降低這些產品的需求,而這些動態在第一季仍持續。

  • At the end of March, we estimate there were approximately 20.5 million adult vapors in line with the year ago period. Over the same time frame, the estimated number of disposable e-vapor consumers declined modestly. Taken together, we believe these developments suggest early indications that the category's prior growth trajectory driven largely by illicit flavored disposable products may be evolving.

    截至 3 月底,我們估計成年電子霧化使用者約為 2,050 萬人,與去年同期大致一致。在同一期間,估計的一次性電子霧化消費者人數小幅下降。綜合來看,我們認為這些發展顯示:先前主要由非法調味一次性產品所驅動的品類成長軌跡,可能正在演變。

  • From an enforcement perspective, we continue to see signs of a commitment from enforcement agencies and incremental progress. During the quarter, federal agencies worked alongside local law enforcement to combat illicit products, including a large-scale enforcement action in Northern Virginia supported by the Drug Enforcement Administration.

    從執法角度來看,我們持續看到執法機關展現承諾並取得更多進展跡象。本季期間,聯邦機構與地方執法部門合作打擊非法產品,包括在北維吉尼亞州(Northern Virginia)展開的一次大規模執法行動,並由美國緝毒署(Drug Enforcement Administration)提供支援。

  • In addition, in states where product directories are in place and properly enforced, we are seeing evidence that these frameworks are helping to reduce the presence of illicit products in tracked channels. In our view, consumer demand for e-vapor products demonstrates the potential for the category's role in tobacco harm reduction in the US. However, progress continues to be constrained by the limited number of FDA-authorized products.

    此外,在已建立產品名錄(product directories)且確實執行的州,我們看到證據顯示這些架構正在協助降低可追蹤通路中非法產品的存在。依我們看法,消費者對電子霧化產品的需求顯示該品類在美國菸草減害(tobacco harm reduction)方面具有潛在角色。然而,進展仍受限於 FDA 授權產品數量有限。

  • We see a clear pathway to restoring order and advancing harm reduction, anchored in a more efficient and predictable authorization process that supports reasonable, responsible innovation and establishes a compliant legal marketplace of e-vapor products. When combined with sustained enforcement, we believe this would allow compliant manufacturers to provide adult nicotine consumers with authorized high-quality products that are appropriate for the protection of public health.

    我們看到一條清晰路徑,可在更有效率且可預期的授權流程基礎上恢復秩序並推進減害;該流程支持合理、負責任的創新,並建立合規的電子霧化產品合法市場。若再結合持續的執法,我們相信這將使合規製造商能為成年尼古丁消費者提供已獲授權的高品質產品,且符合公共衛生保護的適切性。

  • Overall, we delivered a strong start to the year. Our results this quarter reflected disciplined execution across our businesses, continued smoke-free progress amid a dynamic regulatory and competitive environment and our commitment to returning substantial capital to shareholders.

    整體而言,我們在今年開局表現強勁。本季業績反映出我們在各項業務上的紀律性執行、在多變的監管與競爭環境下持續推進無煙化進展,以及我們致力於向股東回饋可觀資本的承諾。

  • Lastly, as you know, this will be my final earnings call as CEO. It has been a privilege to lead this company alongside so many talented colleagues and friends. And I'm proud of the progress we've made together. I've also thoroughly enjoyed engaging with the investment community along the way, and I thank you for your trust and support. As I step away, I do so with full confidence in our leadership team and the strategy in place going forward.

    最後,如各位所知,這將是我以執行長身分主持的最後一次財報電話會議。能與眾多才華洋溢的同事與朋友一同領導這家公司,是我的榮幸。我也為我們共同取得的進展感到自豪。在此過程中,我也非常享受與投資社群的互動,並感謝各位的信任與支持。當我卸任之際,我對我們的領導團隊以及未來既定策略充滿信心。

  • I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide additional details on our business and financial results.

    接下來我把時間交給 Sal,請他就我們的業務與財務結果提供更多細節。

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • The Smokable Products segment delivered strong financial performance in the first quarter, reflecting the continued resilience of our Smokable business. Segment-adjusted OCI grew by 6.3% with adjusted OCI margins expanding to 65.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points.

    可燃產品(Smokable Products)事業部在第一季交出強勁的財務表現,反映我們可燃業務持續展現韌性。事業部調整後 OCI 成長 6.3%,調整後 OCI 利潤率擴大至 65.1%,增加 0.7 個百分點。

  • This performance was supported by solid net price realization of 6.3%. Additionally, we saw the decline in our smokable volumes continue to moderate. In the first quarter. Reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 2.4%. When adjusted for trade inventory movements, we estimate domestic cigarette shipment volumes declined by 4%.

    此表現受惠於 6.3% 的穩健淨價格實現。此外,我們也看到可燃產品銷量下滑持續趨緩。第一季,申報的美國國內香菸銷量下降 2.4%。若調整通路庫存變動,我們估計美國國內香菸出貨量下降 4%。

  • At the industry level, when adjusted for trade inventory movements, we estimate domestic cigarette industry volumes declined by 5%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential year-over-year moderation.

    在產業層面,若調整通路庫存變動,我們估計美國國內香菸產業銷量下降 5%,並連續第四季呈現逐季、年對年下滑幅度趨緩。

  • This trend was driven primarily by reduced cross-category movement between cigarettes and illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products. For consumers, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging. Elevated everyday expenses and higher gas prices later in the quarter continued to weigh on discretionary income among more price-sensitive adult smokers.

    此趨勢主要由香菸與非法風味一次性電子霧化(e-vapor)產品之間的跨品類移動減少所驅動。對消費者而言,總體經濟環境仍具挑戰。日常支出居高不下,以及本季後段較高的汽油價格,持續壓縮對價格更敏感的成年吸菸者之可支配所得。

  • Although higher than normal tax refunds provided some short-term relief, these pressures were primarily were the primary driver of year-over-year discount segment retail share growth of 2.4 share points. This trade-down dynamic impacted Marlboro's overall retail share, which declined 1.4 share points versus the year ago period and 0.1 share points sequentially.

    儘管高於正常水準的退稅在短期內提供了一些緩解,但這些壓力主要是推動折扣品類零售市占率年對年成長 2.4 個百分點的主因。此「向下轉換」(trade-down)動態影響了萬寶路(Marlboro)的整體零售市占率,較去年同期下降 1.4 個百分點,較前一季下降 0.1 個百分點。

  • However, in the highly profitable premium segment, where smoker purchasing behavior reflects higher levels of brand loyalty, Marlboro continued to demonstrate its competitive strength. In the first quarter, Marlboro expanded its share of the premium segment to 59.5% up 0.1 SharePoint versus the prior year and 0.2 SharePoint sequentially, expanding its long-standing leadership position.

    然而,在獲利能力極高的高端(premium)品類中,吸菸者的購買行為反映出更高程度的品牌忠誠度,萬寶路持續展現其競爭優勢。第一季,萬寶路在高端品類的市占率擴大至 59.5%,較去年增加 0.1 個百分點,較前一季增加 0.2 個百分點,進一步鞏固其長期領導地位。

  • Basic continued to capture share in the discount segment, reflecting PM USA's data-driven total portfolio approach to meeting a broad set of consumer needs. Basic's retail share grew 0.5 SharePoint sequentially. And 2.4 share points year-over-year. Total PM USA retail share grew 0.1 share points sequentially and 0.4 share points versus a year ago, demonstrating the strong execution of PM USA's total portfolio approach.

    Basic 持續在折扣品類中擴大市占,反映 PM USA 以數據驅動的整體產品組合策略,以滿足廣泛的消費者需求。Basic 的零售市占率較前一季成長 0.5 個百分點,年對年成長 2.4 個百分點。PM USA 整體零售市占率較前一季成長 0.1 個百分點,較去年成長 0.4 個百分點,展現 PM USA 整體產品組合策略的強勁執行力。

  • In cigars, reported shipment volume was down slightly by 0.2%. Middleton continued to outperform the large mass cigar industry behind the strength of Black & Mild. Let's turn now to the Oral Tobacco Products segment, which delivered over $400 million in adjusted OCI in the first quarter. Adjusted OCI margins remained strong at 67.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from a year ago, and were impacted by Helix marketing investments for in-person events and digital advertising, as well as product mix between traditional MST and nicotine pouches.

    在雪茄方面,申報的出貨量小幅下降 0.2%。Middleton 在 Black & Mild 的帶動下,持續優於大型大眾雪茄產業。接著談口含菸草產品(Oral Tobacco Products)事業部,第一季調整後 OCI 超過 4 億美元。調整後 OCI 利潤率維持強勁,為 67.4%,較去年下降 1.8 個百分點,主要受到 Helix 在實體活動與數位廣告的行銷投資,以及傳統 MST 與尼古丁袋(nicotine pouches)之間的產品組合變化影響。

  • Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 3.1% as growth in on was more than offset by lower MST volumes. When adjusted for trade inventory movements. We estimate that first quarter oral tobacco products segment volumes declined by approximately 8.5%.

    該事業部總申報出貨量下降 3.1%,因 on 的成長被 MST 銷量下滑所抵銷。若調整通路庫存變動,我們估計第一季口含菸草產品事業部銷量約下降 8.5%。

  • Year-over-year, trade inventory comparisons were impacted primarily by on! PLUS pipeline volume in the first quarter and elevated competitor volume in 2025. Oral tobacco products segment retail share declined by 5.5 percentage points. Overall, we remain encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco businesses as Copenhagen continued to lead in MST and Helix expanded its portfolio in the growing nicotine pouch category.

    年對年而言,通路庫存比較主要受到第一季 on! PLUS 管線鋪貨量,以及 2025 年競品出貨量偏高的影響。口含菸草產品事業部零售市占率下降 5.5 個百分點。整體而言,我們仍對口含菸草業務表現感到鼓舞,因 Copenhagen 持續在 MST 領先,而 Helix 也在成長中的尼古丁袋品類擴充其產品組合。

  • Turning to our investment in ABI, we recorded $160 million in adjusted equity earnings in the quarter, up 9.6% versus the prior year. We continue to view our ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize the long-term value of the investments of the investment for our shareholders. We remain committed to to returning significant value to shareholders in maintaining a strong balance sheet.

    談到我們對 ABI 的投資,本季我們認列 1.6 億美元的調整後權益法收益,較去年成長 9.6%。我們仍將 ABI 持股視為一項財務性投資,我們的目標仍是為股東將該投資的長期價值最大化。我們也持續致力於在維持強健資產負債表的同時,向股東回饋可觀價值。

  • In the first quarter, we paid approximately $1.8 billion in dividends and repurchased 4.5 million shares for $280 million. At the end of the quarter, we had $720 million remaining under our current share repurchase program, which expires at the end of the year.

    第一季,我們支付約 18 億美元股利,並以 2.8 億美元回購 450 萬股。季末時,我們在現行庫藏股回購計畫下尚餘 7.2 億美元額度,該計畫將於年底到期。

  • In addition, our balance sheet remains strong. We've retired just over $1 billion of debt that matured in February and our total debt-to-EBITDA ratio as of March 31, was 1.9 times in line with our target. Finally, on guidance, we reaffirm our expectation to deliver 2026 full-year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $5.56 to $5.72, representing a growth rate of 2.5% to 5.5% from a base of $5.42 in 2025.

    此外,我們的資產負債表仍然強健。我們已償還於 2 月到期的逾 10 億美元債務;截至 3 月 31 日,我們的總負債對 EBITDA 比率為 1.9 倍,符合我們的目標。最後,關於財測,我們重申 2026 全年調整後稀釋每股盈餘(EPS)預期區間為 5.56 至 5.72 美元,係以 2025 年 5.42 美元為基礎,代表 2.5% 至 5.5% 的成長率。

  • As a result of the strong first quarter performance, we now expect 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth to be more balanced between the first half and the second half of the year. Our reaffirmed guidance range now contemplates the impact of moderated e-vapor industry growth on combustible and e-vapor product volumes and increased macroeconomic uncertainty facing adult nicotine consumers.

    由於第一季表現強勁,我們現在預期 2026 年調整後稀釋 EPS 的成長將在上半年與下半年之間更為均衡。我們重申的財測區間已納入電子霧化(e-vapor)產業成長趨緩對可燃與電子霧化產品銷量的影響,以及成年尼古丁消費者所面臨的總體經濟不確定性上升。

  • Before we wrap up, I'd like to thank Billy for his leadership over his decades of service to Altria. I have enjoyed the privilege of working closely with Billy for many years, and he has positioned us well to succeed in the future. We are committed to building upon the strong foundation he's fostered and accelerating progress toward our vision.

    在結束之前,我想感謝 Billy 在其服務 Altria 數十年間所展現的領導力。我多年來有幸與 Billy 密切共事,他已讓我們在未來成功方面具備良好定位。我們承諾將在他所奠定的堅實基礎上持續建設,並加速朝我們的願景邁進。

  • With that, Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory, and other items. Operator let's open the question-and-answer period.

    接下來,Billy 和我很樂意回答各位的問題。在彙整來電的同時,我提醒各位,今天的財報新聞稿以及我們的非 GAAP 調節表可於 altria.com 取得。我們也已發布一如往常的季度指標,其中包含定價、庫存及其他項目。接線員,請開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Faham Baig, UBS.

    Faham Baig,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Faham Baig - Equity Analyst

    Faham Baig - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. Are you able to hear me?

    各位早安。你們聽得到我嗎?

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, we are.

    是的,我們聽得到。

  • Faham Baig - Equity Analyst

    Faham Baig - Equity Analyst

  • Brilliant. Thanks for taking my question. I have two, please. The first one, I guess, is on your performance. At the full year stage, you spoke about a second half weighted performance this year, but Q1 came in seemingly stronger than expected. What were the areas that surprised you positively relative to the guidance in February.

    太好了。謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於你們的表現。在全年展望時,你們提到今年的表現會偏向下半年,但第一季看起來似乎比預期更強。相較於 2 月的指引,有哪些面向帶來了正向的意外?

  • And I guess given the stronger-than-expected quarter, why have you chosen not to raise or narrow the guidance for the full year? So that's the first question.

    另外,既然本季表現優於預期,為什麼你們選擇不提高或縮窄全年指引?這是第一個問題。

  • And the second question is on cigarette volumes. Clearly, over the last six months, there has been an improvement in volumes. But it seems to be entirely driven by the deep discount segment. So I guess what are the key drivers that are helping this particular segment? And why may not be sort of supporting the premium segment too?

    第二個問題是關於香菸銷量。很明顯在過去六個月,銷量有所改善,但看起來完全是由深度折扣品類所帶動。因此,我想問推動這個品類的關鍵因素是什麼?以及為什麼這些因素似乎沒有同樣支撐高端品類?

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • Yeah, so good morning and thank you for the questions. So look, we do a terrific job of forecasting the year I would say, though, is the first quarter played out, what you saw was stronger volume performance, and that's primarily driven in the smokeable category by a moderation of the cross-category movement that I talked about in my opening remarks.

    是的,各位早安,謝謝你們的提問。你看,我會說我們在全年預測方面做得非常好;不過,第一季的實際表現中,你們看到的是更強勁的銷量表現,而這主要是由我在開場致詞中提到的跨品類移轉趨勢降溫所帶動,尤其是在可燃品類別。

  • So as the year plays out, we see growth being more balanced between the first half and the in the second half of the year. So that was the primary driver that we're seeing. We thought it was prudent to reaffirm guidance. We're a quarter into the year.

    因此,隨著今年進展,我們看到成長在上半年與下半年之間會更為均衡。這就是我們目前看到的主要驅動因素。我們認為重申財測指引是審慎之舉,畢竟今年才過了一季。

  • Obviously, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging and uncertain. Gas prices have increased at the end of the quarter significantly. There's been some maybe short-term offsets to that as we've seen tax refunds higher than we have seen in the -- in past years, and that may be somewhat short term if you think about it. So we'll see how the rest of the year plays out. Obviously, if there's any updates as the year progresses to our guidance, we would communicate that.

    顯然,總體經濟環境仍具挑戰且不確定。季末汽油價格大幅上升。也有一些可能的短期抵銷因素,例如我們看到退稅金額高於過去幾年——如果你這樣想的話,這可能偏短期。因此我們會觀察今年其餘時間的發展。當然,若隨著年度推進我們對指引有任何更新,我們會對外溝通。

  • But we feel really good about our ability to reaffirm guidance for the year. As far as cigarette volumes go, again, I mentioned the cross-category moderation that we've seen played out, but the consumer does remain under pressure, and that's been a driver of the growth in the discount category.

    但我們對於能夠重申全年指引非常有信心。就香菸銷量而言,我再次提到我們看到的跨品類移轉降溫已經反映出來,但消費者仍承受壓力,而這也推動了折扣品類的成長。

  • We are really happy with PM USA's total portfolio strategy, which allows Basic to capture share of that discount category. So we feel really good about PM USA's performance for the quarter and very pleased with Marlboro's performance where it grew its share of premium sequentially and year-over-year.

    我們對 PM USA 的整體產品組合策略非常滿意,這讓 Basic 能夠在折扣品類中取得市占。因此我們對 PM USA 本季表現感到非常好,也很高興看到 Marlboro 的表現——其高端(premium)市占率不論是較前一季或年增都提升。

  • Faham Baig - Equity Analyst

    Faham Baig - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks, guys.

    謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt Smith, Stifel.

    Matt Smith,Stifel。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. And Billy, first off, just want to wish you well in your retirement in the upcoming weeks here.

    嗨,早安。謝謝讓我提問。Billy,首先也祝你在接下來幾週退休一切順利。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Just wanted to dig into smokeable OCI a bit. The performance was quite strong in the quarter. And on a per pack basis, operating costs were below the level from the second half of last year. I think less volume deleverage was likely a benefit.

    我想再深入問一下可燃品的 OCI。這一季表現相當強勁。而以每包計算,營運成本低於去年下半年的水準。我認為較少的銷量去槓桿(volume deleverage)可能帶來了好處。

  • But can you provide some more color on the other factors in smokable OCI seems like double the duty drawback grew in size? And did you see that drop through profit more efficiently in the quarter?

    但你能否再多補充一些其他因素?可燃品 OCI 方面,看起來 double duty drawback 的規模變大了?以及這一季你們是否看到它更有效率地轉化為利潤?

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • Yeah, so as you stated, we had really strong first quarter performance from our smokable segment. So just great job by PM USA and John Middleton in that segment. category -- in that segment. As far as spending goes, as we've stated earlier, we do have some investments in our import-export business, which are more weighted to the first half. So I wouldn't over-read a particular quarter, but the per pack controllable costs obviously were -- they did receive a benefit from the higher volume as well as the export volume that we've broken out for you in our financial statements.

    是的,如你所說,我們可燃品部門第一季表現非常強勁。PM USA 與 John Middleton 在該品類——在該部門——做得非常出色。就費用而言,如我們先前所說,我們在進出口業務上確實有一些投資,而這些投資在上半年比重較高。因此我不會過度解讀單一季度;但每包可控成本顯然——確實受惠於較高的銷量,以及我們在財報中為你們拆分揭露的出口量。

  • So but I would say the overall OCI was driven primarily through pricing and the stronger cigarette volume performance that you saw play out through the year. And again, that's primarily driven by the moderation of the cross-category movement between elicity, vapor and the cigarette category.

    不過我會說,整體 OCI 主要是由定價以及你們看到的較強香菸銷量表現所驅動,並在全年逐步反映。再次強調,這主要是由 elicity、vapor 與香菸品類之間的跨品類移轉降溫所帶動。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Thank you for that. And as a follow-up to the full-year guidance question, there's a lot of reinvestment this year, whether it's. Behind on! PLUS or the carryover from Basic repositioning and some other upcoming activities in Smokeable. If you continue to see resiliency in the consumer, how do you balance the earnings growth potential against leaning more heavily into reinvestment this year, given some of the flexibility you have?

    謝謝你的說明。作為對全年指引問題的追問,今年有很多再投資,不論是 on! PLUS 的投入,或是 Basic 重新定位的延續,以及可燃品的一些其他即將展開的活動。如果你們持續看到消費者展現韌性,考量你們具備一定彈性,你們會如何在今年更大幅度傾向再投資與盈餘成長潛力之間取得平衡?

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think you have to think about it in totality, Matt. When you think about investment, we don't feel like we're under-investing in any of our growing categories. And so we'll continue to invest appropriately with those. I think from the strength of the consumer, it's the wildcard with the economic outlook the way it is with higher gas prices and stuff, and as Sal mentioned, there were certainly offsets. We'll see as those offsets play out throughout the year and help gas prices continue to trend, and we'll make any changes when it's appropriate.

    是的,Matt,我認為你必須從整體來看。談到投資,我們不覺得在任何成長中的品類有投資不足的情況,因此我們會持續適度投入。我想就消費者的強韌度而言,在目前經濟展望、油價上升等因素下,這仍是變數;而如 Sal 提到的,確實也有一些抵銷因素。我們會觀察這些抵銷因素在全年如何發展,以及油價走勢,並在適當時機做出任何調整。

  • Matthew Smith - Analyst

    Matthew Smith - Analyst

  • Thank you. I'll pass it on.

    謝謝。我把時間交給下一位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

    Bonnie Herzog,Goldman Sachs。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • All right. Thank you. Good morning. And congratulations again, Billy and Sal. And Billy, I also wish you all the best in your retirement, and it's really been great working with you.

    好的,謝謝。早安。再次恭喜 Billy 和 Sal。Billy,我也祝你退休一切順利,和你合作真的很愉快。

  • I am, some of you guys can hear me. I have a question on the double. Okay, good. I have a question on the double duty drawback. I guess I was hoping for some more color on the expected phasing of the benefits you now expect this year. I believe you did start to import in the quarter, and I do see the stepped up benefits in Q1 versus Q4. So just curious, should we expect a steady increase in the benefits each quarter as the year progresses?

    我——有些人可能聽得到我。我有一個關於 double 的問題。好,太好了。我想問 double duty drawback。我原本希望能更了解你們今年預期效益的時程分布。我相信你們在本季已開始進口,而且我也看到第一季相較第四季效益有所提升。所以我想確認一下:隨著年度推進,我們是否應預期每一季的效益都會穩定增加?

  • And then, did this activity, play a role in any way in your updated guidance phasing, to be more evenly split between 1H and 2H? I guess I'm just trying to think if there was any type of pull forward in the quarter that we should be aware of.

    另外,這項活動是否在任何程度上影響你們更新後的指引時程分布,使其在上半年與下半年之間更平均?我只是想釐清,本季是否有任何需要注意的提前拉貨(pull forward)之類的情況。

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • Good morning, Bonnie, and thank you for the question. You will see increases in the export volume and the benefit of the duty drawback as the year progresses, so you are right in your assumption. I would tell you that the more balanced growth, diluted EPS growth, first half to second half is more driven.

    早安,Bonnie,謝謝你的提問。隨著年度推進,你會看到出口量以及 duty drawback 的效益增加,所以你的假設是正確的。我會告訴你,上半年到下半年的稀釋後 EPS 成長更為均衡,主要是由以下因素驅動。

  • By the fact that you've seen this moderation in cross-category movement and the benefit of the volume in the smokable segment. And then, of course, we're paying close attention to the economic conditions that our consumers are facing.

    也就是你看到跨品類移轉降溫,以及可燃品部門銷量帶來的效益。當然,我們也密切關注消費者所面臨的經濟狀況。

  • They are under significant economic pressure, again, from the cumulative impact of inflation. Rising costs of everyday items, including gas. So we'll pay close attention to that. But I would say that's the main driver of the balance between first half and second half.

    他們承受相當大的經濟壓力,主要來自通膨累積影響、日常用品成本上升(包含汽油)。因此我們會密切留意。但我會說,這是上半年與下半年之間更均衡的主要驅動因素。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks for the kind mortgage, Bonnie. The only thing I would add is I think it's important to think about the two drivers that are driving that interaction between smokeable and e-vapor. If you think about the two drivers, one is certainly enforcement. So as the product is not available for the consumer, they go back to their total consideration set and make decisions.

    謝謝你的好意,Bonnie。我唯一想補充的是,我認為重要的是要從兩個驅動因素來看可燃品與電子霧化(e-vapor)之間的互動。如果你看這兩個因素,其中之一當然是執法(enforcement)。當產品對消費者不可得時,他們會回到其整體考量集合(total consideration set)並做出選擇。

  • But it's also, and you heard in my remarks, saturation of the marketplace for the vapor products and a slowdown in that transition over, and so it's hard to predict exactly when that saturation point is going to hit, and we think we're starting to see signs that we hit that.

    但另一個因素也是——你在我發言中也聽到——霧化產品市場的飽和,以及轉換速度放緩。因此很難精準預測何時會到達飽和點,而我們認為我們開始看到已達到該點的跡象。

  • That's why we've been after and really pushing the FDA to think of not only enforcement, but authorization publishing and we think they can achieve much faster authorization by product standards.

    這也是為什麼我們一直在推動 FDA 不僅要思考執法,也要加快核准(authorization)的公布;我們認為他們可以透過產品標準更快地達成核准。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. And then just one other question, if I may, on Marlboro, you're rolling out Cowboy Cut soon. So maybe hoping for a little color on the rollout and maybe expected space allocations. And then could you provide a little, color on how you're going to manage Cowboy Cut relative to say Marlboro black in terms of pricing? And ultimately, I guess how we should think about, the contribution to profitability, how you're going to manage Cowboy Cut, maybe versus Marlboro black, et cetera. Thank you.

    好的,這很有幫助。那我再問一個問題,如果可以的話,關於 Marlboro。你們很快要推出 Cowboy Cut。希望你能談談推出計畫,以及預期的陳列空間分配。接著,你能否再補充一下,你們將如何在定價上管理 Cowboy Cut,相對於例如 Marlboro Black?最後,我想了解我們應如何看待對獲利的貢獻:你們會如何管理 Cowboy Cut,相較於 Marlboro Black 等等。謝謝。

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • Yeah, sure, Bonnie. Yeah, Cowboy Cut, we will expand distribution later in the year, specifically later in the second quarter. You should think of Cowboy Cut a couple of ways. One is it's a tool within our RGM toolbox. It provides price-sensitive Marlboro consumers with an option, and we believe that's important. So you should expect it to be competitively priced. But of course, with RGM, you may see different price points depending on what store you're going.

    好的,當然,Bonnie。是的,Cowboy Cut 我們會在今年稍晚擴大鋪貨,具體來說是在第二季後段。你可以從幾個角度看 Cowboy Cut。第一,它是我們 RGM 工具箱中的一項工具。它為對價格敏感的 Marlboro 消費者提供一個選擇,我們認為這很重要。因此你應該預期它會以具競爭力的價格定價。但當然,透過 RGM,你可能會因為你去的店家不同而看到不同的價位。

  • And also, Cowboy Cut allows us to build on Marlboro's heritage during a time when the country is celebrating its 250th anniversary. So it's also a benefit to Marlboro's overall equity strength that you see in the marketplace. So we're really excited about Cowboy Cut. It's a terrific product, and you will see a burger distribution as the cutter plays out.

    另外,Cowboy Cut 也讓我們能在全國慶祝 250 週年之際,延續並強化 Marlboro 的品牌傳承。因此,這也有助於提升你在市場上看到的 Marlboro 整體品牌資產與強度。所以我們對 Cowboy Cut 真的非常興奮。這是一個很棒的產品,隨著這項產品的推進,你也會看到更廣泛的鋪貨分布。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andre Andon, Jefferies.

    Andre Andon,Jefferies。

  • Andrei Andon-Ionita - Equity Analyst

    Andrei Andon-Ionita - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, Billy, Sal, Mac. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Three from me, please. Number one, could you please tell us a bit more about that, though, about the factors that drove the improvement for Marlboro within the premium combustible segment?

    嗨,早安,Billy、Sal、Mac。非常感謝讓我提問。我這邊有三個問題。第一,能否請你們再多談一點:是哪些因素推動 Marlboro 在高端可燃品(premium combustible)區隔中的表現改善?

  • And then two questions on oral nicotine pouches, please. I know it's early days for on! PLUS. There's been a shipment benefit for Q1 volumes. But is there any color you could give us around the consumer, the early consumer offtake for the new product for on! PLUS? And perhaps finally, just a clarification, the six new flavors that you've submitted applications for with the FDA, are they also part of the Fast Track nicotine pouch pilot program? Thank you.

    接著是兩個關於口含尼古丁袋(oral nicotine pouches) 的問題。我知道 on! PLUS 還在很早期。第一季的出貨量也受惠於出貨節奏。但你們能否分享一些關於 on! PLUS 新產品的消費者端情況,例如早期消費者拉貨/銷售(offtake)的表現?最後再確認一下:你們向 FDA 提交申請的六種新口味,是否也屬於 Fast Track 尼古丁袋試點計畫的一部分?謝謝。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I'll try to unpack those three questions. If I miss any, please follow-up. I think when you think about the Marlboro brand within the premium segment, I think there are really two factors there. Marlboro is still the aspirational brand in the cigarette category. And so with the tools that we have in data analytics with revenue growth management, it allows us to, on a store-by-store basis, make it very competitive, but remain very profitable.

    好的,我試著把這三個問題拆開來回答。如果我漏了任何一題,請再追問。談到 Marlboro 在高端區隔的表現,我認為主要有兩個因素。Marlboro 仍然是香菸品類中具「向往性」(aspirational)的品牌。因此,結合我們在資料分析與營收成長管理(RGM)上的工具,我們能以逐店(store-by-store)的方式讓它非常有競爭力,同時維持很高的獲利能力。

  • And I think that's what's really driving the Marlboro growth and premium. I think when you think about all nicotine pouches early on, it is very early. You remember that we went national towards the end of March. And so, we're excited about that. But we know that flavors are going to play an important role in the future of the nicotine pouch category. And that ties into your third question about flavors and they are not part of the pilot program at this point, but this is why we believe that it's very easy for the FDA to go through the authorization process.

    我認為這正是推動 Marlboro 在高端區隔成長的關鍵。至於口含尼古丁袋的早期表現,確實還非常早。你也記得我們是在 3 月底左右才推向全國市場,所以我們對此感到興奮。但我們也知道,口味在未來的尼古丁袋品類中會扮演重要角色。這也連到你第三個關於口味的問題:目前它們並不屬於試點計畫的一部分,但這也是為什麼我們相信 FDA 很容易完成授權流程。

  • The science is the same on those pouches as what they've already authorized. It's removing a GRAS, which stands for in the FDA lingo. Generally recognized as safe. So you're moving -- removing one GRAS flavor and putting in a new GRAS flavor. and so, they've already reviewed the science on everything else related to the product. Their only focus would really be the flavors. And that's why we believe that it can be achieved within the 180-day statutory requirement.

    這些口含袋的科學基礎與 FDA 先前已授權的產品相同。差別在於更換一個 GRAS(在 FDA 用語中指 Generally recognized as safe,亦即「一般公認安全」)的口味。也就是把一個 GRAS 口味拿掉,換上一個新的 GRAS 口味。因此,他們其實已經審查過與產品其他部分相關的科學資料;他們唯一真正需要聚焦的會是口味。這也是為什麼我們相信可以在法定 180 天的要求內完成。

  • Andrei Andon-Ionita - Equity Analyst

    Andrei Andon-Ionita - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.

    Eric Serotta,Morgan Stanley。

  • Eric Serotta - Analyst

    Eric Serotta - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for taking the question. Can you give us a little bit of color of how you're thinking about the potential macro impact from the low-end consumer since the conflict began. We're now, call it eight weeks or so into it, a lot of noise with weak consumer confidence overall, but higher tax refunds.

    很好,謝謝讓我提問。自從衝突開始以來,現在大概已經八週左右,市場上有很多雜音:整體消費者信心偏弱,但退稅金額又較高。你們能否多分享一下,你們如何看待低端消費者可能帶來的宏觀影響?

  • What are you seeing? And I guess in past times of sharp spikes in gas prices. What has sort of been the typical lag based on your research for an impact on your takeaway? And then second question, you certainly seem, understandably more favorable about the e-vapor or illicit e-vapor enforcement.

    你們看到了什麼?另外,過去在汽油價格急劇上升的時期,根據你們的研究,通常會有多長的滯後期才會對你們的終端銷售/帶走量(takeaway)產生影響?第二個問題是,你們似乎(也可以理解)對電子霧化(e-vapor)或非法 e-vapor 的執法更為樂觀。

  • How is that impacting your thinking about your broader e-vapor strategy? For the past year or so you seem to be working behind the scenes on resolving the IP issues, but sort of not in a rush to get into, get back onto a market that, was clearly had its challenges. Is that evolving with the improved enforcement that you're, an improved performance of market that you're talking about? Thank you.

    這如何影響你們對更廣泛 e-vapor 策略的思考?過去一年左右,你們看起來一直在幕後處理 IP 問題,但並不急著重新進入一個明顯充滿挑戰的市場。隨著你們所提到的執法改善、以及市場表現改善,這個態度是否正在改變?謝謝。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I'll take us off with the macroeconomic and then I'll take e-vapor.

    好的,我先從宏觀經濟開始,然後再談 e-vapor。

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • I think you framed the macroeconomic situation quite well in your question, right? So later in the quarter, you did see a significant increase in gas prices. And obviously, that has an impact on discretionary spending that the consumer does have and they've been under pressure for quite a while.

    我認為你在問題中對宏觀情勢的描述很到位。到了本季後段,你確實看到汽油價格顯著上升。很明顯,這會影響消費者可支配支出,而消費者其實已經承受壓力一段時間了。

  • Just as everyday items continue to be at elevated prices. But there are some shorter-term tailwinds, I guess you would call it, related to some of the higher levels of tax refunds that we are seeing based on the data coming out of the IRS. So obviously, we have to pay close attention to that. You are seeing a growth in the discount category.

    同時,日常用品價格仍維持在高檔。但也有一些較短期的順風因素(你可以這麼稱呼),與我們從 IRS 資料看到的較高退稅水準有關。因此我們必須密切關注。你也確實看到折扣品類在成長。

  • Within the cigarette business or cigarette segment. And that is driven by the macroeconomic difficulties that the consumer us using the RGM, the revenue growth management data analytics and tool set that we do have. And that's why you see in stores where we can capture consumer purchases that may have gone to up the discount brands, and we can capture those purchases.

    在香菸業務或香菸區隔內,這是由消費者面臨的宏觀經濟困難所驅動。我們運用 RGM(營收成長管理)的資料分析與工具組,因此在某些門店,我們可以攔截原本可能流向折扣品牌的消費者購買,並把這些購買留在我們這邊。

  • In Basic and then we talked earlier about Cal Vet Cut being a competitively priced product that will engage with Marlboro consumers that are under economic pressure. So we believe we have the tools to manage through the situation, but obviously, we're going to pay close attention to the consumer's economic condition as the year progresses.

    例如在 Basic;另外我們先前也談到 Cal Vet Cut 是一個具競爭力定價的產品,能與承受經濟壓力的 Marlboro 消費者互動。因此我們相信我們有工具可以管理並度過這種情況,但很顯然,隨著今年推進,我們會密切關注消費者的經濟狀況。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And I think related to e-vapor, while we're just as excited as you are, some of the green shoots you're seeing in enforcement, I think it's important to still look at the context, the e-vapor category in total.

    至於 e-vapor,我們和你一樣對執法上看到的一些初步正向跡象(green shoots)感到振奮,但我認為仍然要把它放在 e-vapor 整體品類的脈絡下來看。

  • So it's very large, but it's still call it approximately 70% of the volume is illicit flavored disposables. And so it's still upside down in the marketplace. Now, we're excited. We're making significant progress on the ITC issue that you described related to the patent infringements. We feel good about that. We're excited to be able to bring that product back to the marketplace at the appropriate time, but we'll still do it in a disciplined fashion while the marketplace is still upside down.

    這個品類規模很大,但目前大約 70% 的量仍是非法的調味一次性產品(illicit flavored disposables)。所以市場結構仍然是失衡的。當然,我們很興奮。我們在你提到的 ITC 議題(與專利侵權相關)上正取得顯著進展,我們對此感覺良好。我們也期待在適當的時間把該產品帶回市場,但在市場仍失衡的情況下,我們仍會以紀律性的方式推進。

  • And that's, again, going back to our earlier point. It's why we're really pushing the FDA. They think about both enforcement but authorizations that product back so that we can keep those consumers in the e-vapor category with products that are authorized.

    而這也再次回到我們先前的觀點:這就是為什麼我們真的在推動 FDA——不只是執法,也要加快授權,讓產品能回到市場,如此我們才能用已獲授權的產品,把消費者留在 e-vapor 品類中。

  • Eric Serotta - Analyst

    Eric Serotta - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much. Congratulations, Billy, and best of luck, Sal. Thank you.

    很好,真的非常感謝。恭喜你,Billy,也祝 Sal 一切順利。謝謝。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Damian McNeela, Deutsche Bank.

    Damian McNeela,Deutsche Bank。

  • Damian McNeela - Analyst

    Damian McNeela - Analyst

  • Hey, morning, everybody. Just one question for me. I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that on! PLUS was getting allocated additional shelf space in the 100,000 or so stores that it's got listings in. Can you just sort of give an indication of where that shelf space is coming from? Are you winning it back off other nicotine patch brands or is it coming from traditional oil tobacco products, please?

    嗨,各位早安。我只有一個問題。我想在你們的事先準備講稿中,你們提到 on! PLUS 在大約 100,000 家已上架的門店中,正在獲得額外的貨架空間配置。你能否大概說明一下,這些貨架空間是從哪裡來的?是從其他尼古丁袋品牌那邊搶回來的,還是來自傳統口含菸草產品的空間?謝謝。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it's a good question. We feel very excited about what our sales force was able to achieve. You can think of that category primarily as its own category within the retail space and so that is achieving that outlook within the nicotine pouch space.

    是的,這是個好問題。我們對我們銷售團隊所能達成的成果感到非常振奮。你可以把那個品類主要視為零售通路中的一個獨立品類,因此在尼古丁袋品類中也正在實現那樣的展望。

  • Damian McNeela - Analyst

    Damian McNeela - Analyst

  • Yeah, okay. Thank you very much, and all the best for the future.

    好的,明白了。非常感謝,並祝未來一切順利。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Callum Elliott, Bernstein.

    Callum Elliott,Bernstein。

  • Callum Elliott - Analyst

    Callum Elliott - Analyst

  • Hi, hopefully you can hear me and just adding my congratulations on the well-deserved retirement, Billy. Best of luck with the charitable endeavors. My first question.

    嗨,希望你們聽得到我。我也要恭喜你,Billy,這次實至名歸的退休。也祝你在慈善事業上一切順利。我的第一個問題。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you very much. And yes, we can hear you loud and clear.

    非常感謝。是的,我們聽得很清楚。

  • Callum Elliott - Analyst

    Callum Elliott - Analyst

  • Perfect. So my first question is on. Your nicotine pouch strategy. One of your tobacco peers has been rolling out a nicotine pouch product under a legacy oral tobacco brand.

    太好了。那我的第一個問題是關於你們的尼古丁袋策略。你們的一家同業菸草公司,正在以一個傳統口含菸草品牌推出尼古丁袋產品。

  • So my question is, do you have any thoughts about maybe trying to do the same thing with Copenhagen or Skoal, or do you think that your initiatives with on! are sufficient to get the sort of the consumer response that you're hoping for?

    所以我的問題是,你們是否考慮過也用 Copenhagen 或 Skoal 來做同樣的事?還是你們認為 on! 的相關舉措已足以獲得你們所期望的消費者反應?

  • Then my second question is about Basic and its interaction with Marlboro. I think the data you've showed shows discount share gain of 240 basis points year on year in Q1 and Basic has also gained 240 basis points. So it seems like all of the discount sector share gain is coming from Basic.

    第二個問題是關於 Basic 以及它與 Marlboro 的互動。我想你們展示的數據顯示,第一季折扣品類市占率年增 240 個基點,而 Basic 也增加了 240 個基點。所以看起來折扣品類的市占成長全部都來自 Basic。

  • And as we all know, we sort of annualize the repositioning quite soon. So should we be expecting that discount share gains slow as a whole as Basic starts to slow and maybe Marlboro can start doing a bit better? Or would you expect other discount brands to start doing better once Basic annualizes the launch?

    而且如我們所知,這次重新定位很快就會進入年化比較。因此,我們是否應該預期,隨著 Basic 開始放緩,整體折扣品類的市占增長也會放慢,並且 Marlboro 可能開始表現得更好一些?或者你會預期,一旦 Basic 的上市進入年化比較後,其他折扣品牌會開始表現得更好?

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I'll take the first question and then pass it on to Sal for the Basic question. In the nicotine oil category, USSTC was the only smokeless company to have signed a master settlement agreement. So that prevents us from using those tobacco brands in a product that does not contain tobacco. So we feel very good about on and on! PLUS and the way it's positioned from an equity standpoint. I feel like we can compete very well in the nicotine pouch space.

    好的,我先回答第一個問題,然後把關於 Basic 的問題交給 Sal。在尼古丁口含袋品類方面,USSTC 是唯一一家簽署《總和解協議》(master settlement agreement)的無煙產品公司。因此,這限制我們不能把那些菸草品牌用在不含菸草的產品上。所以我們對 on 以及 on! PLUS,以及其在品牌資產定位上的方式感到非常有信心。我認為我們能在尼古丁袋市場中具備很強的競爭力。

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • And Callum, we're very pleased with Basics performance. Remember, Basics promotions were in limited retail distribution and it's really being driven, that distribution is being driven by the data analytics that we have. So that Basic is being promoted in stores that over-index discount.

    Callum,我們對 Basic 的表現非常滿意。請記得,Basic 的促銷是在有限的零售通路分銷中進行,而這主要是由我們的數據分析所驅動。因此,Basic 會在折扣品類占比偏高(over-index discount)的門店中進行促銷。

  • And that allows PM USA to capture consumer purchases that would have otherwise gone to other discount brands and not having an over-indexed impact on Marlboro. So that's why we believe you're seeing Marlboro continue to grow share in the premium.

    這讓 PM USA 能夠攔截原本可能流向其他折扣品牌的消費者購買,同時不會對 Marlboro 造成過度(over-indexed)的影響。這也是為什麼我們認為你看到 Marlboro 在高端(premium)

  • Category and performed quite well there. Basic is able to capture the discount share that it's been able to capture. So we feel really good with the strategy. It's really driven by data analytics, and it allows us to use the revenue growth management tools across PM USA's portfolio.

    品類中持續提升市占,且表現相當不錯。Basic 則能夠取得它所取得的折扣品類市占。因此我們對這個策略感到非常滿意。這確實是由數據分析所驅動,並且讓我們能在 PM USA 的產品組合中運用營收成長管理(revenue growth management)工具。

  • Callum Elliott - Analyst

    Callum Elliott - Analyst

  • Maybe I can just ask a follow-up, if that's okay, Sal. There's stronger than expected performance in Q1. Does that give you the scope possibly to sort of further extend distribution for Basic beyond the sort of the plateau that we seem to have originally found, given that you seem to have this sort of increased flexibility now within the 2026 guidance, or is that not something that we should be expecting?

    如果可以的話,Sal,我想追問一下。第一季表現強於預期。這是否讓你們有空間,可能把 Basic 的分銷進一步擴大到超出我們原先似乎找到的那個平台期(plateau)?考量到你們在 2026 年指引中似乎有更大的彈性,還是說這不是我們應該預期的方向?

  • Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

    Salvatore Mancuso - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Director

  • Well, I don't think this the strong performance is what drives that it really is the data. And if there's opportunistic retail locations to promote Basic and limit the impact on Marlboro, then PM USA will make that decision. But it's not driven by the financial performance necessarily is being driven by the data analytics.

    嗯,我不認為是強勁的表現驅動了這件事,真正驅動的是數據。如果有具機會性的零售據點可以推動 Basic,同時把對 Marlboro 的影響降到最低,那麼 PM USA 會做出那個決定。但這不一定是由財務表現所驅動,而是由數據分析所驅動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dave Ress, Richmond Times Dispatch.

    Dave Ress,《Richmond Times Dispatch》。

  • Dave Ress - Analyst

    Dave Ress - Analyst

  • Hi, I was hoping that you could talk a little bit more about the enforcement for the disposable vapes. You probably know that here in Virginia, the legislature has passed a new permitting and enforcement legislation for vape shops. And I'm wondering if this is something that brings enforcement to a new front? Is it something that might be significant in terms of other states being interested in this kind of thing? Have you been monitoring that?

    嗨,我希望你們能多談一點一次性電子煙的執法情況。你們可能知道,在維吉尼亞州,州議會已通過一項針對電子煙店的新許可與執法法案。我想知道,這是否會把執法推向一個新的戰線?就其他州是否會對這類作法感興趣而言,這會不會具有重要意義?你們有在追蹤嗎?

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We have been. I think when you think about it, all the efforts that we try to get both at the state level and the federal level are exactly what you're after, is making sure that the consumer and the vape category has authorized products, that the FDA, an independent party, has looked at what's in them and what comes from them. And so that's what we're driving.

    我們一直有在追蹤。我認為,當你這樣看時,我們在州層級與聯邦層級所推動的所有努力,正是你所關注的:確保消費者以及電子煙品類中的是已獲授權的產品,也就是 FDA 這個獨立機構已檢視其成分以及其所產生的影響。因此,這就是我們正在推動的方向。

  • I think when you look across the US, you see a number of tools available at the state level. You mentioned the permitting in Virginia. Other states have directories. It all is driven by how well they enforce it. Where we see enforcement take place, we see that the consumer goes back to their total consideration set. So we've seen some go to nicotine pounds. We've seen some come back to cigarettes. And then we've seen, in some states, I'll call it a gray area, where there are vape products that have applications in front of the FDA and are awaiting a decision, so they're able to stay in the marketplace. So again, that's why we've been really pushing the FDA to think about both enforcement but also making authorization more readily available.

    我想當你放眼全美,你會看到州層級有多種工具可用。你提到維吉尼亞州的許可制度。其他州有產品名錄(directories)。一切都取決於執法做得多好。在我們看到有執法的地方,我們看到消費者會回到他們的整體考量集合(total consideration set)。因此我們看到有些人轉向尼古丁袋;也看到有些人回到香菸。然後我們也看到,在某些州,我稱之為灰色地帶:有些電子煙產品已向 FDA 提交申請並等待決定,因此仍能留在市場上。所以,再次強調,這也是為什麼我們一直敦促 FDA 同時思考執法,以及讓授權更容易取得。

  • Dave Ress - Analyst

    Dave Ress - Analyst

  • Could the Virginia legislation be a model for other states?

    維吉尼亞州的立法會不會成為其他州的範本?

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we've seen that across states. Some states have used model legislation that drives more, if you will, enforcement and to have only authorized or attempt to have only authorized products in the marketplace, but it's really driven by how well it's enforced.

    是的,我們在各州都看到了。有些州採用了示範法案(model legislation),以推動更多的執法,並且只讓已獲授權的產品,或嘗試只讓已獲授權的產品留在市場上,但最終仍取決於執法的落實程度。

  • Dave Ress - Analyst

    Dave Ress - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Gifford - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There appears to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston for any closing remarks.

    目前看來沒有進一步的提問。我想把電話會議交回給 Mac Livingston,請他做結語。

  • Mac Livingston - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

    Mac Livingston - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

  • Thanks, everybody, for joining today's call. Please reach out to Investor Relations if you have further questions. Have a great day.

    感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。如有進一步問題,請聯繫投資人關係部門。祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您可隨時掛線。